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#post your predictions below
andrastes-strap-on · 1 year
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not a grey warden, champion, or herald of andraste, but a secret forth thing
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trivalentlinks · 1 year
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Saw (and reblogged) a Benfords Law post going around asking people to vote the first digit of the current number of votes, which is cool! There's something deterministic about it, though (explanation below cut).
So let's do a more chaotic (less predictable) version and see if it still works:
Please vote the first digit of the number of notes on the post directly above this one on your dash.
So if the previous post has 213 notes, vote 2. If there is no previous post or it has no notes, use the post below. If that also has no notes or would take too much scrolling, vote None.
Then please reblog so more people can see this and we can try to get a better distribution!
Explanation:
For the version where you vote the first digit of the number of votes on the current poll, it's deterministic (up to human/computer error) because:
Based on the total number of votes at the end, say N, you can predict (without Benford's Law) how many votes each digit should have, assuming everyone votes correctly, because you know how many numbers less than N have each digit as their first digit.
For example, when I voted and reblogged there were roughly 28000 votes, and the numbers for digits 3-9 were the same, which could have been predicted from the fact that the number of numbers <28000 that start with a 3 is the same as the number of them that start with a 4, etc: they are all 1,111:
For 3 it's 1000 (for numbers 3000-3999) + 100 (for numbers 300-399) + 10 (for numbers 30-39) + 1 (for the number 3), so 1111.
Same for those that start with 4: 1000 (for numbers 4000-4999) + 100 (for numbers 400-499) + 10 (for numbers 40-49) + 1 (for the number 3), so 1111.
The number for 1 would be the same 1,111 as above except with an extra 10,000 for numbers 10,000-20,000, so total 11,111.
And for 2 would be 81,111, for the same 1111 as before but plus 80,000 for 20,000-28,000 (where 28,000 is the total number of votes).
There would be some error due to people voting incorrectly, or timing issues (someone voting before seeing the page update from the previous person's vote), but the distribution would be mostly predictable.
(Though this is not exactly the right distribution, because in the poll they all basically had 6% and the calculation says it should be 4%; I wonder if a nontrivial number of people are accidentally clicking last digit instead?)
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the-adventures-of-dave · 10 months
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Around tumblr lately I’ve seen people with the opinion that not only are free roaming cats bad (correct) but also supervised cats in catios or on leashes (????). I assume it must stem from that “ecology of fear” post from a few months ago, but to me the sudden appearance of these kinds of posts just strikes me as odd. I’ve seen multiple posts like the below one in just this week.
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If your cat is contained to your yard/catio/the sidewalk, then it still allows for predator-free safe places in your neighbourhood for wildlife, and creates predictability for them too. That’s one of the reasons why hiking trails ask people to stay on the trail— so you (and your dog, horse, cat, etc) can safely enjoy nature while still giving it space. It is possible to exist outdoors in natural spaces like that while maintaining wildlife comfort. If it wasn’t possible to do that, dog-friendly or (even just hiking trails in general, since humans are predators too) simply wouldn’t exist.
The problem with free roaming cats is that they break boundaries between human area (ie. trail, back porch) and wildlife area (foliage, etc) and there is nowhere the wildlife can go to exist that is safe from predators.
Idk, this is just my opinion but I just think there can be more nuance to the outdoor/free roaming cat issue than “never let your cat step outside under any circumstance”.
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afeelgoodblog · 6 months
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The Best News of Last Week
🌍🌡️ - Climate Prophecy: The Forecast Is 100% Chance of 'Cool'
1. No cases of cancer caused by HPV in Norwegian 25-year olds, the first cohort to be mass vaccinated for HPV
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Last year there were zero cases of cervical cancer in the population that was vaccinated in 2009 against the HPV virus, which can cause the cancer in women. The HPV virus is extremely common, basically everyone comes into contact with one version or another of the virus in their lifetime.
The vaccine was given to girls only out of an abundance of caution, they were the most likely to contract cancer from the viruses, and because there was limited supply.
2. ‘Every square inch is covered in life’: the ageing oil rigs that became marine oases
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Built decades ago, California’s offshore oil platforms are home to a huge diversity of marine life. According to a 2014 study, the rigs were some of the most “productive” ocean habitats in the world, a term that refers to biomass – or number of fish and other creatures and how much space they take up – per unit area.
3. Vaccinations may have prevented almost 20 million COVID-19 deaths worldwide
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Vaccinations estimated to have averted 19.8 million COVID-19 deaths worldwide in their first year, according to the latest Imperial modelling study.
In the first year of the vaccination programme, 19.8 million out of a potential 31.4 million COVID-19 deaths were prevented worldwide according to estimates based on excess deaths from 185 countries and territories.
4. Global climate policy forecast predicts ‘well below 2°C’ Paris Agreement climate goals will be met
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They report only a 10% probability we exceed 2°C by 2050. Temperatures are expected to peak between 1.7°C and 1.8°C, which is consistent with the “well below 2°C” objective of the Paris Agreement in Art. 2.1c.
5. Young driver fatality rates have fallen sharply in the US, helped by education, technology
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Crash and fatality rates among drivers under 21 have fallen dramatically in the U.S. during the past 20 years.
Using data from 2002-2021, the report says that fatal crashes involving a young driver fell by 38%, while deaths of young drivers dropped even more, by about 45%.
6. A Virginia woman was feeling sad. Her doctor prescribed her a cat.
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7. Remote workers report saving $5,000 to $10,000 a year
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What value would American workers place on the privilege to work from home?
In a 2022 survey by FlexJobs, 45% of remote workers reported saving at least $5,000 a year. One in 5 reported saving $10,000 a year. The savings average out to about $6,000 a year. The poll reached 4,000 workers in July and August of last year.
Three years into the remote-work revolution, research increasingly suggests that telework is a commodity, a job descriptor worth thousands of dollars in potential savings and improved quality of life.
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That's it for this week :)
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Also don’t forget to reblog this post with your friends.
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Gig apps trap reverse centaurs in Skinner boxes
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Enshittification is the process by which digital platforms devour themselves: first they dangle goodies in front of end users. Once users are locked in, the goodies are taken away and dangled before business customers who supply goods to the users. Once those business customers are stuck on the platform, the goodies are clawed away and showered on the platform’s shareholders:
https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/21/potemkin-ai/#hey-guys
If you’d like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here’s a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2023/04/12/algorithmic-wage-discrimination/#fishers-of-men
Enshittification isn’t just another way of saying “fraud” or “price gouging” or “wage theft.” Enshittification is intrinsically digital, because moving all those goodies around requires the flexibility that only comes with a digital businesses. Jeff Bezos, grocer, can’t rapidly change the price of eggs at Whole Foods without an army of kids with pricing guns on roller-skates. Jeff Bezos, grocer, can change the price of eggs on Amazon Fresh just by twiddling a knob on the service’s back-end.
Twiddling is the key to enshittification: rapidly adjusting prices, conditions and offers. As with any shell game, the quickness of the hand deceives the eye. Tech monopolists aren’t smarter than the Gilded Age sociopaths who monopolized rail or coal — they use the same tricks as those monsters of history, but they do them faster and with computers:
https://doctorow.medium.com/twiddler-1b5c9690cce6
If Rockefeller wanted to crush a freight company, he couldn’t just click a mouse and lay down a pipeline that ran on the same route, and then click another mouse to make it go away when he was done. When Bezos wants to bankrupt Diapers.com — a company that refused to sell itself to Amazon — he just moved a slider so that diapers on Amazon were being sold below cost. Amazon lost $100m over three months, diapers.com went bankrupt, and every investor learned that competing with Amazon was a losing bet:
https://slate.com/technology/2013/10/amazon-book-how-jeff-bezos-went-thermonuclear-on-diapers-com.html
That’s the power of twiddling — but twiddling cuts both ways. The same flexibility that digital businesses enjoy is hypothetically available to workers and users. The airlines pioneered twiddling ticket prices, and that naturally gave rise to countertwiddling, in the form of comparison shopping sites that scraped the airlines’ sites to predict when tickets would be cheapest:
https://pluralistic.net/2023/02/27/knob-jockeys/#bros-be-twiddlin
The airlines — like all abusive businesses — refused to tolerate this. They were allowed to touch their knobs as much as they wanted — indeed, they couldn’t stop touching those knobs — but when we tried to twiddle back, that was “felony contempt of business model,” and the airlines sued:
https://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/30/airline-sues-man-for-founding-a-cheap-flights-website.html
And sued:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/business/southwest-airlines-lawsuit-prices.html
Platforms don’t just hate it when end-users twiddle back — if anything they are even more aggressive when their business-users dare to twiddle. Take Para, an app that Doordash drivers used to get a peek at the wages offered for jobs before they accepted them — something that Doordash hid from its workers. Doordash ruthlessly attacked Para, saying that by letting drivers know how much they’d earn before they did the work, Para was violating the law:
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2021/08/tech-rights-are-workers-rights-doordash-edition
Which law? Well, take your pick. The modern meaning of “IP” is “any law that lets me use the law to control my competitors, competition or customers.” Platforms use a mix of anticircumvention law, patent, copyright, contract, cybersecurity and other legal systems to weave together a thicket of rules that allow them to shut down rivals for their Felony Contempt of Business Model:
https://locusmag.com/2020/09/cory-doctorow-ip/
Enshittification relies on unlimited twiddling (by platforms), and a general prohibition on countertwiddling (by platform users). Enshittification is a form of fishing, in which bait is dangled before different groups of users and then nimbly withdrawn when they lunge for it. Twiddling puts the suppleness into the enshittifier’s fishing-rod, and a ban on countertwiddling weighs down platform users so they’re always a bit too slow to catch the bait.
Nowhere do we see twiddling’s impact more than in the “gig economy,” where workers are misclassified as independent contractors and put to work for an app that scripts their every move to the finest degree. When an app is your boss, you work for an employer who docks your pay for violating rules that you aren’t allowed to know — and where your attempts to learn those rules are constantly frustrated by the endless back-end twiddling that changes the rules faster than you can learn them.
As with every question of technology, the issue isn’t twiddling per se — it’s who does the twiddling and who gets twiddled. A worker armed with digital tools can play gig work employers off each other and force them to bid up the price of their labor; they can form co-ops with other workers that auto-refuse jobs that don’t pay enough, and use digital tools to organize to shift power from bosses to workers:
https://pluralistic.net/2022/12/02/not-what-it-does/#who-it-does-it-to
Take “reverse centaurs.” In AI research, a “centaur” is a human assisted by a machine that does more than either could do on their own. For example, a chess master and a chess program can play a better game together than either could play separately. A reverse centaur is a machine assisted by a human, where the machine is in charge and the human is a meat-puppet.
Think of Amazon warehouse workers wearing haptic location-aware wristbands that buzz at them continuously dictating where their hands must be; or Amazon drivers whose eye-movements are continuously tracked in order to penalize drivers who look in the “wrong” direction:
https://pluralistic.net/2021/02/17/reverse-centaur/#reverse-centaur
The difference between a centaur and a reverse centaur is the difference between a machine that makes your life better and a machine that makes your life worse so that your boss gets richer. Reverse centaurism is the 21st Century’s answer to Taylorism, the pseudoscience that saw white-coated “experts” subject workers to humiliating choreography down to the smallest movement of your fingertip:
https://pluralistic.net/2022/08/21/great-taylors-ghost/#solidarity-or-bust
While reverse centaurism was born in warehouses and other company-owned facilities, gig work let it make the leap into workers’ homes and cars. The 21st century has seen a return to the cottage industry — a form of production that once saw workers labor far from their bosses and thus beyond their control — but shriven of the autonomy and dignity that working from home once afforded:
https://doctorow.medium.com/gig-work-is-the-opposite-of-steampunk-463e2730ef0d
The rise and rise of bossware — which allows for remote surveillance of workers in their homes and cars — has turned “work from home” into “live at work.” Reverse centaurs can now be chickenized — a term from labor economics that describes how poultry farmers, who sell their birds to one of three vast poultry processors who have divided up the country like the Pope dividing up the “New World,” are uniquely exploited:
https://onezero.medium.com/revenge-of-the-chickenized-reverse-centaurs-b2e8d5cda826
A chickenized reverse centaur has it rough: they must pay for the machines they use to make money for their bosses, they must obey the orders of the app that controls their work, and they are denied any of the protections that a traditional worker might enjoy, even as they are prohibited from deploying digital self-help measures that let them twiddle back to bargain for a better wage.
All of this sets the stage for a phenomenon called algorithmic wage discrimination, in which two workers doing the same job under the same conditions will see radically different payouts for that work. These payouts are continuously tweaked in the background by an algorithm that tries to predict the minimum sum a worker will accept to remain available without payment, to ensure sufficient workers to pick up jobs as they arise.
This phenomenon — and proposed policy and labor solutions to it — is expertly analyzed in “On Algorithmic Wage Discrimination,” a superb paper by UC Law San Franciscos Veena Dubal:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4331080
Dubal uses empirical data and enthnographic accounts from Uber drivers and other gig workers to explain how endless, self-directed twiddling allows gig companies pay workers less and pay themselves more. As @[email protected] explains in his LA Times article on Dubal’s research, the goal of the payment algorithm is to guess how often a given driver needs to receive fair compensation in order to keep them driving when the payments are unfair:
https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2023-04-11/algorithmic-wage-discrimination
The algorithm combines nonconsensual dossiers compiled on individual drivers with population-scale data to seek an equilibrium between keeping drivers waiting, unpaid, for a job; and how much a driver needs to be paid for an individual job, in order to keep that driver from clocking out and doing something else. @ Here’s how that works. Sergio Avedian, a writer for The Rideshare Guy, ran an experiment with two brothers who both drove for Uber; one drove a Tesla and drove intermittently, the other brother rented a hybrid sedan and drove frequently. Sitting side-by-side with the brothers, Avedian showed how the brother with the Tesla was offered more for every trip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UADTiL3S67I
Uber wants to lure intermittent drivers into becoming frequent drivers. Uber doesn’t pay for an oversupply of drivers, because it only pays drivers when they have a passenger in the car. Having drivers on call — but idle — is a way for Uber to shift the cost of maintaining a capacity cushion to its workers.
What’s more, what Uber charges customers is not based on how much it pays its workers. As Uber’s head of product explained: Uber uses “machine-learning techniques to estimate how much groups of customers are willing to shell out for a ride. Uber calculates riders’ propensity for paying a higher price for a particular route at a certain time of day. For instance, someone traveling from a wealthy neighborhood to another tony spot might be asked to pay more than another person heading to a poorer part of town, even if demand, traffic and distance are the same.”
https://qz.com/990131/uber-is-practicing-price-discrimination-economists-say-that-might-not-be-a-bad-thing/
Uber has historically described its business a pure supply-and-demand matching system, where a rush of demand for rides triggers surge pricing, which lures out drivers, which takes care of the demand. That’s not how it works today, and it’s unclear if it ever worked that way. Today, a driver who consults the rider version of the Uber app before accepting a job — to compare how much the rider is paying to how much they stand to earn — is booted off the app and denied further journeys.
Surging, instead, has become just another way to twiddle drivers. One of Dubal’s subjects, Derrick, describes how Uber uses fake surges to lure drivers to airports: “You go to the airport, once the lot get kind of full, then the surge go away.” Other drivers describe how they use groupchats to call out fake surges: “I’m in the Marina. It’s dead. Fake surge.”
That’s pure twiddling. Twiddling turns gamification into gamblification, where your labor buys you a spin on a roulette wheel in a rigged casino. As a driver called Melissa, who had doubled down on her availability to earn a $100 bonus awarded for clocking a certain number of rides, told Dubal, “When you get close to the bonus, the rides start trickling in more slowly…. And it makes sense. It’s really the type of shit that they can do when it’s okay to have a surplus labor force that is just sitting there that they don’t have to pay for.”
Wherever you find reverse-centaurs, you get this kind of gamblification, where the rules are twiddled continuously to make sure that the house always wins. As a contract driver Amazon reverse centaur told Lauren Gurley for Motherboard, “Amazon uses these cameras allegedly to make sure they have a safer driving workforce, but they’re actually using them not to pay delivery companies”:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/88npjv/amazons-ai-cameras-are-punishing-drivers-for-mistakes-they-didnt-make
Algorithmic wage discrimination is the robot overlord of our nightmares: its job is to relentlessly quest for vulnerabilities and exploit them. Drivers divide themselves into “ants” (drivers who take every job) and “pickers” (drivers who cherry-pick high-paying jobs). The algorithm’s job is ensuring that pickers get the plum assignments, not the ants, in the hopes of converting those pickers to app-dependent ants.
In my work on enshittification, I call this the “giant teddy bear” gambit. At every county fair, you’ll always spot some poor jerk carrying around a giant teddy-bear they “won” on the midway. But they didn’t win it — not by getting three balls in the peach-basket. Rather, the carny running the rigged game either chose not to operate the “scissor” that kicks balls out of the basket. Or, if the game is “honest” (that is, merely impossible to win, rather than gimmicked), the operator will make a too-good-to-refuse offer: “Get one ball in and I’ll give you this keychain. Win two keychains and I’ll let you trade them for this giant teddy bear.”
Carnies aren’t in the business of giving away giant teddy bears — rather, the gambit is an investment. Giving a mark a giant teddy bear to carry around the midway all day acts as a convincer, luring other marks to try to land three balls in the basket and win their own teddy bear.
In the same way, platforms like Uber distribute giant teddy bears to pickers, as a way of keeping the ants scurrying from job to job, and as a way of convincing the pickers to give up whatever work allows them to discriminate among Uber’s offers and hold out for the plum deals, whereupon then can be transmogrified into ants themselves.
Dubal describes the experience of Adil, a Syrian refugee who drives for Uber in the Bay Area. His colleagues are pickers, and showed him screenshots of how much they earned. Determined to get a share of that money, Adil became a model ant, driving two hours to San Francisco, driving three days straight, napping in his car, spending only one day per week with his family. The algorithm noticed that Adil needed the work, so it paid him less.
Adil responded the way the system predicted he would, by driving even more: “My friends they make it, so I keep going, maybe I can figure it out. It’s unsecure, and I don’t know how people they do it. I don’t know how I am doing it, but I have to. I mean, I don’t find another option. In a minute, if I find something else, oh man, I will be out immediately. I am a very patient person, that’s why I can continue.”
Another driver, Diego, told Dubal about how the winners of the giant teddy bears fell into the trap of thinking that they were “good at the app”: “Any time there’s some big shot getting high pay outs, they always shame everyone else and say you don’t know how to use the app. I think there’s secret PR campaigns going on that gives targeted payouts to select workers, and they just think it’s all them.”
That’s the power of twiddling: by hoarding all the flexibility offered by digital tools, the management at platforms can become centaurs, able to string along thousands of workers, while the workers are reverse-centaurs, puppeteered by the apps.
As the example of Adil shows, the algorithm doesn’t need to be very sophisticated in order to figure out which workers it can underpay. The system automates the kind of racial and gender discrimination that is formally illegal, but which is masked by the smokescreen of digitization. An employer who systematically paid women less than men, or Black people less than white people, would be liable to criminal and civil sanctions. But if an algorithm simply notices that people who have fewer job prospects drive more and will thus accept lower wages, that’s just “optimization,” not racism or sexism.
This is the key to understanding the AI hype bubble: when ghouls from multinational banks predict 13 trillion dollar markets for “AI,” what they mean is that digital tools will speed up the twiddling and other wage-suppression techniques to transfer $13T in value from workers and consumers to shareholders.
The American business lobby is relentlessly focused on the goal of reducing wages. That’s the force behind “free trade,” “right to work,” and other codewords for “paying workers less,” including “gig work.” Tech workers long saw themselves as above this fray, immune to labor exploitation because they worked for a noble profession that took care of its own.
But the epidemic of mass tech-worker layoffs, following on the heels of massive stock buybacks, has demonstrated that tech bosses are just like any other boss: willing to pay as little as they can get away with, and no more. Tech bosses are so comfortable with their market dominance and the lock-in of their customers that they are happy to turn out hundreds of thousands of skilled workers, convinced that the twiddling systems they’ve built are the kinds of self-licking ice-cream cones that are so simple even a manager can use them — no morlocks required.
The tech worker layoffs are best understood as an all-out war on tech worker morale, because that morale is the source of tech workers’ confidence and thus their demands for a larger share of the value generated by their labor. The current tech layoff template is very different from previous tech layoffs: today’s layoffs are taking place over a period of months, long after they are announced, and laid off tech worker is likely to be offered a months of paid post-layoff work, rather than severance. This means that tech workplaces are now haunted by the walking dead, workers who have been laid off but need to come into the office for months, even as the threat of layoffs looms over the heads of the workers who remain. As an old friend, recently laid off from Microsoft after decades of service, wrote to me, this is “a new arrow in the quiver of bringing tech workers to heel and ensuring that we’re properly thankful for the jobs we have (had?).”
Dubal is interested in more than analysis, she’s interested in action. She looks at the tactics already deployed by gig workers, who have not taken all this abuse lying down. Workers in the UK and EU organized through Worker Info Exchange and the App Drivers and Couriers Union have used the GDPR (the EU’s privacy law) to demand “algorithmic transparency,” as well as access to their data. In California, drivers hope to use similar provisions in the CCPA (a state privacy law) to do the same.
These efforts have borne fruit. When Cornell economists, led by Louis Hyman, published research (paid for by Uber) claiming that Uber drivers earned an average of $23/hour, it was data from these efforts that revealed the true average Uber driver’s wage was $9.74. Subsequent research in California found that Uber drivers’ wage fell to $6.22/hour after the passage of Prop 22, a worker misclassification law that gig companies spent $225m to pass, only to have the law struck down because of a careless drafting error:
https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2021-08-23/proposition-22-lyft-uber-decision-essential-california
But Dubal is skeptical that data-coops and transparency will achieve transformative change and build real worker power. Knowing how the algorithm works is useful, but it doesn’t mean you can do anything about it, not least because the platform owners can keep touching their knobs, twiddling the payout schedule on their rigged slot-machines.
Data co-ops start from the proposition that “data extraction is an inevitable form of labor for which workers should be remunerated.” It makes on-the-job surveillance acceptable, provided that workers are compensated for the spying. But co-ops aren’t unions, and they don’t have the power to bargain for a fair price for that data, and coops themselves lack the vast resources — “to store, clean, and understand” — data.
Co-ops are also badly situated to understand the true value of the data that is extracted from their members: “Workers cannot know whether the data collected will, at the population level, violate the civil rights of others or amplifies their own social oppression.”
Instead, Dubal wants an outright, nonwaivable prohibition on algorithmic wage discrimination. Just make it illegal. If firms cannot use gambling mechanisms to control worker behavior through variable pay systems, they will have to find ways to maintain flexible workforces while paying their workforce predictable wages under an employment model. If a firm cannot manage wages through digitally-determined variable pay systems, then the firm is less likely to employ algorithmic management.”
In other words, rather than using market mechanisms too constrain platform twiddling, Dubal just wants to make certain kinds of twiddling illegal. This is a growing trend in legal scholarship. For example, the economist Ramsi Woodcock has proposed a ban on surge pricing as a per se violation of Section 1 of the Sherman Act:
https://ilr.law.uiowa.edu/print/volume-105-issue-4/the-efficient-queue-and-the-case-against-dynamic-pricing
Similarly, Dubal proposes that algorithmic wage discrimination violates another antitrust law: the Robinson-Patman Act, which “bans sellers from charging competing buyers different prices for the same commodity. Robinson-Patman enforcement was effectively halted under Reagan, kicking off a host of pathologies, like the rise of Walmart:
https://pluralistic.net/2023/03/27/walmarts-jackals/#cheater-sizes
I really liked Dubal’s legal reasoning and argument, and to it I would add a call to reinvigorate countertwiddling: reforming laws that get in the way of workers who want to reverse-engineer, spoof, and control the apps that currently control them. Adversarial interoperability (AKA competitive compatibility or comcom) is key tool for building worker power in an era of digital Taylorism:
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2019/10/adversarial-interoperability
To see how that works, look to other jursidictions where workers have leapfrogged their European and American cousins, such as Indonesia, where gig workers and toolsmiths collaborate to make a whole suite of “tuyul apps,” which let them override the apps that gig companies expect them to use.
https://pluralistic.net/2021/07/08/tuyul-apps/#gojek
For example, ride-hailing companies won’t assign a train-station pickup to a driver unless they’re circling the station — which is incredibly dangerous during the congested moments after a train arrives. A tuyul app lets a driver park nearby and then spoof their phone’s GPS fix to the ridehailing company so that they appear to be right out front of the station.
In an ideal world, those workers would have a union, and be able to dictate the app’s functionality to their bosses. But workers shouldn’t have to wait for an ideal world: they don’t just need jam tomorrow — they need jam today. Tuyul apps, and apps like Para, which allow workers to extract more money under better working conditions, are a prelude to unionization and employer regulation, not a substitute for it.
Employers will not give workers one iota more power than they have to. Just look at the asymmetry between the regulation of union employees versus union busters. Under US law, employees of a union need to account for every single hour they work, every mile they drive, every location they visit, in public filings. Meanwhile, the union-busting industry — far larger and richer than unions — operate under a cloak of total secrecy, Workers aren’t even told which union busters their employers have hired — let alone get an accounting of how those union busters spend money, or how many of them are working undercover, pretending to be workers in order to sabotage the union.
Twiddling will only get an employer so far. Twiddling — like all “AI” — is based on analyzing the past to predict the future. The heuristics an algorithm creates to lure workers into their cars can’t account for rapid changes in the wider world, which is why companies who relied on “AI” scheduling apps (for example, to prevent their employees from logging enough hours to be entitled to benefits) were caught flatfooted by the Great Resignation.
Workers suddenly found themselves with bargaining power thanks to the departure of millions of workers — a mix of early retirees and workers who were killed or permanently disabled by covid — and they used that shortage to demand a larger share of the fruits of their labor. The outraged howls of the capital class at this development were telling: these companies are operated by the kinds of “capitalists” that MLK once identified, who want “socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the poor.”
https://twitter.com/KaseyKlimes/status/821836823022354432/
There's only 5 days left in the Kickstarter campaign for the audiobook of my next novel, a post-cyberpunk anti-finance finance thriller about Silicon Valley scams called Red Team Blues. Amazon's Audible refuses to carry my audiobooks because they're DRM free, but crowdfunding makes them possible.
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[Image ID: A complex mandala of knobs from a modular synth. In the foreground, limned in a blue electric halo, is a man in a hi-viz vest with the head of a horse. The horse's eyes have been replaced with the sinister red eyes of HAL9000 from Kubrick's '2001: A Space Odyssey.'"]
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grnherbs · 7 months
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the sweetest goodbye.
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mdni, eighteen plus only.
there's content in this fic which may be upsetting to some so content warnings are as followed; darkfic, stalking, obsession, non-con, voyeurism, dead dove; do not eat, drugging, cumplay, unconcious reader, non-con photos, creepiness, ooc leon kennedy
slick cum drips over the edge of his plush, yet somehow course knuckles, years of heavy work evident upon them. he watches you through the high apexed window and fucks into his aforementioned hand. the carnal grunt that leaves his lips as he watches your own pointer slip between the soft lips of your soaked and probably sweet pussy is near feral and he scoffs, the tear in his eyes one of pure disgust and shame for himself; but he’s fucked if he even imagines for one second he could stop. 
and for a second time, a whimper escapes his lips and he presses his ear against the wooden front door, if he turns his head to the left, ear flushed against it, he can vaguely hear your own whimpers reverberating through the oak, but barely, it’s not enough and he edges himself post orgasm. the mutual masturbation between the thick walls and double glazed windows is too much and simultaneously not enough for him. 
his cock throbs in his hand, almost like if he doesn’t fuck you, he’ll burn up indefinitely. it was sorely pathetic to come back night after night, hopping on various transports to spend a few hours of pleasure with you. but, you were so predictable, he had your schedule drilled into his head by now.
the eight am work calls, midday shopping, friends and then home to fuck your own cunt day after day. it was kind of cute and the predictability had led to him roaming your rooms when you weren’t around, the thrill of perhaps being caught as he cum’s into a pair of your used panties or when he ground his dick down into the very pillow he’d watched you orgasm on many, many nights.
the hair on the back of leons neck stands on edge as he looks down at his weeping cock once again this evening… “talk about predictable,” he mumbles to himself before fear of missing the show overcomes him and he whips his head back up in time to watch your eyes roll back into your head, a choked chuckle coming from his lips, mentally berating himself for forgetting to film you once again.
he’s been watching you for months now, a shameful amount of time had passed since you locked eyes at the grocery store you worked at, some organic non chain, where a brown apron cinched itself around your waist, ass perked up below it in some god willed sweatpants that seemed to hug you in all the desirable places. 
leon hadn’t meant to follow you home of course but the smell of your fresh flowery perfume had him wafting through the air like a cartoon character to a pie. he’d climbed the fire escape for the first time that night and was delightfully greeted with a similar sight to the private show he was receiving this evening.
he hadn’t meant to watch.. to perv, for want of a better word. but fuck, the cherry pie between your legs was truly hypnotising, like a snake being charmed by music or a mere man being bought in by some supernatural factor. the delicate parts of you were all he had wanted and more. he remembered the way you laughed and brushed his hand whilst helping him to pack the brown paper bags and it was another reminder of how rough his hands really were, whilst yours skimmed past like butter.
how he’d embarrassed himself when he read your name tag aloud and watched you stare at him puzzled for it before realisation passed through your silky eyes. and then, he’d come back the second night after painting your window with his cum, and you’d failed to notice that even now, the stain is still there. blushing, heating up his cheeks slightly, getting flashes of how insane this really was. how crazy it had been to follow you home and continue night after night to drip cum on your fire escape patio.
he pulls the used panties out of his back pocket again and held them up to his nose, eyes closed as he inhales, hips jutting out pre-emptively in excitement, but he pulls his pants back up as he watches you settle into bed, sleep shorts discarded for a lace thong and some oversized t shirt he hasn’t seen yet.
and now. he waits. one thing he knows for sure is how much of a heavy sleeper you were and the brush of the tips of your favourite cups with some medicine was enough to kick start yawns and desperation for rest. leon’s thoughts are calculated, this has all been planned and tonight, he plans to fuck you for the first time. he smiles, our first time. and he thinks it a shame you won’t be able to remember it but he’ll make it up to you.
climbing through the latched window; (he really has to teach you to be more careful) excitement laces his bones. his hands shake as he peels the cover away from your bare shoulders, dropping to his knees and burying his nose in your neck, he’s waited so long to touch you, actually feel you properly. his hand finds the hem of your shirt, pressing a hand on your belly beneath it, heart beating feverishly and he flicks his eyes up to your face once more before fully planting it, feeling his cock weep at being this near to you.
his free hand moves down to palm himself gently and he continues to nuzzle into your nape and take in all your undernotes. the hand resting on your belly slithers down towards the top of your lace panties, a shy finger making its way under the band, resting atop the groomed hair which lays there, his eyes roll back at the softness there, how were you so soft everywhere?
he pulls your panties down more, finger finding your still wet clit, after remnants of your playtime. he fully removes your underwear now, balling them up by your ankles and leaving them there, trying desperately not to cum right in his pants there and then. 
leon knows his time is running out but he’s trying his hardest to savour every moment possible. and against his own shallow will he’s pulling his pants and boxers down, turning you over and shoving his cock into your tight cunt, biting his lip so hard it bleeds, legs faltering slightly at how tight and delectable you truly felt, choking on a moan once more. fuck this, he thinks to himself and ruts his hips back and forth, the way your cunt holds him has him seeing stars. 
“ah fuck, shit, take that, take it baby, you’re so fucking sexy” he moans into your neck, losing any restraint or semblance of restraint he ever had, completely lost in the ecstasy of fucking his girl. even if you had no idea you were his girl. he had to admit he was reaching his edge much quicker than he would have liked to but, he had years of you to come and he pulls out before he reaches his high, splattering his thick cum over your back and shoulders, pornographic moan leaving his chapped lips.
he pulls away, pulling his pants up quickly and admiring his damage properly this time, before shifting his phone out his pocket, leaning down to kiss your covered cheek. “smile honey,” he teases your unconscious body, smirking and snapping a photo before he slinks back out of your room, softly closing the door and starting his commute back home. “see you tomorrow.” he says to the wind.
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beemovieerotica · 15 days
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transphobes & conservatives throw around the "80% of trans children desist" statistic, and it comes from the average of a few quantitative studies that did produce those numbers
and they're relying on people to not have the knowledge to actually dig into these things, analyze the statistics, and question the methodologies in a scientific way
if you're curious at all how to debate these claims when people bring it up, i've summarized a meta-review below:
the biggest, most glaring issue of these studies is sample size and participant selection -- Baer Karrington, MD opened up these papers and found that one of the 4 studies (yes, the 80% number comes from the average of 4 studies, as of 2022) had identified nearly 300 eligible participants and then selected 132 of them, and we don't know why.
it's normal to screen out participants for psych & medical studies for any number of reasons, but you have to be completely transparent about why you're excluding them - and the researchers never told us. we can't know if you deliberately or subconsciously chose people who would confirm your hypothesis, which calls into question the data you collected.
another study was unable to contact 24 of the original participants out of 77, and then automatically classified the uncontactable participants as desisters. this isn't good science. i'm hesitant to even call it science.
the third study didn't list how many participants were included, but the assumption is that it was 10 people.
the fourth study had 25.
and across all of this research into desistance, including dozens of non-quantitative studies, case studies, and interviews, the researchers give us different definitions of desistance
(wouldn't the most important part of a cohesive argument against childhood gender affirming care be a mutually understood definition of desistance)
included under the definitions of desisters are:
adults who decide to stop HRT for any reason. this includes children who underwent the puberty of their choice and then ceased medical intervention in adulthood, without ascertaining if the reason was that they were satisfied with their body post-treatment, or if they had or intended to de-transition back to a body reflecting their birth sex
people who may have initially begun as binary transgender but settled on a non-binary or gender expansive identity. one former trans woman is identified in the research as now going by they/them and ceased HRT, and the studies do not reach a consensus on whether non-binary identities are included in the transgender non-desisting category, or if it is considered desistance
children for whom medical transitioning is stopped at any point - with obvious difficulties around determining whether was initiated by parents or truly the child's wishes
people who never received medical intervention and no longer experience gender dysphoria in adulthood, regardless of whether they have socially transitioned, changed their name, or engaged in non-medical affirmations of identity
children who decide not to medically transition. yes, that's it. they have desisted by virtue of not seeking medical intervention for the way that they conceive of their identity
and the issue with qualitative studies is that doctors are specifically reporting on people who have come to them seeking their help, and while their stories are important, and desistance does happen, you cannot draw actionable statistics from a self-selecting pool of people
the bottom line is that we have a double digit number of subjects across four questionable quantitative studies that gives us the repeatedly quoted 80%, and this is supposed to predict how several million children around the world will operate - and that's not how science works
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sas-soulwriter · 7 months
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Hello , here are some really basic writing tips.
Intriguing Openings: Start with a bang! Drop your readers into the middle of action or create a mystery that begs to be solved. Make them curious from the first sentence.
Character Backstories: Dive deep into your characters' pasts. Share their quirks, secrets, and defining moments. Readers love discovering what makes characters tick.
Sensory Descriptions: Paint a vivid picture using all five senses. Describe the smell of freshly baked cookies, the feel of a soft summer breeze, or the taste of a sour lemon.
Plot Twists: Keep your readers on their toes with unexpected plot twists. Surprise them by turning a seemingly predictable story into something extraordinary.
Cliffhangers: Leave your audience hanging at the end of a chapter or post. A well-placed cliffhanger will have them eagerly awaiting the next installment.
Metaphors and Similes: Add color to your writing with creative comparisons. For example, "Her smile was as bright as a thousand suns," adds a vivid and poetic touch.
Character Relationships: Explore complex dynamics between characters. Highlight their conflicts, alliances, and the evolution of their relationships throughout the story.
Symbolism: Incorporate symbols or motifs that carry deeper meaning. They can enhance the overall theme and give readers something to ponder.
Narrative Voice: Experiment with different narrative voices, such as first-person, third-person limited, or even second-person, to find the one that suits your story best.
Foreshadowing Mysteries: Drop subtle hints and clues early in the story that will become crucial later on. Readers love piecing together mysteries.
Unreliable Narrators: Consider using an unreliable narrator to keep readers guessing. They might misinterpret events or hide critical information.
Flashbacks as Puzzle Pieces: Use flashbacks strategically to reveal key aspects of the story or characters. Make them fit together like a jigsaw puzzle.
Dialect and Dialogue: Give characters distinct voices through their speech patterns and accents. Engaging dialogue can showcase personality and culture.
Emotional Rollercoasters: Take readers on an emotional journey. Make them laugh, cry, and experience every emotion alongside your characters.
Settings with Personality: Make the setting almost like another character. Show how it impacts the characters and the story's mood.
Evoke Empathy: Share characters' vulnerabilities, fears, and desires. Readers relate to flawed, authentic characters with whom they can empathize. Let them fail.
Experiment with Structure: Play with non-linear timelines, multiple perspectives, or fragmented narratives. Challenge traditional storytelling conventions.
Clever Wordplay: Incorporate puns, wordplay, or clever language usage to add humor and depth to your writing.
Cinematic Scenes: Write scenes that readers can visualize as if they were watching a movie. Use dynamic action and vivid descriptions.
Leave Room for Imagination: Don't spell everything out. Allow readers to use their imaginations to fill in some blanks.
Remember that storytelling is an art, and there's no one-size-fits-all approach. You can use these techniques to improve your unique style and the story you want to tell. Most importantly, have fun writing.
And remember to drink enough water!
If you want to have more of this , than click below and follow me.
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niqhtlord01 · 30 days
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Humans are weird: Where Heroes Flew
When Florelia had gone to work today she had expected it to be a day like any other. She’d man her post in orbital control, direct cargo traffic from the spaceport on the surface of the planet to the orbital lanes in the upper atmosphere, and then head to her quarters for the night and binge some trans-system entertainment. She was hoping to catch some of the Dorgan Finals being played out on the surface. The matches had drawn in close to a billion offworlders to the event and was the largest gathering seen on Zenbara in decades.
She was just about to get up for her designated lunch break when she noticed something odd on her tracking monitor. One of the inbound ships was bypassing the waiting que for reentry and was attempting to skip ahead of the waiting ships for reentry.
Putting her headset back on, Florelia flipped through the communication channels until she had the channel for the marked ship.
“Inbound vessel DCN4, return to your position in que.” She transmitted.
No response.
“Inbound vessel DCN4, this is orbital control; return to your position in que immediately.”
Florelia wondered if the ships communicator was broken, but before she could call up an engineer to confirm the inbound vessel suddenly increased speed and began blowing past the que of waiting ships.
“DCN4 cut engines and respond immediately, this is your final warning.”
“You were given many warnings,” a strange voice came back, “and now we are the culmination of all your sins. We are the children of Nu’n and in his name we shall punish the nonbelievers and cleanse them from this universe.”
As the voice continued delivering their speech Florelia ran a scan of DCN4 to confirm its cargo. When the scan came back her eyes went wide and she slammed her fist into the panic button built into her console. Sirens began blaring as her supervisor came over as Florelia opened a direct line to orbital security.
“Security, apprehend ship DCN4 now!” Florelia shouted into her transmitter.
“What’s wrong?” her supervisor asked as he came up to her finally. Florelia turned to let him see her screen.
“I believe DCN4 is under the control of terrorist elements and is loaded with over 900 thousand tons of Genthi explosives.”
No sooner had the words left her mouth did her supervisor tap his com piece in his ear and shout, “Security move your asses now! Grab DCN4 and bring it to a halt.”
Entering in his command codes he then addressed the entire line of waiting ships still in que.
“Attention all vessels, evacuate the area immediately. Divert courses away from lane 71-93; repeat, all vessels evacuate the area immediately!”
Florelia watched on her scanner as the security ships left the station. She watched as they pushed their engines to the max to catch up to the rogue vessel but even at max speed they wouldn’t be able to catch it in time. Calculating the trajectory, the computer predicted that the terrorists were steering themselves directly towards the Dorgan Finals stadium on the planet below.
“Should we issue an evacuation for the stadium?” she asked her supervisor. To her surprise he shook his head.
“It wouldn’t matter. With that much explosives it’ll turn everything within a 500km radius into the world’s largest crater.”
Florelia couldn’t speak as the horror of the situation set in. The devastation about to unfold would be the worst terrorist attack in the known universe.
A sudden beep from her console made Florelia look back and see that while many of the other civilian vessels were scattering one ship had begun moving towards the terrorist ship.
“What in the niv’nar….”
Florelia brought up the information about the secondary contact and saw it was a human mining ship designated the “Jackdaw”.
“Orbital control to human vessel Jackdaw, what are you doing?” Florelia asked as she realigned the transmitter to communicate to the human ship. “You have been instructed to evacuate the area.”
“I thought about it,” A young cheerful voice came back over the radio, “but my pappy taught me that when a robber comes at you you don’t show them the door; you show them your arm.”
Not understanding what the human was talking about she looked up to see the live camera feeds being displayed on the main monitors. DCN4 was long and narrow, while the human Jackdaw was bulky and looked as if it had been welded together with scrap metal.
It looked as if the Jackdaw was going to block DCN4 but as soon as the cargo ship drew close the mining ship ignited its engines and lazily drifted above the cargo vessel as it blew by. As it passed underneath the mining ship Florelia watch as a dozen compartments opened up on the mining ship and grappling arms the size corvettes shot out and latched on to DCN4.
The arms soon went taut and the Jackdaw ignited its engines to full in a dazzlingly bright display of light.
Like a fisherman wrangling a mighty sea creature, the Jackdaw tried to pull the terrorist ship back into orbit and give the security ships a chance to disable the vessel before it could carry out its task. Every set of eyes in the control room was locked to the main monitor as the DCN4 engines burned brighter and the ship veered left and right to try and shake off the Jackdaw.
The security ships had almost made it to DCN4 when several of the grappling arms tore away chunks of DCN4’s hull. Each of the security ships swung to avoid the debris but were struck by the whiplash of the grappling arms and exploded in a cloud of burnt metal. To the horror of orbital control one of the grappling arms swung back and damaged a few of the Jackdaw’s engines as well.
With renewed fervor the terrorist ship began plunging once more into the atmosphere with the Jackdaw still holding on with what few grappling arms remained. Though it refused to let go of the terrorist ship, it was a struggle it could not win.
“Orbital control to Jackdaw, you’ve done everything you can; disengage and get out of there.” Florelia transmitted to the Jackdaw.
“Not everything,” came the reply over the radio, “I got one last trick up my sleeve.”  
Florelia was going to ask what they meant when the Jackdaw began retracting the grappling arms while they still held on to DCN4. Slowly the arms pulled the two vessels closer and closer together as new energy warning sirens started off.
“That crazy bastard’s going to make a jump.” Florelia heard her supervisor say in disbelief.
“Jackdaw, if you attempt to make a jump in orbit-“ Florelia began but the human captain cut her off.
“It’s the last trick I got to play lassie.” They said in their chipper tone.
“There’s no guarantee you’ll make it out of the jump intact.” She persisted. “No ship has ever withstood a jump while in a gravity well.”
“First time for everything I suppose.”
The two ships were nearly touching hulls as the Jackdaw’s jump drive neared full power.
“Why are you doing this? You don’t know this world or these people; why give your life for them?”
To her surprise the human captain laughed over the coms.
“When someone’s in trouble you don’t stop to ask for details, you just help them.”
With that the two ships hulls finally touched and the Jackdaw ignited its jump drive. For a moment both ships blurred in and out of the atmosphere as DCN4 desperately tried to free itself from the mining ship’s grasp.
In a final bright flash the two ships made the jump out of the atmosphere, leaving behind a trail of scrap metal that slowly burned away as it fell to the planet below. To the public below it looked as if a series of elaborate fireworks were going off to celebrate the day’s events while those in orbit held a silent vigil for the unknown human captain who had just saved billions of lives.
For all the barbarity the human race has been known for it was easy to forget that there were still those amongst their people who would lay down their lives for strangers without ever needing a word of thanks.  
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m4tthewmurd0ck · 8 months
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COMING SOON!!!
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Mob!Bucky Barnes x Fem!Ballerina Reader
(I do my best to be as non-descriptive as possible, but I do use she / her and mention that reader is a ballerina)
Inspired by the question: Have you ever tried to eat at a restaurant, which happened to be a mafia / mob front, but you didn’t know that, and everyone inside just stared as you walked in because nobody actually eats there?
I FINALLY decided what I want my first piece back to be and I’m so excited shdiznejfns it’s very funny if I do say so myself. Once I got the idea I rushed and typed it on my phone and I already KNOW there are so many spelling errors because I have auto correct turned off and right now it looks like shit hahdndisfn. BUUUUT I just need to give it a quick read through / fix errors on my laptop and we’ll be good to go! Full preview below the cut :)
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It had been Bucky’s idea to name the restaurant Tony’s. After their dear friend who had given his life in a war that should’ve never been fought.
It had been Peter’s idea to ‘open a restaurant’. He pointed out that it would be the perfect realistic cover, though Steve argued that they didn’t really need one. Everyone in Brooklyn and the neighboring cities knew who they were, why did they need to put up any sort of front?
In the end, Bucky sided with Peter. They needed a place to talk shop and handle business, and it had to be somewhere that the outside wouldn’t attract any trouble (aka law enforcement). A warehouse was too obvious and was practically begging to be raided. He agreed with Steve, though, in that everyone knew who they were and what their business really was. He pointed out that it was actually a good thing. It would be pretty obvious that the restaurant wasn’t a restaurant, and they wouldn’t attract actual customers. But they’d make it legit, so that they couldn’t be shut down. Like Peter said, they needed a realistic cover.
Within a month, Tony’s was up and running. Running, as in the lights were on during what would be deemed normal business hours. The door was kept locked, but that didn’t matter because as Bucky predicted, no one tried to actually eat there.
Until one day when rehearsal ran nearly 2 hours late. You were tired, exhausted mentally and physically, and you just wanted some comfort food before heading back to your apartment to enjoy the next 2 days off. Still somewhat new to the city, you decided to get off of the subway one stop earlier, and find a restaurant on your way home.
Luckily for you, a neon sign reading TONY’S caught your eye. Unbeknownst to you, there was a meeting going on inside, and someone had forgotten to lock the front entrance.
As you pushed the door open, you had no idea the events that were about to unfold.
💫💫💫💫💫💫💫💫💫💫
IF YOU’D LIKE TO BE TAGGED WHEN I POST FOR BUCKY, LET ME KNOW!!
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duckymcdoorknob · 2 months
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LATE VALENTINE’S POST BC IM A GOOBER AND GOT MYSELF SICK
I literally love him sm and haven’t even met him in lore yet.
Lyney my beloved I just wanna 😘😘😘😚💋😚😚😘💋😗😙😚😙😙😙💋
I just wanna give him kissies until he’s giggly and smiley and-
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Under Lock and Key
Ships: Lyney x Gn!reader
Warnings: FLUFF AND FLUSTERED LYNEY
Prompt: It’s Valentine’s Day, and your lover wants to show you just how much he adores you.
Tags: Genshin taglist .3. @ticklish-n-stuff @chrimsss
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You couldn’t help but chuckle when Lyney’s gloved hands covered your eyes. It didn’t take a genius to know that it was him… You almost immediately recognized the cologne he was fond of wearing.
“Hello, Lyney,” you cooed.
“Aww, how’dja know it was me?” the magician pouted.
“I’m a psychic! And my next prediction is that you’re going to show me something.” You heard him chuckling before sighing.
“Do you trust me, Mon Cher?” His voice was hushed, and you felt his fingers twitch a bit over your eyes.
“With my whole life, amour,” you answered.
“Stand up, and let me guide you,” Lyney demanded in that smooth voice that always left you swooning. “Let me be your eyes and close your own… I will lead you to what I wish to show you.”
His protective demand left you dizzy and breathless. Nonetheless, you rose to your feet and closed your eyes. You felt his hands leave their place over your face and take your own. Suddenly, you felt yourself being dragged forward; you gave into the momentum and trudged along.
The magician guided you through the streets by your hands. His acquaintances waved to him and he beamed back at them and you two continued along the sidewalk.
You had only been together for about four months, but you already knew that you were head over heels for him. “Soooo… where are you taking me, amour?” You inquired with a small smile.
Lyney turned around to answer, but his breath caught in his throat. The sunlight was hitting you just the right way, and you were shining in its rays.
“Lyney?”
“I- just- don’t move,” he demanded in a sheepish voice.
“Now you sound like your brother.” You chuckled once more, shaking your head
A few more seconds passed and still no words were spoken. You peeked open your eyes and were met with your lover’s blushing face. It seemed as if Lyney knew that he was already in love with you as well…
“Hey don’t open-“ The magician gaped at you as you stared at him. Your eyes glittered in the soft glow of the sunlight.
“What?”
Silence.
A dopey smile grew on your face as you chuckled. “What?!”
The blonde exhaled breathlessly. “I’ve truly been smiled upon by the archons. Your beauty is unmatched, Mon Ange.”
“Such a smooth talker,” you murmured, grabbing his cheeks and kissing his forehead. You stuck out your hand once more. “Now, didn’t you want to show me something?”
Lyney nodded his head and smiled, taking your hand. “Close your eyes!”
Once again, the two of you were on your way. Suddenly, you began to hear the sound of tranquil waters below. Granted, they were quite far from you, but you could steal hear the peaceful sound of trickling ripples.
“You’re not going to throw me in the lake; are you?” you asked with a chuckle.
Your love snorted and fell into a fit of the beautiful laughter you’ve always so loved to hear. “No, my rosebud, I will not throw you into the lake.” He paused and chuckled again. “But if you wish to jump together, that is a different story. How about it?”
A fond exhale from you in return gave Lyney the answer he wished.
“Okay, now you can open your eyes.”
When you fluttered your eyes open, you saw the gorgeous waters of your homeland, the court, Marcotte Station, and your beloved.
“Oh, Lyney…” you whispered, “It’s beautiful.”
“That isn’t all of it, amour.” The magician fumbled in his pocket, his fingers lacing around the objects within. “Hold out your hand.”
You obliged, feeling a cold, metal object being placed on your palm. When you looked down, your eyes locked onto a small, brown padlock, which had yours and Lyney’s initials carved into it. “A lock?”
Your lover stood closer to you, draping his arm around your waist. “It’s ours for us to lock on the fence here.”
Before you could question, he spoke again.
“I want everyone to see that we belong to one another”
Your face warmed as you gaped at him, your hand completely still, thumb grazing over the small object. “Yeah…?”
“Yes,” he answered without hesitation. “I’ve never been surer of anything in my life.”
Your hand clasped around the object as you threw your arms around Lyney. He giggled as you cradled his face and peppered kisses all over it.
Eventually, the two of you knelt down in front of the chain-link fence that oversaw the water. The magician cupped your hand as you snapped the lock into place. He pulled the key out of his pocket, handing it to you. “Just in case if-“
You didn’t even let him finish the sentence before you threw the key into the water below as hard as you could. “I will never change my mind.”
Without words, Lyney pressed your foreheads together as he smiled. “This was the best thing I could think of. I thought it might have been too early to propose to you.”
You kiss his forehead and turned back to look at the lock. “I wouldn’t have thought it was too early, dummy.”
When you turned back around, Lyney was on one knee and holding a small, velvet box. He snapped it open to reveal a shimmering ring.
“Then let’s make it official.”
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—————♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎✞♡︎—————
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leiloc · 10 months
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💣Astrology observations #7💣
DISCLAIMER : All the observations written below are from my research and DO NOT copy my work
I am apologizing for my absence so y'all are getting an observation now ♥❗❗
💥I noticed that a lot of people with taurus moon have most normal parents like I would sell my soul for that kind 👀
💥12th house can really tell about past life dominant sign. Ex. Taurus 12th house can mean that you were possessive of your belongings (either Taurus, 2nd house, Venus or 2nd house ruler dominant in past life)
💥Meeting people with sun in your 12th house reflects the person you were back in the past life. That's why you can find them either similar or you feel the energy A LOT
This can also mean that you might have had past life connections with them
💥Eris (136199) asteroid is where you feel lack of a specific aspect in your life depending on which house it lays and asteroid Sedna (90377) is betrayal from men (all depends from house to house)
💥Eris in 11th house means lack of social life, in 10th house little to no reputation, 7th house lack of partnerships (either love, coworkers, etc.)
💥Sedna in 7th house can mean betrayal from men who are your lover, coworker or smth like that, in 8th house they can betray your trust and your hidden self, in 2nd house it can mean loss of property because of them
I reccomend reading the stories about the name of those asteroids, it can make a lot of sense.
💥South node conjunct uranus can mean that the person can predict the things going on and they can be all random. It depends on house placement and aspects to those how is it performed
💥South node conjunct Neptune/SN in 12th house... That must be pain dreaming a lot about your past life or living in it still. Same for Uranus - SN, you SEE things happening
💥I don't know if i have written this before but asteroid Eros (433) conjunct personal placements in synastry can result in instant attraction
💥6th house indicates daily routine, medical problems and pets bur for now I will focus on medical problems. Having a sign in that house can indicate a problem with specific body part.
The list of body parts associated with zodiac signs will be posted soon and a lot of astrology - medicine associations will be posted
For now that's it and I hope you enjoyed this post and stay safe y'all ♥
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oh-snapperss · 9 months
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The Ultimate Guide to MCC!
New to watching mcc? Have no idea where to start? Or maybe you already watch mcc, and just want information all in one place?
Well, good news! I'm insane about MCC and made this massive post for no other reason! I plan to keep this updated as I think of other vods/clips and new stuff happens, so if you want to be sure you're reading the most up to date version of the post, click here.
With all that out of the way-
What is MCC?
MCC stands for Minecraft Championships and is an event organized by Noxcrew, who develop and test the games, and Scott Smajor, who makes the teams! The event takes place usually once a month, and 10 teams of 4 people compete to be the top two teams overall by playing eight minigames! The top two teams battle it out at the end by playing Dodgebolt (first to win three rounds takes the crown).
Noxcrew announces the teams and next date of the event on MCC's official twitter and their newsletter via email, although @mcc-updates posts the teams here as well after they're announced.
Some useful links and more information on the event:
mcc.live - Official site that updates live during the event! Team scores are updated live here, and links to all the streaming POV's are included. You can also find information on past MCC's and how an individual performed!
MCC Wiki - Community run wiki for the event! You can find information on any player that's ever been in an MCC, information about how the event works, and information on individual events.
A list of active games in the event, and how each are played can be found here!
Canon VS. Noncanon MCCs
Sometimes, Noxcrew decides to host an MCC that is considered "noncanon". Typically, this means that something about the event is different, and player's coins and stats for that MCC will not go into the overall average of their played events. Some examples of noncanon mccs:
MCC Pride (held once a year, typically raises money for the Trevor Project!
MCC Rising (only players who have never participated in an MCC before may be in it!)
MCC Scuffed (April Fools MCC, the entire event was scuffed on purpose, an incredibly funny overall event)
MCC All Stars (Only players who have won an MCC participate)
With all of that out of the way, some iconic and hilarious clips from across the events!
(note: where I could, I've included the vods that these clips came from!)
Grian's Iconic 1v3 Dodgebolt (MCC 17)
Jimmy Solidarity's 1v3 Dodgebolt (MCC 28)
Illumina EWW (MCC 15)
Purpled's nearly perfect Parkour Warrior run with Ranboo and Charlie losing their minds in the background (MCC 26)
Purpled's perfect Parkour Warrior Run (MCC 32)
Jojo's insane Sands of Time carry (MCC 31)
"Joel, I want a divorce!" (MCC 10)
"Sapnap I will eat your children!" (MCC 18)
Lord Grian Dreamslayer (MCC 9)
Michael Mcchill's Ace Race breakdown (MCC All Stars)
MCC Iconic Vods/Fan Favorites!
Orange Ocelots MCC 17 - Grian, Falsesymmetry, Petezahutt and SB737
Orange Ocelots MCC 24 - Tubbo, Tommyinnit, Hbomb and Jack Manifold
Blue Bats MCC Scuffed - Smallishbeans, Smajor, Fwhip and Geminitay
Cyan Coyotes MCC 24 - PearlescentMoon, Aimsey, JojoSolos and Hannahxxrose
Blue Bats MCC 9 - Falsesymmetry, Rendog, Hbomb and Fruitberries
If you want some other great channels and streams for MCC, I've listed some below!
All Things MCC is a channel hosted by Seapeekay and always uploads a video after each MCC featuring their picks for the top ten plays of the event! They also do team predictions + the occasional other video on MCC. Super fun, and a great way to catch some clips you may have missed during the event.
MCC Vault posts clips of various perspectives from various events--typically another way to see things you might not get to see otherwise.
If you're a Sands of Time enjoyer, Hbomb94 usually goes live the day after the event and vod reviews at least one POV of Sands of Time from each team. Super entertaining, and a fun way to really get to know the strats for that game.
You may be thinking-wow, these games look really fun! Is there a way for anyone to play them?
The answer is yes-and no. While some of the games are not currently available for download, Noxcrew has a public minecraft server called MCC Island, available for anyone to join and play! As of right now, the available games to play on that server are:
Parkour Warrior (available in singleplayer mode and a fast paced competitive mode)
Sky Battle (eight teams compete instead of ten, and there are maps available that are not played in the main event!)
To Get To The Other Side (three rounds instead of six, uses a mixture of maps from the event and maps that are not played in the event)
Hole in the Wall (be warned--there are traps, different maps, and overall is a harder game on the island. My personal fav:D)
Battle Box (three rounds instead of nine, mixture of maps
Noxcrew has stated they plan on adding more games to the server, and there are events and other things happening too!
IP to join the server: play.mccisland.net
You can find more information and official forums here!
Additionally, you can download Terra Swoop Force and play it on a singleplayer world or put it in a server with your friends! Link for the download and instructions here.
Finally, Grid Runners is an available map on Bedrock edition only--I don't know much about bedrock, only that it is an option. Link to that info here.
I think that's about it for now! I'll update this as I think of things or am asked to add something:) Hopefully this helps a bit, cause I know coming into this stuff with no info can be overwhelming!
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eviebane · 5 months
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Aziraphale spoke with The Metatron during the attack
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Aziraphale's only plan during the bookshop attack was to request the gate. We know from S1 that someone in Heaven has to open it. Aziraphale initially thought it was God but it turned out to be The Metatron, who says he'll leave the gateway open for Aziraphale.
In 2x05 Aziraphale requests a gate. "Hello? Anybody there?" He's reaching out to someone in Heaven. Note that just before the gateway opens, the audience mostly stays with Maggie & Nina while Aziraphale is busy in the background. He disappears for 1 minute and 14 seconds just before opening the gateway.
The video below shows the bookshop attack up until Aziraphale steps away from the gateway, focusing on Aziraphale's whereabouts (2m16s).
At this point I wonder exactly what Aziraphale was up to. Requesting a gateway is a sure-fire way to summon someone from Heaven, but no one appears in the gateway and he ends up just using it to discorporate demons. Aziraphale acknowledges that even demons aren't that stupid, they won't keep walking into it forever - it was a flimsy plan.
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Is it possible that this plan was either only part of his plan, or a failed plan so he adapted. In either of these plans, I think the goal was to speak to Heaven but as the gateway was empty, Aziraphale used the gate as a weapon.
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Why would Aziraphale reach out to Heaven? Well, it's exactly what he did in S1 when things went wrong. He tried to talk to God to 'sort this whole mess out'. Trying again in S2 isn't that far-fetched.
Several times in S2, Aziraphale references being under Heaven's protection and the bookshop being an embassy, despite even Shax pointing out that wasn't true.
Did Aziraphale want to speak to Metatron? We now have Aziraphale requesting a gate in the same manner he did in S1 when he spoke to Metatron, so we have to assume Aziraphale expected that requesting the gate would summon the Metatron to it.
Perhaps he was trying God (even though he tried God in S1 and knows he just gets the Metatron) or trying another angel (but we don't know of any angel allies he has so this seems unlikely). Therefore I'm concluding he was trying to summon the Metatron.
Why would Aziraphale want to speak to the Metatron? It could have been purely to get access to the gateway as a weapon in the attack, but again, Aziraphale himself said it wouldn't be that effective. I believe Aziraphale's plan went beyond just opening the gateway.
You can read my meta post about the Final Fifteen and Aziraphale’s plan for season 3 here.
If Aziraphale wanted to speak to the Metatron, I believe it was to ask for help. Now, the Metatron wouldn't give this freely so he would ask for something in return. Remember that the Metatron is keen to launch Armageddon 2.0 and knows that Aziraphale is a threat to his plans.
What was the deal? This is difficult to theorise as we don't have a lot of clues. There's a few lines that strike me as odd.
"Do people ever ask for Death?" "What?" "Well, the name of your establishment, Give Me Coffee or Give Me Death. I assume they always ask for coffee." "They don't ever ask for Death, no." "No, I don't suppose they do. So predictable."
"It's just you and me, Aziraphale. I think we need to have a bit of a chinwag, don't you?" "I don't believe there's anything left to be said. I've made my position quite clear."
The way Aziraphale says he's made his position quite clear feels to me like a conversation has already taken place. We know Aziraphale isn't offered the Supreme Archangel job until later on, so what could they have discussed prior?
We see parallels in S2 about making deals where someone could claim a favour owed later on. Did Aziraphale also make a deal with the Metatron - in exchange for the gateway, the Metatron could claim a favour from Aziraphale?
It could be a blanket 'yes' to anything he asks for. It could be Aziraphale's return to Heaven or even his death. I'm honestly not going to rule anything out. But this could (could!) explain Aziraphale's sincerity during the Final Fifteen when he tells Crowley about the Metatron's offer. Perhaps this was a better deal than he was originally offered or just imagined. Remember that there are pieces of his café conversation with the Metatron that we don't see.
Maybe it's a little far-reaching, but I do think it's not outlandish to believe that Neil has something very sneaky happening up his (and Aziraphale's) sleeve, and any good magician has already started their trick before the audience even starts watching for it to begin. There is so much to unpack in S2 and I think to guess at S3, we need to look back further than the Final Fifteen.
As always let me know your thoughts!
*edit* I don't think the gateway was opened before we see it open, but we know that Heaven can hear his pray before the gateway opens. Was Aziraphale in the back room praying for help?
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howtofightwrite · 8 days
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If a character can manipulate points of gravity (up becomes down, left is down, right is down for yhe duration of the scene) and essentially be a spiderman without the spider webs by getting to run up buildings, and essentially be fighting in a more 3-d space...anything worth commenting on? I think what I'm trying to ask is what should one take into account when it's possible to have fight scenes in three dimensional ways. I recall that you wrote a post about how sea battles would technically look nothing like land battles considering the environmental difference of enemies coming at *all* directions.
That's not, really, “all directions.” For one thing, they don't have to worry about your character phasing through solid objects. It's also not going to be as effective as the web shooters for avoiding fire.
One of the quirks of Spiderman is that he doesn't, and really can't, travel in a straight line. He travels in a series of arcs, and while those arcs are predictable, it's much harder to lead your shots when he can jerk away in a different direction with almost no warning.
This is in contrast to characters with gravity manipulation based flight, who tend to travel in straight lines.
The issue with a battle in the sea comes from this basic concept. If you're a mile underwater in the Pacific, it is quite likely that there is another four miles of water below you, with the nearest land thousands of miles away. There is no cover.
Somewhat obviously, an urban environment offers a lot more cover. Your character can come in around buildings, drop from above.
What's significantly more disturbing is the prospect of your character being able to alter gravity for others. Causing someone to “fall” away into traffic or the sky is probably far more horrifying than the idea that they could run up a wall. Though, I suppose it's important to never underestimate the sheer pants shitting terror one can inflict by crab-walking across the ceiling towards your preferred prey.
Of course if you're manipulating gravity, then it stands to reason you may be able to add or subtract the gravity. It's one thing to sneak up on a mobster and propel him into the sky at 9.8m/s2. It's another thing to casually create a small gravity well inside his brain and crush his skull. Or, an anti-gravity spike and explode him like a forgotten microwave burrito.
It should go without saying by this point, but this power set can get really messy.
It's also worth remembering, this is one of those power sets that are just as dangerous to the user as their foes. Hopping from one building to another while flicking gravity mid flight could very easily result in broken bones and a really unpleasant landing. Unless they also have some pretty significant kinetic resistances, this is probably not something they'd want to use as a travel power (unless they're carefully tuning it to create fight.) Otherwise, inertia is their greatest foe.
To be honest, wall climbing is a slightly strange choice for a primary travel power. Yes, it is a viable choice, but using those same powers to take flight is going to be much less risky.
-Starke
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Note
Just any genshin or aot girls of your choice watching 50 shades of gray with their s/o
I had this idea and was giggling at the thought of Lisa being like “gives me idea cutie…”😭
(Genshin impact) Lisa, Eula, Jean, Lumine, Yae, Ei, Yelan, Rosaria, and Ayaka, and Shenhe watching Fifty Shades of Grey with their S/O
I feel like I would be in danger considering the characters that are on this post.
NSF-W Implications below the cut!
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(Lisa) "Oh my. This is an...interesting movie choice for us tonight, S/O."
S/O had shown Lisa many of these "movies". They ranged from comedic, serious, action-packed, name a genre, S/O would have it!
Though, she didn't predict "smut" to be on their movie library.
Part of her wonders if S/O was trying to tell her something by having this movie on tonight.
(Lisa) "You know, if you wanted to try something exciting in the bedroom, you could have just told me, dear.~"
Lisa teases as her fingers brush across their shoulder, giggling.
Lisa was highly amused by the movie, but can't help but wonder how anyone could've acted those scenes out with a straight face.
Well regardless, it definitely gave her some new ideas.
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(Eula) "...What on earth did you put on, S/O?!"
Eula is blushing madly as the movie goes on, eventually just shaking her head and pausing the movie straight up.
She did not mind the selection S/O usually put on during movie nights, but this was too far!
Her heart couldn't take it Eula had far more class than whatever the hell this was!
(Eula) "I refuse to watch something so indecent! S/O, put on a different film at once, lest you incur my wrath!"
This time, she actually means it.
The fact they specifically chose this movie changes Eula's view on S/O on...certain topics.
She tries her best to keep the movie's scenes out of her mind lest she succumb to becoming a flustered mess.
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Jean's face is blushing madly, her jaw slightly agape, and eyes wide open.
She could not peel her eyes off the screen, being completely speechless.
Jean does not look S/O in the eyes the entire duration, just remaining dead silent.
(Jean) "..."
It's only after the movie is done that she clears her throat.
(Jean) ahem "T-That...was an odd choice for a movie, tonight S/O."
She does not say a single thing about the movie other than that.
Jean's face is completely red, hoping that S/O wasn't going to say anything about it.
Barbatos help her, the movie is on her mind for at least then next week, even while at work.
Her flustered state gets worse when she envisions-
NOPE. DON'T THINK ABOUT IT.
(Jean) frustrated sigh
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(Lumine) "...I think I would've liked an action movie better."
Lumine can't help but be a little flustered while watching the movie.
Especially with S/O sitting next to her as it goes on.
But it was made worse as Paimon was just sitting there, eating the popcorn.
(Paimon) "Uh...Paimon doesn't understand what's happening here. Why is she tied up?"
(Lumine) "Paimon, go get us some more popcorn. Now."
Paimon happily agrees to get more food as she shovels the remaining bucket into her mouth, leaving them alone.
Lumine crosses her arms and frowns at S/O.
(Lumine) "If you're trying to tell me something with this, I don't find it funny."
She would be taken more serious had her blush not completely overtaken her face.
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(Yae) "Oh, they turned that book you lent me into a theatre production? How risque."
Yae is highly amused by watching the scenes she read acted out.
She also notices how many differences there were between the film and novels.
(Yae) "Hm. They do not pounce on each other nearly as much as they did in the text. I do not know if I am disappointed or relieved..."
Nitpicking aside, she enjoys the experience of watching the movie and comparing the book.
(Yae) "I wonder how this would do if I were to publish this in house. Would many people read it, or would it be forgotten?"
She shrugs and looks back at S/O, a dangerous glint in her eye.
(Yae) "Nevermind that. Is there a particular reason you wanted to show me this, little one? I doubt it was solely because you wanted to see my reaction."
She laughs upon seeing S/O's face, her hand covering her mouth.
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Confusion, thy name is Ei.
There were so many questions she had throughout the movie, especially when it came to the spicier scenes.
(Ei) "Ana is getting tied up, is she about to be interroga-...Oh. They are naked. What exactly is happening to her?"
She just blinks in curiosity throughout the entire movie, her attitude barely shifting.
Ei feels like she has even more questions about what humans do in their off time than ever before.
(Ei) "Is this based off a true story? I do not feel like this is entirely healthy for humans to have. Unless we are the outlier?"
She doesn't really know what to think of the movie, honestly.
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(Yelan) "Well, this is as subtle as Ningguang throwing the Jade Palace at whatever's inconveniencing her that day."
Honestly? Yelan finds the movie pretty entertaining.
Beats just doing nothing with her night.
But she can't help but wonder the implications of S/O choosing this movie of all things to watch.
Especially considering her Vision's powers.
Yelan had never really thought about using her strings that way before.
(Yelan) "I hope you're not planning on asking me to try everything we saw, S/O. I have more class than that. And I certainly hope you have higher standards than her."
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Rosaria has a slight smirk the entire movie duration, not really commenting on anything aloud.
Not until the movie is finished that she speaks up.
(Rosaria) "I feel like I need a bath after watching that."
She leans back into the sofa, looking at S/O with an eyebrow raised.
(Rosaria) "Not that I hated watching it, but why exactly did you wanna show me this movie? I know you got your kinks, but I didn't think you were that freaky."
Rosaria chuckles as she simply moves to find another movie.
(Rosaria) "Not judging. Just surprised is all."
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Ayaka didn't really know what to expect hearing the name.
But as the film progressed, her face scrunched up and cheeks heated faster than anything in her life had done.
The moment the first spicy scene hits, she's already sweating profusely as she turns to S/O, trying to ignore the sounds.
(Ayaka) "S-S/O! Could we change the movie?...Please?!"
She would literally watch anything other than this. Even the horror movies!
Ayaka was already embarrassed in the bedroom, there was no need to have it presented to her in such...such a degenerate form!
(Ayaka) "I would thank you if we were to not watch those kinds of movies S/O. Not that I am ungrateful for us spending time together but...But why that?!"
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Shenhe's face barely moves the entire movie.
Her monotone voice simply speaks up during certain scenes like:
(Shenhe) "We do not do that when you are on top of me."
Or:
(Shenhe) "Is that how you're supposed to do it? What you do to me is very different."
Shenhe doesn't even blink at any of the more spicy scenes.
Shenhe unintentionally guts the eroticism out of the entire movie, watching it as if it was some kind of guide on how romance should be done.
Regardless, it's something Shenhe doesn't approve of, at all.
(Shenhe) "That did not look enjoyable. Thank you for treating me well, S/O. May we watch another movie?"
Shenhe puts on something that she can understand far better, and was far more enjoyable.
She doesn't even really think about Fifty Shades of Grey. For her, it was a movie, and that was about the extent of it.
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