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cksmart-world · 1 year

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SMART BOMB

The completely unnecessary news analysis

by Christopher Smart

Jan. 3, 2023

UTAH'S 10 BEST NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTIONS

1 – Sen. Mike Lee: Pretend not to know Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows.

2 – Sen. Mitt Romney: Pretend not to know Mike Lee.

3 – Rep. Burgess Owens: Concoct new ways Democrats are destroying America's soul.

4 – Mayor Erin Mendenhall: Ignore mayoral challenger Rocky Anderson.

5 – Former Mayor Rocky Anderson: Don't let Erin Mendenhall ignore you.

6 – Gov. Spencer Cox: Stop talking trash about the Outdoor Retailer trade show now that they're coming back to Utah despite Republican opposition to Bears Ears etc.

7 – A.G. Sean Reyes: Get invited to more international soccer matches. Say you're looking for trafficked women.

8 – Utah Senate President Stuart Adams: Go to more soccer matches with Reyes. Say it's for international trade.

9 – Utah Football Coach Kyle Wittingham: Ask for another raise, $6 million isn't nearly enough.

10 – LDS President Russell Nelson: Get a revelation that it's OK to say “Mormon” again.

ONLY LITTLE PEOPLE PAY TAXES

The cat's out of the bag: In 2016 and again in 2017, Donald Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes. Trump paid zero taxes in 10 of the previous 15 years. That's one helluva cat. As Leona Helmsley once said: “Only little people pay taxes.” Yes Wilson, you and the band are little people. For 2008 and 2009, Trump declared $1 billion in loses and got a $72.9 million refund from previous taxes. It's all on the up and up — or is it. Trump's taxes are such a can of worms that the IRS couldn't (or wouldn't) figure them out. One thing is for sure, tax accountants can be worth their weight in gold — yes, literally. According to the news organization, ProPublica, the 25 top American billionaires increased their wealth by $401 billion from 2014 to 2018, but paid a federal income tax rate of only 3.4 percent. The median American household earned about $70,000 annually and paid 14 percent in federal taxes. Jeff Bezos paid no federal income taxes for the years 2007 and 2011. His wealth increased by $127 billion from 2006 to 2018, while he paid a tax rate of 1.1 percent. Not only does Congress not care that the richest of the rich pay little to no taxes but they want to hang the dirty S.O.B. who leaked to ProPublica. Poor billionaires getting their dirty laundry aired out like that. What is the world coming to.

IT'S A BIRD, IT'S A PLANE — NO IT'S AN OLIGARCH

The weirdest thing, Russian elites just keep falling out of windows. That they were all critics of Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is just coincidental. And we thought Trump was mean. Imagine this headline: “Tragic coincidence, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Michael Bloomberg and Elon Musk all fell out of windows to their deaths.” Hmmm. Oh well, what are you going to do. That seems to be the attitude in Russia where at least a dozen big shots have died since the Ukraine incursion in March. The Dutch news network NOS described the coincidences as "a grim series of Russian billionaires, many from the oil and gas industries, who have been found dead in unusual circumstances...” In Putin's Russia, “unusual” is not so unusual. USA Today concluded that 38 Russian businessmen died mysteriously between 2014 and 2017. Darn the luck. Maybe it was Covid. Remember U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who recused himself from investigating Russian interference into the 2016 election. A furious Trump called him a “dumb Southerner” and “mentally retarded.” But Sessions didn't die mysteriously, although Trump did kill his career. Our politics may be blood sport, but in Putin's Russia there is little blood and no fingerprints but many coincidences.

Post script — That's it for another wonderful year here at Smart Bomb where we keep track of Donald Trump's legal problems so you don't have to. Let's see, there were all those top secret documents he spirited away to Mar-A-Lago; there's the little matter of Trump leading a coup to remain in power; in a recorded call he demanded the Georgia secretary of state “find” enough votes to win that state; Trump still faces the possibility of criminal charges against him personally as part of the Manhattan D.A.'s Office investigation into fraud allegations. We could go on but there's only so much time in a day. Happy New Year, Mr. Trump. BREAKING NEWS! It rained in California and when it rains, it pours. Ain't it the truth. Last weekend's storm brought 70 inches of snow to Alta, Utah. From our “Stinkers”-file: George Santos, the recently elected Republican congressman from Long Island, has been caught lying — not just lying, but lying and lying and lying. You're right Wilson, we not sure that's news, either. And finally this from the letters to The Salt Lake Tribune: “In what universe does any rational life-form care about what is happening to the cast of the show 'The Real Housewives of Salt Lake City'? For the love of all that is holy, please stop reporting on their pathetic lives.”

Well Wilson, what do you think, is this year going to be better than 2022? Some good things did happen last year, it's just that the staff here at Smart Bomb can't think of any. You and the guys in the band usually have a pretty good attitude, like you're high on life... or something. So take us out with hopeful song for 2023:

What would you think if I sang out of tune Would you stand up and walk out on me? Lend me your ears and I'll sing you a song And I'll try not to sing out of key Oh I get by with a little help from my friends Mm I get high with a little help from my friends Mm gonna try with a little help from my friends What do I do when my love is away? Does it worry you to be alone? How do I feel by the end of the day? Are you sad because you're on your own? No I get by with a little help from my friends Mm I get high with a little help from my friends Mm gonna try with a little help from my friends Do you need anybody? I need somebody to love Could it be anybody? I want somebody to love Would you believe in a love at first sight? Yes I'm certain that it happens all the time What do you see when you turn out the light? I can't tell you, but I know it's mine Oh I get by with a little help from my friends Mm I get high with a little help from my friends Oh I'm gonna try with a little help from my friends (With A Little Help From My Friends — The Beatles)

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ditttiiiwrecks · 4 years

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OT7 Fic Rec Master Post:

last updated (16/05/2021)

If my master-list is anything to go by I am clearly obsessed with ot7, so here are some of my favs.

Some of these stories are linked from Ao3. If any of those fics have been cross posted to Tumblr, please let me know.

Current Fic Count: 25

Give all these amazing authors some love ♡ & To all the authors, Thank you so much for writing. I am so beyond grateful for all the work and time that you put in to writing these stunning pieces of literary art.

This list is by no means complete, so if you have any recommendations, send em my way! ♡ Happy Reading!

~Love, @ditttiii ♡

1) Void by @btssavedmylifeblr

Summary: You are the only female crew member on a 12 year space mission with seven handsome men. The sexual tension is real, y’all.

2) Make You Know Love by @btsismybiass

Summary: Growing up, Jungkook had always shared everything with his brothers; toys, food, clothing, friends, and even girls. The seven were inseparable — secrets were not allowed. Halfway through senior year, Jungkook was sent to a school halfway across the world, though he wouldn’t tell anyone (that didn’t already know) why. Years later, he has an adjoining apartment with his best friend (who is hopelessly in love with him) and 6 brothers he has yet to tell her about. One night, she comes barging into his home unannounced only to be met with a group of sexy foreign strangers.

3) Armed to the Fangs by @jingabitch

Summary: You grew up in the Hunter’s Guild, understanding that it is your sacred duty as a hunter to protect humanity from the vampires that lurk in the dark, draining the life from anyone unlucky enough to be caught. While making the rounds one night, you encounter Taehyung, a fabled born vampire - not that you know that when he tries to entice you into a dark alley. Next thing you know, you’re kidnapped and taken to their home, where you realise that all of them somehow crave your blood and seem to know more about your past than you do. Finding out about where you came from might be the key to setting humanity free.

4) Sanctuary by @softykooky

Summary: some people are lucky enough to be born into a family that loves them. others meet their family in a coffee shop while on the run from the korean ambassador, while they’re holding a man at gunpoint and beating him to a pulp for treason against their syndicate.

5) Eunoia by @wishesunderthestars

Summary: You are a world famous director and you have dedicated your life to your job.You have everything you could ever dream of; wealth, recognision, talent, your friends and family. But loneliness ins’t cured by success. So what happens when you somehow rescue seven hybrids? Can they fill the void?

6) Tangled Hearts by @writersrealmbts

Summary: You have seven hybrids and life with them can be both good and stressful. Some days are better than others, but in the end, you know that they’re always there for you, in more ways than one.

7) Diamond Tears and Little Wings by @writersrealmbts

Summary: You’re a fairy, taken in by BTS. You need lots of love and care, otherwise your light will fade and you turn to stone. Between the seven of them, you should never feel unloved. Right?

8) Rose & Thorns by @minniepetals

Summary: a lone rose, a little broken, until Jungkook came along and the two of you saved each other. and in doing so, Jungkook showed you a world where he shared with his six other mates.

9) The Butter Series by @minniepetals

Summary: their names alone had every men and women turning their heads and falling at their feet. successful, prestigious, handsome, rich and untouchable to anyone that looked their way. and you? you were just an employee who worked for them. who would have known you meant so much more to them than you could ever imagine?

10) Stray Cat Strut by Bang to the Tan (TyphloticHaruspex)

Summary: When your grandmother passes away, she leaves her countryside house in your name. The longer you stay, the harder and harder it becomes to explain away the odd happenings. What kind of secrets does this sleepy town hold? And why do the local animals act so strangely around you?…

11) BACK HOME by @alexlwrites

Summary: : The one where, after living abroad for years, you move back to Korea and your old high school friend Namjoon offers you his place to stay while you get settled, casually forgetting to mention that: a) he still had a massive crush on you. b) he lived with six other guys.

12) A Hundred Percent Human by Wrienne

Summary: In which you are forced to take care of seven hybrids in a twist of fate. After your estranged mother passes away, you're left with an unwanted will and the heavy burden of responsibility. Although you're desperate not to stray from the familiar path you thought was laid out in front of you with a fully human boyfriend who loves you more than anything, your life is thrown upside down once more after another unfortunate incident (that may or may not have to do with said boyfriend) occurs. Drunk and down on life, you finally decide to deal with the house and the unsavory business your mother left behind. However, to your shock, you find that seven very different hybrids are included with both the house - and the business. Seven hybrids you never even met before - even less agreed to take care of. Set in the not too distant future where infertility has become mankind's greatest issue. Will contain sexual content.

13) I’ll Still Stay by @sugamoonv

Summary: Y/N, living in a society where hybrids are seen as commonly as pets and working a well-paying job, finally decides to adopt a hybrid for herself. But what happens when instead of one new companion, she leaves with seven? And what happens when nature decides that these companions are meant to be more than that?

14) The Gateway to Your Heart by @justimajin

Summary: ❝You gave me the best of me, so you give you the best of you.❞

15) Like I Do by interlude__dream

Summary: It's summer in Seoul. You didn't expect much to happen during your nights working at a coffee shop, but somehow, giving one kid a sandwich wrapped up your fate with seven hungry boys more tightly than you could have ever imagined.

16) w e a r e a l l m a d h e r e by cath_mg

Summary: In which you're a model student who just managed to catch not just one, not two, but all seven 'transfer students' who just happened to visit your university.At the end of the road, will you stay or will you run? Or...

17) Follow Me Down by ARMY_BRAT

Summary: It was supposed to be a simple vacation to a foreign land. You certainly didn’t expect to wake up drugged and caged like an animal in the basement of seven beautiful men.

18) Sharing is Caring by always_bias_wrecked

Summary: You decide to let the rest of Bangtan watch you and your boyfriend Jimin have sex one time. Now suddenly everyone seems to want a piece of you, and Jimin doesn't seem to mind sharing.

19) Ruin Me, I Dare You. by porcelainbones

Summary: Where a regular wannabe author discovers the members of the biggest band in the world are her soulmates. All Seven. (not a reader insert)

20) Abundance by @angelicyoongie

Summary: You never expected that you would end up adopting a hybrid, and if someone had told you that you would end up with seven? Well, you would have thought they were crazy. But here you are, with three different packs of hybrids that don’t get along – but all want to stay with you. Yeah, it turns out crazy is an understatement.

21) You Never Walk Alone by @agustdakasuga

Summary: You live a quiet life in your late grandfather’s cabin in the woods. You go to school just to graduate and get your diploma, not to make friends or stand out from the crowd. That was until one day, you enter your home to see a pack of wolves that need shelter.

22) Accidental Friends by erakun

Summary: Meet Bangtan, international superstars, the pride of South Korea, the love and hope in the dark of many lives, the role model and celebrity crush of so many people, and a group of people you often stumble across in your day to day life. You become acquaintances, slowly become friends, and- that's it. You are in a platonic friendship with Bangtan. Let me say it again. *clears throat* PLATONIC.

23) Lifeline by @forgottenpasta

Summary: What happens when a witch curses seven vampires to share one fated mate between them?

24) Restitution by @cloudteawrites

Summary: When an estranged uncle leaves you his massive fortune you wonder if the universe is playing a joke on you. when that fortune comes with seven hybrids, you know for sure that it is.

25) The Lore of the Forest by spield

Summary: Nothing ancient and magical is ever really lost. When the descendants and heirs of the myths and legends come together to live a normal life, something - someone - is thrown into their plans. Bringing with them aid, magic and so much more.

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fishingtel · 3 years

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What is the great line for bass fishing?

Twenty-first-century bass anglers have a wealth of alternatives whilst selecting the crucial link that connects them to their finned quarry: their line. Anglers of yesteryear were constrained to without a doubt brittle monofilament and frayed dacron lines, but today, we're blessed with an entire library of modern lines collectively with braids, fluorocarbons, and others that bear little resemblance to those used withinside the past. It is critical to apprehend that there may be no unmarried high-satisfactory line; instead, each line has its particular strengths and weaknesses, which we have to reflect on consideration whenever we spool a reel or solid a lure. Let’s check how line selection plays an important feature of fishing line for bass fishing.

Let’s start with the resource of considering the maximum vital tendencies of the 3 critical forms of modern fishing lines:

Monofilament: Mono is generally soft, castable, and handy to use. It is accessible in an in-depth sort of colors, which incorporates low-visibility options like clean, blue, and green, as nicely as hi-vis choices like red, yellow, and orange. Mono has a tendency closer to unbiased buoyancy but is not particularly resistant closer to abrasion, nicks, scrapes. Monofilament is quite stretchy and might stretch as lots as 25% whilst below stress. Finally, mono does absorb water even as use and may be degraded with the resource of the sun’s detrimental UV rays. For those reasons, in case you spool up with mono, reflect on consideration on converting your line a minimum of two times every year.

Fluorocarbon: Many of mono’s shortcomings are addressed via fluorocarbon lines. Indeed, fluoro can moreover be mild and castable, with the added advantage of drastically extra perfect abrasion resistance, making it a better desire for fishing spherical cover like timber and rocks which could damage special lines. In addition, fluorocarbon is the least visible line underwater, making it an outstanding desire for clean water and line-shy fish. Fluorocarbon strains are a lousy lot lots much less stretchy than monofilaments, will be predisposed to sink slowly withinside the water column, and are stable to destructive UV rays. For the various maximum well-known bass presentations, a fluorocarbon line (or a fluoro leader) is an excellent desire.

Braids: Modern braided strains have come in an extended manner from the thick dacron lines of old. Today’s braids are the thinnest strains handy at any particular pound take a look at the rating. Braids are tough, no-stretch strains with excellent tensile strength. Because braids are opaque, they're the maximum visible lines, every above and below the water; in situations whilst line, visibility might also additionally limit strikes, use a fluorocarbon leader among the lure and the braided line. Braided strains are superb at reducing via vegetation, and are top-notch selections whilst fishing in weeds, grass, and pads. Finally, braided lines float, making them the quality desire for topwater presentations.

Technique-unique line selection

While there may be no unmarried top-notch line for all applications, we can replicate on attention at the strengths (and weaknesses) of man or woman line kinds in a technique-unique manner, helping us to pick out the exquisite feasible line for any given presentation. For example:

Texas-rigged mild plastics

Line alternatives for fishing Texas rigs rely upon the type and density of cover you diagram to target. When punching thick grass or milfoil with a Texas-rigged tube and a 1-ounce tungsten bullet weight, run braided line, generally 40 lb check Seaguar Smackdown in Stealth Grey. This quite difficult line has an identical diameter as 12 lb take a look at mono, and slices through weeds without issues whilst fishing fish in heavy cover. When fishing weed edges or sparse cover, spool up as an opportunity with 12 lb take a look at Seaguar Tatsu, a particular, double-shape one hundred percent fluorocarbon line that represents the great mixture among castability, abrasion resistance, and knot strength.

Carolina rigs

Carolina rigs are a great danger to leverage the strengths of every braided and fluorocarbon line. Spool up with Seaguar Smackdown as your mainline, selecting each low-vis Stealth Grey in 40 lb check or the hi-vis color option, Flash Green, in 30 lb test. A high-visibility opportunity is fine proper right here because of the reality we can separate the braided line from the entice with a fluorocarbon leader. Here, choose out an 18-24” length of 15 lb take a look at Seaguar AbrazX, one hundred percent fluorocarbon line with 2x the abrasion resistance of the equal fluorocarbons. Now you may enjoy the benefits of braid’s strength, coupled with fluorocarbon’s reduced visibility and toughness.

Deep diving crankbaits

Big-billed, deep-diving crankbaits may be incredible sooner or later in lots of calendar periods. Big fish addicted to cranks are regularly out of place because of powerful runs on the boat side. Rather than using a stretchy monofilament line for its shock-soaking up characteristics, use a 100% fluorocarbon like 15 lb take a look at Seaguar Tatsu, to help guard the road towards abrasion sooner or later of the retrieve – that's particularly critical whilst the use of the bait into the bottom, or deflecting off covers like rocks, stumps, or dock pilings. Your take care of although desires to be in a function to absorb that boat factor runs, so assemble that into your rod as opposed to your line: whilst cranking big-billed baits, use a moderate-motion rod designed for massive cranks, to help supply more of those crankbait-consuming fish to hand.

For more information check out our: Best fishing line for bass fishing.

#bass fishing #fishing line #line for bass #fishing #fly fishing #fishing boat #Trout fishing

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narrowtriangle33-blog · 3 years

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White people called out.

"It just amazes me how white people never have anything to say when you see “them” being accused of murders and other strange crimes, but if a Black man gets arrested or shot by police; they just have all kinds of opinions don’t they?"

"Fact: White men commit 66.9% of assaults on family members and children, 47% of murders , 73.3% of sex offenses, 65% of forcible rape, 63% of aggravated assault, 69% of burglary, 75.4% of vandalism, 59% of violent crime, 78% of arson, 63% of auto theft , 58% of suspicion, 68.7% of fraud etc… Also 88% of Serial Killers and Serial Rapists are white males." {source: FBI}

"Now does this mean that this ostensible data of crime rates among whites is accepted? Absolutely not!

The U.S. media wants you to think Blacks are doing all the crime. While you are focused on the action on TV, their corporate bedfellows will rob your 401K, stock options and bank accounts blind.

Here’s a crude illustration I have created to make it clear on the crime in America.

Say you have 100 people…

60% are White people 15% are Latino people 12% are Black people 8% are Asian people 5% are Jewish people ___________ 100 people

Are all of the Black people committing crime? No. Lets say HALF, which is highly exaggerated, are committing crime…take that number for the other ethnicities, too.

IF HALF OF EACH ETHNICITY WAS A CRIMINAL REGARDLESS OF CRIME COMMITTED…

30% White criminals 7.5% Latino criminals 6% Black criminals 4% Asian criminals 2.5% Jewish criminals _______________ 50 criminals

Even if only about 1 in 8 White people committed crime, it is still more in numbers than half of each individual non-White ethnic populations…

IF 1/4th OF EACH ETHNICITY WAS A CRIMINAL…

15 White criminals out of 60 Whites 4 Latino criminals out of 16 Latinos 3 Black criminals out of 12 Blacks 2 Asian criminals out of 8 Asians 1 Jewish criminals out of 5 Jews __________________ about 25 criminals out of 100 people

Conclusion: Logically speaking, there will always be 3 times more White criminals…or 60% of all criminals are White…but then not all things are equal. One could argue that Latinos are 4 times more and Blacks are 5 times more likely to be ARRESTED by police…its not always what has been done, but what can be proven. Its a general belief that cops, regardless of their own personal racial lines, are prejudiced.

It would be interesting to find out what is the racial makeup, in terms of %, compose the police forces of the United States."

"But, if you go on FBI Table 43A you will see back in 2013-2014 as the data will show that almost 10 million white males have been arrested to 3 o 4 million black males roughly. White people out number every other race in every crime category you can think of. But you know they always have an excuse for why they out number every race in crime statistic is that they make up 72 % of the American population. I can’t tell you how many times I shot this argument down. But here I go once again.

According to the Bureau of Census, in 1996, 73% of the 264. 6 million who live in the U. S. are White. However, according to the MacMillan Almanac, most Puerto Ricans are automatically defined as White by the U. S. Census. Furthermore, any Latin who claims to be White is counted White by the Census Bureau, and all babies born to White women are defined as White, regardless of the father’s race, unless the mother makes a request that her baby be classified as non-White. If a half-Black man and a White woman have 10 children, they are all counted as one big White family. Therefore, the number of American Whites is extremely less than 72% Then to add to that Consumer Report came out with stat that 80% of the smart phones sold in America are owned by black people. This means that if you are 70% of the population and black people being 13 we should not in any instance out pace you in purchasing power. The question you should ask yourself is this, how many traditional white people make up that 70% yall claim to have outside of the other races who are not white who check white on the US Census? You are not counting the biracial, Hispanics, and Latins who also mark white on the census. So please white blonde blue eye people do not make up that whole 70% to claim that is the reason you commit more crime.

How are you 63 of the population and black people allegedly being 13% but yet we have 80% of the smart phones in this country? That means if you out number us by 6 times we should not out pace you in purchasing power for anything. 13% can not equate to 80% ownership if the so called dominant race represents 60 percent of the country. Even when you look at the Nielson Report’ on who watches more TV according to the popular hit show ”Empire” it reported that African Americans watch more TV then any other race in the country. Again this would not be possible if we only (black people) make up 13% of the country. We would not have a hit show for our small dismal 13% of the country’s demographic. So this should tell you that there are way more black people in this country then previously conceived.

But wait didn’t they just arrest 36 white people for food stamp fraud in New York a month ago? Nationally, most of the people who receive benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are white. According to 2013 data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which administers the program, 40.2 percent of SNAP recipients are white, 25.7 percent are black, 10.3 percent are Hispanic, 2.1 percent are Asian and 1.2 percent are Native American. This was reported in the Huffington post. White people are on more government assistance then any race. Again’ this is another indication that even though you make up a small percent of the country you still dominate the welfare benefits. Remember when Rick Santorum was running a couple of years ago and he said black people make up 80% of the welfare programs in Florida? Well the next day Scott Pelley of CBS News came out and said on prime time television that that was a lie and say actually that white people make up 90% of the government programs toward those who are unemployed."

"Somewhere in the deep recesses of the white mind, white people have convinced themselves that they are the innocent victims being terrorized by the Dark-skinned Negro. Somewhere in their minds, their crimes against humanity and against the entire planet have been replaced by a selective amnesia where they have forgotten the most important factor in this equation: Race was their idea. Race was their construct. Race was their political tool for wealth. They are deathly afraid of the repercussions for their crimes against the Original Human. They fixate on our would-be revenge because they know intrinsically what awaits them in the near future. They feel their impending doom lurking beneath their nice houses, new cars and full-time jobs with 2-week vacations. Nothing they do or say now in the name of “righteousness” will make their karma less devastating. And they know this.They sense this.This is what drives them to buy gun, after gun, after gun. Fear is caused by wrongdoing.This is why they cannot be in peace. They are deathly afraid not of us, but of their own extinction caused by their own actions."

#dear white people #white people twitter #white ppl #white priveledge #share #do it for the greater good #spread the message #spread this #raise awareness #raiseawareness #help post #help plez #help please

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96thdayofrage · 3 years

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Enjoy your $600 stimulus check.

Not long ago, I wrote about how America’s ultrawealthy—folks with assets of $30 million and up—had enjoyed a full V-shaped recovery by the end of August, even as small businesses and poor and middle class families were still reeling from pandemic shutdowns and job losses. The moderately wealthy have also been doing just fine. But America’s billionaires are doing better than fine. Over the past 10 months, according to a new analysis of Forbes data by the Institute for Policy Studies and Americans for Tax Fairness, billionaires’ wealth in the United States has grown by almost 40 percent.

The numbers are astounding. From March 2020 to January 2021:

The total wealth of US billionaires increased by $1.1 trillion, from $3 trillion to $4.1 trillion

46 new billionaires have been minted.

A few—hello, Elon!—have seen asset gains of more than 500 percent

On average, the 15 wealthiest billionaires saw their assets increase by 59 percent

The combined fortunes of America’s 660 billionaires is now almost 71 percent higher than the combined wealth of the entire bottom half of the population—165 million people.

The booming stock market is part of the explanation, of course. In 2019, according to a proprietary analysis by Goldman Sachs, the wealthiest 1 percent owned a staggering 59 percent of all public and private corporate shares. So that stands to reason.

The starting point used in the analysis is March 18, 2020, a few days after stocks took a quick, deep hit before rebounding to record highs. From March 2020 to January 2021, the S&P 500, for example, returned more than 43 percent, if dividends were reinvested. (The researchers chose that start date because “by then most federal and state economic restrictions responding to the virus were in place,” and March 18 was also the publication date of Forbes’ annual billionaires report, the source of their baseline data.)

“A lot of these billionaire wealth surges are the result of companies that have benefited from the artificial conditions created by the pandemic,” notes IPS’s Chuck Collins, co-author of Billionaire Bonanza 2020, a separate report that examines pandemic profiteering. “Amazon, Walmart, Target—they have all benefited from having their competition shut down.”

But this doesn’t explain all of the gains. If the superrich had merely held onto their assets from last January until now, their stocks would have gained only 16.4 percent—a fine profit, but nothing like the gains the average billionaire has reaped.

Averages are misleading when guys like Elon Musk (whose net worth rose by 630 percent) and used-car mogul Ernest Garcia, II (the pandemic’s biggest “whale,” with gains of 657 percent) are in the mix. But among the 600 or so billionaires for which IPS/ATF have data, the median gain was about 25 percent. What’s going on here?

Well, cash is going on. A partial answer can be found in this chart from the 2020 World Ultra Wealth Report from Wealth-X (no link is available), which tracks and sells economic data pertaining to the super-rich.

Prior to COVID, liquid assets made up 38 percent of the holdings of the ultrawealthy. Indeed, several sources featured in my upcoming book told me that this has helped them weather the pandemic, and then some. “As it turns out, I had a lot of cash,” noted Jerry Fiddler, a former tech CEO who happens to be a member of Patriotic Millionaires, a group of wealthy citizens who lobby for more equitable government policies. “My financial advisors were saying there’s all this great stuff, and I’m saying, yeah, I like having a lot of cash right now.”

This “great stuff” might include investments in things like video conferencing tech (Zoom, Microsoft, etc.) and telemedicine, which have benefited greatly from school and office shutdowns. Big Pharma is obviously winning, too, Collins points out: “And then there is the rise of the mega ‘rent extractors’—Doordash, AirBnB, Instacart going public, Google, Apple—they aren’t doing the work but they and the apps and cloud-based technologies are extracting from every transaction.” In addition, ultra-low interest rates, enabled by the Federal Reserve, have helped prop up markets and made borrowing cheap. Wealthy people, with solid access to capital under normal circumstances, can now borrow at very low rates, invest that cash selectively, and make a killing. Most of the biggest winners are not household names.

But some of the household names, including Twitter’s Jack Dorsey from above, fared quite well…

Roughly half of Americans, meanwhile, stand a few paychecks away from destitution. They don’t have cash to invest, let alone 38 percent of their total assets—which, for most people, wouldn’t be very much anyway. To this stark contrast, we can add the $161 billion in tax breaks for corporations and wealthy business owners that Republican lobbyists slipped into the CARES Act in March, and the $120 billion “double dip” (bipartisan!) tax provision in the latest COVID relief bill, both of which will overwhelmingly benefit America’s wealthiest.

The billionaires’ $1.1 overall pandemic profit, the analysts calculate, is enough to pay for all of the aid to working families in President Biden’s proposed relief package.

Now, a few of the names on this list have been doling out large sums for COVID relief, like Bill and Melinda Gates, Michael Bloomberg, and most notably, MacKenzie Scott. Early in the pandemic, Dorsey pledged $1 billion—then about one-quarter of his net worth—to help everyday Americans. In fact, the superwealthy have really opened up their wallets this year—as they should—for pandemic relief and racial equity.

The punchline: On the whole, even the most generous of these billionaires has made far more money this past year than they have given away. Even Scott, who surpassed all others by a long shot, giving away $4.2 billion, on top of almost $1.7 billion in social justice giving, ended up immensely wealthier than before. The rich get richer. Always.

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radical-archives · 4 years

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Women in US government (2015 statistics)

Women in Congress currently hold 19.4% of 535 seats.

There are only 3 women in the US Supreme Court.

Women hold only 20% of the 100 seats in the Senate.

Women hold only 19.3% of 435 seats in the House.

Women hold only 25% of 312 statewide executive seats.

Women hold only 25% of 5411 seats in the State House/Assembly.

Only 24.3% of women hold 7383 seats in State Legislature.

Only 17% of 100 seats belong to women mayors in the 100 largest cities.

Only 18.4% of women hold 1393 seats as mayors in cities over 30,000.

Women in the media (2015 statistics)

Film:

Men were 73 percent of all Hollywood TV writers in 2012. Women were 27 percent.

Women television writers earned about 92 cents for every dollar that white male writers earned in 2012, a penny more than the 91 cents women earned in 2009.

Men writing for film accounted for 85 percent of all screenwriters. Women represented 15 percent. That compared to 17 percent in 2009 and meant that men screenwriters outnumbered women screenwriters by a more than 3 to 1 margin.

Women film writers earned 77 cents for every dollar earned by white male film writers in 2012, down from 82 cents in 2009.

The share of minority television writers rose to 11 percent in 2012 from 10 percent in 2009. But, by a 3 to 1 margin, white TV writers outnumbered minority TV writers.

Minorities represented 6 percent of film writers for the decade ending in 2009, when that rate fell to 5 percent. In 2012, the figure remained at 5 percent, which meant that minorities were outnumbered by 7 to 1.

While writers aged 41 to 50 got most of the gigs in Hollywood, that reality largely reversed itself once those writers turned 60.

Facebook’s Workforce is:

69 percent male overall, and 77 percent male in the leadership ranks.

57 percent white, 34 percent Asian, 4 percent Latino, 3 percent bi-racial or multi-racial and 2 percent Black overall.

Of workers in tech jobs, 85 percent were male and 15 percent were female.

Of all those tech workers, 53 percent were white, 41 percent were Asian, 3 percent were Latino, 2 percent were bi-racial or multi-racial and 1 percent was black.

Of workers in non-tech sectors, 53 percent were male and 47 percent were female.

Of non-tech sector jobs, 63 percent were held by whites, 24 percent by Asians, 6 percent by Latinos, 4 percent by bi-racial or multi-racial persons, 2 percent by blacks and 1 percent by people of some other race.

Google’s Workforce:

70 percent of all workers were male and 61 percent of them were white.

Additionally, men accounted for 79 percent of Google executives, 83 percent of tech workers and 52 percent of its non-tech workers as of January 2014, the month for which Google calculated data it released to the public in August 2014.

LinkdIn:

75 percent of LinkedIn’s leaders were male.

Of all company leaders, 65 percent were white, 28 percent were Asian, 4 percent were Latino, 3 percent were bi-racial or multi-racial, and 1 percent each was black or some other race.

53 percent of all LinkedIn workers in the United States were white, 38 percent were Asian, 4 percent were Latino, 2 percent were black, 2 percent were bi-racial or multi-racial and 1 percent was of some other race.

83 percent of LinkedIn workers in tech jobs were male.

Racially, 60 percent of tech workers were Asian, 34 percent were white, 3 percent were Latino and 1 percent each were black, bi-racial or multi-racial, or some other ethnicity.

Of those in non-tech jobs, 53 percent were male and 47 percent were female. Racially, 63 percent of non-tech job-holders were white, 26 percent were Asian, 5 percent were Latino, 3 percent each were black or bi-racial/multi-racial and 1 percent was some other race.

Yahoo:

Of Yahoo employees who were at least vice presidents or even higher up the corporate ladder, 77 percent were men, according to Figures Yahoo Chief Development Officer Jacqueline Reses released in June 2014.

Yahoo has a female CEO, Marissa Mayer.

Men held 85 percent of Yahoo tech jobs and 47 percent of non-tech jobs.

Yahoo provided a racial breakdown for its U.S. workforce only: 50 percent of employees were white, 39 percent were Asian, 4 percent were Latino, 2 percent each were black, of mixed race or did not disclose their race. In the C-suite of Yahoo’s U.S. offices, 78 percent of executives were white; 17 percent were Asian; 2 percent each were either Latino, of mixed race or did not disclose their race; and 1 percent was black.

Apple:

Men comprised 70 percent of computer, mobile giant Apple’s workforce Apple reported that seven out of 10 members of its global workforce are men. The Cupertino, California-based company’s announcement was based on summer 2014 personnel data.

Apple reported that females accounted for: 28 percent of its leader ranks. 35 percent of its non-tech employees.

20 percent of its tech employees.

On-screen development:

By race, 74 percent of female characters were white, 14 percent were black, 6 percent were Asian, 5 percent were Latina and 1 percent were some other ethnicity.

Women actors had 42 percent of all speaking parts, a drop of 1 percent from 2012-13 but higher than 1997- 98’s 39 percent.

As women characters aged, they were less likely to be cast. Of all female characters, 32 percent were in their 30s and 17 percent were in their 40s. The respective Figures for male characters were 33 percent and 25 percent.

Males directed 86 percent of all TV episodes.

White males directed 7 out of 10 episodes.

All women and minority men, combined, directed 3 out of 10 episodes.

Men of color directed 17 percent of all episodes, an increase over the previous year.

White women directed 12 percent of all episodes, the same rate as the previous year.

Women of color directed 2 percent of all episodes, the same rate as the previous year.

Overall, by age, 59 percent of female characters were in their 20s and 30s, while 58 percent of male characters were in their 30s and 40s.

Of all characters, 3 percent of females and 4 percent of males were older than 60.

Females accounted for 46 percent of characters in programs with at least one female writer and 39 percent of characters in shows with no female writers.

Females accounted for 47 percent of the cast in shows with at least one female creator and 39 percent of the cast in shows with no female creators.

In that cumulative category, these researchers concluded that in 2013-14 women were: 40 percent of producers, which was up from 38 percent in 2012-13. 26 percent of writers in 2013-14, down from 30 percent in 2012-13. 21 percent of executive producers, down from 24 percent in 2012-13.

19 percent of creators, down from 23 percent in 2012-13.

16 percent of editors, which was unchanged from 2012-13.

13 percent of directors, up from 11 percent in 2012-13.

1 percent of directors of photography, down from 2 percent in 2012-13.

Women in video game development:

Overall, 48 percent of gamers were female.

Women and men each purchased 50 percent of video games.

Women aged 18 and older were 36 percent of gamers, while boys aged 18 and younger were 17 percent of gamers.

On average, all adult gamers have been playing for 16 years; women have been playing for 13 years, on average, and men for an average of 18 years

Online Harassment:

Of young women aged 18-24, 26 percent said they had been stalked online and 25 percent said they were sexually harassed online, and that some of those threats were sustained over an extended period. In addition, women said “they do not escape the heightened rates of physical threats and sustained harassment common to their male peers and young people in general.” Women were more likely than men to find their most recent experience with online harassment extremely or very upsetting; 38 percent of those women and 17 percent of those men described their suffering in those terms.

Although they hold almost 52 percent of all professional-level jobs, American women lag substantially behind men when it comes to their representation in leadership positions (source):

They are only 14.6 percent of executive officers, 8.1 percent of top earners, and 4.6 percent of Fortune 500 CEOs.

They hold just 16.9 percent of Fortune 500 board seats.

In the financial services industry, they make up 54.2 percent of the labor force, but are only 12.4 percent of executive officers, and 18.3 percent of board directors. None are CEOs.

They account for 78.4 percent of the labor force in health care and social assistance but only 14.6 percent of executive officers and 12.4 percent of board directors. None, again, are CEOs.

In the legal field, they are 45.4 percent of associates—but only 25 percent of nonequity partners and 15 percent of equity partners.

In medicine, they comprise 34.3 percent of all physicians and surgeons but only 15.9 percent of medical school deans.

In information technology, they hold only 9 percent of management positions and account for only 14 percent of senior management positions at Silicon Valley startups.

White men–by overwhelming numbers–hold the majority of power, wealth, and authority in the US.

Now that we have covered how women are oppressed by men in America, let’s look at the demographics of US women vs. other regions worldwide in violence statistics.

Regional data (source):

The report represents data regionally according to WHO regions.

For intimate partner violence, the type of violence against women for which more data were available, the worst affected regions were:

South-East Asia - 37.7% prevalence. Based on aggregated data from Bangladesh, Timor-Leste (East Timor), India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand.

Eastern Mediterranean - 37% prevalence. Based on aggregated data from Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine.

Africa – 36.6% prevalence. Based on aggregated data from Botswana, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

For combined intimate partner and non-partner sexual violence or both among all women of 15 years or older, prevalence rates were as follows:

Africa – 45.6%

Americas – 36.1%

Eastern Mediterranean – 36.4%* (No data were available for non-partner sexual violence in this region)

Europe – 27.2%

South-East Asia – 40.2%

Western Pacific – 27.9%

High income countries – 32.7%

Violence against women in high-income countries:

In Canada a study of adolescents aged 15 to 19 found that 54 per cent of girls had experienced “sexual coercion” in a dating relationship. v

In the United States, 83 percent of girls aged 12 to 16 experience some for of sexual harassment in public schools. xviii

The United States is the third country with the highest rape statistics.

Another source on how the US has awful sexual assault rates.

The United States is rated one of the highest countries in the world for violence.

The US is a terrible place for women.

22 countries where the gender wage gap is smaller than the US

U.S. women are more likely to die during childbirth than women in any other developed country, leading the U.S. to be ranked 33rd among 179 countries on the health and well-being of women and children.

US women paid less in every industry.

The U.S. ranks high on education and economic opportunities for women. But it ranks 60th on political empowerment, compared to Canada’s (ranked 20th overall) 42nd position.

[compiled by @question-the-status-quo on this post]

#radfems #terfs #terfs please interact #feminism #gender equality #inequality #media #government #sources

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robertreich · 5 years

Video

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Should We Abolish Billionaires?

America now has more billionaires than at any time in history, while most Americans are struggling to make ends meet. With such staggering inequality, it’s fair to ask: should we abolish billionaires?

There are basically only four ways to accumulate a billion dollars -- and none of them is a product of so-called free market capitalism.

Billionaires themselves aren’t the problem. The real failure is in how our economy is organized.

One way to make a billion is to exploit a monopoly.

Jeff Bezos is worth $150 billion. You might say he deserves this because he founded and built Amazon. But Amazon is a monopoly with nearly 50 percent of all e-commerce retail sales in America (and e-commerce is one of the largest sectors of all retail sales). Consumers have few alternatives.

Nor do many suppliers who sell through Amazon; for the first 25 years of its existence, Amazon wouldn’t let them sell at a lower price anywhere else. And Amazon’s business is protected by patents granted Amazon by the U.S. government and enforced by government.

If we had tough anti-monopoly laws, and if the government didn’t grant Amazon so many patents and trademarks, Bezos would be worth far less.

The same applies to people like George Lucas, Oprah Winfrey, or any other figure whose brands, ideas or creations depend on copyrights and trademarks, which are laws that have been dramatically extended in recent decades.

If these were shortened, these people would be worth far less, too.

A second way to make a billion is to get insider information unavailable to other investors.

The hedge-fund maven Steven A. Cohen is worth an estimated $12.8 billion. Now, how did he do it? According to a criminal complaint filed by the Justice Department, insider trading at Cohen’s SAC Capital was “substantial, pervasive, and on a scale without known precedent in the hedge fund industry.”

Eight of Cohen’s present or former employees pleaded guilty or convicted for using insider information. Cohen got off with a fine, changed the name of the firm, and apparently is still at it.

A third way to make a billion is to pay off politicians.

The Trump tax cut was estimated to save Charlesand David Koch– each of whose net worth is estimated to be about $50 billion -- and their Koch Industries -- 1 to 1.4 billion dollarsa year,not even counting tax savings on offshore profits and a shrunken estate tax.

The Kochs and their affiliated groups spent an estimated $20 million lobbying for the Trump tax cut, including major donations to politicians.

Not a bad return on investment: More than a billion dollars a year back for $20 million put in.

Koch Industries has also been a major beneficiary of government programs to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, provide roads and access to virgin growth forests, use eminent domain to seize private land for oil and gas pipelines, get oil subsidies, andprofit off federal lands.

A fourth way to be a billionaire is to get the money from rich parents or relatives.

About 60 percent of all the wealth in America today is inherited.

That’s because, under U.S. tax law – which is itself largely a product of lobbying by the wealthy – the capital gains of one generation are wiped out when those assets are transferred to the next, and the estate tax is so tiny that only 0.2 percent of estates were even subject to it in 2017.

America is creating a new aristocracy of people who never worked a day in their lives.

Let's abolish billionaires by changing the way the economy is organized.

This doesn’t mean confiscating the wealth and assets of the super rich. It does mean getting rid of monopolies, stopping the use of insider information, preventing the rich from buying off politicians, and making it harder for the super-rich to avoid paying taxes.

In other words, creating a system in which economic gains are shared more widely.

Entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos would be just as motivated by say, a $100 million or even $50 million.

But the cost to our democracy of billionaires with enough wealth and power to dictate the rules of capitalism for their own benefit is incalculable.

#video #videos

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Today’s Super Tuesday, and while there will be a lot of focus on the really big states like California and Texas, every contest will matter if the race turns into a prolonged battle for delegates all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July — as seems likely. With that in mind, we’re going to take a quick tour through four Super Tuesday states in the South: Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee.1

In each of these contests, former Vice President Joe Biden is favored to win statewide and in most delegate districts, though his edge varies quite a bit from state to state. So let’s run through what we know about each, going from largest to smallest by delegate count. (One important warning before we start: We have limited polling for these states, which means we don’t have a lot to go on outside of what the model figures based on data from demographically and geographically similar states. We also have little polling overall conducted after former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar exited the race and endorsed Biden. In other words, we don’t have a great picture of what to expect today — in any state, but especially in these contests; the model is therefore accounting for a lot of uncertainty, and you should too.)

Up first is Tennessee, where our forecast shows Biden with about a 2 in 3 (68 percent) chance of finishing first. Sanders has a 1 in 4 (25 percent) shot of carrying the state, and Bloomberg has roughly a 1 in 20 (5 percent) chance. Warren, too, has a small chance of winning (1 percent).

These candidates’ statewide performances will decide 22 of Tennessee’s 64 pledged delegates. Our model forecasts Biden to win 34 percent of the overall vote, on average, while Sanders and Bloomberg are not far behind at 27 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Lastly among the last four competitive candidates left in the race, Warren’s average forecasted share is 14 percent.

The Volunteer State’s other 42 delegates will be determined by the vote in each of Tennessee’s nine congressional districts. Who reaches the 15 percent mark in those seats and statewide will determine who wins delegates in Tennessee, as is true everywhere else. As things stand, our forecast suggests that Biden and Sanders are most likely to win at least one district, though Bloomberg is also in a good position to finish above the 15 percent mark across the state. Warren is right around 15 percent in most districts, so how much she outperforms — or underperforms — will determine whether she can get a piece of the delegate pie. (One other thing: We have no idea what effect the tornado strikes early this morning might have on the vote in some parts of Tennessee, particularly near Nashville, except that turnout might be lower in the affected areas.)

Biden and Sanders lead the Tennessee districts

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Tennessee congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren TN-01 28% 30% 21% 16% TN-02 29 30 20 16 TN-03 31 29 20 15 TN-04 31 30 19 15 TN-05 34 27 20 14 TN-06 30 30 20 16 TN-07 31 30 19 16 TN-08 35 27 19 14 TN-09 46 21 19 9 State 34 27 20 14

Most of the districts have pretty similar outcomes, except for the 9th Congressional District centered on Memphis. It’s a strongly Democratic, majority-black district, so Biden’s strength with African American voters — as seen in South Carolina — gives him a real boost there. Biden also has an edge in the only other Democratic-leaning seat in the state, the 5th Congressional District located around Nashville, which has a larger nonwhite voter base than any Tennessee district save the 9th. Bloomberg and Biden perform better or worse in most of the same districts, as they both tend to be stronger in areas with more voters of color and less wealth.

On the flip side, Sanders runs nearest to Biden in the 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th Congressional districts — four of the six districts in Tennessee that are more than 80 percent white. He’s very slightly ahead of Biden in the 1st and 2nd, which represent eastern Tennessee along the North Carolina border. Just as Biden and Bloomberg’s projected vote shares at the district level are similarly stronger or weaker, the same is true of Sanders and Warren.

Next up on our tour is Alabama, where the model gives Biden his strongest chance of victory among this quartet of states. He has about a 11 in 12 (91 percent) shot at winning the Cotton State, while Sanders and Bloomberg have a 1 in 20 (5 percent) and 1 in 30 (3 percent) chance, respectively.

The candidates’ statewide vote shares will allocate 18 of Alabama’s 52 pledged delegates to the national convention, and it looks like Biden might be in a position to win quite a few of them. His average forecasted vote share is 44 percent statewide, well ahead of 21 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Bloomberg and 12 percent for Warren.

Alabama’s remaining 34 pledged delegates are apportioned by the candidate performances in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. The model shows Biden is likely to carry every district in the state, while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a close fight for second in many of the seats. Warren looks a bit off the pace in Alabama, but she could hit 15 percent in a couple places if she overperforms her polling across the board. In particular, the 6th Congressional District looks like her strongest.

Biden is likely to win all across Alabama

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Alabama congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren AL-01 43% 21% 19% 12% AL-02 45 20 19 12 AL-03 43 22 19 12 AL-04 36 25 20 14 AL-05 39 23 19 14 AL-06 38 24 19 15 AL-07 51 17 18 9 State 44 21 19 12

Biden has a clear edge across all districts in Alabama, but most notably in the 7th Congressional District, a heavily Democratic, majority-black seat that has far and away the most delegates of any Alabama district (eight). As in other Southern states, Biden’s support tends to be highly correlated with the black share of the population in each district, as is Bloomberg’s. And here, too, Bloomberg’s projected vote and Biden’s projected vote correspond strongly to one another. The same is true of Sanders’s and Warren’s vote shares, with their strongest districts being the 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional districts from the northern tip of the state down into central Alabama. Each of those districts is whiter than the state as a whole (at least 70 percent), and in two of them (the 5th and 6th), at least 30 percent of the adult population has a college degree.

Shifting west to the meeting point between the South and the Great Plains, we have Oklahoma, which our forecast suggests is more competitive than Alabama but slightly less so than Tennessee. Here too Biden has the best chance of winning with about a 4 in 5 (78 percent) shot, but our forecast also gives Sanders about a 1 in 6 (18 percent) chance. Although she was born in Oklahoma, Warren only has a 1 in 50 (2 percent) shot of winning the state, the same chance as Bloomberg.

Our model’s average forecasted statewide vote shares show Biden out ahead with 34 percent, 9 points in front of Sanders’s 25 percent. Meanwhile, Bloomberg and Warren are both projected to get about 17 percent statewide.

Oklahoma’s other 24 pledged delegates will be allocated by the vote shares in each of the Sooner State’s five congressional districts. Based on our forecast, Biden looks likely to win each district while Sanders finishes in second. But both Bloomberg and Warren are projected to clear the 15 percent threshold in every Oklahoma district, so the Sooner State appears to be the most likely contest of the four we’re looking at here to deliver delegates from every part of the state to all four leading candidates.

Four candidates could get delegates out of Oklahoma

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Oklahoma congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren OK-01 34% 25% 18% 17% OK-02 35 26 16 17 OK-03 34 26 16 17 OK-04 34 26 17 17 OK-05 35 24 18 16 State 34 25 17 17

And that all four candidates could get a piece of each district speaks to the fact that Oklahoma’s five congressional districts are relatively similar demographically speaking. Moreover, Oklahoma has relatively small shares of black and Hispanic voters — around 10 percent or less for both statewide — and both groups, particularly African American voters, help explain some of the district-level variation in other states. One other demographic group to note is Oklahoma’s sizable number of American Indians — they also make up almost one-tenth of the state’s population — though it’s unclear if they’ll swing toward one candidate in particular.

Our last stop is Arkansas, which the model pegs as the most wide-open race out of the four states we’re analyzing here. Biden has the best chance of victory, with about a 7 in 10 (69 percent) shot of finishing first. Bloomberg has a 1 in 6 (17 percent) chance of winning, while Sanders has about a 1 in 8 (12 percent) shot. Warren has just a 1 in 100 (1 percent) chance.

Arkansas’s projected statewide vote shares are somewhat reminiscent of Alabama’s in that Biden leads while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a race for second. However, Arkansas is less of a sure bet for Biden. Warren is well back of the pack at 15 percent.

Arkansas’s remaining 20 pledged delegates are apportioned by the vote in the Natural State’s four congressional districts, but only one seat — the 3rd Congressional District — looks pretty close. Biden has double-digit leads in the other three seats but Bloomberg and Sanders are close behind in the 3rd. Warren does have a chance of getting to 15 percent across the board.

Biden looks strong in Arkansas

Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Arkansas congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3

District Biden Bloomberg Sanders Warren AR-01 37 24 22 14 AR-02 36 25 22 15 AR-03 29 25 25 17 AR-04 37 24 22 14 State 35 25 23 15

Biden’s bigger leads come in the three districts that are between 15 and 25 percent African American. But the 3rd Congressional District in northwest Arkansas — home to Wal-Mart — is less than 5 percent black, which helps explain why it’s the most competitive. It may be no coincidence that the 3rd is also Warren’s best seat, as it’s also the home of the University of Arkansas’s flagship campus in Fayetteville.

Taken together, these states don’t have much polling data to work with, but if Biden’s strength in South Carolina portends his performance in the South, we could see him racking up delegates here. But there’s also an opportunity for Bloomberg to pick up delegates and become a player in the race, too. Sanders has an outside shot of winning Tennessee and has his best chance of winning some districts there. If Sanders can win at least one of these states outright, that could help him not only win delegates but also run up the win count across the country on Super Tuesday. So definitely be prepared for surprises in these contests.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

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missjosie27 · 4 years

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Year 1 Part 8- Trapped in Ice

Hey, guys! Back with another chapter of my story! For those of you who are Merula fans (which includes myself) there is a lot of her in it, unfortunately though, she’s still a bratty first year haha. Please leave a comment or thought if you’d like:) I’d love feedback. Enjoy!

Unfortunately for David, the excursion into the 13th corridor was the furthest he would get to solving the mystery of the vault for quite some time. As well as their increasing schoolwork, teacher patrols, as well as the presence of Filch visibly increased. David supposed it might have been his imagination, but on the rare occasions he crossed paths with the grumpy caretaker, he could have sworn he received several ‘stink-eyes’. Perhaps, their escape from Mrs. Norris had been a closer shave than they originally thought.

“It seems like the whole faculty is on edge,” Rowan observed one day as spoke in Charms. “Do you really think the situation with the cursed vaults is that serious?”

In truth, David had no idea. He was still nowhere closer to finding the truth about these vaults than anyone else and it didn’t appear as though the Professors had much idea either. But knowing more about them meant knowing more about Jacob and if possible, the key to finding him.

The young Gryffindor didn’t entertain the idea very often that such a thing was possible. His brother had been gone for years and it he had taught himself as soon as he was old enough to understand, that it was best to think of him that way permanently. But coming to Hogwarts changed everything. If there was even the slightest chance…

“Serious enough for them to keep everyone away from them,” David surmised, as he tried to lift his feather off the desk (‘Wingardium Leviosa’ was today’s lesson). “By the way, did you discover anything on that weird language we found?”

“Nothing as of now,” Rowan sighed. “It’s probably pretty ancient to begin with, but the biggest problem is that I didn’t have enough time to properly discern what it was. Sadly, the library holds no answers.”

“Then we need to go back and take a closer look.”

“Normally, I’d hesitate about possibly getting caught again but it’s pretty urgent that we go back. There are rumors…”

David raised his eyebrows, his concentration diverted from his feather.

“What do you mean?”

Rowan looked as though he didn’t want to get into specifics, but a hard stare from his best friend forced his hand.

“Some of the Slytherins keep mentioning Merula is going after the vaults herself.”

At that moment, the feather David was casting on exploded in a bevy of flames, earning him a shake of the head from Professor Flitwick.

“I do believe you’ll be practicing that charm for homework, Mr. Grant. It’s not often I see a student make a feather burst into flame.”

Rowan started laughing while David began to sulk. He would take all of the extra charms work in the world if it meant Merula didn’t so much as sniff a cursed vault. Merlin only knew what someone like her if she ever came across the inside of one: wealth, power, ancient secrets of alchemy, whatever it was, the Slytherin girl couldn’t be allowed to get there first.

The race was officially on.

More roadblocks were to follow, however. The next two times the two boys tried investigating the 13th corridor, they were nearly caught again- once by Filch, who had his shackles ratting menacingly, and the other by Snape and each instance was closer than the last. Clearly, their frequent tips were being noticed and after the Potions Master nearly nabbed them lurking, they decided to put on hold any further activity until they came up with a proper plan.

Well November turned into December and December turned into January. The holidays passed without much incident as David endured a happy but awkward reunion with his parents at Christmas. Evidently, Dumbledore and McGonagall had been kind enough not to mention his early run ins and so did not bring them up. Even so, the shadow of Jacob loomed over the Grant household. The morning of the 25th always held an underlying melancholy to it. It only served to motivate him more to find the vaults.

However, even with the extra motivation, things stalled even more as winter turned to spring. In contrast to the jam packed action of the fall, Hogwarts had become standard procedure than anything else. Classes were normal, homework steady, Quidditch matches in abundance, and the halls of the school were abuzz with the usual assortment of chatter and gossip. David continued to spend most of his time around Rowan, Ben, with the occasional Weasley joining them for tea. Penny and her Hufflepuff friends were also frequent visitors. By the time April ended and entered into May, David hadn’t necessarily forgotten about the vaults or Jacob. But the school had a habit of sucking you into a routine not easily broken.

It was only when a bona fide enemy gave him a nudge did the race resume its frantic pace.

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The nudge came during a random potions class.

Merula’s incessant bullying had lessened considerably since their duel. She was still aggressive and obnoxious, but she had learned to pick and choose her battles to a certain degree, reserving her worst in the form of insults and taunts that could just as easily be ignored. But this particular class, to disregard her would be unwise.

As David and Rowan sat down in their usual seats, so did Merula and her evil smirk was out in full force. Instead of throwing her usual jumble of sardonic remarks, she simply stared at them.

“What?” he asked her, not in the mood to deal with whatever antics she had in mind.

“A thought just occurred to me, Grant, have you told anyone about what we heard awhile back between Snape and Filch?”

“No,” he answered quickly hoping to end the conversation right then and there.

“You’re such a terrible liar,” she sassed him. “I know you’ve told four eyes next to you and maybe that complete coward Copper.”

“Why do you care?”

“Because I want to make sure you don’t jeopardize my own chances of finding the vaults,” she replied as if the answer were obvious. “You almost ruined it once last semester.”

A thought occurred to David that he hadn’t considered. Merula was dead set on discovering the cursed vaults but her motivations remained a mystery to him.

“Why are you after them, anyway, Merula?

“None your business.”

It was moments such as these that really pushed his patience. The Slytherin loved to dish it out but couldn’t take it in return. Pushing and prodding until her opponents slipped and then she would retreat.

“On the contrary,” he said. “It’s entirely my damn business. My brother was searching for these vaults and I’d rather not see the most annoying witch at Hogwarts get her hands on them.”

“Make all the jokes you want, Grant. I will get to them before you,” the Slytherin girl challenged him, her violet eyes twinkling darkly. “Now shut up and pretend to study before Snape catches us talking about the vaults.”

He had no time to retort as the Potions Master began his lecture on the forgetfulness potion at which students were invited to talk at their peril. Still, it took a tremendous amount of effort on David’s part to stay focused on his brew and not let Merula get under his skin. Loathe as he was to admit it, her natural talent at potions surpassed his, and it was difficult enough to concentrate without her constant attempts at sabotage.

Thankfully, with Rowan’s help, he was able to stay on track, reading the ingredients board twice before gathering, chopping, and measuring what he needed. He triple checked the instructions in the book for good measure and by the time class was at its end, it appeared that he’d succeeded in maintaining his effort far better than Merula had. Far from her usual confidence, she was constantly scribbling notes in her book that in all likelihood had nothing to do with potions, only occasionally looking up to add ingredients or focus on her potion. In fact, her absentmindedness was such, that David had to warn her before she melted her cauldron.

“Merula.”

“What!? Grant, I’m trying to concentrate here.”

“Right. And I’m sure you’ll be able explain to everyone else here why your potion exploded because you stirred it five times clockwise instead of seven.”

“Shut up,” she shot back. “You don’t know what you’re talking about. I’m way better at potions than you.”

A deep clearing of the throat brought them both to the attention of Professor Snape, lurking over them like an overgrown bat. David wondered briefly if talking during class would dock him points but he need not have worried. For once, Snape seemed to be on his side.

“Much as I hate to acknowledge it, Grant is correct Miss Snyde. Seven turns clockwise is the correct number of times for this particular potion. I am disappointed in your lack of detail.”

He turned towards David, his usual leer somewhat less pronounced.

“I suppose a broken clock is right twice a day. A point to Gryffindor. Dismissed.”

The eleven year old was so shocked, he almost forgot to bottle a sample at the end of his class. Rowan could barely contain his glee.

“That was brilliant, Dave!” he remarked as they exited the dungeons. “Not only did you tell off Merula, you earned points from Snape of all people!”

“It was a single point,” he responded with a small chuckle. “Should have been fifty for saving his classroom from becoming a heap of rubble.”

“The fact that you got him to give you any points at all is a miracle in itself,” Rowan pointed out. “Based off conversations with older students, I’d say the odds of Snape giving points to Gryffindor are less than one percent.”

“The fact that you ever shut your trap Khanna, is a miracle,” came the nasty voice of Merula Snyde from behind them.

Both boys whipped around prepared to fight her if need be.

“If I wanted to duel you, I’d have hexed you already,” she said rolling her eyes.

“Then go away,” David told her. “I think we both know how that turned out for you the last time.”

Merula frowned and drew herself up in response.

“You got lucky, Grant. I promise the next one won’t end so well for you.”

David sighed. He really didn’t have the energy for a war of words with her right now.

“Is there something you want, Merula? Or can I go to my next class without you following me around.”

Stepping forward, the Slytherin girl’s face as now only a foot away from his, which was disconcerting to say the least.

“Well, this is awkward. I feel like you’re either going to spit on me or kiss me.”

“Shut up,” she snarled. “One successful potion and a house point doesn’t erase what you are, Grant: a failure. I’m going to get to those vaults first and when I do, Hogwarts will see me for the greatest witch that I am.”

David didn’t back nor did he blink. In fact, he upped the ante.

“You’re on, Merula. And when I find them before you, I hope you’re prepared for a big ‘I told you so.’”

The Slytherin girl merely gave a ‘hmph!’ and brushed past them with her shoulder and around the corner.

“That could come back to bite us,” Rowan observed, rubbing his chin.

“On the contrary, it’s an opportunity,” David disagreed. “She should know better than to try and out-bold a Gryffindor.”

“But what if she does find the vaults before us? We’re no closer than we were months ago.”

“Then we’ll just have to try that much harder, won’t we?”

David smiled reassuringly at his friend and though he felt a certain amount of anxiousness himself, the stakes were raised that much higher. He wasn’t about to let Merula connive her way to the cursed vaults, not when finding his brother was at stake.

I think it’s time I called in a few favors

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

It took some time to piece together but by dinner, David had formulated a plan in his mind to get to the 13th corridor and enter the mysterious door they had discovered back in November.

Step one was getting rid of Mrs. Norris. Without the pesky feline to bother them, Filch wouldn’t know what they were up to, allowing sufficient time to enter the door. If it was locked, hopefully Alohomora, the unlocking spell, would do the trick.

As to how to ensure Mrs. Norris was out of the way, there was a certain Hufflepuff who could assist with that.

“You sure she’ll do it, Dave?” Rowan asked, skeptically when he told him the plan.

“What do you want me to do? Ask Snape?”

“Good point.”

“Besides,” David pointed out as he caught sight of the pretty Hufflepuff entering the Great Hall for dinner. “She did say to ask if needed help with anything. And she’s the best in our year at Potions.”

Leaving his seat, with a mouth full of turkey in his mouth, he quickly swallowed it while managing to catch Penny before she reached her typical spot at the Hufflepuff table.

“Hey, Dave!” she said brightly. “You want to sit with us tonight?”

“Of course, but I was hoping I could talk to you privately for a quick second.”

“Sure. What’s going on?”

“Can you brew a sleeping draught?”

Penny raised her eyebrows, but otherwise gave no indication of surprise.

“I can, but what do you need it for?”

“It’s kind of a long story.”

It took less time than he originally thought, but David still had to ensure he didn’t leave out key details about his quest for the cursed vaults. He didn’t think Penny would say no, however it was still best to put her at ease as much as possible. Thankfully, she didn’t need much persuasion.

“So…will you help us? I know it’s a bit risky but…”

“Relax, Dave,” Penny laughed good naturedly. “Of course, I’ll help you.”

“Wicked! Thanks, Penny! So you don’t think I’m mad or dangerous to try and find these vaults?”

“The thing is, living with Tonks makes you a little less afraid to break rules,” she explained. “But I can tell how much this means to you, what with your brother and all. And I’d much rather see you reach these vaults than Merula,” she added frowning at the thought of the Slytherin. “I do have to warn you though; it’ll take me a week to brew it. It can be a tricky one if you’re not careful, plus all the homework we have.”

“No problem,” David said, immensely thankful for Penny’s assistance. “That gives me and Rowan more time to plan the next phase of the plan.”

“Which is?”

“We’ll need a third person for this trip,” David smiled. “And I know just the person.”

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Rowan, however, was not sold on Ben Copper coming with them to the mysterious door.

“Um, David, not to question you or anything but why exactly do you want to bring Ben? He’s not exactly the bravest Gryffindor in the world.”

“He’s jumpy, I’ll admit,” David shrugged as he sat in the common room finishing up a Transfiguration essay for Professor McGonagall (it was fast becoming one of his favorite subjects). “But that’s only when some of the Slytherins are around. And besides, you’ve seen how far he’s come this year, he’s almost not afraid of flying anymore.”

“Marvelous. That doesn’t mean he’s going to want to go into a cursed vault. He’ll probably run and hide the moment something goes wrong.”

“That’s the point, Rowan. Ben knows all the hiding places around here. He told me he used to find all sorts of rooms and spaces back when he tried to avoid Merula. Not to mention he’s the best at charms in our year by a mile. He doesn’t give himself enough credit.”

Rowan closed his History of Magic book, adjusting his glasses.

“And how do you plan to convince him to come along?”

“Guess we’re about to find out.”

Indeed, Ben had finally arrived in the common room, which was largely devoid of presence due to the last Quidditch match of the year about to commence. It was Ravenclaw versus Gryffindor, the latter of whom was about to finish last in the standings if they did not win today. It was depressing really, but then again Quidditch was still Quidditch.

“Charlie said you needed to talk to me?” he questioned he approached. “You guys know the game’s in ten minutes, right?”

“It can wait for a small little chat,” David said, getting up from his chair and greeting his friend warmly. “Especially for what we have in mind.”

That put Ben off guard and anxiety returned to his face.

“It’s not dangerous is it?”

“Not at all. Rowan and I are going to the locked door in the 13th corridor to try and find a cursed vault. Should be quite the fun.”

He had hoped a little levity might put him at ease, unfortunately, it only served to strike additional fear on his freckled face.

“You and I have a very different definition of ‘dangerous’. Why do you want to get inside the door anyway?”

“It’s simple, Ben,” David told him. He wasn’t going to baby his friend. He knew he could convince him with the right reasons. “My brother is out there somewhere and if these vaults lead me closer to what happened to him, I’m going to take that chance.”

“But why do you need me?” Ben continued to press.

(“That’s what I said,” Rowan muttered)

It was abundantly clear that despite the progress made over the year, he still didn’t feel adequate or brave enough for such an undertaking.

“I trust you, mate,” David responded, placing a hand on his shoulder. “And think of all the things you’ve been able to accomplish this year- wizard’s chess, flying, top of the class in Charms. You got what it takes and there’s no one else I’d have by my side.”

Though he sought to pump his meek friend up a bit, he meant and believed every word. Ben’s issues always stemmed from confidence, not ability. Having one more person take on the mystery of the door only ensured that chance of success was that much higher.

Thankfully, this finally seemed to convince Ben to come along.

“Alright, Dave. I trust you as well. If you really think I can help by going with you, I’ll go.”

“Excellent, I promise you, you won’t regret it. Now let’s go see our pathetic excuse for a Quidditch team get walloped by Ravenclaw.”

The three boys headed out of the common room and to the pitch and David could feel the adrenaline rush into his veins. Far from avoiding the vaults, he was coming around to the idea that finding them would uncover the mystery of where Jacob went off to. Talking about him still wasn’t his cup of tea but Merula’s challenge and constant taunts had lit a competitive fire within him. He wasn’t doing this for some abstract concept of power but for family.

“Just out of curiosity,” Ben asked interrupting his thought process as they walked down the corridor toward the grounds. “When exactly are we going to this door?”

“Just as soon as Penny finishes the sleeping draught,” he answered.

“We should probably wait until the weekend,” Rowan suggested. “Less people walking around to interfere.”

“Agreed.”

Indeed, there were only a few other minor details to take care of. Then, they would be ready at last.

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Time has a way of passing by according to wants and desires in a given moment. For David, the day couldn’t come sooner where they finally entered the mysterious door.

Of course, there were several variables to consider. Any number of them could go wrong. He and Rowan agreed to put the sleeping draught into a bowl of milk, levitating it to where Mrs. Norris would drink it. However, that still left open the possibility of Filch discovering his beloved cat knocked out cold, which would surely enrage the caretaker to the point of no return. Discovery by a professor would be almost as equally as perilous. Furthermore, there was no guarantee the unlocking spell would suffice to enter the room, as many things in the magical world had stronger safeguards against it. All of this wasn’t even taking into account what actually be behind the door should they breach it.

Rowan, always the consummate organizer and planner was quick to point all of this out, and David knew they were all valid points, but at this stage in the game, the only thing left to do was to actually go out and execute. He could remember Jacob telling him something similar when he was nine.

“Pip, sometimes it’s better not to think too much about something. You have to commit yourself to an idea and have the courage to see it through.”

He shook his head, still not overly fond of the nickname Jacob always used for him when he was little. Careful not to let emotional memories of his brother cloud his judgement, he willed himself to stay focused as he met Penny outside of the Great Hall for the sleeping draught.

“Here you go, Dave,” she said, discreetly handing him a mid sized bottle filled with whitish liquid. “I made sure to brew this one with a little extra strength. Should be more than enough to knock out that old cat.”

“I can’t thank you enough, Penny,” he said, taking the bottle and slipping into his robes. “If all goes well, this will be the key to knowing what’s behind that door.”

“Let me know what happens, okay?”

“Of course.”

“I’m serious, Dave,” and Penny gave him a look the happy go lucky blonde rarely ever used on him or anyone. “Please don’t get hurt. And I want to know if it leads you to finding your brother.”

Preventing a mixed tide of emotion from rising in his chest, he forced it down and assured his Hufflepuff friend that he would acquiesce to both her requests.

“I promise, Penny.”

Knowing that they were heading to the door that same night, she gave him an enveloping hug and went into dinner to join her respective table, the young Gryffindor privately touched by her gesture.

The hours ticked by rather slowly that night. David, Rowan, and Ben had to pretend to be doing something productive in the common room whilst the other Gryffindors hung out, relaxed, did homework, or studied for exams. Gobstones, exploding snap, even a few lame quizzing sessions from Rowan, they exercised every distraction in the book to remain inconspicuous. Finally, after Charlie gave a final yawn and wished everyone goodnight, the three boys were alone, ready for whatever tonight would bring.

“I still say this is a bad idea,” Ben muttered aloud.

“You’re not backing out now, are you?” Rowan appraised him.

“No,” the blonde boy said a little more firmly. “I said I would go, and I will. But that doesn’t I’m not frightened of what I might discover.”

David sat up from the couch, a healthy amount of anxiousness surging through him.

“A wise cracking, pink haired Hufflepuff told me once that bravery isn’t about not being scared, but doing what needs to be done despite being scared.”

“Really? Tonks said that of all people?”

He laughed at Ben’s remark.

“She may be a goofball, but she’s brilliant in her own way.” He looked at his watch, careful to keep track of the time. “It’s almost eleven. We should start heading towards the corridor.”

Rowan nodded.

“If my estimation is correct, Mrs. Norris should be patrolling that area right about now. Have you got the sleeping potion from Penny?”

“Right here, mate,” he said, wiggling the bottle in his hands. “Let’s go.”

Tip-toeing quietly out of the room so as to not arouse any noise, the quest to find the first cursed vault had begun.

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Just as Rowan had predicted, Mrs. Norris was roaming the hallway of the 13th corridor as soon as they entered it. They stayed out of sight to avoid her keen, crimson eyes as one slip up would have her alert Filch in a heartbeat.

David took out the sleeping draught as well as a bowl and some milk and proceeded to mix all three into an innocent looking snack that any greedy kitty would take a liking to.

“This next part is going to take some finesse in charms,” he whispered. “Ready, Ben?”

Swallowing, the blonde nodded nevertheless, whispering the proper incantation.

True to his prowess in the subject, the lifting and placement of the bowl could not have gone smoother. Ben managed to land it softly by the bench without the mangy tabby noticing a thing. When she finally did notice, she keenly rushed over to the bowl and began lapping it up with fervor.

From there, it took a matter of half a minute before Mrs. Norris stumbled over into a blissful sleep.

“Brilliant!” Rowan said excitedly. “First part of the plan is complete.”

The three boys headed over to the door, careful to keep their feet light and their voices down just in case anyone else was nearby.

“Would it be wrong to kick a cat whilst it slept?” David wondered aloud.

“Dave…”

“What? I’m not the only one thinking it. Everyone hates this stupid thing.”

“David, focus.”

He shook his head.

“Right, sorry.” He pulled out his wand and prepared to use it on the door. “Time to find out if Alohomora will do the trick on this.”

But just before he did, his right ear caught the sound of what sounded like boots shuffling echoing softly in the corridor.

“Did you hear something?” Rowan asked him.

“Yeah, but-”

Suddenly, three spells were fired off in rapid succession hitting each of the Gryffindors directly in the back or the side, causing their arms and legs to go rigid, snapping together like a makeshift plank and toppling over in a heap.

When the dust cleared, David found he couldn’t move anything except his eyes. No matter how hard he tried, no muscle or limb in his body would budge. But who or what on earth had caused them to freeze up like that? He wasn’t left guessing for long.

“I should have known you’d bring along that spineless mudblood, Grant. Pathetic.”

Merula

David didn’t know if it was possible to loathe anyone in the world at the moment more than the Slytherin girl. He wanted to get up and tear her to shreds with every fiber of his being, but that was nigh impossible. She stepped over his body and gazed down at him, a malicious twinkling dancing in her violet eyes.

“I was wondering how to unlock that door and get past that nasty cat. As it turns out, just waiting for you to do it for me was all I needed to do. I suppose I should be thanking you but then again I’d just be lying.”

She reached the door pulled out her wand, and uttered the unlocking spell, causing it to creak open.

“A cursed vault is inside here and as I told you before, I’m going to be the first one to get inside. Where’s that ‘I told you so’ now?”

She chuckled darkly.

“Guess you’ll have to wait until that body bind curse wears off. Should only take ten minutes. Unfortunately, I’ll be long gone by then. See you around, Grant,” she finished with a sneer.

Without a second thought, she stepped inside and closed the door behind her.

Had he been able to, David would have screamed in fury. Merula had gotten to the vault first.

#fanfiction #hogwarts mystery #hphm #mc #david grant #rowan khanna #penny haywood #ben copper #merula snyde #gryffindor #slytherin #hogwarts #cursed vaults

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They offer a broad opportunity set and fewer restrictions on investments, and can include investments that are less correlated. This means an investor may be less impacted by market extremes or volatility.

They employ trading strategies that seek out market inefficiencies, allowing highly skilled managers to add significant value over time.

They are grouped in five categories: Long/Short Positions, Managed Futures, Global Macro, Distressed and Multi-Strategy. KNOWLEDGEFINANCIALGROUP.BLOGSPOT.COM

Private equity

Investing in private companies offers the potential for enhanced diversification and returns, since the factors driving these markets differ from those that drive public equity markets. Benefits of private equity investing can include:

Private ownership enables long-term strategic focus, versus the public market focus on quarterly earnings.

Overall, returns on private equity investments have exhibited attractive performance on both a risk-adjusted and an absolute basis.

Private equity investments provide a spectrum of opportunity by spanning all stages of a company’s life cycle, including during venture capital, growth periods, buyout and restructuring. Learn more about private equity alternative investments. VISIONAIREBIZ.BLOGSPOT.COM

Commodities

Historically, investment in commodities such as natural resources — including agricultural products, energy, precious metals and industrial metals — comes with several benefits. Benefits of commodity investing can include:

Commodities rise and fall with supply and demand. The more a commodity is in demand like oil or natural gas, the higher price, and profit for the investor, will be.

Commodities protect against inflation. They are not sensitive to public equity market movements, so they are a natural protection from risk in that arena.

The most popular types of commodity investments include:

Index funds: These funds track an index that includes various commodity assets. MONEYWISERS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Commodity funds: Known as "true" commodity funds, these funds invest directly in the underlying commodity asset. An example would be a commodity fund that holds a direct position in gold and oil.

Futures-based commodity funds: These funds offer exposure to commodities by investing in futures contracts without ever buying the actual underlying commodity assets. This type of investment may carry higher risk due to the volatile nature of the futures contracts market.

---- Real estate is another popular and flexible investment strategy for portfolio diversification. Contrary to popular belief, real estate investing is not just for wealthy investors. Publicly traded exchange traded funds (ETFs) and trusts allow investors low barriers for real estate investing strategies. Benefits of real estate investing can include: ----- Real estate can be a good source of diversification, because it is less correlated to stock, bond and cash returns over the long term. Real estate is a strong generator of immediate cash flow and offers the potential for capital gains.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) combine the potential of real estate's increasing value over time with the transparency and liquidity associated with publicly traded stocks. This type of investment may carry higher risk. FACEBOOK.COM/ZONEBUSINESS

------------

FRUITAL INVESTMENT GROUP AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT -

INVESTMENT STRATEGIES, METHODS AND TECHNIQUES... How to Invest in Stocks? FACEBOOK.COM/KNOWLEDGEFINANCIAL Why Should I Invest? FACEBOOK.COM/BUYHEREMARKET How Do I Invest? FACEBOOK.COM/VISIONONEHOLDING What Should I Invest In? FACEBOOK.COM/FEMKONSA When's the Right Time to Invest? KNOWLEDGEFINANCIALGROUP.BLOGSPOT.COM ------------- INVESTMENT STRATEGIES, METHODS AND TECHNIQUES FOR ALL YOUR INTERESTS AND GOALS. Whether you’re new to investing or a pro. -------- With the right tools, maximum profits from stocks, ETF's, precious metals, bonds, commodities and more ... --------- At Visionone Capital Management; learn income-boosting strategies for growing your nest egg. ---------- Concrete financial information @ FEMKONSA CAPITAL INVESTMENT Financial research for people across the globe. BUYHEREMARKET ENTERPRISE Financial Twitter Follow BUYHEREMARKET on Twitter Facebook Like BUYHEREMARKET on Facebook - Linkedin Follow BUYHEREMARKET on LinkedIn YouTube Subscribe to BUYHEREMARKET on YouTube Blog, read: BUYHEREMARKET blogs @ BUYHEREMARKET.BLOGSPOT.COM ------- LEARN How to Develop Your Financial Intelligence Much More and Grow Your Wealth Better @ Money Wisers Group.

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faithpeacehopejoy · 5 years

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Matthew 19:25-26

25 When the disciples heard this, they were greatly astonished and asked, “Who then can be saved?” 26 Jesus looked at them and said, “With man this is impossible, but with God all things are possible.”

You Can’t Afford Not to Tithe

By Rick Warren

“Honor the LORD with your wealth and with the best part of everything you produce” (Proverbs 3:9 NLT).

The Bible says, “Honor the Lord with your wealth and with the best part of everything you produce” (Proverbs 3:9 NLT). This is the principle of tithing. It’s the principle that says every time you make $100, the first $10 goes back to God.

Tithing is an act of worship. We’re giving back to God. We’re saying, “Here is a small portion of my blessing. You deserve far more. And all of it, everything I have, came from you.” God wants you to recognize that every good thing you have—every provision—is a gift from him. He wants you to put him first in your life so you can learn to be generous and then watch what he does—in your life and in the people around you.

You may think you can’t afford to tithe. You may think it’s too much to “give away” 10 percent of what you’re given. But the reality is, you can’t afford not to do it.

There is a universal law called the principle of sowing and reaping. If I sow criticism, I’m going to reap criticism. If I sow generosity, it’s going to come back to me, and I’m going to reap generosity.

Every farmer knows this. If a farmer has four sacks of seed in his barn, and he looks at his empty field, he doesn’t complain, “There’s no crop! I wish there was a crop!” He just goes out and starts planting seed. When you have a need, plant a seed.

It seems illogical that when I have a need, I should give. That’s why it requires faith. God says, “My ways are not your ways. But you can trust my ways.”

Why did God set it up that way? Because God is a giver. He is the most generous giver in the universe, and he wants you to learn to be like him.

This is why you’re here: to become more like Christ. Follow God’s example in your giving, and he will build his character in you.

Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.”

John 8:32 NIV

https://bible.com/bible/111/jhn.8.32.NIV

PLAY today’s audio teaching from Pastor Rick >>

Talk About It

What is the greatest thing you have sown in your life? How have you reaped the benefits?

If you already faithfully tithe 10 percent, how can you continue to grow in your giving habits?

If your number one goal is to become more like Christ, how does that affect your giving?

...Love...is not touchy or fretful or resentful; it takes no account of the evil done to it [it pays no attention to a suffered wrong].

— 1 Corinthians 13:5 (AMPC)

Don't Keep Records

Adapted from the resource Love Out Loud Devotional - by Joyce

Love forgives; it does not hold a grudge. It is not touchy, easily offended, nor is it fretful or resentful. Some people get their feelings hurt about everything. It is very difficult to be in a relationship with people like this. We have many opportunities every day to get offended; each time we must make a choice.

If we choose to live by our feelings, we will never succeed in this all-important facet of love. If we don't forgive quickly, but instead keep records of how others have hurt us, sooner or later the list will get so long that we can no longer be in relationship with these people. That kind of resentment is a part of what causes many divorces. If we can learn this important facet of love and abide by it, we'll save ourselves—and others—tremendous pain and damage to our relationships.

By keeping records of things that others have done to offend us, we fill ourselves up with poison. Bitterness makes our life attitude, words and thoughts bitter. “Drop the issue, let it go” is what the Amplified Bible says we are to do with offenses (see Mark 11:25). It is important to forgive quickly. The quicker we do it, the easier it is.

Let's begin to behave as if we believe the Bible. In it, God tells us over and over again what to do about those who offend us: Love them, pray for them, bless them.

Prayer Starter: Father, please forgive me for holding grudges and “keeping score” of what others have done. Help me to forgive those who have hurt me. Help me to truly love others the way You do. In Jesus’ Name, Amen

#Jesus #fam #friendship #joy #peace #love #Hope #dailyhope #mind of christ #christlike #christian #message #voice #truth #joycemeyerministries

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positivlyfocused · 5 years

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How To Read Successful People’s Success Stories

Why The Uber Successful Downplay How Easy Success Is

There are so many people out there offering success recipes.

Facebook, YouTube and other social media advertisement services opened the flood gates. Now, anyone with a success story and some digital tools can hawk their "proven" success tips.

Then there are the "Uber Successsful."

Millions follow Uber Successfuls, with stardom in their eyes. They want wealth, happiness, the good life. Celebrity.

Anthony Robbins, Gary Vaynerchuk, Arnold Schwarzenegger and many others, offer how their hard work, persistence and vision made them successful. You can do what they did, they say...

But... (you knew this was coming :-)).

Successfuls, both minor and major camouflage how easy success really is. They don’t do it on purpose. So if you want success, listen to these people. But first, learn how to read their stories.

^^There are more success stories than there is time to read them. Learning how to read them is more important than reading them all. (Photo: Annie Spratt on Unsplash)

Successfuls don't understand the "how" of their success. That's why their recipes emphasize what's irrelevant and downplay success' ingredients.

Learn to read the typical success story though and you unlock real doors to success. Like successful people promise.

· · ·

Take Arnold Schwarzenegger. Everyone knows his success. Watch this video, seen many millions of times across the internet. In it, Arnold distills his success to five essential rules.

youtube

Fortunately, none of the rules he offers made him successful. Want Arnold's success? Let’s distill what really happened.

Generally, successful people like Arnold suggest specific action. Action you must take to get results. Actions they say will make you successful. While focusing on action, they gloss over the secrets. Secrets all successful people use (and we do mean all).

The reason they don't speak plain about them? Most aren't aware what they are. They call them "lucky breaks", or "chance" or "fortunate events".

A few come close, but miss, attributing success to “God".

The rest ascribe 80-90 percent of their success to their hard work, their actions, what they knew or who they knew. They assign 20 percent, or less, to "luck".

Here's what's remarkable about that: it's the opposite.

Ninety percent or more of their success was "luck". Effort represents a minuscule percentage.

That means, your success depends on "luck" too.

· · ·

Here's the good news: It's not luck.

Success happens via direct, deliberate easy-to-use processes. Processes you control. Processes Successfuls use. That means, any outcome you want is possible.

You don't need luck. You only need to know the processes. Then you can manufacture "luck" at will.

More good news: It's impossible not to be successful. That's because you already know how the processes work. You've only temporarily forgotten.

^^You’re a few moments away from remembering what you’ve forgotten. (Photo: Tachina Lee on Unsplash)

You listened to the video. Notice Arnold ascribing his success to five rules? Notice his casual references where luck happened?

Probably not. But we did. Let's recap.

How Success Really Happens

At 00:25, Arnold introduces his success "rules". These rules, he says, work for anyone. "Rules" imply things you must do. They also imply things you must not do (don't break the rules).

Don't follow the rules, Arnold says. You won't be successful. Or happy!

But life doesn't work that way. You are eternal. It's not possible to "not be successful".

Eternity has no finish line. You always get do overs. There's a second chance, a third, a fourth, fifth, sixth...etc., on through eternity.

^^Every next moment is a change to start anew. (Meme: By the author)

But when you think "oh boy, there are RULES I'm going to have to follow?" that lengthens your success path.

There are no rules you must follow.

At around 00:38, Arnold describes Rule #1: "Find" your vision and follow it.

Have no vision or goal, he says, and you'll drift around and not be happy.

Arnold says, if you don't "find" your vision, you're lost. But he doesn't explain "how" to find your vision. Maybe he didn't have time to explain. Perhaps he doesn't know how.

Visions or goals aren't something you "find". You can't help but have them! Life experiences evoke from within you unending desires. THOSE ARE YOUR VISIONS. Arnold describes this, but not in his rules. Instead he buries it in his life story.

Through Life Experience Visions Are Automatic

After Germany and Austria's defeat in World War II, Arnold wanted escape. He wanted out of war-torn Europe. That was his first vision! His first goal. Did he have to "find" it?

No! His life experience drew it from him.

That's how your life works. From your experiences you birth visions and dreams. Visions sometime feel like dislikes. Arnold disliked Austria. He wanted to escape. That was his vision. He didn't need to find it!

Arnold's rule number one is wrong. There's no "finding" your vision. They come automatically.

Then, less than a minute into his speech, Arnold reveals secret number one. At 00:54 after knowing he wanted to escape, he "luckily" watched a documentary about America.

^^Arnold Giving up the secrets. You always know Successfuls share real secrets when they use keywords such as "luck" or "fortunate". (Photo credit: YouTube/Goalcast)

Was this luck? If it was, then you're screwed.

Because luck only happens to the lucky!

Good news: it wasn't luck! This is how life works for everyone.

Arnold had life experience. Life experience clarified his vision. Get out of Austria. But he didn't know how or "to where". His Broader Perspective did though. His Broader Perspective arranged his life to include the documentary. It was not "luck". The film showed up on purpose.

It's likely Arnold doesn't know he has a Broader Perspective. So instead of giving credit where it's due, he called it "luck”.

When successful people tell success stories, keep listening for keywords like “luck”. When they use such words, they're giving up secrets. Their secrets are not actions, advice or rules you must follow.

Luck makes it seem out of your control. But you make these events happen! You’ve only forgotten how.

Only one thing makes you successful: lining up with you Broader Perspective. It is arranging your success all the time. Your Broader Perspective always speaks to you. Most of the time, you’re not listening...Successful people find a way to listen.

Successful people would have no stories to tell without Broader Perspective’s involvement.

Ask any successful person you know if they could predict when, where and from whom these "lucky breaks" would happen. Every person will say "no". Human awareness is too small to know. It's too small to arrange billions of events, and resources becoming your life. Including people who's ideas will benefit you. Ideas those people haven’t even had yet!

Trippy, right?

All this is beyond normal human perception. Right up until such events become reality. But it's child's play for your Broader Perspective.

After seeing the documentary, Arnold "knew that is exactly where I wanted to end up" he says. Young Arnold got excited. “Excited” is an emotion. Emotions tell you you’re on your way to success. That’s their purpose.

Arnold was on his success path. He felt positive, excited. All he had to do now was keep following his vision as it evolved. Broader Perspective would do the heavy lifting (pun intended). It would create one event after another.

When strung together, Arnold would find himself successful.

It's that easy. It's so easy, you can do it.

So did Arnold have to "find" the vision of "ending up in America”? Nope. Then why do you?

Next, he asked "how will I get there?" The answer already existed. His Broader Perspective already held the experience "ending up in America". It already had shaped many paths leading to America. Paths including people who could help Arnold get there.

It didn't matter Arnold didn't know how he would get there. Just by asking the question, he matched his Broader Perspective's "knowing".

What happened next reveals another secret having nothing to do with Arnold's effort.

At 1:09, Arnold says: "...One day I was fortunate enough to see a bodybuilding magazine..." In the magazine, he says, he read an article about Reg Park, a former Mr. Universe.

^^Arnold's second clue. The keyword "fortunate" always points to knowledge, the speaker is unware they have. (Photo: YouTube/Goalcast)

"Fortunate" is another keyword. When Successfuls use this word, perk up. Here's what they're saying. "I don't know how the heck this happened, but it made me successful, so pay attention, I'm telling you the secret".

Arnold couldn't get himself out of Austria on his own. He had no idea "how". He had no money. No one did. He had no idea "where" he'd go.

But his Broader Perspective had answers to how and who and where. The documentary, then Reg Park were answers Arnold wanted.

Arnold got inspired. He felt excitement. In his excitement, he primed the next major event. The more positively focused you are, the quicker things happen.

At 01:22 Arnold says "I read the article as fast as I could". Park's success boosted Arnold's enthusiasm. You could say Park and Arnold share the same nonphysical origins. Park’s experience pointed the way for Arnold's ambitions. Through Park's example, Arnold realized his own path.

Life works like this for everyone. It is not luck. It is not fortune. It is not random. You have life experience. It spurs desire. Broader Perspective makes it real at once. You don't experience that realness as immediate as your Broader Perspective. Why?

Because desires become real slower in physical reality than in nonphysical. In nonphysical, things become things immediately.

It's a good thing it’s different here. Too much crazy stuff would happen otherwise. But that's another story.

Just know that your success happens exactly as Arnold’s.

Not successful yet?

You will be, after you learn how do to what Arnold did. Not what he says he did. What he actually did.

In other words, no rules.

Arnold describes Park "all of a sudden" landing "in Rome...He’s doing Hercules movies" after training and winning Mr. Universe three times.

But Park's success (and Arnold's) didn't happen "all of a sudden". It happened over time. “All of a sudden” is a keyword phrase. During that time, did Park or Arnold work hard? Struggle? Sacrifice? We don’t know about Park.

But that's how Arnold describes it. If you watch Arnold’s training footage, however, you would see he wasn't working hard.

^^Note the yellow box. Arnold acknowledges his "hard work" and "struggle" "didn't matter". (Photo: YouTube/Goalcast)

More likely, he was enjoying it. That's how he explains it. But you must listen carefully.

At 2:04 he says hard work wasn't part of the equation. Nor struggle. "It didn't matter" he said. Why? Because he found his passion. Meaning: he knew he was on his path.

Let's summarize so far. Here are the first steps to everyone'ssuccess:

Your desires, automatically surface through life experience. These are your visions/goals.

Now you know what you want. That moment, your Broader Perspective becomes that. It then sends you clues via intuition, events and circumstances spurring your desire. It's never full blown desire fulfillment. It's bread crumbs on a path.

Watch Arnold's speech again. See if you can ignore Arnold's rules. Instead, tune in to keywords in his story. Keywords indicating how Arnold (and every successful person) unknowingly reveals real secrets. Secrets so secret, even Successfuls don't know them. Even though they share them.

Arnold's "rules" had nothing to do with his success.

Speed Builds As Success Gets Bigger

Later in his speech, Arnold's early successes inspire even bigger desires. He's had some success. He's feeling confident. So he shoots for bigger dreams.

At 2:30 he talks about being another John Wayne. But he wouldn't be able to have that grand vision had he not started with his smaller one: leaving war-torn Austria.

That dream got fulfilled when he first saw the documentary, then read the magazine. By then, he knew how (follow Park's example) and where (go to America).

So Arnold didn't follow Rule #2: Never ever think small. He thinks he followed it, but his first thought wasn't huge. It wasn't "become the next John Wayne." It was "get out of Austria."

Not "become the next Mr. Universe".

Not "Become a movie star".

Just: get out of Austria. Where? "I don't know!” How? "I don't know, I just want to escape!”

When you have a small goal, it's just as big as a big goal, because small goals lead to bigger ones. You don't have to start with a big one. Start where you are.

Arnold didn't have a big goal to start. He started where he was.

You don't have to have big dreams.

Next we come to Arnold's Rule #3: ignore the naysayers.

Arnold didn't follow this rule either. He did listen. Why do you think he took english classes, accent removal classes, diction classes...

Meanwhile Arnold's Broader Perspective delivers what Arnold calls "a little break".

But it actually was a massive real-ization: a part in a TV show.

That part lead to Pumping Iron, which literally made Arnold a household name.

Then Stay Hungry came.

By this time, Arnold's dreams blossomed more and more. The more real they got, the happier and more confident Arnold got. Arnold's attention turned to bigger and more exciting dreams and desires. How? His dreaming capacity increased with each previously fulfilled goal.

Again, that's how life works.

Conan The Barbarian: The Big Break

Then came Conan The Barbarian. Let's talk about Conan the Barbarian, something Arnold calls "the big break".

^^The Epic Conan Poster.

Arnold says it came "finally". As though he had been waiting a long time.

But he's not recognizing every fulfilled desire preceding this famous movie. Each fulfilled desire made the next possible. Fulfilled dreams come in succession. Not in a Big Bang.

Conan was impossible before Stay Hungry.

Stay Hungry: impossible before Pumping Iron.

Pumping Iron: impossible before that TV role.

All Arnold's acting, impossible before his preparation.

His preparation, impossible before winning Mr. Universe.

Winning Mr. Universe, impossible were it not for Reg Park and the magazine article.

The magazine article, impossible before the documentary.

The documentary, impossible before wanting to escape.

Wanting to escape, impossible before the aftermath of WWII.

A long series of manifestations, one leading to the other, made Conan The Barbarian possible. Including events having nothing to do with Arnold.

That's important!

First, there had to be a Conan The Barbarian concept. Original Conan stories were first published in 1932.That's fifteen years before Arnold was even born (1947)!

The Conan stories then had to become comic books. They started out as fantasy stories. Not comic books.

Frank Frazetta, a famous fantasy artist, was born in 1928. Well before Arnold could have known about Reg Park. Frazetta's art became famous. According to Wikipedia: “His interpretation of Conan visually redefined the genre of sword and sorcery, and had an enormous influence on succeeding generations of artists.” In other words, Frazetta’s art boosted Conan's mystique.

Somewhere along the line, the Conan fantasy inspired a future movie director. All these events happened well before Arnold started acting!

See?

Many events, inspirations, sparks of imaginations. Imaginations happening well before Arnold was born!

Then, came Arnold's tiny dream: Get heck out of Austria.

Conan was monumental. Note how Arnold describes it. We're pasting his verbatim commentary so you can read it without the video. It's thrilling:

"...You know what was so interesting about it was the director said that at the press conference, if we wouldn't have had Schwarzenegger with those muscles, we would have had to build one."

Then, about Terminator:

"James Cameron said, the "I'll be back" line became the most famous movie lines in history because of Arnold's crazy accent because he sounded like a machine!"

Here's what we wrote before about these kinds of events. Events organized by your Broader Perspective:

"When your Broader Perspective organizes events in your life, it works with other people’s Broader Perspectives. Your Broader Perspective has your best interests in mind. Other people’s Broader Perspectives have your interests in mind too. And vice versa. So when a person shows up in your life, they agreed, through their Broader Perspective, to be there. In being there, they get what they are wanting. Even as you get what you want. Everyone in any situation gets the same thing: what they want. There are no exceptions to this."

That director's Broader Perspective, and James Cameron's Broader Perspective, Frank Frazetta's Broader Perspective, Reg Park's Broader Perspective....were and are working with Arnold's Broader Perspective. Such coordination got/is getting everyone what they wanted/want.

Did you get a little shiver down your spine, or goose bumps across your body?

That's your Broader Perspective agreeing with us. Because what we're sharing with you is 100 percent accurate. You have control over this process. Let's review the steps adding steps three and four:

Your desires surface through life experience. These are your visions/goals. It’s automatic.

Now you know what you want. That moment, your Broader Perspective becomes that. It then sends you clues via intuition, events and circumstances spurring more desire. It's never full blown desire fulfillment. It's bread crumbs on a path.

You must now merge with your Broader Perspective. You’ll then hear clues and perceive event chains. These event chains are desires fulfilled over time. How do you know you're merged? You are positively focused. You are happy, appreciative, joyful, excited, inspired. All these tell you you're merged.

Watch what happens. Celebrate when desires get fulfilled, then move back to step one.

These basic steps make all Successfuls successful. Your success equals anyone on any stage telling you about their success. Working hard isn't required.

You only need to do what they did. Not what they say they did.

Your success may not look like Arnold's, or any other's success. Your life is unique. You're not here to succeed like others. You're here to succeed in your way.

Successful people don't share secrets of their success directly. That's because they don't know the secrets. Instead they talk about what they did. They encourage you to do what they did. They don't tell you it's not about doing. Success is about being. Being merged with your Broader Perspective.

That's the secret.

Now you know. Now you can listen to their experiences, tune out the irrelevant 10 percent. Then tune in the 90 percent that made them successful.

Pain Endurance: Unnecessary.

Everything Arnold did, he did because he wanted to. He enjoyed it. Here's why he says otherwise.

Like many successful people, he doesn't understand how he got success. Instead he justifies his success. How? By saying he found his vision, worked his ass off, didn't listen to anyone and endured pain. Performing altruism is a nice touch. But as you know, many successful people become altruistic after succeeding. Not while becoming successful.

None of those things made him successful.

What made him successful were "lucky" breaks, big and small. Those and “fortunate" events impossible to arrange on his own.

Those events his Broader Perspective arranged. Yours can too.

We invite you to listen again to Arnold's story. Or any successful person's story. See if you can tune out the rules. Tune out what they said they did, and listen to the 90 percent their Broader Perspective did for them.

Arnold's story is inspiring. But ignore his advice. Learn to read his story correctly. Hear the "hidden message" to turn inward. Listen to your own Broader Perspective. Merge with it. Then chart your own delightful path.

How? By staying positively focused. Need more help? That's why we're here.

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continuations · 6 years

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World After Capital: UBI is Affordable

NOTE: I have been posting excerpts from my book World After Capital. Today’s section provides some back of the envelope calculations to show we can afford UBI to provide economic freedom for all.

UBI is Affordable

So with all of this as background, your might wonder what a Universal Basic Income should pay. My working proposal for the United States is $1,000/month for everyone over age 18, $400/month for everyone over 12 years old, $200/month for every child. These numbers might seem extremely low, but keep in mind, the goal here isn't to make people well off; it's simply to let them take care of their basic needs. We have mistakenly come to embrace unlimited wants, and we can free ourselves from this by re-establishing a clear distinction between wants and needs. We should also remember that our basic needs will get cheaper over time, and we won't get UBI overnight. So my numbers are meant to work over time as other government programs are phased out and a UBI is phased in. Other policies I will discuss will also serve to help bring down the cost of education and healthcare.

Let's dig further into these numbers. While everyone will spend their UBI in different ways, a possible allocation for a typical adult would roughly break down as follows: $300/month for housing, $300/month for food, $100/month for transportation, $50/month for internet access and associated equipment.

You might wonder why I am proposing a lower payment for children and teenagers. First, we can meet many of their basic needs even more cheaply than we can for adults (for instance, several kids in a family might share a room). Second, I propose a lower payment in recognition of historic evidence that the number of children people have is partially determined by economics. UBI should not give an incentive to adults to have more children so as to “skim” their income. That's especially important with regard to slowing down and eventually stopping population growth: We want the birth rate to decline globally, as it has started to do in most industrialized nations in conjunction with economic progress and the decline in infant mortality. This will allow us to achieve peak population and put to rest the Malthusian fears of overpopulation and scarcity.

When you calculate how much money is required to provide a UBI for everyone in the United States based on the 2015 population size, you wind up with about $3 trillion annually [76] [77]. While that's a huge number, it only represents about 17% of the size of the economy as measured by 2015 GDP, and only about 10% considered as a percentage of 2015 Gross Output (the latter measures not just final output but also intermediate steps) [78] [79] [80] .

Where will this money come from? There are two sources: government budgets (at the local, state and federal level) and money creation. I will examine each of these in turn.

In the U.S., in 2015 total government revenues from taxation and fees were about $6 trillion or about twice the UBI amount [81]. So in theory the money for a UBI could come entirely from redirecting existing budgets. There would then be another $3 trillion of money for critical government activities, such as local law enforcement and national defense (the latter was $0.6 trillion in 2015 [82]). There is a long debate to be had about the political process by which such a reallocation can be accomplished but there is no fundamental impossibility, such as perpetually increasing government debt.

Having a UBI can also substantially increase government revenues. How so? At the moment there are many people who work but fall below the level for paying federal income tax. In fact this is true for nearly half of all earners (Mitt Romney's infamous 47 percent remark). Once people have a UBI, then every additional dollar earned should be taxed. For instance, if you are single and make $10,000 at present you do not even need to file a federal income tax return at all. With a UBI that could be taxed at a rate of say 25% generating $2,500 in new tax revenues. This effect could provide as much as $0.3 trillion or about a 5% increase in total government revenues. Of course people who are already paying taxes today would also effectively be paying back some of their UBI in the form or higher taxes. Applying a 25% tax rate for that group which would receive roughly half of all payouts, i.e. roughly $1.5 trillion, results in an additional $0.4 trillion. Another way of saying this is that the net burden of a UBI with a 25% federal tax rate applied to the first dollar earned is about $2.3 trillion.

Moreover, government revenues can be expanded in ways that accomplish other goals at the same time. For instance, we could and should be taxing pollution more than we are, in particular the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Taxes are a well established way of dealing with negative externalities and we have made good use of that, for instance by aggressively taxing cigarette smoking, which has resulted in dramatically diminished consumption. Estimates of the revenue potential for a carbon tax are somewhere in the $0.3 trillion dollar range annually and potentially even higher. So between offsets via income tax (which will occur automatically) and a greenhouse gas tax (which we need in any case) we are down to about $2 trillion. Now that's still a massive number. On the other hand, for comparison, Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid are about $1 trillioneach. So in the extreme UBI could be financed through a massive reallocation of existing programs.

There is another way though to provide much or all of UBI by changing how money is created in the economy. This involves moving away from fractional reserve banking and issuing money directly to people instead. In today's fractional reserve banking system, commercial banks extend more credit than they have deposits. This carries with it the potential of a bank run and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) acts as the so-called “lender of last resort.” For instance, in the 2008 financial crisis the Fed stepped in aggressively by buying up potentially bad bank assets to give banks liquidity. Europe has had a policy of “quantitative easing” (QE) where the central bank makes it progressively easier for commercial banks to extend loans beyond their existing deposits.

Generally the idea is that as banks extend loans this will help grow the economy as the banks will lend to businesses that need to finance capital good or working capital. While banks have done that to some degree, they have also been lending to people who are already wealthy for acquiring second and third homes or for engaging in financial speculation. Conversely, bank lending to small businesses has actually been going down as banks have consolidated and have focused on larger customers. The net result of all of this has been that quantitative easing has amplified wealth and income inequality.

An alternative system would be to remove banks from money creation by forcing them to hold all of their deposits at the Fed. This is known as “full reserve banking” and eliminates all risk from the commercial banks. Credit extension could instead happen via marketplace lending as enabled by companies such as Lending Club, for individuals, and Funding Circle, for businesses (both former USV portfolio companies). This would allow money creation to happen by simply giving new money to people as part of their UBI payments, which is sometimes referred to as “QE for the people.”

What magnitudes are we talking about here? In the United States we have unfortunately stopped tracking the larger monetary aggregates, such as M3 and are only using narrower measures, such as M2 (M0, M1, M2, and M3 are different measures of how much money has been created in the economy). Even the M2 measure though has been growing by about $1 trillion annually over the last decade. The actual amount of money created in the economy by quantitative easing is likely to be much bigger. We can consider the development of debt more directly. U.S. households have about $8 trillion in mortgage debt [83], over $1 trillion in auto loans [84], over $1 trillion in student loans [85] and nearly $1 trillion in credit card debt [86]. Total household debt can go up as much as $1 trillion in a single year. U.S. business debt is a total of $25 trillion, of which about $15 trillion is in the financial sector and $10 trillion in non-financial businesses. These too have grown by as much as $1 trillion in a year.

As a first approximation the amount of annual money creation is in the trillions of dollars and thus in the same ball park as UBI. Historically, the idea of the government “printing” money is associated with fears of runaway inflation, such as occurred in the Weimar Republic. There are several reasons why this would not be the case with a proper UBI scheme. First, the amount of new money creation would be fixed and known in advance. Second, as we saw earlier, technology is a strong deflationary force. Third, the amount of net money creation over time can be reduced by also removing money from the economy. This could be accomplished through negative interest rates on bank deposits above a certain amount where the payment is collected by the central bank (and not by the commercial bank). This is known as “demurrage” and would be easy to implement in a full reserve banking system.

I expect that the path to UBI will involve some mix of changes to government budgets, taxation and the monetary system. One exciting possibility is that the change to the monetary system can come about through newly created crypto currencies. No matter how we eventually get there, what the back of the envelope math above shows is that UBI is in fact affordable. Economic freedom for all is possible, if we want it.

#world after capital #ubi #basic income

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thequeensfury · 3 years

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| SEARCHING FOR A WRITING PARTNER!!!! |

Looking for somebody interested in pursuing a 1x1 (fem/fem) plot I’m desperate to flesh out. Currently, I’m writing a play and I’d love to further expatiate the two, main lover’s backstory. It is my belief that expanding upon the character’s relationship with a partner will help to aid this horrid bout of writer’s block I’ve suffered regarding my work.

Below, you will find the first act of the play. It involves a vengeful queen, the bright, young sorceress who once shared her bedchamber and the aftermath of their toxic relationship.

If anybody is interested, please message me!!!!

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Cast of Characters:

Reilla: (ray-uh) A bitter queen in her mid 30’s.

Catarina: A loyal guard and one of the strongest warriors in Festen. Strong woman in her late 20’s early 30’s.

Elise: Talented ice witch out for revenge. Smaller woman with white hair, mid to late 20’s.

Alamo: A short and stout older man with massive wealth and a timid disposition. Mid 50’s balding.

Guard 1: A tall and strong man with a blank expression.

Guard 2: A short and strong man with a blank expression.

Ervys Madeira: Potions master. An evil old man with a sadistic passion for using science as a weapon against magic.

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Queen Reilla (ray-ah), a woman in her 30’s with pale turquoise hair, sits at her throne upstage center. She is eating from a golden bowl of grapes. A general Catarina, a late thirties woman with short blonde hair and tan skin enters downstage right, approaching the throne. There are steps up to the throne and the fourth wall should be considered a huge window looking into and out of the royal chambers.

Catarina: Their forces are advancing upon us. They will be within range by daybreak.

Reilla: Let them advance. They’ll never make it past the fallen swamplands.

Catarina: Er. About that, your highness. I’ve just received some unusual and unfortunate news.

Reilla: Well, go on. Deliver the unfortunate news.

Catarina: Elise of the ice kingdom-

Reilla: Don’t you dare speak that name to me.

Catarina: I’m afraid I must.

Reilla: Make it brief, then. I cannot bear to think about that wretched witch.

Catarina: She’s joined forces with the Baronian army. She’s helping them cross the swamp.

Queen Reilla sits for a moment in silence before screeching and violently throwing her bowl of grapes on the floor. They topple everywhere. Catarina picks up the bowl and puts it back on it’s pedestal and begins picking up the grapes

Reilla: She still defies me even now. I will have her stretched and pulled until each limb splits from her body and that pretty little head pops off. Then I will put that pretty little head in a glass box and keep it in my trophy case.

Catarina: And she would deserve it too! Though I do admit, having her and her coven helping the Baronians has greatly changed our odds of survival.

Reilla: Enough with the grapes. Leave them. The cleaners will take care of it. And what have you and those senile eunuchs of the high council stated to be our odds of survival now?

Catherine stops picking up grapes.

Catarina: Are you certain you want me to say?

Reilla: Of course I want you to say. Do you think I prefer to sit here like some doddering old fool while the imbeciles under my command place bets against our survival?

Catarina: I do not feel right in saying now. It is not my wish to upset you, my highness.

Reilla: You will say, or you will be hung before the castle gates draped in a white flag of surrender while I escape, leaving this whole wretched kingdom to waste.

Catarina: The high council has our odds of survival at ten percent with Elise joining the side of the Baronians.

Reilla: Ten percent?

Reilla briefly bursts out in laughter. There is another short silence. Catarina picks up one more grape. Reilla shrieks again.

Reilla: Guards.

Two guards enter from downstage right and stand at attention.

Reilla: Bring me high council chairman Alamo Montclaire at once, and make sure he is aware that the situation is dire.

The guards exit the same way they came in.

Catarina: Oh dear, my queen. What are you going to do?

Reilla: I’m going to make an example of that stodgy bastard and anyone who dare question the power of my kingdom and my army. The idiocy. To think that wretched ice whore could pose any threat to my great and prosperous empire. Inconceivable.

Catarina: She’s grown quite strong on her own, since you two were close-

Reilla: We were never close. Don’t speak about her. She disgusts me.

Catarina: My queen.

The guards return, bringing with them Alamo Montclaire, a short and stubby man of middle age with a timid disposition.

Reilla: Councilman Montclaire.

Alamo falls to his knees.

Alamo: Your highness.

Reilla: There will be no groveling. Rise, and look me in the eyes, councilman.

Alamo stands at attention.

Reilla: I have received word that the high council does not favor our own army in the anticipated battle against the kingdom of Baronia.

Alamo: Well. No, your highness. It’s not that we don’t favor the Festen army. You command the greatest army in all the land. Everybody knows that. It’s just, erm, well.

Reilla: Spit it out. It’s just what, councilman?

Alamo: The ice queen elise, your highness. The ice queen and her coven of witches possess unimaginable strength. They wield the power to shape earth and destroy entire villages. We members of the high council believe our best chance of survival would be surrender.

Reilla pauses, growing furious.

Reilla: Guards.

The guards stand at attention. Alamo shrinks.

Reilla: Slit this man’s throat. Have his body draped in front of the window of the chamber of the high council and let them see what their traitorous naysaying earns them.

Alamo: Please, I beg of you my queen. Don’t do this. There’s surely some way to defeat them. You’re the best queen of all, your highness. We have the strongest army in all the land.

Reilla: Guards, dispose of this man at once.

A guard draws Alamo up and pulls his head back, drawing a dagger to his neck. Alamo struggles to get away, but the second guard punches him in the gut. The first guard slits Alamo’s throat and he falls to the ground. He is dragged offstage by both guards.

Catarina: Queen Reilla, what have you done?

Reilla: Bite your tongue, humble servant, or seal your fate and hang with the rats of the high council.

Catarina: I will not. I am not afraid of you, my queen. Your guards are absent, and you and I both know I could best the two of them at once in combat.

Reilla: You will pay when this is all over, but I must admit, I can not afford to be rid of you at the moment. However, I will warn you that the more you speak out of turn, the further into an inescapable hole you will sink. And when this is all over, you will sincerely regret dishonoring me this way.

Catarina: The councilmen were not speaking ill of you Queen Reilla. They were stating the facts. You may not want to confront it, but Elise is on her way and she’s stronger than you are willing to admit.

Reilla: Elise is an ungrateful wench who should have been left to die in the wilderness 25 years ago. How dare she lash out against the one who gave her all that strength that my own underlings seem to be so terrified of?

Catarina: She has learned much from the mages of the northern mountains, and has been cultivating her magic, as well as the magic of dozens of other witches. Forgive me for speaking plainly, but you have allowed yourself and our people to stay stagnant. We have decayed while they have refined themselves, and the Baronian’s have seized the opportunity.

Reilla: We only have one option, and it is an option I have dreaded. Bring me the potion keeper at once.

Catarina: Of course, your highness.

Reilla: Tomorrow, Baronia will be nothing more than a memory.

Catarina exits downstage right. Reilla rises from her throne and steps down to down center stage. Orchestral music swells, and Reilla begins dancing by herself, engrossed in memory. Stage lighting shifts to a sentimental, orange hue. Stagehands bring bottles of wine and lay them around the floor. As Reilla dances, a young woman with white hair in a blue dress lined with stunning white fur, Elise walks into the scene and begins waltzing with her. The two dance more and more dramatically, and begin laughing, until the dance degenerates into silliness and they come apart in uproarious laughter.

Reilla: Oh Elise, you mustn’t make me so dizzy. I feel as if I’m going to be sick.

Elise leans down and picks up a half full bottle, sips from it.

Elise: Alright, alright. I’ll take it easy.

Elise quickly kisses Reilla and drunkenly dances across the floor.

Reilla: I’m astounded by you. You really don’t run out of energy do, you? Out winning battles all day and then you come here to wear me out. And after all that, you’re still going.

Elise continues twirling and tries to get Reilla to dance with her. Rhea resists.

Elise: What can I say? I’m just enjoying my life. I never thought I would be here among so many important and powerful people. Let alone become the right hand to the queen of Festen.

Reilla: You have done more for me and this kingdom than you could possibly know. I’m not certain if we would have made it through today without your magic.

Elise: You command the strongest army in the world, I am lucky just to serve you, my queen.

Reilla: Enough formalities, my dear. It is I who is lucky. To have met someone of your brilliance, beauty and ability is no small miracle.

Elise: Will you ever make me your bride?

Reilla: Oh, my sweet.

Elise: Each night I dream of walking down the cathedral aisle to take your hand and kiss your lips before our people. Why must you deny me still?

Reilla: Do you know how it looks for a queen to marry some rehabilitated stray she found in the woods? Do you really think our people would accept me marrying my loyal attack dog?

Elise: I don’t appreciate you speaking as if I am some filthy cur. I am your strongest and most decorated soldier and the woman who comes home to love you every night in your cold and hollow chambers. If you will not treat me as an equal, you will lose me as both lover and servant.

Reilla: Elise, please. You know I can’t lose you, and I would never want to let you go. But we have to keep things private, lest you want the public to revolt.

Elise: I don’t think the public would revolt. I think you’re afraid of people knowing who you are. I think you’re afraid of getting too close to me.

Reilla: You know nothing about public expectation, Elise. This is far too complicated a matter to explain to you right now.

Elise: Too complicated to explain? What am I to you, Reilla? A common rube? Or even worse, some sort of child?

Reilla: Oh be quiet. You’re giving me a headache. That’s not how I think of you at all. There are simply things you come to understand when you’ve lived under public scrutiny so long. These people don’t want a queen who sleeps with women, much less one who marries them. If the commoners caught wind of our affair, there would be revolt. I really do love you Elise.

Elise: Our affair?

Reilla: You know what I mean.

Elise: I need to get out of here. I’ll see you tomorrow.

Reilla: Oh, Elise, don’t be cross with me. I’m sorry.

Elise storms out of the great chamber downstage R.

Reilla: Elise. Please. You must understand.

Reilla grabs her glass of wine and sits down on the floor. Catarina enters downstage right with an old man in dark torn robes, the potions master, Ervys (Er-viss) Madeira, who walks in a slow and awkward manner.

Catarina: Rise your highness.

Reilla: (rising). You do not order me to rise, disloyal mutt. Go get me a fresh bottle of wine. I must speak to the potions master in private.

Catarina: Yes, your highness.

Catarina exits downstage right.

Ervys: My liege. To what do I owe this rare pleasure?

Reilla: Enough with the pleasantries, vile miser, I seek your strongest weapons.

Ervys: I’ve dreamed the day would come to pass where you would require my assistance. Queen Reilla, I have spent my life toiling, studying ancient texts and traveling far to gather exotic ingredients in order to concoct the finest explosives and potions. Years I have spent creating compounds to lay to waste even the strongest demon magic. I am at your disposal.

Reilla: Brilliant. I will need you to bring all you have in storage to the front lines. I will have men with a wagon at your cabin to collect at once.

Ervys: That monster won’t know what hit her.

Reilla: What monster? Lady Elise? Yes, she is quite the unpleasant little splinter isn’t she?

Ervys: A wretched creature like that shouldn’t be allowed to exist. Magic users are close bedmates of devils. Their presence is a beacon of waning morals. ‘Tis a sin.

Reilla: So what of sin? Sin does not factor at all. It is not magic which I hate. What I hate is those pathetic Baronians, and the backstabbing witch that is leading them to my gates.

Ervys: Rumor has it that filthy beast has sinned in other fashions.

Reilla: Enough, Madeira. Ready the supplies at once and await pickup.

Ervys: Word from Baronia is she’s been lying with the princess. Makes one sick. Thinking of an abomination like that. Baronia is a land of savages and sodomy.

Reilla: Shut your mouth, potions master, and ready your potions for transport. You are taxing my nerves with your religious ramblings.

Ervys: A woman with another woman. Some hell spawned scoundrel in bed with the highest royalty. That sort of thing just isn’t natural.

Reilla begins screaming. She grabs a marble bust off of a pedestal and hits Ervys with it. He begins to back up toward downstage left.

Reilla: My queen! Please. What are you doing? Have mercy on me! I do not know what I’ve done to enrage you.

Reilla follows Ervys offstage L carrying the heavy bust and hitting him repeatedly with it. Cries are heard offstage, while Reilla shouts improvised anger and obscenities. She re-enters carrying the same bust, but it’s covered in blood and so is her dress.

Reilla: Enemies at the gates, enemies within my walls. Have I not a single ally left in this rotten world? Does every living creature conspire against me until the day I die? Have I not earned a moment of peace to myself without this specter haunting me? (Drops the bust) And now she comes to my kingdom, seeking my head. She comes to freeze my heart where I stand. I could’ve left her to die when she was still just a wild beast, and this is my thanks. A war I never asked for. If it’s a war she wants it’s a war I shall give her. One final gift of my love. (Screaming) Guards!

Two guards enter downstage Right.

Reilla: The potions master is dead. Raid his quarters and gather all the explosives and potions you can find. You’ll want to ready transports and get those to the front lines at once. We will crush the Baronians and their witch before they even have a chance to attack.

The guards exit. Catarina enters.

Catarina: Your highness we must move quickly. Our eyes in the East watchtower have spotted cavalries advancing over Ryer Hill.

Reilla: Men are making preparations for a full on assault as we speak. This is the last trick I have up my sleeve, Catarina. If this doesn’t work, our people will have little chance of survival. She stands to make a historic mockery of me.

Catarina: This is about more than you and her, my lady. Why is your dress covered in blood?

Reilla: Ervys Madeira has been disposed of. He defied me and mocked me to my face. I could not let it stand.

Catarina leans down to observe the blood soaked bust on the floor.

Catarina: You will see this kingdom fall before they even reach our walls. Your temper will be the death of us all.

Reilla: And your tongue will be the death of you. Consider what you say to me wisely, or that temper might turn itself on you. You speak to me as a close friend.

Catarina: Your temper is what drove her away.

Reilla crosses to Catarina and puts her hand around her throat. Catarina easily shrugs her off and tosses her to the floor. She draws her sword and points it at the queen.

Catarina: You are aged and weak and you’ve lost all sense of reality. I have protected you thus far, but I will pin you like a pig on a skewer if you ever threaten me again. Now pick yourself up and win this war for our people, or else fall at the hands of the only person you ever loved. This is the fate chosen for you.

Catarina puts away her sword. Reilla backs away and stands up.

Reilla: Love. My love. I know nothing of love. Foolish notions of love. That stupid wildling knows nothing of love. She is no different than a common animal. How could you say that word to me, love?

Catarina walks to the edge of the stage and looks off into the distance.

Catarina: You knew love. You saw its face and it terrified you. You pushed it away, the same way you always have done. It’s how you treat everyone and everything. My queen, you do not need to be afraid. I also loved a woman once.

Reilla: Spare me your stories. I am afraid of nothing. I am no coward. Our army faces the present threat with a force never before seen, and you will watch their troops, and the traitor witch you claim I loved, perish in a rain of green flame. One mage and her pathetic hoard of understudies are no match for a stockpile of deadly gases and acid bombs.

Catarina: You will poison the land.

Reilla: We will have no land at all if we fall. We can farm somewhere else. Someone will have to gather supplies from distant lands in the meanwhile. We will survive.

Catarina crosses downstage left and turns at the edge of the stage.

Catarina: The battlefield awaits me. I pray you are right. May the heavens smile upon us.

Reilla: May all seven hells open up and swallow Baronia whole. Gods be with you, Catarina. Festen will see another sun.

Curtains fall.

#lesbian rp #roleplay #rp #1x1 rp #lgbt rp

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