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reasonsforhope · 5 months

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"Two and a half years ago, when I was asked to help write the most authoritative report on climate change in the United States, I hesitated...

In the end, I said yes, but reluctantly. Frankly, I was sick of admonishing people about how bad things could get. Scientists have raised the alarm over and over again, and still the temperature rises. Extreme events like heat waves, floods and droughts are becoming more severe and frequent, exactly as we predicted they would. We were proved right. It didn’t seem to matter.

Our report, which was released on Tuesday, contains more dire warnings. There are plenty of new reasons for despair. Thanks to recent scientific advances, we can now link climate change to specific extreme weather disasters, and we have a better understanding of how the feedback loops in the climate system can make warming even worse. We can also now more confidently forecast catastrophic outcomes if global emissions continue on their current trajectory.

But to me, the most surprising new finding in the Fifth National Climate Assessment is this: There has been genuine progress, too.

I’m used to mind-boggling numbers, and there are many of them in this report. Human beings have put about 1.6 trillion tons of carbon in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution — more than the weight of every living thing on Earth combined. But as we wrote the report, I learned other, even more mind-boggling numbers. In the last decade, the cost of wind energy has declined by 70 percent and solar has declined 90 percent. Renewables now make up 80 percent of new electricity generation capacity. Our country’s greenhouse gas emissions are falling, even as our G.D.P. and population grow.

In the report, we were tasked with projecting future climate change. We showed what the United States would look like if the world warms by 2 degrees Celsius. It wasn’t a pretty picture: more heat waves, more uncomfortably hot nights, more downpours, more droughts. If greenhouse emissions continue to rise, we could reach that point in the next couple of decades. If they fall a little, maybe we can stave it off until the middle of the century. But our findings also offered a glimmer of hope: If emissions fall dramatically, as the report suggested they could, we may never reach 2 degrees Celsius at all.

For the first time in my career, I felt something strange: optimism.

And that simple realization was enough to convince me that releasing yet another climate report was worthwhile.

Something has changed in the United States, and not just the climate. State, local and tribal governments all around the country have begun to take action. Some politicians now actually campaign on climate change, instead of ignoring or lying about it. Congress passed federal climate legislation — something I’d long regarded as impossible — in 2022 as we turned in the first draft.

[Note: She's talking about the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Act, which despite the names were the two biggest climate packages passed in US history. And their passage in mid 2022 was a big turning point: that's when, for the first time in decades, a lot of scientists started looking at the numbers - esp the ones that would come from the IRA's funding - and said "Wait, holy shit, we have an actual chance."]

And while the report stresses the urgency of limiting warming to prevent terrible risks, it has a new message, too: We can do this. We now know how to make the dramatic emissions cuts we’d need to limit warming, and it’s very possible to do this in a way that’s sustainable, healthy and fair.

The conversation has moved on, and the role of scientists has changed. We’re not just warning of danger anymore. We’re showing the way to safety.

I was wrong about those previous reports: They did matter, after all. While climate scientists were warning the world of disaster, a small army of scientists, engineers, policymakers and others were getting to work. These first responders have helped move us toward our climate goals. Our warnings did their job.

To limit global warming, we need many more people to get on board... We need to reach those who haven’t yet been moved by our warnings. I’m not talking about the fossil fuel industry here; nor do I particularly care about winning over the small but noisy group of committed climate deniers. But I believe we can reach the many people whose eyes glaze over when they hear yet another dire warning or see another report like the one we just published.

The reason is that now, we have a better story to tell. The evidence is clear: Responding to climate change will not only create a better world for our children and grandchildren, but it will also make the world better for us right now.

Eliminating the sources of greenhouse gas emissions will make our air and water cleaner, our economy stronger and our quality of life better. It could save hundreds of thousands or even millions of lives across the country through air quality benefits alone. Using land more wisely can both limit climate change and protect biodiversity. Climate change most strongly affects communities that get a raw deal in our society: people with low incomes, people of color, children and the elderly. And climate action can be an opportunity to redress legacies of racism, neglect and injustice.

I could still tell you scary stories about a future ravaged by climate change, and they’d be true, at least on the trajectory we’re currently on. But it’s also true that we have a once-in-human-history chance not only to prevent the worst effects but also to make the world better right now. It would be a shame to squander this opportunity. So I don’t just want to talk about the problems anymore. I want to talk about the solutions. Consider this your last warning from me."

-via New York Times. Opinion essay by leading climate scientist Kate Marvel. November 18, 2023.

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suffarustuffaru · 2 months

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i need to share my very horrible idea to combine the reinhard/julius/otto/subaru boy drama into one julius-centric fic

ok so a little while ago ive made all kinds of ottojuli and reinjuli posts and while i havent finished all my major julisuba posts Yet i am quite fond of julisuba also and i think itd be incredibly funny if you just dumped all of these ships into one story. just go ALL IN on that boy drama!!!! go big or go home amirite!!!! the worlds WORST love trapezoid youve ever seen!!!!

this post is just me rambling fic ideas bc i sadly dont have time for Every Fic Idea and also i just. i just think itd be funny putting multiple ships with the same person in them into one fic. on a serious level its like mimicking real life relationships where sometimes people come and go and you have different dynamics with each person!! on another level i just think this is also very funny so!! here we go. under the cut:

anyway so my idea for this is that you know, julius of course meets reinhard when hes ten and reinhard is eight and then it alters julius's brain chemistry. at first he's in complete awe of reinhard. and then over time the shame starts setting in. that julius isnt as strong as reinhard. and the jealousy sets in a bit too, so julius's got this chip in his shoulder trying to carry his family's legacy and trying to carry the weight of knighthood to be as perfect as possible. to be as close to reinhard as he can. they meet again in their teens and julius shows reinhard the ropes of like basic knight stuff bc reinhard just joined the knights. and of course reinjuli become friends but julius has spent his whole life quietly watching reinhard from afar and now julius still has that distance with reinhard even as theyre supposedly friends now. reinhard is a God, you know? his powers and his leash from the kingdom and his family keep him distant and the two of them are ignoring that. classic homoerotic "do i want him or want to be him" friendship where both of you are too scared to get any closer for various reasons with a Twist (reinhard's very real monster complex that keeps getting validated bc Everyone Around Him thinks hes a monster).

anyway but then julius remembers that you know, shit between reinhard and him wont work out for many reasons, like reinhards family deciding to torment julius at various points in his life (heinkel, whos julius's boss, and reid, who went from julius's childhood idol to. you know.), and also reinhard needs to have kids because hes the sword saint, and also homophobia exists in rezero. and also even if those werent all obstacles julius still has his Complexes connected to reinhard and they got that distance between them so. no go. (repression gets in the way of relationships :((( )

also quick side note is that ex 4 happens and julius reinhard ferris go to vollachia and julius interrupts a meeting with vincent vollachia himself to go "I UNDERSTOOD THAT LITERARY REFERENCE YOU JUST MADE. THATS A REALLY GOOD REFERENCE I LIKED IT A LOT" bc hes a massive nerd and ig this is slightly-more-of-a-disaster-gay julius au so julius is like ............................. vincent was kinda cool for that.

AND THEN SUBARU CRASHES INTO JULIUS'S LIFE and julius is like seeing this guy who's also got a chip in his shoulder and then he insults the knights and says the knights are all depending on their dads (nepotism) and julius is like .......the chip in my shoulder was bad enough and also youre kinda like me fr. and you are clearly a fucking misguided kid so now i have to save your ass. i cant NOT save your ass. and reinhards like "julius and subaru nooo you dont have to do this :((((" and julius cant admit atm that hes also doing this to save subarus life so julius is just like "he disrespected the knights >:(((("

but yes we all know what happened there. julius saves subarus life. julius has to slice subarus throat in that one failed loop. they become friends across several timelines. they also homoerotically share souls, you know, typical bromance things, rivals to lovers except subarus the one going YOURE MY RIVAL and julius is like he is SUCH an upstart. hes really grown on me like a fungus but thats the appeal. and julius i think sees subaru as like a kindred spirit (or at least thats how i interpret julisuba) except subaru is like way more freer than julius is. same desire to prove yourself but subarus not restraining himself constantly like julius. its sometimes to the point of recklessness and general stupidity and what have you, but his boldness and bravery and determination and heart really is admirable.........................

yeah so anyway julius falls for ANOTHER guy again, you know how it is sometimes. the heart wants what it wants and julius is cursed to always have the worst meetings with his closest friends. and of course julius gets heartbroken bc wtf i have to kill my new friend :((( noo!!!! but in the finished loop its like. oh subaru...... hes really improved himself. hes grown so much already. hes kind of. inspirational really. idk how he does it. except subarus you know got that Mystery to him the same way reinhard does (theyre traumatized and Cant Take About It Normally so they just randomly lore drop what they can) and also subarus SUPER into emilia. and julius is like .................... well. subarus taken. haha. and reinhards. taken. fuck me. fuck. and like somethings going on with subaru and rem and emilia right. fuck. and subarus got his whole toxic masculinity / gender crisis..... and he doesnt know hes Bisexual yet...... man. what a loss for julius amirite haha.

and also subarus busy after arc 3........... and julius has no idea whats happening there but that seems Real serious :(( and julius's got other things to attend to so he hopes subaru reaches out to him eventually..... or that they cross paths again since subarus in the emilia camp and julius is in ana camp (and of course reinhard is in felt camp and like that was a whole debacle bc wtf. reinhard, u do know thatd be a big deal to our mutual friend felix?). so. julius pines from afar ONCE AGAIN HAHA.

(also of course subarus still attracted to reinhard here. its um. well julisuba can bond now over pining over reinhard but thats for later also!!)

anyway of course during arc 3 julius briefly runs into some gray haired merchant twink thats being dragged around by subaru bc ana camp rescued this guy from a cave somewhere??? and this new guy and subaru made a deal or whatever so he was just helping out in the background of the fight against sloth??

and whaddya know................ julius goes to drink at a bar bc you know he probably tastes wine for fun in his free time (hes definitely Fond of wine anyway iirc) and now hes Sad over the Ones That Got Away so. bar it is. and gray haired merchant twink is there!! no way. they start talking a bit casually while drinking you know and julius's taste is Unfortunately either the graceful ones (anastasia, because julius has great taste in women) or the cringe fail ones (all the twinks - except for felix - that julius keeps having the wildest first meetings with, because julius has slightly shit taste in men) so julius is like huh this otto guys kinda funny lol. endearing in a weird way!! and -

oops they both end up being a little. they make a little bit of a move on each other. bc they were drinking and got a Bit tipsy. ottos Also not over the one that got away (subaru) (again) and hey. the finest knight truly is. Fine. objectively fine. totally. so you know. things get a little out of hand, maybe they do a bit of cringe fail flirting hidden underneath five million layers of repression and the Horrors of Being Known but ultimately they both embarrass themselves somehow (read: how far they went with each other while under the influence is up to you) and agree to Never Speak of This Again bc oopsies they were both technically each other's first time being Straightforwardly Not Straight with another man. oops. anyway julius has to go back to his camp and otto fucking bolts but he bolts right into subaru and gets his ass dragged into sanctuary drama.

julius is totally not a little bit envious about that.................... about otto getting to accompany subaru to sanctuary... but dont worry julius!! youll get to make up for it later!! bc eventually arc 5 stuff happens. and julius is Glad to see reinhard and subaru again. even with all the Baggage. and subaru is of course Weird about julius but eventually subaru reassures julius after they both confide in each other about the astrea drama (theyre honorary astreas via being dragged into the astrea family mess). and subarus reassuring to julius in a whole new way okay. subaru, whos unrestrained and incapable of being on the down low about anything, and julius, whos always holding himself back with a gazillion layers of repression, starts learning to let go a bit...

but also juliotto meet again. its terribly awkward and they both agreed to never speak of their awkward encounters again. subaru is going ??? and reinhard is clueless. otto then also goes to save reinhard and felt from heinkel trying to take felt hostage, which was also terribly awkward but reinhard and felt are grateful about it (but lbr if reinhard and otto knew each other deeper reinhard would maybe be a little. Apprehensive. around otto while otto would be sympathetic with reinhard bc hes like male emilia). but then while otto manages not to get erased by gluttony....... julius gets erased. of course. which you know results in being forgotten by reinhard in julius's THIRD first meeting ever with reinhard. and subarus the only one who remembers him of course.

then arc 6 happens :,))))) and julius of course has to confront his ideas of knighthood, his identity, his self esteem, and who he is outside of His Name. and also julius gets his ass beat by reid. his childhood idol. who reinhard KNEW was a shitty person but never ever told julius (whether this is because reinhard wanted to spare julius's hero worship or because reinhard never got the chance to tell julius is hard to say lajdsf). but julius does get to triumphantly win in the end!! grow as a person!!! learn to undo a bit of that repression and not hold himself to impossible standards all the time!! hes growing still!!! hes finally solidified his friendships with people like subaru and emilia!! hes remaking his relationship with anastasia!! hes asserted himself, hes planning on going to meet reinhard again one day and duel him!! things are looking up even if its still bittersweet that he doesnt have his name back yet!! does this mean?? perhaps?? a HAPPY ENDING?? julius can have the two men (reinhard and subaru) he admires the most in his life?????? as friends???? or as boyfriends?????? slowburn mutual pining????????????????????????????????????????

and then comes. arc 8 otto. that piece of shit.

julius is very much someone who has to grapple with the weight of the expectations that people throw at him. and also reinhard is someone who May envy julius a bit, but there's also you know, joshua and subaru with the Explicit Envy and (past) resentment because theyre placing heavy expectations on julius!! theyre pointing blame at julius!! julius is trying to find himself outside of stuff like that, especially after arc 6, but he's still got stuff to work on you know? he still has duties to fulfill!! loyalty that he has to act on bc hes gotta help subaru and co in arc 8!! and then in comes otto.

otto is also someone with expectation placed on him, but its Different. ottos mostly a nobody and when hes Not a nobody, his reputation tends to be Derogatory. hes a menace. hes a bad luck charm. hes grappling with the fact that he has to keep being left behind - post-arc 5 bc he was injured, but also repeatedly during arcs 7 and 8 because hes too physically weak to be on the same playing field as emilia or garfiel or subaru on the battlefield. he feels Useless after placing his identity on the expectation that hes Dependable and Useful.

julius is a bit more on even ground with otto now that julius is. also mostly a nobody bc his name is still gone. and also julius had to deal with having that part of his identity crushed. julius tried to be useful over and over in arc 6 only to get his ass repeatedly curb stomped by reid in the beginning. he was a nobody. he wasnt dependable anymore. and also otto is that one guy he had a Passing Fling with over having The Ones Who Got Away and julius was still vaguely hopeful about maybe being pals at least but ottos brushed him off a bit since arc 5. theyre like each others secrets you know? and now otto doesnt know that shit - julius is the only one who Knows - and otto also hates julius's fucking guts now. over SUBARU. and julius has been through this whole rodeo clown circus with arc 3 subaru so this is an absolutely terrible ride through memory lane.

and this is julius's THIRD twink that hates him for terribly unfair reasons. julius is very tired and a bit heartbroken in this au trying to pretend it doesnt bother him. on one level it doesnt. bc ottos pathetic and clearly Overcompensating for Something. on another level it kinda does bc julius had a Thing going with otto. and otto is the complete opposite of julius. like hes different from the other guys julius has liked.

julisuba is about complimentary opposites - they appear Extremely Different at first glance but theyre very similar. theyre people who try to look and act bigger than they are, people who keep reaching to be The Best, to be Perfect, because theyre overcompensating. theyre worried their entire identity is only built off of trying to be bigger than the shadow that other people in their lives (like their families) cast. but they cant reach perfection. and julius is like subaru but if subaru tried to really make himself "refined" - if he tried to stop putting his heart on his sleeve all the time. reinsuba are very similar too. theyre very refined knights who try to keep themselves in check at all times while the weight of the world is on their shoulders. they cant have a hair out of place. except julius is like the "smaller" version of reinhard. julius is less powerful. its like comparing a human and a "god" - reinhard, whos untouchable. but its a double edged sword, because julius gets to be a normal person, because half the expectation placed on him is also purely from himself, while reinhard isnt. reinhard isnt Free. hes on a leash by the kingdom and his family. julius even gets his kind of "celebrity" status stolen from him via the loss of his name. hes truly kind of Normal now - julius is like if reinhard didnt have his crazy abilities and had a little more of a chance to be free.

otto? yeah otto is. very very far from all of that. hes so obviously imperfect that most of his reputation, when its brought up, is just him being known as a mess who's caused various forms of chaos everywhere he goes. either that or hes just. There. Invisible. very very average. and otto is someone who wants a nice comfortable life, someone who wants to fit in - julius and subaru arent Exactly like that, and while reinhard also wants to be normal, ottos the one who has more of an opportunity. but he doesnt. because otto Dooms Himself by being recklessly cutthroat. otto is like if subaru was just. More of an asshole, so ottojuli would just be a rather Extreme Challenge for julius to have to deal with HAH. and normally otto is someone who repays how people treat him - a very "you treat me like this, i'll treat you the same way in turn" kind of deal, except ottos developed a vendetta against julius and its basically like if subaru never let go of his arc 3 julius vendetta.

yes so anyway. etc etc stuff probably happens but i ran out of ideas lajdlfjasdf i just think combining ALL the boy drama and recontextualizing + adding to canon would be. batshit crazy. and terribly entertaining. im so sorry julius but i want to see you crack a bit under the pressure. reinjuli as a ship is like tragic gay yearning that never goes anywhere past being friends with quiet homoerotic tension, then julisuba is. you know. extreme rivals to lovers, starts out Rough but then ends up being super super sweet and theyre Trying their best underneath the self esteem issues. and then ottojuli is. toxic yaoi at its finest (pun intended). you get Every flavor of mlm possible!!

ok so you may be asking "ok what would you even name this fic then" and to that i say that this would be called To All the Boys I've Loved Before.

anyway i really wanna write this idea someday ill inform you guys (if youre reading this and are Interested) if it ever happens :< so. in conclusion this is just julius the entire time throughout all of these events:

#rezero #re:zero #arc 5-8 spoilers #yes i made this post also so i can dramatically drop the wip title for this fic idea at the end of it and then laugh to myself bc i think #its the most perfect title of all time.#also adding up all of the rezero boy drama is important to me ok. and i was mostly going into the julius side of things in this post aldsjf #it gets messier when you remember reinsuba. and ottosuba. and reinotto. its incredibly funny to me. truly the worlds worst love pentagon.#or love square???? love shape????#on a serious note i would love to see more queer stories exploring like. a person's different relationships over the years. bc sometimes it #does feel like this you know?? having drastically different dynamics with each person and each person knows you in different ways!!#its a fun character study exercise. and it feels true to life imo. you grow and change throughout your life and your relationships at each #time period can kind of reflect who you were as a person at the time. if that makes sense. idk i have many feelings on it HAH #natsuki subaru #reinhard van astrea #otto suwen #julius juukulius #also i do often hc reinhard otto julius as being on the ace spectrum. i dont really write otto being ace in mind for Every wip i do but yes #i do have these hcs and reasoning for them!!! also specifically i hc reinhard as being on the aroace spectrum. these are just hcs of course #hah but yes i quite like my hcs for them.

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