#trump tea party
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How do you feel about electing the house every four years (presidential years) instead of two?
It is true that the United States is one of the only countries in the world with midterm elections. My understanding is that political scientists really go back and forth about whether this is a good thing - while midterm elections allow for the country to react to the policies enacted in the first two years of the most recently elected government and their outcomes, turnout tends to be significantly lower, which limits the extent to which we're really talking about a new expression of the will of the people.
Moreover, it's my understanding that political scientists worry about whether midterm elections increase the possibility of gridlock due to the tendency for the governing party to lose seats to the minority party - creating more periods of divided government. However, I think it's up in the air whether this tends to shift policy to the left or the right:
2006 saw a massive reaction to the War in Iraq, Bush's handling of Katrina, and Republican sleeze in Congress, shifting control of Congress back to the Democrats for the first time since the Gingrich revolution of the 90s.
2010 saw the Tea Party wave, which led to a persistent shift to the right both in Congress and on the state level. Although the Tea Party's fiscal policies haven't really caught on due to their negative economic effects and political popularity, their destabilizing influence on the Republican establishment certainly has persisted - opening the way for the Trump Republicans and a shift to culture war politics.
2018 saw a massive reaction to the Trump scandals and the Republican attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, breaking the Republican control of government won in the 2016 elections as well as the first major shift to Democrats at the state level since 2010. It also showed a significant shift to the left within the Democratic Party with the election of AOC and the Squad - the first breakthrough for the progressive movement's efforts to challenge establishment Democrats.
Without midterm elections, things would be very different: although Bush being able to muddle through 2006 wouldn't really have changed things because of the way the financial crisis wrecked the Republicans in 2008, the butterflying away of the Tea Party wave would really have changed U.S politics profoundly. The Tea Party wave was unusually significant because of the way it coincided with the 2010 Census and the long-term impact it had on state government - we're only starting to get back some areas that went deep red, and even now huge swathe of the country are dominated by ALEC - so avoiding that shift would really transform U.S politics, especially on social policy.
On the other hand, without the ability to challenge Trump through Democratic control of Congress, U.S policy during the COVID crisis might have been much worse and Trump would definitely have been emboldened to accelerate his campaign of corrupting the Federal government to benefit his personal interests and attack his personal and political enemies. Who knows what would have happened on January 6th if Trump had had two more years of a completely free hand. But then again, if there's no Tea Party wave, does Trump still win in 2016?
So I'm ultimately unsure as to whether midterms are a good thing and it's so momentous a change that I'm a little hesitant to recommend it.
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If anyone still labors under the impression that Donald Trump invented the shitshow that is the modern Republican Party, Tuesday's performance on Capitol Hill will have disabused them of that notion. It was déjà vu all over again, just like in 2015 when Kevin McCarthy was humiliated by far right bomb-throwers simply because he was so easy to humiliate, thus giving them leverage and pleasure in equal measure. Poor McCarthy spent the next seven years groveling and genuflecting to these extremists under the foolish impression that they would reward him for his fealty. As Salon's Rae Hodge lays out in detail, on Tuesday afternoon they simply laughed in his face and humiliated him again.
Back in 2015, the newly formed Freedom Caucus, born out of the Tea Party class that came into Congress five years before in the 2010 "shellacking," managed to force then-Speaker John Boehner to resign for having the temerity to make deals with the Democrats in the Senate and the White House in order to keep the government functioning. They were a rump caucus that didn't have the power to stop bipartisan legislation, but they had the leverage to both force Boehner out and prevent the ascension of McCarthy, his anointed successor.
At the time, McCarthy made it easier for them by telling the press that the congressional Benghazi hearings were a set-up to destroy Hillary Clinton (which was obviously true, and wouldn't even raise eyebrows in today's political environment). He also saw the whip count and knew he didn't have the votes of all those Freedom Caucus kooks, and abruptly decided to bow out. After all, the superstar GOP dreamboat and former vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan was waiting in the wings and McCarthy knew he couldn't compete with those baby blues. Ryan took the job for four years but decided not to run for re-election in 2018, largely because those same people made his life as miserable as they'd made his predecessor's.
So this behavior was going on in the Republican Party before Donald Trump had ever uttered the words "Make America Great Again." He didn't invent this lunacy — he just watched it unfold and saw the opportunity to use it. After all, Trump had already done a test run with his birther nonsense, and liked the vibe. In effect, the GOP has been heading down this anarchic path for decades. Trump undoubtedly made it worse, but he didn't create it. Right now, in fact, he seems almost irrelevant to its descent into further madness.
Trump supposedly whipped votes for McCarthy and it did no good with the diehards. It remains to be seen if he still has the loyalty of the 30% to 40% of Republican voters he will need to remain viable in the presidential race, but he clearly has no pull in Congress. In truth, he didn't have much when he was President — his personal attacks on the late Sen. John McCain cost Republicans their most cherished policy objective, repealing the Affordable Care Act.
McCarthy's catering to the far-right faction hasn't done him a damn good either. In fact, the only people who anyone thinks might have some sway with this group are the real leaders of the Republican Party:
Tuesday night on Fox News, Sean Hannity evoked Ronald Reagan saying something about being loyal to the party, which will have zero effect on people who think of Reagan with the same reverence they have for Grover Cleveland or Calvin Coolidge. They are more likely to pay attention to Tucker Carlson, who had this to say:
That's paranoid nonsense that even the Republican House majority thinks is nuts, but I wouldn't be surprised if the crazies end up extracting this promise from whoever finally wins the gavel. Carlson is their intellectual guru, after all. And I think we know how this new "Church Committee" (as well as the "Laptop From Hell" committee and the "Lock Up Dr. Fauci" committee and all the rest) will actually unfold. These are not serious people dedicated to good-faith oversight. They're a nihilistic carnival act run by folks who are desperate for attention. We're in for a gruesome train wreck of a congressional session.
The problem with having insurrectionists within your own caucus is that they care nothing for the party, much less the country. They looked at the last three losing elections and now feel liberated to do their worst. All the anti-McCarthy members come from deep-red districts that voted for Trump by double digits. They have nothing personally to lose by acting out their darkest political fantasies. They didn't come to Congress to do anything but wreck the place and if that means taking their own party down with it, they couldn't care less.
As CNN's Ron Brownstein points out, Republicans consolidated their hold on red states in the last few elections. In 2022 they nailed down places like Florida, Texas, Iowa and Tennessee for the foreseeable future. But they also won 18 seats in districts that voted for Joe Biden, half of which are in New York and California, blue states which will see much higher turnout in a presidential-election year. They can't afford to lose any of those, but this House circus is going to put every one of those members on the chopping block.
If the last three elections have shown anything, it's that swing-state voters are decisively rejecting the far-right crusade that has so many people in red states spellbound. According to Brownstein, a new analysis of the midterms shows that "in the key House, Senate and gubernatorial races across the 15 states with the most competitive statewide contests involving candidates clearly identified with a Trump-style agenda, Democrats largely matched or even exceeded their 2020 margins — a remarkable showing during the first midterm election for the party holding the White House."
It's not hard to see why. In the last few years we've had one "historic" political crisis after another. Just since 2019 there have been two impeachments, a president refusing to honor election results, a violent insurrection and now, on the very first day of the new Congress, clear evidence that the most radical "Trump-style" officials in the GOP are pulling the strings and the larger majority in the party is helpless to stop them.
Let's hope that all those swing-state voters who came out in 2018, 2020 and again in 2022 will now understand that this isn't just about stopping Donald Trump, as worthy as that is. They need to make sure that Republicans are kept out of power until they demobilize this destructive faction and reinvent themselves as responsible, patriotic participants in the political process. They certainly aren't there yet, and maybe it's just a lost cause.
#us politics#news#op eds#Heather Digby Parton#salon#2023#118th congress#us house of representatives#speaker of the house#house freedom caucus#tea party#conservatives#republicans#gop#John Boehner#Paul Ryan#rep. kevin mccarthy#donald trump#max cohen#fox news#Sean Hannity#tucker carlson#@acyn#organized religion#separation of church and state#hunter biden's laptop#dr. anthony fauci#republican platform#Ron Brownstein#alt right
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i had to unfollow kinzinger on twitter at the start of the war in ukraine not bc i have an issue with him supporting UA but because well. at the end of the day he is a born-again evangelical tea partier….
#he’s probably the most famous person i’ve met irl tho that was well before trump even considered running for president#so he was nowhere near as famous#i think he’d made some headlines when he was first elected bc he was so young and also. tea party. but yeah
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I'm here for it
Watching angry Republicans blame Democrats for their woes has made my week. To hear them tell it, Democrats had the responsibility to save Kevin McCarthy. One conservative pundit even blamed Democrats for not fielding a candidate who could beat Matt Gaetz without ever considering a competent primary challenge. Last month, they were whining that Democrats forced Republicans to vote for Donald…
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End Times Prophecy Headlines: September 19, 2022
End Times Prophecy Headlines: September 19, 2022
End Times Prophecy Report.com
HEADLINES
MONDAY
September 19, 2022
And OPINION
“And Jesus answered and said unto them, Take heed that no man deceive you.”
—Matthew 24:4
===INTERNATIONAL
UKRAINE: Ukraine’s foreign minister updates state of war after seven months of fighting Russia – What the vast majority of Americans ONLY know about the ‘war in Ukraine,’ they read in the papers…
RUSSIA: Putin…
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#"crisis"#a corporate media reminder#church fables about the gathering together#going back to paper ballots#Hillary: the anti-Trump?#if I were the devil#is the USA being prepared for a major loss of power?#it&039;s my tea party and I&039;ll cry if I want to#real American racism#science vs God and the truth#the last days are not so scary to those who do not believe they will occur#the problem with drugs#what happens to demonic entitites when the last days are finished for these servants of God?
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Hey, everyone! You want to pull the ultimate prank against the Republican party? I mean this would be EPIC!
On November 5, 2024, all 50 million US citizens between 18 and 30 need to take to the streets and demonstrate against the erosion of civil rights for women, BIPOC, disabled, LBGTIAA+, and transgendered people. Take to the streets...and march right down to your polling station and vote! (Or, you know, early vote.)
This would be the flash mob to beat all flash mobs. The Republicans would never see you coming, because their whole strategy depends on keeping you depressed and disengaged.
Don't like the direction the Democrats are going? Take a page out of the Tea Party's book--they changed the direction of the Republican party by voting for it, and now they own it. Vote Democrat and nudge it leftward this election--then keep nudging it until you can take the wheel. Because the alternative is a hard right turn by the Republicans.
Not only would this be a lifesaver for countless people who are not "White male Christian Conservative Americans", it would also be funny as hell. Want to see Trump have a meltdown on international television? Want to see pollsters and political pundits say "What the fuck?!" Want to see the newspapers suddenly flock to gay nightclubs and college campuses to interview "average voters" instead of rural diners?
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The Missing Card
Introducing: Jester!Yuu
(You have no idea that I've had this image saved for over a year and a half and I'm so excited to finally use it. Call me a clown fucker if you want I'm in love.)
It's about time we finish the Heartslabyul card deck.
A "standard" deck of playing cards consists of 52 Cards in each of the 4 suits of Spades, Hearts, Diamonds, and Clubs. Each suit contains 13 cards: Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King.
But something is missing.
A card that despite what you think isn't in the traditional deck at least not originally. A blank card printed by mistake that became something more.
The Jocker had made its way to the deck and now the trump card that either makes or breaks the game lives on.
There is a special rule at Heartslabyul. One that Riddle loaths to acknowledge. The contradiction to everything he knows.
It is the Jester's privilege to be exempt from the rules of the courts.
It's a rule that many don't read and it's for the best that no one knows how to be a Jester.
What is a court without its fool?
They met at exactly 12 pm during afternoon tea.
They sat sideways in the queen's chair happily eating tarts.
"You! How dare you sit in my chair and show such flagrant disrespect for the rules of this dorm!" Riddle shouted pointing at the colorfully dressed student.
Said student looked over the table at the group of assembling crowd of students who were arriving for the tea party.
Smiling wildly they did a somersault across the table and landed in front of the drom leader.
"I have arrived my queen! Your new and approved jester of your court!" They said spinning before falling into a low bow. The bells and ribbons braided into the hair fluttering around them.
Riddle got a good look at this "jester" and they certainly looked the part. The star painted over their eye and the black and red costume fit Heartslabyul like a glove. Their upper lip was painted black and their lower a bright scarlet. It was garish but beautiful.
"Approved? Who approved a clown like you to be a jester!" Riddle ordered.
Ace and Deuce looked in opposite directions as he said this.
It wasn't intentional but Ace and Deuce had run into a street performer in the town near the school.
"Come one, come all and see the show!" They said balancing on a giant ball juggling pins.
They sang, did tricks, played music, did magic tricks, and all around entertained the crowd.
Ace and Deuce were mystified by the show so much they ended up watching the whole thing.
When it ended the performer tanked everyone as they began to pack up.
"Hey, where did you learn those tricks?"Ace didn't want to miss the chance to learn a few new card tricks.
"You must be an amazing wizard! I didn't even see you wave a wand!" Deuce innocently.
"Dude, they obviously just used tricks and not magic." Ace sighed.
The performer laughed. They told them they did shows to earn money while at school.
"It's easy to put on a show but real magic isn't something I can do. Sucks when you go to a magic college but I think it's fun." They smiled.
"Wait you go to NRC? I've never seen you before." Ace asked trying to remember their face.
"Ace? What are you talking about? We sit next to each other in Trein's class." They covered their mouth giggling.
Suddenly it clicked.
"Yuu?! You're Yuu?!" Ace yelled incredulously.
Yuu was just some quiet kid that didn't say much. The only thing that stood out about them was just how dull they were. Not that Ace said that to them. Yuu kind of just blended into the background.
"In the flesh!~♡ I was wondering when you'd notice." They said cheerfully.
"Well you are always with Grimm it's hard to put it together," Ace said rubbing his neck
"Yeah, you don't stand out at all otherwise-" Deuce began before Ace slapped his hand over his mouth.
"It's okay, I know how people see me. But I can hardly walk around in costume around campus no matter how fun it sounds." Yuu pouted absent-mindedly shuffling a deck of cards that appeared out of nowhere. "If I could go all out and do shows whenever school would be more fun."
"You're telling me. Having a personal clown would make Riddle's scolding bearable. Man that would be funny if you'd pie him in the face." Ace cackled at the thought. "You'd make a good...what's it called...oh, a fool."
"A fool? You mean like a royal jester?" Yuu asked pursing their lips in thought.
"Yeah, you could really take Riddle down a peg if you were. Honestly, morale gets so low when he's in a bad mood. He needs to have more fun." Ace ranted unknowingly giving Yuu an idea.
Deuce nodded in agreement as he examined Yuu props. The top hat looked pretty cool on him.
"Actually that sounds fun. I think I'll make a great jester!" Yuu laughed heartily.
They had no idea what chaos they had welcomed to Heartslabyul.
#jester!Yuu#twisted wonderland#twisted wonderland x reader#twisted wonderland yuu#twst yuu#twst riddle#riddle rosehearts#heartslabyul#riddle rosehearts x reader#twisted wonderland riddle#ace trapolla x yuu#ace trappola x reader#twst ace#ace trappola#duece spade x reader#deuce spade x reader#duece spade#twst duece
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"Outgoing House Republican Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) added some further insights into his decision to retire and blasted many of his fellow Republicans for being willing to “lie” for Donald Trump."
"We’re at a time in American politics, that I am not going to lie on behalf of my presidential candidate, on behalf of my party. And I’m very sad that others in my party have taken the position that, as long as we get the White House, it doesn’t really matter what we say."
“We’ve gone from a time when the Tea Party stood for conservative principles, for constitutional principles, to a time where the [populists] have taken over the Republican Party and are really advocating things that I believe are very dangerous.”
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This story has been clarified to reflect that U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie said in the tweet that he believes he can read top secret information on the floor of Congress. There was no indication that he plans to read any such information.
U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie said on Twitter that he could reveal national secrets by reading them aloud in Congress.
Massie, a Kentucky Republican who tends to embrace Tea Party and Libertarian ideals, believes a clause in the U.S. Constitution enables him to read top secret information included in documents involved in former President Donald Trump's latest indictment tied to his handling of classified information aloud in committee hearings, which are broadcast live on C-SPAN.
"For what it’s worth, under the Constitution, no member of Congress can be prosecuted for reading aloud on the floor any of the documents Trump allegedly has copies of," Massie tweeted Monday.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Massie has not acted on his reading of the law by revealing top secret information.
Massie, who represents Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, has accused President Joe Biden's administration of weaponizing government with Trump's indictment. Biden has said he's never pressured the Department of Justice in the case and has not and will not speak with Attorney General Merrick Garland about it.
As part of his indictment, Trump faces 31 counts of willful retention of national defense information under the Espionage Act. The documents were described as some of the country's most important secrets, including "top secret," requiring special handling, the originator determines who receives the documents and not for release to foreign nationals, according to the indictment.
#us politics#news#the courier journal#2023#rep. thomas massie#Kentucky#republicans#conservatives#tea party movement#libertarians#libertarians be like#speech and debate clause#us constitution#donald trump#classified documents#classified documents probe
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Trump said to the Tea Party he would eliminate the deficit. When he added $8.2 TRILLION in four years, they didn't say a word.
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I mean, they been a cult. A death cult for the NRA, a hate group for the KKK, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, etc etc etc. Republicans (writ large) are just an extension of the Tea Party & the Confederacy, and whatever other shitty misogynistic racist movements preceded those shitty misogynistic racist movements
I was about to say, “Here’s to hoping they gulp down ALL the Kool-Aid when he loses,” but if the election of 2016 taught me anything, it’s to never underestimate the propensity of a majority of white voters to vote for thee worst possible candidate.
(source)
Unfortunately, Trump’s loss at the ballot box and in court is not guaranteed, not by any stretch of the imagination.
They’re a cult.
So no matter what, let’s don’t get too cocky.
We still gotta do the work.
#politics#republicans#cults#trump or death#right wing nut jobs#tre45on#traitors#death cult#hate groups
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CPAC. Glenn Beck. The John Birch Society. Ron Paul. The point isn’t that all the ingredients were there for what became seditious conspiracy. It’s not as simple as a pinch of Ron Paul and a dollop of Birchers and a cup of Tea Party and presto you have a coup. Rather, the point is that conservatism in America, or what passed for it in its various manifestations, went off the rails more than a decade before the events of Jan. 6. Barack Obama’s election was, we all know, a catalyzing event. But it didn’t start there, and it certainly didn’t start in 2016 with the election of Donald Trump.
The Path From The Tea Party Through Jan. 6 To Today
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Do you think Barack Obama was a good president?
For the most part, yes. The fact that he got elected in the first place (and in a landslide) was nothing short of miraculous, but those of you on the younger side don't remember just how FUCKING FED UP the entire country was with Dubya and his bullshit. It didn't really matter if you were Democrat or Republican. Everyone hated him, especially when he went out in 2008 by causing a generational economy-crashing cataclysm. For him to go from a 91%+ approval rating just after 9/11, to the low 20s by the time he left office, shows just how sick and tired everyone was with him, and how we fondly (ha) imagined that he would be the worst American president in our lifetime. How very innocent we were.
The fact that Obama, a black guy with the middle name Hussein, who had not even a full term as a US senator as his only real meaningful political experience, could come in there and win is a feeling that honestly is nothing like anything anyone had experienced in politics before. I remember staying up with my family (I was studying abroad in the UK) over phone/Skype until the race was called for Obama around 3am, and one of my classmates ran outside the flat in delirium yelling "OBAMA WON!!!" The pictures of elderly African-Americans just crying their eyes out on that night, and the way they still look at Barack and Michelle now, is special. Yes, of course the reality didn't totally live up to the promise of that moment, but man, for a little while there, it really felt like we had changed the entire paradigms on which this stupid flawed country had been built from the beginning. I can't imagine we'll feel like that again for a long, long time.
Obama managing to save the economy (as noted before, it's a theme that Democratic presidents have to come in and clean up the ungodly mess left by Republicans) and pass the Affordable Care Act, even as watered-down as it was from what he wanted, were two very significant accomplishments. Where he fell short, however, was in his dealings with said Republicans, and obviously not all of this was his fault. Obama was intensely conscious of his position as a political newcomer AND that he was a black guy. The level of racism, vitriol, and sheer ugliness that he (and his family) faced from all quarters was (and is) yeah. We got the Tea Party, the "birthers," and the rest of the radical-right lunatics out in full force, and Obama was aware that he was going to get blamed for everything and then some. He also wanted to think that the Republicans would throw a hissy fit and then get over it and work with him. They didn't. Not for one single day. Not on anything. Just because he was a Democratic black guy. That was all it took, and they stuck to it even as Obama kept reaching for the football and thinking that THIS time, surely they would be reasonable. They weren't. On anything. Ever.
Likewise, the Democrats were caught unprepared by the special election for Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts senate seat, which they lost (taking them from a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority to 59, after which the Republicans accordingly filibustered everything and the Democrats didn't push hard enough to stop them/change the rules). They also seemed to just assume that hey, the country voted for Obama in 2008, they'd clearly do it again in 2010, and they didn't really hype up the ACA or campaign for it or anything like that. So they got shellacked to the tune of 60+ House seats lost in 2010, and then lost the Senate in 2014, allowing Mitch McConnell to flat-out blockade Merrick Garland's SCOTUS nomination (who Obama picked to fill Antonin Scalia's seat) and get away with it. Obama was also not nearly as assertive about nominating judges as Biden has been, though it's also the case that Trump hadn't yet packed the benches with an endless conveyor belt of unqualified uber-conservative hacks. Once again, I think this is a reflection of Obama's overall political inexperience and the fact that he felt he had to "play nice" or get pigeonholed as the "angry black guy," which he then did anyway. So it really was a catch-22.
Online Leftists always like to yelp about "Obama ordering a lot of drone strikes!!!", as if they a) know anything else about American foreign policy, b) are at all interested in criticizing Trump for using EVEN MORE (by like... a lot, and nearly starting WWIII when he killed the Iranian general with one), or c) ever consider the overall ungodly fucking mess that Obama was ALSO left with in Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm not about to defend or agree with that either, but it's disingenuous (as per usual with them) to suggest that that was the only thing Obama did during his presidency and/or that he should be judged on that alone. They also like to pretend that he faced no racism at all, that he could have just "codified Roe vs. Wade and didn't!", that there were no double standards in how he was treated by the press, the political establishment, and the American people, and so on.
So: overall, yes, I think Obama had good intentions and tried to do the right thing. He failed at certain major parts of that, both because of the Republicans and because he didn't have the experience to challenge them or know how to work around them, and because he was in an utterly impossible position. The intense white backlash that gave rise to Trump showed that contrary to what anyone liked to think about Obama's election heralding a "post-racial" era, it was back and more ugly and public than it had been in a long time. It was also surprising that our first black president was a Democrat, and not a Republican shill like Tim Scott and/or Clarence Thomas, who has been allowed to rise in the party only because he faithfully repeats all the maxims of the (white) GOP ruling class. So the sheer strength of Obama Derangement Syndrome, which persists today, has to figure into any appraisals of either what he did or what he could have reasonably been expected to accomplish, and I don't think people get that.
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Since I have been accidentally doomposting recently around the I/P conflict might as well balance that! The long game is in fact working okay in regards to the US - many more Americans are souring on Israel's response. This poll is overstating it imo (you see lower numbers in other polls) and that doesn't mean this is *salient* or anything to voters, they don't care that much. But the Democratic party is clearly turning against Israel's continued excesses in cruelty. And this was probably "inevitable" in the sense that as the events of Oct 7th receded and Israel continued to blunder the weight of daily news would take its toll. You see that in White House policy even, which began as more-or-less obligatorily supportive of Israel given how horrible Oct 7th was, to growing impatience with the horrors they were inflicting in return. (IMO Biden is over the "hump" of his old-man-default stance of Israel being the Good Guys, he has too many bitterly bruising encounters with Israel's government recently. But that is tea leaves reading for sure)
Now ofc the US doesn't actually have much of a role in the conflict, few responses "within the overton window" are going to make that much of a difference (the US is not going to arms embargo Israel under virtually any scenario, alas, and even that extreme act would only make a small impact). And ofc the Republican party is not shifting nearly as much, so if for example Biden & the Dems lose the election that would virtually eliminate any soft pressure the US is currently exerting on Israel to moderate (which has done something but not much so far). But until then I think both the voting base for the Dems and the admin in general has been shifting towards stronger advocacy for increased aid & security to the Palestinian people, which is probably the best way US policy can help.
With very low confidence I think US policy towards the conflict has been improving recently and it might continue to swing up, reducing the acute danger a lot of Palestinian people currently face. Ofc the question of "will Israel let that happen" hangs over it all; I am certainly less sanguine about that. In particular, Netanyahu can read polls just like I can - an Israeli strategy of "waiting for Donald Trump to come to power" has to be on his radar. And no foreign state has demonstrated its eager willingness to play the game of US domestic politics like Israel has. But the election is still far off, Israeli doesn't really have that kind of time, so there are some real windows here.
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