that jacket is almost 9 hours of work for me converting to euros and back 😭😭😭😭 sounds like an awesome find and a good deal for what it is but at least to me that is not cheap 

Well it's cheap for me only because Icelandic minimum wage is much higher than in most other countries because the cost of living is outrageous

Politics?? In My Chainsaw Man?

I can’t sleep, so we’re doing a sleep-deprived political reading of chainsaw man part 1, Spoilers inbound.

Alright, the simplest reading of chainsaw mans political messaging is about the meaning of labour and worker abuse.

It's about how Japanese society directly breaks people in the way they are treated and expected to work. The phrasing of "contracts" being made with powerful devils seems pretty deliberate. Especially in the way that the literal bosses of every organization are either literal devils (Makima) Or will do things just as bad. The theme of, "You have to be crazy to work here" is one phrase that's shown and expanded upon with each of the characters. The problem is that “here” means everywhere. You have to be crazy to work, period.

Denji

Denji enters the story missing parts of his body and living in poverty. Eating cigarettes because it’ll get him cash. Unable to ask for a happy life because he’s barely even living one. In a conventional story, Denji would rise to higher ranks to make more money or suddenly come into massive wealth, but that isn’t what happens.

Pochita is seen as an asset, something to use for just his value and nothing more until he meets Denji. 

Something special about Denji nobody really talks about is that he never dreams of labour, he only ever dreams about living a normal life, never the means to which he’ll get it.

He simply does what he can to survive. When Pochita brings Denji back to life he doesn’t tell him to get to work or to put his powers to use. A key difference between the contract Denji and Pochita make is that it’s not an exchange. Nothing is lost the same way other devil hunters make contracts. He leaves all of it up to Denji and simply asks to see his dreams. He only ever wants Denji to keep on dreaming.

So he does.

Until Makima comes in, at least. See, there's also the very subtle subtext about how Makima literally controls the uneducated worker with promises that can never really go anywhere. 

Taking control of his desire and motivations to make him a better worker or, as she phrases it, “dog” (Check out my writeup about Denji and Boobs for a little more about that.)

The System

Most characters who play directly into the system or accept it end up dying pretty horrible deaths that can be blamed on someone above their level. Makima is untouchable because she can move any damage to her onto the average citizen. It’s a method of avoiding responsibility. Governments try and create a tax on shitty practices? The company still does it and just raises prices on people to compensate. Wanna raise the minimum wage? Hope you enjoy an unnecessary price increase on your coffee because some dickhead can always offshore the cost to the average person.

Aki and Power both end up playing into the system and suffer for it. Makima gives the trio a healthy situation and living space and promotes the idea of a family that the system can ultimately take away at any time if you aren't working the way she wants. It almost seems to mimic how the current Japanese obsession with work is almost entirely responsible for the low birth rates because these big companies and governments are the only ones who can give you the chance to start a proper family. They’ll never give that because the culture is so backbent in their favour in the obsession with work.

Also, Denji sings about unions once, which quite literally is the process of workers coming together to use their power to benefit and control their future. 

But what’s the point? What’s the point of Makima’s fascism? The point of Leftist Denji and everything. 

Well, the answer is in cinema.

Makima mentions that in her perfect world, there are no bad movies. Denji rejects this. Denji knows that the world isn’t that cut and dry and that people will find love and value in different ways. Makima is an agent of modernity. The ideology of “everything has a purpose.” In Makima’s perfect world, there are no weak people, there is no suffering, and there are no weak humans, there is no Denji. There are no bad movies. 

Makima is every producer, she’s every studio note and screen test. She’s not on the side of art or humanity, she’s on the side of whatever the system deems correct.

Denji doesn’t give a shit. He isn’t the post-modern hero that needs to understand and question the system. He’s honestly maybe even past that point. I’m 100% certain he doesn’t have an answer to fixing the world, but he knows Makima isn’t it. So Denji breaks free and does what he wants to. He decides to go to school to learn. (Realistically, he is not paying attention in classes, but you learn more than just the curriculum at school)  He decides that his life is gonna have all kinds of movies, and nobody’s gonna decide how he makes his. 

Denji is a high schooler shooting films on his phone, and he’s better for it. 

Hello, this is Oldie Chinese Diaspora™️ Anon again. It’s always nice when folks ask specific questions, especially when they were asked in good faith. And to the best of my abilities, I am happy to answer. I say this, because unless I camp outside the factories themselves and ask the workers how much they are paid, what I am doing here is to make educated guesses. Of course, your mileage may vary, but I do my best.

Also: I would like to correct myself from last time. The recaster’s factory is located in Taihe region, in the Jiangxi province. I cited it as Xianxi last time. And I would like to apologize for that mistake.

Here's a little bit about China’s history of industrialization in the last 50 years. The previous chairman, Deng Xiaoping, understood that China cannot completely shut the rest of the world out and still survive. His idea of “let a small set of people get rich first” led to the opening of the Eastern seaboard as trading hubs in the late 80’s. As a consequence, outside money diffused inward from major trading centres such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, along with concepts such as a livable wage and better standard of living. Of course, this is not to say that people who survive on the lowest rung of the socioeconomic strata do not get exploited, it means on the preponderance of things, people who live and work on the coast are, on average, much better off than people who live inland.

This can be seen from the publicly available income disclosure published by the provincial government. Guangdong province is one of the richest provinces in China, with the average income at $108,045 RMB ($15,157USD) per year in 2020. ( http://stats.gd.gov.cn/tjkx185/content/post_3305936.html) If you take the region which Shenzhen belongs to, the average income per year jumps up to $112,955 RMB ($15,846 USD). Compare this to Jiangxi where the average annual income is $52,677 RMB ($7390 USD) per year in 2021, we see a drastic difference. (http://tjj.jiangxi.gov.cn/art/2022/6/2/art_38582_3982696.html ) In the region which Taihe belongs to, the average income per year is $50,147RMB ($7035 USD). [Note: These numbers are collated from tax data and independently published by each province. Some data can be missing, which explains the difference between 2020/2021. The growth rate year-on-year is less than 10%, however (9.4% for Guangdong, 7.8% for Jiangxi). The differences are unlikely to affect the overall picture much.]

I think we can all agree that unskilled manual labourers tend to earn below the average when it comes to income. That’s true everywhere. For an unskilled labourer in Taihe, Jiangxi, it means to earn less than $4178 RMB ($586USD) a month. It’s not too far away from the numbers that I have cited from last time. I may not be able to get the most accurate numbers, but the least I can do for you is to offer you the most educated guess I can manage.

Someone asked “How do we know that’s not how legit companies operate as well?” The answer is actually a bit more complicate than just pure numbers. You’ll have to buckle in with me for this one.

You see, when it comes to manufacturing anything, there is a continuum: on one hand you have someone who produces a very small amount but sells for a high price per item (think haute couture). On the other hand, you have people who push their profit margins very low and survive through sheer production numbers. Most manufacturers lie somewhere along this line. For most legit companies, their mode of operation is closer to the first kind – we see that through the short pre-order period, small number of limited sets, etc. These companies do not have the ability to pump out 6,000 dolls per month (as per the recaster’s own company profile: https://chinabjd.en.alibaba.com/company_profile.html) so they survive through setting their items at a higher price. With a smaller batch means 1. You are producing within your means and 2. A better chance with quality control. For the recaster, the mode of operation is closer to the second type – the profit margin may be low, but they are pushing through with volume. Combined with pitifully cheap labour, the recaster’s profit margin is large enough for it to survive … and grow.

For the people who doubt the ability for recasts to strangle the viability of legit companies, here’s your answer as well. In order to survive, the recaster has no choice but to crank out as many dolls as possible. Over time, legit companies will close up due to the fact that their numbers cannot compete. You are seeing a field where it’ll be 3, 4 recasts to one legit doll, for example. And one by one, smaller companies that do not have the ability to pivot/innovate/stay one step ahead of the recasters will be choked out of the arena, eventually leaving only the recaster. The bootleg/counterfeit economy is therefore parasitic, but precariously so. If the parasite grows too fast, it will kill the host and kill itself in the process. Luo understands that his empire is growing to a degree that legit companies are feeling the squeeze. It may explain why he is trying to reach out to independent artists and offering itself as a casting service (think the recent Junji Ito-inspired doll head) in order to prevent itself from being too successful to the point of killing itself.

And finally, for the person who asked: Yes, the “Main markets and product” indicate where the company is selling to. North America seems to be the second largest market after Russia. It makes some sense to me, but it’s difficult to articulate without doing more research. Therefore, I am unable to comment on this part further.

Still, I have to confess that I am no economist. If anyone here has a business degree and has more insight into what we’re talking about here, please feel free to jump in!

~Anonymous

New Post has been published on All about business online

New Post has been published on https://yaroreviews.info/2023/07/us-inflation-rises-at-slowest-pace-in-two-years

US inflation rises at slowest pace in two years

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The rate of price growth in the US dropped to its slowest pace in more than two years last month, helped by cheaper used cars.

Inflation rose 3% in the year to June, according to data, from 4% in May.

Inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022 and the latest reading marks the slowest pace since March 2021.

The figures suggest a succession of interest rate rises have punctured soaring prices.

However, analysts still expected the US Federal Reserve to raise rates again this month.

Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, said June’s slowdown in US inflation was “really only a small step in the right direction.”

“In the context of a still tight labour market and sticky wage growth, the Fed’s recent concerns about inflation persistence are not going away, ” he said.

The rise in US inflation in June was driven by higher housing costs, the Labor Department said.

In contrast, prices for used cars and trucks dropped while the cost of food stuffs such as pork, milk and eggs declined. Many households had been struggling with higher grocery bills after the war in Ukraine disrupted global food supplies.

The figures underscore the relatively rapid progress the US has made in curbing price increases, especially compared to the UK, where inflation hit 8.7% in the year to May despite a number of interest rate rises.

Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee who is now professor of economics at Dartmouth, said that the US economy was more nimble than the UK.

He said the UK economy had been hit by Brexit, which has made it more difficult for firms to do things like switch supply chains to lower cost alternatives.

“There’s been a Covid shock for everybody and there’s been a war shock for everybody,” he said. “The question is what distinguishes the UK from everywhere else and I would say the answer is Brexit.”

In the US, the central bank has raised interest rates from near zero to 5% since March last year in a bid to cool the economy and ease the pressures that had been pushing up prices.

Policymakers at the Federal Reserve have signalled that they are likely to raise rates again this month and many expect further increases later in the year.

Officials have pointed to concerns about so-called core inflation. This measure strips out food and energy costs, which can vary month-to-month.

Core inflation has shown signs of stalling at a pace that would keep inflation higher than the bank’s 2% target.

But the latest data from the US Labor Department showed core inflation that was lower than expected. It rose by just 0.2% between May and June, the smallest increase since August 2021.

Core inflation slowed to 4.8% in the year to June, from 5.3% in the 12 months to May.

Stocks opened higher and the dollar fell following the report as investors bet it signalled that the Fed would be able to stop raising rates soon.

But business owner Paul Shmotolokha said his firm, Arizona-based New Use Energy Solutions, was still grappling with the effect of earlier cost rises.

Paul said that those increases had put pressure on his firm – which designs and manufactures solar and battery systems – to raise prices. It comes just as rising living costs mean potential customers are watching their spending more carefully.

“It’s good news looking forward but it doesn’t rectify all of the inflation that we’ve experienced for the last several years,” he added. “I think it needs another month or two… to have businesses breathe a sigh of relief.”

Related Topics

US economy

Inflation

More on this story

US jobs growth weakest in more than two years

5 days ago

How worried should I be about the US economy?

13 June

Games of Tomorrow

Header created by my muse and bb R. Title: Games of Tomorrow. Pairing: Taehyung x Reader. Mentions of: Hoseok, Jin, Subin (Victon) and OC’s Summary: A simple game of beer pong stirred up some not so innocent feelings between you and the man you held much disdain for. After all, he was your enemy. The person you couldn’t seem beat when it came to grades. You were never enough for the rich and popular but maybe just maybe you’d show them what you were all about.  Words: 13k Rating: M  Genre: Enemies to Lovers!au, College au!, Smut, Fluff, Angst.

This was all inspired by this photo which I just edited (color, background and the text)so all original photo credits go to the owner.

A/N: What started as a simple short drabble ended in this much longer than intended fic. This is my first pic so pls be gentle. I am but a noob to tumblr writing. I hope you enjoy this craziness <3 this fic is dedicated to my friend who picked Tae to be the first character I wrote about and sat there and listened to me freaking out cause the fic kept getting longer. Ily R. This is Un-Edited so i apologize in advance for the mistakes. I’ll re-read it and fix mistakes as i come across them. Tags/Warnings: Smutty smut smut, Jealousy, Drinking, Mention of Marijuana, Oral (female receiving) Fingering (female receiving), Unprotected sex (wrap it up kids) Fluff, Angst, Size kink, Tae mentioning his DIG BICK, semi rough sex (not really though).

Fic inspired Playlist Link:

spotify:playlist:77Hd51hVnDHe8Q9JaLxGbD

Taglist: @a-mess-of-fandoms @dnyad

—————————————

“Absolutely not” you said calmly into the cellphone receiver. “But y/n! You need to let loose once in awhile, and no I’m not talking about sitting on your couch eating bowls of Ramen and cheese popcorn while watching re-runs of Boy Meets World with a big glass of too much Whiskey” Layla practically whined. She had been trying to convince you to go with her to Seokjin’s party on Saturday for an entire hour. She was right, you knew this coming weekend you’d be plopped onto that same blue couch in your big band t-shirt and fuzzy socks doing exactly that. “I’ll think about it” you finally mumbled out and could practically hear the smile in your best friends voice as she exclaimed a ‘woot woot’ “Okay Hot Stuff, i’ll text you later, gotta get to Volleyball Practice” with that she hung up and you continued your walk to what you’d call a ‘Headache’ of a class.  It’s not that you hated Econ per say, it’s that you studied your ass off, completed extra credit assignments with a flourish and took wonderfully color coded notes (if you say so yourself). But yet, HE still scored higher than you (even if it was just by one point) and what’s worse is that he NEVER seemed to study, never seemed to care.  Trudging into class you took your usual seat in the second row close to the middle. Organizing your laptop, books and assortment of pencils and pens on the table. As Professor Carmine began his lesson writing “Principles of Economics” onto the whiteboard with his usual navy blue marker, you diligently took notes and nodded along with his rhetorical questions.  “Before we end for today lets see who can answer this simple yet intriguing question, “Would you consider Inflation or Deflation of cost cycles to be more costly to a business?” You pondered on how to word your answer for about two seconds before raising your hand. “Yes Ms. Y/L/N” you shifted in your seat slightly. “While I know this question has no definite answer as it can be interpreted many ways, I would say with our current Economy, Inflation of prices would be more costly,” Before you could continue you heard a Deep Baritone voice that you knew too well scoff. “So you think Deflation would benefit a business? that’s essentially lowering your prices which in turn leads to loss of income” You rolled your eyes nonchalantly and turned around in your seat to look at the man in the fourth row who had not only interrupted you but disagreed and voiced his disagreement.  “I said with our current economy Inflation could hurt a business. Do you think regular people can afford to buy a $3,000 purse when they make minimum wage? It could cost a company to make said purse for $200 with cost of material and labor. If you lower those prices by a fraction, said company would still be making money and you could possibly have more demand as more people with regular paying jobs can afford you buy said purse. If you higher the price less  regular people can afford such a luxury item which could hurt the demand. Thus causing an issue with the income for a business”. You said staring at the red haired man pulling a cock of his right eyebrow from him. “Regular people don’t need a $3,000 bag, you want brands to lower the prices so poor people can buy their items? How sad. Tae is right, just higher the prices and get more money. Businesses will make their money regardless of the lower or middle class purchasing their items, as long as they have people like us,” a high pitched voice you recognized as Nami said gesturing to herself and the perfect barbies next to her “buying from them”. Before you continue the alarm from your Professors phone startled you and signaled the end of not only your Monday class but your discussion as well. You picked up your items, shoving them in your bag and trudged out of class. As you passed Taehyung with Nami, Michelle, Hoseok and Gigi at his back he smirked at you and you swore you heard Nami giggling ‘Bet she’s never even held a Chanel bag in her hands. she just wants everybody to be ratchet like people like her’. Smiling to yourself you turned around and flipped them the bird “At least I don’t have to go crying to daddy to buy me a new set of tits, I make my own money and work hard for it. Something you wouldn’t know a thing about, and THAT is what I find sad about your entailed fake ass”. your voice carrying through the hall as you turned back around and made your way back to your dorm. ——————————————— “You know what day it is? TACO Tuesday” You exclaimed while taking a shot of Jose Cuervo and stirring your meat to ensure its cooked properly. Your roommate Casey giggled and Layla downed a shot with you while blasting a Pitbull song. After plating your dinner of carne picada tacos topped with all your usual veggies and homemade Salsa you smiled while your friends posted pics to their instas, Captioning “BB y/n made us food”.  “I still can’t believe you told Nami her tits were fake” Casey giggled while shoving a fistful of popcorn into her mouth. “y/n said her tits and her ass were fake” Layla corrected and you smiled at your dorky friends. “She deserved it, nothing I said wasn’t true. You all were sprawled out on the couch pilled high with fluffy blankets watching a random episode of The Nanny and laughing at random jokes Layla said while scrolling through her Insta feed. “OOOOOOh Valeria is getting ice cream with Subin” Casey practically pouted at the post and you sighed knowing your roommates crush on Valeria which did not go unseen by Layla, causing a metaphorical lightbulb to go off in her head. “You know Casey, Valeria is going to be at Jin’s party on Saturday” Casey being held buzzed sat up catching the bait and worried her bottom lip “Is she?” Layla nodded “This could be your chance to get a fistful of all that Latina, metaphorically and not so metaphorically” she crudely added with a wiggle of her eyebrows and you literally face palmed at your best friends words. Instead of being equally gassed out, Casey however downed her coke and stood up triumphantly “It’s time I tell her!” Layla stood up with her screaming a loud ‘yaaaaas queen’ and both pairs of eyes looked towards you sitting their nursing your Sprite. “What?” you questioned and immediately regretted when both girls practically jumped on you, squishing you between their bodies. “I can’t confess without knowing you and Layla are both there” Casey pouted her soft pink colored lips causing you to shake your head. “You do not need me there while you confess to your crush.”  “But what if it goes bad? what if she rejects me, or worse; makes fun of me? What if i need to leave and I’m crying and I have snot everywhere an-“ Before she could continue you sighed and covered her mouth with your right hand. Nodding you stood up and smiled at both girls “Fuck it, Let’s get your Girl!” you knew Casey had liked her for literally an entire year and you knew you’d feel like shit if you weren’t there supporting your friend as she bared her heart. “I’m only doing this for you though, so know that I love you.” ——————————————— While the rest of the week you were dreading the party Saturday knowing Nami, Taehyung and the other were going to be there, it was Thursday night that was the straw that broke the Camels back. You had just finished returning your copy of Ulysses when you passed Nami practically hanging on the redhead talking about her Angel costume for Seokjins party. Rolling your eyes as you passed you stopped as you heard her ask “What are you rolling your eyes about? This is a private conversation” she flipped her hair over her left shoulder and you yet again rolled your eyes. “This is a public hallway, which means anything you say that can be heard by others can in fact get a response be it verbal or physical by someone other than the intended person in the conversation.” You were just about to turn around when she hmmphed “Whatever, mind your own business” turning around you were met with Layla jogging towards you. “Hot Stuff, what are we going to wear to the party? I’m thinking Doja Cat from the ‘Juicy’ MV, omg you should be -“ Before your best friend could continue, Nami stepped towards you with her arms crossed. “And how did someone like you, get an invitation?” punctuating the ‘you’ she pointed at you. “Jin and I are both on the Volleyball team” Layla stated and turned towards you “And he said I can bring whoever I wanted.” “I still don’t know why you hang around people like her” she once again pointed to you with her baby pink manicured index finger. You knew Layla had money and could very well fit in with their group. You sometimes felt like you were her downfall, the anchor to her social climb. But she always reassured you that she hated people like Nami and never understood why out of everyone, she hated you in particular for the passed two years. “Maybe because she’s my BEST friend, whoever gets invited to the party doesn’t involve you Nami. It’s JINS party, not yours.” Layla shook her head and you bit your bottom lip while curling your fists at your sides trying to calm yourself down.”Maybe she should be Donkey from Shrek, or maybe an edgy emo kid from 2010 with her ugly tattoos” Nami smirked and you heard Taehyung ‘who was scrolling on his phone let out a light laugh, his deep baritone further fueling Nami’s ego. “Have you ever even been to a party? like have you ever even left you dorm for something other than classes and your jobs” she sneered at the words jobs. “You should just reconsider coming, people like YOU don’t belong. People like YOU really should know your place” Your jaw visibly ticked “Seems like you have an obsession with anything my best friend does, is this like you having a big lesbian crush on her?” Layla said while placing a hand on your shoulder and doing her best Janice from Mean Girls impression. Before Nami could say anything back Taehyung nodded out a “Guess we will see you there then, bye Layla, bye y/n” turning to leave. Nami rolled her eyes and checked her phone “Not like it’ll matter what you wear, wait, OMG you should soo wear a ghost costume, it would suit you. Get it? cause you’ll be invisible and you don’t belong” then turned around, her yellow heels clacking against the tile as she following Taehyung down the hall cackling. “I still don’t know why she’s always hated you of all people? like it’s been two years of the same thing with her. I honestly don’t know how you haven’t hit her. I’ve seen you fight” She smiled and grabbed your hand, holding it while you all made your way down the hall, which made you smile and let out a small giggle at her comment about you fighting. She knew about your childhood and how you practically lived at you neighbors boxing gym to let off steam as a stress reliever. You had agreed to find a suitable costume as rage filled you from Navi’s moments and Taehyung’s lack of interest in the matter. (not that you would’ve expected much from him)

As you scanned the rows of costumes hung on the wall neatly you waited by the changing room while Layla and Casey tried on their costumes. “I think i’ll just go with this one” Casey smiled softly while twirling in her peter pan costume, her blond bob swishing lightly. “It’s so cute!” you hugged her and turned to see Layla emerging with a shake of her head “This isn’t giving me enough Doja Vibes”. You let out a hmm and pulled the pink/red mid length wig from your left and threw her a pair of red tights telling her to go put those on while you scoured the items on the racks.  Layla finally emerged from the dressing room after you finished giving her the scattered pieces you had found. Clutching the green watermelon rind skirt, she twirled around in the same manor Casey did earlier and shook her pinky/red bandeau covered chest at you. After tightening the green suspenders that were connected to the skirt she smirked “Now it’s your turn Babe, and Casey and i are paying” before you could interrupt her she continues “not buts! You agreed to find a costume” Shaking your head you said a chorus of “No’s” vehemently at every option she held in front of you. “Y/n you need something to accentuate how hot you are! make her eat her words” you huffed and shook your head “Naughty Nerd is not the way to go Nami” Hanging the customer back on the rack she mumbled a “she said nerd so i figured hot nerd would be well, hot”. You grabbed a simple Witch costume that consisted of a mid length purple dress and a black hat with matching stockings, something low key but still a costume. Before you could go pay for it Layla grabbed your hand and stopped you. “No, y/n that isn’t enough, plays were paying” she pointed to herself and Casey who nodded.  “Layla I don’t want to draw anymore attention to myself, I don’t need to look “hot” cause I’m not. I’m just a regular person who isn’t enough for these people. I’ll never be or do enough” You look down at your right arm and traced the intricate patterns of your black and white peonies and hibiscus that lined your inner arm. Your friends had never seemed you look so vulnerable, and something in Layla snapped.  “She called you invisible and said you weren’t enough but guess what? She knows all about you makes sure you’re always uncomfortable around them. Which means she sees you as a threat”. you bit your bottom lip at her words “She has called you ugly, ratchet ‘which who says that anymore, poor, insignificant and she made fun of you working your ass off to pay your tuition because your deadbeat parents can’t do shit for you. You’re the smartest person in class, you’ve got street smarts and fuck man, you can literally kick a grown mans ass. Remember when those guys were grabbing Casey at the club and you stood up for her and literally fought two of them and won? Little miss prissy bitch couldn’t stand a 5 secs with that y/n. I know you don’t bother with fighting her cause you’re afraid of her connections and getting kicked out of school but fuck y/n grow some balls”  Snapping your head in her direction you walking up to her standing in her face and exclaimed “Firstly Taehyung is the smartest in my Econ class. Secondly, don’t you think I’m already aware of what she says about me? don’t you think i want to punch that stupid smile off her face full of fillers? You wan’t me to grow some balls? FUCKING FINE, but I’m not wearing a “sexy nerd costume.” Smirking and trailing your fingers along a row of costumes  you looked at your friends. “I’ll show her just how hot I can be”  Layla smirked at you “That’s my girl, so what do you have in mind then” You slid your fingers along what felt like vinyl. Cocking your right eyebrow up you gripped the material. “What’s hotter than the Devil?” ——————————————— Standing in front of your mirror in your bedroom you were already regretting your choice in outfits for tonight. As you stared at yourself you reminded yourself why you were doing this. You were going to prove a point and that was all that mattered. you were going to prove you weren’t any of the negative things Nami said about you. Running your hands down the scrappy vinyl like material that was covering your chest and part of your upper body. Your hands stopped above your navel where the top stopped and you cocked your hip to the side, descending your hands further down your bare skin to the top of the matching vinyl like skin tight pants that resembled shiny black liquid covering your skin leaving little to the imagination. You plopped yourself in front of your desk to the makeshift vanity that was full of makeup products for the nights preparations. Curling the ends of your hair you laughed as Layla pranced around shimmying to Nasty by Brooke Candy. “Don’t trust that hoe he N A S T Y” you all yelled the lyrics.  Finishing your Deep Burgundy and black smokey eye, you applied a sharp winged eyeliner and smoked out the lower lash line. Applying small round black jewels under your eyes you finished the look with a deep burgundy matte lipstick, fluffy lashes and a soft pink toned blinding highlighter. “We have like 5 minutes, get your asses in gear” Layla announced as you were tying your simple black leather choker around your neck. After zipping up your over the knee 5 inch stiletto vinyl black boots, you placed your black horned headband on your head securing the little clips in your hair and primped the strands around your face to frame sexily.  The ride there was filled with bopping to music and Layla yelling that you were a bad bitch out of the windows for all of the campus to hear which caused you to yell as the Uber driver. Taking a deep breath, you exited the car and holding Layla and Caseys hands, you walked the short distance of the walkway to Seokjin’s Lavish off campus Townhome. The smell of weed and alcohol mixed with the sound of loud bass thumping greeted you as Layla pushed open the door. Walking through a sea of bodies you felt several pairs of eyes on you and you had to remind yourself it was fine. Settling yourselves in the kitchen, you started to make you all some drinks while Casey looked out for Valeria and Layla handed you cups and bottles. You decided simple Margaritas on the rocks were safe for the night and handed them to your friends. A tall and beautiful man you knew as Seokjin himself walked in and greeted you all, making sure to give Layla a hug to which you noticed her little blush creeping down her neck.  “I’m glad you all could make it! Layla are you Doja Cat? omg Casey you’re Peter Pan! y/n are you the devil? oooooh are those Margs I see?” SeokJin asked which you nodded and asked if he wanted one as well. “Yes please! I suck at making drinks, oh and please just call me Jin” Smiling you stirred the mixture into a clear cup and handed it to him earning a dazzling smile. As he took a sip, Jin pressed his right hand to his chest over his heart “You NEED to come to all of my parties and make me drinks. This is so delicious” As he mimicked the chefs kiss signal you laughed and Layla beamed a smile at him. “Y/n works as a bartender part time at Nely’s next to campus” You nodded and sipped you drink while surveying the beautiful white marble kitchen and chrome accents. “You have a beautiful Home Jin” you smiled to him which made him softly pat you on the back “Thank you! I take pride in my kitchen. It’s where I blow off steam from Volleyball practice” Layla shook her head “You need to blow off steam? you practically don’t even sweat while we run plays” to which Jin scoffed “We all need to blow off steam Layla” You and Casey watched as both people seemed really comfortable with being around each other. You noticed Layla blush and Jin smile every time their eyes met. “Oh you’re here” said a shrill voice you knew none other than Nami herself, dressed in a fluffy white see thru robe, white satin dress that barely covered her butt, knee high white vinyl go-go boots, white lace stockings and sitting atop her head a thin gold halo attached to a headband. Next to you Layla smiled and placed her hand on her hip “Yeah, we said we would be here so here we are” you heard the brattiness in her voice and giggled when you notice Jin staring at her hips. “Ew, don’t stay too long” Nami said while walking out. Jin shook his head which prompted Layla to ask why he had invited Nami. “Well our families are friends and my roommates are friends with her” You cocked an eyebrow” You have roommates?” Before Jin could answer you heard a deep baritone laugh getting closer, turning your head to the side you saw Taehyung accompanied by Hoseok walking into the safe haven of the kitchen. “Tae, Hoseok, come meet Layla and her friends Casey and y/n!” Jin smiled “These are my roommates” As the men stepped closer you tried your best to cover the shocked look on your face. “HEY we have two devils!” Hoseok yelled out and smirked.  Taehyungs hair was parted down the middle and some of his fringe was swept up into two red ‘horns’ he donned black skin tight vinyl pants, red shiny shoes that looked a lot like Gucci Mules, a sequined Blazer with only one button down right above his navel that accentuated his chest as he decided to forgo a shirt and a thing black choker similar to yours but tied in a small bow sitting in the hollow of his throat. Feeling his eyes roaming over your body and landing on you horns you busied yourself by chugging your drink and earned a holler from Hoseok. “Hey y/n can party!”  Before anything else could be said, Casey spotted Valeria who was waving at you all to join her in the living room. Throwing your cup in the trash you followed Casey out of the now suffocating kitchen and tried to hide your expression as your eyes met the Red Devil while you slid passed him.  “Hey girls!” Valeria smiled and hugged you both causing Casey to blush. Layla had stayed in the kitchen talking to Jin which made you smirk knowingly. “This is Subin” the man next to her looked up from his phone and sent a side your way, you noticed his costume as a werewolf from the looks of his tattered ripped shirt and what looked like a gnarly bite mark on his collarbone.  “Hi I’m y/n and this is Casey” Casey narrowed her eyes at the man and how close he was standing to Valeria mumbling out a ‘I know who Subin is’. As you four talked you noticed Valeria standing closer and closer to Casey while laughing at some inside joke they shared. Before you knew it Valeria had swung an arm around your friend and they shared a soft smile. You really hoped all went well for Casey, if not, you might have to kick some ass. While you were thinking of the cuteness overload that Casey and Valeria together could be you heard a shuffle from your right “you look nice when you smile” Subin smiled at you and you felt the pink tint forming on your cheeks. As Casey pulled Valeria with her outside for some “fresh air” which you knew as go time. You decided to get straight to it and ask Subin himself “Are you and Valeria a thing?” choking on his drink he coughed out a loud ‘no no no no’ and you cocked an eyebrow. “Val and I are just friends, plus she’s not really into someone like me like that?.” “Someone like you?” Nodding Subin smiled knowingly and looked towards the door both girls had just slipped through. “As in she like boobs, your friends boobs to be exact.” Your eyes widened “Wait no! not her boobs, she liked your friend in general i was just saying boobs to accentuate how Val wouldn’t like me anatomically.” You giggled at how flushed he had gotten and he smiled along with you. You hadn’t noticed a pair of eyes staring as you talking to the man dressed as a werewolf. Hoseok noticed the look in his friends eyes, it was the same one Taehyung had gotten anytime you rolled your eyes at him, ignored his presence or had gotten in a heated debate. He had been sporting that look every time he looked at you for a little over two years now. Since your first year of college when you had shared a Psych class and battled for top spot in class. He knew his friend had taken an interest in you and it never dissipated.  Taehyung sipped his beer and kept his eyes glued to your face while you smiled and laughed at something the man next to you had said. Hoseok was tired of nothing coming from this and slammed his beer down hopping onto the coffee table earning a ‘that wasn’t cheap get down!’ from Jin “It’s beer pong time!” Hopping off the table he stood in front of you in all of his Napoleon Dynamite Glory. “Y/n come play beer pong” he smiled at you and you could help but notice how beautiful Hoseoks smile was. Shaking your head “I don’t think i’ll be playing tonight Hoseok but than-“ Nami cackled at you from her band of barbies and interrupted “ Hope, don’t waste your time with her she isn’t worth it. Plus she probably can’t even play, she’s never even been to a party before.” Thats what caused you to roll your eyes and place your hand into Hoses outstretched one. “I’ll play”. You and Subin followed Hoseok to the side of the living room where a few beer pong tables were already set up. Layla and Jin had joined you as well, intrigued to see you playing. “Okay teams of two. Usual rules of no leaning over the table, must drink your drink if a ball is sunk, one re-rack per person on each team, and if a trick shot made with one hand behind your back and a foot away from the table is sunk by the opposing team they may make a request that you have to complete. Said request can’t be anything illegal or THAAAT bad. “Can I take a shot instead of drinking a beer? I don’t really do well with beer” you asked honestly which cause Hoseok to holler “Fuck yeah!”  Before you could pick a teammate Hoseok smiled and pulled Taehyung over “We have to have the two Devil’s playing” You shrugged and asked Subin if he would be your partner to which he smiled an ‘of course’ which earned a cock of an eyebrow from Taehyung which Hoseok noticed and smirked. “I’d be on Tae’s team but I think to make it fair we should have another female” Nami walked over laying her hand on Taehyung’s shoulder and smirked “I’ll play” you rolled your eyes and mumbled an ‘i’ll play’ mimicking her shrill voice which earned a chuckle from Subin. “Ooh an Angel and a Devil on the same team, how heaven and hell” Hoseok smirked and set up the cups handing each team their set of ping pong balls. Layla and Jin brought you a bottle of tequila (your eyebrows shot up when you noticed it was ‘Gran Patron’ and then you remembered these people are well off. You had made the marg’s with a different bottle of Patron which while not cheap wasn’t as expensive as this particular bottle was) and shot glasses to replace the typical drink of beer if a ball is sunk. Beer really didn’t sit well with your stomach, you assumed it was the carbonation.  “Layla you do know this is like a $500 bottle of alcohol right?” Layla smirked and Jin smiled responding “I don’t really drink Tequila unless it’s in a marg and my uncle left this bottle here from his last stay, as far as I’m concerned you can have it.” You opened the bottle letting the smell of Agave fill your senses and re capped it. “Ready?” Hoseok asked to which both teams agreed.  Taehyungs team started to which Nami missed her shot, the next shot was Subins and he sunk it, picking her to chug what looked like some sort of fruity cider. Taehyung was next and he lined up his shot before seemingly sinking it before he looked up “Subin drinks” he said smoothly and Subin drank what was left in his cup. You were up next, carefully lining up your shot you watched as the ball plopped right into the cup and looked at the duo in from of you. “Nami drinks” Nami rolled her eyes “Ughh again??” she exclaimed and you smirked “What? can’t keep up?” you asked to which she grumbled and drank what looked like another cider. Nami sunk her next shot and picked you to drink, as you poured the liquid into your shot glass you smirked right at her while downing the shot like it was water. Unknown to you, a pair of dark eyes watched as you licked your lips while placing the glass down. The game continued with each of the teams missing and sinking shots until you won the game, hugging Subin you both had only had around 3 drinks each and decimated the other team. Taehyung called for another game as in 2/3 wins to win the full game. You had surprisingly agreed but only because Nami wouldn’t shut the fuck up with her little snide comments and you loved the look on her face every time she missed or you sunk her shot.  The second game continued until there were only 4 cups left on your end and 3 on the opposing team. You and Subin hugged each other after your last shot that nailed Nami yet again and she held her stomach calling celebrity shot which basically called Hoseok into the game to replace her. You were 5 shots in and feeling light, not nearly drunk but nicely buzzing as you could hold your liquor well. Stepping in Hoseok smirked “Imma flip things up, If i sink this shot ya’ll gotta do my request” Folding his left arm around his back he took a few steps away from the table and focused on nailing the center shot, and to your surprise he actually did nail it. “Hmm little devil, I request that you take a shot” Your eyebrows shot up as that sounded easy enough. “Oh dear, not a normal shot. I’m talking about a body shot, your partner needs to lay on the table and you have to follow all body shot steps down to the lime in his mouth.” Rolling your eyes you turned to Subin to ask if it was okay with him. Your buzzing partner agreed and insisted after you asked if he was sure. Laying his body down on the table with the crown of his head facing Hoseok and Teahyung. He lifted his shirt up to his chest so that you could sprinkle salt from his navel up to his chest. Filling the shot glass, you placed it above his belly button and gave him the lime wedge to slip between his lips. Taehyung gritted his tech as you climbed onto the white table situating yourself above Subins lap. People who were watching the game from afar gathered closer to watch as you once again asked Subin if it was okay and he smiled a yes. Leaning down you tentatively dragged your tongue from his belly button up to his chest licking up the salt, then dipped back down to his belly button and wrapped your lips around the shot glass leaning up and getting the liquid pour into your mouth and down your throat. You crawled up his body and carefully took the lime from his mouth, making sure to dig into the flesh of the lime and not actually touch his mouth. After all, you just met him and didn’t want him to think you were taking advantage of anything. Throwing the wedge into a discarded cup you hopped off of the table and handed Subin a napkin to wipe the remnants of salt and tequila off of his body.  “Can we get on with the game?” Taehyung grumbled and you rolled your eyes nodding. Subin sunk his next shot and Hoseok took a shot of Tequila instead of chugging a beer. It was now 3 to 2 and Taehyung missed his next shot, too focused on the way you were fanning your hand over the back of your next from the warmth the liquor was giving you. It was your turn and you sunk your next shot causing Taehyung to chug the beer Jin handed to him. Hoseok smiled and once again moved his left arm around his back “Might as well make it interesting, another request for another trick shot” you rolled your eyes and smiled at the brunette as he wagged his eyebrows and closed his eyes. You truly did not think he would sink another trick shot, let along with his eyes closed. But as you watched the ball sink into one of your cups your eyes went wide. You heard hollers and screams hyping up the shot that Hoseok had just made and mentally readied yourself for another body shot. “If you’re thinking I’m going to have you do the same thing, you’re wrong” Your eyebrows furrowed and he smirked “It’s Subins turn to take a body shot” Taehyung let out a deep warning “Hoseok, don’t” You didn’t understand why he would have a problem with it but you turned around to look at Subin to ask if he was once again okay with such a thing. He nodded and in turn asked if you were okay. Smiling you handed him a shot glass. After you situated yourself the same way Subin had, you saw him falter on where to put the salt since your top stopped right above your navel, and you grabbed the bottle of salt from his hand and placed a trail from your collarbone up your next. You figured it was safer than your cleavage.  Subin handed you the lime wedge and you softly bit into it watching him fill the shot glass and place it above your belly button. Layla looked down at you and smiled as she saw you getting chorus of “Fuck yeah y/n” which had made Nami who was sitting down roll her eyes. Climbing into your body and leaning down, Subin let his tongue drag along your collarbone to your neck slowly before leaning down and wrapping his lips around the shot glass in the same way you had done to him and leaned up to gulp it down. Leaning down once again he was about to take the lime wedge from your mouth when a hand n his shoulder stopped him. Before you could ask what was going on you saw a strand of red and felt a pair of lips on yours pulling the lime away.  Taehyung had had enough, he was tired of seeing you with Subin and even more tired of the games Hoseok was playing. When he watched Subin lean down to your mouth he couldn’t take it anymore and his body reacted on it’s own. Doing what it had been wanting to do for years.  You watched as Taehyung spit out the lime wedge a leaned back down to capture your lips in his in an upside down kiss. A chorus of oohs and oh shits followed which caused you to push him off and jump off of the table. You shook your head at him and wrapped your arms around your body “What the fuck Taehyung?” you asked but before anybody could answer you, you asked Jin where the bathroom was to which he pointed out and you ran there hearing a “wait” being yelled but you didn’t care you needed to get out of there. You were being watched by everybody and that accompanied with the kiss from someone you thought you hated and assumed he hated you as well, well that was too much. Walking into the first floor bathroom you slammed the door and made your way to the sink. You looked at yourself in the mirror then looked down, bracing your hands on either side of the sink trying to calm yourself down.  You could hear the bass thumping, causing the walls to lightly vibrate. There was a loud knock on the door followed by a series of “y/n please please open the door.” Letting out a deep breath you ran your index finger along your lash line, wiping any excess makeup that had smudged during your beer pong game. Stepping towards the door you swung it open only to be greeted with your best friend flinging herself on your short frame despite the high heeled boots you donned. “Hi, I love you, and before you say it. I know you want to go home but please don’t let those people get to you. So what if Tae kissed you? Don’t even acknowledge that ass wipe, and omg you should’ve seen Navi’s face when he kissed you. She legit looked like she was going to blow up like some sort of doll filled with helium!” Layla placed her hands on either side of you, softly gripping your shoulders, her deep brown eyes staring into yours softly. “Hey, talk to me? If you really do want to go home, i’ll go with you. But I really think you shouldn’t let anything that just happened get you down. Let’s just go back to the living room and dance all these feelings away! You’ve got me, Jin, Subin and Casey and Val ‘not that i know where they are.” While she rambled on you took in your surroundings, noting the pristine glass shower situated in the corner followed by the chrome towel rack that supported plush light grey towels. The porcelain toilet stood across from it, tucked into a corner of the light grey walls that matched the towels. As she finished her speech you already knew what you had to do, you weren’t going to let this get you down. You were so fucking tired of letting people get to you, you had no control over your life growing up but you sure as hell had control over your current self. You had amazing friends, were incredibly intelligent, worked your ass off at both of your jobs and were happy with the way you looked. Quirking up the left corner of your mouth you leaned in and planted a big smooch on your besties left cheek. “Layla, you’re right” Surprise crossed your best friends face, followed by a knowing smirk. “That’s my best bitch! Let’s get our asses down there and show them what a bad bitch you are, not that you haven’t already. I mean, dude you totes slammed like 6 shots no problem and you look HOT AS HELL.”  Giggling you took her arm into yours and let her take you down the hallway into the crowded living area. The LED lights lit a soft purple hue that bounced off of the cream colored walls, further creating that fantasy look that enticed party goers to let all their inhibitions go. You noticed someone had moved the coffee table to a far corner closer to the beer pong tables, which had expanded the makeshift dance floor. The DJ was bopping his head to the current track he was mixing and the sea of bodies moving themselves to the beat was massive. You clutched Layla’s hand in yours as she pushed her way through the dancers and you all finally settled closer to one of the couches that had been pushed to a corner opposite of the tables where Jin, Subin and Hoseok had been waiting for you two. Jin placed a hand on your shoulder as if you check if you were alright and you smiled while nodding. “I’m so so sorry y/n, are you okay?” Subin asked and searched your face for an answer. Smiling at the man who had been your partner in crime for the passed hour, you nodded. “It’s all good, no need to be sorry. I do need another drink though. I think that little stint in the bathroom may have sobered be up more than i’m happy about.  Hoseok smiled and shouted a ‘Gotchu’ before he bounded back off to the kitchen mixing up some concoction you knew would be strong. “Theres seems to be a lot more dancing than before” you jutted your chin towards the sea of bodies and Jin laughed. “I think most people are in that drunks haze where dancing is all they can do since they can’t seem to stand straight.” You chucked softly as you knew all too well how dancing enticed drunk people. The brunette thrusted a clear cup into your hands, quirking an eyebrow at him he responded with a chuckle. “It’s just bourbon on the rocks” Testing the liquid in the cup you smiled confirming it was in fact bourbon and nothing gross. You spotted Nami hanging herself on Taehyung in the corner towards the tables, your eyes met as she looked back at you with what looked like rage. Leaning her body upwards she leaned in towards his right ear and appeared to be whispering something to which he shook his head while staring into his glass. This seemed to upset her, huffing she once again leaned back up and attached you pink gloss covered lip to his neck. For some reason this had annoyed you to no end. For years Nami had been al over the tall man, only to be semi rejected with her advances which had brought you an odd sense of joy and seeing her lips on his neck as he just stood there caused you to rip your gaze away fro the pair and bring your cup up to your still burgundy tinted lips as the lipstick had faded away and left you with a just bitten look. Leaning you head back you downed the contents of the glass and slammed it down on the nearby end table that was situated by the couch. “Let’s dance?” you handed Jin your purse pulling Layla to the dance floor with you, not needing an answer to your question. As you both pushed through to the middle of the grinding crowd you best friend leaned in to your ear letting you know she’d be right back. Before you could ask what she was doing you saw her watermelon headband bounding up to the DJ who nodded when she leaned in close to him. As the first notes of the beat started you couldn’t help the smirk that planted itself on your lips. You giggled as Layla shimmied her way towards you and the first lines of the song began. Letting your body sway to the music, Layla laid her hands on your hips. “That’s my best friend, she a real bad bitch. Got her own money.” You both sang as you moved your hips in her hands.  Placing both of your hands on her shoulders you turned her around and pulled her back close to your chest. Jin had been staring at your friend’s hips swaying along with yours and you decided you wanted to put on a show for him. Running your hands up her tight covered thighs up to her waist she leaned forward and gave her ass a little twerk causing you to chuckle. Turning her body around she gripped your hand in hers and spun you around, you made sure to wiggle your hips as you spun. “She been down since the jellies and the bow-bows” you shimmied your hips and saw Casey and Val bounding their way towards you two. As they got closer you noticed Caseys Peter Pan hat had gone missing and Vals pink lipstick was smudged, both girls walking hand in hand. Throwing Casey a knowing smirk she shrugged lightly and Layla wrapped her arms around both girls, creating a circle. “Where have you BEEN?” Layla yelled over the music at the two but shook her head after taking in their appearances “Nevermind I don’t want to know, wait, or do I?” wiggling her eyebrows she smoothed down Caseys wild blonde bob. Val seemed to enjoy the blush that had formed on Caseys cheek and she leaned close to place a kiss on either cheek, further fueling the crimson on her cheeks. As the intro to Bad Bitch by Bebe Rexha came into play you all raised your hands up into the air and swayed to the beat. Hoseok came into view, thrusting a shot into each of your friends hands and you all posed for his snapchat video while downing the shots of what tasted like whiskey. “Gross, I don’t know how you like liquor” Casey said, her cute face scrunching up into a sour expression and you giggled.  Leaning down you touched your toes and twerked your ass to the beat earning a “fuck it up” from Layla and Val. As you ground your hips back into your best friend you looked up catching Taehyungs burning gaze on your flushed face. Cocking an eyebrow up at him you turned around in Layla’s hold swaying your hips. “Ugh, prissy bitch incoming” Layla whispered into your ear and you followed her eyes to Nami who pulled Michelle and a bored looking Taehyung onto the dance floor. Your eyes followed Navi’s movements as they slid up and down the devils chest and Michelle settled her hands on his shoulders behind him. Your jaw tensed as Nami’s hands trailed up to his neck. Meeting his dark gaze you narrowed your eyes slightly and shook your head, turning around and grabbing Hoseoks hands pulling him closer to you. The LED lights turned a deep red hue as the opening to Streets - Silhouette remix started and Val exclaimed “Let me put this on insta, y/n your horns loom so good in this light!” Posing with your back towards Hoseoks with your head leaning onto his shoulder, the latter gripped your hips and leaned his face into your neck while Val took the picture.  As the tune changed and the beat dropped with it’s intoxicatingly slow beat you swayed your hips against Hoseoks, bending your knees and slowly sliding up and down his body. Trailing his fingers up your sides he grilled your hips and turned you around to face him. You heard Layla lean into Casey saying something along the lines of ‘oh shit’. ‘I found it hard to find someone like you’ you slid your body down the Brunettes, never leaving his gaze ‘send your location come thru’. Leaning back up you rolled your head around and he wrapped a hand into your hair, his other gripping your right hip tighter. your hands settled themself on his shoulders and you leaned towards his left, your eyes catching onto Taehyungs dark gaze, his eyes never leaving yours as Hoseok ground his hips into yours. Even as Nami wiggled her hips in front of his and trailed her hands under his blazer, his arms stayed at his sides, never touching the Angel nor the Bunny who still danced her body against his back. Hoseok knew his friend was watching and he couldn’t help but smirk, gripping your hair tighter he moved your face towards him and pulled you in until you were a few centimeters from his lips as he moved your hips along with his. ‘We belong and I can’t be without you’ Doja’s voice crooned through the speakers as Hoseok leaned in closer to your lips over the hazey cloud of smoke and tightly packed bodies. You internally debated wether or not you truly wanted him to close that gap and land his lips on yours, but the only thing you could think of was the gaze of a certain someone on yours.  Before you fully decided on if you wanted the man in front of you to kiss you, your body was pulled away from his. A strong grip was formed around your wrist and all you registered was Layla and Casey wide eyes before you were being pulled away from the dancing bodies and up the stairs. You barely registered the click of a door being opened followed by your back hitting the hard wood. “What the hell were you doing?” Taehyung rasped out staring deeply into your eyes with a mixture of what looked like want and fury. You placed your hands on his chest pushing him back slightly and jutted your chin upwards. “Excuse me? I was dancing with my friends and Hoseok, not that that’s any of you business” Taking a step towards him. “What the hell do YOU think you’re doing? dragging me up to this room and thinking you can manhandle me.” Receiving no answer you shook your head and were prepared to turn around and walk right back out of that door. “You drive me fucking insane. Seeing that Subin guys hands all over you and then you dancing like that with my best friend.” You felt yourself being pressed against the door once again with his large hands on either side of your head, his rings glinting against the soft light filtering in through the open curtains. Cocking your eyebrow up at him you stood your ground. “What? are you Jealous?” you snorted out. “Yeah, yeah I fucking am” At his surprising answer you looked up seeing nothing but want in his deep eyes with a glint of something else you couldn’t quite place. “You’re fucking insane. Don’t play with me” you rasped out, your voice hoarse from singing and dancing earlier. “I’m not playing” was all you heard before your head knocked back against the wooden frame of the door followed by a pair of plush lips crushing yours with a ferocity you suddenly craved. He tasted like cinnamon and liquor and you loved it. Something inside you both seemed to snap in that moment and you trailed one of your hands up, curling your fingers into his soft hair and tugging on the makeshift horns it was styled into. Your other hand settled itself onto his warm chest fingering the labels of his blazer. Taehyung growled out at you reciprocated the kiss and trailed his right hand down the door, settling on your hip and pulling you impossibly closer to his body. Feeling teeth nibbling at your lower lip you gasped out and he took the chance to slide his tongue into your mouth, your tongues immediately fighting for dominance. Tugging his hair harder you felt his hand that had been on your hip slide lower until it was gripping a handful of your ass cheek, followed by a grunt. You could still hear the music that was thumping downstairs but it was slowly being drowned out by the man in front of you. The plush pair of lips that was against yours slowly trailed down to your jaw, nipping at the flesh softly until they reached your neck. Nuzzling his face against your warm flesh as he littered the area with whisper soft kisses. Slipping your hand under his blazer you trailed your nails lightly along his skin earning a low hiss from his deep voice. Smirking, you dug you nails harder “You’re playing with fire babygirl” Taehyung gripped both of your hands into one of his large palms and pressed them against the door frame grinding his hips into yours. Feeling his length against your covered core you couldn’t help the soft whine that escaped your lips. Taehyung trailed his lips back to your neck and sucked on your pulse point causing you to arch your back. “Y/n i really don’t want to stop, but I need to know that you want this too” the man in front of you pulled back slightly while he waited for a response. Letting out a small ‘yes’ he leaned back down capturing you in another searing kiss. Flexing your wrists in an outwards circular motion you freed yourself from his grip and took a step forward placing your hands against his chest and effectively spinning him around so his back hit the door.  Despite the height different even with your heels you kept your palms flat on his chest with your strength, keeping him against the door. Arching a dark brow up at you Taehyung smirked. “Not going to lie, that was pretty hot” you felt him grumble against your mouth as it attached itself to his tan neck. Sucking a few bruises against his flesh you felt his need growing against your stomach and you couldn’t help your involuntary clench of your thighs. His smell was intoxicating, a mixture of fresh linen, cinnamon and musk. You felt his hands trail up the backs of your thighs and grind the flesh under your ass, signaling you to wrap your legs around his waist. Leaving one more bite against his neck you complied and jumped up latching your legs around his sturdy hips. Walking you both backwards, Taehyung leaned you downwards until your back was hitting the large bed tucked against the wall. Arching your back towards him you pulled him onto your body by his shoulder and moaned into his mouth as he captured your lips in his. Biting down on your lower lip hard, Taehyung ground his hips down against yours.  While his mouth felt incredible against yours you knew you wanted, no, needed more.“Need more” you whispered out causing his to chuckle against your lips and lean his body up. Smirking down at you he cocked his head to the side and trailed his index finger up your torso and chest. “Sorry love, I couldn’t hear you. What was that?” Rolling your eyes you reached up tugging his hair into your grip. “I said, I.Need.More” you said though gritted teeth at the knowing look in his eyes. “Why didn’t you say so earlier?” before you could retort you felt his mouth latch itself on your collarbone and his hands trailing down your legs, pulling the zippers to your boots down before tossing them on the floor somewhere. Trailing his hands behind your back he began trying to undo your top. “While these straps are hot, they aren’t fucking functional for shit. How the hell do I take this off?” Taehyung practically growled out causing a chuckle to leave your lips. Leaning up slightly you helped him unhook the main portion of the top and pull the strappy harness over your neck. Tossing the item he had been fumbling with to the side he couldn’t stop admiring your breasts covered only by your black lace bra.  You shivered as he trailed his hands up your chest, his cold rings causing your nipples to perk up and a gasp to leave your mouth. Leaning his face down, Taehyung started trailing soft kisses along your chest downwards to your torso and back up. His hands were once again at your back, this time working fast successfully unhooking your bra. Looking into your eyes he hooked his fingers under the straps on your shoulder and slowly pulled down releasing your breasts from their confinement. Biting down on his lip he started at your perky nipples and full breasts. He had always loved your curves and didn’t ever think he’d get to see them this way. You felt his soft lips wrap around one of your nipples and gasped as his tongue lightly flicked against the hard pebble. Your hand in his hair pulled him closer to your chest and he smirked. He pinched your other nipple between his fingers which earned a low moan. His mouth being soft on one of your nipples and his fingers being rough on your other one caused an intoxicating juxtaposition and you couldn’t help the little whines that left your throat. Fiddling with your button and zipper, Taehyung successfully started to pull your pants down, leaning up and leaving your nipple with a loud pop of his mouth. Tugging to pull your pants off of your legs he hissed when he saw your core only covered by your thin lace panties. You heard your pants hit the floor in a loud thump and bit your lip in nervousness as you realized just how exposed you were in front of this infuriatingly beautiful man. “You’re fucking beautiful” He rasped out, trailing his eyes up your body and landing on your face. Before he could hike your legs open and upwards you spoke up “You have way too many articles of clothing on” Smirking he complied with your request and popped the single button holding his blazer together, sliding it down his shoulders and throwing it in a heap on the floor. You heard his shoes being kicked off as well before he leaned back down to resume his earlier ministrations. His large hands slid down the insides of your thighs and pulled them open to reveal your soaked panty covered core. You swore you head him let out a low whine but before you could comment on it you felt a warm pair of lips latch onto your clit through the fabric. Arching your back off of the bed you gripped his shoulder in your hand. Taehyung rubbed his index and middle finger along your slit and hooked themselves around the fabric pulling it to the side and exposing yourself to the cool air and his waiting mouth. Laying his left palm flat against your lower tummy he leaned in giving you a soft tentative lick to your slit. Biting your lip between your teeth you moaned out when he latched his mouth around your clit and sucked harshly. “F..Fuck” Hearing your moan he sucked against and gripped the flesh of your thigh with his other hand keeping your legs open. Alternating between sucking and flicking his tongue against your sensitive nub he loved the way you tasted and couldn’t get enough of it. If it was up to him he would do this all day every day.  You ground your hips up into his mouth causing him to smirk against your cunt. “Needy” he growled out and trailed his fingers that had been on your thigh down to your slit, running the tip of his middle finger around your opening before sliding itself in to the knuckle. You brought your right fist to your mouth and bit down to keep yourself from moaning out. Slowly pumping his finger in and out, he watched as your finger disappeared into your wet heat taking him in so good. “Fuck you’re wet” Looking up into your eyes he saw you biting down onto your fist and stopped his ministrations “ If you want more I need to hear you babygirl” Muffling a ‘please’ you released your fist from your mouth and wove it into his hair. Pleased with your sounds he continued sliding his finger in and out of you, adding his index finger into your heat hissing at how tight you were. “Shit you’re tight, gotta make sure you’re nice and ready for my big cock babygirl” Arching your back, you felt his press against your inner walls and curl his fingers causing you to dig your fingernails into his shoulder and tug his hair harder with your other hand. Latching his mouth back onto your clit he lightly hummed which sent vibrations through your body. Whining with need you continued grinding your hips up onto his face and rolled your eyes closed. Taehyung looked up at you watching your fucked out expression and almost choked when he heard you whining his name. Working his tongue against your click he started to harshly pump his fingers into you before slowing down and inching his middle finger into your heat. You felt your cunt burning at the stretch but the look in his eyes caused another gush of arousal to seep out and coat his fingers further. “Jesus..fuck you’re so hot and you taste so fucking delicious” As he slowly pumped his fingers in and out you felt your stomach clenching, that familiar feeling on your realize building with each flick of his tongue against your clit. “Tae.. Tae i’m going to cum if you keep doing that.” Sucking harshly he curled his fingers and pressed against your g spot “Cum babygirl, let me taste you before I slid my fat cock into your needy cunt” Rolling your eyes back you felt your legs start to shake as you gripped his hair almost painfully between your fingers. Your stomach tightened and you felt yourself clench around his fingers. Your breath becoming shallow as you let out a series of ‘oh fuck yes’ and ‘omg omg’ your hand that had been on his shoulder came up to your chest as your pinched your nipple between your feelings and felt the metaphorical dam of your orgasm approaching.   Taehyung sucked harshly before grazing his teeth lightly against your clit and your eyes shot open feeling your legs convulse and your toes curl. With a final whine you felt yourself cum all over his tongue which he licked up like a starved man. Breathing deeply you felt the sweat drip down your brow for your intense orgasm and when he stood your eyes followed down his torso gleaming with sweat and down to the prominent bulge in his pants. Biting your lip you caught him staring at your cunt that had just cum around his finger and he started to pull your beyond soaked panties down and off of your legs. Looking back up into your eyes he slipped each finger between his plums lips and licked them clean.  Groaning at the action you felt yourself clench. “Think you can take more baby?” He smirked at you and you wrapped your legs around his waist pulling him against you and ground your soaking cunt against his covered length. “You’re getting me all dirty, fuck that’s hot” He growled out and slid his fingers down unbuckling his belt. Popping the button of his pants, he pulled the zipper down with your eyes following every movement. Sliding his pants down his thighs he kicked them off and hooked him thumbs into his black briefs. You couldn’t tell if you were really drooling but once his slid his fried down and his cock sprang free you knew me heard your very audible groan followed by a clench of your thighs. Sliding his hand along his shaft, he pumped his leaking length a few times and reached to the side opening a drawer and seemingly looking for a condom. Gripping his arm you shook your head “I’m on the pill, are you clean?” His eyes widened at the possibility of what you were saying and he nodded “I haven’t had sex in a few months and when I did I wore a condom, I also get checked every month if you want to see the results I have them on my pho-“ You cut him off by leaned up and kissing him. As you layed back down against the pillows you smiled up at him an he swore he felt his heart flutter and his cock pulsate. Hooking his right index finger under your thin leather choker he pulled you up and he ground his uncovered cock against your dripping pussy. “As much as I love these, they have to come off they’re barely hanging on your head. Not knowing what he was talking abut you felt his fingers prodding at your scalp and finally run through your hair with the devil horned headband and clips in his hand. Setting them down on the beside table he leaned back piping his cock and wrapping his fingers around his thick head of his shaft. Leaning down he took your mouth against his and you felt his thick tip push against your slit. Locking your ankles around his back you ran your hands down his shoulder and gripped his back. Your walls pulsated around him as he slid in inch by inch and you threw your head back as your walls accommodated his thick size. When he finally bottomed out in your heat he stilled letting you relax as he filled you to the brim.  Sliding his tongue against your he grunted when you involuntarily clenched around him. “You're so fucking tight, you make me crazy” he growled out and settled his mouth against your neck, nipping and sucking the skin as he slowly pulled out only to ram himself back in. Moaning loudly your grip on his shoulders tightened and you knew you were leaving crescent moons on his luscious tan skin. “Crazy? you seem pretty soft to me. Why don’t you fuck me and show me just how crazy I make you” you teased. After sucking harshly on your neck he sat back up and gripped the undersides of your thighs pulling them apart from his hips. “You’re so bad, want me to ruin you? Open you up with my fat cock?” you nodded and  trailed your tongue along your lower lip preparing yourself for what he was about to do.  Ramming himself up into you again you grated your teeth and looked up into his dark eyes. His rhythm was slow and harsh, pounds into you with each thrust of his hips. Your walls enveloped him and he swore he wasn’t giving you up after this, hell he wasn’t giving you up after that first kiss on that beer pong table. He was going to make sure you knew how he felt and hopefully you felt the same way. If not, he’d respect it but at least he’d know you knew how he felt. Watching your tits bounce with each thrust he heard you mumble out a raspy ‘faster’ and he complied, pushing your thighs farther up against your chest. At this knew angle you swore you felt him in your stomach. “Oh god” you ground out and his eyes flashed even deeper if that was possible “Fuck yeah, moan for me y/n”  Sliding himself in and out of you at a fast pace, you could hear his balls slapping against your ass. The room filled with shallow breathes and curses spewing from either of your mouths.  Taehyung slid his palms under your ass and gripped your cheeks between his large hands, squeezing harshly before pulling you up so you were sitting on his lip with his cock still stuffed inside of you. As he thrusted upwards you met his thrusts by bouncing your hips and wrapping your legs around his waist. His hands held you by your ass, pushing and pulling your body on and off of his cock. Leaning towards him you sucked a bruise onto his neck and wrapped your arms around the back of his neck. Feeling his cock his that sweet spot you shuddered and clenched around him tightly. “Stop doing that before I cum” he gritted out and you pulled back from his neck smirking. “mm maybe that’s what I want” With a sharp thrust upwards into your tight cunt he splayed his right hand agains the bottom of your spine and pulled you as close as you could get. “You’re devilish, I swear. You want me to fill up your little pussy with my cum? is that what you want? to get filled?” his deep baritone voice filled your ears and you clenched impossibly tighter around his shaft. “T..Tae fill me up..I need it!” you moaned out loudly and he pushed your body back down onto the bed, pushing your ankles towards your chest he situated himself on his knees and started ramming into you to the point where your body slid against the bed. Reaching one hand down, he lightly gripped your neck. “Yeah? want me to fill you up? Then cum baby, cum all over my cock.” “Tae..Tae..I’m going t..to cum. Fuck you’re so deep” your eyes fluttered closed as he gripped your throat and you held onto his back. “Cum for me y/n, let me feel you soak my cock as I fill you to the brim” Feeling your body start to convulse you opened your eyes to see his fucked out face, sweat dripping down his cherry colored hair and down his neck. His hand flexing on your neck and his abs flexing with every thrust. His low moan of your name sent you over the edge and you clenched around him. Your thighs closed around his hips and you moaned out his name. Curling your toes your this quivered and your inner walls fluttered around his throbbing shaft. Arching off of the bed and towards him his grip on your neck loosened and he leaned down capturing your hips in his as his hips stilled and you felt his warm cum spitting inside of your waiting heat. Thrusting his cock back in and out slowly he let out a low groan as the remnants of his cum filled you.  Taking deep breath he watched your face as he slowly slipped out of you and trailed his eyes down to watch the clear and white liquid leak out of you. Letting out a deep whine he leaned forward and captured your lips between his. His lips were soft against yours, still passionate but not as fiery as they had been earlier. Pulling back his gaze studied your face. “Tae..I” before you could continue he shook his head. “Wait before you say anything, please let me get this out. I’m sorry for the way things happened tonight but I don’t regret any of it. Iv’e literally liked you since we first argued about the attributes of the human brain during psych. That one time you called me an aloof imbecile I almost pulled you out of class and kissed that pretty look off of your face. I assumed you hated me and it made me mad, instead of being a normal human being and just asking you why you hated me I decided to take it out on you. If you didn’t like me, at least I could gain your attention arguing with you.” “And tonight, seeing you with those other guys..I couldn’t help but think it would’ve been better if it was me. I needed to stop being a pussy and just fucking tell you how i felt.” He shook his head as he spoke. “ What about you and Nami? and the fact that you laughed the other day when she made fun of what I should be for halloween and my tattoos” Scrunching his face he sighed. “First of all Nami is just a friend, well more like a family friend. Iv’e known her since I was young and I guess I was just used to her being there. Nami and i have never done anything and never will. Secondly, I didn’t laugh at whatever she said. to be completely honest I drowner out her voice after she asked how you got an invite. I has laughed at a meme Jin sent me of our other friend Namjoon whos away for a semester in Paris, with a bald cap on looking like a grandpa due to his old school vibe he always has. That being said, i’m sorry I never defended you when she said anything to or about you. I really wanted to but you were always so good at defending yourself and that one time Jose defended you, you had turned around and told him you didn’t ‘need a man’ to defend you. So that combined with me thinking you hated me, I just assumed you’d end up really hated me and wouldn’t give me the time of day when we argued anymore.” Climbing off of your body Taehyung sat down next to you and studied your expression. “I don’t hate you per say, I hated that you always argued with me, I hated that you scored higher than be despite never seeming to study while I worked my ass off, I hated that you came from money, you never had to fight for what you wanted or what you deserved. I hated that you were Nami’s friend and always seemed so aloof, like you really didn’t care about anything. But I didn’t..I don’t hate you as a person” you turned towards him. “Who said I never study? My parents would kill me if I scored sub-par. Hell, the only reason I can live here with Jin is if i keep up my grades and don’t disappoint them. If i didn’t care about anything my ass would be living in on campus housing and having an RA breath down my throat while my parents called me everyday asking if I was completing the study forms they sent over. Yeah I’m well off, but that’s my parents money and they worked hard for it. They put hard work and intelligence above all else.” your eyebrows rose at his confession and you get bad. You had assumed so much about him these passed two years and none of it seemed to be right. “I think that’s why I started to like you so much, you’re so intelligent, you work so hard at everything you do and you carry yourself like such a strong person. You kind of scare me if i’m honest” his deep voice chuckled and you smiled. “You’re beautiful inside and out”  Taehyung said softly brushing his thumbs against your cheeks. You could feel the tenderness in his chest and your heart fluttered. “Maybe I liked you too, maybe that’s why I always waited for you to argue with me. I like how intelligent you are, I like that you always have something to say about whatever point I’m trying to prove.” You said softly and the corner of his mouth lifter slightly “liked? past tense” Rolling your eyes you covered your face and grumbled. “fine, LIKE. As in present tense” Taehyung stepped off of the bed and chuckled “THE y/n likes me? i’m honored. Sure its not cause I just made you cum twice?” throwing your arm off of your eye you watched his figure retreating into another door before flicking a light on. “Shut up Tae!” Chuckling he emerged from what you assumed was an ensuite bathroom with a wet cloth and situated himself between your legs. “I like when you call me Tae” he said and you blushed, feeling the cool cloth wipe gently along your folds. Sliding the cloth along your legs he finished cleaning you up and smiled up at you gently with his every so beautiful boxy smile. Returning to the bathroom to drop off the cloth you heard the water turn on and assumed he was cleaning himself off as well. Letting your gaze look around the room you noticed the bookshelf across from the bed you were currently on. On its shelf sat different picture frames, books and what looked like plushies. On the other side of the same wall sat a dark grey desk complete with a laptop, a mini plant and various knickknacks and a chair with a navy blue hoodie that you noticed to be Taehyungs hanging off of the back of the chair. Next to the bed was a nightstand that had a lamp, an iPhone charging dock and a bottle of water. The door that connected to the rest of the house was on the same wall. Against the wall to the right of the bed was a large dark grey dresser that matched the desk and what you now noticed to be the bed frame. On the dresser sat bottles of cologne, accessories and a picture frame. Next to the dresser was the door Taehyung had disappeared into and another door you assumed to be maybe a closet. Furrowing your brows you realized this was Taehyung’s room and not just another guest room. Up until his confession earlier you assumed he lived in a luxurious off campus house paid for by his parents. While this was a luxurious Townhome it still wasn’t what you had pictured. As Taehyung walked out of the ensuite he opened a drawer and dug through until he found was he was looking for. Sauntering up to the bed he handed you a t-shirt and what had seemed to be your phone that had been tossed on the floor earlier and pulled on a pair of briefs over his legs. Holding the soft cotton material in your fingers you smiled and thanked him before slipping over your smaller frame. Checking your phone you immediately noticed a series of texts from Layla starting from concerned up to a text that had a winky face telling you to ‘get it, I came upstairs to check on you but your moaning let me know you were doing just fine’. Smacking your palm against your face you blushed bright crimson. Taehyung who had looking over your shoulder when you gasped at the text was giggling and you smacked his chest. “Ow, you hit hard” He said while still giggling. “So, would you..uh stay the night and maybe grab breakfast with me in the morning? I mean know that we’ve realized we both don’t hate each other and we kind of lik-“ Pressing your lips to his you felt him smile against your lips before you pulled back. “Yes, now can we sleep?.” Nodding Taehyung pulled you against his chest and brushed a few strands away from your face as your eyes fluttered closed. Running his hand along the flowers that decorated your right arm he smiled to himself before eventually closing his eyes as well. Interesting how Misunderstandings happen, isn’t it?

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Omg this was supposed to just be a drabble from the pic of red haired Tae and inso from a game of beer pong, BUT ALAS this monster was born. this is my first fit so any constructive criticism is appreciated. Any love is beyond appreciated too <3 I have some ideas for other pics but i just want to get my page situated first. Any messages are welcome too <3 i lub talking to people.

-C otherwise known as, Potitties

The coronavirus pandemic is the perfect metaphor for the perils of hyper-connection. We no longer need the help of rats or fleas to spread disease — we can do it ourselves thanks to mass international travel and supply chains. And we are no longer self-sufficient when things go wrong. When a corona vaccine is eventually discovered, we will have to wait our turn in the queue as we no longer have a UK-based manufacturer. Talk of the need for de-globalisation seems suddenly to be everywhere.

The pandemic also illuminates a wider retreat from full-on free trade that has been gaining in support and legitimacy over recent years—everywhere, that is, apart from in the economics profession. Democratic politics and national social contracts are starting to assert themselves against the laws of comparative advantage — which in any case turn out not to be quite as benign as the economics professors claim. This was brought home to me a few days ago when I heard a very senior Tory say that he was, until recently, an orthodox free trader/free marketeer but now regarded himself as an economic nationalist.

He is not alone. World trade fell last year by 0.4%. There has been no multilateral trade agreement since 1993. Donald Trump wants to bring back some of the US supply chain from China. And this is not a Trumpian eccentricity, most of the US political class is behind him on this, acknowledging that allowing China entry to the global market economy in the belief that it would transform politically (and become less mercantilist economically) is a gamble that failed. There has been technological decoupling too, the world will not end up on single global platforms.

The ascent of climate change anxieties up domestic and international agendas is also making life uncomfortable for unfettered free trade, encouraging a bias towards localism, reduced travel and a degree of self-sufficiency. China’s air quality has improved dramatically in the past few weeks as a result of measures to contain the coronavirus. And more generically, Greta is asking whether you really need strawberries in March.

The truth is that the neat theories of free trade and comparative advantage have been oversold. Free trade, as Keynes pointed out, only works if the people displaced from good jobs by imports get equally good jobs elsewhere in the economy. The election of Donald Trump is one kind of proof that this has not been happening.

Hold on, say the free traders, of course there will be downward pressure on wages and job losses in the short run but, in the long run, the additional purchasing power we acquire from cheaper imports means we can buy other goods and services that will create equally good jobs elsewhere in the economy. Moreover, they say, when given the choice between protecting the Mid-West manufacturing plant and enjoying good quality, cheaper stuff in Walmart, people have voted with their wallets for the cheaper stuff.

But they have not been given a proper choice. Of course people would always prefer cheaper goods, but not at any price. If the choice was between slightly more expensive goods and services, and the preservation, or more gradual decline, of a certain agricultural or industrial way of life, they might well support such a deal. Indeed, they do so in the EU through the Common Agricultural Policy.

People are well aware that they are both producers and consumers. The end of production is not just consumption, as Adam Smith asserted, it is also about what sort of life you might have as a producer. This is one of those places where economics reveals its blindspot for culture and human beings in the round.

According to Keynes biographer Robert Skidelsky, most trade doesn’t follow any discernible pattern of comparative advantage, and Cambridge economist Graham Gudgin has shown that, for countries in North America and Western Europe, joining free trade agreements has caused slower — not faster — growth in recent decades. Unlike comparative advantage in natural resources, which is better described as absolute advantage, comparative advantage in manufacturing systems is usually quite marginal.

Much of the comparative advantage of recent decades has been achieved by simply taking advantage of lower labour costs in poorer countries. Apple makes iPhones in China, which does benefit US consumers, and to some extent Chinese workers, but the main beneficiaries are probably Apple executives and shareholders. Bringing some of that production back to the US, even at the cost of slightly higher prices, would not, I suspect, be unpopular.

The theory that free trade engenders a permanent peace has long ago been exposed as an empty dream, which is why national security and the threat of war (and pandemics) continue to provide justification for some degree of national protection. In the 19th century, Britain did completely embrace free trade. It was enormously to our advantage to do so, as the workshop of the world, and we imported most of our food by the end of the 19th century. The result was that we nearly starved in two world wars. After the Second World War, we did not make the same mistake; even with the enormous change in tastes and increase in food imports in recent decades, we still produce more than half of what we eat.

Nobody sensible is arguing for self-sufficiency or anything like it, though it might be a good idea to retain at least some national capacity in certain strategic areas like steel or nuclear power plants or, indeed, vaccine manufacture. And, after all, isn’t the logic of comparative advantage to produce specialist monocultures in a world that values diversity in all things.

But there are some economists and political economists such as Dani Rodrik, Ha-Joon Chang, Barry Eichengreen and Robert Skidelsky who are arguing, persuasively, that we need more democratic caveats to free trade. Rodrik argues that where there is a national consensus about preserving some aspect of an economy or culture, for example French restrictions on Hollywood film imports, these should be allowed and not attract sanctions from international trade regulators.

A UK government that is serious about regional and industrial policy, and shifting more high value economic activity towards the North, is implicitly protectionist. It is not going to promote high-tech export industries in Hartlepool and then allow them to be wiped out by imports. It will protect with either subsidies or tariffs. It is true that free trade theory does allow some such protection under the title ‘infant industry protection’, which is far preferable to senile industry protection, but EU state aid policy is not friendly to either.

The unlikely bedfellows of populism, environmentalism and technology are all pointing in the same direction — the reshoring of some forms of production, a bit more self-sufficiency, more teleconferencing with people in other countries rather than immigration, all in all a retreat from the hyper-globalisation of recent decades.

Free traders will, not unreasonably, point to the costs. It could mean a bit less growth, though neither the populists nor the greens will necessarily object. Global supply chains are, indeed, a force for peace and breaking them up could bring back inflationary pressures. It could also mean that the dramatic fall in poverty in poorer countries will slow or stop. So why not try to mitigate the costs of free trade better? Subsidise the losers more intelligently? Or, the free trade sceptic might reply, why not prevent there being so many losers in the first place?

As Barry Eichengreen says, the problem with the global economy is not a lack of openness, but a sense that “the nation state has fundamentally lost control of its destiny, surrendering to anonymous global forces”. And as Hans Kundnani put it in last week’s Observer: “it is time the UK Government adjusted its rhetoric and stopped its paeans of praise to free trade”. Part of the point of Brexit is to put politics before economics, democratic legitimacy before economic growth.

Of course, we still want lots of trade and sustainable growth but at less cost to other things that people hold dear. A new rhetoric is needed that combines an appropriate level of openness with a sense of national control. An economic nationalism that most liberals can feel comfortable with.

We can tell similar stories pretty much everywhere. People in highly paid professions, like doctors, dentists, and lawyers, get lots of money, and dishwashers and retail clerks don’t, because we structured the markets so that people in these professions can get lots of money, at the same time that we also structure the markets so that dishwashers and retail clerks don’t get lots of money.

There are similar stories to be told about other areas where people get very high pay. The financial sector is an obvious one. We have people who get hugely rich as hedge fund managers or traders at banks who thrive on being able to turn over massive amounts of stock and other financial assets to take advantage of small price differences. A modest financial transactions tax, similar to the sales tax we pay on clothes and appliances, would go a long way towards reducing the big bucks in this sector. Measures that prevented the finance boys from ripping off pension funds would also reduce the big bucks earned in this sector.

In the case of CEOs getting salaries of tens of millions of dollars, even when they screw the shareholders for whom they are supposed to be working, the problem is a corrupt corporate governance structure. And the problem of excessive CEO pay is not just a question of the pay of a small number of CEOs. If the CEO is getting $20 million a year, odds are the chief financial officer and other top execs are getting somewhere close to $10 million and even the next tier is likely drawing paychecks of well over a million a year. We would be in a very different world if the ratio of CEO pay to the pay of ordinary workers was something closer to the 60s and 70s ratios, and CEOs earned $2 million to $3 million a year. That would likely be the story if corporate boards actually acted in the interest of shareholders. (It would be even better if they cared about workers, too.)

This gets me to patents. There is a largely unquestioned fallacy in policy circles that technology has increased the value of skills, especially those in the STEM fields and reduced the value of less-educated workers. This fallacy is used to justify the huge growth in inequality of the last four decades. The basic line is that we may not like it, but it just turns out that Bill Gates’ skills have become hugely more valuable over the last four decades and the skills of manufacturing workers, truck drivers and other people in jobs requiring less education are worth much less.

This is a very simple and obvious lie. The value of STEM skills has increased because as a matter of policy we decided to make them more valuable, first and foremost by having longer and stronger patent and copyright monopolies. As I like to say, if we didn’t give Microsoft patent and copyright monopolies on its software, Bill Gates would still be working for a living. For some reason, people in policy circles, including most progressives, simply don’t like to talk about this obvious truth.

Suppose that we did not see the same upward redistribution over the last four decades so that everyone had shared equally in the gains of productivity growth. In that world the minimum wage would be over $24 an hour today. This means that a person working at the lowest paying jobs would still get almost $50,000 a year if they put in a full 40-hour week, fifty weeks a year. If we imagine that people in the lower paying occupations in the health care get some premium for their skills and the importance of their work, they would be getting over $50,000 a year. A two-earner couple would be getting over $100,000 a year.

Could we afford to pay the lowest workers $100,000 a year? We certainly could if we didn’t pay the people at the top so much. It may not be apparent (especially for people who do policy work for a living), but these high paychecks come out of every one else’s pockets.

This is very clear if we put on our Keynesian-MMT thinking hat for a moment. The limiting factor for government spending is inflation. We have to cut back spending and/or raise taxes if spending is pushing the economy too far and causing excess demand. The consumption spending by doctors getting $400,000 a year, Wall Street types getting $4 million a year, and CEOs getting $40 million a year, increases demand in the same way more government spending increases demand. If these rich and very rich people have less money to spend, they will spend less. (See what you learn by getting a PhD in economics.)

Anyhow, if we structure the market differently, so that those at the top have less, then everyone else can have more. We can ensure that even people at the bottom of the pay ladder can ensure decent secure lives. This is especially the case if we have items like national health care insurance and child care as part of our agenda.

So, getting back to the impact of structural racism, we certainly should do everything possible to eliminate the barriers that deny African Americans an equal chance to get high paying and high prestige jobs in health care and other sectors of the economy. But, recognizing our history, we can’t believe that in ten, twenty, or even fifty years we will have overcome centuries of institutionalized racism.

It is still a big deal if a black kid doesn’t have the same chance in life to work as a doctor or some other high-paying profession as a white kid, but it will matter much less if people working as home health care workers and in other currently low-paying jobs could count on a decent wage, decent health care and other aspects of a secure existence. And, in that world, their kids would have a much better shot at securing a higher paying higher prestige job than they do today.

Hey, maybe retail workers should get a raise during this pandemic.

They're being exposed to hundreds of people daily

A lot of places are cutting hours in response to Corona, which is a good practice to ensure stores can restock and reduce exposure time, but a lot of employees (especially minimum wage) will be losing money they need for bills, which you KNOW are still due.

They're arguably being handed the sudden responsibility of their entire communities to make sure their shelves remain stocked and to interact with these folks to make sure they have what they need

Way more work flow than what the job and usually calls for due to mass panic buying

Way more emotional of a toll due to assholes harassing and yelling at them for supplies they just don't have

They need to be able to afford medical care should an accident happen during these times or they happen to get sick (whether from corona or not) due to exposure from so many people and their money

You know corporate bigwigs are benefitting from this sudden flood of panic buying, so it's only fair

Anyway let's be fair to the unsung heroes during these trying times. At the least, do the following

Be nice and thoughtful towards retail employees. Chances are a stupid Boomer yelled at a cashier for not personally making sure this person had toilet paper or whatever else they wanted.

Seriously do not yell at them wtf is wrong with you assholes. They legally are not allowed to withhold stock for themselves. They literally have cameras everywhere to make sure YOU don't steal and THEY don't steal.

Don't make their jobs harder than it already is

Wash your hands thoroughly before and after you shop. This is also just a courtesy to your fellow neighbors and to yourself.

If you can, don't bring your kids. Even if it's not corona, it is cold, flu, and allergy season, and adults and children alike will be coughing and sneezing. If you can, find someone you trust to look after them while you shop to keep them from spreading germs or from being exposed. Plus, be real, you'll probably save time if you shop without a little helper, and you'll save everyone a headache from crying babies. If you just can't, just make sure they aren't sneezing or coughing on things.

Be patient. Just be patient. Seriously. Be fucking patient. Not everything is a personal attack on you specifically, Karen. This goes for workers and other customers. Don't be an asshole because someone else is looking where you want to (eg, don't go "Well THIS ONE can't make up their mind.") Don't be an asshole to the cashier because the lines are long and management called in 4 cashier's for the 24 cash registers. If you do either of these things, you're being an asshole, end of discussion.

Don't fucking steal. Corporate won't suffer, the minimum wage workers just barely getting by will suffer. Don't fucking steal. If you do, you're an asshole.

Do NOT harass Asian people or anyone else that's being targeted. Pandemics don't mean you get to be racist. Don't harass these people. Just because they happen to look Asian does not mean they carry the virus (let alone are from Asia to begin with). It does not give you permission to vent your pent up aggression. Do not be an asshole, you fucking clods. If you do, you deserve to be punched, end of discussion.

Don't buy more than you need. If you're thinking of self isolating, either buy a reasonable amount, or order online for delivery. Seriously, don't be a dick and buy excess to sell at a higher price. That's evil.

On that note, consider just ordering what you need online. It might take a bit longer to get, but if you think you can handle it, it might be safer and less hassle to do this method. Less lines, less contact and exposure, and you'll likely find what you need without worrying about shelves being empty, since you're buying from a warehouse instead of a store. Plus there's always a chance you can get better deals either by buying cheaper off brand products or by using coupons codes and discount apps.

You may be tempted to hug or shake hands with friends and neighbors you see as customers or employees. Just wave. No contact is necessary, smile and wave. Fist bumps and high fives also work.

Anyway, be kind or get kicked in the behind. Be courteous towards employees and neighbors, don't be a dick, and most importantly:

Don't panic

I know these are scary times, but that doesn't mean we have to make life a horror movie for each other. We can make it if we take care of ourselves and take care of each other. You being mean or aggressive to retail workers won't make your groceries or sanitation items come any quicker.

Oh yeah, and give retail workers a raise.

The Limp of Corrupted Feet

I’m sitting on a wall. There is birdshit right next to me, cigarettes and gum stains all over the ground. A pigeon is at my feet, ignoring me, pecking for food. It’s feet are covered in yellow, twisting tumours, and it pathetically hops on its stumps, flapping its wings for stability, eyes wide looking for something to eat. I have just been told I didn’t get the job.

There is this warped idealism that cities seem to bring, those big cities, those creative cities. Did we all learn too much from movies and books? Was there ever really a chance your Dreams could come true by simply being somewhere different, or was it a big lie, like Cinderella or spiritual contentment? The idea is basic - live in The City, do things in The City, experience The City, love The City, let The City provide for you. A cultural and economic hub so you can live a life beyond anything your small town friends could ever imagine or comprehend. Funny, how most the people I’ve met have expressed distaste or outright white hot hate for this place. But they still live here, they still live here. 

My white shirt is now stained with sweat from sitting in a hot office all day, and from nervousness. I stink of worried energy and adrenaline. “You’ve obviously got talent…” they said. I replied all smiles and confidence and stupid fucking finger guns like some sort of 80’s movie character, moustache and all. I washed this shirt last night, soaking a pasta stain on the front and hoping it would be clean. I woke up and it was creased and damp, I hoped my body heat would unwrinkle the fabric. I can’t afford an iron. “You’ve obviously got talent but…” I was meant to come in for another day, but they made a decision in seven and a half hours and two articles. I’m relieved in a way. I only own one good shirt.

I think my own ego has brought me here, but now I’m older and my head has hardened. If I can’t do something, I hate it. There are many things I can’t do. “You just don’t have enough writing experience.” and I think, ‘I do’, but not your kind of writing. Though maybe I haven’t let my writing be judged before. Maybe I am bad. I want to write an article out of spite. I want to prove to them how wrong they are. I smile and wink and die inside. 

I find out that the job would have paid a touch over minimum wage. I factor in food and transport on the ticking calculator that runs in my head, keeping a check on my bank balance. I would probably be on minimum wage before tax and loan repayments. I have trained for 3 years and worked for 3-maybe 4 years in this industry. “You just don’t have the experience.” I think about the value of my education. I think about The City and how it was meant to make my dreams come true. I think about minimum wage. Rent. Food. Bills. Tax. I think about fighting someone, or killing myself, or buying a plane ticket and fleeing. Instead I scratch my sweat covered nose. 

I have secured myself a new job. It also pays a touch over minimum wage. I am a freelancer. In theory this means I choose my own pay and choose my own hours. I am told that they pay this rate and this rate only. I get emails at strange hours demanding I come in. I am on a zero-hours contract, but by law I am a freelancer. I earn less than my colleagues, and have less security. There are no benefits to what I do. I consider how I will end it when I reach 55 years old and can bear to work no more with no pension and no house. I consider trying to work out a higher rate of pay, but I know there are a million broken souls queueing behind me to take my place and work more for less. Last time I tried to do so I took a pay cut. I fuck up my own finances and my sanity for the sake of a job I’m told I should be lucky to have. I don’t feel lucky. 

As I walk back to my flat, I watch a woman stare at me and smile through my sunglasses. I don’t acknowledge her. She must think that I have my shit together. She doesn’t realise that this shining statuesque version of me is made of cheap marble and wood, that I’m wearing my one good shirt and wondering what it’s like to be evicted or made bankrupt. I wonder how soon I’ll experience it. I wonder how many people here are in the same boat. One has a bag from Whole Foods and steps into a brand new Jaguar. I wonder no more. In my head, I claw around trying to figure out how many days of work I need to do to make rent next month. I start to feel sick so I stop. 

I know I have to go to the Benefits Office and ask for help paying my bills, but I don’t want to. I feel like the provider. My mother once told me that what caused my dad to break down was always feeling like he had to provide. I let that thought stick for a while. What did the early tribes do when one of their hunters became lame or blind or deaf? Did they care for them or let them die in the wilderness? My rent has gone up this year. House prices are falling in my area but my landlord has a mortgage and the agency has commission to make so it goes up anyway. I can’t afford another deposit or letting fees so I let them fuck me. My contract says they won’t allow any tenants who use benefits, so I hope I can get the money put directly into my account and hide my shame. 

I look at my bank statement and feel like crying when I realise my mental calculations were off. I am poorer than I thought. I go into a shop and buy the cheapest beer I can find there, because I feel like shit and want to feel better. I look at the £1 bottles of piss-quality cider and work out how long it’ll be before I start drinking that. I pick up two four-packs of regular beer. There were times in the early days of The City where I would buy craft beers and bottles of wine like there was a shortage approaching, where I would go to bars on my day off and sit supping cold expensive pints. I’m not sure if I genuinely believed and experienced The Dream then, or if the fun has ruined my memories.

I walk and walk and walk and consider dropping everything and moving elsewhere. Maybe somewhere cheaper? Maybe a foreign country? I know I can’t. I owe the Government so much money in back taxes. I was seduced by a startup who hadn’t been corrupted by ideals like profit who actually paid me a fair wage for The City. I used my money to live like a human being. The company went bust. Now I’m poorer than ever. Now I have the burden of my past sitting forever on my back, my punishment for committing the sin of thinking I could breathe easy. I have to be in The City to earn enough to be poor. I am Prometheus, but the eagle will find no more liver.

I realise how cliche my experience is. We’re all dreamers who got hammered down by society again and again. I’m not clever or creative. I’m average. I walk through my front door and the chain is still on. The cheap door frame buckles and spits plaster everywhere. I would be worried about my deposit if I knew the several tea stains and cracked paint hadn’t already cost me over a thousand pounds of it. If I leave here I know I won’t be able to afford securing another place. I want to tear the rest of the wood off the frame and break something. Instead I work out which white lies to tell my landlord’s agency so they come and fix it without blaming me. I try to work out if I care whether they know or not anymore. 

I try to write. “You’re just not good enough.” Maybe they’re right. I’m so full of vinegar and spite and drink, I want to show them they’re wrong. I look at my half finished projects and ideas laying in the gutter. I look at my bank balance. I look at the broken door frame. I look at the dark bags under my eyes. I look at the tea stains. I look at my half empty beer. Maybe they’re right. 

I’m sitting on a wall. There is birdshit right next to me, cigarettes and gum stains all over the ground. A pigeon is at my feet. It’s feet are covered in yellow, twisting tumours. It pecks at a plastic bag filled with breadcrumbs. It’s eyes are wide as it tries and tries to get them. The breadcrumbs are inside the bag, teasing the bird through clear plastic. It can’t get to them. It tries again anyway. 

- M. M. Sheridan (2017)

If I may ask, what do you think of the whole sea watch 3 mess? And indeed of the whole migrant situation in Italy?

Well - I have messy thoughts about that. Mostly I’m angry, disgusted, worried and pretty hopeless about the whole thing.

As a recap for people who haven’t been following this (complicated stuff ahead, so I don’t claim to be right about everything): 

1) In 1990, the EU decided on how to deal with migrants by drafting the Dublin Regulation, which came into effect in 1997. The idea was charmingly simple: people seeking refuge in Europe should ask for asylum in the first European country they got to. Optimists claim it was difficult back then to imagine any complications, since immigration was very low and European countries still had borders and everything else, but in hindsight, you have to wonder why countries like Italy agreed to this at all. You obviously can’t get to Germany or the UK without crossing through Italy or Spain first, so the Dublin Regulation was bound to cause huge problems. The other ridiculous thing is that the Italian government that signed this was headed by Andreotti, a nearly immortal ghoul princeling who’d been in politics since the 1750s and had been implicated in at least two murders.

(He’d also been found guilty of collaboration with the mafia, but was let go on a technical detail.)

2) In 2011, Muammar Gaddafi, ‘Brotherly Leader’ of Libya, was killed. We still don’t know exactly what went down - more on that in a second - but a general problem the West has in the Middle East and Africa is that we tend to support dictatorts, no matter how brutal, because it’s just easier to do business and get our way with one greedy and corrupt person than it is to deal with an entire Parliament, but the risk we overlook, time and time again, is that all-powerful dictators tend to become more and more ambitious and form their own plans, which may or may not align with Western interests. In the case of Gaddafi, Hilary’s emails (I know, I know) seem to indicate the real reason the West - and particularly France, as in former President Nicholas ‘I’m the son of an immigrant but he was the right kind of immigrant’ Sarkozy - suddenly got annoyed with Gaddafi is that Gaddafi was planning to introduce a new banking system in Africa - a thing that would rival the CFA franc. 

(That’s a currency used in fourteen African countries which is basically a leftover from French colonialism - it’s managed directly from the French Treasury, and that gives France more or less full control of those countries’ economies). 

So anyway, NATO got all tough on Libya, Gaddafi was killed, and as a result Libya is now a failed state with - if that’s possible - more human rights violations than before - particularly relevant for your question is a very harsh treatment of black Africans (down to and including literal ‘slave markets’ where people are bought and sold, also torture camps and everything in between). This happens partly because it’s lucrative af, and partly because there’s been bad blood between ethnic Arabs and black Africans for generations.

So, aynway, that’s the general context. What happened next is what we’ve seen for the last few years - an increase in the number of immigrants coming to Europe, therefore an increase of the number of deaths in the Mediterranean, therefore widespread panic leading to 

immoral and unethical deals with people like Erdogan (I say ‘people’, lol)

a sharp rise of the extreme right and 

a general inability to welcome those desperate enough to come here and offer them a decent life.

Most recently, Italy’s far-right Interior Minister decided to close down the harbours to prevent NGOs-operated rescue ships from docking. The Sea-Watch 3, which was carrying 42 migrants, decided to ignore this and go to Lampedusa, in Sicily - the closest and safest harbour. Now its captain has been arrested, but it’s unclear what will happen next.

If you’re asking me what do I make of all this - I don’t know. It’s a mess. 

For instance, there are studies showing that if NGO ships patrol international waters, the crossing gets more dangerous, because people smugglers don’t bother finding good ships - they know they just have to get migrants off the coast of Libya, and someone will pick them up. This means more risk for the immigrants themselves, and more money for the smugglers. But on the other hand, no rescue ships there means no help at all, so if something goes wrong, those people are doomed. The same ‘yes but’ applies to many other issues concerning migration. Like, a lot of migrants coming in (and these are people who were left with nothing, including ID) means more of them disappearing into thin air, because of the badly-organized and overcrowded camps. We know thousands of them end up exploited by criminal gangs - in Italy, a particularly brutal business is managed by the Nigerian mafia, which trafficks thousands of women into prostitution and terrifies them into obedience thanks to ‘black magic’, but there’s also agricultural workers, people forced into drug trafficking, kids who end up homeless and so on. Another major problem is that - other than the Syrians - the immigrants who got to Europe over the last decade are difficult to integrate into the legit labour market because they lack the necessary qualifications. Most of the European is now tertiary-based, which means you need some kind of post-high school diploma to do anything, and research shows about half of those coming here didn’t even finish primary school.

(To be very clear: I’m not saying this is in any way their fault, or something that can’t be fixed. But: it does encourage a battle of the have-nots, as people at the bottom - including chunks of the native population, immigrants from Eastern Europe and more recent immigrants from the rest of the world - compete for those few and miserable options open to them, like run-down housing, meagre welfare checks, and a handful of jobs you don’t need qualifications for.)

On top of that, many migrants would need a lot of support, because they escaped from horrific situations - not only those torture camps in Libya, but everything else you can think of: civil wars, political persecution, brutal rapes, whatever - that’s also something that has a cost no one wants to cover. And finally, since coming to Europe is so dangerous, most immigrants tend to be young men on their own - which is exactly the ‘worst’ group of people in any culture.

(Sorry if that sounds bad, what I mean is - we know that for whatever reason, young men everywhere tend to be more reckless than other social groups, and that increases the chance for risky behaviour - especially when the person is not ‘kept in check’ by a well-structured community. Thus, a young man without family or friends is more likely to make stupid or dangerous choices - for himself or others - than, say, a middle-aged father or a young woman.)  

All of this, as daunting as it is, could be solved - after all, this is not an invasion: it’s numbers we can manage - but probably won’t because:

1) There’s some interest in keeping the situation as it is. More migrants means more political success for right-wing and extreme right parties, not to mention huge profits for a lot of people.

2) Right now, the EU can’t agree on anything because of reasons. 

3) Nobody wants to do the right thing, ie treat Middle Eastern and African countries with a modicum of respect and actually support them and their development instead of propping up whatever strongman is convenient and robbing their citizens of whatever isn’t nailed down.

4) The countries on the EU borders have their own issues and right now it’s very hard to imagine those issues ever going away. Like, under many respects Italy’s basically a failed state that relies on the goodwill of half its citizens to keep trudging forward. It never rooted out clientelism, corruption, or tax evasion - plus, it still hasn’t defeated its own mafias, and despite an exceedingly brave and dedicated bunch of policemen and judges (plus all those ordinary citizens risking their necks every day by saying no and living an honest life), the battle against foreign mafias (like the Albanians, and more recently the Nigerians) is probably a task beyond its means.

So, well - sorry this turned into a novel. I guess what I think is - I admire people like Sea-Watch 3 captain Carola Rackete and everyone else who volunteers and fights for the most vulnerable, and I think the current government is a disgrace, but ultimately immigration is a political problem whose only solution is the usual solution to everything else: more courage, more competence, more transparency; less inequality, less greed, less corruption. More democracy, and a democracy operating without the (overt and covert) influence of powerful lobbies. Less support to dictators, fair wages for workers and fair prices for raw materials - even if that includes higher prices for Western consumers. And, above all, more regulations and less power to corporations and stakeholders.

Very few people actually want to leave their homes, but if we keep forcing them out, then they’ll keep fleeing - with all the consequences that entails.  

Before the Lord of the Universe (pbuh) was given the duty of prophethood, how was religious, moral and social state of humanity and world?

It would be useful to recognize and to know the moral state of the humanity and the world before the Lord of the Universe (pbuh) was given the duty of prophethood. Only then can we understand how the Messenger of Allah saved humanity from a religious, spiritual, intellectual, social and political darkness and aberration in such a short time!

Through the end of Gregorian sixth century…

It was a century in which nightmare of unbelief, heedlessness and immorality haunted humanity intensively and tried to drown it with all its power… There were outstanding countries which were important for the world at that time: Byzantine, Persia, Egypt (al-copt), India, Alexandria, Mesopotamia, China, etc. In these countries:

A) There was not a correct belief system

People of that time were writhing in remorse of unbelief and false beliefs and they almost lost their minds and did not know what they were doing.

They worshipped natural events happening in the universe and things which were the works of the Divine Power. They prostrated before stars, fire, lifeless stones and woods as if they were gods.

Since the souls and hearts were buried in darkness, deprived of belief in One and Only Allah, they would not say “Everything is the work of the Divine Power” and thus they considered the universe meaningless, absurd and pointless. Those poor people lacking belief, knowledge and wit were unable to think, in such wretchedness, to such a degree that they considered the book of the universe which contains thousands of mysteries and wisdom masterless and meaningless although they knew that a single letter, a single word or a book could not come out without a master…

The world, in this pitiful state, needed and was waiting for a prophet to convey people the belief of Oneness, belief in existence and oneness of Allah, and to purify humanity’s hearts and souls off idolatry, unbelief and heedlessness.

B) People were Discriminated and Separated into Classes in All of Those Countries

People were separated into classes such as the rich, the poor, the powerful, the weak, the ordinary, the elite, the slaves and the lords. There was a great disconnection and gap between the rich and the poor, and the public and the government.

There was quite a tension between classes. Because of the cruelty, unfairness and tyranny of high-class people, low-class people were like a powder keg ready to explode at any time. To put an example, let us have a look at the situation in Iran (Persia) of that time:

“Like most of the primitive tribes, Persians were separated from each other totally and were divided into four classes, the first three of which (higher classes) were totally isolated from the fourth one. The first three classes consisted of people from Magi tribe, who were priests called Magupat or Mobed, and judges, warriors and officials. The fourth class consisted of farm workers and craftsmen.”

The so-called class of public consisted of free city people and captives and slaves (serfs) bound to agriculture and the duties of the latter ones were to work on farms and for army without any wages. They could not ever imagine being promoted to “city-people”, who can make use of their wealth and properties freely, from which they have been separated by unsurpassable limits…”

The situation in the East Roman Empire was even more pitiable and cautionary: “The Public was separated into many subsidiary classes. They were as follows:

1) The class named “Curule” which consisted of land owners who were neither accepted into army nor could attempt to do any trade.

2) Tributaries, just like their counterparts in Persia, included people who had no land of their own, who paid tax of population, and were bound to guilds which passed from fathers to sons.

3) Military class.

As an author said on the issue; “Farmers, who planted the land, were nothing but instruments which fed and dressed the royal family.”

An eminent historian of the Middle East, Finlay, described the miserable situation of the East Rome as follows:

“No community whose morals were so deteriorated and no nations who lacked self-control and virtues like the Greeks and the Romans in history had ever been seen as the ones who lived in the period of time between the death of Justinian (528-565) and the birth of Muhammad.”

People in Europe were left in the cruel hands of aristocrats, chevaliers, ecclesiastics, kings and barbarians. They were not any different from lifeless items and dumb animals for those. They were bought and sold anytime. They did not have any right to object. The ones who were sold were considered slaves from then on or if not slaves, they would become servants who had no right or power of disobeying their owners. None of them had the right of disliking their owners or choosing their owners. Their only right was this: In some barbaric countries, a servant, on condition of paying his owner a certain price, could leave and work for another owner. It was a big offer for them.

In all of the other countries outside the Arabian Peninsula, people were separated into classes which treated each other with hatred and enmity.

This miserable world needed a great prophet who would declare that human beings were the most precious of all the beings which Allah created on the earth and that they all descended from the same father and thus, all of them had the same rights to the same extent, and that everyone was born free, owning these rights, and who would change the hatred and enmity among people for love, respect and friendship. The World was urgently in need of that great prophet to come soon.

C) Slavery was an Official Institution in all of These Countries

Human beings are reverend and honorable. However, appreciation of this fact is only possible with true belief.

People of that time whose hearts were deprived of this true belief, of course, were unaware of the honorability of the humankind, of the fact that the humankind was the most reverend species on the earth and they would of course be barbaric enough to sell and buy their fellow beings.

Poor people who were called slaves were sold and bought in auctions in markets just like ordinary goods. Owners were fully authorized to insult and torment their slaves and make them work however they wanted.

The humankind was in desperate need of someone who could give an end to this barbarity and unappreciativeness, of a guide who would not begrudge of anyone his light of mercy, like the sun.

D) Conflict between Sects would not seem to End

In Christian countries, the creed of “tawhid (oneness of God)” which was conveyed and taught by Prophet Jesus was replaced by the perverted belief of “trinity”. Clergymen had invented a whole different religion instead of the religion conveyed and taught by Jesus. In all countries, and especially the East Roman Empire, incredible torment and cruelties were made in the name of religion. Historians put forward the case of Patrician Phocas who poisoned himself in order to escape from being converted into Christianity by force, as an example.

People who converted from Mazdaism, the religion in Persia, to any other religion or who betrayed this religion were sentenced to death mercilessly. Scratching one’s eye out, crucifixion, stoning, starving to death were amongst common kinds of death.

Although China was developed in terms of civilization with Confucius, it was experiencing the most chaotic days of its history and facing the danger of the fall of the country just before the Sun of Bliss (Hazrat Muhammad) emerged. Civil wars were indispensable. People were fighting each other to death because of disagreement between sects.

Abyssinia was suffering from civil wars at the time Islam emerged.

E) Immorality was to be Found Everywhere in Those Countries

People lacking in virtues, morals and fears which are the results of belief in Allah were involved freely in all kind of immoral acts which tread upon honorability and purity of the humankind. Gambling, alcohol and immoral parties were amongst daily routines. Cases of murder, fornication, rape and incursion which never seemed to decrease almost swept the blessed and divine meaning of the humankind away from the earth.

Here is an example:

Moral values were so deteriorated in the Byzantine Empire that the Patriarch of Constantinople himself solemnized the marriage between the Emperor and his own niece.

Women were nothing but items which were bought and sold.

Yes, the end of sixth century A.D. was the century of such barbarism, unbelief, idolatry, ignorance and cruelty. All kinds of anarchy, blasphemy, various perverted belief systems and all kinds of disgrace were ruling the world in this century.

Maybe the world had not witnessed and had not been the place of such perversion, immorality, barbarism and violence since the creation of humankind.

Having no a spiritual guide, the humankind was flowing crushing on stones on its way like an untamed river. And with every crush, it was losing a bit of its heart, soul, consciousness, and honor. All the mortal doors it knocked on hoping for help said that they could not help and closed the door.

The people of the world, who did not know and recognize Allah, and could not find the true aim which He declared through His prophets, almost had the personality of a monster. Like monsters, which are ready to eat someone up any time, they were storming all over the world with the winds of anarchy and enmity, with aggressiveness and cruelty, and shedding blood everywhere.

The humankind was like an orphan. The Universe was mournful. The earth reminded a place of mourning. Everyone was enemy to each other; everything was considered to be meaningless, lifeless, and aimless.

Sorrowful screams of the humanity, deprived of a true guide, were echoing in the skies; the universe, with all its particles and the sun, was crying over this miserable situation of humanity.

In short, the whole world had been surrounded by a cloud of a disgusting shirk, ignorance, unbelief, torment and immorality. That cloud needed to be torn away with the unique light of a fresh, spiritual sun which dazzles eyes, spirits and hearts so that the world would be enlightened again.

That Sun of Bliss had to rise in the horizon of humanity so that the sorrowful faces might have a smile. So, the Universe, from its particles, sun, mountains, stones, to human beings and animals would not be considered meaningless and useless any more. So it would be known and comprehended that everything was a letter of Allah, written to be displayed to people. So unbelief would be replaced by pure belief, cruelty would be replaced by justice, enmity by peace, ignorance by knowledge and pain by bliss. So, every believer would be brothers and friends. So, the anger of the universe would turn into joy. Thus, the stars would smile and atoms would dance like mawlawis. Thus, the sun and the moon, the earth and the sky would continue to do their jobs with love and eagerly.

And so the humankind would know that the wisdom and reason why it was brought out of the darkness of nothingness and hosted on the earth is to know Allah, to believe in and to worship Him. Thus, they would reach true peace and happiness.

What was the religious life, moral life and social life like in Arabia before the Prophet (pbuh) was given the duty of prophethood?

Arabia - which covers a significant place in terms of politics, geography and trading on the world map - was not any different from other countries. In Arabia, too, everything was in a miserable, disgraceful situation except for language and literature.

Religious Situation

In terms of belief, Arabia was absolutely suffering in anarchy. Weird beliefs were to be found everywhere in Arabia.

Some of the people were unbelievers. They would not accept anything other than life on the earth and say, “What is there but our life in this world? We shall live and die, and nothing but time can destroy us” , they used spent their lives in entertainment only.

When the Honorable Messenger began to receive revelations, Allah would address those people with the following words:

“Say: "It is God Who gives you life, then gives you death; then He will gather you together for the Day of Judgment about which there is no doubt": But most men do not understand.”

And some of Arabs used to believe in Allah and the Day of Judgment, however, they would not admit the presence of a prophet. The Quran describes these people with the following verse:

“What kept men back from belief when Guidance came to them, was nothing but this: they said, "Has God sent a man (like us) to be (His) Apostle?”

They could not comprehend how a prophet could be from the humankind and thought it should have been an angel for this duty. The Quran, with its following verse, told those people how unreasonable their claim was:

“If there were settled, on earth, angels walking about in peace and quiet, We should certainly have sent them down from the heavens an angel for an apostle.”

And some of them believed in Allah; however, they would not believe in the afterworld, in resurrection after death and punishment and reckoning in the hereafter.

The Quran points out to this group of people with the following verse:

“And he makes comparisons for Us, and forgets his own (origin and) Creation: He says, "Who can give life to (dry) bones and decomposed ones (at that)?"

And the Quran answers those people with the following verse:

“Say, "He will give them life Who created them for the first time! For He is Well-versed in every kind of creation!”

And another group of them worshipped idols. This group was the majority. They worshipped idols which they made of stones, wood and sometimes of halwa and said:

“We only serve them so that they may bring us nearer to God.”

Yes, the majority of Arabs used to worship idols which were made of stones, wood and sometimes of halwa when they were in wartime, and they were in a miserable and disgraceful state of hoping help from them. They had filled Baytullah, the first house of Tawhid on the earth, with 360 idols. Hazrat Umar, who is known for his justice after being honored with conversion into Islam, told a memory of his about worshipping idols in the Era of Ignorance:

“There were two things we did in the Era of Ignorance. When I remember them, one of them makes me cry and the other makes me laugh. What makes me cry is this: We used to bury our daughters alive. I do not know how we could do this to those innocent and miserable babies in need of compassion. Whenever I remember this, my heart breaks and I cannot help crying.

As for the one which makes me laugh: There were idols in our houses in the Era of Ignorance. When we were on travel, we would make a statue of them from flour or halwa and worship them, respect them during travel. When the travel lasted longer, we would become hungry and eat our idols made of halwa, which we had respected before. Is there anything funnier than it? Whenever I remember it, I realize what silly things we had done in the Era of Ignorance and I laugh at that”.

However, traces of religion of Tawhid conveyed by Prophet Abraham were seen in Arabia as well. People who used to follow these religious traces, despite the heedlessness and the long time that passed since then were called “Hanif”, with regards to Abraham. As a matter of fact, the word “Hanif” is used for Abraham in the Quran:

“Abraham was not a Jew nor yet a Christian; but he was hanif (translated as “true” in English translations) in Faith”

People called “Hanif” hated idols and believed in the existence and oneness of God. As a matter of fact, in a funfair which was organized in the honor of one of the idols, Waraqa bin Nawfal, Ubaidullah bin Jahsh, Uthman bin Huwairith and Zaid bin Amr, who considered it despicableness to prostrate before idols which cannot speak, hear and cannot give anyone harm or benefit, and declared it clearly.

There were people who were able to understand that it was meaningless to worship lifeless idols by using their reasoning and struggled against this false belief. Umayya bin Abi Salt, the leader of Taif tribe and famous Arabian poet, was one of them. He read the holy books in the Era of Ignorance and converted from idolatry to the religion of Abraham. He was the first poet who found the expression of “Bismika Allahumma”. Later, Arabs liked this expression and started to write it at the beginnings of their books. He mentioned about the necessity of a prophet in his poems and stated that prophethood was an indispensable need for humanity. Since he found out from the holy books that a prophet would come out from Arabs, he desired to be the one. For this reason, when Muhammad was given the duty of prophethood, he became a victim of jealousy and grudge, and eventually did not accept him. Moreover, he cited his poems for the idolaters who were killed in the Battle of Badr.

A few hadiths were narrated about Umayya, who died in the second year of the Migration (Hijrah) without faith, from the Honorable Messenger. The Messenger was one day riding with Sharid bin Suwaid at his back. He asked the Companion: “Do you know anything about Umayya’s poems?” The Companion answered: “Yes, I do.” And he started to recite some of his poems. Having liked the poems so much, the Messenger asked Sharid to recite some more. The Companion finished reciting the whole poem. And the Messenger said:

“Umayya was very close to being a Muslim.”

In another narration, the Messenger said: “Umayya’s poems had faith yet he stayed in aberration himself.”

In this context, another one whose name we would mention is, for sure, Quss bin Saidah one of the famous Arabian rhetoricians. Later, we will talk about the khutbah of this person, who heralded the prophethood beforehand.

Idols

There is a story about how idols were brought to Makkah first: Amr bin Luhay is the first person who brought idols to the city and encouraged people to worship them. When Amr went to Damascus, he passed by somewhere called Maab and he saw a tribe descending from Noah there, worshipping idols. When he asked them why they were worshipping idols, they answered: “We ask for help from them and we are helped; we ask for rain and we get rain.” Upon this, Amr wanted an idol from them in order to take it to Makkah. They accepted it and gave him an idol named Hubal. Amr took Hubal with him to Makkah and put it there. He encouraged people to worship it. Ignorant people became convinced and started to worship idols.

This is how the first idol was brought to Makkah and how people started to worship idols.

Every Tribe had a Different Idol of Their Own

After that, idolatry started to spread in Makkah. Every tribe had a different idol of their own. People of Quraish used to consider Uzza as the greatest idol and worship it. Tribes of Aws and Khazraj used to worship an idol named Manat. This idol was somewhere called Mushallal between Makkah and Madinah. Later, these two tribes started to worship idols called Lat and Uzza, in addition to Manat. The idol of the tribe of Kalb was Wad and it was somewhere called Dumatu’l-Jandal. The tribe of Huzail used to worship an idol called Suwa. It was in Ghatafan. One branch of the tribe of Hamdan, Haywan, used to worship an idol called Yauk. It was somewhere about Hamdan. Tribes of Tayy and Nasr used to worship an idol called Yaghuth. And the people of Himyari tribe used to worship Nasr. Sons of Bakr and tribe of Kinana used to worship Sa’d.

The tribes mentioned above used to worship those idols and ask for help, rain and victory from them. According to their belief, these lifeless, soulless items made of stones or wood were capable of making their wishes come true. However, anyone who is sane enough knows and agrees that lifeless, soulless items can neither give benefit nor cause harm to people. They have neither capability nor power to help people. Nevertheless, Arabs of that time were so unreasonable that they could not even think of that.

So, Muhammad, the Messenger of Allah was going to come in order to save those people suffering from ignorance and aberration in terms of faith, with the light of knowledge and righteousness. He was going to undertake the duty of giving them light and peace.

Moral Situation

Moral situation of Arabia in the Era of Ignorance was desperately miserable. People were slaves of their wretched desires and aims… Alcohol, fornication, lying, theft, torment, cruelty and whatever else there is of immorality were spread all over Arabia.

Cruelty was the most merciless whip used against the weak by the strong. The strong ones were always the right ones. They could have the weak and powerless ones do whatever they want by force. Humans and human life were not cared even as much as a fly. People who were captivated with incursions were killed suffering in torments or sold in markets like simple items as slaves. Women were just a material which could be bought and sold. Owners of young maids used encourage them to commit fornication, and even force them into fornication in order to make money through them. The Quran mentioned about this event which does not comply with human dignity and prohibited them from doing this disgraceful tradition:

“Let those who find not the wherewithal for marriage keep themselves chaste, until God gives them means out of His grace. And if any of your slaves ask for a deed in writing (to enable them to earn their freedom for a certain sum), give them such a deed if ye know any good in them: yea, give them something yourselves out of the means which God has given to you. But force not your maids to prostitution when they desire chastity, in order that ye may make a gain in the goods of this life. But if anyone compels them, yet, after such compulsion, is God, Oft-Forgiving, Most Merciful (to them)”

A woman could live with more than one man at the same time. Such a woman used to declare this to public by planting a pole on the roof of her house.

A step-mother was inherited to her step-son from her husband just like a household item.

The Tradition of Burying Little Girls Alive

Some of the Arabs living in the desert used to consider it a sign of an upcoming disaster, a shameful thing to have a daughter. For this reason, when their daughters were born, cruel fathers used to bury them alive under the ground or throw them into wells, sometimes even without letting anyone see them. They tried to prove this cruel tradition right by putting forward some imaginary reasons. They used to say: “They will grow and taint our honor one day, or they will become miserable. Moreover, they will become a burden on us because of their living expenses and we will not be able to meet their needs.”

Sometimes a mother would have a hole dug up in the ground when the birth drew near. When the baby was born, if it was a girl, they would throw her into the hole right away and cover it with earth.

Fathers used to dress up their daughters, whom they decided to kill, in beautiful dresses as if they were taking them for a visit to relatives, and used to take them to the desert. Poor children would be put into the graves which had been prepared for them and buried alive. If they did not want to kill their daughters, they would dress them in thick, woolen gowns and isolate them from society by sending them away as sheep herders.

The Quran tells about this barbaric tradition of Arabs living in desert to us with the following verse:

“When news is brought to one of them, of (the birth of) a female (child), his face darkens, and he is filled with inward grief! With shame does he hide himself from his people, because of the bad news he has had! Shall he retain it on (sufferance and) contempt, or bury it in the dust? Ah! What an evil (choice) they decide on!”

Someone who had applied this barbaric tradition in the Era of Ignorance and later became a Muslim told this case to the Messenger in tears as follows:

“O Messenger of Allah! We are a people who had lived the Era of Ignorance. We used to worship idols and kill our daughters. I used to have a daughter. She used to come to me in joy when I called her. One day I called her again. She came running and followed me to a well which was not so far from our house. I held her hand and threw her into the well. Her last words to me were: Daddy! Daddy!”

The Lord of the Universe could not help crying upon hearing this violent memory. He cried so much that his beard got wet with his tears. Then he said:

“Verily, Allah leaves what you did in the Era of Ignorance there, unless you do them again. He does not transfer them into the Era of Islam.”

In those times, high characteristics called compassion and mercy were uprooted and thrown out of souls, hearts and consciousness. As a matter of fact, there can never be compassion and mercy in a heart in which there is no place for true belief in the Sultan of the Universe and for fear of the Sultan.

Political System

Arabia did not have a proper political system and social system in the Era of Ignorance. The majority of the people were leading a nomadic life. They were separated into tribes. A tribe is a community which determines its own social system. These nomadic tribes were continuously in conflict with each other. They had a lifestyle in which they were always ready to attack one another. Incursion and plunder were their means of livelihood. They used to attack an enemy tribe of theirs and take away their camels, and captivate their women and children.

There was not any time during which there was peace between them. If a tribe wronged another tribe, that tribe would try to revenge on it with the philosophy of an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth. Wars, fighting and incursion were so rooted in their souls and lives that they would fight each other if they could not find any hostile tribe to fight against. Poet Qutami means to express it with his lines “If we cannot find anyone else, we will attack Bakrs, who are our brothers.”

They had been living as tribes and clans for a long time. They had never thought of gathering around a central government. For this reason, the Peninsula was deprived of civilized and social laws. Eventually, there were always cruelty, conflicts, battles and fights. Anyone could do anything he wanted if he had enough power. Anything that the powerful and reputable people did would never be punished.

Literary Situation

In addition to all of these, it is an unobjectionable fact that Arabs were at the zenith of talent in literature, rhetoric and eloquence at the time Islam emerged. There were not any nations who could challenge them in this issue all over the world. Poetry and poets meant everything for them, because, poetry was the only trusted mirror which showed them the social life, traditions and beliefs of their ancestors. Poets were deemed very important in the society and they were highly respected. Arabs would even prefer a famous poet to come out of their tribes rather than a hero. As a matter of fact, it was only a poet who could spread their fame, which was their only aim. They were afraid of poets’ satires as they were afraid of snakes. Poets were considered heroes. Tribes could wage war against each other because of a single word of a poet. And yet, an enmity which had been going on between tribes could come to an end with a single word of poets.

In old times, poetry was called “Arab’s Notebook”. Frankly, Arabs’ moral values, traditions, religion and rules could be known only through poems and passed over to generations. In those times, there were many factors supporting and encouraging poetry. A strong poet would enable both himself and his tribe to be respected.

Moreover, funfairs organized at specific times played an important role in the development of poetry. These funfairs were a kind of literature fair. Poetry and rhetoric competitions were organized in the presence of juries in those funfairs. Poets and rhetoricians coming from various places used to recite their poems and make their speeches and do their best to beat each other. They were very proud of beating one another. At last, juries would choose the winner and the winning poem would be written with golden letters on a linen fabric and hung on the wall of the Kaaba.

Suq Uqaz, which was between Taif and Nahla, was the largest of all the funfairs. Mostly, poetry competitions were organized there…

Funfairs used to serve also as a sort of fair in which all tribes would come together for commercial, social and political activities. Funfairs organized in the month of Dhul-hijjah lasted for 20 days. Everyone who wanted to save a captive with ransom, to sort out a case, to find their enemy, to recite poems and to make speeches would rush into the funfairs. “Importance attached to poetry served to the result of the language being deeply investigated.” Eventually, literature, eloquence and rhetoric were at their zenith in Arabia by the time Islam emerged. So to speak, an invisible hand was readying minds and souls for the preternatural style of the Miraculous Quran.

Because Arabs had an outstanding talent in literature, the Quran was sent down at the zenith of literature, rhetoric and eloquence. It challenged Arabian litterateurs, poets and rhetoricians to spar with its miraculousness and conciseness. However, it was not long before that they understood that it was impossible to excel this unique book and had to quit.

The style of the Quran is so concise, so sweet, so clear and so fluent that Arabs who were experts on literature could not hide their surprise. One day, one of Arab fellahs’ leader read the verse “Therefore expound openly what thou art commanded, and turn away from those who join false gods with God.” and fell down in prostration, losing himself. This infuriated idolaters. They pointed their hateful looks on him and shouted out:

“You became a Muslim too?”

“No”, said the fellah litterateur. “I just prostrated before the eloquence and fluency of this verse.”

Imru’l Qais was one of the poets of Muallaqa. One day, his sister heard the verse “Then the word went forth: "O earth! Swallow up thy water, and O sky! Withhold (thy rain)!" and the water abated, and the matter was ended. The Ark rested on Mount Judi, and the word went forth: "Away with those who do wrong!” , she went to the Kaaba right away and took her brother’s poem down, which was hung on the wall at the top of all other poems and said: “Nobody has got something to say any more. Even my brother’s poem cannot stand before this eloquence.” When others saw that the most famous poem was taken down, they took down the other poems one by one, too.

The most famous and the oldest examples of poems of the Era of Ignorance are definitely the poems of “Muallaqat as-Sab’a” (Seven hangers). These poems were passed around and around, and reached the time when the Quran was sent down. It is strongly thought that these poems were collected by Hammad ar-Rawiya.

The poets whose poems were hung on the walls of the Kaaba are as follows:

Imru’l Qais, Tarafa, Labid, Zukhair, Amr bin Kulthum, Antara (a.k.a. Nabigha), Haris bin Hiliza (a.k.a. A’sha).

The religious, moral, political, social and literary state of Arabia at the time Hazrat Muhammad was about to be given the duty of prophethood was like that…

Of course, there was a need for a person who would change this scene of violence and barbarism. That person was already decided by the command of pre-eternal Fate: Hazrat Muhammad (pbuh).

He was going to change world’s physical and metaphysical face with the Divine Light he brought with him… He was going to turn people’s faces from world to the otherworld, from mortal lovers to the Eternal Beloved One and by doing this, he was going to provide people with worldly and unworldly happiness.

This person who was going to be assigned as a prophet by Allah was going to declare that people were not on their own, and everything in the universe from atoms to Solar systems, from stars to galaxies were wandering for a divine reason, and that universe was in the service of a sublime reason.

This person was going to save humanity from the marsh of immorality, in which they were swamping, by teaching them the most beautiful lessons of morality.

He was going to answer the questions such as “Why was the universe created?” “Where did the human beings come from?” and “Why did they come and where are they going to go?”

This person was going to inform people about Allah, who is the owner of the human beings, of what He wants from humans, what He likes and what He dislikes clearly.

This person was going to guide not only a specific tribe or a specific nation but also the whole humankind with orders he would take from Allah.

The Arabian Peninsula, too, like the whole world, was looking forward for that person to come in order to complete such significant duties.

The Trend is Your Friend

Last week stock prices rose to all-time new highs as bond prices fell.  There were material progress and enhancements made on the three key data points that we have been monitoring and discussing over the last several weeks: monetary policy, trade, and Brexit.

We are bemused listening to the pundits/experts each day as their views shift with the wind as they continue to miss the overriding positive trends influencing the financial markets. We expect further gains ahead as investors are significantly under-weighted in equities while being over-weighted in bonds and cash.

While we do expect the overall stock market to continue to rise as it remains undervalued still today, the key to outperformance will be stock selection. As we have gotten more confident that global growth has passed an inflection point from further downgrades to stabilization/acceleration next year, we began shifting the composition of our portfolios away from defensive stocks selling at record high valuations to more economically sensitive companies selling at recession valuations. Technology remains a core holding, too.  The common trait among all of our investments is that each company has superior management, winning short- and long-term business strategies, super strong financials and are generating tremendous cash flow to support growth initiatives, higher dividends and stock buybacks.

Let’s first review the three key data points that we are monitoring before reviewing what is occurring by region:

Monetary Policy. Accommodative policies exist everywhere in the industrialized world. More money is being created than used by the real economy which is good for financial assets.  We were not surprised that the Fed cut rates again last Wednesday reducing the Funds rate to a range of 1.5-1.75% as global growth remains sluggish and uncertainties from trade to fiscal relief/Brexit are still not resolved. What did surprise us, though, was Powell’s comments in the follow up news conference when he admitted that the Fed would NOT even think about raising rates until inflation was sustained at or above 2%. Remember that inflation has run under 2% for nearly 10 years now.  We have discussed over the years that low inflation was NOT transitory as the Fed clearly still believes due to the combination of globalization (competition), technological advancements and disruptors. Our conclusion Wednesday was that the Fed will remain accommodative a lot longer than generally perceived and will permit the economy to advance much longer, even running hot, until/if inflation rears its ugly head which we don’t expect. While we do expect the yield curve to steepen over the foreseeable future as global growth picks up, we believe that medium- and long-term rates will stay contained making equities, especially those with good dividends, more attractive as long term investments compared to even 5% long term bond yields. Never forget that low rates force investors to move out on the risk curve which also favors equities as an asset class.

Trade. We continue to hear favorable comments out of DC and Beijing that trade talks are going well and that Phase One of a trade deal could be signed in the foreseeable future. China even admitted on Friday that a consensus in principle with the U.S had been reached on the core trade concerns. The White House confirmed that talks between Vice Premier Liu and Robert Lighthizer/Steven Mnuchin had gone well. We were pleasantly surprised to hear President Trump chime in and say that Phase One would represent 60% of a long-term agreement. We do not expect an all-inclusive trade deal to be concluded before elections next year, but we do expect talks to continue and the U.S to postpone any additional tariff hereby reducing tensions between the two countries at least through election 2020.

Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally won support for an election on December 12 to hopefully settle Brexit one way or another. We continue to believe that there will not be a hard Brexit no matter what happens as the economic ramifications are just too negative for both Britain and the Continent.

One of our core beliefs is that we believe that Trump knows all too well that his reelection hinges on a strong economy and stock market. He will clearly do all in his power to make sure that this happens which means that he cannot escalate trade tensions, even with Europe. And that his agenda must expand next year to include a new round of tax cuts for the lower and middle class and other plans to boost the economy which hopefully includes an infrastructure and new health program. He may even talk about closing some tax loopholes that benefit the wealthy. Clearly fiscal policy will be wind to the back of the U.S economy to go along with a very accommodative Fed.

Let’s take a quick look at what is happening globally that support/detract from our continued belief that there is no place like home:

The United States

The vast majority of recent data points strongly suggest that the U.S economy will continue to roll along with 2+/-% growth well into 2020 supported by consumer and fiscal spending. Beside the Fed meeting, the key economic stat of the week was the monthly employment numbers which were nothing short of sensational: U.S payrolls increased by 128,000 jobs despite a 42,000 job loss due to the GM strike; hourly wages which may also have been hit by the strike rose 0.2% from the prior month and are up over 3% from a year ago; the participation  rate increased to 63.3, the highest level since 2013; and August and September employment numbers were revised up 50,000 and 46,000 respectively. The Labor department said its employment-cost index rose only 0.7% in the third quarter and 2.8% from a year ago. The U.S economy will add over 2 million jobs this year on top of the 4 million jobs created over the prior two years and wages are increasing faster than inflation. All of this bodes well for a great Christmas 2019 and beyond.

Here are some other stats reported last week: personal income increased 0.3% in September; disposable personal income rose 0.3%; PCE increased 0.2%; and the personal savings rate held at a whopping 8.3. It was reported that the U.S economy expanded by a surprising 1.9% in the third quarter as consumer spending rose at an annualized rate of 2.9%; non-residential fixed investment fell at a rate of 3.0% annualized; inventories were reduced penalizing growth and the trade sector continued to hurt growth too. On the other hand, housing and government spending were a tailwind to economic growth in the quarter. The Consumer Confidence Index for October was reported at a very healthy 125.9; the Present Situation index at 172.3 ad the future expectations index stood at 94.9. It was no surprise that the manufacturing sector continued to contract in October with the PMI sitting at 48.3, which was a slight improvement from the prior month; new orders index increased slightly too to 46.2 while the backlog index fell to 44.1.

Thank heaven the consumer plus government spending comprise nearly 90% of reported GNP as they remain strong while manufacturing and trade remain weak. U.S economic growth will remain around 2% for the foreseeable future. Let’s see if some of the manufacturing numbers pick up now that the GM strike has ended too.

China

The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI which is mostly small/medium size companies rose to 51.7 in October as both production and new orders accelerated meaningfully from the prior month. On the other hand, the official government PMI dropped to 49.3 in October which is more represented of government owned businesses and larger companies. The bottom line is that the Chinese manufacturing sector remains under tremendous pressure due to the trade conflict with the U.S. Even if an interim deal is reached with the U.S., we see corporations continuing to diversify their supply chains away from China despite the governments continued attempts to persuade them to stay. Growth in consumer spending and services will NOT be enough to sustain China’s growth above 6% in 2020 and beyond. China 2025 is in doubt!

The Eurozone

The baton has finally been passed from Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB which we view favorably as Europe needs guidance from fresh blood with a more global perspective that she brings with her.  Chancellor Merkel of Germany and her party are in trouble as evidenced by her party losing an election last week in a resounding way as calls for major fiscal relief were at the forefront of their loss. We are confident that change is finally in the air as the debate throughout Europe is now regarding major fiscal stimulus along with major regulatory reforms. It is hard to imagine the outlook in Europe getting any worse without major upheaval/rebellion from the status quo led by a super conservative Germany. Did you notice that European Consumer Confidence fell to a -7.6 in October? That is a negative sign.

Japan

The Bank of Japan met Thursday and reasserted their intent to throw everything into the Japanese economy to revive it and hopefully move inflation up to 2%. Wishful thinking as the country really needs global trade to improve to boost its own economy as the government is out of fiscal tools and the BOJ can’t do much more than they already have.

So why do we believe that the global economy is in the process of bottoming out and will improve next year?

We are confident that global trade conflicts have already peaked as it serves Trump’s political desires to have a strong U.S. economy along with higher stock prices going into election. President Xi has to stem the tide of corporations leaving China which weakens the country’s long-range planning and jeopardizes his aspirations for China 2025. Clearly both the U.S and Chinese economies will benefit from a cessation in escalating trade conflicts as will the rest of the world too. In addition, we see increased fiscal/regulatory relief in China, India and Europe next year too on top of the huge amount of fiscal stimulus here in the states. The bottom line is that growth is bottoming out and will begin to accelerate next year. Clearly the financial markets have already begun to sniff this all out as evidenced by the rise in bond yields globally to go along with a weakening dollar. Change is in the air and the new trend will be your friend.

As we said earlier, we began adjusting our portfolios weeks ago reducing our defensive holdings selling at their highest valuations in decades and buying some more economically sensitive companies with great managements with strong financials selling at recession valuations well below intrinsic value. We own technology companies; financials; global capital goods/industrials/machinery companies; cable with content; industrial commodities; retail with a housing bent; agricultural related and many special situations. We are flat the dollar although we expect it to decline and own no bonds as we expect the yield curve to steepen.

The weekly Investment Committee webinar will be held on Monday morning November 4th at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time. You can join the webinar by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset composition with risk controls; do independent research including listening to earnings call and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

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A Good Deal of people need to Agree that improving your cover should be an enjoyable action as opposed to a dull one. Cutting yourself off from the company circle or quitting your societal exercises to make additional cash sounds exceptionally pitiless. You do not need to change into a cave dweller with the aim your financial equilibrium swells - earning additional cash does not involve a exhausting and uneventful life. Here's a rundown of Things Which You should check prior to choosing your additional cash technique:

If You Believe you're Incredible at writing, at that stage, you can choose to write normal articles to your internet magazine; stunningly better if you're able to start your blog. If you're a avid gamer, at this stage, you may provide online educational exercises and consultants for sport fans from everywhere around the world. Standard postings out of you can pull massive collection along with your loyal lover following will fetch you that the publicizing income.

Does it cover your Workplace timings? Adaptability is a definitive mantra whilst picking a technique to make additional cash. If you decide on another wages technique that constrains one to come to arise from office and sit before your PC, in the stage, I am not so much convinced you could keep doing similarly for long. Decide on another job that allows you some breathing space and simultaneously encourages you to get.

The Easy methods to Make more cash are endless. You can make a great deal of money using the above-mentioned practices. What is more, because of the Web you can select whatever you would like. Truth be told, you are able to start working a few hours each day in a keen fashion and get additional cash.

You, in any instance, need The ability along with the demeanor of never surrendering in the event that you fall flat. Just trust On your skills and get started working. You may make additional cash every day shortly.

Earn extra money

Earn

Greatest Ways to Earn Extra Money

I am sure you may Seek out some better strategies to make additional cash. Thus, sidelining our tendency to always opt for the customary technique to make additional cash, we could evaluate part of their new-age strategies. Presently, as all of us know about the educational use of the net by a couple of folks to clean substitute earning manners, the time has come to gain as far as you can from it.

The World Wide Web has opened The window to some other world of making additional cash without such a high number of problems. Whatever the case, does this infer the old ways to make additional cash are obsolete? That's a severe suspicious subject because numerous people are as making lively and earnings sans work by using the established manners.

Info department, Online testimonials, blogging, website structuring, online advertising, Google promotion conflicts etc have attracted a lot of bucks to get some and you can earn a head start with any of those money plans. Consequently, if you're trying to find a new perspective into one or more one of these pay methods then you are able to research ahead.

Due to the difficult Monetary conditions, everyone even wealthy individuals are trying to find ways to make additional cash. All you need to flourish within this market is consistency, diligent work, and persistence. There are quite a few methods by which you can acquire cash online and ; you need no funds.

All you require is an Decent PC and trusted internet institution. There are many tricks on the opposite hand and you need to be careful before picking one. A website that guarantees a lot of benefit within a succinct period and provides money before you recognize what it is you're doing is a trick.

There Are Numerous real Ways to make additional cash. All you need to do before deciding on a decision is to learn your strong targets and select one.

A number of the top ways to Make more cash are clarified below:

Whatever you need is your thought Of the information you want to tackle and a site. Confirm you have a place where you could post the website. Thus, to make additional cash, you must get an autonomous site. The content needs to be informative, easy and clear, and also have advice affecting individuals. In case you've got extraordinary content, then your site might find a lot of traffic that means getting more money.

The main thing you Need to do to reduce the probability of shedding would be to find a subsidiary program it's possible to work with. Know the thing you expect to market and discover out about the product market layout. With time, you'll discover about hints and strategies that will enable you to enlarge prices.

Internet Marketing is Publicizing things and administrations for a variety of organizations and generating salary determined by the prospects that signal up with these organizations by your site. Since people use the internet to inquire about different things and administrations, online advertising can set you up so your website will get a higher position and producing a direct in the people that are exploring comparative things and administrations.

Promoting Your Products

It's truly possible for One to make additional cash by selling your merchandise whether or not you do not have a page. You simply should have the information regarding the thing in an E-book. Assurance that they're of good if the internet is so competitive. It's essential to make certain your customer service replies messages punctually to produce your company keep going for long and flourish.

It includes speaking about A problem in a solo or gathering using a series. Discussion article destinations are thusly manner of posing and imagining questions. A couple of locales cover you for your posting and responding to queries, though they do not pay a lot of money, it's among those approaches to acquire extra money.

A Brand New New Perspective To Make Extra Money

A Good Deal of people need to Agree that improving your cover should be an enjoyable action as opposed to a dull one. Cutting yourself off from the company circle or quitting your societal exercises to make additional cash sounds exceptionally pitiless. You do not need to change into a cave dweller with the aim your financial equilibrium swells - earning additional cash does not involve a exhausting and uneventful life. Here's a rundown of Things Which You should check prior to choosing your additional cash technique:

If You Believe you're Incredible at writing, at that stage, you can choose to write normal articles to your internet magazine; stunningly better if you're able to start your blog. If you're a avid gamer, at this stage, you may provide online educational exercises and consultants for sport fans from everywhere around the world. Standard postings out of you can pull massive collection along with your loyal lover following will fetch you that the publicizing income.

Does it cover your Workplace timings? Adaptability is a definitive mantra whilst picking a technique to make additional cash. If you decide on another wages technique that constrains one to come to arise from office and sit before your PC, in the stage, I am not so much convinced you could keep doing similarly for long. Decide on another job that allows you some breathing space and simultaneously encourages you to get.

The Easy methods to Make more cash are endless. You can make a great deal of money using the above-mentioned practices. What is more, because of the Web you can select whatever you would like. Truth be told, you are able to start working a few hours each day in a keen fashion and get additional cash.

You, in any instance, need The ability along with the demeanor of never surrendering in the event that you fall flat. Just trust On your skills and get started working. You may make additional cash every day shortly.

Earn extra money

Earn

Greatest Ways to Earn Extra Money

I am sure you may Seek out some better strategies to make additional cash. Thus, sidelining our tendency to always opt for the customary technique to make additional cash, we could evaluate part of their new-age strategies. Presently, as all of us know about the educational use of the net by a couple of folks to clean substitute earning manners, the time has come to gain as far as you can from it.

The World Wide Web has opened The window to some other world of making additional cash without such a high number of problems. Whatever the case, does this infer the old ways to make additional cash are obsolete? That's a severe suspicious subject because numerous people are as making lively and earnings sans work by using the established manners.

Info department, Online testimonials, blogging, website structuring, online advertising, Google promotion conflicts etc have attracted a lot of bucks to get some and you can earn a head start with any of those money plans. Consequently, if you're trying to find a new perspective into one or more one of these pay methods then you are able to research ahead.

Due to the difficult Monetary conditions, everyone even wealthy individuals are trying to find ways to make additional cash. All you need to flourish within this market is consistency, diligent work, and persistence. There are quite a few methods by which you can acquire cash online and ; you need no funds.

All you require is an Decent PC and trusted internet institution. There are many tricks on the opposite hand and you need to be careful before picking one. A website that guarantees a lot of benefit within a succinct period and provides money before you recognize what it is you're doing is a trick.

There Are Numerous real Ways to make additional cash. All you need to do before deciding on a decision is to learn your strong targets and select one.

A number of the top ways to Make more cash are clarified below:

Whatever you need is your thought Of the information you want to tackle and a site. Confirm you have a place where you could post the website. Thus, to make additional cash, you must get an autonomous site. The content needs to be informative, easy and clear, and also have advice affecting individuals. In case you've got extraordinary content, then your site might find a lot of traffic that means getting more money.

The main thing you Need to do to reduce the probability of shedding would be to find a subsidiary program it's possible to work with. Know the thing you expect to market and discover out about the product market layout. With time, you'll discover about hints and strategies that will enable you to enlarge prices.

Internet Marketing is Publicizing things and administrations for a variety of organizations and generating salary determined by the prospects that signal up with these organizations by your site. Since people use the internet to inquire about different things and administrations, online advertising can set you up so your website will get a higher position and producing a direct in the people that are exploring comparative things and administrations.

Promoting Your Products

It's truly possible for One to make additional cash by selling your merchandise whether or not you do not have a page. You simply should have the information regarding the thing in an E-book. Assurance that they're of good if the internet is so competitive. It's essential to make certain your customer service replies messages punctually to produce your company keep going for long and flourish.

It includes speaking about A problem in a solo or gathering using a series. Discussion article destinations are thusly manner of posing and imagining questions. A couple of locales cover you for your posting and responding to queries, though they do not pay a lot of money, it's among those approaches to acquire extra money.

A Brand New New Perspective To Make Extra Money

A Good Deal of people need to Agree that improving your cover should be an enjoyable action as opposed to a dull one. Cutting yourself off from the company circle or quitting your societal exercises to make additional cash sounds exceptionally pitiless. You do not need to change into a cave dweller with the aim your financial equilibrium swells - earning additional cash does not involve a exhausting and uneventful life. Here's a rundown of Things Which You should check prior to choosing your additional cash technique:

If You Believe you're Incredible at writing, at that stage, you can choose to write normal articles to your internet magazine; stunningly better if you're able to start your blog. If you're a avid gamer, at this stage, you may provide online educational exercises and consultants for sport fans from everywhere around the world. Standard postings out of you can pull massive collection along with your loyal lover following will fetch you that the publicizing income.

Does it cover your Workplace timings? Adaptability is a definitive mantra whilst picking a technique to make additional cash. If you decide on another wages technique that constrains one to come to arise from office and sit before your PC, in the stage, I am not so much convinced you could keep doing similarly for long. Decide on another job that allows you some breathing space and simultaneously encourages you to get.

The Easy methods to Make more cash are endless. You can make a great deal of money using the above-mentioned practices. What is more, because of the Web you can select whatever you would like. Truth be told, you are able to start working a few hours each day in a keen fashion and get additional cash.

You, in any instance, need The ability along with the demeanor of never surrendering in the event that you fall flat. Just trust On your skills and get started working. You may make additional cash every day shortly.

Earn extra money

Earn

Greatest Ways to Earn Extra Money

I am sure you may Seek out some better strategies to make additional cash. Thus, sidelining our tendency to always opt for the customary technique to make additional cash, we could evaluate part of their new-age strategies. Presently, as all of us know about the educational use of the net by a couple of folks to clean substitute earning manners, the time has come to gain as far as you can from it.

The World Wide Web has opened The window to some other world of making additional cash without such a high number of problems. Whatever the case, does this infer the old ways to make additional cash are obsolete? That's a severe suspicious subject because numerous people are as making lively and earnings sans work by using the established manners.

Info department, Online testimonials, blogging, website structuring, online advertising, Google promotion conflicts etc have attracted a lot of bucks to get some and you can earn a head start with any of those money plans. Consequently, if you're trying to find a new perspective into one or more one of these pay methods then you are able to research ahead.

Due to the difficult Monetary conditions, everyone even wealthy individuals are trying to find ways to make additional cash. All you need to flourish within this market is consistency, diligent work, and persistence. There are quite a few methods by which you can acquire cash online and ; you need no funds.

All you require is an Decent PC and trusted internet institution. There are many tricks on the opposite hand and you need to be careful before picking one. A website that guarantees a lot of benefit within a succinct period and provides money before you recognize what it is you're doing is a trick.

There Are Numerous real Ways to make additional cash. All you need to do before deciding on a decision is to learn your strong targets and select one.

A number of the top ways to Make more cash are clarified below:

Whatever you need is your thought Of the information you want to tackle and a site. Confirm you have a place where you could post the website. Thus, to make additional cash, you must get an autonomous site. The content needs to be informative, easy and clear, and also have advice affecting individuals. In case you've got extraordinary content, then your site might find a lot of traffic that means getting more money.

The main thing you Need to do to reduce the probability of shedding would be to find a subsidiary program it's possible to work with. Know the thing you expect to market and discover out about the product market layout. With time, you'll discover about hints and strategies that will enable you to enlarge prices.

Internet Marketing is Publicizing things and administrations for a variety of organizations and generating salary determined by the prospects that signal up with these organizations by your site. Since people use the internet to inquire about different things and administrations, online advertising can set you up so your website will get a higher position and producing a direct in the people that are exploring comparative things and administrations.

Promoting Your Products

It's truly possible for One to make additional cash by selling your merchandise whether or not you do not have a page. You simply should have the information regarding the thing in an E-book. Assurance that they're of good if the internet is so competitive. It's essential to make certain your customer service replies messages punctually to produce your company keep going for long and flourish.

It includes speaking about A problem in a solo or gathering using a series. Discussion article destinations are thusly manner of posing and imagining questions. A couple of locales cover you for your posting and responding to queries, though they do not pay a lot of money, it's among those approaches to acquire extra money.

A Brand New New Perspective To Make Extra Money

A Good Deal of people need to Agree that improving your cover should be an enjoyable action as opposed to a dull one. Cutting yourself off from the company circle or quitting your societal exercises to make additional cash sounds exceptionally pitiless. You do not need to change into a cave dweller with the aim your financial equilibrium swells - earning additional cash does not involve a exhausting and uneventful life. Here's a rundown of Things Which You should check prior to choosing your additional cash technique:

If You Believe you're Incredible at writing, at that stage, you can choose to write normal articles to your internet magazine; stunningly better if you're able to start your blog. If you're a avid gamer, at this stage, you may provide online educational exercises and consultants for sport fans from everywhere around the world. Standard postings out of you can pull massive collection along with your loyal lover following will fetch you that the publicizing income.

Does it cover your Workplace timings? Adaptability is a definitive mantra whilst picking a technique to make additional cash. If you decide on another wages technique that constrains one to come to arise from office and sit before your PC, in the stage, I am not so much convinced you could keep doing similarly for long. Decide on another job that allows you some breathing space and simultaneously encourages you to get.

The Easy methods to Make more cash are endless. You can make a great deal of money using the above-mentioned practices. What is more, because of the Web you can select whatever you would like. Truth be told, you are able to start working a few hours each day in a keen fashion and get additional cash.

You, in any instance, need The ability along with the demeanor of never surrendering in the event that you fall flat. Just trust On your skills and get started working. You may make additional cash every day shortly.