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mariacallous · 4 months

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From Taiwan and Finland in January to Croatia and Ghana in December, one of the largest combined electorates in history will vote for new governments in 2024. This should be a cause of celebration and a vindication of the power of the ballot box. Yet this coming year is likely to see one of the starkest erosions of liberal democracy since the end of the Cold War. At their worst, the overall results could end up as a bloodbath or, marginally less bleakly, as a series of setbacks.

At first glance, the stats are impressive. Forty national elections will take place, representing 41 percent of the world’s population and 42 percent of its gross domestic product. Some will be more consequential than others. Some will be more unpredictable than others. (You can strike Russia and Belarus from that list.) One or two may produce uplifting results.

However, in the United States and Europe, the two regions that are the cradles of democracy—or at least, that used to project themselves as such—the year ahead is set to be bracing.

It is no exaggeration to say that the structures established after World War II, and which have underpinned the Western world for eight decades, will be under threat if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins a second term in November. Whereas his first period in the White House might be regarded as a psychodrama, culminating in the paramilitary assault on Congress shortly after his defeat, this time around, his menace will be far more professional and penetrating.

European diplomats in Washington fear a multiplicity of threats—the imposition of blanket tariffs, also known as a trade war; the sacking of thousands of public officials and their replacement with politicized loyalists; and the withdrawal of remaining support for Ukraine and the undermining of NATO. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the return of Trump would be manna from heaven. Expect some form of provocation from the Kremlin in the Baltic states or another state bordering Russia to test the strength of Article 5, the mutual defense clause of the Western alliance.

More broadly, a Trump victory would arguably mark the final dismantling of the credibility of Western liberal democracies. From India to South Africa and from Brazil to Indonesia, countries variously called middle powers, pivot countries, multi-aligned states—or, now less fashionably, the global south—will continue the trend of picking and choosing their alliances, seeing moral equivalence in the competitive bids on offer.

The greatest effect that a Trump return could have would be on Europe, accelerating the onward march of the alt right or far right across the continent. Yet that trend will have gained momentum long before Americans go to the polls. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are looking over their shoulders as the second wave of populism affects the conduct of government.

The wedge issue that is threatening all moderate parties is immigration, just as it did in 2015, when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed in more than 1 million refugees from the Middle East in what is now seen as the first wave of Europe’s immigration crisis. This time around, the arguments propagated by the AfD (the far-right Alternative for Germany party), Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, and similar groups across the continent have permeated the political mainstream.

The past 12 months have seen European Union decision-making constantly undermined by Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary, particularly further support for Ukraine. For the moment, he stands alone, but he is likely to be joined by others, starting with the newly returned Prime Minister Robert Fico in Slovakia. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has struck a tacit deal with Brussels, remaining loyal on supporting Ukraine (against her instincts and previous statements) in return for effectively being given carte blanche in Italy’s domestic politics.

In September, Austria seems almost certain to vote in a coalition of the far right and the conservatives. A country that has (ever since the withdrawal of Soviet forces in 1955) prized its neutrality and been keen to ingratiate itself with Moscow has already been uncomfortable giving full-scale support to Kyiv. We can expect that support to soon be scaled back.

One of the few countries with a center-left administration, Portugal, will see it join the pack of the right and far right when snap elections are held in March. The previous incumbent, the Socialist Party’s outgoing Prime Minister Antonio Costa, was forced to quit amid a corruption investigation.

The most explosive moment is likely to occur in June, with the elections to the European Parliament. This reshuffling of the Euro-pack, which happens once every four years, was always seen in the United Kingdom as an opportunity to behave even more frivolously than usual. In 2014, the British electorate, in its inestimable wisdom, put Nigel Farage and his U.K. Independence Party in first place, setting in train a series of events that, two years later, led to the referendum to leave the EU.

Having seen the damage wrought by Brexit, voters in the remaining 27 EU member states are not angling for their countries to go it alone. However, many will use the opportunity to express their antipathy to mainstream politics by opting for a populist alternative. Some might see it as a low-risk option, believing that the European parliament does not count for much.

In so doing, they would be deluding themselves. It is entirely possible that the various forces of the far right could emerge as the single biggest bloc. This might not lead to a change in the composition of the European Commission (the diminished mainstream groupings would still collectively hold a majority), but any such extremist upsurge will change the overall dynamics across Europe.

Far-right parties in charge of governments will see themselves emboldened to pursue ever more radical nativist policies. In countries in where they are junior members of ruling coalitions (such as in Sweden), they will apply further pressure on their more mainstream conservative partners to move in their direction.

Conversely, countries that saw a surprising resurgence of the mainstream in national elections this year are unlikely to see that trend maintained. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s success in staving off the right was achieved only by cutting a deal with Catalan separatists. This led to protests by Spanish nationalists and a situation that is anything but stable.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s victory in Poland was at least as remarkable because the far-right Law and Justice party (PiS) government had used its years in government to try to skew the media and the courts in its direction. Expect PiS gains in June.

The most alarming result of 2023 was the return to prominence, and the verge of power, of Geert Wilders. The Dutch elections provide a how-not-to guide for mainstream politicians. The willingness of the center-right party of the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte to contemplate a coalition with Wilders’s Party for Freedom emboldened many voters who had assumed their vote would be disregarded.

In Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, the so-called firewall established by the main parties to refuse to govern with the AfD is beginning to fray. Already, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is working with them in small municipalities. Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, has dropped hints that such an option might not be out of the question at the regional level.

If the AfD gains the largest number of seats in the June European Parliament elections (opinion polls currently put it only marginally behind the CDU and ahead of all three parties in Scholz’s so-called traffic light coalition), then the momentum will change rapidly. It could go on to win three of the states in the former communist east—Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg—next autumn. Germany would enter unchartered territory.

These dire predictions could end up being overblown. Mainstream parties in several countries may defy the doom merchants and emerge less badly than forecast. Given recent trends, however, optimism is thin on the ground.

There is one election, however, due to take place in the latter part of 2024 that could produce not just a centrist outcome, but one with a strong majority in its parliament. Britain, the country that left the heart of Europe, the island that until recently was run by a clown, could emerge as the lodestar for modern social democracy. The irony would be lost on no one.

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alphynix · 1 year

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Strange Symmetries #01

Most animals are bilaterally symmetric, having body plans with mirrored left and right sides – which also allows them to have a defined head end, rear end, top side, and underside.

It's not entirely clear what evolutionary advantage this type of symmetry gave to the first bilaterians, which would have been been small "simple" worm-like animals living sometime during the Ediacaran Period between 600 and 560 million years ago. The current generally accepted explanation is that it probably allowed for better active locomotion – clustering sense organs at the head end and directing body movement more efficiently towards food sources and away from threats.

However, this sort of symmetry is never completely perfect. Internal structures like organs are often arranged nonsymmetrically, and the realities of genetics, physical development, and environmental influences always result in external small deviations.

Zebra From The Back by Lynn Greyling | CC0 Public Domain

…But not every bilaterian has stayed roughly symmetrical.

Over the last half-billion years or so some bilaterians have abandoned their roughly-mirror-image body plans in favor of something distinctly wonkier. Asymmetry has evolved multiple times in various different lineages, and so every weekday this month we'll be looking at some examples.

And we might as well start way back near the beginning:

———

Strange Symmetries #01: Almost Bilateral

Living in the Ediacaran between about 567 and 550 million years ago, the proarticulatans were flattened rounded organisms with two rows of soft "quilted" rib-like segments (known as isomers) and sometimes a larger fused "head" section at the front. The left and right isomers weren't perfectly mirrored, instead being offset from each other in a glide reflection pattern – but the presence of a clear central body axis suggests these animals may have had some sort of relation to the earliest bilaterians, possibly even being a very early stem group that was experimenting with a not-quite-totally-bilateral body plan.

Discovered in what is now northwest Russia, and dating to around 555 million years ago, Vendia sokolovi was a small proarticulatan measuring about 1.1cm long (0.4"). It had a rather small number of isomers compared to some of its relatives, only 7 per side, and seems to have had a simple digestive tract that branched into each isomer.

(The superficial resemblance to trilobites was coincidental – while we might not be entirely sure what these things were, we do at least know they weren't closely related to early arthropods.)

Very little overall is known about these animals' lifestyles. Trace fossils suggest they were able to move around, feeding on microbial mats on the seafloor, and they may also have been able to firmly stick themselves onto the spots they were currently grazing.

———

NixIllustration.com | Tumblr | Twitter | Patreon

#science illustration #strange symmetries #paleontology #paleoart #palaeoblr #vendia #proarticulata #ediacaran #bilateria #maybe #art #asymmetry #glide reflection

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gatheringbones · 10 months

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[“My father died in his sixties of sarcoidosis, an inflammatory disease that affects multiple organs in the body, including the lungs and heart. The physician who performed my father’s autopsy told me that his lungs, heart, spleen, and brain were so damaged that he must have had undiagnosed and untreated sarcoidosis for decades, and that, given the widespread damage to his vital organs, it was surprising he was even able to remain upright toward the end of his life. For years before his death, his body was a Jenga tower one move away from collapse.

Though this appeared nowhere in the official cause of death, one could certainly speculate that my father’s premature death was the result of unrelenting social pressure on top of childhood trauma—or, in other words, weathering. And there was a generational legacy of weathering to contend with, too—not just his own, but the weathering that was passed down to him from his family, whose uphill battles began in the shtetl and continued after their escape from persecution in Russia, when they came to America as poor immigrants and settled down to a difficult life in a working-class urban ghetto. Being targeted for genocide, and suffering the losses of two of her children and the slaughter of her parents, plunged my father’s mother into depression and left her desperately anxious about the health of her youngest son.

In current parlance, we would speculate that my father was affected by adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), a type of trauma that is associated with diminished health in later life. Examples of ACEs include losing a family member to death or to prison, being depressed or having a primary caregiver who is depressed, going hungry for long periods, and suffering neglect or abuse. Today, scientists have found evidence that if you were subject to ACEs during critical periods of your brain development, your brain architecture may be affected such that your threshold for physiological stress arousal is permanently lower (meaning it is triggered more easily). To the extent that you will live your life in similarly adverse circumstances, having this lower threshold can be adaptive. But what if the adversity you actually face is entirely different from the circumstances in which you were born?

Imagine what it would be like if your brain architecture was calibrated by a world rife with ACEs, yet, as you grew up, you entered an environment that contained none of the kinds of threats or stressors your brain had prepared you for. You went to school with, worked with, or lived next to members of communities whose neurological threshold for stress arousal was shaped by enjoying lives of privilege and safety. Your hair-trigger reactions to perceived threats could get you dismissed as uncivil, touchy, hot-tempered, a troublemaker, or a snowflake. Your more privileged classmates or coworkers or neighbors could feel superior as they patted themselves on the back for remaining civil and calm, letting verbal provocations roll off their back or, worse, being happily unaware that the substance of their civil discourse could, in fact, be a verbal provocation to race-conscious ears. They would not understand that your brain and body were adapted for responding to a world filled with threats and that you had been primed to be in a continuous state of vigilance. Or you knew that when the privileged performed civility, that alone did not imply they weren’t proliferating racist ideas.

This appears to have been my father’s lived experience as an adult. He probably lived in a permanently sustained or easily escalated state of physiological stress arousal, which over time weathered his body. For my father, achieving an advanced education conferred real material benefits and privileges. These were important prizes, and they offered my sisters and me a degree of financial security and opportunities he never had in his youth; yet, for my father, this alone was not enough to heal his early and intergenerational traumas, or to prevent the physiological damage that led to his early death.”]

arline t. geronimus, from weathering: the extraordinary stress of ordinary life in an unjust society, 2023

#arline t. geronimus #cw medical #currently reading #cw genocide

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garyroachsanderson · 1 year

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How your oc works with 141, or just headcanons about them in general? excited to learn more :0

ive been waiting for this one

could also be seen as an x reader.. maybe? if you relate to nerve then yes. i won’t mention their physical appearance too often

NERVE X 141 (PLATONIC HEADCANONS)

mentions of exposed nerves, wounds, transphobia maybe?

some background:

Nerve is a CoD OC i’ve had since 2018. I haven’t gotten very far on their backstory, but this fic takes place during 2016 (MW2). Nerve is Russian/Hispanic but was born in the U.S., circa 1997, even though they spent their childhood in Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Russia. I can elaborate on their backstory in a future fic, if anyone would like me to.

Nerve is fluent in English, Russian, and Spanish. They speak a little Portuguese as well (mainly because of its similarity to Russian). Their accent is a light mix of Russian and Honduran, but it’s not strong.

They were found by the 141 as an abandoned soldier in the middle of bumfuck Russian wilderness. They were in their late teens, and were too afraid and shaken to even consider speaking. Thankfully, they posed no immediate threat, as once they were given medical attention, the first thing they did was insult Soap’s hairstyle.

“ . . . “

“What?”

“ . . . “

“Why are you staring at me?”

“ . . Уродливый сукин сын. “ (ugly son of a bitch)

Yuri laughed. The others didn’t.

Speaking of Yuri, they grew especially close to him even though they aren’t very good at showing it. An extra dinner roll, putting some more care into his wounds, or simply completing a task in the same room as him. He was the only other Russian.

Nerve was dubbed that because before their squadron abandoned them, they used to literally create nerve gas in a basement. They were incredibly skilled in chemistry and knew how to use it to their advantage, but stopped using it because of the damage it caused. They were also named that because they were constantly nervous, just completely rigid, and it was easy to get on their nerves.

The name was official when they were wounded in battle and their mate had failed to operate on them. A literal exposed nerve hung out of their body. They have permanent nerve damage in that area—their right forearm.

Nerve used to be in the Russian air force. Being drafted in a time of need and at 16 years old, they simply went to where they needed the most soldiers—not that they had a choice in where they went, anyway. They flew a Su-27SKM. They named it ‘Lassie’, much to Soap’s delight.

Laswell convinced Price for Nerve to join. She’d grown quite attached to them, because they immediately attached themselves onto her arm when they were rescued. Nerve prefers not to bring it up.

Actually, the 141 doesn’t even know their gender. They have long hair, a heart shaped face, and slightly feminine features, but their build is curveless and thin, despite muscular. It turned into an entire debate.

“If it was a girl, she would have had her period or cried by now, right? Maybe she’d have a little bit of bust.” Soap hisses.

“If they were male, they’d have more masculine features. They wouldn’t be a staggering 5’7. Also, they’re not an ‘it’, Johnny.” Ghost retorts.

Ghost turns to the soldier fidgeting with a cube in the corner. “Ma’am.” He barks at them, to which they turn their head. He snorts, and Soap responds with pausing until they’ve returned to their cube, and then shouting “Sir.” They turn their head as well. Gaz laughs.

They are AFAB, but they have a condition in which they produce more testosterone and androgen than the usual AFAB person. On the occasion they do have a menstrual cycle, they just play it off like they’ve been shot in the abdomen. Easier to explain.

They’re steady, a force to hold onto when running into a crowd. They’ll keep you by your side, and never takes unexpected turns.

If they were an animal, they’d imagine themselves to be a donkey. Not a mule, though; they’re afraid of horses. And anything with horse blood. That’s why they’re as stubborn as one.

Hates when they’re spoken down to. They don’t give their higher-ups any extra respect than they need. Hates when they have to submit to anything.

You want to know their name? Absolutely not. (It’s Arkady.) Nobody alive knows any of their names outside of that, though.

#call of duty modern warfare #cod #john price #kyle gaz garrick #call of duty #modern warfare #simon ghost riley #soap mactavish #simon riley #cod oc #kate laswell #modern warfare 2 #cod x reader #simon ghost riley x reader

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ari-burr · 1 year

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𝗽𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀

Scenario: “How would America, China, and Canada react to a young superpower wanting to fight them?”

America { Alfred F. Jones } - “Hahah!! You must joking kid! You don’t wanna fight me.”

To put it plainly, America won’t take you seriously and will probably shrug off your “small” threats regardless of if your a superpower or not.

But he still knows better than to keep his eyes away from a potential enemy. [Besides world domination] His main concern is to make sure his citizens are happy and untouched; toiling away with their lives without the threat of war.

You mouth off, then congratulations: your America’s new oil target.

Picking a fight with him personally is one thing, but threatening his people? That’s something he’ll make sure you’ll regret. He ain’t much of a fan in beating down the newer countries, though someone has to teach them a lesson.

China { Yao Wang } - “Aiyah! You younger countries are so insistent for power-aru. You should just be focused on maintaining what you have!”

*Sigh* The younger nations are becoming such a pain. He already has to deal with America and Russia’s antics on a daily basis and now, a new one wants to challenge him to a fight.

Unlike America, China won’t be as willing to throw fists with you. Instead, his diplomatic side will show and speak out to you. Putting all those years of sweet talking emperors and empresses to use, to make you see how worthless it is to go out and ask for trouble towards other countries.

However, if your still persistent in wanting a fight out of him he’ll humor you. Just don’t say he didn’t warn you. Either on the battlefield, or one on one, it’ll be next to impossible to outwit him.

The nation has lived too long, seen too much, to not know the in’s and out’s of combat. Besides, it was a bad choice already to tempt China’s temper.

Canada { Matthew Williams } - “I-I’m sorry, why do you want to fight me? Shouldn’t you ask America for this?”

Okay bro. Out of any country in the world—why do you want to physically quarrel with Canada? He’s like, the most peaceful nation you’re ever going to meet. That’s just inconsiderate. The poor man is already dealing with excessive loneliness and then the only time he does get noticed, is when someone wants to fight him?!

Not to say Canada is completely powerless, but still, he’d much rather have a good conversation with words instead of brawls. So please, don’t let your arrogance force this guy to fight you. Canada may not be as strong as his brother, but he fought in World War 2 for a reason. [He kicked a lot of ass during that time period]

Obviously that era of nation against nation is over for him now, so unless it’s purely in a matter of self-defense he’ll be reluctant to partaking in any sort of violence.

~ I actually wrote this scenario a long time ago, but after re-reading everything, I just realized how scary these guys would be if they were real lmao.

#hetalia #hws hetalia #aph hetalia #hetalia america #hetalia china #yao wang #alfred f. jones #fighting #angst #by ari-burr #hetalia x reader #hetalia america x reader #hetalia china x reader #hetalia canada x reader #matthew williams

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poorshadowspaintedqueens · 11 months

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Considering how sexist the medieval times were for women and how there are men in our world today who still can’t stomach a woman in the top boss ceo. How did they cope with queens? Like Elizabeth 1st? I know Mary 1st of Scotland had a horrific time. But Cathrine the great (a but later) and quite a few Scandinavian ruling queens. But In Tudor times was it just because Elizabeth was the only Tudor left? That made men less domineering and more obedient? Because I heard Mary 1st of England still had a difficult time too, more so than Elizabeth

Well, first of all, it's important not to conflate medieval with early modern. Periodization is a modern construct, but we are looking at roughly a thousand years of recorded time, so it's worth remembering that how people viewed a woman exercising power in 1200 would not necessarily equate to how people viewed a woman exercising power in 1600. Also important to remember is that you can't apply the example of one country to others. Just because the English had a problem with women ruling in their own right doesn't mean other countries in Europe (France, Scandinavia, Russia, etc) were as rigid about it.

All that being said, in the broadest sense, the way that Elizabeth I managed to hold on to power as long as she did was, unfortunately for those who want to view her as a feminist icon, by presenting herself as unique amongst women. That she was both the Queen of England and the Supreme Head of the Church of England made this an easier sell, at least to her Protestant subjects. It also, of course, made her a favourite target for Catholics.

That there were other contemporary women also ruling in their own right (Mary Stuart) or on behalf of male relatives (Catherine de' Medici) may have been something Elizabeth viewed as a threat, rather than a sign of progress. It's hard to say. But if you look at a lot of the rhetoric she uses in her speeches and her letters, she very much leans on the idea of herself as an avatar of England, a woman above all others. The persona of the Virgin Queen, in essence.

I also firmly believe that Elizabeth could not have succeeded as she did if she had not followed Mary I. A lot of her rhetoric is actually based on similar passages from speeches and letters written by or on Mary's behalf. Mary was exceptionally well-educated too, and people often forget that because she's so overshadowed by her half-sister. Mary had the triple misfortune of being Catholic, being chronically ill, and being married to Philip II of Spain. Any one of those individually, she might have been able to work through, but all three proved to be too much.

Catherine de' Medici, on the opposite side of the channel, exercised power in a different way, and part of the reason for that was because France (and, to a far lesser extent, the Italian city-states) both had established precedents for women ruling as regents. The problem that Mary Stuart ran into (well, one of them) was that she was raised in France and took many of those precedents for granted when she attempted to rule in Scotland.

If we want to talk about earlier queens, the fact is that we do have evidence of queens exercising power, it's just not in any sort of systematic way.

#medieval history #Europe #England #France #early modern #16th century #mary i of england #elizabeth i #catherine de' medici #mary stuart

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qqueenofhades · 2 years

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what are your thoughts on Russia’s mobilization and reports that they’re heavily ‘recruiting’ from ethnic minority populations?

What is happening right now is not at all surprising to me, or anyone else who has studied Russia for a while. I have said this before, but it remains an utterly tragic irony that Putin, who is so bent on recreating the USSR/Russian Empire glory days at any cost, is so totally blind to the fact that he's also sending it down exactly the same path to yet another collapse that will set the country and society back for generations. Widespread/forced mobilization in 1917, in order to send more Russian troops to their extremely costly and failing efforts in WWI, contributed to further grievances against Nicholas II and eventually led to the successful revolution/overthrow of the monarchy in October. In other words, it was extremely unpopular last time and I seriously doubt that it's going to be any more popular this time. Besides, if 50,000 actually trained and (somewhat) equipped troops have already been killed, and now they're down to forcibly drafted civilian conscripts with two weeks of training, and over-50 guys in debt who were lured to sign up with the promises of generous bonuses (that, like other promised Russian financial rewards, aren't being paid), against highly motivated Ukrainian troops equipped with NATO weapons... yeah. It's going to be a slaughter, and the only question is whether the Russian public actually starts protesting on a large enough scale, despite the obvious threat of force and repression, to exert actual pressure on the Kremlin and force it to change its mind. But because they're already so committed, and there's not much of a way to be "oops our bad," there's also no way to back out now. I don't know how it'll end, but it isn't going to be good for anyone.

The whole thing is a tragedy on a terrible scale, especially since I don't see any way for Russia as a country to recover from this any time soon. The combined impact of sanctions, global isolation, and all the other (extremely deserved) consequences for this pointless war of old-school genocide and imperialism has undone, and then some, all the progress that Russia has made at integrating into the global community since the fall of the USSR. Because Putin's ego now cannot bear the possibility that he actually loses in Ukraine, after he launched his invasion against every shred of common sense to the contrary, he will act like every Russian tsar of old and throw countless lives of his own people down the drain in a futile attempt to prolong the inevitable. This is also why rabid Western defenders of Russia (a la tankies and their ilk) are just... so... fucking.... stupid. For one thing, if you know literally anything about Russian history, especially post-1917 Soviet history and the ways in which information has been tightly controlled, censored, edited, ideologically distorted, and otherwise used for propaganda purposes, you know that it's absolutely idiotic to trust literally anything the official Russian state and media apparatus says about the war, because it's all lies. Second, the Soviet system was built on the mass repression and (especially in the 1920s and 1930s) mass destruction of its own people, especially those pegged in any way as "traitors" to the revolution. (I suggest Gulag: A History by Anne Applebaum, which goes into this into more depth and casts a horrifying but necessary light on this period.)

As such, the relatively wealthy (by Russian standards) and Europeanized cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg have always existed in a different social universe from the extremely poor, rural, isolated, and persistently underdeveloped Russian regions. So yes, mobilization of Russia's ethnic minorities as cannon fodder, rather than going for the urban city-dwellers directly, also serves Putin's project of building a more racially/ethnically "pure" Russia, and this approach has been supported by Alexander Dugin, the imperialist/fascist Russian ultra-nationalist who is one of Putin's chief advisors. (His daughter was recently killed in a car bomb that was probably meant for Dugin himself.) However, Moscow and St. Petersburg aren't going to escape altogether unscathed either, and the largest protests against mobilization, as has been the case with anti-war protests in Russia overall, have taken place in these two cities. Basically, Putin's (corrupted) social contract with the Russian people is that they let him and the siloviki do what they want and don't try to interfere or remove them from power, and in turn, these actions don't impact on their daily life. But between the slow destruction of the economy via sanctions and now directly forcing ordinary citizens to fight in a deeply unpopular war (all those people who have supported it online are probably likely to change their minds when they're actually asked to die for it), that's fallen apart too.

In short, I see no way for either Russia as a modern nation-state or the Putin regime to survive this. I don't know how long the end will take or what form it will ultimately arrive in, but... yeah, they're all fucked. When you're forcing your own average joes to fight in an imperialist war that's already gone terribly and led to your complete global isolation, then you're in desperation mode. Putin literally only has "I WILL SUPER DEFINITELY USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND IT'S NOT A BLUFF!!!!" left as a bargaining tool, which is just an attempt to frighten everyone into backing off long enough to let him try to make this idiocy work. But as I said, everyone in the Russian army who had even some training is already dead, they're using Soviet-relic weapons, morale is shit, the Ukrainians are (rightfully) extremely motivated and riding off the back of recent victories, and throwing a bunch of untrained conscripts into that meat-grinder is going to result in incredible and incredibly unnecessary bloodshed. There are some groups who seem mostly willing to go at the moment (though again, I'm not sure how long that's going to survive contact with reality), and there are a lot who are totally unwilling (see: the current mad rush to leave Russia by any means possible). The problem goes so deep, on so many levels, that yeah, this isn't a fixable situation anymore. The only thing that remains to be seen is how much damage it does, both to Russia and the world, on the way down. Alas.

#anonymous #ask #russian history #soviet history #russia ukraine war

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dear-mrs-otome · 1 year

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Hello friends. Would you like to meet the antagonist of Faust's route? The dastardly entity responsible for untold pain and misery, for putting our intrepid couple through the metaphorical wringer? The arch-enemy of mankind for centuries??

(spoilers behind the cut)

Here you go! Yersinia pestis, or Y. pestis to its friends, in all its gram-negative, electron scanned, color enhanced glory.

Aww, but Mrs O, you say, it's so cute! Look at its widdle fimbriae waving hewwo! Its pastel pink Lisa Frank inspired palette!

But don't be fooled! This tiny cold-blooded killer is responsible for more deaths than possibly any other infectious agent in the history of humankind - we all know it as the bubonic plague. The Black Death. It's cut down hundreds of millions of people over the course of human history, and it is still a threat today.

Transmitted to humans primarily by the bite of fleas, Y. pestis is a nasty character - without treatment, mortality rates upon infection are 30% - 90%. It sets up shop in a nearby lymph node, gets busy, and the resulting damage causes tissues to die. Victims tend to develop large, swollen, and painful lymph nodes called buboes, which is where the illness gets the name 'bubonic plague'.

One thing to note though, for Faust's route, is that while we generally think of this type of plague as THE plague...there are two other forms an infection with Y. pestis can take. A septicemic infection, where the bacteria enter the blood stream rather than the lymph nodes and which is almost always fatal, and a pneumonic version. This one here is the stuff of epidemiology nightmares. It often is the result of inhaling airborne droplets from another infected individual, and it can spread from person to person very easily unlike the usual bubonic form which requires bodily contact or a bite from an infected flea. It causes fevers, weakness, and violently severe coughing, and without antibiotics is nearly 100% fatal in a frighteningly short period of time - most victims are dead within mere days. Sometimes hours.

The first major recorded outbreak of the bubonic plague was the Plague of Justinian, which began about 1,500 years ago in 541 CE and ravaged the Sasanian and Byzantine empires. It's estimated that the plague resulted in anywhere from 15 to 100 million deaths, up to 40% of the population of Constantinople at the time, and some historians believe people were dying at a rate of 5,000 per day in the capital city.

The second plague epidemic, the one many people are more familiar with, was the one we refer to as the Black Death. This epidemic began raging across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia in the late 1330s, with Europe being hit particularly hard. By the time it was over Europe would see its population cut between 30% and 60%, and the Middle East losing about a third of its people as well. Numbers are difficult to estimate but they range from 75 -200 million dead.

There is, however, a third plague epidemic, although not as well known. In the 18th century the plague made a resurgence in SW China, remaining somewhat localized until the mid 19th century when it spread to Hong Kong and from there globally. There were outbreaks in the United States, India, many African countries, SE Asian countries, Russia, South America, the Caribbean, and most importantly for our story purposes - Europe. The largest outbreak was in Lisbon, but there were many smaller pockets of infection in various cities across the continent.

This was around the time the plague bacterium got its scientific name, Yersinia pestis, because of this man - a secondary character in our vampire love story, albeit with a slightly different name:

Say hello to Alexandre Yersin, a Swiss-French doctor and scientist.

Keenly interested in bacteriology, in 1886 he studied in Paris where Louis Pasteur was doing work in microbiology and worked on antiserum for rabies and antitoxin for diphtheria, two other famous scourges. (Antiserum, in the briefest of explanations, is basically a way to transfer antibodies from someone/something exposed to an infectious agent to a different person, thereby triggering the recipients immune system earlier and more vigorously EDITED TO ADD: this also applies to venom and this is actually how antivenom is made as well!)

In 1894, he was sent to Hong Kong to investigate the plague outbreak and it was here that he identified the bacteria responsible, the one that now bears his name, along with confirmation of its transmission route via rodents. (A Japanese scientist in Hong Kong at the same time, Kitasato Shibasaburou, independently identified the bacterium almost simultaneously as well, but because his documentations were not as clear it is Yersin who is generally credited with the initial find)

Yersin spent the next few years continuing his studies of the plague, traveling back to Paris in 1895 to develop the first anti-plague serum. It was the work of scientists like him, and so many others at this time, that paved the way for modern medicine and a path towards eradicating the diseases that have held us in their skeletal grip for so much of mankind's history.

...And perhaps, in the world of Ikevamp, that path owes just a little bit to a certain bespectacled German priest.

#ikemen vampire #ikevamp #ikevamp faust #spoiler #spoilers #ikemen vampire spoilers #ikevamp spoilers #how to tag this?#lore? background? idek #maybe just 'stuff i wish i'd known the first time i read his route'

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aiyanacatori · 1 year

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The following is an expanded thought/rant on Nyo!America. I made a shorter version yesterday but wanted to expand it.

Warnings: mentions of neglect, abuse, period typical attitudes and behaviours, colonization, imperialization, civil war, Spain, WW1, Great Depression, WW2, Cold War, the '90s and early 2000s. Basically, if it was a major event I touch on it through the lens of the possibility of Nyo!America.

The fun idea about nyo!America existing in the same universe where it is basically the same but it’s Nyo!America is just how much would have changed for her. Personally her.

In general Alfred was able to do what he wanted, frolicking in the fields of the Midwest and avoid work? Yeah, he could do that. Go up and visit his brother for weeks at a time? Just leave a note. Start an international incident by punching Russia? That can be resolved. Have a sloppy public image? What are you going to do? Oppose him? Alfred can do more or less whatever he wants. Sure he struggles and I'm not invalidating those struggles, but it is a different font of struggle.

Nyo!America [whatever name you want to use because all names are cool and I have my own headcannon names.] Would have to work constantly to be taken seriously and to be seen as an equal. As a colony she was mostly neglected as a second thought by the English/British government. She would be constantly have been having to prove herself and be self sufficient. England would have not seen her as a threat. After all she was a small female nation. What could she possibly do against the British? When starting the revolution no one would believe in her. There were so few female nations to begin with in a high standing. The ones in Europe were under the flag of someone else. Everyone thought it was going to fail. Than the Americans started proving that they could do it, nations started supporting her. She got her freedom, but there was still the feeling that this would just be a shirt term thing. She would have to keep proving herself. After all she just proved them wrong already, they were going to be wrong about everything else.

The Articles of Confederation didn't work, and people thought this was going to be the end. This is just another point as to why female nations couldn't do all that much, and why, historically, many empires were better off with male representatives.

Nyo!America pushes on. Most of her bosses doubt her ability to some level. Even the ones who don't treat her poorly still doubt her. She can't take breaks, and she can't skip town for weeks because it will be held against her. She's doing paperwork, meeting and greeting officials, reading books and taking classes from paid tutors. She has to be because if she doesn't then they will find something wrong with her.

Her manners are top-notch, she learns the customs of other places, and learns greeting and pleasantries in other languages. She has to be the best at everything. So what if she skipped sleep here or there? She still has work to do.

Nyo!America would in a bit of spare time get to know her people. If she can find out where things within her country are lacking she can try to help. These are the people she represents and she wants to be the best place for all of them. She knows all of the flaws within her nation like the stories engraved in her skull, but she has to keep trying. Where she can try and help with things she does, but no one will take her seriously.

She learns early that most of these people won't take her skill and knowledge seriously unless she forces them. Everyone has something to keep and no one expects a lady like her to figure them out or use them against them. She does. So what if she has to blackmail a bit, so what if she had to threaten a couple of big-headed men who won't take her knowledge until given no other choice. So what if she has to use some underhanded ways that would make some weary. She is doing everything she can.

The Mexican-American war. She didn't want to fight Mexico. She was the only other female nation she knew. They had each other’s backs in the world of male nations. There was still a war and she had to prove herself. She didn't have the standing to oppose it all. She lost her friendship with Mexico. She hated the people in charge for a long while, but she couldn't say anything. How could she when they were waiting for a chance to throw her out? She writes essays of apologies to Mexico for years. For decades. They don't get along all the time, but they both understand the pain. They might not be buddy buddies, but they were still two female nations in the sea of male nations. If push came to shove they personally have each other’s backs.

The nation is divided and America was to kneel over in pain. She wants to lie in bed and scream, cry, and shut down. She can't. They won't take her pain seriously. She's just a woman. She stands up and fights. She fights for her people, the ones who can get their long-needed freedom. She's still in pain, but she will smile through it all if it means more of her people will be free.

There are still problems, still, people who deny rights, but she is doing the damn best she can to help.

She's a regional power, her wealth is growing and flocks of people are moving. She is proving them all wrong. The old world still scoffs at her and isn't taking her seriously. Some are mad at her for 'taking' their people. Not all of them. Some of them are starting to see the writing on the wall. Their respect for her is growing. She broke the glass ceiling just for it to be replaced by another. She will keep working at trying. She can't stop now. When she shows up for diplomatic meetings they still are looking for something to criticize her about. Maybe her clothes are a trend out of date, her accent is slightly off, she doesn't remember a custom. She keeps up. It's becoming harder to find something to hate about her with. She stays out of their buisness they stay out of hers.

Her country has 'territories' now. Hawai'i, Cuba, Philippines. She didn't really want them. She just wanted the Europeans out of the new world. She was done playing games with them. She was done sucking up all the time, she was in a position to demand them to leave. She went to war with Spain. One of the most feared nations in the new world. The one who burned it all to the ground. The one who had erased cultures and lives like the dust of a mantelpiece. ('Annoying and in the way) she won. But then instead of giving freedom her government took territories. Wasn't enough. The friends she made were now her colonies just with a more pleasant-sounding name.

She tries but nothing is being done.

Europe starts another war. She rolls her eyes and goes back to her stack of work. Europe I always at war. It was at war before she was around, has been at war before and will continue to be. She doesn't really have a side to pick. There are a lot of immigrants from all over so picking a side for yet another European conflict feels stupid.

Europe's war has been making her money. She has the biggest economy. People are being mowed down by machine guns. The telegram comes. The Germans were trying to start a new front in North America. A repeat of the Mexican-American war. Her country goes to war and she ships out with her soldiers to Europe.

The war is over and she hated every moment of it. She sent letters back to Mexico because she needed to talk to someone. They still don't get along all the time but she doesn't think she could ever fight a war against Mexico ever again.

Europe is being greedy again. They are creating a future problem with how they are handling this. Of course who would listen to her? Apparently not Europe who still thinks they are knowing wise for having a couple centuries of existence over her. She tries to help but there is only so much that they can do.

She allows herself a break. Finally, a chance to unwind. Of course, the government does something stupid. Banning alcohol is going to cause more problems than it fixes. She does participate in some underground activity because the government is stupid sometimes(a lot) and she just came back from trench war hell.

The economy crashes and the world seems to be going to hell. Her people are suffering and the news from Europe looks dark. Why are they ignoring it? She doesn't say anything. She has more problems than worrying about Europe.

War. Europe is at war again. She saw this coming. She wrote to England and France about it when she saw it. They disregard her again. Japan attacked and this war seems darker than before.

Hypocrites. All of them are hypocrites. Her government, England's, France's. All of them. She could list every time another government pulled some of this. It was in a different century, in a different time. It's what her brother said. She rolls her eyes but moves on, she has Russia to deal with now.

America will be less likely to admit this now, but she really only wanted to be left alone. Maybe not her government, but she wanted to be left alone. Going tor to toe with Russia was exhausting. She was paranoid and couldn't take any chances. If she failed no one would believe in her again. She worked hard for her spot in the world and she would be damned if that got taken away. Her officials don't like her new ideas, and don't like how she was siding either those who wanted to end the conflicts in the cold war. They saw that as weak. Just another womanly feature to belittle. She just rolls her eyes. She has power and the ability to speak back now.

Of course, every day is new paperwork, more issues, more help me here, stop helping me. Pay back money. She is trying. Trying. Trying. Trying.

She is the centre of it all and yet they still hold up their noses in their centuries-old bigotry of superiority. She's got this.

----

She mellows out. She calms down because she can afford to. Not all the time, but she can. Slowly some of them forget just how powerful she is. That's fine. They can forget. She knows how powerful she is. She knows where she Excels. She won't lord over anyone, because why should she? She worked hard for where she is, and she broke all expectations and then some.

-/\-/\-

Nyo!America at least in my eyes would be the perfect version of America. It was such a missed opportunity. Truly unfortunate that few others see it. Oh well, rather are missing out on a cool story.

#hetalia #nyotalia #aph america #aph nyo america #aph nyo!america #hws america #hws nyo!america #APH #HWS #historical hetalia #The missed oppertunities #Hetalia AU #This is now my cannon #you can take it from my cold dead body #the Hetalia woman were not given the right treatment #in this house we given them respect

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aristotels · 2 years

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im gonna go ahead and say it.

discrimination of slavs isnt xenophobia. its straight up racism.

there’s apparently a character in craig of the creek who is slavic and - the joke is - that he’s a dumb slav! ha ha ha! speaks about himself in third person and is a bully, which is so slavic, isn’t it? its hilarious. especially when you consider the history of slavic people, which i’ll shortly summarize here, with some quotes.

xenophobia is thinking someones national costumes are funny, or that their dish smells foul. in slav case, its different. slavs have always been racially discriminated, murdered, enslaved, and whichever history period you take, youll see it.

in fact, its so prominent that word “slave” literally comes from “Slav”. you can read about the root of the word here: American Heritage Dictionary

whatever period you take, you’ll find discrimination of slavic people. especially in nazis and fascists cases. prosecuted on the same level as jews, back then. the difference was that slavs were “too stupid and barbaric” and preys to “masonic jew machine”, and that they needed to be exterminated. here’s more text from wikipedia.

Count Galeazzo Ciano, Mussolini's son in law, and the Foreign Minister of Fascist Italy who was later executed by Mussolini, wrote the following entry in his diary:[9]

Vidussoni comes to see me. After having spoken about a few casual things, he makes some political allusions and announces savage plans against the Slovenes. He wants to kill them all. I take the liberty of observing that there are a million of them. "That does not matter," he answers firmly.

(slovenes in this case not refering to only slovenes from slovenia, but also all slavs.)

one of fascists politics was also forcefully italianizing croatian names during 1920es when a part of croatia was under italian control. yes. people went to prison for not wanting to change their names. ive heard plenty of stories about grandfathers from older people being taken away to camps because they refused to change their names. during that reign, hundreds of croatian schools were shut, and teaching our language was forbidden.

“When dealing with such a race as Slavic – inferior and barbaric – we must not pursue the carrot, but the stick policy. We should not be afraid of new victims. The Italian border should run across the Brenner Pass, Monte Nevoso and the Dinaric Alps. I would say we can easily sacrifice 500,000 barbaric Slavs for 50,000 Italians.”

—

Benito Mussolini

nazis had exactly the same stance, with policy of exterminating slavs so germans could inhabit the slavic lands.

from wikipedia:

The Nazis' policy towards Slavs was to exterminate or enslave the vast majority of the Slavic population and repopulate their lands with millions of ethnic Germans and other Germanic peoples.

of course, slav people were also targeted by KKK:

In Canada, many xenophobic white supremacists were deeply tied to their nation's "Anglo-Saxon" culture, specifically from the early 1900s to the end of World War II. The Ku Klux Klan in Canada was prominent in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta, both of which have a relatively high Eastern European ethnic population. Immigrants from Ukraine, Russia and Poland were frequently denounced and targeted.[10]

During World War I, thousands of Ukrainian Canadians were seen as "enemy aliens" as Canadian nativists saw them as a "threat" to Canada's Western European heritage. Due to this, many of them were interned in concentration camps. There was constant discrimination towards Ukrainians who recently immigrated from the Austro-Hungarian Empire.[11]

and even though this is too far away for the western europe to understand, macedonians in greece are still struggling today, with greece not recognizing macedonia as an independent state.

Today, the Greek state does not recognize its ethnic Macedonian and other Slavic minorities, claiming that they do not exist, with Greece therefore having the right not to grant them any of the rights that are guaranteed to them by human rights treaties.

yes. you read that correctly. greece does not recognize macedonian or other slav minorities and can choose not to grant them any rights guaranteed by human rights treaties. read that again. and again.

slavic people are rarely shown in media. because we are not important enough. to the west, we are some silly little people living in the balkans and arguing with each other and going to wars over silly things. the only times slavs appear in media is russian spies or other villains. which you know; slavs are a much more diverse race than just “russia”. and in fact, russia has controlled and exploited many slavic countries.

and when we ARE shown in media, its not much better. i have never seen a proper slavic representation. in literally all the cases of slavs appearing on the screen, they are illiterate, stupid, and cannot speak language.

casa de papel. viktor krum.

craig of the creek.

in every single piece of media ive ever seen, slavs have been portrayed as barbaric idiots. the way weve been portrayed for hundreds of years. in fact, craig goes so far to basically show a slav person being a lapdog to a white american. with the character speaking in third person and being dumb.

we dont fucking speak in the third person. it doesnt make sense in our language. its a racist and stereotypical portrayal, and the best thing is that nobody seems to care. the media has made good progress with stopping to make fun of black, latino and asian people, but you know who you can always make fun of?

slavs.

because you know.

its just some silly little dumb people.

living far away.

and not a race which has historically been undermined, hunted, placed in concentration camps, attacked, and enslaved.

im getting kinda fucking sick of it. yall should reblog this.

#slavophobia #slavic #racism

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mariacallous · 5 months

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Scrolling through social media can feel like a nightmare these days. You’re reading about the horrors of the Israel-Hamas war, and then you’re reading about the horrors of the war between Ukraine and Russia. You’re learning about the latest devastating climate news. Democracy is under threat in America. It can feel like everything is falling apart.

This, of course, can have a significant effect on your mental health. You start to feel overwhelmed. Not only are you dealing with the regular stresses of daily life—your job, your finances, your personal relationships—but now you’re thinking about the most serious problems the world is facing. Social media algorithms tend to elevate the most contentious content, so these feeds are showing you things that will elicit a visceral response—they’re putting the doom in doomscrolling.

According to psychology experts, this has become a serious problem. People are ingesting too much negative news, and it’s not only affecting them personally but impacting society at large. People can handle some bad news, but what if it’s a lot of bad news? And what if a lot of people are doing this while trying to function in the world together?

Matthew Price, a professor of psychological science at the University of Vermont, says that stress is cumulative. One thing starts stressing you out, and then it’s another thing, and then one more thing. Suddenly, you’re spiraling. He says the stress can continue throughout your day even when you’ve stopped bingeing on bad news on social media.

“Some of the work that we have done has shown it definitely increases your stress in the moment. It could increase your stress throughout the rest of your day,” Price says. “When you doomscroll, it gets much easier to reach your limit than I think you would if you weren’t doing that.”

Price says ingesting a lot of negative news can cause anxiety and depression, at least for some period of time, but it’s especially likely to “exacerbate” anxiety, depression, and PTSD in people who have a history of experiencing those conditions. He says that people often doomscroll because there’s something bad going on and they want to find a way to fix the problem they’re reading about.

“When we’re doomscrolling, we’re kind of looking for the resolution to the issue. Read some more posts. Read some more articles. If I get more information, then maybe I’ll understand the problem,” Price says, describing the doomscrolling cycle.

This doesn’t just affect individuals. When a lot of people are experiencing the stress of the news of the world at once, it can make them more likely to “snap at each other,” Price says. We may not realize it, but the reason that guy was rude to you at Starbucks might be that he has read too many damn scary news articles.

“When you have multiple people who are struggling, they’re going to have a harder time communicating together,” says Bethany Teachman, a professor of psychology at the University of Virginia. “We have to think of these things from a systemic perspective or we’re not going to be very effective at making change.”

Teachman says doomscrolling can “skew our sense of what’s going on.” You start to think everything and everyone is the worst, but it’s quite possible little of it is actually affecting you personally. Perhaps terrible news from around the world would not be changing your daily life unless you were reading about it, and it’s important to recognize when it��s time to log off.

“We do need to stay informed, but when we move past informed to feeling overwhelmed and often paralyzed and feeling like we’re under constant threat, it’s clearly crossed over into a negative place,” Teachman says. “I think part of what’s happening is most of the news stories tend to be negative, so it gives us this sense that we’re in a constant state of danger and that we are vulnerable and the world is a very dangerous place.”

In terms of solutions, Teachman says people need to limit their exposure to social media and the news to keep their lives balanced. It’s OK to read some news to stay informed and check out what people are saying online, but it can get unhealthy if you overdo it. Once you’ve read enough to know what’s going on, think of other things that you enjoy doing and that help you maintain your mental health, she says.

“It’s not about ‘this is a bad thing and this is a good thing.’ It’s about how you engage with it and how it fits in with the rest of what’s going on in your life,” Teachman says. “How are you living the rest of your life, and what are the impacts on that?”

If you’re feeling overwhelmed by the news, Teachman says it’s important to consider what your values are and how you can act on those values in your daily life. Think about who you want to be and what you want to accomplish. This can focus your mind when you’re feeling overwhelmed.

If you’re not feeling like you’re who you want to be right now, she says, think of small things you can do to get closer to becoming that person. Think about the things you can do to get closer to that goal so you’re more capable of handling stress and feeling mentally well, and about the things you can do to help solve the problems you’re worried about.

“Take a step back from your social media. Take a step back from your phone. Take a step back from the stressors unless the thing that’s stressful is imminently going to harm you,” Price says. “And get more local.”

Price says that acting locally on issues you’re concerned about can help you maintain your mental health because otherwise things can feel too far away and too difficult to solve. Maybe you can’t end a war, but perhaps you can help some people in your community or get your community to do something that helps a bigger problem.

People are overwhelmed. They’re tired. Sometimes you want to just curl up in a ball and pull your comforter over your head. Teachman says that’s the worst thing you can do for your mental health. It’s important to connect with people to maintain your mental health, she says, and sometimes you can connect with people and be part of the solution to a problem at the same time.

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wildlarrydreams · 2 years

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These past days I've seen a lot of posts regarding the Ukrainian win in Eurovision. As a Ukrainian, I want to share my feelings about it.

I'm so thankful to every European who sent their vote for Ukraine. For the Ukrainian people, this win is not that simple. Honestly, we don't care about hosting next year, the significant effect of this was to let Ukraine situation to be heard.

We have never expected to be involved in a war in 21 century and with neighbouring countries. The loss of the people from Northern, Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine can't be described.

As well this let us show our culture. Starting from the early period till now, Ukrainian culture has been suppressed by Russian. Our ancestors witnessed a lot of prohibition, labour and even slavery. The song that entirely is Ukrainian and wins ESC — what a moment to be proud of our culture and language.

The last thing is the comments of Spanish people on Twitter. The threats you sent, just because UKRAINE HAS WON BECAUSE OF THE WAR IF SPAIN WERE IN THE WAR, WE WOULD ALSO WIN. Please, Ukraine is willing to let you take not just the trophy but also the Russian army and the war zone.

Today is 82 days of the war. Some people from Europe need to understand that they have their parties, chance to wake up every morning and enjoy the day because of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and volunteers, who are shading their blood, sweat and tears. Russia is the country from which you don't know what to expect next. They started from Ukraine, but next time it may be someone else. Reading their news and threats towards Western countries shouldn't simply leave you. I hope that some of you understand that and never have a chance to witness what it feels like to live in hell, where air alarms almost every single day and you can be shoot by missile any moment of your life.

#eurovision #eurovison song contest #ukraine #esc 2022 #eurovision 2022 #eurovision ukraine

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nicklloydnow · 5 months

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“This is not an all-out war but a decentralized one with seemingly unconnected fronts that span across continents. It is fought in a hybrid style, meaning both with tanks and planes and with disinformation campaigns, political interference, and cyberwarfare. The strategy blurs the lines between war and peace and combatants and civilians. It puts a lot of extra fog in the "fog of war."

China, Russia, and Iran disagree on many things, but they all have the same goal: ridding their regions of U.S. influence and creating a multipolar global governance system and Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow know that U.S. political and military might is the only force preventing them from imposing their will on their neighbors.

(…)

When it comes to this war, the United States is asleep at the wheel. U.S. strategy has been about preparation for a large conventional war, containment, and weak deterrence. Washington has been pitifully absent in the irregular warfare field. There are almost no punishments or accountability—besides ineffective sanctions—for the nations that attack us.

(…)

Should the Biden administration continue its ineffective course, these countries will only be emboldened. Should support for Israel or Ukraine fail, China will be more likely to invade Taiwan. Deterrence is a great strategy but only works when the other side believes you will carry out your threats. You must establish that understanding by holding your enemies accountable for moves they take against you.

(…)

The Biden administration's support for Ukraine has been a rare show of force that has sent a strong message to the world. But it isn't enough. The U.S. foreign policy establishment must recognize the hybrid war being waged against it and show up on the irregular field of battle. Like it or not, the United States is the guarantor of stability in the world. By retreating from its responsibilities, the only thing Washington is guaranteeing is dark times ahead.”

“The list encompasses not just the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, but hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, Serbian military measures against Kosovo, fighting in Eastern Congo, complete turmoil in Sudan since April, and a fragile cease-fire in Tigray that Ethiopia seems poised to break at any time. Syria and Yemen have not exactly been quiet during this period, and gangs and cartels continuously menace governments, including those in Haiti and Mexico. All of this comes on top of the prospect of a major war breaking out in East Asia, such as by China invading the island of Taiwan.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which has been tracking wars globally since 1945, identified 2022 and 2023 as the most conflictual years in the world since the end of the Cold War. Back in January 2023, before many of the above conflicts erupted, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed sounded the alarm, noting that peace “is now under grave threat” across the globe. The seeming cascade of conflict gives rise to one obvious question: Why?

(…)

The first explanation holds that the cascade is in the eye of the beholder. People are too easily “fooled by randomness,” the essayist and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb admonished in his 2001 book of the same title, seeking intentional explanations for what may be coincidence. The flurry of armed confrontations could be just such a phenomenon, concealing no deeper meaning: Some of the frozen conflicts, for instance, were due for flare-ups or had gone quiet only recently. Today’s volume of wars, in other words, should be viewed as little more than a series of unfortunate events that could recur or worsen at any time.

(…)

Although coincidences certainly do occur, the current onslaught happens to be taking place at a time of big changes in the international system. The era of Pax Americana appears to be over, and the United States is no longer poised to police the world. Not that Pax Americana was necessarily so peaceful. The 1990s were especially disputatious; civil wars arose on multiple continents, as did major wars in Europe and Africa. But the United States attempted to solve and contain many potential conflicts: Washington led a coalition to oust Saddam Hussein’s Iraq from Kuwait, facilitated the Oslo Process to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, fostered improved relations between North and South Korea, and encouraged the growth of peacekeeping operations around the globe. Even following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States, the invasion of Afghanistan was supported by many in the international community as necessary to remove a pariah regime and enable a long-troubled nation to rebuild. War was not over, but humanity seemed closer than ever to finding a formula for lasting peace.

Over the subsequent decades, the United States seemed to fritter away both the goodwill needed to support such efforts and the means to carry them out. By the early 2010s, the United States was bogged down in two losing wars and recovering from a financial crisis. The world, too, had changed, with power ebbing from Washington’s singular pole to multiple emerging powers. As then–Secretary of State John Kerry remarked in a 2013 interview in The Atlantic, “We live in a world more like the 18th and 19th centuries.” And a multipolar world, where several great powers jostle for advantage on the global stage, harbors the potential for more conflicts, large and small.

Specifically, China has emerged as a great power seeking to influence the international system, whether by leveraging the economic allure of its Belt and Road Initiative or by militarily revising the status quo within its region. Russia does not have China’s economic muscle, but it, too, seeks to dominate its region, establish itself as an influential global player, and revise the international order. Whether Russia or China is yet on an economic or military par with the United States hardly matters. Both are strong enough to challenge the U.S.-led international order by leveraging the revisionist sentiment they share with countries throughout the global South.

(…)

Suppose, though, that the proliferation of wars doesn’t have a systemic cause, but an entirely particular one. That the world owes its present state of unrest directly to Russia—and, even more specifically, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 and its decision to continue fighting since.

The war in Ukraine, the largest war in Europe since World War II and one poised to continue well past 2024, is absorbing the attention of international actors who otherwise would have been well positioned to prevent any of the abovementioned crises from escalating. This case is not the same as the great-power distraction, in which the world’s most powerful states simply fail to focus on emerging crises. Rather, the great powers lack the diplomatic and military capacity to respond to conflicts beyond Ukraine—and other actors know it.

(…)

These three explanations—coincidence, multipolarity, Russia’s war in Ukraine—are not mutually exclusive. If anything, they are interrelated, as wars are complex events; the decline of U.S. hegemony contributes to growing multipolarity; and great-power competition has surely fed Russia’s aggression and the West’s response. The consequence is that others are caught in the great-power cross fire or will seek to start fires of their own. Even if none of these wars rise to the level of a third world war, they will be devastating all the same. We do not need to be in a world war to be in a world at war.

Wars were already a persistent feature of the international system. But they were not widespread. War was always happening somewhere, in other words, but war was not happening everywhere. The above dynamics could change that tendency. The prevalence of war, not just its persistence, could now be our future.”

#world war 3 #wwiii #russia #ukraine #israel #hamas #iran #china #taiwan #deterrence

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