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chirpsythismorning · 1 year

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I think what really puts into perspective the likelihood of ST5 premiering in 2025 (I’m gonna predict March 21st for fun), is that a year from now is just barely Summer 2024, and yet as of now, they have not even started filming.

Are fans really expecting them to have season 5 filmed, fully prepped with marketing and promo ready, with everything ready to be released within one year from now (roughly speaking, give or take a couple months)?

In all honesty it's very much the norm for Stranger Things' to have promo leading up to an upcoming season last for months. And I'm not talking like 3-5 months I'm talking a year+.

This isn't like s1 where they put out a trailer and a release date and some low budget marketing roll out on social media, which is something they do for every new Netflix show. This is a $35 million + budget per episode series and thats just to budget for the literal episodes... There are dozens of partnerships they have going on with merchandise and things like that which are discussed and planned for months/years. There are music rights negotiations which go on for months upon years. Shit, post-production has the capacity to take, at the very least half of the time it takes to film, and in some cases as much time or even more. This shit takes time!!!

The build up to a new season is so huge, that each month leading up to it, there are different things dropping, creating the hype that guarantees millions of fans engagement for a long time.

Like 1 year up to the 6 months before the release, promo starts heating up officially. The main accounts for the show will start posting stuff, initially it'll be cryptic using old footage to kind of recap the characters and get us refreshed on where we left off. This time could have some really awesome surprises, but it's mostly casual. If we're lucky we can count on Atlanta filming paparazzi bc those people are insufferable...

6 months up to the one month mark is when it starts to get more real. At this time we're likely to get an episode list announcement, along with sneak peeks and teasers that are quite short, being that they're still likely in the editing process when they are releasing these so it's very much in part them trying to tide us over and keep us interested.

The final 3 months leading up to it is when it gets REAL real. This is at the latest when we'll get a release date announcement, but that's a worst case scenario. I feel like it took so long for them to announce s4, and not until like Feb 2022 bc they wanted to be certain certain. And that could apply to s5 as well. The state of the world isn't like awesome I would say... Look what happened last time? Like it sucks to be the person to say that but I think also considering delays in general, for any reason are a possibility, is also what contributes to my open mindedness about an early 2025 release.

And so based on what we should be expecting for marketing, that means that assuming s5 would somehow premiere in summer 2024, means we are already close to the one year mark, which means promo should be ramping up right now, with literal content to share? And yet we have nothing filmed...?

A lot of people have this idea that s5 is going to take as much time to film as s1 took, which is just not the case. Not saying it will take as long as s4 took, however it's still going to take a while. One of the main factors for this is an in demand cast with conflicting schedules. In a perfect world, everyone would be available all the time throughout the entire production run. Instead what you have is certain actors not available at this time, and so you have to overlap those that need scenes together and schedule according to all of that. And so even if it wouldn't take more than 7 months to film literally, adding another 4+ months might be necessary to accommodate everyones schedules so that they can have these A/B list actors be able to film scenes together.

And then there’s editing and VFX to account for, happening during filming yes, but also with them needing months to focus on AFTER filming is complete. S5 is arguably going to have more VFX than any other season, as most of the season is expected to be surrounded by UD conditions and with the final battle being pretty epic with a 3 headed dragon potentially. Editing is more likely to be 7+ months post filming AT LEAST, vs. like the 4 or less, which is what I think everyone is imagining and telling themselves.

This is also the last season and so they obviously want to focus on the quality, not their ability to churn it out as fast as possible. Rushing for a quick release is just setting themselves up to flop.

The story is over forever after this (excluding spin-off prospects). It would make sense for them to give themselves the wiggle room to make it perfect (the stakes are so fucking high you guys), as opposed to rushing the entire time just to have it release as early as possible.

This also reminds me of what Noah said when asked about s5 premiering in 2024, where he basically just deflected and said that they want to focus on quality… essentially hinting at the fact that it’ll probably not be soon as we’re expecting, but we’re better off for it bc it gives them time to ensure it's the best that it can be and also is just realistic in terms of considering potential unplanned delays.

And then there are the strike implications. While I think the ST production is lucky in that they wouldn't be impacted as much as other productions, that doesn't mean the solidarity won't impact other parts of the production beyond just the writers. This is an industry where people are extremely overworked and underpaid, where a strike could be on the horizon at any moment. And we’re out here telling them hey i know the conditions are horse shit, but I'm gonna need you to step it up and experience even worse conditions bc I need s5 asap... which is just, it’s asking too much if I’m being honest.

Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade here. I know it sucks hearing that it could be another 1 year and 10 months. But lets be serious right now.

All the action that happens in the fandom, building up to the release is arguably just as exciting as the actual premiere and I think we overlook that. Again, once it premieres, it's over. So being so hellbent that it comes as soon as possible, is built on this idea that getting it is the only worthwhile part of this experience, which couldn't be further from the truth. Hiatus and all of the activity that happens during that time is what makes this experience so unique and without it, none of us would be here.

I think realistically, the timeline for s5 production is likely to look something like filming taking place from May 2023-Feb 2024 (giving them AT LEAST 10 months, but if you ask me srs i think it'll take 12...). We should get an announcement post from the official Netflix/ST social media accounts the very day filming starts.

As time passes and they're filming more and more, we will start to get teasers and sneak peaks from the little bit they have filmed from the earlier episodes in the season. Technically they can't spoil that later stuff too much in promotion, so it does work out for us in that sense.

But in all honesty, well planned out and detailed promo is likely to not start getting official until this fall when they’ll actually have at least (hopefully) over half of s5 filmed, and be planning ahead plenty in advance so all of the promo leading up to the release is well thought out.

I won’t rule out Fall 2024. But there are no Friday dates in fall 2024 that ring any bells to me as being the perfect day? Maybe Winter 2024? Or like January/Feb 2025?

The problem is Netflix loves ST for their summers... But summer 2024 is too soon and Summer 2025 is too late imo...

So what it will likely come down to is them trying to be realisitic about their options, and how to ideally get it to match with the setting of the show, which is something they have tried to do with s2-3, but couldn't in s4 (for obvious reasons), and so I definitely see them thinking ahead to try to bring back that approach for s5 if they are able to.

So filming, best case scenario, ends maybe Jan-Feb 2024. If we give them at least 7 months, which is still arguably rushing to me, that lands them in September 2024.

BUT if they were smart they would be realistic and just plan for late 2024/early 2025 so that they don't have to keep delaying... also why they haven't announced a date/year... if it was for certain going to be 2024, they would say it. But they aren't. That alone should tell us they are not willing to make that commitment bc it's not something that can be made when there are so many impromptu factors at play.

I imagine a scenario though honestly, where it takes them a year (12 months to film), so they won't be done until May 2024, which means that they would have until January 2025 to edit with 7 months for that strictly. And that just honestly feels realistic to me to look at instead of hoping that everything just is swift and fast as possible.

Not to mention ST5 2025 just fits.

However, I don't see anything wrong with hoping for late 2024, since as of now I think it is still possible.

But I also think, keeping all of the factors in mind, most notably a potential strike and also them ensuring quality over a speedy release, I think 2025 is something people should also be prepared for as a possibility.

The good news is that we'll know eventually as s5 starts filming and as time goes on.

If filming is complete in 2023 then we could definitely hope for a fall 2024 release. If filming isn't complete officially until early/mid 2024, then pack up your duffel bags bc we're going back to spring break...

#byler #stranger things #stranger things 5 #st promo #st5 preditioncs #i had this in my drafts but bc that rumor from that source #i felt the need to post this #i always get passive aggressive asks when i try to explain why it would be valid for a 2025 release #and i get that people just want it #like i do too #but lets remember we want this shit to be epic crazy good #and we want them to be able to sleep and eat and live not on god awful conditions to succeed in that #marketing is going to go crazy for the final season also #it's going to be like every other season combined #and there there's the potential implications of a 2 vol release....#hell we could get vol 1 in 2024 and vol 2 and 2025 #idk how they'd do it #but 2 vol seems like a major possiblity #and i personally enjoyed getting to theorize in between #i'm sure netflix enjoyed having hype for a show last over 5 months instead of 1-2 at most #it would make sense for them to what to apply that model for the last season of their most memorable series in history...#so that's another thing to consider in terms of release possibilities #AND THEN LETS NOT FORGET ABOUT THE MOVIE DNA BOARD LIKE COME ON WE WILL BE SWAMPED WHEN THAT DROPS #AND THAT COULD LITERALLY DROP WITH IN THE NEXT MONTH TO 5 MONTHS OR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN?#or not at all...#we are not ready regardless of thinking we are #which is the best part honestly #we are not ready!!!

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chirpsythismorning · 1 year

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Personal opinion; I think the Duffers are doing a mistake by not promoting Byler as a possibility at all. I know some people are gonna say that it is because they are trying to keep Byler as a plot twist, but still, they can promote the idea of it without going too far.

We like to say that how the 'ElMikeWill' love triangle is not acknowledged as a love triangle by the GA, Melvins or other fans, but honestly? It is not that it is not acknowledged as a 'love triangle' by non-Bylers, it is that it is not acknowledged as a love triangle by the show, creators or writers. It is not promoted like how Stancy versus Jancy thing is promoted. Mike’s not conditioned as having to choose between El and Will. Honestly, If I were to make my audience get warm for the idea of Byler potentially happening, i would put content regarding it, would try to portray the situation as a love triangle, like ‘Which person Mike is going to choose?’ questions would be on media outlets. Remember that the Duffers still refer to Stancy versus Jancy thing as a love triangle, they portray it as a situation where Nancy has to choose someone, media outlets talk about the love triangle aspect. Whereas for Mike and El and Will, there isn’t something like that. Mike’s not conditioned as being in a love triangle where he has to choose. Will’s situation only gets referred to as relatable and him getting acceptance. They portray Mike and El as a legitimate couple without any question, etc. That’s not exactly portraying as ‘love triangle’ situation here.

Take this as a criticism towards how they're approaching the situation, I guess. Now, I do not know what they're going to do once the trailers or filming or promoting whatever start in a couple of months. But so far, I think they just... are doing nothing and it is not good, imho.

This is all fair!

I do believe that they're going to have no choice but to be more obvious about byler endgame in promo for s5. And so I agree that in large part how I feel about their approach thus far does rely on what is still yet to come.

Personally, I think it's going to be impossible to throw in happy couple milkvan moments, seeing as there wont be any scenes like that. Not saying they wouldn't trick fans with simple fast shots of them side by side dispersed throughout a teaser or something, I just don't think they're going to go all out with trying to convince the audience that Mike and El are romantic in official s5 promo.

S5 is going to be a point when baiting milkvan romantically would be an odd choice if they want people to fully accept byler romantically. So, I do sense that a shift will happen as s5 gets closer and when promo really starts ramping up.

We already technically saw that with s4, where they didn't really prioritize Mike/El in official posters, like at all? We got couple posters for Netflix covers with Jopper/Lumax/Byler, while the one featuring El was her on her own? Then there's the Cali poster with Mike looking at Will, his feet pointing towards him, literally detouring in Will's direction like that meme... Them willing to be that obvious for s4 posters tells me that the s5 posters are going to be even more obvious. If you think about it, it honestly would have been weird to have no byler in s4 posters, same with no byler in s5 posters, only for them to end up together? Thus far that has not been the case tho bc s4 was unhinged as hell, and so it's likely s5 is going to be the same and then some.

That's the other thing about promo with like official posters and trailers, in that they hold a lot more weight to representing the deeper message of the story, especially when the show is complete with all five parts making it like a whole experience. The posters for every season will be highly regarded as holding the truth to what was truly going on. While I do get being frustrated that they don't post enough about it casually on social media, it's just that, tbh no ones going to be using simple social media posts as hard evidence from way back in the day at the end of all this (it's more just a fun addition to the real shit). They're going to be looking at official promotion that was very intricately planned out with easter eggs and very specific foreshadowing in mind, ie. official posters, teasers, and trailers.

When it comes to the whole love triangle thing, with byler paralleling to jancy and milkvan paralleling to stancy, I think there are a couple reasons why they themselves can't acknowledge those parallels.

While I recognize those parallels, and I do agree on a basic level it's all intentionally paralleled deliberately in certain aspects, I still don't necessarily think these love triangles are intended to be seen as identical situations. They have different stakes and completely different circumstances, beyond the most basic similarities between them in that we're also dealing with 2 sets of siblings that are quite similar in character and so no duh they parallel each other.

The main thing that I think gets overlooked is that byler is meant to be a sort of callback to all of the queer-baiting in media that has led us to this point. The only reason they made the choice to go about byler this way, was to subvert a very deep rooted expectation that a boy and boy ending up together on a mainstream show cannot happen. They are feeding this expectation to an audience that is happy to abide by this norm, which is what is going to make the surprise of the boy and boy ending up together, and the fact that this time the gays were actually right instead of wrong for the #1,239 time, just makes it all the more epic.

While they are attempting to follow that same pattern of every other show on the surface, they are hiding the truth in the details. This means that they can get away with quote--unquote 'queer-baiting' within the show itself by making it arguably obvious Mike returns Will's feelings, but because they never acknowledge that it's happening at all outside of the show blatantly, they're technically not queer-baiting.

Them not outright acknowledging the love triangle going on, outside of the subtext on the show itself, works in their favor in fandom spaces as well, where it's super easy for fans to stay in denial because of all of these different things at play, most of all ensuring they can fall back on the safety-net that queer-baiting will always be the norm. The Duffers are nurturing that assumption, while also trying as hard as they can to hint to the audience in the details how close minded that assumption truly is.

They're setting the audience up basically. Those that aren't willing to consider byler even when presented with hard evidence, wont. And those that are willing to consider byler when presented with hard evidence, will. Both sides are able to be somewhat comfortable in their assumptions, bc the side that is unwilling to consider it has history on their side, whereas the side willing to consider it knows that the evidence is too astronomical to not be entirely intentional.

That's the whole reason they did the monologue with Mike saying I love you 9 times... because it allowed that sector of the fandom to be comfortable in their assumptions based on what was being superficially told to them, despite everything being shown to them surrounding that event outright contradicting those assumptions.

It's all very, very intricate, as they are making decisions with the audience's reactions in mind.

I am glad you brought up the love triangle parallels, bc this concept was eating my brain the other day. Though, I was more so hung up on the fact that them not acknowledging those parallels also could in and of itself mean that the rules don't necessarily apply identically to these love triangles?

Arguably, fans are still going to ship Mike and El just like fans are still going to ship Nancy and Steve post s5 regardless of them not being endgame. But, is that what they want at the end of all of this? I think with Nancy and Steve the stakes are nowhere near as high as the sort of build up and tearing down of Milkvan, in that, by not at all acknowledging Will's role in these events like they do with Jonathan, they are saying that it isn't as simple as Mike just falling out of love with El like it was for Nancy with Steve, only to realize her feelings for Jonathan.

If it was that simple, they wouldn't have needed to carry out this fandom wide misinterpretation of Mike not saying I love you over the course of 2 seasons and STILL at the end of all that, have that audience completely in the dark about Will's role in that conflict, unless the truth is way more complex here than it was for Jancy/Stancy.

I mean you could obviously make the argument that from the beginning the Duffers framed Stancy very negatively, so maybe at the end of all of this, they do want to make it obvious that they never wanted us to ship either of them in the first place? HOWEVER them holding off on this concept outright with byler is why I think it would make sense for it to be this big thing, bc otherwise why save it for the last season? It would feel sort of anti-climactic if they treated it just like the other love triangle's situation bc of the confusion they have caused? This is no doubt going to be fucking breaking news to the majority. They're gonna need a recap and context of everything that was left out or intentionally kept from them, otherwise they're not going to be able to subscribe properly to what happens in s5.

And then there's a whole other layer of familial implications we're dealing with. Like with Jonathan and Steve, they don't have to deal with the complexity of being siblings like Will and El do. Will and Mike ending up together means that El and Mike will literally be ending the show in a sibling dynamic. And so, I do think it makes more sense for them to really want to separate the viewer from being able to ship Mike and El together, especially when they're already a little nervous fans will be too homophobic to accept byler as it is. This would make a lot of the familial references with Mike/El in earlier seasons hit a lot harder too, assuming rewatch value with byler endgame was on their minds.

So, I guess I will say I would agree fully with all of your points if this was an average love triangle, but that's not the case here. We're dealing with a bizarre love triangle by definition and I think there's different stakes that make their approach to this valid. When it's all said and done, it will make a lot of sense even if it doesn't right now.

Though, if i'm being completely honest, I think what plays the biggest role in their reasoning is hiatus. Like it truly comes down to the audience having almost 2+ years to ruminate over what happened in s4 and sort of work through that and drive themselves crazy.

If they had treated byler as an equal option to milkvan blatantly in casual promo for s4, while still attempting to make it seem like milkvan was endgame, it would have been dubbed queer-bait irrefutably. Or worse, most fans would have figured out byler was likely to happen, making the 2 year wait and the hype of s5 promo sort of fall flat bc everyone saw it coming.

Instead, a lot of people are fully confident it cannot and will not happen. Like they are 100% convinced. And we still have at least a year for them to work through that assumption...

Something to also keep in mind, is how they've dealt with leaks worse and worse over the years. And so a lot of these really exciting surprises they have, get discovered before they get the chance to reveal them. But bc so many people are homophobic, they can have a lot of evidence for byler and still manage to make this a surprise to those people. That's what makes this revelation so fun to them. Because it's soooo obvious in their eyes and yet most of their audience doesn't want to see it. Like that's gotta be very satisfying for them in a big way. I can't even imagine.

How I see it going down, or at least how I think it would make sense for it to go down, is while hiatus is still going strong, they want to keep both sides fairly confident, but especially milkvans side because that is eventually going to disappear at the end of all of this. The clock is ticking. When it's over it will be over forever. And so I understand why they're trying to hold onto giving those fans hope that milkvan will happen bc they only have so much longer for that to even be an assumption before the truth is eventually revealed.

And yet still, there will be a point when they want the audience to like s5 and accept it as the best ending, and that will mean that s5 promo will present a major shift in terms of them sort of agknowleding that the fans who have been paying attention know that the writers care about the details. That people who say the deatils don't matter are not going to be ready for what is to come. That is going to very likely be the wake up call to those that have been using stuff like them forgetting Will's birthday means that they forget things and therefore nothing can be that deep. It will no doubt be a punch in the gut for sure to those that have been in denial about that, but it's going to happen and it's probably going to happen within less than a year before the premiere.

6 months is another time frame that I could see them getting more brave.

3 months is when it's going to start getting real.

1 month and weeks, days before, it's going to be crunch time. They're going to be very heavily encouraging rewatching the show. They're going to be getting defensive arguably to prepare themselves for the inevitable backlash.

But they also know that it doesn't matter because at the end of the day, the truth was hiding in the details all along. It didn't come out of nowhere. It was right there. I think they feel comfort in that no matter what, bc anyone claiming it came out of nowhere at the end of all this, is gonna look stupid when the creators themselves are saying that is the opposite of the truth.

And then when s5 finally does come out, likely in 2 volumes to hold onto the hype as long as they possibly can, before it ends forever, that's when it will really set in that they're not going to hold back anymore and this is officially canon now. That's when the cast will fully agknoweldge it and talk about it and how they dealt with keeping it in the dark for so long and why felt the need to do it this way. And that's when hopefully you and all of us will get the closure we need.

The idea is that the satisfaction of being the first ones right ever in the history of mainstream television, is going to be immensely satisfying. Arguably, seeing those who vehemently denied it happening's reactions to it happening, will make all of the doubt along the way worth it.

#byler #byler endgame #st promo #st5 predictions #i feel like the shift already lowkey happened with s4 promo tbh #like almost all milkvan posts were sort of mocking them #they barely got featured on posts comparing st couples #if i'm being honest the painting bts was the official shift for me #arguably the definition of a cultural reset #s5 is really just going to be s4 on steroids #also them not allowing noah and finn to do press at all together #means they are likely saving press with them for s5 #not only do fans have to accept byler endgame #they gotta see the actors playing them praise it and show support and give their thoughts on the experience #i know it doesn't make sense now #it's also hard arguing with antis and being treated like your crazy #talked down on like 'hey frequent queerbaitee! know your place'#they treat ppl who fall for queerbait like they're the ones that are part of the problem...#they don't realize how horribly they are missing the point #the problem isn't people harmlessly shipping fictional characters #it's when they do so and then the creators feed off of that for hype and use it to promote the show despite knowing it will never happen #and then bc networks are too scared of having gay characters #*enter the bury your gays trope*#the culture has always been to get brownie points for featuring a gay character only to kill them off to appease the homophobes #that way the gays can have an oz of representation and the homophobes don't have to deal with the complexities of queerness #everyone wins right?#no...#that's the whole problem they are trying to poke fun at #they literally had mike and will bury a dead body to poke fun at how absurd this norm is #it's a love letter to a history of queer people being told their crazy for seeing things only to be right this time. it's pretty cool

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