#this trajectory is specific to Number | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

reasonsforhope · 5 months

Text

No paywall version here.

"Two and a half years ago, when I was asked to help write the most authoritative report on climate change in the United States, I hesitated...

In the end, I said yes, but reluctantly. Frankly, I was sick of admonishing people about how bad things could get. Scientists have raised the alarm over and over again, and still the temperature rises. Extreme events like heat waves, floods and droughts are becoming more severe and frequent, exactly as we predicted they would. We were proved right. It didn’t seem to matter.

Our report, which was released on Tuesday, contains more dire warnings. There are plenty of new reasons for despair. Thanks to recent scientific advances, we can now link climate change to specific extreme weather disasters, and we have a better understanding of how the feedback loops in the climate system can make warming even worse. We can also now more confidently forecast catastrophic outcomes if global emissions continue on their current trajectory.

But to me, the most surprising new finding in the Fifth National Climate Assessment is this: There has been genuine progress, too.

I’m used to mind-boggling numbers, and there are many of them in this report. Human beings have put about 1.6 trillion tons of carbon in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution — more than the weight of every living thing on Earth combined. But as we wrote the report, I learned other, even more mind-boggling numbers. In the last decade, the cost of wind energy has declined by 70 percent and solar has declined 90 percent. Renewables now make up 80 percent of new electricity generation capacity. Our country’s greenhouse gas emissions are falling, even as our G.D.P. and population grow.

In the report, we were tasked with projecting future climate change. We showed what the United States would look like if the world warms by 2 degrees Celsius. It wasn’t a pretty picture: more heat waves, more uncomfortably hot nights, more downpours, more droughts. If greenhouse emissions continue to rise, we could reach that point in the next couple of decades. If they fall a little, maybe we can stave it off until the middle of the century. But our findings also offered a glimmer of hope: If emissions fall dramatically, as the report suggested they could, we may never reach 2 degrees Celsius at all.

For the first time in my career, I felt something strange: optimism.

And that simple realization was enough to convince me that releasing yet another climate report was worthwhile.

Something has changed in the United States, and not just the climate. State, local and tribal governments all around the country have begun to take action. Some politicians now actually campaign on climate change, instead of ignoring or lying about it. Congress passed federal climate legislation — something I’d long regarded as impossible — in 2022 as we turned in the first draft.

[Note: She's talking about the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Act, which despite the names were the two biggest climate packages passed in US history. And their passage in mid 2022 was a big turning point: that's when, for the first time in decades, a lot of scientists started looking at the numbers - esp the ones that would come from the IRA's funding - and said "Wait, holy shit, we have an actual chance."]

And while the report stresses the urgency of limiting warming to prevent terrible risks, it has a new message, too: We can do this. We now know how to make the dramatic emissions cuts we’d need to limit warming, and it’s very possible to do this in a way that’s sustainable, healthy and fair.

The conversation has moved on, and the role of scientists has changed. We’re not just warning of danger anymore. We’re showing the way to safety.

I was wrong about those previous reports: They did matter, after all. While climate scientists were warning the world of disaster, a small army of scientists, engineers, policymakers and others were getting to work. These first responders have helped move us toward our climate goals. Our warnings did their job.

To limit global warming, we need many more people to get on board... We need to reach those who haven’t yet been moved by our warnings. I’m not talking about the fossil fuel industry here; nor do I particularly care about winning over the small but noisy group of committed climate deniers. But I believe we can reach the many people whose eyes glaze over when they hear yet another dire warning or see another report like the one we just published.

The reason is that now, we have a better story to tell. The evidence is clear: Responding to climate change will not only create a better world for our children and grandchildren, but it will also make the world better for us right now.

Eliminating the sources of greenhouse gas emissions will make our air and water cleaner, our economy stronger and our quality of life better. It could save hundreds of thousands or even millions of lives across the country through air quality benefits alone. Using land more wisely can both limit climate change and protect biodiversity. Climate change most strongly affects communities that get a raw deal in our society: people with low incomes, people of color, children and the elderly. And climate action can be an opportunity to redress legacies of racism, neglect and injustice.

I could still tell you scary stories about a future ravaged by climate change, and they’d be true, at least on the trajectory we’re currently on. But it’s also true that we have a once-in-human-history chance not only to prevent the worst effects but also to make the world better right now. It would be a shame to squander this opportunity. So I don’t just want to talk about the problems anymore. I want to talk about the solutions. Consider this your last warning from me."

-via New York Times. Opinion essay by leading climate scientist Kate Marvel. November 18, 2023.

33K notes · View notes

usnatarchives · 2 months

Text

Katherine Johnson: The Mathematician Who Launched Astronauts into Space and Women into STEM 🚀👩‍🚀

In the vast expanse of the cosmos, where men first dreamed of reaching the stars, Katherine Johnson calculated the path that would get them there. This story isn't just about trajectories and orbits; it's about a woman whose brilliance in mathematics helped break the barriers of space and gender.

Johnson's journey began in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, where her curiosity and intelligence shone from an early age. Despite encountering segregation and sexism, she charted a course that would lead her to NASA, where her skills became indispensable to the success of the U.S. space program. Her calculations were critical to the success of the Mercury missions, including John Glenn's pioneering orbital flight, for which he specifically requested Johnson verify the computer's numbers. "If she says they're good," Glenn said, "then I'm ready to go."

But Johnson's contributions went beyond Mercury. She also played a role in the Apollo missions, including the first lunar landing, and her work on orbital mechanics laid the groundwork for the Space Shuttle program and plans for a Mars mission.

Her legacy is a beacon for women and people of color in STEM, symbolizing the power of intelligence and perseverance to overcome societal constraints. Johnson's story teaches us that the path to the stars is paved with determination, hard work, and an unwavering belief in one's own abilities.

Katherine Johnson's calculations helped lead humanity to the moon, but her impact extends far beyond the numbers. She charted a course for future generations of women in STEM, proving that the sky is not the limit—it's just the beginning. As we look up at the stars, we remember her legacy, not just as a mathematician, but as a trailblazer who launched us into a new era of exploration and equality.

#PiDay #KatherineJohnson #Katherine Johnson #NASA #Mathematics #National Archives #Women's History Month #HERstory #Archives #Apollo13 #Mercury #STEM #Women in STEM #Science

512 notes · View notes

gumjrop · 7 months

Text

You might be forgiven for thinking it’s been a very quiet few months for the Covid-19 pandemic. Besides the rollout of new boosters, the coronavirus has largely slipped out of the headlines. But the virus is on the move. Viral levels in wastewater are similar to what they were during the first two waves of the pandemic. Recent coverage of the so-called Pirola variant, which is acknowledged to have “an alarming number of mutations,” led with the headline “Yes, There’s a New Covid Variant. No, You Shouldn’t Panic.”

Even if you haven’t heard much about the new strain of the coronavirus, being told not to panic might induce déjà vu. In late 2021, as the Omicron variant was making its way to the United States, Anthony Fauci told the public that it was “nothing to panic about” and that “we should not be freaking out.” Ashish Jha, the Biden administration’s former Covid czar, also cautioned against undue alarm over Omicron BA.1, claiming that there was “absolutely no reason to panic.” This is a telling claim, given what was to follow—the six weeks of the Omicron BA.1 wave led to hundreds of thousands of deaths in a matter of weeks, a mortality event unprecedented in the history of the republic.

Indeed, experts have been offering the public advice about how to feel about Covid-19 since January 2020, when New York Times columnist Farhad Manjoo opined, “Panic will hurt us far more than it’ll help.” That same week, Zeke Emanuel—a former health adviser to the Obama administration, latterly an adviser to the Biden administration—said Americans should “stop panicking and being hysterical.… We are having a little too much [sic] histrionics about this.”

This concern about public panic has been a leitmotif of the Covid-19 pandemic, even earning itself a name (“elite panic”) among some scholars. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned, three and a half years into the current crisis, it’s that—contrary to what the movies taught us—pandemics don’t automatically spawn terror-stricken stampedes in the streets. Media and public health coverage have a strong hand in shaping public response and can—under the wrong circumstances—promote indifference, incaution, and even apathy. A very visible example of this was the sharp drop in the number of people masking after the CDC revised its guidelines in 2021, recommending that masking was not necessary for the vaccinated (from 90 percent in May to 53 percent in September).

As that example suggests, emphasizing the message “don’t panic” puts the cart before the horse unless tangible measures are being taken to prevent panic-worthy outcomes. And indeed, these repeated assurances against panic have arguably also preempted a more vigorous and urgent public health response—as well as perversely increasing public acceptance of the risks posed by coronavirus infection and the unchecked transmission of the virus. This “moral calm”—a sort of manufactured consent—impedes risk mitigation by promoting the underestimation of a threat. Soothing public messaging during disasters can often lead to an increased death toll: Tragically, false reassurance contributed to mortality in both the attacks on the World Trade Center and the sinking of the Titanic.

But at a deeper level, this emphasis on public sentiment has contributed to confusion about the meaning of the term “pandemic.” A pandemic is an epidemiological term, and the meaning is quite specific—pandemics are global and unpredictable in their trajectory; endemic diseases are local and predictable. Despite the end of the Public Health Emergency in May, Covid-19 remains a pandemic, by definition. Yet some experts and public figures have uncritically advanced the idea that if the public appears to be tired, bored, or noncompliant with public health measures, then the pandemic must be over.

But pandemics are impervious to ratings; they cannot be canceled or publicly shamed. History is replete with examples of pandemics that blazed for decades, sometimes smoldering for years before flaring up again into catastrophe. The Black Death (1346–1353 AD), the Antonine Plague (165–180 AD), and the Plague of Justinian (541–549 AD), pandemics all, lacked the quick resolution of the 1918 influenza pandemic. A pandemic cannot tell when the news cycle has moved on.

Yet this misperception—that pandemics can be ended by human fiat—has had remarkable staying power during the current crisis. In November 2021, the former Obama administration official Juliette Kayyem claimed that the pandemic response needed to be ended politically, with Americans getting “nudged into the recovery phase” by officials. It is fortunate that Kayyem’s words were not heeded—the Omicron wave arrived in the US just weeks after her article ran—but her basic premise has informed Biden’s pandemic policy ever since.

Perhaps even less responsibly, the physician Steven Phillips has called for “new courageous ‘accept exposure’ policies”—asserting that incautious behavior by Americans would be the true signal of the end of the pandemic. In an essay for Time this January, Phillips wrote: “Here’s my proposed definition: the country will not fully emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic until most people in our diverse nation accept the risk and consequences of exposure to a ubiquitous SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.”

This claim—that more disease risk and contagion means the end of a disease event—runs contrary to the science. Many have claimed that widespread SARS-CoV-2 infections will lead to increasingly mild disease that poses fewer concerns for an increasingly vaccinated (or previously infected) population. In fact, more disease spread means faster evolution for SARS-CoV-2, and greater risks for public health. As we (A.C. and collaborators) and others have pointed out, rapid evolution creates the risk of novel variants with unpredictable severity. It also threatens the means that we have to prevent and treat Covid-19: monoclonal antibody treatments no longer work, Paxlovid is showing signs of viral resistance, and booster strategy is complicated by viral evolution of resistance to vaccines.

But these efforts to manage and direct public feelings are not just more magical thinking; they are specifically intended to promote a return to pre-pandemic patterns of work and consumption. This motive was articulated explicitly in a McKinsey white paper from March 2022, which put forward the invented concept of “economic endemicity”—defined as occurring when “epidemiology substantially decouples from economic activity.” The “Urgency of Normal” movement similarly used an emotional message (that an “urgent return to fully normal life and schooling” is needed to “protect” children) to advocate for the near-total abandonment of disease containment measures. But in the absence of disease control measures, a rebound of economic activity can only lead to a rebound of disease. (This outcome was predicted by a team that was led by one of the authors [A.C.] in the spring of 2021.)

A pandemic is a public health crisis, not a public relations crisis. Conflating the spread of a disease with the way people feel about responding to that spread is deeply illogical—yet a great deal of the Biden administration’s management of Covid-19 has rested on this confusion. Joe Biden amplified this mistaken perspective last September when he noted that the pandemic was “over”—and then backed that claim by stating, “If you notice, no one’s wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape.” The presence or absence of health behaviors reveals little about a threat to health itself, of course—and a decline in mask use has been shaped, in part, by the Biden administration’s waning support for masking.

Separately, long Covid poses an ongoing threat both at an individual and a public health level. If our increasingly relaxed attitude toward public health measures and the relatively unchecked spread of the virus continue, most people will get Covid at least once a year; one in five infections leads to long Covid. Although it’s not talked about a lot, anyone can get long Covid; vaccines reduce this risk, but only modestly. This math gets really ugly.

The situation we are in today was predictable. It was predictable that the virus would rapidly evolve to evade the immune system, that natural immunity would wane quickly and unevenly in the population, that a vaccine-only strategy would not be sufficient to control widespread Covid-19 transmission through herd immunity, and that reopening too quickly would lead to a variant-driven rebound. All of these unfortunate outcomes were predicted in peer-reviewed literature in 2020–21 by a team led by one of the authors (A.C.), even though the soothing public messaging at the time called it very differently.

As should now be very clear, we cannot manifest our way to a good outcome. Concrete interventions are required—including improvements in air quality and other measures aimed at limiting spread in public buildings, more research into vaccine boosting strategy, and investments in next-generation prophylactics and treatments. Rather than damping down panic, public health messaging needs to discuss risks honestly and focus on reducing spread. Despite messages to the contrary, our situation remains unstable, because the virus continues to evolve rapidly, and vaccines alone cannot slow this evolution.

In the early months of the pandemic, many in the media drew parallels between the public’s response to Covid-19 and the well-known “stages of grief”: denial, bargaining, anger, depression, and acceptance. The current situation with Covid-19 calls for solutions, not a grieving process that should be hustled along to the final stage of acceptance.

#op #covid #covid19 #covid 19 #covid-19 #covid isn't over #coronavirus #pandemic #public health #wear a mask

833 notes · View notes

oofthwoods · 4 months

Text

INTRODUCTION! ── ˙ ̟ the echo !!

𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 :: get to know porsche's bet for the newest legend in the making in formula one, dubbed as the echo.

𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫'𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞 :: i've been absolutely hooked in @disneyprincemuke vettel reincarnated's series and i have always loved fem!drivers so i decided to give my own take on this <3. | can definitely be read as a reader insert, but the driver will driver under a specific flag and related to a famous driver! even so, physical descriptions will not be given, so you can definitely picture yourself

our fem!driver has a few titles to her name! the most well known, echo, comes from her championship winning f3 & f2 seasons, where she was consistently the fastest driver in the grid, leaving behind only a faint trace of her presence for the other drivers to see.

other nicknames include "lightning" due to her great performances on wet races (as the media says, the only thing faster than the rain is the lightning.), "pg" (stands for both princess of the grid, which is an old karting nickname, and parental guide, given due to her young age), and the legacy.

she is the daughter of ex- formula one driver, rubens barrichello. she drivers under the brazilian flag. i picture her as the middle child, so that would place her date of birth between '01 & '04.

has a streak of four consecutive championship winning years: the italian formula 4 in 2019, freca in 2020, formula 3 in 2021 and formula 2 in 2022.

art grand prix girlie! has been with the french team for both her f3 and f2 seasons.

she was a red bull junior, but was suddenly cut from the team after her formula 3 season. helmut mark claimed that she wasn't consistent enough to justify a contract renewal, which was clearly bullshit as she had literally won the championship.

competed in formula 2 without an academy, but was in talks with porsche to join their team.

committing to her lightning nickname, she chose 95 as her number!

grew up in the paddock! her dad loved to take her around the world with him, and she became a familiar face to all crew and drivers. although she is the youngest of the current grid, she is closer to the oldest guys due to knowing them since she was very young.

outside of formula 1, her closest friends are gabriel bortoleto, felipe drugovich, frederik vesti, liam lawson and clément novalak.

within formula 1, she is closest to fernando alonso, lewis hamilton (both who met her when she was a baby), mick schumacher (her teammate at porsche), lando norris, alex albon and oscar piastri. but she is friendly with everyone, and tries to know them better — it does help that she is a social butterfly who could talk to the walls even if they don't answer.

about porsche: have been in the talks of joining the grid for a long time, and finally got their approval for 2023. they could go for veteran drivers but decided against it, placing their bets of mick schumacher, who had just been dropped from haas, and y/n barrichello, the f2 champion.

when the news dropped, it was the talk of the town! not only she would be the first female to compete in formula one in several years, but the duo barrichello-schumacher would be present again in the grid!

actually loves doing grill the grid and other challenges. some people think it's the rookie rush, but she has always loved playing those games.

has the biggest fat girl crush on susie wolff. would kiss the ground she walks if she could.

still needs a lot pr training due to amount of cursing and off-pocket things she says. apparently saying "i'll throw myself in front of verstappen's car and change the trajectory of his entire life" is not socially acceptable, neither is saying that she's plotting his accidental death.

sponsored by vivienne westwood, which she claims is probably the coolest thing to happen to her.

500 notes · View notes

transgenderer · 1 month

Text

the victorians are like the proto indo europeans in a very specific sense. so, proto indo european is way more inflected than most languages, an absurd number of cases and tenses and all that shit. so if you look at IE languages over time, they tend to get less inflected, just because like. you cant really get more inflected than PIE. so if you just studied IE languages, you might think language was getting "simpler" over time, but thats not a general rule, its just one particular trajectory, and such a trajectory could reverse

anyway, i think theres a similar thing with repressedness. the victorians were crazy in terms of like. discomfort with sex and the body. they were weird. so you could think, wow, society gets less restrictive and more body/sex comfortable over time! but i think thats basically just an artifact of "becoming less like the victorians, who were weird".

157 notes · View notes

play-now-my-lord · 8 months

Text

was doing some digging on emotional intelligence because I got sick of hearing the phrase mindlessly repeated by corporate flack journalists to praise CEOs; kind of wondered where that bullshit came from. it turns out there are two kinds of literature on EI, the kind intended for publication in scientific journals & the kind intended for pop writing. It's a truism in pop writing that "emotional intelligence" is real and correlated with transformative leadership, but if you read the actual papers they're some of the most weakly correlated shit ever ostensibly measured by science and the nature of the correlation is not really explored. (do people with high EI - let's just assume it's a real thing you can measure - do well in leadership roles? Do they tend to be drawn to leadership roles or thrust into them by the nature of their high EI? Are both leadership (hence the capacity for transformative anything) and high EI typical results of a specific life trajectory? Who can fucking say.)

The pop literature treats this link as (a) slam-dunk certain and (b) causative, so it's become de rigeur to praise bloodless vampires firing half their staff for emotional intelligence on account of the number went up and that means Transformative Leadership.

The true kicker for me, though, is that even the scientific literature is hideously flawed. The methodology is shot-in-the-dark stuff and several papers have raised the question of what the tests actually measure, with the strongest candidate to me personally actually being conformity - on account of people who score high on EI tests typically give answers to questions and tests that either comport with the testmakers' assumptions or, worse, which comport with the average response of a testing group

294 notes · View notes

vodika-vibes · 3 months

Text

Do It For Me

Summary: You are a Forensic Scientist who has been put in charge of the lab for Coruscant in spite of your youth and your relative inexperience. Due to budget cuts and the fact that there's so much crime on Coruscant, you are severely overworked. Hound takes an issue with that.

Pairing: Pre-ARF Trooper Hound x F!Reader

Word Count: 1837

Warnings: None

Tagging: @trixie2023 @n0vqni

A/N: I was writing a Fives fic and it was turning into hot garbage, so I wrote something else instead. And I'm in a Hound mood for some reason. AND I made a new divider for this story specifically.

You are severely overworked.

You know this. You’ve known this for years. And yet no one seems all that interested in making it better.

You thought, hoped, prayed, that the creation of the Coruscant Guard was going to lessen your workload.

It didn’t. In fact, it just made you busier.

Now there are a lot more men out there investigating crimes, and sending their evidence to your lab, and the same number of techs trying to analyze the evidence.

The turnover rate at your lab is, frankly, embarrassing.

You’re the employee who’s been here the longest, and you’ve only been here for two years. The fact that you’re now in charge of the lab, at barely 24 years old, is horrifying.

But none of the people who trained you were willing to stay.

And you can’t even keep new hires around for longer than a couple of months.

In fact, you once had a recent graduate that you interviewed and hired, who took one look at her to-do stack, and resigned. She worked less than an hour. You hadn’t even had time to finish filing her paperwork before she resigned.

It was impressive.

But as impressive as it was, it didn’t help with the fact that you’re one person doing the job of five.

You haven’t seen your apartment in a week.

You haven’t had a vacation since you were hired.

You haven’t slept more than 6 hours a night in over six months.

And still, still, the work keeps piling up.

At this point, every time you close your eyes, you see blood splatter and blaster round trajectory and dead bodies. Every night for the last week, you’ve had nightmares about the morgue-

You need a break.

Desperately.

But, in the end, it doesn’t matter what you need. Because crimes keep happening, people keep dying, and the evidence keeps piling up, and there aren’t enough employees for anyone to even take a day off, let alone a vacation.

You push your fingers through your hair, pulling it out of the tail only long enough to use your fingers as a brush, and then you pull your hair into a messy knot, and focus your exhausted eyes back on the file in front of you.

30 year old Nautolan Male, found murdered in the lower level. Coroner's report indicates that he was executed, two bolts to the back of the head. Victim was a known member of the Justic-

The words start blurring on the page, and you sigh and press the palms of your hands over your eyes.

You are so kriffing tired.

There’s a sharp knock on your door, and you lift your head as someone clad in gray and white armor walks in. The locations of the colors indicate that he’s a member of the Coruscant Guard, and the colors themselves indicate that he’s an ARF Trooper.

Not for the first time, you curse the fact that the Guard doesn’t allow for more unique body armor paint.

You squint at him for a moment, waiting for your eyes to agree with you so you can focus better on the man standing in front of you. “What’s wrong, Sen’ika, can’t recognize me?”

You recognize the light tone, and familiar nickname, before you recognize the man, and you send up a silent prayer of thanks that the clones only have identical faces, and not identical personalities.

“Hound,” You even sound tired to your own ears, and as he comes closer to you, you see a concerned expression on his face, “Ah, sorry. Sergeant.” You correct hastily.

“You don’t have to use my rank, Sen’ika.” He crouches next to your desk, his sharp eyes taking in the bags under your eyes, the way your hands are trembling, and the blanket and pillow on your couch. “When was the last time you went home and slept?” He asks, his voice gentle.

“Does it look like I have time for that?” You ask as you rub your tired eyes, “I dunno, it’s been a week, I think.”

“Sen’ika,” Hound frowns at you, “This isn’t healthy.”

“It’s not like crime stops because I need to sleep,” You grouch, “And the evidence keeps piling up, and I can’t get anyone to stay longer than a few months and-” You trail off, “And you have another case for me, don’t you?” Your voice becomes dull and almost lifeless.

Hound stares at you for a moment, and then he flashes a small smile. “I don’t, actually. I just wanted to come and see you.”

You squint at him, “Come and see me? Why?”

“Do I need a reason?”

“...I guess not?” You ask, bewildered.

“Exactly!” Hound smoothly slides something onto your desk while you watching him, bewildered, and then he takes your hands and lightly pulls you to your feet, “We’re taking a trip.”

“I can’t! I have-”

“You have a legal requirement to take an hour break every 6 hours.” Hound interrupts, “How many hours have you been working? More than 6 I’m guessing.”

“...Yeah, maybe.” You don’t fight him as he draps an arm over your shoulder and he guides you out of your office, and down the hall, and then outside, to where Grizzer is waiting.

The large massiff immediately bounces around your feet, and you duck slightly to give her a scratch. You’re a familiar person to her, likely because of how often you bump into Hound at various crime scenes.

“You never did tell me where we’re going.” You say to Hound once you straighten back up.

“Trust me.” Hound offers as he takes Grizzer’s leash and then tugs you against his side.

You’re a little confused at the way he’s being so comfortable with touching you, but you’re also not too bothered. Hound is Hound, after all. He’s always been safe.

So, as he leads you down the street, you don’t offer any complaint outside of a very weak argument that you needed your purse and your comm. And, with a laugh, Hound disagrees.

Hound doesn’t have an office, per se, but he does have his own space where he’s able to do his own paperwork, and where he can take Grizzer when she gets overwhelmed.

And apparently, where he brings overworked and underpaid civil servants who are working themselves to death.

His sen’ika is sitting on the old, worn couch he got from somewhere, her arms draped over Grizzer who is asleep on her lap. She looks exhausted. The kind of exhausted that he’s only seen on Fox before.

In a word, he’s worried.

“Sen’ika,” He coos the familiar nickname, and she lifts her gaze to look at him through hazy and exhausted eyes, and even then she’s the most stunning woman he’s ever met, “You can lay down and take a nap, I won’t judge you.”

She’s already shaking her head, “I have to get back eventually.”

“But if you get up, you’ll disturb Grizzer.” Hound points out.

She looks down at Grizzer, and she must be more tired than he thought because she just looks puzzled, like she can’t quite figure out the best way to get free. His worry increases.

“Just a short nap, sen’ika.” Hound encourages, “You’re not going to be able to finish your work with how fuzzy you are right now.”

For a moment she looks like she’s about to agree, but then she presses her lips into a thin line, “I have to get back, Hound.”

Hound leans back in his seat, his mind racing. He can’t let her go back. Not in this state. And using Grizzer as an excuse isn’t going to work anymore, he already knows.

“Alright,” He says slowly, thoughtfully.

He gets to his feet and carefully moves Grizzer, and then helps his sen’ika to her feet. Hound isn’t the least bit surprised when she stumbles into him, though he is glad that he thought ahead and removed the majority of his armor.

“...m’sorry.” She says quietly.

Hound closes his eyes for a moment and then, very gently presses his hand against the back of her neck, holding her against him. “You haven’t done anything wrong.” His voice is soft, soothing.

Her hands come up to press against his chest, and for a moment, Hound thinks she’s going to push away, worries that he pushed too hard. But, instead, she curls her fingers into the thin material of his blacks. “I’m so tired,” She whispers, and her voice cracks.

And that’s what Hound was waiting for.

His free arm wraps firmly around her, holding her tight, “You don’t have to go back to work. You need to take a break.”

He feels her tears soaking into his top and Hound turns his head to press a light kiss to the side of her head, “Someone has to do it-” She whispers, her voice thick with tears.

“That someone doesn’t have to be you.” Hound murmurs in reply as he slowly, and carefully, walks her back towards the couch. He readjusts her, and then sits on the couch, while holding her close. “We can reach out to the Jedi, they can help you.”

“The Senate-”

“Kriff the senate,” Hound’s voice holds no heat as he gently offers what comfort he can, “You’re working yourself to death, and I’m not going to tolerate it anymore.”

She pulls away from his shoulder and looks up at him through miserable, watery eyes, “Why do you care?”

“Because you’re my friend. Because I care about you.” Hound brushes his fingers against her cheek, “because I love you more than anything in this galaxy. Take your pick.”

She blinks at him, and then drops her head on his shoulder. She doesn’t say anything positive, but she also doesn’t say anything negative, which is good enough for now.

It’s not fair to spring love on her when she’s so exhausted. The fact that she’s not running away is good enough for now.

“Will you stay here and take a nap?” Hound asks as he strokes her back lovingly, “For me?”

“Every time I try to sleep, I have nightmares,” She admits quietly.

“Then you can sleep on me. I’ll wake you if you look like you’re having a nightmare. I promise.” Hound offers. “What do you think?”

She sighs, soft and quiet, “I suppose I can agree to that.” His sen’ika’s eyes drift shut, and Hound carefully adjusts her so that she’s leaning against him comfortably.

Fox is going to blow a gasket, but if he words his request properly, maybe then the Guard and the Forensics unit can get Jedi oversight. That can only help with his poor Sen’ika’s problem, and it’ll keep Fox from working himself to death.

Hound glances at the woman in his lap, and his gaze softens, before he presses a light kiss to the top of her head. That’s a problem for later, for now, he has the love of his life asleep in his arms, and he’s going to just enjoy it while he can.

#star wars #tcw #arf trooper hound x reader #hound x reader #star wars fanfiction #x reader fanfiction #f!reader fic

89 notes · View notes

titleknown · 4 months

Text

...TBH, while the nature of the site might make this sound silly, this should be a wakeup call that free speech online is in moral peril.

I've had at least one person I know (Specifically @reggiemess, who's really into free speech stuff) say in response to this that:

I legitimately think we're looking at the end of safe, anonymous clearweb porn within a few years. The number of states that are passing/have passed "id required for porn access" laws IS increasing. And people need to be aware of that. Atm I'd consider them in the 'testing phase' where they're waiting for legal challenges and testing logistics for enforcement. Currently I think they're not getting much attention because a) people who would oppose these laws don't care about red states b) vpns exist and are an effective way to get around websites blocking state access and c) currently it's being handled by websites blocking state access rather than suing or otherwise putting up a challenge.

But, let this not lead you to despair, but to action, given he also said:

To be clear while I do think that's where the current political trajectory is headed, I don't think it's irreversible and set in stone. Watch local legislation. This is something that's happening at the state level, which gives a false sense of security for people in blue states- if enough states make operation difficult/expensive, sites could be forced to comply or shut down.

So, yeah, do that. If you belong to any local orgs like the DSA, or hell even if you have a local friendgroup who you think might be organizable, try and get their asses on that issue, because it is important.

But also, focus on stopping the federal laws, which I've talked about a lot in terms of warning folks about them, but they're still a threat and still gonna be a threat all through this stupid election year.

So keep calling your damn senators about them, keep up with Fight For The Future and their badinternetbills.com project, and also if you can, there's a Discord server I belong to trying to organize folks to fight this at the federal level, so that's helpful too.

Like, this should not send you into despair, this should be a wakeup call, let's make sure they don't pass this like FOSTA/SESTA did, because y'all know what that did to Tumblr...

#censorship #free speech #kosa #internet freedom #signal boost #e621

136 notes · View notes

mrghostrat · 3 months

Text

i appreciate all the kindness for my uni rejection, and anyone going through the same thing should def read through my replies if they need similar comfort. there’s a lot of “ATAR isn’t everything!” comments tho, which made me realise i haven’t actually talked much about my goals, so i wanted to share a little context.

i’m 30 (on the 17th). i took a gap year after high school and i went to uni at 19. i even dropped out a semester before graduating to pursue the one thing that was making me happy (my first original comic) during a really bad depression (undiagnosed adhd burnout). i got the last units and graduated a year later, a bachelor of game design.

haven’t used my degree once. i went into comics and freelance rather than games. but i also loved that degree and would do it all again, it was absolutely worth it.

i’ve been freelance and self sufficient for 6-7 years, and it’s fun and i’m proud of the things i’ve made, but i’m so tired. i’m specifically tired of having to work 7 different angles to make up one sufficient salary, and even if it ends up being temporary, i’d give anything for a 9-5. have someone else in charge for once.

got to the end of my rope last year and sat down to figure out what i like and what i’m good at. a Life Plan, yknow. i’ve always had an interest in teaching, helping, connecting like that. figured out degrees and became really invested in this new trajectory i pictured my life going on. i was also tired of waiting, because every time i wanted to move back to the city from this tiny town we’re in, somethings come up or delayed it. so zita helped me figure out how we could get the ball rolling and break our lease 3 months early, so we could move back to melbourne and i could start my degree this year. we looked for (and found) an apartment specifically on the side of the city that would be closest to my campus.

i hope that gives a lil context as to why i’m so devastated right now. the last 5 months have been me revving up to start this new chapter at the end of feb and one little email said nah.

the degree i wanted to do was a double degree, secondary education (hons) and a BA of fine arts. i was equally excited for both, because i never got to do a lot of actual art learning in my last degree, and the BA would give me all of that— life drawing, sculpting, painting, wood/metal/jewellery working, digital, fuckin everything. but it was the less important of the pair, when it comes to getting myself a job as an art teacher, because i already have the art experience. it was just a fun bonus, and the education degree was the one i NEEDED.

in nov i had to travel to melbourne to present a portfolio and interview for the BA. they showed me around the studio too, and i fell a little bit in love. i got the acceptance email in december, but i still didn’t have an offer for the education degree. another reason why i’m so discombobulated— i technically have an invitation, but it’s for the less important degree that would just be a money sink. do i go to uni anyway?? or just ignore this invitation and move on?

my state recently made education/teaching degrees free as a way of encouraging more teacher jobs. i learnt about this after i decided i wanted to pursue teaching, so it was just a fun lil bonus that i wouldn’t be adding to my student debt. apparently not, bc i didn’t think about how every teenager and their dog would apply for teaching degrees so they could get straight into uni without any debt. so, even tho i’m a graduate and i’m not relying on school scores, i was one in a million, likely just numbers on a page, and didn’t get in.

there could be other paths. i could start the BA and add the Edu degree later? i could reapply for mid year intake. i could… idk, most of what i could do requires emailing Monash and asking wtf, because i have no idea what’s actually possible and will need someone to lay it out for me.

still feels like i’ve run into a brick wall though. little bit shut down. more sad, not quite angry, but suddenly really spiteful for some reason— like “oh, you don’t want me? okay fuck you then, i won’t ever teach.” so stupid. just a bit fragile rn

#ghost scribbles

121 notes · View notes

opencommunion · 3 months

Text

from a 2018 interview with Dr. Ghassan Abu Sitta on his experiences treating protesters wounded by the IOF during the Great March of Return:

"By 7:00 P.M., the system was on the verge of collapse. There were more injuries than there were beds, or operating rooms, in all of Gaza. Patients at al-Shifa were waiting four to five hours to get into the operating theater. At al-Awda alone, we had seen 120 gunshot wounds, and we were only a 3-operating room, 70-bed hospital. Every single case needed some kind of surgical intervention. And then suddenly there was a decision by the organizing committee of the march, I believe, to start pulling people back because they realized the system was basically about to collapse. By 7:00 P.M. it had become apparent that over a four-hour period, the number of injured had reached 3,500, with around 1,500–2,000 of those being gunshot wounds. Other than the 120 gunshot wounds at al-Awda, we had a lot of gas inhalation cases. And this wasn’t tear gas but nerve gas. These cases have continuous convulsions for an hour and need close monitoring and intervention in the form of anticonvulsants. ... The following day, the number of injured actually dropped because the whole of Gaza was in a state of shock: there had been 63 killed, 44 amputations, and 3,500 wounded in the space of four hours the day before, meaning that we were looking at something closer to a World War I–type carnage than a demonstration. The drop in casualty numbers allowed us to take on more cases: by day three, we were beginning to look at reconstruction for the previously injured and to really start to figure out what we would need for them. And the initial waiting list of 500 I mentioned earlier had more than tripled: there were now 1,600 cases that needed reconstructive surgery, that is, repeated surgical interventions were required to reconstruct these injuries.

Can you give us examples of specific cases? There were lots of cases of what we call 'fragmentation bullets,' historically known as 'dumdum' bullets. Fragmentation bullets were the first weapons to be banned in international law because the very point of that particular weapon is to maximize injury: a fragmentation bullet fragments into 20–25 different pieces when it hits the body. We saw lots of those. A guy came in one day with two bullet wounds, one in each of his ankles. From the trajectory of the bullet, we could tell that this was not a 'through-and-through,' that is, when a bullet penetrates one limb, exits, and then goes into another limb. These were two separate bullets, and the fact that they were both lodged in his ankles meant that they were fired at the same time or else he would have fallen. This man was shot at the same time by two different snipers. So, it is very likely that the two snipers were coordinating with each other to target this man, that it was not an accident. They must have been talking and saying let’s shoot this guy, I’ll take the right ankle and you take the left. That is what this injury implies. Yes absolutely, it was not an accident. It’s like a game, a sport.

... Tissue damage is all about the transfer of energy from the bullet to the tissue. So by definition, by their very nature, 'regular' sniper bullets have the highest form of energy and therefore the amount of damage that they are capable of causing is immense. But what we saw is that even these bullets were being tampered with by the snipers to allow them to behave like fragmentation bullets so that they would release more energy as they hit the body. They were drilling the bullets in such a way as to weaken the tips, so that once a bullet hit the body it would fragment into multiple pieces. ... The Israelis understand that the world counts the dead and considers the injured or the wounded a lesser crime, so to speak, and so it is an attempt at creating an 'iceberg effect': that is, a situation where what is apparent is the killed but the real crime is in the wounded [who are not as visible] and the type of wounds that have been inflicted. To have 13,000 wounded in a place that counts 1.8 million people ... that figure bespeaks a battlefield, not a demonstration." By the end of 2019, occupation forces killed 322 demonstrators (x) and injured 35,600 more (x), including many thousands with severe injuries leading to long-term disability (x). IOF snipers were documented shooting unarmed protesters with the intent to kill (x), as well as targeting kneecaps to permanently disable protesters (x). Their targets included children, paramedics, and journalists. Many protesters were left with long-term disabilities and trauma (x). This is how the occupation responds to unarmed resistance (or what liberals call "peaceful protest"): with "World War I-type carnage" that "bespeaks a battlefield."

#palestine #resistance #library #history #palestinian testimonies

97 notes · View notes

reasonsforhope · 10 months

Text

"Similar to the expeditions of a hundred or two hundred years ago, the Tara Pacific expedition lasted over two years. Its goal was to research the conditions for life and survival of corals. The ship crossed the entire Pacific Ocean, assembling the largest genetic inventory conducted in any marine system to date. The team's 70 scientists from eight countries took around 58,000 samples from the hundred coral reefs studied.

The first results of the analysis have now been published in Nature Communications. This largest-ever data set collection on coral reef ecosystems is freely available, and for years to come, will be the basis for elucidating the living conditions for corals and finding a way for them to survive climate change.

Important first results of the expedition show that global microbial biodiversity is much higher than previously thought. The impacts of the environment on evolutionary adaptation are species-specific, and important genes in corals are duplicated.

Global biodiversity ten times higher than assumed

Coral reefs are the most biologically diverse marine ecosystem on Earth. Although they cover only 0.16% of the world's oceans, they are home to about 35% of known marine species. Using a genetic marker-based data set, the researchers found that all of the globally estimated bacterial biodiversity is already contained in the microorganisms of coral reefs.

"We have been completely underestimating the global microbial biodiversity," says Christian Voolstra, professor of genetics of adaptation in aquatic systems at the University of Konstanz and scientific coordinator of the Tara Pacific expedition. He says the current estimate of biodiversity (approximately five million bacteria) is underestimated by about a factor of 10.

Impacts of the environment on evolutionary adaptation are species-specific

The 32 archipelagos studied serve as natural laboratories and provide a wide range of environmental conditions, allowing scientists to disentangle the relationships between environmental and genetic parameters across large spatial scales. This led to another important finding: The effects the environment has on evolutionary adaptation trajectories of corals are species-specific. To determine this, the researchers examined the telomeres, the ends of chromosomes that are the carriers of genetic information, for the first time.

In humans, the length of telomeres decreases during life; that is, with an increasing number of cell divisions, suggesting that biological age is closely linked to the length of telomeres. Researchers on the Tara Pacific expedition have now found that the telomeres in very stress-resistant corals are always the same length. "They apparently have a mechanism to preserve the lengths of their telomeres," Voolstra concludes...

Important genes are duplicated

Research data from the Tara Pacific expedition brought to light that the long life of some coral species may have yet another reason: the duplication of certain genes. Many important genes are present multiple times in the genome. The researchers were able to determine this through sequencing of coral genomes employing a new high-resolution technique.

This technique, called long-read sequencing, makes it possible to not only determine the set of genes present, but also to look at their order in the genome. According to Voolstra, the pervasive presence of gene duplication could be a possible explanation for why corals can live for thousands of years despite being exposed, for instance, to extreme UV radiation in shallow waters.

The entire data collection is freely accessible

All data sets are openly accessible and fully described with accompanying physical and chemical measurements to provide them as a scientific resource to all researchers.

"This is unique," Voolstra says. "It is the largest data set collection on coral reefs ever collected and it is completely open access." The aspiration is that this data collection will serve as a foundation and inventory to guide future study of coral reefs worldwide for many years."

-via Phys.org, June 26, 2023

#coral #coral reef #ocean #ocean conservation #biodiversity #microbiology #genetic diversity #genetic research #conservation #telomeres #genetics #climate change #evolution #ocean life #open access #good news #hope

399 notes · View notes

howtofightwrite · 1 year

Note

This might not be in your line, but I was thinking about teleportation magic, and the fact that the earth is moving extremely quickly through the universe, while also rotating at an intense speed. Assuming a teleportation spell has to be cast from a fixed point to a fixed point, what school of math would be required to determine the second point?

Physics. Usually writers think of teleportation as a fixed relationship to a point of reference on the other end.

The earth rotates at about 1.6k km/h. So, that's “relatively,” easy to calculate. The earth orbits the sun at slightly under 30 km/s. The sun (along with the rest of the solar system) is moving at about 720,000 km/h. Oh, and the galaxy itself is moving at about 2.1m km/h.

So, all you need to do is take the trajectory of the galaxy, adjust for the movement of the solar system, then account for the orbital speed of the planet, and finally remember to account for the rotation of the earth. Once you've done all that you're ready to accidentally teleport yourself into hard vacuum because of a rounding error, or because you forgot to account for how velocity results in temporal lensing, and your perception of time is very marginally distorted, which wouldn't be a problem until you're dealing with speeds in excess of two million km/h. (For reference, the closer you get to the speed of light, slightly under 300m km/s, the slower time moves, or the perception of time, anyway. Normally, we're all on the same planet and moving at roughly the same speed, so the distortion is uniform, but when you're talking about calculating exact, non-relative points in space, the movement of the galaxy, and solar system, will throw your numbers off. Not by a large number, but enough to drop you outside of a breathable atmosphere.)

So, yeah, the short answer would be physics, but you'd be plotting a lot of vectors to work it out.

It's easier to work with teleportation when you can start taking some of those values off the table. Either by fixing your teleportation points with a fixed relation to one another (which would still have issues when trying to jump between planets, but should be fine if you're staying on earth), or based on fixed relations to a specific point. Untethered teleportation is a lot of math.

-Starke

This blog is supported through Patreon. Patrons get access to new posts three days early, and direct access to us through Discord. If you're already a Patron, thank you. If you’d like to support us, please consider becoming a Patron.

#how to fight write #Starke answers #writing advice #writing reference #writing tips #writing magic

240 notes · View notes

official-linguistics-post · 14 days

Note

In relation to this ask, what does one typically major in (or I guess, get a Bachelor's in) before doing a Master's in linguistics? Does English work? A specific linguistics degree?

Also, what does a person with a linguistics degree generally do? Is it just research? I'm super interested in linguistics but I don't want to be a researcher. I just want to...know things XD

(Not a first time student, just considering going back to school.)

i think the most expected undergrad majors would be linguistics, specific languages, literature, classics, maybe computer science. there are a huge number of trajectories that can lead into linguistics, though, not just these. i personally know people who've come from sociology and from archaeology, and surely from even farther afield.

superlinguo (lauren gawne) has over 80 interviews about the jobs of people who studied linguistics!

42 notes · View notes

charles-leclerc-official · 3 months

Text

Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari

All my thoughts about this 2025 historic transfer. I want to say that a lot of this is up in the air as there is no way to know for sure until we see tyres on the track, but here is what I think about the situation as it relates to all major players involved.

Why is Lewis leaving?

I think that even though the announcement was sudden it's not a total shock when you think about the reasons Lewis might not want to stay at Mercedes.

Yes, Mercedes has been his home for 11 years and gave him 6 WDC. However since 2021 he's been increasingly unhappy with the direction the team have taken the car. That in addition to the way management has been handling things over there it seems like Mercedes are not really doing what needs to be done to compete seriously with Red Bull in the coming years.

Not feeling listened to or properly valued at a team is really difficult for drivers. I think after so long Mercedes started taking Lewis for granted and expecting him to work miracles with a substandard car. He's done sim work in the 2024 merc car and it may be so far off his expectations that he realized he can no longer accomplish what he wants to at Mercedes.

The odd thing though is that he was seemingly pretty happy at Mercedes, at the very least talking about retiring with them, and a brand ambassadorship after. Whatever happened at Mercedes recently was enough to break his faith in the team and possibly his trust. Did Toto over promise and severely underdeliver?

There is a lot we are missing in terms of what was going on behind the scenes. There may have been one moment or race that was the last straw for Hamilton, but unless he tells us we can only speculate. I'd expect more specifics about this in the coming weeks. How Lewis talks about the split will tell us a lot.

Why Ferrari?

There are two big reasons why Lewis would want to join Ferrari as his next team

1 . Ferrari's upward trajectory and Fred Vasseur

Now for those who haven't been following Ferrari this may seem like a bad move. However Fred Vasseur took over as team principal at Scuderia Ferrari at the beginning of 2023 replacing Binotto. Since then he has been making big changes at Ferrari, hiring engineers from Red Bull and Mercedes, firing half the old team. He has been really doing the work to get Ferrari competitive internally.

Things are looking better for Ferrari under his leadership, in the next few years we have the possibility of seeing some very competitive cars coming out of Ferrari.

Also Fred and Lewis are close, they have history, that connection probably wasn't difficult for either of them to make.

So Lewis probably saw the appeal of the team that Fred is assembling and thought it looks a lot better than the current state of affairs at Mercedes.

2 . Ferrari's historic/legacy appeal

It's like they always say "Everyone is a Ferrari fan"

Ferrari is one of the greatest teams in F1 with the highest number of WDC and WCC wins. Many of the legends of the sport have done seasons at Ferrari. It is considered one of the dream teams to race for, with good reason. To drive with Ferrari is to add your name to a list of legends.

Lewis has always been a Ferrari fan. He's even said that he has thought about driving for them and even ending his career with them. The name carries prestige. And Lewis is probably thinking about where and when he wants to retire.

There were Hamilton retirement rumors not too long ago. I still think he has an idea of when he wants to retire, and he wants to do it in style(which in this case means in red)

Retiring with Ferrari carries this romantic grandeur to it. He's probably always wanted to do a season or two there and Mercedes just never gave him a reason. Well it seems now they have.

Even if he doesn't get his eighth WDC or even another P1 at Ferrari, it may be better to finish at a historic team he has respect for than to keep racing until Mercedes has used him up.

He has literally done so many things in F1 one of the few things he hasn't done is drive for Ferrari. It does make sense from the legacy career end perspective as well.

For new fans or DTS fans who think "Ferrari is a bad team they are terrible at strategy and always mess up" the times are changing. Forget everything you know/have come to expect, and wait for results. Ferrari aren't going anywhere, and will always be F1 legends.

Bonus reason 2.5: Lewis obviously wants to continue racing for a top team. If he doesn't want to stay at Mercedes where else is he supposed to go? No way would that work at Red Bull. Mclaren are already set, and Aston Martin aren't competitive enough. Ferrari is actually the only option that makes any real sense.

What about Charles?

Charles Leclerc just resigned with Ferrari on a multi-year contract(rumored to be a 2+2 deal, at this moment it's really hard to get accurate numbers on that) Fred Vasseur and the Ferrari team have said that he is the number one priority and that the technical development around the car is based on his feedback.

So what does this mean for Lewis?

Well Lewis is smart, he went into this knowing full well everything that Ferrari have been saying about prioritizing Charles. He isn't joining with the expectation that Charles is going to be his #2.

This is an area where we really need to see how the team manages two competitive drivers on the track in terms of strategy calls.

Charles is not going to tolerate #2 treatment. He sure as hell isn't going to back down from the challenge of having a WDC teammate.

There is the potential to see them being a real power duo on the track in 2025.

Charles also reportedly knew about Lewis, and wouldn't re-sign with Ferrari unless he really believed they were going to give him priority and had a chance of delivering a championship worthy car in the coming years(if not he has exit clauses) Charles isn't stupid either, he weighed all the options and decided that partnering with a multiple time WDC would be a welcome challenge and a push for his own career.

In 2019 when Charles joined Ferrari with Vettel he didn't back down from the challenge. In a competitive car we are going to see him shine on the track regardless of who his teammate is.

Charles also has battled Lewis and won, he's in his prime as a driver and he is certainly one for a challenge. If you think that Charles is going to be overshadowed by Lewis. Think again.

Lewis also has always been supportive of Charles and recognized his talents. I can see him potentially being a really great teammate for him. Charles also has always listed Hamilton as an inspiration, so these two do have a lot of mutual respect. The chemistry between them could really be legendary.

Let's be realistic. Lewis is the older more experienced driver. He is heading towards retirement, while Charles is in his prime. Charles is the future of Ferrari, that much is clear. This doesn't mean that Lewis isn't still an insanely skilled driver, and we may see wins from him at Ferrari. But at this stage of his career he isn't the one who is going to be shaping the team long term.

Another important thing to remember is that Charles has the experience specifically with Ferrari. He's been through it with them, he'll probably be helping Hamilton deal with some of Ferrari's possible shortcomings.

Looking at this driver lineup and assuming that this means Charles is no longer the top priority at Ferrari, or that he will be taking a back seat to Lewis is insane to me. He's one of the best drivers on the grid, and he does have to beat Lewis one way or another if he wants that first WDC.

If you don't think Charles is at the center of the future of Ferrari, you haven't been paying attention.

From Ferrari's Perspective

I mean the clear winner here is Ferrari. A Leclerc-Hamilton lineup is probably going to be the strongest on the 2025 grid.

If they are serious about Charles being number 1 and helping him get that first WDC, then Lewis' experience will be valuable in helping achieve that.

If there are times when Charles is out due to a DNF, or struggling with the car for whatever reason, Lewis is going to be able to really deliver on picking up points. It's almost a guaranteed at P2 in constructor's, and competitive when gunning for P1.

Ferrari probably want two drivers that will be consistently pulling podiums, and Lewis can sure as hell do that alongside Charles.

Charles is loved by Ferrari and the Tifosi, they aren't going to hang him out to dry in favor of Lewis. It would create a nightmare for the team. While Binotto might not have been smart enough to see that, Fred is smart enough to value Charles and his abilities. He knows that Charles will walk the moment he doesn't feel like Ferrari are valuing him.

Hamilton is certainly someone who could push Charles in the right ways to get him that first WDC.

But having a more mature multi-WDC driver in the second seat just makes a crazy strong driver lineup.

It's also one of the most brilliant moves in Formula 1 history. By getting Lewis from Mercedes Vasseur has crippled a rival team. They now have to scramble for a replacement, and no one is going to be able to really replace Lewis. The only driver who may come close is Alonso, and that is if Mercedes can get him(assuming Alonso isn't planning to retire at the end of the year)

This also throws the rest of the 2024/2025 driver market into further chaos. Red Bull likely didn't see this coming. They have a seat to fill in 2024 and now they have to consider that they will be going against a Leclerc-Hamilton lineup. Their expectations have been shattered and now they are probably re-thinking who is going to get that RB seat beside Max.

Now this may harken back to 2020 and how Ferrari handled Vettel. Well that was under Binotto. Fred has not given me a reason(yet) to think that 2025 and beyond would be similar. When talking about Ferrari and how they are going to manage things please remember A LOT has changed in the last year in terms of management.

With this move Vasseur revealed just how much bigger his plan for Ferrari really is.

This may be the ushering in of the next Ferrari golden age. We can only wait with baited breath to see.

What about Sainz?

It would not be right to talk about this without discussing Sainz.

This is not going to be a Sainz hate section, but I am going to need everyone to take a deep breath and be realistic with me here.

Over the last 2 months we've heard a lot of rumors regarding Sainz and Ferrari not being able to reach an agreement when it comes to his contract. Clearly this whole thing with Lewis has been coming for longer than we all realized.

It is possible that Sainz pushing Ferrari for a longer contract forced their hand to reveal that they'd already secured Lewis. It is also very likely that the rumors that they wanted to renew for one year are completely false and 2024 was always going to be his last year at Ferrari.

It's not really a contest when comparing Sainz to Hamilton. Who would you realistically rather have on your team? Sainz is a solid driver, but he has struggled with the development direction at Ferrari.

Additionally the dynamic between Sainz and Leclerc on the track and as teammates as a whole may be working out far worse than Ferrari had hoped. When Fred came in and said "we are going to have a number one driver" that is a big change in the philosophy of the team, very different than when Sainz joined. It may be that he simply isn't a good fit for the new direction at Ferrari.

Sainz also has not been handling things well in the press on his end. A lot of his attempts at negotiation may have really been detrimental to his position.

And yes he had the only non-Red Bull win in 2023. But the most important thing to remember about that win is that he didn't have to seriously battle Max to get it. Red Bull struggled unusually during Singapore, and that was massive in leading to a non RB victory.

The path to victory for Ferrari involves drivers who can compete with Max in equal conditions. Charles has proved multiple times that he can do that. He was one of the few drivers to seriously compete with Max this last season. Carlos simply hasn't been able to do that. In his own words he was scared that Max wasn't even pushing the car's full potential every race. A driver who is scared of Max because he has never really had to contend with him due to reasons outside his control is not "Take down Red Bull material"

This may seem harsh or like I am hating on Carlos, but I am being realistic. That is the way the stage is set. He isn't a bad driver by any means.

Ultimately it comes down to the fact that Sainz isn't the best fit at Ferrari in the long-term for a variety of reasons.

How the News Broke

This is where I am probably going to do the most speculation.

But I think based on the way this came out that this was not how or when any parties involved were meant to find out.

Ferrari didn't have anything prepared. They always are very considered about posts and press releases. To not have graphics ready to announce Sir Lewis Hamilton joining the team? No way. They weren't ready for the announcement.

Adding on to that they clearly weren't ready with how they were going to post about Carlos' last year. It may seem disrespectful, but they simply weren't ready with the posts, articles and team statements. I don't think that any of it was to intentionally disrespect Carlos.

I think it's very obvious that this leaked early. From which party I cannot tell, but it's pretty clear no one was ready.

Someone forced the news.

So that makes all of this come across way worse for Carlos and Mercedes. Rumor has it Carlos may have known for a few weeks now, so that would leave Mercedes the only party truly blindsided.

Timeline of Events

Based on the information we currently have here is roughly how I think things played out.

According to Toto he and Lewis were on the same page going into Christmas 2023.

Meaning something changed in a few short weeks for Lewis to make a change.

We keep hearing that roughly three weeks ago was when Ferrari potentially reached out again to Lewis.

So here is what I think might have gone down.

Ferrari had already secured Lewis for 2026, at the end of his new Mercedes Contract. This lines up with rumors that they were open to offering Carlos a 1 year extension.

However Sainz stalled negotiations, demanding a 2 year extension. Ferrari can't agree to that since they already got Lewis.

So Ferrari reached out to Lewis, possibly sweetening the deal to opt out of his Mercedes contract a year early. At this point Lewis has spent some time in the Mercedes simulator for the 2024 car and it may be well off his expectations. So he agrees.

Then the rumor starts spreading and eventually the inevitable has to be confirmed. Lewis is joining Ferrari in 2025 and Carlos is out of his seat at the end of the 2024 season.

I could be way off, but this at the very least makes some sense to me.

Final Thoughts

I am cautiously optimistic on what this means for Ferrari and Charles moving into 2025(this is a Charles blog you know I am most focused on his career) I am going to trust the team and vision Fred Vasseur has until he gives me a good reason not to.

Winners and Losers

There are some clear winners and losers here.

Winners: Ferrari, George Russell Losers: Mercedes, Carlos Sainz I say Ferrari because clearly this strong of a driver lineup is great as a team. I will wait to see if this ends up being a winning driver pairing for Charles and Lewis though.

George Russell is also suddenly the star at Mercedes. He is going to have the opportunity to really prove himself, after being #2 to Lewis for so many years I'm sure this change will be beneficial to his career(assuming he can step up and Merc give him a drivable car)

Mercedes just somehow fumbled one of the greatest drivers in the history of Formula 1. No way to really spin that as anything but a major blow to the team.

Sainz also is the victim of bad timing, a changing team, and not being able to compete with Lewis. It isn't fair, but this sport is brutal and we knew this was a possibility. Hopefully this means he will be able to find a team that better suits his goals/driving style.

However you want to view it, this is one of the biggest driver transfers in the history of the sport. It will be historic to see Lewis don Ferrari red alongside Charles.

Here is to a strong 2025 for Charles and Lewis.

Forza Ferrari

#charles leclerc #lewis hamilton #scuderia ferrari #mercedes #fred vasseur #carlos sainz #formula 1 #lucis essays #long post

31 notes · View notes