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nicklloydnow · 7 months

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“Russia said it would revoke its ratification of a major international nuclear-test-ban pact, a move that threatens to exacerbate global instability brought on by the war in Ukraine.

The step comes at a time when no arms talks between the U.S. and Russia are under way, Moscow has suspended its participation in the New START strategic-arms treaty, and ties between Washington and Moscow have reached lows not seen since the Cold War.

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Though the treaty isn’t legally in force because not enough nations have ratified it, major powers including Russia, the U.S. and China say they are abiding by its terms.

A State Department spokesman said that the Russian move “needlessly endangers the global norm against nuclear explosive testing,” and that the U.S. remains committed to observing a moratorium.

Some former U.S. officials noted the revocation comes at a time when Russian military experts have been discussing whether Moscow should resume tests to confirm the effectiveness of some of Moscow’s new nuclear weapon systems.

“The Russians are clearly having a debate about resuming nuclear testing and this is moving them one step closer to such a move,” said Lynn Rusten, a former U.S. arms control official who is now a vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit organization on security issues.

“If Russia were to test, other states would follow,” she added. “It would open the door for China to resume testing, for India and Pakistan and other states to follow.”

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The U.S., which was the first nation to sign the treaty, has observed a moratorium on nuclear tests since 1992. But it never ratified the agreement in the face of congressional objections over verification and other issues. China, whose last nuclear test was in 1996, has also signed but not ratified the treaty.

A total of 187 nations have signed the accord and 178 have ratified it. For it to take legal effect, eight nations would need to ratify it: China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the U.S.

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The U.S. has said that Russia has likely undertaken experiments that exceed that “zero yield standard” at its site at Novaya Zemlya, a remote archipelago in the Arctic Circle, an allegation Moscow has denied.

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On Thursday at the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin said Russia had almost finished working on new types of strategic weapons and that it had successfully tested the Burevestnik, a global-range nuclear-powered cruise missile, and finished work on the Sarmat, an intercontinental ballistic missile that carries a heavy nuclear payload.

“As a rule, specialists say, [with] a new weapon it’s necessary to make sure that a special warhead will work smoothly, and tests need to be carried out,” Putin said.”

“Satellite imagery and aviation data suggest that Russia may be preparing to test an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile — or may have recently tested one — with a theoretical range of thousands of miles.

Movements of aircraft and vehicles at and near a base in Russia’s remote Arctic region are consistent with preparations that were made for tests of the missile, known as the Burevestnik or SSC-X-9 Skyfall, in 2017 and 2018, according to a New York Times analysis.

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Russia previously conducted 13 known tests between 2017 and 2019, all of which were unsuccessful, according to a report from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit group focused on arms control. And mishaps can be deadly. A missile launched in 2019 crashed and eventually exploded during a recovery attempt, killing seven people, according to U.S. officials.

“It is exotic — it is dangerous in its testing and development phase,” Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said. Whether the Burevestnik has been tested again since 2019 isn’t clear, but even with a successful launch, the missile would still be years away from “operational deployment,” Mr. Kimball added.

In previous tests, the missile failed to fly a distance anywhere close to the designed range, estimated to be around 14,000 miles. U.S. officials assessed that during its most successful test flight, lasting just more than two minutes, the missile flew 22 miles before crashing into the sea. In another test, the missile’s nuclear reactor failed to activate, causing it to go down only a few miles from the launch site. For a test to succeed, the missile’s nuclear reactor would need to initiate in flight, so that the missile can cover much more ground.

According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative report, the missile is a “second-strike, strategic-range weapon,” intended to be launched after a wave of nuclear strikes have devastated targets in Russia. The missile could carry a conventional warhead but, in practice, would likely carry a nuclear payload, albeit a smaller one than most other nuclear-capable weapons. If used in wartime, the missile could have the potential to destroy large urban areas and military targets, experts say.

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The Burevestnik is one of six strategic weapons, along with others such as the Kinzhal ballistic missile and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, that Mr. Putin introduced in a 2018 speech. He asserted that the weapons could overpower and outmaneuver existing U.S. defenses. Addressing the West, he said, “You have failed to contain Russia.”

Visual evidence of testing preparations includes before-and-after satellite images.

Imagery taken on the morning of Sept. 20 shows numerous vehicles present on a launchpad at the base, including a truck with a trailer that appears to correspond to the dimensions of the missile. A weather shelter that typically covers the specific launch site had been moved about 50 feet. By the afternoon, the trailer was gone and the shelter was moved back to its original position.

Additional imagery captured on Sept. 28 shows the launchpad active again, with a similar trailer present and the shelter again drawn back.

On Aug. 31, the Russian authorities issued an aviation notice for a “temporary danger area,” advising pilots to avoid part of the Barents Sea off the coast and 12 miles from the launch site, known as Pankovo. The notice has since been extended several times and, as of Sunday, was scheduled to be in force through Oct. 6. Russia issued a similar notice before a Burevestnik test in 2019.

Additionally, two Russian aircraft specifically used for collecting data from missile launches were parked about 100 miles south of the launch site in early August, at the Rogachevo air base, according to analysis of satellite images by Bellona, a Norwegian environmental organization. The aircraft are owned by Rosatom, the Russian atomic energy company. They remained at that base at least through Sept. 26, according to additional satellite imagery. During Burevestnik tests in 2018, aircraft of the same type were also in the vicinity.

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The highly secretive nature of the Burevestnik missile initiative and the remote launch location make it difficult to determine if a test is forthcoming or if the weapon may have already been recently retested — or perhaps both. While launch tests of the Burevestnik have been conducted at the Arctic base in the past, Russia could also test just the missile’s rocket motor or a component of the missile itself.

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Experts said the missile is dangerous not only in its ability to carry a powerful nuclear warhead but in its potential to release harmful radioactive emissions if the missile were to explode or malfunction during a test.

If put into use, the Burevestnik would be considered part of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, making it subject to a nuclear arms reduction treaty that Moscow signed in 2011. That agreement limits the total number of warheads and delivery vehicles the country can deploy.

But with the treaty, known as New START, set to expire in February 2026, the missile could contribute to “the leading edge of an uncontrolled arms race” if no new agreement were to replace the expiring treaty, Mr. Kimball said.

Ultimately, he said, a test of the missile would be a “sign that Russia is moving in the wrong direction.””

“President Vladimir Putin has said Russia successfully completed the testing of a new nuclear-powered strategic missile and could revoke its ratification of a nuclear test ban treaty, raising fears that Moscow could resume nuclear testing for the first time in decades.

The Russian leader’s renewed nuclear talk on Thursday came against the backdrop of escalating rhetoric among Kremlin hawks, with a prominent propagandist drawing criticism this week for claims Russia should detonate a nuclear weapon over Siberia to send a message to the West.

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“The last successful test of the Burevestnik, a global-range cruise missile with a nuclear propulsion system, was carried out,” Putin said.

The question now, Putin said, was about resolving some “purely administrative and bureaucratic” procedures in order to move on to mass production of these weapons and putting them on combat duty. “We will do this soon,” he added.

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“This is a stupid weapon system, designed by stupid people for operational reasons that are not tremendously useful,” William Alberque, the director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told NBC News.

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Since the start of his war in Ukraine, the Russian leader has repeatedly threatened to unleash the country’s powerful nuclear arsenal should its sovereignty or territorial integrity be threatened.

It’s part of the country’s so-called nuclear doctrine, which Putin said Thursday there was no reason to update, when asked if the threshold for employing nuclear weapons should be lowered to restrain the West. “No person in his right mind and clear memory” would think of using nuclear weapons against Russia, Putin said.

He added that he was not ready to say whether nuclear testing is actually needed, but threatened to revoke Moscow’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which bans all nuclear explosions, whether for military or peaceful purposes. It would mirror Washington signing but not ratifying the treaty, Putin added.

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It comes just months after Russia suspended its involvement in the last remaining arms control treaty with the U.S., which limits nuclear stocks.

Putin did not specify when or where the alleged testing of the Burevestnik missile took place.

But the New York Times reported earlier this week, citing satellite imagery and aviation data, that Russia may be preparing to test an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile, or may have recently tested one.

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A suspected failed test of Burevestnik in 2019 killed five scientists and caused a radiation spike in a nearby city.

Technologically, the weapon is not that much of a challenge, said Alberque, but safely deploying it is much more difficult. “There is a reason the U.S. abandoned this technology in the Cold War. It’s just a bad idea,” he added.

The failed test in 2019 illustrates the dangers of this technology, he added.

Talking about its testing may primarily be an attempt to intimidate the West and force concessions on Ukraine, but Moscow withdrawing from the nuclear test ban treaty would be a huge deal, Alberque said. Russia is part of the global monitoring system that helps detect nuclear explosions and losing Russian sensors would deal “a hammer blow” to that ability, he added.

According to the United Nations, the Soviet Union’s last nuclear test took place in late 1990, so the resumption of nuclear testing by Putin’s Russia would be a major development that could further escalate global tensions.

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Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of Russia’s English-language RT network, suggested Sunday that there is no need for nuclear strikes on Washington when a thermonuclear explosion over Russian territory, like Siberia in Russia’s far east, would knock out all radioelectronics and satellite systems, in a major blow to the West. “Nothing so terrible would happen” to the area or locals, she said, adding that it’s one of the “most humane” options she sees available.”

#putin #vladimir putin #russia #ukraine #war #wwiii #nuclear #nuclear weapons #nuclear missile

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