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catfe-overlord · 4 years

Text

“Feral”

Part 5

Read part 1 here

Read part 2 here

Read part 3 here

Read part 4 here

::in which Bakugou and Kirishima are closer than ever, quite literally and figuratively. Bakugou messes up, plans are definitely NOT cancelled, and there is a maybe date happening::

P.S. IM SORRY THIS TOOK SO LONG TO POST. It was a loooong week. I’ve gotten a promotion though, so that was cool! Anywho, I’ll try and be quicker with the updates since I have a lot of my one-shots already half finished:)

P.P.S. I wrote out the whole chapter and apparently it’s exceeded a word count or something so I had to split it into two chapters. I just have to give it a quick edit and I’ll have it up today, hopefully in the next couple hours.

+++++++++++++

Aizawa kept Bakugou for one more night just for observation. He was allowed back to class Tuesday morning.

Kirishima waited outside of his dorm for Bakugou to finish getting ready. He played a game on his phone and leaned against the wall opposite of Bakugou’s door.

He’d only been waiting a few minutes before the door opened and a fully-uniformed Bakugou Katsuki stepped out. He looked well rested and much more like himself than Kirishima had seen him in days. He still had his usual grumpy look, but it put a smile on Kirishima’s face to see it. He’d missed Bakugou so much that having him back felt like a hole had been filled in his chest.

Kirishima didn’t think about what he did next until Bakugou pulled away. The redhead looked down at their hands, dawning on him that he’d just tried to hold Bakugou’s hand. The movement felt so natural, almost like an instinct.

“Oh!” he said, surprised by himself. “I’m sorry, man. That was weird of me. I didn’t even think about it—”

“It’s fine, Shitty Hair,” Bakugou interrupted him. “Here.”

Kirishima watched as Bakugou laced their arms together at their elbows. He had a weird scowl on his face, but he didn’t say anything about it and opted to tug Kirishima along to get him moving. Together, arm in arm, they descended the hall until they reached the elevator.

They didn’t say a word the whole ride down. Kirishima was too lost in his racing thoughts to come up with the right thing to say.

Was Bakugou touch starved? He wasn’t ever the type of guy to initiate any sort of touching. Though, he hadn’t been able to get near anyone in days. On average, at least a few times a day Kirishima would lean on him or put a hand on his shoulder or sometimes even throw him into a surprise hug the blond didn’t see coming. Bakugou had adapted to Kirishima’s fondness. This—having Bakugou as the initiator—was so foreign, Kirishima couldn’t wrap his head around it.

They didn’t let go of each other until they reached the kitchen. Kirishima tossed Bakugou ingredients and utensils as the explosive boy whipped up some egg drop ramen for the two of them.

He usually made more food to include the Bakusquad, but he never bothered with breakfast. The other three were never up early enough.

As it turned out, Kaminari was right: Kirishima had missed Bakugou’s cooking. He wasn’t sure where the blond learned to cook so well, but Kirishima would have given his pal a five star review on Yelp if he could have.

“What did I miss in class?” Bakugou asked after they’d sat down. He was twirling his chopsticks around in his bowl to pick up some noodles.

“Don’t know,” Kirishima answered through a mouthful. He swallowed before continuing. “I didn’t really go to class yesterday.”

Bakugou frowned. He glared at his ramen like he’d just witnessed it murder his cat. “Let’s ask Ponytail for her notes. I’m not asking shitty Deku. His notebook is a fucking mess.”

“Good idea,” Kirishima agreed. “Hey, did you wanna do some extra training after class? The gym is free today. We could work on our special moves like last time.”

Bakugou seemed to be thinking it over. After a moment of considering, he set his chopsticks down. “What if we went to the movies?”

Kirishima stared at him. He’d said it in such a soft voice, Kirishima knew he was being serious. “The movies? Over training? That doesn’t sound like you.”

He glared in return. “Do you want to or not, Shitty Hair?”

He laughed. “Yeah, totally! Was there a movie you had in mind?”

Bakugou picked his chopsticks back up and was using the utensils to play with his food. Kirishima couldn’t help thinking he looked shy. His cheeks were the slightest hint of pink. “There’s that action movie… I know you like those.”

Kirishima perked up at that. “Really? You’re talking about the one where those two guys have to duel for the dojo after their master is killed, right?”

“The only cheesy-as-hell action movie in the theaters right now, yes.”

“Dude, I’ve wanted to watch that forever! It didn’t do great in the box office, but I think it looks great! You really want to sit through that for me? That doesn’t seem like your kind of movie.”

He finally stood to take his bowl to the sink. “I just want to get out. I’ve spent the last four days staring at white walls.” He nodded his head to Kirishima’s empty bowl, who got the message and passed it over.

“I’m down for the movie, one-hundred percent! And, hey—maybe this weekend we can go hiking? That should help get you out of your own head.”

He hummed in response. “There was that new trail we could try.”

“Oh! Yeah, I remember that. We wanted to go last time, but it was getting too dark so we didn’t get the chance. How’s your schedule look? I’m free all weekend!”

He finished up washing their dishes and deposited them onto the drying rack. “Let’s go Saturday. My shitty aunt is in town this weekend, so I can avoid her at least then. I have some stupid family dinner my parents are making me go to on Sunday if… uh, if you wanna go.”

Kirishima cocked his head. “To your family dinner? You want me to go? Would I be intruding?”

Bakugou leaned against the counter and folded his arms. “No. If you’re there I might actually act ‘civil’ is how my old hag put it. You can sleep over too, if you want.”

Kirishima’s eyes sparkled. A sleepover? At Bakugou’s house?! He’d been over a few times, and he loved being able to spend the extra time with his hot-headed friend. But a sleepover? His heart nearly leapt out of his chest.

“Hell yeah! You usually head home Friday nights, right? What time should I be around Saturday to head on the hike?”

“Just come home with me Friday. Then we can leave early.”

Holy. Shit.

Two whole nights with Bakugou. He felt like his brain was about to short circuit.

His moms wouldn’t like him not visiting over the weekend, but they would understand. He talked pretty highly of Bakugou to his parents, so they would know how much this meant to him.

He pumped his fists together. “Alright! A guys’ weekend! This is gonna be great, man! We can watch movies and play video games, and I’m gonna get you to stay up past eight-thirty!”

Bakugou snorted. “Then I’ll make sure to wake you up by six in the morning.”

“No!” Kirishima gasped. “That’s just cruel, man.”

Bakugou smirked and grabbed his book bag, then headed for the door. Kirishima jumped up to follow.

Class was extra boring today, and Kirishima couldn’t pay attention to a word of his lessons. The day dragged on, probably because he had the movies with Bakugou to look forward to.

Finally, the bell rang for lunch. He and the squad moved out while Bakugou stayed back to collect the homework assignments he missed yesterday. He’d catch up with them after.

They were all seated at their usual table, Ashido chatting everyone’s ears off. Kirishima zoned out staring out the window at the lawn when the pink-haired girl brought him back down to earth.

“Kiri? Babe. Earth to Kirishima.”

He smiled sheepishly. “Sorry. My head is all over the place today.”

He hadn’t even realized Bakugou sat down beside him. The blond was giving him a weird look as he popped open his bento box.

“So!” Kaminari exclaimed, catching everyone’s attention. “I had this idea—”

“Oh shit,” Bakugou muttered loud enough for everyone to hear.

Kaminari glared at him while everyone else laughed. “Anyway. Wouldn’t it be such a good idea if we challenged Bakugou and Sato to a cook off? Our class chef versus our class baker. It'd be epic!”

“I love it!” Ashido announced.

Sero looked into the distance dreamily. “Think about all the leftover food.”

“I don’t bake,” Bakugou stated. “I don’t do sweets. And Sugar Freak is a shit cook. Wouldn’t be much of a challenge.”

“Well, we can have you both whip up something as a main dish and then a dessert to follow,” Ashido suggested. “We could vote whose meal was better.”

Bakugou didn’t look impressed. He stuffed a chunk of beef into his mouth and ignored the rest of the conversation.

“What if we did it tonight? Everyone’s free, right?”

Kirishima whipped his head up from his meal to face Kaminari. “Not tonight, man. We’ve got homework to catch up on, and Bakugou and I were going to catch a movie.”

Everyone’s eyebrows scrunched. They stared between the two boys like this was weird behavior of them.

“The movies?” Ashido asked, her expression shifting to something more mischievous. “Like, just the two of you? Alone?”

“You annoying shitsticks aren’t coming, so don’t even ask,” Bakugou said in his grumpy voice.

Kaminari raised a devilish eyebrow. “So… is this like… a date?”

Kirishima felt his ears grow hot. “No! No, it’s not like that! We’re just two bros going to the movies! Right, Katsuki?”

He looked over to the blond, who had a death grip on his chopsticks. His face read pure rage, but there was a blush crawling up his neck and cheeks. It seemed to worsen at the use of his given name. The chopsticks snapped in his grip.

“KATSUKI?!” Ashido practically screamed. “He lets you call him by his given name?”

The other two boys were dying at this point. They clutched their stomachs as they busted out laughing, tears sparkling in their eyes. Sero slapped a hand on the table. “Oh my god! I can’t breathe!”

Bakugou slammed his own fists against the table and stood. “FUCK YOU GUYS, WE’RE OUT OF HERE! COME ON, SHITTY HAIR! LET’S GO.”

Kirishima stood on wobbly legs, his meal forgotten as his mind reeled. He chased after Bakugou, a million questions racing through his brain he couldn’t seem to vocalize. Was this a date? If it wasn’t, wouldn’t Bakugou have corrected them? If it was, why’d he get so defensive?

Bakugou turned around and grabbed Kirishima by the elbow to speed him up. They must have been too loud, because half the cafeteria’s eyes were watching them as they left.

They made it back to the classroom, and Bakugou’s grip hadn't let up. He finally let go when he moved to his desk and sat down heavily. He crossed his arms and turned his face away from Kirishima.

“Uh,” Kirishima tried to form words, but he wasn’t sure what to say. “Should we talk about this?”

“No,” he answered quickly.

“Well, that seemed to really bother you back there. If you were thinking—”

“I don’t want to talk about it, Eijirou.”

Kirishima could see the angry blush on his face when he glanced back at the redhead. Kirishima settled into the desk beside his. “Alright. You still want to go though, don’t you?”

He huffed. “Yeah, we’re still fucking going.”

His lips spread into a smile. “Glad to hear it! I can’t wait.”

The two broke out their homework after that, attempting to get caught up before the rest of the class slowly trickled back in. To Kirishima’s surprise, it was Bakugou who was having trouble focusing.

Class started up again, and Kirishima had to migrate back to his own desk. A worksheet was passed out by Midnight, and they were told to fill out what they could. Kirishima was only a few questions in when he glanced Bakugou’s way out of habit.

Midoriya was leaning forward, whispering something to Bakugou, who looked his usual amount of annoyed. It was when the green-haired boy reached out to tap Bakugou’s shoulder that chaos ensued.

Kirishima shot from his desk and across the room before most students even noticed anything was wrong. Everything happened so fast, even Kirishima’s brain had to play catch up.

Bakugou had snapped. In an instant, he’d had Midoriya pinned to the floor, slashing at his face with the claws that weren’t there. Midoriya was obviously caught off guard, but he was still fast enough to hold his arms up to shield his face from Bakugou’s attacks.

Kirishima tackled Bakugou off of his rival, using his hardening to pin him down. Bakugou was uncharacteristically hissing like some wild animal. Sero and Tokoyami were out of their seats now too, ready to help if they could.

“Katsuki!” Kirishima yelled, trying to snap the blond back to reality. “Katsuki, stop! It’s me! It’s Eijirou!”

Midnight stood above the boys, her hand resting on her sleeve and ready to tear it to put Bakugou to sleep with her quirk. Kirishima quickly shook his head at her. “Don’t! That won’t help.”

Bakugou’s movements became sluggish and he was blinking hard, quicly coming back to his senses. Kirishima watched as realization dawned in his eyes. He looked between Kirishima on top of him to Midoriya on the ground a few feet away. “Shit,” he cursed.

“Kacchan, I’m sorry!” Midoriya apologized. “I didn’t know the quirk hadn’t worn off yet. I shouldn’t have touched you. Kacchan, I’m so sorry!”

“Don’t fucking apologize to me, damn nerd!” he shouted in return. He growled in frustration. “I thought this shit was over.”

“It’s alright, man,” Kirishima sighed, relieved to have Bakugou back. He slid off of the blond and sat on the floor, rubbing the back of his neck. “Midoriya, you okay?”

“I-I’m fine!”

“Ahem,” Midnight cleared her throat. She had her hands on her hips and an unimpressed look on her face. “Could someone tell me what’s going on?”

“After effects,” Todoroki was the one to explain to Kirishima’s surprise. “It seems the quirk hasn’t quite worn off.”

“I’m fine now,” Bakugou grumbled. “It’s gone.”

“I highly doubt—”

“It was a fluke!”

“Guys!” Kirishima raised his voice to get them to stop. Bakugou glared at him for his interruption. Kirishima ignored the look and turned back to the other student still on the floor. “Midoriya, why don’t you swap seats with me for today?”

Midoriya nodded, finally pulling himself off the ground. “Good idea.”

Bakugou caught Kirishima’s wrist before he could stand as well. “I don’t need a damn babysitter.”

“I’m not babysitting you,” the redhead fired back. “My quirk is best suited to stop you if it happens again, which I doubt it will. Just a precaution, man.”

Midnight was tapping her foot, arms folded as she stared the two down. “Are you boys sure this is such a good idea?”

“Yes,” they said in unison. They looked at each other, and Bakugou bowed his head to allow Kirishima to finish. “He’ll be fine. It won’t happen again, and I’ll be there to stop him before it could happen again.”

She clicked her tongue. “Alright. I’ll allow it. Don’t make me regret it. And there had better not be any more interruptions.”

Everyone migrated back to their seats and the light chatter died off. Kirishima and Midoriya collected their things and traded seats. Once he was seated, Kirishima noticed a folded up piece of paper on the corner of the desk.

He opened it as quietly as he could, but Midnight seemed pretty preoccupied by the romance novel her eyes were glued to. It was definitely Bakugou’s handwriting, all caps and angry penmanship.

THANK YOU EIJIRO. YOU’ RE A GOOD FRIEND

Kirishima smiled. Bakugou really had grown so much in his time since coming to UA. Kirishima was so proud to be the explosive boy’s friend.

It’s cool ! Don’t sweat it man . Still wanna see that movie tonight ??

He tossed the note over Bakugou’s shoulder, who jumped a little like he was surprised to see it return. Kirishima could hear his pencil scrawling out a reply.

He passed it back, his eyes on Midnight to avoid being caught passing notes.

STILL THINK IT’S A GOOD IDEA?

Totally !! I wanna spend time with you dude

He chewed on his lip. Maybe that was a little too forward. He ended up erasing that bit and starting over.

Yeh man I think it’d be good for you to get out . Being cooped up for days isn’t good for ya

Bakugou held onto the note for a few minutes, maybe contemplating what to say. Kirishima tried to focus on his assignment, but it proved impossible and he ended up circling random answers.

Bakugou twisted his arm behind his back and held the folded note between two fingers. Kirishima plucked it from his grasp and unfurled it again.

COME TO MY ROOM AFTER YOU’RE READY TO GO. WE’RE GONNA GET DINNER FIRST SHITTY HAIR.

Kirishima giggled, and a few heads turned his way. He was too excited to care about the prying eyes or the blush that rose to his cheeks.

He couldn’t help but think about how date-like this seemed. He didn’t want to get his hopes up, but… well.

He couldn’t help it.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hope you guys liked it, and thanks for the read !!

Read part 6 here

8/31/2020

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qqueenofhades · 4 years

Note

so i’ve been following the presidential race closely, and i’ve been a fan of bernie since the start. however, my mom says that he wouldn’t make any big changes, as he’s hard to work with, can’t make the necessary compromises. the example she used was that throughout his senate term, he’s only passed 3 bills, 2 of which were insignificant. i didn’t think of this, as this is my first time closely following an election. what are your thoughts? would a sanders presidency make any real changes?

Oh dear. You really want to get me into trouble this morning, don’t you. Which is 100% not your fault, you are smart to be thinking about all this and asking questions, and by no means do I want you to stop doing that. So I’ll try to explain this as clearly and straightforwardly as I can, and if I get hate for it, alas.

The thing about Bernie is, which certain subsets of his supporters don’t seem to quite appreciate, is that he’s a great candidate, he’s been useful in pushing the public dialogue and political climate of the Democrats further to the left, he obviously inspires a devoted following, and I agree completely with all of his policies. But there’s still a gulf – a very wide gulf – between all that, and actually putting good ideas into political practice in the (very) flawed American system of government as it currently exists. Yes, the system sucks, we know that, and it can feel outrageously frustrating when moderate candidates are offering milquetoast proposals that don’t really get at the underlying structural causes of massive, entrenched inequality, oppression, racism, sexism, etc that these bright young people have rightly identified in the world. That’s why Bernie is appealing as a candidate, and while my primary already happened on Super Tuesday, I would vote for him over Biden if that was my choice right now. But the seeming expectation that we could pick Bernie, he’d win, he’d instantly remake the entire American political system and implement all his changes, and everything would be fine again – and that if we can’t have that option, just not voting is somehow better – is, to say the least, deeply problematic.

I supported Elizabeth Warren for a number of reasons, but one of them was that while she had many progressive policies similar to or almost identical to Bernie’s, she had tangible evidence of being able to get them done (see: the CFPB), to network and form functional relationships with the Democratic establishment, to work within the existing framework of party politics, and to actually do everything she had written her plans for. To certain Bernie supporters, this made her a corporate shill, a heartless witch who wanted to personally kill poor children, an establishment hack, so on and so forth. They attacked her for running in the first place, they attacked her for challenging Bernie in debates, they attacked her for not dropping out before Super Tuesday, they attacked her for dropping out and then not immediately endorsing Sanders, they attacked her supporters, so on and so forth. I’d still vote for Sanders in a heartbeat over Biden, and I will be happy to vote for him if he gets the nomination. But when you’re treating people that way who fundamentally agree with you on all your policies, there’s something wrong.

And no, it’s not a touchy-feely “we need to hold hands and be nice and listen to each other!” respectabillity politics issue, which also gets used as a straw man. Warren was committed to Medicare for All, but she also recognized there needed to be a transition period and that a public option was a good first step (something which Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the other progressive superstar, has also said). Because she accepted any limitations, because she wanted to work in the system, because she didn’t say she’d burn down global capitalism on day 1, this made her a Very Bad Candidate, and people who otherwise agreed with her didn’t think she’d win, so they didn’t vote for her and turned it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. I’m not saying Warren didn’t have flaws. She did. She’s a politician. There were other reasons people might not have been personally drawn to her. But the flack she got for daring to run as a progressive, while also acknowledging the power of the system and that you cannot uproot these structures immediately (she also planned to use executive power to implement some of her proposals on her first day in office), while challenging Bernie… wow.

Because the thing is, Bernie isn’t going to deliver absolutely everything he promises, and that’s not necessarily his fault. No politician in the history of time ever has. If Bernie somehow does get elected, with a Democratic-controlled House and Senate: great! Then yes, he does have a decent chance of passing some planks of his legislative policy. But there are several things you have to keep in mind here, and this is not “Bernie bashing”:

1. Bernie is not, strictly speaking, a Democrat. He’s an independent, he caucuses and votes often with the Democratic party, and he’s obviously running for their presidential nomination. But he’s not part of the party apparatus, he’s proud of that fact, and this is also a selling point for his supporters: look, he’s not part of the Corrupt Establishment! The DNC obviously has deep and systematic problems and is more committed to the bureaucratic status quo than uprooting inequality in America. That’s not up for debate. But as a candidate and as a nominee for the Democratic Party, Bernie would still need to have the backing of that system. If he doesn’t have it, that makes it harder.

2. “What does that matter?” a certain kind of Bernie supporter might cry. “They’re corrupt and rigging the election for Biden! Voter suppression!”

3. Pause for a deep sigh. Yes. There were long lines in many precincts on Super Tuesday. But voters for all candidates had to stand in them anyway. We’ve already discussed how some Sanders supporters treated Warren and her supporters, the ideologically closest candidate to them in the race. If your entire political ethos involves yelling at people and calling them names on the internet, that’s… not really sustainable as an outreach program and getting them into the hard work of day-to-day coalition building. I say this because I WANT to see progressive politics succeed and actually get put into practice, not just narrowly refined tighter and tighter into a certain tiny subset of Pure Beliefs that never amount to a hill of beans in anyone’s lives. You can have the greatest policies possible, but if you never acknowledge or accept any way to DO SOMETHING about them… really, is that a political ethos based on action and compassion or not? I’m voting for Sanders if he gets the nomination, and I’d vote for him if my primary was still upcoming and my first choice (Warren) was out. But I’m pretty fed up at how some camps on that side have been acting, and I am already a progressive. This… isn’t going to help build support beyond people who are already all in for Bernie. People who you will need to win an election.

4. The usual response here is often to blow off moderates and undecided voters and other people who are apparently just too dumb to see what’s going on. Yes! It is frustrating that half of America still wants to vote for Donald Goddamn Trump! But you’re still not winning an election and getting rid of him that way!

5. Bernie does, in fact, have a thin legislative track record, which may or may not matter if he actually becomes president. America has forgotten that the president is not SUPPOSED to make policy like a king, even though the function of the executive branch has been wildly expanded and bloated since W’s (and honestly, Reagan’s) day. The LEGISLATIVE branch, i.e. the House and Senate, is supposed to make policies, and the president EXECUTES them. That is his/her (ha, if only) JOB. But Bernie doesn’t have the kind of connections in the House/Senate that would help him efficiently mobilize policies, at least on his own initiative. Bills and amendments are slow, boring work. They require committee meetings, drafts, multiple readings, changes, deletions, hearings, final passage, etc. Ironically, the person Bernie could probably most count on in the Senate would be… Elizabeth Warren. And she’d obviously help him out, no matter what the rabid Bernie bros think, but it shows that party establishment politics, no matter how distasteful, are part of getting anything done.

6. Bernie’s plans to pay for some of his big policy proposals, such as student loan debt relief (which I am obviously very into) and Medicare for All, involve, according to him, levying a big new tax on Wall Street and the one percent. Passing a major new tax platform that RAISES taxes is always like pulling teeth. That would require passage in the House and Senate. Cool, let’s say the Democrats control both. Are all of them, especially the moderate ones or senators from red-leaning states, going to vote for it? Probably. But it’s not guaranteed. If you’re funding public policy by raising taxes (the one thing the American public has notably hated since 1773) it’s going to be HARD WORK. Let’s say that takes a year to pass. Let’s also guess that a President Sanders would lose either the House or the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, because sitting presidents almost invariably do. Obama had two years to enact some of his policy proposals. Then came 2010 and the Tea Party, and it was, as a deliberate and ongoing GOP choice, gridlock central.

7. You think the Republicans obstructed OBAMA? Centrist corporate Democrat Obama, whose policies were solidly in line with the American establishment, but who happened to have brown skin and a funny name? You ain’t seen NOTHING compared to what they would do to a President Sanders. And as we said, even if the Democrats take Congressional control in 2020, they would invariably lose at least one branch in 2022. We are already figuring in at least a year for Bernie to somehow get his tax plan through. The billionaires are mad. They pour money like crazy into GOP candidates. Welp.

8. So this leaves us… maybe 12-16 months for Bernie to try to enact all his policy reforms, while being deliberately outside of the Democratic party establishment, while having to work with the House and Senate in a way he hasn’t really done before, and accepting limitations on his policies and his political ability, also not something he has really shown an aptitude for.

9. So what? Bernie supporters demand. Are you saying don’t vote for Bernie, it’s hopeless! CORPORATE SHILL!

10. No. Not what I am saying at all. Obviously a Sanders presidency would be light years, LIGHT FUCKING YEARS, better than what we’ve got in there right now. But Sanders (and also Biden) are in their late 70s and have underlying health problems. The likelihood that either of them would serve two full terms is… slim. Obama is two decades younger and we saw how much the presidency aged him. I feel like they’re both flawed candidates in different ways, and my deepest fear is that neither of them can beat Trump, that the Democrats by trying to go for Biden, an Establishment Centrist Old White Man, think they’re playing to a “middle” that doesn’t really exist, and that either progressives or moderates will feel left out in the cold if Biden or Sanders win the nomination. The candidate will have to do the post-convention “pivot,” i.e. trying to appeal to those of their party’s voters who didn’t choose them in the primary, but is Sanders going to do that? His whole platform and the reason his supporters love him is that he doesn’t compromise. Which again, great for ideology, but runs into problems with consistent and actual implementation.

At the end of all this, the takeaway is this: yes, vote for Bernie if you believe in him! But also have a realistic idea of what he will be up against! There is simply no way that he’s going to sweep into office, even if he does get elected, and magically whisk away all the parts of America that we hate. He would have maybe two years to ram through most of his policies, it requires a legislative skill set he hasn’t honed, it rests on passing a major tax package that would be deeply unpopular and cause him to get pummelled in the 2022 midterms, and he has made a career out of operating as the lone wolf. Once again, it’s not a question of whether the current system sucks. We know that it does. But it still exists, and one candidate, no matter how much we agree with him, is not going to change that. He would hopefully manage to pass some of his major policy initiatives. But pretending that there would be no opposition, that it would all be magically fine, and that everyone who DOES raise a note of caution is a cowardly defeatist, a secret capitalist pig, a fake progressive, a secret Trumper (and we’re not the ones threatening to vote for Trump or not at all if our fave doesn’t get the nomination) or whatever else is… not helpful.

Ultimately, if we do get stuck with Biden, we have to hold our noses and vote for him anyway. If we can hold the House and flip the Senate, they can make progressive legislation and Biden is very likely to sign it anyway. The presidential system is not SUPPOSED to rest purely on the personal beliefs of the president, like an absolutist monarch – there was a pretty famous war about it back in the eighteenth century. Biden has displayed no initiative to act like Trump and be a megalomaniacal fascist overlord. We need to take a step AWAY from the insanity that is the current administration, we need to get back to NORMAL, before we can keep going left. Which is what we want! But it happens in stages, if it happens at all, and pretending that it doesn’t, that the only options are the Whole Revolution Now or Nothing, is never, NEVER going to work. And yes, Biden’s positions are generally pretty eye-rolling and I’ll be annoyed if I have to vote for him. But I’ll still do it, because he is NOT equivalent to Trump. Biden got the Violence Against Women Act (which the GOP-controlled Senate notably just failed to reauthorize) funded and passed. Trump has been accused of sexual assault by… what, 22 women? RBG isn’t likely to last another four years. The circuit courts have already been stacked with young, wildly unqualified, hard-right John Birch Society-type judges who will hold their posts for at least 40 years, and this has a direct impact on the kind of cases that are reviewed, confirmed, or struck down even before they get to the Supreme Court. Climate change, the end. There is too much at stake to fuck this up for the sake of Not Getting Everything Now.

As a final note, the Russian propaganda/troll machine has made it clear that they’re posing as Bernie supporters who insist that if Bernie doesn’t win, you shouldn’t vote. They know Bernie supporters are already voicing and disseminating that argument themselves, and they’re going to inflame it as much as possible. So that’s something to keep in mind.

#politics for ts #long post #aroace-space-case #ask

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Our presidential forecast, which launched today, is not the first election forecast that FiveThirtyEight has published since 2016. There was our midterms forecast in 2018, which was pretty accurate in predicting the makeup of the House and the Senate. And there was our presidential primaries model earlier this year, which was a bit of an adventure but mostly notable for being bullish (correctly) on Joe Biden and (incorrectly) on Bernie Sanders. But we’re aware that the publication of our first presidential forecast since 2016 is liable to be fraught.

We’d like to address one thing upfront, though: We think our model did a good job in 2016. Although it had Hillary Clinton favored, it gave Donald Trump around a 30 percent chance of winning on Election Day,1 which was considerably higher than other models, prediction markets, or the conventional wisdom about the race. Moreover, the reasons the model was more bullish on Trump than other forecasts — such as detecting a potential overperformance for Trump in the Electoral College – proved to be important to the outcome.

Also, we’ve found that FiveThirtyEight’s models — including our election forecasts since they were first published in 2008 — have been well calibrated over time. Candidates whom our models claim have a 30 percent chance of winning really do win their races about 30 percent of the time, for example.

So if this were an ordinary election, we’d probably just say screw it, take the 2016 version of our model, make some modest improvements, and press “go.” We’d certainly devote more attention to how the model was presented, but the underlying math behind it would be about the same.

We are not so sure that this is an ordinary election, though. Rather, it is being contested amidst the most serious pandemic to hit the United States since 1918. So we’ve been doing a lot of thinking about how COVID-19 and other news developments could affect various aspects of the race, ranging from its impact on the economy to how it could alter the actual process of voting.

Put another way, while we think “ZOMG 2016!!!” is not a good reason to rethink a model that tended to be pretty cautious in the first place, we think COVID-19 might be.

What’s different from 2016

In the end, our model still isn’t that different from 2016’s, but let’s run through the list of changes. After that, we’ll provide a front-to-back description of how our model works.

First, a number of changes in the model are related to COVID-19:

In forecasting how much the polls could change, we now account for more components related to uncertainty. Two of these components include estimating i) economic uncertainty and ii) the overall volume of important news, both of which are very high under COVID-19. These offset other trends — such as greater polarization — that would lead to less uncertainty.

We’ve put a lot more work into our economic index: i) extending it back to 1880 to capture a fuller range of economic conditions, ii) adjusting it for increased partisanship and iii) developing an economic forecasting component to reflect potential changes in the economy between now and November. This is important because most projections forecast substantial improvement in the economy before November.

We attempt to account for additional uncertainty in Election Day results because turnout will potentially be less predictable given the pandemic.

We allow COVID-19 to be a factor in determining covariance. That is to say, states that have had high rates of COVID deaths and cases (such as Arizona and New York, which otherwise don’t have that much in common politically) could have correlated outcomes. Likewise, we also consider covariance based on a state’s anticipated rate of mail voting.

With the party conventions being substantially scaled down and largely held virtually, we’re applying only half of the usual “convention bounce adjustment” (see below for more on the convention bounce adjustment).

Other changes fall more into the category of continual improvements we’re making to our models that aren’t directly related to COVID-19:

Since 2016, we’ve made various changes to how our polling averages are calculated, as described here.

We now account for changes in how easy it is to vote in each state, as empirically, this yields higher turnout and a higher share of Democratic votes.

The model is now more careful around major events such as presidential debates that can have an outsize impact on candidates’ polling averages. If a candidate gains ground in the polls following one of these events, he will have to sustain that movement for a week or two to get full credit for it.

We’re running only one version of the presidential model this year. Things are complicated enough in an election held during a pandemic without getting into “polls-only” and “polls-plus” forecasts. Nor is there a “now-cast.” Our polling averages are the best way to reflect the current snapshot of the race, but the snapshot is not the same as the projected Election Day outcome.

The rest of how our model works involves three major steps. What follows is a pretty detailed walk-through, but I’ll be more circumspect when discussing steps described at more length elsewhere, such as in our 2016 methodology guide.

Step 1: Collect, analyze and adjust polls

Our national and state polling averages, which we began publishing in June, are the first steps we take in building our election forecast. We detailed our process for constructing those polling averages when we released them, so I’ll just review the highlights here.

Our polling averages are intended to be as inclusive as possible. We don’t want to have to make a lot of arbitrary decisions on which polls to include. But please review our polls policy for some exceptions on when we can’t use a poll in our forecast. Sometimes there are also delays in adding a poll until we can get more information about it.

Polls are weighted based on their sample size and their pollster rating, so higher-quality polls have more influence on the forecast. And if there are a large number of polls from one polling firm, the weight applied to each individual poll is discounted so no one pollster dominates the average.

Our polling averages reflect a blend of two methods. The first is a relatively simple weighted average, and the second is a more complicated method based on calculating a trend line. Of the two, the trend line method tends to be more aggressive. So early on in the campaign, we rely mostly on the more conservative weighted average method, while in the final few weeks, we mostly use the trend line method — that means our polling averages become more aggressive as Election Day nears.

The polling averages are subject to three types of adjustments:

The likely voter adjustment, which reflects that polls of likely voters and registered voters differ in predictable ways, adjusts polls of registered voters2 to make them more comparable to likely voter polls. Generally speaking, this means that Republicans (such as Trump) gain ground relative to Democrats when applying a likely voter screen, although this effect is mitigated when the Republican is an incumbent. Indeed, polls this year that have both a registered voter and likely voter version usually show Trump doing slightly better in the likely voter version. However, he does only modestly better, gaining around 1 percentage point on average.

The house effects adjustment, which detects polls that consistently lean toward one party or that consistently have more (or fewer) undecided voters than other polls of the same states, and adjusts them to correct for this. For example, Rasmussen Reports polls typically have very Republican-leaning results. So this adjustment would account for that. However, polls are allowed to retain at least some of their house effect, since an apparent house effect over a small number of polls could reflect statistical noise. In calculating house effects, the model mostly uses polls from the same state, so a polling firm could theoretically have a Trump-leaning house effect in one state and a Biden-leaning house effect in another.

Finally, we apply a timeline adjustment, which is based on a poll’s recency, and adjusts “old” polls for shifts in the overall race since it was conducted. For instance, say a poll of Arizona last month showed Biden up 3 points there, but there’s been a strong shift toward Trump since then in national polls and polls of similar states such as Nevada. This adjustment would shift that older Arizona poll toward Trump.

As we noted, the calculation of the polling averages is the first step in calculating our forecast. But they are not the same thing.

One time when this distinction is particularly relevant is following major events such as the debates and party conventions. These events sometimes produce big swings in the polls, and our polling averages are designed to be aggressive following these events and reflect the changed state of the race. However, these shifts are not necessarily long-lasting, and after a couple of weeks, the polls sometimes revert to where they were before.

Therefore, the model relies only partly on the polling average of the race after one of these events happens. For instance, say there is a debate on Oct. 1 and you’re looking at the model on, for example, Oct. 5. It will use a blend of the post-debate polling average from Oct. 5 and the pre-debate polling average from Oct. 1. After a week or two (depending on the event) though, the model will fully use the post-event polling average because it no longer necessarily expects a reversion to the mean.

In addition, our presidential model has traditionally applied a convention bounce adjustment that reflects the predictable boost in the polls that a party tends to get following its convention. Clinton surged to some of her biggest leads of the cycle following the Democratic Convention in 2016, for example. However, three factors could mitigate the convention bounce this year.

First, convention bounces have become smaller over time, likely reflecting a reduced number of swing voters because of greater partisanship. Based on current levels of polarization, for instance, we would expect a party to poll about 5 percentage points better at the peak of its convention bounce on the day just after the conclusion of its convention, with the effects fading fairly quickly thereafter. This is down from past convention bounces that could sometimes be measured in the double digits.

Second, as mentioned before, we are applying only half of the usual convention bounce adjustment this year because due to COVID-19, the conventions are being scaled back.

Third, because this year’s Republican National Convention occurs the week immediately following the Demoratic National Convention, the effects could largely cancel each other out — Biden’s bounce could be derailed by Trump’s bounce, in other words. Because Trump’s convention occurs second, the effects of it might linger for slightly longer, but the model expects the net effect to be small given that the Democratic convention will also be fairly fresh in voters’ minds.

Thus, the convention bounce adjustments will be small this year. Polls conducted in the period between the Democratic convention and the Republican convention will be adjusted toward Trump by around 2 or 2.5 percentage points, depending on the precise dates of the polls. And polls in the two to three weeks after the Republican convention will be adjusted toward Biden but only very slightly so (by less than 1 full percentage point).

Step 2: Combine polls with “fundamentals,” such as demographic and economic data

As compared with other models, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast relies heavily on polls. We do, however, incorporate other data in two main ways:

First, the polling average in each state is combined with a modeled estimate of the vote based on demographics and past voting patterns to create what we call an “enhanced snapshot” of current conditions. This is especially important in states where there is little or no polling.

Second, that snapshot is then combined with our priors, based on incumbency and economic conditions, to create a forecast of the Election Day outcome.

Enhancing our polling averages

At the core of the modeled estimate is FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean index, which reflects how the state voted in the past two presidential elections as compared with the national average. In our partisan lean index, 75 percent of the weight is assigned to 2016 and 25 percent to 2012. So note, for example, that Ohio (which turned much redder between 2012 and 2016) is not necessarily expected to continue to become redder. Instead, it might revert somewhat to the mean and become more purple again.

The partisan lean index also contains a number of other adjustments:

We adjust for the home states of the presidential and vice presidential candidates. The size of the home-state adjustment is much larger for presidential candidates than for their running mates. The size of the state is also a factor: Home-state advantages are larger in states with smaller populations. We also allow candidates to be associated with more than one state, in which case the home-state bonus is divided. For Biden, for instance, his primary home state is Delaware (where he lives now), and his secondary state is Pennsylvania (where he was born). And for Trump, his primary home state is New York (where he was born), and his secondary state is Florida (where he officially claims residence).3

We also adjust for what we call a state’s elasticity. Some states such as New Hampshire “swing” more than others in response to national trends because they have a higher proportion of swing voters, which can cause wider fluctuations from cycle to cycle. The elasticity scores we’re using for 2020 are based on a blend of each state’s elasticity in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

And finally, we account for changes in how easy it is to vote in each state based on the Cost of Voting Index, as researchers have found that states with higher barriers to voting tend to produce better results for Republican candidates and states with lower barriers tend to lean more Democratic.4

We then apply the partisan lean index in three slightly different ways to create a modeled estimate of the vote in each state.

First is what we call the “rigid method” because it rigidly follows the partisan lean index. In this technique, we first impute where the race stands nationally based on a blend of state and national polls. (Most of the weight in this calculation actually goes to state polls, though. National polls play relatively little role in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, other than to calculate the trend line adjustment in Step 1.) Then we add a state’s partisan lean index to it. For instance, if we estimate that Biden is ahead by 5 points nationally, and that a state’s partisan lean index is D+10 — meaning it votes 10 points more Democratic than the country as a whole — the rigid method would project that Biden is currently ahead by 15 points there.5

Second is the demographic regression method. Basically, the goal of this technique is to infer what the polls would say in a state based on the polls of other states that have more polling. In this method, adopted from a similar process we applied in our primary model, we use a state’s partisan lean index plus some combination of other variables in a series of regression analyses to try to fit to the current polling in each state. The variables considered include race (specified in several different ways), income, education, urbanization, religiosity6 and an index indicating the severity of the COVID-19 situation in each state, based on the number of cases and deaths per capita as recorded by the COVID Tracking Project. (Technically speaking, the model runs as many as 180 different regressions based on various combinations of these variables, but there are limits on which variables may appear in the regressions together in order to avoid collinearity, as well as how many variables can be included.) We then take a weighted average of all the regressions, where regression specifications with a higher adjusted R2 receive more weight but all regressions receive at least some weight.

Third is the regional regression method. This is much simpler: It consists of a single regression analysis where the dependent variables are a state’s partisan lean index, plus dummy variables indicating which of the four major regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) the state is in.7

We then combine these three estimates to create an ensemble forecast for each state. The rigid method, which is the most accurate historically, receives the majority of the weight, followed by the demographic regression and then the regional regression.

Then, we combine the ensemble forecast with a state’s polling average to create an enhanced snapshot of the current conditions in each state. The weight given to the polling average depends on the volume of polling in each state and how recently the last poll of the state was conducted. As of the forecast launch (Aug. 12), around 55 percent of the weight goes to the polling average rather than to the ensemble in the average state. However, in well-polled states toward the end of the campaign, as much as 97 or 98 percent of the weight could go toward the polling average. Conversely, states that have few polls rely mostly on the ensemble technique (and states that have no polls use the ensemble in lieu of a polling average).

Next, we combine the enhanced snapshots in each state to create a national snapshot, which is essentially our prediction of the national popular vote margin in an election held today. The national snapshot accounts for projected voter turnout in each state based on population growth since 2016, changes in how easy it is to vote since 2016, and how close the race is in that state currently — closer-polling states tend to have higher turnout. National polls are not used in the national snapshot; it’s simply a summation of the snapshots in the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

We know this is starting to get pretty involved — we’re really in the guts of the model now — but there is another important step. Our national snapshot is not the same thing as our prediction of the Election Day outcome. Instead, our prediction blends the polling-driven snapshot with a “fundamentals forecast” based on economic conditions and whether an incumbent is seeking reelection.

Polls vs. Fundamentals

I’m on the record as saying that I think presidential forecasting models based strictly on “fundamental” factors like economic conditions are overrated. Without getting too deep into the weeds, it’s easy to “p-hack” your way to glory with these models because there are so many ways to measure “the economy” but only a small sample size of elections for which we have reliable economic data. The telltale sign of these problems is that models claiming to predict past elections extremely well often produce inaccurate — or even ridiculous — answers when applied to elections in which the result is unknown ahead of time. One popular model based on second-quarter GDP, for example, implies that Biden is currently on track to win nearly 1,000 electoral votes — a bit of a problem since the maximum number theoretically achievable is 538.8

At the same time, that doesn’t mean the fundamentals are of no use at all. They can provide value and gently nudge your forecast in the right direction — if you use them carefully (although they’re hard to use carefully amidst something like the pandemic).

So, since 2012, we have used an index of economic conditions in our presidential forecast. In its current incarnation, it includes six variables:

Jobs, as indicated by nonfarm payrolls.

Spending, as indicated by real personal consumption expenditures.

Income, as measured by real disposable personal income.

Manufacturing, as measured by industrial production.

Inflation, based on the consumer price index.9

And the stock market, based on the S&P 500.

All variables are standardized so that they have roughly the same mean and standard deviation — and, therefore, have roughly equal influence on the index — for economic data since 1946. The index is then based on readings of these variables in the two years leading up to the election (e.g., from November 2018 through November 2020 for this election) but with a considerably heavier weight placed on the more recent data, in particular, the data roughly six months preceding the election. Where possible, the index is calibrated based on “vintage” economic data — that is, data as it was published in real time — rather than on data as later revised.

Although the quality of economic data is more questionable prior to the 1948 election, we have also attempted to create an approximate version of the index for elections going back to 1880 based on the data that we could find. (It’s extremely important, in our view, to expand the sample size for this sort of analysis, even if we have to rely on slightly less reliable data to do so.) Our economic index for elections dating to 1880 (see below) is expressed as a Z-score, where a score of zero reflects an average economy. And, as you can see, extremely negative economic conditions tend to predict doom for the incumbent party (as in 1932, 1980 and 2008).

The economy is a noisy predictor of presidential success

FiveThirtyEight’s economic index as of Election Day, since 1880,* where a score of zero reflects an average economy, a positive score a strong economy and a negative score a weak one

Year Economic Index Year Economic Index 1880 +1.37 1948 -0.29 1884 -0.18 1952 +0.21 1888 -0.25 1956 +0.07 1892 +0.71 1960 -0.01 1896 -0.15 1964 +0.70 1900 +0.56 1968 +0.23 1904 -0.23 1972 +0.46 1908 -1.03 1976 +0.26 1912 +0.13 1980 -1.71 1916 +0.75 1984 +0.86 1920 -1.52 1988 +0.09 1924 +0.44 1992 -0.29 1928 +0.15 1996 +0.36 1932 -2.34 2000 +0.36 1936 +1.55 2004 +0.01 1940 +0.77 2008 -1.34 1944 +1.01 2012 -0.10 2016 +0.08

*Values prior to the 1948 election are based on more limited data and should be considered rough estimates.

But, overall, the relationship between economic conditions and the incumbent party’s performance is fairly noisy. In fact, we found that the economy explains only around 30 percent of the variation in the incumbent party’s performance, meaning that other factors explain the other 70 percent.

We do try to account for some of those “other” factors, although we’ve found they make only a modest difference. For instance, we also account for whether the president is an elected incumbent (like Trump this year or Barack Obama in 2012), an incumbent who followed the line of succession into office (like Gerald Ford in 1976) or if there is no incumbent at all (as in 2008 or 2016). We also account for polarization based on how far apart the parties are in roll call votes cast in the U.S. House. Periods of greater polarization (such as today in the U.S.) are associated with closer electoral margins and also smaller impacts of economic conditions and incumbency.

One additional complication is that the condition of the economy at any given moment prior to the election may not resemble what it eventually looks like in November, which is what our model tries to predict. Thus, the model makes a simple forecast for each of the six economic variables, which accounts for some mean-reversion, but is also based on the recent performance of the stock market (yes, it has some predictive power) and surveys of professional economists.10

Although we’ll discuss this at more length in the feature that accompanies our forecast launch, the fundamentals forecast is not necessarily as bad as you might think for Trump, despite awful numbers in categories such as GDP. One of the economic components that the model considers (income) has been strong thanks to government subsidies in the form of the CARES Act, for instance, and two others (inflation and the stock market) have been reasonably favorable, too.

In addition, Trump is an elected incumbent, the economy is expected to improve between the forecast launch (August 12) and November, and the polarized nature of the electorate limits the damage to him to some degree. Thus, one shouldn’t conclude that Trump is a huge underdog on the basis of the economy alone, although he’s also not a favorite to win reelection as elected incumbents typically are.

The closer to Election Day, the more our model relies on polls

Share of the weight assigned to polls and the “fundamentals,” by number of days until the election

Days until election Polls Fundamentals 0 100% 0% 5 97 3 10 94 6 25 89 11 50 84 16 75 79 21 100 74 26 150 65 35 200 57 43 250 47 53

However, our model assigns relatively little weight to the fundamentals forecast, and the weight will eventually decline to zero by Election Day. (Although the fundamentals forecast does do a good job of forecasting most recent elections, there are a lot more misses once you extend the analysis before 1948. So keep that in mind in the table, as the assigned weight is based on the entire data set.) Nonetheless, here is how much the model weights the fundamentals up until the election.

As of forecast launch in mid-August, for instance, the model assigns 77 percent of the weight to the polling-based snapshot and 23 percent of the weight to the fundamentals. In fact, the fundamentals actually help Trump at the margin (they aren’t good for him, but they’re better than his polls), so the model shifts the snapshot in each state slightly toward Trump in the forecast of the Election Day outcome. States with higher elasticity scores are shifted slightly more in this process.

Step 3: Account for uncertainty and simulate the election thousands of times

As complicated though it may seem, everything I’ve described up until this point is, in some sense, the easy part of developing our model. There’s no doubt that Biden is comfortably ahead as of the forecast launch in mid-August, for example, and the choices one makes in using different methods to average polls or combine them with other data isn’t likely to change that conclusion.

What’s trickier is figuring out how that translates into a probability of Biden or Trump winning the election. That’s what this section is about.

Before we proceed further, one disclaimer about the scope of the model: It seeks to reflect the vote as cast on Election Day, assuming that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. It does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.

That does not mean it’s safe to assume these rules and norms will be respected. (If we were sure they would be respected, there wouldn’t be any need for this disclaimer!) But it’s just not in the purview of the sort of statistical analysis we conduct in our model to determine the likelihood they will or won’t be respected.

We do think, however, that well-constructed polls and models can provide a useful benchmark if any attempts to manipulate the election do occur. For instance, a candidate (in a state with incomplete results because mail ballots have yet to be counted) declaring themselves the winner in a state where the model had given them an 0.4 percent chance of winning would need to be regarded with more suspicion than one where they’d had a 40 percent chance going in (although a 40 percent chance of winning is by no means a sure thing either, obviously).

With that disclaimer out of the way, here are the four types of uncertainty that the model tries to account for:

National drift, or how much the overall national forecast could change between now and Election Day.

National Election Day error, or how much our final forecast of the national popular vote could be off on Election Day itself.

Correlated state error, which reflects errors that could occur across multiple states along geographic or regional lines — for instance, as was relevant in 2016, a systematic underperformance relative to polls for the Democratic candidate in the Midwest.

State-specific error, an error relative to our forecast that affects only one state.

The first type of error, national drift, is probably the most important one as of the launch — that is, the biggest reason Biden might not win despite currently enjoying a fairly wide lead in the polls is that the race could change between now and November.

National drift is calculated as follows:

Constant x (Days Until Election)^⅓ x Uncertainty Index

That is, it is a function of the cube root of the number of days until the election11 times the FiveThirtyEight Uncertainty Index, which I’ll describe in a moment. (Note that the use of the cube root implies that polls do not become more accurate at a linear rate, but rather that there is a sharp increase in accuracy toward the end of an election. Put another way, August is still early as far as polling goes.)

The uncertainty index is a new feature this year, although it reflects a number of things we did previously, such as accounting for the number of undecided voters. In the spirit of our economic index, it also contains a number of measures that are historically correlated with greater (or lesser) uncertainty but are also correlated with one another in complicated ways. And under circumstances like these (not to mention the small sample size of presidential elections), we think it is better to use an equally-weighted blend of all reasonable metrics rather than picking and choosing just one or two metrics.

The components of our uncertainty index are as follows:

The number of undecided voters in national polls. More undecided voters means more uncertainty.

The number of undecided plus third-party voters in national polls. More third-party voters means more uncertainty.

Polarization, as measured elsewhere in the model, is based on how far apart the parties are in roll call votes cast in the U.S. House. More polarization means less uncertainty since there are fewer swing voters.

The volatility of the national polling average. Volatility tends to predict itself, so a stable polling average tends to remain stable.

The overall volume of national polling. More polling means less uncertainty.

The magnitude of the difference between the polling-based national snapshot and the fundamentals forecast. A wider gap means more uncertainty.

The standard deviation of the component variables used in the FiveThirtyEight economic index. More economic volatility means more overall uncertainty in the forecast.

The volume of major news, as measured by the number of full-width New York Times headlines in the past 500 days, with more recent days weighted more heavily. More news means more uncertainty.

In 2020, measures No. 1 through 5 all imply below-average uncertainty. There aren’t many undecided voters, there are no major third-party candidates, polarization has been high and polls have been stable. Measure No. 6 suggests average uncertainty. But metrics No. 7 and 8 imply extremely high uncertainty; there has been a ton of news related to COVID-19 and other major stories, like the protests advocating for police reform in response to the death of George Floyd — not to mention the impeachment trial of Trump earlier this year. Likewise, there has been as much volatility in economic data as at any time since the Great Depression.

On the one hand, the sheer number of uncertainties unique to 2020 indicate the possibility of a volatile election, but on the other hand, there are also a number of measures that signal lower uncertainty, like a very stable polling average. So when we calculate the overall degree of uncertainty for 2020, our model’s best guess is that it is about average relative to elections since 1972. That average, of course, includes a number of volatile elections such as 1980, 1988 and 1992, where there were huge swings in the polls over the final few months of the campaign, along with elections such as 2004 and 2012 where polls were pretty stable. As voters consume even more economic- and pandemic-related news — and then experience events like the conventions and the debates — it’s not yet clear whether the polls will remain stable or begin to swing around more.

It’s also not entirely clear how this might all translate into the national Election Day error — that is, how far off the mark our final polling averages are — either. In calculating Election Day error, we use a different version of the uncertainty index that de-emphasizes components No. 6, 7 and 8, since those components pertain mostly to how much we expect the polls to change between now and the election, rather than the possibility of an Election Day misfire.

Still, our approach to calculating Election Day error is fairly conservative. In order to have a larger sample size, the calculation is based on the error in final polls in elections since 1936, rather than solely on more recent elections. While polls weren’t as far off the mark in 2016 as is generally reputed (national polls were fairly accurate, in fact), it’s also not clear that the extremely precise polls in the final weeks of 2004, 2008 and 2012 will be easy to replicate given the challenges in polling today. Given the small sample sizes, we also use a fat-tailed distribution for many of the error components, including the national Election Day error, to reflect the small — but not zero — possibility of a larger error than what we’ve seen historically.

There could also be some challenges related to polling during COVID-19. In primary elections conducted during the pandemic, for instance, turnout was hard to predict. In some ways, the pandemic makes voting easier (expanded options to vote by mail in many states), but it also makes it harder in other ways (it’s difficult to socially distance if you must vote in person).

This is a rough estimate because there are a lot of confounding variables — including the end of the competitive portion of the Democratic presidential primary — but we estimate that the variability in turnout was about 50 percent higher in primary elections conducted after the pandemic began in the U.S. than those conducted beforehand. Empirically, we know that states that experience a sharp change in turnout from one cycle to the next are harder to forecast, too. So we estimate that a 50 percent increase in error when predicting turnout will result in a 20 percent increase in error when predicting the share of the vote each party receives.

Therefore, we increase national Election Day error, correlated state error and state-specific error by 20 percent relative to their usual values because of how the coronavirus could affect turnout and the process of voting. Note that this still won’t be enough to cover extraordinary developments such as mail ballots being impounded. But it should help to reflect some of the additional challenges in polling and holding an election amidst a pandemic.

When it comes to simulating the election — we’re running 40,000 simulations each time the model is updated — the model first picks two random numbers to reflect national drift (how much the national forecast could change) and national Election Day error (how off our final forecast of the national popular vote could be) that are applied more or less uniformly12 to all states. However, even if you somehow magically knew what the final national popular vote would be, there would still be additional error at the state level. A uniform national swing would not have been enough to cost Clinton the Electoral College in 2016, for example. But underperformance relative to the polls concentrated in the Midwestern swing states did.

In fact, we estimate that at the end of the campaign, most of the error associated with state polling is likely to be correlated with errors in other states. That is to say, it is improbable that there would be a major polling error in Michigan that wouldn’t also be reflected in similar states such as Wisconsin and Ohio.

Therefore, to calculate correlated polling error, the model creates random permutations based on different demographic and geographic characteristics. In one simulation, for instance, Trump would do surprisingly well with Hispanic voters and thus overperform in states with large numbers of Hispanics. In another simulation, Biden would overperform his polls in states with large numbers of Catholics. The variables used in the simulations are as follows:

Race (white, Black, Hispanic, Asian)

Religion (evangelical Christians, mainline protestants, Catholic, Mormon, other religions, atheist/nonreligious)

A state’s partisan lean index in 2016 and in 2012

Latitude and longitude

Region (North, South, Midwest, West)

Urbanization

Median household income

Median age

Gender

Education (the share of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher)

Immigration (the share of a state that is part of its voting-eligible population)

The COVID-19 severity index (see Step 2)

The share of a state’s vote that is expected to be cast by mail

One mathematical property of correlated polling errors is that states with demographics that resemble those of the country as a whole tend to have less polling error than those that don’t. Underestimating Biden’s standing among Mormons wouldn’t cause too many problems in a national poll, or in a poll of Florida, for example. But it could lead to a huge polling error in Utah. Put another way, states that are outliers based on some combination of the variables listed above tend to be harder to predict.

Finally, the model randomly applies some residual, state-specific error in each state. This tends to be relatively small, and is primarily a function of the volume of polling in each state, especially in states that have had no polling at all. If you’re wondering why Trump’s chances are higher than you might expect in Oregon, for example, it’s partly because there have been no polls there as of forecast launch.

Odds and ends

Whew — that’s pretty much it! But a few random bullet points that don’t fit neatly into the categories above.

The model accounts for the fact that Maine and Nebraska award one electoral vote each to the winner of each congressional district. In fact, these congressional districts have their own forecast pages, just as the states do. For the most part, though, the statewide forecasts in Maine and Nebraska just reflect the sum of the district forecasts. However, because not all polls provide district-level breakdowns in these states, the model also makes inferences from statewide polls of Maine and Nebraska, too. In total, the model calculates a forecast in 54 jurisdictions: the two congressional districts in Maine, the three in Nebraska, the other 48 states and Washington, D.C.

In 2016, as well as in backtesting the model in certain past years (i.e., 1980, 1992) we designated “major” third-party candidates such as Gary Johnson and Ross Perot. We defined major as (i) a candidate who is on the ballot almost everywhere, (ii) who is included in most polls and (iii) who usually polls in at least the mid-to-high single digits. There is no such candidate in 2020.

However, we do predict votes for “other” candidates in each state. The predictions are based on how many third-party candidates appear on the ballot in the state,13 whether write-in votes are permitted, how much of the vote a state has historically given to third-party candidates, and how competitive the state is (third-party candidates historically receive fewer votes in swing states).

Electoral College ties (269-269) are listed as such in the model output. This is a change from past years, where we used various methods to break the ties. We do not account for the possibility of faithless electors or candidates other than Trump and Biden winning electoral votes.

Got any other questions or see anything that looks wrong? Please drop us a line.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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mystery-star · 4 years

Text

Threshold of Space - Chapter 1 To Pass or not to Pass

Pairing: Spock x OC

Warnings: swearing, mentions of death

Words: 6246

All Parts:

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With a deep frown, the brunette stared at her fellow cadet who had just passed out in the captain’s chair.

“I guess that’s it then” Carissa’s fellow helmsman muttered to himself “The simulation is over” he got up with a shrug

“Wait a moment” she called “This may be a simulation, yes. But if this was real, you couldn’t just get up and leave”

“And what do you suggest we do, Wiley?” he asked

“We need an Acting Captain”

“We have no First Officer”

“Then we vote” she said “But quickly” she added, glancing at the screen to the many Klingon vessels

“If you’re so eager to complete this damned thing you do it” Carissa shrugged as some others murmured in agreement

“Is there anyone else who wants to take charge?” no one said a word “And is anyone not happy with me taking over?”

“Do whatever you want, Wiley. The examiners will stop this scenario now anyway since Evan is out, so better hurry if you want to shine”

“Then I shall take over until they declare that it is over. Now get back to your post” with a shrug, David did as she ordered. It felt strange to have that much responsibility and she was glad that this was only a simulation.

“Yes, Captain” he said mockingly as he sat back down “What are your next orders, huh? Shall we all go to a corner and cry?”

“A bit more seriousness. We are under attack” she replied and turned around to the Communication officer. “Jackson, can you reach the Kobayashi Maru?”

“I’ll try” he said and gave an affirmative answer a couple of seconds later

“Good. Ask them if their transporter is working, if not tell them to evacuate their ship”

“The Klingons would continue to fire on the pods”

“I know. But I am sure they won’t waste their time to follow all of the pods. Besides we can beam them aboard like that. Now do as I say or it’ll be too late”

“We can’t save everyone” she nodded.

“But we can try to get as many out as possible. We should start a diversionary maneuver. Let’s give these Klingons a nice taste of our Phasers.” she rubbed her hands and prepared everything before turning to the fellow helmsman

“Take evasive actions, 60 degrees to the right”

“But their shields are up, firing on them will be of no use”

“Do you think I am blind? I know that, I only want to distract them a bit to give the Maru time for the evacuation so that we can beam them aboard later on. Jackson, let us know when they are ready and sent off their first pods”

“Yes, Ma’am” Carissa couldn’t help but smile. Although she had never wanted to be Captain, it was nice to be addressed so formally. “They’re ready” Jackson informed them only two minutes later.

“Very well. Tell the transporter room to lock the signal on as many pods as possible and beam the people inside aboard”

“The Klingons are firing on us” David shouted

“Keep diverting” Carissa told the other helmsman “Let’s make it difficult for them to get us. Jackson, keep in contact with the transporter room and tell them to keep us updated as on how many crew members they could rescue.” he confirmed and did as requested.

“Shields at 47 percent. Three more hits like the others and we’re dead”

“Inform that Kobayashi Maru that we might not be able to save everyone. Maybe they should use shuttlecrafts, so that we can beam them aboard quicker and needn’t lock signals on different pods”

“Captain, they want us to stay and rescue them” Carissa bit her lip. Of course, they wanted to be saved. But they had to understand that there was no sense in staying to get them killed as well.

“Shields at 19 percent”

“That’s it. We have to leave. Head back to… the nearest space station. Transporter room, how many people could we save?”

“48” Jackson told them

“That’s not too bad” Carissa muttered more to herself “Inform the Starfleet Command we’re heading back to the station and that we could only save 48 crew members of the Kobayashi Maru” she wiped some sweat from her brow with her sleeve

“Captain, one of the ships is following us”

“Shit” she could feel the blood leaving her face “Faster. Give us everything the Trainor has”

“Aye, Aye” Jackson said but after about a minute later, his mien changed “Ma’am the Warp drive failed. We’re only running on impulse now” she got even paler.

“The Klingon vessel’s slowed down to sublight speed as well and seems to be getting ready to destroy us”

“Fuck” she took a deep breath. Although she understood why it had been programmed that it won’t work like you wanted and add complication after complication, she made a mental note to have a serious word with Spock for scaring and challenging her that much. Somehow she wished the examiners would stop the simulation so that she could get out of here.

“What now? We can’t get away and they’ll destroy us”

“Hail them. Hail them!” she shouted in panic. Jackson merely nodded and pressed some buttons

“They don’t answer”

“Then send them a message that we surrender”

“What are you planning to do?” she licked her lip

“We’re trying to bait them by telling they can have the ship. Once they lower their shields to beam on board we fire everything we got at them”

“That may work” David mused.

“No it won’t” Jackson said bitterly “Still no answer”

“Tell them we can have the ship, which means they can get to the station without being noticed. Try it on every frequency we’ve got. They need to answer!” she got up and pressed a button on the arm rest of the Captain’s chair

“Crew of the USS Trainor. We need to evacuate the ship” she repeated the order before sitting down at the helm control “That applies for you as well. Out with you” she told the bridge crew. David and his friend got up, the rest remained seated.

“I’m still trying to reach them” Jackson explained. “But I’m pessimistic about it” another thundering noise and blinking lights told them that the Trainor had been hit again.

“The shields are down. The next hit will destroy us”

“Leave too. I’ll try to distract them a little longer” she took David’s seat and tried to dodge a little

“That won’t work with impulse drive”

“I know. But I can’t just sit here… and I ordered you to go and save yourself”

“What’s going on?” she heard a slurry voice behind her and Carissa saw Evan getting up slowly

“Well you passed out and I took over the bridge and as it seems we’re all gonna die now. We’re evacuating the ship” she told him “Go and get a rescue pod” he looked at her and nodded. However, he didn’t make it out because the Trainer was it one last time and all lights went out. Carissa had failed them and they all died. Shortly after the door opened and Admiral Foster stepped into the room.

“Cadet Cook.”. Evans, who was talking to David, wanting to know what had happened, looked at him

“Did I pass?”

“Yes you did pass. Pass out!” he showed him to follow with a simple head movement. “The rest may leave. Except for Cadet Wiley. You’ll come with me as well and wait in front of my office” she hung her head and got up after a nod. It seemed like she was in trouble. She shouldn’t have taken over like that. When they were going to the Admiral’s office Evan shot her angry glares more than once. Now she wished she had just followed David’s lead and left the simulation after his friend got unconscious. Once they reached the office, Admiral Foster told the male cadet to go inside before turning to her and ordering her to wait here. With a nod she leaned against the wall and let out a sigh. She really was in trouble. If only she wouldn’t be punished for what she did. It seemed like the only logical thing she could do had this been a real situation. Although, if a cadet passed out during a written exam, you couldn’t take over for them either. So it had to be a violation of the rules. But David should be here too. He was the one who had been defiant all the time and left his post before he was relieved off duty.

“Cadet Wiley” at the sound of the familiar voice she turned to see Spock, a professor and her boyfriend, coming towards her.

“Professor” she commented, smiling and holding herself back from touching him since they could be seen “What are you doing here?”

“Admiral Foster had let me know that he wanted to speak to me about the programming of the Kobayashi Maru scenario. As it seems, a cadet succeeded in finding an option which I have not considered and therefore not programmed. I would ask you what you are doing here but seeing that you have been participating in the simulation I can only conclude that Admiral Foster wanted to speak to you as well. The reasons for this, however, must be unknown to you as well”

“Yes, Sir” she said “But is an option missing good or bad? I mean isn’t it a bad sign if someone managed to… I don’t know reach the limits of the simulation?”

“It is neither. But once the addition programmed, this option may provide a whole new scenario, which would theoretically increase the chance of effectively winning by 6.3 percent”

“And what kind of addition are we speaking of?”

“I was told that Cadet Cook tried to hail the Klingons upon being alone with one of their ships. But that could not happen since I have not made an interaction with the enemy in that situation available yet” now she actually smirked

“It seems like you’re misinformed. No offence. I was the one who tried to contact the Klingons. Not Evan” he raised an eyebrow

“I must admit, I did not expect that. Since it was Cadet Cook taking the test, I figured that it had to be him as Admiral Foster did not say any names. May I ask how it came you were the one to order hailing the enemy ship?”

“Oh… Evan passed out just after we realized there suddenly were nine Klingon ships and that they started firing on us.”

“He has lost consciousness? But that would have resulted the examiner in ending the simulation”

“Well they didn’t… I mean as soon as I realized that Evan was out, I told the others they had to stay in place until we were told that it was over… so uh… it happened that I became Acting Captain and gave new orders” again he raised his eyebrow

“Then the examiners have decided to see how you were doing until the end. Now I believe I know the reason you are here. Admiral Foster must want to discuss your performance with you”

“What?” Carissa shrieked “Do-do you think they marked me?”

“It is possible. However, given the fact that you were not actually designated to take this test, I believe that they will not make this an official evaluation unless you choose to. But you did show great quality by taking over charge in such a situation” she shrugged

“But are you not mad that I… well… broke your simulation?”

“As I said, what happened is neither positive nor negative, it merely showed that I did not consider all possibilities, cadet”

“But there must have been other cadets that tried to contact the Klingons?”

“There were, but that is something I have thought of. However, you were the first one who managed to be alone with only one of the Klingon ships. It is only logical that the Klingons will behave differently when they are on their own”

“So you could contact them at the battle place but not when you’re further away because of the different reactions?”

“Exactly. As long as they have back up, Klingons would never negotiate and merely tell us their conditions for our surrender. Provided the fact they choose to not just destroy us without giving us a chance”

“This means when Jackson said we received no answer from the Klingons this was because the simulation could not provide any?”

“Correct”

“And do you think it is likely they would have agreed to take over our ship and beaming on board?”

“I would say so. While I cannot tell you how high the chances are exactly, I would estimate them to be about 73 percent, depending on how damaged the USS Trainor is at that point. However, the chance that they would kill your crew once they are on board is at 96.2 percent”

“Well I did not actually plan to let them take over the ship, Sir. I just wanted them to lower their shields so that we could fire at them and destroy them”

“That sounds logical and the chances of success are about 81.5 percent”

“So you’re saying I could have done it if you had had already programmed the option to contact the Klingons when…” the door opened and Evans walked out

“He’s asking for you” he said, not sounding very happy and shot an angry glare at her. It was not her fault he passed out, so why was he hostile towards her? After all it was his idea and request to be an actor in this simulation.

“Cadet Wiley, please come in”

“Coming, Admiral” she informed him and turned back to her boyfriend “See you later, I guess?” she asked quietly

“If I am not obliged to make the modifications right away, yes” she nodded and entered the office.

“Cadet Wiley” Foster said with a smile. Maybe Spock was right and he wasn’t mad at her after all? “Is Instructor Spock already here?”

“Yes, he arrived some minutes ago”

“Could you ask him in as well?” this made her heart sink. What if he had found out about their relationship? Or had he just heard the rumors and thought there was more to it? She’d rather be in trouble for taking over during the test. Because if he found out about the relationship id didn’t only affect her but Spock as well. She nodded and did as she was told. Her boyfriend entered and closed the door

“You have asked to see me, Admiral?”

“Indeed. I take it you know Cadet Wiley?”

“I do. She is in one of my classes” the Admiral nodded.

“Good. And you know she was supposed to take part in Cadet Cook’s Kobayashi Maru scenario?” Spock nodded “However, he passed out after mere minutes into the simulation as more and more ships arrived”

“And Cadet Wiley took over. I have been told already”

“Yes. That is the reason you are her. Because I wanted you to see her performance and tell me what you think the result would have been. After all she has tried something that was not programmed”

“Of course” he crossed his arm and when Admiral Foster showed them a video of the simulation, starting from the point where Evan passed out, Carissa wanted to drop dead. She couldn’t help but throw occasional glances to either of the males, to find out what they were thinking. Oddly, she got more information from the Vulcan’s stoic mien than from the older man. Finally, the tape ended and the brunette breathed out in relief. “Interesting” was her boyfriend’s only comment.

“What do you think would have been the outcome had she managed to contact the Klingons?”

“I am sure they would have agreed to take over the ship after Cadet Wiley told them of the opportunity to get into the station unnoticed. As for the planned destruction of the bird of prey, I cannot say if it would have succeeded before the USS Trainer would have been destroyed.”

“Alright, thank you, Commander” Admiral Foster nodded at him “I would now like to talk to Cadet Wiley alone and have a word with you again afterwards” Spock agreed and left the room.

“Am-am I in trouble because of what I did, Sir?” she asked carefully.

“You are not. Captain Thomas wanted to stop the scenario once your fellow cadet was out but when I saw that you were taking over I told him to wait. I wanted to see how you would react and I must say I am rather impressed. We had two similar cases where the cadet taking the test either left or passed out. But no other participant of the simulation had the idea to finish the mission in their stead. You showed a great sense of responsibility and your performance was indeed impressive, especially when you consider that you decided everything spontaneously since you had no time to prepare yourself for the scenario”

“So you are saying what I did was right?”

“Yes. And therefore the other examiners and I have decided to evaluate your performance if that is your wish”

“This means you will mark me and make it official?”

“Exactly. And I strongly advise you to let us do this for all I have seen you could actually pass. If not, what do you have to lose?”

“You are right, Sir” she smiled “Then I would like you to evaluate me. Although I don’t think I would ever want to be Captain. It is too much responsibility”

“No one says you have to become Captain just because you passed the Kobayashi Maru scenario”

“Oh right”

“Very well. Then I will inform the other examiners and inform you about the outcome as soon as possible” she nodded with a smile.

“I don’t need it immediately” she assured him.

“Alright. That is it from my part, Cadet Wiley. You may leave”

“Thank you, Sir. Goodbye” she nodded at him and left the room, throwing a short smile at Spock as he got called inside.

-oO0Oo-

“How was the simulation?” her best friend and dorm mate Nicole asked as they were on their way to Diplomacy class the next day “Did Evan kill you all?”

“Actually I killed us all”

“How that? Did you do something wrong?”

“No” she grinned and told her the story and her friend laughed

“So you not only brought the test to its limits but you probably also passed the whole thing?”

“Yeah”

“Instructor Spock must be fuming”

“He’s Vulcan” Carissa only said

“Right” she chuckled “But if he lets you fail his class you’ll know why”

“I don’t need him for that. I can fail by myself” she sighed. She just couldn’t get the knack of it and hated almost everything about the subject. The only thing that made the lessons bearable was the fact that Spock taught them.

“For heaven’s sake. Just go and get help. It’s of no use if you fail”

“I-I really don’t want to bother him” besides, when they started their relationship they had agreed they wouldn’t talk about anything that related to the courses so that she would not be in an advantage.

“He’s our teacher. He is obliged to help” Carissa shrugged

“I’ll see” they arrived at the classroom and talked to other classmates. Suddenly Evan appeared, angrily tapping Carissa’s shoulder.

“What did you do?”

“What? About yesterday?”

“You just took over!”

“So what? I thought if this was real that was supposed what someone should have done”

“You stole my chance”

“Look, if this had been real we couldn’t have just waited until you were conscious again. I am sure the examiners wouldn’t have paused the scenario if I had done nothing”

“I swear if you benefit from my attempt, you’ll pay”

“Mr Cook. I hope you won’t make these threats come true or you will be in serious trouble” they heard Professor Bennett’s voice behind them and shot a quick glare as he walked past the flock of cadets to open the door. Evans glared daggers at his classmate

“Your lover may have saved you this time. But I will find ways” he whispered in her ear before leaving.

“Oh God. Is he now claiming too that you have something going on with Bennett?”

“Yeah”

“Just because of your grades? Or because he’s mad?”

“No idea. But someone needs to be on top of the class. I can’t help that it’s me in most classes…”

“Well I need to admit, your grades are not just top of the class. They’re perfect almost every time. Not that I’d believe the rumors but I can understand that they think like that.” Carissa shrugged.

“Just let them talk. I don’t care. I know the truth and so do my friends” technically, her friend’s didn’t know the whole truth. Although she wasn’t dating Bennet, she still was in a relationship with another professor.

“That’s the spirit. As long as no one suspects you’re actually liaised with a professor” she felt her heart bumping

“Exactly” they entered the classroom and sat down.

-oO0Oo-

The rest of the day flew by and before she knew it, Carissa was trying to complete some homework when she saw a new message. This must be her results from the Kobayashi Maru and her heart made a leap. A part of her wanted read it now, but she decided against it, wanting to finish her homework first.

“What’s this? Got a love letter?” she was asked

“Nothing” she replied, not wanting to brag that she completed the Kobayashi Maru. But she knew that should she pass, sooner or later everyone would know. And she was quite afraid of Evan’s reaction.

“Why don’t you read?”

“I can imagine what it is. And I want to finish this first” she looked at her friend before focusing on her essay again. But Lucie just crossed her arms

“Fine, then I’ll hack into your account and read the message myself”

“Stop this” she hissed.

“Oh come on, Carry, I want to know what it says. Is it really from Admiral Foster?”

“Yes. As the name says”

“Please?” she looked at her friend with puppy eyes. Carissa sighed and read the document, ignoring her friends, exited shrieks and handclapping.

“How old are you exactly?” she shook her head but grinned. The grin disappeared when her eyes scanned the evaluation “Oh my God. Oh my God” she couldn’t help but shriek

“Good news?”

“Yes. I passed the Kobayshi Maru scenario”

“Wait what? When? How?” once again she found herself telling the story, this time with a broad smile. “That sounds fantastic. You’d make a perfect captain”

“I’m not so sure. I’d prefer to be more of an advisor. Then I don’t need to be the one making a decision”

“Fair enough” she squeezed her shoulder “Oh Carry, I can’t believe it. Not many pas this simulation. And you weren’t even prepared”

“I think they took that into consideration as well”

“What are we even sitting here?” Lucie asked and put her PADD away “Let’s go and celebrate” Carissa shrugged, throwing a glance at her essay. She would finish it later as she probably couldn’t concentrate.

-oO0Oo-

In the next morning she regretted her choice. The moment she walked into Spock’s classroom she realized that she had forgotten to finish her essay. Trying to hide in her seat, she took out her things and stared at the table. Her head only snapped up when the lesson started.

“Your essays from last week have been graded” the whole class gasped.

“Will this grade be official for the semester grade?” a classmate asked

“No, but it is for you to see how you are doing” he took a bundle of papers “please hand in your new ones within the next five minutes.” Carissa kept getting more and more nervous and she opened the corrected document. She stared at the numbers of her essay and let out a sad huff 37.7 out of 100. Nevertheless she felt a slight smirk appearing on her face, after all Spock was the only professor who used decimal places. Sluggishly, submitted her unfinished essay and raised her hand to tell the truth.

“I uh… couldn’t finish it” she admitted. The Vulcan only cocked up an eyebrow “It’s just… I’m not trying to justify anything but I got this news and well…”

“That news being?”

“Kobayashi Maru?”

“What?” Evan exclaimed “Don’t tell me you passed. That was cheating”

“Cadet Cook, I do believe this is no concern of yours” Evan mumbled something she didn’t get. “Please see me after the lesson, Cadet Cook. There is something I wish to discuss with you” obviously he must have heard what he said. Carissa bit her lip to hold back a smirk. “With you as well, Cadet Wiley” he said. When he started the lesson, she let out a small sigh of relief.

-oO0Oo-

For the remainder of the lesson she couldn’t help but dread the end of it. It really sounded like she got into trouble. Once the rest of the class was allowed to leave, Evan threw an angry look at Carissa as Spock told them to sit down in the first row.

“Cadet Cook, I expect you to explain your behavior towards your fellow cadet, Miss Wiley”

“It can’t be that she got to do this Kobayashi Maru. It was my test, not hers. This is not fair.”

“Your anger towards Cadet Wiley is out of place since none of this is her fault”

“She should have just kept her mouth shot like she always does. She stole my chance”

“Mr Cook, is it Cadet Wiley’s culpability that you lost consciousness during the simulation?” Evan shook his head and opened his mouth to speak but got cut off “Then I can only emphasize how inacceptable your behavior towards her is and I demand you to stop this. Else I will be obliged to inform my superiors of this case” Evan glared at her and she wished Spock had just let it be. He had probably only made it worse with his lecture.

“Evan look, I am sorry” she said “I never meant to steal the show or whatever”

“Then why did you take charge?”

“I just wanted David to wait until it was over officially. But let’s assume this would have been a real situation and your Captain passed out. Would you do something or just sit there and wait?”

“But it’s just a damned simulation. That’s the fucking point”

“There is no need for such foul language, Cadet” Spock reminded him “Besides your classmate is correct. It could have been real. Then everyone expects you to show responsibility, even if you are not a Captain. Cadet Wiley did exactly that and I daresay this is the reason that she has passed. Though her splendid approach must have had something to do with it as well” why, oh why couldn’t he just shut up? Did he not see he was making everything worse? Carissa wanted to be anywhere but here.

“Teacher’s pet” she heard Evans mutter and she clenched her fists. It probably wouldn’t have affected her that much if it had been any other professor. Luckily her boyfriend kept quiet this time and the brunette had the impression he did not even know what the words meant.

“Professor” she said, looking at Spock “thank you for your help but I think I can handle him by myself. He’ll just be mad at me for a little time but it will pass. After all we never had a problem before”

“If you say so” she nodded. “Cadet Cook, you are free to leave” Evan jerked up and wanted to storm out of the room “But be warned. If I hear of any other nastiness towards your classmate I will take action as I cannot tolerate such behavior” he stared after him until Evan left the classroom and closed the door before he turned to his girlfriend

“That wasn’t necessary” she mumbled

“He had no right to treat you like this. Besides, his hatred towards you is highly illogical because none of what happened is your fault”

“Well tell him. He’s just…”

“Acting out of fierce emotions”

“Yeah” she chuckled “dead on”

“However,” he continued “I wanted to talk about your latest essay, cadet”

“The one I forgot?” she asked shyly

“No, not that one. The one I have corrected”

“Oh right. But… am I in trouble because I didn’t finish the other?” he raised an eyebrow

“This is your first time neglecting homework, thus there will be no consequences. In case it happens again, you will need to complete supplementary work or any other form of compensation”

“Okay, thank you Sir” she breathed out in relief. “And what about the other essay?”

“I could not help but notice that your essays are getting and getting worse. If you do not change something you will fail this course”

“I uh…” she swallowed “I don’t really get the hang of this”

“Are you trying to say that you have difficulties in understanding the subject?”

“A bit more maybe. I’m clueless” she admitted

“And why did you not consult me?”

“I-I thought… when we got together” she looked at him “you said that we mustn’t talk about topics that are related to classes and all. So I tried to teach myself by reading books. But that didn’t help”

“I would have gladly taught you anything you wanted to know if you had just asked. Just because I am with you does not mean that I would not tutor you if necessary. When I said this, I meant that I cannot tell you more about the exams or any other matters that could give you an advantage”

“Well, I guess I didn’t want to bother you”

“Bother me? You would not be the first cadet I am tutoring. Moreover, I am teaching advanced topics to cadets who wish it.”

“So this means you will help me?”

“That would be the only logical thing to do” she nodded with a bright smile

“Thank you”

“But I will contact a few of your classmates as I have seen that some others seem to have troubles as well”

“Sure. It’s better to learn in a group anyway. Besides, then I won’t feel so strange when it’s just us. I mean, then it doesn’t feel like you don’t waste your time on me”

“Carissa” he said softly “Any time I spend with you is not wasted” she giggled at his sudden informality.

“And why again did you think you can’t be romantic? This might be the cutest thing anyone’s ever said to me”

“Then I suppose it is good to hear that telling you this simple fact has made you feel happiness”

“Of course it makes me happy. And do you know what else makes me happy? Being with you” since this was now getting a bit strange when she sat at a desk and he was standing in front of her, Carissa got up as well. A part of her wanted to touch him but they were in a classroom and anyone could come in any moment so she held herself back.

“Are you getting ready to leave?”

“Maybe”

“There are only 6 minutes and 23 seconds left until the next class starts. So maybe it would be best if you headed there. My next cadets should arrive soon as well”

“Oh sure” she said, grabbing her bag. “See you around I guess? Or at the tutoring?” he nodded

“I will let you know when I have gotten into contact with the other cadets to let you know about time and setting for the tutoring” now she couldn’t help but place a hand on his arm

“Thank you”

“I see no point in thanking me since this proposal bases on logical conclusion and thoughts”

“It means a lot to me anyway” she replied “so thank you” she gently squeezed his arm before pulling back and leaving the classroom.

-oO0Oo-

Much to her surprise, Evan actually left her alone. Sure, he mentioned the matter another few times in the following days but he seemed to have calmed down after a week. Carissa had the impression that word about her success at the Kobayashi Maru scenario had gotten around and she had the feeling as if everyone from her year who wanted to take the test wanted to have her on board. Since she found it a good way to learn more about the life on the bridge, she mostly agreed, unless she didn’t like the cadets at all. She was a little surprised, when suddenly someone a year above wanted to have her participating in her test. And after that, also a few other people from years above hers asked her to join them. If she was honest, Carissa didn’t like the attention too much. Somehow she had the feeling as if she was something like a mascot for them.

One day, as she was sitting outside, an older cadet plopped down on the bench next to her

“You’re Clarissa Riley, right?”

“Carissa Wiley” she corrected. He wasn’t the first one to get her name wrong.

“Well anyway. You’re the one who somehow beat the Kobayashi Maru test. How did you do it?”

“I just made the right choices” she replied “and as you might have heard, I wasn’t actually supposed the test. I took over”

“So you cheated?”

“Hell no”

“But I heard the test had to be reprogrammed after you took it”

“It didn’t had to be reprogrammed. They only had to add another feature. I just was unlucky enough to be the one to find out. But I was told, if the feature had been there, my chances of surviving would have been quite high”

“Nevertheless, you passed”

“So what?”

“I heard you’ve taken a liking to take part in other cadet’s test”

“Yeah?”

“Would you to me the honor to join me for my attempt?”

“Okay, why not? When?”

“In two days at 11AM. You know where.” only after he left Carissa realized that she didn’t even get his name.

-oO0Oo-

Only about half a minute after the simulation had started, she regretted her choice to participate as an actor. He seemed too confident of himself and didn’t take it serious at all. Obviously she wasn’t the only one who wanted to slap him.

“So what are we gonna do about the Klingons?” Carissa asked, suppressing a sigh

“Oh just leave it all with me, sweetheart”

“Excuse me?”

“Three more Klingon vessels are approaching”

“Alright. Inform the Med Bay to take all the injured from the other ship”

“Shouldn’t we do something about the Klingons first?” Carissa wanted to know, already sensing they would be destroyed any minute.

“Captain, love, you forgot the Captain”

“You can’t be serious, Captain” she sneered “We could die any moment and all you can think of is your title, which you don’t even have by the way and won’t get if you continue like that”

“I didn’t invite you here to be such a spoilsport” he pouted. She was that close to choking him. “But you are right, we could die any moment” he walked over to her, placing a hand on her shoulder. She glared at the hand as if she could burn a hole into it. “So why not…”

“Captain! Shields are only at fifty percent. Maybe we should fire back?”

“Nah” suddenly the power went out

“This can’t be, we can’t have lost already.” Carissa said. Or were the examiners fed up and stopped the simulation? Suddenly the power came back on.

“Oh no, don’t worry, sweetie. Now the real fun begins.” he said with a smirk as he plopped down in the Captain’s chair again and bit into an apple. “Open fire! Let’s send this bastards to hell”

“Jim, their shields are still up”

“Are they?”

“No”

“So what are you waiting for, sweetheart? Destroy them” the cadet called Jim said and winked at her “The sooner this is over, the sooner we two…”

“Captain!” she protested “I hope you know that I have a boyfriend” she blurted out. This actually was the first time she mentioned this to anyone. If only no one asked questions… with a sigh she did as he requested and locked target on the birds of prey. It all went smoothly and not even a minute later all Klingon ships were gone.

“Now we can start the rescue mission” everyone started at him as Jim got up “Let’s sum this up… we have destroyed all enemy ships, no one on board was injured and we can now save the crew of the Kobayashi Maru” Carissa stared at the buttons in front of her. She had participated in more than 18 simulations in the past months. And it had never been that easy. Something was wrong. No one ever managed that much. The simulation went off and the participants were allowed to leave. After stepping outside, she saw Spock marching past her, looking puzzled if not irritated. Suddenly Jim’s behavior towards her during the simulation. He had touched her and flirted with her. She could have slapped herself, he must be jealous. If that even was a thing among Vulcans…

Next Chapter

#star trek #star trek fanfiction #fanfiction #spock #spock x oc

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grindskull · 4 years

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Shit that fucks me up #1 - Toxic Masculinity and being a “man”

Gotta have some way to organize my random thoughts here. I’m going with the obvious thing - Shit that fucks me up (STFMU). This is about me and my experiences. It is not my intention to discredit or question other human experiences. Sharing in the hopes of connecting with others who may have feel similar in their own skin. There are things here that others may define as triggers so read at your own risk (rape, abuse, and this fucking world). ---

Here is me being vulnerable. I am putting myself out there by discussing masculinity and how I often do not identify with the larger concept of “being a man” in any positive way. You can call it toxic masculinity if you prefer. It’s acceptable shorthand for something that is just as nuanced and difficult to wade through as anything gender related. I read this article on The Atlantic yesterday and there were some things that really resonated with me and my experience as a man/male (he/his/him). You can read it here (sorry there is a pay wall if you read more than 4 articles a month) but I will also be quoting some of the article below. If you have time to read the article I’ll wait. It’s a bit long (many articles on The Atlantic are) and kind of academic at times. It’s okay if you don’t agree with everything in the article. Just read it. Done? Okay let me set the stage a bit for how this shit fucks me up. ---

I’m male. I have always identified as a male/boy/man in my life. Unfortunately my experience with other males/boys/men has been mostly negative. It started at an early age when I had a hard time connecting with other boys my age. I was not interested in typical “male” interests like sports, violence, competition, and achievement. I had few (usually 1 or 2) friends at any one time and they typically had some kind of unhealthy power dynamic over me where I was subservient to my “friend” in some way. I have some thoughts on reasons why this happened. The short version is I lived in poverty (often extreme) and I was searching for help and support in order to survive. At home I had abuse (mental, physical, verbal), drugs, addiction, and neglect. It was not a safe place to be so I did whatever I could to not be there. It was not unusual for me to eat maybe one meal during the day (typically what I could get from others at school or their home). Winter was the worst as we often did not have heat. Some of my “friends” used this as a way to hold power over me and make demands of my personality, time, and attention. Imagine finding yourself in this situation - you have to actively work to not be yourself in order to appease others for your very survival. Of course as a youth I didn’t identify it this way - my “friends” were just bossy or demanding. All of my male role models were basically assholes who did not give a fuck about anyone except themselves. This was a huge part of the 80′s zeitgeist in popular culture at the time as well. In some ways nothing has really changed. “... when asked to describe the attributes of “the ideal guy,” those same boys appeared to be harking back to 1955. Dominance. Aggression. Rugged good looks (with an emphasis on height). Sexual prowess. Stoicism. Athleticism. Wealth (at least some day).“ Under this common definition of “masculinity” I do not see myself. I am loyal, honest, caring, and sweet (to those I love). I love my body though I am non-athletic and have been most of my life. I am an attentive and talented lover but I have had very few sexual partners in my life and never saw them as moments of “conquest”. I was dirt poor most of my life but now live comfortably in my own home with my long term partner. So while not “wealthy” it is far beyond anything I could have imagined I would have in my life as a boy. Stoicism I have down. That one was easy. For me it’s just a nice way of saying “I have completely disconnected from my emotions and not having feelings or emotions is the best way to be a man”. I believed that for a very long time - it’s only in the past 2-3 years I have begun the work of breaking that down and reconnecting with my own emotions. It’s all tied up in trauma, depression, and anxiety so it takes a bit of fucking work but it’s very much worth it. If you are a man/male who thinks it is normal to not have emotions (or that emotions make you feminine/weak) please listen to me - THAT IS BULLSHIT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF TO HAVE EMOTIONS.

“... young men described just one narrow route to successful masculinity. One-third said they felt compelled to suppress their feelings, to “suck it up” or “be a man” when they were sad or scared, and more than 40 percent said that when they were angry, society expected them to be combative.“

Emotions are not weakness. You are not weak for having them, feeling them, or connecting with them. There is great strength in connecting with yourself and understanding your emotions. Don’t let anyone tell you different. They are delusional at best and actively trying to harm you at worst.

“While following the conventional script may still bring social and professional rewards to boys and men, research shows that those who rigidly adhere to certain masculine norms are not only more likely to harass and bully others but to themselves be victims of verbal or physical violence. They’re more prone to binge-drinking, risky sexual behavior, and getting in car accidents. They are also less happy than other guys, with higher depression rates and fewer friends in whom they can confide.”

---

How did we get here!? Have men always been this way? What about the good ole masculinity of ye olden times? It was a simple time where men were men right? A man’s man? “According to Andrew Smiler, a psychologist who has studied the history of Western masculinity, the ideal late-19th-century man was compassionate, a caretaker, but such qualities lost favor as paid labor moved from homes to factories during industrialization. In fact, the Boy Scouts, whose creed urges its members to be loyal, friendly, courteous, and kind, was founded in 1910 in part to counter that dehumanizing trend. Smiler attributes further distortions in masculinity to a century-long backlash against women’s rights. During World War I, women proved that they could keep the economy humming on their own, and soon afterward they secured the vote. Instead of embracing gender equality, he says, the country’s leaders “doubled down” on the inalienable male right to power, emphasizing men’s supposedly more logical and less emotional nature as a prerequisite for leadership.”

Take a minute to read that and really take it in. Like many things in the US (and the world) the effects of industrialization and war shaped our current version of accepted masculinity. More specifically the leaders of this country (and leaders in other countries) used their positions of power to strengthen men and this new masculinity in our institutions. Then we were taught that this was the “right way” to “be a man”. FUCK. THIS. SHIT.

“Today many parents are unsure of how to raise a boy, what sort of masculinity to encourage in their sons. But as I learned from talking with boys themselves, the culture of adolescence, which fuses hyper-rationality with domination, sexual conquest, and a glorification of male violence, fills the void.“

Here we have the core of what I experience as a man when it comes to the current socially accepted version of masculinity and why it fucks me up. I don’t identify with any of this shit! It does not feed me. It does not make me feel fulfilled and happy. It doesn’t make the world better for anyone it simply dehumanizes us all.

“In a classic study, adults shown a video of an infant startled by a jack-in-the-box were more likely to presume the baby was “angry” if they were first told the child was male. Mothers of young children have repeatedly been found to talk more to their girls and to employ a broader, richer emotional vocabulary with them; with their sons, again, they tend to linger on anger. As for fathers, they speak with less emotional nuance than mothers regardless of their child’s sex. Despite that, according to Judy Y. Chu, a human-biology lecturer at Stanford who conducted a study of boys from pre-K through first grade, little boys have a keen understanding of emotions and a desire for close relationships. But by age 5 or 6, they’ve learned to knock that stuff off, at least in public: to disconnect from feelings of weakness, reject friendships with girls (or take them underground, outside of school), and become more hierarchical in their behavior.“

I’m not going to get into the topic of my own father (that’s another post in this series for sure) too deeply but I will say I completely identify with these ideas. Emotional distance, only expressing anger, telling me having emotions was weak. This was reinforced societal norms throughout my youth through today. Don’t talk about your problems or feelings. Ball them up inside. Wall yourself off from the world. Connections = weakness that others will exploit. You must control every situation and hold power over others. FUCK. THIS. SHIT.

---

So when did I wake up? When did I start to see through this shit in some way? When my younger sister was born. It was really obvious to me that she was treated in a different way and expectations of her as a girl/woman were not the same as the expectations others had for me. Mostly I just saw the negatives in this. It took me time (and lots of communication and experiences with my partner and others) to recognize the root of this was more fucked up socialization.

“Girlfriends, mothers, and in some cases sisters were the most common confidants of the boys I met. While it’s wonderful to know they have someone to talk to—and I’m sure mothers, in particular, savor the role—teaching boys that women are responsible for emotional labor, for processing men’s emotional lives in ways that would be emasculating for them to do themselves, comes at a price for both sexes. Among other things, that dependence can leave men unable to identify or express their own emotions, and ill-equipped to form caring, lasting adult relationships.”

Read this carefully. Nobody is responsible for your emotional well being but you. If you are a male/man this is especially true - females/women are not responsible for managing your emotions and your reliance on them to take care of this is a form of abuse. They are not responsible for your emotions. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN EMOTIONS.

It can be really hard to see this. It was a blind spot for me for way too long. Don’t let it be one for you. Connecting with and taking responsibility for your emotions is one of the biggest things you can do to improve yourself as a human being. If you are sad you can cry. If you are happy you can laugh. You have a wide range of emotions and they don’t all lead to frustration or anger.

“As someone who, by virtue of my sex, has always had permission to weep, I didn’t initially understand this. Only after multiple interviews did I realize that when boys confided in me about crying—or, even more so, when they teared up right in front of me—they were taking a risk, trusting me with something private and precious: evidence of vulnerability, or a desire for it.“

---

Okay so putting aside all of the reinforcement we get from our parents and institutions and our lack of emotional vulnerability why do we all buy into this dumb shit? Who convinced us all this is what masculinity is? And why do we listen?

“What the longtime sportswriter Robert Lipsyte calls “jock culture” (or what the boys I talked with more often referred to as “bro culture”) is the dark underbelly of male-dominated enclaves, whether or not they formally involve athletics: all-boys’ schools, fraternity houses, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the military. Even as such groups promote bonding, even as they preach honor, pride, and integrity, they tend to condition young men to treat anyone who is not “on the team” as the enemy (the only women who ordinarily make the cut are blood relatives— bros before hos!), justifying any hostility toward them. Loyalty is paramount, and masculinity is habitually established through misogynist language and homophobia.”

Sounds familiar right guys? Don’t kid yourself. This is what being a man looks like in almost all situations in which we feel “safe” to express our self right? You are either with us or against us. Anything different or anyone questioning this behavior must be “othered” as they are clearly not “on the team”. FUCK. THIS. SHIT.

This was my entire experience as a youth. As someone who did not fit into this group (nor wanted to) I was immediately “othered” and deemed a “pussy” or “fag” or “homo” or “weirdo”. My friend group reflected this - mostly others who also were “not on the team” like women, gays and lesbians, and men who also did not identify with this version of masculinity. Which just made it easier to group us all together and identify us as the enemy.

“Just because some young men now draw the line at referring to someone who is openly gay as a fag doesn’t mean, by the way, that gay men (or men with traits that read as gay) are suddenly safe. If anything, the gay guys I met were more conscious of the rules of manhood than their straight peers were. They had to be—and because of that, they were like spies in the house of hypermasculinity.” Without the ability to connect with and express my emotions I often reacted in anger. I started fights. I got violent (with words and writing mostly). I returned this “othering” and treated them all as the enemy. I had other reasons for this (being abused by men as a boy) but at the crux of the issue I had no trust for men. This helped me connect with women and my gay friends as they also experienced this distrust in similar (and different) ways.

Years later I found myself in a job where I managed a group of men (100 or more at any time) working as a team (video game industry) and totally unable to connect with any of them as a human let alone a man. It was at this time that I realized this was a problem beyond my own experiences and when I started to understand my own participation in this system.

I tried to question things as they came up. I tried to hear my teammates and help them navigate this murky sea of masculinity to find their own place in it. Most people didn’t want to participate. They learned to keep their mouth shut if I was within earshot of their typical “bro talk”. They learned to act differently around me so as not to incur my wrath (using my anger and position of power to punish them for being sexist, racist, or intolerant). I felt powerful and I tricked myself into thinking I was making a difference. I was wrong.

---

“Recently, Pascoe turned her attention to no homo, a phrase that gained traction in the 1990s. She sifted through more than 1,000 tweets, primarily by young men, that included the phrase. Most were expressing a positive emotion, sometimes as innocuous as “I love chocolate ice cream, #nohomo” or “I loved the movie The Day After Tomorrow, #nohomo.” “A lot of times they were saying things like ‘I miss you’ to a friend or ‘We should hang out soon,’ ” she said. “Just normal expressions of joy or connection.” No homo is a form of inoculation against insults from other guys, Pascoe concluded, a “shield that allows boys to be fully human.”

It wasn’t long before my “making a difference” spread into our hiring, training, and management of the team. I brought in women who wanted to work in the game industry. I tried to shut down any of the bro culture bullshit that came up and used it as an opportunity to teach other men why it was fucked up. It worked for some (maybe 5-6 people out of hundreds) but the majority either quit or tried to get me fired. Most did not change their behavior in any way.

The women said they knew what they were getting into. I don’t believe they knew what it was like to actually be in the middle of the situation. I assume women in the military probably have a lot of experience like this. In short - it’s fucking toxic and disgusting. Like other males/men they too have to fall in line and “become one of the boys” or risk being antagonized and ostracized for being “different”. It’s Lord of the Flies. It’s fucking mob mentality. It’s masculinity at it’s absolute worst. And this was in a “progressive” creative city working for a small company with a woman CEO. Men simply don’t give a fuck and it’s almost always easier to go with the flow. FUCK. THIS. SHIT.

My first experience with a trans individual in a work setting occurred was while I was managing this team. One of our long term employees made the transition and I had to watch how they were treated by the “bros’. Jokes were made, memes were shared, snickering and fucked up behavior was rampant. I had to talk to, discipline, and fire many individuals. These were men I thought were “on the team” and working to be good examples of masculinity. I should have known that was just part of the act - their way of surviving and showing subservience to me as a man in a position of power over them. My trust was further eroded in masculinity.

Putting yourself over others is not power. It is dehumanization and it stems from hate. We can be different without being better or worse than someone else regardless of who they are. Not everything has to be a competition. It took me way too long to undo the damage done to me by these ideal of toxic masculinity. You can do it too - you just have to start today.

---

Beyond the negative effects this version of masculinity has on us as males/men it also fucks up our interaction with women and sexual partners and it’s certainly done so to me. I’m actively working on unfucking my fucking and aware that many of my heterosexual ideals of sex stem from the same shit I have been actively fighting against most of my life. Connecting emotionally with your sexual partner takes things to a completely different level.

“It’s not like I imagined boys would gush about making sweet, sweet love to the ladies, but why was their language so weaponized ? The answer, I came to believe, was that locker-room talk isn’t about sex at all, which is why guys were ashamed to discuss it openly with me. The (often clearly exaggerated) stories boys tell are really about power: using aggression toward women to connect and to validate one another as heterosexual, or to claim top spots in the adolescent sexual hierarchy. Dismissing that as “banter” denies the ways that language can desensitize—abrade boys’ ability to see girls as people deserving of respect and dignity in sexual encounters.”

This is the first thing that comes to my mind when I hear the term “rape culture”. As men we are taught that to be masculine is to claim “wins” in sexual conquest. Sex is property and we can collect it. Even if it’s with our long term partners or spouses. Ever tried talking to men about this? Ever questioned others on how it’s fucked up? You probably heard about how it’s all in jest. Just a joke! I’m just joking! “When called out, boys typically claim that they thought they were just being “funny.” And in a way that makes sense—when left unexamined, such “humor” may seem like an extension of the gross-out comedy of childhood. Little boys are famous for their fart jokes, booger jokes, poop jokes. It’s how they test boundaries, understand the human body, gain a little cred among their peers. But, as can happen with sports, their glee in that can both enable and camouflage sexism. The boy who, at age 10, asks his friends the difference between a dead baby and a bowling ball may or may not find it equally uproarious, at 16, to share what a woman and a bowling ball have in common (you can Google it). He may or may not post ever-escalating “jokes” about women, or African Americans, or homosexuals, or disabled people on a group Snapchat. He may or may not send “funny” texts to friends about “girls who need to be raped,” or think it’s hysterical to surprise a buddy with a meme in which a woman is being gagged by a penis, her mascara mixed with her tears. He may or may not, at 18, scrawl the names of his hookups on a wall in his all-male dorm, as part of a year-long competition to see who can “pull” the most. Perfectly nice, bright, polite boys I interviewed had done one or another of these things.”

Let me be clear in case you are confused. This shit isn’t funny. Laughing at other people’s misfortune is a long standing human tradition yes - and it still dehumanizes everyone involved. That doesn’t make me laugh but maybe you are still amused? Why?

“At the most disturbing end of the continuum, “funny” and “hilarious” become a defense against charges of sexual harassment or assault. To cite just one example, a boy from Steubenville, Ohio, was captured on video joking about the repeated violation of an unconscious girl at a party by a couple of high-school football players. “She is so raped,” he said, laughing. “They raped her quicker than Mike Tyson.” When someone off camera suggested that rape wasn’t funny, he retorted, “It isn’t funny—it’s hilarious!”

The classic toxic masculinity force field present in my life has been the “just joking” phrase with the ultimate no consequence phrase “it’s hilarious!”. Say something you don’t want to manage the consequences for? Just a joke! People still question you or your morals after saying some heinous shit? No.. it’s cool... it’s hilarious! You just gotta laugh! FUCK. THIS. SHIT.

“Hilarious” is another way, under the pretext of horseplay or group bonding, that boys learn to disregard others’ feelings as well as their own. “Hilarious” is a haven, offering distance when something is inappropriate, confusing, depressing, unnerving, or horrifying; when something defies boys’ ethics. It allows them to subvert a more compassionate response that could be read as unmasculine—and makes sexism and misogyny feel transgressive rather than supportive of an age-old status quo. Boys may know when something is wrong; they may even know that true manhood—or maybe just common decency—compels them to speak up. Yet, too often, they fear that if they do, they’ll be marginalized or, worse, themselves become the target of derision from other boys. Masculinity, then, becomes not only about what boys do say, but about what they don’t—or won’t, or can’t—say, even when they wish they could. The psychologists Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson, the authors of Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, have pointed out that silence in the face of cruelty or sexism is how too many boys become men.

I feel like I may have already gone too far into this dark hole of shit that fucks me up around toxic masculinity. I hope I didn’t lose you. I hope you have questions and thoughts about how this impacts your life. Perhaps ways that you make a change today to fight against this bullshit. You may be asking yourself “what can we do!?” At the end of the day its up to males/men to change this culture. It’s not about self-hate or self-abuse. We gotta name this and own it. We need more men to step up and say ‘It doesn’t have to be like this”. Our collective mental health requires us to be more flexible and connected to ourselves and emotions. We need to find ways to deal with our anger, frustration, and desires in ways that don’t hurt ourselves and others. We need to teach ourselves (especially youth) that it isn’t enough to only talk about things we shouldn’t (and hopefully won’t) do.

If this shit fucks you too you can do something about it. Start with yourself. Question these things when they come up. And not only when you feel “safe” to do so. Do it consistently in ways that are non-confrontational (they will probably lead to confrontations with most men anyway - sorry). Be okay with not always “winning’ in these situations. You’ll be surprised who you might connect with in the process. Hopefully one of those people will be yourself.

#mental health #masculinity #shit that fucks me up

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miss-musings · 5 years

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“THE BLACKLIST” & WHY PEOPLE HATE LIZ SO MUCH

I’ve discussed on here several times how much I’ve been annoyed with the way TPTB have written Liz’s character over the course of the show. But, I tried to keep my frustration and annoyance directed more so at the writers/showrunners and less on the character herself or the actress Megan Boone.

However, after watching 6x10 “The Cryptobanker,” I think I may have finally hit the point where I really started to hate Liz in and of herself. So, I started writing this post, which I’ve added to and edited over the past few weeks, but I still stand by my original point.

Now, I follow the Blacklist on Facebook, and almost every single time there’s a new post, the top-voted comments are always praising Spader/Red and hating on Liz. I’ve seen people say she’s annoying, that they didn’t like this S6 plotline with her and her sister, that they hoped the show kills her off for real soon, etc.

I always thought that most of the comments were somewhat valid but maybe a little overblown (especially the ones about wanting her off the show). But, it really made me wonder why so many people hate -- and I mean HATE -- Liz so much.

While I admit that her character is starting to really get on my nerves, I’m going to try to put my personal feelings aside and tackle this objectively. I want to really look at what reasons within the show, its writing, its format, etc., Liz receives so much more hate -- vastly more than any other character on this show. As I said, Red/Spader is always highly praised along with Dembe, and I rarely if ever see comments complaining about Samar, Aram, Cooper and Ressler. I would guestimate that 95 percent of complaints about any one character are directed at Liz.

A THEORETICAL POSSIBILITY

Now, I will theorize -- and keep in mind that this is only a theory -- that part of the reason for this hatred toward Liz has to do with some male fans being misogynistic/sexist and some female fans’ annoyance at what a crappy avatar Liz makes for. (I’m talking about straight viewers, FYI.)

With regard to male fans, I think they look at Liz -- who at times has been terse, mean-spirited and vindictive -- and see her as a giant bitch. After all, that was the whole idea that Liz herself sets up in the pilot. She is not who her male colleagues expect her to be. She doesn’t play into the traditional feminine role of simpering, smiling and content to sit on the sidelines and let the men sort things out. (And, I’m really generalizing here.) So, I think it’s a fair assumption that some male fans have the same sentiments about Liz that her colleagues canonically have too.

As for the female fans, I think Liz might come off as a poor avatar. When you’re plunged into a fictional universe, usually there’s a character who’s plunged into the story along with you, and you learn as they do, to the point where you start to project yourself onto them. Think Neo in “The Matrix” or Harry Potter or Luke Skywalker. It’s every person’s fantasy to discover some great power within, harness it to defeat the bad guy and win the heart of the beautiful woman/handsome man in the process.

Liz was clearly meant to be our avatar into this universe. We were brought into the world along with her, saw her learn about Red, begin the Task Force, and plunge into this world of the FBI and the Blacklist.

Now, I imagine that for older women, especially, the fantasy is to be the kind of gal that a guy like James Spader would absolutely devote himself to. And that’s exactly how Red treats Liz -- like a woman he would do anything for. However, unlike many viewers, Liz is ungrateful for Red’s devotion and continual sacrifices for her benefit. Instead of seeing him as a savior and white knight, she often sees him as a nuisance and a terror in her life. I personally think she’s often justified in that, but I’d guess that 80 percent of the current audience is watching it simply for Spader’s performance alone. So, when the favorite actor’s character is not appreciated and is continually hated on by his co-lead character, it makes for uncompelling television from a “I want to project myself onto this character” kind of way.

But, with the theoretical discussion out of the way, let’s examine some more concrete reasons as to why people hate Liz.

LIZ IS OFTEN WISHY-WASHY (ie, has little conviction) WHEN IT COMES TO HER FEELINGS AND DESIRES.

This is what I’ve often described as the “Liz loves Red, Liz hates Red, Liz forgives Red” song-and-dance routine. But, there’s much more to it than simply Liz’s relationship with Red.

Liz was first introduced to us as a woman who wanted to start a family, and yet she thought about giving up her baby for adoption and then later gave Agnes away to her mother-in-law so she could spend more time on her revenge plans. The entire pilot goes out of its way to show Liz struggling with the demands of being an FBI agent and a prospective parent, and drives home the whole “Mommy Liz” vibe with the admiral’s daughter.

Yet, when she finds out she’s pregnant, she hesitates and thinks about giving it up for adoption. Then, when she has Agnes, she agrees to Kaplan’s plan to fake her death so she and Tom and Agnes can be happy and safe away from his world. And, later when Agnes gets kidnapped, she frets and worries about her constantly.

But, the minute she wakes up after being in a coma, she’s totally cool with pawning Agnes off to someone she’s never really met. Cool.

I realize there are mitigating circumstances, but this is a woman who made all her loved ones -- Red, Cooper, Ressler, Samar, Aram, any family members she had left (except Tom) -- believe she was dead so she could live with her daughter in a safe location!!!

The idea that Liz wouldn’t just drop everything and give up the Task Force indefinitely to heal and spend time with her daughter after losing 10 months of time with her is absurd, IMO.

But, no, revenge is far more important.

It’s also really annoying that after finding out Tom had betrayed her, she was able to give him a second chance and continued to love him despite all sorts of stuff in Seasons 2-5, but the minute Red does anything, she wants to drop him like heavy airline luggage.

So, in case you forgot: in S1, she found out that Tom had been lying to her, manipulating her, and abusing her. So, after shooting him in the S1 finale, she chains him up on a boat for several months in an effort to make him useful to the Task Force. However, the minute that she hits the “hates Red” part of her “love Red, hate Red, forgive Red” cycle, she runs right back to Tom and very quickly forgives him. And, while her positive feelings for Tom continue from late S2b until his death in 5x08, her feelings about Red are all over the place, as mentioned.

Now, in her defense, her feelings about him seem to waver whenever a crucial piece of information about his involvement in her life is discovered. When Tom’s fake passports were traced back to Red in 1x06, she blamed him and said she didn’t want to work with him anymore. But, then the very next episode, when he offers to leave the Task Force completely, she doesn’t tell him to do so.

And, when Red admitted to killing Sam toward the end of S1, she was again ready to let him leave. But then at the end of the episode, she stops him.

In S2, when Liz believes that Red was only interested in her for the Fulcrum, and never really cared about her, she gives him the cold shoulder. And then when he admits that he did hire Tom to be in her life, her coldness toward him again grows.

While they’re on the run together in S3, their relationship is at its best, arguably. Until she finds out she’s pregnant and he tells her that the fight is not over, and she doesn’t want her child to be in Red’s world. (Which is understandable)

And on and on it goes through S4 and S5 and now S6. The minute Liz realizes that he stole her father’s identity, she’s ready to burn him to the ground. But then only a few episodes later, she’s teary-eyed and regretting that she turned him into the authorities.

AS OPPOSED TO RED’S ...

But, what really makes this all so annoying is the fact that while Liz’s feelings toward Red are cyclical, his feelings for her are constant, enduring, and never wavering. I mean, he’s basically Garth Brooks’ “Shameless” in human form. He is completely devoted to her, would give his life for hers without hesitation, and has loved her (in some form or another) far longer and far deeper than she has seemingly ever loved him.

If both of them liked each other, or if both of them disliked each other initially but then grew closer over time, the show would be much better. For instance, ABC’s Castle -- while it definitely has its flaws -- started off with the two leads liking each other from the start. Yeah, maybe they’re trying to get used to each because he’s a goofball and she’s kind of a hard ass, but it seems like by the end of the pilot, they both generally like each other as acquaintances.

Or NBC’s “The Enemy Within” -- which is eerily similar to TBL and I’ll have to do a whole post on their similarities some other time -- which starts off with the two leads being tenuous with each other. He hates her, and she is kind of neutral toward him, but the two of them need to cooperate to accomplish a shared goal.

This was never the case with Liz and Red on TBL. In the pilot, Liz is very wary of Red, as she should be. However, he -- according to Zamani -- is obsessed with her, and it’s clear that he cares about her far more than he should. To our knowledge, Red has never met adult Liz. He’s seen her from afar and kept tabs on her, of course, but this was the first time he’d met her (presumably) since The Night of the Fire. And from that meeting, his love has only grown, while hers -- as discussed -- has been all over the place.

THE TWO ARE NOT EQUAL

As I’ve said in previous posts, while the show wants Red and Liz to be partners, they are really so unequal on multiple levels. The same could be said of the two leads on “The Enemy Within, but their inadequacies tend balance each other out. She has all the know-how, but he has the freedom and jurisdiction to do things, and he is the one who ultimately makes the decision on what his team should tackle and how. She has some of the power in their dynamic, and he has some as well. Thus, their advantages tend to cancel each other out.

This is not the case with Red and Liz. All this time, Red has withheld crucial pieces of information from her, which he gives to her in piecemeal and only when she demands them. I won’t judge whether that’s the right or wrong thing to do, but it puts her at a disadvantage as far as their dynamic goes. And while Liz should be given some advantage of her own, she really doesn’t have one. Red has an immunity agreement and gets to do pretty much whatever he wants, unlike on “The Enemy Within” where the male FBI agent has some say over what privileges the female CI has because she’s still in custody.

I guess the one advantage that Liz has over Red is that he’s told her he will never lie to her. And she has confronted him and asked him direct questions before because she knows he *has* to tell her to truth if she does. But, that doesn’t stop him from stalling, changing the subject, or trying to do a verbal workaround.

And then, when the show was promoting S6, they made it seem like the power was finally in Liz’s hands -- she knows he’s an impostor and he doesn’t know that she knows.

But, while the show tried to give Liz a bit of an edge over Red, it ultimately fizzled out. She knows he’s an impostor, but she no longer has an interest in pursuing it. Which goes back to my previous point about her not having conviction. She wanted to destroy Red, and betrayed him to ensure that he wouldn’t get in the way of her and Jennifer’s quest to find out his true identity. But then, she drops it.

Again, I realize there was a lot going on -- Jennifer was kidnapped; Red was almost executed. And while I think the fact that, right now, she’s fine with not having all the answers is a sign a maturity, it’s also incredibly frustrating to see how she went from 0 to 100 in such a short span of time.

Anyway... moving on to my next major point:

LIZ DOESN’T FEEL LIKE A REAL PERSON

Relative to the screentime she’s received, Liz does not feel like a real person, but merely a plot device or a vehicle for Red’s schemes and/or the Task Force’s missions.

Very rarely do we get to see her on her own, doing her own things, outside of Red/the Task Force -- going to the store, doing chores at home, hanging out with her kid, etc. The only times we do are when it’s relevant to the overall plot. Like when she gets beat up in the parking lot in 3x11 or when she brings that Lady Ambrosia kid over to her house, tries to cook him something, and then the fire alarm goes off.

She seems solely to exist within Red’s/the Task Force’s orbit.

I feel like the fact that Liz doesn’t have any friends or family outside of the Task Force, Red and Tom (when he was alive), really speaks to how she seems to exist more as a character, not as a person within a fictional universe.

She doesn’t seem to have any hobbies, and outside of her mentioning the Wizard of Oz and a few other things, she doesn’t really seem to have any interests in anything.

By comparison, we have lots of scenes with Red and Dembe, doing puzzles, playing cards and board games. We know Red enjoys art and food/alcohol and traveling, and he has a penchant for some types of drugs -- his favorite being sex.

And even Aram enjoys Doctor Who, biking and cooking.

I’m not saying that Liz needs to start chatting with Ressler about Monday Night Football or playing pool at some local dive bar, but something! Just a line about how she Skyped with Agnes last night, or her talking to Samar or Aram about her trying to decide whether she should download Tinder and try to get back into the dating scene, or a scene of her running around a park but she’s disturbed by memories from her past. Just something. Something to make her feel like a real person, who does things outside of the Task Force.

Again, I always hate the fact that Liz was supposed to have all these friends in S1 (the house party at the end of 1x03 and the vow renewal later in S1), and yet, they seemed to have vanished. I hate the fact that Liz doesn’t have any support system outside of Red and the Task Force. The girl needs friends! Hobbies! Interests! Something!!!

LIZ TRIES TOO HARD TO PROVE HERSELF, GETS IN TROUBLE, AND OFTEN NEEDS TO BE RESCUED BY RED AND/OR THE TASK FORCE AS A RESULT

This gets into a personal pet peeve of mine where Liz reassures people that she can do things. In the most recent case, she told her sister that she was definitely capable of deceiving Red and keeping him from finding out that she knows.

But then within the episode or two, Red definitely knows that Liz is up to something because she has been acting weird around him. And, before she begs Dembe not to tell Red that she was the one who betrayed him, Red was pretty certain that she was the one who did. I would suggest that the minute he was arrested, he had a good suspicion it was her. Hence why he said that what he would do to his betrayer would depend on who they were. He was hedging his bets, in case it was Liz.

Liz and Jennifer kept going back and forth on trying to convince the other that they could pull off this “Find Red’s true identity” side-plot, but ultimately, Jennifer got kidnapped, Liz killed a dude, and ended up having to recruit Ressler and Red to help her find Jennifer and confront the people who took her.

This type of situation happens A LOT on the show. Liz will try to do her own thing (finding Red’s true identity, etc.) and it ultimately gets her into trouble. It seemed to happen more often in S1-3. One example I can think of was when she didn’t kill Tom, but instead captured and imprisoned him, and then he killed the Harbormaster and forced Liz to face charges for murder. Red and the Task Force and even Tom had to come to her rescue to make sure she didn’t face the consequences of her choices. Yes, Tom did kill the Harbormaster, but Liz was the one who had decided to chain him up on the boat in the first place. The murder is on him, but the imprisoning is on her.

Liz also killed the Attorney General, and Red and the Task Force (and Tom, once again) were ultimately responsible for saving her from the Director’s plot while she was trapped in The Box, bringing the Cabal’s actions to light, using the Director as the scapegoat for Hitchen and then getting Liz out of the murder charges by bringing in Karakurt. And then, later, Red was responsible for leveraging the President into pardoning her so that she could become an agent again.

Now, there have been a few occasions where Liz was kidnapped simply because she was an FBI agent, not because of her connection to Red or anything else. For instance, in 1x04 “The Stewmaker,” she’s kidnapped and almost killed because she had her own personal history with that Lorca guy.

But, again, too many times Liz is put in the “damsel in distress” position where either she’s in trouble or her life is threatened and others have to be the ones to save her, either by saving her life or by saving her from legal repercussions, etc.

In a way, this whole S6a has been the consequence of Liz’s actions, which she regretted and then was looking for any and all help to make sure Red wasn’t executed after she’d turned him in. Yes, Red was the one who insisted on the death penalty, but he never would’ve been in that situation if she hadn’t betrayed him. And ultimately, it was Cooper who came through and pressured the President into staying Red’s execution.

Going back to the “Red and Liz aren’t equals” thing, very rarely is Red the one who needs saving. And, even when he is, it isn’t always Liz who’s rescuing him. Again, Cooper was the one who saved Red from execution. Liz has saved him a few times that I can recall -- she stopped that guy from shooting him in 2x14 and she leveraged the Director into calling off the hit in 2x19.

But, again, Liz seems to be in trouble far more often than Red is, and she very rarely is able to save herself (with the solo-Liz episode being one of the few times she does). Meanwhile, Red is able to get out of jams on his own much more often, such as when he escapes Anslo in 1x10. And, he and the Task Force save her far more often than Liz and the Task Force save him. And, even then, sometimes Red saves her single-handedly (like in the S2 Super Bowl episode) while she usually has to work with others to save him.

Once again, I realize there are a lot of mitigating circumstances. Red has a vast criminal empire and more knowledge and resources than Liz does, most of the time. But, I do wish that 1) Liz wouldn’t be kidnapped or have her life/livelihood threatened so often and 2) that Red’s would be a tiny bit more frequently, so that *she* can save *him.*

It also doesn’t help that she was sidelined in S3b partly because she was a felon who was no longer able to be an agent on the Task Force and because both Liz the character and Megan Boone the actress were pregnant. And then she was sidelined again in S4a because of the whole felon thing / trying to get Agnes back.

TL;DR

I believe the reasons why people hate Liz are similar to why people hate Sakura from the “Naruto” Universe (as YouTube channel SwagKage describes in this video):

Liz doesn’t get the character development she should relative to her screentime; and any development she does get seems to be cyclical and inconsistent. (ie, she acts however the writers need her to for the given arc/episode)

Liz often tries to do her own thing, despite warnings not to; and while she’s by no means useless to Red or the Task Force, she often has to be rescued (either directly or indirectly) far more than she does the rescuing.

Liz often acts demanding, ungrateful, and selfish -- or at least relative to how the audience might want her to act, especially with regard to Red. And, jumping off the second point, also has a bit of an ego and can be proud and willful, which as I theorized, might be a turn-off for some male viewers.

Also, the Lizzington shipper in me could point out the parallels between Sakura liking Sasuke (who was a giant dick to her) and hating Naruto (who was constantly helping her out) and Liz’s dynamics with Tom and Red, respectively, but I’ll leave you all to watch the video for yourself.

Overall, I think some of the reasons for hating Liz are valid, but as I said, I *try* not to direct my annoyance toward the character of Liz herself or Megan Boone, the actress, but rather the writers, who I feel need to take responsibility for what they’ve done and continue to do with this character.

Don’t take this to say that I hate the writers, but rather that I want them to do better. I want to see this show succeed and I want to see Megan have some amazing material to work with the same way that James seems to with Red.

I’ll say it again: I don’t hate this show; I merely want to offer up my criticisms and objective-ish insights into why I think people hate Liz so much. In that way, we fans can have a discussion and perhaps maybe the writers will take some of our points to heart.

For my next major TBL post, I’ll try to tackle the similarities between TBL and The Enemy Within. :D

#lizzington #reddington #raymond reddington #liz keen #elizabeth keen #the blacklist #nbc the blacklist #nbc blacklist #blacklist #james spader #megan boone #harold cooper #donald ressler #samar navabi #aram mojtabai #red reddington #masha rostova

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dancer-cotillion · 5 years

Text

Don’t Make it Weird

[A/N] Basically, during the trial in Chapter 5 I had the thought (theory) that maybe both Kaito and Kokichi were in the Exisal and lying about having a voice changer. That they'd perhaps swapped in a different body from a previous murder or used blood bags to make it look like a new murder had occurred, especially since the first game had set a precedent for such things being possible. I realized for this to be the case that Kokichi would have to be sitting on Kaito's lap since the Exisal supposedly only had one seat and probably not much room for anything else. My immediate follow up thought was 'oh my gosh, I ship it like Fedex'. Then I decided I very much wanted this thought/theory to be true. It wasn't though. T.T But now that I'm officially writing for this fandom, I decided to write it out for fun. There are plot holes, I don't know where Kokichi got the second antidote or the blood bags, or how he got either of those things without Monokuma knowing and thus hinting towards his plan. I don't even try to explain it. So please forgive my plot holes for the sake of them hiding in the Exisal together. Oh and also, Kaito isn't sick here. Or if he is, it's not fatal because he needs to live. [A/N]

With a sinking feeling, Kaito watched Maki disappear from the window, fleeing as she was helpless to do anything else. Dammit, that antidote had been meant for him. He never would’ve predicted Kokichi would be that ruthless, especially after Kaito had saved him.

He looked back over to see that the gremlin had pulled out one of those pink electro-bomb things that Miu had made. He pulled the pin out and dropped the grenade on the floor in the middle of the open doorway between the hanger and the bathroom. It exploded with a loud buzzing pop and seemingly nothing of it remained.

“What was that for?” Kaito asked as Kokichi turned back to face him.

“That was for the next step of my plan,” Kokichi replied as if he hadn’t just condemned Kaito to die of poison. But of course he had a plan, he was just like that.

He walked over to stand in front of Kaito and pulled out a bottle. It looked identical to the empty antidote bottle in his other hand. “Drink this,” he said, holding it towards Kaito as if he expected him to take it.

“What is it?”

“Another antidote. Now drink it.” Kokichi pushed it towards him again. “You dying would ruin everything.”

It was possible he was lying – where would he have even gotten another antidote? – but Kaito was already poisoned so he accepted it and drank it. While he did so, Kokichi smeared blood from the crossbow bolt wound on his shoulder onto the bottle in his hand and placed on the floor by Kaito.

“Now,” Kokichi took the now empty bottle from Kaito and put it back in his pocket. “Hold out your arm so I can take out the arrow.”

Kaito maybe felt a bit better? The poison was slow acting though, he’d only just been starting to feel its affects, so it was possible he hadn’t been cured of it. This was all a bit fishy.

So he pushed himself to his feet to regain his height advantage. “What is this about? What are you planning?” And did Kaito really want to play along with it? Kokichi was claiming to be the mastermind after all. Whether that was true or not was still not quite one hundred percent proven yet as far as Kaito was concerned. If he was willing to lie about being the culprit, why wouldn’t he also lie about being the mastermind? But to what end?

Kokichi frowned up at him. His face was paler than it should be. With pain no doubt, just the one arrow in Kaito’s forearm hurt like hell and Kokichi had two of them sticking out of him. But he snapped into a smile anyway. “We’re going to fool the mastermind by faking my death.”

“Aren’t you the mastermind.”

“Nope, that was a lie.” As Kaito had half suspected. “Now give me your arm.”

Kaito hesitated but did as he told, he wanted the arrow out regardless of anything else. “And how are we going to…” he cut off with a squawk of pain as Kokichi held his wrist with one hand and used the other to yank out the arrow. “Ow.”

“Don’t be a baby.” Kokichi placed the arrow on the ground by the bottle. “Now your turn.”

Kaito wanted to protest being called a baby – because he wasn’t, he’d had an arrow in his arm, it getting yanked out had hurt more than it going in had, and that was saying something – but now unfortunately wasn’t the time. “First, tell me what the hell we’re doing.” If Kokichi’s plan was a bad one, it’d be best to leave the arrows in for now as the pain should incapacitate him somewhat, which is exactly what Kaito had been aiming for.

“We’re going to make it look like you killed me with the crusher but we’re going to make it seem as if we tried to fake your death with the intent to fool the mastermind. Shuichi’s going to figure that out. He won’t call our double bluff though because everyone will assume that one us of is dead. We’ll hide in an Exisal and pretend we have a voice changer for the class trial. After the vote is called, we’ll both pop out, revealing our bluff and beating the mastermind at his own game, hopefully ending it for good.”

“Uh… what?”

Kokichi gave him a look like he thought he was stupid. “Did you really not understand?”

“Yes… no, I understand just… how?” There was no way that would work, right?

“Take out the arrows first please and then I’ll give you the exact steps while we start to set up.”

Now Kaito had a choice to make. Go along with Kokichi’s plan to fool the mastermind or go with his original plan to incapacitate him? Fooling the real mastermind would be phenomenal and might even end the killing game. Hopefully it would. And even if Kokichi was the biggest pain in the ass Kaito had ever met, he was also clearly very smart. If anyone could pull off a plan that could fool the mastermind, it’d be him�� even if Kaito didn’t want to admit it even to himself.

With a sigh he stepped closer and bent over to put one hand on Kokichi’s shoulder, the other he wrapped around the arrow shaft right above where it entered him. “Okay, I’m going to pull it out in three… two… one… now.”

Kokichi had visibly braced for it but still let out a hiss of pain as Kaito yanked out the arrow. He let out a heavy breath as he took the arrow and placed it next to the other one on the floor. Then he turned his back to face Kaito, taking no time to let himself recover. “Next one.”

This one looked like it had been embedded deeper than the one in his shoulder had been. Any deeper and it might have been a potentially fatal wound, he was perhaps lucky that it wasn’t.

Kaito repeated what he did before, bracing with one hand, gripping the arrow shaft with the other. “All right, three… two… one… now.”

Kokichi was silent this time but when he turned back around to take the arrow, there were tears in his eyes. Were they real though? … Well, he’d just had two arrows ripped out of him, that had to hurt so perhaps they were. What should Kaito say though? Should he even say anything?

“Tell me your plan now,” was what he ended up saying. There wasn’t much they could do about their injuries right now so perhaps it was best to pretend they weren’t in pain.

The press finished lowering with a loud clang, bursting the blood bags and spraying blood everywhere. If Kaito didn’t know better he’d believe a murder had happened here for sure. It was messy and gross and… should’ve made him feel sick enough to vomit. But he’d seen so much blood and death by now it didn’t faze him much as it should. … That was the scariest part of all. They needed to end this killing game before they all went insane, hopefully Kokichi’s plan would accomplish that.

Speaking of Kokichi, he turned back to watch him dismantle the camera’s tripod. He’d taken off his shirt to flush down the toilet to ‘hide’ the evidence. Not a step Kaito was sure was truly necessary but Kokichi had insisted that it was. He looked even skinner as a result.

“Like what you see?” he asked with a smile as he turned to face Kaito.

“No.” Kaito looked away, crossing his arms. “But now that that’s done, please tell me you brought medical supplies.” The arrow wound in his arm was painful and still bleeding an uncomfortable amount. Kokichi’s wounds were oozing blood too.

“Yep.” Kokichi vaulted over the railing of the control platform instead of going down the stairs like a normal person. … Kaito followed suit so he wouldn’t have to look at the bloody press again. Even knowing there was no body under there didn’t mean he actually wanted to look at it.

Kokichi led him back to the bathroom, purposefully avoiding stepping on the blood trial they’d created. There, they tended to each other’s wounds in near silence. It was an almost intimate experience in a weird sort of way.

Then they combed the place for any evidence of what they were actually doing and got rid of it, leaving behind only the exact clues they wanted to be found. Kaito wasn’t sure what all that would be so he just followed Kokichi’s lead. He didn’t want to but this was Kokichi’s plan and area of expertise so he wasn’t given much choice.

“And I brought you a spare a jacket because you don’t look right without it,” Kokichi said once he’d deemed the ‘crime’ scene to be perfect. He tossed said spare jacket towards Kaito.

Kaito caught it and slipped it on, letting one sleeve dangle at his side to look cool. “You bring yourself a spare set of clothing too?” he asked, looking around and seeing no such thing.

“Uh… I may have forgotten to do that. Whoops, oh well.” Smiling Kokichi shrugged. He seemed unbothered but… it was just weird seeing him bare-chested like that. Dammit.

With a sigh, Kaito slipped the jacket back off and tossed it at Kokichi, hitting him in the face with it. “What now?” he asked. “We hide in the Exisals, right?” Hopefully Kokichi would put the jacket on and not make any sort of deal out of it.

But alas, his hurt expression – undoubtedly fake – said such was not to be the case even before he opened his mouth. “I went to all the trouble to bring you an extra jacket and you…”

“Just put on the damn jacket asshole,” Kaito interrupted. “Don’t make it weird.”

Kokichi hesitated for a couple second before pulling the jacket on, moving slowly and stiffly due to his injuries. He even buttoned a few of buttons to cover his bare chest. “How do I look?” He asked as if he were trying on an outfit at a store and not mere feet away from a giant broken hydraulic press covered in blood in the middle of damn killing game.

The jacket was a couple sizes too big for him, hanging on him almost like a short dress. The sleeves hung down past his wrists to cover his hands. All together it added to his false look of cute innocence.

“I told you not to make it weird. Let’s just get the Exisals.” Kaito turned away and started making his way towards the closest one.

“I think you mean Exisal. We’re going to be hiding in the same one.”

Kaito stopped and turned back. “But there are two of them in here.”

“Yes, but remember, everyone needs to assume only one of us is alive. We’re going to lead them to the conclusion that it’s you but we need to make it seem like we’re trying to hide that. So we need to hide in the same Exisal and pretend we have a voice changer.”

“But uh… that means…”

“Yep, it means I get to sit on your lap for an extended period of time.”

“Uh… no, fuck that.” The last thing Kaito wanted was for Kokichi of all people to sit on his lap for any length of time.

“I’m smaller than you though so it makes more sense that way. But I suppose if you really want to sit on my lap that bad, you can.”

“Nope, fuck that even more.” The only thing worse than Kokichi sitting in his lap would be sitting in Kokichi’s lap. He’d just… have to suck it up then. “Let’s just get this over with then, don’t you dare make it weird. Which one we hiding in?”

“The one still on rack.”

Kaito walked over to it and climbed up to the cockpit. The electro-bomb from earlier was still in effect so the hatch opened without a problem, allowing him to clamber in. The seat was surprisingly comfy. And the control panel while unfamiliar in the sense that he’d never been inside this kind of machine before still felt comfortable in front of him, almost like he was in the cockpit of one of the astronaut training simulators.

His nostalgia and growing sense of homesickness was broken as Kokichi popped into view. With literally nowhere else for him to sit, he inevitably ended up on Kaito’s lap as promised. He pulled the hatch done with him and it set in place with a small click, sealing them in together.

“Don’t make it weird,” Kaito said again.

“Oh, I think it’s bit too late for that don’t you think?”

Kokichi was right of course. There was nothing not weird about having someone sit on his lap, back pressed to his chest. What was he supposed to do with his arms? The most logical place to put them was around Kokichi’s middle but that was not happening. They were way too close to cuddling… heck, some people might consider them to be cuddling if they saw them like this without an explanation.

“My plan to wear your jacket and sit on your lap has proven to be a total success,” Kokichi said with a giggle.

“What? You specifically wanted this?” Kaito’s face burned at the thought.

“No of course not, that was a lie.”

“Oh… good.” It had been a nice thought though, someone actively wanting to be this close to him. … Just not Kokichi. Anyone but Kokichi and it would’ve been a nice thought. “What do we do now?”

“Sit, wait, I suggest taking a nap.”

It was in the middle of the night and Kaito was tired but… how was he supposed to sleep when Kokichi was pressed up against him like this? His body was warm but not unpleasantly so. Kaito had never physically been this close to another person before. It was kind of nice… except for the fact that it was Kokichi.

“So uh… you sure this’ll work?” he asked, shoving those thoughts to the side.

“I can’t know for sure of course but it should work.”

“And if it doesn’t?”

“Then I’ll just have to try a different plan.” He sounded unbothered by that idea but it had to be a lie, right? So much work had gone into this plan of his, it failing would have to be devasting to him, right? “No matter what though I’m going to end this killing game.”

“Good, see? You’re a not a bad person. You’re just…”

“Before you say that,” Kokichi cut him off, “you should know the reason I want to end this killing game. I want to outsmart the mastermind, prove I’m smarter and better than him. Or her, it could be a girl.”

“That’s a lie though, isn’t it?”

“No, it’s not. For once I’m telling the truth.”

“Only a partial truth then?” Kaito didn’t want to believe Kokichi was all bad. He’d never wanted to believe that. But Kokichi seemed determined to make that hard. That had been part of his act to set this up though, right? He didn’t need to hold to it with Kaito anymore. “You want to outsmart the mastermind and help everyone?”

“Now you’re using that big astronaut brain of yours.” Kokichi reached back to tap Kaito’s cheek. “This ‘game’ is cruel and unusual; it needs to stop.” At the start of his words he sounded like he’d been smiling, by the end he sounded as if he were on the verge of tears. It might’ve been fake but it might’ve been real too; it was impossible to tell with him. “It’s not fun. It was never fun. It’s awful. I hate it.”

Kaito sighed as he wrapped his arms around Kokichi’s middle at last, letting his body relax and fold into him. It was far more comfortable and considering how long they’d be in here together, the comfier they could get, the better. “We’ll stop it,” he whispered.

Kokichi stiffened but relaxed back into him after several seconds. “I hope so.”

“We’ll do it for sure, don’t worry about it.”

Kokichi scoffed but otherwise didn’t reply for a long while. “Let’s try to get some sleep, we need to be rested for tomorrow’s trail.”

They stayed silent after that and eventually Kokichi’s breathing deepened as he fell asleep. It was calm and peaceful. With how cramped the space it would eventually get uncomfortable but for now Kaito was fine and soon started drifting off as well. Tomorrow would be rough but hopefully everything would work out and they’d be free of this nightmare.

#Danganronpa #Danganronpa V3 #Oumota #Kokichi/Kaito #Exisal Hanger #Plot Holes #Blood #Fluff #Cuddles #Sort of

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jamesmeroney · 5 years

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BEST Political Ideas at: AmericanAnswers.org

THE CASE AGAINST DONALD TRUMP

(Originally posted at Facebook/JimMeroney on 11/22/16)

1. Win at all costs is a lesson NO good parent teaches their kids. 2. Neither is being a bad sport (which summarizes ALL of Trump’s whiney campaign). 3. The end justifies the means is not a lesson any moral person adheres to. 4. You NEVER reward bad behavior is a lesson even Kindergartners know. 5. You have what you tolerate, and you must be willing to tolerate Chump antics in future politicians. 6. The GOP is NO LONGER the party of thinking more than feelings, with UN-thinking Trump! 7. The GOP is NO LONGER the party of values voters! Hillary Clinton ran a MUCH more moral campaign, despite her several faults. 8. The GOP is no longer the religious right party, as even non- religious voters see the hypocrisy and power idolatry of Christians voting for Trump! It also gives Jesus a bad name. 9. If you put all the sins and gaffes of the past five GOP nominees together (including their time in office), it DOESN’T compare to Trumps campaign—much less four years in office! 10. Trump ONLY divided the GOP and the nation further. He is NO uniter, at all! 11. The GOP’s chances at expanding their tent to minorities is harmed for a LONG time with Trump! 12. What Trump did and said for 7/8ths of his campaign was the real deal! Faking presidential and knowledgeable is OTHER people controlling him, to be acceptable. 13. Trump’s behavior in the primary IS his credentials for why he became the GOP nominee against sixteen BETTER-qualified people. He CAN’T live down all he FREELY chose to do and say. No one put a gun to his head and said act like a fool and a buffoon. HE ALONE caused his OWN presidential backlash! 14. If policy alone matters (i.e., not personal temperament), Kasich, Cruz, Rubio and Bush had policy down pat when Trump had FEW ideas (i.e., up until his last three months of the campaign)! 15. If policy is all that matters, you could have voted for a trained chimp, robot or even Hitler, because he was wise enough to HIDE his evils until he got in power. 16. Voting for ALL down-ballot Republicans was the ONLY wise Republican choice, as Donald’s campaign HURTS the GOP’s reputation with minorities (and others) for quite a while. 17. I expect president Trump to change into what more people always wanted, but if you believe a political charlatan and chameleon with the core he’s demonstrated, you will believe anything, and you did drink the Kool-Aid!

THE EVIDENCE AGAINST DONALD TRUMP

By his OWN admission (i.e., actions and words), the following paraphrased evidence of Trump’s unfitness for office is offered as Exhibit A (NOT in priority order). It is ONLY an executive summary—MUCH more could be presented:

Sue-happy (NBC, Ms. America, Telemundo, and threatens to against sex abuse accusers). MOST Hispanic illegals are rapists and criminals. A Mexican judge can’t be fair to me. Lies that Mexico’s President never discussed the wall payment on his photo op trip to Mexico. We will have a deportation force. Mexico will pay for a 50 foot wall. I am calling for a complete Muslim ban. Mr. Khan has not sacrificed. I saw Muslims cheering after 9-11. I can’t say I respect women. Women are pigs and dogs. You can grab women’s __ if you’re a celebrity. I’d liked to nail Princess Di. Ms. Piggy. Miss housekeeper. Has been a Democrat (and contributed to them) all his adult life. George Bush didn’t keep us safe. Jeb is as dumb as a box of rocks. Look at Fiorina’s face. There’s a lot of material to work with with Rand Paul. Little Marco. I’m going to spill the beans on Cruz’s wife. He couldn’t be elected dog catcher. Serial adulterer. Serial divorcer. “Two” Corinthians. Favorite Bible verse is an eye for an eye. Never asked God’s forgiveness for ANYTHING, but he’s a “Christian.” Now, one year later, he’s a “baby Christian.” His own pastor hardly knows him. I know more than the generals about ISIS. Pro-choice all his life. Punish the aborting woman. Bomb the sh_ out of them. Tell them to go f_ themselves. Used the ‘P’ word in public (at his rally). NEVER apologizes. The cast of Hamilton should apologize to Pence (something Trump’s incapable of doing himself). I assure you my hands are not small, nor other parts of my anatomy. Blood was coming from Megyn Kelly’s wherever. I’d date my daughter if it was legal. Of course women flirted with me—it’s to be expected. The great thing about me is I’m SO rich. I’m so handsome. Six foot portrait of himself paid for with charity donations. Had NO detailed plans until the last three months of his campaign; only it will be great, yuge, we'll look into that, believe me! Levy 45 percent tariffs on China. Sell federal lands to foreigners to pay off our debt. Default on loans from China to pay down our debt. There may be riots in Cleveland. I want to punch that guy in the face. I could shoot someone on a New York City street and lose no support. I’ll pay your legal bills if you beat/punch that protester. POW’s are losers. John McCain and Mitt Romney are losers. I was for the Iraq War before I was against it. Skipped a GOP debate for a vet fund raiser (to make up for his gaffe), and the media pressured him to pay up. I couldn’t serve in the military from an ankle pain/spur that I can’t recall which foot it was on. Ted Cruz’s dad killed JFK. Birther on Obama, Cruz and Rubio. Everything is rigged (elections, the media, GOP primaries) or unfair. If the GOP is not "fair" to me I may go third party (the man who started all the unfairness, and was ONLY unfair to every rival). Would never release his tax returns. Eighteen years of paying NO taxes. Would never prove his Wharton class rank. I’m my only adviser. I alone can fix it. I have the best words. I have a great brain. Daddy’s little $1 million loan to Donnie (and he’s the champion of the little guy?). Four (or more) bankruptcies. Unpaid illegal alien laborers. Outsourced many of his products. Paid off a golf shot winner debt from charity funds. Settled Trump University lawsuit. Putin is my green room buddy/pal. Russia didn’t invade Ukraine.

NEED I SAY MORE?

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orbemnews · 3 years

Link

Big Business Takes on Anti-Asian Discrimination Corporate America takes on anti-Asian discrimination Top business leaders and corporate giants are pledging $250 million to a new initiative and an ambitious plan to stem a surge in anti-Asian violence and take on challenges that are often ignored by policymakers, Andrew and Ed Lee report in The Times. Donors are a who’s who of business leaders. Individuals who are collectively contributing $125 million to the newly created Asian American Foundation include Joe Bae of KKR, Sheila Lirio Marcelo of Care.com, Joe Tsai of Alibaba and Jerry Yang of Yahoo. Organizations adding another $125 million to the group include Walmart, Bank of America, the Ford Foundation and the N.B.A. The initiative has echoes of the recent effort by Black executives to round up corporate support to push back against bills that would restrict voting. Anti-Asian hate crimes jumped 169 percent over the past year; in New York City alone, they have risen 223 percent. And Asian-Americans face the challenge of the “model minority” myth, in which they’re often held up as success stories. This shows “a lack of understanding of the disparities that exist,” said Sonal Shah, the president of the newly formed foundation. For example, Asian-Americans comprise 12 percent of the U.S. work force, but just 1.5 percent of Fortune 500 corporate officers. The group’s mission is broad. It is aiming to reshape the American public’s understanding of the Asian-American experience by developing new school curriculums and collecting data to help influence public policy. But its political lobbying efforts may be challenged by the enormous political diversity among Asian-Americans, Andrew and Ed note. HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING India’s Covid-19 crisis deepens. The country recorded nearly 402,000 cases on Saturday, a global record, and another 392,000 on Sunday. A business trade group is calling for a new national lockdown, despite the economic cost of such a move. The C.E.O. of India’s biggest vaccine manufacturer warned that the country’s shortage of doses would last until at least July. Credit Suisse didn’t earn much for its Archegos troubles. The Swiss bank collected just $17.5 million in fees last year from the investment fund, despite losing $5.4 billion from the firm’s meltdown in March, according to The Financial Times. Verizon sold AOL and Yahoo. The telecom giant divested its internet media business to Apollo Global Management for $5 billion, and will retain a 10 percent stake. It’s a sign that Verizon is giving up on its digital advertising ambitions and focusing on its mobile business. A third of Basecamp employees quit after a ban on talking politics. At least 20 resigned after the software maker’s C.E.O., Jason Fried, announced a new policy preventing political discussions in the workplace. The company isn’t budging: “We’ve committed to a deeply controversial stance,” said David Hansson, Basecamp’s chief technology officer. Manchester United fans are still mad about the failed Super League. Supporters of the English soccer club stormed the field yesterday, forcing the postponement of its highly anticipated match against Liverpool. They called for the ouster of the Glazer family, United’s American owners, over their support for the new competition meant mostly for European soccer’s richest teams. Succession hints and other highlights from Berkshire’s meeting At the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday, Warren Bufett and Charlie Munger spoke out on a typically broad range of topics, from investing regrets to politics to crypto. (They also picked fights with Robinhood and E.S.G. proponents, for good measure.) Buffett watchers also got their clearest hint yet as to who will succeed the Oracle of Omaha as Berkshire’s C.E.O. when the 90-year-old billionaire finally steps down. It’s Greg Abel. CNBC confirmed with Buffett that Abel, the 59-year-old who oversees Berkshire’s non-investing operations, would take over as C.E.O. “If something were to happen to me tonight it would be Greg who’d take over tomorrow morning,” Buffett said. Charlie Munger, Buffett’s top lieutenant, dropped a hint on Saturday, saying, “Greg will keep the culture.” Buffett took on Robinhood. The Berkshire chief said the trading app conditioned retail investors to treat stock trading like gambling. “There’s nothing illegal about it, there’s nothing immoral, but I don’t think you’d build a society around people doing it,” Buffett said. Robinhood pushed back. “There is an old guard that doesn’t want average Americans to have a seat at the Wall Street table so they will resort to insults,” tweeted Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay, the company’s head of public policy communications. And Buffett got blowback on E.S.G. Berkshire shareholders followed his lead and rejected two shareholder proposals that would have forced the company to disclose more about climate change and work force diversity. But each proposal got support from a quarter of Berkshire shareholders, a relatively high percentage. And big investors spoke publicly about their backing for the initiatives: BlackRock, which owns a 5 percent stake in Berkshire, said the company hadn’t done enough on either front. Other highlights from the Berkshire meeting: Munger let loose on crypto. “Of course I hate the Bitcoin success and I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful to kidnappers and extortionists,” he said. “I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.” Ajit Jain, who oversees Berkshire’s insurance operations, and Buffett traded quips about whether the company would insure Elon Musk’s trip to Mars. “This is an easy one: No, thank you, I’ll pass,” Jain said. Buffett said it would depend on the premium and added, “I would probably have a somewhat different rate if Elon was on board or not on board.” “We will not be anywhere near as focused on buybacks going forward as we have in the past.” — Intel C.E.O. Pat Gelsinger told CBS’s “60 Minutes” that in the future the semiconductor giant would focus less on buying its own shares and more on expanding production capacity to alleviate severe chip shortages. Ted Cruz rejects ‘woke’ corporate money Ted Cruz has sworn off corporate donations, and he used an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal to tell executives about it. The Republican senator from Texas criticized company chiefs for what he said were ill-informed criticisms of Georgia’s new voting laws. “For too long, woke C.E.O.s have been fair-weather friends to the Republican Party: They like us until the left’s digital pitchforks come out,” Cruz wrote. These companies “need to be called out, singled out and cut off,” he added. Cruz’s rejection may not make a big difference. After the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, many corporations pledged to withhold donations from lawmakers who voted against certifying the election results, at least for a period of time. Cruz, who is viewed as a key player in the efforts to reverse the vote, could be shut out for longer than others. But he’s not strapped for cash: He brought in more than $3 million in campaign funds in the three months after the riot, largely from individual donors. It highlights a new schism between Republicans and corporate America. Those ties were already fraying under President Trump’s unpredictable administration. President Biden’s proposed tax hikes and regulatory push would have typically driven companies into the arms of Republican allies, but Cruz, for his part, said he’s no longer interested in what the corporate donors and lobbyists have to say. “This time,” he wrote, “we won’t look the other way on Coca-Cola’s $12 billion in back taxes owed. This time, when Major League Baseball lobbies to preserve its multibillion-dollar antitrust exception, we’ll say no thank you. This time, when Boeing asks for billions in corporate welfare, we’ll simply let the Export-Import Bank expire.” An epic antitrust case begins Today, Apple and Epic Games meet in court for a trial that could have implications for the future of the App Store and the antitrust fight against Big Tech. DealBook spoke with Jack Nicas, a technology reporter for The Times, about what’s at stake. Why is Epic suing Apple? Many companies, including Spotify and Match Group, have complained loudly and publicly about the control that Apple has over the App Store, and the 30 percent commission it charges. Epic basically set some bait for Apple: It began using its own payment system in Fortnite, a very popular game, which meant Apple couldn’t collect its commission. It knew how Apple would react: Apple kicked Fortnite out of the App Store. Then Epic immediately sued Apple in federal court, and simultaneously launched a sophisticated PR campaign to paint Apple in a bad light. [Epic is suing Google for the same reason.] Why do businesses that aren’t Epic or Apple care about this case? If you’re a company that sells any digital goods or services, whether a game, music or a dating platform, you likely pay a large share of your revenues to Apple. If Epic wins here, that could eventually put an end to Apple’s commissions, or at least cause Apple to loosen its control over the App Store. So it really would upend the economics of the app industry. And beyond that, an Epic win would boost the push for antitrust charges against some of the biggest tech companies, including Apple. Now on the other side, if Apple wins, it’s really only going to bolster its already strong position. Who is expected to win? It’s certainly unclear at this point, but there is a thinking among legal experts that Apple has the upper hand, and that’s in large part because in antitrust fights, courts are more sympathetic to the defendants. But some legal experts think that Epic’s case could be strong. What will you be watching for? The C.E.O.s of both companies, Tim Sweeney and Tim Cook, will be testifying at the trial. Sweeney will likely have to explain why Epic is suing Apple and Google, but not Microsoft and Sony and Samsung and Nintendo, which charge very similar commissions and have similar rules. And Cook will have to answer some very pointed questions about how Apple does business, and how it potentially creates rules in its App Store to hurt rivals. I think there’s an opportunity for the lawyers on Epic’s side to elicit some interesting answers from him. Read the full report about the case from Jack and Erin Griffith. THE SPEED READ Deals Legendary Studios, the producer of movies like “Godzilla vs. Kong,” has reportedly held talks to either merge with a SPAC or buy another studio. (Bloomberg) Politics and policy Why investors have largely shrugged off President Biden’s proposal to raise capital gains taxes. (NYT) As the head of the nonprofit Venture for America, Andrew Yang pledged to create 100,000 jobs nationwide. The group created about 150. (NYT) Tech An internal Amazon report warned management that its sales team had gained unauthorized access to third-party seller data, which may have been used to help its own products. (Politico) Tesla is reportedly stepping up its engagement with Beijing officials as it faces greater pressure from the Chinese government. (Reuters) Best of the rest “Has Online Retail’s Biggest Bully Returned?” (NYT) How remote work is decimating Manhattan’s retail stores, in pictures. (NYT) Eli Broad, the billionaire businessman and art collector who reshaped Los Angeles, died on Friday. He was 87. (NYT) We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to [email protected]. Source link Orbem News #antiAsian #Big #Business #discrimination #Takes

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anakinsbugs · 3 years

Text

SMS Marketing Doesn’t Suck: Here’s How to Use it To Generate Revenue

New Post has been published on https://walrusvideo.com/sms-marketing-doesnt-suck-heres-how-to-use-it-to-generate-revenue/

SMS Marketing Doesn’t Suck: Here’s How to Use it To Generate Revenue

Did you know the average person checks their phone

160 times a day

Which is just one of the reasons SMS marketing no longer sucks.

Forty-six percent of people

say they check their phones before they even get out of bed.

The point is that people keep their phones handy and are always ready to use them to find information or check the latest social media updates.

Plus, open rates for texts vastly surpass email —

98 percent versus just 20 percent for email.

Mobile advertising works, but only if your message makes it to the consumer’s inbox, and only if your ad is mobile-optimized.

It’s the only way to steer clear of the noise and get a positive return on investment.

Most online marketers laugh at the idea of SMS marketing because they think it’s more regulated than email marketing. But that’s a

myth

Watered-down, mobile-targeting tactics are costing you conversions, clients, and revenue.

Meanwhile, SMS marketing is lurking in the background, waiting for you to capitalize on it.

Here’s why (and how) you should revisit SMS marketing to generate revenue.

The Many Advantages of SMS Marketing

Do you think

Instagram

has good engagement numbers?

Wait until you see what text messages get.

SMS Marketing Advantage #1. Texting Has The Best Engagement Rate of Any Marketing Medium

Emails can sit unread for days, phone calls can go unanswered, but text messages are almost always read immediately after they’re sent.

We already talked about the comparatively dismal open rates for email. The average CTR for PPC ads is even worse at

The point is that SMS marketing is underrated and underappreciated.

But nothing great comes without its catch.

It’s neither ethical nor legal to send unsolicited messages with text-message marketing.

You need a written opt-in.

Fortunately, customers have an easy way to opt themselves in — or out — straight from their mobile phones with most text-marketing services.

Using

Attentive’s

patent-pending “two-tap” technology, customers can opt-in to a brand’s text messaging subscriber list seamlessly from their mobile website, social media, or other digital channels.

With one tap, a message will populate in their message inbox. They simply press send on the pre-populated text message to opt-in and receive a welcome message.

Here are some of the advantages of mobile text messaging.

SMS Marketing Advantage #2. It’s Trackable

There are countless texting platforms that allow you to manage your campaign all from your desktop.

Find a solution that will give you access to detailed analytics that lets you track each step in the conversion process, starting with the initial delivery and opening.

SMS Marketing Advantage #3.

You Can Leverage Interactive Content

Mobile messaging makes it possible to get feedback from your recipients quickly via a quick tap on the ‘reply’ button or a click on your link.

You can deliver quick, simple messages that direct subscribers back to your site.

For example,

Chipotle

excels at using mobile messaging to drive sales.

It’s short and sweet. It gets straight to the point with “free chips and guac” if you play their game.

Not a bad deal, right?

Especially since they have queso now, too.

Get creative with your text-marketing campaigns and take a page out of the Chipotle playbook.

SMS Marketing Advantage #4. Immediate Delivery

Overall, mobile marketing is fast. Once you press “send,” your message goes out instantly.

You can set up a campaign and have hundreds of clicks within minutes.

SMS Marketing Advantage #5. Add a Personal Touch

Sending a text message via your mobile device gives you an informal opportunity to personalize the message.

For example,

the Banana Republic

often sends text messages that include words like “friends” and “your.”

Using words like “you” and “I” is one of my favorite techniques for driving engagement.

The Banana Republic also does an excellent job of tapping into local events that are relevant to the recipient.

See? The opportunities with SMS are endless.

You can personalize your message, direct users to fun games where they can win coupons, and track every step of the conversion process.

Here’s how it works.

The Basic Components of SMS Marketing

The two basic components of a typical SMS-marketing campaign are the keyword and the shortcode. Here’s an example:

Text “POPCORN” to 555555 for our weekly list of flavors!

“POPCORN” is the keyword that gets placed in the body of the message.

“555555” is the shortcode that gets put in the recipient box.

When a customer sends that message, they’re “opting in” to your campaign. It’s as easy as that.

From there you can do a few different things.

Go ahead and send them a single, automated response to follow up and let them know what to expect next. Or you can just add them to a list that will send additional texts over time.

There are other ways to get customers to opt-in. Let them check a box on an order form or

submit their phone numbers online

Numbers received this last way have to be confirmed, however, since a customer could always enter a number incorrectly.

So before you add them to a campaign, you’ll have to confirm their participation with another message.

For example, you could send. “Text ‘YES’ to receive weekly coupons.”

Once they’ve opted in, customers can also respond to your messages with sub-keywords.

For example, sending the phrase “Hours” could trigger an automated text to send business hours, and “Stop” could remove the subscriber from the list.

Allowing customers to use sub-keywords gives them a way to interact with your business. It also enables them to opt-out of your campaign if they wish to stop receiving messages.

Once you’ve got the basics down, you can tap into creative ideas — like Chipotle’s game, which we covered earlier.

SMS Marketing Strategies to Try

Mobile texting tactics are diverse.

However, they should be pretty familiar if you’ve already run

social promotions and contests

For example, you can send coupons, drive traffic, or engage people through fun, simple games.

Here are some of the best potential uses for SMS marketing.

SMS Marketing Tip #1. Coupons and Exclusive Deals

Start by creating uniquely-generated coupon codes to prevent non-subscribers from taking advantage of your deal.

That way, people have to subscribe to save.

Check out this example from

Redbox

Redbox also takes advantage of “add to wallet.”

It’s giving you a simple one-click option to hook up your phone’s payment system with its offer.

Plus, the subscriber gets an extra incentive for taking this additional step. Customers don’t have to take an extra step to pay when they want to rent movies.

SMS Marketing Tip #2. Use Drip Campaigns

Drip campaigns

are automated messages sent based on specific factors, such as how long someone has been a customer.

Think of this as just another form of

marketing automation

You can create triggers or tailored responses depending on each individual’s status.

In the context of coupons, for example, you could send a 5 percent off coupon right after the subscriber signs up, a 10 percent coupon after three weeks, and a 20 percent off coupon after two months.

The longer they stick around, the bigger the potential bonus. So you’re incentivizing the action you want.

Best of all, you can schedule these to run automatically.

One will be sent as soon as a customer signs up or opts in. That way, you don’t need to keep sending individual messages.

SMS Marketing Tip #3. Poll Your Customers

Polls let your customers text different keywords to cast a vote.

With most services, you can

run polls

to collect responses over a period of time and graph the responses from your online dashboard.

These are relatively simple when you think about it.

However, they offer an interesting content piece.

You can use the results internally to improve your operations.

Or you can reuse the results in both blog and social content to leverage your unique, proprietary information.

The people who left an answer will also be more eager to find out what the eventual results were and even help you share them.

SMS Marketing Tip #4. Run a Sweepstakes Contest

You can have customers sign themselves up for sweepstakes by texting a particular keyword.

Once again, this is a standard promotion tactic.

You can select some winners from everyone who opts in. Or you can also give away a smaller prize to every person who texts your keyword.

You can even use it as an opportunity for cross-promotions.

Sterling Vineyards and Uber did that to give away free rides to Sterling’s customer base.

SMS Marketing Tip #5. Send Photos and Videos

In addition to actual text SMS messaging, you can also send photos and videos.

Here’s what I mean.

Let’s say you wanted to send an eBook preview or another image-style CTA.

Check out this example I created to see what’s possible with just a few minutes worth of work.

Want to create this type of marketing message? I’ll show you how a bit later in this piece.

Use Facebook to Grow Your SMS List

Instead of putting all of your eggs in one basket, use multiple channels to segment subscribers.

SMS and

Facebook Ads

are excellent on their own. But they can be even better when you use them together.

I recommend checking out Facebook’s

lead ads

to integrate with your SMS campaigns.

Lead ads are great for collecting data and information to build up a large subscriber base.

Here’s how to get started.

Head to the Facebook Ads Manager and create a new ad, selecting lead generation as your objective.

After you’ve set your target audience, budget, and placements, head down to the lead form option to set up your ad and collect phone numbers.

Here’s what the finished product should look like.

Now you get a multi-step form that doesn’t bombard the user with an instant information grab.

Instead, it uses multiple steps to warm them up to your offer.

Pretty cool, right?

Here’s what the second step of the form looks like.

Once you’ve configured your settings, you’ve got a simple way to collect phone numbers immediately.

That means you’re almost ready to start getting your first SMS campaign off the ground.

How to Automate SMS Marketing

Since we’re into the idea of working smarter and not harder, I suggest automating the SMSM marketing process.

Let’s face it: Marketing automation saves precious time you can spend

growing your business.

For example, you don’t have to manually export and import lead data. Instead, you can use a tool like

Zapier

to quickly build out an automated process.

Zapier connects with just about every marketing software you can think of, including MailChimp, Gmail, Facebook Ads, Slack, and many of the biggest CRMs on the market.

So if you get a few people submitting phone numbers in your Facebook lead ads, you can send them directly to your CRM, your messaging platform, and even various SMS marketing platforms. All at the same time!

Here’s a few of the texting apps they work with, or you can

search here.

Let’s dive straight in, shall we?

First, select Facebook Lead Ads from the workflow ideas list.

Next, select it as your trigger.

So whenever a lead fills out your lead capture form, it will trigger the following action that you want to set.

I’ll show you how to set that up in one second. But it could be anything from sending that lead form information to your CRM to connecting it to your SMS marketing software.

Now, let’s select this action once you’ve connected your Facebook account to Zapier’s workflow.

The action determines what happens with the data from your lead forms.

For example, you can instantly add a new lead to your SMS app of choice. Then you can even automate the first message that will go out to them after they’re added.

All of this automation saves you countless hours of manually transferring data and information.

Conclusion

Let’s be honest: SMS marketing can be kinda spammy.

It has evolved a lot over the past few years, though.

People are attached to their phones more than ever, and SMS marketing allows you to get direct access to your customers.

If you can get them to opt-in, they’re never going to miss an update or offer from your company ever again.

Especially if your SMS are

personalized for the recipient!

Find an SMS app

and start sending coupons, polling your customers, running sweepstakes, sending photos, and driving sales. The options are limitless.

Get creative with your text offers and

watch your ROI grow fast.

Have you received any SMS marketing messages that you just had to respond to?

See How My Agency Can Drive Massive Amounts of Traffic to Your Website

SEO – unlock massive amounts of SEO traffic. See real results.

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Book a Call

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Go to Source Author: Neil Patel

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