if your activism can be significantly disrupted by a few hours of award show, you're just a bad activist

Something has been bugging me since the end of the Playful land event: How does the world not notice that these people are never seen again after going to this park. Even if its stated that only the positive magicam posts are the only things that leave the park, surely those guest's families/friends/employers/neighbors that didn't attend the park wouldn't eventually notice their absence. Moreover, how does no one still on land notice that the moving park leaves whilst everyone is still on it, and it never comes back to drop them off.

Makes me wonder if Twst has some sort of United Nations that would be alerted of this and set a worldwide lock down, so when the park needs to connect to a mainland again the country's military can apprehended them.

One of the biiig question marks of both Glorious Masquerade and Stage in Playful Land are all of the potential repercussions of Rollo/Fellow's schemes coming into fruition. The stakes of these two events are notably much higher than your typical TWST event, and that opens their stories up to further scrutiny. I'll talk about GloMasq first, then Playful Land, since I feel the former is also relevant to the points the asker mentioned.

This is going to be kind of a long post, so I'll slap everything below a cut! ^^

I don't know how frequently this is brought up, but I've heard some say it's unrealistic how Rollo was able to find the seeds for a supposedly wiped out plant and cultivate a ton in secret for his master plan. Now, I'm willing to suspend my disbelief in this instance because:

Spite can make a person do insane things (and what is Rollo is not spiteful as heck)

Rollo has lore which paints him as a diligent person who has a talent for gardening, so it feels in line for his character; he also seems to have an interest in history and is extremely neurotic so I could buy that he obsessively researched until he came across records or some trail to the flowers

The Bell of Salvation's ringing twice in a row is what triggers the flowers to bloom, and this has not happened prior to GloMasq because Rollo is the one who is consistently tending to the bell + the bell normally has a preset schedule; anyone that passes by the flowers would do so when they are inactive, and they are such an old phenomenon to begin with that no one in modern day would really recognize it or the danger the flowers pose

The narrative of GloMasq never calls attention to HOW Rollo was able to get the seeds, so it's not something that comes to mind unless you as the fan speculate about it; this doesn't come across as a plot hole, but it would be one if the narrative had pointed it out because then it would practically be obligated to fill the details in

The other major logical fallacy of GloMasq is that Rollo's machinations would have inevitably led to chaos once the flowers reached the rest of Twisted Wonderland, as some sections of society are reliant on magic. Now, I disagree with the notion that mages could band together and fight back against the flowers; we've seen from how the NRC students handle it that this would be a pretty useless effort since only the super powerful (which are few and far between) would be able to muster up enough magic to overpower the flowers. The majority of people are non-mages though, so the argument could be made that these people could help the mages by weeding or something similar. The question is, could this truly outpace the growth and attack of the flowers, especially when the average mage has far lower magical reserves than the average NRC student??? Remember how long it took the NRC kids (who are mostly healthy, youthful, and strong) to weed just the flowers in the waterways? My money's on the crimson flowers just overrunning the entire world long before they can be plucked out.

I actually think most societies would still be intact and able to operate without magic, seeing as 90% of the human population (which is implied to be the predominant race) are non-mages. Only very select industries and professions require magic to operate, and these are overrepresented to us (the players) since we are seeing the perspectives of mainly students who attend an elite magic school. These magical sectors, as well as societies which run primarily on everyday magic use (like Briar Valley) are the ones that would be the most in danger. This most likely explains why Malleus in particular was so panicked about Rollo's plans: if fully realized, his people would be in grave danger. This is not outright stated, but can be inferred. The main story also retroactively affirms Malleus's fears of being powerless. He was always told by his grandmother that the Draconias have great power so they can defend their people's smiles. What happens if that magic is stripped away? Then he is no longer able to protect his people nor his loved ones. In this way, GloMasq works well as both a standalone event as well as supplements TWST' grander story. It does not challenge what we already know but does support it.

Altogether, most details in GloMasq make sense and the event doesn't go out of its way to create more questions than answers. This... isn't the case for Playful Land. In fact, I would say that Playful Land does the opposite (in trying to explain plot holes, it creates a LOT more questions) and tries to hand wave everything away with one thing: money.

Firstly, Playful Land is kidnapping and trafficking innocent people (even if the park is said to be a more recent phenomena). Would their friends and family not notice they went missing and report this to the local authorities? My guess is yes, it's just not elaborated on in the event itself since the perspective through which the story is told is limited (Yuu doesn't know this world that well + the NRC kids, who are the people Yuu gets a lot of the lore from, are mostly privileged and don't need to worry about crimes of this magnitude). I believe the "people go missing, why aren't the police doing anything about it" can maybe allude to real world crimes that occur but aren't reported or resolved, which is very scary to think about. I don't know if this was the intention of the devs, but the comparison is certainly there and can be made. Or maybe it’s just that law enforcement hasn’t caught up yet?

It’s also odd to me that so many people were able to be taken by this huge, very showy moving park. I think that Fellow lures people out under the cover of night (which was the case with the NRC students, I will assume this is the case for the other victims too), but???? Even so, there are night owls and cities that don’t sleep. You mean to imply there were zero witnesses whatsoever??? Even though Playful Land is so big and bright, especially at night… Maybe this part plays into the idea that crimes may be reported but aren’t necessarily resolved…? That’s the only way I can rationalize it in my head.

Where the bulk of the issues start to come in is in alllllll the surrounding details. For example, a lot of the NRC students Fellow is kidnapping are connected to wealthy and influential families. How the heck are Fellow and his benefactors going to keep Vil’s fans, the Kingscholars, the Shrouds, the Asims, the hypothetical Leech mob family, and maybe even Maleficia herself and Malleus, from coming after their asses???? AND FELLOW SPECIFICALLY FUCKED UP BY ENCOURAGING THEM TO “INVITE THEIR FRIENDS” FROM SCHOOL… because guess who will be spilling the beans to the headmaster about students going missing the day after inviting everyone to go to this supposedly “free” amusement park?? All the students Fellow told them to blab to just so he could catch more of them 😭 Then from there it would definitely escalate and governments might get involved since Leona is a prince and Kalim has royal relatives. I could see Playful Land having to go on the run (as in, have supplies delivered to them rather then docking for them, knowing that police or military would be there to arrest them at ports). But they can’t do that forever, especially since not being able to dock effectively prevents them from picking up new prey.

With the combined powers of the NRC victims’ families, they would surely be able to challenge the people behind Playful Land, no?? Unless you mean to tell me these mysterious people somehow have more power than literal royalty AND the Asims combined??? And we’ve never heard of them until just now??? Okay, you’re starting to lose me here because this is adding on top of the lore we already have but in a way that comes off as difficult to believe since the amount of wealth and power some of the NRC kids have is already ridiculous.

Playful Land is also supposedly constructed by very powerful mages which makes me wonder why they got together to create such a thing???? Did they literally all get bribed with enough money to agree to this project? Were they deceived about the true nature of it?? Are the other 4 of the top 5 strongest mages involved in any way??? How was this not publicized that it was a project that very strong mages were working on given how few mages there actually are and how much Playful Land is talked about in online rumors??

Speaking of online rumors, that’s another thing. How are the people behind Playful Land able to monitor any and all talk about their park to this degree?? This is the internet we’re talking about here, surely stuff will fall through the cracks or come to light eventually. Someone would leak insider info, someone would say something.

The easy explanation given for everything is that there are very rich and very powerful people running these operations. They would be able to silence people who speak out against them or bribe the corrupt into complying or looking the other way. Maybe that’s just a sad truth I don’t want to acknowledge (because this stuff for sure happens irl 😞) but that all sounds WAY too convenient for fiction (where the devs have total control over the circumstances) especially when we’re given so little lore for who these benefactors actually are.

There’s still way too many questions and even turning on suspension of disbelief couldn’t stop those questions from arising in my head. At best, I think we could give the devs the benefit of the doubt and say this was intentional to keep up the idea of a “shadowy” underbelly to Twisted Wonderland society. Even so, that doesn’t account for every little thing and the event’s attempts to explain it all only makes more things to explain.

I tried to explain my perspective as best I can here! However, I admit that there may be bias in my judgment because I’ve made it no secret that GloMasq is my favorite TWST story event. Please let me know if you have any other issues with GloMasq’s narrative or if you have explanations for the issues I pointed out for Playful Land; I would love to hear your takes too ^^

Donald Trump took the stage in Greensboro, N.C. last Saturday calling for rounding up millions of Latinos across America and putting them in mass detention camps as part of “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” Unfortunately, this kind of rhetoric has become so common among the MAGA Republican playlist that it’s tempting to see it as a joke. But that wasn’t just somebody’s racist grandfather running off at the mouth or a standup comedian with bad taste playing to the crowd. My parents and grandparents would have called it a dog whistle, but my generation should know it’s a bullhorn. But whatever you call it, it was calculated, drafted, tested and approved as part of the far-right Project 2025 plan to turn back the clock on civil rights, women’s rights, workers’ rights and democracy itself. It was the white Christian nationalist agenda on full public display in all its un-American glory and we can’t afford to take it lightly.

Now, if you haven’t heard about Project 2025, don’t feel bad. Most people haven’t. Founded in 2022 by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation, it’s an organization led by Trump insiders preparing for one nation under Trump if the twice impeached and four times indicted former president wins the November election and to call them dangerous is an understatement.

What do you think about overhauling federal law enforcement so that the Department of Justice and the FBI, designed to be independent and insulated from political influence, were controlled directly by a newly elected and emboldened President Trump so he could protect his minions from investigation, arrest and prosecution no matter how many laws they broke? Project 2025 loves the idea.

Want to bypass the Senate confirmation process and stop notifying Congress when we sell weapons to foreign governments? Project 2025 does. What about terminating every diversity, equity and inclusion program in the federal government? Project 2025 says right on. What do you think about invoking martial law, using the military as local law enforcement and locking up Trump opponents? Project 2025 calls that progress.

But how do they plan on doing all this? After all, the federal government is more than just one person in the Oval Office. Trump already learned that lesson when federal employees and even some of his own appointees refused to break the law just because he said so.

But Project 2025 has a solution to that roadblock. They call it Schedule F and it’s a plan to fire as many as 50,000 federal employees and replace them with dyed-in-the-wool MAGA fanatics who swear their loyalty not to America or the Constitution but to Donald J. Trump. They’re not even trying to keep it a secret. But why would they?

You see, Project 2025 isn’t confused about who they are. They’re the MAGA Manifesto committed to the unapologetic vision of right-wing nationalism and they don’t care who knows it. Let’s be honest, these guys are attacking President Biden for pushing “racial equity in every area of our national life, including in employment.” Is that supposed to be a bad thing? Are we supposed to think our president should not be fighting for equality and justice?

That’s what Project 2025 says. But that shouldn’t surprise us. After all, they don’t think folks who look like me are real Americans. Neither does Trump.

But they’re not clowns. They’re highly trained, well-funded political operatives dedicated to winning in November and remaking America in their white nationalist image. They’ve spent the past two years putting together a plan to do just that setting the highest stakes imaginable for this election.

(continue reading)

AC-130 Gunship’s Laser Weapon Cancelled, 105mm Howitzer May Be Removed

The AC-130J was set to get the first operational airborne laser weapon, but that plan is over as the gunship changes to ensure its relevance.

Joseph TrevithickPUBLISHED Mar 19, 2024 1:56 PM EDT

The US Air Force no longer plans to flight test a laser directed energy weapon on an AC-130J Ghostrider gunship.

USAF

The U.S. Air Force has scrapped plans to flight test an AC-130J Ghostrider gunship armed with a laser directed energy weapon after years of delays. The Airborne High Energy Laser program for the AC-130J had for a time looked set to become the U.S. military's first operational aerial laser directed weapon. This all also comes amid a review of the AC-130J's current and future planned capabilities, which could see the gunships lose their 105mm howitzers, as part of a broader shift away from counter-insurgency operations to planning for a high-end fight.

Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) confirmed that there are no longer plans to test the prototype Airborne High Energy Laser (AHEL) system on an AC-130J and provided other details about the current state of the program to The War Zone earlier today.

"After accomplishing significant end-to-end high power operation in an open-air ground test, the AHEL solid state laser system experienced technical challenges," an AFSOC spokesperson said in a statement. "These challenges delayed integration onto [the] designated AC-130J Block 20 aircraft past the available integration and flight test window."

One past US Air Force rendering of an AC-130 with a laser directed energy weapon. USAF

The original hope was flight testing of an AC-130J with the AHEL system would take place sometime in the 2021 Fiscal Year, but this schedule was repeatedly pushed back. In November 2023, AFSOC told The War Zone that a laser-armed Ghostrider was set to take to the skies in January of this year, something that clearly did not occur.

Lockheed Martin received the initial contract in 2019 to supply the AHEL's laser source for the system and lead the effort to integrate the system onto an AC-130J. The complete AHEL system also includes a beam director and other components.

A now-dated US Special Operations Command briefing slide discussing the AHEL program and the components of the weapon system itself. SOCOM

"As a result, the program was re-focused on ground testing to improve operations and reliability to posture for a successful hand off for use by other agencies," the statement added.

This is all further confirmed by the Pentagon's 2025 Fiscal Year budget request, which was rolled out last week, and does not ask for any new funding for AHEL. Official budget documents say this is because the program is expected to close out in the 2024 Fiscal Year.

What "other agencies" might now be in line to benefit from the AHEL program's work and the exact status of the 60-kilowatt class laser directed energy weapon system developed under the program are unclear. AFSOC directed further questions to U.S. Special Operations Command, which The War Zone has now reached out to for more information.

The U.S. Navy's Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division (NSWC Dahlgren) had already been deeply involved in the AHEL program. The Navy has been very active in the development and fielding of various types of shipboard directed energy weapons, including another 60-kilowatt class laser directed energy weapon called the High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance, or HELIOS. Lockheed Martin is also the prime contractor for that system.

The US Navy's Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Preble pierside in San Diego in July 2022. The ship's HELIOS directed energy weapon system can be seen on a platform immediately in front of the main superstructure. USN

The U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps have also been working to develop and field different types of air and ground-based directed energy weapons.

The Air Force has been working on at least one other aerial laser directed energy weapon in recent years, under the Air Force Research Laboratory's (AFRL) Self-protect High Energy Laser Demonstrator (SHiELD) program. The SHiELD effort was centered around a podded system for tactical jets ostensibly intended to help defend against incoming missiles, though it would have the ability to engage other target sets. In the past, the stated goal was to begin flight testing of the SHiELD pod in 2025, but its current status is unclear.

A rendering of a US Air Force F-16C Viper fighter with a podded laser directed energy weapon. Lockheed Martin

The Air Force is pursuing other directed energy weapon programs, including for base defense use on the ground. Additional work is understood to be going on in the classified realm, including efforts tied to the larger Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative.

For the Air Force's current fleet of 30 AC-130Js, the end of the AHEL program comes amid larger questions about the future of Ghostrider's armament package and other current and future capabilities. There are growing signs that the Ghostriders are set to lose their 105mm howitzers as part of this reassessment of the aircraft's capabilities.

"Initiate engineering analysis and development to remove the aft weapon system (105mm Gun), refit the aft section, and optimize crew workload in support of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) crew reduction initiatives," is the plan for the AC-130Js in the 2024 Fiscal Year, according to the Pentagon's latest budget request. The War Zone has reached out to AFSOC for further clarification.

The Air Force originally planned not to include a 105mm howitzer in the armament package for the AC-130J, which was originally focused more on the employment of precision-guided missiles and bombs than guns at all. The service subsequently changed course and had more recently been in the process of integrating improved howitzers onto the Ghostriders. That work came to a halt last year after the start of the capability review. As of last November, only 17 of the 30 AC-130Js had gotten this upgrade.

AFSOC has been taking this new look at the Ghostrider's current and future planned capabilities in large part due to discussions about how AC-130Js might contribute to future high-end conflicts, especially one in the Pacific against China. AC-130Js, which are today primarily tasked with providing very close support to special operations forces on the ground, currently operate almost exclusively in permissive and semi-permissive environments and at night.

AHEL has been presented in the past as being ideally suited to supporting lower-intensity counter-insurgency-type missions.

"Without the slightest bang, whoosh, thump, explosion, or even aircraft engine hum, four key targets [an electrical transformer, the engine of a pick-up truck, communication equipment, and a parked drone,] are permanently disabled," now-retired Lt. Gen. Brad Webb, then head of AFSOC, said in a 2017 interview with National Defense magazine, describing a notional mission for a laser-armed AC-130. "The enemy has no communications, no escape vehicle, no electrical power, and no retaliatory intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capability. Minutes later, the team emerges from the compound, terrorist mastermind in hand. A successful raid."

In line with all this, the Air Force is also looking to add a new active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radar to these gunships, "allowing the platform to detect, target, identify, and engage across a spectrum of threats at longer ranges and react with greater precision," according to Pentagon budget documents. You can read more about the benefits of adding an AESA to the AC-130J here.

Other specialized C-130 variants belonging to AFSOC have been heavily involved in the testing of a palletized weapon system called Rapid Dragon. Rapid Dragon offers a way to readily transform existing cargo aircraft into launch platforms for AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) cruise missiles and other stand-off munitions. SOCOM has previously expressed interest in the past in integrating precision-guided munitions with longer reach onto the AC-130, in part to help keep those aircraft away from increasingly capable enemy air defenses. A return to a focus on precision-guided munition employment when it comes to the Ghostriders could be important for ensuring their continued operational relevance.

Altogether, the exact mix of capabilities found on the AC-130Js looks set to significantly evolve in the near term. However, a laser directed energy weapon is no longer on the horizon for the Ghostriders.

Howard Altman contributed to this story.

Contact the author: [email protected]

@warzonewire via X

A New England Planespotter In...England (And Scotland)

So I've just gotten back from two weeks in London, almost directly beneath one of the arrival paths to Heathrow. One weird thing about being in London was that...my home airport, Logan, is big, sure, lots of international flights, but it's weird in that it's only a hub for three airlines, one of which is domestic. Being sandwiched between NYC and Newark does that to a place. So we get a pretty small selection of airlines here, all things considered.

Heathrow? Literally while taxiing from the runway to the gate I saw us go past an Air Mauritius and a Royal Brunei Airlines plane (and I didn't have my camera out to take a picture!). On the way out on my way home I saw a RwandAir plane (and it was at an angle behind me where I couldn't get a picture of it either!). I saw multiple A380s a day from British Airways and Singapore Airlines, and even a 747 flying for Korean Air Cargo went overhead! (747s never fly to Logan.) I saw THAI, Air India, TAROM, Air Serbia, and the full complement of gulf carriers - which I expected - and China Southern Airlines, which I somehow didn't.

Hey, wait, is that tailfin...

There she is! (I was so happy to see her that I think I startled the person sitting next to me.)

There were of course the usual faces as well - Delta, American Airlines, and even JetBlue now flies to London. I didn't see any full-size FedEx planes, but I did see a FedEx Feeder ATR 72 (at least I think it's a 72) at Edinburgh Airport.

(she was quite far away and the image is inevitably very crunchy)

A few other cargo airlines more typical of Europe were parked nearby her - DHL, Maersk Air Cargo (in the old Star Air livery), West Atlantic, and whoever that is at the end - the livery feels so familiar, actually, but there's no wordmark and half of me thinks it's a wet lease that hasn't been painted. If anyone remembers what's on the tip of my tongue, please do tell me.

While entirely expected, I also enjoyed seeing little Loganair ERJs around in Edinburgh. They're so short! I was arriving in an A320 and even then I had to wait until I was on the ground to take a decent picture that wasn't half cut off by the plane I was actually in.

I don't know enough about Loganair's routes to know what they actually fly to Edinburgh, but a tiny part of me was sad I didn't see any of their littler prop planes. I have a huge soft spot for the Britten-Norman Islander, the first prop plane I ever got to fly on, which Loganair operates two of. Among their uses in the fleet is operating the shortest scheduled route in the world, which lasts around a minute and is about as long as the runway I landed on when I took all those pictures. I won't pretend it's not on my bucket list. (To be fair, I am also legitimately interested in the archaeological sites on Papa Westray...just maybe not interested enough to take a longer flight to see them.)

These aren't all the airlines I saw, but the rest I'm saving for other days and other posts. Still, there is one more type of airplane I saw which I think I have never actually seen in Massachusetts. When I was at Edinburgh I heard this bizarre loud thing that sounded like nothing I'd ever heard before and looked up and saw what I thought was a C-130. Then I realized it was actually an A400M with its weird scimitar propellers. As far as I'm aware this is the first airlift plane I've seen in person that wasn't a static display and it's definitely the first plane I've seen that sounds like that. I also got to see my first ever helicopter that wasn't a tiny little general aviation thing in the form of a Chinook going right over my head at...really not that high, but it didn't have its transponder on so I couldn't tell you more exactly. Is that a thing in London? Airplane-sized military helicopters at low heights over populated areas with their transponders off? I don't remember ever seeing that before but I suppose it has been a while. It was very, very strange.

And that's a non-exhaustive list of the things you just don't get to see in Boston! I will definitely talk about some of these airlines in full someday, but some of them I probably won't. I at least had a lot of fun pointing at airplanes and going "wow...".

UnderWAR Casts Re-Design #4

The Key Members

The rest of the casts are those who aren't in a particular family, but just as or even more important than the 3 families.

Justika Languar

She is the step-daughter of Magi, an old war veteran turtle back in the Demon apocalypse. She was trained as a child to fend for herself, and during that time she learned the rarity and importance of kindness to others. When she was 18, she entered the military academy.

Justika is the top graduate of the military academy and graduated just 2 years after she entered it. She then became Azuro's student and was able to improve a lot during that time. She was able to enter the Elite Guards in such a young age because of it.

She has a huge crush on Rollin the Royal Scientist and was basically chasing after her the entire time until Rollin finally submitted to the relationship. Rollin nicknamed the young gal "Rookie".

Kaosu Arachnia

5-year-old Kaosu was taken from the street as a student and personal assistant by Yulian. She was trained into a deadly assassin and spy until she left to be a mercenary when she was 15. She kept a healthy relationship with Yulian after that.

Kaosu is a top mercenary that is often hired by the empire for many, many discreet operations and espionage. During that time she was spying on the young improving Torch and as he turned adult she made him submit to her. And that was the beginning of their wild relationship.

Her webs are able to read someone's true intention, and so does hurting them if they said otherwise. Her webs can be turned into a whip if need be. And other... desirable thing between her and Torch.

EXO

EXO is Rollin's greatest creation and the most advanced AI in the entire AU. He is empowered by the POWERED SOUL, an artificial soul created by Rollin when she was just 18. EXO is the eyes and ears of the empire, while also being its ULTIMATE weapon against the demons.

He has two forms, the monitor and the WAR form. In his monitor form, he helps Rollin with the lab and assists every imperial matter. In his WAR mode, he is truly one of the most powerful beings in the AU. Even more powerful than Frederick. He rarely uses this mode as he has no need for it often.

EXO does not have emotions even if he has a soul. He's only truly loyal to Rollin and will do everything to protect her, even if it means sacrificing himself.

Hikari Grilsea

He is Frederick's childhood friend and personal advisor. He helped Frederick and the rebellion using his IVORY FLAMES and his intelligence. In the present days he's the current Royal Advisor, helping out any imperial matters. He was also responsible for training both Torch and Azuro empowering their pyrokinesis.

He once had a family which was killed by the demons, and now he chose to live as a lone wolf despite his busy schedule. He was very impressed when Azuro managed to defeat him in a pyrokinesis battle, which made him accept Azuro as an equal.

His POWER soul allowed him to be more powerful than his LV suggested him to be. He can even equal Frederick with his own power alone.

Oni

Oni is an ancient ghost of the underground. Even he doesn't know how long he has lived under here, way longer than even the empire. He hid in shyness and fear when the empire took refuge in the underground for years until Yulian found him and took him in to be her new personal assistant after Kaosu left.

Through Yulian he became braver than he was before. Still shy, but now he can roam through the underground with ease in his soul. Demons can frighten him a bit but he was reminded of being a ghost so he can't really be hurt. He doesn't like violence so he possesses demons and neutralizes them if he can.

He sometimes hangs out with EXO when he's free. Listening to kinds of music and making remixes with him through EXO's monitor.

Previous Casts

The First Casts

UnderWAR belongs to me @revolvius

What’s Going On in Ukraine?: An Explainer (OLD ESSAY)

This essay was first posted on April 7th, 2021, and seems somewhat quaint now in retrospect.

This essay was written in response to the then-ongoing Ukraine crisis where it looked like a war might kick off in the Spring of 2021. Little did we know that it was pretty much just the pre-gaming for what would happen NEXT Spring.

(Full essay below the cut).

So, this is another one of those essays I didn’t originally plan on writing for the month. But then the darndest thing happened about a week ago: Russia got back on its bullshit.

Now everyone is wondering if the war in Eastern Ukraine is going to reignite or potentially escalate even further than the heights it reached after the initial outbreak of war in 2014. Now I don’t think time is a flat circle, but I do think the idea that “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” has some merit here.

As this conflict is a bit of a hobby horse of mine, I’ve been keeping a close eye on it (perhaps too much for my own good) ever since things started to escalate at the end of March. As more of my friends and peers have started to ask questions and express concern over what’s going on and what may happen next and certain parties have started to spread bad takes or downright misinformation and lies, I decided that maybe a little explainer and synthesis of current analysis was in order for folks on what the situation is currently with Ukraine and Russia.

I was going to write about Iran this month, but I guess we’ll save one piece about a potential war crisis and trade it for a separate but different one.

Just up front: this is a situation that is changing every day, so I can only make this as current as the moment I post it – but I’ll do my best in this regard. Also, I’m going to make no illusion about my biases in this case (spoilers: I’m not on Russia’s side, and if you have a problem with that, I dunno: cry about it, tankie). Also, a lot of my sources for this are Tweets and threads by analysts and observers that have been popping up as things have been going on and have the potential to suddenly vanish – as Twitter is want to do – so I apologize for any broken links or lost sources.

What’s Exactly Is Happening?

Over the past week, we’ve seen an extensive Russian military buildup along its border with Ukraine. Now, that in itself is not unusual. Russia holds large-scale military exercises – including both planned and snap drills – on a pretty regular basis. None of that specifically is new or shocking. But analysts have pointed out that there are several factors that make this occurrence different in a worrying way.

First there’s the context. This military buildup happens in the midst of a sudden and sharp escalation in hostilities along the line of contact between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian rebels in the Donbas region. While the war in Donbas has remained very much active since reaching a stalemate in 2015, it has been relatively quiet and low-level until now. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe has registered a sharp increase in violations of the ceasefire previously agreed upon between the belligerents in July of last year.  As of April 6, 2021, two more Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the previous 24 hours, with four having been killed by enemy shelling in late March (it is unknown how many rebel troops have died, if any). It is against that backdrop that Russia is now flowing additional military forces into the region.

Another part of the context factor is the timing. While Russia does undertake large, seasonal exercises, analysts and observers have noted that these drills have taken place outside of the typical schedule. And while Russia has been known to undertake snap drills and exercises, again, experts note that they’ve never seen a sudden callup or mobilization like this one outside of scheduled wargames before. Its not an understatement to say that its pretty unprecedented. For what it’s worth, Russia has now declared a combat readiness check across the entire Ministry of Defense (after all of these movements had already been going on for several days, of course).

This leads into the second major factor, which is the sheer size of the buildup. Over the past week, social media has been flushed with photos and video of large amounts of Russian military equipment flowing west into illegally annexed Crimea and the western regions of Russia bordering on Ukraine. So far, it shows no sign of stopping, with train load after trainload of armor and other vehicles heading west. The Russian military has been using so many railcars that agricultural machinery manufacturers reportedly haven’t been able to ship their goods to farmers for the spring harvest season – a story that state media entity TASS was even reporting on. Other civilian passengers have also noted disruptions.

Closely tied to the size factor is the scope of the mobilization. Not only is Russia flowing large numbers of troops and vehicles to the border, but it’s also bringing them from far afield, all across the country. Some enterprising OSINT practitioners on Twitter were able to identify the original locations of some Russian military units by the numbers on their license plates that indicate which military district they are based in – that is, until the Russians seemed to get wise and start covering those numbers up, along with other identifying markings. Before the Russians started practicing better OPSEC, however, it was identified that many forces were coming from the Central Military District, which covers the Ural Mountains and parts of Siberia and doesn’t even border Ukraine. More questions abound.

The nature of the equipment and units being sent towards Ukraine is also notable and worrying. Main battle tanks with fuel tanks for extended range offensives and plows for pushing through minefields. Artillery and heavy mortars designed to try and break through tough defensive lines. Elite airborne units with high levels of readiness that already have a history of involvement in eastern Ukraine. Both short and long-range air defense systems. These are all also worrying signs. They once again, could very well be explained away by large scale offensive wargames, but combined with everything else it raises the blood pressure and anxiety levels of defense analysts such as myself.

Ukraine appears to be reacting to this increasingly tense situation as well. Aside from issuing strong statements and calling for support from the United States, NATO and the West – and receiving at least some military support thus far, it now also appears to be flowing its own reinforcements towards Donbas. It’s well within its right to do so and I can‘t blame it for doing that, but this in itself is a worrying sign that this all could potentially lead to a resumption of fighting not seen since the height of the initial Donbas war – potentially even surpassing it.

Why Is This Happening?

That is the million-dollar question on most Russia and/or military watchers minds right now and everyone on the internet has been offering their two cents as to why Russia is undertaking this buildup. My answer for now is a resounding “we don’t quite know yet.”

Despite the increasing number of concerning factors and unanswered questions raising doubts about the Russian intent behind this buildup, the safe money is still (probably) on this being an attempt at posturing/signaling/intimidation. Russia has many reasons to want to intimidate and posture against Ukraine given their acrimonious relationship since 2014 and far before, but chief among them is discouraging Ukraine from any attempt to retake the rebel-held Donbas or annex Crimea by showing that Russia is willing and able to mobilize its military might to defend their pro-Russian allies. Likewise, it doesn’t hurt to demonstrate to the rest of the world – including other potential adversaries – that you’re able to mobilize and rapidly transport a significant portion of your military across vast distances to meet a perceived threat.

 That being said, while posturing is still the most likely outcome, enough unusual facts and elements have emerged with this build-up to raise questions as to whether its only posturing. This is the opinion of Russia analyst Michael Kofman from the Center for Naval Analyses, who was initially far more certain about this being a posturing exercise by Russia. As of today, while still leaning towards posturing and intimidation as the explanation, says there’s still too much uncertainty and concerning factors to be sure of the motive and that the situation still merits cautious and careful observation and analysis before being too sure about what is going on.

None of this is helped by the fact that Russia is notoriously opaque about its intent when it comes to these things, more so than even the usual song and dance of geopolitics that states and nations engage in. Further alarm bells are raised by the way the Russian propaganda machine appears to have suddenly gone into overdrive, both in terms of spreading disinformation on social media, but also in the sudden bellicose tone taken by state-run media as well. All of this raises deeper questions about Russia’s intent in this situation, with no real satisfactory answers so far.

What Might Happen Next?

That’s the next big question on everyone’s minds, after “why this is all happening.” If this is all just posturing, the most likely outcome is Russia decides it has enough forces in the region for its liking, does a series of drills and exercises along the border to try and intimidate Ukraine and the West, and then wraps everything up and sends all the troops back to barracks without incident. The war in Ukraine resumes its Frozen Conflict status – until the next crisis of course – and everything goes back to “normal”.

But what if it’s not all just for show? Could Russia launch a wholesale invasion of Ukraine? That’s not impossible, but it would be a significant escalation on Russia’s part and is probably the least probable of all the outcomes if you were to ask any Russia watcher. If Russia openly launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine, it could at best further isolate and cement its international status as a pariah among nations. At worst, that could even bring NATO fully into the conflict, escalating what was a regional, internal conflict, into a full-scale European or even world war. Again, none that doesn’t mean such an escalation is impossible (unfortunately), but Russia would be taking an exceptional risk – one that I don’t think it would take on a whim and with the eyes of the world on it unless it suddenly had an excellent excuse fall in its lap or it felt it had no other choice in order to defend some vital interest or its very existence as a state.

What might be more likely – and what Kofman lays out in one of his previously mentioned twitter threads – is that a significant escalation of fighting within the Donbas might be in store. We may see fighting of the same intensity as the early days of the war but limited to skirmishes and clashes in that region and not spreading beyond it. That’s not great, sure. But its not as bad as the war spreading beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and escalating. He also points out that if any escalation happens, it may not be in our immediate future, but could happen later in April or even in May (guess I better strap myself in for a month of anxiety then).

But, even if Russia’s intent is to simply posture, or only to go on the offensive within Donbas, there’s always the possibility that events on the ground could get out of theirs – and Ukraine’s – grasp and escalate of their own volition. When you pump up the propaganda machine, there’s always the possibility that things can take on a life of their own. Add in the fact that the number of both Russia and Ukrainian forces in the area are increasing, tensions are rising, and additional stress and pressure are being put on everyone involved and you may have problems. Even if neither party wants outright war, its important to remember that states and governments are not single, monolithic, rational actors. They are made up of multiple elements with different – sometimes conflicting – interests and goals. This means that even when its absolutely in a state’s best interest to avoid war and its leaders know that a comedy of errors and missteps can potentially lead them right to that war anyway (Full disclosure: there are some decent arguments against this very idea of “accidental” war but I still think its worth mentioning as an aside).

Isn’t Ukraine Fascist Anyway?

Ok, this one is starkly different in tone, but I want to address this claim in particular because it’s making the rounds by tankies and campists alike to basically justify whatever Russia may or may not end up doing in Ukraine. So, let’s deal with it right now, bluntly.

Does Ukraine have a problem with the far right? Absolutely and undisputedly, it does. Has it done a great job at dealing with that problem? Nope, it has not – as some recent evidence shows. However, it does Ukraine and the regular people living there hoping not to become engulfed in fresh fighting a disservice to simply write the entire country off as a fascist state in its entirety. This thread on Twitter does a far better job than I at addressing some of the tankie talking points being used to try and paint Ukraine as a whole of being in the wrong and worthy of destruction while putting Russia up on a pedestal. To put it simply, while the far-right has been a persistent issue in Ukraine since the 2014 revolution, its power and influence is often overstated for propaganda purposes and the far right is more often than not at odds with the government rather than a full integrated part of it – with many Ukrainians protesting against it as well.

Again, I’m not trying to excuse any behavior here. Ukraine continues to disappoint me in not more effectively dealing with this problem – much as the United States and most of Western Europe does. But this is not a reason to simply abandon the country or actively root for Russia to rip it to shreds. Plus, the same people who are likely to promote these kinds of narratives are also the same ones who are likely to ignore that more than a handful of far-right Russians have found themselves fighting on the opposite side of the conflict. You ever wonder why the infamous Russian mercenary group Wagner got its name? Well that was from its founder, who fought in the early stages of the war in Ukraine and took the nickname “Wagner” because he was fascinated with Nazi Germany – Wagner being one of Hitler’s favorite composers – and would wear a World War II-era German steel helmet into combat. So, take that home with you I guess.

There are plenty of things you can criticize the Ukrainian government about. But I don’t think any of them rise to the level of painting Russia as being the ‘good guy’ in any of this. What Russia has done to Ukraine since 2014 is inexcusable and illegal, whether it be the annexation of Crimea, the invasion of Donbas, and other forms of interference and undermining. I have no problem taking a side when I think someone is in the right or in the wrong, as I did with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Whatever you think about Ukraine, its not in the wrong for defending itself.

Why Should I Care?

I usually end these with a mix of “what happens next” with “why should I care”, but seeing as I already hypothesized a bit on what might happen next, I’ll focus on what this should matter to you (though if you’re reading this I’m going to assume you already care somewhat).

From a national security standpoint, what’s going on in Ukraine is important even if it doesn’t escalate. It shows a continuing pattern of concerning behavior by Russia that, even if it doesn’t culminate in a disaster today, could do so another time. The fact that the media seems to hype up any Russian action as potentially being the harbinger of World War III – especially since the 2016 election interference – may make some people numb to Russia’s activities or even actively push back because of a not-unfounded mistrust of mainstream media narratives. Obviously, we shouldn’t treat every suspicious Russian action like the greatest threat to civilization, but we should be able to view them broadly and recognize a pattern of bad behavior that is becoming increasingly more threatening and could eventually spill over into outright conflict if not responded to properly.

If some kind of war does actually emerge from this crisis, then I feel like I shouldn’t have to explain why you should care. If the conflict spreads out from Donbas and draws in surrounding countries or even NATO, obviously we should care as it may become a threat to us. Even if it remains limited to Donbas in particular or Ukraine in general, we should care because of impact it will have on a people who have already been suffering from the effects of over seven years of on-again, off-again warfare – potentially affecting even more.

This is where the leftist angle comes in, and the spirit of internationalism – and part of why I felt I wanted to write this piece, aside from it being an issue that’s important to me and being current. If leftists are going to take a stand against imperialistic attitudes and actions by the United States towards the rest of the world, or those by any of its allies, then it can’t turn a blind eye to imperialist adventures by other states as well. What’s going in in Ukraine is only the latest event in a long and tortured history between Russia and Ukraine going back to when the Tsars first marched into the region and eventually annexed it into the Russian Empire in the 18th century. Whatever you can criticize Ukraine for, you can still support its people wanting to fight back against an imperial power that simply will not leave it alone. Its one thing to simply not be aware of it, but if you actively reject it, then you’re quite simply just a tankie or a campist and are unknowingly – or knowingly – carrying water for Russia and its own brand of oppression.

To be fair, can we really do anything about this? No, I suppose not. I guess if you really want you could go in fight in Donbas but I wouldn’t recommend that (and probably, legally shouldn’t). I realize it’s a lot to ask people to devote mental and emotional energy to caring about this when A.) we have our own pressing concerns at home; and B.) there is virtually nothing most ordinary people can do to have a direct impact on what’s going on in Ukraine. That being said, a point I often return to is you can’t be a leftist without some empathy, and that includes the plight of people in other countries. Being a good leftist means being a good internationalist and caring about the rest of the world and what happens to it and at least offering some words of support.

Likewise, if we ever hope of actually governing and changing anything some day, these are issues we need to be aware of and have actual policies and plans to address with should we ever (hopefully) get to that point. As much as some people might lead you to believe that if the United States ceased to exist that imperialism and war would suddenly vanish, Russia and its history with its neighbors – the vast majority of which predates the founding of the United States – is a pretty good reason to point out why that’s bullshit.

As I said before, this situation is changing day to day, hour to hour. As of writing this, Russian tanks and vehicles are still heading towards Ukraine and there are (unconfirmed) reports of more skirmishes in Donbas – such as around Donetsk airport, the site of previous battles. For the time being, all we can do is remain aware of what’s going on, not jumping to any conclusions but also preparing ourselves for the unexpected and undesired. Simply put: “watch this space.”

While I’m a student of war and fascinated by it, I certainly don’t hope war happens. That’s not something anyone should wish for. As much as I think war is sometimes unavoidable or even necessary, I don’t think this is one of those cases. I don’t have the magic solution to what’s been going on in Ukraine, but I know an intensified war would only mean more suffering and death for everyone involved. Hopefully, the most likely course of action will play out and this will all amount to nothing. If not, we should hope that any conflict that emerges is short, does not escalate to highly destructive heights, and ends in a way maybe buys some stability. We’ll see.

Steve Brodner :: What's a Military for, Anywayzz??

* * * *

[THE REPUBLICAN ROAD TO CRAZYTOWN]

Wednesday was one of the wildest days on Capitol Hill, as FBI Director Chris Wray faced a conspiracy-addled House Judiciary Committee in a hearing that really did go “off the rails.”

Can you make sense of this:

Chair Jordan appeared on Fox News’s Hannity after the FBI oversight hearing that went off of the rails, where he said:

“A federal judge disagreed with what Christopher Wray testified to today and he did that decision on July 4th just eight days ago for goodness sake that's exactly what happened with uh with the decision the the uh when it came to the uh the the decision with um uh I drew a blank there so I apologize I got a huge echo in my ear and I can't I can't even hear.

“But but yeah that's exactly what what happened they uh they pre-bunked this story and Facebook specifically asked the FBI is the Hunter Biden story Russia misinformation and the FBI said no comment this is after they had the laptop for an entire year after they've been telling all the big tech companies get ready for a hack and dump operation it's coming and it's going to involve Hunter Biden and then it happens and they get that fundamental question no comment and this is from the foreign influence task force director the lead on that that foreign influence task force that Christopher Wray created.”

Can anyone who isn’t an avid viewer of Faux Snooze or a consumer of other conservative media understand what Jungle Gym was talking about?

Jordan speaks almost entirely now in the language of conspiracy theories; only the “extremely online” members of MAGA can make sense of the word salad that was tossed around.

The hearing, and Jordan’s appearance on Hannity, demonstrate that there is a bigger issue here:

The Republican Party is now running on insanity.

Jordan is pushing the issue of “FBI censorship” to legitimize the Hunter Biden laptop - which was mentioned so many times that Eric Swallwell used his five minutes to wonder if the GOP had another subject. According to witnesses, the Biden laptop has had its data manipulated so that Russian misinformation could be inserted into it. But all the tracks the GOP Crazy Train rolls on lead here, because the lies and falsehoods created and told by MAGA about Hunter Biden is the centerpiece of Trump’s 2024 campaign.

While the MAGA Republicans have spent nearly four years attempting so far unsuccessfully to legitimize The Hunter Biden Laptop and get their fantasies into corporate media, all the non-conservative media that have investigated the laptop have found the tale dubious and not credible.

Jordan and the rest of MAGA know they are running out of time. The 2024 campaign season begins this fall, and Congress always has an even shorter schedule than normally during election years. If Jordan and his co-conspirators can’t make anything stick to Joe Biden before January, their mission to restore Trump to the White House will have failed.

This is why hillbilly moron James Comer (R-Klueless) is now depending on fugitive Chinese spies to provide evidence against President Biden. The fact he does so is proof of their desperation born of their continuing failure to slime the president since taking control of the House this year.

Trump’s lies about having the 2020 election stolen from him has accelerated the slow decline of conservatism within the Republican Party over the past 40 years since the arrival of what became the Gingrich Revolution. Trump’s insanity has now turned the collective crazy of the Republican “kook’ fringe into the GOP’s DNA.

That we have one of our two political parties in such a collective psychosis is a dangerous spot for the nation to be in. The House Republicans know no bill on any topic that they pass will come out of the Democratic-majority Senate, so what they are passing are “messaging” bills to show the MAGA base that they are “fighting the good fight.” To much of the base, the fact that the antics the MAGA House Republicans are engaging in get a negative response from the Democrats is a plus - their representatives are “owning the libs.”

And so many of the far right “stars” have their own political and financial base, which means the GOP leadership in the House holds little to no sway over them. Thus, when Marjorie Traitor Goon’s amendment to strip all funds for support of Ukraine out of the “must-pass” NDAA was tossed by an overwhelming majority against her pro-Putin nuttiness, she blithely announced to Quiverin’ Qevin that this meant she would be unable to vote in favor of the amended NDAA. McCarthy can only afford to lose three more Republicans before he loses his majority to pass that bill (which will never come back from the Senate with any of the Kulturkampf amendments still in it), since Democrats have announced they will not vote in favor of the bill due to the amendment stripping the Pentagon of the ability to grant leave and travel assistance to service members who require abortion services in another state if they are unlucky enough to be stationed in one of the Republican-run states that have now abolished the right to an abortion in that state.

Regarding the NDAA, the Republicans managed to hang 70 far right amendments on the legislation in voting on Thursday, with every “moderate” “Biden district” “moderate” voting in lockstep with the nutballs the “moderates” claim to dislike.

Democrat Jim McGovern had this to say about today’s votes:

“This process has shown us the priorities of the Republican majority. Protecting the reputation of confederate leaders. Banning books because they want to rewrite history. Controlling women's bodies, overturning Roe vs. Wade wasn't enough. They want to ban abortion nationwide. They want to restrict a service members' ability to get travel expenses covered. Attacking LGBTQ+ service members. Cutting off aid to Ukraine in the middle of their fight against Putin. Stifling diversity and equity in the military. And shrugging off climate change which the Department of Defense says poses a direct threat to our national security. You can't make this stuff up, Mr. Speaker...

“The Speaker of the House needs to grow a spine. Not for his own reputation but the good of his country. This is a terrible, terrible process. These amendments are pathetic that have been made in order. They are offensive. It disrespects and diminishes this institution. It is sad to see this small group of extremists calling the shots here, but that is what is happening right now.

“Let me again remind everybody. In this rule, 70 Republican amendments, six bipartisan amendments, and four Democratic amendments. On what planet is that even considered reasonably fit? This is outrageous. A big chunk of the Democratic amendments, you may not agree with them, but we ought to have 10 minutes of debate and vote up or down. They say that this is about getting woke out of the military. They blocked my amendment to help homeless vets get rides to medical appointments. What the hell is woke about that? They blocked it because it was woke. I don't even know what they are thinking.”

Following the votes on amendments Thursday night, the three top House Democrats - Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar - issued a blistering statement outlining their opposition to the revised NDAA bill:

“House Republicans have turned what should be a meaningful investment in our men and women in uniform into an extreme and reckless legislative joyride. The bill undermines a woman’s freedom to seek abortion care, targets the rights of LGBTQ+ servicemembers and bans books that should otherwise be available to military families.”

Adam Smith, top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, and other subcommittee ranking members also released their own lengthy statement criticizing the legislation. These Democrats would normally be vocal supporters of any defense-related bill, but they’re not doing that now.

“The bill we passed out of committee sent a clear message to our allies and partners, global competitors, and the American people that democracy still works, and Congress can still function….

“That bill no longer exists. What was once an example of compromise and functioning government has become an ode to bigotry and ignorance.”

What clearly demonstrates where the Krazies are really at is the report that one of them lobbied a Republican “moderate” to vote for the Jackson anti-abortion amendment on the grounds that it would be stripped from the bill when it came back from the Senate. Performance is everything with these mendacious morons! All they wanted these amendment votes for was to get on Faux with their bullshit, and to con the morons who vote for them in their fundraising. Their cynicism and malicious acts are truly stunning.

The NDAA passed the House by a 219-210 vote Friday morning, but, with all the amendments, it is DOA on arrival in a Democratic-majority Senate.

House Republicans have shown this week what happens when the post-2020 election MAGA GOP is elevated into power.

It doesn't matter whether the politicians are driving the Republican base or the base is driving the behavior of elected Republicans. The result must be defeated and kept away from power. As many times as necessary until the radicalism is beaten out of the party or it ceases to exist in its contemporary form.

[TCinLA ::: Thats Another Fine Mess]

In light of the problems that have been encountered first by President Trump and now by President Biden over the handling of classified documents, many are wondering how the document classification system works.

The federal government has a fairly simple process for classifying documents. The originator of a document, usually a foreign policy or national security staff member, decides if it needs to be classified. In almost all cases this is a simple decision. Has its predecessor’s been classified? If so, classify. Each federal agency has a central repository that employees connect with when producing a classified document which gives the document a number so it can be identified later, and the actual originating component contacted.

Critics of the system have argued that too many documents are classified. However, that is an endemic problem because bureaucratically it is safer to classify than not.

The most sensitive documents are Top Secret Codeword documents. Almost every product of the National Security Agency is Top Secret because the Agency engages in intercepting and decoding sensitive communications of foreign countries and individuals.

Also highly classified are documents regarding operational activity of human intelligence collection (spies) by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the various military intelligence services. The raw intelligence produced by such means is usually classified SECRET, but occasionally a sensitive case will be TOP SECRET. In very sensitive cases, the originator will specify by name who can read the report.

TS (Top Secret) material must be stored in a SCIF office which stands for (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility). Only personnel with a TS clearance can enter the SCIF. When not in use, the room is locked. Presidents often have a temporary SCIF on their property or vacation homes. Presidents and VPs travel with a large communications team so they are always in constant contact with the Situation Room including when abroad.

Most State Department cables are SECRET. Some are CONFIDENTIAL, the lowest classification. Many of the most sensitive State documents are marked NODIS, which stands for No Distribution, meaning that they can only be read by a named individual or by selected positions.

A frequent classification is NOFORN, meaning the document cannot be shared with any foreign government or individual. In most cases this does not apply to the Five Eyes group: the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the US. NATO allies, Japan, South Korea, and others get considerable access as well.

Routine cables that deal with travel arrangements and personnel issues are often classified Limited Official Use for short periods of time so that once the travel is complete the cables are declassified.

The office of the President has access to all classified material. The Situation Room in the basement of the West Wing is the focal point for receiving reports from across the government and distributing them to appropriate people in the White House complex—usually electronically. Created by John F. Kennedy in 1961, the Situation Room is manned by CIA officers 24 hours every day. It is in constant communication with its counterparts like the National Military Command Center in the Pentagon and the Operations Center at the CIA.

The President and Vice President are cleared for all classified information, but often see only a small number of documents due to their intense schedules. The National Security Adviser usually selects the most important reports for the President.

When the CIA briefer delivers the PDB (President’s Daily Brief) each morning to the Oval Office or wherever the president is, the National Security Adviser’s office is responsible for retrieving it at the end of the day and securing it in their SCIF in the West Wing or in the Situation Room. If the President or VP write a question or comment in the book it goes back to Langley for a response. In my experience the President did not keep classified material, if he wanted to have it available then the Situation Room held onto it.

All classified documents are subject to periodic review for declassification. TS reports may take decades to be reviewed. Some will be reviewed and remain classified. Most will be declassified in part or entirely.

The President has the authority to declassify any document. In 1999, for example, President Bill Clinton used the conclusion of a TS report from the President’s Daily Brief prepared by the CIA in a meeting on July 4th with the Pakistani Prime Minister. He asked permission from the Deputy Director of the Agency just before he used it. In my eight years in the White House with four presidents, it was the only time I witnessed a president declassify a report to use with a foreign official.

That time, it helped avert a nuclear war.

meet kadokura. bored obsessive rich arms dealer and military contractor who also has ties with organized crime; sometime serial killer. friends with sagawa and andre richardson. drinker of absinthe. black monday affiliate. stalker. REALLY likes guns. 

this is mostly for @skygayzer whos writing kadokura into something, but i guess i might as well post it. please be warned that this is a horrible horrible man

appearance/mannerisms

average height or below, but taller than sato. does work out pretty regularly, im imagining like kickboxing or something, but hes nowhere near as fit or starved as he was in his mercenary days. basically an impressive body for a businessman and no better than that. good shoulders, fairly thin, no six pack in sight.

hes handsome and charming. a little bit lined up, especially smile lines and around his eyes. the vibes are like.... a 35-year-old, but whos been a lil toasted. a lil scorched and dried up.

smiles easily and often, expressive face and body.

Jaw Line Of The Ages

in the later timeline, probably does have a bit of grey hair but dyes it. hair slightly wavy but he keeps it pretty short

well dressed but not flashy. hes a businessman, you got your white shirt, your boring dark grey two-piece suit or whatever, some kinda tie, idk

he often fidgets with his arms and legs or stuff he has in his pockets (gun, screwdriver, cigarettes). but is also capable of sitting perfectly still and being or pretending to be relaxed. a bit of an oral fixation and will chew on objects or eat hard candy occasionally

basic life stuff/habits

lets start with the root issue: hes a total nihilist. he doesnt believe that anything matters and hes just out to have a good time as long as he can.

all of this does make him miserable on a fundamental level but hes Very skilled at pushing those feelings away and distracting himself with work and pleasure.

no fear of death, little self-preservation instinct. but also excited by competence so if hes like attacked or whatever hes not gonna just lie down and die.

lives in sapporo, i think he probably grew up there too. has a mansion outside the city. also has apartments in tokyo and osaka bc hes there often for work. also has a property in the county outside tokyo, in the forest, where he can Deal With Stuff Quietly (like probelmatic people etc.). fun fact thats where [y0 spoilers] nishiki brought kiryu in the car. that was the driveway to kadokura’s Dirty Tricks House

hes pretty good at operating on little sleep, but actually keeps a fairly regular and sane sleeping schedule. say 6-7 hours a night except when hes doing insane thing or working late for some deadline or important deal. may use substnces to supplement sleep where necessary.

drinks alcohol on the regular but in moderation. certified Absinthe EnjoyerTM but likes other stuff too, not too picky. does sometimes get insanely intoxicated but its usually on purpose. overall he has control over his drinking habits though they arent exactly healthy

does smoke, but not a huge amount. like once or twice a day, sometimes less.

at least in the yakuza (but some of his legit business partners too) people mostly know whats up with him but no one makes a big deal about it bc hes influential and important. sometimes you just gotta turn a blind eye to the fact that your arms supplier is a serial killer on the side. power structures be like that.

in general hes surprisingly easygoing, like he will laugh along if someone who knows him calls him a twisted cycle path or whatever.

that said, he can be sensitive about little things, like if someone teases him regarding some minor aspect of his appearance, or doesnt respect his reputation. BLACKLISTED.

work

hes like... in charge of a weapons manufacturing company and involved with arms trade stuff idk

what does he actualy do??? uhhhhhh he goes to meetings and talks on the phone and sometimes attends conferences and shows. travels a lot. schmoozes. i guess hes supposedly involved in development a little too, always happy to get his grubby little hands on prototype weapons

his business is legit but he has tons of ties to organized crime soooo idk. hes invested in having an appearance as an upright businessman though so he tries not to screw anyone over too obviously. surprisingly reliable partner..... most of the time.

also a surprisingly good boss. despite his bad traits, hes reasonable and accommodating to his employees (both in his company and the staff at his house). would never hurt or kill any of them. generous with pay and bonuses.

has no nishida figure, because he dismisses any personal assistant when they seem to start caring too much about him. spreads the work out so he never relies too much on just one person (that’s a recipe for disaster)

relationships

ties with both the tojo clan and omi alliance. espeicllay strong ties with the hokkaido yakuza and Kitakata bc thats where hes based but yknow. hokkaidos small fry.

also close ties with jingweon mafia

international arms dealer so sells to govts and stuff like that too

friends with sagawa

beef with nishiki’s parents & especially his dad

personally headhunted sato kiyoshi into becoming an assassin

beef with nishitani, idk why really

collects skilled killers

spare time/hobbies

really likes guns and shooting so will go to public or private shooting ranges when he gets the chance, to watch people at work and scope out talent or just keep an eye on who the good marksmen are. also has his own private shooting range which has a huge one-way mirror so he can watch without being seen.

he likes going to parties & clubbing etc., when hes in the mood, which is often but not all the time. doesnt like tripping out or doing any psychedelic drugs but otherwise is up to try pretty much anything.

will go to hostess clubs and stuff but not interested in dating or flings

why does he go then ??? not sure, maybe he gets a thrill out of acting normal with the girls but thinking about killing them idk. generally would not kill a hostess though—too much fuss.

honestly prefers to spend most of his time at home alone, but i guess he doesnt have a lot of spare time. will cook and learn languages.

insanely good at learning languages. probably at least fluent in english, mandarin, korean, swahili, vietnamese and french. speaks english with british pronunciation lol

probably cant handle the tones in cantonese loser lol

cooks mostly fancy western stuff like steaks or whatever

there have been periods where he had someone locked in his basement to torment when he felt like it. hasnt done that for awhile probably but the facilities are still there.

mostly only does recreational serial killing when hes in an extreme state of stress and doesnt have anything better to distract him.

what is better to distratct him? Stalking and fixating on an interesting person of course! Likes to sponsor/corrupt people he thinks have the potential to be excellent assassins.

fighting

hes not like a world class fighter or anything, but he is practised and brutal where necessary. soldier’s training rather than fancier martial arts.

really good marksman with a handgun. also good with machine guns. not a great sniper, but competent enough.

i think he uses one of those big brutal looking assisted-open knifes.

backstory

what was his childhood like? how did he end up so rich and powerful?? we just dont know and good luck getting him to talk about it. he wont even tell ME.

but during the mid-late 1960s at least he was a mercenary and did war crimes in the congo. probably involved in a few other conflicts closer to home but idk the details. i only put him in the congo because he worked with Roland and Van Owen tbh

I dont know if he was already rich at that point & was just mercing for fun & experience or if he hadnt yet had material succes. It Is A Mystery.

kadokura might actually be a fake name.

anway if you read all this thanks i guess! kadokura is OPEN-SOURCE to my comrades and if you ever want to name drop him in anything or straight up use him as a character, you can do that, including if you want to contradict any of the stuff i wrote here. he contains multitudes. just tag me or whatever so i can see !!! also lemme know if you have an OC who seems like they would interact with him and i can try to at least do a name-drop somewhere >:)

oh yea and ifyou want to ur allowed to kill him too, he deserves it <3

On mobilization...

Seven months into Putin's war, and the Russian propaganda machine is cracking. The 1st Guard's Tank Army, having been routed for the second time, this time in Kharkiv and around Izyim, has demonstrated that both the military Putin spent two decades building and his so-called 'special military operation' is a complete failure.

As Kyiv captured several brigades' worth of equipment from former Russian positions that looked like garbage yards, Russian pundits and milbloggers are demanding answers, publicly realizing the war is not going according to plan or schedule. The pro-russian audience was elated as Russia increased it's strikes on critical civilian infrastructure in response.

Putin, finally publically admitting that Russia's 'professional' military is unable to defeat a former Soviet satellite, announced partial mobilization. While Shoigu was quick to downplay any panic, promising mobilization measures would only affect a fraction of Russia's reservists, it's clear that at this point 'partial mobilization' means full mobilization, only on a slower scale. Russia will not announce whenever a new batch of reservists are needed; they intend to keep going until they reach whatever Russia believes to be an acceptable end goal. In response, Russian stock markets began crashing and flights out of the country were quickly sold out, coupled with massive traffic jams on Russia's borders.

Seeing Russian struggles in logistics and equipment so far, it's difficult to see how mobilization would answer Russia's problems. It remains to be seen what equipment Russia actually even has left. Reeking of desperation, Russia is going through with it's sham referendums, publically intending to unilaterally annex occupied territories. Russian escalation includes Putin's nuclear bluff. The West, of course, does not intend to ever respect Russian control within Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.

The West has branded the war as Putin's war, but the uncomfortable truth is that the war still had significant support from the Russian public. The Russian people were apathetic to the war crimes committed, so long as it was prisoners and contractors sent to Ukraine instead of their children. Now, to downplay the humiliation of being forced to call up its reservists, the Kremlin claims Russia is not fighting Ukraine, but the West and NATO.

Time will tell how motivated Russians are to die for a needless war. It was poorly motivated and lead conscripts who partially enabled Kyiv's breakthrough in Kharkiv oblast. With Putin's timing coinciding with Ukraine's upcoming mud season and winter months, the reservists are in for a miserable time. The fact that Ukraine was able to defeat & stall Russia's active-duty military bodes poorly for poorly trained reservists forced to fight in a war they have no business being in. The best chance of survival for Russian draftees is either immediately leaving the country or, if drafted, desertion & surrender to the Ukrainians.

'Good order makes men bold and confusion, cowards.'

6080Khz 0258 4 APR 2024 - VOICE OF AMERICA (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA) in ENGLISH from MOPENG HILL. SINPO = 55333. English, dead carrier, @0259z w/Yankee Doodle int fb news anchored by Richard Greene @0300z. A powerful 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck Taiwan's eastern coast near Hualien County on Wednesday morning, killing nine people and injuring more than 900. Taiwan's biggest earthquake in at least 25 years is likely to tighten the supply of tech components such as display panels and semiconductors as manufacturers in the global tech powerhouse restore operations at affected facilities. The bodies of six foreign aid workers killed in an Israeli airstrike were moved Wednesday to Egypt for repatriation to their homelands, while Israel faced wide condemnation for their deaths. A total of seven staff members of the U.S.-based food charity World Central Kitchen were killed in the late Monday airstrike that United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said was “unconscionable” and "an inevitable result of the way the war is being conducted.” U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are scheduled to speak Thursday, according to a U.S. official familiar with planning for the call. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday on how to bolster the alliance’s long-term military support for Ukraine. The United States will host a NATO summit in Washington from July 9 to July 11. Blinken discussed priorities for the meeting with his counterpart as the alliance celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. Uganda's constitutional court has declined to annul or grant a permanent injunction against the enforcement of the country’s anti-gay law. In their ruling Wednesday, the judges said the law does infringe on some fundamental human rights. Lawyers representing members of Uganda's LGBT community described the ruling as retrogressive. A 12-year-old suspected of shooting and killing a classmate and wounding two girls at a school in Finland said he had been motivated by bullying, police said Wednesday. Flags flew at half-staff as the northern European country observed a day of mourning a day after the boy opened fire in a classroom in Vantaa. Police also said that the young suspect had been a student at the school only since the beginning of the year. The police opened an investigation into murder and attempted murder but said the suspect has been handed over to social services as he could not be held in police custody because of his age. A New York judge on Wednesday denied Donald Trump's bid to delay his April 15 trial on charges stemming from hush money paid to a porn star until the U.S. Supreme Court reviews claim to presidential immunity in a separate criminal case. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear on April 25 the former U.S. president's arguments that he is immune from federal prosecution for trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat to President Joe Biden. In a court ruling on Wednesday, Merchan said Trump had waited too long to raise the issue. @0305z “Daybreak Africa” anchored by male announcer (w/African accent). MLA 30 amplified loop (powered w/8 AA rechargeable batteries ~10.8vdc), Et��n e1XM. 100kW, beamAz 350°, bearing 84°. Received at Plymouth, MN, United States, 14087KM from transmitter at Mopeng Hill. Local time: 2158.

End Of An Era: A-10C Thunderbolt II Demo Team Announces Final Airshow Season

The A-10 Demo Team has just announced their farewell tour 2024.

David Cenciotti

A-10 Demo Team Farewell Tour 2024

The U.S. Air Force A-10C Thunderbolt II demonstration team is the unit in charge of highlighting the A-10C’s capabilities during airshows across the United States and to recruit, retain and inspire the next generation of Airmen. The team will perform its duty for one last season this year: in fact, as announced on social media, 2024 is going to mark the final airshow season for the Warthog demo.

The farewell tour does not come unexpected though: last month, the 355th Wing at Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona, where the Demo team is based, begun divesting its fleet of A-10 aircraft after nearly 50 years.

The first model of the aircraft to arrive at Davis-Monthan was an A-10A on March 2, 1976. This model was assigned to the 355th Tactical Fighter Wing that arrived here in 1971 and replaced the Vought A-7D Corsair flown by the 355th TFW. The 355th TFW was later reclassified as the 355th Tactical Fighter Training Wing, prompting the 354th, 357th, and 358th Fighter squadrons to train U.S. Air Force Pilots on the A-10A aircraft.

A-10 Demo Team

The heritage paint scheme of the A-10C Demo Team, introduced for 2023 season.

The U.S. Air Force has plans to divest the entire fleet of A-10 aircraft within the next 3-5 years, when the iconic jet will be replaced by the F-35.

“The A-10 has been the symbol of Davis-Monthan Air Force Base for many years, and it will continue to be a symbol for the Airmen of DM, a symbol of their commitment, excellence and service,” said U.S. Air Force Col. Scott Mills, 355th Wing commander and A-10 pilot in a public statement. “For now, we’re divesting a single squadron during the summer-fall timeframe of 2024.”

Coinciding with the divestment, Davis-Monthan plans to expand its Rescue Footprint, which may lead to additional utility of the HC-130 aircraft and the HH-60W helicopter. Airframes expected to arrive from the Air Force Special Operations Command include the MC-130 and OA-1K.

A-10 Demo pilot

Capt Lindsay “MAD” Johnson, Demo Team Commander, poses in front of her aircraft.

“From an Ops personnel standpoint, this divestment arguably allows a more expeditious stand-up of the F-35, even as that program continues to struggle with a variety of delays,” said U.S. Air Force Col. Razvan Radoescu, 355th Operations Group commander.

The aircraft 82-648 was the first to be retired from service at Davis-Monthan on Feb. 6, 2024, and transited from the 354th Fighter Squadron to the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group for final maintenance procedures and display preparation for the Davis-Monthan where hundreds of retired Aircraft are stored.

“There will always be a job for maintainers; it may not be on the A-10, but the Air Force needs maintainers to sustain airpower,” said U.S. Air Force Col. Clarence McRae, 355th Maintenance Group commander, “Perhaps the biggest draw of future maintainers will be in the F-35 community. Airplanes are still going to break, and we are still going to fix them.”

One of the memes that you could find online during the early days of the Ukrainian invasion by Russia.

Anyway, there’s still time to attend an airshow and watch the A-10 Demo Team, commanded by Capt Johnson, an Instructor Pilot and Flight Commander assigned to the 357th Fighter Squadron, Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona and previously served also in Texas and Korea, at her second season as the commander of the team.

Here’s the schedule.

About David Cenciotti

David Cenciotti is a journalist based in Rome, Italy. He is the Founder and Editor of “The Aviationist”, one of the world’s most famous and read military aviation blogs. Since 1996, he has written for major worldwide magazines, including Air Forces Monthly, Combat Aircraft, and many others, covering aviation, defense, war, industry, intelligence, crime and cyberwar. He has reported from the U.S., Europe, Australia and Syria, and flown several combat planes with different air forces. He is a former 2nd Lt. of the Italian Air Force, a private pilot and a graduate in Computer Engineering. He has written five books and contributed to many more ones.

@Aviationist via X

Part II, Day 38

Interviews: 5 x Clinton x 5.

I had five interviews this week, one on each day. I didn’t plan it that way; it’s just how the universe (and schedules) aligned. A nice way to cap a week like that is with a Thelonious Monk record, a puzzle, and some decaf green tea.

Monk’s record, like so many things he did, was clever on a few levels. It’s five tunes, all written by the man himself, performed by a group of five musicians. 5 x Monk x 5.

The 5 x 5 part has a history beyond this jazz record, extending into the radiotelegraph world. After telegraph communications moved from wired to wireless, operators required confirmation of the quality of an incoming transmission to ensure accuracy.

The person receiving a transmission would send back a report with a rating of both the readability and signal strength. The scale has evolved since its first use in the 1910s, but looked like this in 1929:

Readability responses: R1 - Unreadable R2 - Poor but readable—send each character twice R3 - Fair—readable at slow speed, send code twice R4 - Good—readable at moderate speed R5 - Easily readable

Strength of signals responses: K1 - Very weak—hardly audible K2 - Moderately weak K3 - Medium strength K4 - Moderately strong K5 - Strong

(Via Wikipedia, of course.)

And so, 5 x 5 means both easily readable and strong. You may have heard of it as “loud and clear.” Something to aspire to, as a content designer, I’d say!

The hip language of the be-bop jazz players probably included this slang, likely adopted from young men returning from the military, post-WWII.

How does that relate to my week? Five interviews in five days. I certainly hope that I came across as 5 x 5, loud and clear. (Not that I’m shouting in these interviews. Could you imagine?)

One interview each day may not seem like much from the outside. What could it take, 45 minutes each? Yes, that’s the time that my camera was on, the transmission going out 5 x 5. But there’s so much more to an interview than the time spent on the Zoom or Google Meet.

I’ve conducted many, many interviews from the other side of the table (or camera), so I have a feel for common questions and what good answers should include. And it’s different for each role and at each stage in the interview process. 

My prep includes intensive review of the job description, copying it into a Google Doc to mark up, highlight, and dissect. I’ll set up another doc with anticipated questions I may receive and a list of questions I want to know about that role.

If it’s my first interview, I want to know the company history. I’m interested in how long the interviewer has worked there, so I’ll view their LinkedIn profile. You know, gathering context like a good content designer always does. 

And then I’m ready to deliver my best self 5 x 5, loud and clear.

(October 29, 2023 / JNS) Hamas is preventing hundreds of American citizens from leaving the Gaza Strip, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan revealed to CBS on Sunday, ahead of a scheduled call between President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“The challenge right now … is that the Egyptians are prepared to let Americans and other foreign nationals out of Gaza. The Israelis have no issue with that. But Hamas is preventing their departure and making a series of demands,” Sullivan told CBS’s “Face the Nation” program.

“We’re trying to work through that to create a circumstance where all of the Americans who are in Gaza are able to get out. It is a priority for the president. He has no higher priority than their safe passage out,” he added.

Some 500 to 600 U.S. citizens are believed to be stuck in the Hamas-controlled enclave, Washington previously confirmed. Sullivan did not elaborate on the demands the terrorist group was making to permit their departure.

In a separate interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Sullivan said Biden would speak again with Netanyahu on Sunday and stress the need for the Israeli army “to make every possible effort to distinguish between terrorists and Palestinian civilians during the ground operation in Gaza.”

Hamas’s use of human shields “creates an added burden for Israel but does not lessen Israel’s responsibility under international law to distinguish between terrorists and civilians and to protect the lives of innocent people,” claimed the Biden administration official.

The U.S. has been asking Jerusalem “hard questions” about “Israeli military objectives and the steps they have taken and intend to take to achieve those objectives,” added Sullivan.

“We’ve asked them hard questions, the same hard questions that we would ask ourselves if we were seeking to conduct an operation to take out a terrorist threat,” he continued. “We pressed them on questions like objectives and matching means to objectives, about both tactical and strategic issues associated with this operation.”

The Israel Defense Forces continues to expand its ground operations in the Strip.

Soldiers of the 52nd “The Breachers” Battalion, part of the Armored Corps’ 401st “Iron Tracks” Brigade, who entered the northern Gaza Strip on Saturday, raised the Israeli flag on one of the buildings there, according to video documentation shared online.

A soldier recording his comrades raising the flag can be heard in the video saying that three weeks after the Oct. 7 massacre of Israelis by Hamas terrorists, troops “lift the flag of Israel in the heart of Gaza, along the beach. We will not forget, we will not forgive and we will not stop until victory.”

Israel launched “Operation Swords of Iron” on Oct. 7 after Hamas invaded southern Israel, murdering at least 1,400 people, wounding more than 5,000 and taking over 200 hostages back to Gaza. According to the IDF, the families of 230 people have been notified that their loved ones are being held by Hamas.

After Sisi's speech and the launch of the red line, Israel activates the war code and reveals a massacre threatening the Egyptian border

Updates on the Al-Aqsa Flood operation presented in this episode of Samri Channel. The beginning of the official launch of the humanitarian truce between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas, which is scheduled to continue for 4 days, during which hostages held in the Gaza Strip will be released in exchange for Palestinian detainees. This "humanitarian truce", which was mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, came on the forty-ninth day of the war between Israel and Hamas. 50 hostages will be released in exchange for 150 Palestinian detainees in batches during the duration of the truce.

Aid flowing to the besieged Gaza Strip will also increase during the first truce since the beginning of the war that has been ongoing for nearly 7 weeks. The Israeli army escalated its targeting across the Strip a few hours before a temporary truce took effect in the Gaza Strip. Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip, Nuseirat in the centre, and Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south witnessed intense bombardment, resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries, in addition to targeting several hospitals.

Meanwhile, on Friday, Israeli army spokesman Avichai Adraee sent a message to the residents of the Gaza Strip, saying: “The war is not over yet. The suspension of fire for humanitarian purposes comes temporarily.” The Israeli army spokesman pointed out that "the northern Gaza Strip area is a dangerous war zone and it is forbidden to move around it." He added: "For your safety, you must remain in the humanitarian zone in the south of the Strip." He continued: "It is only possible to move from the north of the Gaza Strip to the south via the Salah al-Din Road. The movement of residents from the south of the Gaza Strip to its north will not be allowed in any way."

In a parallel context, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi stressed that the forced displacement of Palestinians is a red line that Egypt does not accept and will not allow. He added in his speech at the “Long Live Egypt Conference” in Cairo Stadium, that if the Palestinians leave their lands, they will not return to them again, stressing that the Arab region is facing a grave crisis in addition to the threats it has been suffering from for decades, declaring that the Palestinian issue is facing an extremely dangerous and sensitive curve. In light of an uncalculated and inhumane escalation. Al-Sisi denounced the use of "the approach of collective punishment and committing massacres as a means of imposing a reality on the ground that leads to the liquidation of the Palestinian cause, the displacement of the Palestinian people, and the seizure of the land."

He also stressed that Egypt seeks to bring in the largest amounts of aid to alleviate the suffering of more than two million Palestinians under siege, stressing Egypt's keenness to carry out its responsibilities towards the Palestinians. He said that the Rafah crossing has never been closed and will not be closed to humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip. He added, "All Egyptians participated to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza, stressing that the work started by the volunteers is not finished, especially since there are 2.3 million Palestinian citizens under siege and in need of all relief materials and humanitarian aid, in light of the cuts in water, fuel, food, and medical supplies."

Finally, the Israeli military pilot, Nof Erez, said that it is possible that the Israeli army has implemented the “Hannibal Protocol,” which allows the killing of Israelis, during its response to the attack launched by the “Hamas” movement and the Palestinian resistance factions on October 7, 2023, against settlements. In the Gaza Strip.

“Hannibal” is a controversial military protocol, the use of which has been attributed to the Israeli army since its official adoption in 2006, and allows the lives of captured soldiers to be risked. It returned to the forefront again after Palestinian factions in Gaza captured dozens of Israeli soldiers, including high-ranking military personnel, in Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” on July 7. October 2023.

In a statement to the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz", the pilot, Lieutenant Colonel Erez, indicated the possibility of his country's forces that intervened to deal with the Hamas attack implementing the "Hannibal Protocol", which the Israeli army uses to prevent the capture of its soldiers, even if it leads to their killing. Erez said that "it is not known whether the warplanes and drones fired on the hostages when responding to the attack by Hamas," but added: "It appears that the Hannibal Protocol was implemented at some point" on October 7. Erez explained, "When a situation of hostage-taking is discovered, this requires 'Hannibal', knowing that the Hannibal maneuvers that we conducted over the past twenty years were limited to one vehicle carrying hostages, but what we saw (October 7) is considered a large-scale Hannibal."

 Israeli media report that Lieutenant Colonel Erez was dismissed on October 31, 2023, after criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Israeli army announced that Erez was dismissed after expressing his opinion on “political issues” while on active duty. Erez's statements come after a Haaretz report showed, on Saturday, November 18, 2023, that an Israeli military helicopter opened fire on "Palestinian militants" and Israelis participating in a party organized near Kibbutz "Ra'im" on the outskirts of the Gaza Strip on October 7 last year.

#Egypt #Palestine #Gaza