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atopvisenyashill · 3 months

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why do you think jonsa is happening tho? jonerys is different bc they are going to be enemies, but i don’t see what jonsa does for the story

so let me first lay out roughly what i think is going to happen should jonsa become canon. I personally love going down meta and graphic spirals, so I'm including links to other people’s theories/explanations/graphics of events too - also I would like to shout out @istumpysk because half these metas and gifsets were stuff I found on their blog initially, and also was the one who really convinced me that jonsa is less of a crackship and more of a contender for an actual canon theory, and from there i really found my niche in this fandom. specifically this meta about jon being the mummer's dragon is what pulled me out of my "we're never getting twow and if we do it's just gonna be that stupid dany has jon's magical baby while tyrion watches, then they all die theory" slump and lit my brain on fire again. let's goooo:

The Ashford Tourney Theory - Something Shady goes down at the tourney Petyr has planned that requires Sansa to make a quick getaway, and likely causes her to run into Brienne while fleeing. This theory for me is about hinting at Sansa's romantic future, allies, and how she's getting the hell out of the Vale: both the dark haired, Not Targ Looking Targ Prince that is the son of A Great Prince That Never Was being her romantic endgame but also it's about Brienne (/Dunk) getting her the hell out of there and becoming Sansa's number one ally and protector (with Sansa's number two being Bronze Yohn!! But he's not fleeing with her - if he helps her get out of the Vale, it'll be to cause a distraction or a fight so Sansa can slip away unnoticed. Bronze Yohn is coming with the knights of the Vale later to help defend his girl!).

The Girl In Grey - Out of options on where to go, Sansa & Brienne makes a long, fast, and dangerous trek to the only family she knows is still alive: Jon Snow at the Wall. No, I don't think Alys Karstark is the girl in grey on a dying horse; I think she's a red herring, the same as the scene where Sweetrobin destroys the snow castle, and that the real girl in grey (who slays the savage giant) is Sansa. Melisandre says that she sees "Jon's sister" but doesn't specify more than that, or how she knows it's Jon's sister, even - why would she assume Alys is Jon's sister and not some random Northern girl? Why was she so sure that it was his sister? It's because Alys isn't the girl in grey, it's Sansa, her horse dying because she's traveled halfway across the continent with Brienne and Pod, desperately trying to keep ahead of the dozens of people hunting her down.

The Blood of Winterfell - Sansa and Jon will reclaim winterfell together. This one is similar to above; just like Alys was a red herring, the scene where Sansa rebuilds the castle has a lot of foreshadowing (imo) but that isn't the moment in the prophecy Arya hears. The Savage Giant is Littlefinger, the castle of snow is Winterfell, and Sansa is going to liberate her home alongside Jon and what's left of the Northern lords.

Stone and Snow Remains - THIS is where Sansa and Jon will fall in love while fighting for the North. This is also the part where you lose a lot of people, because they think the evidence is real weak sauce but like, I also think the Jonerys "evidence" is weak af too (and no wonder, we have at minimum 2k pages left to get through!!). There's several believed foreshadowing points to this one, bare with me for this weird ass formatting because I can't do sub bullet points on tumblr:

1. Sansa's linking of snow with love and affection - "drifting snowflakes brushed her face as light as lover’s kisses, and melted on her cheeks...She could feel the snow on her lashes, taste it on her lips. It was the taste of Winterfell. The taste of innocence. The taste of dreams." along with her snow maiden and snow knight.

2. Bael the Bard and the Rose of Winterfell - the chapter where Sansa gets her period for the first time, Cersei refers to it as “flowering” a dozen times, linking being a maiden (a young girl, not quite of age or just barely of age) to flowers and several people refer to sex as ~plucking. Also notice the one who stole her from KL is Lord BAELish.

3. Aemon the Dragonknight & Queen Naerys - Sansa compares herself to Naerys, Joffrey to Aegon, and wishes for an Aemon, among the many similarities between her life and Naerys'. Jon not only calls himself Aemon, he has a deep connection with a different Aemon Targaryen. And if you’re thinking “Sansa isn’t Naerys, X is Naerys” I would remind you that Sansa as a character existed first, George purposefully had her compare herself to Naerys, and parallels don't belong to just one character.

4. Jenny of Oldstones and The Prince of Dragonflies - there's honestly a lot of parallels between them but like the Aemon/Naerys parallel, the Jenny/Duncan one stands out to me.

5. Janos Slynt - I mean. Iconic. This was the scene that made me first think about what their relationship could be in the future and there’s a reason Jonsas fixate on it. It’s about Sansa being desperate for a hero and the hero she dreamed about being Jon the whole time. 6. Societal Alienation - There's the bastard parallels here, the "it would be so sweet to see him again", the "Winterfell belongs to my sister, Sansa." It's about how Jon, through circumstances of his birth, finds himself alienated from the rest of society and reconnects with his prim and proper sister Sansa, who finds herself alienated from the rest of society as well but for vastly different reasons.

Robb’s Will - Howland is going to show up in the North, along with Maege and Galbert, with some WILD news about why Jon can’t rule Winterfell. There’s a lot of contention around this. Bran probably shows up around this time too, and Arya gets to the Riverlands to discover Lady Stoneheart and give her the gift of mercy. This is where all the inheritance stuff is going to happen and I have no idea how it's going to go down besides it's going to be messy as all fuck.

The Pact Of Ice And Fire - Jon & Sansa get secret married bc they’re in love, not siblings, & jon is the only man she trusts not to steal her claim. This isn't the only possible foreshadowing instance of a marriage either - some believe the Sandor/Sansa scene during the Battle of the Blackwater is foreshadowing as well (personally I feel that's a bit of a stretch but I wanted to include it anyway).

Jon As An Envoy - I talked about this in my "what's Jon's ending" a little but I believe Jon will act as an envoy for either Sansa or Bran to Aegon VI, essentially playing out a similar story that he does in the show with Daenerys. By which I mean, Jon is not the King because the ruler themselves do not go as an envoy, that’s stupid and dangerous, but he goes as an ambassador for Sansa or Bran, to treat with a new claimant to the Iron Throne that is gaining support - Aegon VI & Jon Connington. They will probably clash, Jon will probably have yet another identity crisis, there had BETTER be gay incest subtext, then Aegon dies, and Jon has his sixth quarter life crisis in a row.

“King” of the Gift - again, something I touched on in my Jon meta is that I think he’s going to have a hand in resettling the Gift. Personally, I think it's likely that Jon leaves to protect the claims of his siblings (see: Duncan and Jenny) and goes to the Gift to help resettle it to keep out of the way. This ending is typically referred to as the "bael the bard" ending but i like to think of it as the "brandon's gift" ending instead - though he is not physically with his family, Jon feels fulfilled having confirmed his family loves him through reclaiming Winterfell and marrying Sansa, being reunited with Arya, and being given the Gift by Bran. Sansa claims her children were fathered by a wolf.

So…what does all this do for the story?

Well, in my opinion, several things.

I think the main barrier here is that most people in the greater fandom describe Sansa's story as ~growing past childish wants~ and Jon's as ~rejecting love~ and I do not agree with either of those takes even a little bit. This is where (imo) the dividing line between Jonsas and the rest of the fandom is. I don’t think the answer to Sansa’s question “will anyone ever marry me for love” is going to be “nah" - that's not just a sad story to me (wanting to be married isn't childish! craving intimacy and understanding isn't childish! it's also not wrong for a child to be childish!), I think the idea that Sansa (or Jon) will not find another love just doesn't line up with how George approaches his story. Who Sansa's husband will be has been such a big question, and her story is so heavy into the more romantic tropes like courtly love and chivalry and the line between politics and love and identity, that the question of Sansa's hand in marriage will be plot relevant. I also think it's kinda naive of people to pretend like George isn't very interested in the sexual dynamics of the characters he writes about (yeah, sure, no woman needs a man but "needing a man" is not what this is about. look at everything this man wrote in F&B and tell me he is going to write a female character that longs for sex and desire and doesn't get it!).

After AGOT, nearly every time Sansa thinks about marriage involves her longing for love but believing she will never get it because a man will only ever love her for her claim. Giving her a man - like Jon - who not only will not steal her claim and in fact has defended it twice over already, who will love her for who she is and not what she can give him, is a really important aspect of her story in my opinion.

As for Jon, I am even more firmly against the opinion that his story is about rejecting love; Jon’s story is about wanting to be a good man, to measure up to his father ~despite~ his bastard blood. When Aemon asks if Ned would choose honor over love and Jon stubbornly says yes, Jon is wrong and it’s important to not forget that. Ned has never once in his entire life chosen honor over love; he chooses his daughter’s life over his honor, he chooses his sister & her son’s life over honor, he chooses Arya & Nymeria over honor, and on and on!!! Ned chooses love at almost turn but none of his children know that just yet - look at Robb choosing Jeyne’s honor over his own and how upset he is at the idea that Ned would be disappointed despite the fact that Ned would have understand Robb’s decision! Jon's whole arc is tied up in realizing that it is not wrong or dirty to feel and choose love, passion, and desire and if he never has another romantic arc again, I think you lose the second part of that lesson which is "you are responsible for how you act when you feel love but that doesn't mean that simply choosing love makes you a bad person."

There's also the fact that George has talked a lot about "who lives, who dies, who gets married" and yet we have not one marriage at the end of the show AND there's not a lot of guesses at what "who gets married" means besides Jon/erys (and even if Jonsa doesn't happen, I simply do not see Jon/erys happening. they are not similar enough, they will not be in the same space for long enough, and they are on wildlly different trajectories for their story, they are not getting married let alone having sex). I think Jonsa fits that bill very well.

These various theories - from Sansa being queen, Jon living in exile, The Ashford Tourney Theory, the secret marriage, every one of them - are ideas and themes that I have really been thinking about for about 12 years now. I think Jon and Sansa's relationship could fit with the themes in their stories, the overarching themes in the books, and my own personal opinions. I think it gives George a great opportunity to delve into the courtly love aspects he enjoys so much, as well as delve into inheritance, legacy, legitimacy, honor, incest (yes, that too), and above all, what George himself has said the whole series is about - love. The human heart in conflict with itself is what I think Jon and Sansa as a romantic couple does for the series.

#okay if i don't post this now it's going to continue to sit in my drafts while i make minor edits oh my god #anyways behold my jonsa manifesto with sources. i'm gonna go kms now bye #jonsa meta #jonsa #jon snow #actually jonsa #sansa stark #getting on my soap box #stone and snow remains #twow speculation #ados speculation #asks #anons #also stumpy's post being reblogged to asoiafuni just so people could dogpile her. is exactly why i stopped engaging with asoiaf fandom #after the show ended because it was just these obnoxious ass people dogpiling on fans with theories they didn't like over and over #annoying and not conducive to theory and analyzing!!#i hope i'm not missing some important meta here don't tell me if i am i'll die

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asongofstarkandtargaryen · 28 days

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Remember when at the end of AGOT Sansa was about to push Joffrey to his death but she was stopped the last moment by Sandor. At the end of TWOW she will push Littlefinger through the Moon Door and this time no one will be there to stop her. Martin told me himself.

#sansa stark #twow speculation #house stark #valyrianscrolls

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goodqueenaly · 26 days

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How do you think Melisandre will react when she discovers that Stannis isn't actually Azor Ahai reborn? What about the Queen's Men?

Perhaps the better question to ask - although it might amount to about the same thing - is what Melisandre and the Queen’s men (not to mention Selyse herself, and Shireen) will do as TWOW opens - namely, in light of both the bombshell news (or purported news) from the pink letter that Stannis is (again, supposedly) dead, as well as the assassination of Jon. If, as Ramsay’s letter to Jon so bluntly asserted, Ramsay had slain Stannis after seven days of battle, then the hopes of both Melisandre and the Queen’s men might seem, perhaps to use an apt turn of phrase, snuffed out: Stannis obviously could not be the hero chosen by R’hllor to save the world if he was already dead, and at the hands of so mundane and temporal an enemy as Roose Bolton’s bastard son. That Stannis isn’t in fact dead, as I very much believe is the case, does not really matter; so far as anyone at the Wall knows, the would-be apocalyptic champion of the Lord of Light is currently lying dead in the snows around Winterfell.

Melisandre, in her sole chapter, had already faced the trouble of vague portentous guidance on Stannis as Azor Ahai. More to the point, Melisandre had also already received at least some indication via her fiery visions that the identity of Azor Ahai was indisputably linked to Jon Snow. Consequently, I think she may realize or believe she now understands, as TWOW opens, that she had been focusing on the wrong person as Azor Ahai. Stannis was clearly not “the Lord’s chosen, the warrior of fire”, as she put it to Davos, since the apocalypse was still nigh; clearly, what R’hllor was trying to tell her was that the person to look for was Jon. Now, the fact that Jon had also recently been killed may not seem as big a stumbling block to Melisandre as it might objectively, in terms of the identity of a universal savior; Melisandre may not have ever brought anyone back from the dead (so far as we know), but as Thoros and Moqorro demonstrate, the ability of R’hllor’s priests (and presumably priestesses) to defy even death in the name of their god is a substantial power indeed. I have a feeling Melisandre is going to move quickly to return Jon to the land of the living via her fire magic (with the unconscious bonus, perhaps, of having Jon’s “soul” still be preserved in his wolf in the interim).

As far as the queen’s men go, the death of Stannis may seem more like a political tragedy than a cosmic one. The true devotion of the queen’s men to R’hllor is a mixed bag: some truly converts to the new religion (like young Devan Seaworth), some devoted only for the cruelty the exercise of that religion allows (like Clayton Suggs), and some converts only in name (like the late Alester Florent). However, whether or not any given pro-Stannis aristocrat at the Wall feels a sense of cosmological devastation at the news of Stannis’ (supposed) death, all of them would know that their political prospects were now far from certain. In the patriarchal, misogynistic world of Westerosi politics generally, a preteen girl might have a very hard time asserting herself as queen in her own right; as a result, the queen’s men at the Wall might be pretty uncertain about what to do without the strong male warrior-king figure of Stannis behind whom they could rally.

And of course, that’s without the immediate problems at the Wall overtaking them all as well. Jon’s assassination was the acme of a chaotic day at the Wall: not only had Jon dropped his bombshell news regarding the letter from Ramsay, his planned march on Winterfell, and the planned mission to Hardhome, but Ser Patrek had taken the opportunity to challenge Wun Wun the giant to seize Val - which ended about as much as anyone might have expected. With Jon murdered out in the open, the Wall is going to be, to put it bluntly, a mess: anti-Jon conspirators with his blood quite literally still on their hands, pro-Jon brothers potentially retaliating against those conspirators, queen’s men rushing about to rescue and/or avenge Ser Patrek from Wun Wun, free folk realizing that their pseudo-leader at the Wall is now dead. Any questions of Stannis’ death, and the apparent failure of him to be Azor Ahai, may be subsumed in something like a miniature civil war breaking out at the Wall, and them being caught in it.

#asoiaf meta #speculation #TWOW #melisandre

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straydaddy · 1 month

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Stunbat Lore!

@bluedaddysgirl and I have been designing these creatures that accompany their Txepìva na'vi. Here is our earlier thread on 'viperhounds', domesticated and extremely diverse 'dogs' of these volcanic plains dwelling clans!

...And here is @bluedaddysgirl's original thread on our second creature, the Stunbat!

I happened to make new edits and whole illustrations when I was re-formatting the contents of the original Stunbat posts for Twitter/X, so here's an updated version of the Stunbat thread!

Link to the Twitter thread; https://x.com/knarme/status/1773035137699135920?s=20

Credits; The Txepìva na'vi, their volcanic plains biome, the illustrations on the 'last page' & and all the text is by @bluedaddysgirl

The basket illustrations and Stunbat lore are collaborations between myself @straydaddy and @bluedaddysgirl.

The designs of the Stunbats and Viperhounds and the rest of the illustrations are by me, @straydaddy

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laurellerual · 2 months

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Do you think adult Arya would grow her hair out or keep it short?? I can see her doing both TBH

My art speaks for me. I think she would grow her hair out.

Arya is forced to have her hair cut numerous times during the course of the story. The first to do it is Yoren, and it's a traumatic experience where she thinks he's going to kill her. Then it happens again in Harrenhal where she is shorn like an animal because of fleas. Then it's the Hound's turn after the red weddings and then the House of black and white. Every time the hair is cut it is because of someone else and corresponds to an external change, a violation, a loss of identity.

The only time we see her shave herself is at the beginning of the Mercy chapter, after she accepted her new role as "no one" (at least in words because if you've read the chapter you know how it ends). So once again a loss of identity, self-imposed this time.

For me, an Arya who can finally afford to let her hair grow is an Arya who is once again free to bear her name and not have to give up any part of herself, and this is what I hope for her future.

#arya stark #asoiaf #asoiaf fanart #adult!arya #arya meta #twow speculations

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fromtheseventhhell · 5 months

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She was the night wolf. But only when she dreamed. (The Blind Girl, ADWD) "The hour of the wolf. The blackest part of night, when all the world's asleep." (The Kingbreaker, ADWD)

Thinking thoughts...It's the longest, darkest hour of the night, Arya is the Night Wolf + Dark Heart, it's the time when "the world's asleep" and Arya wargs into Nymeria and the leader of a giant pack of wolves while sleeping, and it's likely she'll reunite with Nymeria right before the long night...

#arya stark #and it being the the hour before dawn...#corn plate moment or no y'all? cause I see the vision 🤭#It just fits so well? like Arya being the Night Wolf alone is enough for me to make the connection and run with it #also the hour of the wolf being an actual historical event denoting Cregan Stark's time in King's Landing?#reminds me of Harwin kneeling to Arya at the Inn of the Kneeling Man...Arya really stacking up historical references #The Lady of Winterfell-ism is just so strong in her chapters and connections how can I not say Queen #/a time for wolves/ was actually about Arya Nymeria their pack and her becoming a leader in the North (and I'm only half joking)#also feel like this could be tangentially related to Jon via the /Black Bastard's heart/ reference + him waking at the hour of the wolf +#his connection to the Others and the North + foreshadowing for KITN...could be a hint of his resurrection #or it could be nothing and I'm just overthinking things but I've seen a lot flimsier theories so 🤷🏾‍♀️#twow speculation #?? I guess

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elegantwoes · 1 year

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For a while now I have been wondering what the overall point was of characters like Sandor Clegane and Dontos Hollard being in Sansa’s story and I think I finally figured it out. While it’s true that both of them are false Florians and have betrayed Sansa in different ways, it should be noted that Sansa’s morals and ideals has sparked something in them to help her in some capacity (i.e Sandor saving her in the bread riot & Dontos helping her escape). Both of them are there to establish Sansa has the ability to inspire knightly valor in others. And if Sansa’s ability to inspire that is strong enough to get two alcoholic, disillusioned, broken men to fight for her, then imagine what Sansa can do with it when she inspires the Knights of the Vale to fight for her cause.

#asoiaf #sansa stark #valyrianscrolls #slight TWOW speculation #sansa appreciation post #meaning they are there to establish Sansa is a true queen who can inspire others like no other

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ser-zoras · 1 month

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asoiaf predictions that will probably make people mad

sansa politically marries that guy whatshisface. kills littlefinger in self defense either via moon door or very fancy knife, possibly also poison. declares her husband regent of the vale in littlefinger's absence, and quickly allies herself with daenerys as dany pushes west. they fall in love, the embodiment of ice and fire.

brienne doesn't kill jaime bc honestly where would that leave the rest of us. anyway. they probs talk their way out of fighting lady stoneheart and either jaime dies fighting the others, leaving brienne to hedge knight her way around in his honor, or they disappear into the riverlands, never to be heard from again.

if any of the key five die (again), it's gonna be dany, but not in a mad queen way, but in self-sacrifice against the others after her conquest of westeros, which started with dragonstone. thematically implies that the reason daenys had that vision in the first place was so that the targaryens would continue on and produce dany in order to save the world. somehow the destruction of the iron throne will factor in, having served its distorted purpose in keeping the targaryen line alive long enough to create daenerys. this either kills drogon or sends him off toward the sunset sea.

dragonrider bran. either he or jon will rule westeros, don't know which.

speaking of jon, he's going to Come Back Wrong somehow. I think it'll be a targaryen-related way, but he's gonna eventually come around with his stark heritage. if he doesn't end up king of the seven kingdoms, he'll be king beyond the wall.

i don't know what's going to happen to arya. i think she'll surprise me, but i'm certain she's not gonna be lady of winterfell. i think that contradicts too much of her personal convictions about her purpose in life.

contrary to popular belief, i think there's only a 50/50 chance tyrion's gonna be a dragonrider. he's going to come over with dany but he will either choose to return to essos, searching for tysha or possibly accepting the reality of her death, or he'll stay on in westeros as jon's hand of the king. either way, penny will be a significant deciding factor.

stannis kills davos. not as a murder plot, but it's gonna be like. a whole thing.

missandei is protected and cared for and she writes a history of dany's brief reign as an adult(manifesting) and rickon is undeniably Odd now but he's going to be okay and somehow ends up the most normal brother. absolute tourney knight of a fellow (manifesting).

and last but not least, cersei is not killed by either of her brothers, although i think there's a slim chance she kills jaime, which triggers her death. she will be killed by one of her own plots, probably one related to wildfire, but being cersei, she will internalize it as a death by tyrion's hand.

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jozor-johai · 2 months

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Dorne, Shown not Told: how Darkstar is more than his reputation.

Darkstar used to bug me as a character—not necessarily because of his edgy dialogue, but because the way he was written: he's not on-page for very long, so we're really told much more about him than we are shown anything.

I've seen this same complaint voiced before, and almost always it's brushed over as an inherent failure of Gerold as a character, or other arguments that presuppose a lack of faith in Martin.

I can understand why, without deeper analysis, some people try to make the Doylist argument that Darkstar must be lazy writing by Martin, something along the lines of "I have to introduce this guy quick, so here's a bunch of backstory told by a bunch of characters". Instead, though, I argue that this situation of being "told" so much about Darkstar is actually the Watsonian perspective of his character; it is Arianne who has been told so much about him, and we're experiencing her misconceptions.

I've come to realize that the feeling of being "told" about Darkstar, with a focus away from what we're "shown," is fully intentional. With this different approach to interpreting Darkstar's character, I've found that not only do I like him so much more as a character in-universe, but I also like him so much more as an element in George R R Martin's writing. Melisandre might be his "most misunderstood character," but I think Gerold Dayne must be up there too.

I don't understand why it took me so long to see it: ASOIAF is all about the way that information—or misinformation—spreads and changes the course of action and history. Of course this would be a theme to look out for. Once I started to dig more into this idea in relation to Darkstar, I realized just how prevalent this theme was in the Dornish arc, which is entirely about the way that people are told something, and the way that being told these things—even without evidence—has such an impact. That's what the companion post to this one is about.

If you've read that post already, and now I've got you on board to doubt the reputation that Darkstar has, and to doubt the story Arianne was told about him, this is the post where I rebuild Gerold's character from scratch, and convince you that he's actually an alright guy, a trustworthy one, and possibly even a true knight. Maybe, even, he's worthy of Dawn, and the title of "Sword of the Morning."

I'm sure I'm not the first to suggest this, as it's been so many years, but it's exciting to experience a moment of realization that makes me see the writing itself in a new light, so I wanted to share my thought process here.

2.0 Gerold Dayne, shown not told.

In this part, I attempt to look at Gerold Dayne as if I were Areo Hotah, not Arianne: to watch what he does and says, on page, rather than take anyone's word for it, and rather than interpret his actions against a prejudice that he is as dark and dangerous as Arianne thinks. This way, I want to see what kind of man Gerold Dayne actually shows us he is, through his actions and interactions, rather than who we're told he is.

Beyond just doubting Doran's story because I don't believe Doran to be trustworthy, here I'll be explaining why I think that once we get to know Darkstar as best as we can, maiming Myrcella doesn't even really sound like something he would do.

This is a long one too, like the other one, so the rest is after the cut

2.1 Early good impressions—by being early

We don't see very much of Darkstar on-page, so let's start with our very first impression of him, in the second paragraph of the chapter:

Arianne Martell arrived with Drey and Sylva just as the sun was going down, with the west a tapestry of gold and purple and the clouds all glowing crimson. The ruins seemed aglow as well; the fallen columns glimmered pinkly, red shadows crept across the cracked stone floors, and the sands themselves turned from gold to orange to purple as the light faded. Garin had arrived a few hours earlier, and the knight called Darkstar the day before.

We don't know when they arranged to meet, but I think there's room for a symbolic meaning to Arianne arriving just as the sun goes down. Symbolically, the day ending as soon as she arrives mirrors the way that her plan is going to end as soon as it begins.

In addition, it's a signature of Arianne's character this chapter, moving just slightly too slowly. In this way, Arianne is already more like her father than she wants to admit—remember the overripe oranges falling in The Captain of the Guards, or how Areo knew that Doran saying they would leave at dawn meant midday. Arianne is the same—she arrives to her own plan at dusk.

Even without that comparison, Arianne's late arrival is emblematic of her inability to structure a plan as carefully as she believes she can, which is also something that haunts her for the rest of his arc. Consider the meaning of this for her: she is the head of this plan, and yet she and her two companions are the last to arrive. Garin beats her to the rendezvous place by a few hours... and Darkstar is almost the opposite extreme. He gets there a whole day early.

Perhaps that's suspect, perhaps that's responsible; this alone is not enough to say. For a certainty, though, this clearly positions Darkstar as someone who is, say, the opposite of the "Late" Lord Walder Frey. He's a man who comes early, not late.

As the chapter continues, it's not the only time that Arianne lags carelessly while Darkstar vouches for a more responsible course of action, so keep this in mind. This passage sets the tone for the rest of the chapter.

2.2 What makes a man "Great"?

The next time we see Darkstar on page, we get his first line of dialogue and his first actual on-page action. He juts in while the others are talking about the storied hero who is Garin's namesake:

"Garin the Great," offered Drey, "the wonder of the Rhoyne." "That's the one. He made Valyria tremble." "They trembled," said Ser Gerold, "then they killed him. If I led a quarter of a million men to death, would they call me Gerold the Great?" He snorted. "I shall remain Darkstar, I think. At least it is mine own." He unsheathed his longsword, sat upon the lip of the dry well, and began to hone the blade with an oilstone.

There's a lot to unpack here for such a short passage. To begin with, we can interpret some of Darkstar's values from his additions to this conversation. He clearly has a certain pragmatism, because he chooses to see through the veneration that the stories have afforded "Garin the Great", and points out that his cause was actually poorly met. In this way, Gerold might come off like a humorless spoilsport, but we can also consider the fact that he's already learned some of the lessons that other characters, like Sansa, have been forced to face: reality does not match the songs, and not all "heroes" are good people.

Gerold also shows a concern for the ranks of the military. It's not about one man's veneration for him, it's about the success of the plan—and the survival of the men who act on it. This is actually the same concern for Dorne that Doran is obsessed with, at the end of The Watcher:

"Until the Mountain crushed my brother's skull, no Dornishmen had died in this War of the Five Kings," the prince murmured softly, as Hotah pulled a blanket over him. "Tell me, Captain, is that my shame or my glory?"

Doran has spent a lifetime hemming and hawing over this notion, unsure of whether to act or to wait, and choosing inaction over decision. By stark contrast, Gerold speaks with a casual certainty: "Garin the Great" was no good at all, because all his men died, and he lost. It might make him sound like a cynic, but Dayne knows what he believes in. Leading men to their death is no greatness at all.

2.3 Choosing one's own name

And, now knowing his thoughts on blind veneration, we might reinterpret his decision to invent his own nickname. Rather than grasping for approval from in songs (like Tywin's Rains of Castamere), his act of naming himself could be seen as a sign of honor, not blind pride.

"If I led a quarter of a million men to death, would they call me Gerold the Great?" He snorted. "I shall remain Darkstar, I think. At least it is mine own."

He does not believe in misjudged "bravery" for the sake of a title, and therefore is unlike so many others who we see across ASOIAF ready to die fighting in their desire for glory. Rather than dreaming of becoming immortalized in a song, Darkstar has no lust for public approval—he's given himself his own title, and means to prove himself against his own standard.

And at least it is his own. ASOIAF is a story where so much weight is put into names and epithets—Arya and Sansa losing their names and even their chapter titles, Brienne and Jaime fighting against the disparaging nicknames they are given. Here, Darkstar has already proven himself past all of those troubles with this one action—regardless of whatever names others should call him, or even remember him by, he shall go by this one, the name, and the fate, that he chose for himself.

2.4 Honing the blade

And then, immediately, Gerold starts caring for his blade.

He unsheathed his longsword, sat upon the lip of the dry well, and began to hone the blade with an oilstone.

Interestingly, the list of people who hone their blade on-page is surprisingly short. This shared action puts Gerold in league with the likes of Brienne:

I will, she promised his shade, there in the piney wood. She sat down on a rock, took out her sword, and began to hone its edge. I will remember, and I pray I will not flinch.

And also the likes of Yoren, Arya, Jon, Meera, Barristan, and Hotah himself; all of whom are dutiful if not also generally good-hearted. Ilyn Payne and Rakharo, care for their blades on-page, too, and though I'm not sure if they get enough story time to argue whether or not they are good-hearted, they are certainly pragmatic, skilled, and committed. Bronn, too, hones his blade on-page, and even if not good-hearted, he's these other positive qualities, the ones that make him likeable even in his scoundrel status: Bronn is skilled, pragmatic, dedicated to his craft, and even committed after his own fashion (he does name his adoptive child Tyrion, after all).

Better tying this to a morality case, the first time we see Sandor Clegane caring for his blade is after the Red Wedding, after he fully commits to taking in Arya. Similarly, Jaime is only seen caring for his blade in Feast and later, after he begins to have his own character turn towards searching for honor.

In stark contrast, Theon pulls out his blade to "sharpen" it before facing his father in Clash, but he only "gave it a few licks" with the whetstone ... what a total poser.

(It's a silly thing, but the most minor character we see sharpening a blade is a stray Blackwood... so you know these are the good guys, haha. Oswell Whent, too, which I don't make much of myself but I know others have.)

So, when we see Gerold Dayne start to sharpen his blade as his first on-page action, we might think: here is a man who is responsible, who is committed to duty, who believes in taking care of his person and his honor. Tying little actions like this to character qualities is the kind of thing GRRM does frequently.

2.5 Sober attitude

To a similar end, we also see that Gerold Dayne doesn't drink, preferring water with lemon.

Once the kindling caught, they sat around the flames and passed a skin of summerwine from hand to hand . . . all but Darkstar, who preferred to drink unsweetened lemonwater.

Which puts him in league with Brienne again:

"I would prefer water," said Brienne. "Elmar, the red for Ser Jaime, water for the Lady Brienne, and hippocras for myself." Bolton waved a hand at their escort, dismissing them, and the men beat a silent retreat.

As well as Stannis, paragon of "duty":

But not today, I think—ah, here's your son with our water." Devan set the tray on the table and filled two clay cups. The king sprinkled a pinch of salt in his cup before he drank; Davos took his water straight, wishing it were wine.

Again, this is the kind of quality that is associated with people who are attached to their sense of duty. (Note also that as Brienne feels increasingly lost during her search for Sansa, we see her increasingly drink wine. Roose, for his part, doesn't just drink wine, but wants wine sweetened with sugar and spices, which, like Littlefinger's minty breath, covers up his harsh reality).

So Gerold Dayne, in word and action, seems to have more in common with duty- and honor-bound characters, rather than being the heartless rogue which the Martells seem to believe he is.

2.6 Arianne's imagination versus Gerold's reality

Arianne asserts that Gerold would go so far as to exterminate an entire clan... but it's while she's fantasizing about ruling Sunspear with Myrcella as Queen:

Once I crown Myrcella and free the Sand Snakes, all Dorne will rally to my banners. The Yronwoods might declare for Quentyn, but alone they were no threat. If they went over to Tommen and the Lannisters, she would have Darkstar destroy them root and branch.

So we know what Arianne thinks he's capable of, but we also have heard Dayne's own thoughts that war for its own sake is not laudable. Would he really be the type to eradicate a whole family, like Arianne says? So far, he seems otherwise like an alright guy, and potentially even a true knight, so far: he takes care of his sword, he stays sober, he arrives early, he's not searching for glory from others, and he doesn't believe one should be rewarded for idiotic wars.

If I were to put this in a single quote—if I could create a single moment where I might show that Arianne's mental image of Darkstar is one way (hard, dangerous, mean) and his reality was a different way (dutiful, pragmatic, and good-hearted)—I might show it like this:

He has a cruel mouth, though, and a crueler tongue. His eyes seemed black as he sat outlined against the dying sun, sharpening his steel, but she had looked at them from a closer vantage and she knew that they were purple. Dark purple. Dark and angry. He must have felt her gaze upon him, for he looked up from his sword, met her eyes, and smiled.

Does he have a cruel mouth, and dark, angry eyes? Or does he have an easy smile? Arianne tells us the former... but so far, we are shown the latter.

And what does Gerold himself say with that "cruel tongue"? What counsel does he give, what courses does he suggest?

2.7 Gerold's bloody suggestion

Before Myrcella arrives, Gerold Dayne has the chance to offer counsel to Arianne. This moment comes directly following that moment where all of Arianne's other conspirators confide that they don't trust him, and that they don't need him for the plan. Immediately afterward, Darkstar returns and suggests that the plan isn't very good to begin with.

Dayne put a foot upon the head of a statue that might have been the Maiden till the sands had scoured her face away. "It occurred to me as I was pissing that this plan of yours may not yield you what you want."

While all of Arianne's friends have warned her of Darkstar, why is it that Darkstar is the only one to warn Arianne that this is a poor plan? It's important to remember that he's right, after all, because this plan gets thwarted, and as he goes on to say, was ill-concieved to begin with. If he can see it, why have none of Arianne's other allies considered this? Or, more interestingly, why have none of them told her?

This conversation continues, and notice how Arianne is never straightforward with Gerold about how she feels in response to his questioning. She says one thing, and then thinks another to herself. Already, we are being shown how we might be distrustful of what we are told—and again, Arianne has more in common with her father than she thinks. She knows how to speak carefully when she really has another objective.

"And what is it I want, ser?" "The Sand Snakes freed. Vengeance for Oberyn and Elia. Do I know the song? You want a little taste of lion blood." That, and my birthright. I want Sunspear, and my father's seat. I want Dorne. "I want justice." "Call it what you will. Crowning the Lannister girl is a hollow gesture. She will never sit the Iron Throne. Nor will you get the war you want. The lion is not so easily provoked." "The lion's dead. Who knows which cub the lioness prefers?" "The one in her own den." Ser Gerold drew his sword. It glimmered in the starlight, sharp as lies. "This is how you start a war. Not with a crown of gold, but with a blade of steel."

At first blush, it's easy to get caught up in the notion that Darkstar is simply offering to kill Myrcella for the ease of it all. We're told the whole chapter that Darkstar is a violent man, and here's the evidence.

Arianne herself only considers this interpretation, and it's how she remembers the conversation once she's imprisoned:

He wanted to kill her instead of crowning her, he said as much at Shandystone. He said that was how I'd get the war I wanted.

However, this conversation, though brief, is not so simple as that. Instead, while Gerold's advice to Arianne here at first seems unnecessarily violent, he's actually displaying wisdoms that we learn elsewhere in the story.

For a start, we see Gerold's disdain for vengeance for it's own sake—and his suggestion to Arianne that this quest of revenge and authority will not actually get her what she wants. In Gerold's words, she wants "a taste of lion's blood." He knows this song, as he says, as well as Ellaria, who gives an identical warning with far more impassioned language to the same audience ADWD The Watcher:

"Oberyn wanted vengeance for Elia. Now the three of you want vengeance for him. I have four daughters, I remind you. Your sisters. My Elia is fourteen, almost a woman. Obella is twelve, on the brink of maidenhood. They worship you, as Dorea and Loreza worship them. If you should die, must El and Obella seek vengeance for you, then Dorea and Loree for them? Is that how it goes, round and round forever? I ask again, where does it end?" Ellaria Sand laid her hand on the Mountain's head. "I saw your father die. Here is his killer. Can I take a skull to bed with me, to give me comfort in the night? Will it make me laugh, write me songs, care for me when I am old and sick?"

Gerold says it more simply, and more harshly: this quest for vengeance and lion's blood will not get you what you want.

He then tries another angle, saying that "Crowning the Lannister girl is a hollow gesture. She will never sit the Iron Throne. Nor will you get the war you want." This sounds, at first, like a complaint of the plan's futility, but he offers a suggestion of how to achieve said war instead: "Not with a crown of gold, but with a blade of steel."

I have to point out the metaphor at use in this moment:

Ser Gerold drew his sword. It glimmered in the starlight, sharp as lies.

A blade as sharp as lies—yet another allusion to this constant Dornish theme of lying and deadly misinformation. Seen from another perspective, we might put it another way: that lies are as deadly as a blade. This, too, is Doran's message: that the grass which hides the snake is just as deadly.

This too is Gerold's message, because in combination, his suggestion that crowning her is empty and to kill her is simpler sounds like an allusion to another wisdom we learn later in ADWD Tyrion I, given by Illyrio when Tyrion alights on the same bright idea as Arianne, to crown Myrcella:

"In Volantis they use a coin with a crown on one face and a death's-head on the other. Yet it is the same coin. To queen her is to kill her."

Gerold understands this, and he displays it in this conversation. His offer here, then, is to skip the trouble in between—the girl will never sit the Iron Throne in any case, so Arianne should just kill her and be done with it, and have your war that way.

Rather than a threat against Myrcella's life, the way Arianne remembers it, we might see this as a challenge: if Gerold sees that both acts end in Myrcella's death, and both in war, he's presenting Arianne reality of the lack of choice.

In a way, this is consistent with his earlier complaints about Garin the Great—was it worth it to make Valyria "tremble" at the cost of so many of his own? Gerold's question, though harshly put, makes Arianne face that question now, before they start off with the plans.

Like her father, though, Arianne defers the problem, preferring not to address it this night.

I am no murderer of children. "Put that away. Myrcella is under my protection. And Ser Arys will permit no harm to come to his precious princess, you know that."

Arianne makes the choice, but she does not say it aloud. Why? Because even she sees that it's contradictory to raise her up and expect her to live?

As we see so often with Arianne, she foolishly answers that it's not her responsibility. Myrcella may be under her protection, but Arianne relies on Ser Arys' action to keep it that way. Arianne tries to argue that the weight of this threat to Myrcella is not Arianne's burden to take, but rather Arys'.

Darkstar disagrees, pointing out the longstanding rivalry between the Dornish and the Marcher Lords.

"No, my lady. What I know is that Daynes have been killing Oakhearts for several thousand years." His arrogance took her breath away. "It seems to me that Oakhearts have been killing Daynes for just as long." "We all have our family traditions." Darkstar sheathed his sword. "The moon is rising, and I see your paragon approaching."

Finally, though, actions once again speak louder than words. Rather than pull his sword here against Arys, like he was just threatening to do, he sheathes his sword when he spots Arys, obeying Arianne's command. So far, whatever he's said, Gerold is still committed to following Arianne's wishes.

His threats about Daynes killing Oakhearts has another layer of meaning, though, in this complete context: Daynes have been killing Oakhearts, yes, but it's not just Daynes who wouldn't blink at killing a Marcher, it's all of the Dornish—as Arys is so intimately aware of in his one chapter.

As much as Arianne is dodging responsibility, she's also right that Arys is the final obstacle in anyone's way should they wish to do harm to Myrcella. Note, though, that despite the story Doran and Arianne later tell the Sand Snakes, it is not Darkstar who slays Arys—it's Areo Hotah. If we say that actions speak louder than words, hear this: Gerold sheathes his sword when Arys approaches, and it is Doran (through Areo) who kills Myrcella's most leal protector.

Given all the trouble Doran later goes to in an attempt to smooth over Arys' death, Gerold is probably right here that a dead Arys means war. Once again, Gerold is a pragmatic thinker, in theory. In my opinion, despite the cruelty of his suggestion, his conversation about the death of Myrcella is a reality check, not a call for wanton violence.

2.8 Gerold's good counsel and care

Later comes the second time where Arianne lags carelessly... and here, Gerold steps in to give Arianne good counsel.

Arianne had hoped to reach the river before the sun came up, but they had started much later than she'd planned, so they were still in the saddle when the eastern sky turned red. Darkstar cantered up beside her. "Princess," he said, "I'd set a faster pace, unless you mean to kill the child after all. We have no tents, and by day the sands are cruel."

Here, contradicting the stories of Gerold Dayne as a cruel man, Darkstar seems to show more direct concern for Myrcella's wellbeing than any of the other plotters. Arianne—like her father—moves to slow, and Gerold wants to make sure that the girl isn't killed. He's not just pragmatic in theory, he can also be pragmatic and considerate when it comes to the young girl with them.

Here, also, we see that Gerold does not actually mean the girl harm. The accusation that Darkstar slashed Myrcella implies this narrative where Darkstar took advantage of the chaos to finally take his chance to kill the girl and make good on his threat. If that were the case, then here Darkstar could have simply said nothing, and let the girl suffer or even die from the heat. Instead, he speaks up in order to spare Myrcella from the sand's cruelty.

2.9 Gerold's opinion of Arthur Dayne

With all of this context, I'll finally take a look at Gerold's opinion of Arthur Dayne.

As she led the princess to the fire, Arianne found Ser Gerold behind her. "My House goes back ten thousand years, unto the dawn of days," he complained. "Why is it that my cousin is the only Dayne that anyone remembers?" "He was a great knight," Ser Arys Oakheart put in. "He had a great sword," Darkstar said. "And a great heart."

He clearly loves the Dayne house, but seems to have less respect than most for Arthur. Many and more have taken this to be a sign of petty envy, that Darkstar is questioning Arthur's skill at swordplay, perhaps in comparison to his own.

But consider the quote another way: we know from his opinion of "Garin the Great" that Gerold resists the idea of blindly idolizing heroes only because they have become great in the telling. This newer hero, Arthur, is no more special to him. What has he actually done, not what stories have been told of him?

Once again, this is a return of our theming: being shown, not told. Gerold is quick to resist the allure of the songs of Arthur Dayne—to Gerold, there are plenty of other Daynes just as special, or perhaps even more so. This is not a lack of love for his house, nor for honor and glory—quite the opposite. Like with choosing his own name, Darkstar wants to create his own context to see Arthur in, as part of a ten thousand year old lineage of great Daynes (ha) and not some special, magic knight.

Perhaps Gerold Dayne is pointing out that there is more to a knight than having a sword; perhaps he is condemning the idea of equating "swordplay" with "greatness".

What we hear about Arthur is more often than not about his prowress with a sword, but consider the context in which Arthur Dayne was brought up in this chapter. When Myrcella brings him up, his reputation is marred by the fact it's own existence:

"There was an Arthur Dayne," Myrcella said. "He was a knight of the Kingsguard in the days of Mad King Aerys."

Not the most good-hearted of details to remember him by, truth be told.

I suggest that this passage instead serves to suggest that Gerold has a stricter sense of what is valorous than most. Even the great, seemingly infallible Arthur Dayne was a sword in defense of the Mad King. Does serving the Mad King still make for a "great knight"? Or only a "great sword"?

Of course, there's another interesting aspect to this quote: despite his disregard for the particular qualities of Arthur, Gerold is more than willing to acknowledge the greatness of the sword Dawn. I'll get into that at the end.

2.10 Gerold sues for peace

Finally, in his final appearance on-page, we get a last word from Gerold Dayne, who, this time, says exactly what Arianne is thinking... when she, again, is too slow to act, and is unable to say anything herself.

You reckless fool, was all that Arianne had time to think, what do you think you're doing? Darkstar's laughter rang out. "Are you blind or stupid, Oakheart? There are too many. Put up your sword."

Darkstar suggests to all that they surrender. He suggests they put up their swords. Yet again, this is a consistent characterization for Darkstar: a man who speaks against the honor of leading others in a death charge, a man who is a sober thinker, a man who plans to arrive early, and a man who considers heavily the consequences of the actions at hand, especially when they end in the death of a young girl.

After all this, I don't think it sounds like Darkstar to make a wild, reckless, opportune grasp for Myrcella's life, no matter whatever Doran says. Instead, Gerold Dayne has all the trappings of a dutiful knight, and even his brusque edges come from a certain brutal realism, not a sense of jilted pride. He may even be a good and caring man at times.

3.0 My predictions for TWOW: GRRM's next moves

I used to really not like Darkstar. I don't mind him being a little cringe, because this whole series, as well written as it is, still has plenty of pulpy 80s underpinnings which I love just as much as the highbrow stuff. I can handle a little melodrama, fine... but why is Darkstar so flat, I wondered. It felt so incredibly—uncharacteristically—clumsy to have this hurried introduction of a character, and have everyone in the chapter rush to tell the reader how dangerous he is, just so he could do the "dangerous guy" thing and run off to become the next MacGuffin of Dorne.

That is, if everything, or anything, that we were told about him is true.

If we understand that not all we're told is true, then GRRM hasn't actually spent a whole chapter telling without showing. Instead, he's been consistently playing with the same notions of actual reality vs. stories and lies that the rest of the Dornish plot revolves around (and the rest of the series, for that matter, but I'm staying focused here).

In addition, all of that telling we got about Gerold Dayne wasn't at all for the purpose of giving us a quick, surface level introduction to the character (which makes sense, because George is otherwise so good with character). Instead, all that telling is part of a larger, longer plot about Doran's scheming and lying, and Arianne's own susceptibility to Doran's stories.

Finally, and most of all, it all sets up one of GRRM's favorite things to do: a subversion of a character in a twist that involves a sudden change of perspective.

If Arianne and Doran have spent 4 (or 5, including TWOW previews) chapters now telling us what a nasty guy Gerold Dayne is, won't it be a shock once he's granted Dawn rightfully and is named the next Sword of the Morning? What's even better is that, looking back, it will be clear to see how much he isn't a nasty guy—he's actually a pretty good candidate, dutiful, smart, aware of the consequences. He's the kind of guy to take care of himself, keeping his mind and blade sharp, and to be considerate of those lesser than him, as with Myrcella or Garin's army. He may not be a nice guy, but being nice and kind are not always the same. That character of Darkstar, the knight worthy of Dawn, was there all along—except that it was all obfuscated under Arianne internal narration and Doran's repeated lying.

After all, he is of the night... which sounds super edgy, but is foreshadowing too. What comes after the night? The Morning.

Being "of the night" might not be Darkstar being an antihero, but instead being anti- heroes, he's against the concept of the overinflated hero. Like Sandor Clegane, who starts to seem more and more a true knight despite despising knights, Darkstar may be set up to take on a legendary mantle, like Sword of the Morning, despite his utter disdain for legendary heroes, like Ser Arthur and Garin the Great.

And actually, I suspect that Darkstar is quite familiar with Dawn already—after all, despite his cool words about Ser Arthur, Gerold Dayne does seem to recognize the greatness of Dawn. I expect that he's seen its value for himself.

Gerold is the type of man to take himself seriously ... and while that's very easy to make fun of from a reader's perspective, it's a very admirable quality in a knight. It's the same trajectory Jaime has been on: everything used to be a joke to him, but no longer: Jaime is learning how to shed that shield of humor and to take himself and his honor seriously. Can we begrudge Ser Gerold the same?

Rather than hunting down a villain, Areo Hotah, Obara, and Balon Swann are on Doran's truth-suppression mission. For after all, as Lady Nym pointed out, loose ends make for exposed lies. If I replace some of the names of her cautionary message from The Watcher:

If Gerold Dayne is alive, soon or late the truth will out. If he appears again, Doran Martell will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. He would be an utter fool to risk that.

And so Doran sends his unbeatable Hotah, with his massive and lethal axe that already killed one Kingsguard and might well kill another. How is Gerold Dayne going to match up against that?

Well, he'll have a great sword.

#jozor thoughts #asoiaf meta #asoiaf analysis #Doran Martell and Gerold Dayne #valyrianscrolls #twow speculation #darkstar #Dorne Told not Shown

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atopvisenyashill · 5 months

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THE PACT OF ICE AND FIRE

so there's an aspect of this one i don't think has really been delved into that I think may be important when it comes to canon jonsa and I wanted to do my own lil analysis, along with maybe some tin hatting at the end here.

this is what the pact is (or what we know of it at any rate, Munkun is not exactly a good source of information):

Cregan Stark and Jacaerys Velaryon reached an accord, and signed and sealed the agreement that Grand Maester Munkun calls “the Pact of Ice and Fire” in his True Telling. Like many such pacts, it was to be sealed with a marriage. Lord Cregan’s son, Rickon, was a year old. Prince Jacaerys was as yet unmarried and childless, but it was assumed that he would sire children of his own once his mother sat the Iron Throne. Under the terms of the pact, the prince’s firstborn daughter would be sent north at the age of seven, to be fostered at Winterfell until such time as she was old enough to marry Lord Cregan’s heir.

There's two parts to this that I think are important here. Here is the first, which is the basics of the pact, and that most Jonsas are familiar with:

Jacaery's First Born Daughter Is Fostered At Winterfell -> She will marry Cregan's first born son and heir.

Obviously, this never happened for several reasons and the pact is forgotten but perhaps it will be fulfilled anyway by...

Jon, a secret Targaryen bastard, is "fostered" at Winterfell -> he will fulfill the pact by marrying a Stark Maiden aka Sansa.

Basically, it's a genderswapped version of what the pact entails. I think given George's fondness for how Tolkien was a hater of Macbeth because he thought the "no man of woman born" should have indicated a girl and not just a man born via c-section, I think the genderswap aspect fits George's style.

The second part however, has more to do with Jacaerys and Sara and I feel like it's glossed over a bit. See here:

They had spoken their vows in Winterfell’s own godswood before a heart tree, and only then had she given herself to him, wrapped in furs amidst the snows as the old gods looked on.

Jacaerys, a "secret" Targaryen bastard who gets his family name and allegiances through his mother, not his father -> Rumors of a secret marriage in front of a Weirwood with a Stark bastard, Sara

Listen. It doesn't matter whether Sara Snow is real, you believe whatever makes you happy! But what IS real and relevant is that this part was included in F&B for a reason, and is indicated to be the catalyst for the pact. Jace and Sara get secret married in front of a Weirwood, and this is what calms down Cregan so they can make their pact. And here is how (I believe) it applies to Jonsa:

Jon, a secret Targaryen bastard, but who gets his look and his allegiance not through his father but Lyanna's blood -> Jon, a Stark bastard, will marry an Heir in secret in front of a Weirwood tree.

THAT is, imo, the most important aspect of this scandalous story from Mushroom - that a secret bastard, a targaryen and a stark, secretly marry in front of a Weirwood tree just before a bloody war kicks off. People tend to make Sansa the Sara in this part, which is valid, but I think Sansa's role in this is not just to be the pretty Stark maiden, but to be the HEIR that is secretly marrying for love, like Jacaerys is, and that Jon's role will be about his status as a bastard, so that both parts kind of apply to both characters. And given that, if Jace and Sara had married, their daughter would have been a Starkgaryen with "secret" bastard heritage (from both her parents), marrying a Stark Heir, it does make sense (at least in my mind) that this may apply to Jon and Sansa's future plot. the That's something I touched on here in my "what will Jon's endgame" post.

Then there's the Vermax of it all...

Mushroom also claims that Vermax left a clutch of dragon’s eggs at Winterfell, which is equally absurd. Whilst it is true that determining the sex of a living dragon is a nigh on impossible task, no other source mentions Vermax producing so much as a single egg, so it must be assumed that he was male. Septon Barth’s speculation that the dragons change sex at need, being “as mutable as flame,” is too ludicrous to consider.)

This brought to mind the ole' Jonnel and Sansa (the first) thing - beyond the J&S similarities (Jacaerys & Sara, Jon & Sansa, Jonnel & Sansa), I think it's also important that Jonnel and Sansa never have any children, though they're married for several years. Jacaerys and Sara also never have children, yet there's the rumor Vermax laid eggs in the crypt, with some believing this may have meant Sara was pregnant (but perhaps miscarried) when Jacaerys left. I think however, the fact that both J&S couples kind of mysteriously do not have children of their own, and that their Houses descend from someone else to be important.

I've kind of briefly gone into the idea that Bran rules in a parliamentary style over (what's left of) Westeros, and while I'm not too committed one way or the other on whether he physically has children or whether they elect the ruler on the Iron Throne more often starting from Bran, the succession is significantly less of an issue because of the permanent Great Council/Parliament that will exist. Sansa (and Jon, for that matter), however, is the heiress to a long line of kings and lords and needs some sort of heir. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibililty that while in the Vale, she connects with some of Jocelyn Stark's descendants (the famous "Vale cousins" that Catelyn mentions as heirs for Robb) and makes one of them her heir, or even names the children of Arya her heir, and pulls a Queen Elizabeth, but then I thought of Vermax laying dragon eggs that are never found, and Jonnel and Sansa never having children, and George's love of threes and thought...perhaps Jon and Sansa will have an heir, but Sansa can't claim the child as hers.

In that same vein, it’s noteworthy to me as well that Serena and Edric (Sansa's younger sister and Jonnel's younger brother) have TWO sons but the line completely bypasses them. We have no idea how the Northerners felt about these marriages beyond the fact that they didn't like Lynara's sons because their rules were plagued by troubles. Is it possible that they chose to bypass Edric's sons because of the incest, and Sansa/Jon may be forced to reconcile with how the realm views him (as Ned's son) and what he actually is (Lyanna's son) when it comes to the line of succession? IE - Vermax is rumored to lay an egg in the crypts but no one ever finds out, Sansa is rumored to have have had a child with her “brother” but no one ever finds out the truth.

TO SUM UP: I think the Pact of Ice and Fire is a hint that Jon and Sansa will secretly marry in the godswood of Winterfell, and it's likely that when Sansa is named Queen in the North, her heir will be "fathered by a wolf" or a "wildling" and she and Jon won't be able to tell anyone that Jon is the father.

#i was going to end this with the 'much to think about' billy ray cyrus meme but i stopped myself #jonsa #jonsa meta #actually jonsa #jon snow #sansa stark #jacaerys velaryon #jacaerys targaryen #getting on my soap box #serena stark #jonnel stark #edric stark #sara snow #rani attempts meta #twow speculation #ados speculation #stone and snow remains #i think that's all my tags #i'm literally so nervous posting this bc i think the last part might be a stretch so if u think its dumb do Not tell me or i'll throw up lo #i also know a lot of non jonsas follow me and the opinion of most non jonsas tends to be 'those people are crazy' :'(((((((#it's not relevant to the meta but i have kinda theorized that sansa was going to say her kids were fathered by a wolf for a long time.#and then i read twoiaf and f&b and this all clicked into place for me. so i feel even if jonsa doesn't happen. we'll get something similar #where *we* the reader knows that sansa has a secret husband/lover and he's the father but the north doesn't know (and doesn't care tm)

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jackoshadows · 5 months

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I feel like GRRM is stuck on Bran Stark. Bran being hard to write is why, despite being one of the central characters of the books, he only has half the POV chapters of Jon Snow. And why he is unable to finish The Winds of Winter and is doubtful of even finishing by 2025.

As a serial procrastinator, I can sympathize with a tendency to put off the hardest task with excuses, while eagerly completing the easiest first.

It's clear that GRRM loves writing Tyrion and Arya. He has an entire novel's worth of material in Braavos for Arya and I feel like the difficulty will be in editing it and cutting it down to fit into TWoW. Similarly Tyrion is most probably done as well, considering all the mentions of him writing Tyrion chapters in his notablog posts. So he's most likely done with the Tyrion and Arya POV chapters. They are the easiest characters for him to write.

Tyrion being done would mean that the Essos plot is largely dealt with as well considering Dany's POV would intersect with Tyrion's at some point and he can't fully finish Tyrion until Dany's is mostly done as well. In May 2012 he mentioned writing Dany's Essosi chapters.

WINDS OF WINTER. Yes, I’m working on that too. At the moment, I am writing about the Dothraki. More than that, I sayeth not, you know I don’t like to talk about this stuff. - Daenerys POV (Essos)

In June 2020, he mentioned Barristan and more chapters in the North.

In between tapings, I return to Westeros. Of late I have been visiting with Cersei, Asha, Tyrion, Ser Barristan, and Areo Hotah. I will be dropping back into Braavos next week. - Cersei, Asha (North), Tyrion, Barristan (Essos)

He has also mentioned writing Victarion chapters.

We also know that the two battles - battle of fire in Essos and the battle of ice in the North - is already written and was simply moved from ADwD to TWoW.

With all this being intricately tied together into one giant plot - Stannis Vs Boltons at Winterfell, Theon and Asha with Stannis, the pink letter to Jon, Jeyne being send to the Wall, GRRM writing about how we will be getting 'Direwolves Vs Ramsay's hounds' etc. - means most of this is also done. GRRM has also mentioned writing Melisandre - the only POV at the Wall now that Jon Snow is dead - chapters. Which means the North/Wall is also mostly done.

“I think we’re gonna start out with a big smash with the two enormous battles,” Martin says (Essos and North). In addition, Martin says, “We have more deaths, and we have more betrayals. We have more marriages.” Let the speculation begin. As he’s noted before, Martin says the Dothraki are coming back into the story (“in a big way”), and he says “a lot of stuff is happening at The Wall.” - GRRM

August 2020:

My life is at home, on hold, and I am spending the days in Westeros with my pals Mel and Sam and Vic and Ty. And that girl with no name, over there in Braavos. - The Wall/Mel, Sam, Victarion, Tyrion, Arya

So there's also Sam/Oldtown/Euron chapters - Sam is another character he loves writing. So that section of the story - possibly Euron's attack on Oldtown seen through Sam and Aeron POV chapters - has also got attention.

What about KL and the Riverlands?

November 2020:

Of late I have been spending a lot of time with theLannisters. Cersei and Tyrion in particular. I’ve also paid a visit to Dorne, and dropped in to Oldtown a time or three. In addition to turning out new chapters, I’ve been revising some old ones (some very old)… including, yes, some stuff I read at cons ages ago, or even posted online as samples. I tweak stuff constantly, and sometimes go beyond tweaking, moving things around, combining chapters, breaking chapters in two, reordering stuff. - Cersei (KL), Tyrion, Sam(Oldtown)

June 2022

WINDS, you say? Yes, still working. Finally finished a clutch of Cersei chapters that were giving me fits. Now I am wrestling with Jaime and Brienne. The work proceeds, though not as fast as many of you would like. - Cersei(KL) Jaime, Brienne (Riverrun, Lady Stoneheart)

So GRRM has recently (recent for us asoiaf fans lol!) finished Cersei, Jaime and Brienne chapters as well. So that's Essos, the North, the Wall, Oldtown, King's Landing and the Riverlands.

What's missing is Bran and Sansa in the Vale in terms of major POV characters. The Vale may just be an instance of being too isolated and unconnected from the rest of the plot until Littlefinger makes his move or GRRM may find writing LF's plotting a bit hard to tackle.

However, it's Bran that stands out for me in not being mentioned, considering this is the penultimate book and the threat from beyond the Wall has to be a big part of this book.

It has been my intention from the start to gradually bring up the amount of magic in each successive volume of A Song of Ice and Fire, and that will continue. - GRRM

“ And it is important that the individual books refer to the civil wars, but the series title reminds us constantly that the real issue lies in the North beyond the Wall. Stannis becomes one of the few characters fully to understand that, which is why in spite of everything he is a righteous man, and not just a version of Henry VII, Tiberius or Louis XI.” - GRRM

From all his interviews here and there, I can think of 3 reasons why the Bran chapters are hard.

This is where a lot of the hard core high fantasy happens. And we know that there's a backstory with Hodor that involves some complex time travel shenanigans - not going to be easy to write for someone in his seventies. Even more complicated in terms of causal loops and temporal paradoxes if it's Bran's consciousness that's doing the time traveling.

Age. GRRM has admitted before that he finds Bran the hardest to write as a disabled little boy. Bran's grown up a couple of years and yet he's still a little boy - Arya's age in AGoT.

Isolation with few fun side characters. GRRM really loves that world building and writing for those tertiary characters surrounding his main character. Arya meeting fun new characters everywhere she goes, her arc in Braavos, Dany in Essos, Jon's colorful and fun side characters, Tyrion traveling through Essos. One reason for why the series blew up from a trilogy into this unfinished mess is because GRRM enjoying writing for the side characters more than the main characters. Brienne got 8 chapters traversing the Riverlands searching for Sansa while Bran languished with 3 chapters in ADwD. Thus far Bran's world is very isolated and disconnected and has the least side characters - Meera, Jojen, Summer, Bloodraven and Coldhands. Of these, only 3 speak.

I think therefore that having written everything that GRRM can of the characters he does enjoy writing and finishing off the political plot points, he has finally turned his attention to Bran Stark. This is hardest part, involves a lot of sticky notes and attention to detail and needs to cover a lot of ground, bringing the Others back into the story in a big way.

I wish him luck. It's not going to be easy to write plots and details that he thought of some 30 years ago but I hope that he gets to finish a decent chunk of Bran chapters so that TWoW can finally be published.

#GRRM #TWoW speculation #asoiaf #TWoW #The Winds of Winter #Bran Stark

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