« Trump won’t just go away; he'll have to be defeated. And Haley can’t defeat him because she has no answer for the central problem: She needs the support of a group of voters who are religiously devoted to him.

However, I do believe that the longer she stays in the race, the more damage she’ll do to Trump’s bid.

[ … ]

It's probably not her intention, but Haley is providing a service to the nation: a soft launch of reminding voters that Trump is a chaos agent of the highest order who put the nation through a dizzying series of unnecessary crucibles that tested the very durability of our institutions and our ability to withstand his anti-democratic onslaught.

Haley has begun to do the work that Biden and his campaign team will greatly expand on — if they're smart. »

— Charles M. Blow writing in the New York Times.

For some bizarre reason, candidates for the GOP presidential nomination thought they could make headway without criticizing the deeply flawed frontrunner.

When Nikki Haley belatedly started slamming Trump, the public attention devoted to her campaign shot up. It's certainly too late to do her much good, but her attacks on Trump do increase the possibility of him responding in such a way that women voters would find offensive.

If Trump loses this year, the GOP will be in shambles. If the party doesn't disintegrate like the Whigs, it will be looking to somebody who was not tied too closely to Trump. By publicly creating some space between herself and The Orange One, Nikki Haley could be looking ahead to 2028.

In the meantime, the more people attacking Trump from different directions – the better. There's already some indication that Biden, or at least his surrogates, are stepping up attacks on Trump's economic record. Reminding voters that Trump's fumbling of the early pandemic response led to economic meltdown should get more emphasis.

You’d think that some of Trump’s opponents for the 2024 GOP nomination would take this opportunity to immediately point out that their biggest obstacle to the nomination not only is the only President to be impeached twice and now indicted on federal charges, but is being charged with violating the ESPIONAGE ACT.

But you can’t upset the party’s political base, right? Nobody wants to stir up the folks at Sedition HQ.

There seems to be no stopping the zombie fans of Donald Trump. Rather than seeing the former president’s multiple criminal indictments, including new charges filed in Georgia last week, as a reason not to support his 2024 run, nearly 3 in 4 Trump voters say showing support during his legal fights is a reason to support him.

According to a CBS News/Yougov poll released Sunday, Trump not only holds a commanding lead over the field of his Republican rivals, he now holds his largest lead yet since CBS/YouGov started polling on the 2024 race. Trump has the support of 62% of likely Republican primary voters, while his nearest opponent, Ron DeSantis, trails him with a measly 16%. That’s a 7 point drop in DeSantis support among those voters just since June.

Likely GOP primary voters also weighed in on Trump’s latest indictment, with 77% saying they believe the indictment is politically motivated. Trump and 18 others were charged in Georgia last week with felony crimes related to his attempts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results.

The poll also questioned likely Republican primary voters about the events of Jan. 6 and Trump’s attempts to overturn the election. Among MAGA supporters, 41% said that then-Vice President Mike Pence did “the wrong thing” that day by counting states’ votes (aka not letting Trump subvert democracy). Only 21% said Pence did “the right thing,” while 38% said they were not sure.

Despite Trump’s countless lies, 71% of Trump voters believe he is a source of “true” information, beating even their own friends and family, who ranked second with 63%.

Trump Continues to Rule GOP w/ 62% CPAC Support

Donald Trump is the clear favorite among a slate of declared Republican presidential candidates and potential candidates, according to voters in a straw poll at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. CPAC conducted a straw poll measuring presidential preference heading into the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. The poll found Donald Trump securing 62% of the vote, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 20%. 

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Blizzards are the true threat to democracy in 2024

The January 2016 United States blizzard. Image credit: NOAA. CC2.0. Bad weather is threatening to disrupt the first chance for voters to have their say in the race for this year’s Republican presidential nominee. A polar vortex is bringing near blizzard conditions to Iowa, just days before the caucuses begin. Both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have cancelled campaign events due to the inclement…

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2023 Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines, Iowa, features 13 GOP presidential candidates, including Trump and DeSantis. Trump leads polls but faces legal issues, creating an opening for DeSantis and rivals. The event's speeches and dynamics could reshape the GOP nomination race. #GOP2023 #LincolnDinner #IowaPolitics

The US far right has been working on their plan since AT LEAST the 1960s, when I was a kid listening to evangelicals talking about their plan to take over the US, and eventually the world. It's called "Christian Dominionism," and it's a fascist ideology which goes hand in glove with the GOP's plans.

Although it was not expressed so much to the world at large, this plan was OPENLY and FREQUENTLY discussed in far right circles. We kids, if we asked about it, were told that it was "God's Will." Ask any exvangelical about it, and they'll confirm. (Part of why I know so much about these dangerous and deluded folks is I WAS ONE OF THEM in my youth.)

And where has that plan gotten them? Well, the GOP recently released a hundreds of pages long document filled with their intentions if they win--including a nationwide abortion ban and a repeal of anti-discrimination laws, among other things.

Trump has already signaled his intent to create a military dictatorship if elected, by repealing laws against using the military against US citizens on US soil sp he can deploy them against dissenters, etc., and if the GOP pick up a few more congressional seats, he can do it. The GOP has already pushed to repeal presidential term limits, and Trump has indicated he'd like to be president for life.

So I'm amazed at all the people who think withholding their vote and letting the GOP win is going to somehow fix things and "push the Dems left."

You wanna know how to push US politics leftward? You're not gonna like it, because it takes actual work beyond stomping your foot and pouting and performatively showing everyone how "pure" you are by refusing to vote.

You have to start the same way the far right did (and again, they've been OPENLY talking about and pursuing this plan since I was a kid in the 1960s, AT LEAST)--they started by getting the most extreme right wingers they possibly could into any position they could. Positions like school board member, police chief, sherrif, city prosecuter, city council member, municipal judge, mayor, governor, hell, fucking dog catcher.

They encouraged far right extremists to become police officers and military personnel and work their way up the ranks to the point at which even the famously-racist FBI reported that major city police departments across the nation were pretty much taken over by members of white supremacist organizations.

In formerly reasonable churches, right wingers pushed for the hiring and training of more and more right wing pastors and mire right-wing theology.

More affluent right-wingers bought local papers and broadcasters, and as their political power grew, they changed laws to make it easier for a single entity to control the news--until now a mere handful of entities own nearly every major media outlet in the US.

And then they used every victory as leverage for the next one, and worked their way up. I mean, there's more, like the capitalization on economic and social anxiety and their inentional exacerbation of same so they could take advantage of it, but that's intertwined with the rest.

Essentially, they got this far because they put the work in.

If the US left is going to turn things around (and if it's not already too late), we've got to do the same, but it takes RESEARCHING and PROMOTING your local and state candidates, attending city council and school board meetings, and shit like that. It's actual fucking work to fix a country.

And then, after you've done all that--and after you've shown up to primaries to try to get any non-authoritarian leftist candidate you can nominated--then you vote for the leftest folks you're able to in the general. If there are no remotely leftist candidates, you vote for the centrist or right winger who will do the least damage.

Again, that's what the US far right has been doing for decades. Taking action. Wherever possible, taking new ground, but when they couldn't do that, ceding as little ground as possible. If they couldn't win, they made damn sure to do everything in their power to try to keep actual decent human beings from winning.

Actually doing the work doesn't have the emotional satisfaction of a grand gesture, but it definitely shows who is serious about making a difference and who would rather let everything burn than sully their imagined purity by voting for anything less than perfection.

Listen, Trump is not going to end the genocide in Gaza--in fact he increased tensions between the Israeli occupation and Palestine. And the GOP will never be persuaded. Hell, they want to let Russia take Ukraine and declare open season on asylum seekers.

The Dems suck. But the GOP is far, far worse, and will do MORE damage, and kill FAR MORE innocents. And if allowed to do so, will make it even harder to change the system than it is now. They've already PUBLICLY ADMITTED that their only chance of victory is keeping people from voting. Don't play into their hands.

Under current circumstances, you know what the Dems are going to do if Biden and a bunch of other Dems lose for not being pure enough? You think they'll be all like, "Oh, no! The left sure taught us a lesson by handing the country to the GOP! We'd better shift to the left!"

No. They're going to sip champagne in their multi-million dollar mansions and have meetings about how they need to move FURTHER RIGHT to win elections, because the left doesn't vote.

And if the US becomes a military dictatorship, most of the high ranking ones will simply take their fortunes and leave.

Yup, it'd sure teach ol' Joe a lesson to force him to spend the rest of his days sipping cocktails on the Riviera.

Look beyond the single battle and think strategically. That's how the GOP keeps gaining power. And refusing to act strategically is why the left is losing. We cannot take the hill we want right now. But if we lose the hills we've already taken, we risk losing the entire goddamn war.

So fucking vote. Work to get every leftist you can in any office you can. And if you can't do that, support the one who will do the least harm.

And if it takes voting for that shitbag Biden to keep Trump and the GOP out, hold your fucking nose and pull the goddamn lever.

« Donald Trump is going to -- if he starts losing -- he's going to take everyone down with him. I mean psychologically that's what he's going to do. He's not going to want to -- he's never going to support somebody who beats him.

So, it's sort of a difficult situation for the Republicans. They have this man who needs to win at all costs basically to stay out of prison, and at the same time he's such a personality. He's a narcissistic sociopath, and he -- he is not going to let anyone else win without trying to destroy them. »

— Conservative anti-MAGA contributor to The Atlantic George Conway on CNN in conversation with Jim Acosta and David Gergen.

Trump has a Götterdämmerung aspect about him. If he can't win then he's going to take everything and everybody down with him.

Trump almost certainly won't lose the Iowa caucuses. But if his totals are below expectations, he will lash out at everybody imaginable.

Who would you rather get the GOP nomination: DeSantis or Haley?

Wendell Willkie

An Australian lawyer's view of Trump being the front runner for the GOP presidential nomination

As an Australian living in a constitutional democracy and a defence lawyer I’m finding the whole Trump saga extremely disturbing. Disturbing that an individual who has attacked democratic norms and values, sneered at the jurisdiction of the courts and justice system and attempted to destroy any or all of the tenets of democracy, freedom for minorities and common decency is the front runner for the Republican nomination for president and if successful could have all federal convictions and charges brought against him expunged or otherwise dismissed. Had Trump been subject to Australian law he wouldn’t be a contender for any political position, he’d have challenges being appointed a dog catcher because no political party in Australia would have either defended or sanctioned his behaviour and he would have most certainly been expelled from every political party, no matter how conservative or left leaning. The Republican parties blind support of Trump that could land him back in the White House is a real and present danger not just to America but to the free world and risks American alliances carefully developed and nurtured over decades since the Second World War. Careful consideration should be taken when appointing a person to such power over national security, nuclear arms and a judicial system and diplomatic network which he has already demonstrated a willingness to weaponise in his own interest.* --Richard Busuttil, Australia, commenting on a NY Times opinion column

Seen through the eyes of this Australian lawyer, the Republican Party's decision to keep backing the traitorous Trump seems not only incredibly corrupt, but foolhardy and frightening.

Trump's comeback would not be possible if a majority of prominent Republicans had denounced him--and preferably impeached him after his attempted coup.

Clearly, Trump's behavior would not have been tolerated by many people in Australia or by many people in other affluent constitutional democracies. (Even Brazil has moved faster to prosecute Bolsonaro for spreading false information about the Brazilian election system.)

The character of the American people who vote for Trump must also be in question by the people in many constitutional democracies around the world.

If the U.S. reelects Trump, America will no longer be considered a beacon for freedom and democracy, nor the leader (or even a leader) of "the free world."

We as a nation will be in freefall, moving rapidly towards autocracy and neofascism.

And the world outside the U.S. will know it, years before it finally dawns on many Americans that by voting for Trump, they helped to destroy our democratic republic.

______________ *This quote was divided into paragraphs to increase readability.

Barely a day after former President Donald Trump was indicted for the third time, some Senate Republicans are already trying to undermine the credibility of the federal judge who was randomly assigned to preside over his trial.

Here’s a detail they’re hoping you won’t notice: They unanimously voted to confirm her.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), speaking on his podcast on Wednesday, accused U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan of being “relentlessly hostile” to Trump and claimed that she has “a reputation for being far-left, even by D.C. District Court standards.”

But Cruz voted to put Chutkan into her seat on the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia in June 2014. So did every other Senate Republican when she was unanimously confirmed, 95-0.

That includes Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who nonsensically claimed Wednesday that “any conviction in D.C. against Donald Trump is not legitimate.”

“The judge in this case hates Trump,” Graham said in a Fox News interview. “You can convict Trump of kidnapping Lindbergh’s baby in D.C. You need to have a change of venue. We need a new judge. And we need to win in 2024 to stop this crazy crap.”

Aides to Cruz and Graham did not respond to requests for comment on how the senators square their votes to confirm Chutkan with their criticisms of her ability to be a fair judge.

Tuesday’s federal indictment of Trump accuses him of serious crimes related to the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.

Chutkan, a Jamaica-born former assistant public defender and an appointee of former President Barack Obama, has already been overseeing cases related to the Jan. 6 attack. She’s handed out some of the most aggressive sentences yet to rioters who took part in the violence that day. Of the 11 cases that have come before her, she imposed tougher sentences than those sought by the Justice Department seven times and matched what the Justice Department was seeking four times, according to an Associated Press review.

In all 11 cases, Chutkan sentenced the defendants to prison time.

This is what is likely driving the GOP attacks on Chutkan: They know she’s not likely to go easy on Trump now.

Beyond trying to discredit the judge, some Republicans, like Graham, are parroting Trump’s absurd demand for a change of venue. The former president has called for moving his case to the “more diverse” and “politically unbiased nearby State of West Virginia!” (Virginia and Maryland are much closer to D.C., for what it’s worth.)

Not a single Republican raised concerns about Chutkan during her nomination hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee in February 2014. In fact, only one GOP member of the committee even showed up to the hearing: Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), who was only there to rave about a separate Texas judicial nominee on the schedule. He left before Chutkan was up.

Cruz and Graham were both members of the committee at the time.

Neither attended Chutkan’s hearing.

None of this means Trump will win the presidency, or even that his full-throttle political style will help him over the next 10 months. U.S. presidential elections are notoriously unpredictable and Trump has profound political liabilities. In recent years, surveys have found that nearly half of Americans rank him among the worst presidents ever. He faces massive legal peril in four separate jurisdictions and will likely have to spend more time in a courtroom than on the campaign trail over the coming year. Millions of Americans recoil at the memory of his first term, the images of a mob in MAGA hats storming the Capitol. In November, he would need to win over skeptical voters—unlike the crowd of diehards who braved frigid sub-zero temperatures to help him claim a dominant victory Monday night.

“He's gonna do everything he says he’s gonna do,” says Tammy Hechart, a 52-year-old realtor from Ankeny, Iowa. “He's gonna fix the wall. He's gonna fix the economy. It's gonna be awesome.” Others called his victory a vindication for Trump and the MAGA movement. “It feels even sweeter that people think they can use the courts as a way to win elections,” says Natalie Blasingame, a retired teacher from Texas who traveled all the way to Iowa to see Trump, echoing his unsubstantiated claims that his indictments are designed to damage his political aspirations.

The margin of victory made it hard to see how and where his rivals were capable of unseating him. “How are they going to put a dent in him?” asked Kari Lake, the GOP Arizona Senate candidate. “Who?”

I just saw an article that said like half of trump supporters would vote for someone else if given a good option, and now all I want is someone else to get the nomination but have Trump refuse to drop out so he splits the vote. I would love nothing more than for the republicans to get 0 electoral votes…well that’s not quite true, what I would really love more than anything is for republicans to get 0 votes in general, but unless all of them forget when the election is and forget to vote for themselves that seems unlikely 😂

Basically, there is about 30 to 35% of America that is just outrageously cruel, racist, stupid, evil, and anti-everything (science, medicine, progress, voting, reason, education, history, civic society, gay people, women, non-white non-Christians, immigrants, anything that is not a fascist white nationalist theocracy) and they are beyond help. They will go down with Trump and his awful cronies to the bitter end, because they think that the primary function of government is to punish their enemies and nothing else. There is no public, social, or economic policy you can offer that will ever appeal to them, because they don't care. Nothing matters as much to them as Hurting The Other. In other words, they suck, and they are loud, dangerous, and militant, but they are not by any means the majority, they consistently suffer when their views are exposed to the mainstream public, and candidates backed by them have been regularly defeated in general elections, because they are just too extreme.

Then there are the rest of the Republican voters, who like low taxes, guns, and "small government" (aka that which doesn't run any risk of helping black people), but aren't quite the militant deranged TrumpCultists. They want a less openly criminal or at least slightly more palatable "moderate" old school GOP alternative, which has absolutely zero chance of getting past the primary-voting rancid shitgibbons mentioned above. We often get various thinkpieces wondering whether the indictments will strip these voters away from Trump, and yes, on the one hand, it is possible -- if, and only if, someone apart from him is the nominee, which for many reasons is deeply unlikely. If it is not, then anyone thinking that Republican voters will vote for anyone other than the Republican candidate, i.e. Trump, is kidding themselves. These people show up every election and vote for every R-name on the ballot. The fact that Democrats have to be wrangled and argued at so hard to do the same is one reason among many that we are in our present mess.

It is true that Trump is barely statistically viable as a candidate at this point, two-thirds of Americans think the charges (especially the J6 charges) against him are serious, and a plurality think he should suspend his presidential campaign (he won't, since it is his last chance to keep from going to jail for probably the rest of his life). It's also true that post-Dobbs, Democrats and Democratic-voting independents have been incredibly more motivated to turn out, and that Trump has never won the popular vote in any election (he only won in 2016, as we all painfully recall, because of the Electoral College). The Republicans have also consistently underperformed in every election since the Greasy Orange God King came along, and this trend is only accelerating.

None of that, again, means that we are safe or can relax or let our guard down about 2024, but it does mean that the only way these shitbags can win is by cheating up the wazoo, which they always try to do. There legitimately are not enough Americans who actually support their heinous crap to properly vote for them otherwise, and if nothing else, we can and should take comfort in that.

Donald Trump’s newly installed leadership team at the Republican National Committee on Monday began the process of pushing out dozens of officials, according to two people close to the Trump campaign and the RNC.

All told, the expectation is that more than 60 RNC staffers who work across the political, communications and data departments will be let go. Those being asked to resign include five members of the senior staff, though the names were not made public. Additionally, some vendor contracts are expected to be cut.

In a letter to some political and data staff, Sean Cairncross, the RNC’s new chief operating officer, said that the new committee leadership was “in the process of evaluating the organization and staff to ensure the building is aligned” with its vision. “During this process, certain staff are being asked to resign and reapply for a position on the team.”

The overhaul is aimed at cutting, what one of the people described as, “bureaucracy” at the RNC. But the move also underscores the swiftness with which Trump’s operation is moving to take over the Republican Party’s operations after the former president all but clinched the party’s presidential nomination last week.

Trump’s campaign took over operational control of the RNC on Monday. On Friday, former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley was elected the RNC’s new chair, and Trump daughter-in-law Lara Trump was elected as co-chair. Both had Trump’s endorsement. Additionally, Trump senior campaign adviser Chris LaCivita was named as the RNC’s new chief of staff.

Whatley is replacing Ronna McDaniel, who stepped down last week after serving more than seven years in the post. Trump and McDaniel had been longtime allies, but the former president had soured on the chairperson as of late because he felt that she was not doing enough on “voter integrity”-related issues, and because she hosted Republican primary debates that she refused to participate in.

Trump advisers have described the RNC’s structure as overly bloated and bureaucratic, which they believe has contributed to the party’s cash woes. The RNC had about $8 million at the end of December, only about one-third as much as the Democratic National Committee.

Under the new structure, the Trump campaign is looking to merge its operations with the RNC. Key departments, such as communications, data and fundraising, will effectively be one and the same.

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — New Hampshire’s attorney general on Monday ordered national Democratic party leaders to stop calling the state’s unsanctioned presidential primary “meaningless,” saying doing so violates state law.

The cease-and-desist notice came three days after the co-chairs of the Democratic National Committee’s rules committee told New Hampshire party leaders to “educate the public that January 23rd is a non-binding presidential preference event and is meaningless.” In a letter to Chairman Ray Buckley, they also called the primary “detrimental” and said “non-compliant processes can disenfranchise and confuse voters.”

But Attorney General John Formella said it’s the DNC that is in danger of harming voters. Formella, appointed by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, did not say whether he is considering criminal charges, but his office later said he hasn't ruled it out. He released a statement saying the comments amount to an illegal attempt to deter voters from participating in the primary and cited state laws against criminal solicitation and voter suppression. The latter, a felony, makes it illegal to attempt to deter someone from voting based on fraudulent, deceptive or misleading information.

“Regardless of whether the DNC refuses to award delegates to the party’s national convention based on the results of the January 23, 2024, New Hampshire democratic Presidential Primary Election, this New Hampshire election is not “meaningless,’” Formella said. Statements to the contrary are false, deceptive and misleading.”

New Hampshire’s secretary of state scheduled the primary in accordance with a state law that requires both the Republican and Democratic primaries to be held at least seven days before any similar contest. But that put the state at odds with the DNC’s calendar, which starts with a primary in South Carolina on Feb. 3 followed by Nevada. Aimed at giving Black and other minority voters a larger, earlier role, the schedule also moves Michigan into the group of early states voting before Super Tuesday on March 5, when most of the rest of the country holds primaries.

President Joe Biden, who sought the changes, kept his name off the ballot in New Hampshire, though Democrats have organized a write-in campaign on his behalf.

Republicans will kick off the nominating process with the Iowa caucus on Monday. New Hampshire’s primary eight days later will be a crucial opportunity for GOP candidates to show they can remain competitive against former President Donald Trump, the early front-runner for their party’s presidential nomination.

A spokesperson for the DNC declined to comment Monday. Buckley, the New Hampshire chairman, released a statement reiterating that the secretary of state followed the law in picking the date.

“Well, it's safe to say in New Hampshire, the DNC is less popular than the NY Yankees,” he said. “Nothing has changed, and we look forward to seeing a great Democratic voter turnout on January 23rd.”