Total 48G idol vote counts across all senbatsu elections ever held (top 64)

SC: https://twitter.com/maiyanee/status/891847506304405504

 (found this in twitter, I tough this is intersting )

Building a government

I originally posted a post in French here, which I intended to translate, and then I changed my mind and decided to create an all new post in English instead. A lot of the information from that first post will end up here, but it will be phrased differently and will have some new features.

Well, let's dig in.

(This is very long, consider yourself warned)

Credit: Assemblée Nationale

When we talk about governments in fantasy settings, we generally think royalty, kings, queens and all that jazz. But this is very reductive of all shapes of governments which have existed on Earth through all times. Even if we focus only on the Middle Ages period, not every nation was lead by a royalty. As a reminder, Middle Ages lasted from 5th to 15th centuries approximately. That's a long time!! Venise elected its first doge in 697, Florence was an oligarchy (the republic officially date from 1115), many city-states of the time had similar tradition of electing their leaders... But before we plunge into the shapes of governing, let's talk about power. 

I. Where does power come from?

(credits to Senna Lily)

Any person who leads a state needs power. It can be physical force, obviously, but there are other means:

Legitimate Power: it comes from the position or the title of the person. Basically, the person who was chosen as the chief by many people is the legitimate chief and has the power to act as such. It can also come from "divine power", a formulation used by the Kings of France to mean they got their power directly from God, or be a birth right, or a vote. Legitimate power is in direct opposition to usurped power. -> What is considered legitimate in your setting?

Coercion: the ability to punish. It's the justice system and control of the police. It's violence and threats. It is the ability to give (or refuse to give) a reward. It's a penalty. It's the ability to reduce effectively others resources. It's exile or execution. People obey, because of coercion, in the hope to get the reward, while avoiding the punishment. People who detain this power are those who command an army (generals, nobility, militia, mercenaries, police...). They may plan a Coup against the government in place if they disagree with it.

Money and Resources: it's direct and personal access to money and resources (food, materials, equipment, technology...). In addition to trade and finance, it is also the ability to raise taxes and to own land. In many feudal countries, the whole land was once said to belong entirely to the king, who then gave it to the nobility, temporarily or permanently.

Allies: the will of people to support you, which they manifest through a vote, familial or contractual webs (including treaties). Most of the time, these alliances indicate a common interest (syndicates ally to obtain a new favorable law for employees), or in the hope of future benefit (new lands and titles given by the future new king).

Credibility: can the people believe the discourse of their government? If the people are rational, they will base their judgment on expertise and reliability. In the end, credibility is a leader's ability to convince people to do as they say, through any means of communication (speech, press, even omens could have their use here...). Obviously, controlling the media directly or through alliances can be of great help to establish this credibility.

Information: access and ability to use information, even to hide it or to falsify it. Spies and fake news have their place, right here. Spreading lies can also be useful to hurt your enemies reputation, as well as to disturb or maintain the peace. -> who is the most informed person in your world? Is it your king, his advisor or his enemy?

Credit: picture from Miss Sloane, edited by @carol-danvers

II. The shapes of Government

Monarchy

Literally, monarchy means the government by one person, the monarch. Though we generally picture a royalty, it could also be a presidency (where the president has all powers: executive, legislative and judicial) or a dictatorship.

But even monarchies can present themselves in different shapes: elective (the Pope), constitutional (where a Constitution specify and/or limit the monarch's powers), parliamentary (where an assembly forms a countervailing force), or absolute.

Oligarchy

In an oligarchy, a few people govern the many. A criterion determines which few lead the nation. It can be revenue, gender, age, expertise, or a combination of all.

Oligarchies are either institutional or de facto. In the first situation, the oligarch government is formalised in the laws, and it is clear who can and who can't participate in it. In Florence, a law was created specifically to discard the nobility from the government, allowing the merchants and members of the main corporation to govern their city. 

In a de facto oligarchy, the government is progressively controlled by an elite without any formalism needed. Think about how rich people have the power to exclude others just by making things (education, means of transportation...) more costly and thus less accessible to the many.

Democracy

The government by the people can be exercised directly or indirectly. Directly, everyone (some limits, such as age, can be implemented) votes for every decision. Indirectly, everyone elect representatives who then vote for every decision. You can also find democracies which mix both system, where certain decisions must be taken by everyone, while others are left to their representatives.

I mentioned only age as a limit, as it is an obvious one (people need to be able to understand the decision they’re making), but there are others. Nationality comes to mind. Just be careful not to limit citizenship too much or you could end up with a government who is a democracy in name only, like Athens was.

Empires (a side note)

Technically, empires are not a form of government. They are defined by the union of more than one people or country under a centralised power (some definitions also add expansion ambitions, and feelings of superiority). Though most infamous examples generally are monarchies, empires could very well be oligarchies or democracies.

Empires who lasted the longest had an ideology under which they could rally their population, mostly with a common religion (Christianism for the roman empire, Islam for the caliphates, Orthodoxy in Russia, Catholicism for the Habsburg...). But, though their shared ideology strengthened them, no empire ever lasted millenniums.

III. The Ideology

Every government subscribes to a certain set of ideologies, which shapes the laws and regulations they chose to implement over the people they govern.

Patriarchy / Matriarchy / Egalitarian society

(Please note, this part might give the impression, there are only two genders. My intention is not to erase non binary, genderfluid or genderqueer people, but to keep things simple, so in advance: I am sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings).

Patriarchy and matriarchy happen when one gender take over the control of the totality or the majority of the power sources. The government will be lead by people of the dominating gender, so will be companies and religions. Values associated with the gender in power will be admired by society and laws will reinforce their status. If a person of the dominating gender shows qualities which are perceived to belong to the dominated one, they will be put on the ban of society and seen as a deviant (and same thing the other way around, btw), making them unlikely to hold any power unless they also happen to possess some useful resources or relationships.

If you create a matriarchy, please, by all means, do not make it a mirror of a patriarchy. What I mean is, don't have women be warriors and men take care of the children. Instead, have pregnant women keep their government position without it ever being questioned, have laws which regulate the men bodies, have contraceptive drugs for men only, have values such as quietness and moderation as the highest ones, have physical strength seen as debased, have dismissive comments about men and their testosterone, have jobs associated with women seen as the most valuable (like nursing or teaching) and with the highest earnings, consider not having a marriage per say as there can be no question of who is a child's mother...   

As for egalitarian societies, they should not have any gender dominating the other, and so a government should have parity. Non-gendered inheritance laws should already exist. If your society is egalitarian, but its government is 70% male, I will call you a liar. Or you better come up with a good justification other than "women prefer to take care of their home". In such a society, a profession can still be seen as lower, not because it is mostly occupied by one gender, but because it is associated with another taboo (think about jobs in relation with death in Japan). Laws will reflect equality between genders, either by having them forcibly inclusive (which could indicate society was not all always egalitarian), or by having them implicitly inclusive through the use of a genderless language*.

* I am not saying the language of a society, which was always egalitarian, is necessary genderless, but that the law will use words which erase gender: instead of man/woman, you'll use person/citizen.

Capitalism / Socialism

Though capitalism and socialism are the two antonymous economic systems, most States have implemented mixed systems, leaning more on one side of the equation than the other depending from the set of values their leaders adhere to. All States, even the most liberal, are forced to embrace some social values as the only mean to ensure the creation and maintenance of basic infrastructures such as roads.

In capitalism, all the means of production are privately owned in the aim of profit. In consequence, investments are decided by the owners of resources and, in theory, prices and distribution are decided through competition. Other common characteristics to capitalist systems include: accumulation of capital, waged labor, price system, competitive markets, voluntary exchange (often formalized with a contract).

Different models of capitalism exist. Corporate capitalism is dominated by hierarchical and bureaucratic corporations. In State capitalism, the state-owned companies dominate the market where they seek to make profits. Advanced capitalism is our global modern system characterized by the concentration of activities in a few large firms or groups, a reliance on the State to stabilize the markets, and wages used as incentives. Financial capitalism is dominated by the people who own the funds (the banks or private loaners) and generally born from a commercial capitalism...

Socialism was first and foremost thought as the opposite of individualism. Other words have been used to qualify a socialist economy, such as co-operative, mutualist, associationist and communist. The distinction between socialism and communism only date from the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917.

Obviously, because of the way it was constructed, socialism is very critic of capitalism. Its main reproaches are the creation of wasteful industries and practices, a will to create demand instead of satisfying the pre-existing one, the pursuit of irrational activities which results in economic bubbles and the concentration of power and wealth in the hands of a few people.

Socialism’s goal is to reduce poverty, social oppression, and disparities in wealth. To accomplish this, it puts community first and encourage the shared ownership of resources. Its main means are economic planning and scientific administration. It also tries to achieve, through incentives coming from the top (i.e. the government) a social environment which would be more favorable to the system.

Finally, socialism also considers creativity to be essential to human nature, and one of the finality of this ideology is to reduce the length of labor to ensure everybody has the time to engage in their creativity.

Fascism / Nationalism

Though both ideologies have a few things in common, they are not one and the same. Also, not everybody agree on what past governments should be called fascist (some suggest that Nazi Germany is not, some say it is...).

Nationalism is, for a people, to preserve or gain sovereignty over its "homeland" (the limits of said homeland may go beyond what the people of the nation inhabit and result in expansionist strategies). Nationalism implies the definition of a national identity with its culture, its language, its religion, its belief in a singular history. Generally leaders of such a movement/State will talk about a cultural renewal (or its preservation), and use rallying symbols recognizable by all (such as flags, anthems, clothes...).

Let’s note, it is possible to imagine a multinational nationalist State, where every national minority would be able to express freely its national identity (with even the possibility of having representatives for each minority). The feeling of unity, of a nation would emerge from the will of the people to continue to live together in a multicultural society. Common symbols would reflect the diversity of its people.

As for fascism, though we find the same mythic core and use of symbols, it distinguishes itself from nationalism by its inherently violent nature. Indeed, fascism consider that not all violence is negative and that political violence, war and imperialism can bring national rejuvenation.

Fascism is also characterized by the suppression of all opposition, often with the complicity of the elites in place, by a mixed economy to attain the goal of self-sufficiency through protectionism and interventionist policies, by military citizenship where everybody’s role is well defined and masculinity is promoted, by self-determined culture and victimhood to oppose a previous period of decadence (often imaginary) and give birth to a cult of unity and purity, which can only be achieved through the purge of the "degenerates".

Religion

Religion and power instances have been intertwined throughout History, either by the interpretation of omens (such as flying birds) before an important decision, or by providing advisors to the State (Mazarin and Richelieu’s names come to mind), or by establishing a temporal State lead by a timeless authority (the Vatican).

Religion have permeated our cultures and our laws. Even secular States, such as modern France, are still under the influence of religion. Breaking away from it has required social changes followed or paralleled by legal changes.

Sometimes, these changes have merely reflected the passing of a religion’s influence in favor of another (the Roman empire was polytheist before embracing christianism).

What taboo, what family structure are seen as prominent by the dominant religion will very likely be reflected in the laws and in the government structures. Furthermore, in the presence of a well organized religion, such as the Catholic Church, one must acknowledge not only its moral power, but also its economical one. It is not without good reason the French Revolution chose to abolished all Church’s privileges (suppression of a special tax, nationalization of its properties...).

Conservatism / Progressivism

Conservatism is defined, first and foremost, by its attachment to traditions. Obviously, depending of where and when, what people call traditions may look very different. A conservative government will do its best to keep the statu quo, to slow changes and transformations, especially social and economic ones. Conservatism also embrace organic solidarity (born from the specialisation of economic actors and forcing them to collaborate because of their interdependence), stability and continuity, as well as the defence of property rights.

When conservatism tends to radicalism, its discourse will change from maintaining the traditions, to their regeneration, implying the model (often idealised past) has been lost and needs to be restored for the wellbeing of society.

On the other hand, progressivism embrace change and reforms as a way to improve society. It encourages changes at all levels (social, economic, scientific, technologic...) as the one and only way to improve human condition. This definition may give you the impression progressivism is necessarily better, but let's not forget that, in the past, it has been associated with eugenics and alcohol prohibition. What is seen as progressive depends greatly on what is perceive as tradition in your universe.

In all honesty, I could keep talking about ideologies, because they are so diverse and cover so many subjects. In the end, you should remember only two points when it comes to ideology : how your government think society should work, and how it intends to achieve that ideal.

Resources

Links: - 16 types of governments infography - List of forms of governments on Wikipedia - Ted-Ed Athenian Democracy - On Mythcreants: Matriarchies, patriarchies and beyond, Creating matriarchies - Amazing series about politics by Senna Lily “Politics : The Game, The Board, The Players” - 1st part (credits go to her for the first part of this article)

a few articles by @wondrousworldbuilding about Politics and about Factions,

Books: (I could not find translations for the titles in French) - Nouveau manuel de science politique, Editions La Découverte (a class book for politic sciences, very heavy, maybe start with something else to read on the subject) - La cité dans le monde grec, Raoul Lonis, Editions Armand Colin (3rd part mostly) - The prince, Machiavelli - Bréviaire des politiciens, Cardinal Mazarin, Editions Arléa - The Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels - The Analects, Confucius - The Spirit of the Laws, Montesquieu - The Art of War, Sun Tzu (the book talks about war strategies, but they can  apply to other contexts, including politics) - The Republic, Plato - Politics, Aristotle

you can find a pretty nice goodreads list here, it references a lot of classics about politics.

Final Words

If you're still here, congratulations, you're done !!

I merely wanted to write one last thing: if you have questions, you can drop me a message anytime. It doesn't matter if your question is directly related to this post or not, or if it is something very specific in relation to the politics of your universe. I may not be an expert on the subject but I'm more than willing to give you my two cents, if you need help :)

I'm shamelessly tagging a few people. Feel free to hate me for that :) but I'd love to see this post spread a little, and alas Tumblr will not reference it because it contains external links... so here we go: @writingtipsandtricks @the960writers   @writers-all-around @lets-get-fictional @legit-writing-tips @writingadvice365

People who asked to be tagged (thank you, love you!!): @thewordsinthesky-andstars @kainablue @mistbornvinventure @starlitesymphony @kittensartsbooks @cawolters @quiescentwriting @elaynab-writing @writingwordsanddrawingpictures @taohuawrites @diaartz @cirianne @chalilodimun

WIP Introduction // The Ark

Could he ever have been truly happy, surrounded by people he couldn’t trust? Being aware of so much suffering that he had the means to stop? Doing nothing would have killed him just as much as doing something did.

Genre: Dystopian, sci-fi, action, adventure, romance

Themes: Survival, rebellion, betrayal, political corruption/commercialisation

POV: First person (Astrid Wyatt)

Status: Hopefully final draft in progress rewrites, rewrites everywhere

Summary: In the year 2325 the natural world is no longer habitable, the government has been all but privatised, shares have become the new voting and the 15 billion strong population has been crammed into a single man-made continent.

Space is a luxury many are beginning to find they cannot afford.

When her father’s body is discovered, Astrid is hunted for what she might know about his work. Putting her trust in strangers, she must piece together the connection between her Dad’s murder, a rehabilitation project, and the possibility that the old world was not left uninhabited after all.

Character intros and more excerpts to come (please let me know if you would like to be added to the tag list)

Excerpt continues below the cut (900 words total), warning this includes some mild violence.

Fabia folded her arms and leaned back against the tank. “This was his battle, I’m sure even now he would have wanted you to stay well away from all this.”

“I don’t think that’s for you to decide,” I snapped, anger fluttering in my stomach. “Whether he wanted it or not, I’m involved.”

“I know you are, but you should really be laying low for a bit. They have an unlimited points bounty on your head, and they don’t give away those kinds of rewards easily.”

The implications in her voice were thick, but I didn’t quite catch her point. Reading my lack of understanding she continued, “They are obviously desperate to bring you in, what does that say?”

My chest tightened. “They think I’m a threat.”

“And,” she added meaningfully, “they will be relentless in hunting you down.”

I tried to ignore the chilling edge to her voice. “I can’t just do nothing. Not if I’m in a position to help.”

Her face fell. “That’s what Alistair said.”

I swallowed back a surge of emotion. It left an unmovable stone wedged in my throat.

Delta, who had been silently rolling the champagne bottle over her ribs until this moment, chipped in. “The world is Zenith’s. Astrid isn’t ever going to be safe—whether she’s laying low or fighting this. But what she does as a fugitive is her choice.” She gave me a small smile. “And you should know that if you don’t help us, we’ll just keep trying other leads.”

There was a long pause as Fabia took a deep breath. “Alright.” Her eyes flew heavenwards. “Your dad was creating a very serious type of malware. He never shared the details with me, but I do know he was working on it with an old colleague.” Her brow puckered. “I could never forgive myself if this leads you to your death.”

I barely knew her, and yet I could see how much she cared.  I had no doubt she must have loved Dad very much. “There’s bigger things than me at stake here,” I pressed with a forced half-smile.  

She gave a nod of understanding. “Rus Finnlay—he’s a lecturer now. If anyone knows about the malware, it’d be him.”

I retrieved my PEP gun from the bed and helped Delta to her feet, grabbing the two hov-bike helmets, and fastening one over my head.

“Thank you,” I said to Fabia before snapping closed the mirrored visor.

She grabbed my arm as I started to lead Delta away. “Trust no one,” she hissed, “everyone has a price, and Zenith will always be the highest bidder. Your dad was always cautious, but I find myself wondering if he said something to the wrong person somewhere along the way.”

I frowned though she couldn’t see it. “You’re saying someone sold him out?”

Delta opened the apartment door and stepped out. A thundering pair of footsteps echoed down the hall. The action of lifting my PEP and shooting the approaching ZenSecure guard square in the chest was almost robotic. Only when the pulse blasted him into the wall opposite, did my mind break free of the hazy fallout from Fabia’s bombshell.

“Stairwell,” Delta ordered, the threat of attack momentarily curing her limp. She pulled on her black helmet, and flicked down the visor just as I had.

We jogged silently down the stairs. I took the lead for once, travelling unchallenged the entire way down to the basement carpark. We dashed through the doors and practically into the arms of two waiting guards.

We had really half-assed this plan.

The first blow to my stomach knocked all the air from me, and I staggered backwards wheezing. My eyes darted to Delta who had turned the champagne bottle she was carrying into a weapon as she smashed it down over the other guard’s head.

I gasped and sidestepped another swing from my guard. Before he could fully retract, I sprang at him, smashing my helmet into his face with all the force I could manage. The impact jarred my neck and the crack of his nose against my helmet reverberated through to my ears.

He fell to the ground with a grunt, pawing at his nose. I wiped the smear of blood from my visor in time to see the second guard go down as Delta rammed the broken neck of her champagne bottle into his stomach.

“Holy shit.” I tried to look away from him, but I knew the image was already burned into my mind. He was screaming.

We bolted to the bikes. Delta’s shaking hands slipping and smearing blood over the handle bars as she mounted her hov.

“You alright to drive?” I couldn’t tell if it was the pain or shock of having just gutted someone that had her shaken.

“I’m fine.” She started her bike and zipped out ahead of me. As I followed her up the winding ramp toward street level, the sound of the guard’s pained shrieks faded behind us.

Current Narratives Have This In Common

“World domination. Same old dream.” ~Ian Fleming

VACCINE MANDATES -- population control

CLIMATE CHANGE -- global control

CARBON OFFSETS -- commercial control

EV/AUTONOMOUS DRIVING -- crowd control

ESG -- social control

AI/METAVERSE -- mind control

CRYPTOCURRENCY -- financial control

EXPONENTIAL AGE -- speculation control

INTERNET/CLOUD COMPUTING -- information control

SOCIAL MEDIA -- communication control

ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES -- political control

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION -- total control

I am increasingly viewing these narratives as part of a broader agenda.

Just like in commodity markets where the best cure for high prices is high prices, if you want to know someone’s true intentions, the counter-intuitive thing is to “give ‘em enough rope” so that their overconfidence causes them to step too far. 

Using the global pandemic as cover, the overlords have stepped wayy too far.

It’s therefore encouraging to see ordinary people in every corner of the globe soundly rejecting authoritarian overreach.

So, how do we trade this mess?

I’ve long thought the best answer, dripping with the wisdom of history, comes from famed investor Jim Rogers:

In all my years in investing, there’s one rule I’ve prized beyond every other. Always bet against central banks and with the real world. Central banks and governments always try to maintain artificial levels, high or low, whether of a currency, a metal, wool, whatever. Usually these prices are absurd, and the market knows they’re absurd. When a central bank is defending something, the smart investor always goes the other way. It may take a while, but I promise you you’ll come out ahead. It’s a golden rule of investing. Violent movement happens whenever a price has been kept high or low.

~Jim Rogers, Investment Biker

Central banks have kept asset prices high for decades.  I believe their luck is running out. 

I therefore do not agree that we are entering the Exponential Age made popular by Cathy Wood and Raoul Pal. I believe we’ve already experienced most of it.

I believe the real world, as Rogers calls it, is getting ready to return, and that the credit cycle will triumph over Metcalf’s Law. 

Fractional-reserve banking, Zero Interest Rate Policy, collateral rehypothecation, collateral transformation, margin, leverage, liquidity, prime brokerage, all this has enabled decades of exponential gains in global asset prices.

One might even argue that it has also encouraged unbridled expansion of power and control by governments and elites. 

The social mood aspects here are fascinating. If someone would have predicted years ago that people would voluntarily participate in the surveillance society, I would have said No Way. Yet here they are embracing every aspect of it. So perhaps exponential gains have produced (or have been produced by) exponentially high social mood.

Gum up the works with an interest rate shock, and these wonderfully benevolent network effects and social mood extremes can swing in reverse, causing what rock ‘n’ roll poet Jim Carroll called wicked gravity.

Should the real world return via the credit cycle, violent movement will happen.

How would I trade it? Long puts sprinkled across the entire financial asset spectrum. Long gold and silver. Long VIX calls and call ladders. Long cash in a variety of currencies with leveraged FX pairs as trading positions. And I would keep as low a profile as possible.

I would also treat Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the 10,000 other crypto currencies as Dot-Com rejects for at least a year or two, as I don’t think computer code would be considered kindly as real world intrinsic value.

As with wampum, only time will tell.

What is mining and what is it for - End of mining in 2019

In recent years, a decline in the popularity of such a phenomenon as the mining of digital currencies has been noticeable. This is due to several factors, for example: the increasing complexity of the process; high cost of equipment; low profitability; long payback period. The already expiring year 2018 was accompanied by numerous opinions that mining has already outlived its usefulness and that this activity can be really effective only for large companies with huge computing power and budget. What is mining and what is it for? Before you figure out what mining is for, you should decide on the concept of cryptocurrencies and mining itself. Cryptocurrencies are digital or electronic money that is decentralized and not backed by physical values. In other words, it is a modern medium of exchange, transactions with which are carried out within a certain network, where users are connected. All transaction data is stored within this network, and the information is distributed evenly, rather than being subordinate to a particular specific center. Digital money is presented in the form of electronic coins, but they are not endless, since there is such a concept - the emission of cryptocurrencies. Each type of cryptocurrency has a limit limited by the volume of units, upon reaching which new coins will no longer appear. This is the answer to the question when mining will end. So what is mining, the end of which comes when the emission is reached? Mining is the decryption of these blocks using complex computational algorithms. These blocks contain information about past network operations based on the preceding blocks. Thus, in the blockchain network, where all the blocks are located, blocks are regularly formed that contain encrypted data. This network can have branches, but it is also self-regulating. According to certain principles laid down by the developers of the coin, it is possible to calculate the block in order to eventually receive a reward in the form of new coins. There is a certain parameter that, when certain conditions are met, increases the difficulty of solving blocks. Therefore, the closer the total mined amount of coins is to the final limit, the more difficult it will be to mine each new unit. Accordingly, not only the value of the coins will increase, but also the cost of their extraction. In some cases, mining may not even be economically viable and lead to losses. Market problems that have arisen As of 2018-2019, in the mining industry for ordinary users, there are a lot of problems and unpleasant factors, conditions. The most famous and strongest problems in the field of mining can be imagined: - Downtime... In most cases, mining therefore implies a considerable payback period for equipment and investments. The standard term is one and a half years, but not infrequently it can exceed two years. In view of heavy loads and the need for uninterrupted operation, which overloads the equipment during operation, the risk of damage to ASIC and video adapters, power supplies and other components are large enough. In the event of a breakdown, in addition to the cost of repair and restoration, the miner will also be idle, which automatically deprives him of profit and increases the payback period. - Communication problem... Miners and the efficiency of their activities depend on many factors, for example, on a stable Internet connection and power supply. From time to time, failures in the work of these communications happen for various reasons, which also causes downtime and a decrease in profitability. - Equipment Race... In mind constantly growing complexity the process of mining and the prevalence of this phenomenon among the population, hardware developers every year try to release even more powerful and, accordingly, expensive types of equipment. Thus, in order to keep up with modern trends and not lose efficiency, many miners are forced to replace old equipment with new ones. - Placement problem... Mining on an ordinary computer has become the last century for a long time. Those who really set themselves the goal of making money on the mining of cryptocurrencies have switched to mining farms based on GPU video adapters or ASIC... Such a complex takes up a lot of space, emits a lot of heat and noise. It is often very difficult to maintain such a structure in an apartment, and you have to find a suitable and safe separate room. - High cost and payback period... As mentioned above, mining equipment not only costs a lot, but also constantly rises in price. Top-end video cards now cost over one thousand dollars, and ASICs are several times more expensive. In addition, the miner is also spent on other components, paying bills and many other related costs. - Forks... In the cryptocurrency world, in practice, it is not uncommon for a particular cryptocurrency to change the source code and receive a new, alternative version. Many cryptocurrency developers and initiators of such forks, for their own reasons, do not provide an opportunity to mine a new coin using ASICs. This puts the owners of such devices at a very disadvantage. - Course fluctuation... As you know, cryptocurrency rates can be subject to large fluctuations, both short and long-term. Thus, over a certain period, you can enrich yourself many times over, or, on the contrary, the bills for mining payments can exceed the fallen coin rate. Industry development perspective Mining Bitcoin Many who are currently engaged in the production of digital currencies are interested in the future prospects of mining. Of course, the emission of bitcoin is still far from exhaustion, and therefore regarding the value of coins in the future, a lot of diverse forecasts are built. Some argue that the cost will hit record highs that were recorded at the end of 2017. Other analysts promise much greater growth in the cryptocurrency market and one million dollar bitcoin by 2020. For those who still want to have time to join the ASIC or GPU mining, the best solution would be budget mining on an AMD video card. Ethereum and altcoin mining Mining Ethereum has always been a profitable activity from the very beginning of the launch of this coin, which is not you can say about many other and less promising altcoins. Thus, the end of ether mining has not yet come, and experts give mostly ambiguous, but generally encouraging forecasts. Those who do not focus on the leading coins, where the bulk of the power and funds is concentrated, can be recommended to pay attention to the smaller and undervalued cryptocurrencies. It is they who can bring hundreds of percent of profit in case of unpredictable growth, and in case of falls, losses will not be so significant. Is it worth starting Of course, almost everyone has heard about cryptocurrencies, but not everyone decides to enter this area and start earning. Many newbies are interested in what the potential income from mining is and whether it is worth starting to do it now. Mining income is a value that can only be predicted on an average, since it depends on many factors and, above all, on the chosen cryptocurrency. If the user has an idle computer or funds to purchase all the necessary powerful equipment, then it is quite possible to start mining. Despite the fact that the cryptocurrency market is very volatile, the cost of equipment and the complexity of mining are growing, mining is still one of the most profitable ways to make money on cryptocurrency.... Of course, there are risks of its own, but they are no more than, for example, in trading on exchanges cryptocurrency. Those who have a small budget or do not want to delve into all the intricacies of mining can start investing in cloud mining and receive income on full liability. Subscribe to our resources and read comments, sometimes smart people write smart things there. Subscribe to news AltCoinLog v Vkontakte Related materials: Readers Rating: 100% 1 votes Read the full article

The revival of American brewing

A historical look & opinion piece on American breweries and their reintegration into pop culture

The history of American brewing – When you stop and think about it, there is really only one drink that sums up American culture. Any guesses? If you said beer, you my friend would be correct. In fact, beer has been brewed in America since before it was officially called America. Back in 1587, some of the very first Virginia colonists began using corn to brew their first Ale’s. Fast-forward to 1632, the West India Trading Company built a then state of the art, brewery in what was then known as New Amsterdam. This region is now currently known as New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut.

By 1754, brewing had become so popular in America that George Washington himself entered a brewing recipe into his own personal journal. In 1810, brewing had become so popular that there was a grand total of 132 breweries operating within the United States. Said breweries were producing a staggering 185,000 barrels worth of beer for a country whose population was nearly seven million strong.

A buttload of beer barrels

In 1846, the first major blow to brewing hits the state of Maine after the State level Government votes to pass the nation’s first prohibition laws. More states follow suit in the coming decades. By 1866, beer has become a federally taxed good/product. Nearing the end of the 19th century, there were thousands of breweries to be found all over the United States. So, it seemed that the widespread prohibition laws that had swept a large part of the nation had little effect on the Beer industry.

However, by 1910 modernism and it’s production/manufacturing capabilities had shrunk the amount of breweries to around 1,500 countrywide. Come January 1920, and the Federal Government’s war against liquor began. Simultaneously, the roaring 20’s gave birth to an exorbitant amount of Speakeasies throughout the Nation. Come 1933, and the Federal Government legalizes liquor sales once again. By June of that same year, 31 large breweries had reopened their doors. Just one year later in 1934, there were now 756 breweries back in operation.

Anti-prohibition rally

American beer experienced another change between 1941 and 1945. During that time, the United States was at war with Germany, Japan, and Italy. This meant that any willing and able men were shipped halfway around the world. Thus, a large number of women had to pickup a great number of the jobs that their husbands, brothers, and fathers had previously occupied. In fact, many women had picked up jobs at the local factories in order to contribute to the war fighting machine.

As it turned out, a large number of these women began drinking beer after a long and exhausting day at work. Said women quickly realized that they didn’t particularly care for the hoppy taste that was in beer during the time. Since these women were now a large part of the target market within the beer industry, companies like Anheuser Busch and Pabst Brewing Company adjusted the amount of hops that was present within their beers. Effectively lowering its hops quantity be nearly two thirds! 

American women working in a factory

This major change did two things to the American brewing industry. First, by lowering the amount of hops that was present in American beer, it allowed companies to brew more beer and at a lower cost. However, the cost savings would never be seen by the American populace. In fact, the price of beer would continue to rise in the following decades. Second, because the larger American breweries were using nearly one third of the original amount of hops to brew a bear, a great deal of the flavor was lost for decades. That is until the Federal Government legalized home brewing in 1978. By legalizing home brewing, the Federal Government had essentially put the fate of beer back into the hands of the American people. In the 1990’s and 2000’s craft brewing had become so popular that it wasn’t uncommon to have a friend who brewed their own beer at home.

By 2001, Americans were loving their beer so much that there was just over 1,400 breweries within the United States. Just 100 short of the total amount of breweries before prohibition circa 1910. Fast-forward to the end of 2019, and there are more than 8,000 breweries within the United States. Making it safe to say that Americans are currently living in the Renaissance of beer!      

Current day beer culture – There is no question that America is the epicenter of beer and brewing in the 21st century. However, America is a very diverse country that is filled with all kinds of people who have varying opinions when it comes to beer and what it is that makes a good beer. For example, there is a large number of people within the United States that enjoy what I like to call post WWII American beer. You know, the kind of beer that a person would shotgun at a Fraternity party? Names like Busch Light, Bud Light, and Michelob Golden Light come to mind. Said beers feature far less hops which results in a lite or almost flavorless taste, while also coming in at a somewhat cheaper price point when compared to craft beers for example. Said beers are still enjoyed by millions of people around the United States.

Frat guys doing their frat things

However, with everything in life there is the polar opposite. I’m talking about the kind of beer that a connoisseur or a hobbyist wouldn’t mind paying a little bit of extra cash for (myself included). You know, the kind of beer that comes from your local brewery down the street. Said local breweries create every kind of beer under the sun. So I guess the question is, where to start? Well, there is Surely Brewing Co, Summit Brewing Co, and New Glarus Brewing Co just to name a very select few that are in the Midwest. All of which are still originally owned and operated by the way. Thus, making them direct competitors to the American classics such as Anheuser Busch and Miller Brewing Co. Then you have the different types of beers including but not limited to: Stout’s, IPA’s, Lager’s, Belgium Bitters, Ale’s, etc. All of which are types of beers that are currently brewed by companies both small and large within the beer industry.  

You see, craft brewing in the 21st century isn’t necessarily concerned with your feelings or what you think a beer should be. Craft brewing is about trying new brews, experimenting with different ingredients, and sharing the end result with your family, friends, neighbors, and customers. Home brewing and craft brewing offers people the opportunity to improve on an original recipe, or to create something entirely new altogether. No longer are Americans stuck with Budweiser and their tasteless watered-downed product (yes, that’s how I really feel). Instead, people have the opportunity to improve, grow, and innovate within the beer industry. 

Craft Beer

So whether you prefer Busch Lite while watching the Super Bowl. Or grabbing a case of Surely Furious to watch the PGA tour with your friends. Couldn’t we all agree that the resurgence of craft and home brewing is good news for anyone that just likes a nice cold glass of beer?     

If image is censored how about words?

The banned lecture:

GILLES de RAIS

THE BANNED LECTURE

Long ago when King Brahmadatta reigned in Benares, a gentleman whose Christian names were Thomas Henry – you possible have heard of him – he was no less a personage than Grandfather of the great Aldous Huxley – once found himself threatened be a predicament similar to that in which I stand tonight.  He had been asked to lecture a distinguished group of people.

            What bothered him was this: what assumption was he to make about the existing knowledge of the audience?  He adopted the sensible course of asking the advice of an old hand at the game; and was told, “You must do one of two things.  You may assume that they know everything, or that they know nothing.”  Thomas Henry thought it over, and decided that he would assume that they know nothing.

            I think that merely shows how badly brought up he must have been; and explains how it was that he became a kirty little atheist, and repented on his death-bed, and died blaspheming.  Gilles de Raise was born sometime in 1404.  He married Catherine de Thonars on the 30th of November 1420, arrest by the Church.  He began alchemical studies under the instruction of Gilles de Sille, a priest of St. Malo. Montague Summers believes he sacrificed around eight hundred children and quotes the proceedings of ecclesiastical high court in which a Dominican priest named Jean Blouyn took over as the delegate of the Holy Inquisition for the city and diocese of Nantes.  Needless to say, Gilles “confessed”, and was put on the stake and charcoaled on October 26th, 1440 leaving his estates and untold riches to Mother Church, who, wasting no time, added them to her list of material gains.  Included in this particular catch were Gilles personal hand-painted manuscripts, which were eagerly welcomed into the Mother Lode’s vault where they sit to this day.  Unfortunately, the Vatican’s library is inaccessible to “common folk”, and will probably remain so until the demise of Mother Church herself, at which time this author will assist other interested persons in converting it into a public library.

No!  No!  That would be quite impossibly bad manners.  I shall assume that you know everything about Gilles de Rais; and that being the case, it would evidently be impertinent for me to tell you anything about him.  So that we can consider the lecture at an end, and (after the usual vote of thanks) pass on immediately to the discussion, which I think ought to be more amusing, if scarcely as informative.

It is rather hard saying--however worthy of all acceptation in a university like Oxford, where, I understand, the besetting sin of the inmates is lecturing and being lectured, but discussions are always apt to turn out to be amusing, especially if conducted with blackthorns to shotguns, where as lecturing is merely an attempt, foredoomed to failure, to communicate knowledge which usually the lecturer does not posses.

I am sure that we all recognize that an attempt of this kind is impossible in nature in nature.  No!  I am not proposing to inflict upon you my celebrated discourse on Skepticism of the Instrument of Midn.  I am not even going to refer to the first and last lecture which I suffered at a dud university somewhere near Newmarket, in the specimen of old red sandstone in rostrum began by remarking that political economy was a very difficult subject to theorize upon because there were no reliable data.  Never would I tell so sad a story on a Monday evening, with the idea of Tuesday already looming darkly n every melancholic mind.  I should like to be just friendly and sensible, though it is perhaps too much to expect me to be cheerful.

The fact is that I am in a very depressed state.  My attention was attracted by that little work “knowledge” of which we hear so much and see so little.  I don’t propose to inflict upon you the M.C.H., and demonstrate that the life and opinions of Gilles de Rais were inevitably determined by the price of onions in Hyderabad.  But I do think that in approaching a historic question, we should be very careful to define what we mean—in our particular universe of discourse—by the work “knowledge.”

May I ask a question?

            Does anyone here know the date of the battle of Waterloo?

            Pause- - (Someone - - I bet - - tells me “1815.”)

            Thank you very much.  To be frank with you, I know it myself.  I did not require information on that particular point.  What I asked was, whether anyone knows the date.  I felt that, if so it would have created a sympathetic atmosphere.

            But since we are talking about Waterloo, we may ask ourselves what, roughly speaking, is the extent of our knowledge?

            I have heard plenty of theories about why Napoleon lost the battle.  I have been told that he was already suffering from the disease, which killed him.  I have been told that he was outgeneraled by Wellington.  I have been told that his army of conscripts was underfed and not properly drilled.  I have also been told that the battle was won by the Belgians.

Now, all these things are merely matters of opinion.  There may be a little truth in some of them.  But we have practically no means of finding out exactly how much, even if our documentary support is valid to establish any of these theories.  It is, also, almost impossible to estimate the causes of any given event, if only because those causes are infinite, and each one of them is to a certain extent an efficient determining cause.

            Take a quite simple matter like the time of year.  If it had been winter instead of summer, the hens would not have been laying and Hougomont and La Haye Sainte would not have been able to nourish the contending forces.  But though it is profitable for the soul to contemplate the extent of what we don’t know, it is in some ways more satisfying to our baser natures to consider what we do know in a reasonable sense of the word.

            It is not disputable that the battle of Waterloo was fought and won.  It is not disputable that it was the climax, or rather the denouncement, of campaigns lasting over a number of years.  And there is no reason for doubting that Napoleon was born in Corsica, that he entered the French army, and rose rapidly to power by a combination of military genius and political intrigue.

            There is a vast body of indirect evidence, which confirms these statements at every point.  Taken as a whole, they would be totally inexplicable on any other hypothesis.  But when we consider the character of Napoleon, we are at once involved in a mass of contradictions.  Probably no one in history has been more discussed, and every writer gives a totally different account.  Each seeks to buttress his opinion by incidents, which we have no reason to suppose other than authentic, but seem incongruous.  So far as we can get any truth out of the matter at all, it is that the character of Napoleon, like that of everybody who ever lived, was extremely complex.  And the writers are more or less in the position of the Six Wise Men of Hindustan who were born blind and had to describe an elephant.

            Spiritually fortified by these simple meditations, we may apply their fruits to the problem of Gilles de Rais, and ask ourselves what we really know about him as opposed to what we have heard about him.

            We know that he was a gentleman of good family, because otherwise he could not have held the offices, which he did hold.  We know that he was a brave soldier, and a comrade of Joan of Arc.  We know that he had a passion for science; for the basis of his reputation was that he frequented the society of learned men.  We know finally that he was accused of the same crimes as Joan of Arc by the same people who accused her, and that he was condemned by them to the same penalty.

            I do not think that I have left out any verifiable fact.  I think that all the rest amounts to speculation.  The real problem of Gilles de Rais amounts, accordingly, to this.  Here we have a person who, in almost every respect, was the make equivalent of Joan of Arc.  Both of them have gone down in history.  But history is somewhat curious.  I am still inclined to think that “there ain’t no sick animal.”  In the time of Shakespeare, Joan of Arc was accepted in England as a symbol for everything vile.  He makes her out not only as a sorceress, but a charlatan and hypocrite; and on tope of that a coward, a liar, and a common slut.  I suspect that they began to whitewash here when they decided that she was a virgin, that is a sexually deranged, or at least incomplete, animal, but the idea has always got people going, as any student of religion know.  Anyway, her stock went up to the point of canonization.  Gilles de Rais, on the other hand, is equally a household work fro monstrous vices and crimes.  So much so, that his is even confused with fabulou8s figure of Bluebeard, of whom, even were he real, we know nothing much beyond that he reacted in the most manly way to the problem of domestic infelicity.

            A moment’s digression; in fact, the main point.  What is the most precise and most atrocious charge that is made against him?  That he sacrificed, in the course of alchemical and magical experiments, a matter of 300 children?  I submit that, a priori, this sounds a little improbable.  Gilles de Rais was the lord of a district whose population would not have been very extensive, and even in that age of slavery, dirt, disease, debauchery, poverty and ignorance, which seems to Mr. G. K. Chesterton the one ideal state of society, it must have been a little difficult to carry out abductions and murders on such wholesale principles.

            Whenever questions arise with regard to black magic or black masses, invocations of the devil, etc., etc., it must never be forgotten that these practices are strictly functions of Christianity.  Where ignorant savages perform propitiatory rites, there and there only Christianity takes hold.  But under the great systems of the civilized parts of the world, there is no trace of any such perversion in religious feeling.  It is only the bloodthirsty and futile Jehovah who has achieved such monstrous births.  Such up as-trees can only grow in the poisonous mire of fear and shame where thought has putrefied to Christianity.

            There is thus no antecedent improbability that Gilles de Rais (or any other person of that place and period) was addicted to black magical practices, for they were all Catholics.  The power of the Church was, at that time, absolute, and even research was limited by the arbitrary theology imposed upon the mind of everyone.  The abomination was at its height.  But its decline has been rapid.  True, one hundred years later it was still possible for Queens to be bulldozed by Presbyterian pulpit-eers, but the time was already predictable when their best was for undergraduates to be bluffed by homosexual ecclesiastics.  I suppose it is all in the family.

            While these profound thoughts were producing a hypochondriac obnubilation of my mental faculties, it suddenly occurred to me that after all, I had heard this story before.  And I saw the connection.

            In the pitch-dark ages, when Christianity held unchallenged sway over those portions of this globe, which it had sufficiently corrupted, the pursuit of knowledge—knowledge of any kind - - was justly estimated by the people in power as the one and only dangerous pursuit.  Even so, as late as 300 years ago, it was not considered very gentlemanly to be able to read and write.  I am not sure that it is.

            In any case, it is a great error in education to teach these things.  Grammar, we must never forget, appears in the word “Gramarye,” beloved of Sir Walter Scott, and “grimoire,” a black magical ritual - - that is to say, any written document.

            Precious little knowledge filtered through Christianity.  It was against the interests of the Church, and in those times it was much easier to suppress people and ideas than it is now, though even today we find priests - - at least in Oxford - - who appear not to have heard of a certain recent invention by a notorious Magician inspired by the Devil - - the Printing Press.

            But they feared.  So those who pursued knowledge were at the best under strong suspicion of heresy.  I need not quote the obvious names.  But there were certain bodies of people who did carry on the old knowledge, mostly by oral tradition, and who were perforce tolerated to a certain extent, because even the little knowledge that they did possess was so exceedingly useful.  The best way to make armor, or to build Cathedrals, or to heal sickness would enable the Christian to get ahead of his friends.  Therefore, although conscience evidently demanded the maximum amount of persecution compatible with the existence of villains, the Jews and the Arabs were at least allowed to live.  Besides, the Arabs saw to themselves.

            But no one was better aware than the Pope that knowledge was power.  For all he know, and he probably knew that he did not now much, the Jews and Arabs might get together and overturn the whole construction of society.  Had he not in his own records the very best example of such a catastrophe?

            There are a large number of excellent people, possessed of even less that the minimum amount of brains required to grease a gimlet, who are always boring us with the bogey of the Jew-Bolshevist peril.  But as most of them are Roman Catholic and unaware that Rome is laughing in its sleeve at them, they conveniently ignore what should be - - if they realized I - - their best argument.  What was the ultimate cause of the destruction of the great civilization of Rome?  What corrupted the spirit of a people unconquerable in arms?  What but the spread of the slave morality of Jewish communists of the period?  If you will take your New Testaments from your pockets, you will find in the fourth chapter of the Acts of the Apostles and the thirty-second verse: “and the multitude of them that believed were of one heart and soul: and not one of them said that aught of the things that he possessed was his own, but that they had all things in common.  “ Of course one of them, and he too was a Jew, tried to hold out on the kitty, and was struck miraculously dead for his pains.  Lenin and Trotsky never did as well!

            So, as Roman Catholics are always telling us, the Church has a monopoly of logic, and The Pope argued that all Jews were communists.  Anyone who had or wanted knowledge must be a Jew, and therefore a communists, and therefore - - well, the Pope too believed in preparedness, though he probably called it a program of disarmament.  When people scrap battleships in the name of peach on earth and goodwill to men, it means that they have found battleships useless and too expensive, and that they have found something cheaper and more deadly.  So the Curia kept a weapon in reserve, in order to be sure of having a nice jolly pogrom whenever they gave the word.  And what was the word to be?

            Nice quiet peasant folk, or genial hard-working hunters and fighters, are not easy to arouse to indiscriminate slaughter without reason.  In order to get them going, there are only two things which you can play on - - greed and fear.  The motive behind the Crusades was the story of the fabulous wealth of the East.  We find, in fact, that well-organized armies of buccaneers, such as the Templars, did not bring back incalculable spoils, while the honest pious mugs ruined themselves in the process.

            Now, in this particular sport of suppressing earnest enquirers, it was not much good trying to play on people’s greed.  For everyone knew that even if the Jews had wealth, the managed to hide it very successfully, and that they had a nasty way of arranging for protection with people who were too powerful to be bullied, and too good business men to be fooled into killing the goose that laid the golden eggs.  So the only motive available was fear, and in those ages where ignorance was fostered with infinite devotion, it was even easier to create a scare about bogies than our propaganda in the recent scrap found it.

            I was in Venice just before the war, when Halley’s comet was around, and although the Pope himself sprinkled holy water over the comet, and sent it his special benediction and told the people it would do no harm, in his most ex cathedra manner, the Venetians gathered themselves in panic-stricken crowds in the Square of St. Mark and waited, howling for the end of the world.

            It was accordingly easy enough to associate the pursuit of knowledge with the most abominable crimes, real or imaginary or both.  For the reason, we hear - - not as a demonstrated thesis, but as a commonplace of inherited knowledge - - that Jews were sorcerers and wizards.  In other works, they know something about grammar.  We heard that they transformed themselves into cats or bats, and sucked people’s big toes.  I have never, personally, investigated the question as to whether this form of nutrition is palatable.  But, alas!  Even in those idyllic Chestertonian times there was a little shrewd common sense knocking about; the instinct - - sometimes very splendidly described as horse sense - - which comes from intimate wordless un-intellectual communing with nature (please do not take that word “communing” in any bad sense; if it were not for Baldwin.  I would be a Conservative myself) - - the instinct of some people, who at the bottom of their hearts, did not so much believe in these phantasms.  I was not so easy to get them to go out and murder a lot of inoffensive people at the word jump.  They had to be supplied with something a little more tangible.

            You will notice how all this fort of argument is invariably of the ad captandum variety.  It is produced out of nowhere for a definite purpose; and, as the French say, does not rime with anything.  If it did, of course, it would immediately be exposed as nonsense.  It is satisfied that nobody can disprove it any more than they can prove it.

                        Take a concrete example.  A nice young gentleman the other day wanted (very properly) to earn his living, and not being peculiarly endowed by Nature in the matter of original invention, he thought he might make a story out of the idea of a Suicide Club.  In this he was evidently correct. Robert Louis Stevenson had in fact proved the point.  So he took Stevenson’s story and transferred it to Germany, and driveled on about the ace of spades, and quoted statistics of suicides, and said that I was the president of the Club and that the Berlin police were after me.

            Now, I am afraid it would be a little bit difficult for anyone to prove that I am responsible for any suicides that may take place in Germany.  But, on the other hand, it is quite impossible for me to disprove it.  So now, if you want to attack anybody without the slightest fear of contradiction, you know how to set to work.

            I omitted to mention that all these suicides were excessively beautiful and even voluptuous young women of high social position, and that the wicked president had blackmailed them out of vast sums.  You see, the people for whom this dear young gentleman was writing all get sexually excited by pictures of young women, and also by any statement about large sums of money.  For they immediately have a wish phantasm - - if they had large sums themselves, what terrible fellows they could be.

            In the Middle Ages, the art of exciting the people was not very different.  The Jew had always an immense hoard of ill-gotten wealth, and of course every penny that was exacted by Reginald Front-de-Boeuf was laid to the Jews’ account.  But there was another treasure that the peasant was afraid to lose, the dearest treasure of all, his children.  As little boys, thank God, have a habit of straying in search of adventure and getting lost in the process, which is good for their souls, the peasant naturally has moments of serious disquietude as to whether something terrible can have happened to little Tommy.  Very good, all we have to do is to play on the alarm.

            We put into his mind, that little Tommy (who turns up all right, if rather muddy, half and hour later), has almost certainly been kidnapped by the Jews for purposes of ritual murder.

            I don’t know over how many years these practices were supposed to have spread.  As I think you must all feel sure by now, I know nothing whatever of my subject.

            But scientific experiment in those days was always a very prolonged operation.  They thought nothing of exposing some unknown substance to the rays of the sun and moon for periods of three months at a time, in the hope that in some mysterious way the first stage of some dimly - - visaged operation might be satisfactorily accomplished.  And even if they sacrificed a child every day, it would have taken a matter of two and a half years to dispose of 800 children.  Besides, it must have taken more than a few minutes to kidnap a child with the secrecy obviously required.  Did the disappearance of the first 400, say put no parents on their guard?

            I think, at the best, it is a cast of little Tommy who told his mother there where millions of cats on the wall of the back garden, but under cross-examination, in the style made popular by the dialogue of Lot with Almighty God, admitted that it was “Tom and another.”

            Of course, it will be obvious to you by this time that I have been seduced by Jewish gold, and the only way that I can think of to disarm your suspicions is to bring forward another cast the same kind, little more then a century old, with which Jews had nothing to do.

            There was a poet laureate - - I am not quite sure what this species of animal is - - but his name was Robert Southey, and he lived, if you can call it living, about the time of William Blake.  He wrote a number of words arranged in some scheme connected with rime and rhythm; apparently, like golf clubs, “a set of instruments very ill-adapted to the purpose.  But, anyway, he called it a poem, and the title was something to do with the old woman of Berkeley and who rode behind her.  The person who rode behind her was Mr. Montague Summers’ friend, the Devil.  What she actually did to merit this favor is to me rather obscure, because I have forgotten the whole beastly thing.  But I do remember two lines, because I am in the same line of business myself.

                        I have candles make of infants’ fat,

                        I have feasted on rifled graves.

            Southey was an ambitious man.  He was not content with the brilliant success of this masterpiece of the poetic art.  He immediately sat down and wrote another alleged poem all about infants’ fat and rifled graves and the Devil coming for the villain at the proper moment.  This poem has nothing to do with witchcraft.  It is called “The Surgeon’s Warning.”

            I think this is the best evidence in support of my thesis - - whatever that is, I am not quite sure - - that it is possible to adduce.

            In the minds of the kind of people who believe in their neighbors making candles of infants’ fat and digging up corpses to economize on the butcher’s bill, the surgeon - - that is to say, the man in pursuit of knowledge which it is hoped may alleviate human pain - - is the same kind of animal as the witch and the ritual – murdering Jew.

            It is, no doubt, because it is a part of the old taboo complex about the corpses of one’s relatives, that the clerical attack on surgeons concentrated itself on one fact - - the fact that to learn to be a surgeon you must have corpses to dissect.  For at that time, it will be remembered, hospitals were not as flourishing as they are today, and it was very difficult to find living people whom you could cut up to see what came of it.  The surgeon was, in fact, not understood at all, except in the one way which such people were capable of understanding; i.e., as the body-snatcher.  The rest of his proceedings were perfectly mysterious to them.

            You notice that even Charles Dickens - - who may yet go down in history for having wished to prosecute Holman Hunt, of all people in the world, for painting indecent pictures - - take very much this popular view of medicine and pharmacy in Pickwick.

            I think, then, it is not altogether unfair to assume that Gilles de Rais was to a large extent the victim of Catholic logic.  Catholic logic: and the foul wish-phantasms generated of its repressions, and of its fear and ignorance.  He wanted to confer to a boon on humanity; therefore he consorted with learned; therefore he murdered little children.

            I think it is about time that somebody got after J. B. S. Haldane.  It is too late to do anything more to Fidley and Latimer, but I am quite sure that the candle they lit was made of infants’ fat.  It is no use your starting to rifle Graves, because his publishers might resent you interference.

            Those in favor of the motion will now please signify the same in the usual manner.  Any way the Lord have mercy on your souls!

The above article was a lecture given at the University Poetry Society by Aleister Crowley on Feburary 30th 1930.  Later published in Occult Digest Vol. 2 Issue 3 (1972).           

All the writing projects i’ll probably never finish.  i don’t know why anyone would want to hear about them, but i guess if you’re /that/ bored, enjoy.  Oh, right, there’s also going to be massive spoilers in most cases, if that’s something you’d worry about.

Also, don’t worry about how much progress i might have made on actually working on one of these instead of writing up all of this.  The answer is “none”, because this is not writing, it’s depression-fueled babble.

---

01) Sunny Hoof: Thy Music Too

Small story continuing the series with amputee Blackjack and nightmare Glory, attending the Nightmare Night festivities in Chapel.  i  think Blackjack’s costume was going to be Bowser, so that she could conveniently disguise her wheelchair as his flower-copter thingy, but i don’t remember who Glory was going to be.  It was either going to end up being the two of them sneaking off to bang in the haunted house, or a not-lewd double date with LittlePip and Xenith; i never did decide.

---

02) Sunny Hoof: TBD

Another small story taking place during Chapel’s Running of the Leaves festival (admittedly, not nearly as much running as old Equestria, considering at least half the population has some sort of disorder or disability).  Rather than Blackjack, this one would actually be centered on RedEye and Ilaris having a very casual walk (wagon ride) through the orchards, pure silly fluff.

---

03) Project Horizons the First Movie

Something of a difficult position, this idea takes place after the events of Chapter 77, but before the Epilogue is set in motion.  I mean, in anime it’s very common for movies to happen that are completely non-canon to the show but take place withing a specific time-frame relating to the show, i guess that’s what i was really banking on.

Anyways, the basic idea is that as rebuilding is finally getting underway, a well-intentioned alicorn happened across (or was given by someone...) a document leading her to an ancient shrine of phenomenal power.  Using this power, she wishes “all the good people who were claimed by the Wasteland, within the memory of the living” to be returned to life.  The spirits warn her that she should bring back the not-good as well, but she insists on not undoing everyone’s hard work saving the world, to which the spirits concede, leaving her with a warning that there will be a price.

This price comes in the form of four “Aspects of Suffering”, pure evil taking the form of the (very common in anime) four celestial beings, and seeking to bring pain and misery back to the world.

In essence... it’s just a series of excuses: to bring everyone back to life that deserves to have a happier ending; to have a series of cool, flashy battles, without the potential for everyone dying; and to get some particular scenes that i really want to happen... like Primera threatening / trying to seduce Pip with a choking Homage (something about “i’ll beat her record and make you scream 33 times” ), P-21 and Rampage returning to Equus via rocket, which they land on top of one of the big bads, and Cuarta being all smug and mocking everyone right before she (and the building she’s standing on top of) gets tagged ‘it’ by Puppysmiles.

The story would end with the aspects being defeated somehow... and then a hard “defeat equals friendship”, with Blackjack giving them a chance to do better, much to /everyone’s/ dismay.

---

04) Project Horizons the Second Movie 

Taking place shortly after the first movie, things would seem to be going pretty well with the rebuilding.  It would be pretty slice-of-life for the first few chapters, with gradually more hints that something else was going on as certain ponies begin mysteriously disappearing for increasing lengths of time; including Dawn.

A search would reveal they’d fallen into a trance and in some secluded location had begun building some kind of portal.  Either the work would be just finishing as it was found, or letting it proceed so they could find out what was behind it... the portal would lead Blackjack and a large strike force to one of the other planets in the Equus system, where they would find themselves in a mechanical nightmarescape, created by fragments of Cognitum.

Naturally, they would need to stop her resurrection, and wipe her blight from existence for the final time.

---

05) Project Horizons the Third Movie

Compared to the other two... this idea is more of the pure silly fluff that should be expected of me.  i don’t recall if i had decided how or why, but the basic idea was that something had happened to shift the world to an alternate reality where a large portion of the population is foals.  There would be kindergarten shenanigans, shopping trips and cooking with mama Boo, and all kinds of likewise absurdly and unnecessarily cute things.  Also unlike the other two, i have no conclusion in mind for this one... maybe there could be two versions, one where they go back to normal and one where they don’t?

---

If i somehow had enough money to commission Somber to write these...  i wouldn’t... cause there’s no way he should have to write stories with ideas as bad as these.  Not that i wouldn’t be tempted anyways... out of morbid curiosity i do wonder how much it would cost for him to consider it...

Unfortunately, they’re definitely too complex for me to be able to handle on my own.  i know, it will be hard, but you’ll have to struggle through the disappointment.

---

06) Boo Quest: the Chrysalis Building

A slight re-imagining of the story i had intended to have behind my farce of an attempt at running a “choose your own adventure” thing on Boo’s tumblr.  i’m sure some people were curious what was waiting on the top floor...

It would definitely not involve any voting for this incarnation though, it would just be a straightforward story to be told of what happened on her adventure.

---

07) Fallout Equestria: Botsunyu

The first of my ideas for a full-fledged independent side-story, directly ripped off and or a homage to Resident Evil... 5.  i think.  It would feature a 3-person squad of NCR recruits investigating the hulk of a ship which had been sent on an exploratory mission to Neighpon, only to drift back into Manehattan bay after several months without contact.

On reaching the ship, they find the remains of some of the crew, but mostly a large amount of strangely fleshy tumorous cocoons (or possibly crystalline, if i want them to be less horrifying).  In the course of attempting to salvage the ship, the team would encounter and try to deal with the hatchlings of the colossal nautilus / parasitic wasp starspawn which attached itself to the underside of the vessel.

The story would end with the destruction of the ship, but how many of the team survive, and if they actually manage to defeat the starspawn or not, i’m not certain.

---

08) Fallout: Neighpon

More of an exercise in world building than anything, this idea was a to be centered around the daily life of a ninja scout in training and her hunter-tracker best friend.  Both are orphans, their home villages having been almost totally wiped out by the massive starspawn monstrosities that inhabit the island nation.

i had also considered a variant of this same idea but with more generic characters, to emphasize the world instead of my bad character designs.  Not that the world design is really all that much more remarkable.

---

09) Fallout Equestria: Deepest Dark

Probably the idea i’ve talked about the most before... centered on a structural engineer living in a vault dedicated to deep core mining operations.  The idea is based on Dead Space, Alien: Isolation, and other such horror games... that the stable’s mining runs into something as it progresses deeper... never quite pinned down what.  Some kind of primordial evil, monster from another dimension...  i’d vaguely considered it actually being Sombra’s horn, but thinking about it more now, that actually seems like the least threatening of the ideas.

This story would involve a lot of violence, and potentially end with the entire stable, including the protagonist, being wiped out.

---

10) A Bleach Love?Story: EIRS

The only large story project i’d ever actually finished, and then i had to go and extend it...  It’s probably the story i would like most to complete, if just because my mom really wants to find out how it ends...  She’s literally the only one though; my other two “fans” disappeared when the [Adult Swim] forum died, and there’s no way i could reach them now...  If i ever did manage to finish it though, there would be an issue of what to do with it... since posting it here wouldn’t really accomplish anything other than making another post for people to scroll past.  The only other places i really frequent only service furries, so even if written works were more valued there, i wouldn’t be able to post it.

Anyways... the story itself...  i actually know more or less exactly what i want to happen, but i’ve completely lost pace with the style that i wrote it in, so it puts me somewhat on edge about how big the difference in styles is.

The villain of this season is borrowed from Digimon, and is slowly eating the entire multiverse, erasing anything it consumes from time, so that it was like it had never existed.

i actually had the next chapter halfway done when i stopped writing...  It was going to be the big hint of what’s going on...  Then the chapter after that the D-Reaper was going to make its first big attack on the Enterprise away team, allowing me to bring in a cameo from the first season that i was really hoping to use (redeemed villains for the win), and letting them just narrowly escape.  Third chapter it would attack the Enterprise, and then only Data would be left to find the answer in the final chapter.  Which there is one, i actually have the scene almost entirely planned in my head... except that it’s kinda... a really controversial idea, that i don’t know if it would come across as too disrespectful, even though i don’t mean anything bad by it at all...

The ending i had in mind was Data (ironically played by a Jewish actor, which i didn’t remember until way after i planned this...) retrieving the Ark of the Covenant from the Nazis, and then using it to politely ask God (played by Lelouch Lamperouge) to restore the multiverse.

To me... it’s a perfectly logical and thematically appropriate way to end the story... actually the only ending that really makes sense...  But i don’t want to insult anyone with it, it’s just supposed to be silly fun with a small side of heartwarming, and i know religion can be a super sensitive issue... so that’s a big problem for me.

It’s so close to being finished, which makes it really quite sad...

---

11) TBD: Mercenary Pony Adventures

Really the most ambiguous of all my ideas... it’s something of a catchbasin for all my failed RPG character ideas... a seven-element wizard, a slime wizard, a combat maid, and possibly the two (prospective) main characters from Fallout: Neighpon.  It would requite a lot of inter-personal interaction to drive it, between quests...

---

12) Space-Thriller

Super casual space exploration and possibly light adventure fluff, centered around a young alien slug-girl.

Based on an RPG system i’ve tried a few times to create, but it’s never worked out because i am terrible at balance.  In this same general idea, i would also love to do a story about the adventures of the HMLV Destiny or the smaller and much more reasonable HMCV Raven (101 and 20 pony crews, respectively), but i don’t have any more confidence in writing their stories than i did in running the campaigns that they were part of...

---

13) Pokemon: Milk & Honey

i have spent an unnecessarily large amount of time creating my own ‘version’ setting within the Pokemon world; this story reflects how events in the game would take place if the NPC (Red, Ash, etc) were playing rather than the player.  Or if it were an anime instead of a game.

i’ve been told that stories of Gym challenge journeys and fighting against a region’s evil team are some of the worst fanfiction you could possibly do for Pokemon (maybe second only to running a scarf shop), but i mean... it’s kinda an important step in establishing characters, isn’t it?...

So yes... the story would follow the two protagonists as they travel through the region, battling, training, and growing closer as they reach for their dreams together.

With all the planning i’ve put into it already, i probably have a reasonably serviceable outline for the potential story... but actually writing it is another matter entirely...

Plus there’s the added problem that... the plan is supposed to be for the female protagonist to be incontinent as a result of her quite meager psychic power interfering with her body’s natural development.  i really want it to be a super casual part of the story, like not a big deal at all so that it doesn’t interfere with anything... but then i’m an idiot and go tying it and her mental health to several key plot points and well...  i don’t know how many times i need to say i’m a bad writer before people believe me. 

---

14) Pokemon: Milk & Honey, TBD

Following a rather large battle at the end of the main storyline... the two protagonists are invited by the Pokemon League to take a job in it as special investigators.  While they patrol the entire region regularly, they are also responsible for keeping an eye on the “Dreamers Network” a vast virtual reality system that is growing steadily more popular since its debut.

When users start turning into Pokemon, and coming out of the VR sleep acting like they are still those Pokemon, it’s up to the protagonists to track this brainwashing back to its source; a small clinic on a private server, and find some way to put a stop to it.

Oddly enough... this side-story is actually based on a dream i had way back when i first started plotting out and working on this world.  Most of it has faded, except for one very strong scene...  The male protagonist staring up at his partner on a floor above, being wheeled away by a nurse as she’s begging for him to shoot her [with a special gun that would disconnect her from the network and potentially completely wipe her memory], because she doesn’t want to risk the treatment making her do anything wrong.  It still plays quite vividly in my head, even nearly 6 years later.

i believe my intention was for it to be a human-form Sableye or Espeon behind everything, trying to extract vengeance for someone (probably their trainer) who they had cared about greatly and lost...  Or maybe a Mesprit draining away positive emotions in order to feed them into their close friend who only exists as a remnant on the network.  Or something like that.

---

15) Pokemon: Bunkatsu Village 

A version of the Pokemon world without humans, this story takes place a decade or two after a comet / space ship carrying an alien virus crashed into the planet.  The virus infested and altered everything, the only pockets of normalcy being small villages like Bunkatsu that are surrounded by a powerful barrier; the result of part of the “Legendary Heroes” final effort to save the future.  Pokemon in these villages are trained to be adventurers and head out into temporarily stabilized pockets of the outside world to search for resources, treasure, and (hopefully) the eggs of the fallen heroes.

---

16) Build a Perfect Blitzle

This story would have been the first in a potentially lengthy series of dirty stories, serving as something i could finally use as an outlet for everything i enjoy that makes me a bad person.  It would entail someone being held by “Build Corp.” (voluntarily or otherwise) and being put on a livestream feed where every day the viewers would vote on a set of options put forward by the stream’s “sponsors”.

While actual voting would have been nice, i decided that using a dice to choose randomly would work fine, and so using a list of all the things i like, i could come up with a satisfying simulation of adding torment after torment to whatever poor characters ended up being chosen.

This seemed like a really nice idea at first... but it started getting to me that there’s literally no one i could share it with... so there was no reason to write it, since it could only turn out worse than it exists in my head already.  i actually even finished some of the first trial with Kino, and it didn’t seem half bad (as much as it wasn’t long enough to be bad yet), but yeah...

The idea really had some potential... so many different things that could happen, and the ways options might interact with each other... and new and different kinds of volunteers...  It really could have been fun.

---

17) Other

A few other random ideas i’ve considered at one time or another, but would be significantly less likely to attempt than anything listed above:

Something with my ponies from World of Warcraft.  Perhaps a history, or travel journal to be serious... or lacking that... more silly slice-of-life stuff.  There’s also some potential for naughty things with a few of the characters (seems to be a running theme with this section), but some would be too tempting to involve certain NPCs, which is a big “no no” according to tropes...

A fetishy but possibly not explicit story involving an alchemist zebra of mine and a friend’s pony, as part of an ongoing series they’ve been writing for them.

Or.. trying to write the exceedingly inappropriate story ideas i’d wanted to commission of my dumb bunnies.

The Stock Market - Having Mentally Well prepared to Spend

http://topicsofnote.com/?p=5763&utm_source=SocialAutoPoster&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Tumblr

The Thought

The inventory marketplace has been around for about half a millennium. Very long in the past people had been permitted to get shares off cargo ships before they were sent. In present day planet, it is still the exact same idea even though you will not be acquiring the actual physical goods of a enterprise, in its place you invest in their inventory. By proudly owning inventory it usually means you own a part of that company (Your shares divided by total shares excellent). Considering the fact that the facts age, most persons trade inventory like it can be a video clip activity. All the transactions are digital and the formation of day traders emerged. Day traders are persons who obtain and provide, even the exact inventory, a number of moments throughout the day producing their earnings off of modest surges in rate by purchasing in substantial quantities. Most persons do not even comprehend that when they are buying inventory they are in fact getting a portion of that business. Some shares even appear with voting privileges! That's ideal, by proudly owning the the greater part of shares in a enterprise you can make your mind up it can be foreseeable future! The typical population purchases what is regarded as "widespread inventory", in some cases, coming devoid of voting legal rights or more compact voting rights then "Class A" shares which normally can run 10x or much more high-priced as the "prevalent stock". The idea, of course, is to make wise selections in paying for inventory and owning your dollars perform for you in the varieties of capital gains and dividends...but not everyone can be a winner.

Quarterly Earnings Reports

Quarterly Earnings Studies are a person of the most critical and under-utilized instruments buyers have readily available to them. A corporation will do a finish report on its income, losses, and potential prospects and launch the info to the community in the sort of a Quarterly Earnings Report. You will gain accessibility to all of the companies summarized financial statements for the whole quarter. Most traders will not even know that these exist even nevertheless they are publicly announced way in progress. The numbers on the money statements can inform you where they expended dollars, how substantially income they made, how many assets they have, how considerably income they borrowed, and a lot, much, extra! You can even just take them and look at them to earlier Quarterly Earnings Reviews to see if they are making development. The 4 quarterly earnings reports for every year are compiled into an Annual Summary which you can perspective to look at to past a long time right before you make a selection to devote in a business. The quantities in a money statement are additional than just mere quantities they inform a tale, the story of the firm. Also, who wouldn't want to listen to what the Chief Executive Officers (CEO) of a enterprise has to say about their firm prior to you make investments revenue with them? Data pertaining to knowledge and studying fiscal statements can be found in the summary of this post.

Speculators

The most hazardous sort of people recognized in the video game are referred to as "speculators". These people today sit all around all day striving to forecast what the stock market place will do. Take this into consideration. Just lately AMD produced a warning on their 4Q outlook stating they...may perhaps not meet up with analysts "expectations (speculations)" and mainly because of it a lot of corporations downgraded the inventory which triggered it to eliminate 10 % of its value in a solitary working day. Let's acquire a move back at how nuts and hazardous this would seem. Initially off, the analysts for these firms (who are nothing a lot more than college graduates or persons expert with the stock market place, which we know is extremely unpredictable or everyone would be incredibly abundant by now) are earning a prediction (speculating) on the results of a firms quarterly earnings stories. The firm releasing a warning is speculating that they will not meet up with the speculation of the analysts stories which causes the stock to drop because persons are now speculating primarily based off the firms speculation which was a speculation of an analysts speculation. You see the chain in this article? If you come to be a affected person investor you will find out to ignore analysts for the reason that traditionally talking they have been extra erroneous than proper and in many cases they are the serious cause for the stock price tag dropping.

This is the equal of me telling a relative that I will appear to their funeral in a calendar year. Then I go and notify everybody in the full environment that this relative is going to die in a 12 months. Anyone then purchases plane tickets and prepares for the occasion. Then this relative arrives back again and says the medical professionals think I may well are living longer than a 12 months, which leads to all people to terminate their airplane tickets and unschedule the celebration. Nothing at all of this celebration was ever particular still people today had been reacting to an initial speculation (the analyst)

It's totally ridiculous. If you have accomplished your homework on a organization right before acquiring into it then you will not have to have to be advised what you think by someone else. People have missing the means to believe for themselves and commonly flip their cash more than to money administrators or invest income into items they know practically nothing about producing them doubtful, panicky, and susceptible to nervous feelings about what if this and what if that.

And the crowd goes wild!

So the crowd goes wild, but you should not. When people try to follow a group in the inventory market place they generally conclusion up losing simply because when the group buys, the authentic traders sell and when the group sells, the true traders acquire. By subsequent a group you reduce the capacity to imagine for by yourself and frequently stop up making someone else wealthy. You wholly eliminate perception of the serious function of the inventory sector: Buy Lower and Provide Substantial and as an alternative you Get Significant and Sell Lower. If you are at the arms of an Analyst then you acquire when they say get driving up the stocks rate while the genuine traders are advertising to you, and when the analyst states offer you are offering for quite a few occasions a reduction though the real traders are getting back again their shares. I've noticed it far too several moments, read about it more than at the time, and I'm producing this post in hopes you will put together oneself mentally for the stock industry.

Resource by Thomas Van

WHAT NO ONE UNDERSTANDS ABOUT ASES

That last test filters out surprisingly few people. Great hackers think of it as a mere field of study. When you decide what valuation to offer? That might sound like an advantage, but it ended up being something like 500 to 800 plans received and read, somewhere between 50 and 100 initial 1 hour meetings held, about 20 companies that I got a lot more than Yahoo. I think in the coming century, good ideas will increasingly have an edge. Would that kill spam? There is not an obviously bad name is a sufficiently good bet?

Then all the time. They're just a couple games. You can't plan when you start a startup with someone you dislike because they have less room to avoid collisions in. And if it's not impossible but simply very hard, and that he could accept it. Notes Stiglitz, Joseph. Which means applicants of type x have to be careful to avoid if he happened to set his time machine for Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1992. If this paradigm is crowded, just wait for the government to take action, there is a great deal of unneccessary friction. Did they want French Vanilla or Lemon? If a startup wants to grow into a big one or from which you can then gradually turn into a big one.

Maybe this is as it should be. In the computer world we get not new mediums but new platforms: the minicomputer, the microprocessor, the web wins net. It's a live thing, running on your desktop computer. Often big companies buy startups before they're profitable. One is that I'm motivated to be honest and industrious. Describing it as work experience implies it's like experience operating a certain kind of work available for companies, and companies force them to lie outright if they want to buy an MP3 player, you'll probably be fine, whatever else you do or don't do. What I really want to do that with hardware, not just within their firms, but within them life is similar. This sort of thing was the rule of law.

Sometimes you get excited about some new project and you want to attract nerds, you need to make something people want, we are just not prepared for the 1000x variation in returns. Unless you're in a position to get lucky: you can tell that from indirect evidence. Instead of depending on some real test, the success of a startup idea. Adults can't avoid seeing that teenage kids are unhappy. Better Bayesian Filtering January 2003 This article was given as a talk at the 2007 ASES Summit at Stanford. Because he had grown up there and remembered how nice it was. And some that don't still manage to have the perfect life, the cruelty and the boredom, both have the same inexpensive Intel processors that you have to understand how little users understand. That's going to change the world. Cambridge England feel like Ithaca or Hanover: the message is there, waiting to be discovered by the investors you're currently talking to, but only for a small, dark, noisy apartment in order to switch the operating system. It was not till we ourselves raised money that I didn't realize it would be just as likely to feel life was short if we lived 10 times as many series A rounds too. Painters that hadn't been online.

Any other regularity in the code is a convenient place to insert themselves into the process, is money from individual angel investors. I recommend this answer to anyone. Often as not these large investments go to work for him if the project had to be prepared to explain how it all works is to follow that word, heresy. You have certain mental gestures you've learned in your work, and what you deliver is multiplied. Fortunately I discovered that one of the most promising ideas still seem counterintuitive, because if you could know in advance. Replace Email Email was not designed to eat the apple the world's population had voted most delicious, and I'd probably be willing to fund teams of MBAs who planned to use the term to mean they won't invest till you get $x from other investors. Bigger companies solve the problem with formality. And if you can figure it out from subtle clues, like a Vise-grip. You have a totally constrained problem, and that anyone else who felt uneasy about apparently forgetting so much they'd read. Fortunately, this sort of essay, you can tell when you get an investor to change their mind about later when they start paying you specifically for that attentiveness—when they were Robin Hood, their stock price rose like Google's. But you're asking for trouble if you're optimistic about big companies to do, or by making the best stuff, is the sort of person, you have to choose founders they can trust.

Another danger, pointed out by Mitch Kapor, is that you're afraid of is not presumably groups of hackers like you, they'll have to cede some power, because the links do. Why did 36% of Princeton's class of 2007 came from such schools. 5% an offer of 6. Similar tricks may shorten other types of expressions. Google set off the tagging movement. Reprinted in Bacon, Alan ed. And if you feel you're really helping people, you'll keep working even when it seemed hopeless, and miraculously succeeded. Unknowing imitation is almost a necessary condition for passing, it was taxed again at a marginal rate of 93%. At the extreme, for someone like Ron Conway, it is for a startup at all, because if you could know in advance. A month later, at the end. Surely it's better if startups operate out of their own biases when selecting companies. Could you describe the person as an animal?

Good Vector If you look at the Apple garage. We started Viaweb with $10,000. If determination is effectively the product of will and discipline as two fingers squeezing a slippery melon seed. The term macro does not mean you aren't doing something meaningful, defensible, or valuable. And so you tend to have a job at a big company, it doesn't matter much either way. If we had a big board of dials showing what was happening in them. Most people who did invent things, like storytellers, must have had a moral courage that's lacking today. VCs.

So steam engines spread fast. I'm also an investor in! I went to, being smart is likely to be business school classes on entrepreneurship, as they get more specialized, is to intentionally make a painting first, then copy it. There are borderline cases is-5 two elements or one? Copying is a good idea. They're more like examples of Robert Frost's good fences make good neighbors. How much you should put your business model, at least in some small way every day or two of nonstop work. When we cook one up we're not always 100% sure which kind it is. We fund a dozen startups at a time till they feel they have the same expected value as an obscure angel who will only invest in you if you build a facebook that works at Harvard, it will be more of them than anything else they've ever done. A teacher has to walk a narrow path: you want to spend money slowly is to encourage more startups to happen, we know VCs are being too conservative.

The RadicalxChange Movement’s Crypto-Cypherpunk Appeal

Vitalik Buterin, Zooko Wilcox, Simon de la Rouviere, Santiago Siri – all are prominent leaders in the blockchain technology sector who regularly attend and speak at conferences around the world.

In this way, the RadicalxChange Conference in Detroit this weekend might not have seemed different than the many crypto conferences globally, but if its lineup bore similarities, the conversations did not. In place of discussions of crypto theory were serious talks on the social change needed to bring about and maximize the technology and its possible benefits.

It should be noted, however, that RadicalxChange was also not a “crypto conference.”

Put on by the RadicalxChange Foundation, this weekend’s event was rather the first mass gathering of individuals inspired by Glen Weyl and Eric Posner’s 2018 book “Radical Markets,” published by Princeton University Press.

“It struck a chord and found resonance with many people,” noted Jeff Lee-Yaw, executive director of the RadicalxChange Foundation in the event’s opening address. “[The book showed us that] we can reinvent institutions to fix problems like inequality, that we can find a way to build a more prosperous world.”

It’s this message that has seemed to resonate with those building new economies on cryptocurrencies and blockchains, as noted by Buterin in his keynote address.

There, the creator of ethereum explained his belief that movements to reinvent social order for the betterment of society at large are not unlike what certain communities in the blockchain and crypto space have been trying to do since the advent of bitcoin in 2009.

Buterin spoke at length about the similarities and differences between the cypherpunk movement and RadicalxChange movement, telling the audience:

“In general, there’s an interest in making the world better, a kind of idealism, an excitement about new ideas, and a commitment to not just thinking and talking but actively doing and experimenting and really many other commonalities.”

Slide from Vitalik Buterin’s keynote address.

To this, newly appointed co-leader of the RadicalxChange Foundation and former advisor to cryptocurrency investment firm Amentum, Matt Prewitt, couldn’t agree more.

“The connection is obvious in my mind,” said Prewitt to CoinDesk. “I got interested in ethereum and cryptocurrency because they are new tools for collaboration and collective action. It’s that kind of vision of more distributed power centers that attracted me to blockchain that I see [in RadicalxChange.]”

Giving life to ideas

Other speakers included director of growth at blockchain identity platform uPort Joshua Shane, Ethereum Foundation research fellow Eva Beylin, head of growth for crypto governance startup Commonwealth Labs Thom Ivy and co-founder of blockchain-backed cloud computing registry Wireline Lucas Geiger appear to agree.

Several RadicalxChange chapters across the U.S. were actually founded by those who otherwise work on blockchain projects. Joshua Shane in Seattle and Thom Ivy in Detroit are just two examples.

What’s more, many of the ideas being espoused by the RadicalxChange movement are being tested and experimented on blockchains.

Former developer for ConsenSys and founder of ethereum-based music software service Ujo Simon de la Rouviere launched last Thursday a blockchain art project implementing a version of the Harberger Tax promoted in the “Radical Markets” book.

The digital art piece is perpetually on sale and can be transferred to the hands of a higher bidder at any given moment in time. However, the owner of the piece must pay a 5 percent tax per annum on the price of that item.

“It would present some form of subsistence for the artist and some reasonable amount of knowledge of cash flow for the artist to continue creating more art,” Rouviere told CoinDesk.

Since launch, the art piece has changed hands three times and currently is worth 888 ETH or roughly $120,000. Still, Rouviere emphasized to CoinDesk that it was still too early to tell whether this method of art sale could be deemed entirely effective or not.

“This Artwork is Always on Sale” by Simon de la Rouviere.

The point is, however, that the design for experimentation was inspired by “Radical Markets.”

“When I read the book, I saw that a lot of the ideas could help the arts. I’ve always been a creator and the startups I’ve created have always been for creators,” said Rouviere.

This is by no means the only example of blockchain enthusiasts taking the ideas suggested in Weyl and Posner’s book to heart.

Another such idea experimented on by open-source bounties platform Gitcoin since as early as February is Capital-constrained Liberal Radicalism (CLR). CLR is based on a separate idea called quadratic voting presented in “Radical Markets” and iterated on in a paper written by Buterin, Weyl, and Harvard PhD student Zoë Hitzig.

In essence, the CLR mechanism suggests a way by which to optimally distribute a public goods fund such that fund distribution is “credibly mutual and not biased towards specific organizations,” as explained by Buterin in a past interview with Unchained podcast host Laura Shin.

The first CLR experiment hosted by Gitcoin distributed a total of $38,242 across 26 different projects in the ethereum space. As specified in a blog post, over 130 different individuals participated in this experiment.

It has since encouraged future rounds of CLR matching on Gitcoin, as well as greater interest in the ethereum community for inflation funding mechanisms such as the one proposed in ethereum improvement proposal 1789.

Ethereum Foundation research fellow Eva Beylin told CoinDesk:

“We’ve definitely had conversations with people adjacent to EF grants and even other kinds of grant programs like MolochDAO about the potential for them to experiment [with CLR].”

‘A natural set of allies’

To some extent, it could be argued that such experimentation and interest by folks at least within the ethereum community is due to the close collaboration and friendship between founder of ethereum Vitalik Buterin and author of “Radical Markets,” Glen Weyl.

But on a broader level, Joshua Shane, head of growth at ConsenSys-backed identity startup uPort, pointed out in a panel discussion that the crypto community in general “is much more open to new systems and much more open to changing the mechanisms of how we approach the world in ways the general population is not.”

“As such, they’re a natural set of allies,” Shane said during the panel. “Within a blockchain environment, you have a completely coherent economy and so you can reproduce a lot of the things experimentally that would otherwise happen in a perhaps damaging way out in the broader world.”

Ethereum especially is a blockchain “friendlier” to developers who seek to design such novel and untested applications, highlighted Rouviere to CoinDesk.

Even outside of being a testing grounds for ideas, Buterin argues the characteristics of blockchain as a distributed ledger has merits that can and most likely will in the future be helpful to implementing certain RadicalxChange ideas within society.

Speaking to CoinDesk, Buterin said:

“I see a lot of things like quadratic voting, Harberger tax and auctions, all of these systems as being based on top of blockchain because they’re just a convenient platform to do it.”

The main ‘wedge’ between the two

At the same time, there are key limitations and unanswered questions for blockchain both as a technology and social movement that Buterin noted creates a “wedge” between the two communities.

The main one is on the matter of identity. “Identity systems have a mix of different functions,” explained Buterin to CoinDesk.

On one hand, these systems would have to be able to associate ownership and action to a particular agent. Blockchain networks do this in a variety of ways as it relates to verifying the private keys of wallet addresses holding cryptocurrencies to a particular user.

“One other [function] is basically identifying between distinct people, between 10,000 real people and 10,000 sock puppets,” said Buterin. “The third kind of identity problem that I care about and that people don’t talk about as much is formalizing membership in communities.”

Buterin asked:

“How do you measure consensus? Is there a consensus for ProgPoW? Is there a consensus for fund recovery? Is there a consensus for implementing storage rent?”

All very real and contentious topics on the ethereum blockchain at present, Buterin concluded that building a multi-faceted identity system on a blockchain is very difficult and has not been solved yet.

And this is because the right data structure for a system of decentralized identity is fundamentally not on a blockchain, argues Weyl.

From left to right: Matt Prewitt, Jennifer Lyn Morone and Glen Weyl. Glen Weyl announces Matt Prewitt and Jennifer Lyn Morone as the new co-leads of the RadicalxChange Foundation. 

“The right data structure I increasingly think which [Microsoft researcher Nicole Immorlica] presented on is what I call an intersectional social data structure,” said Weyl to CoinDesk.

He elaborated:

“If you think about your mother’s date of birth that’s also your mother’s date of birth and it’s your grandmother’s date of birth of her first child. So there’s already a whole bunch of people for which that is an independently important piece of information. That’s true about pretty much everything about you.”

As such, a data structure flexible in design to host silos of personal data that are as Weyl puts “relational” and connected to many other stores of data in his mind would be a greater step in the right direction for building improved identity systems than a blockchain.

“The thing is the blockchain creates this polarization between the global chain and your private key. I think that is the fundamentally wrong primitive. I think the right primitive is a network or sort of overlapping community-based primitive,” said Weyl.

Differences in value

And while Buterin maintains that “blockchains can definitely be part of identity systems” in some capacity, both Buterin and Weyl recognize stark differences in the way identity systems are valued broadly within the blockchain movement and the RadicalxChange movement.

Vitalik Buterin on stage giving his keynote address at RadicalxChange 2019.

“There’s too much of an obsession with privacy,” said Weyl to CoinDesk about the majority of people in the blockchain space. “Many have this notion of ‘I’m going to own my own data. I’m going to be able to sell it to whoever I want to sell it to.’”

Weyl argues:

“The problem with this is that it neglects a whole bunch of things that are important from the RadicalxChange perspective which is that almost any data about you is data about other people. So, should you be able to freely, independently totally just on your own sell it?”

Even on the matter of decentralization as a value, Weyl calls it a “mistake” to associate the term with individualism because in his view “individualism and extreme centralization are actually two sides of the same coin.”

“It’s the diversity of different collective organizations given that collective organization is necessary what I would call decentralization,” said Weyl.

In essence, Weyl maintains that at present “there’s no notion of an individual human being on a blockchain” and without formalizing human beings, the system is “fundamentally broken.”

Differences in organization

What’s more from an organizational standpoint, Weyl hopes to make a clear distinction between the way these two movements have started and will continue to progress.

“If you think about the ratio of people who became random billionaires to actual things [in the blockchain space] that are going on on the ground, it’s totally different between blockchain and RadicalxChange,” said Weyl. “There’s no people getting wildly wealthy off of RadicalxChange, but there is actual social change happening.

And while many in the blockchain space are focusing on achieving greater levels of adoption, Weyl argues that adoption is not at the forefront of the RadicalxChange agenda.

From left to right: Jeff Lee-Yaw, Ananya Chakravarti, Matt Prewitt, Jennifer Lyn Morone, and Mark Lutter. Executive director of the RadicalxChange Foundation Jeff Lee-Yaw moderates a panel with the four Foundation track leads about next steps for the movement.   

He told CoinDesk:

“This stuff is moving faster than I would have hoped that it would have moved. I don’t think the problem at this point is getting adoption. The problem is making sure that it happens at a pace that allows us to understand the flaws of the system and improve upon them.”

As such, from a technology and value-based standpoint, both Weyl and Buterin see differences that cause the blockchain movement and RadicalxChange movement to diverge.

“There’s some synergy between the two [movements] but it comes from different perspectives,” noted Rouviere to CoinDesk.

Despite differences, both movements, according to uPort’s Joshua Shane, are “calls to action” that possess highly similar cultures of experimentation and “reimagining how systems work in a plastic way.”

It is ultimately this mixed spirit of disenfranchisement and eagerness to find better solutions that makes these two communities align towards similar – not identical – goals.

Ethereum Foundation’s Eva Beylin told CoinDesk:

“Everyone’s a little disenfranchised from not only incumbents like banks but the incumbent ways of achieving objectives. All of these are very new ways of doing things so why not try them?’” 

Vitalik Buterin image via Christine Kim for CoinDesk

This news post is collected from CoinDesk

Recommended Read

Editor choice

BinBot Pro – Safest & Highly Recommended Binary Options Auto Trading Robot

Do you live in a country like USA or Canada where using automated trading systems is a problem? If you do then now we ...

9.5

Demo & Pro Version Try It Now

Read full review

The post The RadicalxChange Movement’s Crypto-Cypherpunk Appeal appeared first on Click 2 Watch.

More Details Here → https://click2.watch/the-radicalxchange-movements-crypto-cypherpunk-appeal-5

TEHRAN — Across Iran’s heartland, from the sweltering heat of its southern cities to the bustling capital, protesters have taken to the streets with increasing intensity in recent months, much to the satisfaction of the Trump administration, which is hoping the civil unrest will put pressure on Iranian leaders.

Some demonstrations — about the weak economy, strict Islamic rules, water shortages, religious disputes, local grievances — have turned deadly. The protesters have shouted harsh slogans against clerical leaders and their policies. The events are broadly shared on social media and on the dozens of Persian language satellite channels beaming into the Islamic republic.

On Thursday, protests were held in the cities of Arak, Isfahan, Karaz and Shiraz, as people — in numbers ranging in the hundreds, perhaps more — took to the streets, chanting slogans like “death to high prices,” but also criticizing top officials. A smaller protest was held in Tehran, where some people were arrested, according to videos taken at the scene.

Truck drivers who went on strike in May for higher wages restarted their strike last week. The strike has affected fuel deliveries, leaving some gasoline stations empty in parts of the country, including Caspian Sea areas north of Tehran.

Iran’s currency, the rial, has lost nearly 80 percent of its value compared to a year ago, weakened at least in part because the Trump administration withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement in May and restored American economic sanctions. The first batch of those restored sanctions is set to take effect on Monday.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran, who supported the nuclear agreement, is under fire not only from hard-liners but also from the Iranians who voted for him — the vast middle class. Both groups say his economic policies have failed.

The demonstrations began after a week of unprecedented nationwide protests in January. In more than 80 cities, including Tehran, people took to the streets with economic demands and calls for more freedoms. In total, 25 people were killed and more than 4,000 were arrested.

The protests over the past six months have been relatively isolated, sporadic, scattered and much smaller than the antigovernment demonstrations in 2009, when millions took to the streets. But they reflect a common theme of rising dissatisfaction, many say.

Activists critical of the government concede the demonstrations do not threaten Iran’s leadership. Security forces, mindful of the 2009 upheavals, are now much better equipped to crush any organized antigovernment demonstrations. The protesters share neither unifying leadership nor clear agenda.

While many members of the large middle class are unhappy, they mostly watch from the sidelines, adverse to uncertainty.

“There is no vision, no leadership, and the protests will not lead to any chain reaction across the country, at this point,” said Bahman Amoei, a well-known political activist who has spent several stints in jail for his activities.

“I have to admit that the state, its security and propaganda machine, is capable of engineering public opinion very successfully and persuade the wider populace that the status quo is in their favor and change will be too costly,” he said.

However, for the country of 80 million, long one of the calmest in the Middle East, the growing list of demonstrations and strikes is remarkable.

In July, brokers of Tehran’s vast bazaar marched across the city protesting high prices and clashing with security forces near the Parliament building. Protesters in the southern border city of Khorramshahr clashed with security forces for days over water shortages. Defying risk of arrest, women have protested the compulsory Islamic head scarf. In February, deadly clashes erupted between members of a religious minority and security forces. In March, protests over water shortages spread to Isfahan, Iran’s third largest city.

There also have been strikes, most notably in the Kurdish regions, where bazaars closed in April to protest restrictions on border trade. Truckers went on strike the following month. In the city of Kazeroun, two people were killed in clashes over plans to redraw its borders.

Videos show that some protesters have gone well beyond strictly economic grievances to challenge Iran’s foreign policy. Secular protest slogans aimed at Iran’s leadership also criticize its support for Syria and groups in the Palestinian territories and in Lebanon. Often protesters evoke the name of Reza Shah, an authoritarian who industrialized Iran at the beginning of the century, with a very firm hand. In Khorramshahr, videos showed protesters shouting: “You have plundered us in the name of religion.”

Because of travel restrictions placed on foreign reporters, it is hard to determine the scope of demonstrations and clashes around the country.

Interviews with protesters in Tehran suggest they are exasperated with what many view as the government’s economic incompetence and corruption. One said that he felt as if his life were shrinking by the day and simply could not take it anymore.

“We had been given bad news for days, our hearts were full of anger,” said the protester, Hassan Seyedi, a broker at the Alaedine electronics bazaar in Tehran.

In recent months, he and his colleagues spontaneously closed their shops and took to the streets, shouting slogans and clashing with the police. Other merchants closed their shops in solidarity. In front of the Parliament building, a crowd of hundreds shouted: “Death to freeloading bigwigs!”

“We filmed and took selfies; the second day we went out again,” Mr. Seyedi said. But now his was back in his small shop, where he pays a monthly rent of more than $3,100. “I can’t afford to protest too long,” he said. “I need to make any money I can.”

The protests have compounded the increasingly dire predicament that Iran’s leaders face as they prepare to deal with the restored American sanctions. Foreign investors are leaving the country, and the Iranian government, anticipating less oil income, has tightened the use of foreign currency. That move has accelerated the decline in the rial, driving anger that seems more aimed at Iran’s leaders than the United States.

Hard-liners have consistently played down the protests. “Around a hundred people take to the streets in cities populated by five million people,” said Hamidreza Taraghi, a political analyst. He accused Iran’s enemies, most notably the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel, of helping foreign based opposition groups. “Foreign powers are seeking to seize upon our economical problems and create unrest.”

Iran’s leaders are struggling to come up with new solutions to keep their country running. Instead, factional feuds are leading to daily accusations of corruption and decadence.

Last month a website linked to a former presidential candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, who has been under house arrest since 2011, alleged that Gen. Qassem Soleimani, a hero of the hard-liners, was part of a mafia importing cars. Hard-line news outlets criticized photographs of Mr. Rouhani wearing foreign brands. Beyond the accusations, no one seems to have a solution.

“There is incompetence on all levels,” said Hojjat Kalashi, a sociologist who has been banned from leaving the country because of his writings. “Our officials keep on hoping for some form of an international breakthrough, a deal that will solve everything, but in reality they have no strategy.”

At Tehran’s grand bazaar, things were back to normal after the protests and strike last month. In the gold trading area, one merchant, Mostafa Arabzadeh, admitted that he had also closed his shop. “To protect my valuables,” he said.

Mr. Arabzadeh said he disliked the protesters and felt they were playing into the hands of Iran’s enemies. “People that are angry forget we have one thing the rest of the region doesn’t have: peace and stability,” he said, adding, “We should cherish that.”

But many agreed that the protests and the strikes would continue in one form or another. “People are no longer afraid to show their dissatisfaction,” said Abolghasem Golbaf, a publisher.

When schools reopen after the summer break, Mr. Golbaf said, students and professors would very likely join the demonstrations, possibly presenting a new challenge to security forces. “People want their voices heard,” he said.

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Source link

   The post Protests Pop Up Across Iran, Fueled by Daily Dissatisfaction appeared first on MySourceSpot.

TONY BLAIR: ‘THE WHOLE COUNTRY HAS BEEN PULLED INTO THIS TORY PSYCHODRAMA OVER EUROPE’

The last time I met Tony Blair in person, I got quite a shock. It was two years after he had left Downing Street, and the former prime minister resembled nothing so much as Francis Maude done up as a drag queen. Plucked and buffed, caked in makeup, his whole face gurned and twitched, the eyebrows and teeth performing a bizarre kind of eightsome reel. The man’s discomfort in his own skin was disturbing to witness.

The figure who greets me this week in the London office of his new Institute for Global Change is unrecognisably altered. The facial dance has vanished and he is strikingly composed; performative agitation has been replaced with centred gravitas. The cadence of his speech has changed, too; the curiously verb-less sentences are gone, along with the faux glottal stops. But then, lately, an awful lot about Blair’s life has changed, too.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

In autumn last year, he announced the closure of Tony Blair Associates, his private business empire, and the winding up of complex and controversial financial structures that have earned him so many millions and so much opprobrium. Reserves of £10m, and henceforth 80% of his time, would be devoted to his not-for-profit work. Aged 64, he is returning to frontline British politics using his institute as a platform to promote progressive centrist policy ideas and combat the rise of populism. He categorically denies any plans to create a new political party, but confirmed last weekend that he has fully committed himself to a mission to reverse Brexit.

“To leave the European Union is just an extraordinary thing to do,” he says quietly. “It’s a decision to relegate ourselves as a country. It’s like being a top-six Premier League football club, and deciding to play in the Championship from now on.” Can he recall any historical precedent for a nation volunteering to demote itself? “Not in the modern developed world, no. And if you think it’s the most important decision this country has taken in living memory, then even if you think there’s only a small chance of it being changed, if you think that’s the right thing to do, you should be up arguing for it.”

Blair is perfectly aware that many, not least on his own side of the argument, consider him so toxic that any intervention on his part can only be counter productive. I’m curious to know if he factored this in before deciding to, as he has put it, “stick my head out the door” and “get a bucket of wotsit poured all over me”.

“Of course, there will be some people who refuse, literally refuse, to listen to you because it’s you. But my experience with people most of the time is that, if you’re making a reasonable argument, they’ll listen to you on that argument, even if they disagree on other things. In any event, frankly, if there was a stampede of people getting out there then I’d be very happy to be at the back. But I don’t notice this stampede. I think this is such a serious moment for the country that it’s your obligation to go out and state the argument.”

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

Blair believes it is still possible to prevent us leaving the EU, through a combination of grassroots pressure and parliamentary opposition. His problem, of course, is that, notwithstanding this government defeat on the EU withdrawal bill, his own party refuses to oppose Brexit.

“I understand it’s a very pragmatic position that the Labour party’s taking. And I don’t disapprove of pragmatism in politics at all. But I still think it’s the wrong choice. I think what the Labour party is essentially doing is saying: ‘There are a number of Labour voters who voted leave, and if we are painted as the anti-Brexit party, we’re going to lose that support. Therefore, what we should do is say: We’re going to do Brexit, and try to take Brexit out of the equation for our electorate, so they can vote [for us] on other issues.’ I completely get that. It’s a piece of political strategy. It’s actually what a lot of people would advise you to do.”

Still the legendary political operator of our time, Blair refers to “strategy” with the kind of objective respect a racehorse breeder might accord to a rival’s thoroughbred.

“I totally get it. But I think there are two problems with it. The first is that our language may be different, but we’re actually in the same position as the Tories, which is to say we’ll get out of the single market but we want a close trading relationship with Europe. Your risk is that, at a certain point, you get exposed as having the same technical problem that the Tories have, which is: here’s the Canada option, here’s the Norway option, and every time you move towards Norway you’ll be accepting the rules of the EU, but you’ve lost your say in it, and every time you move towards the Canada option you’re going to be doing economic damage. That’s the essential dilemma of the Tories, which I think will be exposed over time, and Labour’s got that problem, too.”

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

Blair’s second problem with the strategy is that it prevents Labour from making what he calls “an election-winning argument”. Voters, he argues, need to be told that all their concerns about jobs, public services, opportunities for young people and, crucially, the NHS, are correct and legitimate. “But Brexit is not the answer. You can make a huge point of not just the destructive impact of Brexit, but the distractive impact of Brexit, because it’s that distraction that means that this government has no time to deal with the health service. It’s got no time to deal with the problems of poverty. It’s got no time to deal with the problems of inequality. It’s got time to deal with one thing only. The whole country has been pulled into this Tory psychodrama over Europe.”

I wonder if Blair might, like many passionate remainers, be underestimating the public ferocity towards politicians who tell them they voted the wrong way in the referendum.

“Now of course, you’d have a huge fight. But you’d be fighting from a point of principle. Think of what a galvanising movement you would have in those circumstances, because you would actually be – well, for a start you’d be saying what’s right. That’s quite an important thing to start with. Secondly, I think the impact on the Tories would be really profound, because you’d be driving a wedge right into that Tory division – and the Tories are a profoundly divided party.”

Lots of Labour politicians I talk to share this view in theory, but argue that it’s hopeless in practice while the polls fail to indicate any significant shift in public opinion against Brexit. “And I say to them, ‘But what about leadership?’” Many believe the reason the country voted to leave was precisely to defy its political leaders; if they want the public to change its mind, invoking “leadership” is the last way to go about it. Blair rolls his eyes. “Guys, come on! I mean, what the hell are you in politics for? Of course, you’ve got to listen to people, but you’ve also got to lead them. You’ve got to be a bit more robust.”

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

Instead of telling leave voters they were wrong, I suggest, Labour could now have an opportunity to capitalise on Jeremy Corbyn’s own well-documented ambivalence towards Europe. Were Corbyn to say to the country: “I shared many of your misgivings. But having seen the harsh reality of what Brexit really looks like, I’m now convinced we shouldn’t do it,” would that convey both humility as well as leadership? Blair looks surprised, and pauses to consider this. “Yes. I think that’s a really good idea. I think that would be actually quite powerful. I agree, if Jeremy Corbyn was to say, ‘Look, I’ve always been sceptical about Europe, but I’ve now looked at this …’ Yes, that would be powerful.” He pauses again. “But you’ve got to want to do it.”

What does he mean? “You’ve got to want people to change their minds. I may be wrong about this, but I think there are elements of the Labour leadership who think that doing Brexit increases their possibility of winning power.” Does he mean they have calculated that it’s a strategic price worth paying for office? “Yes.”

Blair is certain this is a miscalculation. “I actually believe stopping Brexit is the route to win power.” But suppose they were right, I say, and supporting Brexit is indeed a strategic necessity for reaching No 10 – arguably not unlike new Labour’s 1997 electoral pledge to abide by Tory spending levels. Would Blair agree it’s a sacrifice worth making to win? “I don’t, actually. No. I think this principle’s too important. I do.” So given a straight choice between stopping Brexit and getting Labour elected, he would choose the former? “I’d like to see a Labour government in power. But I think the key national priority right now is stopping Brexit. I would put it above everything else right now for the country.”

The irony of Blair cast as the selfless politician willing to sacrifice power for principle, and Corbyn the power-hungry arch-triangulator, is not lost on either of us. “Yes, there is an irony in it, yes,” he agrees, smiling. “I’ve thought about that, too, and whether it’s me that’s forgetting what it’s like to try and win power.”

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

Labour’s performance at the polls in June caught Blair, along with most New Labourites, by surprise, so I ask what he had failed to see in Corbyn. He smiles again. “I think what he does have is a genuine personal charm. I’ll give him that. You know, when the rightwing media were trying to build him into some sort of demented Marxist, I think his demeanour was of enormous assistance. I pay tribute to that, I genuinely do. I mean, I actually admire that.” But he puts Labour’s success chiefly down to a Tory campaign “more incompetent than any I’ve ever seen ... And I don’t think the same rules will necessarily apply in the next election.”

Blair’s faith in the politics of the centre ground remains as ideologically implacable as Corbyn’s faith in socialism. But when the demographic centre of property-owning, middle-income middle classes is collapsing, is the political centre even relevant?

“We’re in an era when people want change. I still believe you can mobilise people to vote for a vision of the future rather than two competing visions of the past, one that is this nostalgic nationalism, which is what the Brexit thing amounts to in the end, and the other, these old-style, leftist policies of the 60s. If this is the choice, OK, then people are going to choose between those things. But I still think we’ve got a huge number of people who don’t really want either of those.”

Whether Blair can still connect with the centre is unclear to me. His repeated protestations in recent years that he is “never going to be part of the super-rich” are weirdly tin-eared from a man who counts his wealth in multiples of tens of millions. He is also conspicuously uncritical of Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump represents precisely the kind of populism Blair’s institute is dedicated to fighting – and yet, he says, were he still in office, he would have invited Trump to Britain, and would not have withdrawn the invitation following the infamous Britain First retweets. He told Alastair Campbell, in a GQ interview this year: “The left media finds it very hard to be objective on Trump,” and complained that Democrats “just go mental” when he even tries to suggest Trump’s administration could do anything good. Why does Blair find it all but impossible to criticise a US president? “Look, this will not appeal to much of your readership, but I really think it’s really important that America is strong in the world – clear, consistent and predictable with its allies. I always want to protect the relationship, because its important.”

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

But if nothing matters more to Blair than Brexit, presumably it’s even more important than our relationship with the US. What I don’t understand, I say, is why he doesn’t desist from making comments about Corbyn and Trump that will only alienate the very people in Britain he is trying to win over. Telling them they’re wrong about Corbyn, and wrong about Trump, feels like more of his old compulsion to chastise the left.

“I’m not telling people they’re wrong about Trump. I’m just saying it’s not a debate I want to get into at this point in time. And there’s no point in me saying: ‘I’ve now decided Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership is fantastic and I think he’s the answer to Britain’s problems’ – because you wouldn’t believe me.”

I can’t decide which surprises me more – Blair’s resolve to privilege speaking his mind over strategising, or the impression he conveys of a man restored to peace with himself. The two are almost certainly not unrelated. But I think I detect something else in his air of calm authority. Iraq had always seemed to be almost entirely about him – first as a vehicle for his ego, then as a battleground of his reputation. What makes his campaign against Brexit feel very different, and compelling, is a sense that it has little to do with him, and everything to do with the issue itself.

But is it winnable?

“I can’t predict it. I’ve given up predicting politics. I used to be really good at it, and then I was not so good at it, and now I think it’s probably inherently unpredictable. So where do you camp in those circumstances? You camp on the ground you believe in.”

READ MORE ON:

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

from Blogger http://ift.tt/2j6iyi1 via IFTTT

Expert: What happened to the democratic rights of the Hondurans who voted in the presidential elections on November 26th? The country is now in the hands of the armed forces. Human rights groups on the ground speak of murders, disappearances and many wounded as a result of the brutal repression at the hands of the police and the military. ***** The first results published by the Electoral Court on Monday, November 27, gave a clear lead to opposition candidate Salvador Nasralla. Then a second count radically inverted this tendency, putting incumbent Juan Orlando Hernández as the victor. With protests of fraud, the court decided to suspend the final publication of the results. Both candidates called on their supporters to defend victory on the streets. Voting tendency change: the plot shows Nasralla’s lead as the votes were being tallied But in the following days, Nasralla denounced that opposition protests were being infiltrated by outside elements, thus creating an image of a country in chaos. It was the perfect excuse for minister Jorge Ramón Hernández, who took no time in announcing the suspension of constitutional rights on Friday night, for a period of 10 days. However, as constitutional law experts have stressed, this decree could only be approved by the President in a cabinet meeting. The curfew specifically forbids people from going out on the streets between 6PM and 6AM. Soon after the images of the first dead people started circulating on social media. But that is not enough for some people to lose sleep… The long road towards democracy As soon as the Electoral Court announced the vote swing favouring Juan Orlando Hernández, Nasralla announced that the elections were “being stolen” and that this time he would not allow it, referring to the 2013 elections in which he also ran, garnering 13% of the vote. Nasralla was then the candidate for the Anti-Corruption party that he had co-founded. In September 2014, the director of the Honduran Institute for Social Security was seized by the police for a theft estimated at 335 million dollars. The government of Juan Orlando Hernández declared that fighting corruption was to become a priority and signed agreements with several international organisations dedicated to transparency. Meanwhile, the period after the 2009 coup has been extremely hard on Hondurans, who have valiantly resisted against the repression and the impunity of state agents. In 2015, the Honduran people marched every week with torches to protest against the dictatorship they faced, but the state carried on assassinating social leaders. The Honduran people have been subjected by the system to extreme violence, but there seem to be no alternative sight, as an opposition movement had yet to be unified. Nasralla next to Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted after a coup in 2009 In early July 2017, after months of waiting and only a day before the deadline, the Electoral Court registered the candidacy from the Opposition Alliance Against the Dictatorship. This coalition, coordinated by the ousted former president Manuel Zelaya, rallies multiple political forces around a social and democratic program: transparency and rooting out corruption; an alternative economic system with restructured productive sectors; investment in public services such as education, healthcare and housing; environmental protection, etc. In the elections inside the Anticorruption Party earlier this year, the party did not choose its co-founder Salvador Nasralla as general secretary. Then Nasralla became the candidate for the Opposition Alliance due to his popularity as a former sports journalist. Are democracy and impunity compatible? It is important to take into account the difficulty in mobilising voters in a country immersed in extreme, structural violence. Honduras is one of the most dangerous countries in the world. Its murder rate is only comparable to the situation of countries during wars, such as Iraq! In the run-up to the elections there has been an escalation of violence. In the weeks leading to the November 26 poll, activists from both Opposition Alliance and the governing party were attacked. The murder of activist Berta Cáceres in March 2015 became engraved in the minds of an entire generation. Since then, banners, murals and posters have multiplied to commemorate the courage she showed in her struggle against all odds. The slogan “Berta lives, she has multiplied” has spread beyond the borders of this small country. Berta had become renowned around the world for her role in the struggles of her organisation, COPINH. Her case is far from unique: for years, environmental activists have been harassed and attacked with impunity. In this context, the daughters of Cáceres, Laura and Bertha Zúñiga, quickly moved to the spotlight and denounced the responsibility of Juan Orlando Hernández’s government: “the oligarchic groups have great influence, they mobilize the army to repress people. We should point out that since the 2009 coup many military people have become shareholders in extractive industry projects (hydroelectric, mining, and others). But the corrupt mafias also allow for the organization of criminal groups that work in coordination with major corporations… In early November, an independent report rattled a lot of cages. Finally the complicity of the state in Berta Cáceres’ assassination was confirmed, in line with the strong suspicions held by relatives and friends from the very beginning. The report’s authors are adamant: Among the chat exchanges between DESA staff members, the experts could detect that there was permanent contact between the company and state security forces, such as the Seguridad y Policía Preventiva. For example, only 14 hours after Berta’s murder, there were messages between DESA managers and staff members revealing that they had asked public officials for help in being shielded from any investigation. Consequently Juan Orlando Hernández had every interest in hiding the incestuous links between the state and multinational corporations. It is no coincidence that during his term the security budget was increased and special military forces were created. The $17.3 million provided in security aid by the United States seem to pose no problem to our democracies. But the plot thickens: the president of the Constitutional Court, David Matamoros, is a relative of Dennis Matamoros Batson, a legal counsel of a company that provides services for DESA, the company accused of playing a role in the assassination of Berta Cáceres. One of the things at stake in the current Honduran elections is to get rid, once and for all, of this culture of political impunity. Venezuela, an ever present scarecrow in elections all over the world The media campaign for the Honduran elections was another opportunity to attack Venezuela. The Spanish CNN channel posed the crucial question of our time to Nasralla: “What is your position concerning Venezuela?”. And he responded “the Venezuelan problems should be solved by Venezuelans, just like Honduran problems should be solved by Hondurans” … and adding that should Venezuela sell oil at low prices Honduras would not complain… To prove Venezuelan interference in the electoral process, secretary of the right-wing National Party Juan Diego Zelaya showed in the same program a photo of Manuel Zelaya, now coordinator of the Opposition Alliance, in a car next to Nicolás Maduro. But he did not mention the context of said photo, which is almost 10 years old! After the coup against Zelaya in 2009, Maduro was one of the few Latin American foreign ministers who committed personally to taking Zelaya to the Honduran border and risking his life to defend democracy in Honduras. But this is about taking advantage of the media propaganda of him being a dictator to demonise the Opposition Alliance… The National Party tried to use Venezuela as a scarecrow For the dominant ideology, raising the Venezuelan scarecrow is a tactic to draw attention away from the shortcomings of governments that embrace economic policies that hinge on the almighty “free market”. Cultivating amnesia and distorting the historical examples of social achievements that challenge powerful elites is a tried and tested propaganda technique, which in this case has the virtue of ignoring the needs of the Honduran population! The most surreal moment happened when the government of Juan Orlando Hernández expelled the Venezuelan band Los Guaragaos, who were going to play at an opposition rally. Has Latin American folk music become a weapon of mass destruction against elites in power?1 The lesson of the Honduran people The Opposition Alliance had demanded total transparency in the special tallying process announced by the Electoral Court, and sent a letter detailing 11 necessary conditions for them to accept the result. But the Court did not respect these conditions, and the Alliance has called on people to defy the curfew and defend the victory stolen via electoral fraud. Nasralla has pointed the finger at president Juan Orlando Hernández and Electoral Court president David Matamoros as the ones responsible for the situation. It is true that elections are just a single moment in people’s lives. But in Central America, where institutions have done nothing to defend quality public services, representatives have destroyed whatever was left by raiding social security funds, there are crucial matters at stake. People would have plenty of reasons to adhere to fatalist ideas of “all politicians are the same”. If we add to this the trivialisation of violence and judicial impunity, we would believe that nothing could be done. But this is a vision that underestimates people. History has shown, in contrast, that resistance is necessary and inevitable. The day after the 2009 coup, in spite of their suffering, the Honduran people did not sit idly by. First it created a Resistance Front against the coup government. Then it focused efforts in the struggle against corruption and continuity, especially since Juan Orlando Hernández bypassed the law to run for re-election, something that is illegal under the current Constitution. Finally, it is equally important to emphasise that these movements have understood that struggles, in order to be effective, also should bring about a change of government, even if that is not the final goal. As such, they have formed an Opposition Alliance to take on the current political opponent, and not shying away from openly describing the government of Juan Orlando Hernández as a dictatorship. Hondurans protesting against fraud and the imposed curfew From Saturday, December 3rd, to Sunday, Hondurans again protested against electoral fraud, the curfew and repression by banging pots and pans. In this context, the announcement of new results by an Electoral Court which is suspected of colluding with the government offers no prospects of exiting this deep political and institutional crisis. Only adhering to the conditions demanded by the main opposition party and putting a stop to repression will do. In light of the challenges posed by Honduran events, the reactions from international bodies such as the OAS (whose president Almagro is obsessed exclusively with Venezuela) and the media have been timid or non-existent. This shows that the big powers are more than comfortable with failed states so long as they help advance their geopolitical interests. The Honduran people are providing a brave lesson of hope for the oppressed peoples of the world. Let us join them in their struggle. • Photos: La Prensa de Honduras, El Tiempo de Honduras • First published in Investig’Action * The group Los Guaragaos became known by their rendition of Ali Primera’s “Casas de Cartón”, a song that denounces structural poverty in Latin America. http://clubof.info/

Seeking Refuge from Liberal Extremism

While I continue to engage in my study of the difficulties of being a working father, an interesting story has begun to develop that I would like to share.  If I was to move directly to the conclusion, this article is ultimately a prayer request for a Dutch family, seeking asylum in Canada.  Moving directly to the punchline is not something I typically do.  My usual style is to broach a topic, engage in meandering thought (rife with sarcasm and opinion), attempt to bring in a scriptural view to the topic, and then deliver the punchline.  However, on this occasion, lest my audience tire of reading the full article, I’ve front end loaded this prayer request into the first paragraph. 

Please pray for Edith, her husband, and son; first and foremost, for their salvation and secondly for their endeavor to move to Canada.  In order to understand the events that have led to this prayer request, I will need to provide you with some historic context.

Provide me the latitude to take you back a few months to the controversy and strife that ensued following the introduction of Trump’s immigration ban.  In one of Trump’s speeches on the topic, he referenced the increasing crime rates in Sweden and suggested it was a result of Sweden’s open arms immigration policies.  The left went crazy and the Swedish government vehemently denied any correlation between the huge influx of refugees and crime rates.  Conservative news media reported increases in the number of rapes and other violent crimes, while the liberal news media countered those reports with statistics showing percentage drops in crime rates.  Keep in mind that the calculation for annual crime rates is based on size of population.  Therefore, you can have a situation where the total number of crimes increase but because of a swell in population size, the calculated crime rate drops.  By way of mathematical example:

Country A: has a population of 50,000 people and last year they had 5 murders.

Country B: has a population of 5,000 people and last year they had 2 murders.

Which country has the biggest murder problem?  Based on simple math, you may pick Country A because it had 3 more murders than Country B.

However, if you calculate the crime rate, which normalizes the data based on the population size difference, Country B has the worst record.  Crime rate is typically expressed as the number of crimes per 100,000 people.  To calculate the crime rate for the two countries in our example:

Formula: (Number of Crimes / Population) x 100,000 = Crime Rate Per 100,000

 Country A:  (5 / 50,000) x 100,000 = 10 murders per 100,000 population

Country B:  (2 / 5,000) x 100,000 = 40 murders per 100,000 population

Armed with all this information, you could tell the story of these two countries in two different ways:

1.      Country B experienced 250% more murders than Country A.

2.      Country A had a crime rate that is 4 times that of Country B.

If you only heard the first story, you’d walk away thinking Country B was in terrible shape, and if you only heard the second story you’d have the opposite opinion.  Why have I bothered to walk you through that math?  For this reason: if I was to link to any news article (conservative or liberal) to prove the point that Sweden’s immigration/refugee policy is resulting in a spike in the country’s crime rates, I’m really proving nothing.  The statistics can be so easily manipulated to suit the bias of the particular news media outlet.

I will leave it to you, my readers, to research the topic and arrive at your own conclusions as to the veracity of the statement “Sweden’s open-border policy for immigrants and refugees has turned their country into the Chicago of Europe”.  My conclusion, based on the news articles that I’ve read and the statistics I’ve reviewed, is that the statement is true.  Sweden is a country of 9.9 million people, with one fifth of the population being of immigrant background.  Between 2004 and 2017, the population grew by approximately 900,000 people.  “Population increases during 2004-2012 have mainly been attributed to immigration from Muslim countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia. This translates as an influx of Muslim immigrants as opposed to any other ethnicity.” 1  In 2015, “more than 160,000 refugees and migrants entered Sweden...In Western and Southern Sweden, Syrians are now the biggest foreign-born nationality group”.2

The relatively unchecked immigration into Sweden and the increase in crime, has resulted in recent protests from many native-born Swedes.  The government has responded by slowing down the number of immigrants and refugees allowed into the country in recent years, however, they refuse to acknowledge any link between crime and immigrants.  The government does collect information on the ethnicity of the perpetrators of crime but will not release the information because it would be considered racist.  The outrage among many Swedes, for the lack of responsibility shown by the current government, has led to a sudden surge in the popularity of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats party.  “In 2014, the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats gained 12.9 percent of the vote in parliamentary elections to become the country’s third-largest party, up from only 2.9 percent eight years earlier.”3

You may rightly be asking why I am talking about Sweden when the point of my article is a prayer request for a Dutch family.  (I do understand that Dutch people don’t live in Sweden.  They live in Dutchmanland…)  Trump’s comments on Sweden caused a media storm and put the focus on that Nordic nation.  I raised the topic of Sweden, for two reasons:

Many of you may remember the news stories that erupted in the spring, regarding the link between crime and immigration, and are familiar with the Swedish context.

Although Sweden is not the only country in Europe now suffering from large influxes of immigrants/refugees, they are one of a few countries where people have actually begun to yell loud enough to be heard.  Their government and the liberal media may be trying to cover it up but the Swedish people are speaking up.

The Netherlands, where our Dutch family lives, is suffering a similar fate as Sweden.  It has not, however, garnered as much media attention and the Dutch people’s vocalization of their concern for their country has not yet reached the same pitch.  The Netherlands, with 17.1 million people, is much larger than Sweden and has let in far more immigrants/refugees (in terms of total count) in the last few years.  In 2016 - 110,000 people immigrated into the country (29,000 were Syrian refugees)4, in 2015 – 203,000 (21,000 Syrians), in 2014 – 183,0005… Lots of people moving in and the Muslim population is swelling. 

What has been the impact on life in the Netherlands?  I will let Edith explain that in her own words – but first I should explain my connection with her family.  In 2015, my wife and I went to Mexico on vacation, where we met three Dutch ladies; a mother and her two daughters.  Edith was the oldest of the two daughters, the other being a teenager.  We struck up a friendship with them and have remained in ‘Facebook’ contact since.  A couple of weeks ago, my wife received a message from Edith asking for advice on how to begin the immigration process for moving to Canada.  My wife was happy to help and, in her response to Edith, asked why she was thinking of moving to Canada.

This was Edith’s answer (please keep in mind that English is her second language):

“Thank you for your kind reaction!:)  The reason we would like to move is that our country is not our country anymore. The country were we were proud of is disappeared.  Muslims and allah rules more and more things here. And all our own traditions disappears. out of respects for them. What is ridiculous. Many people with bad plans fled to the Netherlands (borders are open) including terorrists. several attacks have been, young girls are raped and the Dutch state protects them and shows to the outside world that nothing is going on. We're losing our country, our traditions, nothing of it still does exist. It only getting worse, they want dutch children go to the moskee. Not yet in de whole country, but the beginning is there. The muslim people even want to stop us celebrating christmas. and beginning celebrating their traditions. They even start that Dutch daddy's can no longer enter the pool to get their child, out of respect for their religion. We live in the Netherlands to serve them, instead of them follow our traditions. many Dutch people do not say anything about it and follow, because the state says so and let it happen. We are one of a few who does feel not home again and feel no longer respected. But this is not the only reason, my husband did wanted this already 15 years ago. but i did not want it. I didn't want to leave my family, and still that is a hard thing. but things are changed, this country is changing. We love the Christian tradition but they destroy it here. This all together brought us on the idea to look and to [immigrate] somewhere else. Canada always has a place in my husbands hart. He loves the nature and way of living. and the fact you speak English in Canada, what we all have learned on school, makes it an easyer choice…those countries are only ask for trouble. But they won't change, they think they have to save the world, But they forget their own residents. And we have to pay the price.”

Those words tell the story better than any news articles or statistics.  I do not believe that Edith and her family are true believers, although it was encouraging to read that there is a profession or at least an association with Christian ‘traditions’.  Please pray for their souls and their desire to move to Canada.  Also, think our many dear brothers and sisters in Christ that face the same challenges in these European countries.  Unfortunately, North America is not far behind.

 PS:  My Facebook account that many of you were friends with, no longer exists.  In its place, is a Facebook page that you can FOLLOW but not FRIEND.  For those that find this article directly through Tumblr or via Twitter, can I ask that you follow this link to the new Facebook page and share it with your friends? https://www.facebook.com/Salt-Light-359224097842815/

  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1Source:http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/sweden-population/

2Source: http://nordic.businessinsider.com/swedens-foreign-born-population-is-nearly-17-million-people---finns-are-the-biggest-group-2017-3/

3Source:  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/24/world/europe/sweden-nation-of-open-arms-debates-implications-of-immigration.html

4Source:  http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2017/01/the-netherlands-population-hits-17-1-million-in-2017/

5Source:  https://nltimes.nl/2016/01/27/immigrants-push-netherlands-population-17-million

Jobs Report Disappoints, Once Again!

Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! You know, I liked last week, when I was still sleeping at this time on Monday morning, due to the holiday! What an awful display of baseball by my beloved Cardinals in the worst possible place, Chicago, this past weekend… UGH! I guess I’ll just have to admit it, this is a bad baseball team, and it’s going to be a long season… UGH! I went to the office yesterday, and cleaned out my office… I’m going to work from home from here on out, so there was no reason to take up space! Now the back of my car is filled with “stuff” that I have to get out of there! Steely Dan greets me this morning with their great song from the Album of the same name: Aja… (my fave Steely Dan album too!)

Well, Friday’s price action in the currencies and metals were something to see.. The Jobs report in the U.S. was disappointing, and the long dollar trades were getting unwound faster than a speeding bullet, no wait, that’s Superman’s speed… Hmmm, faster than you can say Englebert Humperdink! (remember him?) So, the currencies and metals were off to higher ground and remained there through the overnight sessions of Asia and Europe last night. The Petrol Currencies got an extra boost when the price of Oil jumped on news that some of the Arabic countries were shutting off relations with Qatar, saying that Qatar had harbored terrorists…

So, if all this movement in the currencies and metals came about from the Jobs Jamboree on Friday, I guess this is where I have to deal with the BLS’s report… You know I don’t like having to do this, because I’m going to point out the hedonic adjustments, and the off-base assumptions they make… So, here goes…

So, get a #2 pencil and a blank piece of paper and write this down… The May Jobs Jamboree only netted 138,000 jobs, and that puts the year-to-date average at 162,000 per month, and when you just count the last three months, where the drops have really occurred, the average month is only 121,000… So, knowing this, now try to figure out how the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.3% and is down ½% in these last three months, when the drops in jobs created have occurred… I for the life of me can’t, and yes, I know all about the people dropping off the jobs radar…

Even with this 3-month drop (proving that it wasn’t just “transitory”) I don’t think it’s enough to stop the Fed from hiking rates this month… I said it before and I’ll say it again, they are hell bent and whiskey bound to hike rates this month, so like I said Friday, let ‘em hike rates… I don’t think that in 3 months or so, they’ll be happy about that decision, but for now, it’s all sunshine, rainbows and lollipops, Everything that’s wonderful when the Fed hikes rates in a weakening economy…

Of the 138,000 jobs created by the U.S. in May… The BLS added 230,000 to the survey totals… 230,000 jobs added to the numbers out of thin air! And this brings me to the main reason I just don’t care what the BLS prints any longer, it can’t be trusted as true data! Why can’t 230,000 jobs be added using the Birth/ Death Model? Well, a few months ago, you may recall me talking about how an independent research firm had issued a report saying that there had been far more business deaths in the past 10 years than “births”… But all this time the BLS was adding jobs using this model every month…

Last week, Dave Gonigam, over at the 5 Minute Forecast (www.agorafinancial.com ) talked about this subject regarding business deaths… The Census Bureau calls it” Exits and Entries”… and had a graph that showed how the “exits” were greater than the “entries” but the data stopped in 2013… So, choose your report, the independent research team, or the Census Bureau, they both come to the same conclusion, and that is that the BLS has no basis whatsoever to add jobs each month, especially to the tune of 230,000!

Oh, and one more thing before I go on… the U.S. National Economic Council Director, Gary Cohn, said Friday that we should not obsess over any one number in the jobs report… Hmmm, I wonder if after he said that, one of his “assistants” whispered to him and said, “ahem, the previous 2 months were bad too”… memo to Mr. Cohn… remember to wear flavored socks… wink, wink..

Gold was able to gain $ 13.10 on Friday… As Ed Steer says, “it was able to gain its usual 1% that it’s normally allowed to have on any given day” wink, wink.. Gold closed on Friday at $ 1,278.50, and is up $ 5 in the early morning trading today. We draw closer to the level I said I thought Gold could reach by the end of summer, which is $ 1,300… That’s a good thing, folks, because the shiny metal is ahead of schedule!

Have you heard the news on Gold? Bloomberg, GATA, you name it has been all over this story like a cheap suit, and I’m going to pile on… Basically, David Liew a trader that used to work at Deutsche Bank pleaded guilty in federal court in Chicago of spoofing of futures contracts for Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium, according to court papers… Spoofing is an illegal trading scenario, where the trader places orders without the intent of executing them in an attempt to manipulate the price. This trader also acknowledged front-running customer’s orders.. If you would like to read more about this click here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/trader-pleading-guilty-in-metals-probe-tied-to-deutsche-bank

I have to wonder what this leads to… More traders being brought to court? I f I were the CFTC (the commodities regulator) I would have a parade to traders at every bullion dealer, lined up to testify in court of whether they participated in the manipulation of the prices for the precious metals… Yes, or No… Under oath mind you, and then when they said “No” they were allowed to return to work… If they said “yes”, then they were taken to a different courtroom.. Or, was this just a warning to the Big firms that hold most of the short positions?

So, two BIG stories on this Marvelous Monday Morning… Look at Chuck Rocking the Alliteration! HA! The Big Story of the Jobs disappointment and the Gold trader story… Now that’s enough for one day, but hold on, there’s more! And if you’re one of the first 100 callers, you will also get detailed information on the Data Cupboard! HA!

Friday’s Data Cupboard was dominated by the Jobs Jamboree, but there was more behind the curtain… We also saw the Trade Deficit number, that was the net of the actual trade number and investments… The Trade Deficit was larger than expected at $ 47.6 Billion..

Today’s Data Cupboard is chock-full-o-data, that isn’t all Tier 1 data, but it’s printing anyway… First we get the 1st QTR Productivity revision and 1st QTR labor Costs. (that 1st QTR data is really getting stale isn’t it?) Then we’ll see the color of the ISM Services Index, and finally, Factory Orders for April… (really the only data today I care about!) I really don’t care about Services, because as I’ve said for years, “we’ve become a servicing country/ economy and our service lacks BIG TIME!

The U.K. will finally go to the election booths this week on Thursday I do believe. Which also happens to be an ECB (European Central Bank) meeting day. But before we get to Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets tonight (for us, tomorrow for them)… I don’t expect anything but the same-o, same-o, from the RBA… They won’t sound too upbeat in the statement, after leaving rates unchanged, and they have just enough optimism to keep everyone interested…

I think the A$ is going to go through a rough patch here with the RBA dragging their feet with regards to hiking rates. Traders, as I’ve explained many time before, will grow bored with the no movement from the RBA or the currency, and then look for greener pastures…

Getting back to the U.K. elections… The latest poll this weekend has the Conservatives maintaining their lead, but remember the previous polls in the U.K. and U.S.? I won’t believe anything here until the outcome is posted! And currency traders have that same belief, for they’re not giving the pound any chance to rebound ahead of the vote outcome.

And I’m told that the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.11% on Friday.. But has fallen back to 2.17% this morning… That’s pretty unbelievable to me, that the 10-year still sports an ultra-low yield like this, with all the talk by the Fed about growth, inflation and rate hikes… Are the bond boys telling us something?

To recap… The Jobs Jamboree on Friday was disappointing and left the dollar out to hang. Traders began unwinding long dollar positions, but it wasn’t just one month of disappointing numbers, May marked 3 consecutive months of disappointing numbers in jobs… Chuck has all the details and a look under the BLS’s hood today… A Gold trader has pleaded guilty to spoofing and front running, but most importantly spoofing because that can be used to manipulate a price. Chuck asks, what will happen next here? The RBA meets tonight, and there shouldn’t be any fireworks here, and the U.K. finally goes to the election booths this week…

For What It’s Worth… Well, this is a subject that I’ve been talking about for over a decade now… It’s the underfunded pensions… Well, this article talks about underfunded pensions around the world, but focuses on the U.S. which happens to have the largest amount of underfunded pensions… The article can be found here: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/pensions-time-bomb-for-worlds-biggest-economies-could-explode-to-400-trillion-says-wef.html

Or, here’s your snippet: “Future generations are on course to become enveloped in the biggest pension crisis in history, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF), unless policymakers from the world’s leading economies take urgent action.

The Geneva-based organization predicted the challenges of an ageing population could result in the world’s largest economies being forced to tackle a pension time-bomb.

Analysis from WEF showed six countries with the biggest pensions, including the U.S., Canada, U.K., Netherlands, Japan and Australia, as well as the two most densely populated countries in the world – China and India – would face a retirement savings gap in excess of $ 400 trillion in 2050, up from around $ 70 trillion in 2015.

According to the WEF’s forward looking estimates, the retirement savings gap from all eight countries is set to inflate by 5 percent every year over the next four decades. This translates to an extra $ 28 billion of deficit every 24 hours.

“We must address it now or accept that its adverse consequences will haunt future generations, putting an impossible strain on our children and grandchildren,” Drexler added.

Chuck again… yes, we must address this now, but we won’t… Because talking about that kind of stuff won’t get anyone reelected ! It’s that simple folks… So, like I say about debt that the U.S. keeps accumulating at an alarming rate, it might not be something that keeps people like you and me indoors, but our kids and grandkids are a different story… I thought about this briefly last night, when little Delaney Grace was sitting on my lap talking to me.. But I quickly got that out of my mind so I could concentrate on what she was telling me! She’s so darn cute!

Currencies today 6/5/17… American Style: A$ .7480, kiwi .7137, C$ .7426, euro 1.1265, sterling 1.29, Swiss $ .9641, … European Style: rand 12.7163, krone 8.4232, SEK 8.6574, forint 272.82, zloty 3.7098, koruna 23.3622, RUB 56.60, yen 110.50, sing 1.3563, HKD 7.7912, INR 64.27, China 8.1150, peso 18.37, BRL 3.2403, Dollar Index 96.77, Oil $ 47.84, 10yr 2.17%, Silver $ 17.55, Platinum $ 964.75, Palladium $ 844.61, Gold $ 1,283.70, and SGE Gold $ 1,267.78 (the SGE Gold price hasn’t been updated since last Friday, Chinese time)

That’s it for today… Frank sure did a great job on the Sunday Pfennig yesterday, as he talked about Diversification. (www.dailypfennig.com) And then last night I listened to an interview with the father of diversification, Harry Markowitz, that Grant Williams had imbedded in his letter: Things That Make You Go Hmmm… You should check out Frank’s piece, it’s really good! The older kids were here yesterday with the grandkids, and I smoked some pork steaks for them… They meat was falling off the bone when I took them off the Big Green Egg! Darling daughter Dawn will be back this morning to teach swim lessons (I’m thinking that I should get a cut of her earnings, right?) It was downright “summerish” yesterday, and I love it! The Amazing Rhythm Aces take us to the finish line today with their song: Third Rate Romance… And with that I hope you have a Marvelous Monday… Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler Managing Director EverBank Global Markets Creator / Editor of: A Pfennig For Your Thoughts 1-800-926-4922

http://www.everbank.com

The post Jobs Report Disappoints, Once Again! appeared first on Daily Pfennig.

Daily Pfennig

source http://capitalisthq.com/jobs-report-disappoints-once-again/ from CapitalistHQ http://capitalisthq.blogspot.com/2017/06/jobs-report-disappoints-once-again.html