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dakotacrisis · 4 years

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It’s a Fluke

I got like two other one shots that I’m gonna get posted later. Tis the season and all that jazz.

Felix and Marinette get partnered for a project and neither are too thrilled about it...at first.

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Felix and Marinette had never gotten on. Felix couldn’t get past her excessive cheer and energy and Marinette was sick of his cold shoulder and grumpy attitude. It was how it was between them and everyone knew it. Felix had joined the ranks of the exclusive group of people Marinette couldn’t stand and Marinette became another casualty of trying to befriend Felix and utterly failing.

That was until the day they got paired for a project. The partners had been paired by the teacher and were not up for debate. Whether they liked it or not they were gonna have to work together.

Things started off cordial enough. Straight to the point, no nonsense, everything was about their work. They chose what they were going to work on and figured out times they could get together to review the progress they made. It was going to be fine.

“Dupain-Cheng,” Felix approached her at her locker, “Did you finish the research for your part last night?”

“Yes.” She pulled out her notes on the subject. “You?”

“All done.” he flashed his own notes. “Meet at the library during free period to review?”

“Sounds like a plan.” And with that they parted and went to class.

Free period rolled around and they settled into the library to continue working.

Marinette sat across from her looking over her notes and making edits and constructing a good flow for the information when she felt like someone was watching her. She looked up and Felix’s sharp grey eyes were trained on her like he was studying her.

“Yes?” She asked when he didn’t say anything.

He blinked a couple times before sneering a bit. “Do you know you hum while you work? It’s quite distracting.”

“Sorry?” Marinette huffed as she went back to her work. She thought about humming again just to spite him but decided not to. She would be mature about this.

“It’s a fluke?” Felix said.

“What was that?”

“The song you were humming. It was It’s a Fluke, was it not?”

“It was.” Marinette nodded. “How did you know? I didn’t think that was your type of music.”

“You’d be surprised what all I listen to.”

“Hopefully not XY’s stuff.” Marinette grimaced.

“Goodness no, I have an eclectic palette of music and that man’s dribble meets nowhere near my tastes.” Felix scowled. “Doesn’t help that his latest song has been on every radio station on repeat for at least a week now. It is starting to drive me up a wall.”

“I know! It comes on at the bakery all the time and my parents are one repeat away from just disconnecting the sound system to the store altogether. I’ve never actively listened to it but if it started playing I would be able to sing along and I hate it.”

A brief smirk creased his otherwise blank face before dropping once again. “Yes, but enough about music. We should be getting back to work.”

“Right, of course.” Marinette shook her head and raced to find the place she left off.

The next day was more of the same with them working in relative silence. Marinette made a small comment about a song she liked that she thought Felix may be interested in. He didn’t say much but nodded consideringly which gave Marinette hope he would actually listen to it later.

When school let out Marinette frowned at the torrential downpour. Her house was right across the street but she would be soaked through by the time she got to cover. If only she hadn’t forgotten her umbrella again.

“Dupain-Cheng,” Felix met her at the entrance, “I was hoping to catch you before you left for the day.”

“What is it?”

“I won’t be able to work during free period tomorrow but I would like to finish up what we have so that we can do any final edits before our presentation Friday.” He said, “Would you mind if we worked after school? Considering your schedule is open of course.”

“Oh yeah, shouldn’t be a problem. Where were you thinking?”

“My house, six PM sharp. Does that work for you?”

“Sounds good to me.”

“Then I will see you then.” He pulled out his umbrella and started descending towards the car waiting for him.

Marinette looked out towards her house and sighed. Might as well get it over with now. She stepped out into the rain trying to shield her head from the downpour as much as she could with her bookbag.

She was halfway to the street crossing when the rain let up around her. She looked up and Felix was walking next to her with his umbrella stretched over her. “What are--” she started to ask.

“I’m not so heartless as to let you trudge your way home in this rain.” He cut across her. His eyes trained forward. “Be quick though, my ride is waiting.”

“Thanks.” Marinette turned to him once she was at the bakery door. “That was kind of you.”

“Do me a favor and don’t forget your umbrella next time. It does no one any good when you’re forgetful.”

Marinette’s small smile curdled into a scowl. “Right. Sorry for inconveniencing you.” Marinette stepped into the bakery and slammed the door behind her. At least she tried. There was an automatic stopper on the door that slowed its close so it couldn’t be slammed.

Felix stood on the other side with an entertained smile as Marinette glared at the slowly closing door. Uppity little weasel!

She turned sharp on her heel and stomped upstairs. Every time she thinks he’s being nice he does a one eighty and she’s right back to annoyed.

A night of rest and a subsequent pleasant morning didn’t do much to improve her attitude towards Felix the following day. Which was bad seeing as how she had agreed to go over to his house that evening. Whatever. At least this project was almost done then she wouldn’t have to interact with him again.

She got to his house and was buzzed in. He greeted her at the door and Marinette was taken aback by the casual boy in front of her. Worn out pair of jeans and sweatshirt. Even his usually perfectly styled hair was mussed.

“Is there a reason you’re gawking at me?” Felix asked when she hadn’t said anything.

“Sorry. I don’t think I’ve ever seen you so...casual before.” She was going to say laid back but even in his pajamas she didn’t think she’d be able to say that about Felix. No matter what he was always ramrod straight and professional. No amount of sweats or messy hair could cover that.

Felix gave an amused scoff before gesturing her inside. “We can work in my room. Is that alright with you?”

“Sure.” She followed him up to his room.

Now this felt more like Felix. Simple decor, tall bookshelves, everything was organized and tidy and there was a distinct pine smell as if someone just finished dusting. Felix sat down at his desk and Marinette stood off to the side shuffling through her own work.

“You can sit if it makes you more comfortable.” Felix said after a couple minutes.

Marinette looked around but didn’t see another chair that she could use. “Where?”

“Oh right…” Felix looked up and scanned the room. “You can sit on the bed so long as you take off your shoes first.”

“Okay…” Marinette pulled off her shoes before nestling at the corner of his bed. She spread out her work around her as she tried to compose it all into a cohesive whole.

This is weird. This is so weird.

“What do you want done with this bit? I’m not sure where to put it.” Marinette asked.

“What bit?” Felix collected the paper. “Oh this, huh,” He pushed some papers out of his way to make room and sat down next to her. “We could put it--no that wouldn’t work. We could always--no that doesn’t fit either.”

“Honestly, I’m not even sure if we need it. It seems really irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.” She reached across him for a paper. “We could just jump to this next part and skip that bit. What do you think?”

Felix was staring at her again but it wasn’t out of annoyance. He was studying her again.

“Felix?” Marinette inquired quietly. “What are you…”

She glanced down and noticed she was far closer to him than she had been a moment ago. “Sorry. I should have just asked you to pass the paper instead of leaning across you like that.” She tried to withdraw but at the last second he touched her shoulder.

His eyes were still trained on her face flicking across her features like he was searching for something. Then he gently pushed her away. He stood up and stiffly walked back to his desk. “That sounds like a fine plan. You can throw that last bit out.”

Marinette was still trying to figure out what happened a moment ago. Felix was making a definitive point of avoiding looking at her.

They finished their work and Marinette started packing up to leave.

“Dupain-Cheng,” Felix walked her down to the door, “I listened to that song you recommended.”

“Oh. What did you think?”

“It was good.”

She waited for him to elaborate but that seemed to be as much as he was willing to share.

“Okay. Good. Glad you liked it.” She opened the front door. It was raining again. “Crap.”

Felix gave a small sigh. “Forget your umbrella again?”

“The forecast said it was gonna be clear tonight. Would you mind if I borrowed yours? I’ll give it back first thing tomorrow.”

“If you can’t remember your own umbrella what is there to convince me you’ll remember to bring me mine?”

“Fine then. Geez. I’ll just use my bag.” Marinette took one step outside before she pulled right back in. “Felix!”

“Calm down.” He pulled his umbrella out of the rack by the door. “Let’s go.”

“You won’t let me borrow your umbrella but you will walk me home?”

“Do you want to be dry or not?”

“Are you going to make a snarky remark like you did yesterday if I do?”

“If I apologized would you come along already?”

“Don’t. My house is just down the block. I’ll be fine.”

“It’s also late. And I would feel better knowing you got back to your house safely.”

“Nothing is going to happen in the five minutes it’d take me to run to my house.”

“Marinette,” the use of her first name caught her off guard. He held the umbrella towards her. “I am sincerely asking you to let me escort you home for peace of mind.”

She stepped out next to him. “Okay. Thank you.”

They started the walk home in silence before Felix spoke up again.

“I am sorry if whatever I may have said offended you before. Sincerity seems to spark a defensive reaction in me for reasons unknown.”

“That seems rather silly, doesn’t it?”

“Yes.” he chuckled dryly, “I suppose it does.”

Marinette could see the lights of her house in the distance. For whatever reason Felix slowed down in his stride forcing Marinette to slow as well to keep under the umbrella.

“Dupain-Cheng, I was wondering something.” Felis asked, “What is your thoughts on vinyl records?”

“Vinyl? My mother really likes them but she never let me touch them when I was younger. Why?”

“There is a little vinyl shop I know that has some albums I think you would like if you were interested.”

“Are you serious?”

“I would like to see what other recommendations you have for me. My usual tracks have grown stale to listen to and could do with some newer sound.” He looked away from her. “I understand if you would rather pass. I fear I am not the best company even in the sincerest of circumstances.”

“I wouldn’t go that far. You’re grumpy and have a tone issue but you’re not outwardly malicious like other people I know. I have to say I am surprised though. I had the distinct impression you didn’t care for me very much.”

“True you are far bubblier than I would like and it is hard to take in all at once. But I would much rather be partnered with you then say Kim or Nino.”

“Such praise.” Marinette rolled her eyes. They were finally back at her house. “When were you planning on going to this shop?”

“Tomorrow after class?”

“It’s a date.” She nodded. “I mean not a date. Like a date date. But a get together as friends kinda date. You know what. Let’s call it an outing. Not a date. That sounds good to me.” She fumbled for the door handle to her house. “I’ll uh see you tomorrow?”

Felix was smiling at her in much the same way he did when he walked her home yesterday. “See you tomorrow, Dupain-Cheng.”

#they're both disasters in their own right #miraculous ladybug #marinette dupain cheng #felix agreste #felix graham de vanily #felinette #writing

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

The Iowa caucuses are now just five days away, so pollsters are busy trying to give us their final looks at where the candidates are heading into Iowa. But for those of you hoping for a clearer picture of where things stand, I’m afraid there’s no such luck.

Three new Iowa polls dropped today pointing to a still very close race between Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden (though former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren shouldn’t be written off). And topline numbers in our primary forecast show that Biden is still in the lead with roughly a 1 in 2 (45 percent) shot at winning a majority of pledged delegates, while Sanders has about a 3 in 10 (29 percent) chance of doing so.1 Buttigieg and Warren each have about a 1 in 20 (5 percent) shot.

Compared to yesterday’s election update, these figures represent a 4-point improvement for Biden and a 2-point decrease for Sanders. A fair bit of this has to do with fixing a bug in the model’s code — the model was giving candidates extra credit for wins in their home states and regions when it was supposed to be deducting credit instead (editor-in-chief Nate Silver has an explanation here). But it’s also because Biden led in two of the three new Iowa surveys whereas Sanders led in both Iowa polls we talked about yesterday.

In our Iowa forecast, Sanders still leads slightly (37 percent versus Biden’s 35 percent). This is unchanged from yesterday and is probably better thought of as a tie. Buttigieg and Warren’s chances haven’t really shifted in the last 24 hours. Although Sen. Amy Klobuchar did tick up a little today thanks to some double-digit showings in today’s batch of polls, though she remains a decided underdog with only a 3 percent shot at winning Iowa. On balance, though, the newest Iowa surveys held some good news for Biden compared to some other recent surveys where Sanders did better, though the Vermont senator did still manage to make gains in two of today’s polls:

First, Monmouth University found Biden in the lead with 23 percent, followed by Sanders at 21 percent, Buttigieg at 16 percent, Warren at 15 percent and Klobuchar at 10 percent. And even though Biden was the poll’s leader, he was actually down a point from where he was in Monmouth’s last Iowa poll from early January. Buttigieg also fell a point, while Warren’s numbers were unchanged. Sanders, on the other hand, ticked up three points from 18 percent to 21 percent, and Klobuchar two points (though both gains were within the poll’s margin of error).

Next, Morningside College made their 2020 debut this week with an Iowa poll that found Biden very slightly ahead of the field with 19 percent. (Buttigieg came in second at 18 percent.) Meanwhile, Sanders and Warren were tied with 15 percent support while Klobuchar had 12 percent.

Finally, contrary to what Monmouth and Morningside found, Iowa State University/Civiqs’s new poll found Sanders leading the field by 5 percentage points with 24 percent support. Warren came next at 19 percent, followed by Buttigieg at 17 percent, Biden at 15 percent and Klobuchar at 11 percent. But keep in mind that Iowa State/Civiqs has found strong numbers for Buttigieg and Warren in the past, so once we account for house effects, the model treats their results as 15 and 14 percent, respectively. At the same time, this pollster has generally had Biden polling worse than other pollsters, so his number bumps up to 18 percent. There’s less of a known house effect for Sanders, though, so our model keeps his support at 24 percent, up 3 points from the pollster’s December survey. (Buttigieg fell 7 points from December and Klobuchar gained 7 points. Biden and Warren’s numbers were roughly the same.)

Of course, we’re not just interested in the topline results in these polls either. We’re also keeping an eye on questions regarding Iowa voters’ second-choice preferences, as voters No. 2 could be important on caucus night because voters have to shift support to a new candidate if their initial choice doesn’t meet a certain level of support at their caucus site (usually 15 percent).

So if there’s one reason not to write Warren off, it’s that she was the top second-choice pick in both the Monmouth (19 percent) and Iowa State/Civiqs (16 percent) polls. In other words, if she can remain viable at most caucus sites, she could still benefit when some voters have to realign. At the same time, though, Monmouth found that if the field was limited only to the top-four candidates, Biden would lead with 29 percent, followed by Sanders at 25 percent, Buttigieg at 20 percent, Warren at 19 percent, so it’s unclear just how much room Warren has to gain as a popular second-choice pick.

One other thing to keep in mind that is going on under the hood with these polls is that pollsters are trying to gauge who is actually going to show up and caucus, a process that’s much, much more involved than simply casting a ballot like in a primary. University of Delaware political scientist David Redlawsk recently pointed out that some Iowa polls have small but meaningful differences in the age makeup of their likely caucus-goers, which may play some role in who’s doing better in a given poll. For example, the Iowa State/Civiqs poll found Sanders leading among 18-to-34 year olds with 33 percent while Biden got just 1 percent! But that survey estimated that 47 percent of likely caucus-goers will be under 50 years old, a boon for Sanders’s topline number, whereas the 2016 entrance poll found that just 42 percent of caucus-goers were under the age of 50. Of course, it’s difficult to say who is right when it comes to trying to figure out who is going to show up on Monday — will more young people caucus in 2020 than in 2016? The answer is we won’t really know until caucus night, but it’s just another thing to consider when looking at the topline numbers in these polls.

And while Wednesday was an Iowa-heavy polling day, there was one new national poll from The Economist/YouGov that found the race between Biden and Sanders tightening. In their survey, Biden led Sanders by just 2 points, 26 percent to 24 percent, with Warren in third at 20 percent. This was a strong poll for Sanders, who was at 18 percent in last week’s Economist/YouGov national survey and 28 percent for Biden. There isn’t a sizable house effect for either Biden or Sanders, though Warren tends to do well in Economist/YouGov surveys.

Bottom line: The clock is ticking for Democrats in Iowa. Candidates don’t have much time left to make last-minute appeals and undecided voters can’t vacillate between candidates for much longer either. As recent polls and our forecast show, it’s shaping up to be a very competitive and potentially unpredictable contest — quite possibly the most competitive Iowa caucuses ever.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

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asterinjapan · 5 years

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Lucky day

Good evening again!

Jetlag is still there, but slightly improving. Dinner is proving to be a bit of an obstacle, but apparently nausea is very common with jetlags, so I’ll just grin and bear it then.

Anyway, today was quite a bit busier than I’d planned, even though I got a late start. As it turns out, shops open a lot later in Tokyo than I’m used to. This combined with the fact I’m staying in Tokyo and don’t have to leave super early to be somewhere at a reasonable time means that I can probably get up a bit later tomorrow, hmm.

My initial plan was visiting Nakano Broadway, but most of the shops there open around 12 o’clock, while I was ready to go out by 10. Oops. I just went to Ikebukuro station and decided to pay the Parco building a visit, only to find that the queue in front of the Pokémon Let’s Go pop up café was non-existent today. For reference, yesterday the queue ran down the stairs for two floors and I spotted an estimated waiting time of an hour and a half. What a difference a day makes! (Or, well, it being a week day instead of weekend helped I suppose.)

Since I had some time to kill anyway, I killed some time looking around in the merchandise shop before entering the queue of 2 whole other people.

They put a lot of effort in this café considering it’s only up for like, 3 months? At most? I got an ice latte with Eevee and a glass parfait with Snorlax. The latter was served with a spoon with a picture of a flute attached, and the waitress actually played the appropriate song in order to wake Snorlax up, haha. Like said, they sure put in effort.

I had kind of overestimated how much I could eat again and couldn’t completely finish it, but I felt bad enough anyway about eating such an adorable treat, yikes. I got two super cute stickers as commemoration of my visit here and then went my merry way to the JR part of the station.

Going to Nakano meant a transfer at Shinjuku station, my absolutely favouritest station in the whole of Tokyo! Nay, the whole of Japan! (Yeah, typo intended, I’m being sarcastic. I do not like Shinjuku station. Not at all.) Sigh. Anyway, on my way there I noticed the weather was actually very bright – the forecast had said rain for most of today, but that was clearly not true. And so I decided to stay in Shinjuku for a bit and walk to the Metropolitan Government Building (Tocho).

You see, there’s an observatory on top free of charge, and I kinda wanted to go up this week anyway to see if the view had improved over summer. And indeed it had! Once at the top, I was almost immediately treated to a view of the ever elusive Mount Fuji looming over Tokyo. Combined with the haze over the city and the clouds just below the summit, it made for a surreal scenery. I immediately whipped out my fancy lens and I called my own photos ‘obviously fake’ as I took them, haha. It really kind of looks like I just pasted two photos on top of each other.

Anyway, I was so mesmerized by the Fuji I almost forgot to take my obligatory pictures of the Skytree and Tokyo Tower, so I quickly fixed that and wandered around the shops here for a bit. After a break, a stroll past the windows at a little past 2 revealed that Fuji had gone back into hiding again, meaning I got super lucky having seen it at all. After all, it was indeed rainy for most of the morning, so Fuji can’t have been in sight for more than a couple of hours.

Happy with my photos, I strolled back to the station and hopped over to Nakano station, a couple of minutes removed. Right outside the station is the Nakano Sunmall shopping street, all decked out in illuminations, leading right into Nakano Broadway. Nakano Broadway is basically a 5 story shopping complex for nerds, haha. They sell a ton of comics and related merchandise, including quite some stores specializing in retro series. So if you ever considered going to Akihabara for the merchandise, definitely consider Nakano Broadway as well. There’s also a ton of gachapon – those machines that you can throw a couple of coins in to get a random 1 out of 5 or 6 different figurine or whatever. They sure have interesting stuff – Christmas hat for your cat, anyone? I ended up with a pug in a cup, haha. It’s actually a solid statue, I thought it’d be plastic but no, feels like rock. (I’d aimed for a French bulldog in that set, but meh, a pug is cute too.)

Anyway, I had a lot of fun browsing and tried to contain myself, ending up with just 2 art books. One came out so long ago I’d forgotten I ever wanted it, and the other one I’d given up years ago because it was already impossible to find then. So safe to say, I’m very pleased!

I went to a café for some matcha latte and a piece of cake before going back to Shinjuku station and hop on the Yamanote line there. Next stop, Shimbashi!

You see, most of Tokyo is decked out in Christmas/winter illuminations, but some places put in more effort than others. Near Shimbashi station is Caretta Shiodome, which has quite a spectacular layout, made even more spectacular by the shows they start putting on every 15 minutes after 5 PM. They have two, both themed after Disney movies: this week is Frozen, and within a couple of days, they switch back to Tangled. Basically, music from the movie is played (in the case of Frozen it’s obviously Let It Go, followed by For the First Time in Forever), and the lights start flickering and changing colour in time with the music. I recorded the full thing twice and made some animated gifs out of it, but I’m afraid you have to see the video to really appreciate it. Fingers crossed I can manage to upload that on tumblr, or else I’ll owe you one!

Anyway, that was pretty amazing and I’ll definitely be back later this week for the Tangled version.

It was getting pretty late now, but I still had one more thing to do. I got off at Nippori station on my way back to Ikebukuro and went to the Keisei section of the station. I almost forgot I have a plane back to the Netherlands next week, and I kind of wanted to be sure I had a seat in the Skyliner train to make it to the airport… Anyway, ticket secured, I finally boarded the train again, this time all the way to Ikebukuro. I made the full Yamanote line circle today, haha. (It’s a loop line.)

I got started on my convenience store dinner way too late, oops. My stomach doesn’t really like this salad, but at least I also had some chicken nuggets and eggs, so I’m not completely without food. Shame, though. I’d hoped my stomach was doing better today, but although I can feel improvement, I don’t feel confident enough to go out for lunch or dinner yet.

Oh well. Fingers crossed for tomorrow. At any rate, the weather should definitely be nice tomorrow, so I’ll go for some outdoors sightseeing.

Good night!

#report #report: tokyo 2018 #tokyo 2018

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