Members of Congress who died in office (1790 - 2022)
Total deaths: 1133
Senate: 302
House of Representatives: 831
Average per year: 4.862660944
Senate: 1.296137339
House: 3.566523605
Year of most deaths: 1936 (18 total)
Senate: 1918 (7)
House: 1939 (15; 14 representatives, 1 resident commissioner from Puerto Rico)
Deaths in both chambers, 1790 - 2022
2,0,0,1,2,0,0,1,4,2,1,1,3,2,3,2,2,3,4,2,1,0,2,1,4,4,5,1,2,1,4,4,4,1,5,0,9,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,5,4,5,3,6,4,6,2,8,4,6,4,4,6,7,2,7,1,6,4,3,1,4,7,4,3,2,4,5,2,2,3,5,6,4,2,6,2,3,4,4,8,4,2,5,6,1,4,6,5,4,1,10,3,0,6,6,9,7,7,8,3,2,7,5,10,8,8,8,6,7,6,9,8,12,6,12,10,13,12,6,2,7,11,13,11,5,11,10,17,8,9,7,6,12,13,14,13,13,15,5,7,18,10,7,17,13,16,3,8,8,9,9,8,7,9,6,11,7,6,10,2,8,5,11,7,8,7,6,7,6,4,3,2,4,4,7,6,6,2,1,2,5,1,9,0,2,2,2,5,2,1,4,3,5,3,1,2,3,1,2,0,1,2,2,2,4,3,2,0,0,1,0,6,2,1,2,0,2,2,0,1,1,0,2,2,1,2,3
Mean: 4.82660944206
Median: 4
Mode: 2 (42 times)
Range: 0 - 18
Deaths in the Senate, 1790 - 2022
1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,1,1,1,0,1,2,0,2,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,1,0,1,1,1,1,1,2,0,4,0,0,1,2,1,0,2,0,2,1,1,0,0,3,0,2,2,1,1,1,4,2,0,2,0,2,2,0,1,1,3,2,1,0,3,2,0,1,2,3,1,0,1,1,0,1,0,1,3,1,2,0,2,0,2,1,0,1,0,3,0,0,0,1,3,2,2,3,0,0,3,2,1,2,2,1,0,3,3,1,4,5,2,4,3,4,2,2,0,3,3,7,1,1,2,2,3,3,5,3,1,3,3,2,2,3,4,0,3,5,2,1,2,4,5,0,1,3,5,4,1,2,3,0,3,1,3,6,0,2,1,2,1,2,1,4,2,1,1,1,0,2,1,0,2,1,0,0,0,1,1,3,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,1,0,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,1,0,1,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0
Mean: 1.2961373390558
Median: 1
Mode: 0 (81 times)
Range: 0 - 7
Deaths in the House, 1790 - 2022
1,0,0,0,2,0,0,1,3,1,1,1,2,1,2,2,1,1,4,0,1,0,2,1,2,4,5,0,2,0,3,3,3,0,3,0,5,4,2,1,1,3,4,3,5,2,4,2,6,4,3,2,6,2,5,3,3,2,5,2,5,1,4,2,3,0,3,4,2,2,2,1,3,2,1,1,2,5,4,1,5,2,2,4,3,5,3,0,5,4,1,2,5,5,3,1,7,3,0,6,5,6,5,5,5,3,2,4,3,9,6,6,7,6,4,3,8,4,7,4,8,7,9,10,4,2,4,8,6,10,4,9,8,14,5,4,4,5,9,10,12,11,10,11,5,4,13,8,6,15,9,11,3,7,5,4,5,7,5,6,6,8,6,3,4,2,6,4,9,6,6,6,2,5,5,3,2,2,2,3,7,4,5,2,1,2,4,0,6,0,2,2,2,4,2,1,3,2,5,3,0,1,2,1,2,0,1,2,2,1,3,3,1,0,0,1,0,5,2,0,1,0,1,1,0,0,1,0,1,2,1,2,3
Mean: 3.5665236051502
Median: 3
Mode: 2 (44 times)
Range: 0 - 15
Cumulative deaths, line of best fit (x = year)
Total: y = 5.903216x - 10704.294079
Senate: y = 1.578283x - 2857.541287
House: y = 4.325016x - 7846.905813
When the y-axes are all scaled the same, the graphs are nearly identical, which shows that the number of deaths in the two chambers are roughly correlated (they have similar peaks and troughs, a spike in one usually sees a spike in the other)
Broken down by decade
1790s: 12 deaths, 4 in the senate, 8 in the house (33.3%-66.7%)
1800s: 23 deaths, 8 senate, 15 house (34.8%-65.2%)
1810s: 21, 4, 17 (19.0%-81.0%)
1820s: 35, 11, 24 (31.4%-68.6%)
1830s: 43, 9, 34 (20.9%-79.1%)
1840s: 49, 16, 33 (32.7%-67.3%)
1850s: 40, 14, 26 (35.0%-65.0%)
1860s: 35, 13, 22 (37.1%-62.9%)
1870s: 44, 11, 33 (25.0%-75.0%)
1880s: 40, 7, 33 (17.5%-82.5%)
1890s: 64, 17, 47 (26.6%-73.4%)
1900s: 78, 23, 55 (29.5%-70.5%)
1910s: 97, 29, 68 (29.9%-70.1%)
1920s: 98, 26, 72 (26.5%-73.5%)
1930s: 119, 24, 95 (20.2%-79.8%)
1940s: 90, 28, 62 (31.1%-68.9%)
1950s: 73, 19, 54 (26.0%-74.0%)
1960s: 51, 15, 36 (29.4%-70.6%)
1970s: 39, 8, 31 (20.5%-79.5%)
1980s: 29, 3, 26 (10.3%-89.7%)
1990s: 16, 4, 12 (25.0%-75.0%)
2000s: 19, 4, 15 (21.1%-78.9%)
2010s: 12, 5, 7 (41.7%-58.3%)
2020s: 6, 0, 6 (0.0%-100.0% ongoing)
Cumulative, by decade
1790s: 12, 4, 8 (33.3%-66.7%)
1800s: 35, 12, 23 (34.3%-65.7%)
1810s: 56, 16, 40 (28.6%-71.4%)
1820s: 91, 27, 64 (29.7%-70.3%)
1830s: 134, 36, 98 (26.9%-73.1%)
1840s: 183, 52, 131 (28.4%-71.6%)
1850s: 223, 66, 157 (29.6%-70.4%)
1860s: 258, 79, 179 (30.6%-69.4%)
1870s: 302, 90, 212 (29.8%-70.2%)
1880s: 342, 97, 245 (28.4%-71.6%)
1890s: 406, 114, 292 (28.1%-71.9%)
1900s: 484, 137, 347 (28.3%-71.7%)
1910s: 581, 166, 415 (28.6%-71.4%)
1920s: 679, 192, 487 (28.3%-71.7%)
1930s: 798, 216, 582 (27.1%-72.9%)
1940s: 888, 244, 644 (27.5%-72.5%)
1950s: 961, 263, 698 (27.4%-72.6%)
1960s: 1012, 278, 734 (27.5%-72.5%)
1970s: 1051, 286, 765 (27.2%-72.8%)
1980s: 1080, 289, 791 (26.8%-73.2%)
1990s: 1096, 293, 803 (26.7%-73.3%)
2000s: 1115, 297, 818 (26.6%-73.4%)
2010s: 1127, 302, 825 (26.8%-73.2%)
2020s: 1133, 302, 831 (26.7%-73.3%, ongoing)
The number of senators and representatives has grown significantly over the centuries. In 1790 there were only 26 senators and 65 representatives (28.6%-71.4%), but since 1963 there have been 100 senators and 435 representatives (18.7%-81.3%). The proportion of deaths has remained steady at the pre-1963 levels, so even though there are proportionally fewer senators, that chamber seems to have a higher death rate. Let's see how we can account for that
Cumulative, since 1960
1960s: 51, 15, 36 (29.4%-70.6%)
1970s: 90, 23, 67 (25.6%-74.4%)
1980s: 119, 26, 96 (21.8%-78.2%)
1990s: 135, 30, 105 (22.2%-77.8%)
2000s: 154, 34, 120 (22.1%-77.9%)
2010s: 166, 39, 127 (23.5%-76.5%)
2020s: 172, 39, 133 (22.7%-77.3%)
That's much closer to the 19%-81% we'd expect today, it'll just take a few decades for the total number of deaths to reflect the now standard 100-435 congress (the senate grows by 2 every time we admit a new state, the last of which was in 1959, but the house stopped growing in the 1920s because rural conservatives didn't want urban areas to gain more seats, so we've been stuck at 435 for a century; we briefly had 437 from 1959 to 1963 because congress only redraws the maps after the census and didn't want to take seats away from other states mid-decade. They just added two until the 1962 redistricting cycle could bring it back down to 435)
Only 15 of the last 233 years have seen zero congressional deaths; 1791, 1792, 1795, 1796, 1811, 1825, 1888, 1979, 1995, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011, 2014, and 2017
Deaths peaked in the early 20th century and have plateaued to near zero in the last 30 years. I don't know why, but if I had to guess I'd say members of congress have had access to better healthcare post-World War II.
13 members of Congress were killed in office. 4 of them died in duels, 1 died in battle during the Civil War, 1 was killed by the Jonestown cultists in Guyana, 1 had his plane shot down by the Soviets (nearly causing WWIII), and of the remaining 6 only 2 were particularly noteworthy, Huey Long and Bobby Kennedy, both of whom were running for president to the left of an incumbent they famously butted heads with (funny how that works out).
Google says there have been 12421 total members of congress since the legislative branch first convened in 1789. 1133 out of 12421 is about 9.1%, and 13 of 12421 is 0.1%, which means congress is significantly safer than the presidency; 8 out of 46 presidents have died in office (17.4%), 4 by assassination (8.7%)
The most recent Senator to die was John McCain of Arizona in 2018, after which his seat saw an appointment, a resignation, another appointment, a special election, and just this month a general election to finalize his successor for the next full term.
The most recent Representative to die was Don Young of Alaska back in March. Incumbent Democrat Nick Begich's airplane disappeared in the Alaskan wilderness one month before the 1972 election, but he still posthumously defeated Young; Young would go on to win the special election to fill his vacancy the following year. He was the last sitting member of congress elected during the Nixon administration, and his seat flipped blue just this summer in a three-way special election between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III (the latter two are COMPLETELY FUCKING INSANE). There was a three-way rematch in the general election this month, and while Peltola has pulled way ahead, the seat hasn't been called yet because she didn't get 50% in the first round. Unlike in Georgia where they hold an entirely new runoff election, Alaska has a ranked-choice system where the first and second place finishers advance and all the other losers' votes are redistributed to the winners until someone reaches 50%, "if my guy doesn't win, then I want this guy to win instead. If neither of them win, then this guy," and so on and so forth.
I've gotten off topic.
My point is that the House and Senate are both as close to being deadlocked 50-50 as they have ever been in their entire history. A tie in the House is impossible because there are an odd number of seats, but the number of vacancies that open up each year has fluctuated well beyond what would be needed to flip the current and incoming Houses to the other side. Republicans are gonna win a slim majority, 220-215, give or take, so if 3 or more republican representatives from competitive districts died, then the House could flip for the Democrats. This is HIGHLY UNLIKELY, but it would be SO FUCKING SATISFYING to see Kevin McCarthy be Speaker for less than a year. The House has never been as competitive as the Senate, but if enough vacancies opened up in 2023 they would be nationally televised races. 2007 saw four Republican deaths, 1988 saw four Democratic deaths, so it could go either way.
I haven't broken down any of the charts by party because the ideological shifts of the 20th century make it difficult to tell who was on which side (Democrats dominated both chambers from the 1930s to the 1990s, but a lot of them were conservative Dixiecrats who supported Republican presidents, so the party lines were blurred until Gingrich's revolution solidified the modern red states and blue states)
1918 saw SEVEN senator deaths! Can you imagine the historical impact if we had 7 special elections in quick succession today? It would be insane! They would be the most expensive races ever run, they would be thermonuclear, no holds barred, no pulled punches, tooth and nail fights to the death when the fate of the judiciary hangs in the balance (as long as Democrats hold it, Biden gets to fill vacancies as fast as they come open, but if Republicans flip it then he gets none, zero, zilch, nada, and all those openings will be held for federalist society nazis the moment Republicans win back the presidency)
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