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nkossovan · 4 years

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Many of Us Will Be “Reformed Consumers” … Post-COVID19 Businesses will Feel the Pain

For the foreseeable future, you and I will not be the same consumers we were back this past February.

COVID19 has been for many, especially for those who were in the middle of chasing the "American Dream," a lifestyle edema.

Thanks to COVID19 having halted retail, travel and going out, I have come to realize that what I do need is a lot more of what I do not need. I now see restaurants and shopping mall visits as time and money I spent chasing stuff and experiences I thought would bring me happiness.

These past 3 months, I wake up to quiet time, do some reading, and think about the direction and priorities in my life. I have been going for walks, spending a lot more time with my wife and listening, really listening. Because COVID19 has stripped them out, I am discovering what I do not need. Restaurants (Post COVID19 my wife and I frequented local restaurants no less than 2 times per week, never spending less than $75.00 per visit.)? I am now enjoying the process of planning and cooking meals, which I find therapeutic. Weird, I know. I had forgotten that cleaning up after a meal gives a sense of accomplishment. Shopping? I could not even estimate how many times I bought something and then realize I do not really need it, or it did not live up to the expectations I had of how much it would change my life.

COVID19 has purged much of the noise in my life.

COVID19 is a powerful lesson in disruption.

With your spending options severely limited and not driving as much, you may be going through the same thing as you realize how much money you have been saving these past few months. Most likely social distancing has forced you to evaluate your relationships and friendships. The experience of not having the negativity and drama some people in your life is a relief. On the flip side, you might be now realizing how important a particular person is to you.

Many of us are currently wrestling with "needs vs. wants". Out of financial necessity, "needs" seems to be winning for now.

As restrictions are lifted it will be interesting to see what happens. When we start becoming more confident going out in public, or if a vaccine is ever developed, will we go right back to old behaviours, mindlessly consuming in an attempt to buy happiness, social acceptance and relationships. Will, many of us, go back to chasing the "American Dream," or will we make a permanent change in how we choose to consume?

Keep in mind COVID19 has not been eradicated, it still exists amongst us. I would speculate the fear of getting COVID19, being laid off or losing their job, strategically mitigating negative impacts on one's personal finances due to a drop in income, and witnessing firsthand how unstable our economy is, will be foremost concerns consumers will have for the foreseeable future. The next priority will be their safety, when commuting, at work, at home and in public. For those who want to be in control of their financial future, and health, lining up for a sale, or eating out, will be a distant afterthought.

Undeniably most businesses have experienced a dramatic reduction in revenue. Therefore, the question, at least for the balance of 2020, is what percentage of business decline can businesses tolerate and for how long? It is fair to say a 10% decline in transactions would put most big and small businesses deep in the red. Survival will depend on a business owner or management's tolerance for risk and debt. As businesses relaunch, it will be the choices they make that will be the difference between surviving 2020 Q3 & Q4 or closing their doors.

Here's what I believe is essential:

Strict adherence to PPE safety practices.

Building trust with employees and consumers that your place of business is safe.

Creating a new customer experience that mutes the Covid19 fear.

Create theatre of the mind, which refocused your message that you have repainted the future.

For employees rewrite company vision and mission for the repainted future.

Creatively finding ways to lower costs without sacrificing service.

Embrace that, for the most part, stores are now showrooms, and e-commerce is the selling platform. All businesses, not just retailers, need to have a robust online presence, which includes an easy to purchase experience coupled with an uncomplicated return policy.

Businesses need to wrap their head around being better than just the convenience of delivery and need to create a company-wide culture where every sale is a big deal.

Above all, businesses should presume there will be a second COVID19 wave and begin strategizing for when this happens (most likely in the early days of autumn).

Much of the economy will never go back to how they were before; at least not in time for those employees affected to continue to maintain any semblance of their 1st world lifestyle. Entire industries have been obliterated by COVID19's wrecking ball. Knowing the difference between which industries have a good chance of coming back, and which ones have been wiped out for good, is crucial right now. This is not a time for wishful thinking.

A prime example is with theatres shut down, filmmakers had to finally pull the trigger and release movies online. This is the end of the movie theatre. Since the commercialization of television, and then online streaming many years later, theatres have been dying from death by a thousand cuts. According to Box Office Mojo, in 2019, Americans went to the movies less than any time since the 1920s. Those who were not choosing to regularly watch movies at home pre-COVID19 are doing so now and enjoying the convenience and safety of doing so. Those holding out have been converted. Three years from now, theatres will go the way of record stores and DVD rental stores.

The demise of the department store is a given. Online shopping was a disruptor. Many retailers did not take how much consumers wanted the convenience of shopping online seriously and came to the table late in the game. The lockdowns forced many consumers to buy online for the first time.

I imagine millions of first-time online shoppers are having an epiphany right now. They pressed a button, and a parcel shows up at their door a few days later and probably said to themselves, "Wow, why haven't I done this before?"

You may have been anti-Amazon, but that was before being forced to experience their online shopping experience. COVID19 is a massive win for those businesses that had created post-COVID19, an online shopping experience that consumers felt comfortable with.

The same survival principles hold true for restaurants. To continue operating, restaurants will need to create a business model that speaks to fewer patrons dining at their establishments and customers doing takeout and delivery.

Sadly, thousands of retail shops and restaurants will not be reopening their doors after the lockdown.

Is retail ever safe?

The education industry, especially after post-secondary, will need to shift to e-Learning. Those institutions that deliver an engaging online learning experience will be the winners in this arena.

As more people work from home, they will question the need for having the expense of own a vehicle, which is now just mostly parked. Using Uber and Lyft, and renting for longer trips, would make more financial sense. Who wins? Who loses?

Speaking of winner and losers, Zoom, one of the world's leading video conferencing platforms, has seen exponential growth due to COVID19. A new market of people had no choice but to use a video conferencing platform since they are now working from home. Gen-Xers and older had always gravitated to face-to-face meetings before they were forced to work from home. I think business travel will drop significantly, given the cost-savings of videoconferencing over travelling to a meeting.

The hospitality industry is facing what I call an existential threat. The nature of their service has too many human touchpoints to be able to comfortably mitigate the risk of getting COVID19. As well it is dependent on disposable income. Predicting the travel industry will be skeletal in size compared to what it once was is not a stretch.

At minimum business need to consider:

Problem-solution fit: Design value propositions that directly address your current and potential customer pain points.

Distribution channel: Get your product/service in a timely and health safe, manner.

Customer segment(s): Find, or create, niches. Don't try to be everything to everybody.

Revenue model: Pivot to how your customers are now more comfortable interacting with your business (takeout, delivery, curbside pick up) and rework your revenue streams accordingly.

Cost structure: Lower your fixed (renegotiate your rent), and variable (payroll) costs as much as possible.

Marketing channels: Think where your customers, and potential customers, hang out and build your presence there.

On another note, people and governments need to accept the fact that for a large portion of their respective population, the employment landscape has forever changed. A travel agent will no longer be able to pay their bills with their old job. The same if you are an event planner, server or personal trainer. There are thousands of other examples.

COVID19's economic destruction has undeniably caused many business and industry causalities. We are now entering a new world order. Businesses who have the creativity, the inner courage and foresight to adapt and accommodate what will be new consumer behaviour will not merely survive but will thrive.

#covid-19 #business #lockdown #coronapocalypse #consumerism

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blessedyuki · 7 years

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Noragami Chapter 72 Analysis

No matter how much pain the last arc brought us, at least we could all agree on our interpretation of the events: the situation was bad. Things are different now. Chapter 72 (temporarily?) resolves the conflict, but it also raises some flags for other things that might come as a result of this. Of course we can just focus on the positive and ignore these things for now. In my case, I can’t.

I think it’s quite funny that the most shared panel of this chapter is also the one that encapsulates the current division in the fandom:

Some are happy to see Yato finally smile, and some say he looks dead inside. To me, it’s a mixture of both. At this point, and after what he’s been through, I’ll take any smile from him. It’s not necessarily a fake smile either, but it’s a forced one. It’s a smile of relief, but it’s also one that Yato doesn’t quite seem to believe himself. I think it’s also quite telling that it happens right after Hiyori and Yukine make an attempt to cheer him up. Even though he tries to keep it together for most of the chapter for everyone else’s sake, it’s quite obvious that he’s not OK.

Meaning, he believes it’s his fault Yukine ended up in the box, and it’s eating away at him. Hiyori says what we're all thinking: he did help. In fact, if it wasn’t for the type of person he’s become for this past year, he wouldn’t have gotten help from Tenjin, Ebisu and Daikoku. However, that’s not enough to him as Yato insists on how powerless he felt during those moments. And even when Yukine is the one trying to convince him otherwise, Yato just brushes it off, and apologizes for his rant. Yeah, totally sincere.

How will Heaven take this defeat?

Putting aside the fact that Yato’s side won and everyone survived, the whole thing was resolved fairly quickly. Perhaps too quickly. In fact, there were many things that happened off screen in this chapter. Granted, some of those are understandable as they would be redundant or wouldn’t add a lot of value. Kazuma’s ablution happening off-screen is not that strange either, as every ablution except for Yukine’s has had the same treatment. Furthermore, I think Adachitoka are intentionally leaving us in the dark when it comes to Bishamon and Kazuma. However, one thing that needed to be shown (and I’m sure it will) is the repercussions of Heaven being found in the wrong. The series has usually been very secretive when it comes to the higher ups of Heaven, but that’s one thing that could change after this arc. I also expect to see some scenes with Father and Mizuchi. I’m really interested in what his thoughts are regarding Yato’s actions and everything that went down. Will he change his approach? Will he try to convince Yaboku again?

These are all reasons why I’m not making any assumptions yet. I believe we have to wait for a couple more chapters to fully grasp the implications of the events that took place in this past arc. And then there’s the things that did happen in this chapter, but that we had to really pay attention to see. As Nana pointed out, the chapter had many “realization moments". There’s a very clear context between the text (everyone being alive and happy, Heaven being wrong...) and the subtext (ominous foreshadowing, whatever’s going on inside Yato’s head...). Before delving into these uncertainties, let’s take a look at the things that were confirmed, and what they could mean for the future:

The Three Sacred Regalia cannot die. Like many of us assumed, Heaven’s Three Sacred Regalia can reincarnate. In a different way than Gods do, Tenjin adds. I also concur with what nanielavnz said on this topic, so I recommend reading that post for more insight on this.

Arahabaki is Nana's previous master. The mystery is finally solved. Arahabaki’s the one Nana referred to as “Aya-sama”, and he’s also on Yato’s side (they even have nicknames for each other and that’s hella cute). As an Emishi god, Arahabaki can provide tons of exposition that, so far, we only got from characters like Tenjin, Iwami or Father. We can also expect the Emishi war to continue being relevant, even more so now that there’s probably discord in the Heavens. I’m just really excited about Arahabaki and Takemikazuchi joining Yato’s team, and the new dynamics this is going to bring. If Yato’s going to go to war anytime soon, he’ll certainly need all the allies he can get. Arahabaki refers to Nana as his “daughter”, and like many others, I believe he means that in an adoptive sense (you could also see this is as yet another parallel to Yato an Yukine and how they’re like father and son). Finally, Nana being upset and conflicted is understandable, but then again so are Arahabaki’s actions. I’m still not sure on what to think of Nana’s future either. While Yato and Bishamon might have been pardoned, Nana should still be locked away. If that’s the case, then I’m guessing Arahabaki will have to take Nana and leave somewhere else, even if he cannot be her master anymore. Which brings me to the next point

Gods cannot rename a Shinki they have previously released. Not even with a different incarnation. This information does not only give more meaning to previous events (mainly, Bishamon hesitating to revoke Kazuma’s name, and refusing to release Tsuguha), but it also raises some flags for Yukine and Yato’s relationship. That does not mean Adachitoka will act on them (it would be a very drastic change in the series), but it’s certainly going to influence Yato’s actions in regards to what he does with Yukine. Don’t forget we come from an arc that has pretty much confirmed Yato’s fears that he cannot change his nature as a God of Depravity and that he only brings disaster to those around him. If he truly believes he’s to blame for Yukine’s state, chances are he might consider stepping away and revoking Yukine’s name to save him. On the other hand, if Yato refuses to release him (or even worse - if Yukine begs him not to), then the only option left would be going to the person who seems to know more about Karma: Father. Why would Father help them? Because he could blackmail Yato into saving Yukine in exchange for making him his Shinki. Don’t forget it’s always been one of Father’s goals to make Yukine his. And what’s one of the things Yukine would hate the most? To become a nora. Whatever ends up happening, I’m sure it’s no coincidence Adachitoka decided to reveal this information the same chapter that Yukine goes through the same thing Tsuguha did. I can only hope Nana being mad at Arahabaki for abandoning her does not become yet anoher parallel for Yato and Yukine.

Hafuri: Always on the losing end

Did you notice? In an arc that’s focused so much on the whole blessed/burial vessel debate, the biggest losers are Yukine, Kazuma, and Nana.

Once again, we got no information whatsoever on what the exact consequences are for Bishamon and Kazuma. We only know they’re bad. Bishamon survived, but she’s borderline comatose. Kazuma has left, but we don’t know where, if he has a goal/destination in mind, or if he’s even planning to return at all. On top of that, everyone’s currently too worried about their own problems to go look for him. The thing is, him coming back at some point, apologizing, and being accepted back by Bishamon has already been done. They had an entire arc dedicated to them and their communication problems. And while I understand bringing their relationship back in an arc that focuses so much on Hafuri, what negative consequences could there be this time if it’s not death for either of them? I don’t think Kazuma is on a suicide mission because then he could have simply offered his head during the covenant. Kuraha speculates that the reason he blighted Bishamon was because he “knowingly did something wrong”. It’s possible that the “wrong thing” he did was to decide to abandon Bishamon. His next act after getting corrupted was to go up to Bishamon one last time to try to save her, only for her to push him off. Now that the whole thing has been resolved and that Bishamon should be fine, he’s decided to walk away for good because he believes he’s failed as Bishamon’s guidepost. Once again, the theme of “walking away to protect someone”.

There’s little I can say about Yukine that hasn’t been said already. He’s currently suffering from PTSD both from the box, and from his past. This is a very unstable situation: the moment one of those flashbacks includes his human name, he’s done for.

There’s also something that I have been wondering for a while: where will Yato take Yukine in the meantime? They currently live at Kofuku’s, and Yato can disguise Yukine’s state as post-battle exhaustion + the trauma of being locked away. However, it’s only a matter of time before Daikoku realizes something else is wrong with him. Yato can tell Kofuku what’s going on, but there’s another Shinki in that house. And we have just recently seen that, no matter how much Kofuku loves Yato and Yukine, she won’t risk Daikoku. Is it finally time to temporarily go to that tiny land Yato got in Takamagahara? Of course, this is only assuming that he doesn’t go straight to Fujisaki like I mentioned before (he knows where he lives, after all).

New year, new arc

Kinda. Noragami keeps expanding and escalating the story arc after arc. Even though we didn’t have any major losses out of this arc as we were promised, we didn’t leave empty-handed either plot-wise. There’s new characters, character development for Takemikazuchi/Kiun, Amaterasu, reforging of friendships... and, what’s most important, a huge crisis in Heaven that might as well start a cold war.

Chapter 72 brings a happy resolution, yes, but it’s only because we’re looking at it from the perspective of what happened in chapters 70-71. The thing is, even though Yato’s side won the covenant, they got nothing good out of this. All this mess started because Bishamon wanted to defeat the sorcerer. She didn’t achieve that. And, in return, she got badly injured, Kazuma left her, and Yukine’s in a very bad state. It’s a “won the battle, lost the war” kind of situation.

Judging by that “but how many scars have been left behind…!?” part from the short preview of chapter 73 , it appears that we haven’t gotten the full picture yet. I have said many times that this arc is a turning point for the series (if you’re into One Piece, I like to refer to it as ”the Marineford of Noragami” lol). Even though Yato might still not have many followers, he’s no longer an unknown God (Amagiri-no-Mikoto, huh?), and that’s bound to change things. And Yato might have allies and friends with him, but he’s feeling more hopeless than ever. It reminds me of how hopeless he felt after Ebisu died in the Yomi arc. Coincidentally, that arc also involved Heaven (and Amaterasu), and brought a lot of change for the series. So I say expect lots of change. This it not really a resolution - just a short break.

#noragami #noragami manga #noragami spoilers #analysis #speculation #hello yes i'm here to deliver the pain

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