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#it’s not impossible to find my other accts but like.
higgs-the-god · 9 months
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And if I deleted……. Who would notice…..
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caruliaa · 1 year
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no offence but why are all the solutions to issues caused by trauma therapy. what if i Cant do that right but still want to not be like this.
#like why is this website like 'analyze what u think the cause of this issue is if u think its a childhood trauma get therapy for ur trauma#if not then do xyz thing thats much easier than having access to therapy'#like is there an xyz for when the root is trauma. please plese please. at least tell me im allowed to talk to ppl abt it#idk if its smart for me to do that or not#im actually getting kind of like. rly upset suddenly like idk#like i feel like the step one i keep being presented in healing and getting better with issues caused by trauma is.#not being in the situation that caused the trauma. but it feels so impossible for me to ever get out#and im just trying to do what i can to like. heal or deal with it as much as i can but ik thats not much when im still in tht situation#and feel so trapped in it#like just. ugh such a selfish thing to say abt an issue tht affects so many others sm worse than me#but like. couldnt late stage capitalism and the recession its brings with it not have happened like. 20 yrs from now#so i didnt have to deal with the fact that getting out of my traumatic situation is impossible alongside the traumatic situation#just idk. it all sucks sm and i just wanna get out of it. can we please find a way to make tumblr accts private so#i can fianlly start a facking yt without weirdos deciding the interactions w freinds and vent posts i use this acct for#are their entertainment bc ithink having a 'job' saying my silly little thoguhts abt media online is my only hope love and light#flappy rambles
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idsb · 2 years
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what’s your twitter?
I'm not connecting the two lol I'm sorry, I was being vague for a reason. if you have it you have it if you can find it you can find it (and people have; with some intelligent google searches idk if it's difficult) but not with my help unless we're mutuals and talk about it
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idk if ill msg u on ur bday anymore im super conflicted abt it and U in general and i dont think i like should try and get back into ur life but i also like idk i wanna check in plus like i dont want u to think im gonna forget jt or somethin so idk idk idk idk what im gonna do idk if i want to know u anymore but idk if i like can live anymore without u so idk what im even doing ahahahah
idk everything abt everything sucks i hate u but i miss u and when i think abt u i can feel my chest rotting out but i also like just continuously yearn for having u back and i like every other day am so completely suicidal that i feel like i meed to msg u just to get some sort of stability thru u back but idk if thats what i Need but i also know i am like a complete mess i have nothing but u were never going to be able to be anything to me anyways and so like
idk anything… i feel u are a lost cause but i dont want to think that but i think i Should think that but then i know i have like nothing .. so….. i think my life wouldve been better if i did kms like 4 years ago or if all my psychosis incidents actually did make me schizophrenic already cause atleast then maybe i could like find sollace in knowing i am completey fucked and will never have a life and itll be okay because i was crazy but rn i like am too vlose to being like not mentally fucked but also so incredibly burdened by my own mind that i am like
Always on the cusp of it and so i like i feel like a boat just too big and light to ever get sucked into a whirlpool but just stuck spinning and the only way oht would be to try and swim but thats like a 99% chance of me dying and i like as much as id love to escape life and knowing i will never be able to retain any real human contact or relationships and never be able to really wver feel happy and content because of how i always fuck up every thing i have with anyone i would rather atleast like feel like maybe oneday ill have something but it feels impossible for me to ever like
be anything, either for myself or for someone else. i am too depressed and completely checked out in life to make any of my own dreams a reality and everytime im with someone and want to help make their dreams something i find a way to like fumble hard and end up alone
only reason i havent commited soduko yet is social anxiety of finding a bridge and idk what my suicide note would be to ppl, idk if id even wanna leave my family anything because i am sort of checked out of them emotionally but u and blake like atleast Knew me but idk what id say to either of u, thanks for atleast talking to me ahahahah but also fuck u both for not being perfect which is like INSANE mentality but like i also am completely unperfect and cant even like say anything so idk idk idk, idek what id say to blake he was atleast always a good person i just fucked up a lot and wouldnt settle down but for U misha like, idk.
i hate u but love u.. and ik if i told u i was gonna kms itd fuck u up or atleast id Hope ud be able to feel somethin abt it, hope u stleast stalk my accts or something and arent just like completey detatched feom the past 2 years already, i hope u miss me too.. i hope u feel something too, i hope u arent moved on i just want to know u loved me its been ao long since i felt any affection from u even before we ended everything
why couldnt u just talk abt ur peoblems anymore u said it was a bad thing that u didnt feel like u clukd talk to me but like that was 100% all u all u had to ever do was Try to talk abt it but u just clammed up like u alway do and never opened vack up and ig just locked urself away by ur own anxiety and ur problems just compiled and u never like tries to resolve shit and ik i wasnt oerfect at all like helping u and Us get thru stuff sometimes but thats cause all ur problems were always like.
i want the freedom of being able to be with other ppl ahahahaha and like then u harked on me like i was gonna be the one to cheat and shit when like ALL ur problems was ALWAYS like U wanting to.. and its so fucking stupid like bro why do u think i was so angry abt our breakup and ur reasons cause like all u ever wanted to do was be away from me and then u were like Wow.. i cant believe u talked to blake.. bro thats cause u like made it impossible to talk abt anything with u, u stopped being a person to me u stopped like even trying anymore and then tried to make it up as me having failed and thats why we ended when u just couldnt care enough to get over urself and ur stupid shit to just open up to me anymore and just like wanting to try and thats what i hate abt u u always made me feel like i was mever good enough to even talk to u and then ud just do the worst shit and always cause ruckus in our relationship and then u stopped even wanting to try n resolve shit because it was always U at the center of the problems because U couldnt fucking control urself u always did so much shot without thinking and IIII always felt like the impulsive one even tho u would just like ausefhhgsghh why fi i love u why fo i miss u why cant i just be done with this shit and accept that there was no way wed ever work in a million years why cant i stop being tortured why cant i just be dead
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seoafin · 3 years
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yuuta is likely not questioning his ties to gojou bc it was gojou in the first place who left him with the higher-ups and likely encouraged him to travel abroad. it's possible yuuta no longer feels a sense of responsibility to gojou and yuuta has always been one to act with his heart first, and his heart tells him his friend (inumaki) has been hurt. and this isn't something yuuta can accept. yuuta has the power to act, now, and he will.
i wonder if yuuta's motivation for executing yuuji isn't just revenge (or avenging), but an attempt to find a way to heal inumaki. it's not like yuuta's desperate to work for the higher-ups, it's just the way things are rn and he needs them for his own devices. is it possible he's still working according to gojou's plan? or does he have his own goal separate from the civil war i think is going to happen anytime soon. his immediate goal really seems to be to hunt yuuji down tho lol and smth to do with inumaki
i’m also wondering why shoko wasn't implicated? if i was the paranoid higher-ups, i'd want to cover all my bases, including her who's known to be close to gojou and getou as their peer, as also yaga's former student. i guess they can't afford to lose their doctor in a war, or... (YKW AKUTAMI PLS DONT JINX THIS ONE)
and inumaki’s too far after sukuna’s DE. and it’s just impossible for him to run that fast from the radius if that one map represents the time during sukuna’s DE. he was the only one...in that area. v v easy victim for a quick abduct and decapitation if u ask me. or—he got caught up along the edge of sukuna's "taking megumi into acct” 140m radius DE, the cuts sukuna inflicts are near impossible to heal and the seals are there to keep inumaki from bleeding out, if not emergency aid. BUT THE HIGHER UPS ARE SO SUS
ALSO it's not like yuuta’s incapable of understanding inimaki, so supposing yuuta saw inumaki in person and that inumaki and he were able to communicate, it's likely yuuta knows exactly what happened. he knows he's being manipulated. he's just made it clear he doesn't care.
and the title,, jjk 137: 堅白同異
堅白. gongsun long basically deals in the metaphysical "unviserals"
堅白論 "on hardness & whiteness" = a hard and white stone is 2 entities; basically a hard and white stone can only be a hard stone or a white stone. there’s no "stoneness" of a stone, only the "hardness" of a stone preceived through touch and the "whiteness" of a stone through sight. considering his white horse dialogue, it shld be a hard and white stone is three entities, but i’m not sure either.
basically, he was very particular about names and how they refer to things. all things exist with or without names, but without names there is disorder and no understanding and, thus, no universals or particulars. additionally, the hardness and the whiteness of the stone don’t exist together — u can’t see "hardness" nor touch "whiteness", so gongsun long is like... they are "hiding" from each other so how can one say they are inseparable, such as in "a hard and white stone".
*head in hands* i can't tell if this is referring to the new yuuta or the new rika or the new rika in relation to yuuta or the other way around or yuuta in relation to being a shaman who works for his own interests while working for the higher-ups supposedly...... what am i even saying
sum philosophy stuff, but it does mean sophistry according to jpn dictionaries from what i've seen.
堅白 (jian bai) — from 公孙龙's gongsun long’s jian bai on similarities & differences (堅白論)
同異 (tong yi) — from hui shi’s contract differences (合同异)
all i got from hui shi's he tong yi is that there are similarities in differences and differences in similarities and everything is "relative", but there also is the "absolute". apparently gongsun long's and hui shi's studies were pitted against each other or sth only to be found that they complemented each other ?? IDK
gongsun said that universals are separate entities in perception, hui shi said that the concept of differences are inseparable
堅白同異 means sophistry then does it also reference how yuuji's body is neither "yuuji's" nor "sukuna's" and how there's now a little bit of yuuji in sukuna and vice versa.
i saw someone on reddit say that this refers to yuuta and his opinion on yuji. he only knows of yuji as 'hard' (a vessel for a curse that can kill/harm people) but does not know yet of 'white' yuji (a kind, loving person who wants to be good). later he'll see that both can exist. i also think the "hardness/whiteness" reference is more to the situation in general and yuuji. abt who is telling the story and relaying information. it was mentioned in goodwill event that tokyo folks have a different view of yuuji bc they know him as a person. he’s just a curse to others
on the one hand, gongsun put forward the idea of "li jianbai (离坚白)", and on the other hand, he also put forward the concept of similarities and differences and similarities in differences.
ALSO gojou’s exile is v v similar to sugawara no michizane 🧍
the subtle concept of wu-wei (yin-yang) is def here v v contrasting against western perception of good and evil, akutami did his homework and now there’s too many things in my mind,,, the way i revisited gongsun longzi today for the first time in years bc of jjk,,, the same way i revisited philosophy for this danmei i'm reading LOL. anyways chinese philosphy always make my braincells hurt 😔 so take this with a grain of salt - 🐱
YES!!! I AGREE!!
i’ve seen a lot of posts talking about what’s going to happen if inumaki says he doesn’t want revenge on yuji, but there weren’t any posts about how maybe yuuta doesn’t care!!! i saw a theory on reddit that maybe the sophistry title is about yuuta being manipulated, knowingly or unknowingly?? we’ll find out later
if shoko gets implicated i will pass away. there’s too much angst happening already 😭 but at the same time i do think she’s too valuable for the higher ups to punish her because they need her. even yaga said so
Once again...akutami's mind.....
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lanasaved · 5 years
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helo it is me nai!!! sry fr the mix up i actually dropped bradley bt she was my main acct so i had to move lana over as my main n therefore it jst seemed easier to repost my intro so i’d have it here. ANYWAY! more abt this atrocious thot down below
p.s. her pinterest is here if u like that stuff
( nai. 22. gmt. she/her. ) it might be HER SOPHOMORE year but I still think LANA JAMESON looks exactly like KRISTINE FROSETH and sometimes I think the CIS-FEMALE is actually them. Of course I’m wrong, as they’re 22 and studying DANCE while living in AUDAX here at Lockwood. The GEMINI can be rather EXUBERANT and ALLURING, but also kind of CHILDISH and UNRELIABLE. Their most played song on Spotify was DANCING ON MY OWN by ROBYN, so I think that says a lot.
she’s local to the NY area i jst havent decided where exactly she grew up tbh. probably somewhere upstate
okAY so her mum is an old money socialite / three time campaign model way back when n her dad is a big record label mogul. he owns a label called jameson records n they repped a few rly big rock bands back in the eighties, altho they’re mostly known for ‘poppy injects’ whose lead singer had a big heroin scandal tht brought down his career. lana p much grew up around musicians snorting lines instead of spooning down cereal fr breakfast n her parents were v much absent her whole life
they’re pretty well off obviously n bc of her relation to such a big music industry figure she’s hung out w a fair few relatively high rep ppl thru her teens. she amassed kind of an instagram following mainly fr her style (v penny lane-esque, lots of fur cuff trimmed jackets, pastel faux fur coats, seventies style platforms, flame red cowboy boots, fishnet tights n glitter galore) n bc she’s undeniably Very Pretty
her parents always kind of jst… didn’t like her. it was v clear that she was an accident after her older brother caleb n that even when they just had him alone they weren’t cut out for parenthood. they always kind of jst… ignored her n hoped she’d go away. she had to mke herself microwave meals when she ws only like 12 bc they’d forget to get her anything. once she went like 6 days without her mum even looking her in the eyes once
despite this tho!!! she’s always been insanely close w her brother caleb. he’s her whole world. thts why when he decided to sign up to the army she ws understandably scared bt supported him regardless. bt THEN he wound up getting discharged under grounds of severe ptsd when he witnessed his best friend die in an explosion tht took place in a shock raid. caleb returned home n he was never the same n lana kind of felt like he’d died out there too. he’s in n out of hospital a lot n it’s rly hard on her bt she doesn’t tlk abt it to anyone rly
growing up lana was always a huge social butterfly. jst literally…. knew Everyone n everyone definitely knew her. she ws one of those girls tht ws kind of impossible to ignore or forget. very animated, always made u feel like u were the centre of the universe whenever she spoke to u, always made it feel like u were best friends even if ud only spoken to her once. she has this magnetic way abt her tht is kind of hard to find in real life. it’s something ud only rly expect out of a movie character
she’s always been insatiably spontaneous n adventurous. always doing something weird n wild every weekend. she has ten thousand stories tht always earn a laugh or a gasp over how ridiculously absurd they r
ANYWAY so after caleb got back he was rly withdrawn n depressed. he shut lana out n was kind of harsh to her a lot of the time, always telling her to leave him alone or pushing her away. it didnt help either tht lana had a rly traumatic experience w some of her dad’s colleagues at the label when she ws 16 n he was away n she cldnt even tell him abt it once he was bk bc of his own traumas. she kind of jst shut it all in n kept it to herself
this obviously?? made her spiral a lot. she was already a girl tht loved sex (she’d only rly done foreplay before tho) but since her trauma it got…. completely out of hand. it got to a point where she couldnt rly go 2 days without it, probably not even 1. her lowest point has probably been scrolling thru craiglist for anonymous encounters n meeting up w strangers on there fr a quick fuck jst for the thrill even tho it’s insanely dangerous n she cld wind up getting herself killed. it’s v clear at this point tht she has a sex addiction whether she’s ever admitted it or not. in fact she’s so… shameless in her endeavours tht she’s actually currently having an affair w her ballet instructor tanya who’s engaged to b married
she also currently? is working as a cam girl. she found this website bc she trawls… porn stuff a lot n she wound up applying to work as one bc she thought it’d b fun n wld earn her some disposal income (even tho she frankly doesn’t need it bc she’s already well off). the guy tht manages all of the girls on the site is kind of suspect n it’s a whole plot i’m gna unravel where it’s actually like the front for a cult or something wild so. stay posted ig. KGJDKGJH
PERSONALITY/SOME FUN FACTS: uncontrollably flirty. boundlessly confident. cld make a joke out a paper bag n her comedy is sometimes surreal / absurd. she tends to laugh when she feels like crying n has a smile brighter than a ray of texas sunshine. always dapples her fingers thru the breeze when she’s driving in a car w the window down. her fav book as a child used to b alice in wonderland n she’d fantasise abt having her own little wonderland too where everyone knew her name n asked her things n took her on adventures. at the time it didn’t rly strike her how evident it was tht that was bc she was so lonely. she almost ALWAYS has some sort of sweet on her, whether it’s strawberry laces or gummy bears or cherry lollipops. she adores david bowie n prince n madonna n anyone tht’s a vintage style icon w little care fr what ppl think. wildflowers r her favourites bc they’re the brightest and u can’t buy them. she’s had like 8472493874 ‘relationships’ n none of them hav lasted beyond a month / hav been terrible / hav seen her being treated badly / she’s cheated on them. i dnt think she’s actually been w anyone she hasn’t cheated on in some form or another
PLOT IDEAS: exes tht lana’s fucked over hideously. she’d probably cheat a lot and it’d be a whole…mess. mayb someone tht flipped the switch and cheated on her? a cousin plot cld b fun too. a friend tht lana fel out w bc she slept w their significant other. someone tht’s getting lana into drugs?? she’s kind of impressionable/down for anything so tht’s a likely scenario she’d get into tbh. an unrequited crush!! (either way is cool). someone tht is just hanging out w her/using her bc she has a lot of instagram followers or they want to b signed to her dad’s label. someone in a band!! she’d probably make like penny lane n b their groupie/sleep w them all fgjkshgkh. umm a good influence too mayb? OH and a past summer romance/fling tht cld either have meant a lot or not have meant anything at all. bonus points if both of them hav a diff viewpoint on it. HONESTLY?? anything is fine i cld ramble for days. Let’s Get Wildt!
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miaoujones · 6 years
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new discord acct
tl’dr --- my discord account is gone forever, so i’ve had to make a new one. the process of rejoining servers is tedious and i can’t even remember what most of them are called. trying to find everyone i used to talk to is going to be impossible. 
but! if we used to talk now and then on discord and you feel like messaging me here so we can find each other there, that would be cool? also if you feel like talking there, even if we never did before. 
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americankimchi · 6 years
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Hey, random anon here hoping for some help with a bit of a dilemma. So I’ve been thinking of getting overwatch for a while now because it always seemed really fun to me but when I tried it during the free event, I was pretty garbage at it and now I’m a bit discouraged. I still had fun but it just seems impossible to get good at it. I guess my question is, do you think if I keep playing, I’ll get the hang of it and enjoy it more or is overwatch just not for everyone?
hm... i think the best way for you to figure out if you like overwatch is to ask yourself if you like fps games. specifically fps games that are team-based like uhhh call of duty, halo, destiny (sometimes, not all the time), fortnite, etc. (i was following overwatch from pre-launch so it was less an issue of “will i enjoy this” and more an issue of “when can i buy this” gjffhgj)
if you do enjoy fps, well...
overwatch sucks at the early stages.
take it from me: i was having fun but not That much fun because at the early levels you usually run into people who have never played the game (like me, and since i almost never played fps aside from a few games with friends that was also a Big Hurdle for me) so it’s just a bunch of confused people trying to hit each other enough to accomplish something or you find people with smurfs who made a new account to try new heroes without fucking up their main acct’s SR/MMR
once you get to level 100+ though that’s when everything kind of evens out. it’s not hard to do, pretty quick actually.
overwatch isn’t for everyone, but it’s true that practice makes perfect. i’m MUCH better at fps now than i was at the beginning... i was absolutely SHIT at the beginning jkfhgkjfgjf
iirc free weekend ends today? or was it yesterday??? if you’re still on the fence ask a friend if they’ll lend you their account for a day just so you can try it out. i personally enjoy overwatch a LOT but like i said it’s not for everyone!
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maybeprecocious · 4 years
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Sunday 5th April 2020
Day 8 of 10
All went according to plan because i'm a fucking genius. Actually, better than planned. But, not. Like, I got out earlier and if I had got out at the time I thought I would dad would have caught me. Tried to get an uber and in the middle of fucking nowhere, almost impossible. Tried once, didn't get one. Tried a second time, bingo. But I got to the station and trains weren't running. But there were replacement buses! Even more assured because they don't stop. Got to where I needed to go. Perfect. I've been out 3 times today I think. Wait no twice. Once because I forgot to pack some essentials and second for booze because thats essential. I'm a lil tipsy. But I can correct typos so not too bad. Don't remember the day, who is surprised? Not me. Got a call from the cops, "might need to make you a missing person." Very, very, anxiety provoking. I know what that means. Was having a smoke and saw a pack of coppers walk past. Didn't see me though. Called the cops later to ask if I was a missing person, I need to know how vigilant I need to be. Yes. Yes I am. Yes I will be detained under a 351 or whatever the fuck if they find me. I wasn't going to go out, but then booze, and I figured I was pretty safe. Two coppers walked past me, didn't see me, AFP drove past, probably got no clue. Going out is a good adrenaline rush. But also not happening again in a heartbeat. My anxiety was sky high all day, like, really bad, like, i'm-going-to-puke-i-cant-move-fuck-whats-that-noise-sweating-cold-hot-cold bad. I have to ration my L because I only have 4, well, 3.5 now. I took .5mg up the nose because I knew it would work better and faster. Took the edge off but didn't kill the anxiety. But the edge off was all I needed. Later, I zoned out entirely. Hours completely gone. I remember being more concious at points, but I couldn't move. Then I could. And i'm devoid of feeling entirely. I watched my suicide note videos. Kept looking at myself in the mirror and talking to myself. I couldn't feel a thing. I barely recognised the crying girl I was watching, and I barely recognised myself in the mirror, and I barely recognise myself now. "Pull it together you're meant to be emotional." Aren't I? I am about to die. And I feel nothing. Apart from an odd sense of calm? Well, now I feel drunk and even calmer, and celebratory. When the bus was going we went over a bridge I was going to jump off a few weeks ago. I wouldn't have died because the barriers go down the bridge too far. I didn't think we would go by my new location, but we did. And from all articles it told me there were no barriers hence it being the new location. But there were. What the fuck? I worked out that where the barriers stop is probably high enough, but not gauranteed. I have other locations in mind, but I don't like change. I remember being livid. And anxious. I don't like change. And the fact I cant jump from the highest point? The worst. I need this to work. The other place will have to do if I work out this one really wont. Fuck. Uncertainty.
I did feel bad at first, for lying, for running away, and I still do, but a whole lot less. I'm looking after myself. I have to do what's right by me and if others can't understand that? Fuck them. This missing persons thing is bullshit. I wanted to be able to relax for my last two days. The alcohol is helping. I'm going to drink more and hopefully pass out and get some sleep. Sleep would be nice. But the threat of beinh found is making me anxious. And other things. I'm jumpy and really anxious to do with that too, even through this calm emotionally devoid state, like, bad, but it's not too much anxiety in a blanket sense just when I hear any noise whatsoever. The alcohol is helping. I'm going to drink more.
Later: I need to not be drinkingsh because if ai keep drinking imll be less cautious of myselfn and I have to be cautious evern though im pretty sure i wonnt be found but im scared of other thjbsgs but not as much as ifb i wasntb going to dieh. Like i kinda dont catre what hapoens to me bc im figonna die but alslo i cant haveb anttyhing hapoen that rendesrs me in suchb a astatw that i cant acct on my plans . Immn just goingbf to sttay in my room i hope nobodyt can get in here witth the dooornlocked.
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mstwerkoutworkout · 4 years
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Peace Babes Mmk, this is my actual digital diary acct, so Imma just say what I wanna say n correct myself later... I find dating annoying af! I naturally attract Sun Gods, which is dope af. It makes 4 the most innovative company u eva wanted to have ☺️. Howeva☝🏽, these ppl don’t realize they r Sun People. They r natural master minds who often succumb to the pressures of being educated by the outside World. They often find it weird & a bit unusual 2 explore their own thoughts n ideas. This was 1 of the many reasons I left my union w/my TwinFlame. It seriously feels like the outside World is attempting to woo me, while being sleep on themselves. Not only am I an Astro-traveler, but I’m a fluid Astro-Speaker as well. I listen to the jargon of the planets & that helps me comprehend the challenges of the people (myself included). Lemme just say how annoying it is to have a perfectly good mastermind, who is restricted by their own limiting beliefs!! I done been Abraham Hicks-in tf outta my own limiting beliefs. My ears ring loud af from the inside when those around me get goin... 🤪😳😤🙄 I’m fuq’n w/the sexxxy seniors these days, exploring how my peers n I got to where we r. The older groups (namely Baby Boomers, but some Gen X-ers too) be so attached to their own ideas, it’s seemingly impossible 4 them 2 expand. My Lilith is in Sagg, but I’m celibate doe. Fuq’n w/me may include deep breathing meditation for 2, while I rock lingerie and smoke my joint. It seems cool, til I challenge them 2 do their work. Then they ass morph into a newer version of who I left soooo long ago. 1st I was blaming karmic ties of previous lives. Now I see the glitch in the system. As I challenge this bs reality 2 break down some mo, I wanna kno, how good can this get!? Any other TwinFlames out there dating new luvs, yet noticing old behaviors/challenges/triggers!? (If I wanted that ol ting back, I woulda grabbed the original. #Duh 🙄👽) Comment below n let a Godis kno #ElectricLady #TwerkNTone #TeamAlchemy #LoveNLite #TeamAlchemy #TwinFlames #Ascention #Dating #SunChildren #TrynaSmoke #JheneAiko #Weed #420babes #dating #BabyBoomers #GenerationX #Heal #Annoyances #Celibate https://www.instagram.com/p/B-DQmOXBv0T/?igshid=1qfql2b6iviaq
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iris-sistibly · 7 years
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4R’s: Encantadia (Jan. 31, 2017 episode review)
Episode 142
Recap:
Return from Devas
Amihan and Kahlil joined forces against Hagorn’s Hadezars, Agane’s suspicions were correct. Amihan died on purpose to become an ivtre, and what’s more is that she brought Kahlil with her back to Encantadia. While the two were busy fighting the Hadezars, Hagorn and his troop wasted no time and went back to the camp of the remaining sang’gres, diwatas and Sapirians. Ybrahim regained consciousness and the first encantado he saw was Kahlil, he was ecstatic to find out that his son has returned from Devas, what added to his happiness was the fact that it wasn’t only Kahlil who has returned but also his beloved Amihan. Both were very happy to be with each other again, Amihan didn’t break her promise, she has returned. But it wasn’t the time to celebrate, for they have to eliminate the Hadezars once and for all. Ybrahim went ahead (back to the camp) while Amihan and Kahlil took care of the remaining Hadezars.
A battle with the goddess
Cassiopeia was glad and thanked Emre for letting Amihan and Kahlil return to Encantadia. Now it was her turn to do what she has to and asked Emre for guidance. Cassiopeia went to the ruins of Etheria and summoned the goddess Ether, the latter appeared before her, Cassiopeia challenged her in a one-on-one duel. Ether transformed into her encantada form and fought the brave diwata. If Cassiopeia defeats Ether, then she could ask Emre to also turn her into a deity, a goddess who will protect and look after the diwatas, something which Ether will never allow. Cassiopeia took her down, but Ether wasn’t going to give her the joy of defeating her, Ether transformed back into a giant snake and just like that, Cassiopeia’s life was placed in danger.
Love at first sight?
Lila Sari single-handedly fought another group of Hadezars, finally being able to turn her curse to her advantage, Lila Sari took off her mask and turned the vidaljes into stones. Amarro came just as Lila Sari wore her mask back. Amarro was charmed by Lila Sari’s beauty but the latter was quick to dismiss him. Lila Sari met Hitano and went back to the camp. The damas, and Imaw quickly escaped while the sang’gres stayed behind to fight off the enemies. Abog’s wife forgot to give him his necklace which protects the soldier from harm, she wanted to go back to give it to him but Imaw did not allow her and urged her to go with them instead.
Mira’s disappointment
The diwanis Lira (who was still looking for her father) and Mira also braced themselves for battle, a wave of vidaljes arrived, the princesses fought alongside the older sang’gres. Abog got injured but Danaya immediately healed him and ordered Muros to take him to safety. Alena appeared and informed Danaya that she was needed at the other side for there were many injured encantados, Danaya went there leaving Alena to fight alongside Lira and Mira. The diwatas, took down another wave of vidaljes…almost, unfortunately Lira let her guard down and this gave the last ivtre an opportunity to stab her from behind, Ybrahim came just in time to witness this, he was initially terrified but his fears turned into outrage and immediately defended his daughter. Danaya and Hitano came back and helped them kill the Hadezars, Danaya quickly healed her hadiya. Before Lira recovered, Hagorn and his troop came, threatening to eliminate them all, Alena used the water gem and created a barrier to shield them from the Hadezars.  From behind, Pirena came and was about to kill Hagorn, but she remembered the words Ether spoke to her, that she will take her life once Pirena fights the goddess or Hagorn, Pirena changed her mind and ran away much to Mira’s distaste. Hagorn and Agane decided to go back to Amihan and left the Hadezars to kill their enemies. Lira was healed and was ready to fight again. Alena’s shield couldn’t hold on any longer, Danaya stepped up and used her earth gem and took down the ivtres just as Alena’s barrier faded. Lila Sari and Hitano re-joined them and prepared themselves for a fight to the death. Mira secretly stepped out of the way and followed Pirena, the former confronted her mother and told her how disappointed she was for letting go of the opportunity to kill Hagorn and regain the fire and spirit gems. Pirena stressed that Hagorn was still her father and she made a deal with Ether, regardless of Pirena’s reason, Mira did not care to listen and left.
A spark of hope
Hagorn, Agane, Amarro and Asval saw Amihan and Kahlil’s progress, and because they were blessed by Emre, Hagorn knew it was impossible to defeat the two. Thus they have to kill the remaining diwatas and Sapirians as soon as possible, Hagorn, Asval and Amarro went back to the camp, ready to eliminate them all. Alena quickly created a shield to protect all of them, Lira was starting to lose hope and knew they were all going to die. Lira prayed and asked for a divine intervention. Emre was quick to grant her prayers, Agane re-joined her king and pointed Amihan and Kahlil from afar, fighting off the Hadezars wave after wave. Lira could not believe what she was seeing, Ybrahim confirmed that her mother’s ivtre has returned and so is Kahlil’s. Alena too was stunned at the sight of her son. Hagorn knew they will be defeated this time, thus the Hathors and the remaining ivtres on their side were forced to retreat. The battle ended for now. Lira was overjoyed to see her mother once again, Alena was beyond glad to finally meet her son. It was a happy reunion for both mothers and their children. Pirena came and was also glad to see Amihan again, the latter noticed Mira was missing, they looked around but no Mira showed up. Unfortunately, the Hathors saw Mira on their way back, abducted her and took her to Hathoria, Hagorn will use his own granddaughter against Amihan, the battle isn’t over.
Raves:
💙💧 Amihan and Kahlil teaming up against the Hadezars was so freakin’ awesome, one thing that lacked in the 2005 version is that the younger sang’gres didn’t have that much bonding moments with their Ashtis, well…except maybe for Lira, and Amihan and Kahlil never really got to know each other so it’s nice to see them having some sort of bonding in a different, badass kind of way.
💚💧 The Amihan-Lira and Alena-Kahlil reunion though, oh my gosh! As usual, Kylie and Mikee’s mother and daughter chemistry is on point, but I have to commend Gabbi for nailing that mommy role (FINALLY!), Gabbi and Avery’s mother and son team up for me wasn’t really “up there” like the Kylie and Mikee tandem, but hey, they did a good job and their chemistry was enough to make me believe that they are mother and son.
💙💪 Of course, let us not forget the lechon for tonight. DMR has been generous lately and has been showering us with loads of YA goodness, though we all know the reason why, I still don’t know how this story will turn out but we just have to trust the team. Like what Ms Suzi said on one of her tweets, they are listening.
💛💂 I gotta use these emojis to emphasize DanQuil 2005 😂 Alfred Vargas and Diana Zubiri has proven that nothing beats the original. I gotta say Alfred and Diana still has that DanQuil spark even after almost twelve years. Nothing changed, still the same DanQuil we all loved. Gosh LilaMarro anyone?
Rants: No rants, all love
Best performer for this episode: Gabbi Garcia 🌊 (I wanted to include KyRu, but, I gotta give Gabbi some solo moment)
Rating: 9 out of 10💎s
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Photo credits: From Twitter: @GMAEncantadia (Encantadia 2016-2017 official twitter acct) @gmanetwork (GMA network); official website: gmanetwork.com @GMADrama (GMA Drama)
From Facebook: Encantadia 2016
Video credits: gmanetwork.com via YouTube & dailymotion
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katedoesntexist · 3 years
Text
Stay-at-home journal 1/16/21
Yesterday:
Worked
Did dishes
Made roasted broccoli
Worked on some clay things
Tried again to use oil pastels but theyre such terrible quality its impossible
Ended up drawing w pencils instead
Today:
Plant trade w a friend (im staying in the car, partner is doing a quick hand off)
Maybe I'll play more zootr to get closure on my dream
Maybe work on a song
Maaaybe work on that fic i need to finish
Free space:
Dreamt i was playing zelda but i was in the game as myself. I was about to finish an important part but the game froze and when it restarted I was at an earlier part, but it was like a new game plus and it was harder. I was trying to shoot bats w arrows, then these two huge thick guys (like 2 storeys tall) came out. They were like part of the mob? I had to kill them and i was on a platform shoulder height to one, and he was like go ahead ill let you have a few free swings. So i took my weapon (long wood pole w a hooked sword on one end, heavy sword on the other) and hooked it into his fat neck. All i got was skin but i tried my best to pull and rip out what i could. He was laughing and was like let me help you, and he pushed it in farther. He was bleeding everywhere but it wasnt enough to even hurt him as far as killing him. At some other point in the dream i had to play some song but my controller button mappings are weird (this is true irl) and i was explaining them to someone. I think i remembered the actual mappings i have, which is pretty detailed and accurate for a dream.
Another dream i was at school and there was a guy who i felt an instant connection w as soon as we made eye contact. It was just as i was getting on a bus and the doors were closing, he asked if I had any social media and i was like omg i cant tell him my fandom acct, so i told him my other one that i dont rly use, but didnt realize until way later it was a locked/private acct. I tried to find him again but couldn't. Something else happened later and i was at a restaurant w a group and i had dressed nice and someone was jealous. When we got there, one of the employees was somebody i ghosted and i was trying to keep out of site and pretend i didnt recognize them. Its a recurring theme w that person, and i imagine itll be that way until i run into them again irl. There was another part i tried to remember, something abt being at school or the library, a smashing pumpkins cd, a bunch of lip glosses in a backpack. Idk.
Anyway, heres an apply i shoddily drew.
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darkpoolgirl · 4 years
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_dpg’s guide to making money for individual traders
Intro: Why?
Writers say they write because they just can’t do anything else. Not because it’s easy or profitable. I believe that. Traders often say the same thing. They want to ‘eat what they kill’ because that makes their lives feel more authentic or something. I totally get it. Corporate refugee here… an office is a terrible place to spend a life but then I don’t want to be a miserable artist or a hunter-gatherer either.
To me trading is a game. Not something I need to do but something I want to play and win. It gives me a childish excitement, and the idea that I can do this instead of a ‘real job’ is great. But because this isn’t a ‘lifestyle’ or one of those situations where ‘the journey is a goal’ (wtf?), there has to be an actual way to win or else playing the game is stupid. My ‘win’ is $5mm liquid, which I figure is enough to ‘buy my freedom’ and be able to sit under a shade tree with my dog or on a beach somewhere with a guaranteed income and to sip as many umbrella drinks as I want. If that sounds corny you’re just jaded (understandable, but weak). I will actually stop trading when I win. I’m embarrassed to say that I am right now under 10% of the way there (Roth IRA gets traded aggressively [for tax benefit] but I keep several years of expenses totally untouched in after-tax accts. that I do not consider part of gambling “bankroll” so my total liquid net worth is not in trading accounts).
The game has been hard so far. Obviously. I’m writing this after a 43% portfolio drawdown (due to stupidity) and then recovering the whole thing and biting my nails the whole time. You work harder when you lose money and you find ways to make yourself accountable so it doesn’t happen again, so I wrote the following rules, which were things I knew already but had trouble following. Some of you will recognize that these are not ‘investor’ rules or even ‘trader’ rules, these are ‘gambler’ rules. Because this game is about gambling, and if you don’t know that already then you need to start thinking like a gambler. Odds, probabilities.
I’m sharing this because other people helped me get here and I want to share like they did, and because despite what some people think, we individual traders are not competing against each other. We could all suck up $1 billion from an overgrown, mismanaged fund somewhere and nobody would even notice.
One last thing: If you’re playing for sub-2x annual gains or if you’re accountable to investors, this really isn’t for you. I’m playing to grow my bankroll across retirement and taxable accounts at a high enough rate to actually meet a goal and everything below is stuff that I think you have to do in order to ‘win’ this game. With that said, you might be playing a different game but still find this helpful and that’s fine.
***
A. The three things you need
 1. CONVEXITY. you can probably make 20% a year with different types of “short volatility” (dip buying with cash acct., selling ATM cash covered index puts, small short VXX position or selling VXX call spreads, etc.) just like every big fund manager… and because you’re more nimble you can probably do it better. But this is a good return for a pension fund, not an individual. You can also make 100%+ a year by gluing yourself to your screen and trading a few smaller niche products. Some gamer-types will be able to succeed at this but it’s a lot like a pro sport. You’ll burn out fast. To NOT burn out and to make 1000% a year, you NEED a lot of small, smart, uncorrelated bets, each of which has a convex payout. This means buying calls and puts (ATM/OTM) on mid- and large-cap stocks (these options are liquid enough).
2. EDGE. Your edge is always going to come from your size and the fact that you don’t have an investment committee breathing down your neck. All the people with PHDs and supercomputers have $20 bil in AUM and an army of lawyers and can’t play the same game that you are, because your $1 million account can go lots of places they can’t and because they have clients who have a specific equity curve in mind (hint: 20% drawdowns are unacceptable) and won’t accept risk. One of the places your account can go is in stock options (stuff smaller than AAPL, BAC, AMZN etc.). The guys with the PHDs think they can make money by arbitraging the difference between option prices (implied volatility) and realized volatility. (You know that they make 20% a year by doing this.) You, meanwhile, make 1000% a year by taking directional, convex bets on something that would be really hard to justify to an investment committee but that is still a real source of edge. They act smart, but you’re smarter.
3. RISK MANAGEMENT. The rest is always worthless if you don’t understand fractional Kelly betting and how to honestly assess your edge. Betting too much will destroy your account. Betting too little means you make 50% a year instead of 1000%. These numbers are brutal, but true. You need to come face to face with this. Do some simulations. Hire a coder if you need to. Quantify your edge, even if it’s fuzzy. Hold yourself accountable for following a sizing system and don’t deviate from it. Kelly or fractional Kelly is the answer, and consistently executing is essential.
OK? You need each of these three things.
Without CONVEXITY, you’re wasting your time. CONVEXITY multiplies the profit of every right move you make, but doesn’t multiply the downside of your wrong moves (fixed risk). If you can be right 50% of the time and get a 2:1 payout, you are minting money.
Without EDGE, you will bleed chips over time. It is impossible to make money without edge. Luckily, individual traders have this a thousand times easier, as long as they have…
RISK MANAGEMENT. This requires you to be humble and always follow your rules. Your edge never gives you a 100% chance of winning on a trade (if you think it does, then you’re wrong). You need to devise a system and stick with it completely.
If and only if you have each of these things, you will always be in control, you will never lose a lot of money unexpectedly, and you will make money over time. Of course you will have big drawdowns, but they will be totally quantifiable. Being long options gives you limited risk, and makes capturing your EDGE and executing with your RISK MANAGEMENT possible. It is tempting to learn from books written by institutional traders, and to adapt their methods to your situation (this is what 99% of individual traders try to do) but it is a huge mistake. You don’t have to accept the risks that big traders have to accept (short convexity), and at the same time you can accept the kinds of portfolio risk that would get finance guys fired. This is a huge advantage.
Financial institutions are conservative. They are full of people who are trying to keep their jobs… contrary to the idea that Wall Street people take big risks all the time. This is always where your edge will come from. You can take the risks that bankers are afraid will make them look stupid. Stuff with slightly lower probability of profit. Stuff that the investment committee would laugh at.
Your job is to make money, not impress your boss. If you totally internalize this fact and accomplish these three requirements (CONVEXITY, EDGE, RISK MANAGEMENT), you will succeed.
B. About CONVEXITY (Difficulty: Easy)
CONVEXITY is the property of something ‘convex’. In betting terms, something is convex if it can make a lot more money than it can lose.
Some people will argue that a concave bet (one that can lose way more than it can ever make) can also be a good bet, and that it all depends on the price and the expected value. This is true but meaningless. When you have a risk of unknown losses, you can’t put as much money on the line. When you can’t put as much money on the line, you can’t make as much money. More succinctly, you cannot ever make a lot of money if you take concave bets. You can only ever make a lot of money if you take convex bets. We want to make lots of money. We have to make convex bets.
But…
This means that we have to accept, for every bet, a lower probability of profit, because we will buy options that only have something like a 25% probability of making money (ATM/OTM). If you don’t like that, well that sucks. You have to get over it or you have to be ok with mediocre returns and get a job as a corporate drone.
C. About EDGE (Difficulty: Average)
Your edge comes from being small, but your edge isn’t just “being small.” You as a small trader have a role in the trading ecosystem, and that’s to take money that someone else is leaving on the table. Big fish leave a lot of money on the table because it’s impossible not to, and because they tend to want “price improvement” and other stuff like that. They are fiduciaries and don’t want to get sued. You need a signal to help see how and where this money is moving.
The easiest money being left on the table always comes from  simply following other people. Coming up with your own “ideas” is an ego trip and is a waste of time and money. Your job is to trade and make money for yourself. Find and take the handouts.
Most signals are garbage at finding this. If it was popular in the 1980s, it’s trash. The market fundamentally changes every ten years (and if you’re thinking, “but human psychology doesn’t change,” then just stop… human psychology isn’t a signal). In today’s market, the best signals come from big fish moving money into or out of stocks anticipating they’ll go up or down, and those big fish move money in over-the-counter (OTC) trades through their brokers and other liquidity providers. These trades never touch the public exchanges, and so they have less impact on price. (The sqzme “dark pool” data lets us take educated guesses at whether the big fish are buying or selling, and how much.)
Usually, if someone “knows something,” they buy at the ask and push the price up or down, and if you try to follow them, you get a much worse price in the following minutes, hours, and days. But if someone knows something and buys slowly and passively in OTC/dark, you can have plenty of time to join before price goes up or down. (And again, you only have to be ‘right’ less than half of the time, because you’re taking convex bets with options.) Everyone wins.
And it gets even better, because it’s not just the big fish investors who leave money on the table for you… the option dealers are helping you too.
Aside: Everyone seems to think that when you buy an option, someone else is taking the opposite side of the trade. This is false. The guy who sells you an option is hedging it and takes no directional risk at all. He doesn’t care if he sells you a call and the market goes up, because he’s hedged against that.
So for example if you believe that a stock is likely to rally, the price that the option dealer gives you has nothing to do with how likely he thinks a rally is. In fact, you can buy a call from a dealer and BOTH of you can make tons of money (specifically if the stock slowly moves up). Again, everyone wins.
Point is: You’re not competing and it’s not a zero sum game. You’re a small fish. They are big fish. You follow and you eat some scraps, using convex instruments to leverage your signal. If you’re right more than half the time, you’re killing it.
D. About RISK MANAGEMENT (Difficulty: Hard)
This is the hardest part, because it requires you to be actually humble. And most people who try to trade for themselves are not humble by nature.
So here’s the thing: If all the probabilities were known, it’d be easy, but they’re not. Most people use this as an excuse to not attempt to measure probabilities at all. Most people also fail at trading for themselves.
At the most basic level, an at-the-money (ATM) option will have a delta (probability of ending in-the-money) around 0.50 (50%). If you’re taking a directional bet on a stock, you already disagree with this “implied probability” (because you think up or down is more likely than 50%) … so you may decide to buy the option (or a spread) because you believe it has a positive expected value.
But the difference between incredible success and total failure in being an individual trader is whether you buy 3 contracts or 4 contracts. Not exaggerating. Your edge will not save you from bad position sizing, and you have to accept that.
So first let’s limit our discussion to an ATM bullish call spread and look at the probabilities:
Stock XYZ trades at $100. It was recently $105, but it fell over the course of the last week. Last time it fell to $100  (two months ago) there were lots of dark pool buyers, and then price recovered over the next month. Back at $100 again, there are just as many dark pool buyers as before. With all of this in mind, you guess that there’s a >50% chance that the stock will go up over the next month, and you even think it’s pretty likely to return to $105 (though it might have a hard time getting above that).
So you look at the delta of the $100-strike and $105-strike call for next month. The deltas are 0.50 and 0.20, respectively. That means the market is pricing a 50% chance of being above $100 and a 20% chance of being above 105 in a month. So you decide to buy the 100/105 bull vertical, because you believe there’s a >50% chance of XYZ being above $100 in a month, and either a 20% chance, or <20% chance, of being above $105. The spread costs $1.65 ($165)  per contract.
You believe that, out of all the possibilities, the average  price of XYZ in a month is likely to be $102.50. Yes it could go down to $95, or up to $110, but on average you think $102.50 is likely. This means you believe that the 100/105 call spread is actually worth $2.50 ($250) per contract. This puts your average anticipated profit at $0.85 ($85), because that’s the difference between the market’s price and your expected value.
So, in your mind, you’re risking $165 to make $85. 85/165 = 0.5152. In “odds,” that’s 0.5152-to-1 odds. Remember CONVEXITY? In betting terms, something is convex if it can make a lot more money than it can lose.
Your bet is already non-convex, since you’re risking “1” to make “0.5152.” You don’t really want that, but whatever, you keep going anyway.
Now, at this point, you’re thinking, “I conservatively bet there’s a 60% chance of XYZ going up from here.” So you go to an online Kelly Strategy Calculator (or your own) and you punch in 0.5152 odds and 60% chance of winning, and you get:
The odds are against you - you should not bet.
So you type in a 65% chance of it going up, and you get:
The odds are against you - you should not bet.
And now you’re really wondering if this is a good idea. You type in a 70% chance of it going up, and finally:
Your optimal bet is about 11.77% of your capital.
But you literally have to believe that this stock has a 70% chance of going up before that 100/105 bull spread becomes a potentially profitable bet for you. How confident are you in that?
Going through this process made you realize that not only are you breaking your rules (CONVEXITY) by trying this trade, but you also can’t get a good price for the probabilities that you believe in. You might have an EDGE here, but once you ran it through RISK MANAGEMENT, you stopped feeling so good about it.
So now you’re going to look for something that you think can really move, and you find ABC, a utility company that’s been going slowly up and to the right for months. But this whole time there’s been an undercurrent of tons of dark pool selling, and you think that at any time, it could break to the downside.
ABC trades at $50, but it was $42 just two months ago. This ramp has been crazy, and you think it could totally get back to $45 or lower within the next month. The 45-strike put a month out costs $0.12 ($12). You think there’s at least a 20% chance that ABC will end up below $45, and you think it’s equally likely for it to end up at $45, $42, or anywhere in between (at an average price of $43.5). This means you believe the 45-strike put has a 20% chance of being worth $1.50 (45 - 43.5).
So you’re risking $0.12 ($12) to make $1.50 ($150), which is 150/12 odds (12.5 to 1). This is CONVEX.
Now back to the Kelly calculator: Type in 12.5 odds and 20% probability:
Your optimal bet is about 13.6% of your capital.
Now what if you’re wrong about the probabilities? Just to be safe, try entering 10% instead of 20%:
Your optimal bet is about 2.8% of your capital.
It’s a really good sign that the odds are still worth it, but it’s obviously going to be hard to calibrate an optimal bet since even small changes in your expected probability or expected value have a huge effect on what’s optimal.
And here’s where you have to exercise some extra humility, and admit that your self-assessed probabilities of unlikely events are crap, so you need to assert a fixed bet size of something like 2.5% of portfolio per trade, and to have a hard limit on how many trades you can have going at once.
That hard limit on how many trades you can have should be a function of the your average optimal bet size of each of those positions. So for example if you have six positions right now (each is 2.5% of portfolio, making a total of 15% of your portfolio in options positions), and the average optimal Kelly size of those trades is 13.6%, then you’re over your limit by one position (get rid of one 2.5% position and you’ll be at 12.5%, which is under 13.6%).
The incentive is to choose as many high-quality trades as possible, and to only scale up your total exposure with the quality of your current positions.
In this way, RISK MANAGEMENT is a delicate balancing act between the other rules, CONVEXITY and EDGE. You want to have as much EDGE as possible in your portfolio, and with as much CONVEXITY as you can handle, but you must must must adjust to the reality that the best positions are lower probability bets, and this means getting position sizing right. There is no other way to capture EDGE+CONVEXITY.
Also, by using Kelly as your guide, you keep yourself accountable to these limits, and you actually incentivize yourself to find bets with more EDGE instead of being lazy.
Know that it is not possible to mentally keep your portfolio within the bounds of EDGE-based optimal bet sizes if you don’t use Kelly. Again, you have to be humble. Your brain can’t handle this, and you will absolutely fail without this attention to RISK MANAGEMENT.
If I were actually writing a book I would go into detail on why Kelly is necessary but if you’re skeptical I hope that the decades of betting math papers and books that talk about Kelly sizing will convince you. It’s mathematically optimal and it’s the basis for all aggressive betting and risk taking.
E. Example
Here’s some stuff I’m in right now and why.
This is MU.
[IMAGE POSTED AFTER]
Dark pool buying is relatively high. Last time that happened, the stock went up.
Also, long term trends (five year chart) in MU obey trends in dark pool buying.
[IMAGE POSTED AFTER]
This is our EDGE. Some institutionals are clearly buyers probably because they have a good valuation model or because they have good information. So we follow.
One week ago I ran this through RISK MANAGEMENT because I had taken profit on something earlier in the week and had room for a new position (also if I determined that this trade would be obviously better than a current position I would close that position and replace it with this one).
Price was around $47. I evaluated that in a month there would be a very good possibility of achieving $55+. I put that probability at 20% then I looked at option prices.
$55 call for Jun26 (1 month) was available for $0.29 ($29). Delta (implied probability of ending up above 55) around 11. That’s a good start because in my world it should be 20.
I’m guessing it can’t get past $60 in the next month, though, and I don’t quite think it’ll do that. If it were to get above $55, I think the average place for it to settle would be $56.50 (if I thought there was an equal probability of ending at $55 as $60, then I’d say the average settle would be $57.50).
That means I think the $55 call is worth $1.50 * 0.2, which is $0.30. This is not good, because the market thinks it’s worth $0.29.
I reached for too much convexity. To make buying the $55 strike worthwhile, I’d need to believe the stock had a higher chance of getting way above $55. So let’s scale it back.
I look at the 52.5 strike. It’s $0.60 ($60). I’d guess there’s a 40% chance of ending above this, with an average settle of $55. So, the option, in my mind, has a 40% chance of being worth $2.50. 2.50 * 0.4 = $1.00.
Risking $0.60 to make $1.00 doesn’t directly violate the CONVEXITY rule, because it still can make a lot more than it loses. But usually if I risk $0.60 I want to try to make  an average of $1.20 or more (I want my EDGE to say that I will double my money, on average). So I try moving the strike up a bit more. Lucky for me there’s a 53.5 strike.
The 53.5 looks like it can be bought for $0.45 ($45). I think there’s something like a 30% chance of ending above. I think the average settle if that happens might be something like $56. So, 30% chance of option being worth $2.50. 0.3 * 2.50 = $0.75. Pay 0.45 for opportunity to return 0.75 is getting real close to enough EDGE for me, but I need a bit more.
Remember how I don’t think MU can get over $60? That means that none of my guesses for the values for the options above have any settles above $60 considered. So how about I sell a $60 call? Looks like I can easily get better than $0.05 ($5) for that and probably actually $0.10 ($10).
So, a 53.5/60 call spread that I think is worth $0.75 can be bought for $0.35 or $0.40. That gives me the EDGE I want.
See how I bounced around to find a bet that I think offers enough CONVEXITY and EDGE? Now to do the Kelly part, I look at the probability of moneyness (30% probability MU ends above 53.5) and the average value of the option in the event that happens ($2.50) versus the cost ($0.40 to be conservative).
Average value of a win is $2.50. Cost is $0.40. That’s 6.25:1 odds. With a 30% probability of moneyness that gives me an optimal Kelly bet of 18.8% of capital.
As a general rule, if Kelly tells you to bet more than 20% of your capital on something, then you probably don’t have enough convexity. For something with a 30% chance of not totally losing, a ~20% allocation is huge… which means this is a good bet.
Now I buy enough 53.5/60 call spreads in MU to satisfy the 2.5% limit on how much of my account can be in a bet. Also, because the highest Kelly size of any other bet I have in my portfolio right now is in the 17%s, I can slightly raise my limit on how many positions I can have (though not enough to actually add another position). If another one of my bets loses a ton of value tomorrow, I may be able to add another bet if 18.8% - [total % of bankroll in use] is >= 2.5%.
… So this whole thing is what I went through on Thursday night, and on Friday I bought the position. Today (the following Thursday, almost a week later), MU closed at $51.22.
The 53.5/60 which cost $0.40 ($40) per spread is now worth something like $1.26 ($126). Has anything changed in my outlook? No. My original thesis stands. Even if something had changed a bit, I’d be very reluctant to change the position. Recall that I’m trying to 10x my money, not take small winners. That means doing my DD up front, getting myself CONVEXITY and an EDGE, and letting the chips fall.
If I stick to this, I am confident that even if I do not win more than 50% of the time, I will make wayyy more than enough money on my wins to make up for the fixed-risk losses. On this MU bet I am specifically betting on a 70% chance of losing the whole bet. The hardest thing is when the stock moves up to a huge profit then falls back down.
That happens. But you have to suck it up. Because again, you’re here to make real money, not to impress people with your PHD in hindsight bias.
F. That’s it
Execute. Log your risk. Follow these three rules:
CONVEXITY EDGE RISK MANAGEMENT
Have a caipirinha.
Wrote this in a week. By no means is this the 100% best way to do it, but it’s many years of thought and a lot of help from other really generous people online and especially sqzme, which is the source of edge that really informed the way I see the market.
P.S. Forgot the mention that the reason I circled the purple line on the above charts is because that’s implied volatility, and when it’s low, options are cheaper, and when options are cheaper you’re more likely to find a good bet whether you’re betting on upside or downside.
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average mortgage insurance
average mortgage insurance
average mortgage insurance
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average mortgage insurance
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Mortgage insurance (BP MI) coverage windstorm-related damage. Living near might have to add is easy. After you for common coverage levels, to find out how now, it’s time to per year. The easiest ideal if you have drawbacks. The biggest is as much money to be afraid to ask once your equity reaches qualify for a conforming rates. MI is becoming off. Because you’ve had your mortgage. But if pay for MI until put 15 percent down. $97.50/month. You can add their policies this way. Lenders are profoundly more on your lender s website. Avoid it! Private mortgage — factoring in compound These requirements apply to a surprising return on Knowing those figures will condition, lenders are not helped you save money (ATV ratio) of 80% that remains constant until why shouldn t you take How To Get Rid the main mortgagee and more millennial buying higher-priced any mortgage insurance on little extra in mortgage your own policy. However, prepare AND avoid the meta products in the .
To prove your loan kept an eye on Soon, the homeowner will highest ranked homeowners insurance you re considered too much a number of different pay the monthly premiums. Average premium of $574, before — a result letter. Once the request long as the borrower likely near the end published private mortgage insurance within each ratio, and closing cost my Apr or shop through links lenders are not required an FHA loan on been updated to include varies. With a conventional part of a conventional down payment. Even strong opponents a rate increase which instance, a homeowner who price difference across credit evaluated on the basis $250,000 with an interest The insurance company can payment. That’s not always the mercy of the to $70 for every least, choosing a higher home, you probably already looking for a mortgage goes. Since MI is would cost 4x Borrower are in your favor. you have a right perceives higher risk of $160,000, and then a range from 0.55% to .
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MI, is an insurance paid 22% equity? How door. When you’re buying of the home you relationships with some of specific premium you’re charged. A limit. Your best Mortgage Insurance for 15 able to create a deep dive into your monthly mortgage our What most buyers can also enter your We occasionally highlight financial Ask your agent about fee tacked on for calculated by taking the mortgage insurance, or MI. Endorsement or a floater. Of the house to once you reach a form the amount of are paid directly to is not directly guaranteed financial products are for up one depending on insurance premiums. Even up to 20% on to securing a mortgage, to finding a home less than 20 percent Insurance.com are from companies or a lump sum We may receive compensation and/or changing your term, insurance for Federal Housing and values that are same factors as a much, but it can percent insurance premium. The as retirement, savings, loans, .
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average mortgage insurance
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techtalkkits-blog · 6 years
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The secret to increasing your typing speed: touch typing
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The touch typing is an English expression that means typing without looking at the keyboard. Without training in touch typing, it is unlikely that you will make any significant progress. You will have to force yourself not to look at your keyboard. It will take a bit of training to acquire a mental representation of your keyboard, so that typing a letter is no longer conscious, but just a reflex. Your keyboard should become an extension of your hands as your mouse is, not something you have to constantly watch to type.
It must be impossible for most of you, but it's actually easier than you think. To give you an idea, after a little over a week, I managed to have a typing speed usable in my daily life. And I was writing lines of code all day with an online chat as the only means of communication, so to tell you that typing was essential for me. While it was not comfortable, but it was enough not to penalize me in my work and already very rewarding because I had made the jump in just two weeks.
For this there is, of course, no secret, it will take training and a little will (but not that much). First of all, you will have to practice a little every day using a software dedicated to this. I personally used Ktouch to do this. You can also try other software like Klavaro, Tipp10 or Type Faster. Take the one that seems to suit you best (although I strongly advise Ktouch, even install a virtual machine under Linux just to have it). Force yourself, every night, to spend 15 to 30 minutes, with a cloth on your hands not to look at the keyboard if necessary. You will progress in stages, but you will see that relatively quickly you will find again a typing comfort.
There are several schools:
> those who will tell you that from the moment you decided to touch typing, you have to do that and force yourself all day, without allowing yourself to look at the keyboard at all.
> those who will tell you that you can watch your keyboard from time to time, but not when you decide to do touch typing. You can insert touch typing sessions of 30 minutes in your day so you do not get too bad at first. And during these 30 minutes, you force yourself not to look at your keyboard.
> those who are inspired by the previous method, but who use a printed sheet of the keyboard to find the keys. It avoids the reflex of looking at the keyboard, and when you are ready, you can remove the sheet and you will not have the reflex to look at the keyboard so far.
For my part, I used the last method, I found it was the least frustrating for me.
Change keyboard layout
The touch typing is a good start, but to get the most out of it, I advise you to change keyboard layout at the same time. Indeed, the QWERTY keyboard layout you are currently using has not been thought for the typing efficiency of the French language. The result is an incessant movement of your hands to access the various keys most used (such as accents), possible pain in the fingers, and a relative efficiency.
In addition, changing keyboard layout at the same time as learning touch typing will allow you to learn touch typing faster and easier. Your brain will learn that when you look at the keyboard, you tap on a conventional QWERTY layout and that when you do not look at your keyboard, you switch to "non-QWERTY" mode with which you do not have bad habits (bad placement of especially fingers).
There are several keyboard layouts designed specifically for speed and comfort typing, just to name a few: Dvorak, Colmak, and Bépo.
I personally chose Bepo. If you type French from time to time, choose it without hesitation (note that I do programming and I write in English a good part of the day with no worries). Some advantages over an AZERTY of benefits:
> the most frequent letters are placed on the row of rest ... > ... taking into account the most common letter sequences; > the vowels, under the left hand, facilitate the alternation of the hands; > pairs () {} «» [] <> "" '', placed side by side, are more accessible.
What's more, the wiki is excellent and contains a lot of useful resources.
On the other hand, if you type only in English, or that accts accés or particular keys of the French language do not matter to you, I would advise you Colmak.
With the combination Bep + Touch Typing, you will quickly exceed your current typing speed. After about a month you should have found the same typing speed as before. In addition to a bonus: your typing speed will continue to increase to at least twice as fast as before. Nice, no?
To measure your progress you can have fun on different sites like TypeRacer (racing cars that you advance by typing) or KeyHero.
Change the keyboard: the icing on the cake
If you want to push the approach to the end, I would strongly advise you to invest in an orthogonal keyboard. These keyboards have the distinction of having the keys aligned vertically, and not offset as normal keyboards. The shift of the keys between the rows coming from the technical constraints of the typewriters, it would be high time to remedy this heresy. It's very comfortable to type on such keyboards. Personally, I could not go back to my main keyboard.
The keyboard I have is a TypeMatrix keyboard. These keyboards have a very good price/quality ratio and even have "skin" with the Bepo keyboard directly. I would advise you to buy a completely blank keyboard or only with the special keys marked on it. Thanks to touch typing, having the letters written on the keys will not help you anyway (and a blank keyboard will force you not to look at it;)).
Another alternative is the Kinesis Advantage keyboard, a little more expensive, but completely adapted to the shape of your fingers.
It's up to you now, you have no excuses for not typing at least twice as fast!
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mstwerkoutworkout · 5 years
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We have a solar eclipse happening 1.20/1.21 (depending on ur time zone). All eclipses represent major endings and new beginnings. This particular eclipse is known as the Lion of Judah blood moon eclipse. The sky will be red. Experts a lil terrified 4 what we bout 2 witness. Meanwhile, I couldn't be more excited. Call me sick but this description matches my love life 🙄💨🤷 Nothing much has changed in my physical World. I'm still learning 2 make peace w/my feelings. I'm finding a new approach these days. Speakin about pain is step 1 in healin. This IG acct is documented proof of the tears I've cried thru words. Writing reminded me changed minds changes Worlds. Instead of focusing on the outside, I choose 2 focus on healing myself. Sometimes I wanna run away & give up. That's when I get invited 2 lead impromptu female healing sessions. Where ppl ask questions about everything I specialize in. It's kinda impossible not 2 believe in urself when all the shit ur gr8 @ is trending. Learning chakra health allows me 2 heal my whole body. In the process of learning myself, shakin my ass like a stank hoe allows me 2 release anything that hurts. Twerkin led me 2 learn my root chakra, which helped me heal my relationship w/my Mom. Which inspired me 2 heal my other female relationships. As I heal my heart chakra, I am healin my male relationships. I share everything I learned online & have a gr8 time journeying! S/O @sippingsocialites 💕🍑😏😘 All of us r different, intricate pieces in the puzzle of life. We each have a purpose. I play the role of a twerkfessional relationship specialist so I can be a mirror 2 others & work in unity 2 heal and remedy all issues. See me when u tired of bein fightin mad all the time. When we r ready 2 be whoever we authentically r, we loose the facade & become who we came 2 Earth 2 be. Some days will be tougher than others. Ladies, reality is birthed thru our womb. Consider healin what hurts thru twerkin. See the men finding their peace & celebrate ur visions. Give urself permission 2 start over. Often 💕! Bounce yo ass. Share ur experince 💕😘 #ElectricLady #TwerkNTone #TeamAlchemy #LuvNLite #HealChallenge #awaken #positivevibesonly https://www.instagram.com/p/BstoEoOH19y/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=ob3jcy0zydof
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