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#Miss Value
holdoncallfailed · 11 months
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SPILLED.
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the other thing about being disabled in academia is everyone is like "yeah we can't do much about the buildings they're old :/" as if "old" being a synonym for "inaccessible" isn't just a constant reminder that the people who built the school did not imagine that someday someone like me might study there
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nonasbirthday · 3 months
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i still can't believe there are folks who say "well GTN is annoying but you just have to get through it and then the other books aren't like that so you'll be fine."
personally i have been chasing the high of GTN ever since i first closed the book
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gothedrals · 2 years
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I miss you blockbuster I miss you cds I miss you little buttons that played song previews in walmart I miss you vhs tapes I miss you blocky tv with rabbit ears that only had 10 channels I miss you scratched dvds from the library I miss you envelopes of developed photos from a film camera I miss you flip phones covered in stickers I miss you physical media
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ar-mage-ddon · 8 months
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new game+
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locusfandomtime · 4 months
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Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
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The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
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kaiminluu · 1 year
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byler x dirty dancing GRAHAHAA
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andy-clutterbuck · 7 months
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THE ONES WHO LIVE SNEAK PEEK
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stuckinapril · 3 months
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Reframing whenever someone decides to leave you out of something or walks out of your life or just all around neglects your presence not as your loss but as theirs…. like that could have been so much more fun w me in it but I wasn’t and that will forever be your loss
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cinnamonsikwate · 4 months
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"why couldn't shuro have just been honest about what he felt with laios and falin it's not that hard" are you. are you White
#dungeon meshi#shuro#toshiro nakamoto#look you can hate him for other things but this is very clearly a case of cultures (& personalities influenced by these cultures) clashing#shuro is japanese/east asian-coded and laios is european white boy#i am not japanese but i also come from a collectivistic society#pakikisama is a filipino value both prized and abhorred#it relies heavily on being able to read social cues and prior knowledge of societal norms#shuro being from a different country/culture is important to his character#his repressed nature is meant to contrast with laios' open one like that's the point#they both had similar upbringings but different coping mechanisms#shuro explicitly admits that he's jealous of laios being able to live life sincerely#anyway the point is they were operating on different expectations entirely and neither had healthy enough communication skills#to hash things out before they got too bad#re his attraction to falin i personally believe he unfortunately mpdg-ed her#she represented something new & different. a fresh drink of water for his parched repressed self#alas not meant to be#i'll be honest the way ryoko kui handles both fantasy & regular racism in dm is more miss than hit for me#i don't doubt that a lot of the shuro hate is based off of marcille's pov of him#marcille famously racist 😭#characters' racist views don't often get (too) challenged#practically everyone is casually racist at some point#anyway. again if you're gonna hate shuro at least hate him for being complicit in human trafficking & slavery#he couldn't help falling for the wrong woman goddamn 😭#calemonsito notes#edit: upon further reflection i take back what i said about toshiro mpdg-ing falin!#i'm sorry toshiro 😭
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bbgatile · 1 year
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we were meant for more than darkness
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twinstxrs · 4 months
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the gorgug-porter conversation is interesting to me because like. yea for the overwhelming majority of the conversation porter’s being shitty & trying to fit gorgug into a box that gorgug just does not fit into by trying to make gorgug’s relationship with his rage more focused on the aggression aspect of it. but then there’s also this specific thing that brennan brought up again in the ap, which is that gorgug’s relationship with his rage is wholly “this is a tool i use to protect my friends.” which isn’t a bad thing! but that’s his Whole relationship with it, & gorgug seems to place next to no value on his rage in relationship to himself. which is problematic, because it’s first & foremost his rage.
being raised in a household with a sort of toxic positivity largely meant that, whether or not it was his parents’ intention, gorgug internalized the message that more traditionally “negative” emotions such as anger are the wrong response to something. part of the reason he prioritizes his artificing is probably because it’s “fixing” things. in comparison to being a barbarian, which gorgug associates with “breaking” things. good vs. bad behavior, in his eyes.
it’s a totally unacceptable bar to measure a 16 y/o by, but i do think part of porter’s reasoning for not letting gorgug multiclass is him recognizing that gorgug generally does not value anger as a valid emotional response to something, at the very least for himself. & that directly conflicts with what being a barbarian is, because whether you like it or not, that rage is what fuels you. but again, barring a kid from pursuing something they deeply care about in part (not entirely, porter has a lot of more bullshit reasons) because of their fundamental values & world outlook is crazy.
so yes, 98% of porter’s reasoning is pretty shitty, immature, rife with a toxic view that there’s only one proper way to access rage, & generally not a good thing to do as a teacher, but also within that reasoning is the 2% of ‘there is a fundamental part of yourself that you only value if you can use it to take care of other people & you need to accept that as something that can take care of you, too.’ but that’s something to discuss with a therapist or a guidance counselor, not something that should hugely impact gorgug’s academic future.
#gorgug thistlespring#fantasy high#dimension 20#fhjy#fhjy spoilers#btw these r just my personal opinions u r 100% free to disagree#gorgug & his rage interest me so deeply because of how deeply that rage existing seems to be against gorgug’s own will#like mechanically classes are choices & you can switch stuff around any time. but gorgug as a barbarian always felt like an unwilling choice#like that 14 y/o kid did not want to have rage. & that really interests me.#i’ve seen people before be like ‘what if gorgug dropped barbarian & went full srtificer’ but i feel like that simply can’t happen??#mechanically yea sure but it always felt like a core part of gorgug that the rage will always be there & it’s a matter of how you channel it#idk. dnd classes narratively being treated as ‘you can not lose this part of you’ even though you technically can#gorgug could be lvl 19 artificer & he’d still have 1 level of barbarian. because that is part of who he is.#btw i don’t think porter truly cares about gorgug valuing his rage only as a way to be a human shield#i think porter just sees that as ‘wrong’ but like. not as in ‘you need to take care of yourself’ & more ‘you aren’t conforming’#he thinks it’s wrong for the wrong reasons. the nastier ‘this is how you should be’ reasons#ppl being like ‘we r being too hard on porter. it’s an 150% courseload gorgug will be overwhelmed’ i think r missing the point bc like.#that is 100% a valid reason to not approve gorgug for multiclassing! but that’s also 100% not the reason porter rejected him.#that whole interaction was basically porter shoving his percieved version of conformity down gorgug’s throat. was v neurodivergent kid coded#no hate to anyone saying that last point btw these r all just opinions#thinking about last ep wilma & digby being like ‘you’re a great barbarian. you’re so great at it. but look at what you made!!!’ like.#they would never mean it like that. but when you only understand half of your son he is going to prioritize the half you do.
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secattention · 3 months
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Moderna CEO admits the company had 100 Thousand Doses of the Covid Vaccine Ready.....in 2019!
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ar-mage-ddon · 7 months
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rusted starlight
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a-sketchy-character · 2 years
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Important pre-babysitting instructions: listen to the sitter, don’t play with the hot stove, don’t let any strangers in the house, and if you do...
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syrupbitee · 6 months
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found these
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