#Halloween Trade | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

jeffhirsch · 2 years

Text

Setting the Record Straight: Best Six Months, Halloween Indicator, Sell in May

It’s that time of year again. The Best Six Months November-April begin next week, and they are even better when they begin in midterm years. But there are the naysayers so here’s the proof. This bar chart from the about to be released 2023 Stock Trader’s Almanac is led to Yale Hirsch’s discovery of this pattern and strategy.

Our Best Six Months Switching Strategy (aka “Halloween Indicator” or “Sell in May”) works. Any research to the contrary that goes back to 1900 on the DJIA (or even further back), is way too far back. Sell in May is an old British saw, soundly based on inherent behavioral finance patterns and the collective cultural behavior of the investment community, but it did not truly become a tradable investment strategy until after WWII.

The issue with starting way back then is the world is a much different place now than 100-plus years ago. Prior to about 1950, farming was a major portion of the U.S. economy and from 1901-1950, August was the best performing month of the year, up 36 times in 49 years (market closed in August 1914 due to World War I) with an average gain of 2.3%. July was the second-best month, up 31 of 50 with an average gain of 1.5%. June was fourth best, averaging 0.9%. Why, you may ask? Simply: planting, sowing, reaping, and harvesting. As crops were planted and then brought to market and sold, cash began to move and so did the stock market.

Agriculture’s share of GDP began to shrink post World War II as industrialization created a growing middle class that moved to the suburbs where hard-earned salaries would be spent filling new homes with all the modern conveniences we all take for granted now. Farming became more efficient and fewer and fewer people worked on the farm.

Suddenly, summer was less about the hard work of harvesting crops and more about vacations and relaxing. As the economy evolved and peoples’ lives changed, the market evolved. June and August went from being top performing months to bottom performing months. August went from #1 to #10 in 1950-2021 with an average DJIA gain of 0.1%. June went from #4 to #9 (0.1% average). The shift in DJIA’s seasonal pattern is clear in the following chart. “Sell in May” is a post WWII pattern, prior to then it would have been “Buy in May”.

While many market participants are hip to the saying “Sell in May and go away,” most forget to get back into the market in the fall. We like to say, “Buy in October and get yourself sober.” Before folks were keen on the Halloween Indicator which calls for getting long stocks on Halloween and the end of October, we created our Best Six Months Switching Strategy in 1986 and first featured it in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Back in 1986 we showed how most of the market’s gains were made in the “Best Six Months (BSM)” from November to April and that the market went sideways in the “Worst Six Months (WSM)” from May to October and is most susceptible to major declines during the Worst Six Months. From April 1950 to October, 21 2022 the S&P 500 has gained 2721.33 points versus 1013.35 points in the WSM. These six months combined have produced an average DJIA gain of 7.3% since 1950 compared to an average gain of just 0.8% during the months May to October.

We have improved the results of the strategy using the MACD technical indicator. Back in 1999 the late Sy Harding enhanced the BSM strategy by employing the late Gerry Appel’s MACD to improve entries and exits and dubbed it, “the best mechanical system ever.” Over the years we have refined the strategy further by corroborating more than one MACD, looking for confirmation across major market indices and taking MACD triggers earlier in the month.

We issued our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal to members on October 4 and have also issued baskets of seasonal sector ETF and undervalued, under-the-radar stock trades.

#october #stock market #seasonality #best six months #halloween strategy #Halloween Trade #Halloween #indicator #Sell in May #Midterm Elections #midterm year #Bear market #bull market

5 notes · View notes

testoster0ne · 8 months

Text

chase

#autumn #fall #pumpkin spice #cocktober #meat #halloween #trade #male

2K notes · View notes

dailyfigures · 8 months

Text

Hello Kitty ; Sanrio Characters ☆ Kidrobot

767 notes · View notes

millipede-menace · 7 months

Text

They’re trading candy~

#halloween #happy halloween #rottmnt #enjoy my shitty doodle #leoichi #my art #leonardo #yuichi usagi #leosagi #miyamoto usagi #lou jitsu #technically #they’re trading candies #uwu #no updates #just halloweenie

396 notes · View notes

thecaywild · 7 months

Text

May I give you some treats…

181 notes · View notes

lupucs · 8 months

Text

My part of an art trade with the amazing Sphinxmothra, featuring their vampire gals 🦇 Here's Sphinxmothra's part, check em out!

#blender #3D #vampires #art trade #sphinxmothra #character modeling #Halloween #halloween 2023

175 notes · View notes

card-of-the-day · 7 months

Text

Today's Card Is: Hallowe'en

#card of the day #neopets #neopets trading card game #october 31 2023 #happy halloween

199 notes · View notes

wenalena · 7 months

Text

Happy Halloween 🎃 !

It's a wonderfull art trade with the adorable and talented @cloned-eyes 🖤🖤

#star wars #the bad batch #tbb #wrecker #tbb wrecker #art trade #the bad batch wrecker #halloween #happy halloween #look at this big boy #the bad batch fanart #star wars fanart

95 notes · View notes

monstermelodies · 2 years

Text

Universal Monsters trick-or-treat trading cards (Impel 1991)

1K notes · View notes

trainerjoshie · 7 months

Text

🎃👻 Spooky Pokémon TCG Promotional Art illustrations by AKIRA EGAWA 😍❤️

109 notes · View notes

k-i-l-l-e-r-b-e-e-6-9 · 2 years

Photo

Distant Thunder (1993) by Bernie Wrightson

847 notes · View notes

comicbooktradingcards · 2 years

Photo

Happy Halloween!

#halloween #comic book trading cards

585 notes · View notes

idyllhaze · 7 months

Text

Baskerville Qiao

62 notes · View notes

dailyfigures · 7 months

Text

Pumpkaboo & Mimikyu & Gengar & Unown & Misdreavus & Teddiursa ; Pokemon ☆ Re-Ment

309 notes · View notes

chocolatechipkraken · 7 months

Text

Shoutout to those sweet eyeball rubber ducks that Oriental Trading used to sell. I wanted one but I never bought any, and alas they are now discontinued :(

#my art #little guys #cute #illustration #lineless illustration #creepy cute #eyeballs #rubber duck #spooky #halloweencore #halloween #oriental trading

60 notes · View notes

brokehorrorfan · 10 months

Text

Spirit Halloween has released a life-size Mars Attacks martian warrior animatronic for $400. Standing 6.5' tall, it lights up, makes sounds, moves its head, and shoots mist from its gun.

#mars attacks #topps #tim burton #90s movies #1990s movies #spirit halloween #toy #gift #halloween #halloween decorations #halloween decor #mars attacks!#topps trading cards #jack nicholson #ilm

125 notes · View notes