stop telling people that voting doesn't matter stop it stop it

incremental change is frustrating and feels like it gets nothing done but it's how the american government works (for better or for worse) and if you get paralyzed by 'we need to revolt voting doesn't matter' that's one more effective vote for the fascists since it's one vote we lose.

I'd much rather have slow but tangible progress (or even just prevention of fascist progression) than everyone sitting around going 'let's wait for the revolution' when no revolution is likely to come while everything gets worse around us.

Obviously, still do whatever it is else to support the antifascist movement. Donate where you can (and do your research!) Go to protests if you feel safe doing so. But do all that AND vote.

Political Rant: Nothing To See Here

Literally, I just need to vent for a bit, just move along.  You didn’t see anything.  Go about your business.

I can’t keep pretending that I want Joe Biden to be president.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m gonna vote for him, but only because it’s a broken 2-party system, and I would literally rather die than vote for Donald Trump.

Joe Biden is at best a moderate centrist, and at worst a mainstream conservative who acknowledges what the people in his party want without actually doing it.  The Overton Window has shifted so far right in the last few years that people are hailing him as some bastion of liberal democracy; Democrats are acting like he’s the greatest politician they’ve ever nominated, and Republicans are calling him a communist.  He’s neither of those things; he’s store brand white bread, he’s a single scoop of plain vanilla with no mix-ins, he’s room temperature with 40% humidity so as not to be explicitly uncomfortable.

He very well could win in November.  I don’t doubt his qualifications, nor his popularity relative to the Gonad Lump we have now, but he’s not going to make any substantive changes if he takes office.  He’s not going to defund police, he’s not going to shrink the executive branch, he’s not going to raise the minimum wage, he’s not going to rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal or the Paris Climate Agreement or the WHO, and he’s certainly not going to abolish ICE and close the actual literal CONCENTRATION CAMPS. He’s going to uphold the status quo so as not to alienate the Republicans who didn’t vote for him, while driving a wedge in his own party between the old guard moderate leadership and the up-and-comers who even so much as lean to the actual political left.

Republicans are united under a common banner of cartoon supervillainy, Democrats are a party of chickens running around with their heads cut off. 

Republicans are lemmings who will follow their leader off a cliff. Democrats are turkeys that look up and drown when it rains.

There are no progressive Democrats in any real positions of power; their voices are being drowned out by the career politicians who would rather compromise with the right than fight for anything they claim to want.  Democrats will bend over backwards to reach across the aisle for the sake of bipartisanship, but Republicans would never budge an inch in our direction.  This is demonstrably true, just look at the last 50 years of presidents; Democrats controlled the House of Representatives for Ronald Reagan’s entire presidency, and he still managed to get a shit ton of legislation passed which fucks over the middle class and minorities to this day.

Bill Clinton was effectively a Republican, and they absolutely HATED him.  Newt Ging-bitch’s Republican Revolution?  And Obama, don’t even get me started on Obama.  George W. Bush was so unpopular that BOTH parties ran candidates under the platform of “I am not George W. Bush,” and it’s no surprise that between Barack Obama and John McCain voters chose the one who was the least like Bush.  Obama was a perfectly competent president who pulled us out of the worst economic recession since the 1930s, and Republicans hated him even more than Clinton!  The Tea Party rose up less than a month after he took office, before he’d even DONE anything!  I don’t agree with everything he did as president, in fact I oppose a lot of it (drones), but I know that America was a better place under his leadership than it is now.

And now the Democrats are kowtowing to the Republicans AGAIN, nominating an adequate politician, Average Joe, that Republicans wouldn’t complain about if he wore a red tie instead of a blue one, but even now they’re complaining about it!  They’re acting like he’s a far-left socialist because they want the country to think that his middle-of-the-road policies are WAY too radical; they want to make people think that normalcy lies to the right of Joe Biden, they want to keep shifting the Overton Window until they pick a candidate in 2032 or 2036 that will make Donald Trump look like Bernie fucking Sanders.  Republicans never shift to the left, they never try to appeal to Democratic voters, they never think twice about alienating liberals, they won’t compromise, they’d rather shut down the government than spare a dime for any even remotely liberal talking points.

I’m sick to death of this country.  I’m sick to death of everyone pretending like what we see is not what it is!  Joe Biden is better than Trump, but the bar is so low at this point that I’d feel ore comfortable with a flaming bag of dogshit in the Oval Office than the racist date rapist we have now.  I will swallow my pride and vote for Joe Biden, but I will not be happy about it.  This man does not stand for the people’s best interests.  He will face overwhelming opposition, cave to the pressure from the right, then lose re-election because I know for a fact that he’s too proud to admit he’s too old to run again in 2024.  People keep pretending like his VP is going to get the nomination, but there’s no way on Earth or in Heaven that this man is going to just retire!  This year was a vanity run; he wants to be president because he wants to be president, not because he wants to do anything.  He’s wanted it his whole career; he’s a dog chasing cars, he doesn’t know what to do when he catches one, and no, I don’t means he’s like the fucking Joker, I just think he’s focusing more on himself than the country.  What would it look like in 2024 if the president retired because he’s TOO OLD to keep the job?  The Democrats would be even bigger laughingstocks than they are now; there wouldd be no way for him to retire with dignity without admitting defeat and giving the Republicans a political victory.

He’s going to run for re-election in 2024, and he’s going to have his ass handed to him because by that point he’s going to be stumbling over his words even worse than Trump is now, and the Democrats aren’t going to blindly rally behind him like the Republicans do for Trump.  Republicans will vote in line with Trump whether they like him or not, they know their career depends on it, but Democrats won’t get in line behind one of their own because they want to appeal to everyone, even if that means ignoring the people they claim to represent.

If Trump wins in 2020, America will go the way of the Soviet Union.  You know what, no, that’s not true.  America will never break apart, it’s too obstinate.  What will happen is America will go the way of the British Empire; once a global superpower, now just a bunch of isolationist racists who don’t know they’ve been irrelevant for the last 80 years.  America will continue to alienate its allies while sucking up to its enemies, the wealth gap will widen, life expectancy will drop, infant mortality will rise, and we’ll peak in the 2030s or 40s before losing our position as the de facto “leaders of the free world.”  Under normal circumstances I’d say that’s a good thing because we have no right to force the rest of the world to do whatever we want, but the resulting power vacuum will almost certainly be filled by China which is even worse than we are.  If Trump wins in 2020, democracy dies.  His handlers will find a way to skirt the 22nd Amendment so he can run for a third term in 2024.  They’ll just unilaterally amend the constitution so he can do whatever he wants; every right-wing dictator does that.  Hitler did it, Pinochet did it, Putin is doing it now.  IF the Republicans want to PRETEND that laws still exist, they’ll have him “retire” at the end of his second term, but then stay on as a top advisor to his successor, who will almost certainly be his daughter he wants to fuck, at which point he will be president-by-proxy, ruling vicariously through her until his brain melts enough for him to disappear into the woodwork like Reagan did in the 90s.

If Trump wins in 2020, the Trump dynasty will hold power for decades.  This regime will be no different than the fucking Saudi Arabia or North Korea.

If Biden wins in 2020, we’re just kicking the can down the road; Trump won’t let himself become irrelevant without a fight.  Carter and Clinton and Bush and Obama don’t pretend that they’re still president, they don’t make their voices heard, but you KNOW that Trump will.  He will try to stay in the limelight forever, and the media will let him; they’ll report on every snide comment and contrarian remark he makes on Twitter and compare him to Biden every single day because he’s a demagogue, and Republicans aren’t just gonna move on after they’ve invested so much emotional capital into him over the last five years.  They’ve doubled down in support of him, he can do no wrong in their eyes, he’s their golden boy, the Fuhrer is Always Right; they’ll follow him to Hell and back (though let’s be honest, he’d never lead them out of Hell once he brings them there).  They’ll treat him like an elder statesman and a genius political strategist/advisor until he dies.  He’ll basically get to pick the nominee in 2024 because Republicans will vote for whoever he endorses.  And he’s going to pick Ivanka or maybe, MAYBE, Tom Cotton because he’s a brown-nosing right-wing toadie.

FUCK.

Warning, long post. TL/DR at bottom.

Okay so I've got a real hot take about the primaries.

And I'm just gonna stress this now. This is by no means fact checkable and is closer to a conspiracy theory than like, an actual reality we need to worry about. So please don't come at me for spreading false news. This isn't news. Its just a theory.

But I high key think our elections have been rigged again.

In short: my theory is that the obscene number of people that were running for the primaries who have since dropped out, never ACTUALLY wanted to run. They were just there to collect and hand over votes to Biden.

And I know that sounds nuts but let me walk you through my thought process here.

1- Not a single person I've spoken to or heard of, either in person or online, has said they wanted to vote for Biden. He was literally no ones first choice. Even the more conservative centrist end of people were saying Bloomberg before Biden.

2- a common joke amongst late night hosts has been just how ridiculous it was that sooooooo many people were running and how no one was willing to back down or quit, even when they had no chance.

3- Beyond just your pride, which will hurt either way, dropping out after voting has already started makes no sense. Spending all the time, money, and resources, on a presidential campaign for months if not years, just to drop out in the first week of the primaries makes no sense. At that point it's not like you can get your money back. So why drop out at that point?

Dropping out just before, when you see your polling low, makes sense. Cause it means not splitting the vote. But after? That means people that already voted for you don't really get the chance to vote their second choice. Their votes are basically just given to whoever you endorse.

Which brings me to

4- Pretty much every candidate who has dropped out after voting began has given their delegates to Biden. Like, even the ones who had basically nothing in common with his campaign. Even the ones who said they hated him the whole time they were "against" each other. And even the ones who claimed to be more progressive and aligned with Bernie when discussing their views and plans.

And I know I'm not the only one who has noticed this cause I've seen the memes, as well as the serious posts, all talking about how ridiculous it is for the media to claim Warrens delegates should go to Biden "cause he was the 2nd choice for most of her voters". Like no. He wasn't. She was Bernie's direct competition. They had incredibly similar campaigns. Warren and Biden had NOTHING in common policy wise.

5- The web domain for Bernie sanders currently redirects you to a donation page for Biden. Like You click the link thinking its for Bernie, and the only way to figure out your actually donating to Biden instead is to scroll up first or see it after you've already donated.

These above factors, mixed with a variety of other little things that just don't add up, have me pretty convinced there's something shady going on.

And the most probable cause in my opinion is a rigged election.

I know that seems like it would be hard to do. But honestly its pretty simple.

Copious choice splits the vote. Which makes it easier for them. So that was step one.

Then step two. Misleading voters into thinking these planted candidates are more progressive, which seeds false security by making them think they will endorse Bernie or another progressive candidate if they do drop out.

Step three is collect votes and delegates early on then drop out and give them to Biden. All of a sudden Biden has all the delegates and is somehow winning despite a huge portion of that being votes he didn't actually earn himself.

Step four will be people giving up and letting him win the primaries. They are literally already trying to end the primaries early and hand the win to Biden as I type this up.

And honestly.

I don't think step 5 will even be giving Biden the presidency. I don't think he's involved at all actually. I wholeheartedly think it'll be giving it to trump.

I think rigging the primaries in favor of Biden is jist phase one in a two part plan to get Trump re elected. And here's why:

1- Our last elections were hacked by the russians in trumps favor and there was literally 0 backlash for that for either of them.

2- Trump and his team just learned that they literally can get away with anything including trying to rig elections. He literally was impeached for this and got away with it. Soooo why shouldn't he do it if he knows its allowed for him?

3- There's no real know incentives for anyone with the ability to rig elections to rig them in the dems favor. The agenda of rigging elections is gaining power and money and it can only be done if you have some of that already. And who do the rich powerful people want to be in charge? Not Biden. And for SURE not Bernie.

4- Speaking of the impeachment trial.

Remember way back when the whole impeachment case story broke? Remember people making jokes about the fact that trump chose Biden of all people to get dirt on? Remember people thinking it was ridiculous cause there was no way he was gonna win the primaries?

Well. This is adding an extra layer of conspiracy to this conspiracy theory. But what if the plan to rig the election was already being formed back then?

What if Trump knew that Biden would eventually be the one running against him because he knew it would be rigged as such?

And I know your wondering why they would want Biden to be the one against trump as opposed to any of the other guys.

Well. Have y'all read the responses to the primaries so far? Everyone hates Biden. Like yeah we hate trump more. But I've already seen posts of people saying voting for Biden would be "just as bad".

I'm seeing people lose hope in Bernie winning or their voices being heard. And I'm seeing in fighting amongst people who are mad their first choice didn't win. All of this means potentially low voter turn out.

Especially amount younger more progressive voters who have taken a "Bernie or Bust" mentality.

And we know what happened when we take that stance. Cause its the same one that happened last time.

I know Hillary wasn't a perfect person or candidate either. And I too would have preferred Bernie in the last election.

But all that: "she's just as bad" "my votes don't count anyway" "id rather vote 3rd party than her" "Bernie or Bust"

All that.

Is how he won last time.

So all I'm saying is. Them rigging primaries in favor of a candidate they know most of the democratic voter base actually hates, makes it a lot easier to secure trump gets re-elected.

And the people potentially being pissed that Bernie lost primaries twice in a row wont help.

Even if my whole crazy theory is wrong. Even if their is no real evil plot being done here. That last point still stands.

If by some bizarre twist of fate. Biden wins the primaries. Be it honestly or by stealing delegates from the drop outs. He's still better than Trump.

Be prepared for that other shoe to drop.

Be prepared for the memes and social discourse trying to convince you not to vote or to throw away your vote on a 3rd party.

Be prepared for what ever dirt trump was trying to get on him to be released.

And know that he will STILL no matter what. Be better than Trump.

And in case I am right. And we are in the middle of an attempted coup.

Then this next part becomes twice as important.

If you live in a state that hasn't voted yet. PLEASE show up for Bernie.

I hate telling people how to vote. But mathematically speaking the only possible outcomes at this stage are Biden or Bernie. So for the love of god stop wasting votes on the other guys. Its almost as bad as voting third party for the actual election.

Plus if I'm right there's a 50/50 chance of those underdog votes being party of the conspiracy and going to Biden in the end.

If Biden really is your 2nd choice then fine. This doesn't apply to you.

But if you hate Biden and you prefer the more progressive stances, and your hoping for someone similar to Bernie, then just fucking vote Bernie.

Cause we learned from Warren that we cant trust ANYONE to give their endorsement to Bernie when they drop out.

So vote Bernie.

And if y'all don't, and we end of with Biden. I don't wanna hear any complaints.

If we get Biden then we gotta vote Biden. End of story.

Cause if Trumps re elected its game over.

He's already talking about extending his term limits or straight up erasing them. He wants to be a dictator and he's WELL on his way to achieving that.

He's proven above the law. And when the system fails the only hope left is the people.

Its 100% on us to make sure trump dosnt win. Its 100% on us to stay vigilant and not fall for the BS designed to turn things in his favor. It's 100% on us to show up, speak up, and carry a big ass stick of democracy.

Sorry for the long ass post. But I've been getting more and more suspicious/nervous by the day.

TL/DR: The primaries may or may not be rigged in Biden's favor. And that might be part of an even bigger plot to get Trump reelected. Don't waste your vote on 3rd party or underdogs. Please fucking don't inadvertently hand the election to trump.

And remember that I'm not a news source. Just a concerned citizen who worries too much and is hoping to inform/ warn people about a possible threat to our democracy.

I've not paid a lot of attention to these primary debates, usually they tend to be my thing, but ya know. Life.

Policy-wise Bernie, Biden, Warren, Harris are mostly interchangeable.

There are large differences in some policy ideas but it's more semantics than real substance differences.

"How do we get to X" rather than "lets do y rather than x".

All four will push almost the exact same policy from the White House, with the possible exception of free-trade policy. (And let me be clear here, I'm a proponent of free trade and was a strong backer of Obama's TPP).

The Democratic party, moderates to liberals to Democratic socialists aren't as different as they once were. In large part as a reaction to Conservatives hollowing out their own party from 2008 - present and moving to the right, but Republicans decimated moderate Democrats from 2010-2015 across the nation from national to local government races.

There's also no real kingmakers left in the Republican party absent Trump himself, and his support only matters in a primary battle. 2018 showcased Trump's temperament and policy positions as liabilities in general elections -- no President has cost his party as dearly as Trump did in 2018 for decades.

To beat Trump in 2020, whoever wins this race has to convince Republicans who defected from the party over Iraq and the ecconomy in 2006-2008, and from Trump in 2018 over his temperament and policies to support them in 2020, while being able to drive voters to the polls like 2018. That's no small thing.

But if we can succeed in that, if progressives (and I am one) can just be a little patient as we establish new programs and new norms, and avoid eating our own when things inevitably take a bit longer than expected, and avoid becoming the Left's Tea-Party, we still stand a solid chance at real lasting change in America.

But it's not going to be a "revolution". Even FDR's programs didn't go nearly as far as envisioned because courts kept scaling back his plans.

(Likewise Obama struggled with right-wing courts turning back his programs, like hammering the ACA's mediciad expansion, and turning back so much of his environmental policy).

Non the less, others like LBJ built upon his sucess. Clinton, and Obama did likewise, picking up the torch and lighting up the pathways their predecessors hadn't yet reached.

"Revolutionary" is a nice buzzword. But it's meaningless. It's propaganda. It's designed to sell you somthing.

What's worse is it leads younger generations embittered against "the establishment" for stopping their progress. (Spoiler, plenty of people in that establishment fought for the very things you are and built the bedrock you are trying to expand).

You need to keep this in mind. Don't get disenchanted when things take longer than you expected. Don't abandon those fighting for you, they can't do it alone. Change is messy. It's as likely to go sideways as forward sometimes. Occasionally you also have to lose a battle to win a war.

The Affordable Care Act is a good example. Republicans fought it tooth and nail for over a decade, voted over 50 times to repeal it when they didn't have the means to actually do it, and even shut down the government over it. Yet even they couldn't dismantle Obamacare directly. They didn't have the votes to actually do what they'd voted symbolicly to do for a decade. Because it was too popular by then.

Bernie's or Warren's or anyone else's push for single-payer wouldn't be possible without them standing on the shoulders of people who pressed and got passed, enacted and defended precious legislation.

Lasting change isn't a sprint, it's a marathon.

POLITICS

The 13 Races That Will Determine The Senate Majority

— NPR | October 29, 2020 | Susan Davis

President Trump campaigned with Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., in Prescott, Ariz., this month. McSally is a top target of Senate Democrats, who are hoping to flip her seat blue on Election Day. Alex Brandon/AP

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. (There are two independents — Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont — but they caucus with Democrats and therefore should be counted that way in the math for Senate control.)

To flip the Senate, Democrats would need to net-gain four seats outright or three seats and control of the White House, because in a 50-50 Senate — which is possible this year — the vice president breaks the tie. Republicans can lose up to three seats and hold the majority, as long as President Trump wins reelection.

Democrats are forecast to gain two to six seats. Control of the Senate remains a jump ball days out from Election Day. These are the races that will decide it:

Democratic-held seats (Republicans favored to gain one seat)

Alabama: Sen. Doug Jones is the only Democratic incumbent in a tough race this year. He is expected to lose to former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, the Republican challenger. Trump remains wildly popular in Alabama, and it would be very difficult for Jones to overcome that advantage in a nationalized political climate. A Republican pickup here would mean Democrats would need to pick up four GOP-held seats and win the White House for Senate control.

Republican-held Seats (Democrats Favored to Gain Two to Six Seats)

Arizona: GOP Sen. Martha McSally is running against Democrat Mark Kelly, the popular and well-known former astronaut turned gun control advocate after the 2011 Tucson shooting of his wife, then-Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Ariz. Kelly has led in all but one public poll in 2020. Kelly has also significantly outraised McSally.

Colorado: Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is running against former Gov. John Hickenlooper, a former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate. Hickenlooper initially indicated he was not interested in a Senate run but jumped in after his presidential campaign faded. He has run a lackluster campaign, but the overall Democratic pull of the state is probably enough to carry Hickenlooper to victory.

Iowa: First-term GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is running against real estate developer Theresa Greenfield. This race has gotten increasingly competitive in the closing months of the campaign. Ernst had been the early favorite for reelection, but the race has become a toss-up in the close.

Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running against Democrat Sara Gideon, the state's House speaker. Few others have seen their political stock fall as fast as Collins has. Once one of the most popular senators in the U.S., she now ranks at the bottom. The polarization of the Trump era has done no favors for centrist moderates. Collins is a savvy campaigner and knows her state and how to win, but Gideon has been able to capitalize on Collins' sinking political clout and anti-Trump sentiment.

Montana: Republican Sen. Steve Daines is running against term-limited Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, arguably the only Democrat who could make Montana competitive for the party. Bullock is well-known and has generally been given decent marks by voters for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Montana is a red state that wants to stay that way, and that helps Daines. A Bullock victory would be a telling sign of a broader Democratic wave.

North Carolina: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is running against attorney Cal Cunningham, a former state senator. This is widely viewed as the tipping-point race — whoever wins here will likely represent the party in control of the Senate. Cunningham had all the advantages, but late-breaking reports of marital infidelity will test whether old-school political scandals still register with voters.

Potential Election Night Surprises

Alaska: GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is running against orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who is technically an independent but will appear on the ballot as a Democrat. Trump won Alaska by 16 points in 2016, and Sullivan should be able to pull out a win. But Gross has run a surprisingly strong campaign aided by waves of grassroots Democratic fundraising, including after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. There isn't regular or reliable polling in this race.

Georgia 1: Republican Sen. David Perdue is running against Democrat Jon Ossoff, best known for running and losing a high-profile 2017 special election for a U.S. House seat. Perdue has been a Trump loyalist in a state that is increasingly more purple than red. Republicans are bullish that Perdue can win reelection, but the risk of a Jan. 5 runoff is real unless a candidate wins at least 50%. A third-party candidate, Libertarian Shane Hazel, is complicating that path.

Georgia special election: Appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler is running to serve out the term of former Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson, who retired early for health reasons. Loeffler is a wealthy businesswoman. If no candidate gets at least 50% — which is unlikely — the top two vote-getters go to a Jan. 5 runoff. Loeffler has to fend off both a Republican challenge from Rep. Doug Collins and the top expected Democratic vote-getter, Raphael Warnock. Warnock is a civil rights leader and pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, the same church where Martin Luther King Jr. served. If control of the Senate comes down to Georgia, it might not be known until January 2021.

Kansas: This is an open-seat race because Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is retiring. Republican Rep. Roger Marshall is running against doctor and state Sen. Barbara Bollier. Marshall is the GOP establishment's pick and is favored to win. Bollier is a Republican turned Democrat who has focused on her medical background during the pandemic.

South Carolina: Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham is running against former Democratic congressional aide Jaime Harrison. Trump won South Carolina by 14 points in 2016, and Graham has transformed from Trump critic to Trump champion since then. Harrison has been able to turn a long-shot bid into a well-funded campaign that is polling competitively. The conservative roots of the state keep Graham as favored to win. A loss could be an indication of a massive Democratic-wave election.

Texas: Republican Sen. John Cornyn is favored against Democratic challenger MJ Hegar and has consistently led in public polling. A Democratic victory here would be a major upset and would likely be contingent on a surprise Joe Biden win in the state. Texas is also seeing a surge in voter turnout across the state, fueling Democratic hopes that the polls are wrong and 2020 is the year Texas goes blue.

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Bbc news Primaria de Carolina del Sur: dónde estamos en la carrera demócrata

Bbc news

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Describe copyright Getty Pictures

The Democratic mosey is entertaining south as voters in South Carolina secure their notify on who must be the birthday celebration's White Residence nominee.

We're restful a prolonged map off incandescent who will secure on Donald Trump in the autumn, but after the three contests to this point - Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada - Senator Bernie Sanders leads, trailed by ex-mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Extinct Vice-President Joe Biden is calling on the explain - and its African-American voters in explicit - as a lifestyles raft for his floundering advertising and marketing campaign.

Whoever wins on Saturday night will set up both delegates and fundamental momentum into the spring.

That is what to secure a study out for in the next leg of the 2020 election.

Bbc news A brief refresher

Or now not it's main season in The US.

Initiating with the Iowa caucuses in February, all the map to a Puerto Rico main in June, the birthday celebration nominee will be chosen thru a sequence of contests in every US explain and territory.

In all chance, the Republican nominee will be Trump. Nevertheless for Democrats, or now not it's restful a toss-up. The finaleight candidatesare hoping to maintain an unbeatable majority of1,990 delegatesnationwide - awarded thru caucuses and primaries - to ensure their nomination.

South Carolina's voters will solid the final votes ahead of so-called Perfect Tuesday subsequent week, when a third of delegates will be chosen.

Bbc news One particular person to witness

Describe copyright Getty Pictures

Prognosis by the BBC's Anthony Zurcher

Joe Biden became as soon as the determined entrance-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. About a weeks ago, after a string of defeats, his advertising and marketing campaign teetered on the edge of electoral abyss. Now the dilapidated vice-president is scrambling his map abet into competitors.

While the advertising and marketing campaign is reluctant to confess it, the South Carolina main - the first in the southern US, with an voters that better reflects the diversity of the Democratic Occasion than Iowa or New Hampshire - is set up or rupture for Biden.

"In case you send me out of South Carolina with a victory," Biden said on Wednesday, "there will be no stopping us."

That stays to be viewed. This a lot is for certain, then again.

Purchase, and Biden's advertising and marketing campaign lives to compete in the explain contests ahead. Lose, and or now not it's on the subject of time to lower the curtain on his half of-century profession in American politics.

Be taught more from Anthony right here.

Bbc news One number

Getty Pictures

20 delegatesBernie Sanders' newest lead over his 2020 opponents

Because it stands, Senator Bernie Sanders sits on the tip of the Democratic pile in phrases of delegate depend.

He is20 delegates aheadof his nearest competitor, Pete Buttigieg, who trails with25, followed by Joe Biden's15.

With months to mosey and thousands of delegates left unclaimed, a mere 20-delegate incompatibility could perchance perchance now not appear to be a lot. Nevertheless the shrimp sum belies Sanders' an increasing number of ambitious lead.

The 78-year-used solidified his frontrunner station final week after claiming a decisive victory in Nevada.

And, importantly, entrance polls demonstrate he received a commanding53% of the Hispanic vote. This could occasionally perchance perchance indicate there could be more merely info coming for Sanders as he moves to votes in both California and Texas subsequent week - both diverse and delegate-heavy states.

Bbc news One question

What does this all-white candidate subject acquire unhealthy about African American voters?

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Media captionThe supreme fantasy relating to the 'gloomy vote'

Bbc news One side to witness for

South Carolina Republicans received't acquire a serious on Saturday, but some will vote anyway.

It is miles one among 15 states with ancommence main, meaning that Democrats, Republicans and unbiased voters alike can all solid their ballots in the Democratic contest.

And some conservative groups, like Operation Chaos, are taking income - encouraging Republicans to solid a pollfor Bernie Sanders.

The "main cause" is to reveal commence primaries, said Christopher Sullivan, an organiser for Operation Chaos.

Nevertheless, as Sullivan sees it, there could be additionally a fringe income: disrupt the Democratic mosey.

So why Sanders?

Describe copyright Getty Pictures

Senator Sanders is the candidate that the Democratic establishment "least needs", Sullivan says. "I mediate this would perchance perchance prolong the distress of the Democratic main for the Democrats."

The actual affect of this so-called "birthday celebration raiding" on outcomes is belief of as nominal, but will seemingly be a speaking point as Saturday's main unfolds.

Bbc news One voter

Nicholas Judd, 18, Aiken, South Carolina

I secure but to utilize a candidate that I enhance, and even a birthday celebration as I'm a moderate, centrist unbiased. I'm going to wait to listen to from both nominees in the lead as a lot as the regular election to utilize whether to vote for the first birthday celebration nominees or to jot down in a candidate that I will morally enhance. It appears that there are too many candidates that I construct now not like fairly than particular person who I will actually enhance.

What's at stake in the election, I mediate, is for The US to search out its instruct as a unified explain. No topic the tip result, I mediate the greatest and essential task for the country is to search out healing and team spirit from the tumultuous previous four years.

What matters to voters in your explain? [email protected]

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Small-dollar campaign fundraising is a notorious black box. The Federal Election Commission releases candidates’ fundraising data regularly, but campaigns are only required to reveal the names of donors who give more than $200. Data about presidential grassroots fundraising — the small-dollar donations that candidates are always bragging about — has long been much harder to come by.

Not this year.

ActBlue, the payment processor used by all the major Democratic presidential candidates, disclosed six months of fundraising data to the FEC this week. When combined with other FEC data, it’s now possible to track between 90 and 99 percent of individual donations made to most Democratic candidates.1

And it shows that Democrats are far from wearing their donors out.

At least 2.4 million people2 have pumped about $209 million into the campaigns of major Democratic presidential contenders3 during the first half of 2019, according to an analysis of campaign finance data by the Center for Public Integrity and FiveThirtyEight.

That’s a jump of more than 70 percent over the amount that individual donors gave to presidential candidates of both parties combined at the same point in 2015.

The analysis also indicates that more people are giving now than did a few months ago. Of the $209 million total given by individual donors, full donor information was unavailable for about $13 million worth of donations. Among the $196 million for which we have detailed donor information,4 we found that the number of Democratic presidential campaign donors who gave in June, the last month of the second fundraising quarter, was 25 percent higher than the number who gave in March, at the end of the first fundraising quarter.5

“The ceiling on that is very, very high, and I don’t think we’re anywhere close to it,” said Erin Hill, the executive director of ActBlue.

The Center for Public Integrity/FiveThirtyEight analysis of the $196 million for which we have full donor information found:

Nearly one out of every three donors who have given to any presidential campaign have donated to Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Democrat who has by far the largest number of donors of any of the Democratic candidates. (That doesn’t mean they gave exclusively to Sanders — many people have given money to multiple Democratic candidates.)

About one in five donors have given to two or more Democratic presidential candidates so far this year. About 150,000 people gave to three or more Democratic candidates. This is likely at least partially an effect of the Democratic National Committee requiring candidates to surpass donation thresholds as one criterion for participating in presidential debates.

Slightly more than $1 out of every $3 given to Democratic presidential candidates came from donors in California or New York. Those states are reliable Democratic ATMs.

President Trump, who began raising money for his re-election campaign as soon as he took office, has so far raised about $135.6 million toward the 2020 election. That includes tens of millions from small-dollar donors (those who give a total of $200 or less), and his large fundraising numbers, coupled with token primary opposition and his control of the party, have so far given him a financial advantage.

But the sprawling field of Democratic presidential candidates has combined to outraise him, despite his head start, suggesting that if the party’s donors consolidate behind the eventual nominee, Democrats stand ready to tap a massive pool of proven — and recent — donors keen on defeating Trump.

In interviews, donors said they are intentionally giving early in the presidential primary process this time, often to multiple candidates, because they want to send a message about Democratic strength and make sure they help shape the primary outcome.

“Money kinda talks,” said Patti Cooreman of Clarksville, Michigan, who gave $250 each to the presidential campaigns of Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former Vice President Joe Biden. “I want to show Democratic support and be counted.”

Cooreman said she backs Biden, but she wanted Klobuchar to make the debate stage and will ultimately support whoever wins the nomination, including by donating.

The DNC is going to do everything it can to make sure Cooreman and other donors like her follow through on that intent. In return for access to the party’s 50-state voter file — a key database campaigns use to identify and cultivate potential supporters — the DNC required candidates to send joint fundraising emails and split the proceeds with the party. That will give the DNC access to a wider pool of donors for future fundraising appeals.

Individual donors can give up to $2,800 per candidate per election, which means donors who’ve given only a few dollars per candidate so far can give repeatedly before coming close to the legal maximum — and other candidates can tap them, too.

“If they’re giving in smaller amounts now, there’s more capacity for them to give later,” said Brendan Glavin, senior data analyst for the Campaign Finance Institute.

For now, the number of donors giving to multiple campaigns gives us some clues as to where candidates overlap.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, for example, has more than 60,000 donors in common with Sanders and also shares 60,000 with Harris, based on a Center for Public Integrity/FiveThirtyEight analysis that looked for unique combinations of first names, last names and ZIP codes. Sanders and Harris, meanwhile, share about 19,500.

Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who raised the most money from individual donors in the second quarter,6 shares nearly 54,000 donors with Warren. He also shares about 45,000 donors with Harris, about 25,000 with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas and about 21,000 with Biden.

Robert Galemmo, a donor from San Francisco, California, has so far given multiple times to presidential candidates this year. That includes $300 in contributions to Sanders and $550 in contributions to Warren. Why? Because he wants to influence the process early and make sure Democrats choose a “progressive” nominee.

“A hundred dollars here, a hundred dollars there is not a massive amount of money, but there are a number of people doing that with me. And if I vote with my money to support a progressive candidate … this is going to catapult them to the front,” Galemmo said.

Amanda Litman, the co-founder and executive director of Run for Something, which recruits liberal candidates for down-ballot races such as state legislatures and local offices, said the new presidential campaign donors coming into the system are theoretically good news for all the less-prominent Democratic candidates raising money — she said donors who have given before are most likely to give again.

But to tap them, she said, candidates running for lower-wattage offices must break through the endless news about the presidential election.

“The attention economy,” Litman said, “is limited.”

I’m the Salvi anon from earlier. 

Ok… so boom. What I meant in the first sentence of my message was not meant to be a blanket statement for aalllllll Warren supporters, but a majority will move to Biden because a majority of her people are not part of the working class or progressive group. I liken that statement to when people say “Men are trash”, which when said we obviously don’t mean every single man on this earth. So if it doesn’t apply to you, don’t trip about it.

About the white supremacy part, I never meant to phrase it as you personally are saying “Niggers for Whities 2020!1!!”, but I meant it as the presidential position itself, no matter that candidate and their stances, is an imperialist position that does so much harm. As much as people want to say “Yeah! My vote matters!” at the end of it, it really doesn’t. We really DON’T have a two party system if we’re keepin’ it a buck. Real change comes from revolutions, not figuring who America’s Next Top Settler is. You look at the 50-70s and all of those revolutionaries who were murdered and made out to be crazies in the media, that’s exactly what’s continuing to happen now.

I know you were being 100% sarcastic when you said MSM is “toxic” to Bernie, but I think it’s actually correct. I don’t agree with using the word toxic to describe the situation, but the media definitely strategically propagandizes his tiny tiny threat to capitalism. MSM will never have the backs of radicals because they are a threat. Sanders himself isn’t as progressive as people make him out to be. He honestly represents the last “peaceful” option to US imperialism/capitalism. I do agree with you that he’s chicken shit for not running as an Independent, maybe his intention this whole time was to break up the Democratic party from within? I don’t like Bernard and some of his supporters can absolutely kiss my ass with the way they started talkin’ about Black people when the South voted for Biden. Out here basically saying Black people are low educated and Bernie and Bernie ONLY can fix their issues. But what I’m trying to get at here is that we should see beyond/question what is being told within the MSM because a lot of them aren’t agenda free.

As a Black/Indigenous person, some of the things that I’ve went through in life had unintentionally and drastically changed my viewpoints on things and I see that for a lot of others, it’s not something they’ve had to deal with because they’ve (unintentionally) been on the winning side. i.e. just literally living in America. 

You may or may not still think this is headassery personified, but I’d just like you to keep an open mind about these things and explore some of these ideas to a greater extent. Thanks for reading XX.

sorry i didn’t respond to this sooner! i think we’re on the same page about almost everything you said-- and i appreciate you offering your perspective especially when coming from different background. i think there are a reasonable majority of americans who do desire change, but again the question comes down to how much and when? and, like you said, the changes that you desire are likely influenced by direct experience. i would wager that there are a significant amount of people who think our current two party system is pretty ineffective, but at the same time, i think it would be harder to get these people to agree on a complete upheaval of the current system because of the potential for temporary chaos and because you probably won’t be able to get the people to agree on one uniform way it should be done. i reaaaaally could not imagine a situation where a dramatic revolution would happen, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t impossible. however, the barrier of getting enough people to agree to such an idea is... huge.  i’ll give credit to sanders for being pretty consistent with his platform against capitalism and consequent income equality, but while some people find it admirable, others find it to be stubborn and display a lack of desire to compromise. now, mind you, i’m not saying he has to, but i think a successful revolution would require significant support and he just doesn’t have that. there’s something called the hostile media effect that’s honestly quite interesting-- and i think it might be a contributer to some of the “MSM” theories we’re seeing especially around election time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_media_effect . the main issue with the argument that the media is against sanders is that prior to sc he was the favorite, and the reports reflected that. a few months ago biden was considered dead in the water and there was very little positive coverage about his campaign. the odds of winning have shifted and thus the reports have shifted. obviously there are certain websites and news outlets that lean more “left or right” than others (and i think there’s a website for that somewhere), but MSM isn’t the reason why black voters don’t fuck with bernie and you and i both know that. also with the MSM bias argument, it implies that voters are too ignorant or guillible to come to their own conclusions (and i’d argue that some people definitely are influenced, but that’s neither here nor there). but there are a few issues with that-- is it truly realistic to say that everyone who votes against bernie are only doing it because MSM told them to and that everyone who voted for bernie have some level of intelligence that puts them above that? i’d say no. it would also bring up the question as to why bernie wasn’t on tract for an absolute blowout while he was winning if MSM has such a significant influence, especially when reporting on who’s in the lead? i fully agree with you that all sources should be questioned, but i don’t think that there’s a significant enough MSM-mediated attack on sanders that explains away his shortcomings in polling. i just want to reiterate that i don’t disagree that there is bias in all media platforms, but i do think the mass perpetuation of this idea by that Bro cohort to justify his losses is dangerous because it’s a major talking point used by the people who are saying w their whole chest that they won’t vote against trump. just as a last point-- i have to disagree with you on the statement about the warren supporters who moved to biden doing so because they aren’t progressive nor working class. i think that a recent poll showed a slight edge in supporters moving to biden vs sanders, but there are also a significant amount who are still voting for warren herself in their primaries. regardless, there seems to be a common idea that bernie is the paradigm of the working class and the progressive movement, and because of this idea, anyone who doesn’t move to support him must not belong to those two groups. if we got rid of the candidates themselves, their histories, and their supporters, i would be more inclined to say that you’re onto something. but, in a weird way, it can almost be countered by those who vehemently support bernie. these people want change and they consider themselves progressive. sanders and warren ran extremely similar platforms. if all progressives, because they identify as such, should support whoever the most viable progressive candidate is based solely on principle, why didn’t that subset of bernie’s supporters switch to warren when she was ahead? bottom line is that there is no single right path to progressive change. if two people were told to run north, they’re both going to head north, but while it’s unlikely that they’ll take the same path, they’ll end up in the same general area of “north”. is it fair to say that person 2 didn’t actually go north because they didn’t take the same exact path as person 1? i don’t personally think so.