brandondonnelly
Brandon G. Donnelly
I'm an architect-trained and tech-obsessed real estate developer based in Toronto. This is my blog for city builders. Join over 14,000 followers and subscribers. Daily email at 6AM eastern.
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Moved to WordPress
Hi friends. This Tumblr is no longer being updated. I moved over to WordPress. You can now find me, here.
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Change, somewhere else
I went snowboarding today. As always it was a lot of fun. If only Toronto had mountains.
Here is a Canadian video about snowboarding from 1985 that, I think, does an excellent job demonstrating how resistant to change we humans can sometimes be.
The video sure sounds silly today, but it probably didn’t in 1985. It aired on the CBC.
I am writing this post on my iPad and there doesn’t appear to be a way to embed the video. The Tumblr app isn’t great. So all you’re getting today is a link.
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Cost-plus pricing
Today, Urbanation released its Q4-2018 market highlights report for the Greater Toronto Area.
The general media will pick up these numbers and tell you that there’s been a precipitous decline in the number of new condominium sales. But the reality is that 20,028 units were sold in 2018, which is actually in-line with 10-year averages for this region. 2017 was a particularly frenetic, and unsustainable, year.
The average pre-construction sold price for a new condominium in the former City of Toronto (the core) was $1,117 psf last year, and $921 psf across the broader region. These numbers represent significant double digit increases from the year prior. But again, what I don’t think many people appreciate is that the cost environment has also changed dramatically over the last few years.
Construction costs are way up, as are development charges and a myriad of other pro forma line items. The above numbers are simply a result of cost-plus pricing. Here’s where costs are at and here’s where we need to be to make the project feasible. Margins haven’t increased; in fact, they’ve probably been squeezed for many developers.
I think this is an important topic that deserves more transparency and visibility. So I’m hoping to work with a developer friend of mine and publish something more substantial in the coming months.
#cost-plus pricing#urbanation#condo#developers#developer#development#real estate development#real estate#toronto#greater toronto area#new construction#new home sales#urbanism#cities#construction#apartment
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A beautiful destination: Rio de Janeiro
Below is a breathtaking video of Rio de Janeiro by Beautiful Destinations. If you haven’t heard of them before, they run a great YouTube channel profiling places and experiences from around the world. I think they also post a new video every week. If you can’t see the video of Rio below, click here.
youtube
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The paperless developer
I’m working on integrating an iPad (back) into my workflow as a developer.
I used an iPad 2 (c. 2011) while I was completing my MBA. I mainly used it for taking notes and saving money on hard copy textbooks. But after it got old and painfully slow, I stopped using it. It was a nice to have, but I never felt the need to replace it with a newer model.
Lately, however, I have been hearing from a number of developer friends that an iPad -- along with an Apple Pencil -- is simply invaluable for people, like me, who are constantly reviewing, signing and marking up documents and drawings. So I have decided to reevaluate how I work.
I am still getting set up, but I can already see how it is going to dramatically streamline some of my workflows (for one, there will be much less scanning).
I am currently on the hunt for apps that can help with floor plan designs -- something that will work like trace paper but with dimensions. We spend a lot time working to make these perfect. It’s the core product, after all. So far I’ve found TracePro by morpholio. Maybe you all know of something better.
Outside of the office, I also think I’ll be able to replace my laptop when it comes to writing this blog and editing photos on the road. There’s Lightroom for iPad and all you need is an SD card reader to download all of your photos to it. (Too bad it isn’t possible to connect my Fujifilm directly.)
I’ll let you know how all of this goes. But if any of you have already gone paperless, please feel free to leave your tips in the comment section below.
Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash
#ipad pro#real estate developer#architecture#design#construction#workflow#productivity#ipad#apple pencil#apple ipad#tablet#floor plan design#trace paper#sketching#drawing
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New York City’s $35 billion nightlife economy
The Mayor’s Office of Media and Entertainment in New York City recently commissioned this report on the city’s nightlife economy. The study was completed by Econsult Solutions, the North Highland Company, and Urbane Development. (Full disclosure: I was a teaching assistant for the President of Econsult while at Penn.)
Here’s what they found:
The total economic impact of this industry is the sum of its direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts, as well as the ancillary spending impacts that are adjacent to nightlife activity. In 2016 (the most recent year where standardized datasets were available), the nightlife industry supported 299,000 jobs with $13.1 billion in employee compensation and $35.1 billion in economic output. This economic impact also yielded $697 million in tax revenue for New York City.
They also found that, between 2011 and 2016, the nightlife industry has outpaced the city’s overall economy. Nightlife establishments grew by a 2% annual growth rate. Jobs in the nightlife industry grew by a 5% annual growth rate. And nightlife wages have been rising by 8% annually -- about double the average for the city.
I am a firm believer in the value of the nighttime economy. So I’m happy to see more people paying attention to it as of late. For the full report, click here.
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash
#nightlife#nighttime#nighttime economy#nightlife economy#new york city#econsult solutions#penn#north highland company#urbane development#urbanism#cities#land and development
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“Alexa, play some Miles Davis”
Over the weekend I received an Amazon Echo as a gift. I set it up in my kitchen on Sunday morning and had it playing music and telling me the weather in no time. I also setup a couple of “routines” so that when I say things, such as “good morning”, it cycles through the weather, the news, and some other things that I might find valuable at the start of my day. It is pretty neat.
The truth is that I have actually been avoiding voice assistants since they were first launched. As much as I consider myself an early adopter, I have been generally uncomfortable with the idea that my voice commands, and perhaps other things, are being stored by Amazon. There are ways to delete that history, but I am not yet sure if that’s enough for me. Am I going to be served an ad because of something I mention in my own home?
Now that I’ve been trying it out for a few days, I will say that it is incredibly useful. I immediately see the value. I use it to control some of my lights. I ask it things when I’m cooking and my hands are dirty: “Alexa, how badly are the Raptors going to beat the Bucks this Thursday?” And I use it to play music. But is all of this a fair exchange for the creepy feeling that they create?
I’m not sure. But it certainly feels like the future.
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Spaces for the Instagram age
In 2017, the New York Times Style Magazine ran a piece on Harry Nuriev -- and his design firm Crosby Studios -- titled: The man designing spaces for the Instagram age.
Since then, Harry and his firm have been in Time Magazine, have had a solo show at Design Miami, and have been named to the Architectural Digest 100, among many other things.
There has obviously been a lot of talk over the last few years about the impact that Instagram is having on physical spaces and design #IRL (in real life).
Some, or perhaps many, worry that it is having a “homogenizing effect on design.” Everyone is following a kind of global minimalism that looks good on social, but is maybe getting a bit monotonous.
There’s no question that online is having an impact on how we design offline. But I am far less fussed about it than most.
Architecture, design, and art have always reflected the cultural milieu at the time, and it just so happens that we are living through a period where the internet is transforming so much of what we know.
It is always important to question what is going on. But I think Crosby Studios is doing some really great work.
#crosby studio#architecture#design#art#harry nuriev#instagram age#design miami#moscow#new york city#toronto#architectural digest 100#ad100#architectural digest#time magazine#miami#social media#instagram
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Do Canadians embrace winter?
Curbed published an article this week called, Why U.S. cities should stop whining and embrace winter. It is about Canada and how we allegedly embrace winter, which is arguably true, except I think there’s still a healthy dose of whining combined with trips to the south.
I went ice skating a few weeks ago along the waterfront here in Toronto. It was a cold night and we debated whether we should skate or do something indoors involving Niagara’s finest red wines. We opted for skating and weren’t cold at all. It was great.
I was reminded of this when I read the line: “The purpose is to get you skating. If you are skating, you are warm.” It is a good reminder that one of the keys to a successful winter space is physical activity. That and hot tubs.
Photo by Joseph Barrientos on Unsplash
#curbed#us cities#canadian cities#winter spaces#winter activities#embracing winter#toronto#edmonton#winnipeg#ice skating#wine#hot tubs
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A new typology of cities
Earlier in the week, my friend Rodney Wilts of Theia Partners sent me a JLL report called, World Cities: Mapping the Pathways to Success. I am admittedly only getting around to it now.
The report proposes a new typology of world cities that looks like this:
It is based on 10 overall categories of cities, grouped into 4 main buckets. The first bucket is “Established World Cities”, within which there is the “Big Seven”, and then the “Contenders.”
The Real Estate Highlights that accompany each category of city is a good place to start if you’re looking to do a quick scan of the report.
Here’s a taste:
One-quarter of all capital invested in commercial real estate globally currently lands in one of the “Big Seven” cities. And London and New York are easily at the top.
Cities that recently graduated from “New World City” status -- namely Toronto, San Francisco, Sydney, and Amsterdam -- are all struggling to address housing and infrastructure deficits.
“Lifestyle” cities -- such as Vancouver, Auckland, and Oslo -- are some of the most active investment markets. Biggest rental growth for prime offices (since 2000) in the “New World Cities” category.
Click here for the full report.
#jll#theia partners#world cities#a new typology of cities#city typology#vancouver#auckland#oslo#new world cities#toronto#san francisco#sydney#amsterdam
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Q4-2018 high-density land sales in Toronto
Bullpen Research & Consulting and Batory Management just published their Q4-2018 High-Rise Land Insights Report for the Greater Toronto Area.
Above is a mapping of the estimated per square foot buildable prices for the land that traded hands specifically in Toronto last quarter.
The average is $178 per square foot. And the projected average sale (condo) price is $1,097 psf. That sounds right. You basically need that kind of end pricing to make the math work with today’s costs.
Across the GTA, the average spread between zoned and unzoned land was almost $40 psf. $159 psf versus $120 psf, respectively.
A full copy of the report can be downloaded here.
#land sales#development#land transactions#real estate#bullpen consulting#batory management#toronto#greater toronto area#condo pricing#condos
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Phoenix claws
If you’ve ever watched a documentary on food, you’ve probably seen the terrible ways in which chickens are raised and farmed. If you have the means, free-range and organic is the way to go. But I appreciate that some -- most according to this Economist article -- must opt for whatever is cheaper.
The Economist deals with the unfortunate side of the chicken industry, but it also talks about how chicken became the rich world’s most popular and widely traded meat. Since 1990, beef and pork consumption has remained roughly the same in OECD countries; whereas chicken consumption has increased by some 70%.
Also interesting are the regional preferences when it comes to the parts of the chicken. Here is an excerpt from the article (and yes, I prefer white meat):
Though Westerners prefer lean, white meat; many in Asia and Africa prefer dark meat, which includes legs and thighs. These preferences are reflected in local prices: in America breasts are 88% more expensive than legs; in Indonesia they are 12% cheaper. Differences in the price of chicken feet are even starker. The thought of eating talons is abhorrent to many Westerners, but they often feature in Cantonese recipes. China now imports 300,000 tonnes of “phoenix claws” every year.
I reckon that a lot of this popularity has to do with chicken’s reputation as a healthy meat. That is certainly the primary motivation for me. Though I do get thrown off when I see the size of chickens on antibiotics. The Dutch have a word for this: plofkip. It translates to “exploded chicken.”
I realize that this post has little to do with cities, other than the inference that Hong Kong is likely a major buyer of feet. But if you’re at all curious about the stuff you put inside your body -- I clearly am -- here’s the full article.
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Largest airport in the world
I just finished scrolling through these photos (from the Atlantic) of Beijing Daxing International Airport, which is currently under construction about 46 kilometers south of Tiananmen Square. The first phase is expected to open in the second half of this year. It will be about 7.5 million square feet and be capable of handling some 72 million passengers per year (100 million at full build out).
Supposedly all of this will make it the largest airport in the world, which is pretty impressive considering Beijing Capital International Airport is already one of the busiest in the world. It too moves around 100 million passengers a year and is likely to overtake Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta in the near term (if it hasn’t already).
But in addition to being the biggest and baddest, two other things stand out to me about the design of Beijing Daxing.
The first is its starfish design. This was done to minimize the amount of walking between security and gate. Check-ins happen in the middle of the starfish and then the most you’ll ever have to walk is 600m (to end of one of the limbs). That’s in line with what most people would consider a reasonable urban transit radius.
The second is the fact that the check-in area provides an aerial view of the gates below. You can see this layering in the photos from the Atlantic. This was done to create a visual connection between passengers and their family and friends. Usually, the goodbye waves happen at or before security. Here you get a bit more time. (Will security be an issue?)
For the full set of photos from the Atlantic, click here. I have a thing for airports, so I thought this was a great set.
Image: Wang Mingzhu via the Atlantic
#airport#beijing#the atlantic#construction#china#beijing capital airport#beijing daxing#architecture#design#photo essay#photos
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Archival street life footage
Guy Jones is a videographer who specializes in archival footage, or at least that is what his YouTube account suggests. He edits old videos and makes them more watchable by doing things like adding sound and slowing them down to a natural rate.
(Older films often appear sped up because they were recorded at less than 24 frames per second and then later played at 24 or more frames per second.)
I’ve blogged about one of his videos before. This one of New York City in 1911. But he has so many other fascinating films on his channel -- including a frozen Ottawa from 1942 -- that I figured I would share it in its entirety today.
For the city builders in the room, here are some street life videos of Paris in la Belle Époque (1896-1900), New York City in 1927, and London in 1967. Among other things, it is fascinating to see how quickly the car crept its way into our cities.
The video of Paris is all horses and moving walkways. The video of New York City (1927) is all cars. And if you look at the other video of New York from 1911, you’ll see a city in the midst of that transition.
#guy jones#old videos#archival footage#old footage#cities#ottawa#new york city#london#paris#video#youtube
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Non-load-bearing curtain wall
Liz Diller of Diller Scofidio + Renfro was recently asked by designboom about how her firm approached the design of Fifteen Hudson Yards (the first residential tower in New York’s Hudson Yards).
The firm had never designed a high-rise before. So while their typical approach would be to analyze program, here they were heavily informed by the views -- both in and out from the site -- as you move up the tower.
The 88 storey tower transitions between two footprints. The base matches the street grid of the city, but as you move up the tower it transforms into a cloverleaf -- allowing panoramic views of the city.
It is a somewhat similar approach to what has been proposed by Studio Gang for One Delisle. Except for the transformation here is to a multifaceted cylindrical shape (a hexadecagon is what has been drawn).
From the late 19th century when Chicago began to pioneer the modern skyscraper, architects and engineers have been thinking about how you treat a tall building as you move from top to bottom.
Chicago architect Louis Sullivan responded to this challenge with his tripartite approach to design. He believed that tall buildings should be characterized by three main divisions: a base (bottom), a shaft (middle), and a cap (top).
The technological innovation that allowed this thinking to flourish was the non-load-bearing curtain wall. Once the exterior walls of a tower no longer supported the actual building, architects then had the freedom to really experiment.
This remains true to this day, but we no longer need to confine ourselves to only three parts. New technologies now allow for more.
Today we have parametric modeling and other design tools that allow us to create new geometries and transitions; forms that would have been pretty complex to draw up in the past.
In the case of Fifteen Hudson Yards, every floor plate from 20 something and up is slightly different. I wonder what Louis would think of this.
Image: Timothy Schenck via designboom
#high rise#tower#tall building#fifteen hudson yards#louis sullivan#new york city#chicago#toronto#technology#curtain wall#non-load bearing#urbanism#cities#skyscraper#tech#designboom#timothy schenck
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A mapping of development potential in Toronto
I first met Monika Jaroszonek in 2017, right before she started RATIO.CITY. Since then she has developed some pretty incredible tools for the city building space.
Yesterday the company published this interactive visualization looking at development potential across the City of Toronto. The mapping looks for the following:
Land that has a Mixed Use, Apartment or Regeneration designation in the City of Toronto’s Official Plan
Land that is located within a Provincially designated Urban Growth Centre
Land that is located within 500m of a Major Transit Station
The tool then ranks each development site -- AAA, AA, A -- according to how many of the above criteria it meets.
It also flags land that it refers to as “Missed Opportunity.” These are lands located within 500m of a Major Transit Station, but that are designated as Neighbourhoods (considered stable) or Employment (whole other discussion).
Based on this filter, about 5.6% of the City’s land is a “Missed Opportunity” and about 1.2% is AAA.
When you look at the visualization, that is one of the first things you will probably notice; a lot of our transit infrastructure is currently underutilized as a result of land use policies.
Image: RATIO.CITY
#ratio.city#mapping#visualization#zoning#land use policy#toronto#official plan#zoning bylaw#major transit station#urban growth#mixed use#regeneration#employment lands
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Unusual ski-spots around the world
“Like so many sports that humans do,” he [Kari Medig] says, “skiing can seem absurd: sliding over the miracle of frozen water, slipping down steep mountains wearing layers of crazy clothes—it really is a strange thing to do.”
I love skiing (well snowboarding to be exact). And I love photography. So here is an interesting photo essay from FvF about “the unexpected diversity of the ski community.” It features the work of Canadian photographer Kari Medig.
Kari’s career is centered around photographing unusual ski-spots around the world. He has discovered that every locale has its own unique subculture. In some places, skiing is about status. But in other places, people depend on it for their livelihood.
Eventually Kari hopes to turn this lifelong ski project into a book. I sure hope he does that. I bet it would do very well on Kickstarter. (On a largely unrelated note, his photos of Rio de Janeiro are at least 100x better than mine.)
Image: Kari Medig
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