the ratgrinders' potential levels
cannot believe i was right about the xp reqs. the bad kids & the seven get 'special treatment' (milestone leveling and saving the world), while others have to work with xp. which tells you a lot about why people fled during prompocalypse.
ok getting into the algebra now: the rat grinders have gone into the far haven woods every day for the last two years, for 3 hours after school, and 9 hours/day on weekends. presumably they keep this up during the summer.
they have supposedly defeated 80,000 or more of three types of creatures: rats, spiders, and twig blights. there are some variations to what these could be, so here's a list of what this could encompass, assuming the ratgrinders are not facing creatures over CR 1.
giant rat: CR 1/8, 25 XP
swarm of rats: CR 1/4, 50 XP
giant wolf spider: CR 1/8, 25 XP
swarm of spiders: CR 1/2, 100 XP
giant flying spider: CR 1, 200 XP
giant spider: CR 1, 200 XP
ice spider: CR 1, 200 XP
twig blight: CR 1/8, 25 XP
needle blight: CR 1/4, 50 XP
thorn slinger: CR 1/2, 100 XP
vine blight: CR 1/2, 100 XP
razorvine blight: CR 1, 200 XP
thorny: CR 1: 200 XP
the full list is a little difficult to do calculations on, so let's condense it. assume a quarter of the 80000 creatures were CR 1/8, a quarter were CR 1/4, so on and so forth.
how much xp would they earn? how much would they level for the amount they ground? grinded? for?
critical assumption here: in the games i've played, we've always done milestone or zeroed out xp with each level, i.e. after earning 300 xp to get to level 2, you have to earn 900 xp to get to level 3, not 600. this analysis assumes that you have to earn the next levels xp reqs on top of your current total. i'm including the xp chart here to clarify:
level 1: 0 XP, +2, total 0 XP
level 2: 300 XP, +2, total 300 XP
level 3: 900 XP, +2, total 1200 XP
level 4: 2700 XP, +2, total 3900 XP
level 5: 6500 XP, +3, total 10400 XP
level 6: 14000 XP, +3, total 24400 XP
level 7: 23000 XP, +3, total 47400 XP
level 8: 34000 XP, +3, total 81400 XP
level 9: 48000 XP, +4, total 129400 XP
level 10: 64000 XP, +4, total 193400 XP
level 11: 85000 XP, +4, total 278400 XP
level 12: 100000 XP, +4, total 378400 XP
level 13: 120000 XP, +5, total 498400 XP
level 14: 140000 XP, +5, total 638400 XP
level 15: 165000 XP, +5, total 803400 XP
level 16: 195000 XP, +5, total 998400 XP
level 17: 225000 XP, +6, total 1223400 XP
level 18: 265000 XP, +6, total 1488400 XP
level 19: 305000 XP, +6, total 1793400 XP
level 20: 355000 XP, +6, total 2148400 XP
if we went cumulatively, based on the number of creatures the bad kids have defeated, they'd be getting up there in xp. we know they've had opportunities to defeat creatures outside of the quests that we've seen, given the oneshots. thus, i'm going with the second explanation, because otherwise the ratgrinders would be 19th level, and i don't think they are, because it would make any pvp setups super unbalanced, which are neither fun to play nor watch. this puts them on a little more even ground and emphasizes the amount of work it takes to xp grind to level against milestone leveling.
for the CR 1/8s: assuming roughly 20,000 creatures, they'd get 25 XP per, which means 500,000 xp. that's cumulatively enough to get to level 13, on just those creatures. divided 6 ways, assuming the ratgrinders have 6 members, it's 83,333.33, which is enough to get you to 10th level cumulatively and 8th non cumulatively.
this scales up to the 1/4s, 1/2s and the 1s since the xp gains double for each challenge rating rather than plateauing as they do at higher levels.
for the CR 1/4s: 1,000,000 xp. that's cumulatively enough to get to level 16 on just those creatures. divided 6 ways, assuming the ratgrinders have 6 members, it's 166,666.66, which is enough to get you to 15th level cumulatively and 9th non cumulatively.
for the CR 1/2s: 2,000,000 xp. divided 6 ways, assuming the ratgrinders have 6 members, it's 333,333.33, which is enough to get you to 19th level cumulatively, and 11th level non cumulatively.
and for the 1s, 4,000,000 xp. well over what you'd need to get to level 20, on just the CR 1s. divided 6 ways, assuming the ratgrinders have 6 members, it's 666,666.66, which is well over 20th level cumulatively, and 14th level non cumulatively.
using this estimate and adding all of this up, each member of the ratgrinders would have gathered enough xp to be level 20 cumulatively, and level 17 non cumulatively.
obviously the actual numbers would scale differently; initially, they would likely have to tackle these creatures as a party, but over time would take care of them individually. this is a bunch of kids doing the intro to class assignment for every assignment for two years straight.
level 20 seems extreme for the aguefort adventuring academy; let's scale it down a bit. the creatures specifically mentioned are probably giant rats, giant wolf spiders, and twig blights, based on the descriptions from jawbone.
all of these are CR 1/8, or 25 XP each. 80000 would give an xp total of 2,000,000, which would put each of the ratgrinders at around 11th level, a little higher level than the bad kids at the moment. however, since their fighting prowess scaled up, and they're probably going out in elmville and actively hindering the bad kids in some way, that level is very likely to increase.
what we saw in the episode
now the sticking point is mary ann rolling a 35. we know she got some kind of transmutation buff. a little tricky wording from brennan; fabian had enhance ability on, which is a transmutation spell. he did not say it was enhance ability.
mary ann is a barbarian, so she already gets advantage on athletics if she's raging, which i assume she was. the buff probably wouldn't be something that grants advantage.
assuming the lower estimate of 11th level, mary ann would get a +4 proficiency bonus, and i'm assuming she has 20 in strength, so +5 to her strength based skills, for a total of +9. at the high estimate of level 17, she would have a +6 to her proficiency bonus, which would give her a total of +11 to athletics. this is still not high enough to get a 35, even on a nat 20, which brennan would have declared if he had rolled one. she could conceivably accomplish this with the brawny feat, which allows for expertise in the athletics skill, which would give her a +17, meaning she could hit a 35 on a 18.
or, the buff was something like skill empowerment, which is a 5th level transmutation spell that gives the target expertise in a skill that they already have proficiency in. this spell is available to bards and wizards, among other classes, both of which we presume are in the ratgrinders. ruben could have cast skill empowerment on mary ann and given her bardic inspiration (lower estimate: d10, higher estimate: d12), both of which would have enabled that 35.
judging by the implication that she could not accomplish that feat without some kind of buff, i'm going with the latter explanation.
anyway i did too much math for this to not go in the stats series, or the school series. so this will be added to the spreadsheet later.
i hope this is useful.
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Okay so I’m a physical conspiracy board away from turning into Riz, but there’s one thing I cannot get out of my mind and that’s
The Rogue teacher found Kipperlilly. Not the other way around. The Rogue teacher found Kipperlilly.
Which means that the Ratgrinders have at least one teacher in their corner (likely two if Ruben and Henry Hopclap don’t share a name by pure fucking coincidence). What does the Rogue teacher have against the Bad Kids?? Have we met them already?? Are there more teachers with taking issue with them? I actually don’t think Porter, he’s just a dick. But like, somebody wants the Ratgrinders to get revenge for something.
What I think is likely:
- Lucy Frostblade died at the end of Junior Year due to something related to the Bad Kids shenanigans.
- This turned Ruben emo -> is there a clue hidden in his song? “In space no one can feel you dying” - is this what happened to Lucy?? Did Lucy go to Astral Space, either to look for YES! or for another god and did she die there? Did she die because of Cassandra? Did she die because of YES!? Did she die because of the Night Yorb?
- side note, I am throwing it out there, I think the Rogue teacher is that little aviator goblin - I don’t trust him, also Brennan pointedly said that kid was like Riz in Freshman year, only into aviation instead of detective stuff, and with how the Ratgrinders are so clearly mirrored after the Bad Kids I am suspicious. Bonus points if Ecaf is somehow involved, being an actual mirror. (Oh god I’m this close to writing an essay about how Brennan is holding up a mirror to all of his PCs this season and what this symbolizes in terms of growing up and such)
- Anyway, Lucy’s death must have something to do with the Bad Kids. Why else would they specifically request a Cleric of Helio for their party, if not to mess with Kristen?
This list has gotten away from me - anyway I cannot wait to find out what the Ratgrinders High Five Heroes did for their Sophomore Year project. I’ve got a feeling it’s really important
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