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thevoidscreamer · 7 months

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Stop Talking About "Proportional Responses" and Read This.

Okay. So as an Intelligence Studies student who has had a longstanding special interest in the Middle East, I feel a little bit compelled to talk about the Israel-Hamas-Palestine situation going on right now.

First off, there are tons of great resources to learn about the history that pertains to this conflict. I highly recommend the book The Contemporary Middle East, 3rd edition, for a good start, but for those of you who don't learn well through reading, Warographics has a great short video that can help you get the bare minimum bit of context necessary to understanding what's going on.

Secondly, it is paramount to note that there are no good guys in this situation aside from the civilians and non-combatants whose lives are being horrendously upended (again) by this conflict. Anyone who tells you that either Israel or Hamas is the sole hero or the sole victim in this story is not looking at the full picture. The world is made up of shades of gray, and there is no truthful black-and-white view of this situation. I caution anyone against listening to those who make statements that glorify the actions of either party or who refuse to accept that both have committed atrocities over the past decades preceding this particular event and the days containing it or who equivocate Palestine with Hamas.

Third, my personal bias is against the use of egregious violence, shock tactics, and ethnic cleansing in any efforts to effect lasting change. I am also against the apartheid state model, the definition of which can be found at this hyperlink. I stand against any form of extremism and terrorism, be they enacted on behalf of an individual, a group, or a recognized state. If you are a proponent of these things, you will not like my analysis. I also assert that LOAC should be staunchly adhered to, not just in letter but also in intent. If you think that exceptions to LOAC should be made to religious or ethnic groups, you will not like my analysis. I do not believe in making exceptions for "divinely inspired" behaviors and I harshly disagree with the assertion of some Christians that Israel reserves the right to reign unfettered damage on any and all others because they are the "apple of G-d's eye."

Fourth, I don't believe in the principle of "reciprocal action" for nations that are actually seeking peace. Responses to terrorist behavior should not be met with equal terrorist behavior. War should not be an avenging action, it should be an procedure that seeks to end the conflict with as little collateral damage as possible. Counter to what most US Americans seem to believe, war is not just bombs and guns. It is ISR, agreements, support, appeals to other countries for aid, international propaganda campaigns, cybersecurity efforts, counterintelligence, economic shifts, and a lot more, all of which has become tremendously more accessible (and impactful) thanks to technological advances. Throwing bodies at the problem and throwing bombs at the bodies until enough people die that it slows down or stops is not our only option anymore, and it hasn't been for a long time.

Finally, I strongly believe in the responsibility that journalists and reporters bear to inform their viewers. Does the average US American news viewer understand Israel's defense capabilities? No, and I wouldn't expect them to. But it's helpful for them to know, when forming their opinions about the conflict. Instead of only showing the tragic final moments of Palestinian and Israeli civilians on loop for the entire 24 hour news cycle, why not dedicate some of that time to discussing the armaments and capabilities of each side of the conflict? What missiles are being used in the air strikes? What about the aircraft? What is the method that the IDF is using to decide where to strike? It's not sensational, but it is important.

Okay so now that that's all out of the way, let's talk specifically about Israel's response to Hamas' coordinated attack on its citizens on 7 October 2023.

My thesis statement here is this: Israel has the knowledge and means to locate and deal with the most important/influential members of Hamas who reside in Gaza while sustaining minimal collateral damage to buildings and civilians, but they have chosen instead to inflict a moderate amount of collateral damage -- more than they have in the past, but less than they are capable of. To what end? That is yet to be seen, though inferences can be made.

In my opinion, this is reckless and will only serve to stoke the flames of anti-Israel sentiment in Palestine and around the world while appealing to the radicalized far-right fringe groups Netanyahu is beholden to, as well as radical Christians, Messianics, and Zionists in the United States. It will not result in peace and will further divide the Middle East and the US along archaic religious extremist lines.

The following post will provide the puzzle pieces that support this hypothesis, and bring them all together in a conclusion.

Let's start by talking about Israel's intelligence apparatus, Mossad. Background on Mossad here for those who need it.

Why is everyone upset with Mossad? Mossad is actually one of the most effective intelligence agencies in the world. The fact that they didn't catch this before it happened comes as such a shock to me as an analyst-in-training that I actually think they may have allowed it to happen in order to enact a war on Palestine. That's simply my impression, but we have yet to see evidence of why this attack was not caught and stopped. The IDF's actions seem to back my hypothesis, but we won't know for sure until the dust settles years from now. At this point, I don't feel speculation is particularly useful.

What benefit does Mossad have to offer now that the conflict has popped off? Hamas is a large organization, estimated at around 20,000 individuals. However, Mossad likely has profiles (and possibly even patterns-of-life) on the high ranking and influential members of Hamas who reside in Gaza. This is because Mossad is a highly adept, globally notable intelligence service, and Hamas is a well-known enemy. Even if Mossad does not have profiles on those individuals, it would only take some patience on Israel's part to locate and identify them and their patterns of life, especially given Israel’s UAV capabilities.

What are Israel's UAV capabilities?

Israel's use of UAVs is not publicly acknowledged, but it is well known that they not only use but manufacture three specific UAVs. In fact, they are one of the world's foremost suppliers of UAV technology.

Of these, the Hermes 900 and Heron TP most resemble the MQ-9 Reaper. Why is this important? Comparison. The MQ-9 Reaper has hella capabilities I won't go into here, but follow this link if you'd like to learn more about the technological marvel that is General Atomics' MQ-9B. What you need to know for this comparison is that the MQ-9 can surveil and destroy a target without that target even knowing the MQ-9 was there. It's stealthy and incredibly precise. The US DOD version has a suite of sensors for all kinds of tasks, and it can carry a decent payload, which is addressed in the next bullet.

The missile we'll be talking about today is the November-class Hellfire. These 104 lb missiles have a unique capability. They are often called a zero-collateral weapon, because they eliminate their target(s) and nothing else. The short of how this missile works is by pressurizing an enclosed space and liquifying what's inside it. This missile does not explode because it has no explosive material. That means no shrapnel, no molten metal, nothing. And, its effects are confined to the four walls, floor, and ceiling of the room it "detonates" in. People in the next room? Unharmed. And it will not pressurize an open space. Which means, by using the laser guided air-to-ground missile system mounted on an aircraft like the MQ-9 or similar, this missile can be deployed to hit one target in an open space and impact no one else. Once deployed, the missile will make impact with the target, destroying it via sheer velocity, bury itself in the ground, and detonate without harming any other people or structures.

So how would Israel get their hands on something like that?

Prior to the Hamas attacks, the Biden administration requested Israel receive $3.3 billion in foreign military financing for the upcoming fiscal year -- the same as the past three years. For comparison, $2.8 billion is going to Europe and Eurasia aid, with an additional $1 billion earmarked specifically for Ukraine. The DOD version of the MQ-9 Reaper costs about $32 million, and Hellfire missiles cost around $120,000 per, including costs for technical support and training -- and its many variants are compatible with multiple platforms, not just the MQ-9.

For context, the Hellfire missile was initially developed in the late 70's. Its newer iterations are much more elegant and efficient, but the point still stands that Israel has had access to the same technology for just as long as everyone else. So even if they were not receiving funding from the US, Israel likely already has figured out an equivalent tool.

Now that we know what the most effective, least damaging option is... what kinds of missiles is Israel using?

Right now, since explosives are still flying, we won't have that information. But we do have information about the last big barrage of missiles and bombs used by Israel on Gaza, back in 2021.

Gravity bombs (mark 82, 83, and 84) fitted with JDAM guidance kits (GBU-38, GBU-32, and GBU-31 respectively) giving the weapon the capability to hit a designated GPS coordinate. These are general purpose bombs built to penetrate concrete and then explode, spreading lethal shrapnel. Lethal area: 2,400 m2

2,000 lb GBU-31 (V)4/B (bunker-buster subvariant), used to level high-rise buildings in Gaza.

500 lb GBU-54 'laser-guided JDAM.'

Semi-active laser-guided Mikholit missile (ATGM). These small missiles can be carried by the smallest of the UAV, but are often deployed by helicopter.

"Spike" or Tammuz NLOS anti-tank missile, which in some models has a staggering range of 16 miles, features a built-in video feed, and can be controlled like a drone.

So... they don't seem to have a track record for using precision missiles that cause minimal collateral damage. Okay, well maybe they have a reason.

So where is Israel sending its explosives?

Gaza is the world's third most densely populated polity, with a population of over 2 million Palestinians -- 70% of those being refugees from other parts of Israel. Below are two maps. The first one shows the population density using dots to depict the general clustering of humans in Gaza. The second one shows the IDF airstrike locations. There is a citation in the image itself, but the hyperlinks in this paragraph take you to the same places. I will let you draw your own conclusions regarding the impact the bombs will have on the Gaza Strip populous, based on the impact locations and population clustering.

From here, it is important to address the considerations that go into what missile to use on a target.

There is generally a three-point system that helps determine which munition is necessitated by which mission and which targets.

Value of target

Missile capability

Estimated collateral deaths

These are all important because of the Law of Armed Combat, sometimes called the International Humanitarian Law, or the Law of War, which is backed by both the Geneva Convention and the Hague Convention. The intention of the LOAC is to minimize collateral damage and unnecessary death, especially to that of non-combatants. And yes, it does apply to "non-international conflict" i.e. engaging in conflict with non-State armed groups -- but it offers a unique exception. "Leaders of non-State armed groups are also subject to attack on the same basis as other members of the group." See subsection 5.7.4 of the DOD Law of War Manual. But that's a rabbit hole for a different day.

How effective was the 2021 bombardment on damaging or destroying Hamas assets?

This is important because the current bombardment is on trajectory to be much more deadly and costly than any IDF bombardment in the past. If the goal of Israel's bombardments is to stop Hamas, then the damage to Hamas should outweigh the damage to the civil Palestinian population. When reading these records, remember that Hamas has controversial political control over Gaza -- many Palestinians do not want Hamas as their governing body, but Hamas enacts legal power there anyway.

Most of the boats and many of the personnel of Hamas' naval cammando force were destroyed

10 Hamas government buildings, including its Interior Ministry, were destroyed

11 military buildings, including one housing Hamas' cyber branch, were destroyed

Five banks that were allegedly linked to Hamas were destroyed

"Nearly 30" (yes, that's the quote) senior commanders and one rocket engineer expert were allegedly killed

The family homes of at least 15 Hamas leaders were destroyed, some including the families inside

Over 60 miles or roughly 20-25% of Hamas' estimated 250-310 mile "Metro," which is an underground tunnel system -- the demolished area included 15 cross-border strike tunnels

Let's compare that to the impact of those same strikes on Gazan infrastructure and non-combatants.

Gaza's only COVID testing and vaccination center was destroyed

Gaza's largest bookstore was destroyed

A critical desalinization plant was disabled

The sewer system was rendered unusable -- reportedly 50% of the water pipeline network was destroyed

53 school buildings were damaged

11 health centers and 6 hospitals were damaged

17,000 residential and commercial units were damaged, including 5 residential towers

An estimated 72,000 Palestinians were rendered homeless

800,000 Gazans lacked access to clean drinking water and were receiving 5 hours of electricity per day, down from 12

At least 243 Gazans were killed, including over 100 women and children

So how is this current conflict shaping up, just five days after it's begun?

Let's look only at total reported deaths so far, because the damage and bombings are still happening and it is not easy to project the impact of something like this.

Gaza: 680, plus 1500 militants reported found dead by Israel

Israel: 900

Hamas Leaders: 3

US: 11

Note: this data is from 10 October, because I could not find a reliable source for reported deaths more recently. However for the curious reader, of the many projected death counts available, I felt AlJazeera would be most accurate.

So what does this all mean?

The current scenario unfolding showcases Israel's prowess in defense and the capabilities they hold, with potential access to precision weapons that minimize collateral damage. However, their choice to utilize munitions that cause significant collateral harm raises pertinent questions about their objectives. Israel's historical actions, while crippling to some of Hamas's assets, have also disproportionately affected Palestinian civilians, disrupting their infrastructure and causing substantial loss of life. It's evident that conflict responses shouldn't be retaliatory actions but must aim for lasting peace.

Israel's approach to the conflict manifests a concerning disregard for the safety of Palestinian civilians residing in Gaza. The destruction of essential infrastructure in 2021, show a pattern of excessive force that suggests a stubbornness against employing more efficient, precise methods of eliminating targets. Instead, their recent actions in the 2023 conflict will inevitably lead to devastating collateral damage that affects non-combatants more than the intended targets. Moreover, these tactics will serve to further tarnish Israel's international image. The global community is increasingly conscious of human rights and the usefulness of discrimination in warfare. Israel’s actions, therefore, risk isolating them in the global theater and could potentially invite international sanctions or legal action, as well as continued aggression from Palestine and its sympathizers. These factors all combine to indicate a blatant disregard for Palestinian civilian lives and a lack of foresight in their strategic actions and international relations.

With technological advancements, nations no longer have to resort to conventional warfare tactics. As the current conflict unfolds, it becomes even more critical to highlight the importance of a balanced approach and the dire need for solutions that prioritize humanity over political or religious objectives. However, Israel and Hamas have both made their positions clear, and neither of those positions reflects the idea of regional security.

Tl;dr ... Israel could have chosen to do better, but they didn't. And that's not okay.

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Note about the author: I grew up in a radicalized far right evangelical household, and at least one of my parents is still radicalized. I did a brief foray into the radicalized far left side of US politics before settling into my current moderate position. As a white, atheist, transgender individual who has experienced homelessness and chronic illness, and who has been a victim of sex trafficking, but who now lives a stable and solidly middle class life with a bachelor's level education and a partner in the military, I recognize that my moderate political position is a privileged one.

I acknowledge that the unfortunate truth is that often the only option left to oppressed groups seeking change is violence, especially provided there is no substantial humanitarian intervention available to them. I believe that Israel's actions will further that sense of no-other-way-out for Palestinians, especially those not affiliated with Hamas.

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