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zvaigzdelasas · 4 months

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The Israeli military campaign in Gaza, experts say, now sits among the deadliest and most destructive in recent history. In just over two months, the offensive has wreaked more destruction than the razing of Syria’s Aleppo between 2012 and 2016, Ukraine’s Mariupol or, proportionally, the Allied bombing of Germany in World War II. It has killed more civilians than the U.S.-led coalition did in its three-year campaign against the Islamic State group. The Israeli military has said little about what kinds of bombs and artillery it is using in Gaza. But from blast fragments found on-site and analyses of strike footage, experts are confident that the vast majority of bombs dropped on the besieged enclave are U.S.-made. They say the weapons include 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) “bunker-busters” that have killed hundreds in densely populated areas.

With the Palestinian death toll in Gaza surpassing 20,000, the international community is calling for a cease-fire. Israel vows to press ahead[...]

The Biden administration has quietly continued to supply arms to Israel. Last week, however, President Joe Biden publicly acknowledged that Israel was losing international legitimacy for what he called its “indiscriminate bombing.”[...]

Israel’s offensive has destroyed over two-thirds of all structures in northern Gaza and a quarter of buildings in the southern area of Khan Younis,[...]

The percentage of damaged buildings in the Khan Younis area nearly doubled in just the first two weeks of Israel’s southern offensive, they said. That includes tens of thousands of homes as well as schools, hospitals, mosques and stores. U.N. monitors have said that about 70% of school buildings across Gaza have been damaged. At least 56 damaged schools served as shelters for displaced civilians. Israeli strikes damaged 110 mosques and three churches, the monitors said. Israel holds Hamas responsible for civilian deaths by embedding militants in civilian infrastructure. Those sites also shelter multitudes of Palestinians who have fled under Israeli evacuation orders. “Gaza is now a different color from space. It’s a different texture,” said Scher, who has worked with Van Den Hoek to map destruction across several war zones, from Aleppo to Mariupol.[...]

By some measures, destruction in Gaza has outpaced Allied bombings of Germany during World War II.[...]

“Gaza is one of the most intense civilian punishment campaigns in history,” said Pape. “It now sits comfortably in the top quartile of the most devastating bombing campaigns ever.”[...]

So far, fragments of American-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) bombs and smaller diameter bombs have been found in Gaza, according to Brian Castner, a weapons investigator with Amnesty International.[...] In an Oct. 31 strike on the urban refugee camp of Jabaliya, experts say a 2,000-pound bomb killed over 100 civilians. Experts have also identified fragments of SPICE (Smart, Precise Impact, Cost-Effective) 2000-pound bombs, which are fitted with a GPS guidance system to make targeting more precise. Castner said the bombs are produced by the Israeli defense giant Rafael, but a recent State Department release first obtained by The New York Times showed some of the technology had been produced in the United States.

22 Dec 23

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matan4il · 22 days

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Memo to the 'Experts': Stop Comparing Israel's War in Gaza to Anything. It Has No Precedent | by John Spencer

Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza has inevitably drawn comparisons to other battles or wars, both modern and from the past. These comparisons are mostly used to make the case that Israel's operations in Gaza are the most destructive in history, or the deadliest in history.

Yet while the use of historical analogy may be tempting for armchair pundits, in the case of Israel's current war, the comparisons are often poorly cited, the data used inaccurate, and crucial context left out. Given the scale and context of an enemy purposely entrenched in densely populated urban areas, as well as the presence of tunnels, hostages, rockets, attackers that follow the laws of war while defenders purposely do not, and proximity between the frontlines and the home front, there is basically no historical comparison for this war.

Let's start with the context: After Hamas crossed into Israel on Oct. 7, murdering over 1,200 Israelis in brutal ways that included mutilation and sexual assaults as well as taking over 200 hostages back into Gaza, Israel formally declared a defensive war against Hamas in Gaza in accordance with international law and the United Nations charter. Since, the IDF estimates it has killed 10,000 Hamas operatives, while Hamas claims that the total number of casualties is 24,000 (Hamas does not distinguish civilian deaths from militant deaths).

Hamas' strategy is to use Palestinian civilians as human shields, because their goal is not to defeat Israel's military or to hold terrain; it is far more sinister and medieval—to use the death and suffering of Palestinian civilians to rally international support to their cause and demand that Israel halt their war.

Meanwhile, Israel's war aims were more traditional: returning Israeli hostages, dismantling Hamas military capability, and securing their border to prevent another October 7 attack.

These goals required not one major urban battle but multiple. While Gaza is not the densest populated urban region on earth as many claim, it features over 20 densely-populated cities. And while the Israeli Defense Forces are engaged in fighting, Hamas has continued to launch over 12,000 rockets on nearly every day of the war from the combat area toward civilian-populated areas in Israel, literally over the heads of the attacking IDF, who it bears mentioning are fighting just a few miles from their homeland and the homes of their soldiers.

Put all of this together, this war is simply without precedent. Certainly, it cannot be compared to the host of other wars that have been used for comparison sake to paint Israel in an unflattering light.

Some have compared Israel to Russia, yet there is simply no comparison. In the 2022 Battle of Mariupol, estimates of the number of civilians killed range up to 25,000, including 600 civilians killed in a single bombing of a theater with the word "children" written in giant letters around it. This is the same Russia that killed over 50,000 civilians (5 percent) of a 1.1 million pre-war population of Chechnya in 20 months of combat in the late 1990s in multiple major urban battles such as Grozny.

Or take Syria. Over 300,00 civilians have been killed in the Syrian war; an average of 84 civilians were killed every day from 2013 to 2023.

Others have compared the battles in Gaza to World War II air campaigns like the UK bombing of the German city of Dresden in 1945 that killed an estimated 25,000 civilians. But here, too, memory is selective: These same people discount air campaign cases such as the U.S. firebombing of Tokyo the same year that killed over 300,000 civilians, to include 80,000 to 100,000 civilians in a single night, causing more death and destruction than Dresden, Hiroshima, or Nagaski.

A battle that does bear a resemblance to Israel's war against Hamas is the 1945 Battle of Manila—the largest urban struggle of World War II, with more civilian casualties incurred than even the Battle of Stalingrad. The city had a population of 1.1 million residents as well as over 1,000 American prisoners of war being held in the city. It took the U.S. military 35,000 forces and a whole month to defeat 17,000 Japanese Navy defenders in and around the city.

Like in Gaza, the defenders used the city's sewer and tunnel systems for offensive and defensive purposes. And there were over 100,000 civilian deaths from the battle—one of the major factors of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, which stipulated the laws of armed conflict to further protect civilians and prevent civilian deaths.

Most experts compare the Gaza war to the recent urban battles against ISIS involving United States forces, including the 2016-17 Battle of Mosul. In that battle, over 100,000 Iraqi Security Forces, backed by American advisors and U.S. and coalition air power, took nine months to clear a city of 3,000 to 5,000 lightly armed ISIS fighters. The battle resulted in over 10,000 civilian deaths, 138,000 houses destroyed or damaged and 58,000 damaged with 40,000 homes destroyed outright in just Western Mosul. Iraqi Security Forces suffered 10,000 casualties. There were very limited, shallow, house-to-house tunnels, but no tunnel networks, no hostages, no rockets.

In April of 2004, the U.S. military was directed to arrest the perpetrators of an attack that caused the death of four American civilians and deny insurgents sanctuary in the densely populated city of Fallujah, Iraq, a city of 300,000 residents. The battle that ensued was later dubbed the First Battle of Fallujah. Because of international condemnation and political instability fueled by international media over a perceived indiscriminate use of force and civilian casualties, the U.S. forces were ordered by the U.S. Central Command Commander to stop the battle six days into it.

Estimates of the total civilian deaths from the battle range from 220 to 600. Six months later, in November 2004, the U.S. military initiated the Second Battle of Fallujah. It took 13,000-15,000 U.S., UK, and Iraqi forces six weeks to clear the city of 3,000 insurgents. There were some 800 civilian deaths even though the city's residents had largely evacuated before the battle. Over sixty percent the city's buildings were damaged or destroyed. But there, too, the enemy defenders did not have access to tunnels.

Ultimately, comparisons with both past and modern cases highlight the fact that there is almost no way to defeat an entrenched enemy defender without destruction, even while implementing all feasible precautions and limits on the use of force required by the laws of war.

Let's put away our military history books. There is no comparison to what Israel has faced in Gaza—certainly none by which Israel comes out looking the worse.

John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute (MWI) at West Point, codirector of MWI's Urban Warfare Project and host of the "Urban Warfare Project Podcast." He served for 25 years as an infantry soldier, which included two combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of the book Connected Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connection in Modern War and co-author of Understanding Urban Warfare.

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mariacallous · 6 days

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Anyone who wants to understand Russian history should ignore Russian President Vladimir Putin. But anyone who wants to understand Putin’s strategic aims should pay close attention to his reading of history. The Russian president’s long lectures and essays on Kyivan Rus and World War II are not random tangents but rather the centerpieces driving his regime’s aggression against Ukraine. The Kremlin’s efforts to impose its reading of history on Ukrainians living under occupation reveal the driving motives of this war, as well as its continued objectives.

Against the backdrop of the uncounted—and uncountable—civilian deaths, mass deportations, and domicide across the occupied territories of Ukraine, it might seem trivial to focus on historical memory. But while it is difficult to take one’s eyes off the satellite images of mass graves in Mariupol, if we fail to grasp the broader grammar of Russia’s war against Ukraine, then we will also fail to recognize the broader ambition of Russia’s war efforts: the deliberate annihilation of Ukrainian identity.

Russia’s strategic deployment of historical propaganda in occupied Ukraine involves a comprehensive effort to “Russify” the local populace, leveraging educational, cultural, and military instruments to erase narratives of Ukrainian history and culture.

Those who resist this erasure are themselves destroyed, often physically. In all of the occupied territories, Russian forces arrived with a list of reportedly patriotic individuals to be captured; tortured; and, if they did not break, executed. From the very beginning, as Putin made clear in a June 2021 essay titled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” Russia’s full-scale invasion was intended as a genocidal war.

Genocide aims at the annihilation of the identity and existence of a specific group—in this case, Ukrainians. The crucial aspect of identifying genocide is the intent behind these actions, which distinguishes it from other forms of violence. Evidence of the Kremlin’s destructive intent is overwhelming. And it is overwhelmingly delivered in the language of history.

Upon taking control of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in 2022, Russia launched an aggressive cultural propaganda campaign characterized by the declaration of annexation anniversaries as national holidays, the standardization of cultural practices to align with Russian norms, the establishment of historical propaganda museums, and the re-Sovietization of street names and monuments. These endeavors were aimed at rapidly embedding the occupied territories within the broader Russian cultural and legal fabric, a strategy reminiscent of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and unlike the more fragmented methods employed in the so-called Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine after 2014.

In regions where local resistance is more robust, such as Melitopol and Berdyansk, there is an intensified effort toward cultural and educational Russification. The formation of militarized youth groups—including the Yunarmiya (Young Army), a military-patriotic movement for children and youth initiated by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in 2016, and Eaglets of Russia—is widespread, but the scale and visibility of such programs vary in accordance with the strategic military value of each region to Russia. The nature and intensity of the propaganda varies as well, with a pronounced emphasis on Soviet-era narratives in Donetsk and Luhansk, which were likely deliberately crafted to align with the region’s recent historical narratives and multicultural identities.

While the techniques to suppress Ukrainian identity may adapt, the core objectives of Russian informational campaigns are constant. These efforts relentlessly accentuate the regions’ shared historical and cultural roots with Russia, praising Soviet accomplishments and East Slavic heritage.

The Kremlin’s agenda aims to replace Ukrainian identity with something different—something localized—that can then be subsumed into a broader pan-Russian narrative. To do so, it uses culture and education as weapons of war. This strategy includes mobile libraries, guarded by armed militias, that distribute Russian books and educational resources while destroying Ukrainian books.

Amid this evident historical manipulation and cultural destruction, Russian propaganda distributed in the occupied territories positions the Kremlin as a protector of historical truth, using this stance to propagate narratives conducive to its political and ideological ends. It paints Western and Ukrainian histories as distortions that were deliberately aimed at destroying Russian identity—which the Kremlin argues is the true identity of Ukrainians.

The Khersonshchyna cultural project in the occupied Kherson region, for example, claims to expose Ukrainian history as a series of lies and promotes militaristic Russian myths with the aim of “restoring historical justice” and “curbing the spread of lies.”

Through the adoption of Russian curricular materials, educators, and syllabi prioritizing Russian over Ukrainian heritage, occupation authorities seek to transform residents’ identities, downplaying Ukrainian heritage in favor of a Russian outlook. Russian academics have created an Orwellian 98-page glossary of new correct cultural, historical and social terminology to be enforced in Ukrainian schools on the occupied territories. In the Donbas, organizations such as the Russian Center have produced pseudo-historical doctrines to justify Russia’s occupation. The center, which is funded by the Russian World Foundation, has held a number of festivals centered around the idea that the Donbas is Russia and that Russian culture is inherent to the Donbas.

A common thread in the historical propaganda is the idea that an injustice (Russia’s separation from the lands of what it calls the Donbas and Novorossiya—meaning “New Russia”) has been resolved by the invasion. In September 2023, on the anniversary of the pseudo-referendums held in four newly occupied territories in eastern Ukraine, schools in the Zaporizhzhia region held events to celebrate “reunification with the Russian Federation,” which was referred to as a “restoration of historical justice.” In his state of the nation speech in February 2023, Putin declared the “revival” of the cultural sphere in the occupied territories to be a priority for reestablishing peace. He emphasized the importance of restoring cultural objects to forge a connection across time, asserting that this effort would integrate the local population into the “centuries-old and great Russia.”

In addition to promoting claims of historical restoration and Russian greatness, the occupying forces are systematically undermining Ukraine’s historical legacy. Their strategies extend beyond suppression to the outright destruction and appropriation of Ukrainian heritage. In 2022, the Russian government introduced legislation to legitimize the seizure of items related to Ukrainian cultural heritage. This law permits the inclusion of historical artifacts from occupied regions in the Russian Federation’s registry, effectively erasing their Ukrainian provenance.

The scope of this cultural plunder is vast, with the Ukrainian government reporting that more than 15,000 artifacts have been removed from Kherson alone. Other significant looting pertains to Scythian gold dating back to the 4th century B.C., which was stolen from the Melitopol Museum of Local Lore. That museum and the A. I. Kuindzhi Art Museum were also stripped of their valuable collections. A so-called Ministry of Culture of the Kherson Region has facilitated what the Russian occupiers term the “evacuation” of these items to the Crimean city of Sevastopol, disguising acts of looting as preservation. Their actions and justifications draw obvious parallels with previous examples of imperial looting, such as the British plunder of African artifacts, also carried out under the guise of “evacuation.” Ukrainian archives have also been targeted, with significant portions of the holdings at the regional State Archive of Kherson confiscated.

At least 14 memorials commemorating the victims of the Holodomor—a devastating famine lasting from 1932-33 that was induced by Soviet policies and used to pacify Ukrainian national identity—were dismantled in the communities of Oleshky and Ivanivka in Kherson Oblast. The destruction of these monuments is a further illustration of the erasure of Ukrainian history, especially given that this particular historical episode reveals an ongoing pattern of genocide.

The first deputy chairman of the Kherson Regional Council confirmed these reports, but the occupation administration dismissed the memorials as “tools of manipulation” that were fostering hatred toward Russia.

As they obliterate Ukrainian historical memory, Russian forces are actively reinstalling Soviet-era monuments which were previously removed in Ukraine’s decommunization efforts, especially statues of Lenin. In so doing, the Kremlin is trying to restore a (mis)imagined past of Soviet-Russian greatness and ownership over Ukraine. It is a past that nobody asked them to bring back, but one that will have grave consequences for Russia and Ukraine’s future, given that the indoctrination efforts are most targeted at children.

When Izyum came under occupation in 2022, the establishment of children’s education and cultural centers was prioritized, and such institutions were up and running within weeks. Leveraging educational reforms, patriotic education, and youth organizations, the occupation authorities worked quickly and efficiently to instill a sense of Russian identity among young Ukrainians.

These actions are not only aimed at reshaping the cultural landscape, but also at securing future generations’ allegiance to Russia, often with a clearly militarized agenda, as seen in educational initiatives such as the “Lessons of Courage,” special classes held as part of the school curriculum that glorify the military achievements of the Soviet Union and Russia. These programs include interactions with Russian veterans and encourage expressions of support for current soldiers, further integrating military values into the educational experience.

The establishment of cadet schools in the occupied territories, facilitated through agreements with Russian educational and military authorities, has formalized the militarization of youth, preparing them for possible involvement in future conflicts.

Patriotic education extends beyond the classroom and into extracurricular youth movements and thematic events. Since 2022, in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine, branches of national Russian youth organizations such as Yunarmiya have been established alongside regional military patriotic movements such as the Youth of the South.

Participants receive professional military training, supported by veterans of the Russian Armed Forces and members of the military veterans’ organization Combat Brotherhood. The training includes instruction in weaponry and military tactics. Upon completion, Yunarmiya members are often recruited into the Russian military. According to Andrey Orlov, the exiled Ukrainian director of the Center for Strategic Development of Territories, enrollment in this organization is compulsory in the temporarily occupied territories, with special services personnel frequently visiting educational institutions to engage children in military-themed games. The so-called Warrior Club in occupied Zaporizhzhia, which focuses on military indoctrination and preparation for young men nearing conscription age, highlights the extent of Russia’s commitment to this cause.

There is a grisly strategy behind Russia’s militaristic engagement with children in the occupied territories: to indoctrinate them into forsaking their national identity and to groom them to die for their new supposed motherland.

Despite Moscow’s extensive indoctrination efforts, there has been resistance. Officials from the temporarily occupied Luhansk region have reported recruitment difficulties to the Kremlin, noting a significant shortage of teachers in Russian language, literature, and history.

As Ukrainian teachers refuse to teach these subjects, educators are brought in from Russia, often housed in apartments confiscated from local residents. This considerable influx of Russian educators tasked with instilling a Russian-centric curriculum should also be seen as part of Russian demographic engineering efforts, deporting Ukrainians to Siberia and further, while bringing in Russian citizens to take their place.

Still, in the face of penalties and home raids, a notable segment of the population steadfastly refuses to enroll their children in Russian-administered schools, instead opting for home-schooling. The rejection of Russian educational mandates underscores the enduring spirit of Ukrainian identity and a widespread collective desire to preserve national consciousness. This resilience is also demonstrated by the hundreds of students who, despite the risks of retaliation, use VPNs to pursue their studies with Ukrainian universities and schools online, sustaining vital community ties.

Moreover, Ukrainians are countering attempts to expunge their cultural memory. Last November, residents in occupied areas followed the Ukrainian tradition of lighting candles in their windows to commemorate the Holodomor. Despite the perils, with Russian forces actively dismantling Holodomor memorials, many courageously shared images of these acts of remembrance via Telegram, in commitment to their history and identity.

The Kremlin’s Russification, historical falsification, youth indoctrination, militarization, and cultural manipulation reveal Russia’s true agenda. In keeping with Putin’s rhetoric since 2022, it is clear that Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine is aimed not only at territorial control, but also at the eradication of Ukrainian national identity.

Faced with conquerors that view their national existence as a threat, the cultural resistance of Ukrainians in the occupied territories is not only a refusal to submit to Kremlin propaganda—it is an essential part of Ukraine’s survival.

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diogxnxs · 4 months

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Donald Duck suffering from PTSD was in fact already made into an official comic years back.

It is a product of its time, so I had to censor the slurs that were considered normal then. It's dark humor given what people were going through at the time. It didn't help that the victory in Europe overshadowed the war in the pacific that was still ongoing when they were already celebrating. It's quite symbolical that Donald was stationed there because despite his number 1 status during WW2 Era as a man duck soldiers could relate to, his popularity would eventually wane in the US during the peace time, overtaken by Mickey Mouse. And, as the comics go, he's not been having a perfect time in Duckburg either as seen in The Magnificent Seven (Minus 4) Caballeros written by Don Rosa who too is a Three Caballeros fan. All of Rosa's stories were set around the 1950s, post-war era.

Our poor veteran war hero cannot catch a break. Not only did he face the horrors of a war where no man can ever come out normal but Duckburg in the post-war era wasn't that kind in the treatment of our US Veteran either. Another sad part is that Military Medicine regarding PTSD was fairly new in this era. It was first called "Shell Shock" or "Old Sargeant's Disease." Eventually, it was referred to as "Combat Stress Reaction" (CSR) during WWII but colloquially it was referred to as "battle fatigue." They didn't even think it was a real thing until the numbers started showing. Initially, people thought that those who suffered from it were those who weren't made of "hard stuff" but even the toughest of men would suffer in that war. This led to a completely different outlook. Treatment for it back then wasn't that developed either and adjusting to civilian life after living in a state of conflict for so long is difficult. Despite this, Donald was able to raise three kids on his own and live a fairly normal high-functioning life taking on various jobs from being a sailor again to even being a policeman. (Or a superhero. Yeah. That one counts too) Donald Duck serves as a great symbol of hope and grit for the good that can still be had in life in spite of the troubles we've experienced. Because if this white duck can bounce back, so can you.

Some Sources: History of PTSD in Veterans: Civil War to DSM-5 WWII Post Traumatic Stress Posttraumatic stress disorder and the World War II veteran Duck and Cover: Donald’s World War II Short Subjects Donald Duck Received Official Discharge Papers from the Defense Department

#WW2 Donald Duck #Donald Duck #Duck Comics #Disney #PTSD #WW2 #Duckverse #Ducktales #Thoughts #World War 2 #The Mag 7 - 4 Caballeros Comic holds a special place in my heart because it comes to show what being surrounded by support and love does.#WW2 and Post-War Era is my favorite Donald Duck to explore.#There's just so much you can do with it.

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somerabbitholes · 13 days

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Books you would recommend on this topic? Colonial, post colonial, and Cold War Asia are topics that really interest me. (Essentially all of the 1900s)

Hello! An entire century is huge and I don't quite know what exactly you're looking for, but here we are, with a few books I like. I've tried organising them, but so many of these things bleed into each other so it's a bit of a jumble

Cold War

1971 by Srinath Raghavan: about the Bangladesh Liberation War within the context of the Cold War, US-Soviet rivalry, and the US-China axis in South Asia

Cold War in South Asia by Paul McGarr: largely focuses on India and Pakistan, and how the Cold War aggravated this rivalry; also how the existing tension added to the Cold War; also the transition from British dominance to US-Soviet contest

Kennedy, Johnson, and the Nonaligned World by Robert B. Rakove: on the US' ties with the Nonaligned countries during decolonisation and in the early years of the Cold War; how US policy dealt with containment, other strategic choices etc

South Asia's Cold War by Rajesh Basrur: specifically about nuclear buildup, armament and the Indo-Pak rivalry within the larger context of the Cold War, arms race, and disarmament movements

Colonialism

India's War by Srinath Raghavan: about India's involvement in World War II and generally what the war meant for South Asia politically, economically and in terms of defense strategies

The Coolie's Great War by Radhika Singha: about coolie labour (non-combatant forces) in the first World War that was transported from India to battlefronts in Europe, Asia and Africa

Unruly Waters by Sunil Amrith: an environmental history of South Asia through British colonial attempts of organising the flow of rivers and the region's coastlines

Underground Revolutionaries by Tim Harper: about revolutionary freedom fighters in Asia and how they met, encountered and borrowed from each other

Imperial Connections by Thomas R. Metcalf: about how the British Empire in the Indian Ocean was mapped out and governed from the Indian peninsula

Decolonisation/Postcolonial Asia

Army and Nation by Steven Wilkinson: a comparative look at civilian-army relations in post-Independence India and Pakistan; it tries to excavate why Pakistan went the way it did with an overwhelmingly powerful Army and a coup-prone democracy while India didn't, even though they inherited basically the same military structure

Muslim Zion by Faisal Devji: a history of the idea of Pakistan and its bearing on the nation-building project in the country

The South Asian Century by Joya Chatterji: it's a huge book on 20th century South Asia; looks at how the subcontinental landmass became three/four separate countries, and what means for history and culture and the people on the landmass

India Against Itself by Sanjib Baruah: about insurgency and statebuilding in Assam and the erstwhile NEFA in India's Northeast. Also see his In the Name of the Nation.

I hope this helps!

#anonymous #answered #book recs #india #south asia #historyblr

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kokote · 4 months

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The Korean War, which broke out on June 25, 1950, followed the example set by the United States during World War II of massive bombing campaigns targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. Nevertheless, throughout the war, American leaders claimed that U.S. airstrikes were being used in a “discriminate manner,” avoiding harm to civilians.

During the war, the American military stretched the term “military target” to include virtually all human-made structures. Under this logic, almost any building could serve a military purpose, even a minor one. Nearly all of the civilian infrastructure on the side of North Korea was deemed a military target and open to attack.

“More than 428,000 bombs were dropped on Pyongyang alone, the number more than that of Pyongyang citizens at that time. The U.S. had completely reduced the whole territory of Korea into ashes by showering bombs of nearly 600,000 tons, 3.7 times greater than those dropped on Japan during the Pacific War, even using napalm bombs prohibited by the international conventions."

On December 15, 1950, under the guise of preventing the “communist imperialist” threat to world peace and the liberties the American people enjoy, President Truman declared a state of emergency and the necessity to increase the military budget given the “recent events” in Korea. About a month later, on January 15, 1951, Truman requested from Congress 71.5 billion dollars (840 billion dollars today, adjusted for inflation) for a new defense budget.

President Truman’s December 15 proclamation stated:

“whereas if the goal of communist imperialism were to be achieved, the people of this country would not longer enjoy the full and rich life they have with God's help built for themselves and their children; they would no longer enjoy the blessings of the freedom of worshiping as they severally choose, the freedom of reading and listening to what they choose, the right of free speech including the right to criticize their Government, the right to choose those who conduct their Government, the right to engage freely in collective bargaining, the right to engage freely in their own business enterprises, and the many other freedoms and rights which are a part of our way of life…”

Despite the U.S. state narrative, the U.S. sought the division of Korea to secure and advance U.S. political and economic interests in Northeast Asia, economically and militarily expanding into new markets and puppet states for cheap labor and resources.

Korea and its proximity to Northeast Asia represents strategic importance to the U.S., and the Middle East occupies just as important, if not a greater position, in U.S. geopolitical interests. Access to cheap oil is essential for the economy of the U.S., and since 1945, the U.S. has made continuous and sustained efforts to secure its grip on the region.

Back in 1948, the same year the United States divided Korea into North and South, the U.S. became the first country to recognize the state of Israel over the land of Palestine. From 1948 until this day, Israel has received more than $280 billion in direct military assistance and economic support, making it the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid. Israel has U.S. interests in formulating its foreign policy. U.S. and Israeli military presence furthers its economic interest in oil, controlling the trade route of the Suez Canal, and maintaining a monopoly on the extraction of resources from the Middle East.

The U.S. genocidal support for Israel’s crimes is not out of the ordinary. Israel is a carbon copy of what the U.S. did to the indigenous people of Turtle Island, and all the crimes it has since committed against anti-colonial struggles in the global south in the name of “freedom” and "democracy." Israel is a continuation of American and European capitalist expansion post-World War II and its project of European white supremacist dominance over the world.

Their methods and lies for destruction are all the same. The U.S. pays, the media lies, and civilians are gunned down in the name of “peace”.

Today Palestine shows the world the truth and depth of American intervention and imperialism overseas.

#for the two people who engaged with my go posts here #palestine #korea #anticommunism #israel #us war crimes #gaza #imperialism #DPRK #north korea

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steampunkforever · 5 months

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The pistol has little use in wartime. There. I said it. Pistols in wartime are for making the officers feel like the prettiest boys at the party. In truth, wartime engagement distances are way too far for pistols to matter, and weapons technology has developed compact rifle caliber packages that are far superior at close quarters warfare compared to the handling and limitations of a pistol.

Civilian, spycraft, and police use are more sensible pistol doctrines than wartime use. A pistol to protect yourself from a mugger, home invader, or carjacker (Atlanta still has those or so I’ve heard) makes perfect sense considering the tight spaces in which these conflicts occur and the need to limit overpenetration in civilian areas. Battlefield ranges, on the other hand, require rifle rounds to reach out and put holes in armor, something pistols cannot do.

Pistols are also more covert than even the smaller pistol caliber carbines. Undercover operatives armed with a pistol either for defensive or offensive purposes can keep one low profile and tucked away, sometimes even just comfortably stored in their pocket. The quieter report of a pistol means that even with a suppressor installed, the overall package stays small and discreet, something that doesn’t really matter when the rules of war prevent soldiers from dressing as civilians.

The pistol is for quick, short-range, dynamic engagements. Police work is full of these. The limited weight and portability of a pistol means that one can be comfortably strapped to a gun belt for a day of patrolling, and with most civilian gun battles lasting less than ten seconds, the limited magazine round count doesn’t matter for day to day operations. The militarization of the police is trying to change this, of course, but it comes down to the fact that an MTA cop simply doesn’t want to be carrying a 10 to 15 pound hunk of metal slung across his chest all day when he could just keep a 5 pound lump comfortably on his belt.

Practicality wins out here, and a pistol is going to make much more sense for someone living in a friendly city with less imminent danger than someone dropped in a world battlefield having to go up against battle rifles.

All this to say that actually, Shadow the hedgehogs use of pistols is probably more justified by tactical doctrine than the guy on the cover of Modern Warfare II.

#shadow the hedgehog

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astoundingbeyondbelief · 3 months

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Kaiju Week in Review (January 28-February 3, 2024)

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Minecraft: Bedrock Edition's Godzilla DLC is now available. I joined Wikizilla's stream of it yesterday as a spectator and found it quite entertaining (especially when @squid-in-a-party-hat switched to Creative Mode and started summoning mini-kaiju). I'll post the highlight reel from that stream when it's finished. The main hub of this DLC is a combination movie theater/gallery; each of the four screens lets you access a different minigame. The first is based on the original film and has you rescuing civilians and just trying to survive as Godzilla trashes Tokyo. The second transforms you into Godzilla and pits you and your allies against various kaiju from the first three series. The third tasks you with defending Tokyo against Shin Godzilla, with each defensive phase featuring a different form. The fourth just has you taking photos of the battles in Godzilla vs. Kong (with the Tasmian Sea fight replaced by Godzilla barging into Kong's dome). I found the second and third to be the most interesting, but it's dismaying that only the third really takes advantage of these games being in Minecraft. You scrounge items, build barricades, lay down TNT, trade with NPCs, summon agents, fire blood coagulation potion into Godzilla's mouth from a crossbow... it's a lot more involved than the others.

In further Godzilla video game news, the Heisei MOGUERA and a crystal-hurling SpaceGodzilla variation have joined Godzilla Battle Line, the upcoming Godzilla x Kong: Titan Chasers mobile game is teasing its original monsters, and Dave the Diver of all things announced a free PlayStation-exclusive Godzilla DLC for May.

Here's a rare sequel to an IDW Godzilla miniseries. Godzilla: Here There Be Dragons II - Sons of Giants will boast the same writer (Frank Tieri) and artist (Inaki Miranda) as its predecessor. The logline:

The sequel to last summer’s smash miniseries! Frank Tieri and Inaki Miranda reunite to explore the conspiracy that led to Sir Francis Drake hiding his treasure on Monster Island! Who are the Sons of Giants, and what is their mission? More importantly, what is their connection to Godzilla and the other monsters? This series shows us how it all came to be, how Godzilla was discovered by the leaders of the world, and how it changed history forever!

Despite the Roman numerals, sounds like a prequel. I still think there's something off about any Godzilla story set before the Atomic Age, but the Sons of Giants were the most interesting part of the original Here There Be Dragons, and historical figures encountering the King of the Monsters is always amusing.

Naturally, Funko is making a line of Pops for Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. The standout is the Amazon-exclusive figure of a sleeping Godzilla; I also love how Shimo looks like she's yakking. Monogram also revealed the lineup for its sixth wave of Toho Godzilla bag clips, as well as a GxK set. Highlights of the former are a curled-up Final Wars Anguirus, a Simeon, and Zilla; the latter is notable for including a previously-unrevealed monster called a Parrot Frog.

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Tokyo's Hibiya neighborhood has long played host to Godzilla statues: first the Kawakita Godzilla, then Shin. Now they're getting a new three-meter statue of the original '54 Godzilla. It emits smoke at night, the mouth glows, and there seems to be some kind of AR app through which he fires atomic breath at you. Despite it being a 70th anniversary installation, however, it'll only be in Hibiya until March 10. I'm guessing that won't be the last we see of it.

#kaiju week in review #godzilla #toys #minecraft #godzilla here there be dragons ii sons of giants #godzilla x kong the new empire #kaiju

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loving-n0t-heyting · 6 months

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Falluja. Mosul. Copenhagen. Hiroshima.

Facing global criticism over a bloody military campaign in Gaza that has killed thousands of civilians, Israeli officials have turned to history in their defense. And the names of several infamous sites of death and destruction have been on their lips.

In public statements and private diplomatic conversations, the officials have cited past Western military actions in urban areas dating from World War II to the post-9/11 wars against terrorism. Their goal is to help justify a campaign against Hamas that is claiming thousands of Palestinian lives.

#the court chaplains of democracy indeed

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religion-is-a-mental-illness · 19 days

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-must-can-and-will-win-hamas-defeat-rafah-war-gaza-22e9a19d

By: Ophir Falk

Published: Mar 14, 2024

Jerusalem -- Mounting international pressure to end the war won’t weaken Israel’s resolve to accomplish its mission of destroying Hamas, freeing the hostages and guaranteeing that Gaza will never pose a threat to Israel again. Detractors dismiss total victory as implausible, but the facts on the ground indicate otherwise.

Israel has already dismantled 18 of Hamas’s 24 battalions, incapacitated more than 21,500 Hamas terrorists—about two-thirds of its force, including two of the top four leaders—and destroyed significant terror tunnels. By contrast, it took U.S. military forces nine months to take out 5,000 ISIS fighters in Mosul.

John Spencer, chairman of urban warfare studies at West Point, described Israel’s achievements as “unprecedented,” especially given the complex combat conditions above and below ground. Mr. Spencer says that Israel is setting the “gold standard” for avoiding civilian casualties.

Israel doesn’t need prompting to provide humanitarian aid or to act with caution. According to retired British Col. Richard Kemp, the average combatant-to-civilian death ratio in Gaza is about 1 to 1.5. This is astonishing since, according to the United Nations, the average combatant-to-civilian death ratio in urban warfare has been 1 to 9. Israel seeks to minimize civilian casualties, while Hamas seeks to maximize civilian casualties and use them as a propaganda tool. We cannot let Hamas’s strategy pay off.

Hamas has four terror brigades in Rafah. That city is Hamas’s last stronghold, and its defeat is a prerequisite for victory. Whoever pressures Israel to refrain from entering Rafah is preventing the destruction of Hamas and the freeing of Israel and Gazan civilians from Hamas’s stranglehold. Gen. David Petraeus, who led the 2007 American surge in Iraq, said last week that the “key now is to not stop until Hamas is fully destroyed.”

Asking Israel to stop the war now is akin to telling the Allies to stop halfway to Berlin in World War II. If Hamas isn’t eradicated, genocidal terrorists will continue to emerge. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told new Israel Defense Forces cadets last week, “when we defeat the murderers of October 7, we are preventing the next 9/11.” Global leaders should take note.

High-intensity combat will wind down after Rafah, humanitarian aid will no longer be hijacked by Hamas, and safety for civilians can be realized. Total victory is within reach. Israel will finish the job. Anything less will endanger the rest of the civilized world.

[ Via: https://archive.today/aioGF ]

the average combatant-to-civilian death ratio in Gaza is about 1 to 1.5. ... the average combatant-to-civilian death ratio in urban warfare has been 1 to 9.

The Palestinian "genocide," ladies and gentlemen. The lowest combatant-to-civilian ratio of any urban warfare.

#John Spencer #Ophir Falk #exterminate hamas #hamas #israel #palestine #free palestine #antisemitism #palestinian genocide #genocide #Rafah #islamic terrorism #hamas supporters #pro palestine #pro hamas #ceasefire #ceasefire now #no ceasefire #religion is a mental illness

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zvaigzdelasas · 4 months

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A new agreement between Germany and Lithuania will lead to German troops' first permanent foreign deployment since World War II. The announcement was made Monday in Lithuania, where Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas met with his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, to outline a multiyear "Roadmap Action Plan" involving approximately 4,800 permanently stationed German soldiers. Both officials called the move a historical moment not just for their nations but for NATO as well. German troops, including those with families, will be stationed in the Lithuanian cities of Kaunas and Vilnius beginning in 2024, with most troops deployed in 2025 and 2026 and full-operation capability expected by 2027. In turn, Lithuania has committed to providing all necessary civilian and military infrastructure. The agreement was originally announced in June, but no timeline was presented at that time.[...]

Lithuanian lawmaker Laurynas Kasciunas, head of the parliamentary National Security and Defense Committee, said the country will allocate 0.3 percent of its gross domestic product over the next several years to help fund the deployment and to build housing, training grounds and other infrastructure for the German troops. Taxes will likely have to be raised to accommodate this plan, he said.

18 Dec 23

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quercus-queer · 5 months

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Happy Thanksgiving otherwise known as Drama with a Side of Turkey... if someone picks a fight with you about current events here is a very brief surface level list of talking points

According to Article 3 of the Geneva Convention and Article 6 of Additional Protocol II collective punishment is a war crime.

Israel Katz himself is quoted as saying "they [Gazans] will not receive a drop of water or a single battery until they leave the world."

Furthermore Article 51 of the Berlin Rules on Water Resources prohibits combatants (in this case the Israeli military from removing water infrastructure.

International Humanitarian Law prohibits any siege depriving civilians of essential goods while Yoav Gallant's "defense tactics" are a complete blockade of Gaza. It is well documented by the United Nations and journalists how deprived the civilians in Gaza are by the Israeli aggression.

The so-called gracious “evacuations” ordered by Israel is a crime according to the International Criminal Court under forcible transfer.

The use of white phosphorus violates Protocol III of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons as the Israeli army is using it directly against human beings in a civilian setting.

Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas on earth with 47.3% of the population being under 18 there is no circumstance in which any incendiary weapon should be deployed in Gaza let alone community centers.

In case there is doubt, there are videos of white phosphorous being used in broad daylight and on hospitals (Al-Durrah Children's Hospital).

The air strikes themselves violate international law as Daniel Hagari himself has stated that the emphasis of the Israeli air strikes is on damage and not on accuracy.

The Israeli government has carried out air strikes on the Al-Shati refugee camp sheltering over 90,000 refugees from Israeli aggression.

Targeting commercial centers like the Jabalia camp market which has been attacked multiple times since October 7th is a war crime.

It is a war crime to target buildings dedicated to education or charitable purposes.

On October 17th Israel carried out an airstrike on the United Nations Relief and Works Agency school in the Al-Maghazi refugee camp. A United Nations school within a refugee camp.

Israeli officials later claimed United Nations workers are Hamas allies

Medical neutrality as described under the Geneva Convention has been violated as stated by the World Health Organization…

Every hospital bombed is another war crime Israel has committed. Bringing back the white phosphorus issue, Israel hit Al-Durrah Children's Hospital with white phosphorus munition. Bringing back water resources and collective punishment (which I hope we established was bad), the remaining hospitals are collapsing due to lack of electricity and water.

"But Hamas tunnels! Human shields! Guards! Weapons!" None of that negates a hospital's protected status as described in the Geneva Convention.

It is a war crime to attack buildings dedicated to religion regardless of who is housed but especially if its housing refugees... obviously... again its in the Geneva Convention.

The Church of Saint Porphyrius, the Al-Gharbi mosque, Yassin mosque, and Al-Sousi mosque have been directly attacked

The intentional targeting of journalists is a war crime according to the Council of Europe.

There are 31 journalists who have been killed along with their families being targeted.

On October 10th Israel bombed a residential building (war crime) which also contained journalist offices (war crime). You can take a pick of whether they were targeting civilians or journalists, either way it’s a war crime.

Killing surrendered civilians OR SURRENDERED COMBATANTS is again a war crime.

Israeli officials still have no comment on the video of IDF forces executing four unarmed Palestinian men kneeling on the ground (one of which was waving white clothing).

Videos have also surfaced of IDF soldiers violating international law by assaulting detainees and committing sexual humiliation.

Israel has expanded their attack to neighboring countries by carrying out air strikes in Lebanon, ready to fulfill their manifest destiny of Greater Israel.

Under the 1998 Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, Israeli settlement of Palestine is a war crime. Obviously that is beyond a lot of peoples willingness to comprehend so lets reiterate what is happening right now.

The average age of dead people in Gaza is 5.

More facts: Israel does not reflect the Jewish people or Jewish values they are a settler colonial state enacting apartheid and committing genocide. Conflating Israel with jewish people is anti-semetic. Evangelicals are the largest zionist group in the world because they are anti-semetic. AIPAC is the largest donor to politicians. Israel has systemically harmed holocaust survivors (1/3 of survivors in Israel are in poverty, they called them "soap bars", and said they were "inferior" as they were like "sheep to the slaughter"). Israel has violated Ethiopian Jewish woman's autonomy (Depo-Provera (contraceptive) every three months in Israeli clinics without their knowledge) and police brutality. Israel is a safe haven for pedophiles.

#gaza #palestine #israel #boycott israel #free palestine #thanksgiving #I’ll add more links to articles if this gets any traction

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i-am-church-the-cat · 6 months

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Hi. I know things can tend to get lost so I wanted to make one big post for any of my followers to see.

If you enjoy any of the stuff I put on here or any of my works on ao3 and want to see more of it in the future, the best way to support me is to follow what is happening in Palestine right now.

For those who don't know, the country of Palestine is the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea that was colonized by Great Britain and Zionist armies after World War II (though it started in the 19th century). After Palestine was taken over by Zionists, the country was renamed Israel and Palestinians were pushed out of their homes in a ethnic cleansing called the Nakba. Since then, the areas that were designated for Palestinians (the Gaza Strip and the West Bank) have continued to shrink.

The Gaza Strip, a piece of land that is only 141 square miles, holds 2 millions Palestinian people. It is often called "the world's largest open-air prison" because Palestinians living there are not allowed to leave or move about freely, the water, food, and electricity is all controlled by the Israeli government, and the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) regularly arrests, injures, and murders civilians there.

On October 7th, 2023, a radical group known as Hamas attacked the boundary between Gaza and Israel, killing over 1000 people. In response, Israel has launched a full-scale assault. In the last 13 days, Israel has launched over 600 bombs and killed 4000 people, more than 1000 of them being children. This is all sanctioned by the 3 billion USD the United States pays Israel every year and their refusal to call for humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.

There is a genocide happening and my government is complicit in it. Chances are your government is, too.

If you want to learn more from people far more educated than I, please go to this website run by Palestinian people. If you wish to help, please go to this public toolkit. And don't stop there: do your own research, look at other people's resources, because I promise there's a whole lot more than can be fit into one post.

Please don't look away from what is happening. If the worst does happen, the least we can do is remember the people who died for something they believed in, the children who never knew anything different, the once thriving culture that was decimated because of racism and Islamophobia.

Thank you for reading and Free Palestine 🇵🇸

#long post #free palestine #palestine #israel #from the river to the sea palestine will be free #information #resources #gaza strip #genocide #war crimes #current events #news

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mariacallous · 6 months

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of a “long war” in a recorded address on Tuesday as the country’s warplanes continued to pound the densely populated Gaza Strip. In the three weeks since Hamas’s rampage left more than 1,400 Israelis dead, the country’s top officials have maintained their intent to wipe Hamas “off the face of the earth.”

After 16 years in power, Hamas is deeply entrenched in the Gaza Strip. Regional experts have questioned Israel’s ability to dislodge the militant group in its entirety. Even if Israel were to succeed in toppling Hamas, it would leave a governance and political vacuum in its wake and a humanitarian crisis of unthinkable proportions. Already, more than 9,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the local health ministry, which is run by Hamas, but whose numbers have been historically reliable. Among the dead are more than 3,500 children, according to the United Nations.

But what comes after the war? Israeli officials have said little about their plans for the enclave and its 2.1 million residents. In this regard, they have evoked comparisons to the way that the United States went into Iraq and Afghanistan.

Foreign Policy spoke to almost a dozen current and former U.S. and Israeli diplomats and intelligence officials, Palestinian scholars, and regional experts about the future of Gaza. All expressed deep uncertainty, but through political, security, and diplomatic roadblocks, a set of grim scenarios begins to emerge, almost by a process of elimination.

“There’s no fantastic options here. You’re in the zone of what I would call, to put it gently, suboptimal options,” said David Makovsky, who was a senior advisor to the special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations at the U.S. State Department.

Can Israel Actually Destroy Hamas?

Projections for what is to come in Gaza start bleakly and get worse from there. A ground invasion of the enclave, a thicket of densely packed high-rise buildings, has been compared to the battle against the Islamic State in Mosul, Iraq, in 2016, which saw some of the world’s most punishing urban warfare since World War II.

Except in Gaza, it could be worse. Hamas has had years to entrench its positions in hundreds of miles of tunnels buried underground. The militant group has been known to stake out positions next to schools, hospitals, and mosques, further complicating matters for Israeli targeting. Already, the ferocity of Israel’s bombing campaign has exceeded the most intense rounds of airstrikes used in the U.S.-led coalition battle for Mosul.

“Almost by definition, the Israeli military objective can only be achieved by leveling significant parts of Gaza,” said Frank Lowenstein, a former special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations for the U.S. State Department.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have repeatedly called on 1 million people to evacuate from Northern Gaza, warning that any who stay will be regarded as an “accomplice” of Hamas. Some 350,000 civilians remain, according to Israeli estimates. Some are too old or sick to be moved; others fear that they will never be allowed to return. Those who have fled to the south have still come under bombardment as Israeli airstrikes have struck throughout the Gaza Strip.

Israeli officials have set a goal of stamping out every last trace of Hamas, “not just decapitating Hamas tactically, but also crushing its ability to have any military or jurisdictional ruling capabilities in Gaza” irrespective of whether they are part of the group’s military wing, said a senior Israeli diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity but was not authorized to speak on the record due to Ministry of Foreign Affairs protocol. “There is no differentiation. If they are Hamas, they are Hamas,” the diplomat said.

Beyond the challenging military terrain, experts have questioned whether Israel can even eradicate Hamas in its entirety. In addition to the group’s military wing, tens of thousands of Hamas and some Palestinian Authority bureaucrats run schools, hospitals, and an ad hoc judicial system.

“We’re now talking about some 60,000 people,” said Khalil Shikaki, the director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. “They are running classes and schools, [and they are] doctors and nurses and people working in social services, people providing water and electricity. Why would Israel go after these people?” Shikaki said.

And then there is the challenge of Hamas as an idea. Founded in the late 1980s with a commitment to armed resistance and the annihilation of Israel, Hamas is the second-largest entity in Palestinian politics. “It’s an organizational embodiment of an idea,” said Aaron David Miller, a former senior U.S. State Department official who worked on Middle East peace negotiations.

As the death toll rises and humanitarian suffering in Gaza compounds, there is a significant chance that Israel’s pursuit of security now could sow the seeds of future insecurity. “I can’t even begin to wrap my brain around the long-term humanitarian and even security implications,” said Khaled Elgindy, the director the Middle East Institute’s program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli affairs.

“In the same way that Israelis have this desire for revenge, we can assume that that same human impulse is going to be present on a much more massive scale among Palestinians,” he said.

The Challenge of Reconstruction

While right-wing Israeli lawmakers have floated the idea of annexing parts of the strip, where Israel dismantled its settlements in 2005, senior officials have repeatedly indicated that they have no desire to reoccupy Gaza in the wake of the war.

It’s difficult to envision a day-after scenario in which the IDF doesn’t maintain at least a short-term presence on the ground to prevent any last vestiges of Hamas from reconstituting, as well as to stabilize the immediate situation. Israeli military leaders are already laying the groundwork for an interim scenario in which they oversee security and civilian life in the strip and are already looking at transferring personnel from the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, a military unit that deals with civilian issues in the West Bank, to temporary roles in Gaza, according to a report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

In the immediate aftermath of an Israeli military operation, humanitarian and reconstruction needs will be gargantuan. Hospitals and mortuaries are already overwhelmed. Supplies of fuel, needed to run hospital generators and water sanitation plants, are already dwindling after three weeks of Israel’s siege.

In the slightly longer term, experts point to a possible coalition of Arab states—potentially signatories of the Abraham Accords, which Israel feels it can work with—that could serve as an interim force to fill the security and governance vacuum in Gaza with support from the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations.

“I can see Egyptian, Jordanian, and Saudi soldiers with the international community controlling the region during an interim stage, and a huge amount of money that will come from the [United Arab] Emirates and the Saudis in order to reconstruct,” said Ami Ayalon, the former chief of Israeli domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet. But the longer and bloodier that Israel’s campaign in Gaza is, the more challenging it will become to secure the cooperation of Arab states.

Then there is the monumental challenge of reconstruction, the cost of which will likely run into the billions of dollars. Amid periodic outbreaks of hostilities between Israel and Hamas over the past decade, Gaza has been in a near constant state of reconstruction. Efforts to rebuild homes and infrastructure destroyed by war have been hamstrung by unfulfilled donor pledges and complicated screening mechanisms put in place to prevent construction materials from falling into the hands of Hamas.

“Reconstruction is crucial,” said Makovsky, the former U.S. State Department advisor. “You need to produce at least the potential of progress quickly.”

Politics After Hamas

The further out that one looks, the murkier Gaza’s future becomes. If Hamas is removed after running the Gaza Strip since 2007, the most obvious candidate to fill the void would be the Palestinian Authority (PA), which runs the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority was created in the wake of the Oslo peace process in the mid-1990s, with the hopes of laying the groundwork for a future Palestinian state.

But this is not a great best-case scenario.

First, there are the optics. The PA was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007 and is unlikely to embrace the idea of returning in the wake of a punishing Israeli military campaign to unseat its rival. “They don’t want to be viewed as coming in on an Israeli tank and taking over the Gaza Strip,” said Zaha Hassan, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, whose research focuses on Palestine-Israel peace.

And then there is the question of legitimacy. The PA hasn’t held a presidential election since 2005, when the now 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas was first elected. An overwhelming majority of Palestinians see the PA as corrupt and inefficient, while its security cooperation with Israel in the West Bank is regarded with deep suspicion as Israeli settlers have continued to chip away at Palestinian lands.

Next comes the capacity issue. The PA has struggled to protect civilians from attacks by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, and its budgets have been stretched to breaking point as Israel has withheld millions of dollars in tax revenues gathered from Palestinians.

The very survival of the PA has come into question in recent years, let alone its ability to take 2 million Gazans under its wing in the wake of a war. For the Palestinian government to have any authority, it would take new elections, significant resources, and “a very different attitude from the Israelis,” said Lowenstein, the former U.S. special envoy. “But we’re at the other end of the spectrum on all of those issues right now,” he noted.

The last Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006 yielded a shock victory in Gaza for Hamas, which has long sought the destruction of Israel, as a protest vote against perceived corruption in Fatah, the main party in the West Bank. New elections for the Palestinian Authority could include commitments to nonviolence as a means to prevent the election of extremist groups, Lowenstein said. But democratic elections are inherently unpredictable and could require Israel and its partners to respect results that they do not necessarily like.

“Politics is not something that you can engineer from the outside,” said Elgindy of the Middle East Institute.

While an Israeli ground invasion is likely to deal a devastating blow to Hamas’s commanders, its foot soldiers, and its arms caches, many analysts noted that the only long-term solution to address Israel’s need for security and Palestinian’s hopes for self-determination is to work toward a political solution to the conflict.

Speaking to reporters last week, U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated his support for a peace deal and the creation of a Palestinian state. Before the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, hopes for such a deal had long since slid into the rearview mirror. Support for a two-state solution among Israelis and Palestinians has also declined precipitously in recent years, but many still see it as the only viable way to resolve the conflict.

“If we want to see the state of Israel safe and without losing our identity as a Jewish democracy, this is the only concept. Because otherwise we shall create an apartheid state, and we shall never be secure,” said Ayalon, the former Shin Bet director.

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