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#This may be too thorough but idc.
dootznbootz · 6 months
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Odysseus was afraid the entire year on Aeaea in the Odyssey.
Content warnings: Rape, Sexual Coercion, Sexual assault, Sex Work, power dynamics, this will also be long as fuck as I talk too much. This is NOT a "Circe the Goddess Hate Post". I call her out but that's it. I tried to keep this neutral but still making a point (Let me know if I gotta put more)
Lots of lovely folks on here have written great essays on what Calypso did to Odysseus as it's soooo blatantly obvious there. It literally states how he cried every day and how he flinched from Calypso, very straightforward on how he was explicitly raped.
But I've noticed that a lot of people are always iffy about Circe's situation (understandably so, it's not so in your face.) She's usually always mentioned in the "Odysseus never cheated! He was raped!" posts but then the evidence is only ever given against Calypso, and then mentioning how you can't say no or disobey the orders of an immortal and how it was in exchange for freeing his men.
WHICH IS ALL CORRECT!!! But!!!
There ARE immortal/mortal couples who genuinely love each other. Dionysus and Ariadne, and Eros and Psyche are examples. Apollo and Hyacinthus. Psyche indeed becomes immortal eventually and in some versions, both Hyacinthus and Ariadne do too. But even while mortal themselves, their immortal lovers still remained respectful and loving towards them and definitely doted on them. There are definitely power dynamics at play here but there's some nuance.
Odysseus and Circe's relationship, however, is very different. We all know he slept with her at the very least once. And that was in exchange for his men being returned to humans. That was the only time it was explicitly stated. With Calypso, it tells you every night he was enchanted and slept beside her. It was the narrator speaking but Odysseus is the narrator now and it's his story. If you think he lied, this probably won't change your mind anyway.
But even if it was a one-time thing, (which isn't the only interpretation and I will have points that talk about others) then why did he stay a year? What was he doing?
I'm doing a deep dive into the year he spent on Aeaea based on evidence in Book 10 and then the beginning of Book 12. Step by step, and honestly I'm writing this for Tumblr, not as a thesis so I will be a bit more casual but still using sources. To me, it's very obvious that he was uncomfortable throughout the text simply based on the language that is used. But it's very subtle and not an outright statement of "He's been crying every day."
BTW, just so we're clear, this is not a "Circe is the root of all evil, etc." type of post.
This isn't meant to villainize her. She's an immortal being and in mythology that changes things. Everybody is morally gray. I genuinely think if we were to ask her feelings on it, she'd probably be like "Oh, yeah! Turned his men into pigs! Strange little man he was." I don't think she gave a flying fuck.
I just simply get pissed tf off when people think Odysseus was fine. It honestly disturbs me how often I'll go on other websites YouTube and see everyone call him a whore and a womanizer. It's sexism at its finest because 1.) "MaN AlwAyS wAnTs sEx" and 2.) women can't rape/coerce. THIS IS SIMPLY TO LOOK INTO HIS FEELINGS ABOUT IT.
This is also only for Homer's Odyssey, using different translations. If you want to discuss this, (I'd be happy to! Just be nice!) DON'T BRING UP ANY OTHER WORKS.
With all that out of the way, come yell with me 🤗
I've read multiple translations, as I know there's going to be bias depending on who's translating. And having done so, each one has basically the same situations described the same so that's nice for consistency. Also, there are some parts in the story that are vague and that we'll never have answers to.
Odysseus first simply sees the smoke from her chimney and then sends his men in, after drawing lots Eurylochus leads half of the men to check out the house. I mentioned here vaguely how the 2 immortals he sleeps with are both introduced while singing and weaving, which could be seen as an enchantment (which to me is most likely. They both possess magic and are goddesses). So I'm just gonna move past that. Just take a peek and come back or just know that enchantment was likely.
Next, I'll see people often joke on Tumblr about how
"Odysseus says that Polites is his best friend yet only mentions him once!"
I think Odysseus mentions his best friend, the one to jubilantly go in first, to show WHY he would go through with this. How much these comrades mean to him. That's his best friend, and there are approximately 20 others who are now pigs as well. Could you knowingly leave one of your best friends to live a life like that knowing you could've done something?
[...]Circe—and deep inside they heard her singing, lifting her spellbinding voice as she glided back and forth at her great immortal loom, her enchanting web a shimmering glory only goddesses can weave. Polites, captain of armies, took command, the closest, most devoted man I had: ‘Friends, there’s someone inside, plying a great loom, and how she sings—enthralling! The whole house is echoing to her song. Goddess or woman—let’s call out to her now!’ So he urged and the men called out and hailed her. She opened her gleaming doors at once and stepped forth, inviting them all in, and in they went, all innocence.
(Fagles, Book 10)
In the Odyssey, it's never mentioned why she turns people into animals. I think they were turned into pigs because, throughout the Iliad and Odyssey, Odysseus is often associated with boars. His men are associated with him, therefore: 🐖 Piggy. From what we know, the lads were just eating her food. With how much Xenia and hospitality are a large part of the story, they probably thought they were safe. They were GUESTS. This is especially welcome after the Cyclops and the Laestrygonians. And it literally says "All innocence". They were simply naive.
Then Eurylochus runs back, so terrified that he couldn't speak at first. He then begs Odysseus to just leave the men behind. Odysseus has shown that he does TRY to save his men when it is truly not reckless to do so.
But I shot back, ‘Eurylochus, stay right here, eating, drinking, safe by the black ship. I must be off. Necessity drives me on.’
(Fagles, Book 10)
Then the famous warning from Hermes. I've seen folks bring this up when talking about this. YES, he is literally commanded by Hermes to not refuse her if he wants his men back in basically every translation. It sounds like Circe was warned as well. When? We don't know, but it sounds like Hermes didn't pick "sides" here.
Strange that he was still like, "Sleep with each other" to both, because he could've been like, "Circe, there's this guy named Odysseus. When he comes to this island, change his men back." But who knows, maybe it was Circe's idea from the beginning and Hermes went along with it. Just food for thought.
Now here’s your plan of action, step by step. The moment Circe strikes with her long thin wand, you draw your sharp sword sheathed at your hip and rush her fast as if to run her through! She’ll cower in fear and coax you to her bed— but don’t refuse the goddess’ bed, not then, not if she’s to release your friends and treat you well yourself. But have her swear the binding oath of the blessed gods she’ll never plot some new intrigue to harm you, once you lie there naked— never unman you, strip away your courage!’
(Fagles, Book 10)
But that doesn't explain why he was there for a year afterward! Nor if he himself was okay with it, which is what I'm trying to delve into as he wasn't.
Also the knife thing? She's still immortal. It was meant to startle her. Her dad is Helios. Odysseus would've been toast, literally.
Also note this exchange wasn't a "Yippee! Hermes says I'm going to get laid!".
...just approaching the halls of Circe, my heart a heaving storm at every step, paused at her doors, the nymph with lovely braids— I stood and shouted to her there. She heard my voice, she opened the gleaming doors at once and stepped forth, inviting me in, and in I went, all anguish now …
(Fagles, Book 10)
Another translation by Ian Johnston, (they all say the same thing essentially but trying to make a point.)
I continued on to Circe’s home. As I moved on, my heart was turning over many gloomy thoughts. After I had walked up to the gateway                                                of fair-haired Circe’s house, I just stood there and gave a shout. The goddess heard my voice.                      She came out at once, opened her bright doors, and invited me inside. I entered, heart full of misgivings.
HE👏WAS👏SCARED! The tone is solemn and suspenseful. He was just told that without Hermes' help with the root, he wouldn't be able to survive and bring back his men. Circe was dangerous.
He made her swear not to harm him.
Straightaway she began to swear the oath that I required—never, she’d never do me harm—and when she’d finished, then, at last, I mounted Circe’s gorgeous bed …
(Fagles, Book 10)
Please note that she NEVER promised that to his men. His comrades did NOT have moli in their systems. He had no way of truly ensuring their safety in any way from Circe.
He then refuses to eat or speak, literally "lost in grim forebodings". If he "just got laid", then why isn't he happy? Not many men can say that a goddess CHOSE to have sex with them. He did it to get his men turned back. It was an exchange. I don't think Circe is "Evil" so maybe it slipped her mind. Or yes, she could've thought, "Hey, I got what I wanted. He's handsome enough. Homer never shuts up about how hot this guy is He hasn't brought up the pigs yet. I'll just let this play out. Maybe HE forgot. I don't have to do anything." We don't know. But Odysseus probably felt like he got deceived.
"Hey, I did my part of the deal. I slept with you. Now do yours."
She pressed me to eat. I had no taste for food. I just sat there, mind wandering, far away … lost in grim forebodings. As soon as Circe saw me, huddled, not touching my food, immersed in sorrow, she sidled near with a coaxing, winged word: ‘Odysseus, why just sit there, struck dumb, eating your heart out, not touching food or drink? Suspect me of still more treachery? Nothing to fear. Haven’t I just sworn my solemn, binding oath?’
So she asked, but I protested, ‘Circe— how could any man in his right mind endure the taste of food and drink before he’d freed his comrades-in-arms and looked them in the eyes? If you, you really want me to eat and drink, set them free, all my beloved comrades— let me feast my eyes.’ So I demanded.
(Fagles, Book 10)
He doesn't trust her despite what she had told him that he should when they sleep together. He has figured out that while she will not hurt him, his men were not a part of that oath, the men he was trying to protect in the first place.
She is then moved by how they rejoice when they see one another again. While turning people into animals for funsies isn't cool and coercion is fucked up, I think she comes to see this group as not quite friends but I think she did find them entertaining in a way.
This is very strange but I've seen some folks say that since Odysseus was pissed at Eurylochus for still not believing him about Circe is proof that "Oh he was trying to defend her!". Which??? Uh, Eurylochus was literally questioning his leadership as a whole. Calling him reckless and shit. He is captain and he's the King, he can't let that shit slide. The text literally says "Mutinous". Also if I had to sleep with someone I did not want to especially if it was to save my friends and I got called names afterward I'd get fucking pissed too.
Only Eurylochus tried to hold my shipmates back, his mutinous outburst aimed at one and all: ‘Poor fools, where are we running now? Why are we tempting fate?— why stumble blindly down to Circe’s halls? She’ll turn us all into pigs or wolves or lions made to guard that palace of hers—by force, I tell you— just as the Cyclops trapped our comrades in his lair with hotheaded Odysseus right beside them all— thanks to this man’s rashness they died too!
They stay a year. Again it's never stated that Odysseus slept with her that whole time. You could interpret that. (Honestly, I feel Circe would get bored with him? She's a goddess, she's got more important matters than mortal men. And she definitely doesn't love him.)
His men DO have to bring it up that "Odysseus has forgotten his native land." Maybe they thought they could sneak out without her knowing??? I am fucking REACHING but hold on as Telemachus did because he knew Nestor would well, be Nestor and try to coax him with "Have a meal with us! Let me tell you about how badass I used to be in my youth." But to sneak away from a goddess? Without her permission? That won't end too well. Aeolus in the beginning kicked out Odysseus when he tried to ask for another bag of wind. If she didn't want him around, she could literally boot him out. While she didn't force him to stay like Calypso did, she didn't "release" him either.
We don't know if they've been asking for a long time. Odysseus does say to Circe that they have been begging him nonstop, but he could also be saying that to try and convince her. He's good at persuasion. I think while he knew he could rely on her for food, shelter, and good advice, he still didn't feel...SAFE with her. I think he was possibly avoiding her personally.
I think HOW he asks her to leave is important to know as well.
...but I went up to that luxurious bed of Circe’s, hugged her by the knees and the goddess heard my winging supplication: ‘Circe, now make good a promise you gave me once— it’s time to help me home. My heart longs to be home, my comrades’ hearts as well. They wear me down, pleading with me whenever you’re away.’
(Fagles, Book 10)
Throughout all of Homer's works, the characters grasp another's knees when they are desperate and are literally at the other person's mercy. Priam did when begging Achilles for Hector's body back. The man who literally killed his son and was defiling his body by dragging it around. Leodes grabs Odysseus' knees to beg for his life before Ody kills him. If he saw her as a friend, and not a captor, WHY DID HE FEEL THE NEED TO BEG IN ORDER TO LEAVE?! No one, who is in a healthy relationship, has to BEG for permission to leave. Or to "Break up", if you interpret them as still sleeping together.
And even Circe acknowledges that he is there against his will!
‘Royal son of Laertes, Odysseus, old campaigner, stay on no more in my house against your will.
(Fagles, Book 10)
[...]Odysseus, man of many resources, scion of Zeus, son of Laertes, don’t stay here a moment longer against your will
(A.S. Kline, Book 10)
This is probably another reach that you can ignore but the whole "they wear me down", could be trying to appease her. "Look, you're REALLY cool, it's actually my crew that wants to leave hahahah please don't kill them"
I mentioned before how Telemachus snuck away from Nestor but that was simply out of necessity because he needed to go home now. Not rest for the night. NOW. Nestor is just everyone's grandpa. Menelaus kind of talked more but Telemachus is very straight up in "Please I have to go now" and Menelaus immediately got things ready for him. He never has to beg and clasp his knees. Telemachus was never afraid. Menelaus is a fun uncle and Helen is your cool auntie.
Back to Circe! She tells him instructions for the underworld, they were in her bedroom. But that might've been the only way to speak with her. As even Penelope is usually away from the suitors when they are in her halls, Circe may have done the same. The text never states she played hostess physically. If she was hosting in the halls during the day, why did Odysseus wait until night to talk to her? He could've just asked her while she was on her throne in front of everyone. (He did so with the Phaeacians)
Or maybe he went alone because she only swore an oath to not harm him and so he didn't want his men near if she decided she didn't want to let them go. I could be missing something here so feel free to say something. Idk if this was a pride thing on how "I don't want others to see me beg".
She has info he needs in order to go home as well. She tells him to go to the Underworld.
She gave him new fine clothes and put on pretty clothes herself but that doesn't mean they had sex. Nausicaa gave him nice clothes as well but he never slept with her.
Then he leaves. Immediately. Not even doing a headcount as he didn't realize one of his men had died. (That was negligence on his part but he wanted out) He booked it, to the UNDERWORLD BY THE WAY. Circe even had to sneak the animals he needed for the sacrifice. Odysseus even basically said "She's a goddess. She can do things mortals can't" at the end of the book. And it almost feels...Numb? Solemn? Neutral? Gives a "It is what it is" vibe.
But Circe got to the dark hull before us, tethered a ram and black ewe close by— slipping past unseen. Who can glimpse a god who wants to be invisible gliding here and there?
(Fagles, Book 10)
She’d slipped past us with ease, for who can see a god move back and forth, if she has no desire to be observed?
(Johnston, Book 10)
She's a goddess. She has magic. She can do whatever the fuck she wants.
NOW ON TO BOOK 12!!! That was long! GET A SNACK AND WATER! LUCKILY THIS'LL BE SHORTER!
In Book 11, Odysseus swears, upon all his loved ones in Ithaca, to Elpenor that he'd give him a proper burial as he's been "unwept, unburied". So in Book 12, he sails back to Aeaea to fulfill his promise.
But you know what's funny to me?
He didn't tell Circe he was there.
He didn't even go to greet Circe himself. He sent his men to go get Elpenor's body.
The biggest clue that he didn't love/trust her is that if she was his "Affair partner" then why not go see her for "one last night together"?
SHE came out herself and pulled him aside to know what happened and then gave more advice.
I dispatched some men to Circe’s halls to bring the dead Elpenor’s body. [...]
Nor did our coming back from Death escape Circe— she hurried toward us, decked in rich regalia, handmaids following close with trays of bread and meats galore and glinting ruddy wine. [...]
But Circe, taking me by the hand, drew me away from all my shipmates there and sat me down and lying beside me probed me for details
(Fagles, Book 12)
In every translation, it talks about how he sits, and she lounges/lies down. That's not sex 🙃 In some translations, it even says he tried to be with his shipmates but she pulled him away!
So we lay down and slept beside our ship’s stern cables. But Circe took me by the hand and led me away, some distance from the crew. She made me sit, while she stretched out beside me on the ground. 
(Johnston, Book 12)
Then, she gives advice about the sirens, Charybdis, Scylla, and her father's Cattle. He tries to ask if he could save all his men. She scolds him for even thinking he could try. He again books it out of there.
I think we all know it wasn't "love". But I think a lot of people think Odysseus was willing and happy with whatever this was. "Friends with Benefits", if you will. I guess you could see it that way but I will say that makes me feel itchy with the whole power dynamic and fear. I don't think folks who have that arrangement have to beg on their knees to ask if they can leave though.
I mean the entirety of Book 10 gives me the vibes of "Laughing uncomfortably because you don't want to upset the other person". To just grin and bear it.
A lot of this was just putting the text here and picking it apart step by step. What you do with this is up to you. It's rambling while banging pots and pans together.
Maybe you see him as drugged the entire year and still sleeping together, as the moli "wore off". Even then, just because her magic can't affect him, there are plenty of natural concoctions that can be created that can affect mortals.
Maybe you see the entire year as sex work in exchange for shelter and food.
Maybe he was just alongside his men the whole time under her roof and was avoiding her after the exchange. After he got asked by his men to finally leave, he would start to walk up to that room only to freeze and turn around, thinking "One more day won't hurt. Should wait until I know she's in a sympathetic mood".
I beg of you, however, PLEASE understand that there was fear and coercion throughout his entirety on Aeaea. He wasn't staying to get laid. While there is so much going on and too many things that are left vague to really know exactly what happened, it is consistent that he was scared/numb. Lots of people go through with things they don't really want to do just to appease others. There are plenty of situations of sexual trauma where one person goes through something and the other has no idea the other person isn't okay. ESPECIALLY WHEN SOMEONE CAN HARM THE PEOPLE YOU CARE ABOUT AT ANY MOMENT!
Sexual trauma is a very complicated thing and while he was scared, he definitely wasn't as traumatized by her as he was by Calypso. Calypso was a torturous hell while Circe was a year of walking on eggshells. Not comparable but I still think it should be acknowledged. It's wild because I read the Odyssey and kept thinking "Y'all are calling the sex slave a cheater? The guy who slept with a goddess to get his men back? The ultimate simp apparently doesn't love his wife??"
Things I'm adding that shouldn't affect the argument as it is not in the Odyssey but I want to mention as it's a "fun fact": Odysseus' dad was an Argonaut. Laertes probably met Circe as well, (or knew of her) with the whole purifying thing and maybe Odysseus heard his dad tell stories of her. Later myths also have Circe with the habit of turning her crushes (or their lovers) into something with Scylla and Picus.
In conclusion, Yeah, he was afraid of her. At least to an extent. And don't pull the whole "Ancient men didn't get raped". Male victims exist and deserve compassion for what was done to them and women are capable of sexual abuse. If you think otherwise, you are not a true feminist and Fuck you. I said in the beginning this'll be casual and I don't wanna write a fancy ending. You can still think Circe is neat but you have to know that this was fucked up.
If you think a lot of this is bullshit or wanna give more context or wish to yell with me but still know he wasn't alright on Aeaea, cool. If you want to point out mistakes or something I should keep in mind with interpretations then feel free to say so but give text evidence. If you try and bring up the Telegony and/or Madeline Miller's Circe, fuck clean off. This is Homer. If you call Odysseus a whore and not the malewife he canonically is I'll start biting. 😤
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chthonicgodling · 7 months
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in honor of…. eve of certain show. spotlight shoutout to OUR special darling: queen Bitch of Elysium, Loki himself -
...✨✨ooooooo suuuureeeeeee honorary OC at this point lmaoooo✨✨ idc what the rest of you are doing but Elysium!Loki is my pet at least -
(Maci and Tory’s pet maybe, sorry what who said that—)
dont tag this as the M word tyvm. I'M v lucky actually to get to have ✨my own personal L oki✨ to sink my claws into at all times because when things happen LIKE A TV SHOW THAT I ACCUMULATED A LONG LIST OF COMPLAINTS ABOUT I can just. turn around and bury myself deeper in the Elysium sandbox to cope…. Last year was a Low key themed summer for the ol Elysium’verse hahgahah. idk how the rest of you coped jesus christ. rough out there. not for meeee
so fingers crossed Elysium!L survives this new season with minimal claw puncture wounds this time around…. hem hem
anyway I prepped this whole caption basically for an IG drop tomorrow cause no one over there knows anyone’s deal in the Elysium'verse and I like my checklist of basic E!Loki facts i wrote, so here’s that too for YOUR viewing pleasure , activities of e!L have included:
being reluctantly adopted into the palace after a thorough un-villaining (that’s right we did it first!!)
perfecting annoying the hell out of absolutely everyone at all times as a standoffish chaos entity who is somehow ALSO really fucking needy omfg
metaphysically taking control of the entire Underworld to become its magical centerpoint, to get around one single rule . henceforth dubbed Royal Tupperware by Maci & Tory
being the one responsible for finally “killing” Thanatos via EXPLODING HIM INTO CHUNKS
perfecting fighting constantly specifically with his archnemesis Maci to push all of her buttons on purpose for fun - although with whom he’s finally reached some sort of……truce with, lately, finally 💦
over time here collecting back some of his mythological children to live here too! (Vali & Nari, Fenris & Jormundgandr)
and ALSO over time had MORE children with approximately ONE HALF OF EVERY ELYSIUM COUPLE DOWN HERE, from both biological capacities bc E!Loki’s inner anatomy is like a mystery maze pinball machine and honestly as much as he swears otherwise he may have done all of it on purpose
anyway. my dearest. here he is. pet pet pet
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cae-liveblogging · 2 years
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Tmnt 2003 S1 E2
D: "it may not look like much but this tin toy can chomp his way through steel and concrete like Michelangelo through a pizza."
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APRILLLLL!! :D WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING IN THE SEWERS??!?
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Donnie is literally so dramatic
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the intro is distinct but in that same right practically unrecognizable as a tmnt intro besides the fact that they yell "TURTLES" a lot
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thats a lot of TV's
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lol he put out a whole block out of power
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not D and M arguing over the name of the lair
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they're 15 aww
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Raph is so angy
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L: "lets not trash this place more than it already is." fr fr
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do NOT tell raph to take anything slow he will NOT DO IT
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YEEHAW
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Donatello literally invented the flying car huh
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Mikey has a dvd collection aww
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love to see that Baxter Stockman isn't a plain ass white guy like in 87
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it looks like a fucking FurReal Friend
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Donatello looks devastated at this news a la Penelope Scott Rät
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RAPH WHY DID YOU BREAK THE TV?!!?!??
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WHAP 'IM SPLINTER! GET 'IM WITH YOUR STICK
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April is no longer a reporter shes a lab assistant we love women in STEM 💙🧡💜❤️
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"several rats" dude thats like a dozen
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the mouser is goring the rat on live tv
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"you flatter me Miss O'Neil, I like that" shutthefuckupasshole
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he's acting sus but i love how thorough April is like she really loves her job we love women in STEM 💙🧡💜❤️
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SHE KNOWS GET INTO IT MISS O'NEIL
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love how splinter just disarmed raph and he stood there like a moron
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R: "why cant we go topside and show him a little mean and green?"
S: "because i fucking said so you little red bitch"
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🎶BUSTED🎶 how sibling of you
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"I do not tolerate failure >:("
"Thats why you'd make a lousy scientist >:("
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D: "hey guys, I got one working :D" you sure did bud look at it go
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"try not to work too late April you know i dont like to pay overtime" okay girlboss
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one question tho why is she wearing a crop top and baggy pants that just feels so weird yet so cool to me
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she discovers a secret lab, folks
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the mouser can climb walls the mouser can climb walls the mouser ca
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L: "you know what master splinter says, a ninja is always prepared."
M: "I thought that was the boy scouts"
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M: "Next time, lets leave the wall crawling to the dude in the blue and red tights"
L: "you read way too many comic books"
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D: "I shut down its jaw servos. It couldnt even chew through a stick of gum! :)"
the mouser: proceeds to chew through a pipe and also solid concrete
D: :(
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obligatory shot down someones throat while they scream
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M: "guys, you okay!?"
R: *spits water out* "peachy"
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A: "idc how bad the cities rodent problem is. this is serious overkill" you dont fucking say
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ope she activated a motion detector thingy shes fucked
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Stockman: my mouser will make me a very rich and powerful man."
A: "Arent you already a rich and powerful man?" yes but hes a dirty capitalist sellout
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he literally has a button for pulling people out the front window of that observatory window huh
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she lost her lab coat noooooooo
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raph sounds like a gremlin lol
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M: "whoah!rouhbouh-houdini!" (robo-houdini)
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why does mikey talk with a valley accent its so disctracting
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raph really is a maniac huh
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shes gonna attack the mousers with a fire extinguisher. shes gonna extinguish them. -----
nevermind she actually hit it
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RUN BITCH RUUUUNN!
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so THATS how she ended up in the sewers
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girliepop just runnnnn
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✨whoAh✨
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They still kick ass tho
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Donatello is just being a nerd in the middle of a fight dont mind him
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D: "These mousers are incredible! The servo-mechanics, the circuitry, the articulation! :D" he really is in heaven
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y'know what? its only a little off-putting that the turtles dont have pupils or irises
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april faints when meeting the turtles pt. 2 2003 edtlition
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M: "soooo, can i keep her?" ugh
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otvlanga · 3 years
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Teldryn Sero Headcanons 4**
Here I am, creating a whole elaborate sex life for a fictional man again 😌. You may not agree, but this is what it looks like to be at the peak of your life.
I know I said I’d do Miraak before these but I just like Telly too much to wait. Miraak coming soon though. (hehe)
 I’ve given up all motivation to make these sound pretty, they’re unedited and probably sound all over the place but idc. Him sexy anyway. You know what’s below the cut, proceed at ur own risk
I think he’s definitely one of those people that believes there’s a big difference between having sex and ‘making love.’ On days where him and his partner get to indulge in slow, gentle and passionate sex, his entire vibe does a 180. While always appreciative of his partner and their body, during these moments are when he loves to express it the most. Slow, deliberate kisses down every inch of their skin he can reach -- and on every mark, scar or flaw he knows they don’t appreciate as much as he does. He loves to take his time when he has it to spare, and really get them eager while he waits patiently. He teases in a way that makes his partners feel both beautiful and desperate, making them want him while reminding them how much that desire is felt in return. Having him take such a slow and deliberate pace is his way of expressing to his partner what he may not be able to say so articulately with words -- that he loves them and that he’s there for the good and the ‘“bad”’.
You better believe he absolutely loves saying dirty praises into his partner’s ear during foreplay. Likes telling them exactly how good they’re doing and how amazing they’re making him feel. Tells them how great they look sucking his dick, how much he loves the shape of their body and such. His delivery always sounds a bit sarcastic, but it doesn’t mean he’s being any less genuine. ‘If I had known you’d be so good at this, I probably would’ve given you a discount when you hired me.’ Little remarks like that. His partners complimenting and praising him in return will surprisingly make him incredibly bashful, and he’ll likely finish much earlier than he would’ve liked. It may pose a bit of a problem for partners who are very eager in giving praise, but he always makes up for it in other ways. He’ll get a teeny bit frustrated at his partner for messing him up, but it’s never genuine displeasure, and he expresses his appreciation tenfold in return. This mer is always incredibly grateful for some tender care, okay? It’s not often that he gets treated with such gentleness, physically or emotionally. He’s all snark and blades and fire on the outside, but he’s a family-man at heart. He loves his work and staying on the move, but he does have desires to settle down one day, and holds the people he cares for incredibly close and dear to his heart. He may not be the most verbally receptive of compliments, but his partner will certainly know he’s heard them. Compliments relating directly to him get him going much more than compliments about what he’s doing. Telling him he’s going a good job down there doesn’t do much because he knows it and can tell in other ways. But having his partner call him mushy things like beautiful or amazing will make him lose his breath for a moment, and get him blushing like a dork (much to his dismay).
He enjoys risky quickies from time to time, and finds the sight of his partner frantically trying to make themselves look decent afterwards absolutely hilarious. He’s a little bastard, and it’s quite easy to get him all hot and bothered even in less than appropriate places, so it’s not uncommon for him to sneakily pull his partner into some secluded corner to bang one out. “Right now? In a draugr crypt? Eh, why not.” *unzipping sounds* Especially likes to do it right before him and his partner are due to meet with Jarls or other important people, because their ignorance and obliviousness to what him and his partner were just doing in the extravagantly empty library is entertaining to him. Jarl Balgruuf could be drawling on about a bounty or something and Teldryn’s inner monologue is just ‘this moron has no idea I just took my spouse to the cloud district right in his palace lol’
I see him as someone who’s definitely a bit more vocal than most guys. He’s not much for loud or obscene dirty talk outside of foreplay, but he makes a lot of sounds -- especially if his partner decides to kiss or stroke along the edges of his ears.  Likewise he certainly doesn’t mind when his partners crank the volume up a bit, but any sort of excessive yelling or moaning will turn him off. Elves have quite sensitive ears, and he’s more of a visual and touch-based person when it comes to sensory information anyway. He’s much more content with seeing and feeling what effects he has on his partners rather than hearing them. Feeling and seeing his partners quiver above or beneath them, clenching around his cock, grabbing at him and digging their nails into his skin or hair, while he watches them throw their head back -- those are all the best indicators to him that they’re thoroughly enjoying what he’s doing. 
If his partner is someone who has a period, he has no problem with having sex during those days. In fact, he encourages the idea himself. He’s certainly no stranger to blood, and frankly, he doesn’t care that it may be a bit gross and messy. He’s a grown mer, he’s seen quite a few jarring horrors during his life and a bloody towel on the bed certainly isn’t anywhere close to being one. He’s aware that orgasms can help ebb away cramps as well, and would be quite eager to take up the chance to help his partner feel good and relieve their pain. He’s also extra thorough with aftercare afterwards, insistent on helping them get cleaned up and changed -- even helping them bathe if they’d like. If his partner isn’t up sex during their period, he won’t pressure them -- but he’s very clear in expressing the fact that if they change their mind, he’s totally down. 
Though he’s willing to try a lot of things at least once, there are certain things he draws the line at. He doesn’t enjoy slapping or hitting his partners much, and especially doesn’t like insulting or degrading them. No amount of begging and insisting will get him to call them offensive names or hurt their feelings, even if they’re into it. Hitting or insulting them on purpose makes him feel shitty regardless of how much they enjoy it. He’ll be alright with using words like ‘slut’ or ‘whore’ if they want it, but refuses to use anything more offensive than that. He doesn’t like smacking his partners in the face, and doesn’t like them doing it to him either. He has a high amount of respect for his partners, and isn’t comfortable harming them with his hands-- he will spank them if they ask, but that’s it. He doesn’t mind biting them or pulling their hair either, or having them do it to him, since it's not as extreme and he does enjoy being a bit intense. He also isn’t entirely opposed to using knives or blades in the bedroom since they’re his specialty, and he trusts himself not to accidentally sever an artery. He might be able to enjoy feeling his partner tense and shudder underneath him, as she runs a faint line up their back with the tip of a dagger -- or cutting their undergarments off them if permitted.
He probably doesn’t fall asleep right after, but he’s also not really one for pillow talk, either. He’ll pack a pipe with tobacco and smokes a bit, and maybe has a cup of Sujamma if there’s any on hand, and he’s more than willing to share with his partner if they’d like. He has an odd habit of impulsively trying to feed his partners after he fucks them, even though he doesn’t really enjoy cooking. He’ll get up to go wash off, and then come back twenty minutes later with a whole platter of food he got at the inn/tavern, or threw together with what they had packed. Probably pulls the old 'you need to keep yourself nourished after vigorous work blah blah blah' line because he’s secretly riddled with some sort of deeply buried maternal instincts that make him insist they stay healthy and nourished at all times. 
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demanddynamics · 3 years
Text
5 steps for a successful ERP Implementation
Tumblr media
From improved operational efficiency to better scalability, there’s a lot more you can achieve from an ERP implementation.
The cloud ERP market is witnessing high growth in sales & marketing due to the increasing number of digital channels and complexities involved in sales channels. As the numbers suggest, the global market growth for ERP is expected to increase at a CAGR of over 8.1% in the next five years.
Is your business having many stand-alone, home-grown IT systems that are highly customizable and do not communicate with each other?
Is your business subject to manual intervention for activities that no longer needs a human support? Well, then it’s time you make a decision to invest in an ERP system.
Cloud deployment in the recent years has opened the door for fast-growing organizations of all sizes, making ERP software available for big and small companies. So, Investing in an ERP system can help you safe costs, increase your efficiencies and improve your deployment timelines by a significant margin.
In this blog, we’ll touch base on 5 steps for a successful ERP Implementation.
Perform a detailed assessment
The first step you’ll ever have to make in an implementation process is to identify your company needs. Many companies use ERP systems for different purposes, the most common ones being, reduced process time and increased collaboration. So, you can start by documenting key performance indicators you wanted to achieve using the ERP system.
Choose the right technology partner
The most common challenge businesses usually face in the midst of a transition or implementation is, being bombarded with too many solutions. More often than not, if you are unsure about what you want to achieve through the implementation, you end up paying hefty price for technology that has functionality you may not need.
Note: At DemandDynamics, we eliminate the hassle of having to worry about solutions that are not relevant to your business. Our certified experts perform a thorough assessment of your business needs and suggest you what works best to drive maximum ROI. Also, through our ODS model, you only pay for what you use. (No additional costs)
Evaluate your ERP solutions
Evaluating the right ERP solution is often overlooked by business which results in below-par experience for businesses post implementation. While there is a lot of investment going into enhancing the business process, it’s crucial to understand which ERP solution fits the business well in the long-run. Whether it is an on-premise solution or a cloud-based solution, it all depends on your business positioning in the industry. You can ask our ERP consultant/expert for advice.
Cleanse your data
There’s a misconception that implementing an ERP system can improve business conversions in a single go. That’s not true. Remember, the purpose of ERP system is to increase efficiency and productivity. It’s important for you to analyse the data and segregate them for converting them into ERP system.
Go-live and support beyond
Many service providers/implementation partners consider implementation as the finish line. But, the real puzzle starts post-implementation. Two things a business should keep in mind post implementation is to maintain operational efficiency and application environment efficiency. Most of the business critical problem arises due to lack of understanding of how the system works. So, a detailed run-down of what follows post-implementation has to be communicated to the team.
Here are some of the stats from the manufacturing industry:
According to IDC, around 60% of manufacturing industries will need digital platforms that are estimated to enhance their bottom-line by 30%.
In a 2019 survey of distributors and manufacturers, 67% described their implementations as successful or very successful.
This is just the tip of an ice-berg when it comes to implementing a successful ERP solution for your business. At any point of time in your business, if you have experienced operational inefficiencies but have the urge to scale fast and grow quick, our experts are always available to assist you.
0 notes
cathrynstreich · 4 years
Text
The Rise of Automated Property Valuations
[Note from the editor: Below is a sample special business intelligence report, originally published for members of the GEM. Another example of our work is the property management software category product review series for small landlords. — Drew Meyers]
The Rise of Automated Property Valuations
BY ADAM NAAMANI Originally Published: March 24th, 2020
When Opendoor launched in 2014, it brought about a pivotal question: Can you value a house solely on data? My optimism led me to believe it was an inevitability, given the data infrastructure and technology to support the assumption. Even within a relatively short time-frame, the wave of digital innovation has grown exponentially. The International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts that the global Datasphere will swell to 175 Zettabytes by 2025 (1 ZB = 1 trillion GB for perspective), and global spending on AI and cognitive technologies to exceed $50 billion by 2021. It’s imperative we discover new ways to consolidate disparate processes into single platforms.
As the iBuyer business model reinvents how property is transacted online, it brings to light the many iterations of use cases in predicting home prices — traditional collateral estimation within the lending industry, lead generation for real estate professionals, instant estimates on public-facing portals (Zestimate®), and most recently, informing property transactions at scale to bring certainty and liquidity to an increasingly on-demand economy (Opendoor, Offerpad, RedfinNow, Zillow Offers™).
What then is the distinction between an automated valuation model (AVM), broker price opinion (BPO), and an appraisal? How has one evolved, while others appear stagnant? At what point does an AVM substitute or outperform the accuracy of an appraisal to become a proven single source of truth? How do consumers cut through the noise of various ‘proprietary algorithms’ to not be misled with misinformation?
In answering these questions, it would be useful to look at a brief history as well as the current state of the underlying methods in objectively determining market value. In doing so, we can gain a better understanding of how technology can augment or even replicate human cognition, and bring efficiency to an ageing profession.
An Industry in a State of Flux
The two most recognized professional organizations of real estate appraisers are The Appraisal Institute (17,000+ members) and The Appraisal Institute of Canada (5,400+ members). Appraisers in both the U.S. and Canada follow generally accepted appraisal standards as evidenced by the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP or CUSPAP). Educational requirements in some instances include possession of a degree, rigorous curriculum, and mentored experience en route to being designated.
According to the Appraisal Institute,  the number of active members has been declining 3% per year, with more on the horizon retiring en masse (average age is around 50). With a litany of pain points, the industry at large is ripe for disruption — faced with fragmented, outdated, and unnecessarily burdensome regulations.
Antiquated Systems
Federal regulation led to the proliferation of Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs) — a firewall between the lenders and appraisers. Following a bidding process, files are triaged by a team of administrators — a strenuous function that is becoming modernized by companies like Anow and Reggora.
Appraisers may operate independently, and along with private lenders, don’t necessarily need to engage in business with an AMC. The variety of parties involved led to a market that has reached a level of oversaturation, resulting in varying inconsistencies.
Through a myriad of intermediaries, complicated workflows, lack of standards across web portals, and software that isn’t platform-agnostic, appraisers are at the behest of organizations that suffer from layers of excessively complicated administrative procedures.
Signal for Change
There had been debate in the U.S. over the threshold in which mortgages should require a formal appraisal, with a majority already exempt by virtue of being below $250,000 ( a limit increased from $100,000 in 1994). Effective October 2019, the OCC, Board, and FDIC adopted a final rule for the federal de minimis on residential real estate transactions to be raised from $250,000 to $400,000.
“The final rule defines a residential real estate transaction as a real estate-related financial transaction that is secured by a single 1-to-4 family residential property. For residential real estate transactions exempted from the appraisal requirement as a result of the revised threshold, regulated institutions must obtain an evaluation of the real property collateral that is consistent with safe and sound banking practices.”
Since 2017, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been providing mortgage products with low loan-to-value ratios unbound by traditional reporting requirements, placing greater reliance on their in-house proprietary analytics. According to their policies, they even allow unlicensed or uncertified appraisers or appraiser trainees to complete a property inspection. It’s their prerogative to identify eligible properties and offer waivers at the application stage.
Consequently, brand whitespace has encouraged new incumbents to develop alternative forms of estimating market value through evaluations, bifurcated and hybrid appraisals — products designed to significantly reduce friction, turn around times, and cost for lending institutions as these elements become untenable.
Factors of Value
You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know
Beyond one’s own property, there’s always curiosity surrounding what other homes are worth so that more informed decisions could be made. The challenge then is in justifying property values, which are inherently controversial as there is an emotional aspect stemming from bias or lack of insight. It’s common to see lenders and homeowners push back with their own unsubstantiated opinions of value — for example, comparing property types such as a half-duplex in a quiet suburban neighbourhood to a condominium in the Downtown core, or concrete to wood-frame house. There’s an even greater chance of misinterpretation when valuations are displayed on public-facing websites devoid of any reconciliation, as it’s not a matter of what but why.
External obsolescence (privacy, street noise, crime), topology, flood plains, conformity to neighbouring properties (progression, regression), proximity to schools and amenities, title to land, orientation (exposure), lot dimensions, floor level, view obstructions, physical depreciation, functional obsolescence, government policies, and demographics —  representing only a fraction of thorough preliminary research required for a holistic analysis.
Comparables
Sales comparison is easier with properties that are homogenous. A cookie-cutter new construction condominium or rectangular Vancouver Special will often have a wealth of nearly identical sales to compare it to, while a custom-built house in an affluent community might not. If a home falls within typical parameters, the margin of error will generally be lower.
Three or more recent sales of similar properties are collected within 60 to 90 days of exposure in an open market. An appraiser will first attempt to find 1-2 sales in the subject building (if it’s a condo) in accordance with standard lender requirements, moving out to the same street, then to the neighbourhood — expanding the geographical area as necessary.
Conditions of sale, stigmatization, and special assessments are also of concern in the process of elimination to gather arm’s length transactions. After qualitative and quantitative adjustments are made for differences between the subject and comparables, a final estimate of value is weighted towards sales with the least adjustments.
Back to the question at hand…
Is it possible, given the technology at our disposal, to replicate this cognitive process with Neural Networks and derive a property’s fair market value commensurate with its human equivalent?
Data Liberation
With the abundance of property data comes the issue of fragmentation, yet despite its slow adoption curve, is destined for decentralization. Reducing redundancy is akin to the programming principle of DRY (Don’t Repeat Yourself):
“Every piece of knowledge must have a single, unambiguous, authoritative representation within a system.”
– The Pragmatic Programmer
In many an industry, manual filtering, copying and pasting, calculating, and form filling is becoming archaic as more data is made available in a machine-readable format. Performing repetitive, tedious tasks leads to decision fatigue — a most rudimentary use case for offloading to automation. It is not to say the efforts required by human intervention should be undermined, yet its effectiveness is eroded by a high cognitive load and prone to error. Machine Learning correlates large datasets around the clock better than any person ever could, factoring in new data points the moment they are made available with a high degree of granularity.
Open Standards and the API Economy
Open Data portals and RESTful APIs provide necessary access to key datasets like property parcels, tax records, streets, transportation, city services, schools, crime, etc. to facilitate comprehensive research into understanding utility. The City of Vancouver exemplifies how Open Data APIs have evolved, offering a variety of export types according to the JSON Schema vocabulary standard.
As innovation in the vertical flourishes, so too do the need for integration and standardization. Cleaning and labeling big data is no small feat — it’s laborious, expensive, and prohibitively complex. The Real Estate Standards Organization (RESO) created open standards through a Data Dictionary as the industry’s universal language to make access to MLS data easier and more streamlined.
Zillow’s BridgeAPI™ — a combination of their acquisition of Vancouver based Retsly and Bridge Interactive — is platinum-certified by RESO and  provides one of the more modern single point of entry solutions. Its API streamlines the transport process for public and transactional records on 148 million properties throughout the U.S.
Turning Point in Canada
Historical property data had been infamously difficult to acquire, compile, and normalize — hidden behind walled gardens of old. Sold prices and cumulative days on market have for too long been a blind spot to consumers in Canada doing their own due diligence.
Between Canada and the U.S., there had been differing levels of access to property data, until the Competition Bureau was successful in their anti-competition case against TREB; a costly 7-year legal battle to end data restrictions.
“It’s time to move forward, embrace policies that align with the law, and open the door to innovation in real estate services.”
– Matthew Boswell, Interim Commissioner of Competition
Ubiquity of Technology
Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) platforms from Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud have levelled the playing field, with a pay for what you use business model and entry-level tiers to build and scale any project at a fraction of what it used to cost.
Training ML models has never been more approachable — made simple and accessible by open source libraries like NumPy, SciPy, scikit-learn, and pandas — with d3js and Jupyter notebooks for data-driven visualization. SageMaker, AutoGluon, and Tensorflow are toolkits that provide deep learning solutions with only a few lines of code. The development of Neural Networks opens up many use cases applicable to real estate:
Image classification (qualitative analysis)
Object detection (degree of affixation)
Tabular prediction (comparative analysis)
Regression models (predictive analytics)
The Future of Housing
Beyond advancements in property technology software, is the emergence of Smart Real Estate — technology-based platforms that facilitate the operation of real estate assets. Buildings are being fitted with Internet of Things (IoT) sensors able to monitor interior activity, energy efficiency, or eventually much like smart cars, indication for when renovations are required (settling, moisture, building code).
Building Information Modeling (BIM) — digital representation of physical and functional characteristics — is considered one of the top 3 technologies likely to cause maximum disruption according to a 2019 Altus survey with real estate development firms. It’s well-suited towards property valuation, such that creating a ‘digital twin’ could provide real-time access to the most recent version of a survey or floorplan for pre-construction analysis. In combination with LiDAR for 3D models, or drones for geospatial imagery, the integration of technology into the physical world opens up possibilities previously unthinkable.
Power to the People
While not an exhaustive list, the following companies are the most interesting to watch develop. They have the capital, network effects, and greatest potential to revolutionize AVMs:
Zillow’s Zestimate®
At a 4.5% median error rate, half of all Zestimates are within 4.5% of the selling price. To further their efforts, Zillow held a $1 million global data science competition to improve the home valuation, won by a team that hadn’t even met each other in person — a common occurrence in today’s distributed workforce environment facilitated by tools like Github and Slack.
The winning team developed a system that mimicked the neural circuitry of the brain, leading to the building of accurate predictive models to improve the algorithm that changed the world of real estate.
Opendoor
Every 60 seconds, a homeowner requests an offer from Opendoor. That scale is inconceivable without data science and automation. To improve the accuracy of their valuations, Opendoor uses an ensembling approach — building multiple models and computing a weighted average of their estimates. Through hybrid pricing, they use both automated and human-led valuations to scale rapidly while maintaining accuracy.
HouseCanary’s AgileEvaluation™
With four decades of transaction data on 106.5 million homes throughout the U.S., HouseCanary is pioneering modern end-to-end valuations for investors and real estate professionals alike. Their predictive analytics have a Median Absolute Prediction Error (MdAPE) at 2.8% as of July 2019 on 1,994,203 transactions.
Predicting an Uncertain Future
In an on-demand society, customers are trained to expect speed and efficiency. For a capital intensive industry like real estate, cost and scale are among the biggest barriers in achieving widespread adoption of novel technology. As for the appraisal profession, it’s not a matter of advocating that it become obsolete, but how technology can best be incorporated into the trade at a faster rate. Automated valuations bring the promise of reducing friction from the complexity of property transactions — enabling smarter, faster decision-making with unprecedented levels of access to information. Data transparency is becoming the new norm, and as technology rapidly evolves, businesses must adapt to maintain a competitive edge.
Even since I began writing this article, a certain pandemic occurred. The world changed in an instant. What will happen to professions that require entry into a property? Perhaps the sentiment towards privacy will change, as the data collected digitally is considered less of an infringement than a host of people coming through your home. It has never been more critical to accept innovation as the only way forward — case in point as Fannie and Freddie have already begun to adopt alternative appraisals due to the coronavirus. Nearly every stage of a real estate transaction can now happen virtually. That’s profound to even think about when it comes to the world’s largest asset class. The emotion we have tied to our homes carries a value greater than any number could possibly represent, making it infinitely difficult for intelligence in any form to predict with absolute certainty what tomorrow will bring.
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clarencevancleave · 4 years
Text
The Rise of Automated Property Valuations
[Note from the editor: Below is a sample special business intelligence report, originally published for members of the GEM. Another example of our work is the property management software category product review series for small landlords. — Drew Meyers]
The Rise of Automated Property Valuations
BY ADAM NAAMANI Originally Published: March 24th, 2020
When Opendoor launched in 2014, it brought about a pivotal question: Can you value a house solely on data? My optimism led me to believe it was an inevitability, given the data infrastructure and technology to support the assumption. Even within a relatively short time-frame, the wave of digital innovation has grown exponentially. The International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts that the global Datasphere will swell to 175 Zettabytes by 2025 (1 ZB = 1 trillion GB for perspective), and global spending on AI and cognitive technologies to exceed $50 billion by 2021. It’s imperative we discover new ways to consolidate disparate processes into single platforms.
As the iBuyer business model reinvents how property is transacted online, it brings to light the many iterations of use cases in predicting home prices — traditional collateral estimation within the lending industry, lead generation for real estate professionals, instant estimates on public-facing portals (Zestimate®), and most recently, informing property transactions at scale to bring certainty and liquidity to an increasingly on-demand economy (Opendoor, Offerpad, RedfinNow, Zillow Offers™).
What then is the distinction between an automated valuation model (AVM), broker price opinion (BPO), and an appraisal? How has one evolved, while others appear stagnant? At what point does an AVM substitute or outperform the accuracy of an appraisal to become a proven single source of truth? How do consumers cut through the noise of various ‘proprietary algorithms’ to not be misled with misinformation?
In answering these questions, it would be useful to look at a brief history as well as the current state of the underlying methods in objectively determining market value. In doing so, we can gain a better understanding of how technology can augment or even replicate human cognition, and bring efficiency to an ageing profession.
An Industry in a State of Flux
The two most recognized professional organizations of real estate appraisers are The Appraisal Institute (17,000+ members) and The Appraisal Institute of Canada (5,400+ members). Appraisers in both the U.S. and Canada follow generally accepted appraisal standards as evidenced by the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP or CUSPAP). Educational requirements in some instances include possession of a degree, rigorous curriculum, and mentored experience en route to being designated.
According to the Appraisal Institute,  the number of active members has been declining 3% per year, with more on the horizon retiring en masse (average age is around 50). With a litany of pain points, the industry at large is ripe for disruption — faced with fragmented, outdated, and unnecessarily burdensome regulations.
Antiquated Systems
Federal regulation led to the proliferation of Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs) — a firewall between the lenders and appraisers. Following a bidding process, files are triaged by a team of administrators — a strenuous function that is becoming modernized by companies like Anow and Reggora.
Appraisers may operate independently, and along with private lenders, don’t necessarily need to engage in business with an AMC. The variety of parties involved led to a market that has reached a level of oversaturation, resulting in varying inconsistencies.
Through a myriad of intermediaries, complicated workflows, lack of standards across web portals, and software that isn’t platform-agnostic, appraisers are at the behest of organizations that suffer from layers of excessively complicated administrative procedures.
Signal for Change
There had been debate in the U.S. over the threshold in which mortgages should require a formal appraisal, with a majority already exempt by virtue of being below $250,000 ( a limit increased from $100,000 in 1994). Effective October 2019, the OCC, Board, and FDIC adopted a final rule for the federal de minimis on residential real estate transactions to be raised from $250,000 to $400,000.
“The final rule defines a residential real estate transaction as a real estate-related financial transaction that is secured by a single 1-to-4 family residential property. For residential real estate transactions exempted from the appraisal requirement as a result of the revised threshold, regulated institutions must obtain an evaluation of the real property collateral that is consistent with safe and sound banking practices.”
Since 2017, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been providing mortgage products with low loan-to-value ratios unbound by traditional reporting requirements, placing greater reliance on their in-house proprietary analytics. According to their policies, they even allow unlicensed or uncertified appraisers or appraiser trainees to complete a property inspection. It’s their prerogative to identify eligible properties and offer waivers at the application stage.
Consequently, brand whitespace has encouraged new incumbents to develop alternative forms of estimating market value through evaluations, bifurcated and hybrid appraisals — products designed to significantly reduce friction, turn around times, and cost for lending institutions as these elements become untenable.
Factors of Value
You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know
Beyond one’s own property, there’s always curiosity surrounding what other homes are worth so that more informed decisions could be made. The challenge then is in justifying property values, which are inherently controversial as there is an emotional aspect stemming from bias or lack of insight. It’s common to see lenders and homeowners push back with their own unsubstantiated opinions of value — for example, comparing property types such as a half-duplex in a quiet suburban neighbourhood to a condominium in the Downtown core, or concrete to wood-frame house. There’s an even greater chance of misinterpretation when valuations are displayed on public-facing websites devoid of any reconciliation, as it’s not a matter of what but why.
External obsolescence (privacy, street noise, crime), topology, flood plains, conformity to neighbouring properties (progression, regression), proximity to schools and amenities, title to land, orientation (exposure), lot dimensions, floor level, view obstructions, physical depreciation, functional obsolescence, government policies, and demographics —  representing only a fraction of thorough preliminary research required for a holistic analysis.
Comparables
Sales comparison is easier with properties that are homogenous. A cookie-cutter new construction condominium or rectangular Vancouver Special will often have a wealth of nearly identical sales to compare it to, while a custom-built house in an affluent community might not. If a home falls within typical parameters, the margin of error will generally be lower.
Three or more recent sales of similar properties are collected within 60 to 90 days of exposure in an open market. An appraiser will first attempt to find 1-2 sales in the subject building (if it’s a condo) in accordance with standard lender requirements, moving out to the same street, then to the neighbourhood — expanding the geographical area as necessary.
Conditions of sale, stigmatization, and special assessments are also of concern in the process of elimination to gather arm’s length transactions. After qualitative and quantitative adjustments are made for differences between the subject and comparables, a final estimate of value is weighted towards sales with the least adjustments.
Back to the question at hand…
Is it possible, given the technology at our disposal, to replicate this cognitive process with Neural Networks and derive a property’s fair market value commensurate with its human equivalent?
Data Liberation
With the abundance of property data comes the issue of fragmentation, yet despite its slow adoption curve, is destined for decentralization. Reducing redundancy is akin to the programming principle of DRY (Don’t Repeat Yourself):
“Every piece of knowledge must have a single, unambiguous, authoritative representation within a system.”
– The Pragmatic Programmer
In many an industry, manual filtering, copying and pasting, calculating, and form filling is becoming archaic as more data is made available in a machine-readable format. Performing repetitive, tedious tasks leads to decision fatigue — a most rudimentary use case for offloading to automation. It is not to say the efforts required by human intervention should be undermined, yet its effectiveness is eroded by a high cognitive load and prone to error. Machine Learning correlates large datasets around the clock better than any person ever could, factoring in new data points the moment they are made available with a high degree of granularity.
Open Standards and the API Economy
Open Data portals and RESTful APIs provide necessary access to key datasets like property parcels, tax records, streets, transportation, city services, schools, crime, etc. to facilitate comprehensive research into understanding utility. The City of Vancouver exemplifies how Open Data APIs have evolved, offering a variety of export types according to the JSON Schema vocabulary standard.
As innovation in the vertical flourishes, so too do the need for integration and standardization. Cleaning and labeling big data is no small feat — it’s laborious, expensive, and prohibitively complex. The Real Estate Standards Organization (RESO) created open standards through a Data Dictionary as the industry’s universal language to make access to MLS data easier and more streamlined.
Zillow’s BridgeAPI™ — a combination of their acquisition of Vancouver based Retsly and Bridge Interactive — is platinum-certified by RESO and  provides one of the more modern single point of entry solutions. Its API streamlines the transport process for public and transactional records on 148 million properties throughout the U.S.
Turning Point in Canada
Historical property data had been infamously difficult to acquire, compile, and normalize — hidden behind walled gardens of old. Sold prices and cumulative days on market have for too long been a blind spot to consumers in Canada doing their own due diligence.
Between Canada and the U.S., there had been differing levels of access to property data, until the Competition Bureau was successful in their anti-competition case against TREB; a costly 7-year legal battle to end data restrictions.
“It’s time to move forward, embrace policies that align with the law, and open the door to innovation in real estate services.”
– Matthew Boswell, Interim Commissioner of Competition
Ubiquity of Technology
Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) platforms from Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud have levelled the playing field, with a pay for what you use business model and entry-level tiers to build and scale any project at a fraction of what it used to cost.
Training ML models has never been more approachable — made simple and accessible by open source libraries like NumPy, SciPy, scikit-learn, and pandas — with d3js and Jupyter notebooks for data-driven visualization. SageMaker, AutoGluon, and Tensorflow are toolkits that provide deep learning solutions with only a few lines of code. The development of Neural Networks opens up many use cases applicable to real estate:
Image classification (qualitative analysis)
Object detection (degree of affixation)
Tabular prediction (comparative analysis)
Regression models (predictive analytics)
The Future of Housing
Beyond advancements in property technology software, is the emergence of Smart Real Estate — technology-based platforms that facilitate the operation of real estate assets. Buildings are being fitted with Internet of Things (IoT) sensors able to monitor interior activity, energy efficiency, or eventually much like smart cars, indication for when renovations are required (settling, moisture, building code).
Building Information Modeling (BIM) — digital representation of physical and functional characteristics — is considered one of the top 3 technologies likely to cause maximum disruption according to a 2019 Altus survey with real estate development firms. It’s well-suited towards property valuation, such that creating a ‘digital twin’ could provide real-time access to the most recent version of a survey or floorplan for pre-construction analysis. In combination with LiDAR for 3D models, or drones for geospatial imagery, the integration of technology into the physical world opens up possibilities previously unthinkable.
Power to the People
While not an exhaustive list, the following companies are the most interesting to watch develop. They have the capital, network effects, and greatest potential to revolutionize AVMs:
Zillow’s Zestimate®
At a 4.5% median error rate, half of all Zestimates are within 4.5% of the selling price. To further their efforts, Zillow held a $1 million global data science competition to improve the home valuation, won by a team that hadn’t even met each other in person — a common occurrence in today’s distributed workforce environment facilitated by tools like Github and Slack.
The winning team developed a system that mimicked the neural circuitry of the brain, leading to the building of accurate predictive models to improve the algorithm that changed the world of real estate.
Opendoor
Every 60 seconds, a homeowner requests an offer from Opendoor. That scale is inconceivable without data science and automation. To improve the accuracy of their valuations, Opendoor uses an ensembling approach — building multiple models and computing a weighted average of their estimates. Through hybrid pricing, they use both automated and human-led valuations to scale rapidly while maintaining accuracy.
HouseCanary’s AgileEvaluation™
With four decades of transaction data on 106.5 million homes throughout the U.S., HouseCanary is pioneering modern end-to-end valuations for investors and real estate professionals alike. Their predictive analytics have a Median Absolute Prediction Error (MdAPE) at 2.8% as of July 2019 on 1,994,203 transactions.
Predicting an Uncertain Future
In an on-demand society, customers are trained to expect speed and efficiency. For a capital intensive industry like real estate, cost and scale are among the biggest barriers in achieving widespread adoption of novel technology. As for the appraisal profession, it’s not a matter of advocating that it become obsolete, but how technology can best be incorporated into the trade at a faster rate. Automated valuations bring the promise of reducing friction from the complexity of property transactions — enabling smarter, faster decision-making with unprecedented levels of access to information. Data transparency is becoming the new norm, and as technology rapidly evolves, businesses must adapt to maintain a competitive edge.
Even since I began writing this article, a certain pandemic occurred. The world changed in an instant. What will happen to professions that require entry into a property? Perhaps the sentiment towards privacy will change, as the data collected digitally is considered less of an infringement than a host of people coming through your home. It has never been more critical to accept innovation as the only way forward — case in point as Fannie and Freddie have already begun to adopt alternative appraisals due to the coronavirus. Nearly every stage of a real estate transaction can now happen virtually. That’s profound to even think about when it comes to the world’s largest asset class. The emotion we have tied to our homes carries a value greater than any number could possibly represent, making it infinitely difficult for intelligence in any form to predict with absolute certainty what tomorrow will bring.
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shakemktg · 7 years
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Get To The Heart Of What Your Buyers Want
By: Stacey Danheiser
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As a B2B Marketing consultant, one of the questions I get asked most frequently is “how can I really know what my customers care about?” And, my answer is always the same — please do your research. If there’s one thing that has always confused me, it’s why businesses choose to skip doing market research. Maybe they find the task too time-consuming, or perhaps they think they already have all the answers. But this is a recipe for failure. According to surveys, only 41% of marketers even include market research in their budgets. Is it any wonder then that 58% of deals end in ‘no decision’? Or that only 30% of marketers claim to be “very effective” at content marketing?
Lack of proper research not only turns out to be a costly mistake (a whopping $958 million is wasted on ineffective marketing every year) but also cripples a company’s growth and success. I’ve covered four major risks associated with not doing your research in one of my previous posts. In this article, we’ll look at the brighter side of doing market research and how to get there.
Advantages of Doing Customer Research
Research doesn’t have to be a complicated, time-consuming and expensive process as many fear it is. And if you get it right, the upside is huge. Here are some of the key benefits your business experiences when you plan your processes based on thorough research.
Better reputation and more trust from prospective buyers.
Today, it’s not easy to gain the trust of your prospects. And if you fail to do so, you can be sure of one thing — sooner or later you’ll be pushed into obscurity by businesses that have earned that trust.
A company’s thought leadership has a tremendous influence on how customers perceive them. A recent survey reveals that 63% of business decision makers consider thought leadership as a critical factor in their vetting process. But how do you ensure that your thought leadership helps build trust and reputation? 79% of CXOs believe that the most effective thought leadership is the one that addresses the issues they would be interested in. That’s where customer research comes in handy. Done right, customer research equips you with the knowledge of what your buyers are interested in and what they really care about. This lays out a solid foundation for building your thought leadership strategy. Decrease in losing to competitors or ‘no decision’. While no one likes to losing out to competitors, ‘no decisions’ are oftentimes more frustrating. No decisions are the biggest dark spots in your sales. They are a huge waste of time, energy, resources, and money; plus, you are left in the lurch about what you could have done better to win the deal. The good news is, you can significantly reduce your no decision rate by investing more time into researching your customer’s purchase behaviors and preferences across every touch point, throughout the buying lifecycle. CSO Insights shows that companies with a thorough understanding of their customer’s “buying process” have experienced a 6.9% drop in their no decision rate. Maximizing your marketing budgets. When you know what your customers need to make a decision, you can focus all of your resources on producing effective content that resonates and helps move the sale forward. To that end, you have to gain a deeper understanding of where your potential customers place their trust, the size of the market for your product or service, and the cost of creating and disseminating the right content. Spend time to research the market to determine what type of communication your target audience is most receptive to and what it would cost to reach them in a way that will move the needle in sales.
Customer Research That Makes a Difference: Where to Start?
Now that you know how critical it is to get to know your customers, let’s talk about the methods you should be using to gather customer intelligence. We’ll split the method into two categories — secondary research and primary research.
Secondary Research - also called "Desk Research"
Secondary research is the collection of existing data and reports, and is where you should start your research. 3rd party Data.
Start by seeing what’s already out there. This includes 3rd party reports, trends and studies. Some of them are free, some of them are not. Many organizations we work with subscribe to analyst reports and databases that are produced by reputable firms. These can be a great place to start because the information is usually higher quality and validated from a reputable “expert”. For example, Gartner, Forrester and IDC are all good sources in the IT industry. Hoovers is also a great source for both industry and company-level information. Internet Research.
General internet searches can also be insightful. Think of different ways that your customers may be asking questions related to your product category. “What is a [product]?” “What are the benefits of [product]?” “What’s the difference between x and y solution?” – move the words around in the sentence and see the results. But don’t stop at the first page of your Google search results. Go to page 2 or 3, as you may find unique or helpful information there. It will also give you an insight into what words and phrases resonate with customers. Quora
Quora, a crowd-sourced Q&A platform — is another great resource where you can see what questions are being asked about your topic and the specific “words” that people are using to ask those questions. (This can also be considered Primary Research if you ask your own question).
Primary Research - also called "Field Research"
Primary research is the collection of new data and information, and can come in many shapes and sizes. Marketing and Sales data.
Looking at your own marketing and sales data can be useful to identify sales patterns, trends related to your products, web interactions, online engagement, customer service complaints, etc. If you are not currently collecting this type of data, it can be a great, low-cost place to start. 1:1 Conversations.
These can be formal or informal. For example, holding a focus group with a moderator and a set of pre-identified interview questions would be a formal collection approach. Personal interviews with an unstructured list questions would be a more casual and informal approach.
How frequently is your marketing team engaging in one on one conversations with your customers? Does your company attend tradeshows, sponsor events or seminars? This is a great opportunity to speak with your customers and prospects directly. But this is also an area that is often neglected. Too many times, I’ve seen marketers miss the opportunity to engage with customers because they aren’t sure how to approach the customer with the right questions. Or worse, they are unprepared to listen, a skill that is completely underutilized in business today.
Here’s a short sample list of questions you should focus on asking your customers to better understand their needs. Note – your questions should be open-ended to prompt the respondent to provide as much detail as possible. 
What are the biggest challenges you’re facing right now?
Where are your biggest opportunities?
Who do you view as our biggest competitor? Why?
If you had to divert all of your resources to one project, what would it be?
Who is generally involved in decisions related to [our product]? How has the buying process changed over the last couple of years?
How does our [product/ company] measure up?
Online Surveys. Do you conduct surveys? This is another easy and cost effective way to gather information from your customers. It can be especially helpful when you are trying to validate new marketing messages or product ideas and content themes or topics that customers may find valuable.
Win-Loss Analysis. Reviewing every sale — whether lost or won — is a great way to know what you may be doing right and what needs to change. To understand why the customer chose (or didn’t choose) your solution, make it a habit to collect valuable customer data and document the critical aspects of every sale to piece together a complete picture of what makes your customers do business with you. Knowing what makes your business tick can be a great way to replicate your wins.
Commissioned Research. 3rd party research companies exist for a reason. The fact is, customers may not tell you the entire truth when asked directly. They may feel uncomfortable sharing negative feedback, and thus, may tell you only what they think you want to hear. Depending on the type of data you are seeking, consider outsourcing your customer interviews to a neutral 3rd party.
In this day and age of shifting loyalties, it’s difficult to win and retain customers if you fail to provide them with a stellar — and consistent — service. In order to do that, you have to know what your buyers really want.
* This topic is covered in depth in my our marketing book, Value-ology: Aligning sales and marketing to shape and deliver profitable customer value propositions.
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