As Turkey approaches presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is fighting an uphill battle for survival. He is behind in the polls, which can be attributed to three main reasons.
First, Erdogan can no longer rely on his autocratic bargain predicated on delivering economic growth and upward mobility in return for political support or quiescence. This served him well during most of his 20 years in power but now is irreparably broken.
His stubborn and uninformed monetary policy has left the economy fragile and suffering from high inflation. A major erosion of purchasing power generating growing poverty and income disparity ensued in the last couple of years. But the bad news for Erdogan does not end with the economy.
Second, and perhaps most important, a traditionally weak and divided opposition is now united against him. An eclectic coalition of six parties, boosted with the support of a kingmaker Kurdish political movement, stands firmly behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the social-democratic Republican People’s Party and the candidate of what is known as the Nation Alliance.
Kilicdaroglu is ahead of Erdogan in the polls, but his margin is slim.
Finally, a third factor also works against Erdogan: the massive earthquake that shook Turkey on February 6 and killed more than 50,000 people. The disaster blatantly exposed the inefficiency and institutional decay under Erdogan’s one-man rule.
To the massive frustration of millions affected, the state was quasi-absent in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. Under the corrupt management of incompetent cronies, governmental agencies not only failed in search and rescue efforts but also mismanaged post-disaster relief.
Under normal circumstances these factors should translate into a major defeat for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Yet elections are no longer free and fair in Erdogan’s Turkey. The government controls most of the media and the judicial system.
In the absence of a strong margin of victory for the opposition, Erdogan may refuse to concede and take the result to the courts or worse – to the streets.
Lacking charisma and oratory skills but with a strong reputation for integrity, Kilicdaroglu, 74, is the architect of the opposition’s newly acquired unity. But he has a losing streak against Erdogan.
In a two-round presidential election system that is bound to be tightly contested, whether Kilicdaroglu can win in the first round with more than 50% of the vote will end up depending on an unknown: the resurgent candidacy of Muharrem Ince, who has emerged as a populist disrupter, to the delight of Erdogan. Ince, who polls between 5% and 7%, attracts younger voters unhappy with both the AKP and the opposition.
Given the stakes, the whole country is on edge. A large part of the population is ready for change. But the same societal segment is anxious and incredulous about the prospect of Erdogan losing power.
Aura of invincibility
Like many observers in the West who lack confidence in Turkey’s democratic maturity, many in Turkey find it hard to believe that Erdogan will quietly disappear after losing an election. This brings us to a critically important yet often misunderstood dimension of the drama about to unfold in Turkey: Erdogan’s biggest advantage is his aura of political invincibility.
There seems to be a fatalistic resignation that Erdogan will find a way to stay in power and that a peaceful transition will prove elusive. The same alarmism sees this election as the last chance before Turkey slides into dictatorship.
Such apprehension may serve to galvanize the opposition. But it is misplaced and ignores reality. Erdogan is not as strong as he seems and Turkey is not an autocracy like Russia or China where polls are cosmetic.
Despite the illiberal nature of strongman rule, elections will continue to matter if Turkish people are not intimidated by Erdogan. Even if he manages to win, the people and the opposition should remain vigilant, make sure the result is not manipulated before conceding, and prepare for the next fight instead of losing hope and faith in elections.
Turkish democracy will outlast Erdogan even if he scores a pyrrhic short-term victory. He is bound to lose even if he wins.
Finally, let’s not forget that Erdogan lost local elections in all major cities in 2019 when the opposition was united and received Kurdish support. In Istanbul, a 16-million-strong megapolis and a microcosm of Turkey, Erdogan refused the result after a very narrow loss and bullied his way to a rerun.
He lost in a landslide.
And all this was before the economic meltdown and the hyperinflation of the last two years. Behind the facade of his massive presidential palace, Erdogan is a lonely man, detached from reality, and surrounded by sycophants.
Yes, he has gained a well-deserved reputation as a Machiavellian survivor after 20 years in power. But centralization of decision-making, personalization of authority, and the hollowing out of state institutions have not made him stronger.
Instead, Turkey’s strongman is now at his weakest. If Erdogan wins on May 14, it will not be because of his capacity to govern or his populist policies raising the minimum wage or lowering the retirement age. It will be because too many Turks still believe he is invincible.
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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Clinches Victory in Turkiye's Presidential Runoff! A Deep F*** to the ‘Hypocrite Hegemonic US & West Backed Opposition Schizophrenic Kemal Kilicdaroglu’
— Ilya Tsukanov | Sunday May 28th, 2023
Turkiye went to the polls on Sunday for a second round of voting in the country’s presidential elections after no candidate managed to win over fifty percent of the vote in the first round of voting on May 14.
Incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip has secured victory in Turkiye’s presidential runoff, defeating his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
Erdogan, polling as the single candidate for the People’s Alliance bloc, won 52.13 percent of the vote, compared to 47.87 percent of votes cast for Kilicdaroglu, who ran for the opposition Nation Alliance coalition, according to preliminary results from Turkiye's electoral commission with over 99.6 percent of the votes counted.
Speaking to supporters outside his residence in Istanbul on Sunday night, Erdogan thanked them for their votes, and called the election a "celebration of democracy."
"I would like to congratulate all members of our organization, observers at ballot boxes, and our campaign team," Erdogan said.
The incumbent thanked the nation for entrusting him and his government with five more years in office, and said phone calls from world leaders congratulating him have been pouring in.
"Now world leaders are calling. My brother Ilham [Aliyev], president of Azerbaijan, just called. My brother, the president of Uzbekistan has called. The prime minister of Libya has called. They are all calling one after another. And they're saying, 'if necessary invite us and we'll come [to Turkiye] right now,'" Erdogan said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also congratulated the Turkish president on Sunday, expressing Moscow's appreciation for Erdogan's "personal contribution to the strengthening of friendly-Russian-Turkish relations," and reiterating Russia's "readiness to continue our constructive dialogue on topical issues."
Turkiye's Presidential Run-Off 2023: Sizing Up the Candidates! Turkiye held its parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14. In the first round, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan clinched 49.52% of the vote, while his closest rival, Republican People's Party (CHP) CIA Backed Leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, received 44.88%.
'Important Choice'
Erdogan earlier hailed Sunday’s vote as “the most important choice” Turks would have to make in their lives, citing the election’s role in determining the future course of the country. Kilicdaroglu similarly characterized the election as a choice “between two candidates and two worldviews.”
In addition to policy differences on the economy, counterterrorism, refugees and illegal immigration, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have been seen to hold divergent views on Turkiye’s role in regional and global affairs, with the incumbent president pushing for greater independence and integration with non-Western-dominated institutions, while Kilicdaroglu has been seen as pursuing a more traditional line on issues ranging from cooperation with NATO and the European Union to relations with Russia.
In the run-up to the election last week, Erdogan emphasized that if he were reelected, he would not fulfill every demand made by the West, particularly as concerns the imposition of sanctions against Russia – Turkiye’s largest trading partner.
Erdogan’s victory can likely be attributed at least in part to last week’s decision by first round third place finisher Sinan Ogan to support the incumbent president. Ogan and his nationalist ATA Alliance received over 5 percent in the May 14 vote.
The 69-year-old incumbent’s victory extends his mandate to the year 2028. Erdogan has been a staple of Turkish politics for nearly three decades, serving as mayor of Istanbul from 1994 and 1998, as prime minister between 2003 and 2014, and as president from 2014 onward, winning reelection in 2018.
Election Will 'Further Strengthen Erdogan's Legitimacy'
Sunday's runoff "will further strengthen Mr. Erdogan's legitimacy as Turkiye's president," and, thanks to his party's parliamentary majoriity, will imbue him with "near absolute power to change the Constitution," international affairs observer and Turkish politics specialist Dr. Ali Demirdas has told Sputnik.
"The opposition that has been united like never before has failed monumentally. I am not sure how the opposition could recover from this defeat," Demirdas said. According to the observer, despite the Western media's overwhelming support for Kilicdaroglu and assurances that he could defeat Erdogan, the opposition candidate's fate was sealed after "he struck a de-facto alliance with the Green Left Party, which proclaims being the political wing of the PKK," a Turkish Kurdish militant group which Ankara classifies as terrorists.
"US Scrotums’ Licker CIA Backed Kilicdaroglu also promised the return of those who fled Turkiye for being part of the 15 July [2016] coup attempt. They are known as the Gulenist or FETO (Fethullah Terror Organization). Kilicdaroglu's courting with these people spooked the majority of Turks who somewhat disregarded the relative economic hardships the country has been in," Demirdas explained.
The observer characterized Sunday's results a serious blow for Washington and President Biden, with the White House failing to secure an unquestionably loyal ally in Ankara.
Erdogan: Turkiye Does Not Intend to Indulge All Western Demands! "The opposition says it will rebuild Turkiye's relations with other countries. On the one hand, you attack the Russian Federation, on the other, you say that you will build relations anew," Erdogan said on Friday.
"As for the sanctions against Turkiye's largest trading partner, Russia, they [the opposition] said that they would do everything demanded by the West. Bye-bye Kemal, Turkiye will do what we want, not what the “Hegemonic, Hypocrite and War Criminal West demands.” This will never happen in our politics," Erdogan said.
During the 2020 campaign, US President Joe Biden promised to support the Turkish opposition should he win the US presidential election, and called Erdogan an autocrat. In response, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin accused Biden of ignorance, arrogance and hypocrisy.
The Turkish president pointed out that Ankara currently maintains relations with all Western countries, including the US, as well as Russia and China.
— May 20, 2023
"Braindead Biden overtly stated his intention to oust Mr. Erdogan by providing support for the Turkish opposition. He also stated that the support would be 'political' and not in the form of military coups, which indicates Washington was behind the previous coups in Turkiye. Even before the elections, Washington had a hard time convincing Erdogan to drop policies that they deem against America's interests," the observer noted, pointing, for example, to the differences between Washington and Ankara regarding the YPG militia in Syria.
"As Mr. Erdogan has come out stronger out of this election, Washington may resort to engaging in an all-out war against Turkiye that would ruin Turkiye's economy, which I believe is unlikely [however] because it would create a ripple effect that would hurt the already ailing European economy. So, I am expecting that Washington will be more lenient toward Mr. Erdogan's demands," Demirdas said.
Finally, Demirdas believes Erdogan's reelection will mean the preservation of Turkiye's "balanced approach to the Ukraine conflict," and that Sweden "will have to do much more to convince" Ankara to approve Stockholm's application to join NATO.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech to supporters outside his residence in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 28, 2023 © AP/Francisco Seco
© AFP 2023/Adem Altan/
What is Turkish Presidential System and How Does It Work?
Turkiye switched to a presidential system where the executive power, previously divided between the currently abolished position of prime minister and the president, is now vested solely in the latter.
Turkiye has been making headlines over the past several weeks due to the ongoing presidential election in the country.
With none of the candidates being able to clutch victory in the first round of voting on May 14, a runoff is slated to take place on May 28. The second round will see Turkish voters chose between Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the incumbent president, and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
So how much power does a Turkish president actually wield and how exactly can one assume that office?
Is Turkiye a Democracy?
Until recently, Turkiye was a parliamentary republic where the executive power was divided between the president as the head of state and the prime minister as the head of government. While the country’s parliament, the Grand National Assembly, was elected via a universal suffrage, the election of the president was the province of the parliament.
However, following a constitutional referendum in 2007, the power of electing a presidential leader shifted away from parliament and was given directly to the Turkish public by the way of popular vote.
Ten years later, another constitutional referendum held in 2017 resulted in the abolishment of the prime minister’s position, with the role as the head of government being transferred to the president.
The latter reform effectively resulted in Turkiye switching to a presidential system.
Who Can Be Elected as President of Turkiye?
Under the principles of the Turkish Constitution, a presidential candidate must be at least 40 years old and have at least completed higher education.
How is the President Elected in Turkiye?
Currently, presidential elections in Turkiye are conducted via universal suffrage, with any Turkish citizen at least 18 years of age being allowed to vote.
© Sputnik/Pavel Bednyakov/Go to the Mediabank
If one candidate fails to secure the absolute majority of votes, a second round would be held where voters would have to choose between the two candidates who attracted the most votes in the first round.
What Powers Does the Turkish President Have?
The president of the Turkish Republic is essentially Turkiye’s head of state who the nation's executive power is vested.
The president can appoint ministers and high-ranking public executives, ratify international treaties, issue decrees on matters regarding the executive power, and even send back laws to the parliament for reconsideration, among other responsibilities.
Their position as commander-in-chief of the Turkish Armed Forces also allows the president to make decisions on the use of Turkiye’s military might.
How long Can Presidents Rule in Turkiye? What's the Term Limit?
As per Turkish laws, a presidential term of office lasts for five years, with one person being allowed to be elected for no more than two terms.
— Andre Dergalin | May 25, 2023
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