Daily Wrap Up April 21-24, 2023
Under the cut:
A Russian Sukhoi-34 fighter-jet has accidentally bombed the Russian city of Belgorod, around 40km (25 miles) from the border with Ukraine on Friday. The bomb left a 20m (60ft) crater and caused an explosion so large it blew a car on to the roof of a nearby shop. Three people were injured and several buildings were damaged.
Ukrainian authorities say Russian forces are “forcibly evacuating” civilians in the area of the Kherson region that they still occupy, a day after it was claimed Ukrainian forces had established a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
Ukraine’s military have set up positions on the eastern side of Dnipro river near Kherson city, the Institute for the Study of War reported, citing Russian military bloggers.
Russia on Sunday said its forces had advanced in Bakhmut while a top Ukrainian commander said his troops were holding the frontline through the city, all but destroyed in some of the bloodiest combat of the 14-month war. The Russian defence ministry said its forces had secured two blocks in western districts and airborne units were providing reinforcements to the north and south. Russia sees Bakhmut as a stepping stone to more advances in eastern Ukraine.
Moscow is threatening to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, viewed as critical to addressing the world hunger crisis, if the Group of Seven nations ban exports to Russia.
Russian troops shelled the village of Shakhtarske in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast on the morning of April 24, reported the regional prosecutor's office. Two men aged 43 and 66 were killed in a house's yard, and their neighbor suffered shrapnel injuries, according to the prosecutors.
A Russian Sukhoi-34 fighter-jet has accidentally bombed the Russian city of Belgorod, around 40km (25 miles) from the border with Ukraine.
The bomb left a 20m (60ft) crater and caused an explosion so large it blew a car on to the roof of a nearby shop.
Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said authorities had ordered the evacuation of a damaged nine-storey block of flats as a precaution.
Three people were injured and several buildings were damaged, he said.
Video posted on social media showed the impact of the blast, lifting a vehicle on to the roof of a supermarket as traffic streamed along Prospekt Vatutina, close to the centre of the city.
In a brief statement, the Russian defence ministry admitted that one of its Su-34 fighter bombers had "accidentally discharged aircraft ordnance" at 22:15 local time (19:15 GMT) on Thursday.
It was a bureaucratic way of saying that the jet had mistakenly fired a weapon. It didn't specify which one.
The bomb landed at an intersection of two roads not far from the city centre and next to residential buildings.
Two women were taken to hospital for treatment, according to the governor. But with a Russian bomber hitting a busy residential district the consequences could have been far worse.
"Thank God no one was killed," he said on social media.
-via BBC
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Ukrainian authorities say Russian forces are “forcibly evacuating” civilians in the area of the Kherson region that they still occupy, a day after it was claimed Ukrainian forces had established a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
“I have information that the evacuation starts today [Sunday] with an excuse of protecting civilians from the consequences of heavy fighting in the area,” Oleksandr Samoylenko, the Ukrainian head of Kherson’s regional council, said. Russian troops were “trying to steal as much as they can” as they withdrew, he added.
The claim cannot be verified, but it comes amid an apparent increase in Ukrainian military activity in the south of the country which some analysts have interpreted as a potential precursor to Kyiv’s long anticipated counter-offensive.
Serhiy Khlan, another Ukrainian official in Kherson, said over the weekend that Wagner group fighters were helping Russian occupation officials impose control over the civilian population on the east bank of the Dnipro.
Ukraine’s southern military command meanwhile reported airstrikes in Kherson region by four Russian Su-35 jets. Ukraine said buildings were hit with guided bombs, but did not specify the location of the strikes.
Attention has focused on Ukraine’s southern front around the key city of Kherson since Sunday’s report from the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based thinktank, which suggested Ukrainian forces had established positions on the east bank of the Dnipro, opposite Kherson in the area of a settlement called Dachy. The ISW made the claim after geolocating reports from Russian sources.
Analysts at the thinktank came to the conclusion after examining text messages and photos posted by “Russian military bloggers”.
The ISW also suggested Russian forces may no longer control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers, less than 500 metres north of Dachy.
The apparent Ukrainian progress follows months of low-level conflict in the Dnipro delta and along the Kinburn spit, a narrow sandy peninsula. Both sides have deployed crews in rigid inflatable boats in often unreported fights over the small islands that dot the river mouth and surrounding marshes.
The handful of reports that have emerged since the beginning of the year about the delta have painted a picture of bitter fighting for small and mainly uninhabited islands, some of which have changed hands several times. With the islands and the river threatened by artillery strikes from both sides, Russian and Ukrainian forces have lost boats in the fighting.
The Ukrainian military has asked for “patience” on reports of a possible offensive. A large-scale advance over the wide river under the threat of Russian strikes would be a large and difficult undertaking.
“The conditions of a military operation require silence until it is safe enough for our military,” a Ukrainian military spokesperson said, adding she could not confirm or deny the ISW’s report.
The reports of a potential Ukrainian advance in the south come nearly six months after Ukraine liberated Kherson city and the west bank of the Dnipro in November 2022.
According to the ISW’s most recent update, Kherson may be the most vulnerable area of Russian occupation along the long frontline.
“The Russian grouping in Kherson oblast is likely the most disorganised and undermanned in the entire theatre, highly likely mainly comprised of badly under-strength remnants of mainly mobilised units,” the thinktank said.
Speculation over Ukrainian advances in the south came as Russian authorities said they had repelled a drone attack on the port of Sevastopol in Moscow-annexed Crimea, adding that there was no damage or casualties.
It also came as audio emerged of the head of the Wagner mercenary group threatening to kill Ukrainian prisoners of war. Yevgeny Prigozhin was reacting to a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel posting of an alleged recording of what it said were two Ukrainians deciding to shoot a Russian prisoner of war.
The channel did not say where the recording came from and there is no way of verifying its authenticity.
“We will kill everyone on the battlefield. Take no more prisoners of war!” Prigozhin said in an audio recording on Sunday “We don’t know the name of our guy shot by Ukrainians,” Prigozhin said, adding that under international law his group was obliged to “take care, treat, not hurt” any prisoners of war.
-via The Guardian
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Ukraine’s military have set up positions on the eastern side of Dnipro river near Kherson city, the Institute for the Study of War reported, citing Russian military bloggers.
Infiltrating the area could be a first step towards trying to dislodge Russians from positions they are using to shell and shoot at Kherson.
The constant attacks have made it impossible for residents to return to normal life, months after Ukrainan troops liberated the city from Russian occupation.
Ukrainian military forays across the river could also mark the first tentative steps towards launching a long-awaited spring offensive.
The think tank said in an update on the war:
This is the first time ISW has observed reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions on the east bank along with multi-sourced Russian reports of an enduring Ukrainian presence there.
The Russian military bloggers said Ukrainian forces had established stable supply lines to their positions and “regularly conduct sorties in the area”, the ISW said.
The reported positions were in marshy territory of islets and tributaries, near the settlements of Oleshky and Dachi, the report said. Russia still holds the settlements.
A Ukrainian military spokeswoman for the southern region declined to comment on the reports that Ukrainan troops had achieved a foothold across the river.
Natalia Humenyuk told TV channel 24:
There is an ongoing military operation that requires informational silence. And when it is allowed we will be sure to notify you.
Government officials and Ukrainian commanders have signalled for months that when the weather and troops are ready, they will try to dislodge Russian forces from the south.
An autumn campaign liberated swathes of northeastern Kharkiv and pushed Russian troops out of Kherson, at the time their last stronghold on the western banks of the Dnipro.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday he is “confident” Ukraine is prepared to retake more of its territory in the next offensive.
-via The Guardian
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Russia on Sunday said its forces had advanced in Bakhmut while a top Ukrainian commander said his troops were holding the frontline through the city, all but destroyed in some of the bloodiest combat of the 14-month war.
The Russian defence ministry said its forces had secured two blocks in western districts and airborne units were providing reinforcements to the north and south. Russia sees Bakhmut as a stepping stone to more advances in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi shared images on the Telegram messaging app of him poring over a map with three other uniformed men, with the caption "Bakhmut frontline. Our defence continues."
"We hit the enemy, often unexpectedly for him, and continue to hold strategic lines," he wrote.
Reuters was unable to verify battlefield reports.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the private Wagner military force which is leading the Bakhmut assault, has claimed 80% control of the city. Kyiv has repeatedly denied claims its troops are poised to withdraw.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to keep defending the city.
"It is impossible for us to give up on Bakhmut because this will [help] expand the battle front and will give the Russian forces and Wagner chances to seize more of our lands," Zelenskiy said in an interview with Al Arabiya news channel published on Sunday.
Also on Sunday, the Russian-installed head of Ukraine's southern Kherson region denied a report by a U.S. think tank that Ukrainian forces had taken up positions on the Dnipro river's eastern bank.
"There is no enemy foothold on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro river … our military completely controls that territory," Vladimir Saldo wrote on his Telegram channel.
Citing Russian military bloggers embedded with Moscow's forces, the Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine had "established positions" on the eastern bank, though it was not clear "at what scale or with what intentions".
Russia withdrew forces from the western bank last year as part of a series of withdrawals that signified a shift in momentum in Kyiv's favour.
Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's southern command, neither confirmed nor denied the report, which she told Ukrainian television foreshadowed "very powerful shelling" in districts around the west bank cities of Kherson and Beryslav.
"Reacting to such information, the enemy has significantly intensified its attacks on the opposite bank," she said. Civilians had been injured and about 30 buildings destroyed, including a school, she said.
-via Reuters
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Moscow is threatening to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, viewed as critical to addressing the world hunger crisis, if the Group of Seven nations ban exports to Russia.
Such a ban could be part of the ever-evolving set of sanctions the allies have leveled against Moscow for its war in Ukraine.
Ukraine normally supplies about 45 million metric tons of grain to the global market every year and is the world’s top exporter of sunflower oil. Together with Russia, it accounted for about one-quarter of global wheat exports in 2019.
On Sunday, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and deputy chair of Russia's security council, implied in a Telegram post that Moscow would answer a new G7 export ban by halting the flow of "goods that are the most sensitive for G7."
Alliance response: The G7 called for the “extension, full implementation and expansion” of the Black Sea grain deal in a statement published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan on Sunday.
Moscow has pulled out of the deal before: Russia had suspended its participation in the UN-brokered agreement in October 2022 after drone attacks on the Crimean city of Sevastopol, Ukraine.
Shipments have been stop-and-start during the deal, with each side accusing the other of sabotaging the operation at times.
Origins of the deal and impact: Turkey, alongside the United Nations, helped broker the deal in July 2022. The agreement established a procedure that guaranteed the safety of ships carrying Ukrainian grain, fertilizer and other foodstuff through a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea.
Under the deal, all vessels coming to and from Ukraine’s ports were inspected and monitored by international teams made up of officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN.
-via CNN
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Russian troops shelled the village of Shakhtarske in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast on the morning of April 24, reported the regional prosecutor's office.
Two men aged 43 and 66 were killed in a house's yard, and their neighbor suffered shrapnel injuries, according to the prosecutors.
Shakhtarske is located in the Volnovakha district, about 75 kilometers from the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk.
Earlier the same day, Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said that Russian attacks had killed two civilians in the region and wounded two more over the previous 24 hours.
Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast bordering Russia is the site of the war's fiercest fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces as Moscow seeks to occupy the entire region.
-via Kyiv Independent
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Едут зэки гнить навеки на Бахмут.
Свистнет пуля, и ни охнут, ни вздохнут.
Лезут в гробики и мобики выносливо,
Дед на кладбище всё строит Новороссию.
Кто в Бахмуте погибает, кто в Авдеевке,
Украинские войска связав с Америкой.
Им так хочется, чтоб погибали с НАТО.
Но плешивый им подстроил брат на брата.
Вот и едут на Бахмут простые зэки,
Лезут в гробики и мобики навеки.
Обереги не спасут, как эти строфы,
От навязанной чекистом катастрофы.
Белгородская народная республика.
Вся надежда на неё сейчас у публики.
Референдум проведут там на брависсимо,
Чтобы стала наконец-то независимой.
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The prisoners are going to rot forever in Bakhmut.
A bullet whistles, and neither gasp nor sigh any longer matter.
Used to climb into the coffins hardy draftees.
Old tyrant builts a New Russia at the cemetery.
Some folks die in Bakhmut, some folks die in Avdiivka,
They linked Ukrainian troops with America.
It’s like folks wanted to die in a fight with NATO.
But the bald tyrant set them up for fratricidal war theatre.
Murderous convicts go to Bakhmut to die.
Jump into coffins draftees having terrible time.
Amulets will not save as well as these stanzas,
From the catastrophe imposed by the chekist mad man.
Belgorod People's Republic folks
Severily punish FSB agents in random.
The referendum will be held there soon after this post,
And they vote to become finally independent.
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Їдуть зеки гнити навіки на Бахмут.
Свисне куля, і не охнуть, ні зітхнуть.
Лезуть у гробики та мобики витривало,
Дід на цвинтарі побудував влаштував Новоросію.
Хто в Бахмуті гине, хто в Авдіївці,
Українські війська пов'язали з Америкою.
Їм так хочеться, щоби гинули з НАТО.
Але лихий їм підлаштував брат на брата.
Ось і їдуть на Бахмут прості зеки,
Лезуть у труни та мобіки навіки.
Обереги не врятують, як ці строфи,
Від нав'язаної чекістом катастрофи.
Білгородська народна республіка.
Вся надія на неї зараз має публіку.
Референдум проведуть там на бравісімо,
Щоб стала нарешті незалежною.
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