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brookheimer · 1 year

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Sorry but can you actually name a single “abortion plot line for the Strong Female GirlBoss character”? Because literally every time pregnancy is introduced for a character that Is Not Really Womanlike, it’s to remind her that she is a Woman and she suddenly discovers that being a Woman means she has to be a Mom and suddenly her life changes

oookay i'm guessing you don't watch a lot of shows about, like, female politicians or businesswomen or something. you asked for a "single one" but just for shits and gigs i'll give you a whole goddamn list.

important to note that a) this isn't to say Women Should Not Get Abortions To Focus On Their Careers or anything at ALL like that, it's literally just proving that there is indeed a pretty fucking prominent trope of Strong Female GirlBoss characters getting abortions, and b) i'm not saying all of these plotlines are bad or poorly handled, but that there is 1000000% a trope of high-powered career women getting abortions, and that trope is only growing with each year. how have you not- ? nevermind. lol. anyways, here are just a few:

amy brookheimer from veep (a plotline so abhorrent it should really count for five)

claire underwood from house of cards

olivia pope from scandal

if you want to go old school, erica kane from all my children in 1973 (sidebar that it was to pursue her career as a model rather than a businesswoman, but it was still framed as a Strong Female GirlBoss move and given that those are your requirements i'm including it)

christina yang in grey's anatomy

diane nguyen from bojack horseman but also not entirely -- she simply doesn't want kids, it's not a girlboss thing. that said she is a Strong Female GirlBoss character who has an abortion and you seem to think those characters don't exist so i'm including her entirely

okay it's late and i'm tired and also you only asked for one so this'll do for now. also like google exists, lol. didn't need to send this strangely aggressive ask implying i don't know what i'm talking about when i've said that i've literally written academic papers on this topic, but thanks anyways i guess! or maybe i'm reading the tone wrong and you're not being condescending you're genuinely asking. in that case sorry if i'm being bitchy and pretend my tone here is really really nice because i genuinely would mean it to be if this sounded more like a real actual question rather than an attempt to prove me wrong or something !!!

and, just for a few more shits and a few more gigs, here are some articles and scholarly papers talking about the weird overrepresentation of Career Women Getting Abortions For Their Careers in television when in reality, that's only the motivation for like 1 in every 5 women who get an abortion rather than fuckin 4 in 5 or something as it is on prestige TV

"Fictional women are much more likely to say that continuing a pregnancy would make it harder them to pursue their education or career dreams, though just 20 percent of women report that those are the reasons they want to have abortions"

from above as well -- "television’s emphasis on women... who want to prioritize their careers or educations" + "these storylines often suggest that it’s impossible to parent and pursue professional ambitions"

there's also the great resource of the abortion on tv and film database if you're actually inclined to look into this

"Most recent abortion plotlines on legal dramas focus on personal stories, specifically the revelation of a past abortion [i.e., The West Wing (2004), Criminal Minds (2008), House of Cards(2015)] and the decision to obtain one [i.e., Third Watch (2000), Boss (2012), Scandal (2015, 2015)]. However, the characters’ personal experiences are often shared within the context of professional and political consequences" (this great research paper has a lot of stuff) --> another from that paper: "when medical and legal dramas tell women’s stories in more detail, they are usually professional lawyers, detectives, and doctors, most of whom are older, white, and career-focused."

well. this is more than you asked for but you sounded so incredulous i couldn't help it. OR in case i read the tone wrong and you're actually just curious then i'm glad you want to learn more and i hope this helped! LOL

#woof #alright guten fucking nacht #lol watch me wake up to asks claiming i'm saying we should have fewer abortions in media or smth. like yall i worked for planned parenthood #during my gap year #what are you on #asks #anon #long post

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livinginsunnyhell · 3 years

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Ask game for fanfic writers! ⌨️🖊📓📝

1. What fandoms do you write for?

2. What pairings do you write for?

3. What is your most popular fanfic?

4. Do you write original stories as well?

5. What fanfic of yours should everyone have read?

6. What is a fandom you will never write for?

7. What is a ship you will never write for?

8. Archive of Our Own, FanFiction.net, Wattpad, Tumblr, etc. which platform do you prefer?

9. What are your favorite fanfics?

10. How do you stay motivated to finish what you’ve started?

11. What’s your longest fanfic?

12. Do you want to break your readers‘ heart or make them laugh?

13. What is your planning process?

14. What have others criticized about your fanfic?

15. OCs or no OCs?

16. Do you use sentence starters, writing prompts and/or fandom headcanons for your fanfics?

17. Do you use/follow advice from writing blogs/posts?

18. What is your favorite writing prompt?

19. Dead or overused tropes?

20. Can we get a list of all of your current available fanfics?

21. What’s your shortest fanfic?

22. Do you listen to music during your writing process? What music do you listen to while you’re writing?

23. Long chapters or short chapters?

24. How many WIPs (work-in-progress) do you’ve got?

25. How many WIPs will you finish?

26. First-person-narrative or third-person-narrative?

27. Do you take requests?

28. I will name you three things (drunk Ian — shared bachelor party — Gallavich): write a paragraph or two!

29. What’s more difficult? Fanfics or original work?

30. What writing software do you use?

31. Do you use beta/sensitivity readers?

32. Past or present tense?

33. Do friends and family know that you write fanfics?

34. How did you find the magical world of fanfics?

35. What is your favorite review?

36. Did you ever delete a work of yours?

37. Did your work ever get plagiarized?

38. Do you partake in any fanfic/writing events? (Big bangs, zines, NaNoWriMo, etc?)

39. Collaborations or working solo?

40. Do you have any rituals before uploading a fic?

41. What is something you don’t like about your writing?

42. Rudest review?

43. Guilty pleasure tropes and scenarios?

44. Does fanart of your fanfic exist?

45. Do fanfics of your fanfic exist?

46. Few long essay reviews or many short reviews?

47. What fanfic of yours is truly underrated?

48. What is your favorite sentence that you’ve used in a fanfic?

49. Where do you draw inspiration from?

50. Can we get a teaser for an upcoming chapter?

(Don't feel obligated to answer. Thought if you're into these kinda things, that'd be a nice ask. ;))

Oh this is so nice!! Thanks for sending this @annansmith

I chose a few of them to do.

1. What fandoms do you write for?

Currently, I’m writing for Shameless (Gallavich) but I’ve written for:

Veronica Mars (LoVe), Veep (Amy/Dan), Arrow (Oliver/Felicity), Once Upon A Time (Hook/Emma), The Old Guard (Joe/Nicky), That 70′s show (Hyde/Jackie), Sons of Anarchy (Tara/Jax), Vampire Diaries (Klaroline), Hart of Dixie (Zoe/Wade), Gilmore Girls (Rory/Jess), X-men (Rogue/Pyro), One Tree Hill (Haley/Nathan), and a few others.

2. What pairings do you write for?

Now I write Gallavich.

But I’d say my top ones I love writing for now (my fanfiction writing has spanned about 14 years) are Dan/Amy, Veronica/Logan, Klaus/Caroline, Mickey/Ian.

3. What is your most popular fanfic?

My most popular fic on Ao3 is The Course of True Love (Arrow) and on FF Of Bloodshed, Babies, and Epic LoVe (Veronica Mars)

4. Do you write original stories as well?

Yes, I do. I’m working on a book, well, two books. But it’s going very slowly. The first is a memoir of my travels from around the world and the second is a vampire urban fantasy one. We’ll see how it goes, but I’d like to finish them by next year and see if I can get them published, but it’s hard so who knows.

10. How do you stay motivated to finish what you’ve started?

Well, recently I’ve really been trying to finish everything I write. I have a lot of WIPs from years and years ago and even within the the last year, so this answer is pretty new. Basically, I focus on one fic at a time and write a little every day to stay motivated. Now, I try to update once a week on a certain day. I think comments/reviews and kudos and people being genuinely encouraging helps though. It’s also what’s gotten me considering finishing my older fics.

11. What’s your longest fanfic?

Of Bloodshed, Babies, and Epic Love (over 165k)

13. What is your planning process?

Now, it’s different. I have a doc of ideas and I wait to see which one I can’t seem to shake. Then I plan out each chapter with a few sentences and I have a list of things I want to focus on in the story. Usually, each story now has a kind of theme to it and a main focus. I sometimes will just want to write a certain situation/scene/focus and the story is born from there. But what really helps is writing down chapter 1, 2, etc. and having a sentence or two for what I want to happen. It doesn’t always go according to plan, but I never get writers block or forget what happened in previous chapters now.

16. Do you use sentence starters, writing prompts and/or fandom headcanons for your fanfics?

Probably a mixture of fandom (or my personal) headcanons. I don’t start with prompts unless it’s a challenge or sentence starters. Usually, I have a scene I already want to write in my head and then I sit down and write it.

17. Do you use/follow advice from writing blogs/posts?

Yes, I’ve read several books on writing. My undergrad was creative writing too, so I learned a lot there. I also follow writing instagram accounts which are helpful. I take everything I learn with a grain of salt and I see what is best for me. The best advice I heard recently was short sentences and so now I’m experimenting with that.

20. Can we get a list of all of your current available fanfics?

There’s a lot from many different fandoms. I used to be on FF.net as Psyc0gurl0 and now I’m ProstheticLoVe on a03. I like writing on ao3 better cause it’s easier and I love the tagging process. Plus the gallavich fandom on there is unreal. So to think about going back to ff.net to finish my WIPs seems like such a process now.

Currently though, I’m writing an Ian’s POV 5 chapter fic called Chocolate. It’s not out yet, but it’ll focus on Ian from 1x06 to 1x09 or so and how his feelings for Mickey change and evolve. It’s the second part to a series called Chocolate and Cigarettes. Mickey’s POV was Cigarettes.

22. Do you listen to music during your writing process? What music do you listen to while you’re writing?

Yes, I listen while writing but I need silence while editing. I have a Love (lol) playlist. It’s basically all the love songs that remind me of couples I ship. So for example, The Acid is in there a lot because their music is great, but also Basic Instinct is so haunting. Overall, I like all music except country, so sometimes I’ll listen to my larger playlists while writing.

23. Long chapters or short chapters?

So this has changed over the years. Initially, I wrote short chapters, then when I got back into fanfiction while writing klaroline they got a lot longer and now it’s just basically where the chapter has a natural ending. So the chapters are between 4 - 10k words depending. I try to get over 4k though. Right now, once I’m done with my current fic, I really want to write something over 100k.

24. How many WIPs (work-in-progress) do you’ve got?

A lot...none in Shameless though. Well, I guess my current one, but I haven’t posted that yet. I’d say I probs have about 10 WIPs spanning different fandoms. I know. But my goal for 2021 is to pick two and finish them.

25. How many WIPs will you finish?

Not all of them. Some of them are from years and years ago. But I’d like to finish the ones that I still get reviews on. So there’s a SOAs fic I want to finish cause that fandom is so lovely. I also want to finish a klaroline one cause that was fun to write. And my Amy/Dan ones I’d like to finish. I would like to finish my Veronica Mars ones (I have two) but they need a lot more attention, so when people message me about them I tell them the planned ending.

28. I will name you three things (drunk Ian — shared bachelor party — Gallavich): write a paragraph or two!

“Fuck, Mickey, I probably shouldn’t have had the third Hot Toddy,” Ian grimaced as the world around him spun.

Mickey laughed at him and wrapped an arm around his shoulders. Ian wanted to think his future husband just wanted to pull him closer, but he had a feeling it was to steady him.

“Probably should’ve cut you off earlier,” Mickey said tugging Ian closer.

Ian wobbled and plopped down on the back steps of the porch. Mickey followed suit a moment letter and they both looked out toward the backyard where the Gallaghers, Balls, and a few of the Milkovich cousins were alternatively huddling around a fire, drinking, and dancing.

“I blame Lip for making us have this stupid shared bachelor party in the first place,” Ian grumbled.

Mickey kissed him on the forehead as Ian lay his head on his shoulder. “It’s Sandy’s fault too.”

Ian hmmed in response and Mickey knew he was going to fall asleep any moment. He ran his hand up and down Ian’s arm and watched as Debbie bounced over to them.

“Jesus, you aren’t even married yet and you two are like an old married couple. Are you going to come dance or what?” she whined.

Mickey looked down at Ian, whose eyes were already closed, and then back up to Debbie. She was watching them with knowing eyes.

“We’ll dance at the wedding. Go grab Lip, I need his help to get Sleeping Beauty upstairs.”

Debbie turned to go get her eldest brother and Mickey looked back down at Ian. In his sleep, he nuzzled Mickey’s shoulder, breathed deeply, and a gentle smile appeared there.

3 more days and they’d officially be husbands.

34. How did you find the magical world of fanfics?

I was about 10 and my cousin used to write a buffy the vampire slayer zine. There was a link to a site called buffyworld.com or something like that. And I found fanfic that way. There was a link on the site to ff.net and that’s how I stumbled across that. I stayed there for many many years until my second time in the veronica mars fandom around 2014 when I was lead to a03 and then I’ve been there ever since. On and off, my writing has fluctuated through the years based on my personal life.

49. Where do you draw inspiration from?

Everywhere! omg. It’s insane. Gallavich I love writing for. There’s so many different facets to them, but truly everywhere I find inspiration. I have a whole doc of gallavich ideas that have stemmed from other fanfics, headcanons from me and other people, rewatching episodes, what’s going to happen in s11, cute moments i’d like to see happen, holidays, and just general life. I saw a pic of WW2 vets who were in a long term relationship and i was like mickey and ian! another idea is born.

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safflowerseason · 4 years

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You reblogging Gilmore Girls inspired me to go back and watch and now I'm back in my Jess/Rory feels. Ngl, the way they ended up kind of reminds me of how I felt about Dan and Amy's ending in Veep, and the lack of any real sort of closure or resolution to their storyline, even with the entire revival. I'm interested to know your thoughts on the way their story was handled/wrapped up. (Plus side -- my love for Emily Gilmore was revived again, what an icon).

Hi Anon - thanks so much for writing in. I love hearing from other Veep fans who enjoy the same shows I do ☺️ Your ask caused a mini-storm of Rory/Jess reblogs on my end too, lol. And yes, Emily Gilmore is a fucking icon. A tour de force performance.

What’s interesting about Gilmore Girls for me is that while I do love it a lot and enjoy talking about it and occasionally get in my feels about it, it’s not a show of my heart for me the way Veep and The West Wing are. I probably would not donate money to a political cause in order to watch a GG reunion special, lol. So while I love Rory/Jess very much, I don’t feel psychically wounded by their storyline the way I feel about how Dan and Amy’s storyline was treated.

For me, Rory and Jess’s final meeting in S6 works as both closure and a form of resolution. It’s a little ambiguous, but there’s pretty definite takeaways: Rory realizes she loves Logan (bleh), they acknowledge their connection anyway, and even though Jess is disappointed, he’s also a real adult about the whole thing. He’s obviously not going to cut Rory out of his life or anything drastic and immature like that.

The revival, in contrast, tosses a firm resolution out the window, but this seem to be ASP’s preferred modus operandi where Rory’s relationships are concerned. It makes clear that that in the last ten years they’ve developed a deep and enduring friendship and that he’s still carrying a torch for her. Is that closure? I think it’s closure in the sense that we’re given all (or nearly all) the facts about where they stand with one another and their relationship is treated very significantly by the show (in other words, there’s no Mandelian gaslighting). We don’t know what’s going to happen with Rory and Jess, but we know their relationship matters, and that they are a major part of one another’s lives.

In some ways, I think that the “lack of closure” you’re referring to is really just ASP letting Rory and Jess’s profound connection endure in a very realistic way. Two people can have a soul-deep relationship, can even have confused and repressed romantic feelings about one another, and it doesn’t always mean they have to be a) romantically involved or b) fully cut out of one another’s lives. (Okay, this turned into a real essay, so below the cut are my angsty feelings about teenage Rory/Jess, haha).

I tend to get most in my feelings about teenage Rory and Jess, though, because that’s when their dysfunction is on display, and as y’all know, I love me a star-crossed dysfunctional couple who can’t quit each other. And also mostly because the show totally nails the adolescent yearning of their relationship, the almost-grown-up-but-not-quite desire that’s powering their connection. They just want each other so much. And I love the fated sense of doom hanging over their attraction in S2, as they edge around each other. It’s done really lightly and aching, and so pure and bittersweet, you just know this is all going to blow up in everyone’s faces somehow, that both Jess and Rory are going to self-sabotage. (Yes, of course, Jess is objectively more dysfunctional and the dissolution of their relationship is absolutely his fault—he’s barely staying in school, he’s a complete emotional wreck, he strings Rory along, he should not be anyone’s boyfriend. But Rory also has emotional issues that exacerbate things between them.)

I do have a lot of complicated feelings about how Jess is written in S2 and S3. I think Jess is a great character and they got better at writing him overtime, but at first he’s stuck in this kind of cartoonish over-the-top rebellious teen mode, talking like he’s a greaser member of a street gang in the 1950’s, and I think Milo Ventimiglia delivers a lot of those lines way too heavy-handed in the beginning. Whenever he baits Dean in S2, I always cringe a little, partly because everyone is acting so embarrassingly, and partly because, whatever ASP might be wishing, it’s not actually 1952 and no one talks like that. Ventimiglia shines a lot more in his quieter moments with Luke and Rory.

But I also feel that the way the breakdown of their relationship was handled was very…hamfisted. We barely get any Jess and Rory just being Jess and Rory before their relationship starts dissolving before our very eyes. There are some super cute moments sprinkled throughout S3, but they’re all overshadowed by Dean basically muscling in Rory and Jess’s first date or Jess ruining his meeting with Emily or Jess flaking on Rory…so the poignant bittersweet sense from S2 just becomes this impending sense of dread in S3 as we wait for Jess to do something so truly horrible he becomes unsympathetic to the audience. I actually don’t rewatch most of S3 for this reason, but at least it makes his redemption feel earned. I applaud the show for actually bringing Jess back in S4 when his life is still 90% a mess. He’s taken a few baby steps, but it’s realistic about how hard and messy it is to really change your life. Without those messy S4 appearances, his obvious growth in S6 wouldn’t feel nearly so powerful.

Obviously Rory loses her virginity to Dean and has an affair with him blah blah, but I think her relationship with Jess really represents her loss of innocence as a child. He’s the first person she actively “loses” after her dad. Christopher’s absence is built into Rory—it’s a part of her identity. But Rory loves Jess and loses him even as the purity of their emotional connection is increasingly emphasized over the rest of the series. That loss is foundational for the rest of her relationships—it’s a huge part of why she relapses with Dean and why she finds Logan so appealing, and it’s a huge part of why Rory keeps Jess firmly in the friend box for the rest of the series, even as they connect and reconnect and as Jess grows enough to realize that no dramatic pronouncements of love are going to win Rory over.

I don’t know. That scene when they’re kissing by the phone box and everything is new and perfect and tender and untouched between them and they’re both just like wow and you just know it can’t stay that way forever. It’s so perfect. It’s the perfect encapsulation of what it’s like to be seventeen and in your first real relationship (and then Rory runs off to apologize to Dean…ugh. Boundaries, Rory!) (also, I do not count Dean as her first real relationship. They're just playacting. Rory only dates Dean because he’s a magazine’s idea of a perfect high school boyfriend. She has nothing in common with him. They spend the entire time fighting about Harvard. Dean sucks.)

#gilmore girls #rory gilmore #jess mariano #rory x jess

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theliberaltony · 5 years

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via FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): We’re back with a snake draft of 2020 Democratic presidential contenders, but this time with a twist — we’re picking the … VICE PRESIDENT.

I know — we don’t know who the presidential nominee is yet. But let’s face it: Even if the primary field grows to 20-plus Democrats, only one can win the nomination. So we might as well talk about who would make a desirable running mate (if not commander-in-chief). And before you scoff, a candidate’s choice for VP can signal a lot about what he or she prioritizes or considers to be a campaign weakness.

Remember, we’re trying to pick someone who’d make a good second-in-command, although our picks tend to diminish in quality as the rounds wear on. The rules are as follows: Four rounds, so between the four of us, 16 potential 2020 Democratic veeps. Let’s determine the order. (I’m going to write our names on paper and recruit someone in the office to draw them out of a hat while Nate orders some Chinese takeout.)

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I’m pretty excited about this, I gotta say.

(The VP draft, not just the Chinese food.)

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): All about a well-balanced meal, or presidential ticket.

sarahf: The lineup:

Clare

Nate

Geoff

Sarah

natesilver: Pretty happy with the No. 2 pick here.

sarahf: I can’t believe I have to go twice in a row. I hate

drafts. Anyway, get us started, Clare!

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): mmmmk

Cory Booker

natesilver: bad pick

sarahf: good pick

clare.malone: Here’s my reasoning:

I’m going to operate for a moment on the premise that the “electability” factor that Democratic primary voters say they are going for in 2020 is a stand-in for a centrist-type candidate, and probably a white person. Under those conditions, a white candidate would want to pick Booker for his identity and ability to appeal to black voters, which is a big part of the Democratic primary electorate. But Booker also appeals to the establishment wings of the party and has the sort of resume where you wouldn’t mind setting him up to run for president someday in the future, but with a West Wing office.

geoffrey.skelley: Booker would have been my first pick, too.

sarahf: Still think it’s a bad pick, Nate?

clare.malone: Yes, he does on principle, which I respect.

natesilver: There are two obvious picks, and Booker was maybe the third-best pick after those two obvious ones.

sarahf: Well, then. I don’t suppose I should delay the draft any longer.

You’re up, Nate!

clare.malone: I’m on tenterhooks, with bated breath, etc.

natesilver: I’m going with … Robert (“Beto”) O’Rourke.

clare.malone: bad pick

(I, too, have my principles.)

natesilver: No, it’s a great pick.

geoffrey.skelley: You guys are on a roll.

natesilver: Here’s why: 1) There’s about a 55 percent chance (per Betfair) that the nominee will not be a white dude. 2) If the nominee is not a white dude, the VP probably will be a white dude. 3) The other white dudes are too old (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders) or would cost Democrats a Senate seat (Sherrod Brown). Hence, Beto.

sarahf: Hmm, I think Beto’s lack of resume disqualifies him (section IV in this article) as VP material, but not necessarily for a presidential run because in that case, charisma matters more than experience.

clare.malone: Nate is just coming at the likelihood of who will be at the top of the ticket differently than I am.

O’Rourke is the right pick if you’re doing Nate’s reasoning of a minority candidate being the nominee.

In that case, O’Rourke is popular, white and young, which would make for a good VP.

natesilver: See, I thought the lack of a resume would make him even more qualified to be VP since it’s a job where you don’t really do anything. He could go around the country eating ice cream and staying at weird motels and blogging about it.

sarahf: Maybe, but I’d argue that VPs have historically been a pretty overqualified bunch.

clare.malone: What do you think is his motel chain of choice?

natesilver: Lol, Beto doesn’t stay at chains, Clare!

clare.malone: You don’t think he’s racking up Holiday Inn Express points?

geoffrey.skelley: A corollary to the craft beer track is the local motel track.

clare.malone: (I love a Holiday Inn, by the way. Always my preference on the road. As is McDonald’s over Burger King.)

BRAND LOYALTY IS IMPORTANT AS AN AMERICAN

sarahf: OK, Geoff, take it away with pick No. 3.

geoffrey.skelley: I made up a little rubric for leading presidential contenders to get a rough calculation of who might best balance a ticket or meet some missing criteria for the major contenders. And this will shake things up, but I think Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth best hits the mark of the remaining options out there.

sarahf: Interesting pick.

Do tell us more.

natesilver: “Interesting” is a euphemism for “bad” where I come from.

geoffrey.skelley: She’s got one hell of a story.

She’s the first disabled congresswoman, having lost both of her legs while serving in Iraq as a helicopter pilot. And she is someone of mixed ethnicity from the Midwest.

Outside of Biden, I’m not really sure of the foreign policy credentials of any of the other Democratic presidential candidates. Booker is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, but Duckworth’s military experience would be an asset.

clare.malone: I’m going to offend Foggy Bottom here and say that people don’t care about foreign policy all that much anymore.

geoffrey.skelley: I think Duckworth could be a presidential candidate someday if she doesn’t get involved in 2020.

natesilver: She was born in Thailand, to a U.S. citizen, so there would probably be debate about her eligibility, a la Ted Cruz.

And I did have her on my list, as I think she’s one of the more plausible nonpresidential contenders who could become VP.

But … like … the fact that she hasn’t expressed any interest in the presidency — doesn’t that also mean she might not want the vice presidency?

sarahf: Her military background is definitely a win for Democrats, but like Nate said, I’m not sure she wants so high-profile of a gig.

clare.malone: She also just had a baby, which might have something to do with not wanting to run right now.

sarahf: OK, I’m here with picks 4 and 5! And I think you all will agree I have some very good picks.

First of all, Vice President Julian Castro.

natesilver: Not bad.

One of my top 2 is still on the board, though.

sarahf: I’m a little surprised no one has claimed him, but my thought is that Castro already has the grooming as a former Cabinet secretary. And I think his message as a Latino American challenging Trump is powerful.

That said, I don’t think it’s powerful enough to win him the nomination. (I just don’t think he has enough name recognition.)

geoffrey.skelley: I wrote Castro’s theory of the case and agree there’s definitely an “I’m running for VP” vibe.

clare.malone: He seems sort of a dull penny in a race filled with shiny pennies.

natesilver: But sometimes that’s what candidates are going for. Tim Kaine is in the “dull penny” bucket. Mike Pence, too.

clare.malone: I agree he has experience and the resume, but there are lots of other people who might make a more interesting choice with similar resumes.

And this is true, Nate, but are we in that era?

geoffrey.skelley: Castro would probably be a decent choice for Biden, Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

natesilver: Democrats could also talk themselves into thinking they need to double-down on the Hispanic vote.

Maybe Sanders or Warren, Geoffrey. Biden might need to pick someone who is more identifiably to his left?

geoffrey.skelley: Fair point regarding ideology — where Castro stands on a number of issues is a big unknown.

The Electoral College would also complicate — if not exclude — a Castro choice if O’Rourke were to become the nominee.1

sarahf: Guess that means no O’Rourke-Castro ticket in our future.

But OK, my next pick is Amy Klobuchar.

geoffrey.skelley: arrrrgh

Probably could’ve waited on Duckworth and taken Klobuchar, but the first pick is fun and splashy.

sarahf: Klobuchar’s Midwestern chops make her desirable electorally.

And with four women already among the major candidates, if a woman is not at the top of the ticket, she needs to be in the second spot.

natesilver: My suppositions are that 1) there will not be two women on the ticket; 2) there will not be two people of color on the ticket; and 3) there will not be two white men on the ticket.

But you could have a white man and a nonwhite man, e.g. Biden and Booker.

Or a white man and a white woman, e.g. Beto and Klobuchar.

sarahf: In which case, Nate’s first scenario could render my pick useless, but I’m not so sure a woman will win the top spot.

Also, at this stage Klobuchar is the highest-profile “moderate” to throw her hat in the ring, which could help someone like Kamala Harris or Sanders if they were to win the nomination, although I probably agree with Nate that two women on the ticket is not going to happen.

natesilver: Klobuchar definitely has the electability thing going for her, she’s not too old, and no big issues re: her qualifications.

sarahf: OK, remind me how snake drafts work … Geoff is up again?

geoffrey.skelley: This is kind of tough — I have a pick in mind, but I think she’s unlikely to take the No. 2 slot, so I’ll wait. So I’m going with Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet instead.

natesilver: ehhhhh

I guess he’s in the Kaine category of nonshiny white dude.

sarahf:

But TBF, there are several possible nominees that fall into this category.

geoffrey.skelley: If the nominee is a woman and/or a minority, he’s a sort of bland Kaine-esque pick that might be needed. He hails from a battleground state, is Western and went viral recently with his floor speech during the government shutdown. Who knows, he might even be eying an under-the-radar presidential bid.

clare.malone: dull penny

But I guess a dull penny is still legal tender.

natesilver: Is Colorado really a battleground state anymore? Probably not with Trump on the ballot.

clare.malone: My favorite part of that Bennet floor speech was how uncomfortable Alabama Sen. Doug Jones looked to be caught on camera sitting next to the rant.

geoffrey.skelley: I get the dull penny point, but it’s also worth remembering that the presidential nominee is NOT going to want someone who outshines them.

sarahf: Fair.

natesilver: Is it my pick now? One of my top two — the one who isn’t Beto — is still on the board.

sarahf: Well then, take ’em off, Nate. Who is it!?!?

natesilver: Kamala Harris

clare.malone: fuck

You stole my pick.

And it doesn’t even go with your theory!

Not fair.

It goes with MY theory.

geoffrey.skelley: Well, I was tempted to take her both times. But I don’t think she’ll take it unless it’s as Biden’s VP. She can camp out in that California Senate seat, which isn’t up again until 2022, and wait for another chance in 2024 or 2028.

natesilver: I mean — I said earlier there’s a 55 percent chance that the nominee isn’t a white dude. That means there’s a 45 percent chance that it will be a white dude.

clare.malone: Wait, is that how percentages work??

natesilver: Clare, the way percentages work is that if you say something has a 29 percent chance of happening, that actually means there is a 0 percent chance.

clare.malone: ahhhh

natesilver: Biden-Harris is a very natural pairing, especially since Biden will have to shore up support on his left.

Beto-Harris could also work. It’s a bit more of a Clinton-Gore dynamic.

The thing is, though, that we could also very easily wind up with an unnatural arrangement where a deal is brokered on the convention floor.

So I like Harris’s VP chances partly because I like her presidential chances to win, but also to be one of the runners-up if she doesn’t.

clare.malone: OK, I’m up.

Stacey Abrams.

natesilver: Hmm

clare.malone: Since Nate stole my pick for my theory of the case for this chat — that the top of the ticket will probably be white — I’m going with Abrams as a popular black candidate who’s a rising political star.

Although I know there’s buzz about her running for the Senate.

natesilver: “Hmm” isn’t passive-aggressive like “interesting.” I’m generally hmm-ing about whether I like the pick.

clare.malone: But Abrams would be a really interesting, bold move for whomever the nominee ends up being. And Abrams would get a huge boost in national profile.

sarahf: Plus, even though VPs don’t necessarily help the ticket carry their home state, it could be an interesting move for Democrats to pick someone who hails from the Deep South.

geoffrey.skelley: Beto-Abrams: Losing to Win.

natesilver: But are there going to be questions about her experience level? Especially since a black woman isn’t likely to get the benefit of the doubt?

clare.malone: Definitely a criticism that would be leveled.

Then again, maybe we are in the midst of busting up the experience paradigm in presidential politics.

natesilver: Last full round, then a lightning round?

We used to go six rounds back in my day.

But we can treat this as a semi-lightning round, a “thunder round,” if you will.

OK, Clare, we need another pick from you.

clare.malone: I know, Nate. I’m thinking.

geoffrey.skelley: Lot of boring white guys out there.

clare.malone: I’m going to switch my theory of the case midround and operate with the theory that a minority will be at the top of the ticket, so I’m going with the wunderkind of South Bend, Pete Buttigieg.

A lot of the top tier people are taken, but he’d be an interesting Midwestern pick … despite his experience problem, obviously.

geoffrey.skelley: For what it’s worth, Abrams has more experience than Buttigieg — she served in the Georgia House of Representatives for about 10 years and was that body’s minority leader more than half that time. Buttigieg has been mayor of South Bend, Indiana, for seven years.

clare.malone: Well, she’s been picked and the pickings are slim!

sarahf: Potential VPs like Buttigieg, Abrams and Beto are all challenging my notion of the kind of experience a VP should have as an elder statesman or stateswoman.

clare.malone: Brown is someone you’d WANT to pick here, but the possibility of losing the Senate seat is obviously a big problem.

natesilver: So … uhhh … do we think a presidential candidate is going to feel safe picking a gay/lesbian/bi VP candidate?

The country is progressive, but it isn’t that progressive.

This is also relevant to Tammy Baldwin and Kyrsten Sinema, both of whom would also be interesting choices.

clare.malone: Yeah, Tammy Baldwin is maybe a better choice, actually.

And yes, Nate, that’s an open question for sure.

natesilver: OK, my pick?

sarahf: Yup.

natesilver: I am going with …. Pennsylvania Sen. Robert “Bob” Casey Jr.

sarahf: Deep cut.

natesilver: From a crucial swing state, but a Democratic governor would pick his replacement.

He also seemed to at least flirt with the idea of running for president, so he’d probably be interested.

geoffrey.skelley: Abortion politics make him a problematic pick, although the geography makes perfect sense.

And Tim Kaine’s personal pro-life position didn’t foul up Hillary Clinton, so maybe Casey would work for someone like Harris, too.

natesilver: I do agree the abortion thing could be an issue, although his record has shifted to the left over the years.

And he’d be the choice of a candidate who wanted to pivot to the center — someone like Warren. The Harris-Casey fit seems weird, but in theory that could work, too.

Booker-Casey is also not crazy.

geoffrey.skelley: All right. I’ve got some swing state women in mind — I’m going with Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

natesilver: Very deep cut.

geoffrey.skelley: Latina from a battleground state with a Democratic governor who could appoint her replacement.

natesilver: Yeah, it all makes sense.

geoffrey.skelley: Not a well-known name, but again whoever is at the top of the ticket may not want a high-profile pick. Instead, he or she may be looking for balance.

natesilver: O’Rourke-Cortez Masto really rolls off the tongue

sarahf: OK, I’m up. One “thunder pick” and then a “lightning pick” to take us home.

My thunder pick is: Sherrod Brown despite reservations about picking him earlier.

natesilver: Pretty good for the Thunder round.

Sorry, thunder.

(Reading too much NBA stuff so was thinking about the Oklahoma City Thunder.)

sarahf: He has the policy chops and geographical pull a ticket might need — Senate seat be damned.

geoffrey.skelley: He would make a lot of sense for many candidates.

natesilver: Brown has a real crossover appeal between the left and the “beer track” that makes him very interesting.

But it would help if Ohio weren’t soooo far gone as a swing state, or seemingly so.

Like, I think he’d put Ohio “in play” but not necessarily make the Democrat the favorite there in a 50-50 national race.

sarahf:

LIGHTNING ROUND

Gavin Fucking Newsom

natesilver:

geoffrey.skelley: Say wut.

sarahf: Look, he’s got the ambition: two-term mayor of San Francisco before a quick stint as California’s lieutenant governor. And now he’s the governor of California! Depending on the tone Democrats want to strike in opposing Trump, he could be a formidable foe.

That said, I freely admit he’s a wild card. And a bit of a trollish pick from me.

clare.malone: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I have to say something here.

The recent New Yorker profile of him was fucking amazing

sarahf: It was, Clare. And may have inspired my choice.

clare.malone: I have very rarely seen the bald insecurities of a politician so perfectly laid out.

sarahf: But enough of my nonsense. You’re up, Geoff.

geoffrey.skelley: Sticking with Tammys, I’ll take Sen. Baldwin of Wisconsin.

sarahf: Nice. She’d made my list before I went renegade.

geoffrey.skelley: She said she isn’t interested in running for president, but maybe the VP slot? She would be a battleground senator from the Midwest, and as one of the most liberal senators, she’d be a friendly pick on the left of the party.

sarahf: Democrats are going to need that Midwestern cred.

natesilver: Clare claims she can predict my pick.

clare.malone: I think I know…

natesilver: It’s a pretty boring pick.

Kirsten Gillibrand.

clare.malone: booo

Not who I thought.

natesilver: Gillibrand’s just … I mean, out of the various presidential contenders who aren’t too old, she was the one left standing.

geoffrey.skelley: And she’d take it, too, I suspect. Unlike some of the others.

natesilver: Which is a bit damning with faint praise. But she’s theoretically got appeal to different parts of the Democratic base. She’ll probably raise a lot of money.

clare.malone: That’s a BIG thing, I think.

Very useful to have that fundraising know-how around.

natesilver: She has to perform reasonably well in the primaries. Have a “surge” at some point, even if she doesn’t win any states. If she totally flames out, I don’t think it works.

clare.malone: OK, I’m going to pick who I thought Nate was going to pick because I just want to.

natesilver: Haha, OK. I’m wondering if you’re going to pick who I thought you’d think I’d pick.

clare.malone: …

Doug Jones.

Nate used to LOVE talking about Doug Jones as a presidential nominee.

And Jones is a moderate, up for a tough re-elect in 2020.

Why the heck not!

geoffrey.skelley: It’s going to be hard for him to hold on as a red state Democratic senator, so why not?

natesilver: Haha, I thought you’d pick Dougie J.

He’s a classic Nate last-round pick.

clare.malone: Yes, he is.

natesilver: And I was probably going to take him if Gillibrand weren’t still on the board.

clare.malone: In that case, I feel somewhat vindicated.

sarahf: A final look at our VP-2020 teams. Tweet at us whose lineup you like best:

2020 Democratic vice presidential draft

February 2019

Round Clare Nate Geoff Sarah 1 Cory Booker Beto O’Rourke Tammy Duckworth Julian Castro 2 Stacey Abrams Kamala Harris Michael Bennet Amy Klobuchar 3 Pete Buttigieg Bob Casey Jr. Catherine Cortez Masto Sherrod Brown 4 Doug Jones Kirsten Gillibrand Tammy Baldwin Gavin Newsom

#IFTTT #FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #A FiveThirtyEight Chat

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