On another, less angry note, the democrats in my state have started running ads that are very similar to like traditional conservative/republican ads and I fuck with it SO much. Like I totally believe it has made a difference in how things went in the fall for us with the special election we had for recreational marijuana and reproductive health care. Truly amazing

Welcome to the Nightmare Game II - CH2

**This is an edited machine translation. For more information, please [click here]**

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Chapter 2: Resurrection Overture (II)

Qi Leren buried his face in Ning Zhou's uniform for a long time as his heart that felt as if it had been fried in oil slowly calmed down. He climbed out of the hollow tree stump with difficulty.

Inexplicably, this weather-beaten old tree stump that should have been dead had a fresh bud emerging from it, which had grown half a meter high in just seven days, swaying its new green leaves in the breeze.

Qi Leren touched the leaves of the new buds and suddenly felt that he had been reborn.

Still not fully recovered, he walked slowly in the Garden of the Holy Tomb and slowly fought sensation back into his body. He didn't know what's going on outside presently, so it was more appropriate to wait for his condition to be better before going out.

While pacing, Qi Leren sorted out his own matters.

Thanks to two dangerous missions in succession, his remaining survival time was an astonishing 162 days, 7 hours and 32 minutes. Usually, one-fifth to one-third of his survival time would be used to buy necessities. Even so, he had more than one hundred days at his disposal, so the training trip he had already planned could be put on the agenda. After returning to the Village of Dusk and meeting with Ning Zhou, he would suspend the task first, exercise his skills well, and at least master the basic usage of guns.

As for the main task’s second step, it was necessary to go to Purgatory in the depths of the Underground Ant City. Qi Leren learned about the situation there while he was undercover as "Red". With his current strength, the risk of going there was too great, and he needed to consider it again.

Item cards and equipment had returned to his item bar, and a new skill card had been added:

[Secretly Observing (binding skill card): When using this skill card, the holder will feel a mysterious power which will enhance your five senses and decrease the perception of your existence. With this, when you observe, others will not observe you. But remember, observe propriety and don't do anything. Skill lasts for 10 minutes and cools down for 24 hours.]

Qi Leren took this skill card and frowned slightly.

Why did he get such a skill card for the achievement of "Deceiving the Devil of Fraud"? Judging from his previous S/L skill and Dr. Lu's skill cards, the achievements should be closely related to the rewards, so the achievement of Deceiving the Devil of Fraud should enable him to obtain a skill card with fraudulent attributes, such as "Devil Etiquette", which could make him appear to be a demon. Was it that the reward had been changed because he already had the same skill? That didn't make sense either...

Did it want him to secretly observe the Devil of Fraud? Qi Leren laughed in his heart and got rid of this absurd idea.

After walking for half an hour he did some stretching exercises, and Qi Leren felt that his physical condition had improved a lot. At least normal running and jumping were no problem. He drank some water, ate some easily digestible food, and equipped skill cards in the card slots: S/L Data, Rain-Day Laundry, Primary Fighting Skills, and he took his dagger out, then walked to the entrance of the Garden of the Holy Tomb.

With his body passed through the thin layer of the enchantment, Qi Leren came out of the Garden of the Holy Tomb.

The whole Holy City was as quiet as a grave. Qi Leren looked around warily and found that there was really no one there. After the Holy Nun’s field was broken, the residents here had already left the city.

That's right, the Holy See couldn't invest a lot of manpower here. For safety reasons, the residents here should also be evacuated. Maybe there were demons wandering in the city...

After thinking about it, Qi Leren changed the skill card of "Primary Fighting Skills" and equipped "Devil Etiquette". The last task had left a lot of succubus crystals, which was convenient for him now. Just consuming a demon crystal could make him pretend to be the demon type to which this crystal belonged for 3 hours. Unfortunately, it was only a shell. If you started to act fully, it would easily be seen through because you didn't have the talent abilities of this kind of demon.

Qi Leren, who had turned into a succubus, walked forward quickly and heard something moving in front of him before went far. Two lower demons were hurriedly running down the stairs of the former site of the Vatican and saw this succubus standing in the middle of the road, looking at them with a smile. The two lower demons looked at each other and hesitated on whether to approach.

There was a strict hierarchy between demons and devils. Once the higher devils released their powers, the lower demons had no resistance. Higher devils often didn't regard the lower demons as their own kind, and cannibalism was a part of the ecology of the underworld.

Therefore, the hesitant attitude of these two lower demons was very strange in Qi Leren’s eyes.

He decided to give it a try.

"What’s happening up there?" the succubus asked in a lazy tone.

"Answering this lord, the Witch of Desperation and the Devil of Suspicion are facing each other and it appears that they’re going to fight." Because they can't figure out which side of the succubus in front of them, the two lower demons have to bow their heads and show deference, so as to avoid not giving him face. Subordinates of the old Devil had often experienced tragedy by not showing courtesy to the Devil of Power.

"Oh? The two Lords are so angry," the succubus said with a smile.

Qi Leren's brain turned very fast. He didn't know what kind of creatures the Devil of Suspicion and Witch of Desperation were. The factions between demons were very complicated. He only had a little foundation thanks to the help of the Court. Demons, such as the Witch of Jealousy, who could clearly possess a kind of original power, were definitely higher devils.

The Devil of Suspicion sounded related to the attribute of "fraud", and he was probably the Devil of Fraud’s men. The orientation of the Witch of Desperation was not easy to judge, but since she would appear here, she must have her reasons... If the two sides were facing each other, she should be in opposition to the Devil of Fraud?

Who would it be? One of Power’s men? No, the Devil Kings of Fraud and Power were not antagonistic. The Devil of Slaughter? It was possible, but the Devil of Slaughter had been missing for a long time and no branch of Slaughter Secret Society, no matter which one, could contact it.

There was another possibility.

Qi Leren narrowed his eyes and made a bold guess that this Witch of Desperation was under the hand of the old Devil.

Although the old Devil has been killed by the Holy Nun, his subordinates were still active in the underworld. It made sense to come for the old Devil at this time.

Two lower demons looked at the succubus with trepidation. They didn't know which side he was from and didn't dare to leave.

The succubus suddenly chuckled and waved at them: "Come on, get out of my way."

The lower demons ran away as if freed and Qi Leren put away his demon form, judged his acting skills, and secretly gave himself a compliment. It was fortunate that he’d put on a disguise in time, otherwise he would have had to fight first which might have disturbed the two great devils above. It was really a situation that the S/L solution couldn't save him from.

Qi Leren wasn’t sure how much these higher devils could perceive. Although it will not be exaggerated for them to cover the entire site of the Vatican, they might be alarmed if he got too close.

However, he has this skill card of "Secretly Observing", which was tantamount to a timely rain. Qi Leren was hooked up and felt that his lucky value seemed to have increased after resurrection.

Go up the mountain first, wait until you get close to the two opposing devils, then hide yourself with your skill card and sneak into the church.

Having made up his mind, Qi Leren walked up quickly. When he reached halfway up the mountain, the top of the mountain was full of wind and rain, and the earth shook. Countless bats flew in the heavy rain, almost covering the sky with solid black. Qi Leren nearly fell down the stairs because of the sudden earthquake. When he looked up suddenly, he saw a huge hole emerging in the sky and lava poured down. Bats sent out the piercing shrieks, as if they were ignited by the lava, burning into a fire cloud in the sky.

This terrible war situation made Qi Leren's heart more pressed, and he almost hesitated whether he wanted to venture into the church at this time.

But Maria's words made him very concerned. His intuition was that this was a very important clue. If you miss it, maybe...

Anyway, I've already died once, and it won't be more difficult than when I faced the Devil of Fraud. After a pause, Qi Leren changed [Rain-Day Laundry] to [Secretly Observing]. At the moment of activation he felt as if his body was engulfed in heavy rain, and the fighting sound in the distance were much clearer than before. When he looked far away, he could even see two figures fighting in midair.

The Witch of Desperation dressed in a black cloak drew a circle and the bats ignited by lava instantly broke free from the flames and returned to her side, pressing into a large group. Her voice was hoarse and tired, and it could be faintly heard in the decreasing rainstorm: "I originally thought that you would continue to wander freely in the demon world, looking for your ‘art’, but I didn't expect you to take refuge in the Devil of Fraud."

The Devil of Suspicion smiled and touched the two carefully trimmed moustaches on his lips. He looked much more energetic than the Witch of Desperation, who was a mess. If he didn't know this devil’s identity, he would say he looked like an artist.

"Isn't it our demonic nature to submit to greater power?" the Devil of Suspicion asked.

"Oh? However, in terms of their source of power, the Devil of Fraud is not as good as Power and Slaughter," the Witch of Desperation said.

The Devil of Suspicion smiled politely: "Is the original power of the Devastator strong enough? Isn't he eversleeping in this church? His power is only a fragment, and those who use this power are the real key."

The Witch of Desperation's empty eyes revealed faint sadness. When the old Devil was still alive, she had the blessing of destructive power. She was far stronger than the Devil of Suspicion. However, with the death of the old Devil, the power of "destruction" had become weak, and the original power of "despair" also declined.

This group of the old Devil’s subordinates had already given up, and when a unless new Devil of Destruction was born they could only gradually weaken.

Until a week ago, when they suddenly felt the new destructive power far away from the underworld.

It was like a meteor, and the light of destruction flashing in the underworld showed them hope that Destruction would never be destroyed, and he would eventually come back!

The short-term recovery of the "destructive" power also made Power and Fraud feel threatened, so the Devil of Suspicion was sent to investigate and he happened to meet the Witch of Desperation who had also come.

"So your Lord is willing to be loyal to that Power lunatic? I heard that he’s handed over 'one third of authority' to Power? But without the last thing, Power can never be crowned." When it came to the "one-third of the authority", a hatred emerged in the Witch of Desperation’s heart, as it was the devil crystal of the Lord of Destruction. Even if it was only one-third, it was strong enough. This group of demon subordinates to the Lord of Destruction had only survived by one-third of a demon crystal left by him, and one-third was still missing. Once all fell into the hands of the Devil of Power and she then found 'that thing', it will not be too far away from the day when she became king of the underworld.

The Devil of Suspicion, who was full of confidence in the Devil of Fraud, smiled and said, "It's up to your Lord to decide everything. Now what we want to 'discuss' is whether you disappear from my eyes or I send you to disappear forever."

The Witch of Desperation smiled coldly: "It depends on which side’s reinforcements come faster."

The two people fighting in midair didn't notice. Under the cover of trees and skill cards, a human actually outweighed their perception and sneaked into the church.

-----

Editor’s Notes:

There’s some pretty important exposition here and I know I was confused myself when I first read it, so please do let me know if anything is hard to follow and I will explain it as well as I can without spoilers!

One thing to clarify that I don’t think has come up before is that witches and devils (not capitalized unless in a character’s title) are the same form of being, it’s just a distinction of gender. Power is presumably an exception to this simply so that her title matches the other Devil Kings.

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hiiiiiiii uuuh 4, 5, 41, 65 for indigo, 28, 50 ,51, 96 for dem, 12, 14, 36, 78 for zeke and 15, 23, 32, 55 for prim. And scratch my butt please

Indigo:

4. Are they a good gift-giver? What do they tend to give as gifts?

  If he’s known you for a long enough, I’d say he’s good at it, if a bit mediocre. He’ll probably just give you random shit he probably found on the ground but it made him think of you, which I guess is what counts lmao.

5. What’s their reputation like? Does this reputation contrast what they’re really like?

 He’s known as standoffish and a bit lazy to most people. Kinda smells weird too. Which is pretty close to what he’s actually like, minus being a little bit of a chatterbox once he’s comfortable around people.

41. What would they dress up as for Halloween?

  Indigo actually loves Halloween, so he’s pretty decent at SFX makeup from years of practice. He usually goes for something as scary as he can pull off, usually pretty gory. Doesn’t dress up as any character or people or anything, tries to be as original as possible.

65. Do they give people a lot of nicknames?

  If you’re not Ren and he won’t refer to you by name, he’s probably mocking you. He’s not a big fan of nicknames most of the time, minus like calling Jilly shawty or smth LMAO, but he doesn’t really consider those nicknames. Called Vincent sweetcheeks once and never again :)

Zeke:

12. What’s their position in their friend group? (leader, mom friend, chaos goblin, etc)

  It’s never intentional on his part, but he’s often considered a leader in his friendgroups. People just naturally drift towards him to make decisions and things like that. A bit of a chaos goblin as well.

14. Who do they go to in a crisis/emergency? Any particular reason why they choose that person?

  More often than not, either Prim or Mike. But probably Mike most often, he trusts her judgement probably more than Prim’s because they’re more alike. He thinks Prim is too soft in a lot of situations.

36. Do they trust easily? What would you have to do to earn their trust?

  He does not, no. He’ll make you think that he trusts you, but he’ll probably sell you to satan for one corn chip. You have to be as unhinged as him for him to start to trust you, to be honest. Hence why he’s such good friends with Mike and Vince.

78. What’s something they’re really bad at?

  Cooking, which is why he’s usually at the diner or eating out. He’s not like burn water bad at it, but the food he manages to make is usually not edible.

Demetria:

28. Describe their morning routine.

  It takes her at least 20 minutes to get out of bed. She’s usually staring at the ceiling asking why she has to live another day 💀💀. Once she gets up, she takes care of all her hygiene needs and gets dressed. Usually skips breakfast unless Valkya or Fennorian insist that she eats something.

50. Why would they be a good partner for a road trip?

  I think she’d be the only one here that would be an overall good road trip partner tbh. She always has good music if she’s on AUX, puts your straw in your drink for you, isn’t too loud, and always picks up her trash. Main flaw is that she might be too quiet.

51. Why would they be a BAD partner for a road trip?

  If Valkya isn’t tagging along, she’ll be fine. But if Valkya’s there, she’s probably either high as balls or just being really fucking annoying 😭

96. What’s their sense of humour like? (Dad jokes, morbid humour, basic knock-knock jokes, stand up comedy, etc)

  Has a pretty dark sense of humor, but can appreciate all kinds. It is hard to tell when she’s joking though, because she’s so dry.

Prim:

15. How good are they at conversation? Are they a small talk master, bad at initiating, etc?

  She’s a pretty good conversationalist, though is a bit bad at initiating. She’s afraid of annoying people, but talks a lot once she gets going. 

23. Is their pain tolerance high or low?

  You’d think after being with Zeke, it would be a lot higher than it is, but no 💀. She is God’s least favorite, in that aspect. It’s pretty low, which Zeke does very much enjoy.

32. What are they like at parties? Party animal, or awkwardly sitting in the corner drinking punch and reading?

  She probably made most of the food and she’s always holding everyone’s drinks. Will dance on the table if you get her drunk enough.

55. Choose a vine you think perfectly encapsulates their character.

Her @ Zeke 

The Art of the Deal

The Art of the Deal

Despite a successful earnings season where 85% of the company's reporting are beating on both the top and bottom lines, we have to deal instead with the Democrat's tax proposals to finance their multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure and social programs.  At face value, these programs would hurt growth and investment if passed as proposed.

Don't assume that these proposals will become law. We expect this to be where negotiations start. The eventual tax plan will be far less demanding, just as we assumed that their proposed 28/29% corporate tax rate would eventually end up around 25% to remain globally competitive.  We need strong financial markets to fund our economy, and any move to the contrary runs counter to the long-term needs of our country and the return to pre-pandemic levels creating nine to ten million more jobs. We would take advantage of any weakness in the market to add exposure, especially with those companies leveraged to the economy. We see strong growth ahead with much higher earnings than currently forecasted, supported by favorable liquidity trends as all monetary authorities are all in.

News on the coronavirus continues to be mixed as 966 million doses have been administered worldwide, exceeding 16.4 million doses per day. In the U.S, we have administered over 219 million doses averaging close to 3 million per day. India is suffering most, with over 16 million afflicted with the virus, and it is growing by over 300,000 per day. Fortunately, supply is increasing rapidly such that everyone here can get vaccinated by the summer and globally by the end of the year. J&J has resumed shipments in the Eurozone after regulators said that the benefits of the shot outweighed the risks of blood clots which occurred in only nine people out of millions given the vaccine. It appears likely that we will need annual shots, much like yearly flu vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna will be the beneficiaries of annual shots.  

All heads of monetary authorities, the Bank of England, BOJ, ECB, and the Fed continue to deliver the same message: monetary policy will remain overly accommodative for several more years, recognizing that inflation could temporarily increase due to shortages, supply lines issues, and the lack of capital spending in 2020 due to the pandemic. In a recent letter to Senator Rick Scott, Powell said that he does not see inflation above 2% for a prolonged period and that the Fed is committed to their dual mandates of maximum employment and stable prices. Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, said Thursday that the Euro block was still on “crutches” and in need of support from both the central bank and government spending. Sounds familiar? Bond spreads are at historic lows, indicating little financial risk in the system, which certainly is good news. If liquidity drives markets, all monetary authorities have our backs which is good for all financial assets.

Biden's two(?) infrastructure bills and how they would be funded went front and center last week after it leaked that his administration considered doubling the capital gains rate for those earning $1 million or more, to 39.6%. They also propose to keep the 3.8% tax on investment income, bringing the effective rate near 44%. We doubt that will happen, just like we remain convinced that the corporate rate won't go much over 25%. We need to encourage investment in the U.S, and any policy to the contrary would have the opposite effect than intended. What's more, the very wealthy would find a way to avoid the tax such that the government would not come close to raising funds intended to offset the added spending.  We still support lengthening the years before there is preferential tax treatment of capital gains which would reinforce investing in America rather than trading.

The Republicans introduced their infrastructure bill totaling $568 billion focused on traditional infrastructure. We still expect an infrastructure bill closer to $1.5 trillion will pass this year, excluding the social spending, funded with higher corporate and "wealthy" income tax increases, user fees, and project bonding. Don't forget that there are elections next year which will impact the voting on these bills and the Dems are at risk of overstepping their liberal agenda.  

Economic data both here and abroad continue to be excellent when you consider that we are still in the pandemic. Specifically, U.S jobless claims fell to 547,000, a pandemic low; Conference Board Leading Indicators increased to 111.6 in March, Coincident Indicators increased to 104.0 while lagging Indicators fell to 105.1; the U.S Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.6, a series high; the Output Index rose to 57.2, multi-month high; the Services Index increased to 63.1, again a series high; and new home sales rose 20.7% to an annualized rate of 1,021,000 with only a 3.6 month supply, a record low. Overseas, the data is impressive too, with Germany's PMI at 66.4; and the Eurozone April Manufacturers PMI at 66.3, a one-year high. China's exports are accelerating big time, and we are confident that China's growth in 2021 will exceed 8%, well above their projections.

We listened to at least a dozen earnings calls last week, which all supported our view that we are moving to record high operating margins, earnings, cash flow, and ROIC. Also, it is evident that inventories are woefully low, and it will take at least one year to rebuild to normal levels. Managements are doing an outstanding job which we believe will lead to higher valuations down the road as investors see the cards turning over with many better-than-expected results.

Investment Conclusions

It is essential to stay focused on your core beliefs and understand the implications of each data point as they occur. There is so much noise in the marketplace that it can sometimes be challenging to separate the wheat from the chaff. We remain focused on the virus, monetary and fiscal policy, current data reports, liquidity trends, and company results.

We are getting our arms around the virus as vaccinations increase; monetary and fiscal policies will remain accommodative everywhere; economies are recovering earlier and faster than anticipated; liquidity trends have never been more positive, and companies are beating their forecasts with much better days ahead as the global recovery picks up steam.

Our investments remain focused on companies leveraged to the recovery who will also benefit from increased infrastructure spending. Areas of emphasis include global industrials/capital goods/machinery companies; technology at a fair price; industrial and agricultural commodities: transportation, financials, and special situations. We still anticipate a steepening yield curve, but it may happen slower than initially thought as demand for yield everywhere is so high. We would continue to avoid highfliers selling at inflated valuations.

The bottom line is to hold the line and stay invested in areas with the wind to their backs and watch the art of the deal as it unfolds in the weeks/months ahead.

Our investment webinar will be held on Monday, April 26th, at 8:30, am EST. You can join by entering https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 in your browser or calling +646 558 8656 and entering the password 9179217852.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect, and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; turn off cable news; listen to as many earnings calls as possible; do independent research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prosperite LLC

917-951-4139

A Biden presidency would be worse for the long-term goals of progressives in the United States than a second term for Trump would be.

So now that I’ve gotten your attention with a title like that, I should explain what I mean.

There are some posts going around progressive Tumblr that I’ve seen that amount to “hey, Biden isn’t all that bad, you should vote for him,” and I want to offer a counterargument.

The short answer: conservative Democrats hate you, and if Biden wins, they will never listen to a single thing that progressives and socialists have to say ever again.

The long answer: did everyone just forget that politicians lie to score brownie points, and fail to live up to their promises? This is a thing that politicians are infamous for doing. But now that Joe Biden has very suddenly released a list of progressive platforms that he “”“intends”““ to realize while in office, everyone has forgotten that.

Let’s be frank about Joe Biden’s record. He supported segregation way past the point of it being a dominant position. He was good friends with arch-segregationist Strom Thurmond, to the point of delivering the eulogy at Strom’s funeral.

Joe Biden acted as the architect for the modern war on drugs in many ways, including the use of harsh prison sentences for tiny amounts of drugs, both of which are currently being used to terrorize black and brown communities and uphold what is essentially a system of legalized slavery.

Joe Biden acted as a bag man for the banking industry during his time as senator for Delaware, consistently killing any legislation that might prevent banks to avoid taxes by basing themselves in Delaware.

Joe Biden supported the war in Iraq. This alone should be disqualifying.

Given his record, his sudden adoption of progressive policies should be interpreted as being a little suspicious. He is representative of the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, which has done little to oppose the worst excesses of modern capitalism, and has, in fact, done a great deal to exacerbate those failures. But now, there’s a more progressive wing; a wing that the conservative wing has routinely expressed their opposition towards, from Nancy Pelosi dismissing the Squad to Hillary Clinton’s assertion that Bernie Sanders never got anything done.

Do you really think that these people are suddenly going to adopt all those progressive policies, just as it looks like their guy is winning the race?

If you answered “yes” to that previous question, I think I have a bridge to sell you.

The Democratic Party believes it does not need to go left, because in their minds, there is nowhere else for progressives to go. American politics are expressly designed to make third parties an impossibility, so if progressives have nowhere else to go, then they don’t actually need to cater to those progressives in any way other than lip service. That’s what these promises amount to: lip service. I promise you, the second a Biden presidency takes power, all of those promises will go out the window. What’s more, progressive political forces will be ignored. After all, there’s nowhere else for them to go, so in the minds of the conservative Democrats, they cannot represent a meaningful threat to the Democratic party.

Of course, they’ll posture towards progressivism. But they’ll do so without actually making it happen, which will poison the politics around it. I believe that Justin Trudeau has done more harm to left-wing politics in Canada than any conservative politician, because his posturing towards progressive positions angers and energizes the right, but his politics fail to achieve left-wing goals.

And that’s the other side of why a Biden presidency would do so much damage. The right is going to think you’re a communist no matter what you actually do; think of what they did to Barack Obama, another man who ran as a progressive but governed as a conservative. It would energize the American right, it would sap the power of the American left, all the while the centrists prevent any meaningful change and the situation in the US just gets worse and worse.

And that’s the brutal reality. Neither Trump nor Biden will make the situation better. Both will make the situation worse in their own special ways. There’s no chance in hell that the Democratic party would actually make an effort to prevent the caging of children at the border, or the Gestapo-like behaviour of ICE; they’ve had four years to do that, and they’ve done nothing aside from complain about it, even when they’ve held Congress.

The fact is, the current Democratic party knows that progressive ideas are popular. But they have no intention of actually realizing those ideas, or fighting for any position, really. They maintain power through fear, by telling voters again and again that to expect anything better is a sure road to defeat, that the only way to win is to pick the most milquetoast, conservative candidate possible. They hate us progressives far more than they hate the Republicans; they can take the moral high ground over the Republicans, but we can take the moral high ground over them. Therefore, they will never change, unless forced to.

So, what’s my conclusion?

Just don’t vote.

I can already hear people calling me a privileged brocialist for suggesting that anything is more important than beating Trump, probably some people who are going to say that I don’t actually care about people and just want my team to win. To those people I say: I do care about people. That’s why I’m making this argument. A Trump win and a Joe Biden win hurt the American people in their own ways, and while a Biden presidency might help a bit in the short term, the long-term consequences will be disastrous.

I don’t want to be right. It would be fantastic if Joe Biden starting putting out progressive policies all over the place, and started listening to the progressive wing of the party. But I don’t think that’s a realistic assessment of the situation. Everything I’ve seen leads me to a different conclusion: Joe Biden will not help us.

So that’s why I say to not vote.

Because there’s a possibility that if the Democratic party loses here, they might actually start to consider that they actually need to move left in order to remain relevant. They will curse and spit every second of doing so, but it might convince them that serving progressive interests is necessary, that they can’t just rely on progressives caving to pressure and voting no matter what. It might force them to come to the table.

For my evidence, I turn again to Canada, and to the province of Quebec. People often wonder why Quebec gets so much attention in Canadian politics. It’s a large province, sure, but the sway it has on federal politics vastly outweighs its size. Some have suggested political correctness overrepresenting French Canadians, others have suggested political tradition, given how long Quebec has been a part of Canada.

I suggest that it’s because Quebec turns on a dime, politically speaking.

Basically every federal election in Canada of the past few decades has seen Quebec switch almost entirely from one party to another, sometimes inexplicably. The fact is, no party can call Quebec safe territory, and if the Quebecois feel like their needs are not being met, they tend to go for an entirely different party. Party loyalty isn’t really a thing in Quebec. So when election season comes around, every party is clamouring for Quebec’s attention, and after the election, they put in a lot of effort to make sure that the Quebecois like them. This means actually following through with their election promises.

The same is true for swing states in America. If you want politicians to meet your needs, then you need to make it clear that you might vote for them, but only if they’re serving your needs.

It’s gonna hurt like a sonofabitch, it’s true. But if you want progressive policies to have any hope of reaching the halls of power, it is your obligation to not vote in the American election in November, to demonstrate to the conservative wing of the Democratic party that victory is only possible by giving progressives a seat at the table. That can only be done by showing them what happens when they don’t have it.

Also, don’t vote for Trump to spite the Dems. That’s actually moronic. Just don’t vote.

Short Story: Gershom, part two of two

The conclusion of Gershom, a memorable day in the life of the most famous anti-hero in Barbados, one Winston Hall. Enjoy.

 Gershom part two (the night-duppies)

 by Christopher White

Robert mekking good stew now. He should be cutting them carrots in the pot now. Sometimes I want to go by a rum shop and just talk. Don't know wha I would talk to dem about. Maybe cricket. Maybe pussy. Maybe I'll tell them that when it all comes down to it pussy doesn't matter. I'll wait until the sun goes down a little more till I set out for Robert. Wait until the sky turns that fuck up looking orange. Until it looks lazy. Until the birds get dark against it.

 The invincibility or the infallible impression that people may or may not have had of the Prime Minister was of little thought to Winston. It was of little thought to Miriam as well. This was not a result of docility, but, perhaps cynicism. They both thought that businessmen ruled the country and the people in parliament were figure-heads. Such thoughts are ultimately too pat and are only useful in stopping you from going mad because the reality is that you have no idea how the country works, or, more horrifyingly, you have no idea how it should work. Miriam walked down the corridors of the hotel. The waves that dashed themselves against the outside mesmerised the tourists that were staying in the rooms far away from the things in their life, but to Miriam it was just noise on a radio: just something in the background, like when at the Holetown festival there is a man in the background playing conga drums, but you are too busy looking at the vendors and their twirlers and such, and not paying attention to the congas, but you know that it's still there. She thought about how her son would be when he grew up. He'd have strong legs from doing yardwork all the time. He would talk in a deep voice, no, a high pitched quick voice and talk about how fish prices went up and he can't stand it cuz he likes fish. Don't think about what you could have been Winston. Don't think about what you could have been. Don't think about what you could have been. Don't think about what you could have been. Stop thinking about what you could have been. Stop thinking about all of that. If you think about that one more time. Stop thinking about it, you went to rob a cunthole man with some johnnies that was older than you. Anyone would have looked up to them, or thought they knew what they were doing. Don't think about what could have been. It doesn't help. It never helps. You'll just keep pulling at it like when you took mummy's spool of thread and kept pulling it and pulling it until there was thin pink all over the bedroom and mummy beat you, like she should have. Do not think about what could have been. Just piss over there. Don't think about things while you are pissing. If you think about that mistake then you'll start thinking about the other mistakes. Then you'll start to cry again. You want to cry again like a buller? Then don't think about what could have been. Never do it. No one should do it.

The night was stark and everywhere, hiding the tufts of grass that came up everywhere in the village, and cooling the old roofs of the homes and dog houses. The night also turned things into other things by the theatre of its context. A cigarette lighter is paltry in the day-time, but during night, with all that black around, with all those things away from the eye, cigarette lighters become these magic, chain-less amulets, the clear plastic ones becoming savage, simple, flickering crystals of some sort. You hear more, and the hearing prompts your imagination. But ultimately, the night can only be arrogant, because it knows that regardless of all of our clawing advances in technology, of all of our theories for the explanation of things around us, no matter how much we know that eventually the sun will come around again, the night remains arrogant because it knows that you know that things will be hidden whether you like it or not, and who wouldn't be arrogant in that situation? Winston stomped his boots into the slope of the hill as he descended down to one of the paved roads in Suriname. He walked quickly and hid between houses when he saw someone on the road coming towards him. By the side of one house he looked into their window and saw the television, tall and looming. He forgot for a second that those things no longer had knobs to twist, or tabs to pull on. The show on was a garish display of Americana. The characters, a thin, lanky father and his precocious young daughter were talking. The father said "Well all I have to do is go to the video store and explain the whole mix-up to him. It should all straighten out." Then camera three showed the daughter taking a quick, meaningless sip from her brightly coloured cup while she said "Oh yeah, I'm real sure that'll work out smoothly," while the audience laughed. The couple in the house laughed as well, the woman saying "she too cute nuh." Winston didn't understand why that was a joke, and why the girl pronounced 'real' the way she did. Frankly, he thought the girl rude and in need of discipline. Winston darted his eyes around as he got on the road again. The houses were aglow as everyone sat to enjoy the night-time entertainment. One house had an action movie showing, the volume up to amazing levels, explosions rattling out of the surround sound speakers. Winston still had no idea where these people he grew up with were getting the money for this from. He walked up some cement steps to the side door of a house and tapped lightly. "Who it is?" went the voice inside. "De out-man." replied Winston. The door opened. Sergeant Douglass Sergeant stood up in the bathroom stall of the district police station squeezing the last bit of urine from his penis into the toilet with his finger-tips. He walked out the stall and looked at himself in the mirror. His face was round and a rich brown. His teeth had begun to yellow, from the coffee he had started drinking two years prior once he had signed on for this night-shift. He smiled just to see what he looked like when he smiled. He squinted his eyes at the mirror. He slapped his stomach that was becoming prominent now. "More sit-ups" he murmured. Then, he took out his night stick in the empty bathroom. He held it up to his face while still staring at the mirror. He walked left to right holding the stick to his mouth, and then danced, pivoting from one foot to the other, then sang-whispered some songs "Haiti I'm sorry, We misunderstood you, But one day we'll turn around, and look inside you." then "Jah ras-tafri parro-jammo creator of rhythm and tempo..." then he quickly stuffed his stick into his holster as Constable Henry Yarde pulled down the handle of the door to enter.

 Robert's house was a small board house in a side path that you had to walk through light grass to get to. It smelled of a damp smoke, and the curtains were not changed regularly. Still, the floor was cleaned and the kitchen table was clear, except for a scale sitting by the corner. A radio was on in the bedroom, with an ad telling people about preventing a mosquito problem. The wind picked up a little bit causing the window curtains to rise and fall like when you put on bed sheets and you raise it up and it comes down on the flat bed slowly and cautiously. The wind made Winston look around in his chair. "Don't worry Winston." "I cahn help but worry. I ain't expect de wind to rise like dat usually it wouln't be suh dramatic at this time o' de year." "True." Robert said. Then, "you hungry?" "Yeah man." "I got de food in de oven. It was off for a while, you want me to heat it up?" "Nah jus' bring it here." Winston replied. Robert came back with a plate with more rice than anything else, vegetables, onions browning in the gravy. Robert looked at Winston as he ate. He moved his mouth quickly, but scooped up the rice slowly. He looked straight ahead at the wall as he ate. His hands were hardened, fingernails down to the skin and smooth. But his eyes. The eyes Robert saw up close were the same eyes that everyone saw staring up at them from the newspaper whenever Winston escaped from prison, or when he almost got caught again. Some may tell you that Winston became a folk hero because people didn't believe he did it, and they might be right, but only partially so. Because when you see those eyes that pleaded simply by staring ahead it sent out a secondary emotion of pity along with interest. It made one believe that this guy running for his life in God knows where, hopping on boats and stowing away in the hinterland of some island could be your son, or brother, or somebody. No one felt sympathy for hard featured Peter Bradshaw. Even the two youngsters Barry Jack and Sylvian Clarke got no care because they looked like the type of boys that stole your bicycle while you were in the rum shop. No matter how tattered Winston looked in those snapshots of him being carted off by police, his flopping over-bearing locks and all, it could never stop those eyes from peering through at you. Winston would probably kill you at this point if it came down to it, would definitely steal your computer to pay for passage out the island if he could, but for most people, he was just a boy that got turned into a criminal. A hare forced to scrap through the forest while the wolves descended a-growl. None of this has to be true, very little of it even has to make sense. The resultant was that Winston Hall became our folk-hero, our Billy the Kid, our Robin Hood (provided he just stole from the rich plantation fellow), our real life, living, breathing, crazy, exhausted Br'er Rabbit. "Ya got any plans cook up Winston?" Robert asked as he cleaned up his plate. Winston looked up and blinked at him, maybe thinking, maybe just looking. "I got a idea or two is all but most differently I...just gine try to keep moving." he said.

 The two relaxed and talked about their day.  Winston had little to talk about, while Robert talked lightly about world events that might mean something to Winston, or maybe, might be funny to him. He laughed a slight laugh at some moments, and at others remained silent and motionless.  Sometimes he might make a random comment about wanting pussy, other moments he talked about his school days, stories Robert had heard already, but politely listened again.

"Sometimes I is envy you Winston."

"Why de hell you envy me?"

"Man people know bout you.  Nobody ain't know 'bout me.  You is de most famous man in Bim.  More famous then de Prime Minister."

"Maybe," Winston began, "but wha dah mean for me?  Is not like I could run fuh Prime Minister or, or open ah business down Swan Street wif my popularity.  I was reading a book on criminals when I was in Trinidad.  De term fuh criminals like me ain't 'famous', it is 'infamous' - I famous for being bad.  People would smile with me, but call de police in a heartbeat as well. People ain't care 'bout me really."

"You really 'tink so Winston?  People care 'bout you man.  People still believe you ain't deserve nuh death sentence man.  Most people woulda try to escape too.  Dem wid you."

"I doan’ agree.  People like rules too much.  Dey want to believe that everyting would work out right if dey follow de rules.  Until of course tings go bad and dey got to do tings to survive, then they realise.  I mean it is just like, like...Robert you know how prison is man, they got people that deserve to be there, and they got people who jus' catch a bad break.  A lot o' dem get sell out by they family and friends.  A lot of Barbados like to rely on other people - de government, dey foolish husband, policemen, or somebody.  I ain't nuh genius, but I feel that if a bunch o' people meet me, almost all o' dem would go and call de police cuz dey get tell so.  Won't even tink as to why dey doing it."

"That is you fear talkin Winston.  Barbadians care man.  That is you fear," Robert said, while getting up and fishing in the fridge to refresh their beers.  Winston stared ahead at the wall all that time, and when Robert returned to the table and opened the beers with his keychain he began again.

"Somebody is be talking in my head," Winston began, "I doan’ know who it is, it could be my fear telling me all these tings, or it could be my smarts.  Whoever it is, it telling me hide from everyone.  Last time I was comfortable was in Trinidad wid that woman."

"You did love that woman Winston?" Robert asked.

"Yeah, I did love she.  De love turn me different.  I guess love is do that. "

"If you hadn't get caught doin' foolishness..."

"It wasn't foolishness, it was my heart getting de best of me."

"Alright if you didn't get caught following you heart, you feel you woulda live there forever?" Robert asked.  Winston thought and then looked down at the table.

"Maybe. I love this island, but I was comfortable there.  Here my mind is mek me paranoid and nervous.  I jus' cut off from this place.  I might be de most famous man here, but I don't know much bout it Robert.  Trinidad was where tings did at least seem normal. Cuz, for a lil' moment, there was love."  Winston said.

 Winston lightly clapped onto his shin the side of the collins that Robert gave him on his departure as a plastic bag with fruit lightly cheered by his thigh. Overhead the moon went through the trees with an unmistakable sharp glow, features on the face of it like birth-marks, and were one to walk under the leaves of the breadfruit and mango trees and look up, the way that Winston was at the time, the moon might seem to twinkle its pock-marked light to you.  The houses were mostly silent at this point of the night, week-days it was this way. The insects called out into the darkness, creating an instinctual and perpetuating siren, as each insect, perched on their nocturnal pedestal, found a simple and eternal occupation.

 Miriam found the insects creepy.  When the night-noises reached her ear they were not received as a wafting tone poem of tones, but simply murky tension outside the car window on her ride home. Mr. Holford, who worked at the supermarket across the road from the hotel, and who would drop her home in the late night, and tell her smiling stories of the hopeless, irritable and easily confounded customers and employees of the supermarket, and who also would make fumbling compliments of her hair and necklace and would understand when Miriam declined his invites to concerts and exhibitions, and who would stare at Miriam’s rocking buttocks as she walked away from his car after smilingly thanking him, would then beep his car horn as he drove off softly.

 What is that? A car horn. Get behind this house. Make sure that all the lights are off in this house you leaning against. Your knee is okay tonight don’t worry. Who is that there walking?  It’s her. Her hair is frazzled a bit.  Her hips are so gentle.  How does she look so untouched up here in Suriname?  Almost all these women look run-down, chipped at the edges, shaken about a bit.  She’s different.  She is like one of those dreams you have in de morning when ya almost wake up and ya coul’ swear it real but ya is wake up in de grass and ya look around and realise it is de same as yesterday, but ya is put ya hand together and thank God that you coul’ still dream, cuz if not you probably would’ve drowned youself a long time ago.  Wait. Look at her eyes, all open wide in this night.  Is she surprised?  Is she looking for something?  No. No, look.  She’s scared.  Shite you just slip. Hide!  you just made a noise.

 Winston hid behind the house steadying himself with his forearms while Miriam stopped walking and just stared at the direction of the stumble-sound.  In the porous night where most things are hidden but some things escape stood the two, Winston peeping, Miriam listening.

“Who-w-who there?” she asked, amazingly evenly.  Winston paused.

“Nobody. Just a man. I ain’t gine hurt you.” Winston finally said, secreted behind the side of the house.

“You was waiting for me right?”  Miriam said into the night “I ain’t got no lotta money. I work hard t-this , um today. But tek it, tek d-de money, just don’t ra…”

“I ain’t wait for you .  I was jus’ walking through.”

“Then why you was hiding?”  she asked, not rudely, not accusatorily, but simply curiously.  Silence.  She then asked for his name but Winston stretched the silence, pressed rough against the side of the house.  Miriam took a step forward on the road and then listened, and then looked around as Winston crouched low.  He squinted his eyes at the woman taking tentative steps on the road and opened his mouth to say something, anything, to perhaps welcome her into his secret, or to tell her an outrageous and comforting lie while escorting her home, but instead he held firm and watched Miriam walk down the road quickly and determinedly into the shrouding night.

 Through the grass Winston walked, mainly by memory, through the trees that cradled things to sleep and by the edge of a craggy pasture, pocking rocks and dirt with his boots and collins, and in this heavy chaos is where he crouched down and laid by his supplies and run-ragged possessions.  Up into the air he looked, at the wavy and dreamy clouds, barely hiding the wide moon out tonight, and he thought of rushing things, and impoverished motionless things that loomed in his head as always, and then sometimes he would listen and listen as the night-time serenaded, or mocked him perhaps.

 There he slept, back used to the flat earth, dreams sliding in and out of the thoughts. He dreamt of the children in Trinidad & Tobago, the woman’s children that he was around a lot.  He dreamt about his stern lashes he gave them, and he dreamt of him teaching them how to make bow and arrows out of coconut leaves, sharpening the stem into an arrow-point using an old razor from a broken pencil sharpener.  He then dreamt of a hot fire, and of him running, and running, and running, and then floating and flying through the trees away from the fire up and above Trinidad, looking down at the twinkling lights that families would leave on at times. He then thought of when he was captured there, and the children looked at him and asked “Tony, ya ‘un come back?” to which Winston looked at them softly with those doomed eyes of his, and shook his head no, his heavy locks floundering over and about his shoulders.

 This is your life now.  This is your life.  Look at it. Look at the shadows of dem trees.  Doan worry.  We’ll get another plan together.  Remember Robert had said there might be a guy that could get pay off to smuggle you on that boat?  Something will always come up, you just have to hold on until then.  The same thing day in and out until your ship comes in. You know you got what other people doan got.  You got de discipline.  What? Man you gine got to forget about that girl, about this whole fucking country in fact. Just stay down.  Just stay out here, Robert gine set tings in motion. Man doan let you emotions get de better of you.  Look I know she look good.  I know she comforting.  I know you could use some of that comfort.  But let it go.  This is your life now.  This is your life now.  Look at the dark grass over there.  You could stash some things there.  You got to go over to get those carrots from that plot of land.  That is what you think of.  You get as close as you could.  This is your life.  Winston sit down. Winston-

 Winston got up and looked at the slow clouds, then back towards the little line of houses down the grassy slope.  He took up his new cutlass, and walked, shaky, unsure and for the first time in a long time, scared.

 Sergeant Douglass Sergeant walked around the district police station.  He was testy and bored.  He thought about being on the front page of the newspapers quoting something about some murder case he thought up in his mind.  At least a good burglary case involving a well-known minister or a beloved person in the media.  He would tell the reporters, in the most pleasant of voices, about the dangerous circumstances of the whole ordeal.  He thought joyfully of the microphones, of the notebooks scratched with details, of the television cameras with their dull shine on the lens.  In fact, he was drawing a complex, Eiffel Tower looking antennae on his note-book when Orville Lowell came up to him to challenge him to a healthy round upon round of x and os.

 Eagerly Sergeant would scrawl his x in the corner to begin his winning play he had read of in a book dedicated to these puzzles called ‘Tic-Tac-Toe for Winners!’ that he had picked up in a store adjacent to a hotel on the south coast of the island.  He grinned playfully at Lowell, and then at the page as the younger Lowell tried uselessly to circumvent the inevitable.

 The grass slid against the boots of Winston as he walked down the hill.  The rocks, loose on the dirt moved with a murmuring tumble as Winston kicked them or stepped on them on his way down.  He would arch his head, to see through trees and branches, calculating his path towards a house he had never been to, had never scouted out in advance, had never thought of going to until the recent wanderings of his mind.  Overhead the clouds were soft in their movements and the wind was cool against his old shirt and his face, run ragged by years, decades in fact, of worrying in a harsh, coarse manner, and decades of regret.

 Stop this.  Stop this. Stop this I say!

 Miriam opened the door to her son’s room and watched the young boy curled into the edge of his bed, but a calm curl.  He did not claw the bed-sheets like when she would look in on him after the arguments. This was a motionless slumber, a reprieve from the day at school where he was beaten for trying to cheat on his times-table test, and where Janice Peters, the girl he had pleasing thoughts about, laughed at him when he fell down darting between the trees.  He looked up at her as she laughed and then she walked over to him, helping him up as he dusted off his short pants, saying to him “doan cry, you gine get better”, and then she walked away.  Miriam closed the door slowly, the shadow of the door looming slowly over the bed until it darkened the entire room.  She pulled off her shoes and clothes and just laid in the bed, churning her mind as to who that could have been hiding behind the house, desperate not to be seen, and from whence did he come from.  She felt helpless, but also, for no reason, wondered if that man was helpless as well, adrift with no one to answer to, or to answer for.  

 She didn’t exactly want to help him, but rather, to understand him, where he came from, what had him out there at that hour, and what had him so scared, like her. She thought that perhaps he was hiding from the same dark permutations that she supposed existed in those bushy trees and grass up the hill.  Perhaps the world had ravaged him to such a degree that even the plaintive claps of a woman’s shoe-heel on the dirty ground scared him.  She surmised that his mind saw something horrible in people, and that sight drove him to cower noisily, with mouth agast, like in the movie she saw once where the man saw which people were holy, and which were demons of the devil. If only he stared long enough she thought, then maybe he would see that she was no clawed harlot, but that she was as scared as he was, distrustful of the very nature of people as he was, that she acknowledged the way that love spoiled into vengeful control after a long enough time, disappointing her as she was sure it did him, that poor man clawed and scared behind some wooden house, with the taunting night and the duppies all around him.

 Winston stood behind the bare tamarind tree and solidified his approach: he would climb the low pailing surrounding the neighbouring mini-mart and then squeeze through the space he saw on that hill into her premises, and then softly, patiently, meekly tap the windows of the woman’s house until she awoke and then calm her with his eyes and tell her all that was in his foolish heart about her beauty, her unassuming grace, her glad-eyed son, and his own drifting life, polluted with his frenzied volition and shame.

 He arrived at the galvanized pailing, creeping unsure like he had by the Plantation House where this whole legend began twenty or so years ago.  He jumped up to grab the top, but at that moment, his knee shifted around itself, causing him to fall and hit the outside base with a small thump.

 Miriam then heard a thump, small but real.  She startled up and looked out the window at the night.  She surveyed her little back-yard and saw nothing.  She looked at the next door neighbour and saw the stillness she expected.  She supposed it was a dog or cat bumping against the pailing, but she kneeled there on the bed, looking out at the trees that waved in the slight wind.  And then she gasped, her body tensing up uniformly as if expecting a blow at primary school, as if she caught the Holy Spirit at church, as if she was giving birth at the hospital, as she saw a dark man crawling on top of the neighbour’s pailing.

 The District Police Station’s phone rang twice.  The officer listened, grumbled his questions to the caller while scribbling notes, and then he looked at the two men playing and arguing about the 1987 Calypso Finals results.

 I understand you have a fancy towards her but this is no reason to do this.  Think about your knee.  Think about this pulsating, devious pain that moves from your knee towards the rest of your body.  I can’t stop you can I?  I want to. I want you to walk up that slope and disappear into those trees like you have since you came back to this part of the island. Stop thinking of her…you can’t can you? Your beautiful sin.  A booming voice tells you not to eat of the tree, don’t eat that fruit, but you have to, because that woman tells you to right? Right there, is when love, the way we know it, was created.  He looked towards the sky, looking the way that the sky looked now, a combination of tribulation and creation, the way four o’ clock has always looked, and Adam looked at the sky and chose love over unknowable punishment the way poor you from Suriname will choose it.  

 Winston jumped and swung his leg over the tall pailing and fell to the ground.  He looked around the new surroundings and squinted his eyes to see where the path to Miriam’s house would be.  He walked but then fell wordlessly in the soft darkness, soft because of the approaching morning that would shed light to the physicality of this all but never to the motivation, never to the chirping collaborators of the late night, and never to the love that occurred here.

 Sergeant Douglass Sergeant turned the car onto the street where Miriam lived in a careful arc.  Two others were with him – Lowell, the defeated tic-tac-toe player, and Constable Henry Yarde, a young man new to the police force who swore to his dying grandmother that he would do something useful with his life, and as she felt the dying in her along with the heat, the young man pressed his face into her scratchy, paper hands and thanked her for reforming him.  Sergeant knocked softly on Miriam’s door and the door opened silently creating a tension.  “I-I was just looking out my window when Jesus Christ I see a man jump over de pailing of’ de mini mart.”

“Okay yes this we know.” Sergeant whispered, “but in the time it tek for we to get here, you inform de owners o’ de mini mart?”

“Yeah, I call up Jackie and tell she.  She is de daughter. I call she up cuz I know that she cell phone don’t got a loud ring. It does mostly buzz.”

“Good. Good thinking.” Sergeant said. The young policeman looked at her while her gaze was towards Sergeant.  The woman was terrified.  To Yarde, her eyes were a-blaze with fear, unblinking and beautiful.  The wind would pick up for a couple seconds and he would look at her old T-shirt against her widening waist.  He wanted to comfort her and to tell her lies to calm her and after he kissed her, look at her in the morning sun and tell her truth after truth. Meanwhile Sergeant looked at the woman he briefly consoled at Kevin’s funeral and took down the information, caring little for her fear, taking it only to mean that the criminal was a large man. Perhaps he committed more crimes throughout the countryside he theorised.  Perhaps he could come up with a name of the man for the reporters to put on the front page - “countryside killer”, “de slasher”, and then “de jungle demon”.

 The banana tree in the back flopped as Winston leaned against it, slowly putting and then taking weight off of his knee.  He looked around again, and saw that the space leading to the woman’s house was wider than he thought.  He swept his heavy locks back and wiped his brow with his old shirt, and then held his cutlass like you would an eccentric cane and said out to the abdicating night “Hello.  My name is Winston.  People say I do some tings – some o’ dem I do, but some o’ dem I didn’t.  I tink I love you, but I ain’t sure, so, what is you name?”, then he shifted again in the craggy dirt and said “Good night, my name is Winston and I tink I love you. But wha so is you name?” Then he scraped the ground with his cutlass/ bejewelled cane and said “Even if you scared of me I want you to know that I love you.  My name is Winston Hall.  Yes, my name is Winston Hall and I am not ashamed.”

         Yarde walked into Miriam’s house, squinted his eyes and looked back, asking “Ma’am, is there a way we could get from where you live to de mini-mart owner house?”

“Yes. They got a lil’ path that is connect we.”

“Do we just get out into your back-yard and just turn right?”

“Yes, yes, yes ya is just turn right.” She whispered.  Yarde looked at Sergeant Sergeant, who then slid his right hand between his waist and the leather of his pistol.  “Yeah, we gine go in she yard and surprise he, cuz he think he hard, but we gine light up he ass.” And with that he walked through the length of Miriam’s house, walking as if he owned it with no heeding to any decorum, because whatever decorum that was expected usually – whether you took your shoes off or letting the lady walk in front – would mean nothing once police were in your house, partly because of all the urgency in this and partly because of your status in the country.  If it were a rich mover and shaker like a Goddard or a Williams, they would’ve at least asked if they could be shown the way through the house by the head of the house. Miriam noticed this, but pursed her lips because of this expected acquiescence that policemen’s widows exhibited always.

         The sky was still dark, but still becoming lighter on the upper edges of the sky.  Between Winston and the gate to Miriam’s house was a small, easily hop-able fence that separated the small garden that Winston stood upon, and the concrete that led to the back of the mini-mart.  He leaned against the soft banana trees and looked up as the leaves crowded the round and glowing moon, its shining glow fading as the sun began to make its approach upon the island.

         It combs the light of the moon.  Look at the moon being obstructed by the light slice of the banana leaves, the distant craters and darkness of the moon that suggest another place for us humans to go to and make simple at first with our enviable industry, then only to advertise to the people about the advantages of such a place, and then imagine escaping to a place where the best went to the roughest, just like in the westerns you like so much.  Feel that wind.  Understand it.  Believe that it holds a great new thing for you to encounter.  Feel the wind, pregnant with the exhalations of generations of Barbadians and tourists.  Tell yourself you love it.  The people inside of you.  Imagine that they tell stories to their children about you.  Believe that someone is printing out protest banners for you. Hail the goodness that has gotten you this far, that has made you believe in the gospel of survival through the mere occurrence of actions.  Worship the…

 “Freeze, ya rassole cunt.”

“Doan come close.”

“I gine got ta come close.  Cuz see I is de big bad woodsman coming to capture all o’ wunna wolves.  Ya fucking wolves.”

“You sound like you been thinking a lot about what you gine say before you capture somebody.”

“Hush you fuckin’ mouth!” Sergeant Sergeant barked.

“You even know why I here?”  Winston asked. “I ain’t here to steal.  I here for love.  I here to say something to a woman.  Something that I should have said a long time ago.  Let me through so I could tell her.”

“Put down de cutlass son.  I doan know if you got a crush or you in love but come along and we could sort this out.” Sergeant Sergeant said, his hand out-stretched, on the concrete away from the man.

“I tink I love she.”

 Okay run into the trees and then use the trunk of the trees to jump up to the pailing.  You could leap over and be gone before these policemen come.  We could get de dog and be gone from this parish by noon.  Just run and jump!  Your knee will be okay.  You can’t wrestle the policemen to the ground.  You have to retreat.  Run off. Run off into de wild.  Just do a lil’ jump an’ run.  Jus’ do it calm.

 Winston shifted back and looked at the imposing height of the pailing that he could jump over, he supposed.  He saw the three policemen, and he saw them spread out to be of proper use. Winston gripped his cutlass stronger, his arms tensing and straight.

 Then he saw her.  She peeped through the passageway, furtively of course, but he saw her, her great, rounded eyes, her dense, brown skin, filled with a swirling system of emotions by now, brown with the approaching sun.  She was pitied more than admired in her neighbourhood, and the tourists at the hotel were too caught up in the cocaine and flowers of the island to sit and study the beauty of this woman pushing past their rooms.  This perky Barbadiana, full of egregious glee, of blind fear and hate, who went undetected by the visitors, but always constant to this visitor Winston.  He knew no other recourse, could surmise nothing else but the accomplishment of these heated ideas that singed him in the dark.

 He ran towards the policemen.  The shot rang out with a sharp and ranging flight, like the flight of crows.  Winston slumped back, and then lunged forward towards Miriam while the young policeman Yarde shot again.  Winston fell back, squirming at first and then laying still, letting his shoulder-blades touch the ground, and listening to the arched sobbing of the mini-mart owner and Miriam go over the country-side, which was now becoming lighter with this new Age, supplanting the previous Age that began as the Union Jack went down and our flag went up, and ended as the man, arched and crackling on the ground, began to cough his last coughs about love, heard only by the mini-mart owners, the policemen, Miriam, and the curious primary school boy, who stood with his arms folded, staring through the open glass window of his room, with its colour coming alive again in the morning light.

THE END

𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭  𝐳𝐨.

*/ EMILY RATAJKOWSKI , 23 , CIS FEMALE , SHE/HER . i just watched dean matthews pull zoyenka voznesensky into his office. maybe it has something to do with them being a member of phi alpha phi. yeah, i spoke to zo a few times. they’re a senior studying business administration. apparently they’re from new york city, new york. maybe that’s why they’re so vexing and audacious, i don’t know, man. all i know is they’re always listening to needed me by rihanna. / jocey , 23, est, she/her .

ayyyye ya girl is back with her second bby, zo. apologizing in advance for the terror that is zoyenka. she is truly the worst™. hit that like button & i’ll slide into dem dms real quick. 

name : zoyenka voznesensky ( will not acknowledge you if you can’t pronounce her name. true story. ) nickname : zo age : twenty-three sexuality : pansexual hometown : new york city, new york chapter : phi alpha phi major : business administration  extracurriculars : cheerleading ( base ), dance team, mock trial

━  the voznesensky’s didn’t always have a net worth of millions. with humble beginnings in saint petersburg, russia, the family moved to america a couple generations ago to expand their distillery business. it was only then did the family-run business grow by producing, shipping and selling their premium vodka brand and maybe some other less than legal products too. eventually they got into the nightlife entertainment business as well, through acquiring and running several bars, clubs and lounges on the east coast.

━  as the second and youngest child born to dimitri and natalia, it was never in the books for zoyenka to take over the family business. a traditional man, her father had always groomed her older brother, alek, to be his successor. her father’s bias always left her feeling bitter and resentful, and only drove her ambitions and determination to prove him wrong. the more he kept her at arm’s length, the more driven she was to find an in.

━  unfortunately, her mother, a socialite/philanthropist herself, also had different plans for her - something along the lines of debutante and her daughter following in her footsteps. from being forced into piano lessons, ballet and etiquette classes, zo absolutely despised the person her family wanted to mold her into. the only things she didn’t mind as much were the gymnastics and language lessons ( russian, french, spanish & italian ). both stubborn in wanting to get their way, their differences pulled their mother-daughter relationship further and further apart.

━  even her mom’s passing when she was 12 did little to change zo’s opinion in the matter. she didn’t care about the woman’s death, nor did it affect her whatsoever, and she will gladly tell anyone that. but the fact that she accepted her offer at NEU and pledged phi alpha, her mom’s sorority, may hint at something different. despite now being a part of greek life, she still doesn’t buy into any of the sisterhood crap and thinks it’s all just a load of BS. but of course, that didn’t stop her from wanting to be president, if only for the power.

━  a hustler with an alpha bitch mentality, she’s always outsmarting people and outsmarting the system to get things to work in her favour. and when that didn’t work, no one could ever say no to a big fat wad of cash. because zoyenka voznesensky never loses. she doesn’t just play the game, she owns it, makes the rules and wins. every. damn. time. does she think she’s better than everyone? without a doubt.

━  zo swears by the belief that playing by the rules was for suckers and if you weren’t the best, then you were nothing at all. and sometimes being the best required playing dirty. if she has to ruin someone else’s life to get her way, then she will gladly pour a jug of gasoline, light a match and enjoy watching it go up in flames. hell, sometimes she’ll do that just purely for her own enjoyment.

━  with that mentality, it’s no surprise that zo was on track to becoming phi alpha’s president. but it was also her ambition that screwed herself over in the end. last year, an all too eager zo wanted a quick loophole to move from vice president to president because she just didn’t want to wait another year. so, she framed the then-president for stealing funds from the sorority, but was consequently busted, removed as VP and put on probation.

━  after that debacle, zo decided to do an exchange program in france for a semester, as a way to escape the aftermath. now she’s back with her head held high, still one month on probation, and ready to move on. but then again, why take the high road when the low road is so much more chaotic and fun? her presidency was already taken from her, so what else was there to lose?

WANTED CONNECTIONS.

BEST FRIEND  ━  someone who can put up with zo’s awfulness, or maybe they’re just as awful as she is. this is probably one of the few people she’s actually relatively soft for ( not that she’d ever admit it ) and will always have their back. possibly even one of the few people she’ll ever let her guard down for. gimme some soft bestie feels for this cold bitch.  taken by minka kellar ( little ), kieran rhodes, alana brooks SISTERS, I GUESS  ━  zo really does not give af about all this sisterhood crap and she just doesn’t buy into any of it. but there’s bound to be a couple of phi alpha girls who have grown on her over time. perhaps someone she pledged with? she’d never admit it, but she would give a bitch the smackdown if they tried to mess with them.  taken by hannah maddison MORAL CONSCIENCE  ━  does zo even have a moral compass? your guess is as good as mine. this is someone she is more likely to listen to and could try to sway her from doing, y’know, ~*just zo things*~. kind of the angel on her shoulder? often tries to get her to be nicer and overall be a decent human being.  taken by garrett shepherd BAD INFLUENCE  ━  i’m sure even satan has a little devil on his shoulder, so zo needs one too. though more likely than not, zo’s that little devil. basically they like to stir up all kinds of trouble together, either with her egging the other person on or they both fuel each other’s bad habits.  taken by lennon winter, kamelya tansel EXES  ━  either she dumped him/her, or she was dumped ( in which case, rip my friend ). maybe there are some lingering feelings. maybe she’s still hella soft for them. could be interesting if they’re very different from zo and that’s why it didn’t work out despite the chemistry or whatever. and/or the relationship ended when she abruptly left for her exchange program. ENEMIES  ━  ho’boy. homegirl can piss off a lot of people just for shits and giggles, nor does she care to be likeable and personable, so i’m sure she’s got a hella long list of enemies/people she rubs the wrong way. also people she’s sabotaged, fucked over and manipulated to get her way? plz.  taken by leticia viterra CHILDHOOD FRIENDS  ━  pretty self-explanatory. they’ve known each other since they were kids and their parents are likely friends. maybe their moms were in phi alpha together. they can be close, or not get along at all, or maybe even an ex-friend situation.  taken by alexandria boss UNWANTED CHILD  ━  zo somehow ended up being this person’s very reluctant mom friend. she hates it, she does not want to deal with them, and yet she’ll still go pick up their drunk ass at 4am. she’s all about tough love, so while she may be super harsh and hard on them, she does it out of love and because she cares. not that she’d ever actually admit to caring.  taken by noelle faust UNLIKELY/ACCIDENTAL FRIENDS  ━  they shouldn’t get along, but somehow, they just do and their friendship works. not typically someone zo would see herself being friends with, but somehow an accidental friendship of sorts developed.  taken by lincoln hayes MUTUAL ANNOYANCE  ━  they annoy each other to no end and just live for pushing each other’s buttons. not quite a hatred, but some days, it’s pretty darn close. maybe there’s some sexual tension involved cuz that’s always the good shiet.  taken by sydney marco ( roommate ), zane wancosh HOOK-UPS/FLINGS/FWBS  ━  self-explanatory. a girl’s got needs. whether she actually likes you as a person or not, if you’re hot, then you’ll do the job. rip why is she like this. we can make it angsty or not because tbh zo can be pretty possessive sometimes, so y’knOW.

okay, that’s all i can think of off the top of my head. some plots i’m open for multiple characters to fill, unless it has been crossed out. and ofc, i’m always open to new ideas too!

Forbidden - Part 3 (Dimon Romantic)

The story can also be found on Wattpad You can find the previous chapters here Feedback is greatly appreciated. I went to the bathroom and finally took the much needed shower from the night before. The whole dorm was still densely filled with the smoky-alcoholic scent so I also made sure to open all the windows and doors to get some fresh air in there. “Got any suggestions where to go?” – I yelled through the bathroom door before starting the shower. “How does Starbucks sound?” – Chelle replied from her room. “Works for me.” – I said back and proceeded to wash my body Starbucks was both Chelle and I’s favorite spot for a morning coffee, the café was located in a very nice area, quite close to the centre and was easy to get there on foot from the dorm. The smell there was also blissful, nothing better than a banana cake to match the strong coffee aroma. It was the best time to go out and sit there, especially on such sunny days when the tables outside were available. On the not so bright side though, we could only go there like 2 times per week without going bankrupt. I love those guys but man, are they an expensive place. At the end of the day, I am a student and that meant being on a strict budget and having zero freedom. I put my hair in a high ponytail, and quickly put on a pair of jeans and my favorite oversized t-shirt saying “I’m sorry for what I said when I was hungry”, a present from my sister Dallas, the second biggest weirdo on this planet after me. I noticed I also had dark circles under my eyes, so now the choice was either for some make up or for the big sunglasses. “Demi, are you ready?” – I hear Chelle asking, meaning she was done with her preparations. Well, it will be the sunglasses, then. “Yup, a second” – I replied, putting the last few pins on my hair and spraying a bit of perfume around my neck. “Okay, let’s go” – I told her, letting go of my door handle and going to the front door. The way to the café was a short 10-minute long walk, but we could still notice some leftovers from the few parties that were hosted yesterday. The most common type of garbage was the occasional McDonalds’ huge paper bag or Subway’s sandwich wraps and napkins. It looked as if the rubbish bags were out of stock in this country, a horrible mess. We reached the coffee shop and picked a nice cozy table in the corner on the right. Thankfully not too many people had come yet so the tables outside were still not all taken. Our seats weren’t in the middle of the hustle and bustle if I may call it like that, yet they were also close to the inner part of the café so we wouldn’t need to walk too much with the purchases in our hands. Chelle and I sat on the table and we both started flipping the pages of the menus, as if we didn’t know it all by heart by now. I was certainly gonna be having a frappe today, it was hot AF and the alcohol was still running in my system, so I was sweating like a mine worker. Not the biggest fan of ice coffee, but the situation was of a pressing matter. I turned a few pages further, the breakfast items didn’t look too bad either, the question was if I was actually hungry or just wanted to have a snack though. I thought about having a coffee cake, but that usually bloated me up a lot, so I would rather have the white chocolate chip cookie. It was not too heavy and it usually did cover me well when the sweet tooth hit me with cravings, so I was good with it. “Alright, I can go in there and get the stuff, can you stay here and keep the table?” – Chelle asked a few minutes later. “Yeah that’s cool. Can you get me a frappe and a chocolate chip cookie, with white chocolate chunks though?” “Sure, be right back. Watch my stuff there.” “Here, take 10, should be just enough” – I handed her the bill. Chelle went inside and I plopped myself back on my chair. The day was beautiful; lots of the students from our uni or the few others in town were out as well. Sunday was the day of procrastination and it did hold a very truthful rule for students: If you put it off for Sunday, it won’t happen, dude. At some point a pretty loud noise for my still hangover head came from the road. I turned around to see a black car pull over on the other side of the street. It was a type of car that was pretty rare to notice in Boston or in the states in general, quite low over the road and with a foreign registration plate. It did resemble a very familiar car that I had definitely paid attention to before. If you’d ever watched “Gone in 60 seconds”, then you would know it too – a British Jaguar. How did I know? That was Marissa’s favorite movie and therefore my least favorite one, because we’d watched it like a billion times. The only difference here was that this car was a lot newer – a model I couldn’t name for sure. I kept my gaze on and saw the person on the driving seat fidgeting with something and then opening the door. The driver stepped out, but kept his head towards the car. It seemed as if he was looking for something, until he finally found it and grabbed it from inside. I wondered what it was like to have that much money and to be able to afford such comfort. Surely I was now in a position where finances were not the greatest developing aspect of my life, but that would change later on hopefully. I would love to buy stuff without having to look at the price tag and not worry about it. Just to be impulsive, like: a Jaguar? Yes, please. That car was worth about a million dollars last time I checked. I re-focused my look over to the driver and realized I had seen this man before. Not only that, I had actually known him and already spoken to him. That was Mr. Cowell, my Music Production lecturer. And also the man whose car - probably one of his many, I kicked. And if that wasn’t awkward enough, the man I had the audacity to call ‘a fool’. He was very casually dressed this time – in just a white t-shirt and some jeans, no trace of the formal black blazer he was wearing at the university. He was also wearing a pair of dark ray-bans and was puffing on a cigarette, whilst slowly making his way to internal part of the café. At this point I actually wondered what the best thing to do was: hide from him behind my bag, bury my face in my phone and pretend I never saw him, greet him with a simple nod or step into the dangerous zone of another possible embarrassment and talk to him. In case you wondered why would I talk to him – because I wanted to apologize!? If my math was right, he would be my lecturer for quite some time, and feeling this awkward for so long was something I’d rather pass. Anyway, the problem here was that instead of actually following one of the scenarios I thought of, I was doing probably the worst I could have right now – I was looking, actually I was staring at him as if I was bewitched, with my mouth slightly opened and my chin propped onto the fingers of my hand. Good thing was I was still wearing my sunglasses and so was he, so there was still a chance he didn’t just catch me watching him like some weirdo. He reached the entrance of the café, took the cigarette off his mouth and dogged it in an ashtray on a nearby table on the porch. Once he pinched it off, he carefully lifted his gaze and for a moment looked into my direction. My immediate reaction was to look down for good 3-4 seconds, only to make my sunglasses fall down and hear the cracking sound of them hitting the ground. So much for your strategies, Demetria. I clumsily moved the table to pick them up and saw he was getting inside once I did. My face went deep red; could this have gone any more wrong? I silently hoped there was someone else his eyes were on, but when I looked around, there was no one neither behind me nor closer than 2 tables away. So chances were somewhere between very small and absolute zero. “Sorry I took so long, but there is such a long line, and oh they wrote my name wrong on the cup, so they had to change it…” – Chelle said coming to me, almost out of breath, putting the purchases on our table and taking her seat. “There you go with your drink and the cookie” – She said again, handing me my items. “Thanks Chelle.” - I said kind of distracted. “Since when are you a fan of frappes?” – She asked me. “Yeah I’m not but now it is a bit hot so I will try it out.” – I said, taking my sunglasses off and waving my hand to bring some wind to my still heated face. “Are you alright? You look nervous.” – Chelle asked. “No, nothing” – I replied, mixing my drink with the straw. A few minutes later I saw Mr. Cowell coming out on the porch from the inside part of the café, carrying two cups of coffee, only this time it was not just him, now he was accompanied by a tall blond female. She was wearing a short grey skirt and a top that was outlining her boobs quite clearly. She looked as if she was taken straight out of a magazine cover. I wondered if this was the type of women he was into. They made their way outside and quickly chose their seats, a single table distance across from us. I was facing her back and his seat was positioned in a way that we both could see each other directly. I now started to regret taking my shades off. “Dems, come on, what is it? You seem kind of lightheaded.” – Chelle asked me once again. “How come?” “You seem to not even be listening to me?” “I am, sorry, it is just…” – I said uncomfortably, looking at Simon’s table and then back at her. “What?” “I will tell you, but promise me you won’t look” – I warned in a very quiet voice. “Not look at what?” “Shhh! Okay, Mr. Cowell is sitting right across our table” “What? Where? ” – Chelle asked a lot louder than I would’ve preferred. A few people from the other tables turned their heads towards us. “Don’t shout, he’s going to hear you! There, right behind you.” - I yell-whispered at her. Chelle slowly turned her head, pretending to be fixing her hair and noticed him along with the woman that was sat on the same table. “Woah, talking about appropriate skirts” – She commented, lifting her eyebrows in amusement. “I know.” – I replied, doing the same grimace. “Are you alright?” – She asked me. “Sure, just surprised, though” – I shrugged my shoulders. “Anyway, so tell me about the guy from yesterday, he texted you in the morning didn’t he?” – I asked her, pointing at her phone. Although I had no interest in the guy she hooked up with yesterday, I knew I had to change the topic. I couldn’t possibly talk about Simon the whole afternoon; I mean who talked about their lecturers all the time? Not even geeks did. I asked Chelle more about him, letting her show me photos of them together from last night and share some unnecessary details for me to know. She was quite caught up onto the subject, and despite the fact I should have probably listened to her, I didn’t. I was barely paying attention to her and was occasionally nodding just to confirm I was a part of the conversation. My mind was busy with the man sitting on the table behind my friend. There were two factors creeping into my head constantly though: One was the common sense, telling “He is your lecturer” and two was the guilt, following with “Why is your lecturer such interest to you?” I mean how should I even define this? In general I have always been quite an impulsive person, so yelling at him on that first day we met was no surprise. Okay, the following actions were a bit too aggressive, I take that. But now what? He was offended, didn’t like me, like any other person also wouldn’t. I, on the other hand, was apparently feeling homesick; having the guy I’m in love with thousands of miles away from me, I was looking for comfort. Man’s comfort. That was the only reason behind my strange thoughts. In the meantime I noticed both Simon and the woman stood up. He pointed at the engine to her and motioned that he was going to join after going inside first. She quickly nodded and walked towards the car, whilst he went for the café bar. I followed him with my eyes before turning to Chelle. “Excuse me for a bit.” – I told her and adjusted my shirt. “Where are you going?” – She questioned surprised. “To the bathroom, be right back”- I said, leaving my seat. I got inside the café bar and saw Simon standing at the counter, placing an order for a take out. I pretended to be looking at the cakes behind the glass, standing a few feet away from him. In my ideal world, he would have turned around; I would have greeted him politely, maybe make some small talk and bring him under a somewhat good impression of me. Actually any impression that was better than the one of being a rude, aggressive bitch I had given. That was my goal right now. In reality though, after receiving his order, he was way too busy fixing the 5 items on his hands to pay any attention to me. He kept his head down the whole time, careful not to drop anything on the floor. He passed by me and did not acknowledge me even one bit, his eyes focused on the drinks. He had two drinks in each hand and a cake, which he supported against his chest. He was also mumbling something to himself while looking down, something I couldn’t fully figure out, but it was along the lines “yeah I can carry the office drinks, don’t help me”. Needless to say, I was quite disappointed of not getting the chance to talk to him. I did try to I don’t know, establish some kind of a contact, but it didn’t go as planned. To be honest, it was probably not only the lack of luck, but also the fact that he most likely didn’t want to talk to me. I couldn’t blame him, though. Perhaps it was for the better. Asking for his attention wasn’t a good idea, regardless. As I was about to make my way out to the table and Chelle, I accidentally noticed something, which looked like a small folder, standing by the edge of the counter. I looked over to the staff members, but neither of the them had noticed it yet. I guessed it was because it was left on the front side of the bar. I slowly approached the counter to see it was an open leather wallet. My first thought was to hand it over to the bartender and say I found a lost belonging. Probably what every normal human being would have done. Probably what I should have done. Instead, I decided to check it out on my own first, without giving it much of a thought. I squinted my eyes to see the beholder's name over the documents, only to confirm the doubts I'd had. On the front side of the wallet there was a driver's license, along with a photo and personal details of the beholder - Simon Philip Cowell. This time the question in my head was judged way less by morality and more by motivation. “What are you going to do about it?”

A Supercharged Recovery

A Supercharged Recovery

We have gained more conviction that the economic recovery will be supercharged and more profitable than initially thought. We expect trillions of additional stimulus, businesses to reopen soon, pent-up demand filled, employment and wage increased, inventories rebuilt, global trade improvements, and capital spending increases. What’s more, the Fed stays all in, letting the economy run hot for several years.

Don’t forget that we already have multi trillions of excess liquidity in the system with a savings rate around 14%. Individuals and businesses have a tremendous capacity to spend, and it does not hurt matters that interest rates are so low.  After listening to 75 or so fourth-quarter earnings calls, we have more conviction that operating margins/earnings/cash flow/returns on capital/equity will increase substantially over the next few years, which will support higher stock prices. We favor companies leveraged to the economy.  

The key to the sustainability of the recovery is everyone getting vaccinated. The news on that front continues to get better as we expect several new vaccines, increased availability in the hundreds of million doses range, and better logistics such that all Americans could be vaccinated by the summer and all in the world by year-end. The number of cases/deaths has peaked, which should continue as the weather warms and millions get vaccinated, getting us closer to herd immunity. We will probably need annual booster shots to sustain our immunity, which may favor JNJ’s one dose vaccine down the road.

The Democrats are focused on passing a large, additional stimulus plan one way or another by early March before some unemployment benefits expire. If reconciliation is used, we would expect the plan to be closer to $1.5 trillion, which is huge, on top of the nearly $1 trillion plan passed last month, which has not yet fully hit the economy. It did not help the Dems that the CBO came out with projections of the Federal deficit hitting $2.3 trillion for fiscal 2021, which is interestingly lower than their forecast six months ago due to a more robust economic forecast and lower interest rates.  Fortunately, low-interest rates, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, make stimulus plans more affordable. We would expect Biden’s administration to push for several trillion demand focused stimulus plans over the next twelve months, such as infrastructure, which will boost growth/employment/profits above current estimates. Hence, our supercharged recovery with significant earnings gains as volume/operating margins increase meaningfully.

Fed Chairman Powell spoke last Wednesday at the Economic Club of New York, reiterating that the Fed will continue to bolster the U.S economy through low-interest rates along with large bond purchases. The critical comment was the Fed is unlikely to “even think about withdrawing policy support” by raising rates or reducing bond purchases for the foreseeable future as long as unemployment, which he measures at 10%, is elevated. He repeated his call for more fiscal stimulus as “the essential tool for this situation.” He then emphasized that doing too little is a greater risk than doing too much. The Fed really does have our backs.

The economy may already be accelerating as openings in key states has improved over the last few weeks. Even though the recent employment data was weak (rearview mirror), weekly unemployment claims have continued to improve sequentially, which along with the most recent increase in job openings, portends better days ahead. The most recent wholesale sales/inventory data showed a further decline in the I/S ratio to 1.29, a multi-year low. We would expect the economy to benefit incrementally from the recent stimulus checks, with more on the horizon, boosting consumer demand and production. It is clear from listening to managements’ earnings presentations that the economy improved sequentially from the third quarter to the fourth quarter and again into the first quarter of 2021, even before the near $1 trillion stimuli impacted economic activity. Don’t forget that trillions more are coming in 2021. Whoa. The Fed will let it rip.

We are focused on corporate operating margins, profitability, and cash flow. Herein lies the underlying story. Management on virtually every earnings call draws attention to improving their competitive position, operating margins, cash flow, and capital/equity returns. If successful, these companies will be revalued in the marketplace and outperform the averages. Here is where hard research will pay off, which is our strength. We see most improvement off the bottom, favoring the economically sensitive companies as they will benefit from internal changes and higher operating rates/pricing power. Weak capital spending over the last few years has already led to shortages in some areas like the semis. We have entered multiyear industrial commodity and agricultural cycles, which will lead to much higher prices/profits in these areas. We are there!

Investment Conclusions

We are on the cusp of a new economic cycle as we get our arms around the coronavirus. This recovery will be supercharged as we enter with trillions of excess liquidity and additional stimulus, record-low inventory levels, substantially pent up demand, a synchronous recovery worldwide boosting trade, and a fed, as well as all monetary bodies, staying all in permitting growth to run hot. We have an administration that wants to boost growth and improve relationships abroad. At her word, we take Janet Yellen that any tax changes would not hurt our global competitive position, which is meaningful. We need to encourage employment, capital spending, and research.

We expect profit growth to be surprisingly robust over the next two years, with S&P earnings increasing from $140/share in 2020 to over $200/share in 2022 as operating margins improve from around 10% to over 12%. Corporations also focus on their cash flow and returns on capital/equity, which we expect to improve meaningfully. All of this will be good for the market, which we still find undervalued with rates so low and liquidity so high. There remains over $6 trillion in cash and money market funds and over $40 trillion in bonds, which could reallocate to some stocks since most portfolios remain underweighted equities.

Areas of concentration include global industrials/capital goods/machinery, industrial/agricultural commodities, technology, financials, transportation, and several special situations. The common thread in our holdings is great management, winning strategies, rising margins, profits, cash flow, returns on capital/equity well over the market itself—all good for sustained outperformance. We own no bond expecting the yield curve to continue steepening.

Focus your investments to ride the wave of a supercharged recovery.

Our weekly investment webinar will be held on Monday February 15th at 8:30 am EST. You can join the webinar by entering https://zoom/us/j/9179217852 in your browser or dialing +646 558 8656 and entering the password 9179217852.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset allocation with risk controls; do independent fundamental research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prosperite LLC

917-951-4139

the road to treasure, part 1.

ft. @vxctxrx and @oberoned

royce

his back was pressed against a tree that overlooked the lagoon. he watched the sun rise into the sky at an unnatural speed -- his thoughts instantly went to a lustful high as the culprit, but they corrected themselves once his body reminded them that their master was skin, bones, and sickly. because of this, royce watched as the first of three bottles fell out of the sky. "um, guys? a bottle just fell from the sky."

ember

ember was constantly on lookout, even when it wasn't his specified job to be. and so when he missed the bottle falling, he was surprised at himself and his inability to notice the fact that projectiles fell right in front of them. that being said, he hadn't always been the most observant person. "what do you think is inside?" he asked cautiously.

royce

cocking his head to the side, royce slowly got up and moved -- or, rather, crawled -- forth to get a better look at it. for a moment, he thought it was some sort of trap. but, then again, the chapstick and insect repellant hadn't been. "it... it looks like a key? like, it's so sparkly. dude, it makes the map besides it look a little--"

demelza oberon

Demelza attempted to distract from their current predicament by pretending the arena was a tropical resort. The three tributes were simply in a remote part of the island, and they had a small shelter they could return to. She could hear the two others speaking behind her but hadn't paid much mind. That was until the second parachute descended toward them. "What's going on?" She finally asked. "A sparkly key's in there? I hope whatever it opens is just as sparkly."

ember

he raised an eyebrows, slowly removing his sword from its home at his side in case there was something dangerous in the bottle. "what do you think it opens? i haven't seen anything locked anywhere on this island..."

royce

royce had stopped when demelza talked over him. instead of being offended -- which another royce carter a few weeks younger would have been obligated to be -- he continued staring at the bottle's key. slowly, surely, and completely unaware of any danger, he grabbed it, popped open the top, and poured out the contents. "it's a key and a map," he said blandly and softly to himself more to anyone else. head tilted towards the sun, royce looked for ember with squinted eyes and opened up a rather dry and parched mouth -- "maybe its for  like, y'know, buried booty... or whatever they say in those storybooks."

demelza oberon

While her previous statement had been quite senseless, Demelza hardly noticed. Her brow furrowed in deep concentration, as if she was trying to unlock the rational portion of her brain. She stood from her place by the lagoon's edge and moved closer to get a better look at the bottle. "Is there any other writing on there? Like clues of where it leads?" She asked, craning her neck to get a glimpse of the map.

ember

ember braced for impact as royce opened the bottle, and once he saw that the coast was clear, wandered over to look at his map. "hey, that looks kind of like what you got from the boat, remember? maybe it's a map of this island telling us where to go."ember refrained from making a butt joke, as much as he wanted to. the games had changed him already.

royce

nodding slowly, royce pretended to understand and remember the map he had gotten in the bloodbath. truly, the boy had already succumbed to his whimsy and forgotten all about it. "yeah... and, uh, demelza come over here. i can't hear you. you sound like a ghost."allowing his neck to tilt back, royce closed his eyes and allowed the warmth of the sun to take him to a place of uninhibited freedom.

demelza oberon

After the third bottle descended close by, Demelza scurried toward it and looked at her own map. "Well, whatever it's a map of,  the artist needs to go to some serious drawing classes." She remarked, staring at the map with confusion then heading back toward Royce and Ember. "My map looks pretty similar to yours, don't you think?" She squinted one eye to get a good look, holding hers closer to the others.

ember

ember gingerly opened his bottle, pouring the contents into his hand and observing the images on his piece of paper. "i'd say they're damn near identical. you'd think they'd want to try and split us up if they were looking for more action, right?"

royce

eyes still closed, royce muttered to himself the following unhelpful anecdote -- "haaaa... sounds like something my sister would draw. she's a terrible artist."then, suddenly, at the mention of splitting up, royce's eyes popped open and his head whirled towards his lover. "god, dude, shit... do you think they're trying to get us to fight for booty?"

ember

ember rolled his eyes, looking towards royce with a smile. "the only booty i'd fight anyone over is yours."

demelza oberon

Demelza clicked her tongue at Royce and shook her head. "Your sister can hear you, you know." It sounded silly, but she couldn't stop it from escaping her mouth. "Maybe that's the point. Maybe they want to draw us together and make us fight each other." She hypothesized, wrinkling her nose with a smile at Royce and Ember's comments toward each other. "If we weren't probably going to die, I'd say you two are cute together."

royce

"i know, dude. but that's a shame, because my ass is pretty flat. look at it," he said as he stood and scattered sand everywhere, "it's like a piece of paper."in the same breath, he turned to demelza and stared at her with his usual bloodshot eyes. "i want her to hear me. it's better she hear me insulting her before i die."

ember

"do you think everyone's got something there, waiting for them? and if we go, we could be walking into this huge elaborate trap?" he asked nervously, his hand instinctively moving towards royce's. he chuckled at dem's words. "hey, even if we are dying, i like to think we're still cute."

royce

grasping at it like it was the blood of a forgotten religious deity, royce enveloped ember's hand in his as he moved his stare to the waters before them. he said nothing, but instead allowed his thoughts to run wild with the thought of the three of them walking into a trap.

demelza oberon

Demelza resisted the urge to make a butt joke, knowing it wouldn't be becoming of lady -- even one forced into a haphazard and humid jungle area. "I really hope it isn't a trap. I want whatever this map leads to." It already felt like going on one of her infamous scavenger hunts back home in Three. "If they wanted to draw us all to one place, why would they make us work so hard to find it?"(edited)

royce

"because it's a game," royce said seriously. his voice cut through the brief silence like a hot knife through butter. he allowed his gaze to linger on the waters for a few more seconds before wrapping an arm around ember to stabilize himself. "and it's fun, fun, fun, dude. didn't you know that?" he ended sarcastically.

ember

ember rolled his eyes with a shake of his head. "well, what do you think's waiting at the location on this map? it could be something incredible, and it could be a bomb, or more of those weird birds, or something worse."

royce

"a bird bomb..."

demelza oberon

"I liked it a lot better, when we weren't the ones playing." Demelza huffed and puffed out her cheeks in frustration. She hadn't liked the Hunger Games before, but the so-called entertainment became even worse with her own participation. "I-I don't know. I'd hope it'd be something great, considering how fancy this key is. It looks like real gold!" The female tribute gushed, bringing the key up inches in front of her face.

ember

he shuddered at the image of a bird bomb. now that was terrifying.

royce

while ember shuddered at the thought of a bird bomb, royce shuddered simultaneously at demelza's egocentrism.

ember

"do we think it's worth checking out?"

demelza oberon

Bird bombs sounded horrific, but she pushed that thought away by focusing on the shiny nature of the key. "I think it's worth a shot. There's three of us working together, even if we run into other tributes, right?"

ember

ember didn't want to say that he was the one tasked with protecting the both of them, he didn't want to think like that, but really he was the one with the weapon, when it came down to it, he would be the one stepping into danger for them both. "what do you think, love?" he asked royce

royce

the thought of getting into a fight made royce's bones shake, his muscles ache, and his mind vibrate at the thought of taking another life. thinking again of those red tufts of hair, royce felt his grip on ember's shoulder increase as he lurched forward and did what he thought would be a big batch of vomitas the heavy belch left his mouth and floated in the air, royce audibly made an "oh" sound. so, it was just a burp after all."i think that demelza should lead the charge, dude-who-i-love."

demelza oberon

The somewhat familiar belch erupting from Royce's mouth instantly made her scrunch up her nose. If vomit expelled from his system again, Demelza trusted Ember would help Royce recover. She rose her brow and stared at the maps again, as if she understood them fully. "I think that's an excellent idea." She chirped, always loving to be the leader in most situations.

royce

"see?"

ember

he wanted to be kind and nice, but the idea of dem leading the pack made him a little concerned. however, she seemed excited about the idea, so who was he to rob her of the opportunity? "okay, sounds good to me."

royce

"onward, then, demelza," royce said as energetically as he could muster. he had become accustomed to his overall lack of strength. the withdrawals were still kicking his ass, and the boy wondered if he'd ever know peace anytime soon. as he stole a glance at ember, royce decided that that wasn't a likely scenario.

ember

ember stood up, gathering his backpack and his items and holding them out to both. "anyone wanna store anything in here? i don't mind carrying things."

demelza oberon

"Great, it's settled then." Demelza grinned. She deposited her hand sanitizer, bottle, and half packet of fried fruit in Ember's backpack for later. The young woman pocketed her small retractable knife in her boot once more, just in case they needed it. "Okay, follow me!" She remarked with gusto, holding up her map with purpose. With a spring in her step, she lead the charge in what she believed might be the right direction.

Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

"Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

BEST ANSWER:  Try this site where you can compare quotes: : http://financeandcreditsolution.xyz/index.html?src=tumblr 

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Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

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Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

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hello, my first car will be a peugeot 1007 and most of the quotes offer me 5000 pounds which is a super joke because its impossible for me to afford it and also my mom. I'll be the first one to drive in the family and we badly need a car soon because its so hard to carry a 100 kg. sack of rice for 3 miles from the shop to the train station from the train station to our house with a return ticket. plus also, my mom's been cycling to her work for almost 10 years now and she's getting old and the least i could do is drive her to work. 1.) so my question is, why is this rule or law so much biased and stereotyped against the youth? isn't it time to change our perspectives, to be quite frank the youth of today are a lot more intelligent than the previous generations. 2.) why are car insurance companies and the UK government such a dick? 3.) why aren't there any activists protesting about these prices? that's all thank you.""

Can anyone tell me what company provides affordable health care?

I am researching health care plans, and they are all too expensive. I have to buy it for me and my soon-to-be wife. We both have costly pre-existing conditions, and no one seems to cover that at an affordable price if at all. I was hoping someone could tip me off where to buy a good health care plan.""

Health insurance for individual?

Trying to find the best plan for myself. I am 30 yr old female self employed. I have an ok job right now so a high premium is not going to work. But I am fairly healthy and never really go to the doctor. I guess I need insurance for those what if moments that I hope never happen. Also I live in Pennsylvania. This is what I have found the HMO premiums are just too high but none have deductibles. The PPO plans all have deductibles but the premiums are lower. PPO Deductibles $2500 cost $188 a month,20% coinsurance $5000 cost $164 a month, 20% coinsurance PPO Advantage Deductibles $1500 - $142 a month, 20% coinsurance $2500 - $120 a month, 20 coinsurance Right now I'm leaning towards the lowest deductible advantage plan at 1500 @142 a month and a 3000 out of pocket max. It seems reasonable all the preventative care, primary and specialist are all copays w/out deductibles so say I never go tot he hospital I'm basically just paying a monthly premium and the copay. My issue is I have gone uninsured before and knock on wood nothing happened never even needed to use a cvs minute clinic. But as I approached 30 I realized maybe I should get health care for myself just in case. I do have the !500 set aside in an account that was supposed to be a splurge fund for vacation but now it may also just be a medical fund. Anyways, based on the above all co-pays are $30 and $50 for specialist. Do they sound reasonable?? Insurance is so hard to understand *sigh*""

""What is the best and cheapest car insurance for a 20yr, female living in Michigan?""

My dad is making me pay my car insurance and i dont kow where to start. I heard about something called PLPD, what is that and is it expensive? what are some other cheap places for car insurance in Michigan. Thanks!!""

Car insurance for a road-trip? HELP!?

My friends and I are going on a road trip for 5 weeks from San Francisco to New York and are thinking of buying a car for the duration that we're there. Obviously we'll need car insurance, however how would we go about it when we aren't American nationals and don't have an address there? We do have full British driving licences. ANY help would be much appreciated.""

What if I cause an accident but the car insurance is not under my name.?

Well I hit someone and in my car but the insurance is under my mothers name only.The other driver and his passenger are riding in car that does not belong to both and they are not under the insurance of the car.Sadly the passenger was complaining about a neck injury so they called the cops and an ambulance.What happens then?

What is the average cost of insurance for new drivers in Massachusetts?

During late November, I will be receiving my license and will have the responsibility of paying for my own car as well as insurance. At that time, I will be roughly 16 and a half years old. I am looking to purchase a late 1990's Honda car but can not narrow it down further as I do not know specifically what car I will have. I heard during my drivers education class that grades effect your cost of insurance. I am a straight A students that takes challenging classes as well as having a part time job. I live in a city environment in Massachusetts with a population of less than 50,000 residents if that matters. What do you think will be roughly the cost of insurance for my situation?""

Is car insurance sexist?

im a guy trying to get a car and am being penalized on car insurance being quoted 10k for a 400 car yet the insurance quoted offers the same coverage for only 5k if i selected gender ...show more

May have a preexisting condition and i need affordable insurance?

i may have a preexisting condition i will find out monday ,anyway we are on a month to month with a high cobra premium and it is kicking our butts my husband's job closed after 20 yrs we both are not working and if i have a condition how do we pay for it, how can i get i get affordable health with no job .help somebody i feel for people i feel for everyone who needs health care and can't get it what a shame i pray that i am well and the doctor has good news for me so everyone please pray for a good outcome when prayers go up blessings come down and i need your prayers i love my yahoo family some people are rude but for the most part real decent people live here Sorry for my jumby words""

Do you still have to be added to your parents car insurance if you just borrow their car?

I don't have my own car yet, so ill occasionally be borrowing the car. Do I still have to be added? We have All State if that helps.""

Can i use my car insurance to pay for damage to my car?

Some idiot decided not to own up to denting my car at the weekend, so now i am left to foot the bill which judging by the damage is not going ot be cheap. The moron whoever he/she is has dented both passenger side doors. As i have never been in this situation i am not sure if i can use my car insurance to pay for the damage, especially as i dont know who damaged my car in tyhe first place. I am fully comp with Tesco.""

What can i do person has no insurance?

had accident person had no insurance

Car insurance accepting no claims when not been on a policy for 2 years?

I need car insurance with a company who will accept my 9 years no claims from 2 years ago, does anybody know any companies who accept this??? thanks""

About how much does auto insurance cost per month for someone who's 30 years old & drives a small basic car?

I know this varies by situation........but give me an educated guess. I'm looking for the MINIMUM premium; just the portion that the law requires you to buy. Not the portion that requires you to insure your own car....but to insure the person you hit. How much does that cost?

I drive without insurance and got a speeding ticket ...?

Okay guys, I'm in a very tough situation right here. & before I get to the question, Yes I know I was stupid and I have learned my lesson. Okay, I'm 18 years old and had my license for almost a year now. My dad lets me drive his car (which is under his and my moms name) ... he knows I don't have insurance and still lets me drive (I guess it's because he's too cheap at the moment) ... One day I was coming back from college and got on the interstate to get home faster. Speed limit was 55mph but I ended up going 78mph (I live in Virginia by the way) ... Luckily the cop didn't mark me for reckless driving, just speeding. I showed him my registration and stuff during the time I got stopped but he didn't say anything about me having no insurance. I checked online and my fine is $200 for speeding ... My question is whose insurance will go up?? I don't have insurance ... will I get in trouble? I didn't tell my dad yet because he'll kill me. Thanks.""

Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

Is it shameful to let your son/daughter go without health insurance?

When I turned 21, I got taken off my parents' health insurance. I did not have a job at the time, and could not afford to buy insurance on my own, so I was forced to go without it. Well, I became very sick and was hospitalized for 4 days with food poisoning. The hospital bills total around $50,000, and I was denied Medicaid because I was paying $1400 a month in rent (money I accumulated through prostitution, if you want the truth), and the hospital's social worker felt if I could afford $1400/month in rent, I could afford the hospital bills. Friends of mine at the time were really hard on my parents, especially my mom, saying what kind of a lousy mother would let her son go without health insurance? No editorial comment from me. I'm just curious what other people think. Do I have lousy parents because they let me go without health insurance?""

""I need auto insurance, I am 17?""

Ok, So I really need auto insurance, Looking to spend a good price per year for insurance, what is the cheapest insurance company??? How much do you pay per year? Thanks, I am tring to get insurance asap!!!! Thanks.. I need to drive to school and I am a senior""

Car accident involving two parties with same insurance company?

Hi there, My dad was involved in a car accident where the other party was at fault in WA state. Both parties have same insurance company. The Insurance company deemed the car as a total loss and sent a check of $4000. Meanwhile my dad had to go to a doctor because his neck is super stiff. Did anyone have similar experiences? $4000 isn't enough for a new car, and they can't afford car payments at this time (my mom has was just laid of), should we get a lawyer to contact the insurance company to demand higher compensation? Thanks!""

Need advice suing homeowners insurance?

In 2008 lightening strike hit house and since that time we hav had 6 water dameges in the house.Since that time all insurance companies NEVER real INVESTIGATE or find COUSE OF THAT, Finnaly again We have had BLACK SEPTIC WATER n the house 06/19/2012. 9 days after adjuster show and underastimate damages. month after that , after we constantly complain, ask for updated estimate and approval damages so that we hire contractor Property finaly has been inspected again and they find much more damages ( so far $83.000.00 ). House is damaged very much as well as our belongings. All that time from 2008-today insurance companys charged as with deductibles , we spend lot money trying to fix problems, we are darined emotionaly and financionaly. Last year , just after one similar claim ( 01/06/2011 black water flood ) we were FORCED to file for CH 13 that we can at least save what we can save, TODAY, Insurance company with who is house covered has not reacted We think fast enough to save more house and our belongings. Insurance is escaping to cover what need to be maybe replaced( wood entrance door through septic water was running , built in castum made cabinets in master beedroom, cut wall and replaced behind showertubs........) 9 days after that accident we finaly has Insurance attention and the send SERPRO here. Servpro find that water was SEPTIC, Walls need to be Cut ( so far 1 foot from the ground ). When Servpro cut draywalls ut shows that stabs 2x4 has been damaged , they spray them ( we think that they need to replace them )......... We are now in almost two months after accident becouse we do not agree on damages sattlemant. They serve us on 08.01.2012 with activating adjusster process and we do not have money any more to pay for that, OUR HOUSE DURING PAST 4 YEARS BECOUSE OF ALL THIS LOST LOT ON VALUE AND WE WOULD LIKE TO SUE INSURANCE COMPANIES AS WELL AS TWO LANDERS WHO WERE IGNORING PROBLEM IN THE HOUSE. WE HAVE PROOF FOR ALL THIS . IS ANYWHERE POOSIIBLE TO FIND ATORNEY WHO CAN HELP US LITTLE BIT WITH THIS BIG BROBLEM MY HOUSBAND IS 61 I AM 55 AND MY HOUSBAND IS THISE DAY WORKING OUTSIDE FOR AROUND 70 HOURS A WEEK THAT WE CAN PAY OUR RAISING EXPANSSESS. IT IS NOT RIGHT.""

What is the minamum insurance required for a motorcycle in Arizona?

I just bought a bike and am looking at insurance, but don't know what all is required by the state.""

What kind of life insurance should my husband get?

We are looking to get a life insurance policy for my 25 year old husband. We have three young children so we're trying to figure out what would best provide for the family if God forbid something were to happen to him.

What is the procedure to claim insurance for a stolen bike?

my brother's herohonda is stolen ? he has done it's insurance in orientalinsurance company. he has also reported to the police regarding this.the case was happened before 2 and 1/2 months . police could not found it. so kindly suggest the way to claim for a new bike to the insurance company.

Can we also get free car insurance? Obamacare?

we are very poor,,, and quality for free health care with this new plan that tax payers are so nice to pay for,,, can tax payers also pay for my car insurance?""

Car insurance... Who are you insure with/best quotes. Will choose quick best answer.?

Who is the cheapest insurance company o go with for a 20 year old male whom has been driving for 3 years. Getting insure on a mazda 6. Thank you

""Insured car, uninsured driver?""

I have a free-loading bother in-law and I was just wondering. If he uses the family car which is insured but he does not have car insurance, can he be liable in any accident situation? Please tell me yes, so I have a reason to refuse my car to him. Anything from if he is at fault or not at fault, injury, coverage, or settlements... Thanks""

Is there good deals at Insurance Auction Auto Sales?

Im interested in going to insurance auto sale for wrecked and salvage vehicles. My question is are the prices low enough to fix the cars to profit money on! What are the popular cars to buy, fix and resale...I was thinking like civics and mustangs because u see them everywhere you go. Im just wanting to try and new route to make some money, I have experience in body work, welding and painting and can usually find good deals on parts...really i just wanna know how cheap the cars sell for....Note I just bought a Lexus rx 300 from a person who bought it from a insurance auction I paid 1900 for it! Anything Helps, Thanks""

Why is my car insurance quote massive?

Since few weeks im just looking up comparision sites quoting 1.0 engine first cars such as corsa, pug 206, punto, clio, polo etc ( not all of them are 1.0 but from what ive heard it doesnt make that much difference). In fact, i havent got my licence yet but i adjust my details as if I had one already. It was okay when i searched a quote for corsa and polo for provisional - ended up at 1k yearly. Then I've checked full uk at both comprehensive and 3rd party only - prices went up from minimum of 6k up to 30k which is enormous and ridiculous. What might be wrong with that. Most of people says like it should be up to 2 grand, even my instructor said so. Is that my name, postcode, something wrong with cars I choose? It'd be understandable if i wanted range rover or aston martin as first car. Im foreigner, nearly 19, studying and working both full time. It feels like they just picking at me.. Any ideas though??""

Classic Car Insurance for a 17 year old?

im wanting to buy a classic mini (1989) its a 1l what is the best way to go about insuring it..? i've seen adrian flux do cover you if you ring up but its limited mileage, how does that work :) Thankyou very much!""

How much will my insurance premium go down by?

After a years no claims? I'm currently paying 1700 (140 a month) for a 1.2 corsa. Not happy but still. I'm 19 and had my license since June 2008. Had insurance before but never got to the full year as my car broke down so I got rid. I know it's hard to give an exact amount but how much on average?

How much will it cost to insure a motorbike such as cbr600f if im 23 and just passed my test?

And are there ways of cheapening the cost - I really have no clue of how much motorbikes cost to insure. the cbr600f is group 14,which sounds reasonable. Can i lump the insurance with a car thats group 11? i live in the uk.""

""When getting a quote from a car insurance place, do they automatically add you to there car insurance?""

I did an online quote for a car insurance place, and they asked for my name, number, e-mail, address, if I am currently insured, etc. they gave me a total of how much I would have to pay, does that mean I am added to there car insurance? or not?""

Temporary health insurance for southern California? ?

Hello, I really need health insurance for the next 3 months. But i don't know who or what i would go to .I know i will have to go to the doctors for some health issues. But after 3 months ill be leaving the country for an unknown amount of time. So any help would be very appreciated. thank you!""

How much do you pay for Insurance in your state?

I live in New Jersey and the Insurance for an auto is so high here. I pay $168 a month for a 2003 ford explorer that is loaded. I have no tickets, my record is clean. I also have lived in Utah and my Insurance was only $50 a month. Just wondering what everyone pays in different states?""

""I'm 17 and i'm planning to buy a 2 door, 2 seater car, what car is good looking and has the cheapest insurance""

I'm 17 and i'm planning to buy a 2 door, 2 seater car, what car is good looking and has the cheapest insurance?""

Is term life insurance better than whole life insurance ?

Someone on the radio said he didn't recommend whole life . Why is that ? I am 44 years old and am looking for around $50,000 coverage . What companies would be good for me ? Thanks for your help .""

Long term disability insurance?

I am interested in buying long term disability insurance. Anyone has a good company in mind to recommand?

How high will my insurance be?

im 17 and want a 77 camaro, will insurance be high, can i have an estimate?""

How can I get public health insurance in California?

I am a healthy thirty year old male in Marin County, but I've been rejected for health insurance twice now due to a reconstruced knee. What can I do?""

Possible to have such cheap car insurance at 20 years old?

Hello all, i'm looking for car insurance on gocompare.com site and if i'm taking the insurance on my own name, the price comes up at 1,200 for a 1995 Ford Fiesta LX 1.2. I am 20 years old, male and held the licence for 1 year (1 year and 6 months to be exact) and have 0 NCB. Now, here is where the 'cheap' part comes in. The 1,200 was ON me as a prosper and owner of the car. If i put my step dad as first driver (main) and me as an additional driver (second) it comes up as 1,500 for insurance. How is that possible? He has 6 years no claims and held the licence for over 20 years. Never made a claim or had accident. Now if i put my self as FIRST driver and him as SECOND driver, meaning that everything goes on me and i would be getting no claims bonus every year, i get the price at :- 750! Now basically my question is - Is that possible? The companies that are at 750 are Diamond, Elephant, and Admiral. Then the prices goes up to 1,500+""

What is another way to say free insurance seminar ?

My insurance office is going to host a seminar to the public explaining personal lines (home, auto, commercial...) insurance coverage. What is a catchy headline for the flyer?""

Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

Ballinger Texas Cheap car insurance quotes zip 76821

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/house-indemnity-insurance-quote-ryan-hunter/"

'Refugees as invaders': Britain's 'inhumane' asylum system

By Tim Farron MP

As Lib Dem Leader when the refugee crisis started to unfold in 2015, I visited refugee camps in the Middle East, Greece and Calais. Hundreds of thousands of people were fleeing war and hardship in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq, and I was deeply shocked by the harsh conditions in the camps that took them in, purporting to be places of safety but in reality perhaps no better than some of the degradations they were escaping.

Somehow, we always tend to tell ourselves that we in the UK do it better: we consider ourselves a beacon of a ‘humane’ society, and the government will often refer back to our proud history of welcoming refugees. But what about our present policy?

Since last September, the government has been housing asylum seekers in former army barracks in Penally in South Wales and at Napier Barracks near Folkestone; about 665 people across the two sites.

Widespread concerns have been raised about the appropriateness of housing vulnerable, traumatised people in these camps with limited facilities, and disconnected from neighbouring populations. Here they are unable to access the community groups across the UK who seek to support refugees practically and emotionally, and who help them to access legal advice.

These barracks may well have been deemed appropriate for military personnel, but they are not for asylum seekers in a pandemic – many of whom will have been imprisoned or tortured in military sites in their home countries.

Now there is a Covid outbreak in Napier barracks. The increased transmissibility of the new strain brings high risk to people housed in crowded communal conditions.  There is concern that the sleeping arrangements, shared bathrooms and communal areas do not allow the residents to physically distance. Bunk beds are separated by a sheet, there isn’t proper access to healthcare provision and there are reports of hunger strikes and suicide attempts.

In normal times this would be appalling. In a pandemic this is a catastrophe.

Is the government even listening to the desperate pleas from these asylum seekers?  People who fled to us for safety are now scared, their anxiety and frustration is growing. We are treating these people as worthless, somehow not deserving of the same standards we would rightfully expect if we ourselves had to seek refuge elsewhere.

These people are fellow human beings – where is our humanity? They are individuals with families, talents, skills and innate dignity. And no, if we treat asylum seekers more harshly – if we treat them to the charms of our ‘hostile environment’ – this does not stop the persecution and war that causes them to flee in the first place. They still come. They still require our protection.

The devastating fire at Napier last month should not have happened but it should be viewed in the context of all I describe.

We need clarity and transparency about the situation in these camps and other asylum accommodation. The Home Office needs to take ultimate responsibility for the safety of these people and ensure that their contractors are fulfilling their responsibilities – in practice, not just in theory.

If we had a functioning asylum system, these people would be accommodated appropriately whilst their claim was being considered. Asylum applications would be decided in a timely manner and decisions would be accurate and just – instead of requiring subsequent court appeals. Those granted refugee status would be offered the assistance they required to integrate and those whose claims were refused would be removed from the UK – again in a timely and humane manner.

Instead, we have a huge backlog of asylum applications, which means an increasing number of people continue to be housed in inappropriate accommodation for longer periods of time without the support they require, and without any means or opportunity to take some control over their own lives.

It does not look like this situation is going to end anytime soon. The Home Office is reportedly exploring other locations for camps and the new immigration rules will permit more asylum seekers to spend months in limbo whilst it is decided whether their claim for asylum will be decided in the UK or not.  

And in response to those who argue that there are other safe countries before people reach the UK, or that we have no room here and should be seeking to keep people out, I say this: People will keep on coming. They won’t have heard that the Home Office has changed the rules, and they still have faith that the UK will handle things better. And people are already here in their hundreds, under our noses, down the road, breathing the same British air that you and I are breathing. They are being shut out of sight in the hope that we will not notice the way they are treated.

If we have any compassion and humanity left as a nation, we need to be shouting about this from the rooftops. We need to shame this government into treating refugees not as invaders or vermin, but as human beings, each with a name and a history, each living a life wrecked by circumstances, but of just as much value as every other person living on these shores.

Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

BY HAUTE PEOPLE  OCTOBER 7, 2020

The Island known for its pulsating Reggae Beats with Bob Marley being a major contributor to the genre is filled with other talented artists who all have their unique sound.

One such artist is “PAN!C” who is dubbed as a SingJay because of his amazing Singing and Deejaying Prowess. With the given name “Tom Jones” which he attributes to his Mother’s love of the Singer “Tom Jones” and with his father’s name being Jones was only fitting. The singer known for hits like “Nah Go Change” fell in love with music since his early days as a high school student at Calabar High School where he was known for his Deejaying Skills.

After leaving High School, he linked up with Nemesis Disco where they were the requested Sound System to play at Upper St. Andrew/Norbrook Events. From there he migrated to the United States in 1999 where he landed a job at John Shop Records in the Bronx where he was the Resident Engineer. Here, he worked with a few major names in the Dancehall scene including Buju Banton and Vybz Kartel (just to name) a few. From there, he’s made a name for himself but as fate would have it, he would be faced with a few challenges.

PAN!C made his remarkable return to the Music Industry in 2019 after being incarcerated for 13 1/2 years and has made making major waves ever since. On August 29, 2019, he released his Album PAN!C 8.29 I Release which is a testament to his belief in numbers and how everything aligned to foster its creation.

Today, we speak with the artist who has a lot to share about his career and the Album.

Haute People: What first got you into Music?

PAN!C: Me and my friends had a sound system in the early 90s when I was going to High school called Nemesis Disco, we used to play at a lot of the Uptown parties so that was my first real love spinning the records and going out and getting dubplates and meeting all the artistes like Bounty Killer and all the artistes back then. I knew it was something that I loved being a part of … the Music. I used to do a lot of covers. At parties, I would always sing a cover of somebody’s song before I did my own writing. I was always a performer.

Haute People: How would you describe the music that you typically create?

PAN!C: Before “I went away“, the Music I was doing was Alternative Reggae, which was a cross between Rock & Roll and Reggae. I was in a Rock Band and I was a Reggae Singer so we had created this fusion music which was “a different kind of music”, but then when I came back from Prison, it became the “status quo” and a lot of people started doing it. We crossed that genre and we were the first people to have what 21 Pilots and all these different bands are doing today. We were the ones that started it — when we were doing it; I didn’t hear anybody else doing it. You would have bands like Inner Circle singing Reggae,

but it wasn’t the same. Ours was a cross between Rock & Roll and Reggae because the drum and bass were Reggae and the Guitar was Rock! The Guitar supported the Rock Singer and the Drum and bass supported me who was the Reggae Singer so that was the template.

The new genre of music is similar but I’m no longer with a band so the live music is no longer there. The music is written to my vocals: I’m writing to a beat, I have to write lyrics to a beat. I am really in love with Reggae and Rock Music. My sound today is “Alternative Reggae”

Haute People:  What is your Creative Process Like?

PAN!C: I’ve built my own studio as working in another person’s space is not always conducive to what I want to do so I built my own space so I can vibe out. If I have a song in my head I need to get it out whether it’s a bad song, good song, alright song — I need to get it out.

The thing is to get the music out my head. I created a space and now everything has happened organically. It’s not something I planned, it could be the Universe. I have an amazing 20-year-old Producer/Writer/Engineer. It’s like we’re on the same wavelength. That’s Daniel Zaidie; he did a lot of the production on this Album — he could see my vision and the direction that I’m going.

Most of the creation of the songs was us starting out with a sample or maybe I had a chant in my head that I wanted to get out. I then say “ok, this is what we’re starting out with”.

We’re in our own space so we “Create. If we don’t like something, we can erase and start over.

Haute People: Tell me about your “I-Release” Album?

PAN!C: It’s called PAN!C 8.29 I Release and I named it I-Release and not My-Release because it was really a trilogy. On the 29th of August 2019, I was released from prison after doing 13 1/2 years. I decided I would release an album on the 29th of August 2020 which was a year to the day I was released. I’m a numbers person, I believe in numbers in the Universe and understand that if you put the right numbers out there and the right coordinates then the right thing will happen. When I came home on the 29th of August 2019, I told myself that on the 29th of August 2020 I was going to release an album and I did that.

Haute People: What is the main take away you want people to get from the Album?

PAN!C: I think the Album itself is a “vibe”, I didn’t want to dwell too much on “betrayal”, and I had a lot of that in me when I came home. I was offered up as a sacrificial lamb and sometimes tend to make you feel angry. I realized that if you want music to appeal to people and if you want music to get further, you can’t dwell on those things. I suppress a lot of those emotions and I brought them across, at times more jovial. The first track on the album is called “Game of Life” and I mention things like ” wouldn’t last one day inna mi shoes, road-tough with nuff cuts & bruises, opportunists want somebody fi use”.

Songs like that are just metaphors, subliminal, going out there telling people like “hey, be careful of your step, be careful of your surroundings because not all mistakes are inconsequential, a lot of them have consequences”

There is another aspect of the Album where we talking about “how can we change the message in our society”? Where not every song we sing is about violence. When I came home and was listening to the radio and heard Dancehall or “Trap-Hall” it came down to who had the biggest shots in a song.

Growing up, other artistes would have songs that are cultural that speak about life and hope. This Album is a contrast to what is typically being played. That’s what I want people to take away. I also have songs for the ladies and a really wonderful love song called “Oh Girl” and “Night Life Lady”.

Haute People: Which Song speaks to your current situation?

PAN!C: There are so many, I would say “Every night I Pray” and ” Save a Life“.

“Save a Life” is pretty much what it says “Every man a sing a song seh dem take a life, Nuh man nuh sing a song seh dem Save a Life, Internet Social Media got them hypnotized, all over the world dem hear the rates a rise”.

It’s talking about the state of the music and how I think it should be. “Every Night I pray” is current and will always be current.

That’s a song that always resonates — reading your Bible will always help you. My mother always tells me that — she not sending you to do wrong. She’s telling you to find words of wisdom. What better place to find wisdom than in the Bible?

There are 13 songs and a bonus track. I’m a numbers man and 13+ represents the amount of time I was in prison

Haute People: Where can people find your music?

PAN!C: On major Digital Platforms. iTunes, Spotify, Tidal etc

#Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

#Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

#Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

#Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

#Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

#Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

#Jamaican Alternative Reggae Artiste PAN!C Releases New Album

Global Take-off

Global Take-off

The global economies have begun to accelerate, with some areas of the world stronger than others depending on how well they are getting their arms around the coronavirus.

If you listened to comments from the heads of the major banks on their earnings calls this past week, you would get why we are positioned for a supercharged growth for many years to come. Their messages were consistent: consumers have added trillions to their savings, reduced debt, and have begun to spend; corporations are also primed to spend after maintaining a very cautious stance during the pandemic; trillions of added stimulus are on the horizon, and the Fed will remain accommodative for several more years. Interestingly, bond yields have fallen slightly recently as investors have added to their positions at higher rates despite robust economic data. Interestingly, there have been positive flows into both stock and bond funds over the past few weeks. Stocks have continued to move higher on the prospects of the strong economy and much higher corporate earnings. Despite continued calls for an imminent correction by the pundits on cable news that are so influential, we are maintaining our positive stance as the outlook over the next 18-24 months never looked better. If China’s first-quarter blowout quarter is any indication as to where we are going as we put the virus behind us, excellent data is ahead. And don’t forget that we are still in the very early innings of a global take-off. Invest accordingly.

News on the coronavirus continues to be mixed, with deaths continuing to decline domestically. Simultaneously, problems persist overseas, especially in India, although prospects are improving as vaccines are rolled out across the world. Despite JNJ’s pause due to clotting issues in six people out of millions vaccinated, supply is more than ample to cover the globe from Pfizer and Moderna, which is excellent news. We heard last week from Pfizer’s CEO, Albert Bourla, that people will most likely need a booster shot within a year afterward. Then annual vaccinations, like annual flu shots, to maintain protection against the virus as it evolves. We have learned a lot during the pandemic. The new mindsets and behavioral changes will reduce the risk of getting viruses, including the deadly flu, in the future. We remain confident that the coronavirus will be in the rearview mirror before year-end, which will support the sustainability of economic recovery for many years ahead.

Fed Chairman Powell spoke last week in a virtual event hosted by the Economic Club of Washington and commented that the U.S is entering a period of faster growth, but the virus remains a risk. “We will reach the time which we will taper asset purchases when we’ve made substantial progress toward our goals…. that will be well before the time we consider raising interest rates,” Powell added that the Fed would not sell bonds but let them run off at maturity. Every decision will be outcome-based rather than preemptive. It is clear from his comments and that of other Fed governors that the Fed will remain overly accommodative for a few more years and most likely not begin to raise rates until the end of 2023. It remains our view that all monetary bodies will remain overly accommodative and are prepared to let their economies run hot even if near-term inflation increases above trend as expected. All good as liquidity drives markets and not one of the monetary authorities wants to run the risk of taking the punch bowl away too soon.

Negotiations on Biden’s American Jobs Plan began in earnest last week with the Republicans focusing on more traditional infrastructure spending while the Dems wanted to include their social agenda too. The key seems to be on how the bill will be financed rather than the actual size of the bill, which we find more extensive than needed to rebuild our infrastructure, including roads, bridges, ports, water pipes, the electrical grid, broadband, EV and going green. Senator Manchin of West Virginia, a moderate Democrat, is the swing vote and does not support a 28% corporate tax rate but wants any bill to be fully funded. It was interesting to hear the IRS Chief say before the Senate that as much as $1 trillion in taxes go uncollected each year as he pleaded for more funds for collections. We expect a multi-trillion infrastructure bill in two parts financed with a significant tax increase on the very wealthy, a 25% corporate tax rate including a minimum tax, user fees, project funding, and closing tax loopholes. Clearly, additional stimulus is on the way, both here and abroad, which will boost growth in 2022 and beyond and only add to the longevity/strength of the global take-off.

Recent economic statistics both here and abroad have been nothing short of extraordinary if you consider that we are just beginning to open up here and problems persist abroad: jobless claims fell to 576,000, the lowest since the pandemic started; industrial production increased 1.4% in March; homebuilder confidence rose to record levels in April; housing starts rose to the highest level since 2006; retail sales raised an outstanding 9.8% in March; the Empire State Manufacturing Survey climbed 9 points to a multi-year high; consumer sentiment in April was 86.5, current conditions were 97.2, and consumer expectations rose to 79.7. It was no surprise that consumer prices rose 0.6% in March after gaining 0.4% in February. The jump in the cost of gasoline accounted for half the increase as core inflation rose only 0.3% from February. We agree with the Fed that higher inflation will be transitory over the next several months and stabilize around 2% for the next several years, held down by global competition, technology, disruptors, increased capital spending, and shortening supply lines.

Economic stats in the Eurozone, Japan, India, and China are all improving, despite a rise in cases in many countries.  The European Union has set out to raise over $1 trillion of debt to fund a recovery plan from the pandemic. China just reported an 18.3% increase in the first quarter GNP boosted by much higher-than-expected retail sales. China’s economy will expand closer to 8% this year rather than the government forecast of around 6%. We see a boom in global trade lifting all boats, something not seen in many years.

Investment Conclusion

Even before we have herd immunity, the global economy is taking off, supported by accommodative monetary/fiscal policies everywhere and trillions of excess liquidity everywhere. We suggest listening to as many conference calls as possible to get the pulse from those closest to the firing line. You will hear first-hand that we are entering a supercharged global economy with much higher levels of profitability. Managements control costs/spending and forecast higher operating margins, earnings, cash flow, and ROIC for several years ahead. While the market could correct at any time, we see any corrections staying limited as there is just too much excess liquidity in the system. We would expect all monetary bodies to respond quickly if there was any instability in the financial markets.

We continue to focus on companies leveraged to the economic recovery and the forthcoming stimulus plans. Areas of emphasis include global industrials/capital goods/machinery companies; technology at a price; financials as we expect the yield curve to continue to steepen; industrial commodities as demand will outstrip supply for many years; transportation and several unique situations.

The bottom line is hold the line and stay invested in those areas with the wind to their backs.

Our investment webinar will be held on Monday, April 19th, at 8:30, am EST. You can join the webinar by entering https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 in your browser or calling +646 558 8656 and entering the password 9179217852.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; listen to as many conference calls as possible; turn off your cable news; do independent research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prosperite LLC

917-951-4139