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#context that may or may not be important but last year 2022 on march I got food poisoning
appallinnballin · 8 months
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my beautiful son who has every disease
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nicosraf · 4 months
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Sorry if this gets rambly, but I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate and admire you for turning down a traditional publishing offer to continue to write the way you want. There's a certain level of tender rawness in your works that I know would be completely stripped away by a publishing house. From the topics you write about to the way you portray queerness, it would all be soulless and devoid of any beauty if you signed it all away. I don't think I would love your work as much as I do if you didn't self-publish. From the topics you write about to the way you portray queerness, it would all be soulless and devoid of any beauty if you signed it all away. My previous experiences with reading self-published books has always been 50/50, and most of the time, I felt like they would've been better if they were polished and cleaned by a traditional publisher. In reading Angels Before Man, I've come to realize how important it is to read books outside of the "approved publisher" bubble. It feels so liberating to read something so unapologetically queer and dark and emotional. In a world where queer works feel like they're getting more and more santitized for the comfort of cishet corporate overlords, it's comforting to know that we're able to tell our stories on our own terms.
Hello!!! Thank you for saying this. I'm sorry if I also get rambly but I have a lot, a lot, of thoughts on self-publishing and the industry after I've taken some big steps away from it.
I need to make the small correction that I didn't turn down a deal itself. I was in limbo waiting for the deal and had already gotten a rejection or two on ABM getting picked up. I'm not sure how much I'm allowed to talk about but I'll try to be clear
The series of events goes: I posted ABM online in November 2022, my agent reached out to me in January, ABM immediately gets sent to a "very interested" publisher in February, then I revised the book before I sent it to other "interested/excited" publishers around March. I lasted until early August, had a meltdown, then begged my agent to tell the publishers to let go of my book so I could work on the sequel.
I'm giving context because "stripped away by a publishing house" really struck a cord with me.
Here's the thing: the publishing industry is in a downward spiral. The author dream is gone. If you sell a book, your advance is more likely to be, say, 50k instead of 100k and that 50k is going to split into 4 payments over 2 years. Publishers don't market books anymore; they just make you open up a TikTok account and tell you to dance. Editors are overworked and picking up books that either are or feel already developmentally edited and (some) are asking for blurbs from big name authors (?!) before they look at your manuscript. They want books they can line edit quickly and send to market — but it's not their fault. HarperCollins editors were on strike for an absurdly long time and have gained... well, basically nothing. Agents and editors are leaving the industry. Publishing houses are "poaching" successful indie books and stroking indie author egos to take half their royalties.
I haven't even gotten to the racism and white liberalism problem. Look at Xiran Jay Zhao having their work being held hostage by their publisher for being anti-genocide. I worry about how queerness is represented in tradbooks but maybe more deeply worry about the race problem. There were calls for diversity 10 years and they've led absolutely nowhere. "Diversity" focused imprints keep getting shut down and leaving their authors in limbo.
But about editing again — so I'm sure you've heard of this book Babel by RF Kuang. It's popular but gets critiqued for hand-holding a white audience too much. Here's the thing though — I made a similar comment to my buddy and he told me whether that's the fault of Kuang or the fault of the editor. And that made me think — how many books are critiqued for what authors may have been forced to do? Yellowface by Kuang, written after Babel, goes into a manuscript getting heavily changed to appeal to white readers. Editors say "But I'm confused" and "But it doesn't make sense to me" because your editor is themselves the inescapable, white audience. And usually the cishet audience too — the straight person sighing that your fags are too problematic in these scary political times.
So why am I saying all this?? Look, I've never thought ABM was perfect. I think it's got some mediocre lines, some things I attempted that I don't think I pulled off. I, also, got into the habit of looking at self-published books (my own included) and thinking, "Oh this needed a professional hand-holding it." Tradpub was exciting to me because I could have someone hold my hand and work on the prose with me. I wanted to make the prose better.
But so I step into tradpub and it all goes wrong. They don't know what to do with me. They suggest a revision to cut it down to a novella. I get angry and then get angrier when I'm treated like I'm being spoiled; it's not about my "vision" here. Imagine if I announced to ABM readers that I cut ABM to 80 pages for a little bit of money?? Others started implying Part 2 basically needed to go; it's too confusing, too fucked up. Part 1 was perfect. Rafael, have u considered it being more of a romantasy? Have you considered a happy ending. Have you considered Michael and Lucifer having romantic virgin sex and have you considered cutting that other part with God entirety. Have you considered whether you're just trying to shock people and maybe you need to calm down
Well, I responded to all this with "What about the readers?? I can't make any big changes. They wouldn't like that." But I saw that they didn't want my readers.
There's a publisher right now who has Angels Before Man by rafael nicolás slapped on their "type of books we want" brochure they sent to (I believe) agents. They never contacted me though. I started to see that maybe no publisher ever wanted ABM. They wanted something like ABM, the idea of ABM and the idea of rafael, the mysterious queer mexican guy. you see, the publishing dream is not dead! you too can be like rafael. you can be a nobody who gets their book picked up by Penguin Random House and Fixed to Be Good and make a hundred thousand dollars and youll get to sit at the cool kids table.
Anyway, I love to read self-published, 0 rating books. They're usually weird, full of typos sometimes, but I never care. I don't read to judge something on a merit of goodness anyway (what does that mean) but just to experience something. I love reading porn, but I'm not usually sexually tantalized but it; I just love how insane it is. And seeing someone put their whole heart in something full of typos and pacing issues and plot holes is a thousand times more fulfilling to me than reading a polished husk of 3-act structure, perfect clean characters, strong prose that was worked on by 19 people and doesn't hold the dreams/desires/flaws of anyone.
I'm really happy to self-publish. I like not having a censor and pouring my heart into something. And work! Hard work is incredibly fulfilling to me; I care more about the work I put into A&M than the product it'll end up being. But I also keep thinking of situations like Babel and I think that if my work sucks, at least it's because of me and my skill, or lack thereof. It gives me a little bit of dignity.
thank you again for the ask. i appreciate it very much.
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Autograph With Jared Padalecki 2/4/23
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Hi friends! So I thought I’d share with everyone what my autograph session with Jared was like this year. As some of you know, this year was my second Supernatural convention. My first one didn’t quite go as planned and I didn’t have as good of a story as I do this year. So for context, my first convention was in 2019 after I graduated from college, then I was supposed to go again in July 2020 for my birthday weekend but we all know what happened there…STUPID COVID. The convention was postponed to March 2021 but once again, COVID canceled it so instead of waiting for the next postponed date and I didn't know what 2022 would hold, I asked for my money back. Since then, I was diagnosed with anxiety in May of 2020 and as a token for me to continue my fight, I wanted a Supernatural related tattoo. I decided to go with Always Keep Fighting because it reminds me to never give up anytime I feel low and since Jared was a giant part of Supernatural (obviously), I can say I have a Supernatural tattoo.
Fast forward to this year and I got tickets to go to the Dallas Convention! Of course, I was thrilled but I was also anxious because I wanted to make sure I showed Jared my tattoo. Let me tell y’all a bit about meeting Jared. He is literally THE NICEST person on the face of the Earth. He has a way of making you feel totally comfortable with him, he makes you feel special and important when you talk to him and even though photos and autographs happen in a short time frame, he still manages to show just how much he cares about you. He is just as happy and excited to be meeting you as you are to be meeting him.
On the second day of the convention, my best friend and I woke up WAY too early but we got to the convention and this was the day where the majority of the photos and autographs were going to happen. To say we were excited was an understatement. After we picked out our outfits and put our makeup on, we went to the venue and found our seats. Looking at the schedule, we were figuring out when everything was going to be and where we would have to be for each event. Most everything went by very quickly and that's typical for these conventions. In the past, if you wanted to have more time with Jensen and Jared, you would have to buy either of the two most expensive admission passes for an autograph. Luckily for everyone this year, they offered an a la carte ticket (meaning you can get an autograph for cheaper) and still have the same experience. Although you would be called one of the last groups, it’s still a cheaper way to go. I’d done the second most expensive ticket before and would’ve done it again, but the seating changed and we would’ve sat further from the stage.
Jumping to the autograph sessions, I was called to stand in Jensen’s line first, then Jared’s. Of course, I was nervous but I reminded myself I had done this before and it was super fun. One thing I love about conventions is all the people you meet. Ever feel out of place for something you love? Go to a comic convention or a specialty convention and you’ll be surrounded by others who all love the same thing you do; boom, instant friends. After Jensen, it was time for me to head over to Jared’s line. This was going to be a critical time for me because I have an Always Keep Fighting tattoo and the entire reason I got an autograph was to show Jared. I mean, I kept telling my best friend to remind me to tell him because I was afraid I was going to forget!
When the big moment came and it was my turn to talk to him, it went something like this: (M for me, J for Jared)
M: Hi Jared! J: Hi doll!
I watch him as he takes my 15th-season jacket and starts signing it.
M: So I have an AKF tattoo.
This prompts Jared to stop and look up at me, showing him the colorful tattoo that is on the left side of my chest, exactly where the Winchesters have their anti-possession symbols.
J: Oh wow, that’s so cool! M: Thanks! It hurt like hell. J: I was going to say but I was afraid to ask. M: No it’s okay. It was worth it though because you’re worth it to me. I have anxiety and I will do anything I can to keep you close to me at all times.
He gives me the most caring and concerned look I’ve ever seen him do as he hears me talk about my own struggles with mental health.
J: Well you’re worth it, too. *insert adorable smile with dimples here* M: Thank you.
And with that, I walked away and no more than five minutes went by and I’m in tears. The thing about mental health is that you can’t control it. It’s a struggle, a never-ending battle within yourself; you are your worst enemy. For me, it's something I most likely have had for years, and up until my diagnosis, did any of it make sense. But I got answers and I got help, so sharing that with Jared, even just a little bit, made the struggle seem worth it. Of course, I was embarrassed but I had friends who came by and hugged me, offered me tissues and even a snack. All of which just made it a little easier. When I see my tattoo now, I smile and remember this interaction with Jared. It was so quick but it meant everything to me. I will always have this to look back on and feel joy and pride, knowing I went through the pain and was able to show the man who inspired it, the very thing I got. I am so thankful to have Jared in my life, even just having met him twice, he has become such an important part of me. He has helped remind me that yes, I am important, I am loved, and I am not alone. He is a stranger but he makes you feel like he has known you for years. Not sure how he does it but he cares and it means the world. @sam-winchester-admiration-league @fandom-princess-forevermore @forever-trapped-in-my-dreams @thewinchesterdaily @thinkinghardhardlythinking
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dustward · 2 years
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I watched Houseki no Kuni / Land of the Lustrous back in March 2018. It left a long lasting impression and may very well have introduced me to my favorite protagonist of all time. As fond as I was of it, I stupidly waited in hopes of a second season, but as of mid 2022 there’s no hint of that happening, so I caved and *finally* started reading the manga. Got most of the volumes beforehand (1-10), and ordered volume 11 shortly after finishing 10. Finished 11, then caught up with the remaining chapters (96 as of first posting this). Knowing it was coming out of hiatus further motivated this decision, and I am beyond glad I finally put the time aside to do this, as painful as some moments wound up being to read through.
Figured this would be as good a time as any to share my thoughts on everything that happened after where the anime left off, especially in the case that it forever remains a single season. Major spoilers under the cut, etc.
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Love Phos. Love Phos so much. The reason I first got interested in the series was seeing an episode 1/12 comparison shot and I just had to know the how and why they changed so much. Was always a sucker for characters that go through drastic, believable changes over the course of a story and was glad to see Phos’ journey was very much that, genuine.
Ghost’s presence was way too brief for the impact they indirectly had on the course of events, though that could be said about several characters, like Pad and Antarct. The second I saw Laips’ head I knew. How could I not? It was a bit devastating to see that spoiler, both through the fact I was spoiled but also knowing Phos had yet to go through their most drastic changes. The bright-side to having seen said spoiler was that it lacked any semblance of context. Was that still Phos, was it Lapis, or was it someone else entirely? There was no way of telling through expressions alone, and perhaps that’s why that iteration of them was not so carefully hidden. That wasn’t the only spoiler I got hit with, of course, but it was the most important one.
I had become aware of Cairngorm through fanart back then as well, though I had no idea who they were nor how they suddenly came to be involved. Someone like that would’ve surely been spotted in the anime, had they always been there. Some well hidden aspects to later parts of the story. Even after rewatching the anime several times I failed to notice the single glimpse of Ghost, similarly. So there was never any chance of knowing about either of them. Well played. I feel like maybe I had glimpsed something about them related to the moon as well, but I thankfully chalked that up to my own imagination. The benefit of taking years to get to reading further in. One last spoiler involved Bort’s hair. No context kept that a burning question for the longest time. Otherwise, I ventured on unspoiled.
It’s quite something how there can be so many characters, all similar in relevance, and yet take turns in shining and making themselves known. It’s a shame some don’t retain that relevance throughout the story. Zircon, in particular, feels like they had that one moment of self doubt and reflection before they were relegated to the background. I’m a bit disappointed Red Beryl wasn’t given a chance to grow and flourish, but that’s just a personal gripe. It’s easy enough to understand and accept they were always meant to be a background character. Expected more from Peridot and Sphene after their introduction, but it seems it wasn’t meant to be. Their one moment of focus was good, however, like Zircon’s. Not much to say about Hemimorphite, but like Red Beryl I have a soft spot for the rarely focused on Watermelon Tourmaline (also I love that name so, so much). Obsidian is cute, but needed at least one moment as well I feel. Wish we had more opportunity to know the newer Morganite, as it’s easy to imagine how much they flourished in parallel to the newer Goshenite. The former of each, may they rest well on the moon. The Neptunite and Benitoite dynamic.. I feel and hope more of that is shown. There’s no way they leave things off on that bitter note.
It’s hard to comment on Ghost Quartz given their short outing, similar to Antarct. I wound up really liking Antarct, while I just kinda like Ghost. The plot moves at a breakneck pace, so I suppose any hope I’d have for them to use their ghost-like sneaking to combative effectiveness was never gonna be realized. Their presence, however brief, does set the stage for several volumes’ worth of framework. Like I mentioned a couple paragraphs prior, it’s amazing how much any one character in this series can drive the overarching plot, even when their involvement is so brief in both the story and the in-universe timeline which spans thousands of years. Probably my biggest reason for hoping for a second season at this point is to give further chance to appreciate their character and their effect on both Phos and Cairngorm following their departure.
Lapis Lazuli, where to begin? Another brief appearance, and a surprising one at that. Similar to Pad, that brief time we spent with them left me wanting more, but the plot waits for nobody. Euclase almost sounded relieved when Lapis got taken to the moon, and it makes me wonder what everyone else thought of them: the Lustrous, Kongou, and the Lunarians. To date, likely the only character to reach any level of a deceased status, and it is perhaps an earned one, depending on how far they let their curious nature take them. Even Ghost, their partner, didn’t seem that upset about the unique predicament Laips got stuck in, being unable to reunite all their inclusions for a revival.
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rebeccasabot · 1 year
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Do Homeowners in Bismarck Have Negative Home Equity?
Home equity has been a hot topic in real estate news lately. And if you’ve been following along, you may have heard there’s a growing number of homeowners with negative equity. But don’t let those headlines scare you.
In truth, the headlines don’t give you all the information you really need to understand what’s happening in our local Bismarck market and at what scale. Let’s break down one of the big equity stories you may be seeing in the news, and what’s actually taking place. That way, you’ll have the context you need to understand the big picture.
National Headlines Focus on Short-Term Equity Numbers and Fail To Convey the Long-Term View
One piece of news circulating focuses on the percentage of homes purchased in 2022 that are currently underwater. The term underwater refers to a scenario where the homeowner owes more on the loan than the house is worth. This was a huge issue when the housing market crashed in 2008, but it much less significant today.
Media coverage right now is based loosely on a report from Black Knight, Inc. The actual report from that source says this:
“Of all homes purchased with a mortgage in 2022, 8% are now at least marginally underwater and nearly 40% have less than 10% equity stakes in their home, . . .”
Let’s unpack that for a moment and provide the bigger picture. The data-bound report from Black Knight is talking specifically about homes purchased in 2022, but media headlines don’t always mention that timeframe or provide the surrounding context about how unusual of a year 2022 was for the housing market. In 2022, home price appreciation soared, and it reached its max around March-April. Since then, the rate of appreciation has been slowing down.
Homeowners who bought their house last year right at the peak or those who paid more than market value in the months that followed are more likely to fall into the category of being marginally underwater. The qualifier marginally is another key piece of the puzzle the media isn’t necessarily including in their coverage.
So, what does that mean for those who purchased a home in 2022? It’s important to remember, owning a home is a long-term investment, not a short-term play. When headlines focus on the short-term view, they’re not necessarily providing the full context.
Typically speaking, the longer you stay in your home, the more equity you gain as you pay down your loan and as home prices appreciate. With recent market conditions, you may not have gained significant equity right away if you owned the home for just a few months. But it’s also true that many homeowners who recently bought their house are unlikely to be looking to sell quite yet.
Bottom Line
As with everything, knowing the context is important. If you have questions about real estate headlines or about how much equity you have in your home, let’s connect. I can easily generate a personalized home equity report.
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jerseydeanne · 3 years
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When I last sat down with Prince Harry for an honest, candid, funny and frank interview, he told me he would use his “privileged position” for “good stuff” for “as long as I can, or until I become boring, or until [Prince] George ends up becoming more interesting.”
Harry, then 31 and one of the most popular royals, seemed aware of his sell-by date. “There’s nothing worse than going through a period in your life where you’re making a massive difference and then suddenly ... you drop off. You want to make a difference but no one’s listening to you.”
Recently it has been almost impossible not to hear Harry, although the jury is out on how much people are still listening. So when he announced last week that at the age of 36 he is writing his “intimate and heartfelt” memoirs, “not as the prince I was born but as the man I have become”, it felt as if Harry thinks his greatest hits are already behind him. After settling in America, why the rush so soon after the soul-baring interview with Oprah Winfrey and a glut of other interventions?
A friend of Harry’s says that while he was still a working royal, he harboured a Prince Andrew complex of slipping down the pecking order and becoming irrelevant: “Harry has always been in such a rush to make an ‘impact’, because he thinks he has a limited shelf-life before the public want to hear more from George and his siblings and he worries that after that, he’ll turn into his uncle.”
Harry now wants to tell us about his “dedication to service” and how he’s “worn many hats over the years”, because “my hope is that in telling my story — the highs and lows, the mistakes, the lessons learnt — I can help show that no matter where we come from, we have more in common than we think.”
The privacy-obsessed prince will let us into his head for a rumoured multimillion-pound advance, with “proceeds” from sales of the book published by Penguin Random House in late 2022, the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee year, going to charity. Harry is said to have been working on a manuscript for more than a year with the American ghostwriter JR Moehringer, who worked on Andre Agassi’s memoir. Whatever is — or isn’t — in the book it is certain to outsell Meghan’s The Bench, which has shifted 6,195 copies here. Yesterday, a spokeswoman for Harry denied reports of a four-book deal, with a second book after the Queen’s death, as “factually inaccurate”, confirming “there is only one memoir planned” and “no project co-ordinated around” the monarch’s demise.
We are likely to hear Harry’s take on the very public breakdown of his parents’ marriage, the impact on his childhood and more on the devastating effects of the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, when he was 12. He has said he failed to deal with it for years, leading to a period of “total chaos” and a near “total breakdown” in his twenties. Of walking behind his mother’s coffin, Harry has said: “I don’t think any child should be asked to do that, under any circumstances.” Will the book reveal who asked him and what choice, if any, he was given?
How Harry chooses to relay the “party prince” years, when he was living it up in London nightclubs and smoking cannabis at his father’s Highgrove home, leading Charles to arrange a visit to a rehab centre, will be fascinating. Will the period be analysed retrospectively as the reeling aftermath of his mother’s tragic death? Or will there be candour about a young, privileged prince having a blast and doing what many young men in his position would have done?
“I never thought he was out of control then,” says a source who knows Harry well. “In his new Californian guise, I think he’ll tell it honestly, framed in the context of his ‘journey’ towards ‘healing’. I think there will be a lot of the old broken me versus the new fixed me who dealt with the pain, and a lot about Meghan as the woman who liberated me to deal with it all.”
A seasoned royal watcher says they are “looking forward to the Vegas chapter”, one of Harry’s most notorious escapades when he was photographed naked playing strip billiards in a Las Vegas hotel suite in 2012 shortly before being deployed to Afghanistan. “Too much army, not enough prince,” Harry later said, admitting: “I let my family down.”
Having become so outspoken on race and “unconscious bias” after meeting Meghan, the first mixed-race woman to marry into the modern royal family, what will Harry tell us he learnt after calling an Asian army colleague “our little P*** friend” while at Sandhurst military academy in 2006? The incident was widely condemned, a year after he was forced to apologise for wearing a Nazi uniform to a fancy dress party. “He’ll be smart enough to know that to gloss over those incidents would undermine the book,” says a royal source who knows him.
Harry’s account of family life will be intriguing — how the triumphant trio of William, Kate and Harry briefly became the “Fab Four” with Meghan, their fairytale wedding with the no-show by Thomas Markle, the father-in-law he has never met, William and Harry’s rift, the painful split from the royal family and their new life in America, right up to the controversy last month surrounding the naming of their new daughter, Lilibet. The Sussexes called in lawyers to dispute a BBC report that the Queen was “not asked” about the intimate nickname. “False and defamatory” said team Sussex. The BBC stood by the story. Buckingham Palace did not dispute it.
What will Harry’s version of life inside and outside the royal goldfish bowl look like? He has pledged total honesty, and is “excited for people to read a first-hand account of my life that’s accurate and wholly truthful”. But as the Queen’s statement following the bombshell Oprah interview in March pointed out, “some recollections may vary”.
In that interview, and in the mental health documentary series Harry made with Winfrey, he claimed talking about mental health with his family was off-limits. Royal life “wasn’t an environment where I was encouraged to talk about it”. His comments left some scratching their heads. After all, Harry, William and Kate championed ending the stigma around mental health for years in their hugely successful Heads Together campaign.
On the Armchair Expert podcast in May, Harry also credited “a conversation I had with my now-wife” for his decision to have therapy. Yet in another podcast in 2017, Harry said he sought professional help “three years ago” encouraged by William, who told him: “You really need to deal with this.” The inconsistencies in some of Harry’s recent recollections have been well documented, leading some to describe him as a “revisionist historian”. Harry’s rumoured ghostwriter has spoken about the importance of honesty.
There is little hope in royal circles that will happen. The Sussexes’ recent outbursts have driven once-loyal aides to despair. “I fear they may sail into the sunset now, convinced they did the right thing by speaking ‘their truth’,” says one. “Now I hope everyone shuts the f*** up.”
Charles has been portrayed as an emotionally and financially stingy parent. A source close to him says: “He has genuinely been so upset by it all. He just doesn’t recognise any of the examples or narrative.” Friends of William and Harry say William, who was forced to publicly defend his family against accusations of racism after the interview with Winfrey, “despairs” of his brother but the shock factor is wearing off.
Harry has done brilliant things in his time. Moving the dial on mental health, serving his country at war and launching the Invictus Games are just a few of his achievements. Nobody should begrudge him wanting to bang the drum there, and if he wants to bare his soul on how he has coped with undeniable adversity and tragedy in his life, fair enough. But if his book becomes the main course of a score-settling feast then he will lose many more hearts and his greatest fear will be realised — “no one is listening”.
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meichenxi · 3 years
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For langblr asks: 7, 10, 11, 18, and 49
Thanks!! This may get long, so I apologise in advance! I’m learning German and Esperanto alongside Chinese, but since my German is fairly advanced and I don’t really learn actively any more (I just read, listen to talks etc - mainly because I have no reason to actively speak German sadly) and my Esperanto is basic I’ll just talk about Chinese. 
7 -  What are some things that you learned about language learning that really improved your studying? 
- Hands down learning about the role of attention in language learning. In an ideal situation, you are exposed to the target feature, then have your attention drawn to it/figure it out yourself, and are then exposed to it in natural language again. I think we all know the wild experience when you learn a word and then magically the universe provides it - and suddenly you know that word forever. I now like to think of word ‘learning’ as incremental rather than binary: recognising a word in a familiar context, an unfamiliar context, and then finally using the word are all different levels of ‘knowing’ that word. What this means in practice is that I worry less about not being able to use all the vocabulary actively that I recognise passively, because I know once I do use it actively that item will be easier to access. So there are two things here: first of all, that I don’t worry if I’m watching or reading something and don’t actively extract vocab from it, because I know that hearing it will make it easier to remember later on; and secondly, that if I ‘pay attention’ to a word but don’t ‘learn’ it because I haven’t seen it in context, that state of not knowing is temporary. The moment I see it in context - sometimes months later, when I had completely ‘forgotten’ that word - I know what it is. So I don’t stress as much about not being able to remember words from flashcards or whatever, because I know that seeing/hearing them in context is what cements that word, not just repetition. 
10 - What are some thing that you love about the language you’re learning?
Oh my goodness. So many things. I love characters; they used to absolutely drive me crazy, but the ability to read after so long being unable to read now just feels wonderfully exciting every single time. I love learning about different components and how they combine together. I love too that the idea of ‘the word’ is tied so intimately to characters: there are psycholinguistic experiments showing that Chinese native speakers learning English show interference effects when two words are presented in English that have the same component (not even whole character!) and it slows down decision making. I love the way that tone and intonation interact and I love seeing how far I’ve come from not understanding how I could express emotion at all. I love what Chinese shows about the power of the second language learner: it’s incredibly homophonous because of limited syllables even with tones, and it’s radical pro-drop, the more formal you are the shorter/more concise sentences tend to be, and when you’re in a different dialect/Chinese language even those useful initials or finals can change and still you know what is being said. It’s incredible. I love the sound of <q> and <j> and <x> and especially the final <ing>. 
The thing I love most about Chinese is its conciseness and elegance. I love learning about different systems of politeness and register and Literary Chinese is just so incredibly concise: if learning modern standard Mandarin is interesting, Literary Chinese is just...it blows my mind. It’s very unique: and I don’t mean this in the sense of ‘oh look how Exotic and Different’, I mean this typologically: it’s arguably the most analytical language in the world and is regularly used in linguistics papers to exemplify phenomena found in such highly analytical languages. I also think the encoding of order-based pragmatics into actual linguistic implicature is absolutely so cool. 
I love the difference registers it has, and I love that it feels such a good language to moan about the bus being late in and also, you know, that kind of poetry which just takes your breath away. I love how the same sentence can be expressed in different registers and how grammar patterns from literary Chinese can be used in modern Chinese. I love how compounding and derivational morphology work in Chinese (it’s absolutely nuts?? and so versatile??) and I love how names carry so much meaning. I love it for its ambiguity and conciseness and completely *shrug* lack of need to express tense or person because you know, if you know you know.
And from a synesthete’s point of view, Chinese is beautiful too: it’s a crisp clear dawn-like language, cool and misty. 
Finally, I love it for what it has taught me. It’s the first tonal language I’ve ever learnt, and the learning curve has been huge. Parts of it have been massively frustrating (we’ll get to that). I remember the week before I went to China for the first time hurriedly trying to learn some phrases, and I just couldn’t get them to stick in my head. I think I practiced ‘good morning’ about 10,000 times and I still couldn't say it right, or remember it. Languages were sort of my thing - I had taken my German GCSE early, done French and Spanish 0-GCSE in one year each, done three language A-levels (Spanish in five months because I dropped out of another A-level, self-taught German) as well as an extracurricular Latin GCSE. I was cocky!! And so not being able to do it was crushing at first and also just, what?? So learning Chinese has taught me patience, and it’s a useful bench-mark now if I ever feel like I can’t do anything. It’s taught me that you just need patience and determination, and that you'll get there in the end. Genuinely, that’s the most useful lesson I’ve learnt in my short life. 
11 - What are some things that you don’t like / find frustrating about the language you’re learning?
Originally, I found both the pronunciation and characters immensely frustrating. I think I’m over those hurdles, and now what annoys me most is the grammar - and if anyone says there is no grammar in Chinese I may just murder you. Chinese grammar is hard because, as I’ve talked about before, a lot of rests on sentence patterns and a lot of it seems to shift in ways that, say, Spanish grammar doesn’t, depending on context, formality and so on. But the reason Chinese grammar is difficult is again because the categories it manipulates are ones that don’t map perfectly onto what we think is being manipulated. So we build representations in our mind and try to learn structures without realising that a lot of it is patterns, not something set in stone. This includes phenomena like topic-marking, fronting, emphasis and so on. The most ‘grammar’-like of Chinese grammar actually is based in large parts in implicatures and the pragmatic-semantic interface, which is very hard to teach. This is why I think that input is especially crucial in Chinese. 
Also, embedded wh-questions are hard. 
As I’m learning more, though, this is all gradually becoming less frustrating. I don’t want to jinx anything and I still have a lot to learn, but I’m feeling cautiously optimistic that the worst is behind me. Things are making a lot more sense now anyway!!!
18 - Have you had any conversations with natives of your target language/s? How did that go?
Haha, of course. I lived in China for six months and then visited again for two months. I also work as an English teacher online and have a lot of Chinese students. I also sometimes chat with other Chinese students in the German classes I was taking. I’m really excited though to go back to China though now that I’m a little bit better and see how I can improve from there!!! I feel like last time I wasn’t really at a good enough level to improve quickly; I think this time would be really hard, but I can communicate well enough that I hope people wouldn’t switch back to English. 
One of the problems I have always had though has been that my pronunciation sounded better than my knowledge of the language - because of immersion. So people always assumed I understood way more than I actually did which was always terrible because I never knew wtf was going on. 
One really really nice conversation I had recently: in my English class, a young girl’s mother asked if I could explain the present simple vs present continuous to her daughter...in Chinese. And regardless of what nonsense I said, the little girl understood! Ahhhh that warm glowy feeling of human connection and accomplishment. 
49 - What are your language goals for 2021?
Since I’m learning quite intensively at the moment, these goals will be appropriately intense. Gulp. 
1) Pass HSK5 (March). This is my biggest goal, and the first time I’ve ever worked towards a language exam so I’m a little nervous. I think it’s do-able (especially with the help of the course that I’m taking, HSK Online), but still large enough to be scary. 
2) Be able to write all words up to HSK5 by hand (July). I have a little more time for this one - normally I don’t think handwriting is particularly important, but since I’m going to be studying in a Chinese university next year with the dreaded 听写 I need to be able to do it. They sort you into groups depending on your exam results, and if I can’t handwrite more than 我 then I’m not going to get very far. How do I plan on achieving this? I’m planning maybe on buying a subscription to Skritter again and working through (I really like them), but most importantly, just handwriting freely in a notebook and building up the habit. 
3) Be able to read at the same speed as the subtitles. I know, I know, most people can. But I can’t lmao so let me practice. 
4) Be in a good place to take HSK6 in early 2022. I don’t actually know if I’m going to take the HSK6 exam: maybe not. HSK5 is only important for me because I need it for a scholarship. But as random as some of the words are, it’s a very good benchmark and a useful list. Considering I’ll have from March until the end of the year, and from the end of June onwards I’ll be in a Mandarin-speaking environment (and be in a Chinese university from August/September) I think it’ll set me up well. It’s way too much to do by the end of the year though, so this goal is just to do as much as I can before 2022. 
5) Read the first Harry Potter in Chinese. Guys, I’m not looking to understand the descriptions of the moat or Hagrid’s beard. But I want to be able to read the dialogue with ease, and be able to dip in and out of the book with ease. 
6) Complete my literary Chinese textbook (mid-year). 
7) Be able to watch shows like Streetdance of China without subs. I can watch some shows already without subs, but I often feel that’s more to do with galaxy-brain thinking, ‘reading the room’ and being lazy than actually understanding all the words. Despite shows like the Untamed having more ‘difficult’ vocab, I find them a lot easier to understand than variety shows etc because the audio is extremely clear and not too fast. Watching Nirvana in Fire without subs will have to be a goal for 2022 lmao; no way will that happen by this time next year. 
8) Learn the top 1000 traditional characters and practice reading traditional more. This is not as hard as it sounds: past about the top 500, many of them differ in very predictable ways. 
And here are three long-term goals I have no time limits on:
1) Read MDZS and TGCF in Chinese. Ahhh. The dream. 
2) Read lots of wuxia!!!!!!! All the wuxia!!!!!!!! Be able to read actual books, imagine.
3) Use Chinese for academic research on Chinese dialects and Tibetan languages. This is kind of...my career path...so! 
Thanks for the ask!! 
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houseofvans · 5 years
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SKETCHY BEHAVIORS | INTERVIEW WITH PEARL C. HSIUNG
LA based multimedia artist Pearl C. Hsiung explores the relationships between humans and nature through her various paintings, sculptures, videos and installations.  In a collaboration with the Borrego Boys & Girls Club as well as members of the public, Pearl recently created a site-specific sculpture using wood, plexiglass and non-recyclable plastic waste. She’s also unveiling a large-scale tile mosaic commission in 2022 at the new 2nd/Hope St Metro station in downtown, LA. We’re excited to find out more about Pearl’s artwork, collaborations, and what she’s got coming up for the rest of the year.
Take the Leap! 
Photographs courtesy of the artist. 
Could you introduce yourself to everybody? Hi I’m Pearl C Hsiung, I live and work in Los Angeles.  ‘Hsiung’ is pronounced ‘shung’ and means the animal bear in Chinese.  I have a pet mini-Rex named Rambo who lives free- range in my apartment.
How would you describe the art you create? How would you describe your particular technique? I’d say that my practice uses the landscape as a starting point for thinking through our connection to it and towards the idea that we are inseparable from the matter around us.  If all matter in the universe combusted out of the same material then our current, subjective reality, where we behave as if we’re defined apart from everything around us, is an illusion.  
In past painting, video and installation works this is performed through metamorphosing, flowing and eruptive forms bursting out of their geological, biological, technological, and cultural skins.  In works like Full Gorge (2017) and Original Face (2018), I was thinking about the interconnection of all that is natural, human, more-than-human and artificial through an experience of immersive presence in material space.  
For me, these free-standing paintings point to a certain moment of presence, not unlike the moment I experience sometimes after reading certain zen kõans or Daoist phrases; it is an instant moment, a moment of clarity where I understand it all.  But it is fleeting, it is a momentary experience that precedes, challenges or completely eludes language.  Maybe this is not unlike a moment experienced when in nature, during sex or laughter (during both?), plugged into VR or while coding.  
What are your favorite things to paint? What should folks take away from your works? I enjoy painting on canvas, paper, MDF, wood…  Actually I hope people bring to my works.  I encourage the exchange that I make the work and viewers bring their perceptions and interpretations.
What’s a typical day in the studio for you like? And what are you currently working on in the studio? My studio schedule is fluid depending on the season.  It also depends on how much I’m teaching, I may only get one full day and a couple half days a week for the studio, other times I’m 5-6 days a week.  Time spent in the studio varies a lot and can include research, reading, sketching, painting, writing, building, cleaning, organizing, accounting, correspondence, grant proposals, teaching applications, pacing, prepping for big work/big actions, paint experiments, materials tests, staring, repotting plants…
I’m starting on new work for a show at Visitor Welcome Center in Koreatown in November 2019.
When you’re working on and developing a new painting or piece, how does it begin - take us from sketchbook, to color choices, to finished painting?   New work is always a continuation of themes and ideas from previous works and research. The form changes as the focus shifts on those ideas or approaches.  The decisions on everything from composition, structure, color palette and presentation are informed by this new focus as well as the new context of making that work.  Personal, experiential, studio environment, cultural influences, topical events all seep into that.  The sketchbook is full of garbage, I let it sit there to compost and sometimes it sprouts a new bud…
What tools will someone always find you using at your studio? What are your preferred materials? Tools have changed through the years.  More recently you’ll see squeegees and plastic paint guides (that I use like a squeegee) rather than brushes for the paintings.  Consistently, I use white paper and tape as painting tools.  The computer, the internet and books are always studio necessities for research and admin tools.  I use paints and inks that comes tubes, tubs, tins, buckets, bottles, spray cans, jars, sets on canvas, cold-pressed paper, MDF, cardboard.  I’ve been experimenting with painting on non-recyclable plastic I’ve tried to make into it’s own substrate but it’s not yet working out.
How do you unplug yourself so to speak? What do you do to center or re-focus yourself if you find yourself stressed out about deadlines, art shows, and the sort? When the stress piles up it helps if I do yoga first thing in the morning in my living room, but the best way to deal with the stress is to work through it.  When I feel overwhelmed by anxiety relating to projects, teaching, or deadlines, it usually helps me to become more prepared, using research, preparation and experimentation to deal with the parts that can be addressed.  For short term refocusing, I step outside and stare at things:  the sky, the plants outside of my studio, the birds on the telephone lines, the clouds.  Or I’ll take a walk around the block, change my daily routine like driving a different route, take the bus, walk through the grocery or thrift store before getting to work.  
For longer term re-centering, if I can, I leave town or just go stare at the ocean.  Staring is like open-eyed meditation for me, I try to empty out my thoughts, blank out and spend unscheduled time.  Sleep well and spending time with family and friends are also priceless rechargers.
You recently worked with AIR Talks: Candlewood Arts Festival collaborated with folks you met at the Borrego Boys & Girls Club? Tells us about the festival, the project and about the various workshops you helped conduct? Why was this event so important to you? This was the inaugural Candlewood Arts Festival, a temporary public art event in the town of Borrego Springs located in the Anza Borrego State Park.  Tanya Aguiniga, Devon Tsuno, Kor Newkirk, Mario Ybarra Jr and I created different site- and community-specific sculptures and happenings during the last weekend of March 2019.  Most of our works were located out in Galleta Meadows, an open, outdoor lot amidst the expansive desert landscape.  
For my sculpture Holocene Screen, I collaborated with youth from the Borrego Boys & Girls Club as well as members of the public during a workshop at the Borrego Art Institute to create a sculpture using wood, plexiglass and non-recyclable plastic waste that considered the simultaneity of nature, human and artificial as a landscape within a landscape.  
As part of the Holocene Screen workshop process, the students had to brainstorm words that fell into three categories: nature, human and artificial.  Then they were asked to write a short story, poem or single sentence using one word from each category which they painted onto a plexiglass window in the sculpture.  It was interesting to learn how easy it was for them to identify elements from nature and human, yet struggle with artificial.  
We had discussions about what artificial is and what items from their everyday lives fall under that definition.  Their next step was to visualize and compose a singular picture or narrative that threaded all three.  I think that was a good example of how easily we can grasp, and even romanticize and/or idealize the relationship between nature and human, and the difficulty or resistance to imagining the artificial in our aesthetic compositions or picture of reality.  
My intention, for both workshop participants and myself, was to place these three elements in one view, one image in order to de-emphasize the space between natural and unnatural.  What does that look like and where does that lead us to.
What do you enjoy about collaborations? What would be your dream collaboration? The best aspect of collaboration is giving up control and the sharing of ideas and labor.  Working in the studio is so solitary that it can be a great relief to open up to working with someone else or others.
Earlier this year you also showed works and visited with the Paramo Galeria in Guadalajara! Tell us a bit about the overall experience and exhibition. I had paintings included in New Suns, a group exhibition curated by Kris Kuramitsu at Paramó, it was the first time I’ve been to Guadalajara.  It was thrilling to be showing with such a strong group of artists, Sherin Guirguis, Kenyatta A.C. Hinkle, Nasim Hantehzadeh and Gabriella Sánchez among them.  I went for the opening back in December and also spoke on a panel with Sherin, Kenyatta and Kris at the Guadalajara International Book Fair, which I learned is the largest book fair of the Americas and the second largest in the world.  
Another first was speaking to an audience while being translated sentence by sentence.  We had a really furtive conversation though regarding the themes that our practices share.  
Something else that was new for me, was having an experience that someone might call…spirit related.  Ghost or undead related?  I told you about it later and you also had a ghostly experience the same weekend but in Big Bear?  
All I will say is that it was a disturbance by very young thing that was too visceral to be a dream.
You’ve worked in various mediums from murals to sculpture to painting to video / animation. Is there a medium you’ve yet to try that you want to get into? I like an answer that Gertrude Stein gave during an interview from 1935.  It regards the forms that writing takes, i.e. the novel, the autobiography etc, so I’m taking it out of context a bit, but the interviewer asks her “What has passion got to do with choosing an art form?”  She answers “Everything.  There is nothing else that determines form.”  So I think I’ve let form, or choice of medium come from the initial impulses of the work I end up making.  Maybe there is a VR piece or mural in bronze in my future….
What’s the most challenging aspect of what you do? How do you overcome these obstacles? What keeps you going? Financial sustainability.  Keeping the studio open while also preserving time to work in it.  I live off a financial collage composed of hustling - teaching, selling work, artist lectures, panel discussions, grants, commissions - but the stress of keeping it together has taken years off my life!
Share with us some artists you’re really excited about as of late.  York Chang,The Signal and The Noiseat Vincent Price Art Museum, April-July 2019. What I like about York Chang’s works in this show is that he uses information, text, images and sound to magnify the chaotic and disorienting feeling that comes with checking your phone, radio or tv for news or information. Facts and truths are just atoms floating around in a giant cosmos of distorted narratives, info, and transmissions, you cannot locate the signal or its source amidst the noise. The show’s installation makes you feel swallowed up in this, it’s enveloping yetliberating to be lost in, setting you up to enjoy the weird connections that York makes.
Carolina Caycedo’s Apariciones / Apparitions, a video exhibited at the Huntington Library last summer (you can see it on view at the Vincent Price Art Museum this summer, June 15 - December 21, 2019.)  This video is gorgeous and powerful.  Female, black, brown and queer dancers twirl, flounce, throb and glide throughout the colonial-style and asian gardens and libraries of the Huntington.  Sometimes they are totally fluid bodies in motion and at others times quite still and making spellbinding eye-contact with the viewer. You are watching a conjuring of the bodies and spirits of those whose representations and histories are missing throughout the art, books and histories archived in the Huntington’s collections.
Christina Quarles But I Woke Jus’ Tha Same at Regen Projects, April-May 2019. I suggest people see her paintings in person, they are really engaging.  They are figurative, figures coupling, moving into and through each other, embracing beyond recognition by the brain and into recognition by the flesh.  Materially they are gymnastic, virtuosic but not stuffy and make me want to paint. York Chang, The Signal and The Noise at Vincent Price Art Museum, April-July 2019.  What I like about York Chang’s works in this show is that he uses information, text, images and sound to magnify the chaotic and disorienting feeling that comes with checking your phone, radio or tv for news or information. Facts and truths are just atoms floating around in a giant cosmos of distorted narratives, info, and transmissions, you cannot locate the signal or its source amidst the noise.
Dynasty Handbag (Jibz Cameron) is a performance, video artist who lives in LA right now.  She’s the sharpest, funniest, slipperiest, grotesque-adjacent comic performer in the universe.  When you see her live, she reads the room, the crowd and herself so spontaneously that you’re always on a mood-swinging rollercoaster. She’s so distortedly vulnerable, proud and charming that you’re not only laugh-crying with and at her, but you’re mostly dying over how culture makes us schizo and insane.  She hosts a monthly queer performance night called Weirdo Night here at Zebulon.
What are your favorite Vans? SK8-His that are all solid black w/ black soles.
What do you have coming up that you can share with us? I’ve got a show opening in November 2019 at Visitor Welcome Center in Koreatown, LA and a large-scale tile mosaic commission at the new 2nd/Hope St Metro station in downtown LA, opening in 2022!!
FOLLOW PEARL | WEBSITE | INSTAGRAM 
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gystink · 3 years
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Request for Qualifications: The City of San José/ Santa Clara Valley - Capitol Light Rail Extension (USA)
Santa Clara Valley - Capitol Light Rail Extension 200 East Santa Clara Street, 12th Floor San José, CA 95113 APPLY NOW Contact Email: [email protected] Call Type: Public Art Eligibility: National State: California Entry Deadline: 7/2/21
REQUIREMENTS: Media Images - Minimum: 8, Maximum: 8 Video - Minimum: 0, Maximum: 1 Total Media - Minimum: 8, Maximum: 9
View Site Details
INVITATION TO SUBMIT QUALIFICATIONS Submission Deadline: Friday, July 2, 2021,10:59 p.m. Pacific Time (11:59 p.m. Mountain Time) Downloadable RFQ and Addendum 1 available for download here: https://www.sanjoseca.gov/your-government/departments/office-of-cultural-affairs/public-art/for-artists
I.  BACKGROUND
Eastridge to BART Regional Connector (EBRC) is the last phase of the larger Capitol Expressway Transit Improvement Project that transforms San Jose’s Capitol Expressway into a multi-modal boulevard offering Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), light rail transit, and safe connections to the regional transit system.
This 2.4-mile extension of VTA’s light rail “Orange Line” will extend from the Alum Rock Station (on Capitol Avenue) to the Eastridge Transit Center (on Capitol Expressway). The extension will be constructed on an elevated track operating in the median of Capitol Expressway and includes two new stations. At Story Road plans include an elevated station that will be accessed by a pedestrian bridge. The Eastridge Transit Center, one of the busiest hubs in VTA’s transit network, will acquire a new ground-level station. Work at this location will also include an expansion of the existing Park-and-Ride. The overall project also includes new traction power substations at Ocala Avenue and Eastridge Transit Center.
When complete, VTA riders will be able to board light rail at the Eastridge Station, and connect directly with BART at Milpitas Station, the northernmost BART station in Santa Clara County.  
II.  PUBLIC ART PROJECT OPPORTUNITIES
Public Art will be an important feature of the EBRC Project distinguishing VTA as a visible and significant part of the city landscape. Public Art will also contribute to the vibrancy of the cityscape, promote neighborhood pride by strengthening the unique character of the individual stations as landmarks, create engaging experiences for pedestrians and transit users, and reinforce intuitive wayfinding.
The primary opportunities for artwork are located at the Story Road and Eastridge Transit Center stations. These sites allow for both discrete sculpture as well as integrated plaza enhancements. While VTA is open to receiving recommendation for other opportunities within the overall budget, and without impact to project schedule, the final site selection shall be at VTA’s sole discretion.
Story Road: Commuters from the surrounding community connecting to downtown San José, or BART at the Milpitas Station will be the predominate users of Story Station. The street level pedestrian area at the Southeast and Southwest drop off zone has been initially (although not exclusively) identified as the primary public art site.
Eastridge Transit Station: Eastridge Transit Station is an end-of-the line station. It is adjacent to the busy Eastridge Mall, in proximity to Lake Cunningham Recreation Area, and will be one of the busiest stations in San José. Here the Park-and-Ride is being reconfigured, offering opportunities to distinguish the adjoining plaza.
Additional context (e.g. site overview of the transit line, renderigs of the stations, existing photos, etc.), for reference are available in the "View Floor/ Site Plan" link provided above, and attached to the downloadable RFQ as Appendix I. We are seeking 2 artists/artist teams (one for each site) with diverse skill in object making, material integration, and community outreach and engagement. A wide range of artistic approaches is acceptable for these opportunities, but ultimately the work must be appropriate for conditions of an exterior installation.  
III. ARTIST ELIGIBILITY
This opportunity is open to individual artists or artist-led teams working and living in the United States. All applicants must be at least 18 years of age and have all necessary documentation and permits to work in the United States at the time of submittal of qualifications. If submitting as a team, a professional artist must be the lead team member.
To be eligible, artists must demonstrate experience developing and implementing projects in public space with a budget of $200,000 or greater. 
Note: one of these commissions will be reserved for Bay Area region artists defined as artists living and working in one of the following counties: Alameda; Contra Costa; Marin; Napa; Santa Clara; Santa Cruz, San Francisco; Sonoma, Solano, and San Mateo.  
IV.  PROJECT BUDGET & SCOPE
There are two discrete opportunities. The total budget of each project shall not exceed $450,000, which includes all expenses related to the research, community outreach, design, fabrication, delivery and installation of artwork as follows:
Artist Fee: $70,000 for completion of the following:
Research and investigation including, but not limited to, review of background documents and data to understand the EBRC design documents, project area, and community.
Community outreach and engagement, including discussion with key stakeholders and public meetings with community members for the purpose of understanding the diverse community, their goals and values. The engagement process is intended to build community awareness, stewardship, and provide input and feedback for creative inspiration. Based on COVID-19, artist will work with VTA and SJPA to co-create a virtual process as appropriate based on health guidelines.
Preparation of concept, schematic, and design development proposals including: dimensioned plans and elevations describing the artwork design, installation plan, colors, materials, fabrication processes, costs, schedule (from fabrication through installation), and maintenance specifications. Artists will also provide renderings, models and other visual material to adequately illustrate how the artwork will appear when installed.
Presenting the design proposal to project stakeholders including, key community stakeholders, the VTA, and San José Public Art Committee for approvals.
Based on the approved Design Development Proposal, preparing construction documents and specifications (CDs”) for the artwork. Artist will be responsible to provide the services of all licensed design professionals, engineers, fabricators, installers, and other consultants, as needed, to ensure artwork’s code compliance, structural integrity, and durability.
Fabrication and Installation: Up to $350,000 for each location may be allocated for fabrication and installation as determined by the approved Design Development Proposal including, but not limited to: off site fabrication; transportation to site, and final installation; developing comprehensive operation and maintenance specifications, required staff training, and preparing final as-built documentation.
Contingency: In addition to the fabrication and installation budget a contingency of $30,000 is set aside to cover unanticipated costs that are the result of critical, unforeseen circumstances, which impact the artist’s ability to deliver the Project within budget. The VTA retains unused contingency funds and must approve of the use of them.  
V. CONTRACT
The Artist will enter into a three-party agreement between VTA and the City of San José. The Exemplar agreement is attached as Appendix II to the downloadable RFQ available online at the City of San Jose Public Art Program website "For Artists":  https://www.sanjoseca.gov/your-government/departments/office-of-cultural-affairs/public-art/for-artists
Artists are asked to review this contract prior to submitting for this project and refer any questions to SJPA staff or to your own legal counsel as necessary. If you cannot access this agreement via the Internet, please request a copy be mailed to you prior to the submittal deadline so you may review it in advance of your application. Final award shall be contingent upon selected artist/team accepting Terms and Conditions of the agreement in conformity to the terms listed in the referenced document. City reserves the right to accept an offer in full, or in part, or to reject all offers. The selected artist must comply with any local business licensing requirements including any local Business Tax requirements and will be required to obtain Automobile Insurance and General Liability Insurance coverage in conformance with requirements as directed in the three-party agreement.  
 VI. PROJECT SCHEDULE AT-A-GLANCE*
RFQ advertised                                                     Monday, April 26, 2021
RFQ Submittal Deadline                                       July 2, 2021
Artist Selection                                                      July 2021
Contracting                                                            August 2021
Research & Concept/Schematic Development     September - November 2021
Concept/Schematic Proposal Review                   December 7, 2021
Design Development                                             December 2021 – January 2022
Design Development Proposal Review                 February 1, 2021
Construction Documentation                                 February – March 2022
Fabrication, Installation, and Completion              TBD - prior to Winter 2025
* This is a typical schedule; dates may be subject to change.  
VII.  SELECTION PROCESS
There will be a two-phase selection process:
Short List: A selection panel will review artist qualifications, statement of interest, and past work examples with the goal of selecting 4 - 6 finalist artists for interviews. Qualifications, work samples and statement of interest must be submitted through CaFÉ™ per instructions below. Artists need only submit once and will be considered for both opportunities. NOTE: Specific proposals are not requested and will not be reviewed at this time.
Finalist Interviews: Interviews will be conducted virtually and will focus on prior experience of the artist/team; artists’ conceptual approach to developing artwork for specific sites; and strategies for creative virtual community engagement.
VIII.  RFQ SCHEDULE
The following is the schedule for the artist selection process:
RFQ advertised                                             Monday, April 26, 2021
Last date to submit questions/objections      Friday, May 7, 2021
RFQ Closing Date                                         Friday, July 2, 2021
Selection Panel / Short listing                       Week of July 12, 2021
Artist Interviews and Selection                      Week of August 1, 2021
Once selected and contracted, a site visit will be scheduled for commissioned artists to begin site investigations. The timing of this activity will be based on COVID-19 status, design development priorities, and other goals as determined collaboratively with artists.  
IX.  QUALIFICATION SUBMITTAL
Qualifications, work samples, and statements of interest shall be submitted through CaFÉ™ in accordance with the instructions below; there are no exceptions.
Staff will preview all submissions for completeness prior to Selection Committee review and may reject incomplete or non-responsive submissions.
While submittal through CaFÉ is free to artists, any other potential costs associated with responding to this request are to be borne by the Artist.  
X.  SELECTION CRITERIA
Aesthetic excellence of past projects; appropriateness of prior concepts as they relate to EBRC project goals and opportunity.
Experience and/or interest in creating public artworks in collaboration with stakeholder group.
Interest in innovating virtual and/or socially distant community engagement strategies.
Experience developing artworks in outdoor environments.
Experience in construction materials and methods appropriate to the scope of the project.
Demonstrated ability to manage projects on time and on budget.
Demonstrated delivery of projects with similar budgets: Artists must demonstrate experience developing and implementing projects in public space with a budget of $200,000 or greater.
Experience working with a government agency.
  XI.  APPLICATION REQUIREMENTS
APPLICATION DEADLINE:
Submissions (described below) must be received as a complete application in CaFÉ™ by no later than 10:59 p.m. (PST) 11:59 p.m. (MST) on Friday, July 2, 2021.
Note: 10:59 p.m. Pacific Time (PT) is the same as 11:59 p.m. Mountain Standard Time (MST), the time zone in which CaFÉ™, the host for online submittal is located; CaFÉ™ will automatically stop accepting submittals.)
Please make sure you have started your application with time to ask questions, particularly if you have not used CaFÉ™ previously. Late and incomplete applications will not be accepted.
APPLICATION PROCESS: All materials will be submitted online, via CaFÉ™ website (www.callforentry.org). There is no application fee to apply or to use the CaFÉ™ online application system. 
To view the application, go to www.callforentry.org, register a username and password, navigate to “Apply to Calls”, and search the list for “Santa Clara Valley – Capitol Light Rail Extension”
Assistance in using the CaFÉ™ system is available during regular business hours via e-mail at [email protected].
 XII.  REQUIRED APPLICATION MATERIALS
The application submission must include the information and materials described below all of which are required to constitute a complete application. Please review carefully as incomplete applications will not be eligible for consideration and will not be reviewed.  
Images of Past Work: Submission must include visual representations of past artwork that demonstrate your qualifications for this project. In order to be considered for this project, the applicant must submit a total of 8 digital images that represent no more than 5 previously completed projects. Proposal images from prior projects may be submitted, but should be clearly marked as proposals and cannot be more than 2 of the requested 8 images. All images are to be submitted electronically through the CaFÉ™ system. Instructions on how to format images to CaFÉ™ specifications can be found on the CaFÉ™ website under Image Prep.
Descriptions of Past Work: Submission must include a list of the submitted project images with descriptions that clearly explain both the projects and images. More specifically, each image must include the following: a) artwork title; b) date of completion; c) location; d) dimensions; e) significant materials; f) budget and g) relevant conceptual and/or contextual description. If you were the member of a team or otherwise worked with other artists on a project you are submitting for consideration, please clearly state your actual role in the creation of the work.
Statement of Interest in in this project: What specifically interests you about this project? What interests you in the site or site opportunities? Do you have specific interests as an artist that you feel align well with a project of this nature?
Stakeholder Engagement/Community Outreach: What is your public art experience collaborating with clients and communities? Given issues associated with COVID-19, how might you approach community outreach?
Résumé: Submission shall include a current résumé that outlines your professional accomplishments as an artist (maximum of 5000 characters/equivalent of 2 pages; if a team, then 3000 character maximum for each team member.)
Application for Completeness: Please confirm that your application includes all the required materials listed below:
Images (no more than 8 images representing no more than 5 projects)
Past Work - Image Description Detail
Statement of Interest
Stakeholder Engagement/Community Outreach
Résumé (5000 characters/2 page maximum)
Reviewed the three-party VTA, City of San José, Public Artist agreement as recommended
XIII.  EVALUATING APPLICATIONS
A.  Responsiveness of Applications: An application that is not current, accurate and/or completed in accordance with the requirements of this RFQ will be deemed non-responsive and will be eliminated by the City from further consideration.  Notwithstanding the foregoing, the City reserves the right to waive minor irregularities in an Application.
B.  Supplemental Information: The City reserves the right to require any or all Artists to provide supplemental information clarifying the submitted materials.
C.  Consideration of Information Outside the Application: The City has the right to conduct a further and independent investigation of the information provided in an application.  This includes contacting and speaking with references.  The evaluation panel may use any relevant information gathered by such investigation – and any other information that comes to the attention of the City – to evaluate an Artist.
 XIV.  COMMUNICATIONS REGARDING THIS RFQ FOR SUBMISSIONS
A.  Submitting a Question or Objection: Artists must submit any questions and/or objections to this RFQ to the Contact Person: Mary Rubin, Senior Project Manager: [email protected]
B.  Questions and/or objections must be submitted via email. Contacting any City representative(s) other than the Contact Person about this RFQ is prohibited and is grounds for disqualification.
C.  Content of Question or Objection:  Artist submitting an objection must describe the objection as specifically as possible and set forth the rationale for the objection, including the section number and paragraph title at issue. 
C.  Deadline for Submitting a Question and/or Objection: Artists must submit any questions or objections no later than the Deadline for Submitting Questions and/or Objections as noted in the schedule referenced in Section VIII above.
E.  City’s Issuance of Addenda, Notices and Answers to Questions: The City will post all addenda and notices regarding this RFQ. The City may provide a written response to any question(s) and/or objection(s) in the form of a single answer or by issuing an addendum. 
F.  Artists are Responsible for Checking CaFÉ™: The addenda, notices and answers to questions issued by the City become part of this RFQ.  Each Artist is responsible for checking the City of San José Public Art Program website’s “For Artist” for addenda, notices and answers to questions.  In the event an Artist obtains this RFQ through any means other than to CaFÉ™, the City will not be responsible for the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the final RFQ document. 
G.  Relying on Other Written or Oral Statements Prohibited: Artists can rely only on this RFQ and any subsequent addenda, notices and answers issued by the City. Artists cannot rely on any other written or any oral statements of the City or its officers, Directors, employees or agents regarding the Project or the RFQ.
 XV.  PROTESTS
A. If an interested party wants to dispute the award recommendation, they must submit their protest in writing to the City’s Public Art Director no later than five (5) business days after the Recommendation of Award is approved by the San José Public Art Committee, detailing the grounds, factual basis, and providing all supporting information.  Protests will not be considered for disputes of requirements or specifications, which must be addressed in accordance with the Objections Section above.  Failure to submit a timely written protest to the contact listed below will bar consideration of the protest.
B. Protests must be addressed to the following:
     Office of Cultural Affairs      Attention: Michael Ogilvie      200 E. Santa Clara Street      San José, CA  95113
C.  Grounds for which No Protest is Allowed: There is no right to protest based on the following:
Incomplete (non-responsive) applications;
Late submission of applications; or
A dispute regarding the application requirements and/or specifications that could have been addressed by submitting a question and/or objection in accordance with Section XIV.
D.  Director’s Decision: The Director or an appropriate designee of the Director will issue a written decision on any protest.  The Director, or designee, may base the decision on the written protest alone or may informally gather evidence from the Artist filing the protest or any other person having relevant information.  The Director’s decision is final.
 XVI.  GROUNDS FOR DISQUALIFICATION
A.  All Artists are expected to have read and understand the "Procurement and Contract Process Integrity and Conflict of Interest", Section 7 of the Consolidated Open Government and Ethics Provisions adopted on August 26, 2014.  A complete copy of the Resolution 77135 can be found here. Any Artist who violates the Policy will be subject to disqualification.  Generally, the grounds for disqualification include:
Contact regarding this procurement with any City official or employee or Evaluation team other than the Procurement Contact from the time of issuance of this solicitation until the end of the protest period.
Evidence of collusion, directly or indirectly, among Artists in regard to the amount, terms, or conditions of this proposal.
Influencing any City staff member or evaluation team member throughout the solicitation process, including the development of specifications.
Evidence of submitting incorrect information in the response to a solicitation or misrepresent or fail to disclose material facts during the evaluation process.
B.  In addition to violations of Process Integrity Guidelines, the following conduct may also result in disqualification:
Offering gifts or souvenirs, even of minimal value, to City officers or employees.
Existence of any lawsuit, unresolved contractual claim or dispute between Artist and the City.
Evidence of Artist’s inability to successfully complete the responsibilities and obligations of the proposal.
Artist’s default under any contract, resulting in termination of such contract.
 XVII.  MISCELLANEOUS PROVISIONS
A. City’s Right to Terminate Process: The City reserves the right to terminate this RFQ at any time.
B. Costs of Preparing Submittal:  Artist bears all costs associated with its efforts in responding to this RFQ.
C. Gifts Prohibited: Chapter 12.08 of the San José Municipal Code generally prohibits a City officer or designated employee from accepting any gift(s).  The Artist selected as a result of this RFQ will be required to comply with Chapter 12.08  accessible here.
D. By submitting a response to this RFQ, the Artist represents that:
It is familiar with the requirements of Chapter 12.08, and
It has complied with, and throughout the remainder of this application process will continue to comply with, the requirements of Chapter 12.08.
The Artist’s failure to comply with Chapter 12.08 at any time during this process is a ground for disqualification.
E. Discrimination:  It is the City’s policy that the selected Artist shall not discriminate, in any way, against any person on the basis of race, sex, color, age, religion, sexual orientation, actual or perceived gender identity, disability, ethnicity, or national origin, in connection with or related to the performance of City of San José contracts.
F. Public Nature of Submissions:  All applications and submissions and other correspondence with the City regarding this RFQ become the exclusive property of the City and become public records under the California Public Records Act (California Government Code section 6250 et seq.)  All submissions and other correspondence will be subject to the following requirements:
The City has a substantial interest in not disclosing submissions during the evaluation process. For this reason, the City will not disclose any part of the Application before it issues the Final Notice of selection. After issuance of the Final Notice of selection, all submissions will be subject to public disclosure.
There are a limited number of exceptions to the disclosure requirements under the Public Records Act, such as for trade secret information. The City is not in a position to determine what information in a submission, if any, may be subject to one of these exceptions. Accordingly, if an Artist believes that any specific portion of its submission is exempt from disclosure under the Public Records Act, the Artist must mark the portion of the submission as such and state the specific provision in the Act that provides the exemption and the factual basis for claiming the exemption. For example, if an Artist believes a submission contains trade secret information, the Artist must plainly mark the information as “Trade Secret” and refer to the appropriate section of the Public Records Act, which provides the exemption for such information and the factual basis for claiming the exemption.
If a request is made for information in a submission that an Artist has properly marked as exempt from disclosure under the Public Records Act (e.g. information that the Artist has marked as “Confidential”, “Trade Secret” or “Proprietary”), the City will provide the Artist with reasonable notice of the request and the opportunity to seek protection from disclosure by a court of competent jurisdiction. It will be the Artist’s sole responsibility to seek such protection from a court.
Any submission that contains language attempting to make all or significant portions of the submission exempt from disclosure or that fails to provide the exemption information required above will be considered a public record in its entirety. Therefore, do not mark your entire submission as “confidential,” “trade secret,” or “proprietary.”
G.  Environmentally Preferable Procurement Policy:  The City has adopted an “Environmentally Preferable Procurement” (EPP) policy. The goal is to encourage the procurement of products and services that help to minimize the environmental impact resulting from the use and disposal of these products. These products include, but are not limited to, those that contain recycled content, conserve energy or water, minimize waste or reduce the amount of toxic material used and disposed. Computers and other electronics are a growing focus of environmentally preferable purchasing activities due to their high prominence in the waste stream, their numerous hazardous chemical constituents, and their significant energy use. Moreover, when these products are improperly disposed of they can release hazardous substances that pollute the environment.
In support of this policy, the selected Artist will be required to work with the City to apply this policy where it is feasible to do so. In addition, Artists should address any environmental considerations with their proposal response.
The entire EPP policy may be found in the City’s internet site here.
H. Unfair Competitive Advantage:
The City seeks applications for this RFQ through a competitive, impartial process in which all Artists are treated fairly. An Artist that has an actual or apparent unfair competitive advantage jeopardizes the integrity of the competitive process.
A number of different situations can give rise to an actual or apparent unfair competitive advantage. Most commonly, an actual or apparent unfair competitive advantage arises because the Artist has unequal access to nonpublic information or unique insight into the scope of work. Whether an unfair competitive advantage exists depends on the specific facts of each situation.
The existence of an unfair competitive advantage is a basis for the City to disqualify an Artist’s participation in this RFQ. If the City determines that an Artist is disqualified because of the existence of an unfair competitive advantage, it will provide the Artist with a written statement of the facts leading to its conclusion that an unfair competitive advantage exists. The Artist may protest the determination in accordance with Section XII of this Application. Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in Section XII, the Artist shall submit its written protest no later than 5 business days after the date of the City’s letter of disqualification.
The Artist represents that before submitting a response to the RFQ it investigated and considered the issue of potential unfair competitive advantage, including considering any subconsultants it has worked with. By submitting a response to the RFQ, the Artist further acknowledges that performing the work resulting from this RFQ potentially could be the basis of creating an actual or apparent unfair competitive advantage for any future work. The City strongly advises Artists to consult with their legal counsel regarding these issues.
I. Disqualification of Former Employees
Chapter 12.10 of the City’s Municipal Code generally prohibits a former City officer or “designated employee”, as defined in Chapter 12.10, from providing services to the City connected with his/her former duties or official responsibilities. The Artist selected as a result of this process will be prohibited from either directly or indirectly using any former City officer or designated employee to perform services in violation of Chapter 12.10.
By submitting a response to this RFQ, the Artist represents that:
It is familiar with the requirements of Chapter 12.10, and
Its response to this RFQ does not contemplate the use of any former City officer or designated employee in violation of Chapter 12.10.
 The Artist’s failure to comply with Chapter 12.10 at any time during this application process is a ground for disqualification
All applicants must be at least 18 years of age and have all necessary documentation and permits to work in the United States at the time of submittal of qualifications.
The City of San José reserves the right in its sole discretion to reject any or all applications, proposals, applicants, or projects, and to modify or terminate the application process or the selection process for any reason and without prior notice.
Applicant agrees that any and all materials submitted pursuant to this Application for entry become the property of the City of San José and shall not be returned to Applicant. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Applicant shall retain all copyright in the work, which may be held by Applicant. 
If selected for a public art commission, Applicant will be required to enter into an Special Purchase Demand with the City of San José and will be required to comply with any relevant requirements, including but not limited to permits, licensing and/or insurance coverage requirements (if any).  
Scope of Work and Form of Terms is attached to this PDF version of the RFQ as an Exemplar Agreement.
 FOR QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS RFQ:
Please contact Mary Rubin via email at [email protected] if you have questions about the project. No calls please. Any pertinent questions submitted prior to Friday, May 7, 2021, will be addressed by an addendum and posted on City website here: https://www.sanjoseca.gov/your-government/departments/office-of-cultural-affairs/public-art/for-artists
 FOR QUESTIONS ABOUT CaFÉ™:  Please contact CaFÉ™ at [email protected].
0 notes
sussex-nature-lover · 3 years
Text
The Roadmap out of Lockdown
From England’s Government Monday 22nd February 2021
Scroll down the page for the usual daily blog.
My friend across the Ocean has heard we’re going to be easing our National Coronavirus Restrictions and so I thought I’d post what the Government said yesterday.
This is copied from the BBC news site on line.
A new four-step plan to ease England's lockdown could see all legal limits on social contact lifted by 21 June, if strict conditions are met.
Shops, hairdressers, gyms and outdoor hospitality could reopen on 12 April in England under plans set out by the PM.
From 17 May, two households might be allowed to mix in homes, while the rule of six could apply in places like pubs.
It requires four tests on vaccines, infection rates and new coronavirus variants to be met at each stage.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson told MPs the plan aimed to be "cautious but irreversible" and at every stage decisions would be led by "data not dates".
There was "no credible route to a zero-Covid Britain nor indeed a zero-Covid world", he said.
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Mr Johnson later told a Downing Street news conference the coming spring and summer would be "seasons of hope, looking and feeling incomparably better for us all".
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Local Bluebells last year - Season of Hope
He described the plan as a "one-way road to freedom" but said he could not guarantee it would be irreversible "but the intention is that it should be".
It comes as the first data on the UK's coronavirus vaccine rollout suggested it was having a "spectacular" impact on stopping serious illness.
Step-by-step
As part of the first step of the plan for easing lockdown in England:
From 8 March - All schools will open with outdoor after-school sports and activities allowed. Recreation in an outdoor public spaces - such as a park - will be allowed between two people, meaning they would be allowed to sit down for a coffee, drink or picnic
From 29 March - Outdoor gatherings of either six people or two households will be allowed. It is understood this will include gatherings in private gardens. Outdoor sports facilities such as tennis or basketball courts will reopen and organised adult and children's sport, such as grassroots football, will also return
Secondary school pupils can access tests and will be required to wear face coverings in classrooms and shared spaces like corridors.
There will be a gap of at least five weeks between each of the plan's subsequent steps to allow for the impact of changes on infection rates and hospital admissions to be assessed.
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image: istock
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The second step from 12 April 
would see major parts of the economy permitted to reopen:
Non-essential retail opens, hairdressers and some public buildings like libraries
Outdoor settings like alcohol takeaways, beer gardens, zoos and theme parks
Indoor leisure like swimming pools and gyms
Self-contained holiday accommodation, such as self-catering lets and camp sites
But wider social contact rules will continue to apply in all settings - meaning no indoor mixing between different households will be allowed.
Mr Johnson confirmed the end of hospitality curfews - and requirements to eat a substantial meal alongside alcohol.
He said a review of international leisure travel restrictions would be announced by 12 April at the earliest.
Funerals continue with up to 30 people, and weddings with up to 15 guests.
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The third step will come from 17 May
- if the data allows - and will see the "rule of six" abolished for outdoor gatherings, replaced with a limit of 30 people:
Two households can mix indoors - with the rule of six applied in hospitality settings like pubs
Cinemas, museums, hotels, performances and sporting events reopen - though social distancing remains
Up to 10,000 spectators can attend the very largest outdoor seated venues like football stadiums
Up to 30 people will be able to attend weddings, receptions, funerals and wakes.
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image: Cambridge Tent Company
Mr Johnson said this step would also "consider the potential role of Covid status certification" - which could refer to so-called "vaccine passports" - in helping indoor venues to reopen safely.
Before the fourth step, ministers will carry out a review into social distancing and other "long-term measures" designed to reduce transmission, including the "one metre plus" rule and the wearing of face coverings.
They will also consider whether to lift the "work from home" guidance, which the government says people should continue to follow until the review has been completed.
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The fourth step from 21 June 
will potentially see all legal limits on social contact removed, with the final closed sectors of the economy reopened - such as nightclubs.
The government hopes that - from this date - restrictions on weddings and funerals will also be abolished.
Music and events leaders called for more financial support for the sector, with the boss of one live music trade body saying his industry is "at the back of the queue to re-open" once restrictions are lifted.
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MPs will vote on the roadmap in late March.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer welcomed the plan but said certainty was needed over the future of the government furlough scheme for both businesses and workers.
Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said he thought the roadmap struck the "right balance" - but warned reopening schools risks increasing the number of cases reported each day.
Speaking later at the Downing Street briefing, UK chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said it was "very important" to leave a gap of five weeks between the changes in the roadmap to avoid "flying blind".
Sir Patrick also said "baseline" measures - such as face coverings in certain situations, hand washing, and self-isolation - may be necessary next winter.
Why the caution?
The vaccines are working well and infection levels have fallen five-fold since the start of the year.
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So why, many may ask, is there such caution?
The answer lies in the mountain of data published by the government as it unveiled its roadmap.
Among the documents was modelling done by Imperial College London.
It showed a rapid easing of restrictions could lead to surge in deaths over the summer and a total of 80,000 deaths by the middle of 2022.
There is much uncertainty about scenarios like this - for one thing it did not take into account any seasonal impact that the warmer weather could bring by reducing spread of the virus.
The gradual lifting could, by comparison, reduce that to around 30,000. That would bring it in line with the sort of deaths we could see during a bad flu winter.
UK chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty says that should be the context in which we judge Covid now.
The devolved nations have the power to set their own restrictions but have largely moved in the same direction, though at different speeds, during the pandemic.
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♦ PERSONAL NOTE: Crow had his first shot of the vaccine on Friday19th February 2021. He was given the Oxford-AstraZeneca version and had no side effects whatsoever. English policy is for second doses to be given 12 weeks later.
0 notes
epackingvietnam · 3 years
Text
The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?
Posted by Dr-Pete
I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:
The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?
What do we know?
Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.
Mobile-only indexing (March)
Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.
If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.
Core Web Vitals (May)
While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...
Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.
Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.
(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.
(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.
That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.
Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)
In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.
While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.
Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.
Core algorithm updates (TBD)
It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.
Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)
Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.
While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.
When will this end?
While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.
Where are we at right now?
As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).
Is it getting better or worse?
I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.
When might we reopen?
I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.
Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.
What can we do now?
First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).
If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.
If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.
Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.
In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.
I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
#túi_giấy_epacking_việt_nam #túi_giấy_epacking #in_túi_giấy_giá_rẻ #in_túi_giấy #epackingvietnam #tuigiayepacking
0 notes
bfxenon · 3 years
Text
The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?
Posted by Dr-Pete
I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:
The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?
What do we know?
Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.
Mobile-only indexing (March)
Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.
If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.
Core Web Vitals (May)
While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...
Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.
Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.
(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.
(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.
That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.
Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)
In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.
While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.
Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.
Core algorithm updates (TBD)
It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.
Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)
Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.
While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.
When will this end?
While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.
Where are we at right now?
As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).
Is it getting better or worse?
I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.
When might we reopen?
I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.
Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.
What can we do now?
First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).
If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.
If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.
Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.
In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.
I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes
nutrifami · 3 years
Text
The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?
Posted by Dr-Pete
I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:
The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?
What do we know?
Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.
Mobile-only indexing (March)
Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.
If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.
Core Web Vitals (May)
While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...
Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.
Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.
(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.
(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.
That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.
Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)
In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.
While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.
Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.
Core algorithm updates (TBD)
It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.
Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)
Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.
While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.
When will this end?
While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.
Where are we at right now?
As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).
Is it getting better or worse?
I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.
When might we reopen?
I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.
Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.
What can we do now?
First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).
If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.
If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.
Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.
In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.
I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes
xaydungtruonggia · 3 years
Text
The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?
Posted by Dr-Pete
I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:
The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?
What do we know?
Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.
Mobile-only indexing (March)
Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.
If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.
Core Web Vitals (May)
While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...
Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.
Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.
(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.
(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.
That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.
Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)
In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.
While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.
Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.
Core algorithm updates (TBD)
It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.
Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)
Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.
While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.
When will this end?
While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.
Where are we at right now?
As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).
Is it getting better or worse?
I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.
When might we reopen?
I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.
Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.
What can we do now?
First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).
If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.
If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.
Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.
In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.
I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes
ductrungnguyen87 · 3 years
Text
The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?
Posted by Dr-Pete
I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:
The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?
What do we know?
Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.
Mobile-only indexing (March)
Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.
If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.
Core Web Vitals (May)
While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...
Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.
Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.
(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.
(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.
That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.
Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)
In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.
While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.
Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.
Core algorithm updates (TBD)
It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.
Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)
Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.
While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.
When will this end?
While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.
Where are we at right now?
As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).
Is it getting better or worse?
I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.
When might we reopen?
I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.
Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.
What can we do now?
First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).
If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.
If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.
Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.
In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.
I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes
camerasieunhovn · 3 years
Text
The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?
Posted by Dr-Pete
I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:
The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?
What do we know?
Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.
Mobile-only indexing (March)
Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.
If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.
Core Web Vitals (May)
While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...
Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.
Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.
(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.
(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.
That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.
Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)
In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.
While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.
Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.
Core algorithm updates (TBD)
It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.
Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)
Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.
While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.
When will this end?
While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.
Where are we at right now?
As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).
Is it getting better or worse?
I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.
When might we reopen?
I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.
Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.
What can we do now?
First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).
If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.
If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.
Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.
In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.
I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes