#also normal distribution
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littlest furth shop
@laikascomet
#i think i had a little too much fun with this lol#i also wanted to draw road boy and other characters but maybe when they actually get introduced#i do have a sketch of him with a lil chainsaw.. im not gonna be normal when he gets introduced man he looks so sillygoofy#if you squint laika's eye marking is a clover yue's is a crescent moon and mars' is a star ^_^#i wanted to give laika an accessory too but i couldnt think of anything.. maybe a stack of pancakes??#im curious to see the apocalypse side of the story too.. like so far we have an idea of the comet fucking everything up#and im assuming that lead to a ripple effect causing the apocalypse but exactly how bad?? i cant wait to find out#rn im kinda piecing stuff together.. larkspur delivers mail in a beat up van so that might mean all transportation is grounded#the buildings we've seen so far are intact like the observatory and turnip's house but idk if thats the same for big cities#laikas playlist only includes songs downloaded on yue's computer and there hasnt been internet in 20 years.. but radio signals might#still work.. if yue grows his own food we can assume that mass production and distribution also isnt a thing anymore#sorry im a sucker for worldbuilding.. and the furth puns are fun to me. i like to think toronto would be clawronto.. and vancouver wld#be nyancouver.. barktic circle.. mewfoundland and labrador.. canyada....#christ i have so many drawing ideas. willow if youre reading this im so sorry youre probably gonna expect to see a lot of drawings frm me#like. i wanna draw laika in the akira bike pose so sosososo bad. IT WOULD BE SO AWESOMECOOL. ill teach myself to draw bikes if i have to#i also wanted to animate laika leekspin.. man#my art#myart#fanart#laika's comet#laikas comet#laika#mars#yue#furry art#fur#littlest pet shop#lps
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hey guys did you know that nightwing.
that dick grayson is. he is.
did you know nightwing is. he is so.
he is so pretty.
hmmngh
#hi my name is numi#and i love nightwing a normal amount#i am so normal about this guy#like you wouldn't believe#how normally in love i am with him#...#did you know that nightwing is sosososo gorgeous#hngh#using batman speak bc i can't speak#also go off socialist king#distribute that inheritance#also vampire king dick grayson???#he has my soul#i didn't include him bc he is too powerful#it'd be too much attractiveness#anyway#dick grayson#richard grayson#nightwing
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not weird enough i'm fucking killing myself
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i was at a Very Legit policy event recently and some Very Legit guy from the frickin' White House is on a panel, lamenting how government responsibilities are divided up weirdly:
"if a chicken wandering around DC has avian flu and it dies on the Natl Mall, it's the responsibility of the Natl Park Service. if it dies on the sidewalk NEXT to the mall, it's the responsibility of the DC metro police. if it dies on the front steps of one of the federal agencies, it's the responsibility of the Dept of Agriculture. but if YOU eat it and get sick, it's suddenly the responsibility of the CDC. does anyone see a problem with this?!"
and another person on the panel, a Very Legit academic researcher, leans forward, looks him dead in the eye, and says, "yeah, 'cause birds aren't real."
#also the attendees accidentally made a set of poll answers into the normal distribution and everyone started laughing#it was a very good event#daily life
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i ate what feels like so many calories tonight my tummy be sloshing. r u guys proud of meeee
#u can fetishize this its fine i dont feel that sick from the fullness#but also this isnt a kink thing for me im just chronically very underweight and keep trying and failing to gain#so uh 🥺 praise me for big meal and caloric drink#well big for me at least#maybe its like normal or sorta or still small for others#but for me its a lot!! and i managed to push through and eat basically all of it#on top of my snacks throughout the day like pretzels and candy and whatever else within reach#i worry if i gain new weight itll distribute wrong#but w how stressed i am and havent seen a doctor in years to deal with anything#ill probably never gain weight anyway#even if i do ill just be glad if i can gain back like 10-15 lbs i lost randomly and suddenly#rly happy this food didnt trigger any pain tho its like normal fullness its handleable#i feel warmmmm
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Twitter discourse on DIY testosterone-based HRT is killing me.
There's the refusal to acknowledge that estrogen-based HRT is honestly easier to get and take-- non-scheduled pills are different from a schedule III injected drug, even if you're buying both on the grey market.
That just because no trans masc has been arrested for taking DIY testosterone yet, doesn't mean there's no risk of possession being used as a weapon against trans mascs or used to track us.
That being forced off a doctor/pharmacy regimen and onto an unregulated grey market due to your existence being criminalized is intimidating, fraught, and unsafe, especially for younger and isolated guys.
That DIY for a scheduled substance means your supply is even more precarious than it might otherwise be and going on and off, and that precarity is chilling in itself.
And finally that making these statements doesn't mean I think people supporting DIY or doing DIY hormones are bad and should stop. If you want to find a way to help trans mascs with their medical needs, you have to have to be aware of how testosterone regimens are different medically and legally from estrogen regimens, and the multiple risks involved and how to mediate them.
And if you think I'm walking on the wrong side of the "safety vs needs" tightrope, that's fine. But it's killing me how much of the arguments just dismiss outright trans masc concerns about testosterone-specific worries.
#presumably because diy estrogen is more normalized#and also not a scheduled substance#i'd love for us to create distribution networks of our own#but we're not hysterical for pointing out massive safety issues that primarily affect testosterone-based HRT#ignore me i'm tired#zeb and i used to have to source weed as pain medication#getting consistent scheduled substances for medical purposes in a place where it is outright illegal#is exhausting
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Insane the amount of times ive taken my cat to the vet because she has looked extremely bloated ever since she was a kitten but all i ever get is “yah shes fine tbh she just has fatass syndrome”
#Her weight distribution is just like that?#she is a lil over a year old btw and has always looked like this#she also eats drinks sleeps and plays like a normal cat so#2 vets so for have said she is fine so i trust them but why she built like that#i would be worried if she acted even slightly different#but shes fine !!!!!#shes just so round
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Could u talk about how Carolina achieves goalie haven!!!!!! I am so intrigued sjdhsysosjshs (especially bc one of my fav players is an occasional Carolina goalie 🤭🤭🤭)
aaa Yes. sorry this took so long!!
One of the biggest questions among analysts in hockey is: how much of a goalie's quality is determined by the team they play behind? If you move a goalie to a different team and their numbers change drastically, is it the goalie not adjusting well to the move or is it the team? How separable is a goalie from his skaters?
So, we're going to talk about mathematics. Not in any technical terms, because it is two in the morning as I write this, but just sort of general stats stuff. In hockey (and in other sports but we're talking about hockey,) there is a metric called expected goals, or xG for short.
The general gist of xG, for the uninitiated: it is a made up number that you cannot watch the game and materialize, unlike shots or goals or times your favourite player was shown close up on camera -- you need a computer to generate it. There's also multiple different xG models, since every stat bro seems to have his own. However, they all function in a pretty similar way: determine the odds a shot goes in the net based off its location (on ice), its location (relative to the net), and its location (relative to other skaters, who may be inclined to block the shot in order to prevent this expected goal from becoming an actual one.)
Expected goals are, for lack of a better term, a smoother way of determining the way a game really went than its result. You ever watch a game where your team was in the offensive zone the whole time, just totally dominating play, but a couple of bad bounces and dumb mistakes means you lost? The expected goals might tell a different story.
Back to Carolina. Someone in their front office, many eons ago (I got seriously into hockey only last season, so I can't give you a date) realized this: over the course of one game, anything can happen, but over the course of a dozen? 82? the numbers tend to line up. So the most guaranteed way to win, at least through the regular season, is to find a way to jack up your xG and drop down your opponent's. And the way they do this is with Corsi.
If you're still uninitiated, Corsi is essentially the total amount of shot attempts: shots on goal plus blocked shots plus misses. Corsi ratios actually tend to line up very similarly with xG ratios: if you have twice the shot attempts of your opponent, odds are you'll have twice the goals. Quantity over quality!
The on-ice way they do this is with a very, very high-structure game: your defenders are there to dump the puck in and then make sure it doesn't get dumped out, and your forwards are there to chase the puck and pepper the opposing goalie with softies until he slips up. In the defensive zone, they hound the opponent's forwards, forcing them to either lob a soft one on net or give up the puck. Carolina is currently third in shots for per game (34.91), and dead first in shots against (25.74).
So: say you're a goalie on a team that routinely gives up 45 shots a game (hello John Gibson!) versus a goalie on a team that only gives up 25. That's a much, much lower workload -- on average one shot you'll have to stop every two and a half minutes or so (although shots as a rule tend to come in chunks, so the standard deviation is very high here.) And because you'll have this lower workload, odds on you'll be better rested for every shot, thereby being fresher and more likely to stop it.
Also, because of how tight Carolina is in the defensive zone, very few of these shots against are of significant quality -- they rarely give up breakaways, which are typically the major generator of high-danger chances.
All in all: a Carolina goalie is going to have a good time, not necessarily because they are a good goalie, but because they are in Carolina -- facing few chances and especially few high-danger ones allows the goalie an easier time stopping pucks, which boosts their stats.
#also i LOVE petya kochetkov btw#and freddie#carolina hurricanes#some more stats: carolina is first in corsi for %. first in fenwick (unblocked attempts) for %.#first in shots for and xG for % (and it's not especially close.)#first in high danger chances against (where lower is better.) second team is min#which has allowed 14 more highdanger chances against and created TWO HUNDRED FEWER high danger chances for.#carolina is the prototypical 'analytics darling' team. which means it shelters all of its players! this is good and cool#the major downside to this is that this is a highly random style: you rely less on pure skill and more on systems#so regression to the mean can be your best friend. playoffs can be difficult (because of the higher win % necessary to succeed)#and sometimes you end up with a calgary situation. who are also top five in most of the metrics given but are out of a playoff spot#those poor mfers ended up in the tail of the normal distribution#asks#hockey strategy
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#very curious what the distribution's gonna be like#cause we know it makes a binomial sorta curve normally#but what about when you're trying to pick the least picked option? will it just be the reverse?#ik there was a different one like this but there were only two options. so. new one where you can see a distrubution lol#poll#also hell yeah polls! i have them now :)#sewi's stuff
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Was listening to Leo/Need’s Kagerou Daze cover, and damn a 2dmv would have been wild. Like it would just be Ichika watching her friends get hit by a car again and again until she decides to let the car hit her — and plot twist, turns out they were all in a time loop trying to save each other.
#that being said I wanna read a fanfic on this now#i think the lyric distribution was kinda implying this version#but that’s also the normal lyric distribution so#project sekai#pjsk#ichika hoshino#shiho hinomori#saki tenma#honami mochizuki#leoneed#leo need#kagerou daze
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Aw shit here we go again...
#in case anyone’s wondering why im rbbing Seventeen out of nowhere... idk... i was chosen by svt distribution system#it was friday (29th) evening and I was scrolling tiktok and minding my own business when Mingyu's cute ass came up on my fyp#the rest is history...#its crazy bc every group i actually get into has been on accident and against my will#every time i try to get into a group intentionally it never works kdjdkdjd#anywah#im halfway thru their discography (and have fml on repeat... that EP FUCKS...) and have yet to skip any song...#are they even capable of making bad music?????#this is not normal....#also rip me... i have 8 years of content to catch up to#and theyre on the verge of military age🤡#every single time🤡🤡🤡#niki screaming into the void
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if your argument against a 4 or 6 hour workday is ‘I need more time than that to get everything I need to do done’ and your job doesn’t involve your constant undivided attention on a single task for inordinate lengths of time (surgeon, pilot, etc.), the problem isn’t that you need more time in the day to get stuff done, the problem is that you’re overworked.
#spitblaze says things#and im aware 'overworked' is a broad term here#thats on purpose. sometimes that means youre given more tasks than one person should reasonably handle#sometimes that means you have a lot of superfluous shit you need to do on top of the stuff that actually NEEDS to get done#sometimes that means you need to set a hard limit on how long and how often meetings are#and usually it means ur company is intentionally hiring as few people as it can get away with so they dont have 2 pay more people#(at the low cost of shit not being distributed well enough to keep ur employees from drowning on just a normal-ass day)#and the list goes on. the point is. if u dont have a job that REALLY needs YOU SPECIFICALLY there for 6+ hours.#ur almost definitely being overworked in some way#also. shifts! shifts are a GREAT way to mitigate 'but we need more time to be open'#HIRE MORE PEOPLE AND GET ANOTHER SHIFT GOIN. LET PEOPLE WORK THE 4/6 HOURS THEY WANNA#INSTEAD OF EXPECTING EVERYONE TO CONFORM TO THE SAME FUCKIN SCHEDULE#AND NEED TO TAKE VALUABLE FREE TIME IN ORDER TO DO BASIC SHIT LIKE GO TO THE DOCTOR OR THE DMV OR WHATEVER#sorry im in a commie sorta mood tonite U_U
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.
#I’ve been thinking (and being alone with my thoughts like this is sometimes dangerous but what can ya do)#and like. I think I’ve been trying to make my standards high when it comes to dating to protect myself from getting hurt#which. of course? why wouldn’t I? but like. I think I tried to make my standards impossibly high so that when nobody lived up to them#I could just be like ‘oh! how sad! anyway it’s safer for me to be single because [whatever bullshit reason I can come up with]’#and this does protect me from getting hurt. but it also protects me from good things like. being intimate with someone.#which. if I were to be perfectly honest? that’s the only thing in my life I think I’ve ever really wanted more than anything#but of course I’m scared of that. because being intimate with someone requires opening up to them.#laying yourself bare and hoping they stick around after seeing what you bring to the table.#and like. I feel like I’m the guy who is firmly planted in one of the tails of a normal distribution#(and I’m not talking about the better-than-average part of the distribution if you get what I mean)#so like. I know there probably aren’t a lot of people who would stick around after I took off all my masks and laid myself bare before them#and I haven’t met many people I’d be willing to try that for#but sometimes. someone comes into your life and you feel like you’re ready to risk it all#but you don’t. because being vulnerable is a dangerous place to be. feeling as desperate as I do at times is a dangerous place to be#and so I’m probably not going to risk anything. but. listen like#why.. if my standards are so high.. is there this person in my life capable of meeting all of them.#and why.. when I’m this out of my mind for someone.. do there seem to be so many obstacles between me and them#why do I always fall for the ones who listen to me and show me kindness when I’m fragile.#even when there isn’t a chance in heaven or hell that it’s gonna work out.#why do I often think about how many times we’ve hugged. why do I want to live up to their high opinion of me.#why do I play the things they’ve said to me over and over in my head like a broken record.#why do I always have to obsess about the people I fall for. why can’t I just be normal about this.#like. this is starting to get in the way of my everyday life. it’s occupying my mind most of the time. this can’t be healthy.#in short. why the Fuck am I Like This and How Do I Stop.
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like i think fma is a good comparison to trigun in terms of disabled fictional characters that can fight or whatever in their universe. fma's characters that lost an arm or leg are mostly protagonists, not some random wacky antagonist that are never seen again
#personal#theres also the diff discussion of fiction... not being serious? making it an aesthetic#i remember reading abt how ppl imagine all this cool shit w prosthetics and then the people receiving them (which were also usually very#expensive) found them hard to use and the functionality was poor and it clearly valued aesthetics#and the people who made it were like 🤷♂️#but ig a solution in that is to just be normal abt it#nightow's got good and bad characters. normal and wacky ones. lichrally just distribute it evenly...#anyways post inspired by me looking for a Sad vash pic and coming upon another wacky villain w a gun for an arm i didnt know about#u can make it a game. take a shot every time u see a bad guy missing a body part 🙄#*shakes fist* nightow!!!
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Not to uhm start fights at work, but is it just me or is the pareto principle bullshit?
#totes bro#im always confused because like a normal distribution actually plays out#but this? does not make sense#also apparently people use it to support income inequality?#idk is it too much to ask that management techniques be evidence based?#i just dont understand why we keep doing things that dont make any sense#and my bosses believe this is the thing that gets me like arent you guys engineers?#do you really think this makes sense? that this would be some kind of natural law?#why not just describe these things as a long tail distribution?
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Anyway in good news I went to a live drawing class yesterday and this is going to sound wanky but the naked human body is genuinely beautiful and I love it when bodies that aren't Hollywood Approved(tm) exist
#our model was chubby/fat too which was also really nice because every single artistic nude or reference pose I've seen has been of#a skinny person. It was just nice to have someone who was a) representative of a Normal person & b) enabled me to practice#drawing fat distribution and proportion on a body type I hadn't been able to before#captain's log
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