okay so do I buy crazy expensive tickets for MCR + a plane ticket + hotel for a dangerous environment where I can only barely see mcr or maybe not see them at all

or

wait until they HYPOTHETICALLY tour again and buy cheaper in state tickets for a venue

Overview of Covens

So as we’ve established in Covention, covens are essentially clubs/job-markets that witches join. Each coven specializes in a form of magic, and each member is restricted to that particular kind of magic. It’s possibly for the rest of their lives, although it’s possible that a witch can switch covens- We don’t have confirmation on this yet.

What we DO know is that, according to Gus, there are hundreds of covens, some a lot more specific than others. But above them all stand the nine, primary covens;

-Beast Keeping

-Abomination

-Plant

-Potions

-Healing

-Bard

-Illusion

-Oracle

-Construction

Starting off, it’s easy to see why these are the ‘main’ covens- They all contribute towards a major aspect of society’s roles. The Beast Keeping and Plant Covens grant Witches control over all other forms of life that aren’t already sapient members of society. Additionally, they can be integral in producing livestock and produce, creating a food supply for society that can be refined by lesser covens such as the Bakers Coven.

The Healing Coven’s role goes without saying- They’re the healthcare of the Boiling Isles, alongside Potions (which can help with curses), which likely perform additional functions as well. The ingredients for potions probably comes from the Plant and Beast Keeping Covens as well.

The Oracle Coven is incredibly useful with its fortune-telling capabilities. It can help Witch society prepare for and anticipate future events accordingly, tell the future, etc. This can go hand-in-hand with all of the other Covens, such as the Construction Coven, whose whole purpose is creating buildings from which society can live and function within.

The Bard Coven is interesting to me- I’m no expert at what bards do, but from what I can tell they specialize in music, some of which can accomplish other things. While it’s likely Bard Magic has practical utilities, it possibly fulfills the role of entertainment, which every good society needs to be content. The same applies to the Illusion Coven, which could also be used for hiding things, keeping things in line, or just maintaining order in general. Perhaps Bard magic can sway and pacify others, which when combined with the Illusion Coven, is highly potent.

Finally, there are Abominations- The disposable workers and servants of the Boiling Isles. They bypass the ethical issues of slavery by lacking genuine sapience, and seem capable of functioning as front-line soldiers, brute force, etc. No doubt they’d be incredibly useful for the handicapped and those with disabilities due to their obedience, understanding of orders, and not needing food or water to function.

Moving on from the nine main covens, we have a lengthy, yet incomplete, list of the lesser covens. Most of these I discerned from looking at the background and listening to dialogue, but so far we have;

-Succulent

-Pottery

-Cat

-Small Cat

-Tiniest Cat

-Flower

-Menders

-Sin a Bun (AKA Cinnamon Buns/Sin)

-Stylist

-Artist

-Dog

-Cooking

-Fashion

-Debate

-Cantrip

-Scrying

-Meditation

-Chef’s

-Candle Makers

-Carnivorous Plant

-Punky Potioness

-Oculus

-Prose

-Bakers

-Reaction

-Incidental

-History

-Wood Carvers

There’s also possibly the Rhyming, Swag, and Grumpy Covens. However, I’m not 100% sure on their status as actual covens, since the first and third were mentioned as jokes (and thus may be entirely hypothetical), while the Swag Coven is only seen on one of King’s bracelets from the Covention. It COULD be an actual Coven, or just a catchphrase, I’m not entirely confident.

(It’s obvious that a lot of these covens are mostly background jokes that lack any actual worldbuilding purpose. But for fun, let’s include them anyway.)

Obviously a lot of these overlap or are very similar- Succulents, Flower, and Carnivorous Plant fall beneath the Plant Coven, for example. Getting into speculation-territory, it makes me wonder if there are technically only nine forms of magic (what with how specific some of these Covens get). Perhaps the restriction only applies to the nine major covens- Thus, if a witch was bound to plant magic, they’d still be able to use spells from the Succulent or Flower Covens? Likewise, if they were specifically part of the Flower Coven, they might still be able to do Succulent Magic?

At Hexside, there seem to be Magic tracks, with only nine dedicated to each major coven. It could easily be like real-life schools teaching science, math, etc., but not veterinarian skills. However, it DOES make me wonder if there are only nine bindings corresponding to each coven, and the rest of the lesser covens are considered lesser, not just because they’re less important, but also because their individual forms of magic fall within a larger category, and thus don’t need to be restricted as much.

(TL;DR There are only nine forms of magic and all of the other covens are just really specific clubs. Ergo, a Witch can’t be restricted to only Tiniest Cat magic, just Beast-Keeping Magic because the Tiniest Cat Coven falls under that category.)

There’s also the Emperor’s Coven, which bypasses these questions and issues entirely by lacking any bindings whatsoever. Of course, only the most elite and privileged are allowed access to that much potential and variety, and it just so happens that the most unpredictable, difficult-to-control Witches are the ones reporting directly to Emperor Bellows himself. This way, Bellows can maintain an elite force of Witches who report directly to him, while ensuring they’re stronger than everyone else in order to maintain his authority. 

As a whole, the Coven System seems to not only encourage society to specialize in certain niche roles, but it also keeps Witch society weaker than those who maintain Bellows’ authority as well. It’s, as Luz might put it, “Fiendishly clever.”

[Where My Twin Watches]: Puella Magi Madoka Magica Episode 3

Last time, on PMMM- Uh, never mind then, we’re starting without a recap. Person in a (hospital?) bed, looking out a window? Yup, looks like a hospital hallway, Sayaka’s outside the door, seems nervous. Visiting someone?

She’s giving the guy a CD- oh, this must be from Ep 1’s music store. Which would make this guy *checks Ep 1 notes* Kamijo? I can’t tell from the lighting, but I think he has bluish hair. So is a relative of Sayaka, younger brother? Ooh, looks like a classical CD, nice taste. Kamijo thanks her for finding a rare CD. It’s even a soloist that he knows, nice touch! He offers an earbud so Sayaka can listen as well- are you blushing, Sayaka? Reconsidering my assumption of family connection. Confirmation that they are in a hospital so they can’t play over a speaker, he leans over and yeah this is definitely a crush on Sayaka’s part, blush and shimmery eyes and everything. Aw, this is sweet, listening to some nice calm music- memory? Little boy playing violin on a stage and dressed-up Sayaka in the audience. Oh, so if this is Kamijo playing then she saw him back then and they became friends later? Seriously digging this music. Wait, is Kamijo… crying? Oh. Oh no. Oh god damn it. Kamijo’s crying, his left hand is twitching and he has a bandage on his arm… Is he in the hospital from an accident or something, and his left arm got messed up? Can he not play anymore? That’s… that’s pretty heavy. Um, yeah. Sorry, that intro was a bit of a kick, the peppy song’s not really doing it for me right now. I mean, I’m way out of practice with my own playing, as as a trumpet player I use my right hand a lot more than my left, but… damn. Ahem. Let’s get back to the review, shall we? Mami! Corkscrew Hair is doing what she do, and obliterating another witch with ‘Tiro Finale’. And there is just something hilarious at seeing this blonde middle-schooler standing on top of a lamppost, easily balancing a massive gun twice her size with one hand. Sayaka and Madoka come out of cover to compliment her, Mami tries to remind them that fighitng witches is dangerous but come on Mami, you’re doing awesome right now. Think of how effective the team will be when the girls get their powers! Hey, that’s right Madoka, I didn’t see a Grief Seed this time. Ah, Kyubey explains it was just a familiar, and that’s going to be confusing seeing as I’ve been calling Kyubey a Familiar this whole time. Should I go back to using Rabbit-Thing, or is there another phrase that works better? Anyways, seems that Witches have familiars that don’t carry Grief Seeds. And the girls have only been fighting ‘duds’ lately, so no more powerups. Still, like Mami says, better to take out the minions so they don’t cause trouble. And wow yeah, if familiars can grow into full witches then you definitely want to take them out. Well, that’s one more eldritch creature dealt with, onwards! Mami’s asking if the girls have figured out their wishes, both say that they still aren’t sure. Oh yeah, why not ask what Mami wished for, maybe she has some insight. Wait, why did she stop? Oh come on, PMMM! A car crash?! First you smack me down with that depressing hospital scene, and now you’re telling me that Mami had to use her wish to not die?! Jebus. Well, at least Kyubey showed up in time to help, but dang that’s a missed opportunity. Still, Mami doesn’t regret it (understandable, as the alternative was dying, but Madoka and Sayaka have a chance to actually consider their wishes. Best that they take advantage of that. Wait. Wait wait wait. Car crash, end of last episode Mami saying she doesn’t have anyone to talk to, she lives on her own- oh what the hell. Mami’s an orphan? No. NO. Not cool, PMMM. Ok, we need flowers and chocolates and hugs for Mami stat. Get on it, commenters! After that depressing as hell realization, Sayaka- ooh, clarification on the wish, good for you Sayaka! More rules please. “If you make a wish, does it have to be for yourself?” Strictly hypothetical, of course. Yeah, you aren’t fooling Kyubey (or us), Sayaka. You want to help out Kamijo? Aw, that’s sweet. Kyubey confirms that the wish does not have to be for the contractee, and that there’s actually precedent for it. I’m trying to keep track of these Wish Rules, get an idea of what our characters will wish for; Wish Rules 1) The contract comes with one Wish 2) The Wish can grant “even the most impossible of miracles” 3) The Wish does not have to be used for/on the Contractee Anything I’ve missed so far? Huh, Mami is actually counseling against using the Wish on someone else. Although I’m not sure this caution about making doubly sure you know what you’re wishing for applies, it’s pretty clear that Kamijo wants to play music again. Oh. Um, yeah. Ok, that’s a good point. “Do you actually wish to grant his dream so that he will be grateful to you?” A bit harsh, but probably best that Mami’s brought it up. Right now the Wish has so many potentials, but once it’s used it’s gone for good. So then, how can we structure this Wish so we can help Kamijo and not have it be about Sayaka’s crush? Because yeah, I’m picturing a scenario where Sayaka’s trying to convince Kamijo that she healed him with the help of a magical talking Rabbit-Thing who’s totally right here, he’s just invisible to you. Commenters, when you’re done with Mami-hugs get on that too! But just as we settle on not rushing into the Wish, Kyubey pipes up about it being better for him if they decide sooner. Hey, I don’t know how you grant these Wishes, Rabbit-Thing, but I’m with Mami: they’ll decide on their own time, don’t pressure them. Back at Madoka’s home, she’s thinking over the Wish while Kyubey sits there, he seems to have relented on rushing their decision. Good for you, Kyubey. Hmm, he also can’t suggest wishes because it’s against the rules? 4) Kyubey cannot suggest a Wish Huh, but Madoka asks if just wishing to become a Magical Girl would work. And rather for power for its own sake, Madoka… or maybe it is for its own sake? Aw, Madoka’s doing the “I’m not smart or talented” thing that young Protagonists do. Wait, you’re comparing yourself to Mami? Madoka, don’t do that, Mami’s a full-fledged MG and you’re still a Muggle, of course you’re going to seem ‘lesser’ compared to that. Give it time! But this is an interesting view, the Protagonist simply wanting to be like someone she admires. Wait, “you’d be much more powerful than Mami”? We’re talking about the ‘kill witches with a single shot’ girl here, right, not some other Mami? But it depends on what kind of wish she makes? And he can’t tell how large of a Soul Gem Madoka would summon? Protagonist powers, ho! Yeah, “never met another girl with such enormous potential as you”. If this means that Madoka will be measurably stronger than Mami, then this is going to be amazing. Wait, interruption of ‘Super Special Protagonist Talk’ by Father, seems Mother is… drunk out of her mind. Wow, didn’t think she was a drinker, and based on Madoka’s reaction this is way too common. Character flaw, nice job on fleshing out Madoka’s family, PMMM! Now this is a lovely family; put the drunk Mother to bed, then the Father and Daughter enjoy a late-night hot chocolate. Futher characterization of the Mother as they discuss how she likes to try her best, and that emerges as a fearsome work drive. “While she may not be living a dream, they way she is living is ideal to her.” More philosophy! And good philosophy for an early Protagonist who’s uncertain about where her life will go with these magical discoveries.

Hey Mami, what’s up? Going hunting on your own tonight? Or just visiting a fountai- HOLY CRAP HOMURA. Where the hell did you come from? Oh, are you really trying the “you’re involving innocents in our dispute” gambit? You’re the one who threatened Madoka’s family, you do not get to try and claim moral high ground. And as Mami said, they’re MG potentials, they can see the danger. Ok, now you’re ticking me off, Homura. “You’re trying to lead them so that they want to be magical girls”? Lead nothing, it’s the smart move! They get powers, they get a Wish, and whatever danger a Witch poses is much better handled by three than one. And since you refuse to team up… Aha, Madoka was namedropped. So you can sense her Protagonist Potential like Kyubey? Oh, and Mami can sense it as well. Dang, the sound and lighting in this ‘conversation’ is top notch, as civil as it sounds you’re really getting the sense of two powerful magic users facing eachother down. ...wow, that was a blow, Mami. Calling out Homura for being afraid someone stronger than her will show up, saying that’s how a bullied child thinks. Yeah, Homura did not like that. Yeah, Mami is fed up with Homura’s attitude. “You don’t want to fight? Then make sure we don’t meet again.” Definitely getting more direct in the conversation, but given this girl threatened Madoka, tried to kill Kyubey, and has refused all offers of charity and partnership, there’s really nothing more that Mami can do. Yup, Homura’s pissed. She knows she’s weaker, doesn’t want to share, and only stands to fall further behind if things keep up. I’m worried she’s going to try something drastic. (See theory of her summoning Giant Winged Thing) The next day! Sayaka’s visiting the hospital again, or not? Ok, she went to try and visit Kamijo, but has just met up with Madoka and Kyubey in the waiting room, seems he was preoccupied. Well this is a hospital Sayaka, I’d think he has surgeries or whatnot to do occasionally. Why did you stop, Madoka? Oh crap that’s a Grief Seed. That’s a Grief Seed, at a hospital, and it’s about to hatch. This is the worst place one could show up- Wait. This really is the worst place one could show up. A hospital full of sick or injured people, including Sayaka’s friend/crush? Discovered just as it’s about to hatch by the two non-MGs? And it looks like it’s stuck in the pillar… Oh Homura you bitch. Is this really how low you will go, planting witches to try and scare off or remove the competition? That’s it, you are officially on my List. Ok, they need to get Mami here now, if not sooner. But… they don’t have Mami’s number? Ok, then can they use Kyubey to telepath her? No, seems they can’t do that. So Madoka will have to go find her (hopefully she’s at her apartment) while Sayaka stays behind. Sayaka that is a terrible idea, you aren’t prepared to face a labyrinth. Ah there we go! That’s better, have Kyubey stay with Sayaka so when Madoka and Mami get within telepath range they can stay in touch, if Sayaka ends up in the labyrinth. And if worst comes to worst, then Sayaka can ask a Wish and get her powers, better than being stuck in there on her own as a Muggle. Still, I hope that Mami gets here soon. Madoka’s off to find Mami, and ok guess the Seed is hatching now, Sayaka and Kyubey have vanished. And we’re in trippy Witch Land again! Huh, this one seems much more hospital themed than the last one. So the Labyrinth designs change based on the location? Cool! Sayaka and Kyubey are going into the labyrinth, and Kyubey’s suggesting what I did, that if she decided on a Wish then he could make her a Magical Girl. Well, unless there’s some time required for the contract to form, as long as they aren’t at immediate risk I’d motion for patience here, Mami should be here soon to take over. Oh hey, they’re at the Seed already. It hasn’t hatched? Oh, so the labyrinth forms first, then the Seed hatches. So they’ve got more time then. Sayaka’s showing patience as well, seems the earlier conversation on thinking over a Wish sunk in. Later, Mami and Madoka have shown up to the site, and they’ve opened up the gate and can contact Kyubey now. They’re ok for now, Sayaka even claims boredom. But since large amounts of magic could disturb the egg, Mami and Madoka are going to go on foot to catch up. Stealth over speed, got it. Back in Hospital Land (huh, I’m seeing a lot of cookies and cakes now, what’s with that?), Mami is guiding Madoka along, while admonishing Sayaka for taking such a risk. But she does admit it was a clear-headed call. Good to see that Sayaka is getting some tactical sense, always nice to see characters develop traits. Now they ca Homura. We don’t have time to deal with you, Dark Magical Girl. And you do not get to claim this “prey”, not when I know what you did! And like hell are we going to let you be alone with Kyubey and non-MG Sayaka. Yes, thank you Mami! Don’t waste any time, just detain her and move on. There’s a witch to go kill. “This witch is not like the others!” Gee, I wonder how you know that? Seriously, just shut up Homura, Mami has to go and clean up your mess. Ok, with the others keeping an eye on the Seed and Homura tied up, things should be calm enough for a conversation. Madoka’s taking the chance to discuss the Wish with Mami- oh, you’ve thought of one? But you’re worried that it might be naive, so you’ll run it by the MG. Good, that’s a safe call. Aw, Madoka’s giving her “I’m no used to anyone and have to bother others for help” deal. Madoka, you are stronger than you know, you’re the Protagonist. But it’s sweet that her concern is over not being able to help others- Ah, I think I know how to describe it now. It’s not “Power for its own sake”, it’s “Power for others' sakes.” Yes, good for you Madoka! That is the kind of unambiguous heroine we can all support. Madoka’s describing how she saw Mami fighting for others, and that she knew that was what she wanted. And given the possibility that she could do the same thing- Um. Mami does not look happy. So all Madoka wants is to become a Magical Girl, to have the power to help others. That is her Dream. Which kind of makes the Wish superfluous. And Mami just let go of her hand. Uh oh. Mami, please don’t dampen this, Precious Protagonist is Precious. Well, Mami is correct, having the powers is a burden, she’ll be at risk of injury and will have complications regarding a ‘normal’ life. But Madoka doesn’t mind, she thinks that highly of Mami! Mami. Mami no. You are absolutely worth looking up to. You fight to protect others. You’ve endured such hardship and still try to use your powers for good. You have saved lives. But I get it. You’re scared, you have no one to really talk to. You’ve been alone from the time of the crash to now. (Feels) Madoka: “But you’re not alone any more, Mami.” (Feeeeeels) Aw no, please don’t cry Mami, this is… this is… oh wow. Ok, I know that they’re on a mission, that Sayaka and Kyubey are waiting for them, that a hospital is at risk, but… this is adorable. This is sweet. Mami and Madoka talking right now… That’s it, I give in. I apologize to whom it may offend, but I ship it. Mami, who’s shown incredible power but has been alone all this time? Madoka, the uncertain Protagonist who will one day come into her own? I really like this, the two of them working together. (Don’t worry Sayaka, you’ve got your crush. Although I can see her poking fun at these two on future missions. Hee!) Ok, after the adorableness they’re setting back on track, but Madoka does still have a Wish, even if she ‘just’ wants to be a MG. Hah! That’s one way to make her think about it, give her until the witch is defeated or they’ll use it for a cake. To celebrate their becoming a magical girl duo! (Yeah, I ship this! No stopping this boat!) Whoops! I guess the witch finally got tired of waiting, the Seed is going to hatch! Time for subtlety is over, bring it on Creeps! Ok, now Mami’s just showing off, with all those dancing moves and twirling of rifles. Awesome, they caught up with Sayaka and Kyubey. Here comes the witch! … what. No seriously, what? That’s the witch? That’s a doll. Aaand Mami just knocked its chair out from under it. Oh, I get it. Newly-hatched witch, going to be weaker before it feeds. Looks like they got there just in time! Batter up! And the doll goes flying! Barely dodges a few shots before slumping to the ground, and Mami just executes it. Time for the finishing move? “Tiro Finale!” And the witch is Wait no, something just came out. A Clown Worm? Oh, so the witch has a second form. Ok, just wait what what just happened Um. The ribbons that were holding Homura just vanished. So… Mami released the spell, decided to let Homura fight the second stage with her? Why are you not WHAT

WHAT THE HELL Mami is being held from the top of the screen, she’s twitching, her uniform just dispelled and she just fell down. Mami fell down and the worm is… the worm is eating I can hear it eating Madoka. Madoka and Sayaka don’t look just get out run run now Yes, thank you Kyubey! Make the contract now, you have to do it! Stop watching and make the damn contract oh hell the worm is looking up, it sees them. Homura. Homura just… do something, don’t It just ate Homura. I don’t know, what the hell. Wait, it missed? It keeps on missing, or she’s just barely dodging. And now the worm is exploding? Whatever Homura’s doing the worm is getting hit, and I think the worm is finally down. But now she’s walking towards the girls. There was a clink. The witch’s Grief Seed just fell and shattered a teacup. Mami. “Burn this sight into your minds. This is what it means to be a magical girl.” The labyrinth is collapsing, the four are back at the hospital. Homura, you NO Put that Seed down, Homura! Mami died for it, you do not get to swoop in and and No fuck that you do not get to have that Seed just because you’re a Magical Girl. You don’t Homura’s gone. Kyubey is sitting there. Sayaka and Madoka are crying. I… Uh, the credits are here, and the song changed? I… I think this is the same music from the Dream. Staticky Madoka is walking along past other staticky forms That’s Mami. That’s Mami’s silhouette. The episode end still has the flute music and an picture of Madoka in her uniform and Kyubey. “Mami… was truly a kind-hearted person. To make us really understand what kind of resolve we’d need in order to fight...she...Miracles and Magic are real.” ...I’m going to take some time to process this. I will try to be more coherent later.

The Simulation Argument: Why We Might Already Be Living in Virtual Reality

The essay that you (or your avatar) are reading right now is about the Simulation Argument, formulated by Professor Nick Bostrom of Oxford University. But really, it’s a story about uncertainty.

It’s a cautionary tale against intellectual hubris and snobbery, as well as an admonition to enrich your own life and expand your range of possibilities.

Take the plunge with me, and we’ll see why Professor Bostrom thinks it’s possible we’re living in a computer simulation, run by advanced humans in some distant future.

THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

In a famous paper entitled, Are We Living in a Computer Simulation?, Bostrom argues that at least ONE of the following propositions must be true:

(1) The human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage.

(2) Any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof).

(3) We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

Think about it: If crazy high-tech future humans simulate billions of universes, there will be billions of fake universes and just one “base reality.” The chances of being born into the base reality (as opposed to one of the simulations) would be astronomically low. Thus, if such a thing has already happened, we’re probably in a simulation right now.

However, we may not be. If our species is sufficiently volatile and self-destructive, such that we’re unlikely to survive long enough to become posthuman, or if for some reason our posthuman descendants don’t care much for simulating universes, we’re probably not living in a computer simulation.

And that’s the Simulation Argument. It’s really pretty straightforward and easy enough to understand. But as you can see, it’s the sort of idea that could keep you awake at night, wondering how “real” our reality really is.

For his part, Bostrom doesn’t claim to actually believe that we’re living in a computer simulation; he just admits that it’s possible.

In fact, Bostrom states:

“We may hope that (3) is true since that would decrease the probability of (1), although if computational constraints make it likely that simulators would terminate a simulation before it reaches a posthuman level, then our best hope would be that (2) is true.”

In other words, hopefully we are in a simulation, Bostrom says, because that would mean we aren’t likely to destroy ourselves entirely. However, if we are in a simulation and the simulators might “turn off” our reality sometime soon because keeping it running requires too much computing power, we should hope that our descendants simply don’t tend to simulate their past for whatever reason.

Personally, if one of those three propositions must be true, I hope it’s (2) regardless. I’m not sure why we would hope first and foremost that we are living in a simulation, rather than hoping that our descendants don’t care much for running ancestor simulations.

I highly recommend reading the original Simulation Argument, and I think you’ll find that it’s not nearly as intellectually intimidating as it might first appear. Indeed, compared to Nick Bostrom, my skull is a bag of hammers, and I didn’t have TOO much difficulty understanding it (although I did have to read it twice before I felt like I finally “got” it).

Now, while attempting to avoid references to The Matrix, let’s dig deeper into the Simulation Argument and its relation to the world of dreams, in hopes of further illuminating its mind-bending implications.

SIMULATIONS, DREAMS, IGNORANCE

“We accept the reality of the world with which we’re presented. It’s as simple as that.”

— Christof, The Truman Show

Doesn’t it strike you that existence is really quite weird?

I said that I wouldn’t make too many Matrix references, but I didn’t say anything about Men in Black references, so here goes:

Think back to what we used to KNOW about life on earth:

We used to know for a fact that the earth was the center of the universe.

We used to know that leeches were the cure for freakin’ everything.

We used to know that our hands were always clean and that washing them before performing potentially life-saving surgeries was a waste of time.

In light of all this, reflect for a moment on the likelihood that what we “KNOW” today represents some kind of absolute truth.

There seems to be an unbreachable chasm between the subjective and objective world. So says Chuck Klosterman in one of the most thought-provoking books I read in 2017, But What If We’re Wrong?.

Speaking of weirdness, Klosterman says:

“Every night, we’re all having multiple metaphysical experiences, wholly constructed by our subconscious. Almost one-third of our lives happens inside surreal mental projections we create without trying. A handful of highly specific dreams, such as slowly losing one’s teeth, are experienced unilaterally by unrelated people in unconnected cultures. But these events are so personal and inscrutable that we’ve stopped trying to figure out what they mean.”

Every night, most of us enter a dream-state where the physical laws of the universe are completely suspended, and we have little to no idea what this means.

Many people don’t think dreams are worth looking into. But I think that in dreams, such as in life, it all matters, or none of it matters.

Would a simulation be much different from a dream, experientially?

There is nothing to suggest that a technologically advanced civilization with enough computing power couldn’t recreate everything that we think is real.

The precise values of gravity and the mass of electrons could have been set by a simulator which created the experience we’re all having right now.

Nobody is really sure about the existence of any possible “upper bound” on the amount of computing power that may be available in the future. And as Professor Bostrom explains, a hypothetical simulator would only need a sufficient amount of computing power to ensure that the simulated humans (us) don’t notice any “irregularities.” You know, cars starting themselves, or cats barking—that kind of stuff.

He goes on to say:

“The microscopic structure of the inside of the Earth can be safely omitted [from the simulation]. Distant astronomical objects can have highly compressed representations: verisimilitude need extend to the narrow band of properties that we can observe from our planet or solar system spacecraft. On the surface of Earth, macroscopic objects in inhabited areas may need to be continuously simulated, but microscopic phenomena could likely be filled in ad hoc. What you see through an electron microscope needs to look unsuspicious, but you usually have no way of confirming its coherence with unobserved parts of the microscopic world…Should any error occur, the director could easily edit the states of any brains that have become aware of an anomaly before it spoils the simulation. Alternatively, the director could skip back a few seconds and rerun the simulation in a way that avoids the problem.”

Who might this “director” be?

Could it be “us” in the future, curious enough about our evolutionary past to want to run a simulation in order to view history over again, or perhaps to play around with the variables?

Chuck Klosterman chimes in with a humbling proposition:

And in that case, there IS a simulator – maybe some kid in his garage in the year 4956 – who is determining and defining the values of the constants in this new universe that he built on a Sunday morning on a supercomputer. And within that universe, there are beings who will wonder, “Who set the values of these numbers that allow stars to exist?” And the answer is the kid. There WAS an intelligent being outside that universe who was responsible for setting the values for these essential numbers.”

Turning the microphone back to Professor Bostrom, he says:

“If we are living in a simulation, then the cosmos that we are observing is just a tiny piece of the totality of physical existence. The physics in the universe where the computer is situated that is running the simulation may or may not resemble the physics of the world that we observe. While the world we see is in some sense “real”, it is not located at the fundamental level of reality.”

And just like a dream… we would NEVER be able to know for sure.

Except, perhaps, when it ends.

“Once upon a time, I dreamt I was a butterfly, fluttering hither and thither, to all intents and purposes a butterfly. I was conscious only of my happiness as a butterfly, unaware that I was myself. Soon I awaked, and there I was, veritably myself again. Now I do not know whether I was then a man dreaming I was a butterfly, or whether I am now a butterfly, dreaming I am a man.”

— Zhuangzi

Bostrom then considers an “objection” that I had been carrying around while reading the first part of his Simulation Argument paper: Why does it have to be an ancestor simulation?

Couldn’t it be some sort of training program or virtual reality experience solely for entertainment?

He cuts me off by saying that:

“In addition to ancestor-simulations, one may also consider the possibility of more selective simulations that include only a small group of humans or a single individual. The rest of humanity would then be zombies or “shadow-people” – humans simulated only at a level sufficient for the fully simulated people not to notice anything suspicious.”

(I KNEW those people at the Department of Motor Vehicles were just “shadow-people”!!!)

All right, time to hold onto something to keep the room from spinning. Let all that sink in, and keep forging ahead.

CRITICS AND SUPPORTERS OF THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

There are people out there who *GASP* don’t think that the Simulation Argument is worth considering at all.

These are likely the same people who keep turning my music down at the gym, or tell me that being a writer isn’t “practical”.

But they also include physicist Lisa Randall, author of Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs, and several other hyper-intellectuals.

Commenting on claims made by some that a recent glitch at the Oscars meant that there were visible “cracks” in the simulation, she said:

“At this point, we cannot prove that we do or don’t live in a simulation. More to the point, there is no reason to believe that we do. However, we can pretty much be sure that people will do amazing things and they will also mess up in spectacular ways.”

In contrast, a hero of mine, Elon Musk, claimed publicly that “the odds that we’re in base reality is one in billions.”

Another really smart dude, David Chalmers, professor of philosophy at New York University, said that we’re not going to get proof that we’re not in a simulation, because any evidence that we get could be simulated. He’s also said:

“If it turns out we really are living in a version of “The Matrix” [his reference, not mine], though — so what? Maybe we’re in a simulation, maybe we’re not, but if we are, hey, it’s not so bad.”

Some have said that it’s also a lot of hubris to think that WE would be what ended up being simulated, but Max Tegmark (a professor at MIT) has some words of wisdom for us in this case:

“My advice is to go out and do really interesting things, so the simulators don’t shut you down.”

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Let’s follow the evidence!

THE EVIDENCE OF SIMULATION

As David Chalmers observed, we’re never going to get “evidence” that we’re living in a simulation, because any evidence that we could possibly obtain might just have been simulated.

But we can look for clues. Glitches in the program, if you will.

Also, we can try and figure out if the structure of our perceived reality could even allow for such a state of affairs to exist.

The first step in all of this, of course, is to suspend your certainty about what’s really going on here.

I have no first-hand, empirical claim to absolute truth, and neither do you.

So where can we look for evidence that we may be living in a computer simulation?

Well, my first choice when it comes to evidence of living in a simulation would be the mathematical nature of our universe itself. It’s broken up into pieces (subatomic particles) like pixels in a video game. The laws of physics are computable and they have definite parameters. That means that they can be simulated.

The Simulation Argument also accounts for a lot of strange stuff related to quantum mechanics, such as the measurement problem, which deals with the fact that things only become defined when they are being observed.

Maybe you DO need a conscious observer, like a conscious player of a video game, in order to resolve this measurement problem. This strikes me as the second-greatest “evidence” that we may be living in a computer simulation.

The possibility still exists, too, for near-incontrovertible evidence to emerge that we are living in a simulated world. That is, if we were to go on to create our OWN simulations, we could be fairly certain that we were not in the base reality.

Nick Bostrom states in his paper that:

“If we do go on to create our own ancestor-simulations, this would be strong evidence against (1) and (2), and we would therefore have to conclude that we live in a simulation. Moreover, we would have to suspect that the posthumans running our simulation are themselves simulated beings; and their creators, in turn, may also be simulated beings. Creating simulations would be evidence that we might live in one.”

Beyond all this, there may be one final piece of evidence which could tell us conclusively whether or not we are living in a computer simulation: The moment of our own eventual death.

The moment of death may be the moment of truth. Do we see ones and zeroes? The face of a loving and expectant god? Impenetrable darkness?

Or do we apprehend nothing at all, questions left unanswered, because we have ceased to exist and to be conscious of anything? Maybe Epicurus accurately described the nature of death in this classic statement:

“Why should I fear death? If I am, then death is not. If Death is, then I am not. Why should I fear that which can only exist when I do not?”

Perhaps death will be the moment when the veil is pulled back and all is revealed, or perhaps it will be nothing at all.

CAN WE SIMULATE GOD?

One of the things I find fascinating to contemplate is the relationship between the Simulation Argument and ideas of God.

As a radical skeptic in the same tradition as Diogenes and Montaigne, I hold no personal illusions about a kind and loving God who is waiting for my return to His kingdom.

But I have to admit that I like that idea. Part of me wants it to be true.

And it could be true, even if we’re living in a simulation. The base reality would have to have emerged inexplicably from nothingness at some point, leaving open the possibility that it was created by some kind of omnipotent being.

Furthermore, it’s interesting to consider the similarities between a hypothetical “director” of a simulated universe and a deity.

In fact, most all of the classical questions we ask about a hypothetical God can be asked about a hypothetical simulation-director:

“Why did the director of our world decide to include evil and suffering? (Can they change these settings in the preferences?)”

“What does the director want from us? Is there a specific way that he or she wants us to be living our simulated lives? Or is it purely for his or her own entertainment?”

“Where did the original, non-simulated world come from?”

Could we, somehow, maybe by virtue of our acts here on earth “graduate” to a higher level of the simulation? Someplace “better”?

Or, conversely, could we be punished for our cruelty and waste here on this level of the simulation and be sent to a much worse place for our next “generation”?

How should we live in order to prevent that from happening?

In our universe, we create simulated worlds all the time. Neil deGrasse Tyson has said, “We don’t think of ourselves as deities when we program Mario, even though we have the power over how high Mario jumps.” There’s no reason for Mario to believe that we’re perfectly omnipotent, even though we control everything that he does.

Basically, anyone who created the simulation we may or may not be living in would be akin to a god, at least to us. Maybe it’s some kid in the next universe up, as Chuck Klosterman postulated, but it really could be anyone.

How should we live in light of these considerations, especially given that we can never KNOW if we are living in a computer simulation? It’s to this question that we now turn.

HOW SHOULD WE LIVE IN A SIMULATION?

Ah, now we get to the good stuff. If we really are digital beings living inside a simulation, or if there’s even a remote possibility of that being true, how should we live?

I’ll give the first word to Chuck Klosterman:

“In fact, I’d say the first principle to adopt in this scenario would be the same as the one we use in regular life – don’t get terminated. Stay alive. But beyond that?”

Point well taken.

What Bostrom says, and what looks like the right idea at first glance, is that because we have no reason to believe that either of these possibilities is more likely than the other, the Simulation Argument provides no real reason to change the way we live our lives.

But I disagree, and here’s why…

First, the technical objection from Robin Hanson, a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute:

“In general, your decisions should be based on a weighted average over the different possible worlds you might live in. If you assign a non-zero subjective probability to the possibility that your descendants will create sophisticated simulations which include people (real or simulated) like us, ignorant of their status, then you should assign a non-zero subjective probability to the possibility that you now live in such a simulation. So to the extent that there are consequences of your actions which are different in a simulated world, and you care about these consequences, a non-zero probability of simulation should influence your decisions.”

To put it more simply, Hanson is saying that if you think there is any chance we are living in a simulation, and if you would behave differently in a simulated world for whatever reason, you should probably behave somewhat differently than you otherwise would, given your belief that we may be living in a simulation.

Here are what I would consider the “rules” for living in a simulation:

1) Don’t get terminated. Unless you’re aiming to experience the evidence firsthand regarding whether or not you live in a simulated universe (though, again, death could easily be inconclusive, as we may just cease to be aware of anything). I, for one, want to see where this hypothetical simulation leads.

2) Spend the rest of your life testing the limits, and, in effect, trying to figure out what you “can’t” do. For this to work, assume there is no “can’t”. What is your body capable of? Can you make one person’s life demonstrably better? Can you save an endangered species? Can you become CEO? Can you become world champion? Can you get her to like you? What are the thoughts you can’t have? Are there aspects of this simulation that its creator never considered? What’s beyond the stars?

3) Look for ways to “break” the simulation. A simulated world is a theoretically “solvable” world, and maybe you can crack the code. Maybe, to save computing power, the stars only light up when you’re looking at them. Or buildings turn into ones and zeros once you leave a particular city.

4) Assuming you don’t want the simulation to be turned off, you should do everything in your power to keep the director interested in maintaining the simulation. Go out and do wild things; make a name for yourself; create something epic; become larger than life. Be part of history, or better yet, MAKE history. Cause dramatic shit to happen. At least, that’s what you would do if you assumed the director had a human-like interest in the entertainment or intrigue value of their simulations.

5) Find out what kind of behavior is rewarded in this simulation, and then live your life that way. If you find Erich Fromm’s idea appealing that love is the only rational answer to the problem of human existence, then maybe you should find a way to bring more of that into the world.

In the end, learning that you’re not real doesn’t feel any different from the way you felt before. Even if you’re not “alive”, life goes on, says Klosterman.

Let’s tie this all together and bring it back to “base reality”…

CONCLUSION

“Do not go gentle into that good night. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.”

— Dylan Thomas

An overarching theme of this essay is that when you get right down to it, we humans can’t be sure about even the most fundamental “facts” of existence that we take for granted.

Yet, when you survey the history of human thought (and especially listen to how people talk today), you are struck by the fact that everybody seems so SURE of themselves.

The fact is that it’s impossible to have satisfactory knowledge of anything without knowing all things — and that’s just not going to happen.

I’ve laid out the case for why we might be living in a simulation, and I’ve given some possible avenues of exploration with respect to how we might lead our lives in the face of this possibility.

But we each need to step out in front of the unknown for ourselves. There may be a darkness coming for you that you can’t escape, but there may also be a benevolent “director” waiting to welcome you home.

Nobody knows.

Existential courage then becomes the highest virtue.

We then have a reason to hear each other out, and to doubt our own certainties. We also have innumerable reasons to stop hiding, and to aim to live our best lives. Not fearing disaster, nor taking refuge in sentimentality, but rather engaging meaningfully with the world, for as long as this privilege is to be ours.

The Simulation Argument, then, serves as an empowering thought experiment and a call for radical humility, healthy skepticism, and above all, infectious joy.

Because if ours is a simulated universe, there is a good chance that it will someday end. How will this knowledge change your life?

All the best,

Matt Karamazov