#this has 19 frames. thank you espn
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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight
From sea to shining sea (via purple mountains majesty), today’s primary elections have it all. To have a prayer in November, Alaska Democrats may have to nominate … candidates who are not Democrats. In Florida, three campaigns for Congress have devolved into backbiting and criminal accusations. And in deep-red Wyoming, today’s primary will essentially decide the state’s next U.S. senator. Here’s everything you need to know.
Alaska
In 2018, Republican Rep. Don Young — the longest-serving member of Congress — won reelection by less than 7 percentage points. Notably, his opponent in that race, businesswoman Alyse Galvin, wasn’t even technically a Democrat. She was an independent who ran for and won the Democratic nomination.
Two years later, Democrats are trying to double their luck with the same trick: Galvin is running again for U.S. House, and independent Al Gross is the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Gross, a surgeon and fisherman with a bear of an introductory ad, enjoys the endorsement of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and has raised $5.2 million. Of course, both Galvin and Gross will still face uphill general election campaigns in this red state, but Alaska has a strong independent streak, so Young and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan can’t take anything for granted.
Florida
Fresh off a victory in the 2018 election, Republican Rep. Ross Spano of Florida’s 15th Congressional District was riding high — until he was faced with the possibility he violated campaign finance law. In a December 2018 filing with the Federal Election Commission, Spano disclosed that he borrowed $180,000 from two friends and then loaned $167,000 to his own campaign. Since individuals were not allowed to give a candidate more than $2,700 per election in 2018, this could be seen as laundering campaign contributions. The House Ethics Committee launched an investigation, and in November 2019 we learned that the Justice Department had opened a criminal inquiry.
Unsurprisingly, Spano is now facing stiff reelection challenges from both parties. In the Republican primary, Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin has hammered Spano as a “criminal” in ads; Spano insists he didn’t know his actions were illegal and is framing himself as a victim of a partisan witch hunt. For his part, Spano has tried to paint Franklin as insufficiently loyal to President Trump — something that has become par for the course in GOP primaries. Both candidates have also accused the other of not being tough enough on illegal immigration.
While Spano has the support of the party establishment, including most of the Republicans serving Florida in Congress, a few high-profile local conservatives have endorsed Franklin. As of July 29, Spano had outspent Franklin, $824,000 to $483,000, and the incumbent’s allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth also invested more than $270,000. But an upset may nonetheless be brewing: Last week, St. Pete Polls found the two men locked in a virtual tie.
Whoever wins will face either investigative journalist Alan Cohn or state Rep. Adam Hattersley, who are squaring off in an evenly matched Democratic primary of their own. As of July 29, Cohn had spent more than Hattersley ($459,000 to $406,600), but Hattersley had more cash on hand for the final three weeks ($236,000 to $130,000). Although the two don’t differ much on policy, Cohn has dinged Hattersley for being too moderate (he has some endorsements from moderate groups and didn’t register as a Democrat until 2018). Hattersley, though, has appropriated that argument to claim he’s the more electable candidate — which might be persuasive given that Trump carried this central Florida district by 10 points in 2016.
Two other Republican primaries in Florida are also on our radar because they’ll likely determine future members of Congress due to the GOP lean of the seats. First, the 19th Congressional District in southwest Florida is open following the retirement of Republican Rep. Francis Rooney, and there are four candidates in serious contention: businessman Casey Askar, state Rep. Byron Donalds, state House Majority Leader Dane Eagle and physician William Figlesthaler.
One of Figlesthaler’s ads aptly describes the contest as “the race to support President Trump,” and all the candidates are fighting for pole position. Figlesthaler says he’ll back Trump’s “America First agenda,” while Eagle argues his experience as a GOP leader makes him the best choice to stand with Trump and “fight for America.” Donalds emphasizes that he’s a “Trump-supporting, gun-owning, liberty-loving, pro-life, politically incorrect Black man.” And Askar proclaims that he’ll “always have the president’s back” in Trump’s battle against the media, bureaucrats and the “radical socialists.”
And as the race has heated up, things have gotten nasty. In one ad, Askar stresses that when he was 18, he signed up for the Marines, whereas Donalds was arrested for drug possession at 19 and Eagle got a DUI at 31. He’s also argued that Donalds lied to get a state job and opposed Trump in the past, attacks that got a “Mostly False” rating from PolitiFact. But Askar’s military service and educational background have been called into question, providing plenty of ammunition for his opponents. And outside groups have also dinged Askar for past contributions to Mitt Romney. They’ve also criticized Figlesthaler for giving money to former Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson (who lost in 2018) and not donating to Trump in the 2016 presidential race.
However, because Askar and Figlesthaler are largely self-funding their campaigns, they’ve dramatically outspent Donalds and Eagle. Askar has raised about $3.7 million (with $3 million from personal loans), while Figlesthaler has brought in a little over $2.5 million ($1.9 million self-funded). Conversely, Donalds has collected roughly $1.2 million and Eagle just about $741,000. However, Donalds has far and away the most outside help thanks to his endorsement from the Club for Growth. The group’s campaign arm has spent about $1.4 million boosting Donalds and another $1.1 million hitting the other three candidates (mainly Askar). And Conservative Outsider PAC, another Donalds ally, has also spent $459,000 attacking Eagle.
As the campaign draws to a close, though, it looks like anyone’s race. An early August survey from St. Pete Polls found the four candidates separated by just 6 points, with Donalds attracting 22 percent support, Figlesthaler 21 percent, Eagle 20 percent and Askar 16 percent.
Meanwhile, the 3rd Congressional District in north Florida also has a busy primary to replace retiring Republican Rep. Ted Yoho. The contest lacks a front-runner, but the most prominent contenders appear to be former Yoho staffer Kat Cammack, businessman Judson Sapp and physician James St. George.
The principal drama in the race has centered on Cammack, who has gained notoriety for running fowl-themed ads in which she calls her opponents and D.C. Republicans too “chicken” to stand up for conservative values. She’s played up her connections to Yoho, too, but those ties have recently come under scrutiny. In late June, Yoho’s son claimed Cammack had been fired as his father’s chief of staff and expressed frustration that Cammack made it sound like the congressman backed her. Following his son’s statement, Rep. Yoho stated that Cammack had been demoted to deputy chief of staff and reassigned to the district office in 2013 “for reasons not to be disclosed,” and later reiterated that he wasn’t endorsing anyone.
As for St. George and Sapp, they have also touted their conservative credentials, support for Trump and opposition to the political left. They’ve also brought more financial resources to the race than Cammack. As of July 29, St. George had raised about $922,000 ($600,000 from his own pocket) while Sapp, who won 24 percent in the 2018 primary against Yoho, had collected $770,000 ($500,000 self-funded). By comparison, Cammack had gathered about $492,000 in contributions with very little self-funding. But Cammack has benefited from the only significant outside spending in the race: $300,000 by the Sen. Rand Paul-aligned Protect Freedom PAC. (Paul has endorsed Cammack.)
And the only recent poll we have of the race suggests Cammack might come out on top with a plurality of the vote. Earlier this month, Meer Research found Cammack garnering 25 percent, Sapp 15 percent and St. George 13 percent. However, 20 percent were still undecided and seven other candidates also attracted support. Cammack doesn’t have an overwhelming lead, so it’s entirely possible one of the other contenders might still best her today.
Wyoming
With the retirement of Republican Sen. Mike Enzi, the GOP primary for Wyoming’s Senate seat is also in the cards, and the winner of this election is essentially guaranteed to become the state’s next senator, as Wyoming is arguably the most Republican state in the nation. Admittedly, there’s not much drama here as former Rep. Cynthia Lummis is a pretty clear front-runner despite the fact that there are 10 candidates on the GOP primary ballot.
But we mention this race because Lummis’s likely election could be meaningful for Republican gender diversity in the Senate. At present, just nine of the 26 women in the Senate are Republicans. Six of them are up for election this November, with four in real danger of defeat.1 So if things go poorly for the GOP, Lummis could be important to shoring up gender representation within the party’s caucus.
Things are busiest in Florida today, but there are intriguing reasons to watch what happens in Alaska and Wyoming, too. There aren’t many primary or runoff contests left in 2020, so enjoy primary season while it lasts.
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The NBA’s HORSE competitors, ranked by internet quality
Nobody’s was great!
NBA and WNBA players, along with ESPN, tried really hard to give us some new sports to talk about while the world remains in quarantine due to the spread of Covid-19. They really did. But a pre-recorded game of HORSE was really, really tough to watch.
HORSE in general isn’t too exciting. To make matters worse, the quality of the broadcast was horrendous. The videos lagged due to internet cutouts and shook because of the wind on the outdoor courts. Of course, that’s to be expected as nobody was prepared for a situation like this. It’s nobody’s fault.
But hell, it was funny.
Here are the eight HORSE competitors, ranked by quality of internet.
8. Trae Young
Young filmed himself with a potato. There’s no other way to describe it. The camera lagged and the wind rattled in each frame. Was he on a sidekick 3? I have no idea.
Please get better internet, Trae.
.@1MrBigShot beats @TheTraeYoung in the first round of the NBA HORSE Challenge after Trae initially built a 3-0 lead. pic.twitter.com/3CJQgpbBnq
— ESPN (@espn) April 12, 2020
Did I mention he also blew a 3-0 letter lead?
trae young blows 3-0 lead in horse tournament, loses to chauncey billups in opening round
(very serious tweet) pic.twitter.com/kBIIfTtnt7
— SB Nation (@SBNation) April 12, 2020
Twitter was relentless:
Trae young when he hits a deep 3 in HORSE pic.twitter.com/inUZCxpIc2
— fucksallad (@fucksallad) April 12, 2020
Trae Young being filmed rn like: pic.twitter.com/Usqb3ZyxW0
— Samuel Shin (@shinsanityyyy) April 12, 2020
This is what Trae Young’s camera man is using pic.twitter.com/t1mvrUkiMA
— Charles Dickey (@stickydickey1) April 12, 2020
Nobody:
Trae Young’s camera: pic.twitter.com/rQ96E5nU6v
— Josh (@PrimeBDN) April 12, 2020
7. Tamika Catchings
Catchings was shooting out in the wind on a cold Indiana day, so that camera was WHIPPING. She propped it up on a ladder, and it was not great.
Tamika Catchings looks back at growing up with Kobe Bryant in Italy and how their paths had crossed since. @espnW pic.twitter.com/6Nf3CyhAbX
— ESPN (@espn) April 13, 2020
6. Chauncey Billups
Lag city! Billups had the benefit of being the better half against Young at least.
NBA HORSE Challenge @1MrBigShot completes his opening-round comeback in the NBA Horse Challenge on ESPN! pic.twitter.com/A3JRRVIo1l
— NBA (@NBA) April 12, 2020
5. Paul Pierce
Pierce’s stream wasn’t anything special, but he didn’t come out with a camcorder or like binoculars, and he didn’t make a dad joke? So that’s a win. We’ll give him fifth.
the best part of HORSE has been watching the kid behind paul pierce spin to the point of stumbling pic.twitter.com/2nje7tVu1f
— Ashley Young (@young_ashleye) April 13, 2020
4. Chris Paul
Paul had his son, Chris Jr., out to do interviews and even shared an AirPod with him. That’s high-tech for dads! He had two cameras working, too.
NBA HORSE Challenge
Clever shot by @CP3 to stay afloat in Round 1!
NBA Horse Challenge presented by State Farm pic.twitter.com/6XqNDMYYnE
— NBA (@NBA) April 13, 2020
3. Zach LaVine
LaVine had a steady stream, and a partner to record closer to the rim to prove he touched the rim on trick shots. It was pretty smooth!
NBA HORSE Challenge
"Tap the backboard with the left... reverse on the right!"@ZachLaVine leads @paulpierce34 in Round 1 of the NBA Horse Challenge presented by State Farm! pic.twitter.com/shiBmGyunK
— NBA (@NBA) April 13, 2020
2. Allie Quigley
Quigley had her wife and fellow All-Star Chicago Sky guard, Courtney Vandersloot, shooting on a second camera, to give another angle. Genius. Excellent marital and basketball chemistry.
We thank you, Sloot.
NBA HORSE Challenge @alliequigley knocks down the Pistol Pete Maravich homage‼️
She leads @CP3 H-O to H in Round 1 of the NBA Horse Challenge presented by State Farm on ESPN. pic.twitter.com/TDnnPFqTRN
— NBA (@NBA) April 13, 2020
1. Mike Conley
Conley cheated, I swear. He was the only player to shoot INDOORS! What a ridiculous advantage both in the shooting competition, and internet competition.
NBA HORSE Challenge @MCONLEY10 closes out his Round 1 victory!
NBA Horse Challenge presented by State Farm on ESPN pic.twitter.com/xuCROspm2b
— NBA (@NBA) April 13, 2020
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RIVALRY WEEK! degenerate’s guide to TV watch ‘em ups
It’s rivalry week as I’m sure you know. Especially since a bunch of games have already happened. Boy, what finishes, huh? Expect more of the same today!
Of course I have no idea what happened on Thursday or Friday. I’m writing this on Wednesday night. It’s not like my insightful nature exists anyway.
You know about the lines and the schedules and the whatnot, I trust. If you don’t it doesn’t really matter at all. There’s football a-playin’ and gamblin’ afoot. Join us!
Saturday, November 24
Matchup Time (ET) TV/Mobile
11 Florida at Florida State 12:00pm ABC
FSU needs to win here to become bowl eligible. Florida can just keep losing and never drop in the rankings. The line is currently up to UF -6.5 and that seems like a decent buy given how bad FSU has been this year but keep in mind that Florida is very likely to not show up at any given moment.
Georgia Tech at 5 Georgia 12:00pm SECN
The first leg of my dream scenario for this weekend involves Georgia Tech winning this game. I am a curse, you should know. Bulldogs by 50.
Marshall at FIU 12:00pm Facebook
A vocal segment of Miami fans and alums wanted Butch Davis to return to The U a couple of years ago. I bet that idea would poll higher among Miami fans now.
4 Michigan at 10 Ohio State 12:00pm FOX
There are so many different potential bad outcomes for this game that I don’t know how to root in it.
Navy at Tulane 12:00pm ESPNU
This is a neat little “rivalry” in that Midshipmen are fighting Green Waves. Tulane has been very up and down, fittingly so, this season but Navy has just been down. Put a couple of bucks on -7 for me.
Purdue at Indiana 12:00pm ESPN2
I think this is the best these two teams have been at the same time since the 80s. The fact that either of these teams are relatively good within the frame of their respective program histories is wildly pathetic.
20 Syracuse at 20 Boston College 12:00pm ESPN
They’re both ranked 20? That’s one thing to be interested in.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington, TX) 12:00pm FS1
The world’s handsomest football coach is sort of in danger of being fired but I think his buyout is significantly lower if they wait a year and what else is Texas Tech going to do, win? Mike Leach ain’t coming back any time soon.
WKU at LA Tech 12:00pm CBSSN
Louisville fell apart this year and so did Western Kentucky. FSU isn’t looking so hot, either. The whole Bobby Petrino coaching tree rotted and died in 2018. The Bulldogs are favored by 11 over the Hilltoppers in this classic rivalry game with a very rich history.
NC State at North Carolina 12:20pm Raycom Sports
It’s got to eat at Duke homers a little bit to know that NC State gets the rivalry week game against UNC. Not just because it’s an easy win this year, I mean every year. It’s little things that I’m thankful for this year.
Wake Forest at Duke 12:30pm RSN/ESPN3
David Cutcliffe has lead Duke into a golden era for football. Right now. This is the golden era for Duke football. This might be the most talented Duke team ever. And they didn’t win the Coastal division in one of the worst years ever for a power 5 conference.
Old Dominion at Rice 1:00pm ESPN+
It doesn’t get much worse than this. Rice has one of the oldest football programs in the country, plays in Texas, and for rivalry week they are playing a 5-year old program from Virginia. There are three other Texas schools in Rice’s division in C-USA. To top it off they are a 7.5-point dog at home.
Georgia Southern at Georgia State 2:00pm ESPN+
This is an actual rivalry, carried over from 1-AA days, but the teams look the same and play similar styles and are both GSU and I will never remember which one is which. You won’t either.
New Mexico State at Liberty 2:00pm ESPN3
New Mexico State is so bad at football that they’re an 8-point underdog to Liberty. Why field a team at that point?
Troy at Appalachian State 2:30pm ESPN+
Finally an interesting off-brand game and of course it’s on ESPN+. If we all agree to never learn what that is these types of games will move back to ESPN2.
Wyoming at New Mexico 2:30pm ATTSN
I like Wyoming’s home browns a little better but this is still a cool uniform matchup. Like a generic sports game for the background in a TV show or a commercial.
Louisiana at ULM 3:00pm ESPN+
I wonder if dropping Lafayette from their branding has actually helped the directional school now simply billed as “Louisiana” in any appreciable way? Are they just trying to catch recruits too stupid to know they aren’t signing with LSU?
Southern Miss at UTEP 3:00pm ESPN+
Another one for ESPN+. What a curse.
Stanford at UCLA 3:00pm Pac-12N
If UCLA wins this game to finish with back-to-back wins over USC and Stanford this season will be a huge success for the Bruins, even at 4-8. Related: I always laugh a little when talking heads say things about the UCLA football team and something is happening in Westwood. The football team plays in Pasadena.
UAB at Middle Tennessee 3:00pm ESPN3
UAB is gunning for a 10-win season just a couple of years removed from not having a program. That’s pretty cool. MTSU is also a decent team this year. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar game of the week, this might be it. The line has moved in UAB’s favor but oddsmakers still have it pretty close.
Arizona State at Arizona 3:30pm FS1
I’m not surprised that Arizona is playing for bowl eligibility here but I am still amazed that Herm Edwards got ASU to 6 wins. Kevin Sumlin coaching Khalil Tate to be a pocket passer has been the most frustrating thing in the CFB world this season.
Auburn at 1 Alabama 3:30pm CBS
Kick Six will never get old. Sorry, Cabbage. If it’s any consolation, the line is 24 and might not be high enough. If you’re a draft aficionado this game should be a catalog of all Jarrett Stidham’s limitations as a quarterback. But maybe not. Maybe Gus Malzahn has been coaching all year knowing that his team wasn’t quite championship level so he decided to hold back all of his formerly great gameplanning skills to unleash hell in the Iron Bowl. If that seems far-fetched to you then I take it you have no idea what the Iron Bowl actually means in the state of Alabama. I’m old enough to still be annoyed that they don’t play in Birmingham anymore.
Illinois at 19 Northwestern 3:30pm BTN
If I recall correctly, Lovie Smith has an astronomical buyout number that will keep him at UIU for at least another year. On the plus side for the Illinois program they haven’t been noticeably worse under his stewardship than they have been under other coaches, at least in the long run. Season to season they still haven’t made a bowl game, though, and he gets paid pretty well for leading a team that’s among the worst power 5 teams every year. Northwestern is the B1G equivalent of Duke and, hey, this is their most talented team in years if not ever. They won’t get much out of that distinction but they are 17-point favorites against (bitter?) rivals Illinois. Take the Cats in this one.
Maryland at 12 Penn State 3:30pm ABC
If the TBL comments section were properly valued by society this would be known as the Byrd Bowl. Why is this conference so packed full of loathsome athletic departments?
Minnesota at Wisconsin 3:30pm ESPN2
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 714 yards and 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks. Minnesota doesn’t play defense. That -10.5 is looking pretty good to me.
24 Pitt at Miami (FL) 3:30pm ESPN
Miami owes Pitt some serious payback for last year but Miami is also disintegrating as a team. Actively. This is separate from the earlier disintegration that is already completed. Jeff Thomas left the program, no 2019 commits are particularly strong, and every single junior is probably considering leaving early. The only hope for next year is if Manny Diaz stays on for another year as DC. I’m not very hopeful. The Canes are favored by 4.5, which seems like a mistake. Maybe N’Kosi Perry is actually really good and can overcome the loss of the team’s top two WRs and all of their TEs?
SMU at Tulsa 3:30pm CBSSN
All of the money is on SMU and the under. Not great margins in this one.
Temple at UConn 3:30pm ESPNU
UConn’s post-Big East football existence is underrated as one of this decade’s best comedy acts.
Arkansas State at Texas State 4:00pm ESPN3
I have no interest in this one. My brand is ruined.
Rutgers at Michigan State 4:00pm FOX
Michigan State’s true rival is Rutgers. In case that comes up later.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt 4:00pm SECN
A battle of 5-6 teams with Vanderbilt a slight favorite. Is it too early to talk about Tennessee buying out the entire football program with no planned replacement?
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic 6:00pm Stadium
The Kiffins need a win to go bowling and they’re favored by 17.5 but it would be really funny for him to lose and go back to being an OC where he belongs.
Colorado at California 7:00pm Pac-12N
I know they’ve fallen apart this year but Colorado firing their head coach still caught me off guard. He’s been overall pretty good for them, I thought? Oh, well, maybe they have somebody better ready to take things over.
Kansas State at 25 Iowa State 7:00pm FS1
Matt Campbell’s future is already clear: he’ll go to the NFL, have some better-than-expected early results, then settle into a dull forgettable career. Better than what David Montgomery will get from the league.
15 Kentucky at Louisville 7:00pm ESPN2
Louisville’s disaster of a season finally comes to a close. Kentucky needs to run up the score now, there’s no telling when things will be like this again.
North Texas at UTSA 7:00pm ESPN+
North Texas has been one of this year’s great off-the-map success stories. Decent chance they get to 10 wins after the bowls. I think that would be their second 10-win season ever.
San Jose State at Fresno State 7:00pm ESPNU
The o/u is 49.5 which seems like easy money. Fresno should get over 50 if they were ever worth a top 25 vote.
South Carolina at 2 Clemson 7:00pm ESPN
I really thought South Carolina was turning a corner back in September. I was wrong. Look for 5+ TD passes from Trevor Lawrence.
7 LSU at 22 Texas A&M 7:30pm SECN
aTm wins. Sharpie.
3 Notre Dame at USC 8:00pm ABC
I like the idea of coaching and upset of the #3 team in the country to gain bowl eligibility and then getting fired before the bowl game. Please, Clay Helton, give us this much.
Oklahoma State at TCU 8:00pm FOX
Great primetime matchup between a 5-6 team and a 6-5 team.
Nevada at UNLV 9:30pm CBSSN
Nevada is OK. UNLV is bad. This is Mountain West football!
BYU at 17 Utah 10:00pm FS1
This is not Mountain West football but it should be.
21 Utah State at 23 Boise State 10:15pm ESPN
This is a legitimately good game on the blue turf and it will last until 2am Eastern. This is what degenerate football is all about but these are two ranked teams. Our time is now, readers.
Hawaii at San Diego State 10:30pm ESPNU
This is way more degenerate than USU-Boise. It has the added advantages of being a better uniform matchup and you don’t have to worry about East Coasters complaining because they won’t even know this game is on.
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The MLB draft concludes Wednesday, an exciting and important time for every organization. It’s also the annual reminder of how difficult it is to project high school and college players into the future. You know what else is difficult? Projecting players even closer to the majors into the future. Baseball is hard, with so many unknown variables.
From mock drafts to rankings, check out ESPN’s coverage of the 2018 MLB draft.
Armed with a devastating splitter and major league poise, Auburn’s ace is ready to live up to the hype now that the Detroit Tigers made him the first overall pick.
Between minor leaguers with major league bloodlines and future stars who have been involved in major trades, there are plenty of familiar names on this year’s list. Where did your team’s top young players land?
2 Related
This is a list of 10 players, all premium prospects coming up through the minors. I’ve chosen them more or less at random because their stat lines in 2018 jump out for various reasons. Five of them have negative WAR, one is at 0.0 and another is barely above replacement-level at 0.1 WAR. It’s still too early to call them busts — you never know in baseball — and some of them have had significant major league success at some point.
But they’re all at some type of crossroads in their careers. Let’s take a look.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Stats: 3-6, 7.53 ERA, 55 IP, 56 H, 37 BB, 30 SO, 8 HR, minus-1.1 WAR
Age: 23.327
Peak prospect status: No. 3 (pre-2016) by Keith Law, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus
Giolito was regarded as one of the best high school right-handers scouts had ever seen when he regularly hit 99 mph during his senior season at Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, falling to the Nationals with the 16th pick in 2012 only because he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. He made one pro appearance and then needed Tommy John surgery. He rebounded from that to become one of the top pitching prospects in the minors, but after a lackluster debut in 2016, the Nationals shipped him to the White Sox in the Adam Eaton trade.
White Sox fans may remember Scott Ruffcorn. It pains me to say this, but Giolito reminds me a little of him. Ruffcorn was a first-round pick in 1991 (not as highly regarded as Giolito) and dominated in the minors. For whatever reason, he couldn’t throw strikes in the majors — he had 70 walks in 70⅓ career innings. Giolito is averaging 6.1 walks per nine inning and he’s hit 10 batters, with more walks than strikeouts. We never see that kind of ratio anymore. We can analyze all the metrics a hundred ways, but I wonder if, like Ruffcorn, he simply lacks confidence at the major league level.
If you want to get into the numbers, he has especially struggled against lefties (.958 OPS), because his curveball and changeup haven’t developed into effective out pitches, and because of that he seems timid with the fastball in the zone. The only pitch really working for him is his slider. He has only 22 career starts, so it’s too early to give up on him as a starter for a rebuilding team like the White Sox, and maybe he needs to start showing some results.
Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
Stats: .156/.183/.200, 3 BB, 28 SO, 0 HR, minus-0.2 WAR
Age: 24.170
Peak prospect status: Consensus No. 1 (pre-2014)
Buxton has shown flashes of brilliance — September 2016 when he hit nine home runs and the second half of 2017 when he hit .300/.347/.546 — but between those flashes have been long droughts of empty results at the plate. I talked to Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey in spring training and one notable thing he said is that Buxton wants so badly to be a great player and can put too much pressure on himself.
Buxton is on the disabled list with a broken big toe, but before the injury he was back into some bad habits at the plate, with a 39 percent chase rate. He was at 32.4 percent in the second half last year — still high, but at least a figure he could still do some damage on. Buxton now has over 1,000 big league plate appearances and owns a .285 career OBP. He doesn’t have to be great at the plate — he was worth 5.2 WAR last year even with a .314 OBP thanks to his brilliant defense — but he does need to be more consistent.
Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins
Stats: .212/.282/.449, 12 BB, 52 SO, 7 HR, minus-0.1 WAR
Age: 25.026
Peak prospect status: No. 4 (pre-2014) by MLB.com
It’s easy to see why the Twins have disappointed when two of their expected cornerstone players haven’t done the job. Sano’s strikeout rate has gone from extreme to scary. He was at 35-36 percent his first three seasons, but he is now at 40 percent — and that’s come with a deteriorating chase rate and thus a career-low walk rate (he was at 15.8 percent as a rookie but is at 9.2 percent this year). Sano has once again missed some time, but 52 strikeouts in 29 games translates to a mind-numbing 269 over 150 games. Somewhere, Joe Sewell is crying.
Sano was a 2.5-WAR player a season ago in just 114 games, so he isn’t a lost cause, but the regression in plate discipline is a big concern. His conditioning is another issue, and while he played an OK third base last season (minus-6 defensive runs saved), if he moves to first that puts even more pressure on the bat. Sano looked like a 45-homer slugger when he was so impressive as a rookie. Will he ever get there?
Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stats: 1-1, 4.35 ERA, 31 IP, 27 H, 16 BB, 40 SO, 2 HR, 0.2 WAR
Age: 24.287
Peak prospect status: No. 6 (pre-2016) by Keith Law
Glasnow was always a wild card as a prospect given the issues of keeping his 6-foot-8 frame in consistent mechanics. As a starter in Triple-A, he dominated over parts of three seasons: 1.95 ERA, 321 K’s in 245 innings, allowing just 155 hits. He did walk 115 batters and that erratic command hurt him at the major league level in 2017, when he posted a 7.69 ERA in 13 starts and 62 innings. Hard to hit in Triple-A, big leaguers hit .319 off him and pounded 13 home runs off him. Ouch.
The Pirates didn’t mess around. They moved him to the bullpen, where the fastball velocity has picked up — averaging 96.3 mph — and he has limited the home runs and kept the walks somewhat in check. The potential rotation trio of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Glasnow didn’t come to fruition, but at least Glasnow has the chance to be a dominant reliever and a potential closer with better control.
Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres
Stats: .173/.235/.293, 6 BB, 30 SO, 2 HR, 0.0 WAR
Age: 25.292
Peak prospect status: No. 18 (pre-2014) by Baseball Prospectus
High school catchers drafted in the first couple of rounds don’t have a glowing history, but Hedges quickly established himself as a strong two-way prospect after solid seasons in Class A in 2012 and 2013. His hitting tumbled at Double-A San Antonio in 2014, however, and the Padres rushed him to the majors in 2015.
Hedges retooled his swing at Triple-A in 2016 to add more power and then hit 18 home runs for the Padres in 2017 — albeit with a .214 average and .262 OBP. He’s never been much of a walker, but now his offensive game is a one-trick pony, kind of a National League version of Mike Zunino. We’ll give him a pass on 2018 as he has just 81 plate appearances and is on the DL with elbow tendinitis. The old cliché goes that catchers often develop late with the bat, so the Padres will have to continue to show more patience.
The Padres have one of the deepest farm systems, but the previous wave of prospects have yet to make a major impact — Hedges, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot (who hasn’t hit after a promising rookie season in 2017), Cory Spangenberg, Dinelson Lamet (Tommy John surgery this spring). Hopefully the next generation will learn to take a few more walks.
Blake Swihart, OF/C, Boston Red Sox
Stats: .157/.232/.176, 5 BB, 15 SO, 0 HR, minus-0.5 WAR
Age: 26.064
Peak prospect: No. 10 (pre-2015) by Keith Law
After a promising debut behind the plate in 2015, Swihart missed much of 2016 and ’17 with injuries, getting just 453 plate appearances over the two seasons. He’s healthy this year but has hardly played (just 56 PAs), and in May his agent asked the Red Sox to trade him. Even though Red Sox catchers Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon have both struggled at the plate, Swihart has caught just two innings.
What’s the future here? There just isn’t an opening for playing time. He’s blocked in the outfield, maybe no longer a catcher in the eyes of Red Sox management, but of use as a bench player. It becomes a dilemma of sorts: Do the Red Sox owe Swihart a chance to play somewhere else, or do they let him waste what could be his prime seasons as the final player on the bench?
Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers
Stats: .231/.303/.410, 18 BB, 33 SO, 3 HR, 0.1 WAR
Age: 25.106
Peak prospect status: Consensus No. 1 (pre-2013)
Profar became the top prospect after excelling in Double-A at 19, hitting for some power (14 home runs), showing good plate discipline (70 walks) and playing a good shortstop. Profar actually received a few plate appearances while still a teenager, although his rookie season in 2013 produced a lackluster .234/.308/.336 line in 85 games.
Then came shoulder surgeries in 2014 and 2015, with him missing one entire season and most of another. It’s impossible to know what that missed development time meant for his career trajectory, but he simply hasn’t hit as once projected. He’s gotten a chance to play this season with Elvis Andrus out, and while he’s shown doubles power (18 of them), his 21.8 percent fly ball rate and mediocre exit velocity average (86.2 mph) mean he’s not going to be a home run guy. His defensive metrics at shortstop also have been very poor (minus-8 DRS). When Andrus returns, Profar may go back to the bench — although given Rougned Odor‘s awfulness, I’d let Profar play second.
Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets
Stats: 2-4, 5.14 ERA, 56 IP, 62 H, 21 BB, 57 SO, 7 HR, minus-0.1 WAR
Age: 28.007
Peak prospect status: No. 5 (pre-2013) by Baseball Prospectus
Wheeler is the oldest guy on this list, but he’s trying to get through his first full season since 2014. He had Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2015 and then was shut down in 2016 with a strained flexor muscle after making just one minor league appearance. He made 17 starts in 2017 with a 5.21 ERA, but he was twice on the DL with arm injuries and shut down in late August with a stress fracture.
So, this one is pretty easy: He’s never been able to stay healthy enough to get the most out of his ability. It’s worth noting that Wheeler’s 2014 season also wasn’t as impressive as it looks on the surface. He posted a 3.54 ERA in 185⅓ innings with 187 strikeouts — all good numbers for his full season. But that was the notorious pitcher’s year, and he did it in a pitcher’s park and the walk rate (3.8 per nine) was a little high. His WAR was just 0.9.
As for 2018, maybe he needs to rethink his approach. He’s thrown his fastball 55.5 percent of the time, but batters are hitting .311/.368/.508 against it. Out of 113 pitchers with at least 50 innings, he’s 13th in percentage of fastballs thrown and 82nd in wOBA allowed.
Or maybe this is a Mets thing: Noah Syndergaard has allowed .454 wOBA on his four-seam fastball (.364/.407/.636).
Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
Stats: .272/.347/.348, 20 BB, 46 SO, 2 HR, 1.4 WAR
Age: 24.134
Peak prospect status: No. 2 (pre-2015) by Baseball Prospectus
Russell is different from the other guys in that he’s proved to be a valuable big leaguer — 11.5 WAR since he came up in 2015, ranking tied for 50th among position players in that span. He’s been an All-Star and a World Series champ and Gold Glove-caliber shortstop (although he hasn’t won one).
So this is mostly about his bat. Coming up through the minors, his bat was raved about more than his defense. He popped 13 home runs as a rookie and 21 in the title year 2016, but the power has evaporated this season (although the average and OBP have gone up). He’s swinging a little less this season, but it’s remarkable how his underlying metrics have basically remained unchanged in his four big league seasons. The one exception is he’s hitting fewer fly balls this year and more line drives (which explains the low home run total and the higher average), although his average launch angle is the same.
Basically, this is probably who he is: an elite defender with a so-so bat, not enough power and not enough contact to significantly improve, so he’ll remain on that next tier of shortstops behind Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and a healthy Corey Seager (no shame in that). He’s under team control through 2021. The defense is important. The Cubs lead the NL in runs scored. Would you trade three years of Russell for three months of Manny Machado?
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Stats: 3-5, 4.63 ERA, 70 IP, 81 H, 17 BB, 68 SO, 13 HR, 1.1 WAR
Age: 27.151
Peak prospect status: No. 10 (pre-2014) by Baseball Prospectus
Gausman is kind of the Addison Russell of pitchers. He’s a quality major leaguer: 4.1 WAR in 2016, 2.0 last year, 1.1 so far this year. Still, it seems like we’re left wanting more. As with Russell, maybe that’s unfair. Gausman will have big games — he tossed nine scoreless innings of two-hit baseball against the A’s — and then follow it up with clunkers (19 runs in 19 innings in his past four starts, which actually includes 6⅓ scoreless frames against the White Sox).
Gausman is a fastball/slider/splitter guy, and when he gets ahead in the count, the splitter is a big wipeout pitch. But batters are hitting .364/.415/.599 against his fastball and he doesn’t throw the slider enough to make it a major weapon. That often turns him into a two-pitch guy, and his primary pitch is too hittable, despite plus velocity.
My first thought: Maybe he just needs to get out of Camden Yards. Well, he has a 3.65 career ERA at home and 4.77 on the road. His home run rates are similar. Like Russell, it seems this is who is: a good player who is going to make a lot of money in his career if he stays healthy. He’s just probably not going to turn into that ace.
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Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen also shade Isaiah Thomas over Celtics tribute
The 2008 Celtics are assembling like The Avengers to defend Paul Pierce.
In a feature by Jackie MacMullan and Chris Forsberg of ESPN that ran on Wednesday, New Orleans Pelicans veteran Tony Allen, who was on that title-winning team with Pierce, shaded Cleveland Cavaliers guard Isaiah Thomas. Thomas was originally supposed to have a video tribute aired by the Celtics on Feb. 11, the same night Pierce would be getting his jersey retired by the team.
“I’m with Pierce, man,” Allen was quoted as saying. “[Thomas] didn’t put in more work than Paul. Anybody disagree? OK. Paul Pierce put in big work, man. Why would they honor [Thomas] on that same day, man?
“Let my man get his jersey retired, man,” added Allen. “Let him embrace that, man. He put a lot of blood, sweat and tears in this organization, man, and capitalized and had some good results. [Pierce] struggled with the team. I remember losing 19 straight with that man. Turned around and won a championship [the next season]. Talk about Paul Pierce, man, don’t mention [Thomas’] name, the guys’ name that don’t stand in the same frame.”
Pierce himself was also quoted in the story and shared a funny shot that Kevin Garnett, another prominent teammate of his in Boston, took at Thomas.
“Everyone understood where I was coming from,” said Pierce. “KG was like, ‘Isaiah who? Hell no, you’re damn right you not sharing your night with him.'”
For what it’s worth, Thomas has since tweeted that he would like to forgo his Feb. 11 tribute video and let all the attention that night be focused on Pierce.
I'd like to thank the Celtics for their gracious offer to play a video tribute on Feb 11th celebrating my 3yrs in Boston. But since it appears this has caused some controversy w/ Paul Pierce's night I'd ask the Celtics instead to focus all of their attention on #34's career.
— Isaiah Thomas (@isaiahthomas) January 17, 2018
While Garnett and Allen seemed to take exception to the thought of Pierce sharing his night with Thomas, yet another former Celtics teammate of theirs questioned why Thomas even deserved a tribute from the C’s at all. Poor IT.
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With Jeff Teague damage, Wolves followers will get all of the Tyus Jones they will deal with
You by no means want for accidents. But when they should occur, you need them to occur in the course of the season and never in April when your group is making the playoff push.
So when it was reported that Minnesota Timberwolves level guard Jeff Teague might be sidelined indefinitely with a sprained left knee, it wasn’t the worst information on the planet for the Wolves.
MRI revealed that Minnesota guard Jeff Teague has a sprained left knee, however there is not any structural harm, league sources inform ESPN. He might be out of lineup for indefinite time frame.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) December 28, 2017
On condition that there is not any structural harm, this explicit damage may truly be thrilling to some Wolves followers, as a result of it means they’re going to get what they have been wanting for a very long time now — Tyus Jones, place to begin guard.
Jones has performed nicely as Minnesota’s backup, however not often logs over 15 minutes per sport, thanks to move coach Tom Thibodeau’s penchant for operating his starters into the bottom relying closely on his starters. The Wolves have been a plus-Three.5 in internet score with Jones on the court docket this season, and he is been notably sizzling of late, taking pictures 55.7 p.c from the sphere and and 51.9 p.c on Three-pointers since Thanksgiving with 2.9 assists, 1.7 steals and simply Zero.6 turnovers per sport.
To not point out that Minnesota followers love them some Tyus Jones.
The love affair with Jones is not unwarranted — he is confirmed that he can fill in admirably for Teague within the beginning lineup whereas taking part in large minutes. When Teague missed 4 video games in late November, Jones averaged 11.Three factors 6.5 assists, four.5 rebounds, four.Zero steals and 1.Zero turnovers in 38.2 minutes per sport, whereas taking pictures 53 p.c from the sphere and 47 p.c Three-pointers.
Teague’s absence will enable the Wolves to get an prolonged take a look at Jones within the beginning unit, which may doubtlessly assist form the way forward for the franchise.
Teague, who has been a strong, however not nice, place to begin guard over the previous seven seasons, is owed $19 million per 12 months by means of 2020, with a participant possibility for his remaining season with the Wolves. If Jones can show able to dealing with the place to begin guard duties, and even seems to be a greater match, Teague may turn out to be an fascinating commerce chip for the Wolves as they give the impression of being to make the bounce from a non-playoff group to a reputable contender over the following few seasons.
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Fantasy hockey - matchups, projections, notes for April 3-nine
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Fantasy hockey - matchups, projections, notes for April 3-nine
You should be cautious of a handful of matters heading into the final 7 days of the year. Even though no NHL workforce is going to run up the white flag in any contest, there are absolutely some groups improved positioned to relieve off the gas pedal as the final 7 days of the year winds down. A prime instance is the Chicago Blackhawks, who are just two wins away from locking down the No. one-general seed in the Western Convention. If the Blackhawks now have property ice clinched, you can wager some essential gamers may get a night time off versus the Anaheim Ducks or Los Angeles Kings to near out the year.
At the other end of the spectrum, the whole Western Convention playoff photo is framed at this stage, with the Kings acquiring to be perfect for the remainder of the campaign in buy to improve which groups make the postseason. Which is an not likely situation, meaning we now know which 8 groups are in the playoffs and which 6 groups are out. It won’t necessarily mean the Winnipeg Jets or Dallas Stars are going to surrender in their remaining video games, but you may well see some various duties or line assignments as coaches consider advantage of the remaining program to make some evaluations for future year. Players who had been pushing by accidents on a workforce sure for the golfing system future 7 days have small incentive to retain pushing by the ache and jeopardizing more hurt.
There are 5 traits of groups that make amazingly prolonged operates in the NHL playoffs, and three groups this year suit the bill.
Teams employed to use higher very first-spherical picks (even No. one general) on goalies. Now? Not so considerably. We look at in with NHL scouts, execs to understand why.
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It’s the opposite circumstance in the Jap Convention, exactly where 5 groups are realistically in the running for the three final playoff places, and another two groups continue to within a wonder run to make it. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins and Ottawa Senators have the Tampa Bay Lightning nipping at their heels in their division, while the pink warm Carolina Hurricanes only have to lengthen their run a single a lot more 7 days to push into postseason competition.
We are now viewing the on-ice impact of the waning days of the common year. On Thursday, Erik Karlsson (a notorious iron gentleman on the ice) sat out, Nikita Kucherov (the best scorer in the NHL) was as well unwell to enjoy and Aleksander Barkov (whose Florida Panthers are out of the playoff photo) was benched thanks to an higher-body injuries. Even though the Lightning absolutely require Kucherov for a postseason push and the Senators have similar desperation to get Karlsson back in the lineup, Barkov has no rationale to push for a comeback this year.
On the flip aspect, the cavalry is returning for some groups, irrespective of whether to make a final push or just get a handful of video games in at the end of the campaign. Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson are the two a probability for Saturday’s game versus the Montreal Canadiens. Stamkos has been down for the rely given that Nov. seventeen and was by no means a certain matter to return this year. Johnson has been ailing given that March nine. Certainly the two would be a large boon to the Lightning’s playoff possibilities for the final 5 video games of the year. Adding a celebrity like Stamkos to Kucherov’s present-day tear could be explosive. Watch the line combinations cautiously on Saturday, as there could be some wild value swings ahead of the final 7 days. Is Kucherov with Stamkos or Johnson? In which does Brayden Stage suit in? What about Ondrej Palat?
Even though it truly is really hard to picture two gamers returning to a workforce with a lot more impact than Stamkos and Johnson, the Pittsburgh Penguins do have a opportunity to leading them. Evgeni Malkin is continue to on the sidelines with a shoulder injuries and Kris Letang is building development in his return from an higher-body injuries. Nevertheless, with the Penguins comfortably in playoff situation and holding 6 details furthermore a game in hand on property-ice advantage in the very first spherical, the two gamers could end up focusing on the postseason as a return to motion. Malkin appears to be a small nearer, but would continue to require a practice or two to get back in motion. Really don’t drop him yet, as the Penguins enjoy three video games in the final four days of the year.
Fantasy forecaster: April 3-nine
We have not a single, but two groups with 5 video games for the final 7 days of the year. Nevertheless, with a fairly chaotic program general, the advantage of this sort of a comprehensive slate is a bit diluted. In addition to the Maple Leafs and Senators enjoying 5 video games, 16 other groups enjoy four video games future 7 days. The remaining twelve NHL groups enjoy three video games.
For those people new to the forecaster chart, listed here are some explanations: “O” (offense) and “D” (protection) matchup ratings are based mostly upon a scale from one (bad matchup) to 10 (outstanding matchup) and are calculated applying a method that evaluates the team’s year-to-date stats, their overall performance in property/road video games relying on exactly where the game is to be performed, as effectively as their opponents’ quantities in those people classes. The “Rankings” column lists the cumulative rating from one-10 of that week’s offensive (“O”) and defensive (“D”) matchups.
Team notes
Ottawa Senators: The Forecaster is calling for very low-scoring affairs in a property-and-property with the Detroit Pink Wings to start out the 7 days, and gives the Senators an general bad rating for offensive probable in the course of future week’s 5-game program. That said, enjoying 5 video games is a distinctive advantage in and of alone. The Senators experienced a reasonably sad offensive demonstrating without having catalyst Erik Karlsson in the lineup on Thursday, generating only 19 photographs versus Alex Stalock. Right before you get overly enthused about the sweet program, make certain Karlsson is back in motion this weekend, or at the very least thanks back for Monday. The Senators offense is significantly less imposing with Karlsson building breakout passes.
If Karlsson is out, Dion Phaneuf gets a should-start out in any structure. Even with the suppressed general output, Phaneuf would be manning the significant minutes the two on and off the electrical power enjoy without having Karlsson all around. Kyle Turris goes from fringe to useful with the added video games. He is been enjoying with Bobby Ryan at even energy and holding down a part on the leading electrical power-enjoy unit with Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman. Turris and Phaneuf are readily available in about a single-third of leagues.
Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs also near with a 5-game 7 days, which include four video games at property — exactly where they boast the best electrical power enjoy in the NHL. Highlighted on that electrical power enjoy of late is unheralded rookie Connor Brown. Misplaced in the sea of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander‘s rookie strategies, Brown has 19 objectives, which include four in his earlier 8 video games. Brown is a great applicant for your final-7 days push and is readily available in 95 % of ESPN leagues.
Brown plays at even energy with Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov. For his section, Komarov is a fantasy alternative future 7 days many thanks to the additional quantity of video games. He has 5 details in his earlier 5 video games and is readily available in 87 % of ESPN leagues
Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres go into the final 7 days with four maxed-out video games on the offensive Forecaster ratings. Rasmus Ristolainen is back from a suspension this weekend, so the offense will be firing on all cylinders. Kyle Okposo‘s status will be a concern mark for this weekend, but his absence Thursday was thanks to health issues, so he need to be back by future 7 days.
The very first end for a speculative increase need to be Tyler Ennis. Obtainable in 99 % of ESPN leagues, Ennis is locked in on the leading line with Jack Eichel — with or without having Okposo in the lineup. When Okposo is wholesome, he’ll be part of Eichel and Ennis on that line.
Edmonton Oilers: It will be appealing to see how the playoff-sure Oilers deploy their workforce in the final two video games of the common year. The Oilers have a property-and-property with the hapless Vancouver Canucks. Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon and Leon Draisaitl have been building opponents glance absurd, but will the Oilers give them a break in two video games that are arguably winnable by Edmonton’s farm workforce? These are the kind of eventualities you require to enjoy out in your head as the end of future 7 days strategies.
The Oilers are highlighted listed here since two video games versus the Canucks are especially advantageous, but you can also want to watch the Minnesota Wild, who near the publications on the year versus the Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes late future 7 days, the St. Louis Blues, who enjoy the Hurricanes and Avalanche on the final weekend, and the Washington Capitals, who most likely encounter non-playoff groups in the “on the bubble” Bruins and Panthers.
Goalie notes
Even now readily available in 33 % of ESPN leagues, end by and see if Frederik Andersen is readily available to enable your playoff push. With two sets of back-to-back video games, there is a opportunity he is rested a few of instances future 7 days. Nevertheless, there is also a opportunity the Maple Leafs march him out for all 5 video games with the postseason on the line.
Cam Ward appears to be to consider advantage of the injuries to Eddie Absence with some warm enjoy of late. He is posted two consecutive a single-objective-versus wins given that Absence acquired hurt on Monday. The Hurricanes have been pouring it on for a playoff push and if Ward stays warm, he’ll start out.
Scott Darling has struggled in his earlier handful of video games given that an injuries, but with their playoff seeding all but locked up, Chicago may well turn to him a lot more than as soon as future 7 days.
Steve Mason appears to be to have another very good start out or two in him. He is running on four straight wins with only 8 objectives authorized. The Flyers encounter the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday, then near with a back-to-back set more than the weekend.
There are crazier programs for the final 7 days than choosing up Minnesota’s Alex Stalock. Even even though he manufactured his very first start out of the year on Thursday for the Wild, he confirmed effectively in halting eighteen of 19 photographs and receiving the earn. It’s a lot more than we can say for Devan Dubnyk, who has been having difficulties mightily for the improved section of a thirty day period.
Player notes
Obtainable in fifty eight % of ESPN leagues, Mathieu Perreault proceeds to trip a warm streak into future 7 days. He has eleven details in his earlier 8 video games and was most just lately spotted on a line with Patrik Laine.
Sean Couturier is streaking to the finish with linemates Dale Weise and Brayden Schenn. His three-stage night time on Thursday was his 2nd this sort of exertion in his earlier seven video games. He is readily available in 84 % of ESPN leagues.
Sven Andrighetto just won’t know how to sluggish down. Even now building very good on his plum assignment alongside Nathan MacKinnon, Andrighetto has multi-stage efforts in his earlier two video games and 8 details in his last seven outings.
Pavel Zacha desires us to recall his identify going into future year. The Devils rookie has an help in 6 of his earlier 8 video games. He could get some line reinforcements with the predicted return of Michael Cammalleri this weekend.
Clayton Keller is remaining presented each opportunity to shine, positioned by the Coyotes on the “leading” line (the use of the phrase leading in Arizona is debatable) with Christian Dvorak and Radim Vrbata. He notched his very first NHL help in his 2nd game on Wednesday.
Equally, Brock Boeser now has two objectives in his very first three NHL video games with the Canucks skating on the “leading” line (as soon as yet again, an interchangeable time period for this squad) with Sven Baertschi and Bo Horvat.
The future university signee to debut will be Tyson Jost of the Avalanche. He holds similar deep-league upside to Keller and Boeser, and is absolutely a player to stash in keeper leagues.
The Blackhawks have appeared to have settled on Tanner Kero as the final member of the leading 6, enjoying with Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin. Kero has three details in his earlier two video games.
In a line shakeup, Chris Stewart performed on the leading line — we necessarily mean it listed here — for the Wild on Thursday. He picked up two helps enjoying with Eric Staal and Nino Niederreiter.
If Aleksander Barkov misses a lot more time, expect anyone other than Denis Malgin to get a shot on the leading line with Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau. We’re wanting at you, Nick Bjugstad or Jonathan Marchessault.
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Check out our latest NFL mock draft right here
Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images
Everyone has Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert in the first round. But is there a surprise QB?
There is only one game left in the NFL season, with the Kansas City Chiefs slated to play the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl. If that has you down, attention will soon shift to the 2020 NFL Draft.
This week’s mock draft goes back to Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa landing in the top five, and Joe Burrow and Chase Young going No. 1 and 2, respectively. But there are plenty of different possibilities projected. That includes a new quarterback landing in the first round.
1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
There have been a couple developments with the first pick in the draft. The first being that, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Bengals have no intention of trading the No. 1 selection. Of course, if the Bengals were truly trading open to trading it, letting it out this early would kill some of the return in value.
The second development was that Burrow doesn’t like Cincinnati’s famously disgusting Skyline chili. That take alone warrants the No. 1 pick.
2. Washington: Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
To my knowledge, Young has not weighed in on Washington’s culinary scene. Getting jacked with Arnold Schwarzenegger is kinda fun, though.
Look, Washington is going to take Young second overall unless something insane happens. I have to find new ways to say why every week until the draft.
3. Detroit Lions: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
The Lions could go a number of ways with the third pick, and that could spark a trade-down scenario. That will be explored in a future mock draft — in two weeks actually, so mark your calendar. If the Lions can move around and still land Brown, they should do it. Head coach Matt Patricia stressed getting pressure up the middle, and Brown can destroy a pocket.
4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
Simmons officially joined the draft pool on Saturday and is poised to be a high pick. He can dominate games from various parts of the field and was arguably the best player in the national title game last week after Burrow.
5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Last week’s mock draft explored the idea of what could happen if Tagovailoa falls because of injury concerns. Let’s check out some feedback:
My heart is just shattered. Anyway, as the draft process drags on, we’ll learn more about the truth of Tagovailoa’s health status. That will prove whether or not he slides, gets picked fifth overall, or goes even higher in a trade-up scenario.
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Philip Rivers is moving his army of a family to Florida, so let the baseless speculation commence. Sure, you can argue that the Chargers should fix their woeful offensive line before gambling on a first-round quarterback. But if they fall in love with Herbert, this pick won’t be a shock.
7. Carolina Panthers: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
With James Bradberry and Ross Cockrell both entering free agency, the Panthers have a large hole in the secondary. Drafting for need this high usually isn’t smart, but Okudah is one of the draft’s top players who can make an impact early in his career.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
Arizona would be fortunate if it gets its choice of offensive tackles with the eighth pick. Obviously, the tackle they select will be based on grades first, but the Cardinals also have a decision to make on left tackle D.J. Humphries. While he hasn’t exactly played like a first-round pick, the Cardinals could still use the franchise tag on him. If they do, they could take a more natural right tackle like Tristan Wirfs of Iowa.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
With two first-round picks this year thanks to the Jalen Ramsey trade, the Jaguars have the ammunition to move up if they love someone like Simmons or Brown. If they stay at No. 9, an offensive tackle might be the move. Wills was on the right of Alabama’s offensive line, but the Jaguars could use him at either spot.
10. Cleveland Browns: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
The Browns need to hope Herbert goes in the first nine picks. If he does, Cleveland should get one of the coveted top three offensive tackles. Any of Thomas, Wills, or Wirfs is a smart pick for the Browns.
11. New York Jets: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Of course the Jets would prefer one of the top tackles, but getting their choice of wide receivers has its advantages. Lamb is a more dynamic playmaker than Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, so he could get the nod on draft night.
12. Las Vegas Raiders: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Jeudy is one of the most sure-thing prospects in this draft thanks to his elite route running and hands. Sure, the Raiders have struck out on can’t-miss first-rounders before, but screwing it up with Jeudy seems impossible.
13. Indianapolis Colts: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
Just about every mock draft has the Colts going with a wide receiver with the 13th pick. However, Indianapolis is pretty average on defense, and could use a player like Kinlaw to stop the run and get after the quarterback.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
Shaquil Barrett, Carl Nassib, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh are all free agents on Tampa Bay’s defensive line. After a successful season rushing the passer, the Buccaneers can’t let that area of their defense fall apart. Especially if someone like Barrett prices himself out of town. Epenesa can work on the inside and outside, and is a good all-around player.
15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
Although Courtland Sutton blossomed into a legitimate No. 1 receiver with 1,112 receiving yards this season, the Broncos don’t have much after him. DaeSean Hamilton disappointed as the team’s secondary wide receiver, so a receiver like Ruggs would be a smart choice. That would surround quarterback Drew Lock with Sutton, Ruggs, and tight end Noah Fant.
16. Atlanta Falcons: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State
The athletic Gross-Matos could be a draft riser considering he plays a premium position, has good size at 6’5 and 265 pounds, and is coming off a season of 9.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss. Pass rush has been an issue for the Falcons for a few years, and they could finally solve it this draft.
17. Dallas Cowboys: Grant Delpit, S, LSU
This should be the absolute floor of Delpit’s range in the first round. He’s a good all-around safety prospect who showed this season he’s capable of being a single-high coverage safety.
18. Miami Dolphins (via Pittsburgh Steelers): Curtis Weaver, DE, Boise State
Miami has been in the bottom six of the NFL in sacks the last three seasons, and bottomed out as the worst in the league in 2019. That could force a move on a player like Weaver in the first round. He reminds me of Clelin Ferrell, whom the Raiders took fourth overall last year.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Jacob Eason, QB, Washington
It will only take one team to fall in love with Eason’s massive 6’6 frame and even more massive potential. The Raiders have fallen in love with traits plenty of times in the past and could see a franchise player in Eason.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars: (via Los Angeles Rams): Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Other than D.J. Chark, the Jaguars lack difference-making wide receivers. Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook are solid, but not spectacular. Higgins, though, has star potential. Ideally there would be a defensive tackle or linebacker worth the 20th pick, but it’s hard to value one here. It could be more of a second-round consideration.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado
Speaking of receivers with star potential, the Eagles could get a steal with a receiver like Shenault. In most years Shenault would be a top-15 pick or higher. But with this draft being loaded at the position, teams will get lucky in the middle of the first round.
22. Buffalo Bills: K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
The Bills go into the offseason needing a hybrid rusher who can line up at multiple positions. In this range, Chaisson and Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray will be in consideration. Chaisson is the better pass rusher while Murray is the better true linebacker.
23. New England Patriots: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
Love’s Senior Bowl is a must-watch storyline this week. With a good week, his draft stock could skyrocket into the top 15. The Patriots have taken a quarterback in three of the past four drafts, but none in the first or second round. This could be the year, whether it’s Love, Herbert, or even Eason.
24. New Orleans Saints: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
New Orleans has several key free agents this offseason, including cornerbacks Eli Apple and P.J. Williams. The Saints should let both walk and target a corner like Diggs. He would finally give the Saints a quality cornerback opposite Marshon Lattimore and help take some pressure off.
25. Minnesota Vikings: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
The Vikings are another team that should look to upgrade from disappointing veterans at cornerback. In Minnesota’s case, it is Xavier Rhodes, whose play has regressed dramatically the past two seasons. Fulton is a man coverage specialist on the outside, and the Vikings’ Mike Zimmer should be able to coach up Fulton’s tackling deficiencies.
26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans): Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
Becton bolted for the NFL after starting three seasons at Louisville, and should have a spot in the first round locked down. Now it’s just a matter of figuring out how high he could go. The Dolphins would be wise to pair Tagovailoa with a blocker on the edge, and Becton fits the bill.
27. Seattle Seahawks: Julian Okwara, Edge, Notre Dame
Chances are the Seahawks won’t be picking here on draft weekend considering general manager John Schneider’s usual transactional gymnastics. If the Seahawks happen to stay at No. 27, they could target a pass rusher. Okwara should test off the charts with the analytics community, and good coaching will take advantage of his traits.
28. Baltimore Ravens: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
After LSU’s national title win, Jefferson jumped to the NFL and could land a spot in the top 32. He has impressive hands, and is coming off a season with 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Ravens may have taken Marquise Brown in the first round last year, but they need another pass catcher.
29. Tennessee Titans: Terrell Lewis, Edge, Alabama
It was clear during the AFC Championship Game on Sunday that the Titans need to get a better pass rush. Harold Landry is a solid player, but Tennessee’s options after him are limited. Lewis is a good standup rusher who has the strength to set the edge against the run.
30. Green Bay Packers: K.J. Hamler, WR, Penn State
When the 49ers shut down Davante Adams for much of the NFC Championship Game, it was apparent that the Packers badly need a quality No. 2 wide receiver. Even if Hamler is not the biggest at 5’9 and 176 pounds, he can make a big play any time he touches the ball.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
Getting to the Super Bowl and still finding a top-line linebacker in the draft is the dream for the Chiefs. Murray is an active linebacker who will rush the quarterback and track the ball against the run.
32. San Francisco 49ers: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
A starter for two-and-a-half seasons at Florida, Henderson would give the 49ers a defensive back who can work on the outside or be used in the slot. Don’t forget, Richard Sherman is a free agent after the 2020 season.
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Controversial Decision Aside, Manny Pacquiao Looks Washed Up
Two distinct camps have formed in the day since "The Battle of Brisbane," where boxing legend Manny Pacquiao lost his WBO welterweight title and a highly-disputed unanimous decision to Australia's Jeff Horn.
Many who watched and listened to ESPN's broadcast believe they saw a robbery, and there is plenty to support that position.
Statistically, the 38-year-old Pacquiao dominated Horn, landing 182 punches—including 123 power punches—to Horn's 92 overall, according to CompuBox. Furthermore, the native Australian connected on only 15% of his punches during the 12-round bout, and while the crowd of 51,052 certainly responded to Horn's better moments, even they could sense the end was coming in the ninth round. Not only was Horn's right eye bloody and swollen, but afterwards referee Mark Nelson warned the former Olympian's corner that the fight would be stopped unless things turned around for Horn in the 10th.
But things did turn around for Horn, who survived the final three rounds, denying Pacquiao his first knockout since 2009.
Just how much they turned around will remain a matter of debate. Not only did two judges score the fight 115-113 in Horn's favor, but Waleska Roldan had the Australian up 117-111—an utterly baffling assessment of what many thought was a win for Pacquiao.
Boxer and ESPN commentator Timothy Bradley Jr. predicted a close decision, but long-time trainer-turned analyst Teddy Atlas had Pacquiao up 116-111, and was incredulous at the decision afterwards.
Photo courtesy of Duco Promotions
Pacquiao's long-time trainer Freddie Roach initially refrained from criticizing the judges too harshly.
"I have to go along with Manny and say I respect the decision of the judges," Roach said. "Well, two of the judges [who had it 115-113]. I did think Manny won, but Jeff Horn showed a lot of heart. He is a big, strong fighter, and I congratulate him."
Later, when speaking with Sydney, Australia's Daily Telegraph, Roach began to question the scoring a bit more harshly.
"That was hard, sometimes I think people need to be investigated," said Roach, who had previously predicted a knockout for Pacquiao against the relatively unknown Horn.
"At least in America where you get odd scores like that with the judges, the head commissioner should ask at some point, 'Why? Where? Show me how you came up with that score.'"
And then there was the outpouring of criticism from boxing royalty on social media.
"This is what's wrong with boxing," Tweeted heavyweight legend Lennox Lewis. "Horn was very game but I'm hard pressed to see how he could have won that fight by any stretch!"
But even though the criticism of decision has been louder, there is another perspective, and it's shared by those who relied only on their eyes.
"I watched the fight with no volume (thank God) because I was in a bar," veteran boxer and Showtime analyst Paulie Malignaggi wrote in a text message. "No one in there thought Pac was robbed. People need to stop with these punch-stat counters because they are very inaccurate and prone to human error and bias (last night being a clear indicator)."
Photo courtesy of Duco Promotions
Without the sound, indicators like the two lacerations along Pacquiao's hairline stood out a bit more, although each were caused by accidental head butts in the sixth and seventh rounds. (Pacquiao received 17 stitches after the fight).
And while Pacquiao was undeniably busier than Horn and had the fight's most-dominant round in the ninth, each of the other 11 frames were decidedly closer. It's not inconceivable that two judges could score the fight 115-113 in Horn's favor.
"Close, competitive fight in which Horn constantly made the fight," added Malignaggi. "He closed stronger as well. I thought either guy could win but Horn's strong finish won him the fight. And I am glad I had no choice but to watch with no volume last night. Wound up being the best way to watch the fight (and it made the punch stats even more laughable when they would pop up on the screen)."
Pacquiao has a rematch clause and he indicated that he'll take that option.
Regardless, even if you thought Pacquiao won in Brisbane, the demand to see the former Fighter of the Decade (2001-2010) was more or less extinguished on Saturday. After a dozen years as a pay-per-view mainstay, Pacquiao's power is fading quickly. He's still fast, but it's not enough anymore to overcome his 5-foot-5 frame.
There was a time when Pacquiao considered fighting unified junior welterweight champion Terence Crawford—who, like Pac-Man, is promoted by Bob Arum's Top Rank—but after "The Battle of Brisbane," who would waste their time, or even pay for such a mismatch?
"[Terence Crawford] toys with Manny," Tweeted promoter Lou DiBella. "Father Time is a bastard."
And even the idea of Pacquiao staying at welterweight, where younger champions like Keith Thurman (WBA, WBC) and Errol Spence Jr. (IBF) currently reign, no longer seems compelling.
"Nothing but respect for @jeffhornboxer," DiBella added. "True warrior, with huge heart and balls. He still lost! @ErrolSpenceJr beats both in tag team match."
The silver lining for fight fans was that they did not have to pay to see Pacquiao fight like a 38-year old who has been in the sport for 22 years. ESPN registered a 1.8 Nielsen rating, making "The Battle of Brisbane" the most-watched cable fight in over a decade.
And the "Worldwide Leader" isn't done.
Crawford hopes to unify the 140-pound division against fellow junior welterweight champion Julius Indongo on Aug. 19 after Vasyl Lomachenko, another Top Rank fighter, puts his WBO junior lightweight title on the line against Miguel Marriage on Aug. 5.
So even if Pacquiao-Horn left some fight fans disappointed, the sport continues to be more accessible in 2017.
For Pacquiao, though, it's not a question of fighting on pay-per-view or basic cable.
Audiences witnessed the sad truth that one of boxing's greatest champions simply no longer has it in him to compete at the highest level. Fans who were already disappointed by his dreadfully boring 2015 loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. certainly wouldn't pay for any potential rematch, and even if he returns to ESPN, it's hard to imagine an opponent fans would be excited to see him fight.
Yes, Pacquiao may have been robbed in Brisbane, but the real story is that he's finished. It's time for him to focus on his side job as a Philippine senator or maybe continue his charity work, but boxing no longer seems like a good idea.
Controversial Decision Aside, Manny Pacquiao Looks Washed Up published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight
You hear it all the time: The 2018 Senate map is bad, even “brutal,” for Democrats. Of the 35 seats on the ballot this cycle, 26 are held by senators who caucus with the Democrats, and just nine are held by Republicans. Democrats must flip two of those nine — without losing any seats of their own — in order to take a Senate majority. That’s not going to be easy given that only one of those Republican-held seats is from a state carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. At the same time, 10 Democratic incumbents are running for re-election in states won by President Trump, including deep red ones like North Dakota and West Virginia.
But while the 2018 map is the party’s steepest uphill climb in a long time, defending red-state Senate seats isn’t a new challenge for Democrats. In fact, they’ve gotten pretty good at it over the years. They haven’t had a choice: It gets less ink than the gerrymandered districts in the U.S. House, but the Senate — which reserves the same number of seats for a sparsely populated state as for a crowded one — has an inherent Republican bias as well. Within the past 25 years, Democratic majorities in the Senate — up through 1995, briefly from 2001 to 2002 and then finally from 2007 to 2015 — were possible because more Democrats represented red states than Republicans represented blue states. To wield a majority in 2019 and beyond, Democrats will simply (OK, not so simply) have to pull off the same trick.
To quantify how well Democrats have overcome this handicap in the past, we calculated the historical FiveThirtyEight partisan leans1 of every state in every Senate map since 1992.2 Then, for each Senate election cycle, we looked at how many seats each party held going into the election as well as how many seats each party won coming out of the election.3 Here’s what we found:
Partisanship of the Senate maps since 1992
Party breakdown of seats up for election by cycle
Seat breakdown before election Seats by Partisan Lean Seat breakdown after election Election Dem. GOP Dem. GOP Dem. GOP 2018 26 9 17 18 — — 2016 10 24 11 23 12 22 2014 21 15 14 22 12 24 2012 23 10 18 15 25 8 2010 19 18 17 20 13 24 2008 12 23 13 22 20 15 2006 18 15 17 16 24 9 2004 19 15 13 21 15 19 2002 14 20 9 25 12 22 2000 15 19 16 18 19 15 1998 18 16 14 20 18 16 1996 15 19 13 21 13 21 1994 22 13 18 17 14 21 1992 21 15 15 21 22 14
Sources: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, U.S. Senate
That’s a lot of numbers, so let’s simplify things a bit. To measure how “bad” the map was for a given party, let’s subtract the number of seats on the ballot in blue vs. red states from the number of those seats each party held going into the election. The result is the net number of senators representing states of the opposite party. We’ll call these FRITZ4 seats, in honor of former South Carolina Sen. Fritz Hollings, who represented South Carolina as a Democrat for 38 years. Democrats have 10 FRITZ seats (Democratic incumbents in red states) up for election this year, and Republicans have one FRITZ seat (Dean Heller of Nevada, the only Republican incumbent in a blue state), so 2018 has a net FRITZ score of -9 (from the Democratic perspective). The net FRITZ score represents how many Senate seats we would expect a party to lose if partisan lean were the only determinant in that year’s Senate elections.
Next, we want to know how many seats actually switched parties in the election. Finally, let’s compare the actual net gain with the net FRITZ score to quantify how that “good” or “bad” map affected each party’s success. This difference — represented by the arrows in the chart below — tells us how many more or fewer seats a party won than it “should” have based on partisanship alone.
At least since 1992, Senate elections haven’t been a slave to the partisanship of the states where they have occurred. In fact, Democrats have regularly faced unfavorable Senate maps (albeit none as bad as 2018’s), and they have regularly overperformed anyway, winning an average of 2.4 more seats per cycle than they are entitled to based on partisan lean alone. Much of this is likely because of the advantage of incumbency, but on three occasions (1992, 2006 and 2012), Democrats have actually gained Senate seats despite being at a partisan-lean disadvantage.5 Only in three famously strong GOP wave years (1994, 2010 and 2014) have Republicans overperformed the partisan baseline.
The good news for Senate Democrats is that, given the party’s healthy lead in generic-ballot polling, they are likely to overperform again this year.6 The bad news is that overperforming by enough to take back control would be unprecedented (at least in modern history). As mentioned above, Democrats’ -9 net FRITZ score in 2018 represents their worst position since 1992, and their best overperformance during that time frame has been +7. If Democrats repeat this and win seven more seats this year than partisan lean would suggest,7 that would translate to a Republican gain of two seats. Democrats need to overperform by a whopping 11 seats in order to snag a majority.
Still, Democrats should probably be thrilled with an overperformance of even half that. It all comes back to that pesky Republican bias in the Senate — and specifically its lopsided distribution. In short, 2018 could be not just bad, but a veritable armaggeddon for Senate Democrats. They should count their lucky stars that their worst-case map looks like it’s going to coincide with their best-case turnout environment.
The Senate isn’t just biased toward Republicans; it’s really biased toward Republicans. Going by partisan lean, there are 31 states more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole compared with just 19 states more Democratic-leaning. Because each state has two senators, that means 62 Senate seats (a filibuster-proof supermajority) are Republican-leaning and 38 are Democratic-leaning. But thanks to the Democratic overperformance we’ve been talking about, Republicans hold only a 51-49 majority. Democrats have achieved this by electing a total of 14 senators in red states while holding Republicans to only three senators in blue states.8 That’s a lot of Democratic FRITZ seats.
The Senate is divided into three “classes,” with one class on the ballot every two years. Each class has approximately the same number of senators but, because of the way elections have shaken out, not the same number of FRITZ seats. Specifically, 10 of those 14 red-state Democrats are members of Class I, which is up for election in 2018.
Regularly scheduled Senate elections by class
Democrats in … Republicans in … Blue States Red States Blue States Red States Class I (up in 2018) 15 10 1 7 Class II (2020) 9 3 2 19 Class III (2022) 11 1 0 22 Total 35 14 3 48
Independents are counted as members of the party with which they caucus. Class I does not include this year’s two special elections, which are filling Class II seats.
Sources: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, U.S. Senate
That’s a glaring Achilles heel for Democrats. One bad election cycle for this class could virtually eliminate red-state Democrats from the Senate in one fell swoop. That would give Republicans something like a 20-seat majority in the upper chamber — probably too wide for Democrats to overcome in any single future election cycle. Our current sense that the Senate could switch hands in any given election year would be no more, potentially emboldening the Republican majority to pass more conservative policies. In order to regain control, Democrats would not only need to rebuild their standing in red states from the ground up but also sustain that success over multiple election cycles. Given how presidential/midterm dynamics have caused recent elections to yo-yo between Democratic and Republican waves, that kind of sustained success looks harder than ever to achieve. It’s probably not an exaggeration to say that a bad 2018 could condemn Democrats to the Senate minority indefinitely — at least until something big changes about American political parties.9
Even as it is, of course, Democrats are still two seats shy of a majority. Let’s assume that 2018’s bulwark of red-state Democrats holds, but Republicans don’t lose any seats either — a status quo election. How do the 2020 and 2022 Senate maps look? They’re better for Democrats than their unprecedented 2018 jam, but the fundamental problem of the Senate map bias remains. In 2020, there are still more Democratic FRITZ seats on the ballot (three) than Republican ones (two).10 In 2022, as things stand right now, only one Democratic FRITZ seat is up for election, but there is a grand total of zero Republican FRITZ seats for Democrats to target.
Of course, the further we get into the future, the less we can say with confidence — party coalitions change, voter allegiances shift.11 But the lack of places in which to make Senate gains will likely haunt the Democratic Party beyond just this year. The lone Republican FRITZ seat on this year’s ballot, Heller, represents a full third of Democrats’ best targets in the entire Senate. Given the possibility of a Democratic wave election, 2018, even with its redder second-tier Democratic targets like Arizona and Tennessee, could actually be the party’s best chance in the next six years to capture that elusive majority. So maybe Democrats’ bad map isn’t a 2018 problem. Maybe it’s a Senate problem.
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