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mariacallous · 2 years

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Vladimir Putin is determined to shape the future to look like his version of the past. Russia’s president invaded Ukraine not because he felt threatened by NATO expansion or by Western “provocations.” He ordered his “special military operation” because he believes that it is Russia’s divine right to rule Ukraine, to wipe out the country’s national identity, and to integrate its people into a Greater Russia.

He laid out this mission in a 5,000-word treatise, published in July 2021, entitled, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” In it, Putin insisted that Belarusians, Russians, and Ukrainians are all descendants of the Rus, an ancient people who settled the lands between the Black and Baltic Seas. He asserted that they are bound together by a common territory and language and the Orthodox Christian faith. In his version of history, Ukraine has never been sovereign, except for a few historical interludes when it tried—and failed—to become an independent state. Putin wrote that “Russia was robbed” of core territory when the Bolsheviks created the Soviet Union in 1922 and established a Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. In his telling, since the Soviet collapse, the West has used Ukraine as a platform to threaten Russia, and it has supported the rise of “neo-Nazis” there. Putin’s essay, which every soldier sent to Ukraine is supposed to carry, ends by asserting that Ukraine can only be sovereign in partnership with Russia. “We are one people,” Putin declares.

This treatise, and similar public statements, make clear that Putin wants a world where Russia presides over a new Slavic union composed of Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, and perhaps the northern part of Kazakhstan (which is heavily Slavic)—and where all the other post-Soviet states recognize Russia’s suzerainty. He also wants the West and the global South to accept Russia’s predominant regional role in Eurasia. This is more than a sphere of influence; it is a sphere of control, with a mixture of outright territorial reintegration of some places and dominance in the security, political, and economic spheres of others.

Putin is serious about achieving these goals by military and nonmilitary means. He has been at war in Ukraine since early 2014, when Russian forces, wearing green combat uniforms stripped of their insignia, took control of Crimea in a stealth operation. This attack was swiftly followed by covert operations to stir up civil disorder in Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions close to the Russian border. Russia succeeded in fomenting revolt in the Donbas region and sparking an armed conflict that resulted in 14,000 deaths over the next eight years. All these regions have been targeted for assault and conquest since February 2022. Similarly, in Belarus, Putin took advantage of internal crises and large-scale protests in 2020 and 2021 to constrain its leader’s room for maneuver. Belarus, which has a so-called union arrangement with Russia, was then used as the staging ground for the “special military operation” against Ukraine.

The Russian president has made it clear that his country is a revisionist power. In a March 2014 speech marking Crimea’s annexation, Putin put the West on notice that Russia was on the offensive in staking out its regional claims. To make this task easier, Putin later took steps that he believed would sanction-proof the Russian economy by reducing its exposure to the United States and Europe, including pushing for the domestic production of critical goods. He stepped up repression, conducting targeted assassinations and imprisoning opponents. He carried out disinformation operations and engaged in efforts to bribe and blackmail politicians abroad. Putin has constantly adapted his tactics to mitigate Western responses—to the point that on the eve of his invasion, as Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders, he bragged to some European interlocutors that he had “bought the West.” There was nothing, he thought, that the United States or Europe could do to constrain him.

So far, the West’s reaction to the invasion has generally been united and robust. Russia’s aggressive attack on Ukraine was a wake-up call for the United States and its allies. But the West must understand that it is dealing with a leader who is trying to change the historical narrative of the last hundred years—not just of the period since the end of the Cold War. Vladimir Putin wants to make Ukraine, Europe, and indeed the whole world conform to his own version of history. Understanding his objectives is central to crafting the right response.

WHO CONTROLS THE PAST?

In Vladimir Putin’s mind, history matters—that is, history as he sees it. Putin’s conception of the past may be very different from what is generally accepted, but his narratives are a potent political weapon, and they underpin his legitimacy. Well before the full invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin had been making intellectual forays into obscure periods of the past and manipulating key events to set up the domestic and international justification for his war. In 2010, at the annual meeting of the Kremlin-sponsored Valdai International Discussion Club, Putin’s press spokesman told the audience that the Russian president reads books on Russian history “all the time.” He makes frequent pronouncements about Russian history, including about his own place in it. Putin has put Kyiv at the center of his drive to “correct” what he says is a historical injustice: the separation of Ukraine from Russia during the 1922 formation of the Soviet Union.

The president’s obsession with Russia’s imperial past runs deep. In his Kremlin chambers, Putin has strategically placed statues of the Russian monarchs Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, who conquered what are today Ukrainian territories in wars with the Swedish and Ottoman empires. He has also usurped Ukraine’s history and appropriated some of its most prominent figures. In November 2016, for example, right outside the Kremlin gates, Putin erected a statue of Vladimir the Great, the tenth-century grand prince of the principality of Kyiv. In Putin’s version of history, Grand Prince Vladimir converted to Christianity on behalf of all of ancient Rus in 988, making him the holy saint of Orthodox Christianity and a Russian, not a Ukrainian, Figure. The conversion means that there is no Ukrainian nation separate from Russia. The grand prince belongs to Moscow, not to Kyiv.

Since the war, Putin has doubled down on his historical arguments. He deputized his former culture minister and close Kremlin aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to lead the Russian delegation in early talks with Ukraine. According to a well-informed Russian academic, Medinsky was one of the ghostwriters of a series of essays by Putin on Ukraine and its supposed fusion with Russia. As quickly became clear, Medinsky’s brief was to press Russia’s historical claims to Ukraine and defend Putin’s distorted narratives, not just to negotiate a diplomatic solution.

Putin’s assertions, of course, are historical miasmas, infused with a brew of temporal and factual contradictions. They ignore, for example, the fact that in 988, the idea of a united Russian state and empire was centuries off in the future. Indeed, the first reference to Moscow as a place of any importance was not recorded until 1147.

BLAMING THE BOLSHEVIKS

On the eve of the invasion, Putin gave a speech accusing Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin of destroying the Russian empire by launching a revolution during World War I and then “separating, severing what is historically Russian land.” As Putin put it, “Bolshevik, Communist Russia” created “a country that had never existed before”—Ukraine—by wedging Russian territories such as the Donbas region, a center of heavy industry, into a new Ukrainian socialist republic. In fact, Lenin and the Bolsheviks essentially recreated the Russian empire and just called it something else. They established separate Soviet Socialist Republics for Ukraine and other regions to contrast themselves with the imperial tsars, who reigned over a united, Russified state and oppressed ethnic minorities. But for Putin, the Bolsheviks’ decision was illegitimate, robbing Russia of its patrimony and stirring “zealous nationalists” in Ukraine, who then developed dangerous ideas of independence. Putin claims he is reversing these century-old “strategic mistakes.”

Narratives about NATO have also played a special role in Putin’s version of history. Putin argues that NATO is a tool of U.S. imperialism and a means for the United States to continue its supposed Cold War occupation and domination of Europe. He claims that NATO compelled eastern European member countries to join the organization and accuses it of unilaterally expanding into Russia’s sphere of influence. In reality, those countries, still fearful after decades of Soviet domination, clamored to become members.

But according to Putin, these purported actions by the United States and NATO have forced Russia to defend itself against military encroachment; Moscow had “no other choice,” he claims, but to invade Ukraine to forestall it from joining NATO, even though the organization was not going to admit the country. On July 7, 2022, Putin told Russian parliamentary leaders that the war in Ukraine was unleashed by “the collective West,” which was trying to contain Russia and “impose its new world order on the rest of the world.”

But Putin also plays up Russia’s imperial role. At a June 9, 2022, Moscow conference, Putin told young Russian entrepreneurs that Ukraine is a “colony,” not a sovereign country. He likened himself to Peter the Great, who waged “the Great Northern War” for 21 years against Sweden—“returning and reinforcing” control over land that was part of Russia. This explanation also echoes what Putin told U.S. President George Bush at the April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest: “Ukraine is not a real country.”

The United States was, of course, once a colony of Great Britain. So were Australia, Canada, India, Ireland, and numerous other states that have been independent and sovereign for decades. That does not make them British or give the United Kingdom a contemporary claim to exert control over their destinies, even though many of these countries have English as their first or second language. Yet Putin insists that Ukraine’s Russian speakers are all Moscow’s subjects and that, globally, all Russian speakers are part of the “Russian world,” with special ties to the motherland.

In Ukraine, however, his push has backfired. Since February 24, 2022, Putin’s insistence that Ukrainians who speak Russian are Russians has, on the contrary, helped to forge a new national identity in Ukraine centered on the Ukrainian language. The more that Putin tries to erase the Ukrainian national identity with bombs and artillery shells, the stronger it becomes.

CONJURING NAZIS

Ukraine and Ukrainians have a complicated history. Empires have come and gone, and borders have changed for centuries, so the people living on modern Ukrainian territory have fluid, compound identities. But Ukraine has been an independent state since 1991, and Putin is genuinely aggrieved that Ukrainians insist on their own statehood and civic identity.

Take Putin’s frequent references to World War II. Since 2011, Putin has enshrined the “Great Fatherland War” as the seminal event for modern Russia. He has strictly enforced official narratives about the conflict. He has also portrayed his current operation as its successor; in Putin’s telling, the invasion of Ukraine is designed to liberate the country from Nazis. But for Putin, Ukrainians are Nazis not because they follow the precepts of Adolf Hitler or espouse national socialism. They are Nazis because they are “zealous nationalists”—akin to the controversial World War II–era Ukrainian partisan Stepan Bandera, who fought with the Germans against Soviet forces. They are Nazis because they refuse to admit they are Russians.

Putin’s conjuring of Ukrainian Nazis has gained more traction domestically than anywhere else. Yet internationally, Putin’s assertions about NATO and proxy wars with the United States and the collective West have won a variety of adherents, from prominent academics to Pope Francis, who said in June 2022 that the Ukraine war was “perhaps somehow provoked.” Western politicians and analysts continue to debate whether NATO is at fault for the war. These arguments persist even though Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea came in response to Ukraine’s efforts to associate with the European Union, not with NATO. And the debate has gone on, even though when Finland and Sweden applied to join the alliance in June 2022, despite months of threats from Russia, Putin told reporters that Kremlin officials “don’t have problems with Sweden and Finland like we do with Ukraine.” Putin’s problem, then, was not NATO in particular. It was that Ukraine wanted to associate with any entity or country other than Russia. Whether Ukraine wanted to join the European Union or NATO or have bilateral relations with the United States—any of these efforts would have been an affront to Russia’s history and dignity.

But Putin knows it will be difficult to negotiate a settlement in Ukraine based on his version of history and to reconcile fundamentally different stories of the past. Most modern European states emerged from the ruins of empires and the disintegration of larger multiethnic states. The war in Ukraine could lead to more Russian interference to stoke simmering conflicts in weak states such as Bosnia-Herzegovina and other Balkan countries, where history and territorial claims are also disputed.

Yet no matter the potential cost, Putin wants his past to prevail in Europe’s political present. And to make sure that happens, the Russian military is in the field, in full force, fighting the regular Ukrainian army. Unlike the situation in Donbas from 2014 to 2022, when Russia falsely denied that it was involved, this war is a direct conflict between the two states. As Putin also told his Russian parliamentarians on July 7, he is determined to fight to the last Ukrainian, even though he purportedly sees Ukrainians as “brothers.”

AT ANY COST

Putin abhors that the United States and European countries are supporting Ukraine militarily. In response, he has launched an economic and information war against the West, clearly signaling that this is not only a military conflict and a battle over who gets to “own history.” Russia has weaponized energy, grain, and other commodities. It has spread disinformation, including by accusing Ukraine of committing the very atrocities that Russia has carried out on the battlefield and by blaming Western sanctions for exacerbating famines in Africa when it is Russia that has blocked Ukrainian grain shipments to the continent from the Black Sea. And in many parts of the world, Russia is winning the information war. So far, the West has not been able to be completely effective in the informational space.

Nevertheless, Western support for Ukraine has been significant. This support has two major elements: weapons and sanctions, including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) from the United States, which have significantly increased Ukraine’s ability to strike back at Russian targets. Other NATO members have also supplied weapons and humanitarian assistance. But Ukraine’s constant need to replenish its arms has already begun to deplete the arsenals of donating countries.

Western energy, financial, and export control sanctions have been extensive, and they are affecting the Russian economy. But sanctions cannot alter Putin’s view of history or his determination to subjugate Ukraine, so they have not changed his calculus or his war aims. Indeed, close observers say that Putin has rarely consulted his economic advisers during this war, apart from Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the central bank, who has astutely managed the value of the ruble. This is a stark break from the past, when Putin has always appeared extremely interested in the Russian economy and eager to discuss statistics and growth rates in great detail. Any concerns about the long-term economic impact of the war have receded from his view.

And to date, Russia’s economy has weathered the sanctions, although growth rates are forecast to plunge this year. The real pinch from Western export controls will be felt in 2023, when Russia will lack the semiconductors and spare parts for its manufacturing sector, and its industrial plants will be forced to close. The country’s oil industry will especially struggle as it loses out on technology and software from the international oil industry.

Europe and the United States have imposed wide-ranging energy sanctions on Russia, with the European Union committed to phasing out oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022. But limiting gas imports is much more challenging, as a number of countries, including Germany, have few alternatives to replace Russian gas in the short term, and Putin has weaponized energy by severely reducing gas supplies to Europe. For 50 years, the Soviet Union and Russia cast themselves as reliable suppliers of natural gas to Western Europe in a relationship of mutual dependence: Europe needed gas, and Moscow needed gas revenues. But that calculation is gone. Putin believes that Russia can forgo these revenues because countries still buying Russian oil and gas are paying higher prices for it—higher prices that he helped provoke by cutting back on Russia’s exports to Europe. And even if Russia does eventually lose energy revenues, Putin appears willing to pay that price. What he ultimately cares about is undermining European support for Ukraine.

Russia’s economic and energy warfare extends to the weaponization of nuclear power. Russia took over the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine at the beginning of the war, after recklessly sending Russian soldiers into the highly radioactive “red zone” and forcing the Ukrainian staff at the plant to work under dangerous conditions. Then, it abandoned the plant after having exposed the soldiers to toxic radiation. Russia subsequently shelled and took over Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, and turned it into a military base. By attacking the power plant and transforming it into a military garrison, Russia has created a safety crisis for the thousands of workers there. Putin’s broad-based campaign does not stop at nuclear energy.

Russia has also weaponized food supplies, blockading Ukraine and preventing it from exporting its abundant grain and fertilizer stocks. In July 2022, Turkey and the United Nations brokered an agreement to allow Ukraine and Russia to export grain and fertilizer, but the implementation of this deal faced multiple obstacles, given the war raging in the Black Sea area. Indeed, immediately after the official signing of the agreement, Russia shelled some of the infrastructure at Ukraine’s critical Odessa port.

Putin has fallen back on another historic Russian military tactic—bogging down opposing forces and waiting for winter. Much as his predecessors arranged for Napoleon’s armies to be trapped in the snows near Moscow and for Nazi soldiers to freeze to death outside Stalingrad, Putin plans to have French and German citizens shivering in their homes. In his speech at the June 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin predicted that, as Europeans face a cold winter and suffer the economic consequences of the sanctions their governments have imposed on Russia and on Russian gas exports, populist parties will rise, and new elites will come to power. The June 2022 parliamentary elections in France, when Marine Le Pen’s extreme-right party increased its seats elevenfold—largely because of voters’ unhappiness with their economic situation—reinforced Putin’s convictions. The collapse of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government in July 2022 and the possible return of a populist, pro-Russian prime minister in the fall were also considered results of popular economic discontent. The Kremlin aims to fracture Western unity against Russia under the pressure of energy shortages, high prices, and economic hardship.

In the meantime, Putin is confident that he can prevail. On the surface, popular support for the war inside Russia seems reasonably robust. Polling by the independent Levada Center shows that Putin’s approval rating went up after the invasion began. Nonetheless, there is good reason for skepticism about the depth of active support for him. Hundreds of thousands of people who oppose the war have left the country. Many of them, in doing so, have explicitly said that they want to be part of Russia’s future but not Vladimir Putin’s version of the past. Russians who have stayed and publicly criticized the war have been harassed or imprisoned. Others are indifferent, or they passively support the war. Indeed, life for most people in Moscow and other big Russian cities goes on as normal. So far, the conscripts who have been sent to fight and die are not the children of Russia’s elites or urban middle class. They are from poor, rural areas, and many of them are not ethnically Russian. Rumors after five months of combat that the Moscow-linked Wagner mercenary group was recruiting prisoners to fight suggested that Russia faced an acute manpower shortage. But the troops are urged on by propaganda that dehumanizes the Ukrainians and makes the fighting seem more palatable.

DIVIDE AND CONQUER

Despite calls by some for a negotiated settlement that would involve Ukrainian territorial concessions, Putin seems uninterested in a compromise that would leave Ukraine as a sovereign, independent state—whatever its borders. According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option. Even giving Russia all of the Donbas is not enough. “Now the geography is different,” Lavrov asserted, in describing Russia’s short-term military aims. “It’s also Kherson and the Zaporizhzhya regions and a number of other territories.” The goal is not negotiation, but Ukrainian capitulation.

At any point, negotiations with Russia—if not handled carefully and with continued strong Western support for Ukraine’s defense and security—would merely facilitate an operational pause for Moscow. After a time, Russia would continue to try to undermine the Ukrainian government. Moscow would likely first attempt to take Odessa and other Black Sea ports with the goal of leaving Ukraine an economically inviable, landlocked country. If he succeeds in that, Putin would launch a renewed assault on Kyiv as well, with the aim of unseating the present government and installing a pro-Moscow puppet government. Putin’s war in Ukraine, then, will likely grind on for a long time. The main challenge for the West will be maintaining resolve and unity, as well as expanding international support for Ukraine and preventing sanctions evasion.

This will not be easy. The longer the war lasts, the greater the impact domestic politics will have on its course. Russia, Ukraine, and the United States will all have presidential elections in 2024. Russia’s and Ukraine’s are usually slated for March. Russia’s outcome is foreordained: either Putin will return to power, or he will be followed by a successor, likely from the security services, who supports the war and is hostile to the West. Zelensky remains popular in Ukraine as a wartime president, but he will be less likely to win an election if he makes territorial concessions. And if Donald Trump or a Republican with views like his becomes president of the United States in 2025, U.S. support for Ukraine will erode.

Domestic politics will also play a role outside these three countries—and, in fact, outside the West altogether. The United States and its allies may want to isolate Russia, but a large number of states in the global South, led by China, regard the Russia-Ukraine war as a localized European conflict that does not affect them. China has even backed Russia rhetorically, refused to impose sanctions, and supported it in the United Nations. (One should not underestimate the durability and significance of Russia’s alignment with China.) Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar summarized the attitude of many developing states when he said that Russia is a “very important partner in a number of areas.” For much of the global South, concerns focus on fuel, food, fertilizer, and also arms. These countries are apparently not concerned that Russia has violated the UN Charter and international law by unleashing an unprovoked attack on a neighbor’s territory.

There’s a reason these states have not joined the United States and Europe in isolating Moscow. Since 2014, Putin has assiduously courted “the rest”—the developing world—even as Russia’s ties with the West have frayed. In 2015, for example, Russia sent its military to the Middle East to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his country’s civil war. Since then, Russia has cultivated ties with leaders on all sides of that region’s disputes, becoming one of the only major powers able to talk to all parties. Russia has strong ties with Iran, but also with Iran’s enemies: particularly Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states. In Africa, Russian paramilitary groups provide support to a number of leaders. And in Latin America, Russian influence has increased as more left-wing governments have come to power. There and elsewhere, Russia is still seen as a champion of the oppressed against the stereotype of U.S. imperialism. Many people in the global South view Russia as the heir to the Soviet Union, which supported their post-colonial national liberation movements, not a modern variant of imperial Russia.

Not only does much of the world refuse to criticize or sanction Russia; major countries simply do not accept the West’s view of what caused the war or just how grave the conflict is. They instead criticize the United States and argue that what Russia is doing in Ukraine is no different from what the United States did in Iraq or Vietnam. They, like Moscow, justify Russia’s invasion as a response to the threat from NATO. This is thanks in part to the Kremlin’s propaganda, which has amplified Putin’s narratives about NATO and proxy wars and the nefarious actions of the West.

International institutions have not been much more helpful than developing countries. The United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe proved incapable of preventing or stopping this war. They seem increasingly the victims of Putin’s distorted view of the past as well as poorly structured to meet the challenges of the present.

DELUSIONS OF GRANDEUR

Putin’s manipulations of history suggest that his claims go beyond Ukraine, into Europe and Eurasia. The Baltic states might be on his colonial agenda, as well as Poland, part of which was ruled by Russia from 1772 to 1918. Much of present-day Moldova was part of the Russian empire, and Russian officials have suggested that this state could be next in their sights. Finland was also part of the Russian empire between 1809 and 1918. Putin may not be able to conquer these countries, but his extravagant remarks about taking back Russia’s colonies are designed to intimidate his neighbors and throw them off balance. In Putin’s ideal world, he will gain leverage and control over their politics by threatening them until they let Russia dictate their foreign and domestic policies.

In Putin’s vision, the global South would, at a minimum, remain neutral in Russia’s standoff with the West. Developing nations would actively support Moscow. With the BRICS organization—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—set to expand to include Argentina, Iran, and possibly Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, Russia may acquire even more partners, ones that together represent a significant percentage of global GDP and a large percentage of the world’s population. Russia would then emerge as a leader of the developing world, as was the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

All this underlines why it is imperative that the West (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, the United States, and Europe) redouble its efforts to remain united in supporting Ukraine and countering Russia. In the near term, that means working together to push back against Russian disinformation about the war and false historical narratives, as well as the Kremlin’s other efforts to intimidate Europe—including through deliberate nuclear saber-rattling and energy cutoffs. In the medium to long term, the United States, its allies, and its partners should discuss how to restructure the international and European security architecture to prevent Russia from attacking other neighbors that it deems within its sphere. But for now, NATO is the only institution that can guarantee Europe’s security. Indeed, Finland’s and Sweden’s decision to join was in part motivated by that realization.

As he looks toward a quarter century in power, Putin seeks to build his version of a Russian empire. He is “gathering in the lands” as did his personal icons—the great Russian tsars—and overturning the legacy of Lenin, the Bolsheviks, and the post–Cold War settlement. In this way, Putin wants Russia to be the one exception to the inexorable rise and fall of imperial states. In the twentieth century, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire collapsed after World War I. Britain and France reluctantly gave up their empires after World War II. But Putin is insistent on bringing tsarist Russia back. Regardless of whether he prevails in Ukraine, Putin’s mission is already having a clear and ironic impact, both on Europe and on Russia’s 22 years of economic advancement. In reasserting Russia’s imperial position by seeking to reconquer Ukraine, Putin is reversing one of the greatest achievements of his professed greatest hero. During his reign, Peter the Great opened a window to the West by traveling to Europe, inviting Europeans to come to Russia and help develop its economy, and adopting and adapting European artisans’ skills. Vladimir Putin’s invasions and territorial expansions have slammed that window shut. They have sent Europeans and their companies back home and pushed a generation of talented Russians fleeing into exile. Peter took Russia into the future. Putin is pushing it back to the past.

#this article is long but very good and I urge y'all to read it

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ukrainenews · 1 year

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Daily Wrap Up April 6-11, 2023

I took a little vacation, and it’s really hard to post these from a phone!

Under the cut:

Ukrainian forces are working to strengthen defensive lines and positions along the border with Belarus and Russia, the defence ministry has said.

The Pentagon is investigating a security breach in which classified war documents detailing secret American and Nato plans for supplying aid to Ukraine before its prospective offensive against Russia were leaked to social media platforms.

Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has pledged fresh military support for Ukraine after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Denys Shmyhal. Canada will send 21,000 assault rifles, 38 machine guns and 2.4m rounds of ammunition to Ukraine and impose sanctions on 14 Russian individuals and 34 entities, including security targets linked to the private mercenary Wagner group, Trudeau said.

Wagner founder and financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces now control much of the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Ukrainian officials have denied Prigozhin’s claim.

No ships were inspected on Tuesday under the Ukraine Black Sea grain deal "as the parties needed more time to reach an agreement on operational priorities," the United Nations said, adding that routine inspections were due to resume on Wednesday.

The German government reported transferring a new military aid package to Ukraine, which includes eight reconnaissance drones, another 23,520 rounds of 40-mm ammunition, and eight mobile antenna systems. Germany has also delivered eight more Zetros trucks for extreme off-road conditions bringing the total amount to 60, according to the report.

Ukrainian forces are working to strengthen defensive lines and positions along the border with Belarus and Russia, the defence ministry has said.

The ministry, citing Lt Gen Serhiy Nayev, commander of the joint forces of Ukraine’s armed forces, posted to Facebook:

The expansion of the system of engineering barriers in the areas bordering Belarus and Russia is ongoing. Anti-tank minefields are being created in tank accessible areas and probable paths of pushing the enemy deep into our territory which are roads, forest lanes, bridges, power lines, etc.

Nayev added that Ukrainian engineering units have equipped several dozens of mine fields using more than 6,000 anti-tank mines in the past week. Ukrainian soldiers were working “around the clock, despite the weather conditions”, he said.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, met with his Belarusian counterpart and close ally, Alexander Lukashenko, for talks in Moscow on Wednesday. Moscow is Minsk’s closest political and financial backer.

Lukashenko allowed Putin to use the territory of Belarus as a launch pad for the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Last month, Putin announced that Russia would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

-via The Guardian

The top secret documents were spread on Twitter and Telegram, and reportedly contain charts and details about anticipated weapons deliveries, battalion strengths and other sensitive information, the New York Times reported. According to military analysts, the papers appear to have been altered in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed, citing how the modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow.

“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon, as officials worked to have them deleted.

The NYT said the documents, which are five weeks old, with at least one carrying a “top secret” label, do not contain details of when, how, or where Ukraine intends to launch its counteroffensive.

According to analysts, however, the leak represents a “significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine”.

One of the documents, which circulated on pro-Russian government channels, summarised the training schedules of 12 Ukrainian combat brigades, and said nine of them were being trained by US and Nato forces, and needed 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanised vehicles, the newspaper said.

The classified papers also contain details on expenditure rates for munitions under Ukrainian military control, including for the Himars rocket systems, the US-made artillery rocket systems that have proved highly effective against Russian forces.

According to Ukrainian presidential official Mykhailo Podolyak, the leak was part of a Russian disinformation operation to sow doubts about Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

Podolyak told Reuters that the leaked data contained a “very large amount of fictitious information” and that Russia was trying to seize back the initiative in its invasion. “These are just standard elements of operational games by Russian intelligence, and nothing more,” Podolyak said. “Russia is looking for any ways to seize back the initiative. To try to influence the scenarios for Ukraine’s counteroffensive plans. To introduce doubts, to compromise the … ideas, and finally to intimidate [us] with how ‘informed’ they are.”

Nonetheless, Ukraine’s leaders met to discuss ways to prevent to prevent leaks of their defence plans, the president’s office announced on Friday.

In a separate development on Friday, Russia appeared to have made important gains in Bakhmut, one of the bloodiest battles of the year-long war, with outgunned Ukrainian troops holding out despite Moscow’s numerical superiority.

The UK Ministry of Defence said in its daily update that Russian forces had “highly likely advanced into the [Bakhmut] town centre, and has seized the west bank of the Bakhmutka River. Ukraine’s key supply route to the west of the town is likely severely threatened.”

It added: “There is a realistic possibility that, locally, Wagner and Russian MoD commanders have paused their ongoing feud and improved cooperation.”

The battle for Bakhmut has raged for seven months, with thousands of people killed and hundreds of buildings collapsed or charred. The few remaining civilians have been confined to basements for months with no running water, electricity or gas.

In spite of the rumours earlier this year of a retreat of his troops from the area, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he had instructed the army to find forces to bolster the defence of the embattled city.

The eastern military command spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi told Reuters that Ukraine controlled the situation in Bakhmut, understood Russian intentions and that Moscow had tactical success in some places, but was paying a high price for it.

“The situation is difficult; the enemy is concentrating maximum efforts to capture Bakhmut. However, it is suffering serious losses and not reaching strategic success,” Cherevatyi said.

“All decisions are taken with the aim of not allowing the enemy to break through our defence, to inflict maximum damage to it and preserve personnel. Having tactical success in some places, the enemy pays an exorbitant price for it and loses combat potential every day.”

-via The Guardian

Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has pledged fresh military support for Ukraine after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Denys Shmyhal.

Canada will send 21,000 assault rifles, 38 machine guns and 2.4m rounds of ammunition to Ukraine and impose sanctions on 14 Russian individuals and 34 entities, including security targets linked to the private mercenary Wagner group, Trudeau said.

The Canadian government is also imposing sanctions on nine entities tied to the Belarusian financial sector to further pressure Russia’s “enablers in Belarus,” Trudeau said.

-via The Guardian

Wagner founder and financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces now control much of the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

“We are fully concentrated on Bakhmut, continuing to carry out combat missions. In Bakhmut, most of it — that is, more than 80% — is under our control, including the entire administrative center, plants, factories, the city administration,” Prigozhin said. “What is left is part of the multi-story residential areas, where fortification districts were made. There are tunnels under these high-rise buildings.”

Ukrainian officials have denied Prigozhin’s claim.

"This statement by Prigozhin is not true,” Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the eastern grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces told CNN on Tuesday. “I've just been in touch with the commander of one of the brigades that are defending the city. I can confidently state that the Ukrainian defense forces control a much larger percentage of the territory of Bakhmut." "Prigozhin needs to show at least some victory in the city, which they have been trying to capture for nine months in a row, so he makes such statements," Cherevatyi added.

The Wagner founder has been known to make incorrect claims about his forces’ advance on the ground in Ukraine. Last week, he posted a grainy video raising a flag at dawn, saying Bakhmut had "been taken," despite ongoing fighting in and around the city. His claim was seen as a "pretty desperate" attempt, Western officials said.

What Western officials are saying: The officials conceded Russia had been able to make some progress in Bakhmut, but added it could be "measured in meters."

"The Russians at the moment, despite trying for six months, with huge numbers of personnel and huge numbers of losses, have been unable to take the town, and at the moment have made very, very slow progress,” the officials said at a briefing last Wednesday.

In the video this Tuesday, Prigozhin said Wagner fighters had relinquished control of some areas around Bakhmut to the Russian military.

“We handed over the flanks to the Ministry of Defence. Units of the Ministry of Defence, including the airborne troops, have today taken over both the right and left flanks,” he said. “That is why Zaliznyanskoye, Nikolaevka, and other settlements, which were stormed by units of the Wagner PMC in previous months, are in the area of responsibility of the airborne troops and other units of the Ministry of Defence.”

-via CNN

"We urge all involved to meet their responsibilities to ensure that vessels continue to move smoothly and safely in the interest of global food security," U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said in a statement, adding that there are currently 50 vessels waiting to move to the Ukrainian ports.

All ships are inspected by officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations in waters near Turkey on the way in and out of Ukraine. Official online data shows no ships were inspected on Tuesday.

Since the deal allowing the safe wartime export of grain from Ukraine's Black Sea ports was agreed in July, more then 27.5 million tonnes of food have been exported. Dujarric said this had contributed to the lowering of food prices globally.

"This critical work is done against the backdrop of the ongoing war and active hostilities. We do not underestimate the challenges, but we know they can be overcome," he said. "The U.N. team is working closely with all sides, taking into consideration all parties' concerns."

The deal - initially brokered last July by Turkey and the United Nations - was renewed last month for at least 60 days, half the intended period.

"The global humanitarian benefits of the initiative are evident and are not limited to exports to specific low-income countries. It is in everyone's interest to keep it going," Dujarric said.

Russia has said it will only extend the deal beyond May 18 if impediments to its export of agricultural products and fertilizer are removed. Moscow's demands include returning the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT banking system and unblocking the financial activities of fertilizer companies.

To help persuade Russia to allow Ukraine to resume its Black Sea grain exports last year, a three-year deal was also struck in July in which the United Nations agreed to help Russia with its food and fertilizer exports.

Western powers have imposed tough sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While its food and fertilizer exports are not sanctioned, Moscow says restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance industries are a barrier to shipments.

-via Reuters

Germany has also delivered eight more Zetros trucks for extreme off-road conditions bringing the total amount to 60, according to the report.

Kyiv has also received four armored engineer vehicles DACHS, including the one Berlin delivered over the past week, the government wrote in its weekly update.

From Jan. 1, 2022, to April 3, 2023, Germany provided Ukraine with more than 2.7 billion euros ($2.9 billion) in military aid, according to the German government.

On March 29, Germany approved additional military aid for Ukraine worth 12 billion euros, consisting of 3.2 billion euros that will be distributed in 2023, as well as credit lines worth 8.8 billion euros that will be allocated between 2024 and 2032.

Berlin has also taken the lead in what has been dubbed the "tank coalition" to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons for combat on the battlefield.

-via Kyiv Independent

#Daily Update #Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Germany #US #Canada #Bakhmut #Black Sea #Belarus

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rz-rosszogg · 7 months

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https://youtu.be/ikYt_nN3Wt0?si=0PqZjFWgJPUj32D3

Good day for Russian Federation forces..all over the Ukrainian battlefields.

Click on link above, to see the reality on the ground in Ukraine.. and from an independent large, powerful country..not from Russia.

Washington and Zelensky, are losing hundreds of troops dead, and whole platoons of Nato Zelensky soldiers surrender. Zelensky's military hardware burns in large numbers across Ukraine..and ammo is just a promise, an illusion supplied by US and UK desperados.

The reality is, that even the tiny numbers of western weapons and ammo, don't make it to the battlefield. The Pentagon constantly expressed "troubling supply problems", as the Russian Federation Airforce destroys most of it on route, and in warehouses, all over Zelensky's held territory.. even near the Polish border.

Furthermore, international military observers report, that the Russian military industrial complex produces 7 times more ammo, than all be western countries put together. The weapon production and modernisation, is in similar territory of comparative statistics.

Meanwhile, Varshava is turning away from Zelensky, and looking up towards Moscow, to mend the damaged relationship "between two Slavic families". As a matter of fact, Poland is doing now, what all other ex Warsaw Pact countries have been doing since late 2022.. mending relationships with Moscow, admitting own political mistakes under Washington pressure and blackmail tactics.

Washington conned and manipulated the Eastern European corrupt politicians, whilst the vast majority of the Eastern European public has supported Russia right from the start. Governments comes and goes..but the people always remain true to their family..the Slavic world is firmly with Russia, in their hearts and minds, shoulder to shoulder, they know who loves them and defends them in times of great challenges. Even half of the Germanic world is now supporting Russia.. even the American world is now turning towards Russian support..and even after all the Propaganda, Disinformation and absurd lies, people of the world know, that Washington can't be trusted.. but Moscow as it has always done, tells the truth, and humbly. It's not perfect, but it comes from the honest part of humanity. The Russians apologise when they make a mistake, Washington in opposite contrast.. diggs in deeper into further lies and excuses. Not a straight bone in the hypocrisy of the western anatomy.

#world #anti imperialism #russia #australia

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usafphantom2 · 9 months

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RAF Typhoons intercepted 50 Russian aircraft during air policing mission in Estonia

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 12/08/2023 - 13:47in Interceptions, Military

The United Kingdom has been leading NATO's air policing mission in Estonia for the past four months, demonstrating the United Kingdom's commitment to the Alliance and security in Europe.

The British Royal Air Force personnel returned to the United Kingdom after leading NATO's Baltic air policing mission in Estonia for four months, during which pilots intercepted 50 Russian aircraft and flew for a combined total of more than 500 hours.

Members of the 140ª Expeditionary Air Wing (140 EAW) have been deployed to Ämari Air Base since early March, along with a squadron of RAF Typhoon fighters, to carry out Rapid Reaction Alert (QRA) interceptions of Russian aircraft in transit near NATO airspace.

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The Typhoon jets and their pilots of squadrons IX (Bombardes) and 1 (Huntings) were deployed in Estonia from the Lossiemouth RAF Base, where most of the 140 EAW employees have already returned.

The deployment, called Op Azotize, began with RAF pilots flying on missions alongside the German Air Force - during which the first joint air interception between NATO allies took place, when British and German Typhoons pursued a Russian air-to-air refueling aircraft and transport aircraft.

140EAW personnel were called at one point to intercept Russian aircraft that did not make contact with NATO-controlled regional air traffic agencies and did not file flight plans, thus failing to adhere to international standards. This, in turn, creates a flight safety risk that must be investigated and monitored by NATO aircraft to ensure the safety of all air traffic in the region.

After assuming the full leadership of the air policing mission, the RAF Typhoons carried out QRA interceptions regularly - including a 21-day period in which Russian fighters, long-range bombers and reconnaissance aircraft were intercepted 21 times.

During the deployment, the operations took place in coordination with the Portuguese and Romanian Air Forces, which jointly led the NATO air policing mission in Lithuania.

While deployed in Estonia, the RAF also participated in several important exercises with NATO allies, including Exercise Air Defender, the largest NATO air deployment exercise since the end of the Cold War, with more than 250 aircraft and 10,000 people participating from 25 nations. The RAF's contribution to the exercise combined Typhoons of 140 EAW based in Estonia and 903 EAW based in Cyprus, and included F-35, Voyager and A400M aircraft flying from the United Kingdom.

The RAF 140EAW Typhoons conducted several exercises with the newest NATO member, Finland, including joint training in the Arctic Circle, as well as with the future member of the Alliance, Sweden. These exercises ensure the strength and unity of the alliance, as well as deter and defend against threats to NATO security.

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NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission was established at Amari Base in Estonia and at Siauliai Air Base in Lithuania in 2014, after the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia. The allies who contribute to the mission are deployed to air bases in Eastern Europe on a four-month rotation basis, providing protection and security to all NATO members, as well as partner nations.

The UK's defense commitment to Estonia will continue through Op Cabrit, with more than 1,000 British Army soldiers currently stationed at the Tapa Army Base to form the UK's contribution to NATO's advanced presence along its eastern border with Russia.

Tags: Military AviationInterceptionsNATO Baltic Air Policing MissionRAF - Royal Air Force/Royal Air ForceRussia

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Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Daytona Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work around the world of aviation.

Read more HERE

#world news #world politics #news #europe #european news #european union #eu politics #eu news #nato news #nato #nato allies #nato membership #nato expansion #germany #germany news #german news #german politics #lithuania

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recentlyheardcom · 6 months

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ISLAMABAD (AP) — Pakistani authorities have stepped up security at military and other sensitive installations following the weekend attack by militants on an air base that damaged three grounded aircraft and destroyed a fuel tanker, security officials said Monday.A recently formed group, Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for Saturday's attack in Mianwali, a city in eastern Punjab province, where police have repulsed multiple attacks by another group, the Pakistani Taliban, in recent months.Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan emerged earlier this year and has claimed multiple attacks, including the July 12 one on a security post in southwest Pakistan in which nine soldiers and a female passerby were killed.The military asserted that Saturday's attack at the Mianwali Training Air Base was largely thwarted because of a “swift and effective response” from security forces.Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press, taken Saturday hours after the attack, show one aircraft stand at the base destroyed by fire, while others appear to have sustained damage.The military said it killed all nine attackers.Authorities have increased security at military and other sensitive installations on intelligence reports about more possible attacks, said two security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to media.Also Monday, security forces raided a militant hideout in the northwestern Tirah area bordering Afghanistan, triggering a shootout that left four soldiers and three insurgents dead, the military said. In a statement, it said the slain troops included Lt. Col. Muhammad Hassan Haider, who had led multiple operations against Pakistani militants in the region.The Pakistani Taliban, who are known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, have not commented on the attack. The group is a close ally of the Afghan Taliban, who seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops were in the final stages of their pullout from the country after 20 years of war.___Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.

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newsaljazeera · 8 months

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worldwar355 · 8 months

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What Would Happen If World War 3 Started Yesterday

This stand-off ended peacefully on 28 October following a US–Soviet understanding to withdraw tanks and cut back tensions. With the advent of the Cold War in 1945 and with the spread of nuclear weapons technology to the Soviet Union, the possibility of a 3rd global conflict elevated. During the Cold War years, the potential for a third world war was anticipated and planned for by military and civil authorities in plenty of international locations. Scenarios ranged from standard warfare to restricted or total nuclear warfare. At the peak of the Cold War, the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which decided that an all-out nuclear confrontation would destroy all the states concerned in the conflict, developed discover more information here.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has welcomed a “historic” decision by the Netherlands and Denmark to offer Ukraine with as much as sixty one F-16 fighter jets between them, the most recent transfer by western allies to bolster his country’s efforts to fend off Russia’s invasion. The present disaster in navy recruiting qualifies as a direct menace... NATO’s Article Five emphasizes “collective defense,” the concept an assault on one NATO-allied country constitutes an assault on all member nations, theoretically frightening a mass, international response. A raging war in Ukraine, which shares borders with four NATO nations (Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland), raises the chance of Article Five being invoked.

Although the scenario made use of nuclear weapons, they were not expected to play a decisive position. All ranges of Russian authorities (federal, regional, and local) are involved in operating and justifying this marketing campaign, including President Putin and his so-called Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova. President Putin and Commissioner Lvova-Belova have been indicted by the ICC in The Hague which has moved decisively to carry Russian management accountable.

Much of World of Tanks’ technique relies on piloting a tank around battlefields that look handpicked out of World War II and different conflicts. Players rely on how fast, robust and well-armed their tanks are compared with different players’, and, as in actual tank battles, can use terrain to mask and protect their armored sprites. Sgt. Silver, a Ukrainian soldier in an artillery unit close to the eastern city of Siversk who, like most, goes by his call signal or first name for safety reasons, knew of the game’s popularity among the many ranks. But he figured it was a pastime that began for many earlier than the struggle and had simply carried over when is WW3. “I’m playing from time to time, after I have a bit of free time,” mentioned Lt. Nazar Vernyhora, who last year gained public consideration for his command of an actual tank that destroyed armored personnel carriers and broken a Russian tank during a battle exterior of Kyiv. Separately, the governor of Russia’s Kaluga region, south of Moscow, stated on Monday that a drone assault had been repelled without casualties or harm.

In the occasion of a conflict, it will be the actual plan to strengthen the NATO presence in Europe.[citation needed] In that occasion, it would have been referred to as Operation Reforger. The political targets of Reforger were to promote extended deterrence and foster NATO cohesion.[27] Important parts in Reforger included the Military Airlift Command, the Military Sealift Command, and the Civil Reserve Air Fleet.

The United States doesn't have the industrial capability to surge the construction of weapons and materiel needed to outlast and defeat its rivals in either China or Russia. Already, U.S. shipyards are having bother meeting the increased demand for output when it comes to building the Navy’s new Virginia-class submarines. These industrial flops are occurring all over America’s home provide chain. America’s latent industrial capabilities proved to be a decisive benefit over its foes in both world wars. This is a functionality that America lacks today—and it's going to take much effort and time to rehabilitate (if it occurs at all).

But U.S. leaders, regardless of party, acknowledged that if the United States and the Soviet Union squared off instantly, nuclear weapons would lay waste to the American mainland. It will require a national effort of historic restoration and imagination — firstly to enable the American folks to consider whether or not they wish to enter a significant struggle if the second of decision arrives. Currently, the war is being fought within the japanese, southern, and northern regions of Ukraine, in cities together with Kherson, which was lately claimed by Russian forces. Meanwhile, a large convoy of Russian navy automobiles seems to have stalled 19 miles outside when is WW3 of the capital Kiev. The longer the conflict goes on, the larger the risk of a stray Russian missile or rocket hitting one of the NATO countries that border Ukraine, or taking out an allied warship or jet operating close by.

(For example, after the shock wave passes, you have 10 minutes or more to find shelter earlier than the radioactive fallout arrives.) For every ethical condemnation of adversaries’ actions, Americans ought to hear candid assessments of the costs of making an attempt to stop them. Even better to observe it with a peace sport, showing how to avoid devastation in the first place. Without raising public consciousness, political leaders danger bringing about the worst-case outcome — of waging World War III and shedding it when the nation recoils. In most rounds of a war game lately performed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States swiftly misplaced two plane carriers, each carrying no much less than 5,000 folks, on high of tons of of aircraft, according to reports.

Training Ukrainian pilots is simply one of the challenges in the anticipated deployment of F-16s. Questions also stay over who will carry out essential aircraft upkeep, the availability of spare components, runway maintenance and protective shelters for the planes on the bottom, and what weapons the West will supply to arm the fighter jets. The urge to play a violent online game in the midst of essentially the most brutal land struggle in Europe since World War II may seem baffling. However, a US official stated last week Ukrainian forces did not seem doubtless to have the power to reach and retake the Russian-occupied strategic south-eastern city of Melitopol during their counteroffensive.

Despite Russian setbacks in Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has indicated that Putin is determined to succeed, doubling down on tactics which have more and more led to civilian deaths. The first indication of that was a Russian airstrike that hit a maternity hospital within the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol in current days. Russian forces additionally struck a theater in Mariupol where civilians were taking shelter, then a shopping center in Kyiv that killed eight folks. If there are accidental or purposeful Russian strikes into NATO territory, it would trigger Article 5 of the Western treaty, which might necessarily provoke a navy response from the united states, Cross says. It’s probably that would spark a conflict between the West and Russia on the order of a world war, as it might contain a lot of the world’s superpowers, she says.

So right now, we now have what might be thought-about an internationalized battle. We have a battle between two different states that's drawing increasingly attention from external actors. Really, a few of the most intense consideration to such issues that we’ve seen for the explanation that end of World War II. Currently, the U.S. defense finances is 4.2 percent of America’s total GDP.

"Nobody knows whether it could have already began. And what's the potential for this war if Ukraine will fall, in case Ukraine will? It's very exhausting to say," Zelenskyy stated. "And we've seen this eighty years in the past, when the Second World War had began ... nobody would have the flexibility to predict when the full-scale warfare would begin." Refusing to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine could also be justified as a result of it exceeds the risks NATO nations are ready to tolerate.

Doing so would involve deliberation from all NATO members and, doubtlessly, Russia, and wouldn’t essentially translate to a direct response. Biden devoted $800 million in new army assist for Ukraine on Wednesday, together with 800 anti-aircraft techniques and 9,000 anti-armor methods. But the president has ruled out sending fighter jets, a request Zelenskyy additionally brought to Congress as an alternative to the no-fly zone declaration. This has been explained as being due to the brevity of the crisis because the clock monitored more long-term components such as the leadership of countries, conflicts, wars, and political upheavals, in addition to societies' reactions to mentioned elements.

But on the same time, the United States and China and several other international locations are clearly attempting to hold back and attempting to urge restraint, which at least bodes properly, I suppose, for the prospects of avoiding a World War III. If the potential for struggle with Russia was not enough, U.S. relations with China are in free fall, setting up the world’s two leading powers to sq. off for decades to come. Not having to fret concerning the effects of wars — unless you enlist to fight in them — has nearly turn into a birthright of being American.

The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) was set up in 1984 throughout the United States Department of Defense to oversee the Strategic Defense Initiative. Another major concern is that organic warfare might trigger many casualties. It might happen deliberately or inadvertently, by an accidental release of a organic agent, the unexpected mutation of an agent, or its adaptation to other species after use. Large-scale apocalyptic occasions like these, attributable to superior expertise used for destruction, may render most of Earth's surface uninhabitable. Israel stated Thursday that the united states authorities had approved its request to promote Germany its Arrow three missile defense system, setting in movement a $3.5 billion settlement that comes as Germany goals to improve its navy amid the warfare in Ukraine. Israel mentioned that the U.S. government had permitted its request to sell Germany a missile protection system, setting in motion a $3.5 billion agreement that Israeli officers described because the country’s “largest ever” weapons deal.

Subsequently, an modification mandates renunciation of Ukrainian citizenship for children underneath 14 years of age if their facility-based guardian applies for Russian citizenship, impeding parents separated from their kids from influencing the process. This is very troubling given that many parents had been coerced into surrendering legal authority to Russian authorities at camps. The OSCE additional alleges that Ukrainian youngsters are deprived of their cultural heritage as they're positioned in completely Russian environments, including language, customs, and faith. This supports allegations that Russia is trying to erase Ukraine as an unbiased sovereign identity. Ukrainian kids held in Russian camps are subjected to focused re-education campaigns and even navy coaching.

The West and Russia are already at warfare in nearly every sphere except precise combating. But is escalation into an era-defining armed conflict inevitable, asks Sky's Deborah Haynes. It is value noting, however, that the concept of Eastern Europe changing into ground zero for yet one more global struggle is nothing new, and has been thought-about as a chance by historians and military experts for years. The hesitance to impose the no-fly zone led Zelenskyy to say Tuesday that he sees no "open door" for Ukraine to hitch NATO, according to a video of him talking with army officers posted to Telegram. The conflict resulted in a ceasefire, with a return to the established order. Critics level out that the Chinese assault on Zhenbao was to deter any potential future Soviet invasions; that by killing some Soviets, China demonstrated that it couldn't be 'bullied'; and that Mao wished to teach them 'a bitter lesson'.

The exchange of nuclear, not to mention organic and chemical, weapons shall be a excessive likelihood because the combatants looked for leverage over each other, just as the Germans and Allies did with chemical weapons within the First World War, the longer that war ground on. This would particularly be the case after early-warning missile satellites were knocked out in the opening phases of a space warfare. eleven wars — and approximately 4 instances as many by suicide — devastated households and communities but were not enough to produce a Vietnam-style backlash. Likewise, though the wars have price a whopping $8 trillion and counting, the payments have been unfold over a long time and handed to the future. Nuclear terror became a half of American life, thanks to a purposeful effort by the government to prepare the nation for the worst.

Of the three nuclear powers in NATO (France, the United Kingdom, and the United States) solely the United States has offered weapons for nuclear sharing. The SDI idea was to make use of ground-based and space-based methods to guard the United States from attack by strategic nuclear ballistic missiles. The initiative centered on strategic defense rather than the prior strategic offense doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD).

Now greater than a month later, hundreds of civilians and thousands of soldiers have been killed and roughly 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced by the battle. As Russia turns to more devastating techniques and Ukrainian calls for NATO to determine a no-fly zone go unmet, the war has reached a stalemate, elevating issues about whether or not combating might spill over into neighboring countries. Since the Nineteen Seventies, the United States has had an All-Volunteer Force (AVF).

Similarly, U.S. policymakers have a moral responsibility to raised put together the country for the approaching storm proper now. A lack of planning will ensure the worst potential situation befalls the United States when a fantastic power war begins. Premodern tribalism will rapidly exchange postmodern enlightenment—especially because the technological trappings of modernity were stripped away.

Ukraine’s government and legal experts have additionally called for recognition that the targeted transfer of children is a violation of the Genocide Convention, which explicitly includes the forcible switch of youngsters of 1 conflict party to the territory of another. Legal safety of kids aims explicitly to prevent the displacement of unaccompanied kids from one territory to a different. Non-consensual evacuations, transfers, and extended displacement are violations of the Fourth Geneva Convention.

In a sequence of interviews, he asserted that the United States has a commitment to defend Taiwan (in fact, it's obligated solely to assist arm the island) and vowed to ship U.S. troops within the occasion of a Chinese invasion. These repeated gaffes are doubtless meant to deter Beijing in gentle of its many latest navy maneuvers around the island. But especially in tandem with high-level congressional visits to Taipei, they risk implying that the United States wishes to keep Taiwan permanently separated from the mainland — a position it is hard to imagine Beijing will ever accept.

Reuters additionally stories that arrivals and departures from Moscow’s Vnukovo airport had been suspended on Monday after a Ukrainian drone had been jammed over the Moscow region. The Ukrainian army said on Thursday it had made gains on the south-eastern front, pushing forward from the newly liberated village of Urozhaine. Russia has condemned a decision by Denmark and the Netherlands to donate F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, saying the transfer would escalate the warfare. After assembly Mitsotakis, the two leaders will make statements to the press, his office mentioned. Zelenskiy will then attend an off-the-cuff dinner hosted by Mitsotakis of western Balkan leaders, which the EU fee president, Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council president, Charles Michel, will also be a part of. And it actually requires a collective response to handle the human struggling that’s emerging separate from geopolitical risks that are concerned.

And in that case, I assume it’s very possible you would get a diplomatic deal of some kind. But I think it’s very attainable that you simply get a diplomatic deal of some sort with Putin in power, as a outcome of it means that Putin himself isn’t really wedded to those exceptionally aggressive or exceptionally expansive targets. He went into Georgia beneath conditions when it wasn’t likely the West was going to get involved. He went into Ukraine solely after negotiations with the Ukrainian authorities had failed, and strain upon the West had actually failed. I see very little evidence that up to this point in his very long tenure as Russia’s chief that he really is keen to gamble Russia’s future on direct confrontation.

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libertariantaoist · 9 months

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News Roundup 8/9/2023 | The Libertarian Institute

Here is your daily roundup of today's news:

News Roundup 8/9/2023

by Kyle Anzalone

US News

Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui on Sunday called for world leaders to recognize the “folly” of nuclear deterrence at a ceremony marking the 78th anniversary of the US dropping an atomic bomb on the city, killing an estimated 140,000 people. AWC

Russia

The majority of Americans oppose additional spending on the war in Ukraine, according to a CNN poll that was released on Friday. AWC

The US, China, and India attended talks on the Ukraine war in Saudi Arabia on Saturday that were aimed at convincing neutral countries to support Ukrainian demands for a peace deal. AWC

Russia has vowed it will respond to a Ukrainian attack that hit a Russian oil tanker in the Black Sea near Crimea on Friday night, which came after Ukraine’s first strikes on a Russian commercial port. AWC

The acting governor of Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s southern Kherson Oblast said Sunday that Ukrainian forces used British-provided Storm Shadow missiles to strike a bridge that connects Kherson to Crimea. AWC

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian commercial port for the first time since the start of the war. Novorossiysk was shut down for a few hours after it was hit by Ukrainian air and sea drones. Two percent of the world’s oil supply and grain are shipped from Novorossiysk. AWC

A Ukrainian official said Thursday that the US and Ukraine have started talks on security guarantees for Ukraine, part of a plan for Washington to provide long-term military support for Kyiv. AWC

The International Monetary Fund has said it expects the Russian economy to grow by 1.5% this year despite the US-led Western sanctions campaign against the country, which President Biden once vowed would “turn the ruble into rubble.” AWC

Ukrainian forces have still made no breakthroughs against Russian forces in the counteroffensive despite sending thousands of more troops to the front for a renewed push in the southeast, POLITICO reported Tuesday, citing unnamed Pentagon officials. AWC

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki claimed on Thursday that Wagner fighters were deployed to Belarus in an attempt to “destabilize” bordering NATO countries, which the alliance refers to as its eastern flank. AWC

The Times of London reported Thursday that the British Royal Air Force intercepted 50 Russian planes over Estonia in the past four months while it led NATO’s air policing mission on Russia’s border. AWC

The White House is expected to formally ask Congress to authorize additional funding for the Ukraine war as soon as this week, Punchbowl News reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter. AWC

The first batch of Abrams tanks that the US is providing Ukraine was authorized for shipment over the weekend and is expected to arrive in the country in early fall, the US Army’s top acquisition official said Monday. AWC

A Ukrainian official told POLITICO on Tuesday that all Russian ports and ships, including commercial vessels, are considered legitimate military targets as the war in Ukraine is escalating in the Black Sea. AWC

A Western official told CNN in an article published Tuesday that it’s “extremely” unlikely that Ukraine will make progress in its counteroffensive in the coming weeks that will alter the balance of the war with Russia. AWC

The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that US-provided cluster bombs are fueling the Ukrainian counteroffensive and detailed how Ukrainian forces are using the civilian-killing munitions against Russian soldiers. AWC

The US deployed four Navy destroyers in response to Russian and Chinese vessels operating near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, which stretch far into the northern Pacific Ocean. AWC

Iran

The US military may place armed troops on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would significantly raise tensions between the US and Iran, The Associated Press reported Thursday. AWC

Niger

Nigeria’s Senate has warned against military intervention in neighboring Niger after Nigerian President Bola Tinubu requested backing for such an action against Niger’s new military junta. AWC

President Biden on Thursday called for the immediate release of Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum, who’s been detained since being ousted by a military coup last week. AWC

Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland traveled to Niger’s capital Niamey on Monday and held what she described as “difficult” talks with members of the junta that ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum in a July 26 coup. AWC

#kyle anzalone #libertarian institute #news roundup

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mariacallous · 7 months

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CHEMNITZ, Germany—Werner enthusiastically waved a white, red, and blue Russian tricolor flag—with the added imperial crest of the tsars—as we talked outside the former Stasi headquarters of what was once Karl Marx City, now Chemnitz, in eastern Germany.

“The current German state is worse than what we had during communist times, and America, not [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, is the true evil of this world,” he said, aggressively thrusting his finger in my face, our conversation eavesdropped on by a giant statue of Marx.

A retired bricklayer in his 70s, Werner might be expected to have mellowed with age. He’s old enough to have been briefly interrogated by the Stasi in the 1980s and to remember his father, a former Nazi soldier, returning disheveled from Soviet imprisonment in the 1950s. But none of that has stemmed his apparent sympathy for Russian imperialism, nor his anger at the West.

“German reunification benefited only the West Germans, and Germany should leave us Saxons alone,” he said. “Germany should also leave Putin alone, as it was far worse to Russia in World War II than Putin is to Ukraine now.”

Meet the Free Saxons movement. Werner has been attending every Monday rally of the secessionist right-wing monarchist movement that seeks to restore the kingdom of Saxony, which historically never had much weight beyond its own borders during its 112-year existence that ended with World War I. And like much of the German political fringe, it finds curious common ground with Putin’s Russia.

The Russian president has exerted influence over East German attitudes toward Russia since he arrived in Dresden, Saxony’s regional capital, on his first posting as a young KGB agent in the mid-1980s. His foreign assignment in East Germany came to an abrupt end on Dec. 5, 1989, when demonstrators occupied the Stasi headquarters. Another crowd rushed to the nearby KGB office where he had a close encounter as they came close to storming the building. His subsequent calls to the Red Army for protection and reinforcements were met with silence, something Putin has never forgiven or forgotten.

In perhaps his most famous quote, Putin told the Russian parliament in 2005 that the collapse of the USSR was the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.” To him, it was an experience of personal humiliation. In 1990, he returned with his young family to his hometown of Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, where he claimed to have had to drive a taxi to make ends meet, before landing a more lucrative gig as the serial president, sometimes prime minister, of Russia.

But almost 40 years later he still finds receptive ears in the former Soviet satellite where a curious alliance of elements from across the political spectrum has voiced sympathy or support for his invasion of Ukraine. A survey conducted last October suggests that 40 percent of Germans fully or partially believe that NATO provoked Russia into invading Ukraine; that number increases to 59 percent in provinces that were once part of communist East Germany. Saxony, East Germany’s most populous federal state, falls slap bang in the middle of that anti-NATO heartland.

In his vendetta against the West, Putin has sought to erode Western liberal democracies and the Euro-Atlanticist compact, boosting destabilizing political candidates and supporting local separatist groups regardless of their ideological alignment. Russian disinformation campaigns have been linked to, among other events, the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, the Scottish and Catalonian independence referendums, and Brexit.

Here in Chemnitz, it seems that Saxony is next on the list.

On a camping table set up next to Werner, political brochures and stickers called for an alliance between Saxony and Russia. There were flags of the historical Kingdom of Saxony and calls for “Säxit”—à la Brexit—far-reaching autonomy from Germany or even Saxony’s secession.

The Free Saxons, while nominally preoccupied with regional secessionism, offer a broad church of pro-Russian sentiment that has variously united far-right extremists, Soviet nostalgics, and marginalized anti-government cranks who rant about everything from vaccines to 5G to the war in Ukraine.

“Saxony has always had a public opinion different from the rest. We want good relations with Russia. No weapons for Ukraine,” said Michael Brück, a Free Saxons spokesman who sees the war in Ukraine as one between “Slavic peoples” and one in which Germany has no business.

“The people here think of [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky as an actor, a criminal, and a puppet of the United States. Putin is his counterpart. He stands up to U.S. imperialism. Most people here are anti-U.S. Here in Saxony, the people remember the Dresden firebombing [in early 1945, a joint Royal Air Force and U.S. Army Air Forces operation]. For the people here, the Americans are warmongers.”

That history, plus decades of economic deprivation, sowed the seeds of dissent and even radicalism in Saxony. Notably, it was a member of the Saxon-Thuringia aristocracy who planned an attempted coup in Germany in 2022. Prince Heinrich XIII Reuss joined with the Reichsbürger—a far-right imperial revivalist movement—in its attempt to overthrow the government. The plot was uncovered in December when prosecutors arrested 25 Reichsbürger plotters, including Reuss and current and former security service members. The putsch was derided for its grandiose ambition and dead-on-arrival failure. But it was a sobering reminder of the resurgence of the German far right and its apparent willingness to commit violent revolutionary acts. The killing of two police officers in January 2022 was also tied to the Reichsbürger, while in April 2022 a Reichsbürger member tried to kill several police officers while they attempted to execute a search warrant for the illegal possession of firearms. The ringleader, Reuss, reportedly celebrated the 2022 Russia National Day in Russia’s consulate general in Leipzig.

As Russia did with the Trump campaign and Brexit, Saxony has become a target of pro-Russian messaging and misinformation, which flourishes in a post-truth media landscape.

“Nobody believes the [mainstream] media here. If the German media says tomorrow it is going to be sunny, we Saxons will put our raincoats on. That’s why people turn to Telegram,” a social media platform widely used in Russia and Ukraine, Brück said.

Since the government enforced closure of the Russia Today (RT) operation in Germany, Kremlin sympathizers have tuned in to Russian-linked independent media and influencers. “Anti-Spiegel,” a play on German newspaper Der Spiegel, is run by Thomas Röper, a German blogger living in St. Petersburg, a Kremlin-loyal peddler of disinformation, conspiracy theories, and Russian propaganda. Russian media reports are also translated and published for a German audience. It has 110,000 Telegram subscribers. Another German blogger, Alina Lipp—a former German language correspondent for RT—plays an important role chirruping Russian propaganda to her 196,000 Telegram subscribers. Her widest-reaching posts reportedly receive over 2 million views.

Their messages are finding their mark. In February, the Berlin-based Center for Monitoring, Analysis, and Strategy (CeMAS) released a paper on the role of Russian disinformation in Germany, finding that between the spring and autumn of 2022, approval of pro-Russian propaganda narratives increased significantly, especially in the east.

Putin’s disinformation warriors have coincided with the rise of anti-technocratic movements on both sides of the ideological divide, a boon to those in Moscow looking to destabilize the centrist consensus that has dominated German politics for decades. The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has within a year doubled its average poll numbers, riding a wave of populist outrage over immigrants and energy prices. The AfD, whose delegations occasionally visit Moscow, wants to dissolve the EU, strengthen Germany’s individual national military posture at the expense of Germany’s NATO engagement, and end all sanctions against Russia.

Recent national polling put the AfD at 22 percent, ahead of the ruling Social Democratic Party, and trailing only the conservative Christian Democratic Union, at 27 percent. In several eastern states, the AfD polls above 30 percent and has grabbed one mayorship and one district administrator post.

The AfD, like many others in the east, has a big crush on the Kremlin. A regional legislator, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, founded an association called East Wind, seeking to forge closer ties with Russia. He tried to visit Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine late last year, before even AfD leadership balked at the optics. Tillschneider has said before that Russia was the liberator of Germany in World War II, unlike the United States.

“There are still tens of thousands American soldiers occupying our country,” he said, referring to U.S. troops who have spent decades there as part of NATO’s defense against that very same Russia. “The USA wants to make us pawns on the Ukrainian battlefield to expand its ‘rainbow [LGBT] empire.’”

The German far right loves that kind of talk. But the German left is on board, too, reasoning that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The Alliance for Peace in Brandenburg holds vigils on leftist outrage topics, like the bombing of Hiroshima in 1945 or NATO nuclear drills, and lobbies against Western arms deliveries to Ukraine. Dominik Mikhalkevich, the Alliance’s Belarus-born spokesman, said NATO drills are escalatory and Germany’s defense mandate should be just to protect its own territory.

“Sanctions against Russia should be dropped, as sanctions always play in the wrong hands,” Mikhalkevich said. “I am from Belarus, a country where Western sanctions have always caused the opposite they were designed to achieve, as illustrated by [Belarusian President Aleksandr] Lukashenko still being around.”

Much like what happened in the United States, the special trick with Russian misinformation is how it manages to appeal to both the far right and the far left. German rightists love—and cite—Russia’s gripes about alleged Ukrainian oppression of Russian speakers in the country’s east and south and its claimed defense of white Christian European culture, said Jakub Wondreys, of the Hannah Arendt Institute for the Research on Totalitarianism in Dresden. Yet they are curiously quiet about Russia’s claims to be “de-Nazifying” Ukraine, for obvious reasons.

The left, meanwhile, is happy to ape Putin’s anti-NATO rhetoric but overlooks his social conservatism. “Both sides are cherry-picking their arguments from the Russian disinformation campaign,” Wondreys said.

But Germany’s left, split between Putin supporters and opponents, is in free fall. It’s the right that is ascendant. An AfD win in the next parliamentary election in 2025 could turn Germany into a big Hungary, said Wolfgang Muno, a political scientist at the University of Rostock. Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban is Russia’s Trojan horse inside the European Union, consistently backing Moscow while blocking Brussels’s efforts to impose sanctions or wean off Russian energy.

“We can see what happens when Putin lackeys rule in Hungary,” Munro said. If the AfD joins a ruling coalition, he said, sanctions on Russia, and perhaps large-scale German arms deliveries to Ukraine such as Leopard tanks, would be on the chopping block, and Putin would get a lifeline.

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ukrainenews · 1 year

Text

Daily Wrap Up February 11-13, 2023

Under the cut:

Moldova's president accused Russia on Monday of planning to use foreign saboteurs to bring down her tiny country's leadership, stop it joining the European Union and use it in the war against Ukraine.

On Feb. 13, Ukraine denied Russia's earlier claim that it had seized control of Krasna Hora, a village about five kilometers north of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk Oblast. "There are ongoing battles there," Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, told CNN. "We are keeping it under our control." Bakhmut remains the primary focus of the Russian aggression, according to Cherevatyi.

Germany has started to train Ukrainian soldiers on its Leopard 2 tanks, a government spokesperson told journalists on Monday.

Heavy bombardment from Moscow in Kherson has left four people dead, as Russian forces targeted the liberated southern region of Ukraine over the weekend. Five attacks since midnight killed one civilian, authorities said. That followed a Sunday in which Russian forces fired on Kherson 42 times with multiple rocket launchers, mortars, tanks, and a missile according to authorities, who said that three people were killed in the attacks.

The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut endured heavy artillery fire on Monday as the NATO chief backed reports from local officials that a major new Russian offensive had begun, days before the first anniversary of Moscow's invasion.

“Moldova's president accused Russia on Monday of planning to use foreign saboteurs to bring down her tiny country's leadership, stop it joining the European Union and use it in the war against Ukraine.

President Maia Sandu made her comments after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week his country had uncovered a Russian intelligence plan "for the destruction of Moldova", and days later the country's government resigned.

Sandu, whose country borders Ukraine, has repeatedly expressed concern about Moscow's intentions towards the former Soviet republic and about the presence of Russian troops in the breakaway Transdniestria region.

She said the plan involved citizens of Russia, Montenegro, Belarus and Serbia entering Moldova to try to spark protests in an attempt to "change the legitimate government to an illegal government controlled by the Russian Federation."

"The Kremlin's attempts to bring violence to Moldova will not work. Our main goal is the security of citizens and the state. Our goal is peace and public order in the country," Sandu told a news briefing.

Russia denied last year wanting to intervene in Moldova after authorities in Transdniestria said they had been targeted by a series of attacks.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby on Monday said reports of the plot had not been independently confirmed but were "deeply concerning" and "certainly not outside the bounds of Russian behaviour."”-via Reuters

“On Feb. 13, Ukraine denied Russia's earlier claim that it had seized control of Krasna Hora, a village about five kilometers north of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk Oblast.

"There are ongoing battles there," Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, told CNN. "We are keeping it under our control."

Bakhmut remains the primary focus of the Russian aggression, according to Cherevatyi.

"The enemy made 85 attacks in the Bakhmut sector," Cherevatyi said." There were 33 combat engagements. In the area of the city of Bakhmut, there were 25 attacks and 19 combat engagements."

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Feb. 13 that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has already started new offensive actions in Ukraine, "sending in thousands and thousands more troops."

"It is clear that we are in the race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition...must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield," Stoltenberg said, as quoted by the Financial Times.

Russian forces, along with the Kremlin-controlled mercenary group Wagner, have been attempting to capture Bakhmut for months.

Taking control of the town would let Moscow disrupt Ukraine's supply lines in the area and open up the main road leading to two other cities in the east — Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In early February, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported that Russian forces were using all their resources to encircle Bakhmut and launch an intense attack on the nearby town of Lyman. Despite these efforts, Maliar stated that Russia had not yet succeeded in surrounding Bakhmut.

On Feb. 7, the U.K. Defense Ministry said that Russia was advancing a few hundred meters every week, despite incurring significant losses, to achieve its goal of capturing the entire Donetsk Oblast, about half of which is currently occupied.

Ukraine's intelligence agency reports indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed his troops to seize the entire Donetsk Oblast by March.”-via Kyiv Independent

“Germany has started to train Ukrainian soldiers on its Leopard 2 tanks, a government spokesperson told journalists on Monday.

The training is taking place in the city of Munster in west Germany, and is scheduled to finish by the end of March when Germany is expected to deliver the tanks to Ukraine, according to the spokesperson.

Remember: The leaders of Germany and the US announced last month that they would send contingents of tanks to Ukraine, reversing their longstanding trepidation at providing Kyiv with offensive armored vehicles and unleashing powerful new tools in Ukraine’s efforts to retake territory seized by Russia.”-via CNN

“Heavy bombardment from Moscow in Kherson has left four people dead, as Russian forces targeted the liberated southern region of Ukraine over the weekend.

Five attacks since midnight killed one civilian, authorities said. That followed a Sunday in which Russian forces fired on Kherson 42 times with multiple rocket launchers, mortars, tanks, and a missile according to authorities, who said that three people were killed in the attacks.

“The enemy shells hit depots, a cinema and concert hall, the area near the regional administration building, and residential buildings,” the administration said.

Russian shelling has also damaged the rail line into Kherson city. Trains will terminate in Mykolaiv, to the west, for the next day or two while authorities fix the track, and passengers will be transferred to busses for the final stretch.”-via CNN

“The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut endured heavy artillery fire on Monday as the NATO chief backed reports from local officials that a major new Russian offensive had begun, days before the first anniversary of Moscow's invasion.

Ukrainian defenders, who have already held out for months, were braced for new ground attacks, Ukrainian military officials said.

Positions in Bakhmut have been fortified and only people with a military role were being allowed in, a deputy battalion commander said. Any civilians who still wanted to leave the city would have to brave the incoming fire, he said.

Bakhmut is a prime objective for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and its capture would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region and a rare victory after several months of setbacks. The Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the Donbas, Ukraine's industrial heartland, now partially occupied by Russia which wants full control.

"... The reality is we have seen the start (of a Russian offensive) already because we see now what Russia does now - President Putin does now - is to send thousands and thousands more troops, accepting a very high rate of casualty," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels.

The Russian assault on Bakhmut has been spearheaded by mercenaries of the Wagner group, who have made small but steady gains. The renewed Russian bombardments made the situation there even more acute.

"The city, the city's suburbs, the entire perimeter, and essentially the entire Bakhmut direction and Kostyantynivka are under crazy, chaotic shelling," said Volodymyr Nazarenko, deputy commander of Ukraine's Svoboda battalion.

Nazarenko said that, although no fighting was taking place in the city centre, the defenders were prepared to meet any assault.

"The city is a fortress, every position and every street there, almost every building, is a fortress," he said.

The Russian defence ministry said its troops had pushed forward a few kilometres along the frontlines, without specifying where.

The Ukrainian military reported Russian shelling all along the frontline and said 16 settlements had been bombarded near Bakhmut. It said that over the past day, its forces had repelled attacks near Bakhmut as well as assaults in the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions.”-via Reuters

#Daily Update #Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Bakhmut #kherson #Germany #Krasna Hora #Moldova

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