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readingsrantsrambles · 2 years

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Alone Together in Taipei

Max Nelson

Grasshopper Film

Lee Kang-sheng in Tsai Ming-liang’s Days, 2020

In 1997 the Taiwanese film and theater director Tsai Ming-liang premiered a movie called The River. It starred Lee Kang-sheng, who has had major parts in all eleven of Tsai’s feature films, as a young man living with his parents who develops agonizing, mysterious neck pains after visiting a film set and agreeing to play a floating corpse. Tsai’s previous two theatrical releases, Rebels of the Neon God (1992) and Vive L’Amour (1994), had been tense, entrancing portraits of young people rattling through Taipei’s streets, parks, arcades, restaurants, and apartment buildings, making brief contact and simmering in isolation. In both of those films, Lee plays a voyeuristic onlooker who follows an outlaw played by Chen Chao-jung and watches him have a fleeting love affair with an equally adrift woman. When we last see Lee in Vive L’Amour, he’s hiding under the bed and masturbating while the couple has sex above him, then slipping out and giving Chen’s sleeping character a kiss on the cheek.

The River carried the tone of those films past where many viewers were willing to follow it. “I was almost boycotted by the entire Taiwanese audience,” Tsai said in a 2003 interview with the critic Chris Fujiwara and the scholar Shujen Wang. At the core of the controversy was a single five-and-a-half-minute-long shot: a scene of inadvertent incest between Lee’s character and his father (Miao Tien) in a dimly lit gay bathhouse.

That scene was a breakthrough for one of Tsai’s career-long projects: emphasizing his characters’ material needs and hungers. The River is about “a family, a wife, husband, son,” he told Wang and Fujiwara. “But in their attitudes I make them go back to the very beginning, to zero. So they are just three bodies.” And yet what made that scene in the bathhouse so startling might have been what the scholar Rey Chow has since called its “reciprocal tenderness.”

The shot itself is beautiful, a high-contrast tableau spotlit from above and draped in shadow. For Tsai to reduce the people onscreen to “just three bodies” was not in this case to resign them to a bare or hollow life. It was to give them, in Chow’s words, “a different sensorium,” a frighteningly wide new range of ways to relate to one another. “It was precisely because they were anonymous,” Tsai said, “that the intimacy could take place.”

Intimacy in Tsai’s films is an elusive possession. The desire for it, however, is constant and concrete: it stings, itches, presses, burns. Tsai is best known among international audiences as a filmmaker of patient long takes, often without camera movement, and much of the energy in his movies comes from the friction between his unhurried, meticulously staged shots and what they document: aching scenes of closeness seized and lost. “If he didn’t hold his images fast,” the critic and filmmaker Jeff Reichert once wrote, “his characters and films might explode.”

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beyond-the-yellowbrickroad · 4 years

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movies watched in 2020 (part one)

1. Little Italy (2018) Directed by Donald Petrie

2. Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium (2007) Directed by Zach Helm

3. Super Size Me 2: Holy Chicken! (2017) Directed by Morgan Spurlock

4. Along Came Polly (2004) Directed by John Hamburg

5. Frozen II (2019) Directed by Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee

6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) Directed by Joachim Rønning

7. The Two Popes (2019) Directed by Fernando Meirelles

8. It Takes Two (1995) Directed by Andy Tennant

9. Last Christmas (2019) Directed by Paul Feig

10. Christine (2016) Directed by Antonio Campos

11. Head Over Heels (2001) Directed by Mark Waters

12. The Babysitter (2017) Directed by McG

13. Fry Day (2017) Directed by Laura Moss

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14. Hair Love (2019) Directed by Bruce W. Smith, Matthew A. Cherry & Everett Downing Jr.

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15. The Terminal (2004) Directed by Steven Spielberg

16. Bombshell (2019) Directed by Jay Roach

17. Thanks for Sharing (2012) Directed by Stuart Blumberg

18. The Edge of Democracy (2019) ‘Democracia em Vertigem’ Directed by Petra Costa

19. Klaus (2019) Directed by Sergio Pablos

20. Little Women (2019) Directed by Greta Gerwig

21. Life Overtakes Me (2019) Directed by Kristine Samuelson, John Haptas

22. The Lego Batman Movie (2017) Directed by Chris McKay

23. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2019) Directed by Marielle Heller

24. Simply Irresistible (1999) Directed by Mark Tarlov

25. Airplane Mode (2020) ‘Modo Avião’ Directed by César Rodrigues

26. American Factory (2019) Directed by Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert

BONUS

27. American Factory: A Short Conversation with the Obamas (2019) Directed by Julia Reichert

28. Jumanji: The Next Level (2019) Directed by Jake Kasdan

29. Cats (2019) Directed by Tom Hooper

30. Pain and Glory (2019) ‘Dolor y gloria’ Directed by Pedro Almodóvar

31. Missing Link (2019) Directed by Chris Butler

32. Nefta Football Club (2018) Directed by Yves Piat

33. Richard Jewell (2019) Directed by Clint Eastwood

34. Troop Zero (2019) Directed by Bert, Bertie

35. 1917 (2019) Directed by Sam Mendes

36. Labor Pains (2009) Directed by Lara Shapiro

37. Love Wrecked (2005) Directed by Randal Kleiser

38. I Lost My Body (2019) ‘J'ai Perdu Mon Corps’ Directed by Jérémy Clapin

39. Breakthrough (2019) Directed by Roxann Dawson

40. The Cave (2019) ‘غار’ Directed by Feras Fayyad

41. Corpus Christi (2019) ‘Boże Ciało’ Directed by Jan Komasa

42. For Sama (2019) Directed by Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts

43. Harriet (2019) Directed by Kasi Lemmons

44. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (2020) Directed by Cathy Yan

45. Ad Astra (2019) Directed by James Gray

46. To All the Boys: P.S. I Still Love You (2020) Directed by Michael Fimognari

47. Charlie’s Angels (2000) Directed by McG

48. Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle (2003) Directed by McG

49. Charlie’s Angels (2019) Directed by Elizabeth Banks

50. Overboard (2018) Directed by Rob Greenberg

51. Jenny Slate: Stage Fright (2019) Directed by Gillian Robespierre

52. The Rewrite (2014) Directed by Marc Lawrence

53. Looper (2012) Directed by Rian Johnson

54. Signs (2002) Directed by M. Night Shyamalan

55. Margaret (2011) Directed by Kenneth Lonergan

56. All the Bright Places (2020) Directed by Brett Haley

57. Beauty & the Briefcase (2010) Directed by Gil Junger

58. When in Rome (2010) Directed by Mark Steven Johnson

59. Beauty Shop (2005) Directed by Bille Woodruff

60. Vampires Suck (2010) Directed by Jason Friedberg, Aaron Seltzer

61. So Undercover (2012) Directed by Tom Vaughan

62. Think Like a Man (2012) Directed by Tim Story

63. Think Like a Man Too (2014) Directed by Tim Story

64. Sonic the Hedgehog (2020) Directed by Jeff Fowler

65. Across the Universe (2007) Directed by Julie Taymor

66. Bring It On Again (2004) Directed by Damon Santostefano

67. Bring It On: All or Nothing (2006) Directed by Steve Rash

68. The Invisible Man (2020) Directed by Leigh Whannell

69. The Hunt (2020) Directed by Craig Zobel

70. Step Sisters (2018) Directed by Charles Stone III

71. Swiped (2018) Directed by Ann Deborah Fishman

72. Just Friends (2005) Directed by Roger Kumble

73. Love Don’t Co$t a Thing (2003) Directed by Troy Byer

74. The Gentlemen (2019) Directed by Guy Ritchie

75. Onward (2020) Directed by Dan Scanlon

76. Dolittle (2020) Directed by Stephen Gaghan

77. Love Jacked (2018) Directed by Alfons Adetuyi

78. Two Night Stand (2014) Directed by Max Nichols

79. Hot Fuzz (2007) Directed by Edgar Wright

80. Nine Months (1995) Directed by Chris Columbus

81. Locke (2013) Directed by Steven Knight

82. The World’s End (2013) Directed by Edgar Wright

83. Imagine Me & You (2005) Directed by Ol Parker

84. Little Shop of Horrors (1986) Directed by Frank Oz

85. Bad Times at the El Royale (2018) Directed by Drew Goddard

86. Ibiza (2018) Directed by Alex Richanbach

87. Emma. (2020) Directed by Autumn de Wilde

88. Jexi (2019) Directed by Jon Lucas, Scott Moore

89. Airplane! (1980) Directed by Jerry Zucker, Jim Abrahams, David Zucker

90. The Half of It (2020) Directed by Alice Wu

91. The Wrong Missy (2020) Directed by Tyler Spindel

92. Possessor (2020) Directed by Brandon Cronenberg

93. Ingrid Goes West (2017) Directed by Matt Spicer

94. El Revenge (2017) ‘La Vingança’ Directed by Fernando Fraiha

95. Unfinished Business (2015) Directed by Ken Scott

96. Rough Night (2017) Directed by Lucia Aniello

97. Ben Platt: Live from Radio City Music Hall (2020) Directed by Alex Timbers, Sam Wrench

98. Miss Americana (2020) Directed by Lana Wilson

99. The Lovebirds (2020) Directed by Michael Showalter

100. Hannah Gadsby: Douglas (2020) Directed by Madeleine Parry

#movies watched in 2020 #part one

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carocinematv · 4 years

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BAFTA 2020

British Academy of Film and Television Arts, anche conosciuti come gli oscar britannici, premiano annualmente le migliori produzioni cinematografiche al Royal Albert Hall di Londra. Quest’anno la cerimonia si svolta il 2 febbraio 2020 ed è stata presentata dal celebre conduttore tv e comico irlandese Graham Norton. Sul red carpet gran parte dello star system e del jet-set UK e non solo, accanto a star internazionali ed i duchi di Cambridge, Kate e William, presenti al primo evento mondano all’indomani dell’addio alla casa reale del Principe Harry e della definitiva rottura con l’Unione Europea.

Tutto sommato è stato un inizio 2020 piuttosto caldo per la politica britannica, una serata glamour ed ampi sorrisi non può certo stonare. I premi assegnati sono stati tantissimi, tanto per cominciare il premio per il contributo al cinema britannico, un riconoscimento alla carriera si può ben dire, è andato ad Andy Serkis, il primo seduto a sinistra nella foto di gruppo dei vincitori. Alcuni film si sono confermati un successo internazionale, ottenendo il secondo riconoscimento, dopo i Golden Globe di appena un mese fa.

Tra questi, a trionfare sicuramente 1917, di Sam Mendes, che si è aggiudicato ben 7 statuette, accostando ai premi già vinti ai Golden Globe, la maschera dei BAFTA 2020 per miglior regia e miglior film. La giuria britannica non si è limitata a considerarlo come il miglior film (dell’anno) ma ha scelto di ampliare il parterre di elogio premiandolo come miglior film britannico, per la fotografia, gli effetti speciali, il sonoro e la scenografia. Insomma, se non l’avete ancora visto, correte!

Il film evento del 2019, made in Corea, Parasite nonostante la candidatura come miglior regia e miglior film (dell’anno), si conferma anche a Londra come miglior film straniero ed aggiunge sulla mensola il premio per la migliore sceneggiatura originale.

E’ l’anno di Joker interpretato da Joaquin Phoenix come miglior attore, che nei suoi ringraziamenti ha fatto notare l’assenza di meritevoli colleghi di colore nella schiera dei nominati. Il villain della DC Comics aveva ottenuto 4 candidature ai Golden Globe vincendone 2 (miglior attore e miglior colonna sonora), gli stessi ottenuti anche a Londra, seppure le nominations fossero ben 10.

Altra conferma da Los Angeles per la miglior attrice: confermata Renée Zellweger anche dai cugini britannici. La sua interpretazione in Judy completerebbe la tripletta dei premi più prestigiosi al mondo con l’Oscar del 9 febbraio! Idem anche Laura Dern in Storia di un matrimonio e Brad Pitt in C’era una volta a… Hollywood per i ruoli da non protagonisti.

C’è delusione per l’ultimo film di Quentin Tarantino, C’era una volta a… Hollywood, a Londra. Stessa sorte anche per Martin Scorsese che, nonostante le 10 nominations per The Irishman, torna a casa a mani vuote.

Torno a gioire per Klaus, il film d’animazione nuovamente vincitore! La produzione Netflix ha saputo dosare l’arte dell’animazione e la magia del Natale in un prodotto eccellente e meritevole di tanto prestigio. La conferma del successo anche al BAFTA 2020 è una riprova della crescita che il cinema spagnolo sta vivendo, grazie – e soprattutto #imho – alla presenza del colosso mondiale dello streaming.

La mia personale delusione è per Piccole Donne, l’adattamento e la regia di Greta Gerwig avrebbe certamente meritato molto più del solo premio al miglior costume. La concorrenza è spietata sul fronte interpretativo (nominations per: miglior attrice protagonista per Saoirse Ronan, non protagonista per Florence Pugh) ma continuo a pensare che Piccole Donne non abbia rivali per colonna sonora di Alexander Desplat, BAFTA 2020 invece vinto da Hildur Guðnadóttir per Joker e sceneggiatura non originale della Gerwig, vinto da Taika Waititi per Jojo Rabbit.

Nell’attesa dell’ultima e più importante tornata di premi Oscar di domenica 9 Febbraio, lascio la lista completa di nominati e vincitori dei BAFTA 2020 per futura memoria:

MIGLIOR FILM

1917 THE IRISHMAN JOKER C’ERA UNA VOLTA…A HOLLYWOOD PARASITE

MIGLIORI FILM BRITANNICI

1917 BAIT – L’ESCA FOR SAMA ROCKETMAN SORRY WE MISSED YOU I DUE PAPI

MIGLIOR DEBUTTO PER UNO SCENEGGIATORE, REGISTA O PRODUTTORE BRITANNICO

BAIT Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers) FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director) MAIDEN Alex Holmes (Director) ONLY YOU Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director) RETABLO Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)

MIGLIOR FILM NON IN LINGUA INGLESE

PARASITE Bong Joon-ho THE FAREWELL Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts PAIN AND GLORY Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur

MIGLIOR DOCUMENTARIO

FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts AMERICAN FACTORY Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert APOLLO 11 Todd Douglas Miller DIEGO MARADONA Asif Kapadia THE GREAT HACK Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime

MIGLIOR FILM D’ANIMAZIONE

KLAUS Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh FROZEN 2 Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley TOY STORY 4 Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen

MIGLIOR REGISTA

1917 Sam Mendes THE IRISHMAN Martin Scorsese JOKER Todd Phillips C’ERA UNA VOLTA…A HOLLYWOOD Quentin Tarantino PARASITE Bong Joon-ho

MIGLIOR SCENEGGIATURA ORIGINALE

PARASITE Han Jin Won, Bong Joon-ho BOOKSMART Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman KNIVES OUT Rian Johnson STORIA DI UN MATRIMONIO Noah Baumbach C’ERA UNA VOLTA…A HOLLYWOOD Quentin Tarantino

MIGLIOR SCENEGGIATURA NON ORIGINALE

JOJO RABBIT Taika Waititi THE IRISHMAN Steven Zaillian JOKER Todd Phillips, Scott Silver PICCOLE DONNE Greta Gerwig THE TWO POPES Anthony McCarten

MIGLIOR ATTRICE PROTAGONISTA

RENÉE ZELLWEGER Judy JESSIE BUCKLEY Wild Rose SCARLETT JOHANSSON Storia di un Matrimonio SAOIRSE RONAN Piccole Donne CHARLIZE THERON Bombshell

MIGLIOR ATTORE PROTAGONISTA

JOAQUIN PHOENIX Joker LEONARDO DICAPRIO Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood ADAM DRIVER Storia di un Matrimonio TARON EGERTON Rocketman JONATHAN PRYCE I due Papi

MIGLIOR ATTRICE NON PROTAGONISTA

LAURA DERN Storia di un matrimonio SCARLETT JOHANSSON Jojo Rabbit FLORENCE PUGH Piccole Donne MARGOT ROBBIE Bombshell MARGOT ROBBIE Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

MIGLIORE ATTORE NON PROTAGONISTA

BRAD PITT Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood TOM HANKS Un Amico Straordinario ANTHONY HOPKINS I due Papi AL PACINO The Irishman JOE PESCI The Irishman

MIGLIORI MUSICHE ORIGINALI

JOKER Hildur Guđnadóttir 1917 Thomas Newman JOJO RABBIT Michael Giacchino PICCOLE DONNE Alexandre Desplat STAR WARS: L’ASCESA DI SKYWALKER John Williams

CASTING

JOKER Shayna Markowitz STORIA DI UN MATRIMONIO Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler C’ERA UNA VOLTA…A HOLLYWOOD Victoria Thomas THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD Sarah Crowe I DUE PAPI Nina Gold

MIGLIOR FOTOGRAFIA

1917 Roger Deakins THE IRISHMAN Rodrigo Prieto JOKER Lawrence Sher LE MANS ’66 Phedon Papamichael THE LIGHTHOUSE Jarin Blaschke

MIGLIOR MONTAGGIO

LE MANS ’66 Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker THE IRISHMAN Thelma Schoonmaker JOJO RABBIT Tom Eagles JOKER Jeff Groth ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD Fred Raskin

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1917 Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales THE IRISHMAN Bob Shaw, Regina Graves JOJO RABBIT Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková JOKER Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran C’ERA UNA VOLTA…A HOLLYWOOD Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh

COSTUME DESIGN

PICCOLE DONNE Jacqueline Durran THE IRISHMAN Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell JOJO RABBIT Mayes C. Rubeo JUDY Jany Temime C’ERA UNA VOLTA…A HOLLYWOOD Arianne Phillips

MIGLIOR TRUCCO E PARRUCCO

BOMBSHELL Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan 1917 Naomi Donne JOKER Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann JUDY Jeremy Woodhead ROCKETMAN Lizzie Yianni Georgiou

MIGLIORI EFFETTI SONORI

1917 Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson JOKER Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic LE MANS ’66 David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester ROCKETMAN Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan STAR WARS: L’ASCESA DI SKYWALKER David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood

MIGLIORI EFFETTI SPECIALI

1917 Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy AVENGERS: ENDGAME Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick THE IRISHMAN Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman IL RE LEONE Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez STAR WARS: L’ASCESA DI SKYWALKER Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy

MIGLIORI CORTI D’ANIMAZIONE BRITANNICI

GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC. Maryam Mohajer IN HER BOOTS Kathrin Steinbacher THE MAGIC BOAT Naaman Azhari, Lilia Laurel

MIGLIORI CORTOMETRAGGI

LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva AZAAR Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring GOLDFISH Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill KAMALI Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad THE TRAP Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald

EE RISING STAR AWARD

Si tratta del premio per stelle nascenti in ambito artistico, assegnato con voto del pubblico

MICHEAL WARD AWKWAFINA JACK LOWDEN KAITLYN DEVER KELVIN HARRISON JR.

#british academy of film and television arts #bafta 2020 #jojo rabbit #piccole donne #1917 #the irishman #cinema #cinema industry

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bongaboi · 4 years

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92nd Academy Awards: The List. (2/4)

Best Original Screenplay

Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won

Knives Out – Rian Johnson

Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach

1917 – Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens

The Irishman – Steven Zaillian based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt

Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver based on characters created by Bill Finger, Bob Kane, and Jerry Robinson

Little Women – Greta Gerwig based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott

The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten based on his play The Pope

Best Animated Feature Film

Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – Dean DeBlois, Bonnie Arnold, and Brad Lewis

I Lost My Body – Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice

Klaus – Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, and Marisa Román

Missing Link – Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner, and Travis Knight

Best International Feature Film

Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – directed by Bong Joon-ho

Corpus Christi (Poland) in Polish – directed by Jan Komasa

Honeyland (North Macedonia) in Turkish and Macedonian[9] – directed by Tamara Kotevska and Ljubomir Stefanov

Les Misérables (France) in French – directed by Ladj Ly

Pain and Glory (Spain) in Spanish – directed by Pedro Almodóvar

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert

The Cave – Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod, and Sigrid Dyekjær

The Edge of Democracy – Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, and Tiago Pavan

For Sama – Waad Al-Kateab and Edward Watts

Honeyland – Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev

Best Documentary Short Subject

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva

In the Absence – Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam

Life Overtakes Me – John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson

St. Louis Superman – Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan

Walk Run Cha-Cha – Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt

Best Live Action Short Film

The Neighbors' Window – Marshall Curry

Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon

Nefta Football Club – Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi

Saria – Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre

A Sister – Delphine Girard

Best Animated Short Film

Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver

Dcera (Daughter) – Daria Kashcheeva

Kitbull – Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson

Memorable – Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre

Sister – Siqi Song

#2020 #academy awards #oscars

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tocinephile · 4 years

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The Morning After - The Year the Oscars Got it (mostly) Right Edition

The 92nd Academy Awards kicked off looking an awful lot like the Grammy’s with a splashy musical performance by Janelle Monae and Billy Porter, the first of a night’s performances/presenters/commentary designed to include all the groups it seemingly excluded in it’s nominees list. Meant to poke fun at themselves or a gesture delivered a little too overt and a little too late? Either way, I think in the end, the artistry of the South Korean-made foreign language film that swept the night’s awards won one back for every group that was overlooked.

Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite took home awards for Best Original Screenplay, Best International Feature, Best Director, and Best Picture, making it the first South Korean film to win in all these categories. To do it all in a single evening is astounding.

Here’s a look at all the winners of the night:

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Best Picture:

“Ford v Ferrari” — Walt Disney “The Irishman” — Netflix “Jojo Rabbit” — Fox Searchlight “Joker” — Warner Bros. “Little Women” — Sony Pictures Releasing “Marriage Story” — Netflix “1917” — Universal/Amblin Partners “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — Sony Pictures Releasing “Parasite” — Neon (WINNER)

Most deserving win of the night!!! Of course many of us hoped Parasite could be the underdog to win it all, but a more realistic prediction to win would be 1917. Thrilled to be wrong on this one.

Also, while I liked 1917 (more for its execution than story), even if Parasite had not been in the mix, I would have been rooting for The Irishman to win.

Lead Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet” Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story” Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women” Charlize Theron, “Bombshell” Renée Zellweger, “Judy” (WINNER)

I am also in full agreement with this category and with Renee sweeping this category this awards season as well.

I have not seen Harriet, but if Renee hadn’t been in the race, Charlize would have been the best of the bunch.

Lead Actor:

Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory” Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” Adam Driver, “Marriage Story” Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” — (WINNER) Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

Again, no question this was the right winner. If only every win didn’t mean we’d have to roll the dice to see what kind of acceptance speech we’d have to endure... While I didn’t appreciate being chastised for adding milk to my coffee, Joaquin closed out his remarks by quoting his late brother River and I thought that was beautiful.

Director:

Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman” Todd Phillips, “Joker” Sam Mendes, “1917” Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite” — (WINNER)

Another category that I thought the Academy would give to Sam Mendes, but nonetheless put my bets on Bong Joon-ho. Some big competition in this category (except Phillips... sorry, I’m not saying he’s bad, but he has yet to prove to me he’s a contender).

Original Song:

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” “Toy Story 4” “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” “Rocketman” — (WINNER) “I’m Standing With You,” “Breakthrough” “Into the Unknown,” “Frozen 2” “Stand Up,” “Harriet”

Talk about a year of forgettable film songs. I think I left the room for every one of these performances except Elton’s. Did I miss anything?

Original Score:

“Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir — (WINNER) “Little Women,” Alexandre Desplat “Marriage Story,” Randy Newman “1917,” Thomas Newman “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams

As part of the montage for this category, the orchestra accompanies with each film’s original score. This segment, as they proudly pointed out, was being conducted a female for the first time in Oscar history (I’d like to shallowly add that she was also wearing the most amazing gold jacket to do it!). Now I don’t know if she also arranged it or whether she was just conducting, but I have to say, I don’t think the arrangement did the scores any justice whatsoever.

Luckily they were not being judged on this particular performance, and Hildur Guonadottir once again took home the accolade for Joker. I agree with this win. Little Women and 1917 also had impressive scores. Marriage Story didn’t particularly catch my attention, and while Star Wars’ themes will always be among my all time favourites, The Rise of Skywalker wasn’t particularly outstanding out of the saga.

Best International Feature Film:

“Corpus Christi,” Jan Komasa “Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov “Les Miserables,” Ladj Ly “Pain and Glory,” Pedro Almodóvar “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho — (WINNER)

If anyone else had won we would have rioted right?

Makeup and Hair:

“Bombshell” — (WINNER) “Joker” “Judy” “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil” “1917”

Got this prediction correct, while not the most obvious frontrunner perhaps, a lot of subtle effort was put in to transform cast into their characters.

Visual Effects:

“Avengers: Endgame” “The Irishman” “The Lion King” “1917” — (WINNER) “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

It’s naive of me, but seeing 1917 win for Visual Effects almost takes away from my appreciation of the film in some ways because in my head, I’d still like to think of all films outside of fantasy and sci-fi as largely real. I know it’s not the case and that even your average period drama is created largely with effects these days, it can’t help but ruin the magic a little.

Also I had guessed Avengers: Endgame would win.

And we all think that The Irishman is on this list for de-aging technologies alone right?

Film Editing:

“Ford v Ferrari,” Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland — (WINNER) “The Irishman,” Thelma Schoonmaker “Jojo Rabbit,” Tom Eagles “Joker,” Jeff Groth “Parasite,” Jinmo Yang

This entire list is on par with each other I think, with Ford v Ferrari just edging out the rest. Also the editing is what made the film so dynamic, there was little room for a bad cut, whereas the others might have little bit more room to err.

Many might disagree but I think Little Women should have been considered in this category. The film’s editing choices was one of its main criticisms, but I think it actually made the film much more dynamic and differentiated it from previous adaptations. (If only they’d used a bit more of The Irishman’s aging/de-aging effects)

Cinematography:

“The Irishman,” Rodrigo Prieto “Joker,” Lawrence Sher “The Lighthouse,” Jarin Blaschke “1917,” Roger Deakins — (WINNER) “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Robert Richardson

Agree! Cool camera work in 1917 for sure.

Sound Mixing:

“Ad Astra” “Ford v Ferrari” “Joker” “1917” — (WINNER) “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Um ok, if you’re going to split the sound categories between two films. I would’ve said Ford v Ferrari for both.

Sound Editing:

“Ford v Ferrari,” Don Sylvester — (WINNER) “Joker,” Alan Robert Murray “1917,” Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Wylie Stateman “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” Matthew Wood, David Acord

Agree. Hopefully everyone who wanted to see this film caught it in theatres, the sound was a huge contributing factor to the enjoyment of this film.

Supporting Actress:

Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell” Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” — (WINNER) Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit” Florence Pugh, “Little Women” Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Little surprise when Laura Dern swept this category, even though I maintain she wasn’t better than the rest. That said, I’m not sure who I would pick in her place, I say share the love between Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, and Florence Pugh (yes, I just said Amy March should get an oscar... I see the irony of this too)

Best Documentary Short Subject:

“In the Absence,” Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone,” Carol Dysinger — (WINNER) “Life Overtakes Me,” Kristine Samuelson and John Haptas “St. Louis Superman,” Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan “Walk Run Cha-Cha,” Laura Nix

I didn’t see any of the shorts this year, my bad. The winner sounds hella interestering!

Best Documentary Feature:

“American Factory,” Julia Reichert, Steven Bognar — (WINNER) “The Cave,” Feras Fayyad “The Edge of Democracy,” Petra Costa “For Sama,” Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts “Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov

I only saw American Factory and The Cave and I actually liked The Cave better. That said I felt strongly that American Factory had the edge, for starters it was backed by the Obamas’ production company. I didn’t love American Factory but I do feel it’s a timely piece that shows two sides of the story, inevitable prejudices based on what we’ve become conditioned to physically, mentally, socially, and also how important it is that we try to overcome or build a bridge to find solutions for the greater good.

Costume Design:

”The Irishman,” Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson “Jojo Rabbit,” Mayes C. Rubeo “Joker,” Mark Bridges “Little Women,” Jacqueline Durran — (WINNER) “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Arianne Phillips

For a historical drama, I really didn’t find the costumes of Little Women to be that spectacular (I’m having visions of The Age of Innocence when you say Best Costume), though a part of me knows the period films win more often than not. While I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is strong contender, Jojo Rabbit should have won.

Production Design:

“The Irishman,” Bob Shaw and Regina Graves “Jojo Rabbit,” Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova “1917,” Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh (WINNER) “Parasite,” Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram and Cho Hee

Yes! Once Upon a Time was a bit overrated (sorry Quentin) but this was one category where it really deserved to win, from the western sets, film studio lots, to the wardrobe and streets of the 60′s, lots of fun and spirit captured in the production design.

Best Live Action Short Film:

“Brotherhood,” Meryam Joobeur “Nefta Football Club,” Yves Piat “The Neighbors’ Window,” Marshall Curry — (WINNER) “Saria,” Bryan Buckley “A Sister,” Delphine Girard

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian “Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi — (WINNER) “Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver “Little Women,” Greta Gerwig “The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten

I love that Taika Waititi is an Oscar winner. Also shouts to Greta Gerwig for making Little Women almost tolerable in her script! The Two Popes could not have been an easy adaptation either. Now can a comic book expert please tell me, how much of Joker is really from existing stories in comics, and how much was filled in by the writers? I understand why it was an adapted screenplay, but I feel like material like this almost completely open to interpretation and could easily be written anew as an original screenplay.

Original Screenplay:

“Knives Out,” Rian Johnson “Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach “1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho, Jin Won Han — (WINNER)

Just for fun, my ranking of the original screenplay nominees from best to alright:

1) Parasite, 2) Knives Out, 3) Marriage Story, 4) 1917, 5) Once Upon a Time

Animated Short:

“Dcera,” Daria Kashcheeva “Hair Love,” Matthew A. Cherry — (WINNER) “Kitbull,” Rosana Sullivan “Memorable,” Bruno Collet “Sister,” Siqi Song

I keep hearing great things about this short!

Animated Feature:

“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” Dean DeBlois “I Lost My Body,” Jeremy Clapin “Klaus,” Sergio Pablos “Missing Link,” Chris Butler “Toy Story 4,” Josh Cooley — (WINNER)

I clearly didn’t watch any animated films this year because I didn’t even know there were new How to Train Your Dragon and Toy Story films released.

Supporting Actor:

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes” Al Pacino, “The Irishman” Joe Pesci, “The Irishman” Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — (WINNER)

Overall, if Brad Pitt sweeping this category means I get to hear at least one great speech per awards, then I’m ok with this. My personal ranking:

1) Al Pacino, 2) Joe Pesci, 3) Tom Hanks, 4) Brad Pitt, 5) Anthony Hopkins. I had to debate over Pacino and Pesci’s performances, I feel like this is one of the best problems in the world.

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Prior to the start of the show, I made a mess of notes about who I thought would win, who I thought should win, and shared my Oscar Pool Picks which were based on a mix of the two... My Oscar pool are an extremely knowledgeable bunch, and with 18/24, it only put me in a 3-way tie for third place (there were also three winners who split the winnings), I need to move back to the baby leagues!

If you were following my Twitter (or care to check in hindsight...@palindr0me) I also shared a little additional commentary and photos of some of my favourite dresses of the evening.

My personal top 3 moments during the Awards Ceremony were:

1) Every time Parasite won an award - Give this man all the statues he wants! lol

2) Billie Eilish’s rendition of Yesterday (I wish this was an actual recorded track so I could play it over and over)

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3) When Eminem took the stage at the end of a montage to perform “Lose Yourself” and my phone exploded with all these messages of “ Whaaat is happening???” LOL! Believe me friends, I was as confused as you were.

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Aaand, that’s a wrap on awards season! Looking forward to a new year and new decade in film!

#oscars #oscars2020

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malefashiontrends · 4 years

Photo

Jeff Reichert y su acompañante, de las primeras parejas en lucir el blanco y negro en la red carpet de los #EEBAFTAs #BAFTAs #RedCarpet #AlfombraRoja http://bit.ly/38YUhlY

#EEBAFTAs #BAFTA #Red Carpet

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badgaymovies · 4 years

Video

youtube

Today's review on MyOldAddiction.com, American Factory by #StevenBognar and #JuliaReichert, "tears through all polite double-speak and presents its case with shocking frankness" STEVEN BOGNAR, JULIA REICHERT Bil's rating (out of 5): BBBB. USA, 2019. Higher Ground Productions…

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jersonordavid · 6 years

Photo

365 Films Part 6: 260/365

Field of Vision: American Carnage

#365Films #Field of Vision #American Carnage #Farihah Zaman #Jeff Reichert #Stephen Bannon

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fromthe-point · 5 years

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ECHL Transactions - Mar.30

Adirondack Thunder: Jacob Reichert, F || placed on reserve Conor Riley, F || placed on injured reserve (effective 3.170 Ryan Walker, F || signed contract, added to active roster

Allen Americans: Nick Boka, D || signed ATO, added to active roster [3.29] Dalton Thrower, D || placed on reserve [3/29]

Cincinnati Cyclones: Eric Knodel, D || activated from reserve

Florida Everblades: Just Auger, F || activated from injured reserve Michael Neville, F || placed on injured reserve (effective 3.18) Nathan Perkovich, F || placed on reserve [3.29] Mitch Vandergunst, F || activated from reserve [3.29]; placed on reserve

Fort Wayne Komets: Craig Cescon, D || placed on reserve Reid Jackman, F || placed on reserve Cam Knight, D || signed contract, added to active roster Trey Phillips, D || activated from reserve

Idaho Steelheads: Alexander Dahl, F || activated from injured reserve [3.29] Mitch Moroz, F || placed on reserve [3.29]; activated from reserve Robbie Payne, F || placed on reserve

Maine Mariners: Josh Couturier, D || activated from reserve Blake Kessel, D || placed on reserve

Norfolk Admirals: Ludlow Harris, D || placed on injured reserve (effective 3.16) Connor Hurley, F || placed on reserve Darian Romanko, F || signed to ATO, added to active roster J.R. Wojciechowski, D || signed contract, released from ATO

Orlando Solar Bears: Shaquille Merasty, F || activated from reserve Brent Pedersen, F || placed on reserve

Reading Royals: Michael Huntebrinker, F || recalled by Lehigh Valley (AHL)

South Carolina Stingrays: Patrick Gaul, F || activated from injured reserve John MacLeod, D || placed on reserve Pat Megannety, F || placed on injured reserve (effective 3.18)

Toledo Walleye: Kaden Fulcher, G || recalled to Grand Rapids (AHL) by Detroit (NHL) Jeff Lerg, G || added as EBUG Charlie O’Connor, F || placed on reserve Jordan Topping, F || activated from reserve

Wheeling Nailers: Renars Krastenbergs, F || assigned by Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL) Mike Fazio, F || activated from reserve Mark Petaccio, F || placed on injured reserve (effective 3.30) Trevor Yates, F || placed on reserve

Wichita Thunder: Michael Turner, F || signed contract, added to active roster [3.29]

#echl #ahl #hockey #t:info #s:transactions #s:contract #s:prospects

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thepoliticalpatient · 6 years

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What Doug Jones’s win means for healthcare

Democrat Doug Jones wins the special election in ALABAMA for a seat in the Senate!!! This is a very happy post that I never dreamed I’d get the chance to write.

There’s a lot that could be said about this and what it means for our political climate in general, but I’ll leave that to other blogs and news outlets who will write on it plenty. I want to talk about what flipping this seat means for healthcare!!

The only remaining plausible path to defeating the tax bill just opened up.

The tax bill became a healthcare bill when Senate Republicans decided to put a repeal of the ACA’s individual mandate into it, a move that is estimated to take health insurance away from 13 million people, resulting in 16 thousand deaths per year. It passed a preliminary vote in the Senate 51-49 a couple weeks ago, with just one Republican Senator - Bob Corker (R-TN) - defecting.

The Republicans’ majority has just gotten that much more narrow - 51-49 now - which means that, once Jones takes office, reconciliation bills will be able to be defeated with just 2 Republican defectors. Assuming Corker stays a no vote, this means that losing just Susan Collins would now be enough to kill this tax bill.

This is good news for us, because it’s looking increasingly likely that Collins may indeed defect. She was a holdout until she secured a few assurances from McConnell - that measures would be taken to stabilize the individual market, including reinsurance and restoring the cost sharing reduction payments killed earlier this year by Trump. McConnell promised her these, and so she cast her yes vote. But House Republicans are saying they won’t vote for any such stabilization bill. Now we are left to wonder - will Susan Collins acknowledge that the stabilization she requested is very unlikely to occur, and if so, will she retract her yes vote? If she does, this bill is DEAD in a post-Strange Senate.

But all of this only holds true if the vote happens after Jones takes office. And so…

McConnell and Ryan will start trying to shove the tax bill up our asses as fast as they can.

Jones doesn’t take office until early January, most likely, so McConnell and Ryan will start going into overdrive to pass the tax bill before then. Their success in doing so is still a very real possibility. So here’s what we must do:

Call Susan Collins and ask her to keep her word. She said she wouldn’t vote for tax reform unless she got market stabilization. The stabilization bill is not going to get through the House. She must acknowledge this and then keep her word.

Call your Republican Senators and remind them of the consequences of rushing legislation. The first version of the tax bill that was voted on contained a very significant mistake. Nobody noticed because nobody had time to read the bill before voting. Encourage them to prevent future embarrassing events such as these by following regular procedure, holding hearings, and generally slowing the fuck down.

Call Lisa Murkowski and remind her that taking healthcare away from 13M is just as bad now as it was in July when she voted against it. Lisa Murkowski voted against skinny repeal in July, but now all of a sudden she’s for it, and I have no idea what the fuck happened.

Call your Democratic Senators and urge them to use every delaying tactic they can. They can’t filibuster a budget reconciliation vote, but maybe there are still some tricks up their sleeves.

Call key House Republicans and ask them to flip their votes. Another path to defeating the tax bill is flipping 11 House votes. It’s a longshot, but it’s worth a mention.

Here’s the info:

Susan Collins: (202) 224-2523 Lisa Murkowski: (202) 224-6665 Key House Republicans: CA-10 Jeff Denham - 202-225-4520 CA-21 David Vladao - 202-225-4695 CA-25 Steve Knight - 202-225-1956 CA-39 Ed Royce - 202-225-4111 CA-45 Mimi Walters - 202-225-5611 CA-49 Darrell Issa - 202-225-3906 CO-06 Mike Coffman - 202-225-7882 FL-26 Carlos Curbelo - 202-225-2778 FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - 202-225-3931 IA-01 Rod Blum - 202-225-2911 NY-22 Claudia Tenney - 202-225-3665 NY-24 John Katko - 202-225-3701 PA-06 Ryan Costello - 202-225-4315 PA-08 Brian Fitzpatrick - 202-225-4276 PA-15 Charlie Dent - 202-225-6411 TX-23 Will Hurd - 202-225-4511 VA-10 Barbara Comstock - 202-225-5136 WA-03 Jaime Herrera Beutler - 202-225-3536 WA-08 Dave Reichert - 202-225-7761

Finally,

Let’s give credit where it’s due.

Doug Jones won because Black voters showed up in record numbers and voted for him at a rate of 90%+. Our Black brothers and sisters are responsible for this awesome win, while our sorry white asses voted for Moore at a rate of 70%.

—

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/01/politics/alabama-senate-scenarios-roy-moore/index.html

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/12/16761514/doug-jones-win-tax-reform

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/

#doug jones #roy moore #alabama #special election #senate #tax bill #sneaky repeal #skinny repeal #essay post #healthcare #aca #affordable care act #obamacare #trumpcare #call to action

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theliberaltony · 6 years

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

When candidate filing closed at 4:30 p.m. Central last Friday in Louisiana, we shut the book on the marathon phase one of the 2018 midterms: The deadline to run for federal office as a major-party candidate has officially passed in all 50 states. That means that — barring any last-minute withdrawals — we now have a final list of every member of Congress who is retiring this year. It’s a list that speaks to Republicans’ vulnerability in the midterm elections and includes many of the GOP’s most prominent anti-Trump voices, but it’s also one that doesn’t look too different from the Republican caucus as a whole.

Depending on how you count,1 39 Republicans and 18 Democrats are not running for re-election. That includes 13 Republicans and 10 Democrats who are leaving to seek another office, such as governor. Excluding them, 26 Republicans and eight Democrats are walking away from their political careers at the end of the 115th Congress. That’s the most “pure” retirements by Republicans — and the fewest by Democrats — since the 2008 election.

‘Pure’ retirements by party since 1974

The number of senators and representatives who declined to seek re-election, excluding those leaving to run for other offices, along with the overall election outcome

Retiring Seat Swing in Election Election Cycle Democrats Republicans Senate House 2018 8 26 ? ? 2016 10 20 D+2 D+6 2014 15 16 R+9 R+13 2012 21 14 D+2 D+8 2010 14 13 R+6 R+63 2008 3 27 D+8 D+21 2006 6 9 D+6 D+30 2004 10 13 R+4 R+3 2002 7 16 R+2 R+8 2000 7 18 D+4 D+3 1998 15 11 — D+5 1996 28 18 R+2 D+9 1994 25 9 R+8 R+52 1992 35 23 — R+10 1990 5 9 D+1 D+8 1988 10 10 — D+2 1986 10 13 D+8 D+5 1984 4 9 D+2 R+14 1982 13 12 R+1 D+26 1980 20 11 R+12 R+34 1978 28 13 R+3 R+15 1976 24 11 — D+1 1974 16 21 D+5 D+48

Members who resigned or died before the election are not counted. Independents are counted as members of the party with which they caucused.

Sources: Roll Call, Ballotpedia, Center for Responsive Politics, The American Presidency Project

In fact, the 26 pure Republican retirements represent the fifth-biggest exodus of any party in any election going back to 1974.2 Luckily for the GOP, there isn’t a particularly strong relationship between how a party performs in the general election and its number of pure retirements. Still, that’s not exactly a stat you’re thrilled with if you’re a Republican. Because incumbents enjoy an electoral bonus, each open seat makes it a little bit harder to hold a majority.

Who are those 26 Republicans? They include three U.S. senators and 23 members of the House of Representatives.3 Some are moderates; some are dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. Some vote in lockstep with President Trump; others regularly defy him. Some occupy safe seats; others may be retiring to avoid the embarrassment of being shown the door by voters.

The final list of ‘pure’ Republican retirements

Characteristics of Republican politicians who are leaving politics after 2018

Member Seat Trump Score DW-Nominate Score Seat’s Partisan Lean Jeff Flake Arizona 83.1% 0.855 R+7 Bob Corker Tennessee 83.6 0.395 R+27 Orrin Hatch Utah 96.0 0.382 R+28 Ed Royce CA-39 97.6 0.659 D+3 Darrell Issa CA-49 92.7 0.506 D+1 Dennis Ross FL-15 97.6 0.529 R+11 Tom Rooney FL-17 97.5 0.458 R+27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen FL-27 69.2 0.245 D+14 Lynn Jenkins KS-02 96.4 0.523 R+20 Dave Trott MI-11 98.8 0.372 R+7 Gregg Harper MS-03 98.8 0.384 R+26 Frank LoBiondo NJ-02 81.2 0.211 R+4 Rodney Frelinghuysen NJ-11 90.4 0.291 R+5 Ryan Costello PA-06* 95.1 0.216 D+5 Bill Shuster PA-13* 98.8 0.374 R+45 Trey Gowdy SC-04 97.6 0.659 R+28 John J. Duncan Jr. TN-02 78.6 0.601 R+38 Ted Poe TX-02 91.3 0.595 R+16 Sam Johnson TX-03 93.5 0.610 R+21 Jeb Hensarling TX-05 95.3 0.703 R+31 Joe Barton TX-06 91.6 0.528 R+16 Lamar Smith TX-21 96.4 0.425 R+16 Tom Garrett VA-05 78.8 0.974 R+13 Bob Goodlatte VA-06 95.3 0.495 R+26 Dave Reichert WA-08 91.5 0.223 D+0.1 Paul Ryan WI-01 95.0 0.556 R+11 Average (House retirements only) 92.1 0.484 R+15 Average of all other House Republicans 93.1 0.490 R+24

A seat’s partisan lean is the average difference between how it voted and how the country voted overall in the past two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.

* Pennsylvania’s congressional map was redrawn in the middle of the 2018 election cycle; districts and partisan leans shown are for the new districts.

Sources: Daily Kos Elections, Roll Call, CNN, VoteView

When we first looked at patterns in pure Republican retirements in November 2017 — a time when only 13 Republicans had called it quits — retiring Republicans had noticeably lower Trump scores (our in-house measure of how often each member of Congress votes with the president) and DW-Nominate scores (a quantification of a politician’s ideology, where 1 is the most conservative and -1 is the most liberal) than their nonretiring Republican colleagues. But now, the pool of pure retirees looks a lot more representative of the GOP caucus as a whole. House Republicans4 who are retiring from politics have an average DW-Nominate score of 0.484; that’s little different from your average Republican in the rest of the lower chamber, who would score a 0.490. The mean Trump score of House retirees is 92.1 percent; the rest of the GOP caucus averages out to 93.1 percent. In sum, pure Republican retirees are still slightly more moderate and less supportive of Trump than their colleagues who are on the ballot in 2018, but the differences are pretty small — certainly not as sizable as they appeared to be back in November, when a narrative prematurely formed that Republicans were retiring because they were fed up with a toxic political environment.

Another theory of retirements from the fall holds up better. Pure retirements are indeed taking place in districts that, on average, are significantly more competitive than your normal GOP-held district. The average FiveThirtyEight partisan lean5 of the 23 House districts whose incumbents are throwing in the towel is R+15, or 15 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole. The other 213 Republican-held districts average out to R+24. So there may still be something to the idea that many Republicans are finding retirement a more appealing option than a grueling re-election campaign. (The idea that politicians retire when they think they might lose also has some support in political science.)

Our November analysis also found that being a member of the Tuesday Group (a faction of moderate Republicans) or a term-limited committee or subcommittee chair was highly correlated with retiring from elected office. (Only one of the 13 pure Republican retirees at the time did not fit into one of those two categories.) That has also become less true as the list of retirees has filled out. The final tallies: Eight of the GOP’s 23 pure retirees from the House are members of the Tuesday Group, and nine of 23 are staring down the barrel of losing a powerful chairmanship in 2019. That helps explain why our effort in November to divine which Republicans would be next to retire — based largely on Tuesday Group membership and committee term limits — fell flat; we were correct on only two (and a half) out of 16 names.6 Instead, factors like scandal, age and the demands of the House speakership sent people who didn’t fit the pattern to the showers.

Of course, now that candidate filing is over, the question of what would drive Republicans to retire is mostly academic; there are no more tea leaves to read. But retirements are still important because they provide an early, partial answer to the question most people are waiting until Election Day to answer: Who will legislate on behalf of the Republican Party in 2019 and beyond? The answer isn’t pretty for the center-right. Four of the 13 most moderate Republican representatives (going by DW-Nominate) will not be returning to Congress next year — just because of retirements. At least six of the 15 most anti-Trump Republican House members (going by Trump scores) will be gone.7 And the Tuesday Group will lose at least 23 percent (10 of 44) of its publicly known members — far more if Democrats have a good election night. Just because Republicans are retiring across every wing of the party doesn’t mean a given wing won’t feel disproportionate effects.

Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2018 midterms.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nathaniel Rakich

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