What's Happening in China? The November 2022 Protests
Hello! I know that there's so much going on in the world right now, so not everyone may be aware of what is happening in China right now. I thought that I would try to write a brief explainer, because the current wave of protests is truly unprecedented in the past 30+ years, and there is a lot of fear over what may happen next. For context, I'm doing this as someone who has a PhD in Asian Studies specialising in contemporary Chinese politics, so I don't know everything but I have researched China for many years.
I'll post some decent links at the end along with some China specialists & journalists I follow on Twitter (yeah I know, but it's still the place for the stuff at the moment). Here are the bullet points for those who just want a brief update:
Xi Jinping's government is still enacting a strict Zero Covid policy enforced by state surveillance and strict lockdowns.
On 24 November a fire in an apartment in Urumqi, Xinjiang province, killed 10. Many blamed strict quarantine policies on preventing evacuation.
Protests followed and have since spread nationwide.
Protesters are taking steps not seen since Tiananmen in 1989, including public chants for Xi and the CCP to step down.
Everyone is currently unsure how the government will respond.
More in-depth discussion and links under the cut:
First a caveat: this is my own analysis/explanation as a Chinese politics specialist. I will include links to read further from other experts and journalists. Also, this will be quite long, so sorry about that!
China's (aka Xi Jinping's) Covid Policy:
The first and most important context: Xi has committed to a strict Zero Covid policy in China, and has refused to change course. Now, other countries have had similar approaches and they undoubtedly saved lives - I was fortunate to live in New Zealand until this year, and Prime Minister Ardern's Zero Covid approach in 2020-2021 helped protect many. The difference is in the style/scope of enforcement, the use of vaccines, and the variant at play. China has stepped up its control on public life over the past 10 years, and has used this to enforce strict quarantine measures without full regard to the impact on people's lives - stories of people not getting food were common. Quarantine has also become a feared situation, as China moves people to facilities often little better than prisons and allegedly without much protection from catching Covid within. A personal friend in Zhengzhou went through national, then provincial, then local quarantines when moving back from NZ, and she has since done her best to avoid going back for her own mental and physical health. Xi has also committed China to its two home-grown vaccines, Sinovac and Sinopharm, both of which have low/dubious efficacy and are considered ineffective against new variants. Finally, with delta and then omicron most of the Zero-Covid countries have modified their approach due to the inability to maintain zero cases. China remains the only country still enacting whole-city eradication lockdowns, and they have become more frequent to the point that several are happening at any given time. The result is a population that is incredibly frustrated and losing hope amidst endless lockdowns and perceived ineffectiveness to address the pandemic.
Other Issues at Play:
Beyond the Covid situation, China is also wrestling with the continued slowdown in its economic growth. While its economic rise and annual GDP growth was nigh meteoric from the 80s to the 00s, it has been slowing over the past ten years, and the government is attempting to manage the transition away from an export-oriented economy to a more fully developed one. However, things are still uncertain, and Covid has taken its toll as it has elsewhere the past couple of years. Youth unemployment in particular is reaching new highs at around 20%, and Xi largely ignored this in his speech at the Party Congress in October (where he entered an unprecedented third term). As a result of the perceived uselessness of China's harsh work culture and its failure to result in a better life, many young Chinese have been promoting 躺平 tǎng píng or "lying flat", aka doing the bare minimum just to get by (similar to the English "quiet quitting"). The combination of economic issues and a botched Covid approach is important, as these directly affect the lives of ordinary middle-class Chinese, and historical it has only been when this occurred that mass movements really took off. The most famous, Tiananmen in 1989, followed China's opening up economic reforms and the dismantling of many economic safety nets allowing for growing inequality. While movements in China often grow to include other topics, having a foundation in something negatively impacting the average Han Chinese person's livelihood is important.
The Spark - 24 Nov 2022 Urumqi Apartment Fire:
The current protests were sparked by a recent fire that broke out in a flat in Urumqi, capital of the Xinjiang province. (This is the same Xinjiang that is home to the Uighur people, against whom China has enacted a campaign of genocide and cultural destruction.) The fire occurred in the evening and resulted in 10 deaths, which many online blamed on the strict lockdown measures imposed by officials, who prevented people from leaving their homes. It even resulted in a rare public apology by city officials. However, with anger being so high nationwide, in addition to many smaller protests that have occurred over the past two years, this incident has ignited a nationwide movement.
The Protests and Their Significance:
The protests that have broken out over the past couple of days representing the largest and most significant challenge to the leadership since the 1989 Tiananmen movement. Similar to that movement, these protests have occurred at universities and cities across the country, with many students taking part openly. This scale is almost unseen in China, particularly for an anti-government protest. Other than Tiananmen in 1989, the most widespread movements that have occurred have been incidents such as the protest of the 1999 Belgrade bombings or the 2005 and then 2012 anti-Japanese protests, all of which were about anger toward a foreign country.
Beyond the scale the protests are hugely significant in their message as well. Protesters are publicly shouting the phrases "习近平下台 Xí Jìnpíng xiàtái!" and "共产党 下台 Gòngchǎndǎng xiàtái!", which mean "Xi Jinping, step down/resign!" and "CCP, step down/resign!" respectively. To shout a direct slogan for the government to resign is unheard of in China, particularly as Xi has tightened control of civil society. And people are doing this across the country in the thousands, openly and in front of police. This is a major challenge for a leader and party who have prioritised regime stability as a core interest for the majority of their history.
Looking Ahead:
Right now, as of 15:00 Australian Eastern time on Monday, 28 November 2022, the protests are only in their first couple of days and we are unsure as to how the government will respond. Police have already been seen beating protesters and journalists and dragging them away in vehicles. However, in many cases the protests have largely been monitored by police but still permitted to occur. There seems to be uncertainty as to how they want to respond just yet, and as such no unified approach.
Many potential outcomes exist, and I would warn everyone to be careful in overplaying what can be achieved. Most experts I have read are not really expecting this to result in Xi's resignation or regime change - these things are possible, surely, but it is a major task to achieve and the unity & scale of the protest movement remains to be fully seen. The government may retaliate with a hard crackdown as it has done with Tiananmen and other protests throughout the years. It may also quietly revamp some policies without publicly admitting a change in order to both pacify protesters and save face. The CCP often uses mixed tactics, both coopting and suppressing protest movements over the years depending on the situation. Changing from Zero Covid may prove more challenging though, given how much Xi has staked his political reputation on enforcing it.
What is important for everyone online, especially those of us abroad, is to watch out for the misinformation campaign the government will launch to counter these protests. Already twitter is reportedly seeing hundreds of Chinese bot accounts mass post escort advertisements using various city names in order to drown out protest results in the site's search engine. Chinese officials will also likely invoke the standard narrative of Western influence and CIA tactics as the reason behind the protests, as they did during the Hong Kong protests.
Finally, there will be a new surge of misinformation and bad takes from tankies, or leftists who uncritically support authoritarian regimes so long as they are anti-US. An infamous one, the Qiao Collective, has already worked to shift the narrative away from the protests and onto debating the merits of Zero Covid. This is largely similar to pro-Putin leftists attempting the justify his invasion of Ukraine. Always remember that the same values that you use to criticise Western countries should be used to criticise authoritarian regimes as well - opposing US militarism and racism, for example, is not incompatible with opposing China's acts of genocide and state suppression. If you want further info (and some good sardonic humour) on the absurd takes and misinfo from pro-China tankies, I would recommend checking out Brian Hioe in the links below.
Finally, keep in mind that this is a grass-roots protest made by people in China, who are putting their own lives at risk to demonstrate openly like this. There have already been so many acts of bravery by those who just want a better future for themselves and their country, and it is belittling and disingenuous to wave away everything they are doing as being just a "Western front" or a few "fringe extremists".
Links:
BBC live coverage page with links to analysis and articles
ABC (Australia) analysis
South China Morning Post analysis
Experts & Journalists to Check Out:
Brian Hioe - Journalist & China writer, New Bloom Magazine
Bonnie Glaser - China scholar, German Marshall Fund
Vicky Xu - Journalist & researcher, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Stephen McDonnell - Journalist, BBC
M Taylor Fravel - China scholar, MIT
New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre - NZ's hub of China scholarship (I was fortunate to attend their conferences during my PhD there, they do great work!)
If you've reached the end I hope this helps with understanding what's going on right now! A lot of us who know friends and whanau in China are worried for their safety, so please spread the word and let's hope that there is something of a positive outcome ahead.
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China is joining Russia as part of an axis of misinformation in trying to influence American elections.
Rachel Maddow referenced this article in her report from the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). It's worth a look.
Much Ado About ‘Somethings’
Being a democracy can be a disadvantage in the digital age. Malefactors can easily manipulate information to attempt to achieve dubious goals.
We need to retaliate against China and Russia. But spamming such populations under totalitarian rule would not have the same impact that it does in democracies. But we could try to punch holes in the firewalls such countries erect around their own information infrastructure. Let the breeze of free information occasionally flow and permit Russians to know about Putin's war crimes in Ukraine and let Chinese see Xi's genocide against the Uygurs in Xinjiang.
What people can do here is get off of Twitter/X and urge others to do the same. Under megalomaniac billionaire Elon Musk, misleading information and hate speech have grown exponentially on the platform.
Old habits die hard and some people have a preternatural attachment to tweeting. But as we see in Rachel Maddow's piece and in the FDD article, Twitter/X is responsible for an inordinate amount of misinformation. It's time to starve the beast one account at a time.
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中国に投資すべきでない理由
アレクサンダー・グリーン
The Oxford Club
チーフ・インベストメント・ストラテジスト
これまで、GDP世界第2位の中国は、世界経済のエンジンであるかのように思われてきました。しかし、今は違います。
私の見解では、中国はもはや投資対象ではないのです。
これは中国国民にとって悲劇的な展開です。
30年前、私は中国が経済的に自由化するにつれて、政治的にも自由化すると期待していました。
しかし、そうはなりませんでした。
事実、中国は逆の方向に進んでいて、その動きは加速しています。
中国の政治的動向
昨年からの政治的動向を見ている限り、私は中国に拠点を置く企業の株を所有したり、推奨したりしないでしょう。
(少なくとも、習近平国家主席が権力を握っている間は)。
中国の労働人口は減少しています。高齢化が進み、出生率は低下しています。
そして不動産ブームが一転して不況となりデフレが定着しました。物価が下がれば、消費者は消費をしなくなります。
観光業は崩壊しました。輸出は暴落しています(今年7月の輸出は前年比14.5%減少で、2020年2月以降で最大の落ち込みとなりました)。そして建設債務が膨らんでいます。
ブルームバーグによると、メキシコは今年、中国を抜いて最大の米国貿易相手国となりました。
これは単なる一過性の落ち込みではありません。
中国の政治的動向
自由市場や成長よりも共産党を優先する習近平氏の新しい経済戦略は、中国に大きな損失を与え続けるでしょう。
共産主義では、頭がよく無関心な官僚たちが、変化の激しい経済を監督・管理できるとふんでいますが、それは不可能であるということです。世界の歴史上、そんなことは一度も実現しなかったのに、中国政府はそれを証明しようとしているのです。
昨年、共産党は習近平氏が言うところの「資本の無秩序な拡張」を抑制するために、さまざまな産業を恣意的に取り締まりました。
(習近平氏は、経済学者のヨーゼフ・シュンペーター氏が「創造的破壊」と呼ぶ経済ダイナミズムの必然的な結果を理解していないようです。古い企業や技術は必然的に新しいものに取って代わられるのです)。
彼の強引な政策の結果、ビジネスマンや投資家は中国を見限りつつあります。
北京は今年、2023年を「対中投資の年」と銘打ちましたが、実際は逆のことが起きています。2023年4 – 6月期の中国への海外直接投資(FDI)は、前年比マイナス87.1%の492億ドルに減少しました。これは1998年以降で最も低い額です。
資金と人材の流出
ゴールドマン・サックスのエコノミストは、今年は中国への海外直接投資が中国からの海外直接投資とほぼ同じになって、中国への実質的な投資流入がゼロになるだろうと予測しています。
40年以上にわたって、海外から莫大な投資資金を流入させてきた中国にとっては、驚くべき大反転になります。
中国経済は、技術革新と生産性維持のために海外からの投資と専門知識に依存している状態にも関わらず、資金と人材は流出してしまっているのです。
中国のGDP成長率は2010年代初頭から劇的に鈍化しており、新型コロナウイルスのロックダウン後の、期待されていた景気回復は現れていません。
共産党の弾圧
今年7月、中国政府は衝撃的なデータを発表しました。16歳から24歳までの若者の6月失業率が
同時に中国政府は「若者の失業率の公表を一時停止する」と決定しました。
これは、政治における一番の目標が市民の生活向上ではなく、党の支配を拡大する場合に起こることです。
中国共産党は、大都市に集中する若者の不満により権威が脅かされることをよく理解しています。
しかし、中国共産党は不満を持つ若者のニーズに応える経済プログラムを作る代わりに、弾圧を倍増させているのです。
中国共産党は知識人、権利弁護士、活動家など、基本的に反対意見を持つ者を取り締まってきました。
党に異議を唱えたと疑われる者は検挙され、組織は解散させられたのです。
そして政府は、広範囲に及ぶ監視カメラから携帯電話の追跡、顔認識技術に至るまで、あらゆるものを使って人々の動きや考えを監視しています。
この全体主義は徹底しており、中国はいまや北朝鮮と比較されることが多くなっています。
習近平が克服でき���い問題
習近平氏は、悪化する経済からの影響を抑えたいと考えているでしょう。しかし、彼には克服できない問題があります。
それは、市場は封じ込めたりコントロールしたりできないということです。中国共産党の経済政策に対する世界の判断は、誰の目にも明らかです。
以下は、中国の主要株価指数とS&P500種株価指数を比較したチャートです。
<米国株が中国株をアウトパフォーム>
(青)S&P500 種株価指数P500種株価指数 (緑)上海総合指数
出所:Bloomberg のデータを基にOxfordクラブ作成 size
ご覧の通り、米国株は中国株を圧倒的な差で上回っています。2021年に入ってから、中国の主要株価指数である上海総合指数は10%近く下落しているのに対し、S&P500種株価指数は18%以上上昇しています。
このような悲惨なパフォーマンスの結果、中国を除外した新しい新興市場指数が登場しています。
昨年の10 – 12月期以降だけでも、ゴールドマン・サックス、パトナム、ウィズダムツリーなどの資産運用会社が、中国株を除外した10の上場投資信託や投資信託を発表しています。
驚くなかれ、これらのファンドは中国株価指数に勝っています。
中国株は世界で最も割安な部類に入ります。しかし、私ならそんなファンドには手を出しません。
低いバリュエーションは、生産性の低迷、売上高の減少、期待はずれの業績の結果です。
要するに、「独裁リスク」が投資家の頭の片隅にあるのです。
中国は単に最適な投資先ではないだけではなく、世界の資本にとって潜在的なブラックホールなのです。
ロシアがウクライナに侵攻したとき、ルーブルは暴落し、ロシア経済は落ち込み、同国の株式は取引不能となりました。
同様に中国が台湾を手に入れた時、習近平氏が権力を握り、歴史的な経済衰退から国民の目を逸らそうとしている以上、同じような下落が起きる可能性はあります。
私は、中国市場がこれから短期的な上昇を経験しない、あるいは本格的な強気相場にならないとは言っていません。
しかし、もっと良い投資リターンは、もっとリスクの少ない他の場所にいくらでもあるのです。
P.S.
今日は中国について私の考えをお話ししました。
やはり自由主義で成長する米国株への投資をお勧めします。
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