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#russia's massive tank losses
tomorrowusa · 1 year
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Having almost all of the Russian Army in Ukraine is barely enough to keep the invaders from losing ground there. 
Ben Wallace told the BBC on Wednesday that Russia had not been able to amass a single force to "punch through" Ukrainian defenses.
"That has come at a huge cost to the Russian army. We now estimate 97% of the Russian army, the whole Russian army, is in Ukraine."
He also reiterated the 97% number as he defended the UK's military support for Ukraine, saying that "helping Ukraine defeat Russia in Ukraine actually adds to our own security at home."
Putin has killed more Russians than Ukrainians and he just doesn’t care how many more he has to sacrifice for his warped goal of restoring the empire of the USSR.
Russian defectors and Western intelligence have repeatedly highlighted that many Russian troops received almost no training before being sent to Ukraine.
Some Russians called up in the September mobilization recieved so little training that some were sent home in body bags within just one month of being called up to fight in Ukraine.
But experts also caution that a high troop death rate does not appear to bother Russia's leaders, and indeed fits into its strategy when fighting Ukraine, a country that has Western help with troop training.
And Russia isn’t doing well when it comes to heavy military equipment either.
Russian army has lost up to half of key battle tanks, analysts estimate
Russia’s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).
That rises to as much as 50% for some of the key tanks used in combat, forcing Russia to reach into its still sizeable cold war-era stocks. Ukraine’s tank numbers are estimated to have increased because of the number it has captured and supplies of Soviet-era tanks from its western allies.
John Chipman, the thinktank’s chair, said the war had been “a political and military failure for Russia” highlighting shortcomings in leadership and deficiencies in its munitions, despite Kremlin modernisation efforts.
And it’s not as if Russia has been keeping most of its best tanks in reserve. While there may be a small number of experimental models, the bulk in reserve are probably as bad as the jack-in-the-box types with the pop-off turrets.
On the other hand, Leopard 2 tanks are coming to Ukraine. Ukrainian crews for Leopards and other advanced NATO tanks are currently being trained in Poland, the UK, and other countries.
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People often compare Putin to Hitler. But a better fit may be Paraguayan dictator Francisco Solano López (1826-1870) who was responsible for the second-bloodiest war in Western Hemisphere history. Solano López became increasingly irrational and proclaimed himself “El Supremo” and depleted his country as he fought the combined forces of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. SPOILER: It didn’t go well for him.
Here’s a short summary of Solano López’s War of the Triple Alliance.
Russia, if you don’t want to be driven into the ground by Putin’s craziness, you need to remove him ASAP.
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typingtess · 1 month
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NCIS: Los Angeles Season 14 Rewatch:  “Flesh & Blood”
The basics:  Investigate a Navy wife fleeing the scene of her husband’s murder.
Written by:  Chad Mazero co-wrote “Internal Affairs”, “Revenge Deferred”, “Where Everybody Knows Your Name”, “The Noble Maidens” and “Pandora’s Box”.  Wrote “Tidings We Bring”, “Can I Get a Witness”, “All Is Bright”, “Diamond in the Rough”, “High Society”, “Murder of Crows”, "Overdue" and "Sorry for Your Loss".
Directed by:  Daniela Ruah directed “Russia, Russia, Russia”, “Lost Sailor Down”, “Pandora’s Box” (co-written by Chad Mazero) and “Live Free or Die Standing”.
Guest stars of note:  Pamela Reed returns from season 11’s “High Society” as Roberta Deeks, Bar Paly returns from “Of Value” as Anastasia “Anna” Kolcheck, Natalia Del Riego is back from “Game of Drones” as Rosa Reyes, Kavi Ramachandran Ladnier is back from the previous episode “Dead Stick” as NCIS Reserve Agent Shyla Dahr, Marnee Carpenter as Alice Morgan, Lauren "Lolo" Spencer as Ella and Rif Hutton as Navy Commander Albert Burns
Our heroes:   Work with an abused wife to find some explosives while working through some home issues.
What important things did we learn about:
Callen:  Waiting for Hetty to get married. Sam:  Worried that Callen is avoiding getting married. Kensi:  Feels like she’s not prepared for motherhood. Deeks:  Bad baseball game in June of 1990. Fatima:  Absent. Rountree:   Looking to put his Beale bucks to good use. Kilbride:  Not pleased with Deeks’s attitude about the Navy spousal abuse response.
What not so important things did we learn about:
Callen:  Orphan. Sam: Once again looking for a caretaker for Raymond. Kensi:  Hanging with Bertie, buying cleats with Rosa at the mall and negotiating teen angst. Deeks:  Owes Kensi for hanging with Bertie. Fatima:  Not around. Rountree:   Called “Shark Tank” by Shyla. Kilbride:  Not pleased with the Navy’s spousal abuse response in the cut scenes.
Where in the world is Henrietta Lange?  Don’t know but Anna wants her found so she can marry Callen.
Who's down with OTP:   Anna and Callen are trying to negotiate their way around a wedding date.  Kensi and Deeks are trying to negotiate their way around Bertie.
Who's down with BrOTP:  With the teams mixing and matching all episode, not a lot of BrOTP time but Shyla worked well with all.
Fashion review:  Callen starts the episode in a black running shirt and black shorts.  Wears a button down medium blue shirt for the rest of the episode.  Sam has a wine colored long-sleeve tee-shirt.  Kensi is in a white tee-shirt with thin blue stripes.  Cornflower blue long-sleeve tee for Deeks.  Rountree is wearing a light brown long-sleeve tee.  Kilbride is in his civilian uniform with a medium blue three-piece suit, pale blue dress-shirt, blue tie.
Music: Not today.
Any notable cut scene:   Finally!  As Rountree is packing up for the day, Shyla asks him if he wants to go out for some tacos.  He can’t – he’s meeting with his friend David Packer about his investment money.  Shyla asks him not to.  Understanding that she may be overstepping, she knows Rountree has a real fire inside after what happened with Jordyn and the LAPD.  The person Rountree needs to invest in is himself. 
As they leave, Sam is find a caretaker for his Dad.  The Admiral says that gets Sam a good night’s sleep.  The Admiral also thinks Alice Morgan deserved better.  The Admiral thinks maybe they should blow up the whole damn book on abuse cases.  Then promises to if Sam tells anyone he said that, the Admiral would make sure Sam didn’t get a good night’s sleep ever again.
Quote:  Deeks:  So it's, uh... June 30, 1990.  And my mom decides she wants to take me to watch the Dodgers play the Cardinals.  And I will never forget that day.” Alice:  “I don't care about sports.” Deeks:  “That's funny, 'cause I don't care about sports either.  No, the reason I remember it is because it was so hot.  Like, L.A. had been coming off this massive heat wave and I can still see the ice cream cone melting as it's being passed down the row.” Alice:  “Now you want to talk about weather?” Deeks:  “Actually, I do, because...that is the other thing that I can still see from that day, is my mom.  And she's sitting next to me in this 90-degree heat, except for the fact that she is wearing...she's wearing jeans and a long-sleeve turtleneck.  And she was covered up like that the whole entire summer.  Not that it matters, because she couldn't cover the bruises on her face.” Alice:  “Did he spare you, at least?” Deeks:  “No.   I mean, but I was a kid, right?  Kids are supposed to have bruises.  I'd just tell the teachers that, um...I got another fight in the playground.  What do you tell people?” Alice:  “I don't have anyone left to tell.  He made me push everyone away.” Deeks:  “Yeah, they do that.”
Runner up:  Rountree:  “Was all that true? About your dad?” Deeks:  “Every word of it.”
Anything else:  At night in a suburban neighborhood, a woman is frantically packing her things.  She gets a phone call from her father and tries to blow him off.  Seeing her in a mirror, her clothes are covered with blood.  Her father is recommending a Tom Hanks movie as she is trying to get him off the phone.  She tells her father she loves him as she tries to leave the house.  A man’s dead body is making it hard to open the door.  But she succeeds.
Callen arrives home with two smoothies.  He’s worn out which surprises Anna.  She ran for six-miles, he “bailed” after two.  Since the bagel place didn’t have bagels, he brought smoothies.  Anna wanted bagels before her job interview that day.  She also wants to pick a wedding date.  Every time of the year Anna mentions, Callen has a reason not to get married at that time.  She offers him an out when it comes to getting married.  He wants to get married, Callen assures her, just find the right time to do it.
At the Blye-Deeks home, everyone is running around as the day starts.  Rosa is missing her backpack.  When Kensi tosses it, Deeks walks right into the tossed backpack.  Rosa and Deeks review her latest assignment as they hustle to leave.  Deeks gets a phone call – it’s Bertie.  She’s been on the road for six months of “eat, pray and loving” her way across the country.  Deeks thinks this is all TMI.  After seeing “Nomadland”, Bertie rented out her apartment so she is going to crash at the Blye-Deeks residence.  She needs someone to be there to let her in.  Rosa really needs to leave for school so they are going to figure something out.
Walking near the gym, Shyla hears Rountree working out and quoting “300”.  He’s working on an ancient martial arts technique to strengthen his grip and arms.  When Rountree gets a text, he asks Shyla to look at his phone – they could have a case.  Instead, Rountree has a text from “Packer” who is talking about his pants being on fire.  Packer is a friend of Rountree’s from Quantico.  Packer is starting a clothing line and Rountree is a possible investor.  He’s looking to grow some of the money Eric left them all last year.  After what happened to Rountree and Jordyn, he's looking to invest that money into a growing business.  Shyla would have taken the Eric money and spent some time in Tokyo.
Sam has a call and so does the Admiral.  Both are unhappy with their calls.  Sam lost another caretaker for Raymond, NCIS is making Kilbride go through another round of approvals for expenses.  Cranky men in Ops alert.
The Admiral looks around an empty Ops and wonders where is everyone.  On the screen is the dead man blocking the door from the opening scenes.  He is Lt. Jeff Morgan, an intelligence officer working out of a DoD Task Force.  Morgan was stabbed several times.  There are real concerns because Morgan was part of a team developing software to integrate intelligence gathered by all branches of the armed services.  If an outsider or foreign government got access to that software, they’d have access all U.S. military intelligence.  Sam asks if there are any suspects – China, Russia, Iran or Alice Morgan, Jeff’s wife.  She’s was seen leaving the house at the estimated time of death. 
In the office driveway, Kensi and Deeks are arguing about who is going to help Bertie unpack.  Deeks is owed a favor by Kensi and he’s calling it in. She’s not interested in helping unpack all of Mama Deeks’s Michael Bublé fannish things.   Besides, Deeks should help his mother.  Callen arrives but isn’t interested in hearing any of this – he’s an orphan.  Deeks says that funny, Callen doesn’t agree. 
Sam joins the trio, the most we’ve seen of this foursome together in a while.  He's been working since 8AM and everyone else just arrived.  Callen and Sam are off to the boatshed to meet with Morgan’s CO, Sam would like Kensi and Deeks to join Rountree at the crime scene.  Sighing Kensi mentions she has some accrued leave Kilbride wants her to take so she’ll help Roberta, get Rosa from school and Rosa can meet Bertie.  Deeks tells Kensi he owes her. 
At the house Morgan household, Rountree found a locked laptop – Shyla is getting a warrant to get in.  Deeks is looking through some magazines while Rountree picks up the Morgans’s mail.  One magazine has expensive furniture.  Speaking of money, LAPD found a Rolex on Morgan’s wrist and a Lexus in the garage – this wasn’t a robbery gone bad.  Rountree is confused – a junior officer like Morgan doesn’t make Rolex money.
Deeks flips through Morgan’s credit card bills – they are big.  Since Alice Morgan didn’t have a job, the only way they could afford their lifestyle was if Jeff Morgan was selling military secrets.  Deeks sees that the credit card bills include electronic toll charges – an EZ Pass.  They can find Alice Morgan’s location that way.
In the boat shed, Morgan’s CO, Commander Burns, is not thrilled to be there.  There are cellphones for meetings like this.   He should be in his office dealing with the fallout from the tragedy of Morgan being killed and not sitting in the boatshed – a “Bubba Gump’s”. 
Sam asks about the software.  According to Burns, it tracks everything from emails between intelligence offices to weapons and ordnance use and supplies.  Morgan was doing data analytics for the team but a month ago, he started visiting weapon manufacturers to make sure their software would work the with military’s new software.  Burns really didn’t have much of an opinion of Morgan except he was a good kid.  With hundreds of men under his command, he really didn’t know much about him.  He remembers Alice Morgan was quiet and unfriendly.  Burns is done with Callen and Sam.  He’ll answer any other questions by phone – he has work to do.  Callen and Sam want to check into Morgan’s travel vouchers to see where he went and who he saw.
In Ops, Shyla was able to get into the locked laptop but most accounts were logged out.  She was able to get into Alice Morgan’s text messages – the laptop and Alice’s phones were synced up.  There was a confirmation code for a company called Home Connection – discrete vacation rentals.  Shyla finds Alice Morgan booked a home on Larchmont an hour after she was seen leaving her home the night before.
In Larchmont, Rountree is really impressed with the area.  Good investments homes, water views – Rountree is talking about investments when Deeks says “Alice Morgan” who he sees leaving the rental house.  Rountree says “Alice Morgan” which has the same effect of yelling “federal agents” since Alice starts to run.  After she throws a branch cutter at Deeks, Rountree gets her to stop as she’s climbing a fence.  She is armed but surrenders. 
In interrogation, Deeks is on the right side of the table while Rountree is in the corner.  Deeks is rattling on about the “Chose Your Adventures” books when Rountree says they have witnesses who saw her flee the scene of a murder.  Rountree and Deeks can sit with Alice in interrogation all day or they can help her.  Alice wonders where they were six months ago when she asked for help.  Deeks wants to know what happened six months ago.  Alice says she talked and talked and talked and nobody wanted to help.  She moves in her chair, making sure her jacket and long sleeves cover her arms.  An obviously bothered Deeks wants to take a break.  He’s getting everyone coffee.
Callen and Sam return to the office.  Cheryl, Raymond’s latest caretaker who is very into birds according to Callen, quit when Raymond started talking about war pigeons.  Mentioning that Raymond’s previous caretaker quit when he wouldn’t ride in her Mazda – Raymond likes American-made cars – Callen thinks Sam is avoiding the real issue.  Sam loves this conversation because Callen is all about avoiding issues…like his wedding date.  Sam is sure Anna will understand whatever is holding Callen back.  The Admiral walks by – everyone to Ops.
Shyla tells an arriving Callen and Sam that Alice Morgan isn’t talking.  Commander Burns sent over Morgan’s travel vouchers.  Comparing the travel vouchers to Morgan’s EZ-Pass charges, “something is rotten in Denmark” according to Shyla.  Morgan visited a number of companies that made high-grade military explosives.  After every meeting, he would go someplace 20-miles past his home.  Using Kaleidoscope, Morgan is seen driving into a storage facility in El Monte two-days before he was killed.  Sam gets a call from the caretaker agency.  He’s taking it outside of Ops.
Deeks returns alone to interrogation with a cup of coffee for Alice.  He explains it is June 30, 1990 and his mother takes him to a Cardinals-Dodgers game.  He remembers that day.  Alice doesn’t care about sports.  Deeks doesn’t either but he will always remember that day.  It was so hot.  Ice cream cones were melts as they were being passed down the row.  Alice doesn’t want to talk about the weather either.  Deeks does.  Because all he really remembers from that day – his mother wearing jeans and a long-sleeve turtleneck.  Not that it really mattered – she couldn’t cover the bruises on her face.  She wore clothes like that for the entire summer. 
Alice asks if “he” spared Deeks.  Deeks says no but kids are supposed to have bruises.  He would tell the teachers he was fighting in the playground.  “What do you tell people?”  Alice said she had nobody to tell.  Her husband made her push everyone away.  Deeks asks how long has the abuse been going on.  Physically, Alice tells him, three-years.  “Mentally, who knows.”  She doesn’t have access to their bank account.  Morgan controlled every part of her life.
Deeks asks if a few months ago, she told the Navy.  There was a  military hotline and she called.  She didn’t hear back.  She filed a report with the family advocacy center who told her they’d look into it.  Deeks has to asks and understands if she did – did Alice kill her husband?  She didn’t – she found him dead when she arrived home.  What surprised Alice was even after everything he did, she tried to save him.  It doesn’t surprise Deeks. 
Deeks asks why did she run.  Alice explains that her husband was a valuable asset to the military, “I’m not.”  She was afraid her reports would be used as motive.  She asks for a few minutes and Deeks agrees.  As he’s leaving, she mentions that her husband would smell like motor oil after he returns from his business trips.  
At home, Bertie is telling Rosa about skinny dipping at a Ramada Inn off the Strip in Vegas.  Kensi isn’t thrilled.  Rosa is really entertained.  She would like to see Adele in Las Vegas, a friend has a condo and the family would let her use it.  The friend, Tay, is from her calculus class and Bertie is down on calculus.  With a disastrous marriage, three dead-end jobs and a brush with a pyramid scheme, she never used the Pythagorean theorem.  That’s really geometry, Kensi notes but Rosa is in love.  Bertie is the coolest.  Since Rosa needs to soccer cleats, she asks Kensi to take her and Tay to the mall.  Bertie moves on to a story about taking a sound bath behind a DQ in Marfa.
At a storage unit facility, Callen, now teamed up with Shyla, is brought to Jeff Morgan’s storage unit by the manager.  The place was cleaned out but still smells like almonds and motor oil – explosives manufacturers put the scent into their product on purpose.  Callen finds a small piece of C-4.  Shyla doesn’t think Morgan was killed for the software, he was killed after using his access to these explosive manufacturers to procure some product.  Callen worries about where the explosives are now.
The woman managing the storage unit place wants all the inside scoop if there is a dead body – she has a true crime podcast.  Three men were removing boxes from the back of the storage facility when the woman started her shift.  She doesn’t have access to the video surveillance, however, only her boss can do that.  Shyla wants the woman to call her boss – they need the footage now.  Shyla is also going to contact Commander Burns to figure out what is missing.
In Ops, Kilbride confirms that Alice Morgan contacted the military abuse hotlines to Deeks and Rountree in the boat shed.  The people running the hotlines say they take all abuse complaints seriously but there wasn’t enough information to move it to NCIS.  The Pentagon invested $1-billion to remedy this situation after past failures.  Deeks wonders how much of that money could have been saved if this was a priority from the start.  The Admiral is not pleased with Deeks’s statement.  He says since Alice didn’t kill her husband, figure out if she knows who did and disconnects.
Looking at Deeks, Rountree asks how much of the story he told Alice was true.  “Every word of it,” is Deeks’s reply.
Bertie finished doing laundry though Kensi out of the dryer sheets.  Asking for Rosa, Kensi explains that she’s negotiating between Tay and a friend over a disagreement.  She also tells Bertie that she doesn’t have to do laundry.  Bertie missed doing the laundry.  Kensi tries telling her mother-in-law that she and Deeks missed her but Bertie knows better. 
Bertie also knows Kensi is feeling a bit overwhelmed by parenthood.  Kensi notes that she’s not “technically” Rosa’s parent.  Bertie asks Kensi if she loves Rosa and wants to keep her safe.  Kensi does on both.  Bertie follows up - does Kensi fear she isn’t doing enough even though she’s exhausted from doing too much.  “Every single morning.”  Bertie doesn’t care about “technically” – Kensi is Rosa’s parent.  Kensi spent her entire NCIS career being one step ahead of everyone else.  She thought she could do that with being a parent.  She couldn’t.
Bertie offers some words of wisdom from her mother about being a parent – it’s like being pecked to death by a chicken.  That’s not helpful. 
Shyla has news for “Shark Tank” – Rountree.  She’s sending video of the three men who took the explosives from the storage unit but the footage is awful.  Rountree goes into interrogation to see if Alice knows any of the men.  Alice recognizes one of the men – she met him at a wine festival.  She remembers the date – it was her birthday.  She thought he was doing something nice for her birthday.  Obviously not.  As Rountree goes to tell Shyla, Alice asks Deeks what happened to his father.  Deeks tells her he shot him and two weeks later, he was in jail.
Callen and Shyla return to the office.  She gets a call as she returns to Ops, Callen goes to see Sam in the bullpen.  They are on a video call with Commander Burns.  He assures Callen and Sam that he’s been working with ATF.  15 to 25 pounds of C-4 is missing with a lot of blasting caps and detonation cord. Callen asks abuse complaints about Morgan.  Burns did not have enough evidence to move forward.  Before Callen and Sam could press him, Shyla needs them in Ops.  They quickly end the call but promise to call back.
In Ops, Shyla found Morgan had several bank account Alice Morgan knew nothing about.  Several of them received $9,000 deposits in the prior week – a transaction amount just under the amount of money a bank would have to report to Feds.  Met World Holdings sent the money.  It is owned by an Ivan Parson, who looks like one of the man in grainy video.  Met World Holdings is an import/export business – they move fine foods and fine wines.  Parson is connected to extremist groups in Ireland, Germany and Indonesia. 
The Admiral is looking for a sitrep.  Met World Holdings has an unoccupied space in Hollywood.  Deeks is getting Alice to a safe house so Callen, Sam and a seven-minutes out Rountree are at the unoccupied space.  The Admiral reminds everyone that the job is to get back the explosives without blowing up a city block.  The only way LA is going down in flames is if the Admiral has the match.
Callen and Sam move near the building.  They can see some shelves of items and a man but he’s not Parsons.  Going through the back door, Callen and Sam see Parsons.  Sam throws a wine bottle to get one of the men’s attention.  Sam quickly takes him out but makes enough noise to get Parsons and a minion to run.  Callen tackles the friend but Parsons gets to his vehicle.  An arriving Rountree stops him but Parsons throws his bag of explosives in the air and shoots them.  That sends Rountree flying but Sam takes down Parsons with ease.
As Parsons is being taken away, Callen tells Sam and Rountree that Morgan wanted to back out of the deal but Parsons already paid for the explosives.  Morgan was either scared or greedy.  He also wasn’t as tough as he thought he was.
Deeks joins Bertie on the back porch.  They share a couple of beers as Bertie asks if he got all the cats out of the trees.  Deeks said he did his best.  Deeks wants to talk about “Dad”.  Bertie isn’t interested in her past.  Deeks doesn’t think that’s fair – it is their past.  He only wants to know how she made it through.  “Vicodin and Sally Jessy Raphael,” is her answer.  She doesn’t know. 
Bertie explains that Deeks’s father took everything from the two of them, including the person Bertie used to be. But when he was gone, with Deeks’s help, she got that person back.  She’s made a lot of mistakes since that in her life but it is her life.  Deeks approves. 
Kensi and Rosa join Deeks and Bertie on the patio.  They’re just back from the mall.  Rosa would like to visit San Francisco and Deeks is all in on that.  Bertie invites herself – she knows a thruple up in Barstow that can rent then an RV.  Deeks is horrified by his mother being in a thruple.  Bertie assure him she’s not a part of the thruple, she just knows one. 
Anna returns home.  She thought they were going to dinner but Callen has a candles and some wine.  He also got bagels.  He loves Anna and he’d marry her tomorrow.  When they get married, he wants to be surrounded by everyone that means everything to them.  Arkady and Hetty are part of the package.  Anna isn’t happy but Callen explains Hetty has been in his life from the beginning.  He can’t get married without her.  She has more of the story and he needs her to tell it.  If he doesn’t do this, Hetty will always be the other person in the room.  He doesn’t need a lot more time but Anna is giving him all the time he needs.  She only asks the he tell the truth, even with it is hard, especially when it is hard.  He promises he will.
What head canon can be formed from here:   While the case of the week wasn’t much, that felt intentional.  The guys who stole the explosives were plot points.  They weren’t the typical bad guy – they were a bunch of dudes.  The hour instead was about family relationships.  It started with the Kolcheck-Callen and  Blye-Deeks households, moved to Rountree talking about his sister, Sam with his father and then the case of the week.
This was a terrific Deeks episode.  Light and goofy dad/husband at home, sad and serious with Alice and later with the Admiral, Rountree and Bertie.  There should be a bonus for the person who decided Pamela Reed would work as Deeks’s mom.  Just as light and goofy she could be in most of the episode, she was sad and serious near the end.  That scene with them alone wasn’t just family, it was two survivors who built themselves the lives they enjoy.
For a program and an NCISVerse that is mostly pro-military, there was a real sense of disgust by Deeks and disappoint/disgust late in the episode by the Admiral over the handling of Alice’s abuse case. 
Loved the explosion that sent Rountree flying – that’s the show I know and love.
Episode number:  Episode 307 overall, the fifth episode of season 14.
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theculturedmarxist · 7 months
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We are entering the end stage of the 30-year US neocon debacle in Ukraine. The neocon plan to surround Russia in the Black Sea region by NATO has failed. Decisions now by the US and Russia will matter enormously for peace, security, and wellbeing for the entire world.
Four events have shattered the neocon hopes for NATO enlargement eastward, to Ukraine, Georgia, and onward. The first is straightforward. Ukraine has been devastated on the battlefield, with tragic and appalling losses. Russia is winning the war of attrition, an outcome that was predictable from the start but which the neocons and mainstream media deny till today.
The second is the collapsing support in Europe for the US neocon strategy. Poland no longer speaks with Ukraine. Hungary has long opposed the neocons. Slovakia has elected an anti-neocon government. EU leaders (Macron, Meloni, Sanchez, Scholz, Sunak, and others) have disapproval ratings far higher than approvals.
The third is the cut in US financial support for Ukraine. The Republican Party grassroots, several Republican Presidential candidates, and a growing number of Republican members of Congress, oppose more spending on Ukraine. In the stop-gap bill to keep the government running, Republicans stripped away new financial support for Ukraine. The White House has called for new aid legislation, but this will be an uphill fight.
The fourth, and most urgent from Ukraine’s point of view, is the likelihood of a Russian offensive. Ukraine’s casualties are in the hundreds of thousands, and Ukraine has burned through its artillery, air defenses, tanks, and others heavy weapons. Russia is likely to follow with a massive offensive.
The neocons have created utter disasters in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine. The US political system has not yet held the neocons to account, since foreign policy is carried out with little public or Congressional scrutiny to date. Mainstream media have sided with the slogans of the neocons.
Ukraine is at risk of economic, demographic and military collapse. What should the US Government do to face this potential disaster?
Urgently, it should change course. Britain advises the US to escalate, as Britain is stuck with 19th century imperial reveries. US neocons are stuck with imperial bravado. Cooler heads urgently need to prevail.
President Joe Biden should immediately inform President Vladimir Putin that the US will end NATO enlargement eastward if the US and Russia reach a new agreement on security arrangements. By ending NATO expansion, the US can still save Ukraine from the policy debacles of the past 30 years.
Biden should agree to negotiate a security arrangement of the kind, though not precise details, of President Putin’s proposals of December 17, 2021. Biden foolishly refused to negotiate with Putin in December 2021. It’s time to negotiate now.
There are four keys to an agreement. First, as part of an overall agreement Biden should agree that NATO will not enlarge eastward, but not reverse the past NATO enlargement. NATO would of course not tolerate Russian encroachments in existing NATO states. Both Russia and the US would pledge to avoid provocations near Russia’s borders, including provocative missile placement, military exercises, and the like.
Second, the new US – Russia security agreement should cover nuclear weapons. The US unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, followed by the placement of Aegis missiles in Poland and Romania, gravely inflamed tensions, which were further exacerbated by the US withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) Agreement in 2019 and Russia’s suspension of the New Start Treaty in 2023. Russian leaders have repeatedly pointed to US missiles near Russia, unconstrained by the abandoned ABM Treaty, as a dire threat to Russia’s national security.
Third, Russia and Ukraine would agree on new borders, in which the overwhelmingly ethnic Russian Crimea and heavily ethnic Russian districts of eastern Ukraine would remain part of Russia. The border changes would be accompanied by security guarantees for Ukraine backed unanimously by the UN Security Council and other states such as Germany, Turkey, and India.
Fourth, as part of a settlement, the US, Russia, and EU would re-establish trade, finance, cultural exchange, and tourist relations. It’s certainly time once again to hear Rachmaninoff and Tchaikovsky in US and European concert halls.
Border changes are a last resort, and should be made only under UN Security Council auspices. They must never be an invitation to further territorial demands, such as by Russia regarding ethnic Russians in other countries. Yet borders change, and the US has recently backed two border changes. NATO bombed Serbia for 78 days until it relinquished the Albanian-majority region of Kosovo. In 2008, the US recognized Kosovo as a sovereign nation. The US similarly backed South Sudan’s insurgency to break away from Sudan.
If Russia, Ukraine, or the US subsequently violated the new agreement, they would be challenging the rest of the world. As JFK observed, “even the most hostile nations can be relied upon to accept and keep those treaty obligations, and only those treaty obligations, which are in their own interest.”
The US neocons carry much blame for undermining Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Russia did not claim Crimea until after the US-backed overthrow of Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Nor did Russia annex the Donbas after 2014, instead calling on Ukraine to honor the UN-backed Minsk II agreement, based on autonomy for the Donbas. The neocons preferred to arm Ukraine to retake the Donbas by force rather than grant the Donbas autonomy.
The long-term key to peace in Europe is collective security as called for by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). According to OSCE agreements, OSCE member states “will not strengthen their security at the expense of the security of other States.” Neocon unilateralism undermined Europe’s collective security by pushing NATO enlargement without regard to third parties, notably Russia. Europe — including the EU, Russia, and Ukraine — needs more OSCE and less neocon unilateralism as key to lasting peace in Europe.
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cyarsk52-20 · 9 months
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Twitter reacts to Ukraine's defense team quoting Pusha T's lyrics
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Pusha T seems quite popular in Ukraine, as its defense team cited some of his lyrics on its official Twitter account on Tuesday (Sept. 6).
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, with over one million followers, tweeted a chart illustrating Russia’s losses since the Ukrainian war started earlier this year. The caption contains lyrics from Pusha T’s “Numbers on the Boards” track from his 2013 debut solo album, My Name Is My Name. “I put numbers on the boards. @PUSHA_T. Total combat losses of the enemy from Feb. 24 to Sept. 7,” the tweet read. 
The chart displays that several Russianartilleries have been destroyed in battle, including 2,117 tanks, 4,556 armed combat vehicles, almost 300 military jets, and other heavy artilleries. The Ukrainian defense account also indicated that over 50,000 soldiers have allegedly been killed in battle.
The Virginia Beach rapper responded to the post on Wednesday (Sept. 7), pointing out Ukraine’s excellent musical preferences. “Great taste in music for the win,” he tweeted.
People on social media and hip hop fans were not shy about sharing their opinions about the Twitter account using Pusha’s lyrics. Most of the commenters were in shock at the tweet, such as Twitterer NekiasNBA, who said in disbelief, “This entire planet is a simulation.” Another commenter kay_mahapa, tweeted, “We live in a world where Pusha T lyrics are used in war.” A third person commented, “Yo, directly quoting Pusha T in the middle of a massive war is the heights of wildness. We are living in a simulation!”
Even the co-host of Hot 97‘s “Ebro in the Morning,” Ebro had to react to the unexpected tweet, saying, “Pusha T has won wars, so they [are] associating with the right rapper.”
Guapdad 4000 also responded to the viral post, saying, “The fact that there’s a Ukrainian intern somewhere designing digital assets to display a body count from [the] war in a friendly looking format is f**king wild to me. We [are] not even gone talk about the @PUSHA_T quote [goat emoji].”
How do you feel about this tweet?
The Ukrainian defense team’s post, Pusha’s tweet and its reactions can be found below:
“I put numbers on the boards.”@PUSHA_T Total combat losses of the enemy from Feb 24 to Sep 7: pic.twitter.com/mUC5NnLcpy — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 7, 2022
Great taste in music for the win… https://t.co/GKG2V6Jc4S — King Push (@PUSHA_T) September 7, 2022
this entire planet is a simulation https://t.co/sjTkHb4NTc — Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) September 7, 2022
We live in a world where Pusha T lyrics are used in war https://t.co/KpdkCLIajD — Lesilo Rula (@kay_mahapa) September 7, 2022
Yo, directly quoting Pusha T in the middle of a massive war is the heights of wildness. We are living in a simulation! https://t.co/XpPxEb2oJj — So… what now? 💭 (@tenilleclarke1) September 7, 2022
Pusha T has won wars, so they associating with the right rapper https://t.co/p82glzbOA5 — Kojo Ebro Odogwu (@oldmanebro) September 7, 2022
The fact that there’s a Ukrainian intern somewhere designing digital assets to display a body count from war in a friendly looking format is fucking wild to me. We not even gone talk about the @PUSHA_T quote…🐐 https://t.co/ZWxUlScvFx — GUAP (@guapdad4000) September 7, 2022
Sent from my iPhone
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rvps2001 · 7 months
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Russia-Ukraine Daily Briefing
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Thursday Briefing:
- EU leaders tackle Middle East war but aim to keep up Ukraine support - S.Korea, Japan, US condemn North Korea's supply of arms to Russia - Deepfakes weaponized in Russia's war against Ukraine ------------------------------------------------------------- - Russia, China veto US push for UN action on Israel, Gaza - Russia says it rehearsed delivering a massive retaliatory nuclear strike - International Ski Federation maintains ban on Russian skiers - Europe keeps supplying equipment and components to Russian missile manufacturers - Slovak president appoints govt forged with pro-Russia party - Armenia sees no advantage in keeping Russian military bases - Australia announced a new $12.7M aid package for Ukraine - Putin tempts voters with flats and holidays in election raffle - Russia’s huge tank losses show it isn't learning from its many defeats - Russia passes law pulling ratification of nuclear test ban treaty
------------------------------------------- 📨 More in a daily newsletter: https://russia-ukraine-newsletter.beehiiv.com/subscribe
💬 My socials: https://linktr.ee/rvps2001
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warsofasoiaf · 1 year
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Re the state of the war in Ukraine right now, asking here to get a fairly unbiased opinion on a bunch of conflicting information the media right now. What’s happening with Bachmut? Some were saying that it was inevitable it would fall but it’s looked to me like Russia has paid a lot but gained very little for an asset whose strategic value is tenuous enough as is in the broader strategic perspective of the whole war. Further, it’s seemed to me like the Ukrainian counterattack should cut through the Russian army which seems overstretched, poorly manned, and low on morale when Ukraine gets all of its top-of-the-line western donated weapons in order which has potential to win back all the territory they’ve lost. In the leaked Pentagon files it said Western military brass seriously doubts Ukraine’s ability to take back any kind of considerable territory but they critically underestimated Ukraine’s military capability upon the outbreak of the war and, for whatever its worth, it seems to me like they’re doing it again. To me the calculus seems such— Ukraine has gotten stronger since the winter with tons of new state-of-the-art weapons to bolster their capabilities which were already stymying Russia while Russia, which was already underperforming, continues to hemorrhage manpower and has been forced to recruit very green civilian conscripts just to fill the ranks. Simply, Ukraine was already winning and they’ve gotten stronger— Russia was losing and they’ve been getting weaker. Do you agree or disagree with these assessments and do you have anything to add? Thanks.
As best I understand, the Russians in Bakhmut are making incrementally small progress in incredibly tense urban combat at the cost of massive casualties and still haven't managed to capture all of the city. For the Russians, this represents performing at their best - other areas note very little forward advance.
Certainly, Russia has lost significant amounts of human expertise since their elite infantry units - the VDV and the Naval Infantry, have suffered catastrophic losses. Their weapons are increasingly unreliable as shown last week when they accidentally bombed Belgorod. But they still have a large repository of dumb artillery. Ukraine has also suffered casualties.
I think there's good reason for modest expectations in the planned upcoming Ukrainian offensive. The Russians have had time to establish defensive works like minefields, and even green conscripts can successfully man a trench as opposed to carry out attack movements. Certainly, Ukraine does have better equipment, but Western tanks are better than Russian tanks; they're not invincible. I'd be happy if I'm underestimating them and they cause a collapse on the Russian front; that would certainly end the war quicker.
Of course, another way to end the war quicker is providing aircraft to further improve Ukraine's punching power, more HIMARS, more JDAM kits, to create precise fire support and destroy Russian lines so that Ukraine can punch through their defenses. Incrementalism costs more in the long run, I'm in favor of ruining Putin and destroying Russian imperial ambitions - the world would be better off with it gone.
Thanks for the question, Luke. Slava Ukraini!
SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King
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mariacallous · 2 years
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By many accounts, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already a colossal failure. The confirmed losses of destroyed and abandoned tanks and other armor alone exceed the entire army of a decent-sized Central or Eastern European country, and the rate of loss doesn’t look likely to be reversed anytime soon. Citing sources close to the Kremlin, Russian independent media has reported 90,000 irrecoverably lost soldiers, including battlefield and hospital deaths plus injuries severe enough to prevent them from ever fighting again. These losses now exceed those incurred during Russia’s wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya, politically devastating conflicts that left deep scars on Russian society that have still not healed today. What’s more, it took Russia 10 years to accumulate its losses in Afghanistan, whereas it has only been fighting in Ukraine for eight months.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization,” which he recently promised will be over in two weeks just before the regular annual military draft begins, has also been a failure on all levels. Russian social media is full of clips of fresh conscripts facing squalor in hastily thrown up tents and cold abandoned barracks without food, uniforms, sanitation, equipment, or commanders, left to fend for themselves or survive on parcels brought by their relatives. As men are grabbed from the streets and sent right to the front with only a cursory training course at best, their relatives are expected to cough up money for basic items that are supposed to be provided by the army, such as first-aid kits or winter clothes.
For hundreds of thousands of Russian families, the war is not only an immediate threat to their livelihoods, as sole breadwinners are thrown into battles without regard for their dependents, but also a massive economic burden. On Telegram, chat groups with hundreds of members are popping up where wives and fiancés exchange tips on where to buy armor and helmets on the cheap while sharing their growing desperation about the chaotic nature of mobilization.
None of this should come as a surprise to anyone who’s been watching Russia. Generals have always treated their military districts as personal fiefdoms and conscripts like serfs existing for the sole purpose of their higher-ups’ enrichment. Ironically, one of the loudest pro-war critics of the Russian Defense Ministry for mismanagement of resources is former Army Gen. Andrey Gurulyov, now a member of the Russian Duma under U.S. sanctions. During his time as a military commander, Gurulyov was himself charged with “labor slavery” involving conscripts. The charges were dismissed, and he went on several tours in Syria. It’s far from an isolated case.
Corruption lies at the heart of the Russian military’s dysfunction on and off the battlefield. BBC News Russian found at least 559 documentable cases of criminal loss of property in the army since 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine. Quartermasters have pilfered uniforms, boots, winter gear, and sleeping bags by the truckload. Hundreds of thousands of uniforms that were supposed to go to the newly mobilized have suddenly been reported as missing. Corruption goes all the way down the chain of command. The scale of extortion by local commanders of the newly mobilized appears to be so large that even popular pro-war bloggers are complaining about it.
Investigative reporters and anti-corruption activists have documented the extravagant palaces owned by Russia’s military elite, only to be jailed or driven to exile for their work. Now, some pro-Kremlin bloggers are adopting the same rhetoric, but it’s too little and too late to salvage Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even if their pleas are taken seriously in the Kremlin, a country cannot launch a complete top-to-bottom overhaul of its military, including replacement of the leadership and the sacking of thousands of officers, while in the middle of an all-out war.
Russia’s military disaster will therefore continue to unfold. And it’s getting much closer to many Russians at home, for whom the war has been something between television entertainment and a distant rumble. Until the start of Putin’s mobilization on Sept. 21, Moscow, St. Petersburg, and their surrounding regions were largely spared from providing soldiers for the war, which was crucial for upholding the optics of life carrying on as “normal” for middle-class Russians. Meanwhile, ethnically non-Russian regions provided the cannon fodder, not least because the military was long one of the few dependable sources of income there. As a result, men from Dagestan, Buryatia, and Russia’s Far East have dominated the casualty lists, especially when one compares the number of deaths in relation to the total population.
No matter what they tell pollsters—and whether they support Putin’s imperial war or not—it’s clear that the majority of Russian men don’t want to go anywhere near the front. If they did, they’d have joined the “volunteer” battalions set up since the Ukrainians first beat back the Russians in March, battalions that mostly failed to materialize. And the Russian Defense Ministry wouldn’t be having such a hard time reaching even the initially announced target of 300,000 new conscripts.
What’s more, mobilization has irrevocably broken the social contract wedding Russians to their regime, a modicum of stability and prosperity in exchange for complete disengagement from politics. Even the most loyal servants of the regime do not appear to be safe now, as demonstrated by the mobilization of one of the department heads at the Moscow mayor’s office. Russian social media is brimming with videos of police rounding up men for mobilization at offices, markets, and metro stations. The scale of it is impossible to ignore, and belies initial attempts by the regime’s propagandists on television and elsewhere to dismiss it as isolated cases of a few overzealous draft officers.
Now, it’s glaringly obvious that the indiscriminate rounding up is a feature, not a bug, of Putin’s attempt to plug in the holes on the front in Ukraine. Body bags containing the remains of the freshly mobilized—often inexperienced and untrained—are already returning to Russia. Meanwhile, military installations and infrastructure in Belgorod, a Russian city some 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border where many of the mobilized are being assembled, is now under daily shelling by Ukraine. The entire myth of Putin’s infallibility is coming apart: Russia’s much vaunted military prowess, the “stability” he promised in his first terms as president, the supposedly omnipotent propaganda which is now forced to make U-turns and admit previously unthinkable retreats, the “power vertical” now torn apart by infighting among Putin’s associates, and a population lined up behind its president.
What does this mean going forward? Putin’s final and irreversible retreat from Ukraine seems like a fantastical notion. But it wouldn’t be the first time post-Soviet Russia has admitted a humiliating military defeat. In the mid-1990s, Russia was beaten by a much smaller force in the First Chechen War, after launching an ill-thought out assault on Grozny, Chechnya’s capital, based on poor intelligence and sheer hubris. As hard a hit as it was to their imperial pride, leading politicians and media figures found it in themselves to say to the Russian public: The war is over and we lost. Many of those people are still around today, including top military commanders like Anatoly Kulikov, who managed the ceasefires and retreats.
If that precedent offers some hope that reason and reality could again prevail, it also serves as a warning. Defeat in Chechnya set off a wave of ultranationalist resentment, the same obsession with humiliation and revenge that infuses Putin’s speeches about Ukraine and defines so much of the Russian debate today. Unless Russia faces a national reckoning after losing the war in Ukraine—something akin to Germany’s reinvention after World War II—the cycle of imperial resentment and revanchism will only repeat itself.
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ravenkings · 2 years
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The Russians killed civilians in Andriivka, and they ransacked and looted houses. The locals told us something else the Russians had done: One day they took mopeds and bicycles out of some of the yards and rode around on them in the street like children, filming one another with their phones and laughing with delight, as if they’d gotten some long-awaited birthday present.
A few days earlier we were in Bucha, a suburb northwest of Kyiv that was subjected to an infamously brutal occupation. The people there told us that when the first Russian convoy entered the town, the troops asked if they were in Kyiv; they could not believe that such idyllic parks and cottages could exist outside a capital. Then they looted the local houses thoroughly. They took money, cheap electronics, alcohol, clothes and watches. But, the locals said, they seemed perplexed by the robotic vacuum cleaners, and they always left those.
One resident, who told me that she was taken hostage by the Russian soldiers in her house, said they could not get over the fact that she had two bathrooms and kept insisting that she must have more people living with her.
This war is Vladimir Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the massive losses of troops and tanks but because Mr. Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and politically inferior.
Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.
–Yegor Firsov, “Ukraine’s Russian ‘Liberators’ Are Seeing That We Live Better Than They Do,” The New York Times, August 22, 2022.
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ukrainenews · 1 year
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Daily Wrap Up January 9, 2023
Under the cut:
Ukraine’s Kharkiv region was targeted with a missile strike and shelling on Monday, the head of the Kharkiv regional state administration said on Telegram.
The number of people killed in Monday’s missile strike on the Kharkiv region has risen to two, the head of the regional administration, Oleh Syniehubov, said on Telegram.
Russian troops are making another attempt to advance on the town of Soledar in the eastern Donbas region, according to Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has dismissed rumors of a possible second wave of mobilization in Russia.
“The area around the eastern Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Soledar is "one of the bloodiest places on the front line," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address Sunday. Bakhmut has become perhaps the most contested and kinetic part of the 1,300- kilometer (800 mile) front line in Ukraine and the scene of some of the fiercest fighting of the war.
“Ukraine’s Kharkiv region was targeted with a missile strike and shelling on Monday, the head of the Kharkiv regional state administration said on Telegram.
"The enemy shelled the settlements of the Chuhuiv and Kupyansk districts with artillery, tanks and mortars," Oleg Sinegubov said about the region in Ukraine’s east.
"In Kupyansk, as a result of enemy strikes, utility buildings were damaged, a fire broke out. In the village of Vovchansky Khutory, Chuhuiv district, a private residential building was destroyed due to shelling," he added.
Sinegubov said that a missile strike from the S-300 air defense system hit a local market in the village of Shevchenkove, Kupyansk district.
"According to the Regional Center for Emergency Medical Care, 7 civilians were injured as a result of a missile strike on the village of Shevchenkove. Among them is a 13-year-old girl," he said.
Sinegubov added that a 60-year-old woman had also died due to the missile strike and all other victims were hospitalized.”-via CNN
~
“The number of people killed in Monday’s missile strike on the Kharkiv region has risen to two, the head of the regional administration, Oleh Syniehubov, said on Telegram.
“According to the updated information, 6 people were wounded as a result of a strike on the settlement of Shevchenkove. Two more people were killed,” Syniehubov said. “Among wounded there is a child who received a shrapnel wound to the neck. The girl was immediately sent for surgery. Now doctors are fighting for her life.”
The village of Shevchenkove was liberated in September after more than six months of Russian occupation.”-via CNN
~
“Russian troops are making another attempt to advance on the town of Soledar in the eastern Donbas region, according to Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar.
In a statement on Telegram, Maliar said:
After an unsuccessful attempt to capture Soledar and retreat, the enemy regrouped their forces, replenished losses, redeployed additional assault units, changed tactics and launched a powerful assault.
Bakhmut and the neighbouring town of Soledar have been the focus of intense efforts by Moscow, spearheaded by the Wagner mercenary group, to make progress in an area where Russian forces have been trying desperately to advance since early summer.
In recent days, Russian attacks have focused on Soledar in an apparent effort to cut off the town. Russian forces have engaged a large number of assault groups formed out of the best reserves of the Wagner group, Maliar said.
She added:
The enemy is advancing literally on the corpses of their own soldiers, massively using artillery, multiple rocket launchers and mortars, covering even their own fighters with fire.”
-via The Guardian
~
“Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has dismissed rumors of a possible second wave of mobilization in Russia.
"The primary source is the authorities headed by the President of the Russian Federation," Peskov said on a conference call with reporters.
"One shouldn’t pay so much attention to Telegram channels," he told journalists on Monday.
Moscow announced the end of conscription within the so-called "partial mobilization" late in October when, according to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the draft’s target of recruiting 300,000 personnel had been met.”-via CNN
~
“”The area around the eastern Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Soledar is "one of the bloodiest places on the front line," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address Sunday.
"There is no such piece of land near these two cities, where the occupier would not have given his life for the crazy ideas of the masters of the Russian regime," Zelensky said.
Bakhmut has become perhaps the most contested and kinetic part of the 1,300- kilometer (800 mile) front line in Ukraine and the scene of some of the fiercest fighting of the war.
The greater Donetsk region, where Bakhmut and Soledar are located, has been held by Russian-backed separatists since 2014 and is one of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims as Russian territory in violation of international law.
However, the Ukrainian President said Sunday that the two cities were "holding out" and "the situation on the front line has not changed significantly in the first week of the year."
"Bakhmut is holding out against all odds. Although most of the city is destroyed by Russian strikes, our warriors repel constant attempts at Russian offensive there," he said.
"Soledar is holding out. Although there is even more destruction there and it is extremely hard."”-via CNN
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themagnificentmags · 11 months
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Saving this for fun later: a month ago I read a book (Out of the Dark by David Weber) and did not like it. and then I wrote an essay about it in the group chat.
I'm gonna actually give a book ANTI-rec here because I finished it last night and I'm still thinking about it: Out of the Dark by David Weber. tl;dr the last 10% of the book wrenches the genre away from hard sci fi in a way that undercuts the first 90% of the book and comes across as a huge ass-pull
The premise: aliens (the Shongairi) are attempting to invade modern-day Earth to bring it into the fold as one of their many pre-FTL slave/"client" states
The first 90% of the book is basically a brutal beatdown of humanity. The Shongairi start off by destroying every major city and military base via orbital kinetic strikes, then move in with ground troops across the world. Since it's military sci-fi there's a lot of enthusiasm over all the cool military tech humans have (fighter jets, tanks, machine guns) and some dubious politics about US intervention in afghanistan/iran (again par for the course), but the overarching theme, over and over, is that despite any individual battles humans win, they always are losing overall -- even if the Shongairi are comically unused to fighting anything more sophisticated than crossbows and plate armor, they always control orbit and frequently use more orbital bombardment to deal with human insurrection. Again: it is brought up by basically every POV character that it is completely impossible for humans to win the war, but every human of course chooses to go down fighting. (There are a lot of sad dads with dead wives and children.)
Eventually the Shongairi decide to cut their losses and start working on how to kill all humans without getting in trouble with their bosses (they try to develop a bioweapon and are thwarted, then they decide to pull out their troops and just crack the planet with massive bombardment). However, only now, like 4 months into the invasion, 90% of the way through the book, does one of the secondary characters show up with a solution: actually, the entire time, he's been Vlad-the-Impaler Dracula, and he has magic powers that can kill entire Shongairi bases, steal their retreating ships, and capture their flagship (including "neural education" tech to train humans in galactic tech and the intended industrial base for Earth-the-client-state.
So instead of, like, a heavy and kinda depressing alien invasion novel, we get an 11th hour shift to fantasy when it was not remotely foreshadowed (yeah he's good at woodcraft/stealth, yeah he's a little weird and possessive of the POV character that interacted with him but TBH I thought he was just gay, yeah I looked it up after and it says the name he gives is one of Vlad's brothers/father/whatever) and like! Why now! Why not 4 months ago before billions more people died! Who gives a shit what the rest of the cast have been doing, them trying to survive in the unpopulated wilderness of South Carolina/Russia/Romania literally doesn't matter when fuckin Dracula could have saved the day any time! It just completely undercut the stakes of the rest of the novel.
also at the very end of the novel someone had squished a full mosquito between the pages. chefs kiss
if it had been the middle of the book turning point (or, to be fair, if it wasn't rather dry military sci fi that I was already skimming the "play with military toys" bits), I think I could have enjoyed the twist, even! like it's a cool concept! You just can't do it in hard sci fi yknow?
I think there's also a connection somewhere between the Ur-Fascism [Fascist societies rhetorically cast their enemies as "at the same time too strong and too weak".] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism#Umberto_Eco) with how the Shongairi occupy the equal categories of hypercompetent interstellar conquerors and comedically incompetent commanders and footsoldiers, who throughout the course of the novel never even discover that humans can hear their stealth drones coming and react to counter them. They're strong when the story calls for humans to lose, and weak when the story calls for humans to win.
Ok I should get back to work but I have one more gripe. The pacing on the Dracula reveal is also fucked. The reveal, from the reader's POV, is: Romania POV character has most of the civilians he's protecting killed by Shongairi and he nearly dies. Dracula-as-human says "ok we're [me and my elite Romanian army unit] gonna Really kick their ass now" and POV army guy demands to go with them. Cut to aliens getting killed mysteriously. Cut to aliens in orbit saying "they were killed so mysteriously, go on high alert! Also they stole some tech and tortured the lead scientist alien for info". Cut to some Carolina crew filler. Cut to aliens getting killed mysteriously, this time the soon to be dead alien sees some gas, maybe it's a gas? Some speculation about illusory hologram humans being backed by other alien factions. Cut to aliens in orbit saying "fuck this, everybody leave and we'll glass the planet." Cut to aliens in orbit realizing some of the returning alien ships were highjacked, and then Dracula and Co rock up to the alien flagship, magically paralyze everyone but the commander, and save the day wooooo!!!
In a different, better book, we could have spent so much more time on like getting to know Dracula and his newly made vamps, doing prep and buildup for highjacking the ships, etc, but instead the writing is contorted to preserve the twist for the reader as long as possible. No dramatic irony, no tension on "but can they make it?", no possiblity to do character building with Dracula since preserving the twist is more important.
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sleepysera · 2 years
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5.23.22 Headlines
WORLD NEWS
Ukraine: Russian Soldier Vadim Shishimarin jailed for life over war crime (BBC)
“A court in Ukraine has jailed a Russian tank commander for life for killing a civilian at the first war crimes trial since the invasion. Captured soldier Sgt Vadim Shishimarin was convicted of killing Oleksandr Shelipov, 62, in the north-eastern village of Chupakhivka on 28 February. He admitted shooting Mr Shelipov but said he had been acting on orders and asked forgiveness of the man's widow. Many other alleged war crimes are being investigated by Ukraine.”
Iran: Dozens feared trapped after 10-story building collapses in Iran (BBC)
“Six people have been killed and dozens more are thought to be trapped after an unfinished building collapsed in south-west Iran, state media report. The Iranian Red Crescent said rescue teams had pulled 32 survivors from the rubble of the 10-storey Metropol office block in Abadan. Pictures showed that concrete floors and steel beams had fallen on to the street below, crushing several cars.”
Climate Crisis: South Asia’s intense heat wave a ‘sign of things to come’ (AP)
“The devastating heat wave which has baked India and Pakistan in recent months was made more likely due to climate change, according to a study by an international group of scientists on Monday. This, they say, is a glimpse of what the future holds for the region. The World Weather Attribution group analyzed historical weather data and suggested that early, long heat waves that impact a massive geographical area are rare, once-a-century events.”
US NEWS
Taiwan: Biden vows to defend Taiwan in apparent US policy shift (BBC)
“US President Joe Biden has warned China is "flirting with danger" over Taiwan, and vowed to intervene militarily to protect the island if it is attacked. Speaking in Japan, he appeared to contradict long-standing US policy in the region, although the White House insisted there had been no departure. Mr Biden drew a parallel between Taiwan and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, prompting an angry rebuke from Beijing.”
Environment: 4 people fall off California cliff; 1 dead, 2 badly hurt (AP)
“Four people fell off a Southern California ocean cliff before dawn Monday and a man was killed and two women were critically injured, authorities said. The fourth person, a man who suffered minor injuries, managed to climb back up from the beach below and alert a passing officer at about 4:30 a.m., said Capt. Steve Barber of the Palos Verdes Estates Police Department.”
Economy: Wall Street ends higher following 7 straight weeks of losses (AP)
“Stocks closed broadly higher Monday, an upbeat start to the week on Wall Street after seven weeks of declines that nearly ended the bull market that began in March 2020. The S&P 500 rose 1.9%, with technology and financial sector stocks doing much of the heavy lifting for the benchmark index. The Dow Industrial Average rose 2% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.6%.”
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reddancer1 · 4 months
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It's a war of attrition, but only one side is playing as Ukraine trades space for dead Russians
David Axe 15 January 2024 • 2:37pm
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has made it clear: he intends to keep his half-million troops fighting in Ukraine until Ukraine and its allies tire of fighting back.
“There will be peace when we … achieve our goals,” Putin said in a December press conference. “Victory will be ours.”
Western analysts have taken Putin’s words to mean that he, and Russia, are committed to a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine. A war where the balance of forces, and casualties, matters more than any bold maneuvers. In a war of attrition, the side that does the most killing usually wins.
But Russia’s military moves since Putin’s statements have made a mockery of the apparent plan. Maybe the Kremlin aims to wage a long war of attrition. But if so, it’s already losing. For Ukraine, that’s an opportunity. A way to win.
In a true war of attrition, a competent army would look for opportunities to kill enemy troops without risking its own. In Russia’s two-year-old wider war on Ukraine, that should mean bombardment.
In a chilling echo of World War I trench warfare, both sides in the current conflict are increasingly dug in along the 600-mile front line that threads through southern and eastern Ukraine. Both sides know where the other’s troops are, broadly speaking.
It’s straightforward, if not easy, for either side to target the other with ground-launched artillery and rockets, air-launched missiles and drones. And in a war of mutual bombardment, the Russians should have a massive advantage.
Even after suffering heavy losses, the Russians still have more munitions than the Ukrainians. A lot more. With domestic munitions supplies bolstered by North Korea, the Russians can probably fire 10,000 artillery shells a day; now that pro-Russian Republicans in the US Congress are withholding aid to Ukraine, the Ukrainians can probably fire a fifth as many.
But instead of digging in even deeper and taking aim at Ukrainian lines with thousands of howitzers, the Russian military has gone on the attack. All along the front line almost every day, mixed columns of Russian infantry and armored vehicles assault Ukrainian fortifications.
Every day, these columns get demolished. Exposed and battered by mines, artillery and drones, the Russians rarely gain any ground: when they do, it’s at enormous cost. In two months of nearly daily attacks on the Ukrainian garrison in the eastern city of Avdiivka, starting in October, a pair of Russian field armies lost more than 200 tanks and fighting vehicles and 13,000 soldiers – many killed, the rest maimed….
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The IC is not presenting an accurate picture of what is unfolding in Ukraine. The assessment pushes the claim that Russia is suffering massive losses because of the “Western-backed campaign.” This is intended to convey the message that there is still hope for Ukraine. But a proper “intel assessment” should have made the three fundamental points:
The uptick in Russian casualties since October is a consequence of Russia going on the offensive all along the line of contact and that Russia is making significant progress in pushing Ukrainian forces out of long held positions. Avdeevka is the most salient example.
There is no stalemate. Ukraine’s losses, as compared to Russia’s, are greater by a factor of at least 5 to 1, and Russia, unlike Ukraine, has ample reserves of troops, tanks, artillery pieces and ammunition.
Russia’s defense industry is operating on a war footing and is churning out massive numbers of tanks, armored personnel carriers, drones, planes, artillery and ammunition. The United State and NATO combined are producing only a fraction of what Russia is doing.
What about Russia’s 13,000 casualties? It is conceivable that Russia has 3,000 KIA and 10,000 WIA since October, but these losses are not reflected in social media and do not represent a degradation in Russia’s military power. Not so for Ukraine. Hell, even Zelensky told U.S. Senators he was going to draft 40 year old men. That means Ukraine’s losses are so great that they are being forced to dragoon men too old for the rigors of combat.
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cyarskj1899 · 7 months
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Twitter reacts to Ukraine's defense team quoting Pusha T's lyrics
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Pusha T seems quite popular in Ukraine, as its defense team cited some of his lyrics on its official Twitter account on Tuesday (Sept. 6).
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, with over one million followers, tweeted a chart illustrating Russia’s losses since the Ukrainian war started earlier this year. The caption contains lyrics from Pusha T’s “Numbers on the Boards” track from his 2013 debut solo album, My Name Is My Name. “I put numbers on the boards. @PUSHA_T. Total combat losses of the enemy from Feb. 24 to Sept. 7,” the tweet read. 
The chart displays that several Russian artilleries have been destroyed in battle, including 2,117 tanks, 4,556 armed combat vehicles, almost 300 military jets, and other heavy artilleries. The Ukrainian defense account also indicated that over 50,000 soldiers have allegedly been killed in battle.
The Virginia Beach rapper responded to the post on Wednesday (Sept. 7), pointing out Ukraine’s excellent musical preferences. “Great taste in music for the win,” he tweeted.
People on social media and hip hop fans were not shy about sharing their opinions about the Twitter account using Pusha’s lyrics. Most of the commenters were in shock at the tweet, such as Twitterer NekiasNBA, who said in disbelief, “This entire planet is a simulation.” Another commenter kay_mahapa, tweeted, “We live in a world where Pusha T lyrics are used in war.” A third person commented, “Yo, directly quoting Pusha T in the middle of a massive war is the heights of wildness. We are living in a simulation!”
Even the co-host of Hot 97‘s “Ebro in the Morning,” Ebro had to react to the unexpected tweet, saying, “Pusha T has won wars, so they [are] associating with the right rapper.”
Guapdad 4000 also responded to the viral post, saying, “The fact that there’s a Ukrainian intern somewhere designing digital assets to display a body count from [the] war in a friendly looking format is f**king wild to me. We [are] not even gone talk about the @PUSHA_T quote [goat emoji].”
How do you feel about this tweet?
The Ukrainian defense team’s post, Pusha’s tweet and its reactions can be found below:
“I put numbers on the boards.”@PUSHA_T Total combat losses of the enemy from Feb 24 to Sep 7: pic.twitter.com/mUC5NnLcpy — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 7, 2022
Great taste in music for the win… https://t.co/GKG2V6Jc4S — King Push (@PUSHA_T) September 7, 2022
this entire planet is a simulation https://t.co/sjTkHb4NTc — Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) September 7, 2022
We live in a world where Pusha T lyrics are used in war https://t.co/KpdkCLIajD — Lesilo Rula (@kay_mahapa) September 7, 2022
Yo, directly quoting Pusha T in the middle of a massive war is the heights of wildness. We are living in a simulation! https://t.co/XpPxEb2oJj — So… what now? 💭 (@tenilleclarke1) September 7, 2022
Pusha T has won wars, so they associating with the right rapper https://t.co/p82glzbOA5 — Kojo Ebro Odogwu (@oldmanebro) September 7, 2022
The fact that there’s a Ukrainian intern somewhere designing digital assets to display a body count from war in a friendly looking format is fucking wild to me. We not even gone talk about the @PUSHA_Tquote…🐐 https://t.co/ZWxUlScvFx — GUAP (@guapdad4000) September 7, 2022
Sent from my iPhone
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mariacallous · 1 year
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Meduza's The Beet: Dispatch from Dnipro
Hello, and welcome back to The Beet!
I’m Eilish Hart, the editor of this weekly dispatch from Meduza that brings original reporting from across Eurasia directly to your inbox. Last week’s story about Latvia’s shifting political winds is now available on our website. But you’ve probably already read it, because you’re a subscriber, right? If not, it’s never too late to sign up.
It’s been a bumper week for important appearances and remarks. At the Munich Security Conference last weekend, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris formally accused Russia of crimes against humanity, and the once-dithering German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Ukraine’s allies to supply more tanks and “prepare for a long war.” On Monday, Joe Biden unexpectedlyturned up in Kyiv, marking the first visit of a U.S. president to Ukraine in 15 years. The next day, Vladimir Putin gave a predictably bellicose state-of-the-nation speech, which contained nothing really new, aside from an announcement that Russia is “suspending” its role in the New START nuclear arms control treaty. Just hours later, Biden took to the stage outside Warsaw’s Royal Castle to reiterate NATO’s unity and America’s unwavering support for Ukraine. 
With all of these international heavy weights grabbing headlines and airtime, it’s important not to lose sight of the situation on ground in Ukraine. Russia’s full-scale invasion, which Moscow reportedly expected to last just three days but is now a year old, continues to take a massive human toll. Wagner Group mercenaries are closing in on the embattled city of Bakhmut, as the Ukrainian authorities try to persuade the city’s 5,000 remaining residents to evacuate. While Putin delivered his address on Tuesday, Russian forces shelled central Kherson, killing five people and injuring 16 more in a city Moscow claims for itself but does not control. 
The total confirmed number of civilians killed since February 2022 — 8,000 per the latest U.N. Human Rights Office data — is undoubtedly a fraction of the souls lost in Russia’s invasion. A December 2022 Associated Press investigation identified more than 10,000 new graves in Mariupol alone, but again this is an incomplete picture: the city’s exiled municipal government estimated months ago that at least 25,000 residents were killed during the Russian siege, and AP journalists learned that the real death toll might be three times higher. More than eight million Ukrainians have fled abroad as refugees, and another 5.3 million people are internally displaced. At least 153,000 have sought refuge in Dnipro, a city that just yesterday marked 40 days since a Russian airstrike on a residential building killed 46 people and left hundreds without a roof over their heads. In a dispatch for The Beet, journalist Aliide Naylor reports on how “Ukraine’s outpost” and its people are faring after one year of all-out war. 
Dispatch from Dnipro
By Aliide Naylor 
The Dnipro Metallurgical Plant was once a behemoth of Soviet production. Founded in the late 19th century, it was nationalized after the Bolsheviks took over the city and imposed the new regime. In an old medical building on the factory grounds, food supplies from the 1980s and red-and-orange Soviet posters still clutter the dusty basement. But upstairs its walls are covered in the tiny yellow-and-blue handprints of children from Mariupol, Donetsk, Melitopol, and other war-torn Ukrainian cities, who frolic in a foam-carpeted play area while their parents try not to disintegrate from the sheer scale of their losses.
“We are left without a past,” says 62-year-old Rimma Dorosheva from northern Donetsk, as she knits woolen socks for soldiers fighting on the frontline. Her own children live abroad, in Israel. She fled her home last March, leaving behind treasured memories. “Photographs of our children, our photographs, photographs of our parents, the graves of our parents on the other side. Now everything is unknown.”
“Tanya’s house was completely burned down,” Dorosheva continues, gesturing to a nearby woman. “A direct hit, right in front of her eyes. She stood and watched her house, which she had been building all her life with her husband, burn.” Dorosheva tries to wave Tanya over, but the woman hurries away. “She cries all the time,” Dorosheva says.
Dnipro has become a hub for evacuees from frontline cities, with Mariupol, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk all within a 320-kilometer (200-mile) radius. The Dnipro Metallurgical Plant is one of several factory buildings, schools, and other spaces converted into refugee housing across the city, which had a pre-war population of around one million. Its more than 150 residents are overwhelmingly women, according to Anna Datsenko and Lena Lagoda, the events organizer and project manager at the shelter, respectively. “Seventy percent are women and children,” says Lagoda. “Twenty to thirty percent are men.”
While soldiers also return to the city for medical treatment, the men here are mostly those who couldn’t fight in the first place — for example, due to medical conditions. The center is well equipped with washing machines, proper windows, and refrigerators, making it one of the better residences available to the displaced. “We receive very good support from many charitable foundations,” Lagoda explains. “Windows, beds, pillows — everything in order to make people more comfortable.” They’ve even managed to procure a large boiler. “We have been striving for a long time to be this warm,” she says.
Today, the center is hosting something of a party: a recently displaced woman from Bakhmut knits a scarf meant for a soldier at the front, while other women have made delicious varenyky, creamy fruit tarts, and layered honey cake. But keeping spirits high remains tough. “You’re a hostage of the situation you’re in,” a woman named Larysa says tearfully. “When you strove for what you had all your life and are left with nothing, […] you can’t sugarcoat it.”
‘We’d need to live in a bomb shelter’
Despite the relative safety, Dnipro’s residents still have to endure air-raid sirens several times a day. “If we constantly responded to the alarms, we’d need to live in a bomb shelter,” says Dorosheva, whose daughter gave her a whistle to blow in case she ever gets trapped under rubble. Over the course of a single day reporting this story, the city had six different air-raid alerts responding to threats from operational-tactical aviation and rocket launches from the Black Sea. 
Dnipro has suffered scores of missile attacks over the course of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Just last month, the city’s relative sense of security was upended when a missile slammed into a nine-story apartment block, tearing a massive crater through its core. Birds now fly in the empty space where people once lived. At least 46 died, and more than 460 emergency workers participated in the subsequent search-and-rescue operations. Cleanup is still ongoing.
“A rocket can hit here, there, anywhere,” says 57-year-old Dnipro resident Sergey as he surveys the ruins of the famous Yellow Kitchen. “No one is immune from this.” The missile passed just 100 meters (109 yards) from his friend’s home, Sergey says.“[The] glass flew out of the balcony [from the] force of the impact.” At least one refugee from eastern Ukraine was among the wounded: psychologist Olha Botvinova, who fled Donetsk in 2014 and then Kherson last spring, before ending up in Dnipro. “We’re starting again for the third time,” she told Deutsche Welle after surviving the blast.
The city plans to turn the area into a memorial square officially – something it’s already become organically as scattered stacks of bright, damp toys and flowers salute the space. Every day, people like Sergey come to stand and just look at the shattered building. Rebuilding the two destroyed sections and returning residents to their homes would only force them to relive the pain of the tragedy, Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov said in an interview. “How can you live near the place where your loved ones, relatives, friends, acquaintances died, and where there will always be a place of mourning? It will be hard for us to go back there,” resident Vladyslav Solovyov told ZN.UA.
The city pulled together in the midst of the crisis. “[It] became a kind of act of unification of all Dnipro residents and residents of other cities,” says Natalya Kozhina, the program director of the Dnipro-based Human Rights Group Sich. Ordinary citizens and volunteers helped with “debris removal, hot drinks, food, warm clothes, the collection of funds for the victims, [and providing] accommodation for the night,” Kozhina explains. “It’s impossible to list everything that was done.”
Dnipro residents have become experts at self-organizing, completely eschewing any fears they might have (few who opted to stay in Dnipro say they are scared) and helping refugees and frontline soldiers in whatever ways they can. 
In another factory in the city’s southeast, a group of 15 or so friends pour makeshift candles, chipping away at giant slabs of paraffin wax (their main expense) and then melting it down to submerge cardboard spiraled inside old food cans. They started this project around a month ago, just in their kitchens, before expanding the operation. They make around 350 candles every four hours, and volunteers take them to the frontlines by car.
Grassroots initiatives like these are Ukraine’s backbone today. “In Kyiv, in every big building, there’s a place on the first floor where everyone can bring their [cans] to make candles,” says 31-year-old Yefim who helps his mother, Viktoria, and her friends with the project. “We have to help, everybody helps if they can,” he continues. “We volunteer only because we want [to] — it’s not like some government organization.” Dnipro, he adds, is “like a small country” — a special type of “character” lives here.
Ukraine’s outpost
The flow of people in and out of Dnipro is almost normal. It’s a city constantly in flux. According to historian Andrii Portnov, who grew up here and authored Dnipro: An Entangled History of a European City, Dnipro has been a city of migrants “for centuries.” 
The Dnipro River, which cleaves Ukraine in half, was a key 16th-century trade route, and the city has attracted people from all over Europe since the late 18th century. “Then we have the First World War, when the city hosted a lot of refugees from the Western, let’s say, regions of the Russian Empire, and then the Second World War — so people were evacuated, and then went back,” Portnov explains. During the Nazi occupation, more than 20,000 of the city’s Jews were shot, but today Dnipro is home to one of the largest Jewish populations in Ukraine. 
Even the city’s name isn’t fixed. Previously known as Yekaterinoslav and then Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine’s parliament renamed it Dnipro only in 2016, in a concerted effort to break from the old Soviet identity imposed in the 1920s. Dnipropetrovsk — a rocket and missile manufacturing center — was off-limits to foreigners and even people from other parts of the USSR. The KGB maintained the highest possible level of secrecy over the “rocket city,” and its special status brought both an aura of mystery and very Soviet uniformity. Little information left the city, and foreign influence was kept to a minimum. Today, the local aerospace companies Pivdenmash and Pivdenne (among others) are Ukrainian state-owned and still in operation. Russian cruise missiles hit one plant last July, killing three people.
Twelve months into Russia’s full-scale invasion, some of the fiercest battles are raging east of the Dnipro River. Its historic rapids, where granite bedrock splits the deep water into fast flowing branches, gush around some 60 different islets and flow directly into the Zaporizhzhia region, where the Kakhovka Reservoir — which Russian forces are now reportedly draining — cools Europe’s largest nuclear power plant and provides locals with a vital source of drinking water. Further downstream still, it passes through Nikopol — the site of heavy artillery strikes this past week. While refugees have flocked to Dnipro from Ukraine’s eastern regions, local soldiers and volunteers trickle back in knowing that their city is very much on the frontlines; the Dnipro-Holovnyi railway station swarms with people in camo, including one man on flimsy crutches carefully picking his way through the ice, one foot wrapped in a thick, knitted sock. 
The city’s wealth, plentiful hospitals, and proximity to Russia-occupied territories have granted it the moniker of “Ukraine’s outpost.” 
“People from Dnipro went first — [they were] the first line of soldiers [in 2014] because they were very aware of this dangerous situation,” says journalist Olena Andriushchenko, the author of a forthcoming book about wartime Dnipro. She recalls Russia’s more covert invasion after the Euromaidan Revolution in 2014, and the subsequent influx of internally displaced persons. “We started to receive a lot of refugees, and we understood that it’s very serious and we need to protect our nationality, our identity,” Andriushchenko says. Pro-Russia political movements actually lost support in parts of Ukraine, and the weaker central government back then meant that local politicians could take the reins. 
The political and business elites carved out a new path for the city (Dnipro produced top Ukrainian oligarchs such as Victor Pinchuk and former Governor Ihor Kolomoisky). They “clearly understood that their own economic future could be more or less safe only in Ukraine,” says Portnov. Kolomoisky and Filatov enjoyed a notoriously close relationship as former business partners, and both personally bankrolled volunteer battalions, Politico Europe reported last year. Researcher Olena Ishchenko even claims that “Kolomoisky was the guarantor of the city’s stability.” (The U.S. sanctioned Kolomoiskiy in 2021, and he was recently targeted in nationwide anti-corruption raids.) 
While the elite’s political alignment was clear, grassroots support cemented it further still. Local soccer fans were broadly pro-Euromaidan, and Dnipro residents began expressing their Ukrainian identity more openly and proudly. “[They] started to wear Ukraine’s symbols. [...] I saw a lot of Ukrainian flags on balconies,” Andriushchenko recalls. Today, even those who grew up speaking Russian are making deliberate efforts to speak Ukrainian. “A lot of people, especially old people, spoke Russian, and it was hard for them to change [languages]. But still, they started to speak Ukrainian, and it was impressive,” says Andriushchenko.
The shift is most prominently embodied in the city’s giant Hotel Parus — an unfinished Brezhnev-era structure that has a massive blue-and-yellow trident (Ukraine’s coat of arms) splashed across its façade. Dnipro is also home to Ukraine’s first museum dedicated to the war in the Donbas and has an avenue commemorating the Heavenly Hundred who died on Kyiv’s Independence Square in February 2014. This February 20, city officials came to lay flowers of varying shades of blue and yellow at the Heavenly Hundred memorial.
“Until recently, those new places somehow coexisted with [primarily] Soviet memorials,” says Portnov. Most of Dnipro’s monuments and museums were constructed after World War II, he explains, and there is almost nothing left from the pre-Soviet period. Now, however, many of the city’s Soviet-era monuments have been removed. Statues of writer Maxim Gorky and pilot Valery Chkalov were carefully dismantled last December, in stark contrast to the toppling of the massive Vladimir Lenin monument in the city’s center in 2014. 
Nine years later, there’s simply a wide-open space where the Russian revolutionary once stood. But perhaps a tabula rasa suits this city best. With such a diverse and collectively motivated population, this is one of its strengths — shades of grey in a country upon which the Kremlin has attempted to impose black-and-white identities. “It’s not [a] city that wants to tell you or me its history,” Portnov concludes.
Rather, it’s emblematic of the “people’s war” that the entire country is fighting, no matter their roots. For refugees from Ukraine’s east, “one problem that unites us is that we’re here,” says Rimma Dorosheva from Donetsk. “And therefore we sort of understand each other.” 
Thanks for reading! 
If you enjoyed The Beet’s recent story about the Hungarian government’s cozy wartime relationship with Moscow, check out the latest episode of The Naked Pravda, Meduza in English’s podcast, for more on Russian influence in Hungary. Until next time,
Eilish
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newstfionline · 10 months
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Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Two supermoons in August mean double the stargazing fun (AP) The cosmos is offering up a double feature in August: a pair of supermoons culminating in a rare blue moon. Catch the first show Tuesday evening as the full moon rises in the southeast, appearing slightly brighter and bigger than normal. That’s because it will be closer than usual, just 222,159 miles (357,530 kilometers) away, thus the supermoon label. The moon will be even closer the night of Aug. 30—a scant 222,043 miles (357,344 kilometers) distant. Because it’s the second full moon in the same month, it will be what’s called a blue moon. The last time two full supermoons graced the sky in the same month was in 2018. It won’t happen again until 2037.
The Race for the Melting Arctic (WSJ) On patrol in the Bering Sea last fall, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted seven Chinese and Russian vessels steaming through the frigid waters in a double line near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Russian warships and Chinese research vessels aren’t uncommon in a region that includes the Aleutians, a strategic chain of volcanic islands that divides the Pacific Ocean from the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean. “But to see these combatants form up in a surface action group together and steam together, that’s what’s rare,” said Rear Adm. Nathan Moore. Once a lonely and largely impassable maritime expanse where countries worked together to extract natural resources, the Arctic is increasingly contested territory. As sea ice melts and traffic increases on the southern edges of the Arctic Ocean, governments are maneuvering in ways that mirror the great-power rivalries seen in lower latitudes. In recent months, Russian bombers have increased their patrols over the Arctic and have probed further south. Norway’s intelligence service said that with Russia’s conventional forces weakened by the war in Ukraine, its strategic weapons are taking on greater importance, among them the nuclear-armed submarines of Russia’s Northern Fleet. More Russian-flagged commercial and government vessels are active in Arctic waters. In response, the U.S. is beefing up its presence in the Arctic by adding to its polar icebreakers. The U.S. has just one icebreaker in the region for only part of the year, compared with three dozen owned by Russia.
Heat Is Costing the U.S. Economy Billions in Lost Productivity (NYT) As much of the United States swelters under record heat, Amazon drivers and warehouse workers have gone on strike in part to protest working conditions that can exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit. On triple-digit days in Orlando, utility crews are postponing checks for gas leaks, since digging outdoors dressed in heavy safety gear could endanger their lives. Even in Michigan, on the nation’s northern border, construction crews are working shortened days because of heat. Extreme heat is regularly affecting workers beyond expected industries like agriculture and construction. Sizzling temperatures are causing problems for those who work in factories, warehouses and restaurants and also for employees of airlines and telecommunications firms, delivery services and energy companies. The cost is high. In 2021, more than 2.5 billion hours of labor in the U.S. agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and service sectors were lost to heat exposure, according to data compiled by The Lancet. Another report found that in 2020, the loss of labor as a result of heat exposure cost the economy about $100 billion, a figure projected to grow to $500 billion annually by 2050.
Miami’s Overflowing Septic Tanks and Trash Piles Test Appeal to Rich (Bloomberg) Miami wants to attract even more out-of-state workers and wealthy newcomers like hedge fund tycoon Ken Griffin. But first, County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava faces a huge environmental problem: overflowing garbage heaps and septic tanks. Some of greater Miami’s massive landfills, known by clever names like Mount Trashmore, will run out of space by 2026, according to a report from Cava’s office. More urgent are the septic systems that serve the city’s 2.7 million residents. Many of those front-yard sewage tanks overflow when it rains, releasing fecal bacteria and other contaminants that transform patches of tropical paradise into toxic swamps that kill fish and sicken people.
‘You do it or we do it’ (NYT) Mexico has been one of America’s closest allies for years under both Democratic and Republican administrations, even Donald Trump’s. That may be changing. Republican officials and voters have not only expressed criticisms of Mexico but also outright hostility against America’s southern neighbor. The starkest example involves repeated calls by Republican presidential candidates to bomb Mexico or unilaterally send troops there to stop the illegal drug trade, which would be an act of war. Trump led the way: He asked defense officials about striking Mexico with missiles while he was president, and during the 2024 presidential campaign he has supported military action. Ron DeSantis has called for using deadly force and a naval blockade of Mexican ports to stop drug traffickers. More moderate candidates, like Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, have also backed using the military against drug cartels in Mexico. “You know what you tell the Mexican president? ‘Either you do it or we do it,’” Haley said in March. “But we are not going to let all of this lawlessness continue to happen.” “In 35 years, this takes the prize as the stupidest idea I have ever heard,” said Jonathan Caulkins at Carnegie Mellon University. In addition to the likely humanitarian toll and the hit to U.S. standing in the world, any incursion into Mexico could worsen the same problems Republicans are trying to address. To the extent that the U.S. has succeeded in stemming illegal immigration and drugs in recent years, it has relied on Mexico’s close cooperation.
In Odesa, Attacks Stoke Hatred of Russia (NYT) Standing on a bridge overlooking the road to Odesa’s main port, Nina Sulzhenko surveyed the damage wrought by a recent Russian missile strike: The House of Scientists, one of the Ukrainian city’s best-loved buildings, was in shambles. The mansion’s destroyed gardens spilled down over a ruined residential complex, and burned bricks lay strewn across the sidewalk. “I feel pain, and I want revenge,” said Ms. Sulzhenko, 74. “I don’t have the words to say what we should do to them.” Hers was a common sentiment in Odesa this past week after a series of missile strikes damaged the city’s port and 29 historic buildings in its Belle Époque city center, including the Transfiguration Cathedral, one of Ukraine’s largest. Odesa plays an important role in the mind of imperial Russians, and especially President Vladimir V. Putin, who views it as an integral part of Russian culture. But if Mr. Putin believed that Odesans would feel a reciprocal bond, he could not have been more mistaken, residents and city officials interviewed this past week said. Especially after the recent spate of missile attacks.
Russia Says 2 Drones Hit Buildings in Moscow in Latest Wave of Attacks (NYT/NBC News) The Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had fired at least three drones at Moscow, demonstrating that few places are off limits after more than 17 months of war. One drone was destroyed in Odintsovo, outside Moscow, the Defense Ministry said, adding that two others struck commercial buildings in the capital after being intercepted by Russian air defenses. There were no injuries, Moscow’s mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, said in a post on the Telegram messaging app, but video footage from Russian state media showed blown-out windows and twisted beams in one of Moscow’s premier skyscrapers. Kyiv has stopped short of taking responsibility for the drone attacks, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested Sunday this could mark a new chapter. “Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia—to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process,” Zelenskyy said Sunday in his nightly video address. Last week, a drone fell in the center of the capital near the defense ministry headquarters, while another gutted a few upper floors of another building.
ISIL claims responsibility for Pakistan bombing that killed 54 people (Al Jazeera) The death toll from a massive suicide bombing that targeted an election in the border district of Bajaur has risen to 54, as Pakistan held funerals and the government promised to hunt down those behind the attack. Nearly 200 people were wounded in Sunday’s bombing claimed by the ISIL (ISIS) armed group on Monday. Around 400 members of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) party—a key government coalition partner headed by hardline politician Fazlur Rehman—were waiting on Sunday for speeches to begin when a bomber detonated a vest packed with explosives near the front stage.
11 dead and 27 missing in flooding around Beijing after days of rain (AP) Chinese state media report 11 people have died and 27 are missing amid flooding in the mountains surrounding the capital Beijing. Days of heavy rains have prompted authorities to close train stations and evacuate people in vulnerable communities to school gyms, state broadcaster CCTV reported Tuesday. Homes have been flooded, roads torn apart and cars piled into stacks. The level of rainfall is highly unusual for Beijing, which generally enjoys a moderate, dry climate. Flooding in other parts of northern China that rarely see such large amounts of rain have led to scores of deaths.
Legacy of corruption (Foreign Policy) The head of Lebanon’s central bank stepped down on Monday amid rampant corruption allegations and one of the nation’s worst financial crises in history. Riad Salameh, age 73, served at the country’s economic helm for 30 years. He came to power only three years after the nation’s 15-year civil war ended, at a time when international aid was flooding the country. Under his leadership, though, Lebanon’s currency lost 98 percent of its value, unemployment skyrocketed, and food prices increased by more than 600 percent. Salameh is currently under investigation for embezzlement in numerous countries, having borrowed money to pay existing creditors. He continues to deny the allegations, which many economic experts have compared to a Ponzi scheme.
Thousands take to streets in Gaza in rare public display of discontent with Hamas (AP) Several thousand people briefly took to the streets across the Gaza Strip on Sunday to protest chronic power outages and difficult living conditions, providing a rare public show of discontent with the territory’s Hamas government. Hamas security forces quickly dispersed the gatherings. Marches took place in Gaza City, the southern town of Khan Younis and other locations, chanting “what a shame” and in one place burning Hamas flags, before police moved in and broke up the protests. Hamas rules Gaza with an iron fist, barring most demonstrations and quickly stamping out public displays of dissent. The Islamic militant group seized control of Gaza in 2007 from the forces of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, prompting Israel and Egypt to impose a crippling blockade on the territory. The closure has devastated Gaza’s economy, sent unemployment skyrocketing and led to frequent power outages. During the current heat wave, people have been receiving four to six hours of power a day due to heavy demand.
West African nations threaten to use force if Niger’s president isn’t reinstated within a week (AP) West African nations have given Niger’s coup leaders one week to reinstate the country’s democratically elected president and have threatened to use force if the demands aren’t met. The announcement came at the end of an emergency meeting of West African countries Sunday in Nigeria, where the regional bloc, known as ECOWAS, convened to respond to last week’s military takeover. President Mohamed Bazoum remains under house arrest and has yet to resign. “In the event the authority’s demands are not met within one week, (the bloc will) take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. Such measures may include the use of force,” said the statement. The bloc also imposed strict sanctions, including suspending all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS member states and Niger and freezing of assets in regional central banks.
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