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scripttorture · 4 years

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(1/2) I am writing a fantasy story and I wanted to have a character who undergoes a type of solitary confinement but not really? They would be isolated from practically everything except to analyse data and send reports but never receive any form of communication other than orders. But I was on the fence of whether or not I wanted to have them have a magical "bond" with their twin, meaning they would be able to sense each other and know they were alive but be unable to communicate anything else

(2/2) Solitary confinement cont: though, I guess they could sometimes be able to communicate emotions if they were feeling it really strongly. would this still be considered solitary confinement? Would the symptoms be lessened? I’m planning for them to stay in that situation for at least ten years if not more. Would it even matter if they could sense their twin, or would they be affected just as “strongly” as if they were alone? Also, what /would/ be a realistic reaction to this kind of torture?(3/?) Solitary confine cont: sorry for being such a bother. but i’m also not sure if this will be a factor in predicting symptoms in my character, but they would be forced to sit in one place and be unable to move anywhere else other than the desk they work at. They will still be fed and such; the food will come to them.(4/?) solitary confin cont: sorry i forgot to ask in the last one: would the character still be close to the twin after they got out? With or without the bond? Would further isolating themselves except from the people they used to be very close to before the confinement be a reasonable reaction to this experience? Would social isolation be a feasible reaction period? Would it still be possible for them to get better and heal? Would it be realistic for them to continue living instead of suicide?

OK so there are a lot of complicated and interrelated questions here. Given the story you’ve described I think the best thing I can do is start with the problems in the scenario as it is, then suggest some changes and then talk about long term effects for a survivable, altered scenario.

What you’re describing is solitary confinement and you’re also describing other forms of torture. You’re underestimating the damage of both by a really large degree.

And that’s not your fault. It’s hard to find good information on this stuff; that’s why I’m here.

Honestly I think this would kill your character in under a year even if they didn’t attempt suicide.

You’re not describing a stress position. But being forcibly confined to a chair 24/7 is a recipe for pressure sores. Combine that with whatever solution they have for basic excretion and- well even the best scenario I can think of (regularly changed adult diapers) would lead to serious infection.

Combine that with the sleep deprivation being trapped in this position would cause and you have recurrent, serious infections that would probably lead to death.

I haven’t factored in solitary confinement at all yet. The ‘safe’ period for solitary is about a week. Anything after that is prolonged. Ten years is incredibly extreme.

And the research we have on solitary clearly indicates that the effects are even worse when the victims are children (which includes teenagers). It’s also worse when other tortures or elements of neglect are present.

And I’ve only really mentioned one possible injury that a long term restraint torture like this could cause.

I don’t want to go overboard hammering this home. We’re taught to underestimate the damage ‘clean’ tortures like solitary confinement and the restraint tortures you described do. You get the idea.

You can read more about solitary confinement over here.

You can read more about sleep deprivation here.

First of all I really think you need to reduce your time frame by at least a factor of ten. Very few people survive ten years of sustained abuse.

Yes it is possible. People in forced labour scenarios or slavery do sometimes survive this long. But your scenario is inflicting constant physical damage over that time period. A year in captivity is a much more reasonable time frame.

If keeping the characters separated for ten years is important then you can still keep that separation while making sure the character is only tortured for a year or less.

This character’s effectively enslaved and it sounds like a modern or sci fi setting.

That often involves moving people across state or national boundaries and taking their documentation away. Establishing someone’s identity and getting replacement documents after they’re released can take a very long time. Especially if the country in question has policies that require paying for documentation.

It can get even more complicated if there’s a language barrier in play.

If slavery victims are rescued by police and are willing to testify that often requires staying in a particular area. If the survivors are in a witness protection program of some kind (not uncommon because a lot of these people are under threat from other slavers) then the survivors might not have much control over where they’re staying or for how long.

If this is big enough that national security might be brought up then they might not even be allowed to contact anyone.

Court cases involving slavers and gangs can easily take up several years.

Add on top of this the severe symptoms that any torture survivors suffer from which can lead to people being institutionalised and you have a lot of reasons why these twins might not have been able to contact or see each other for ten years.

This isn’t just more realistic, I think it would give you a stronger story as well. Because it gives the survivor twin things to do, allows them to develop as a separate person and you can use the things they choose to do to tell the audience about them.

When your character’s alone in a strange place and they’ve just been through hell what they do next tells the audience a lot. You can show their beliefs, their personality, their goals or priorities. You can show whether any of those have changed as a result of abuse.

Their core beliefs, the things they hold most dear, are unlikely to change. But torture can cause big changes in personality and perspective. The key thing to remember is that this change can’t be controlled. Torturers and slavers can’t ‘make’ a victim change in a way they want.

You might want to have a look at this post here on the common stereotypes around survivors and torturers.

Next I’d suggest you don’t describe the character as being constantly at a desk.

The majority of the lethal problems that could cause would be reduced hugely if the character can move around relatively freely for an hour or so a day. Even if this time is while they’re asleep.

I’d suggest a scenario where the character is removed to a cell for the night everyday and allowed between 6-8 hours rest every night.

Keep in mind that 6 hours would still be sleep deprivation with all the short and long term effects that causes.

The cell should be at least big enough for them to lie down comfortably, with appropriate bedding. They should also preferably have access to a bathroom with at least a toilet.

This would still be solitary confinement. The definition is less then 1-2 hours of human contact daily (some academics and law systems use less then 1 hour some use less then 2).

It has to be social contact. Being in the same room as someone who doesn’t respond doesn’t help and may actually make things worse. It doesn’t necessarily have to be based on verbal communication; based on what I’ve read it seems as though positive interaction would still help despite a language barrier.

But a nebulous magical connection that only really says ‘your twin is still alive’ doesn’t sound like social contact. There’s no communication, non-verbal or otherwise. So I don’t think this would be a protective factor. I think it has the potential to have a negative effect actually, making symptoms worse.

Because I think it sounds like it could be similar to being in a room with someone who refuses to socialise, constantly. And for someone in solitary confinement that’s a little like the equivalent of leaving a meal just out of reach of someone whose starving.

I can’t say that definitely for obvious reasons. So I’d suggest assuming that at best it has no effect on the situation.

The realistic reaction to the scenario I’ve suggested is lifelong mental illness and possibly physical disability as well.

The majority of tortures produce the same symptoms. Not every survivor experiences every possible symptom but the possible symptoms are pretty consistent.

Solitary confinement actually causes some unusual symptoms. So do starvation and sleep deprivation. I suspect this is because they’re all a systematic deprivation of something we need to function.

You can find the possible symptoms of solitary confinement, along with a few statistical estimates on the likelihood of different symptoms, in the solitary confinement masterpost.

If you’d like to know more about what those symptoms look like in practice there’s a source linked to in that masterpost by S Shalev which contains a lot of different accounts from survivors. I think you’d find it useful. It’s available for free online.

We can’t predict who will be prone to what symptoms. Right now we just don’t know why individual survivors develop particular symptoms.

So I suggest consciously picking the symptoms you want your character to come based on what you think will add to your story and character.

If a symptom creates interesting problems in the narrative, increases tension in the plot or lets you show the audience something about the character, then it’s probably a good pick.

I’d strongly suggest picking physical symptoms for solitary confinement as well as psychological ones. Most people don’t know it can cause physical symptoms and it’s important to include multiple aspects to capture the experience.

Once again, I suggest you read the survivor accounts in Shalev’s Sourcebook. Personally I’ve found reading what survivors say to be the best source for understanding their lived experience.

In this particular case after a year of restraint torture and limited opportunity for physical activity I think physical weakness, chronic pain in the legs and back, and possibly difficulty walking are all likely.

I’m not sure how good the chance of physical recovery would be because I’m not a doctor. The survivors who report these sorts of injuries after extremely long periods in restraints are often denied medical treatment after release. And appropriate medical treatment could make a lot of difference.

I suspect the chronic pain at least would last a long time. Possibly for the rest of the character’s life.

It wouldn’t be unreasonable to have them using a cane or finding it difficult to walk long distances.

Now I want to stress that recovery is possible.

Torture survivors are not passive objects forever ‘broken’ by what they survived.

They’re ill. They’re often disabled. But they do often go on to live full and happy lives.

It’s a long process and it’s often about finding a way to live with mental illness.

But it’s possible. Torture survivors go on to do all sorts of things. They’re artists, teachers, home makers, religious leaders, cooks, philosophers, scientists, historians. They do build fulfilling lives.

If reconnecting with family and friends seems like it would be a part of that for your character, then yes that’s probably something you should include in the process.

Would it be easy? No.

Recovery is long and difficult. And people change when they’re apart from each other for long periods, especially if they’re still growing up.

Family and friends of survivors often say they don’t recognise their loved ones any more. Especially if they’ve been held for a long period of time (ie months).

That’s understandable. Mental illness changes people. It can feel like a survivor comes back as a ‘different person’.

I think, for reasons that have nothing to do with solitary confinement, rebuilding the relationship would take a lot of time for these characters. Perfectly possible, but hard. There’d be a lot of miscommunications, arguments and problems along the way.

Because suddenly having to navigate severe mental illness is hard. And because dealing with healthy people who don’t understand when you’re severely mentally ill/disabled is hard.

Torture generally can result in social isolation in the long term. This isn’t always the survivor’s choice but yes, sometimes it can be.

For some survivors their symptoms and triggers are such that they find avoiding people the ‘easier’ option.

It’s not a good solution. In the long run it makes mental health problems worse. But it’s understandable. Society isn’t set up to accommodate people with mental illnesses and socialising can be very difficult.

So, yes. Depending on the symptoms you pick for the character a certain amount of withdrawing would be normal. However this is not the same as some kind of voluntary solitary confinement.

As for the final question-

Whatever the torture and the time frame suicide is always possible. Depression and suicidal ideation are common symptoms.

You’re proposing an impossibly extreme time frame. If the scenario was ‘just’ solitary confinement I’d say suicide was incredibly likely.

Even with the shorter time frame I’ve suggested we’re talking about an extreme period of time. It’s over fifty times the safe period. Suicide attempts are incredibly likely and sometimes the difference between failed and completed suicide is just how attentive the guards are.

I think that in a year of solitary confinement, forced labour and torture- Well it would be surprising if someone survived that and had never once felt suicidal.

Acting on it is a different thing.

I wouldn’t suggest a scenario unless I thought there was a decent chance, realistically, of a character surviving. And I do that while keeping in mind that suicide is a factor.

I think if you want to write this in a way that means the character has never ever felt suicidal then a more reasonable time frame is 1-3 months solitary and the removal of every other torturous or neglectful element from the story.

Even then, some people feel suicidal after a month in solitary confinement.

The realism of suicide depends on more then what a character survives. Their options for professional help, medical attention they receive, community support and practical things like whether they can get a job that pays enough to feed themselves all make a difference. So do cultural attitudes to suicide and policies in place to prevent it.

At the end of the day though, you’re the writer. You control these elements. And you can set every single one of them up in a way that makes suicide less likely.

I hope that helps. :)

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#writing advice #tw torture #tw suicide #tw child abuse #Effects of Solitary Confinement #clean torture #solitary confinement #restraint torture #sleep deprivation #time frames for solitary confinement #writing victims #writing recovery #fantasy ask

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longlivefeedback · 6 years

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The person is correct about those hits on your survey. If a person where to change their IP location, not only is a hit counted for non accountants but you can add another Kudo. I'm surprised many forgot that in the US it's the norm for internet providers to bounce around the location. Even of FFN this fact messes with the amount. So, your survey results aren't very trust worthy. Not like they weren't already since ya didn't have every member and non member opinion.

First and foremost, I’m going to give you some feedback on your ask. While your points are valid (and ones we have discussed before), they are presented in a manner that is rude and easily interpreted as aggressive. This will make most recipients assume that your words are not in good faith with the purpose of helping them improve, but instead meant to demean, belittle, or insult. Therefore, many people are likely to reject this out of hand or respond with an impolite dismissal - and they’re well within their right to do so. If this is your intent, I suggest following the words of the venerable Wil Wheaton: “Don’t be a dick.”

If I assume that this is not your intent, there are several ways that this could be rephrased. It would be more effective to phrase the statement as a question, and instead ask, “Have you accounted for changing IP addresses? It’s the norm for internet providers in the US to bounce around locations, and this will have an effect on the number of hits registered for each fic. It might change your results by (example or hypothesis). If this is the case, your results might not reflect actual differences in feedback rates.”

Finally, it sounds like you have a problem with the entire field of statistics, which is centered around describing large populations or groups by analyzing a subset of data, and figuring out if and how the characteristics of that sample can be applied to the group as a whole. Therefore, if you wish to provide constructive criticism, I suggest choosing topics that you are comfortable with and can be certain that you understand before contacting the creator.

However, I am also going to address each of these concerns below.

1. Hits vs unique visitors

Yes, we are aware of this, and that number of hits is a rough estimate of the number of readers due to the way AO3 counts hits, even if IP addresses did not change. Additionally, FFN’s primary view counter records every visit to a fic as a hit, insofar as we can tell, whether or not it comes from a unique IP address. This is one reason we’re only using one-shots in our analysis, and why we refer to each each hit as a hit and not a reader, and discuss it in terms of the likelihood that each hit will generate a comment, not the likelihood that each individual reader will comment. We have also been assuming that FFN’s hit counter will record the same number of IP address visits as a higher number of views than AO3. This doesn’t change our results significantly because it means that FFN has a higher feedback rate than what is shown in our numbers, which increases the difference but doesn’t change the conclusions. Furthermore, on AO3, high-traffic fics are more likely to register the same IP address for multiple hits/visits. This will inflate the count relative to low-traffic fics, which will have some effect on feedback rate. This is discussed more in point 3. Much of this is addressed in our assumptions and limitations.

2. Consistency

We don’t need to know the precise number of individual readers - we only need to have some modicum of internal consistency between fics… which we have, because the same hit counter is being used for every fic on that platform. Additionally, we’re not comparing a fic with 101 hits to a fic with 102 hits, we’re comparing a large group of fics that have, say, 1-250 hits with a large group that has 800-1200 hits. While it is impossible to say which of the former has actually had more unique readers, we can be certain that, on average, the low-traffic category has had fewer individual readers than the high-traffic category. Since we’re working with such a large number of fics, it doesn’t matter if the proportion of unique readers within the total hitcount varies, because we can assume that it will fall into a pattern and average out, at least within traffic categories. This is why we have a large sample size to minimize the effect of individual variation and have been performing tests of significance to determine how likely it is that the observed results happened merely due to chance.

3. Rereads and bounce rate, AKA, how many readers open the story and don’t read to the end.

While we have wondered about whether there’s a difference between site averages in terms of the bounce rate (for example, FFN does not give readers nearly as much information about a story as as AO3’s tag system, and therefore they may have less of an idea of what the story actually is and be more likely to bounce), this isn’t a major concern of ours because we still see a pattern in feedback rate distributions. It would be interesting and useful to know, but it’s not central to this project. In terms of whether rereads and bounce rate has a large effect on feedback rates between traffic categories… no, we don’t think it does. It probably plays some role, but it’s virtually impossible to be the only cause. First, you would have to show that high-traffic fics actually do have a higher rate of both, and while that is very possible, it’s not definitive. And finally, if this were to account for the entire difference between traffic categories… well, let’s do some math. The average feedback rate for low-traffic fics was 0.0125 comments/hit. The average feedback rate for high-traffic fics was 0.005 comments per hit. If we pick a random number, we can assume that fics with an average of 250 views will have an average of about 3 comment threads (again, on average - individual fics will have many more or many less). In the same vein, the average fic with 15,000 hits would have approximately 187 comment threads. … Yeah, the first one seems reasonable. The second? Well, I’m gonna ask if the author has been doing blood magic or something, because wow. What we actually see, when looking at averages, is that 15,000 hit stories will have an average of around 75 comment threads. Now, that sounds more like the AO3 I know. So, can this difference be attributed entirely to rereads and a higher bounce rate? Even if the low-traffic fics had a 0% bounce rate and a 0% rate of rereads, the high-traffic fic’s bounce+reread rate would have to be 60% to create the observed difference. So, uh, nah. Not only can’t we assume that this is the only factor, we can’t even assume that it’s a major contributor.

4. Precise numbers vs overarching trends

We’re not making claims about the precise feedback rate, just ballpark estimates. We’re not saying that every single fic on AO3 with fewer than 258 hits will average out to 0.0125 comment threads per hit. However, we are saying that we’re confident that, on average, fics with fewer hits have a higher observed feedback rates than fics with more hits. On the same end, we’re not saying that every fic will have a feedback rate that’s exactly 0.002 comments/hit higher on FFN than AO3, but instead estimating the range of differences based on our data set.

So, in summary, we’ve considered all of these points, controlled what we could, and made predictions about what effect the rest of them will have on our results. We’ve decided that we’re confident in our results, but if someone else wants to collect data and provide evidence to the contrary, that would be cool! We want to find answers, not be right, and if the answer isn’t the answer we thought it was… well hey, we got there anyway, and that’s what matters. However, if someone wants to convince us that we’re wrong, they’re going to have to back it up instead of merely nay-saying.

#llf asks #ffn vs ao3

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parasharr5443 · 3 years

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PACKING FOR YOUR MOVE WHEN YOU DON'T HAVE TIME

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locationscloudusa · 3 years

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How Location Data Is Used In Site Planning?

When it comes to design development, advances facilitated by location data are continuing to revolutionize company standards and procedures. It is now possible to estimate which sites are most likely to enhance sales for seasonal, permanent, and mobile enterprises using knowledge from new data streams.

Food trucks, which are a popular lunchtime option for many, operate on a location-based business strategy. Food trucks, on the whole, offer identical lunch selections for around the same cost, making it more difficult for the companies to stand apart from adjacent competitors. As a result, the placement of a food truck can decide the success of the business.

Taking an instance of Starbucks Locations, let us understand how the world’s leading coffee chain Starbucks, plans its store location to get the best business profit.

These are the only factors that Starbucks evaluates, but based on Rong Di’s report and our research, those were some of the characteristics that Starbucks considers while evaluating shop locations. The following is a list that is not in any particular order.

1. Neighborhood Income

Starbucks analyzes the range of aspects before introducing a new shop, including regional income. A new store should be located in an area with a median family income of at least $60,000.

2. Age

Starbucks’ primary goal is to motivate communities in which the majority of citizens are aged between18-44.

3. Landmarks / Industrial Parks

Choosing a store placement near the industrial area or offices will bring in more clients. Starbucks works in the same way as they seek places near offices, colleges, or city centers.

4. Traffic

You can get helpful info from network traffic, especially when deciding a new retail site. There is a good likelihood that your business will flourish if several thousand vehicles pass by the place where you intend to build the business. A daily traffic figure of at least 25,000 automobiles is preferred by Starbucks.

5. Location

The visibility of a business’s location is crucial. Starbucks prefers to set their shop at signaled intersections with multiple entry points. Because they want to be as prominent as feasible, they pick the normal route with convenient entry and departure places.

6. Commute Side

Coffee is the first thing we require in the morning. Because many of us eat breakfast on the way and from working rather than on the way home, one side of the journey is favored.

7. Location About Other Businesses

The proximity of Starbucks to other companies matters a lot since it has a significant impact on the consumer growth. Starbucks aims to have a mix of national and regional commercial landlords adjacent to them and to increase foot traffic to its outlets.

8. Parking

Starbucks likes a dedicated parking spot for a minimum of 20 automobiles, which may vary from country to country, city to city, or location to location.

9. Crime Rates

Yes, there are crime rates. Safety is a major priority for all large retailers and food businesses. Starbucks analyses the region they are about to visit for crime statistics such as overall crime, personal crime, murderer, rapes, theft, assault, gang activity, and vehicle theft to ensure that they are looking at a safe spot.

10. Ownership Of A Smartphone

Customer happiness is the most important factor in any company, right after safety. Customer satisfaction increased after Starbucks launched an app and added a “make payment” feature, as customers no longer had to wait in long lines. Furthermore, they are aware that we enjoy seeing the number of stars we have earned and when we will receive our next reward.

Starbucks studies locations with strong mobile phones to develop their company and then targets marketing and cashback in areas with lower mobile phones to encourage consumers to use their apps.

Using GIS To Expand Your Business

Starbucks uses location information not only to design their future shop but also to expand the ones that are already open. Starbucks considers a variety of elements; let’s take a look at a few of them.

Events

Starbucks is very conscious of the environment in which it operates. They find references on all the big events taking place in the area and utilize this information to organize staffing and inventories.

Weather

Starbucks, like the internal indicators, is cleverly leveraging AccuWeather’s real-feel weather data to determine the weather ahead (one week or so). That was not brilliant at all. What’s brilliant is that they anticipate locations where the temperature will be really hot, and they understand that some people prefer flavored drinks on hot summer days.

A New Age Of Site Planning

New information streams are leading to a new age of design and development, allowing previously unimaginable ideas to become a reality. Indeed, as this food truck example shows, the success of design and development means being able to access and work in a variety of data sources, from conventional sources to different phases datasets, to determine, recognize, and evaluate the effect that communications will have on someone’s sales revenue. Want to know more about this? Contact Locationscloud Now

#geospatial #gisdata #locationdata #location intelligence #geomarketing

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polixy · 3 years

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Understanding how 2020’s election polls performed and what it might mean for other kinds of survey work

Understanding how 2020’s election polls performed and what it might mean for other kinds of survey work;

(Brianna Soukup/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)

Taken in the aggregate, preelection polls in the United States pointed to the strong likelihood that Democrat Joe Biden would pick up several states that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 and, in the process, win a popular and electoral vote majority over Republican President Donald Trump. That indeed came to pass. But the election was much closer than polls suggested in several battleground states (e.g., Wisconsin) and more decisive for Trump elsewhere (e.g., Ohio). Democrats also were disappointed at failing to pick up outright control of the U.S. Senate – though it remains a possibility – and at losing seats in the U.S. House and several state legislatures.

Many who follow public opinion polls are understandably asking how these outcomes could happen, especially after the fairly aggressive steps the polling community took to understand and address problems that surfaced in 2016. We are asking ourselves the same thing. In this post, we’ll take a preliminary shot at answering that question, characterizing the nature and scope of the 2020 polling errors and suggesting some possible causes. We’ll also consider what this year’s errors might mean for issue-focused surveys, though it will be many months before the industry will be able to collect all the data necessary to come to any solid conclusions.

Preelection polls in the United States pointed to the likelihood that Joe Biden would win a popular and electoral vote majority over Donald Trump. That indeed came to pass. But the election was much closer than polls suggested in several battleground states and more decisive for Trump elsewhere.

Before talking about what went wrong, there are a couple of important caveats worth noting. First, given the Democratic-leaning tendency to vote by mail this year and the fact that mail votes are counted later in many places, the size of the polling errors – especially at the national level – will likely end up being smaller than they appeared on election night. Even this week, vote counting continues and estimates of polling errors have shrunk somewhat in many battleground states. It’s also important to recognize that not all states suffered a polling misfire. In many important states that Biden won (at least based on current vote totals), including Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia, polls gave a solid read of the contest.

All that said, it’s clear that national and many state estimates were not just off, but off in the same direction: They favored the Democratic candidate. To measure by how much, we compared the actual vote margins between Republicans and Democrats – both nationally and at the state level – with the margins in a weighted average of polls from FiveThirtyEight.com. Looking across the 12 battleground states from the upper Midwest (where many polls missed the mark) to the Sun Belt and Southwest (where many were stronger), polls overestimated the Democratic advantage by an average of about 4 percentage points. When looking at national polls, the Democratic overstatement will end up being similar, about 4 points, depending on the final vote count. That means state polling errors are about the same as in 2016, while the national polling error is slightly larger, at least as of today. Even so, the national polling error of 2020 appears to be similar to the average errors for election polls over the past 12 presidential elections.

The fact that the polling errors were not random, and that they almost uniformly involved underestimates of Republican rather than Democratic performance, points to a systematic cause or set of causes. At this early point in the post-election period, the theories about what went wrong fall roughly into four categories, each of which has different ramifications for the polling industry.

Partisan nonresponse

The suggested problem

According to this theory, Democratic voters were more easily reachable and/or just more willing than Republican voters to respond to surveys, and routine statistical adjustments fell short in correcting for the problem. A variant of this: The overall share of Republicans in survey samples was roughly correct, but the samples underrepresented the most hard-core Trump supporters in the party. One possible corollary of this theory is that Republicans’ widespread lack of trust in institutions like the news media – which sponsors a great deal of polling – led some people to not want to participate in polls.

Is this mainly an election polling problem, or would this be of wider concern to issue pollsters as well?

Sadly, the latter. If polls are systematically underrepresenting some types of conservatives or Republicans, it has ramifications for surveys that measure all kinds of behaviors and issues, from views on the coronavirus pandemic to attitudes toward climate change. Issue polling doesn’t require the kind of 51%-49% precision of modern presidential election polling, of course, but no pollster wants a systematic skew to their data, even if it’s “only” 5 percentage points.

What could we do to fix it?

A straightforward fix to the problem of underrepresenting Trump supporters would be to increase efforts to recruit conservatives and Republicans to polls; increase the statistical weight of those already in the survey to match their share of the population (a process known as “weighting”); or both. Many polls this year weighted on party registration, 2016 vote or self-identified partisanship, but still underestimated GOP support.

The challenge here is twofold. The first is in estimating the correct share of conservatives and Republicans in the population, since, unlike age, gender and other demographic characteristics, there are no timely, authoritative benchmarks on political orientation. Second, just getting the overall share of Republicans in the poll correct may be insufficient if those who are willing to be interviewed are bad proxies for those who are not willing (e.g., more strongly conservative) – in which case a weighting adjustment within partisan groups may be needed.

‘Shy Trump’ voters

The suggested problem

According to this theory, not all poll respondents who supported Trump may have been honest about their support for him, either out of some sort of concern about being criticized for backing the president or simply a desire to mislead. Considerable research, including by Pew Research Center, has failed to turn up much evidence for this idea, but it remains plausible.

The fact that polls this year underestimated support for other, less controversial Republican candidates – sometimes by more than they underestimated support for Trump – suggests that the “shy Trump” hypothesis may not explain very much of the problem.

Is this mainly an election polling problem, or would this be of wider concern to issue pollsters as well?

This would pose a challenge for measuring attitudes about the president in any venue. But if it was limited to the current president, it would not have lasting impact. Polls on issues that are less sensitive might be less affected.

What could we do to fix it?

In the electoral context, this is a difficult problem to fix. Pollsters have experimented with approaches to doing so, such as asking respondents how their friends and neighbors planned to vote (in addition to asking respondents how they themselves planned to vote) and then using answers to these questions to adjust their forecasts. But the efficacy of these methods is still uncertain.

Still, the fact that polls this year underestimated support for other, less controversial Republican candidates – sometimes by more than they underestimated support for Trump – suggests that the “shy Trump” hypothesis may not explain very much of the problem.

Turnout error A: Underestimating enthusiasm for Trump

The suggested problem

Election polls, as opposed to issue polling, have an extra hurdle to clear in their attempt to be accurate: They have to predict which respondents are actually going to cast a ballot and then measure the race only among this subset of “likely voters.” Under this theory, it’s possible that the traditional “likely voter screens” that pollsters use just didn’t work as a way to measure Trump voters’ enthusiasm to turn out for their candidate. In this case, surveys may have had enough Trump voters in their samples, but not counted enough of them as likely voters.

Is this mainly an election polling problem, or would this be of wider concern to issue pollsters as well?

If the main problem this year was a failure to anticipate the size of Republican turnout, the accuracy of issue polls would be much less affected. It would suggest that survey samples may already adequately represent Americans of all political persuasions but still struggle to properly anticipate who will actually turn out to vote, which we know is quite difficult. Fortunately, the eventual availability of state voter records matched to many election surveys will make it possible to assess the extent to which turnout differences between Trump and Biden supporters explain the errors.

What could we do to fix it?

Back to the mines on reinventing likely voter scales.

Turnout error B: The pandemic effect

The suggested problem

The once-in-a-generation coronavirus pandemic dramatically altered how people intended to vote, with Democrats disproportionately concerned about the virus and using early voting (either by mail or in person) and Republicans more likely to vote in person on Election Day itself. In such an unusual year – with so many people voting early for the first time and some states changing their procedures – it’s possible that some Democrats who thought they had, or would, cast a ballot did not successfully do so. A related point is that Trump and the Republican Party conducted a more traditional get-out-the-vote effort in the campaign’s final weeks, with large rallies and door-to-door canvassing. These may have further confounded likely voter models.

Is this mainly an election polling problem, or would this be of wider concern to issue pollsters as well?

To the extent that polls were distorted by the pandemic, the problems may be confined to this moment in time and this specific election. Issue polling would be unaffected.

To the extent that polls were distorted by the pandemic, the problems may be confined to this moment in time and this specific election. Issue polling would be unaffected. The pandemic may have created greater obstacles to voting for Democrats than Republicans, a possibility that polls would have a hard time assessing. These are not problems we typically confront with issue polling.

What could we do to fix it?

It’s possible that researchers could develop questions, such as on knowledge of the voting process, that could help predict whether the drop-off between intention to vote and having successfully cast a ballot is higher for some voters than others – for instance, whether a voter’s mailed ballot is successfully counted or may be rejected for some reason. Treating all early voters as definitely having voted and all Election Day voters as only possible voters is a potential mistake that can be avoided.

Conclusion

As we begin to study the performance of 2020 election polling in more detail, it’s also entirely possible that all of these factors contributed in some way – a “perfect storm” that blew the polls off course.

Pew Research Center and other polling organizations will devote a great deal of effort to understanding what happened. Indeed, we have already begun to do so. We’ll conduct a review of our own polling, as well as a broader analysis of the polls, and we’ll participate in a task force established at the beginning of this year by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) to review election poll performance, as happened in 2016. This effort will take time. Relevant data on voter turnout will take months to compile. But make no mistake: We are committed to understanding the sources of the problem, fixing them and being transparent along the way.

Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center.

Claudia Deane is vice president of research at Pew Research Center.

; Blog (Fact Tank) – Pew Research Center; https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/understanding-how-2020s-election-polls-performed-and-what-it-might-mean-for-other-kinds-of-survey-work/; https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FT_20.11.12_Polling_feature.jpg?w=1200&h=628&crop=1; November 13, 2020 at 12:07PM

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melissawalker01 · 4 years

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Best Divorce Attorney Utah

By placing this article here, we are not saying that we are the absolute 100% best divorce attorney in the state of Utah. Although some of our clients may feel that way, that is their opinion. We are sure there are some who would disagree with this statement. Accordingly, please do your own due diligence before hiring any lawyer for any purpose whatsoever.

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Divorce is very common in the United States with almost half of all marriages ending in divorce or permanent separation. Commitment has been shown to be a clear factor in why some couples stay together. There are times when divorce is necessary, but those in other circumstances often later indicate they wish they would have tried harder before divorcing. There are many factors that place a couple at higher risk for divorce. It may be helpful to know some of the statistics and findings outlined below.

What Percentage Of Marriages Ends In Divorce?

Researchers estimate that 40%-50% of all first marriages will end in divorce or permanent separation and about 60% – 65% of second marriages will end in divorce. Although divorce has always been a part of American society, divorce has become more common in the last 50 years. Changes in the laws have made divorce much easier. The highest divorce rates ever recorded were in the 1970s and early 1980s. Divorce rates have decreased since that time, but still remain high.

What factors are associated with a higher risk for divorce?

Over the years, researchers have determined certain factors that put people at higher risk for divorce: marrying young, limited education and income, living together before a commitment to marriage, premarital pregnancy, no religious affiliation, coming from a divorced family, and feelings of insecurity.

• Young age: Marriage at a very young age increases the likelihood of divorce, especially in the early years of marriage. • Less education: Research shows that those with at least some college education (vs. high school or not finishing high school) have a lower chance of divorce. • Less income: Having a modest income can help couples avoid stress that may lead to divorce. • Premarital cohabitation: Couples who live together before marriage appear to have a higher chance of divorce if they marry, but the risk is mostly true for those who have cohabited with multiple partners. A common belief is that living together before marriage provides an opportunity to get to know each other better, but research has found those that live together before marriage have already developed some leniency towards divorce. This leniency towards divorce is what leads the couple to become high risk. However, there are some caveats to these findings. Research suggests couples who get engaged and then move in together are no longer at a high risk for future divorce. Their commitment towards marriage reduces the risk of a future divorce.

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• Premarital childbearing and pregnancy: Childbearing and pregnancy prior to marriage significantly increase the likelihood of future divorce.

• No religious affiliation: Researchers have estimated those with a religious affiliation compared to those who belong to no religious group are less likely to divorce.

• Parents’ divorce: Unfortunately, experiencing the divorce of your parents doubles your risk for divorce. And if your spouse also experienced their parents’ divorce than your risk for divorce triples. This does not mean you are predisposed to having your marriage end in divorce, only that you may need to be more aware of your marriage trends and work harder for a successful marriage.

What Are The Most Common Reasons People Give For Their Divorce?

Research has found the most common reasons people give for their divorce are lack of commitment, too much arguing, infidelity, marrying too young, unrealistic expectations, lack of equality in the relationship, lack of preparation for marriage, and abuse. Many of the common reasons people give for their divorce can fall under the umbrella of no longer being in love. Research suggests the nature of love changes over time. If you feel as if you have fallen out of love, marriage counseling may help offer a new perspective that will help you rediscover that love. Some couples are faced with very difficult situations, such as abuse, infidelity, or addictions. Each of these situations deserves special consideration: Abuse • When there is a pattern of abuse in a marriage or in a family, not surprisingly there is evidence that ending the marriage is usually best for all involved. While some spouses are able to end and overcome abuse, abused spouses and children are usually better off when the marriage is ended. • Sometimes, ending a marriage with an abusive spouse can be dangerous, however. It is probably a good idea to work with a domestic violence shelter in your community to help you end the relationship safely. • If you suspect that you (or someone you know) is in an abusive relationship, you may want to look at this webpage on Signs of Abuse. Infidelity

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• Most Americans say they would end their marriage if their spouse cheated on them. However, many couples (50-60%) who have dealt with infidelity in their marriages find the will and strength to stay together. • An excellent resource to learn more about recovering from marital infidelity is the book, Getting Past the Affair: A Program to Help You Cope, Heal, and Move On—together or apart. • Also, consider getting help from a well-trained marriage counselor and/or a dedicated religious leader, who will help you heal, decide what to do, and repair the marriage, if you decide to stay together. Recovering from infidelity can be very difficult to do without some help. Addictions • Addiction can come in many forms, such as alcohol, drugs, gambling, or pornography. • If you are faced with addictions or a spouse is suffering from addictions, you can find help from organizations such as Alcoholics Anonymous and Narcotics Anonymous. • In some cases, the addict can recover and the marriage can be repaired. In other cases, it is best for the spouse and children to separate from the addict to see if progress can be made. Each person has unique circumstances and must decide what is right for her or him. Again, consider turning to a trained professional and/or a religious leader to help you know how best to handle your situation.

How You Can Start Again After Divorce

Whether it’s rife with conflict or not, divorce is rarely easy. When you’re ending a marriage, you may struggle to move on with your life. But you can successfully work through the emotions and start a new life. “You may feel rejected, angry, profoundly hurt or out-of-control. It’s also possible that you’ll feel relieved and hopeful.” “It’s important to pay attention to your emotions and to get help when you need it.” Either way, there are typically stages of emotional upheaval people face on the road to starting over. As with any loss, you’ll go through periods of adjustment, active recovery and life reformation. Knowing what to expect (and understanding that the feelings are normal) will help you get to the other side.

How To Recover After Divorce

 Let yourself feel: By letting yourself feel, you’ll actually recover better in the long run. “Your emotional experiences are valid and uniquely your own. There’s no right or wrong way to feel,” Tucker says. “People universally grieve the loss of their dreams they could’ve, would’ve, should’ve.” Take time to let these feelings out.  Talk it out: Working with a professional therapist can give you solid support, as well as practical tips to help you manage your money, housing, child care and health insurance. Professional guidance can also help you create time and space to grieve over your loss.  Embrace coping skills: Emotional regulation is a life-long skill. It helps you learn how to handle intense emotions, focusing on positive self-care and self-soothing. “People going through a divorce are in survival mode in the beginning and are often not focused on their own well-being.” “They benefit from learning how to manage their emotions in a crisis, as well as every day.”  Work together to focus on children: For divorcing parents, concentrate on what’s best for the children. Remember, you’ll be co-parents for life. Embrace that role and work to make decisions for your children by putting them first.  Watch out for stumbling blocks: Get help if you see signs that you are stuck on anger and resentment, feelings of extreme sadness or anxiety, choosing misery, suffering alone rather than reaching out, succumbing to fear and developing depression.  Avoid hanging on in desperation: You may fall into the trap of trying desperately to reconcile with your spouse, begging for forgiveness or promising anything to hold on to the relationship. “Divorce feels so final that people are willing to try again and again.”  Don’t rush into a new relationship: Many people going through a divorce jump too quickly into a new relationship. They fear being alone or never falling in love again.  Use self-help and other resources: Books, online resources (research carefully to find legitimate ones) church-based divorce-recovery programs are all good places to find additional support.  Stay hopeful: Ultimately, you’ll work your way through the challenges and move on. “You know you are moving forward when you begin to build a new life worth living.”

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What Can I Do If My Spouse Won’t Sign The Divorce Papers?

Divorces, even those desired by both spouses, often get contentious. And if one spouse won’t agree to end the marriage or is trying to avoid the divorce, the process may stretch out longer than expected. Some resisting spouses can make the divorce process very difficult by refusing to sign the necessary divorce papers or by completely failing to respond to a request for a divorce. Others do so by hiding or trying to avoid “service” (meaning in-person delivery) of the divorce paperwork. How a judge will treat these situations depends on where you live: some states will allow the divorce to proceed “uncontested,” while others allow the petitioning spouse (the spouse asking for the divorce) to obtain a “default divorce.”

Uncontested Divorce

The easiest type of divorce is an “uncontested” divorce, which means both spouses have filed the necessary paperwork (a divorce petition and a response) and they agree to all divorce-related issues, such as alimony (spousal support), child custody and support, and the division of property and debts. Typically, if you and your spouse have reached a divorce settlement agreement on all of your issues, you can bring your agreement and any necessary divorce paperwork to court, where a judge will review it, issue orders based on that agreement, and grant you a divorce. If the agreement involves child support and custody terms, judges will check to make sure your parenting agreement and the child support amount is in the best interests of the child and meets state guidelines. If you properly served the divorce petition and your spouse filed an uncontested response, but won’t sign off on the final divorce papers, courts in some states may allow the case to proceed as though it’s uncontested. You may wait to be assigned a court appearance date. If your spouse fails to show up in court on that date, the judge may treat the case as though it’s uncontested and enter orders based on your divorce petition and the response.

Request to Enter a Default

If you have served your spouse properly, and your spouse failed to file a written response on time, some states let you file a request to enter a default divorce. State and local rules may vary, but generally, if your spouse failed to respond to your divorce petition within 30 days, you may file a request to enter a default along with a proposed judgment. It may also be allowed when a spouse can’t be located for service. The court will set a hearing date and ask that you appear. At the hearing the judge may issue a ruling based entirely on what is stated in your divorce petition (or based on what you proved to the court) and then issue your divorce orders and judgment. By failing to respond or appear, your spouse gives up the right to have any say in the divorce proceeding or court judgment. If you have filed for divorce and are dealing with an uncooperative spouse, you should speak with an experienced divorce attorney to discuss the possibility of pursuing a default case.

Hire a Divorce Lawyer

If you’re at the beginning of your divorce process, you may be considering representing yourself instead of hiring a lawyer, thinking you’ll save time and money by doing so. If your marriage was very short, if both of you are committed to ending your marriage without a legal or financial battle, if you have no children or assets, and if neither of you wants or needs to receive spousal support (alimony) from the other, then you may be able to process your own divorce using a kit or online tools. However, most people find divorce to be a complicated and confusing process, and they’re grateful to have an experienced family lawyer to help guide them through it. You’ll need to make a lot of decisions that will affect the rest of your life – at a time when emotions may overwhelm your ability to think clearly. So although not everyone needs a divorce lawyer, obtaining a good one is often in your best interests – especially if your divorce is complicated, contested, involves children, you have significant assets, or if your soon-to-be ex-spouse has hired a divorce lawyer.

You Are Unfamiliar With Matrimonial Law and/Or Family Court In court, self-represented litigants are not given any special treatment; judges hold them to the same standards as the lawyer for the other side. Most judges are fairly patient people, but if you don’t know the law or what documents you need, or even what to do next you may be pushing the judge’s patience past the breaking point. The more annoyed a judge is, the less sympathetic he/she is likely to be. Family lawyers are experts in knowing what to say to make their case seem more reasonable than yours. Lawyers who focus on areas outside family law hire a family lawyer when they’re getting a divorce; they recognize that they’ll be out of their depth when faced with a lawyer who practices family law exclusively. So it’s extremely unlikely that you’ll be able to adequately prepare to face the court process and your spouse’s lawyer by yourself. To make matters worse, you can jeopardize your entire case by saying or doing just one thing wrong.

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You Need Objective Advice At This Emotional Time

Divorce is an extremely emotional time for both spouses. You may experience feelings of sadness, betrayal, fear, depression, rage, confusion, and resignation sometimes all on the same day! This level of heightened emotions, and the fact that you cannot possibly be objective about your case, will skew your judgment. Very few people have had the time or the willingness to work through their emotions about their soon-to-be ex-spouse during the divorce process, which will hinder their ability to work productively with the other side to resolve important matters. If you’re thinking of representing yourself, you need to be aware that your emotional state may prevent you from making wise decisions about the future. As an objective third party, a family lawyer can keep a clear, level head and separate themselves from the emotional side of the case in order to work towards the best resolution for everyone involved. Throughout the divorce process, a lawyer can remind you to keep your emotions in check – or even introduce you to other professionals who can help you channel your emotions into positive strategies. A good divorce lawyer can let you know when you’re being unreasonable or are asking for something that’s more-or-less impossible.

A Divorce Lawyer Can Suggest Options You Didn’t Even Know Existed

A family lawyer can evaluate your situation and let you know the likely outcome if you take your case to court. Based on their experience with the judge and similar cases to yours, they’ll be able to offer a variety of legally-acceptable options to settle your case. If you and your spouse represent yourselves, you may agree on items that the judge will reject; when that happens, you’re causing more work and more delay for yourself, your spouse, the judge, and the court system. A lawyer will help you create a reasonable settlement proposal; if the proposal is coming from the other side, your lawyer will let you know whether to settle, make a counter-proposal, or fight it out in court.

Going through a divorce can feel like being buried alive under a mountain of paperwork to be filled out and filed with the court. Knowing which forms you’ll need for your unique situation can be challenging, and collecting all the information to complete them can be both difficult and tedious. However, producing complete paperwork is crucial: the judge will rely heavily on your documents to decide the outcome of your case. Using the wrong numbers on one form and the wrong tone or words on another could result in the judge perceiving you as careless or combative. If you omit something by mistake, the other side might accuse you of trying to hide information – which will damage your credibility and your case. A divorce lawyer knows how to fill out the paperwork properly and persuasively, increasing the chances that a judge will view your side of the argument favorably. Today, many cases are bogged down in the court system due to incomplete work presented by do-it-yourself divorces.

Best Divorce Lawyer

Whether or not we are the best is for you to decide. If you want a free consultation with a divorce lawyer in Utah, please call Ascent Law LLC for your free consultation (801) 676-5506. We want to help you.

Ascent Law LLC 8833 S. Redwood Road, Suite C West Jordan, Utah 84088 United States Telephone: (801) 676-5506

Ascent Law LLC

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