Great analysis on brio 4x04 bar scene. I really wonder now when the time comes that Rio maybe try to give up on her and sort of really let her do her crime life, then maybe she'll realize the reality of that life and what Rio has been through to somehow protect her from the other bits of it. Because right now, I think she has a mindset of solving things just by talking to people, reasoning with them. In the crime world, it doesn't work like that often. You will get a bullet hole as fast as the thunder if you mess up. Do you think it will happen in this show? Beth realizing how the real HIGH STAKES in committing shady things really are?

Thank you so much! I enjoyed picking that scene apart because there are a ton of really great moments.

By the end of the episode, it’s pretty clear that Rio knows something is going on, and based on the promo for 4.05 he’s finding the tracker they put on his car so I can’t imagine him giving her much leeway after that.

Hypothetically speaking, if Rio wasn’t so suspicious, I could envision him holding her a little closer? It has taken her all this time to get on board with the fact that killing someone is sometimes the easiest way to handle. He smiles when she finally gives the okay, letting him take care things the way he takes care of things.

However, I think the introduction of Rio’s boss will put a lot of things into perspective for Beth - most importantly that she’s the exception, not the rule. I think it’ll make her realize just how much Rio has let slide and how she can’t talk her way out of everything because someday she’s going to come up against someone who’s not going to give her a single inch.

White House Dead Pool

Odds are that anybody reading this probably associates the phrase “dead pool” with the comic character.  Jokes aside, a dead pool, or death pool, is a betting game where people try to guess when a specific person will die.  Everyone pools their money together, and waits for death.  Fun!

The CDC’s website has some very interesting data, from which we can extrapolate a hypothetical.  Say that an overweight 74-year-old with the diet and exercise regimen of a grade schooler hopped up on Halloween candy and chicken nuggets were to contract COVID-19.

As of October 7, the CDC officially recognizes 198,809 deaths from coronavirus.  The actual count is higher than this, closer to 210,000 or 215,000 but these are bureaucrats we’re talking about, so of course they’re gonna play it down; let’s roll with it.  With a population of 328,239,523 people, that means every American has a 0.06056826984% chance of dying from the virus.  This figure is way lower than the actual fatality rate of the virus, around 2.7%, because it ignores the fact that only people who catch the virus can die from it; while as of October 7, “only” 7,500,000 million people have caught it, which leaves 320,739,523 healthy people.  If we assume everyone is equally susceptible, there is a 0.06% chance of actually dying from it, which increases dramatically to 2.7% once you actually catch it.

I’m overexplaining things...

The CDC breaks down the population based on age brackets.  The 65-74 bracket accounts for 42,950 deaths (21.60364973% of the total).  There are 31,483,433 65-to-74-year-olds in the country (9.591603324% of the total), so any random 65-too-74 year old has a 0.1364209551% chance of dying from the virus.  That’s twice as likely as the national average of 0.06%!

Let’s break it down by age and gender.  Men aged 65 to 74 account for 26,345 deaths (13.25% of the total), with a population of 14,699,579 (4.48% of the total).  This means a random 65-to-74 year old man has a 0.1792228199% chance of dying of covid-19, nearly 3 times the national average!

A man in this demographic is 3 times more likely to die than the average American.  But wait, I ear you cry,  In this hypothetical situation, the man also has the best healthcare our tax dollars can buy, so isn’t he less likely to die?  Yes, but not 3 times less likely.  Viruses don’t care how much money you throw at them, they’re next to impossible to get rid of.  They’re not like bacteria, you can’t kill them inside your body, you can only hope to treat the symptoms and ride it out until your immune system takes care of it.  Without a vaccine, even the best healthcare won’t triple your chance of survival.  Let’s say it’s doubles your odds, then the man is 1.5 times more likely to die than the average American.

Accounting only for confirmed cases of the virus, 1.5 times the 2.7% overall mortality rate, gives us a 4.05% chance of the man dying.  That’s 1 in 25.  That’s better than the odds of rolling a 12 with a pair of dice (1 in 36).  It’s better than the odds of guessing 5 coin tosses in a row (1 in 32).  It’s only slightly less likely than getting 2 pair in poker (about 1 in 21).

Let’s roll them bones!

4% odds that he kicks the bucket in the next week!  Any takers?