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beardedmrbean · 8 months

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The overwhelming majority of New York voters blame President Biden for letting the migrant crisis spiral out of control, a new poll released Tuesday reveals.

The Siena College survey found that a stunning 84% of voters consider the influx of migrants a serious problem, with 57% identifying it as a “very” serious problem. Only 12% of respondents said the problem is not serious.

“It’s a sad case and Biden doesn’t even care. This is a federal problem and has always been a federal problem,” said Maria Ortiz, 37, works in retail and says she constantly sees migrants begging on the train with their babies.

“I’m not voting for him. I voted to get him in office and it’s [been] my biggest regret since,” she said at Jamaica Station in Queens.

Nearly two-thirds of voters — 64% — flunked the Biden administration’s handling of the migrant influx, while only 29% approved.

The poll suggests the crisis at the southern border that has swamped the Big Apple with the thousands of asylum seekers is dragging down Democrat Biden’s popularity even in blue-leaning New York.

“While other issues in Washington and abroad have largely driven the news cycle over the last few weeks, the influx of migrants to New York remains top of mind for voters, with 84% saying it’s a serious – 57% very serious – problem for the state,” said Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said.

“Seldom do we see an issue where at least 79% of Democrats, Republicans, independents, men, women, upstaters, downstaters, Blacks, whites, Latinos, Catholics, Jews, and Protestants all agree – that the migrant influx is a serious problem.”

The survey indicates that even immigrant-friendly New York has reached the breaking point with the unrelenting crisis.

Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64%, say New Yorkers have done enough for new migrants and must now work to “slow the flow” of migrants from the border, compared to 29% who say the state should accept and work to assimilate them. That’s a higher figure than the 58% of voters who said so in August.

Mayor Eric Adams was roundly criticized for saying the migrant crisis would “destroy New York City” without aggressive federal intervention. But 58% of voters said they agreed with Adams’s statement, and the support of his dire claim was consistent from all regions of the state.

54% of voters said migration has been more of a burden, while just 32% said it’s a benefit, a worse figure than in the prior August poll.

Biden, 80, has trouble with his own base. A majority of New York Democratic voters — 52% — said they want a nominee other than Biden to be the party’s standard bearer for president. Only 41% of Democrats said they want him as the nominee for re-election.

Thomas Barnes, a 44-year-old transit mechanic, predicted a “huge red wave” in the 2024 contest.

“If this election goes any other way, I think it is time for the American citizens to take a good look at our election system.“

“Biden’s funding two proxy wars, Americans are not only broke, it’s getting worse — the crime rate is sky high. Law abiding citizens are afraid for their lives. I’m a transit worker, I see shit every night. Democratic policy is what got us to this point,” he said, while adding he also blamed Republican Texas Gov. Gregg Abbot for sending migrants to sanctuary cities.

“The working class is getting squeezed to nothing. We got nothing left. It’s our tax dollars, not the rich. I think Donald Trump has a really good shot [with] demographics that have historically voted Democrat — it’s all over social media. Black people are done with the Democrat party. It’s promise after promise during election season. Tons of pandering and no follow through. No delivery.”

His favorability and job approval ratings are underwater and he leads former Republican President Donald Trump — who is fighting four indictments — just 46% to 37% in a hypothetical matchup, with the rest of the voters undecided. His lead over Trump is shaved to 7 percentage points if Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West run on minor party lines.

Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, who has fought the opening of migrant shelters on her Staten Island turf, said, “New Yorkers overwhelmingly disapprove of Democrats’ open borders.

“From President Biden to Governor Hochul to Mayor Adams, they have created an unsustainable and unsafe crisis at the expense of their own citizens,” Malliotakis continued.

“Senators Schumer and Gillibrand should stop holding up our Border Security Act that passed the House in May and end this madness.”

Former Democratic Rep. Max Rose, who lost his seat to Malliotakis three years ago said the president “can’t ignore” the migrant issue.

“The Biden administration and Democrats have to show they can effectively and humanely manage the migrant issue or face serious election consequences,” said Rose.

“This could make the 2022 backlash over riots and crime look like a walk in the park,” he said.

Rose predicted Biden will carry New York in the presidential race next year because of the overwhelming Democratic vote in NYC. But Democratic candidates for Congress could lose if Biden fares poorly at the top of the ticket in the suburbs and upstate, he said.

In terms of popularity, 52% of voters said they had an unfavorable view of Biden compared to 45% who had a favorable view. Similarly, 51% of respondents disapproved of his job performance while 46% approved.

A staggering 65% of New Yorkers say the United States is going in the wrong direction under a Biden presidency, while just 25% said it’s on the right track with the remainder undecided.

Felix Ramos, a 26-year-old security worker, said if the polling trend continued, Biden would have to blame himself.

“New York might just become a red state, and that’s when you know you did a bad job as a president.”

Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-1 and the last GOPer to carry New York in a presidential race was Ronald Reagan in 1984. But last year, Republican Lee Zeldin ran a competitive race for governor against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and the GOP picked up congressional seats.

“And also true is that right now, Biden has his worst-ever New York favorability and job approval ratings,” said Siena’s Greenberg. “The good news for Biden is the election is more than a year away. The bad news is there’s more bad news,” Greenberg said.

“While 70% of Democrats view Biden favorably, and 70% of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, 52% of Democrats say they want a different presidential nominee in 2024.”

Zeldin, for his part, said “President Biden should start preparing a concession speech” if the trend continued.

“If New York is close, you can only imagine where voters are heading in swing states,” the former Long Island congressman said.

“There is an intensified desire for a correction over disastrous one-party Democratic rule in New York.”

Only 30% of voters statewide approve of Adams’ handling of migrants’ issue while 46% disapprove. Even in New York City, 50% of Adams’ constituents disapproved while 41% approved.

Only 30% of voters statewide approve of Adams handling of migrants’ issue while 46% disapprove. Even in New York City, 50% of Adams’ constituents disapproved while 41% approved.

Only 37% of respondents statewide approve of Hochul’s handling of the migrant crisis, while 52% disapprove.

Public safety remains a major concern — 59% of voters statewide say crime has gotten worse over the past year, while just 9% said it’s gotten better and 28% said the same.

In New York City, 51% of voters said crime has gotten worse, while 33% said the same and just 12% better.

That’s a potential problem for Adams, who made bolstering public safety his top campaign pledge for City Hall in 2021.

The survey of 1,225 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 15-19, after the terrorist group’s Hamas invasion and slaughter of Israelis and Israel’s counter-offensive in Gaza. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

The poll found that 57% of New Yorkers support providing more military and economic aid to Israel, compared to 32% opposed.

Meanwhile, 51% of responders back providing more military and economic aid to Ukraine while 38% were opposed.

“New York needs help and we have been asking for help but all [Biden] does is send help to other countries and lounge on the beach. Pathetic,” said Ortiz, the Queens straphanger.

On the Middle East war, 50% of voters agreed with the statement that Israel must do everything it can to get back the hostages taken by Hamas, but Israeli attacks in Gaza will largely hurt innocent Palestinian civilians more than anyone else

But 32% of voters agreed with the statement that after the surprise terrorist attacks Hamas carried out on Israeli civilians, Israel must do everything it can in the Gaza territory to make sure it never happens again, regardless of casualties.

#nunyas news

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mariacallous · 2 years

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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told CNN there are three factors that led to Democrats' win in the Senate — great quality of candidates, the party's record of accomplishments, and voters recognizing that democracy was at stake in these midterm elections.

Schumer said on "CNN This Morning" Monday that Democrats received votes from Republican voters who said, "I'm a Reagan Republican, I'm a Bush Republican, I'm not [Trump's MAGA] Republican. That made a huge difference as well."

Moving forward, as Schumer returns to the lame duck session in Congress with a long legislative to-do list before the new class of Congress begins in January, he says he will try to sit down with Republicans to "get something done."

"I will say to my party: We're not going to get everything we want, like on the guns bill we didn't get everything we want. But let's try to sit down with the Republicans and get something done. And just as importantly, I'm going to say to the Republicans in the Senate, who are not the MAGA Republicans: stop letting them lead your party. Work with us to get things done," he said.

"I intend to sit down with [Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell,] and say 'we should be working together. You're not going to get the extremists in your party to work with anybody, but the rest of us can work together and get some real things done for the American people,'" he added.

Schumer pointed to the bipartisan bills passed so far, including on gun reform, the veterans protection bill and the CHIPS and Science Act to demonstrate that Democrats and Republicans can work together:

The cooperation from Republicans would be different this time because they lost, he added.

"It's different this time because they lost. They all expected to win. The red wave proved to be a red mirage," he said, adding that the MAGA strain of messaging didn't work for the Republicans.

Schumer wouldn't weigh in on whether he believed the 2022 election results that favored Democrats in the Senate should mean President Joe Biden should run for reelection in 2024.

"Look, he'll make that decision himself," Schumer said. "If he wants to run, I will support him."

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marvelsmostwanted · 3 years

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Hey American voters! 🇺🇸

Guess what?!!

🚨 It’s time to start worrying about the 2022 and 2024 elections. 🚨

(Yeah. We really gotta do this. It's... not looking great.)

Long story short:

Republicans have been working hard since the 2020 election to enact voter suppression laws, overturn election results, and set themselves up to steal the 2024 presidential election if necessary.

You’ve probably heard about the Georgia voter suppression law. But did you know that “Stop the Steal” conspiracy theorist Republicans are running to be election officials like Secretary of State in several swing states, setting themselves up to overturn future elections? They are dismantling democracy before our eyes.

So what’s the worst case scenario?

...Well, let’s start with the realistic scenario.

Republicans are likely to take back the House in 2022. They are possibly capable of doing it through gerrymandering alone. Is it possible for Democrats to keep the House? Yes, but it will take a huge effort.

Republicans could also win back the Senate since it's currently 50-50 and Democrats only have a narrow majority because we won the presidency.

Even if Republicans only win back the House, the Biden administration would legislatively accomplish very little from 2022-2024. Republicans would have the power to impeach Biden for no reason and cause another constitutional crisis, enable gerrymandering and voter suppression laws, and block any Democratic priorities from becoming law (gun control, climate change, and healthcare are just a few things that would be off the table entirely).

Then comes 2024.

Donald Trump is the most likely Republican candidate to run and win in 2024. In a recent poll (May 2021), 66% of Republicans indicated that they would vote for Trump again.

Yes, Trump can run even if he’s indicted on criminal charges. He can run even if he’s in prison!

Remember, although Biden won by 7 million votes, it was really a difference of about 44,000 votes in three swing states that prevented Trump from winning the Electoral College and becoming president again. That is a frighteningly small margin.

Even if the candidate isn’t Trump, this is still going to be a close election. 85% of Republicans say they would vote for a Trump-aligned candidate (same poll as above).

If Republicans win back or maintain control of Congress in 2024, this could set up an even more dangerous scenario:

The House has the power to choose the president if Congress does not award 270 electoral votes to either candidate.

How could that happen? Well, those "Stop the Steal" Republican election officials in swing states could refuse to certify the election, claiming fraud, and a close election could end up with neither candidate getting enough electoral votes. House Republicans could literally choose the next president without any input from voters and effectively end American democracy as we know it.

Because you know that Republicans will never let go of that power once they have it.

This is not far-fetched.

This is a realistic, highly likely scenario that will happen if we don’t do something to prevent it. Journalists and election experts are trying to sound the alarm, and we should listen:

New York Times - How Republicans Could Steal the 2024 Election

Washington Post - American democracy is in even worse shape than you think

Pod Save America - Stop the 2024 Steal (Discussion at 29:00)

LA Times - Trump’s allies are prepping to steal 2024 election

The only way to prevent this from becoming reality is to fight like hell against it. And I know we just did that in 2018 and 2020. But this fight isn't over until we restore and protect our democracy.

This isn’t about how much you like Biden & Harris, or even if you’re a Democrat in general. It’s about saving democracy in America.

What can we do about it?

Unfortunately, it’s going to be an uphill battle. But if we all engage in this fight, then we can make a difference.

TLDR, we need to raise awareness about the threat to democracy, encourage Democrats to end the filibuster and pass H.R.1 immediately, and organize, organize, organize to get voters back out there in 2022 and 2024.

Specific ways to help & additional resources below the cut.

How to help:

National Level:

*High priority: Call your Democratic Senator(s) right now and tell them to pass H.R.1, the For the People Act, with urgency.

*High priority: Call your Democratic Senator(s) right now and tell them that you are strongly in favor of ending the filibuster (Especially if your Senator is Manchin or Sinema.)

Call your Democratic Senator(s) and tell them to vote for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

Call your Republican Senator(s) and tell them you are in favor of all of the above, especially if you live in a swing state.

State Level:

*High priority: Find out who is running for state legislature and other positions that have control over elections, such as Secretary of State. Donate or volunteer for their campaigns. Spread the word amongst your family and friends and make sure they know who to vote for and the date of the election.

If no one is running against the Republican, consider running! I’m not joking. Or if you know someone who is qualified and/or interested in running, encourage them to do so.

Local Level:

*High priority: Same as on the state level: Find out who is running and support the person who is supporting democracy. Local election officials can have a huge impact, especially in swing states and counties. Spread the word about this candidate, the election date, registering to vote, where to vote, etc.

Again, if no one is running, consider running! Incumbents often stay in power because they are unchallenged. And a local position is a great way to get involved in politics and help your community.

Additional ways to help:

Make sure you are registered to vote.

Check in with 3 friends/family members and help them register to vote if they are not already.

Send reminders to friends/family to vote on Election Day - not just in November, but for special elections, local elections, etc.

Volunteer with a group specifically working to help progressives win elections: SwingLeft, EMILY’s List, etc.

Donate to the candidates you support early and often! One of the reasons Democratic House candidates struggled in 2020 was that a lot of money came in at the last minute. Donating early and/or on a monthly basis ensures that they have the funds to run a long, successful campaign.

More Info & Resources:

Read: Washington Post - American democracy is in even worse shape than you think

Excerpt/TLDR: "The radicalization of the Republican Party has outpaced what even most critical observers imagined,” Georgetown University historian Thomas Zimmer told me. “We need to grapple with what that should mean for our expectations going forward and start thinking about real worst-case scenarios." - Perry Bacon Jr.

Read: New York Times - How Republicans Could Steal the 2024 Election

“It occurred to me,” [Erica Newland, counsel for Protect Democracy] told her colleagues then, “as I dug into the rules and watched what happened, that if the current Republican Party controls both Houses of Congress on Jan. 6, 2025, there’s no way if a Democrat is legitimately elected they will get certified as the president-elect.”

Listen: Pod Save America - Stop the 2024 Steal (29:00-36:27 covers the bulk of it, and they go on for about another 10 minutes after that)

Excerpt: "If you just watch what's happening... it is a very clear indication of a minority party that knows it has no path to majority status rigging elections at every level to set the stage for minority rule in this country. (...) People are not alarmed enough about [this]. The great asymmetry in American politics is that Republicans view power as an end in itself, and Democrats view power as a means to an end. Republicans are using the power they have to put in place laws that allow them to hold onto political power. (...) We need to raise the alarm. There are disturbing signs of complacency in our party." - Dan Pfeiffer

Support H.R.1: VoteSaveAmerica.com/ForThePeople

#voting #democracy #mine #us politics #LONG POST #sorry democracy is at stake #do i think tumblr posts change these things? sometimes!#raising awareness is important #we do not have time to be complacent #anyway i just like to have all of this info in one place and the place is here #voting resources #voter resources #2022 #2024 #voter suppression

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somethingusefulfromflorida · 3 years

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13 Keys to the White House: 2024 prediction (as of August 15, 2021)

Midterm gains: false, the Republicans are going to sweep the House

No primary challenge: probably true, no Democrat with a future would dare to challenge Biden or Harris

Incumbent seeking re-election: probably true, Biden has indicated he's going to run again even though he'll be 82 at the time

No third party: too soon to tell, we won't know how the Libertarians/Greens fare until 2023 at the earliest

Strong short-term economy: too soon to tell, who knows if we'll be in recession in 2024?

Strong long/term economy: probably false, inflation is rising and Republicans are threatening to let us default on our national debt, so things are looking bad going forward

Major policy change: false, Biden hasn't done shit, and if he doesn't do shit NOW he won't be able to do shit after the Republican dominated midterms

No social unrest: too soon to tell, it will depend on how bad things get between now and 2024

No scandal: too soon to tell, all eyes are on Biden, but there's no telling what he'll do

No foreign/military failure: FALSE, Afghanistan is going down in flames, tens or hundreds of thousands of civilians are going to die when the Taliban takes over, it'll be the worst humanitarian crisis in the planet

Foreign/military success: probably false, withdrawing from Afghanistan was supposed to be a huge success, but the last 20 years have been pointless.

Charismatic incumbent: false, Biden wasn't charismatic in 2020, he's not gonna magically gain 20 or 30 percent more approval going into 2024

Uncharismatic challenger: true, none of the Republican challengers resonate with anyone outside their base, Trump or DeSantis or Cruz or Cotton or anyone else

Democrats need 8 true to hold power

Republicans need 6 false to retake power

1 is definitely true

2 are probably true

4 are too soon to tell

2 are probably false

4 are definitely false

Republicans are almost certainly going to win in 2024 unless Biden pulls a rabbit out of his ass and magically reverses course in the next 15 months; things are in flux now, but come November 2022 they will be set in stone.

Key 1 is a lost cause because of partisan gerrymandering; the Republicans will take the House by force, though they'll likely lose the nationwide popular vote

Key 2 is probably safe because it would require a challenger to get 33% of the vote, and I just don't see that happening against a sitting president

Key 3 is true as of right now, but could easily flip false for any number of reasons. Biden ran on the unspoken promise that he was a transitional president and would step down in 2024, but Kamala Harris isn't more popular than he is (in fact, she's less popular), so the Democrats have painted themselves into a corner; either it's an old old old man or Hillary Clinton 2.0

Key 4 is beyond Biden's control; over the last century, third party candidates have gained traction about every 10 years, once every 2 or 3 election cycles. They did well in 1968, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2016, so 2024 is up in the air.

Key 5 could go either way, I don't know enough about economics to make any informed predictions

Key 6 is more nuanced; the creator of the 13 Keys defines it as "real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms." The economy grew under Obama's second term, and tanked under Trump's first, so the average of the last two terms is either zero net growth or very slight shrinkage. If Biden can grow the economy at all, even a little, this key could flip in his favor. If he continues to do nothing, he's as good as gone.

Key 7 is a nonstarter; W turned the US into a police state, Obama slightly improved healthcare, Trump changed taxes from the ground up (and dismantled liberal democracy through a rigged judiciary and disintegration of federal authority over the states), but Biden and the Democrats have pretty much wasted the last 8 months, accomplishing zero of their campaign promises. They passed a neutered stimulus package, and might pass a neutered infrastructure deal, both of which gave major concessions to the Republicans even though they supported neither. Biden is Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush rolled into one.

Key 8 could very well lead us into another 2020 situation; not only have zero communities defunded the police, many of them have actually INCREASED funding. Republicans continue to dismantle our democracy by passing voter suppression laws, and are going to gerrymander their House into an unbreakable conservative majority despite only making up about 40-45% of the population. I expect to see major protests against Republican legislatures across the country, which will be quelled by both state and federal forces because Democrats never support active protests, only passive peaceful ones (ones that fail, but look polite on TV)

Key 9 could be real or invented; no matter what Biden does, whether he's squeaky clean or rotten to the core, the Republicans are going to impeach him in 2023. Hell, they'll almost certainly run in 2022 on the platform of "we will impeach Biden if we win." He'll be acquitted of course, but Republicans will control the narrative and gain popular support going into 2024. They might wait to impeach him until the election starts, or impeach him and hold a long protracted trial throughout the primaries and well past the national conventions. If they win the House, they'll almost certainly win the Senate too, which means they have all the power, even if they can't remove him.

Key 10 is a lost cause; there's no coming back from this, Afghanistan is an absolute failure, full stop.

Key 11 is very closely tied to key 10, so I don't see it flipping true because Biden doesn't really have any other major foreign policy objectives within his grasp.

Key 12 is a doubly lost cause because both Biden and his chosen successor are terrible candidates. Biden was picked by the establishment as a milquetoast "civility" candidate in opposition to Trump's extremism, and Harris is so unpopular she dropped out of the presidential race due to lack of enthusiasm before a single vote was cast. Biden was the lesser of two evils, and Harris is a lying centrist cop pretending to be a progressive. As I said in Key 3, the Democrats painted themselves into a corner; Biden/Harris is Carter/Mondale all over again.

Key 13 is safe now and forever because no candidate will ever have national appeal again. The creator of the 13 Keys gave examples like Lincoln, the Roosevelts, and Kennedy, as well as controversial picks like Reagan and Obama in 2008 (though not in 2012). Love them or hate them, these candidates resonated with the entire country in their day, but America has become too polarized for a member of one party to gain support from the other.

This is a disaster waiting to happen. It's unfolding before our eyes in slow motion, and we're unable to stop it. I feel trapped all the time, trapped in the world, trapped in the system, no agency,m, no control, no hope. I don't know what to do, because the powers that be are FUCKING EVERYTHING UP ROYALLY! This party is a laughingstock, and the alternatives are either pure evil or insignificant; I'd be a Green if they stood a snowball's chance in hell, but they don't, not even in a single district, neither federal nor state.

The system has to collapse in my lifetime, it's not tenable as is.

#2024 #2024 prediction #prediction #2024 election #13 keys #13 keys to the white house #politics #political #democrats #republicans #democratic party #republican party #i hate politics #i hate the government #the system will eventually collapse under its own weight #collapse of the usa

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden announced Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate today. Here’s a look at what this choice means and … what it doesn’t.

It’s a historic choice, with the potential for even more history to be made.

Harris is the first Asian American and the first Black woman in American history to be a general election candidate for president or vice president for either of the two major political parties. (Harris’s mother was born in India, her father in Jamaica. They met as graduate students at the University of California at Berkeley, in the 1960s.) Harris is just the second Black person (after Barack Obama) and the fourth woman (after Democrats Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Republican Sarah Palin in 2008) to be on a presidential ticket for one of the two major parties. If she and Biden win the November election, she would be the first Asian American, the first woman of any race or ethnicity and the second Black person in U.S. history to be vice president or president.

Harris’s selection is the latest sign of the increasing diversity of the Democratic Party. Democrats last had an all-white, all-male ticket in 2004, with then Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards. This vice presidential process, with Biden committing to choosing a woman fairly early on and then choosing a Black woman, suggests the Democrats may rarely in the future have a ticket of two white men. They may also rarely in the future have a ticket of two white people (as in 2016 with Clinton and Tim Kaine) or two men (as in 2012, with Obama and Biden).

It’s another illustration of the power of Black Americans in the Democratic Party.

A clear plurality of Black voters favored Biden throughout 2019, helping keep the former vice president near the top of polls through most of the Democratic primary race. Black voters in South Carolina and then other states, particularly in the South, strongly supported Biden and played a key role in his winning the nomination despite lackluster showings in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

After it was clear Biden would be the party’s nominee, a lot of prominent Black Democrats — mostly notably Rep. James Clyburn, the highest-ranking Black Democrat in the House — pushed for Biden to pick a Black woman as his running mate. With Harris’s selection, their wish was granted.

It’s another defeat for the party’s left wing.

With Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren losing the nomination contest, many liberal activists pushed Biden to pick Warren as his running mate. They were unsuccessful. Harris has a fairly liberal voting record in the Senate, but she’s not nearly as far to the left as Warren. Harris hasn’t called for the breakup of Facebook, for example, or supported a wealth tax.

The Democratic Party is moving left ideologically. But liberal activists may have a hard time getting their main policy goals adopted, even if Democrats control the House, Senate and the presidency next year. The most important figures in Washington in 2021 might be Biden, Harris, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer, all of whom have kept some distance from the party’s left wing.

Let’s pause there for a moment. I could have made the preceding three points — the history of the selection, the power of Black voters and the loss for the Left — and even used nearly the exact same words in some of those sections if Biden had selected one of the other Black women who was reportedly being considered for vice president. That list includes former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, Rep. Karen Bass, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Rep. Val Demings and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice.

The implications of Harris’s selection, however, become more complicated when you look at Harris specifically, as opposed to the selection of a Black woman more generally. So here’s what’s not clear:

We don’t know if Harris will help or hurt Biden win the general election.

Research suggests that the electoral impact of vice presidential candidates is fairly limited. I would expect Harris to follow the same pattern. Harris is a sitting senator who was competent during the debates she participated in during the 2020 Democratic primary process, so she is unlikely to make huge gaffes that raise questions about why Biden selected her (in the way that Palin became a problem for John McCain in 2008). At the same time, a senator from California doesn’t provide an obvious electoral boost in a key swing state. Also, overall, Harris wasn’t a particularly effective candidate when she ran for president last year.

So the most likely outcome is that Harris’s selection doesn’t change much — either Biden keeps his current lead and wins the presidency or Trump comes back based on factors that don’t have a lot to do with Harris. But politics is dynamic, so I’m not sure that prediction will come true.

We don’t know if Harris will boost the ticket with Black voters.

I don’t want to downplay Harris’s Indian American roots. But Black voters are expected to account for about 13 percent of the expected 2020 electorate, a much bigger share than Asian Americans (5 percent). Black voters are also a particularly sizable and important bloc in key swing states such as Florida (13 percent), Michigan (13 percent), North Carolina (23 percent), Pennsylvania (11 percent) and Wisconsin (5 percent.) I am addressing Harris’s potential appeal to Black voters specifically not because I think Black voters are likely to be particularly energized by a Black woman like Harris, but rather because much of the conversation around the vice presidential selection has implied that picking a Black person will create extra enthusiasm for the ticket with Black voters.

The percentage of Black voting-eligible people who cast ballots was significantly higher in 2008 (65 percent) and 2012 (66 percent), when there was a Black candidate on the ticket, compared to 2004 and 2016 (both around 60 percent) when there was not. Some political science research shows that Black people vote at higher rates when a Black candidate is on the ballot, although that finding is somewhat contested, and that research is about voting for a Black candidate at the top of the ticket, not a white candidate with a Black running mate.

So it’s not a crazy idea that Harris might boost the ticket with Black voters. It has some empirical basis. But I think the stronger case, at least based on what we know right now, is that she won’t have much of an effect in terms of Black voters.

Why not? First of all, while it happened in 2008 and 2012, it’s just really hard for Democrats to get that much more support from Black voters, who even in elections like 2004 or 2016 vote at fairly high rates (significantly higher than Asian American or Hispanic voters) and overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates.

Second, it’s not 2008 or 2012, when Black voters had the chance to elect and then reelect the first Black president. Third, Harris herself seems unlikely to particularly excite Black voters. This is not a random guess — Harris ran for president for much of last year and was not the preferred candidate of older Black voters in the Democratic primary (that was Biden) or younger Black voters (that was Sanders or Warren in earlier stages of the race). Obama, in contrast, had very strong Black support during his 2008 primary run, previewing what would happen in his two general election campaigns.

We don’t know how Harris’s selection affects the protest movement that has emerged since the police killing of George Floyd.

Another part of the discourse has been that the selection of a Black woman became more necessary in the wake of the national protests around racial inequality over the last several months. But it’s not clear the Black Lives Matter activists organizing these protests view a Black woman being picked as vice president as a major priority in terms of addressing racial inequality in America (as opposed to, for example, reducing spending on policing.) And some more liberal Black people are wary of Harris because they felt she was too punitive toward people who committed minor crimes like truancy when she was the district attorney in San Francisco and then the attorney general of California.

I would emphasize all of this is a bit unknown. Maybe Harris’s choice will be applauded by BLM activists; it’s just not a given.

We don’t know if Harris is now the most-likely Democratic nominee in 2024.

If Biden and Harris lose, Harris’s presidential ambitions are likely over. (Just ask Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan and Tim Kaine.) But if they win, remember that Biden will enter office at age 78 and that in March he described himself as a “bridge” figure who will help usher in the Democratic Party’s next generation of leaders.

So is Harris being set up to be the Democratic front-runner and likely nominee in 2024? I don’t know. And honestly, Biden and Harris may not know either. But this matters, for two big reasons. First, in the 2020 election, expect Trump and his campaign, who have had a hard time casting Biden as an extremist or a radical, to make attacks on Harris with sexist and racist undertones, cast her as an ultra-liberal Californian out of touch with Middle American values and suggest that voting for Biden in November means that Harris will be running the country for 12 years.

Second, if Harris is vice president, she would need to make sure she is ready to run for president in 2024 — in case Biden either doesn’t want to run for a second term or isn’t up to it — while also ensuring she isn’t portrayed by the media as constantly planning her 2024 campaign, which would likely to irritate Biden and other Democrats.

Biden made the predictable pick (in fact, we kind of predicted it in March). Harris is more liberal than Biden but not Sanders/Warren-left, and she is an Asian and Black woman in a party that always wants to show it cares about traditionally marginalized groups and probably feels the need to showcase its racial diversity even more in the wake of the Floyd protests. So Biden choosing someone with Harris’s political, biographical and demographic attributes makes a lot of sense.

The biggest unknowns are around Harris herself and her electoral skills. Harris is a good politician based on these facts alone: She was elected senator in the nation’s most populous state and in a country with a lot of race and gender discrimation, Harris is the second Black woman ever elected to the Senate, and arguably the first to be a serious presidential candidate. That said, it’s still not clear if she is a particularly strong politician on the national stage, and therefore if she will be that helpful for Democrats in the No. 2 slot in 2020 or as the main candidate in a future presidential election.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Perry Bacon Jr.

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patriotsnet · 3 years

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Why Republicans Are Wrong About Everything

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/why-republicans-are-wrong-about-everything/

Why Republicans Are Wrong About Everything

Why So Many Republicans Cling To Trump

Saagar Enjeti: Trump, GOP, On Wrong Side Of EVERYTHING Since Coronavirus Began

Ben Shapiro got part of it right. A toxic mix of status anxiety, persecution fears, and echoes of the Civil War helps explain why they follow Trump into the abyss.

On September 17, 1862, over 10,000 Confederate soldiers were killed, wounded, or went missing in a single day at the Battle of Antietam. Very few of them came from slave-owning families, so why did they agree to give their lives in defense of human bondage?

I was reminded of this question when I noticed that Politico Playbook had recruited conservative celebrity and author Ben Shapiro;to explain why the vast majority of House Republicans voted not to impeach President Trump on Wednesday for sending a murderous mob after them on January 6. Politico was slammed by liberals for opening its best-known section to a conservative whos been charged with being bigoted and intolerant. But Shapiros explanation of the rallying around Trump during his final days wasnt totally off base. He was on to something about how Republicans see the world.

With Trump leaving office within a week, defending his incitement of an insurrection doesnt seem to be in the long-term self-interest of Republican officeholders.;But the Civil War example helps explain why people sometimes do very self-destructive things out of spite or insecurity.

White supremacy was such a consensus view at the time that Lincoln felt compelled to defend it.

Like the rebels at Antietam, no one wants to die for nothing.

Support Nonprofit Journalism

Why Are Republicans So Mean

Let’s state right off-the-bat that conservatives indeed have much to offer. In fact, the very notion of conservatism itself keeps us grounded in tradition and prevents our society from spinning into the chaos of constant flux that would surely result if we were to impetuously pursue every new liberal idea to spring forth from our fertile minds. And conservatives admirably believe in America, established order, family, freedom, and success. This all sounds wonderful.

But when it comes to other people who happen to be different from the establishment, Republicans seem to be downright mean and nasty.

We are constantly reminded of the meanness of Republicans over and over again. One recent example is evident in the xenophobic remarks of the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, who recently referred to Mexican and other immigrants as rapists and murderers.

Basic common sense, however, tells us that human beings are not any more or less violent based upon where on a map they happened to have been born. And the evidence in studies bears this out as well by indicating that immigrants are no more likely to be violent than members of the overall population. Makes sense.

But Republicans seem to harbor some sort of a fear of foreigners and an aversion against other kinds of people who are not part of the established in-group. Their view seems to be that these other people are not like us, they pose a threat to us , and thus automatically they should be regarded as enemies.

There Arent Real Forces Within The Gop Leading Change

There is some appetite for change within the GOP. In those 2024 polls, at least a third of Republicans either were supporting a GOP presidential candidate other than Trump or were undecided.;

In YouGov Blues polling, only about 40 percent of Republicans identified themselves as Trump Republicans. A recent survey from Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, a GOP-leaning firm that worked on Trumps presidential campaigns, found that about 40 percent of Republican voters didnt want Trump to continue to be a leader in the party. Those numbers dont necessarily mean that those voters want the GOP to change drastically. But there is a substantial number of Trump-skeptical/ready-to-move-on-from-Trump Republican voters. But that sentiment isnt really showing up in the Republican Partys actions during the last three months basically everything GOP officials in states and in Washington are doing lines up with the Trumpian approach. So what gives?;

related:Why The Recent Violence Against Asian Americans May Solidify Their Support Of Democrats Read more. »

It is hard to see Republicans changing course, even if a meaningful minority of voters in the party wants changes, without some elite institutions and powerful people in the party pushing a new vision. And its hard to see real anti-Trumpism forces emerging in the GOP right now.;

Don’t Miss: Republican Flag Pins

Reality Check : Biden Cant Be Fdr

Theres no question that Biden is swinging for the fences. Beyond the emerging bipartisan infrastructure bill, he has proposed a far-reaching series of programs that would collectively move the United States several steps closer to the kind of social democracy prevalent in most industrialized nations: free community college, big support for childcare and homebound seniors, a sharp increase in Medicaid, more people eligible for Medicare, a reinvigorated labor movement. It is why 100 days into the administration, NPR was asking a commonly heard question: Can Biden Join FDR and LBJ In The Democratic Party’s Pantheon?

But the FDR and LBJ examples show conclusively why visions of a transformational Biden agenda are so hard to turn into reality. In 1933, FDR had won a huge popular and electoral landslide, after which he had a three-to-one Democratic majority in the House and a 59-vote majority in the Senate. Similarly, LBJ in 1964 had won a massive popular and electoral vote landslide, along with a Senate with 69 Democrats and a House with 295. Last November, on the other hand, only 42,000 votes in three key states kept Trump from winning re-election. Democrats losses in the House whittled their margin down to mid-single digits. The Senate is 50-50.

Most Republicans Said That President Obama Should Be Impeached Because Of The 2012 Attack On The Us Consulate In Benghazi

Their own investigations, however, proved them wrong. Every Congressional inquiry, including those by the Republican-led House Intelligence Committee, concluded that the Obama administration did nothing wrong regarding Benghazi, that there was no stand down order given, and that neither the President nor anyone in his administration lied about it. Each and every Republican investigation has reached this same conclusion, but Republicans continue to exploit this tragedy for political gain.

You May Like: How Long Has Trump Been In Politics

Nominating Mitt Romney For President

Despite the failure to grab the Senate, the GOP was still riding strong anti-Obamacare sentiment and voter frustration over the slow recovery from the Great Recession. Much of this was fueled by the Tea Party movement, which added a rare Republican grassroots element to the GOP.

When you think about it now, all of that made former Mitt Romney an extremely odd choice for the Republican nomination for president in 2012. He embodied the establishment GOP in almost every way. Romney had years as a hedge fund manager at Bain Capital on his resume at a time when most Americans were still blaming Wall Street for the nation’s economic woes. Worst of all, his universal health coverage plan enacted while he was governor of Massachusetts looked eerily like Obamacare. In fact, “Romneycare” was seen as one of the models the crafters of the Affordable Care Act used when they wrote the law. If the GOP wanted to put up a candidate who invigorated its anti-Obamacare and increasingly anti-establishment base, they couldn’t have missed the mark much more than they did with Mitt Romney.

Bidens Bill Is More Popular

We live in the middle of an era of tremendous polarization, yet Joe Bidens American Rescue Plan is shockingly popular. Its one of the most popular, least polarizing pieces of legislation in recent memory. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consultpoll, 76 percent of voters support Bidens plan, including a majority of Republicans.

Its worth noting that most polls show that 70 percent or so of Republicans believe Joe Biden is an illegitimate president. Therefore, a large segment of people who think Biden stole the election also supports his COVID and economic recovery plans.

Obamas Recovery Act was never this popular. A January 2009 Gallup poll found that the public favored Obamas plan 52 percent to 38 percent.

These are good numbers but nowhere near the sky-high popularity of the Biden plan. At the time of this poll, Obamas approval rating was hovering around 70 percent. Bidens plan is more popular than he is Bidens job approval is 52.8 per FiveThirtyEight. That disparity is evidence of Bidens COVID plan’s political durability and the dangerous game Republicans are playing by opposing it. People who dont like Biden but like his plan are the exact people who the Republicans need to win over to take back Congress.

Read Also: How Many States Are Controlled By Republicans

Times Republicans Were Wrong

It’s no secret that politicians tend to use exaggerated political rhetoric to get people to vote for them. In recent decades, Republicans have repeatedly made very ominous predictions about the horrors that will result from Democratic policies while painting a rosy picture of what will result from Republican policies. Now we have the luxury of looking back over the years to examine those predictions and policies. Below, you will find twenty-one examples of times Republicans were blatantly wrong.

Taking The Perspective Of Others Proved To Be Really Hard

Why both Democrats and Republicans are wrong on inflation

The divide in the United States is wide, and one indication of that is how difficult our question proved for many thoughtful citizens. A 77-year-old Republican woman from Pennsylvania was typical of the voters who struggled with this question, telling us, This is really hard for me to even try to think like a devilcrat!, I am sorry but I in all honesty cannot answer this question. I cannot even wrap my mind around any reason they would be good for this country.

Similarly, a 53-year-old Republican from Virginia said, I honestly cannot even pretend to be a Democrat and try to come up with anything positive at all, but, I guess they would vote Democrat because they are illegal immigrants and they are promised many benefits to voting for that party. Also, just to follow what others are doing. And third would be just because they hate Trump so much. The picture she paints of the typical Democratic voter being an immigrant, who goes along with their party or simply hates Trump will seem like a strange caricature to most Democratic voters. But her answer seems to lack the animus of many.;;

Democrats struggled just as much as Republicans. A 33-year-old woman from California told said, i really am going to have a hard time doing this but then offered that Republicans are morally right as in values, going to protect us from terrorest and immigrants, going to create jobs.

Don’t Miss: What Color Ties Do Republicans Wear

Reality Check #: The Electoral College And The Senate Are Profoundly Undemocraticand Were Stuck With Them

Because the Constitution set up a state-by-state system for picking presidents, the massive Democratic majorities we now see in California and New York often mislead us about the partys national electoral prospects. In 2016, Hillary Clintons 3-million-vote plurality came entirely from California. In 2020, Bidens 7-million-vote edge came entirely from California and New York. These are largely what election experts call wasted votesDemocratic votes that dont, ultimately, help the Democrat to win. That imbalance explains why Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 and came within a handful of votes in three states from doing the same last November, despite his decisive popular-vote losses.

The response from aggrieved Democrats? Abolish the Electoral College! In practice, theyd need to get two-thirds of the House and Senate, and three-fourths of the state legislatures, to ditch the process that gives Republicans their only plausible chance these days to win the White House. Shortly after the 2016 election, Gallup found that Republican support for abolishing the electoral college had dropped to 19 percent. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a state-by-state scheme to effectively abolish the Electoral College without changing the Constitution, hasnt seen support from a single red or purple state.

Surrendering Before The Battle

The midterm elections of 2014 gave the Republicans control of the Senate that they should have won in 2010. But even before the new members took their oaths of office, then-Senate Majority Leader-elect Mitch McConnell promised never to trigger a government shutdown. That effectively took the sharpest arrow out of the GOP’s congressional quiver, and again relieved the greatest pressure the Republicans could have exercised against Obama.

Don’t Miss: Did Donald Trump Say Republicans Are The Dumbest Group Of Voters

Unified Republican Opposition To Obama’s Policies Helped Them Retake Congress In 2010 Here’s Why It May Not Work Again

When the House of Representatives passed President Bidens COVID-relief plan last weekend, every single Republican voted against it. Earlier this week, Senator John Thune, Mitch McConnells deputy, predicted that every Republican Senator would vote against the Biden plan. Thunes reasoning was typically cynical. He said the Republicans wanted to:

make the Democrats own a piece of legislation that I think is going to have long-term adverse consequences.

This was the latest example of Republicans saying the quiet part out loud. Thune is admitting they are making a bet that the Biden plan wont work, and Republicans can reap the political rewards of a sub-standard economy in 2022. This is the same bet the Republicans made in 2009 when they decided to oppose Barack Obamas efforts to address the financial crisis.

Politically, the 2009 bet paid off. The Republicans rode a wave of economic discontent to control of the House and a massive set of wins down-ballot that would impact politics for more than a decade. But just because it worked then doesnt mean it will work now. The Republicans may be making a massive miscalculation by re-fighting the last war.

Republicans Said President Obama Would Raise Taxes Sky High

It never happened. Income taxes for over 95% of Americans remained the same or lower than they were before Obama was elected. The only people whose income taxes increased were those who make more than $400,000 per year, and their taxes rose only 3%. For most Americans, taxes are still lower now than they were under Reagan.

Read Also: Trump Quote In People Magazine 1998

Blowing The Midterm Elections

The 2008 elections gave Barack Obama a clear win in the presidential election and the Democrats a filibuster-proof supermajority in Congress. They proceeded to spend that political capital almost entirely on passing Obamacare in a lengthy process that included a number of unusual compromises with their own party members, like the “Cornhusker Kickback” and controversial legislative tricks like the “deemed as passed” maneuver. All of this took place even as the Affordable Care Act failed to gain majority support in the polls.

That set the stage for a strong Republican advantage going into the 2010 midterm elections. On paper, the GOP did score a resounding victory, picking up 63 seats in the House of Representatives and a net gain of six seats in the Senate.

But Republicans blew a solid chance to retake the Senate. They put up weak candidates in several winnable races. They included Sharon Angle in Nevada, who was seen as too radical and managed to lose to then-incumbent Harry Reid despite his very weak approval ratings in his home state. Arch-abortion opponent Ken Buck won the GOP nomination in Colorado, . The biggest mistake of all was Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. O’Donnell lost after she became infamous for her revelation that she had once experimented with witchcraft.

As a result, the Democrats kept control of the Senate and the Republicans lost a chance to force Obama into what could have been a series of advantageous compromises over the next six years.

The Gop Is A Grave Threat To American Democracy

Unless and until Republicans summon the wit and the will to salvage the party, ruin will follow.

About the author: Peter Wehner is a contributing writer at The Atlantic and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He writes widely on political, cultural, religious, and national-security issues, and he is the author of The Death of Politics: How to Heal Our Frayed Republic After Trump.

The hope of many conservative critics of Donald Trump was that soon after his defeat, and especially in the aftermath of the January 6 insurrection, the Republican Party would snap back into its former shape. The Trump presidency would end up being no more than an ugly parenthesis. The GOP would distance itself from Trump and Trumpism, and become a normal party once again.

But that dream soon died. The Trump presidency might have been the first act in a longer and even darker political drama, in which the Republican Party is becoming more radicalized. How long this will last is an open question; whether it is happening is not.

To better grasp whats happening among 2020 Trump voters, I spoke with Sarah Longwell, a lifelong conservative and political strategist who is now the publisher of The Bulwark, a news and opinion website that is home to anti-Trump conservatives. She is also the founder of Republican Voters Against Trump, now the Republican Accountability Project.

Recommended Reading: Donald Trump People Magazine Article 1998

Prior To Going To War In Iraq Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld Optimistically Predicted The Iraq War Might Last Six Days Six Weeks I Doubt Six Months

What’s more, Vice-President Dick Cheney said we would be greeted as liberators by the Iraqi people after we overthrow Saddam.

They were both horribly wrong. Instead of six weeks or six months, the Iraq war lasted eight long and bloody years costing thousands of American lives. It led to an Iraqi civil war between the Sunnis and the Shiites that took hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives. Many Iraqi militia groups were formed to fight against the U.S. forces that occupied Iraq. Whats more, Al Qaeda, which did not exist in Iraq before the war, used the turmoil in Iraq to establish a new foothold in that country.

The Iraq war was arguably the most tragic foreign policy blunder in US history.

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rfschatten · 3 years

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“When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser” ~~~ Socrates

When a spoiled little kid loses in a board game, he grabs the board from beneath and throws it up into the air, pulls a temper tantrum, and walks away shouting; “I won, you cheated”!

Donald Trump is a 7yr old spoiled uneducated little brat, born with a silver spoon stuck up his derriere, and dressed up as a 74yr old stable genius …well, this stable genius is going to have to deal with the reality that the 4 year run of his “Reality Show” has been canceled due to low bad ratings!

This little sore losing cry-baby will never concede! He isn’t man enough to ever say; “I lost, congratulations, You won”! That would be way too much for his ultra-narcissistic fragile ego to absorb.

His eventual eviction and exit, stage right, from the White House is January 20th. Meanwhile, he’s been trying to overturn the Election using his eternal book of conspiracy theories of fraud throughout the country, and every legal trick available.

Projecting all this massive fraud, just reveals how much fraud he must have committed …and how pissed he must be that even if he cheated his ass, off…he still lost!

He’s tried every trick in the book to win the election …including making a Trump club member and big-time political donor, Postmaster General, to steal the Election by screwing all Mail-In Votes…but, that failed. He then tried to intimidate minorities from voting using death threats and suggested his right-wing goon squads browbeat and frighten away Black voters at the polls. That failed too.

When all was lost, he started requesting hand recounts and audits. When that didn’t work, he asked for machine recounts…then, since nothing else worked, he started his inevitable string of lawsuits…62 & counting, and every single one has been dismissed as a farce by every Federal Judge at every level.

They lose, move to the Appeals Court…and lose again. They did it in every State…and kept losing! Pennsylvania’s last straw? The 3 Judges in the Court of Appeals…2 Republicans selected by George Bush and 1 Republican picked by Trump…all 3, pretty much in their own way, told Rudy Giuliani to pack his bags and get the hell out of their Court!

Finally, what has been all along …his ultimate intension…SCOTUS with “His” 3 Judges! Their verdict on PA? 9–0 in favor of Biden.

And it continued. The Attorney General of Texas sued Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia …asking the US Supreme Court to nullify the Biden votes in those states, by legally trying to interfere with another state and telling them how to run their own elections. In this case, 18 states & 126 GOP Congressmen joined the lawsuit …even advocating sedition, and threatening secession if the election isn’t overturned in their favor!

The end arrived when SCOTUS once again voted 9–0! Biden is the winner, again! Then, to put the nail on the Trump Presidency coffin, three days later, the Electoral College gave Biden his 306 votes …It’s Over! The End! El Fin! Finis!

Oh! He’ll continue to publicly say it was stolen from him till the day he dies! …it’s his new MAGA Cult rallying cry; “They stole my election …destroy the GOP”! And it’s beginning to work …lookout, Republicans!

For a while, It looked like he was willing to dig in, call squatters’ right, hunker in his bunker, and never come out! He’s mellowed recently, probably cause one of his baby handlers rubbed a little Rum on his cry-baby gums, calming his temper tantrums down a little …and making the baby do some things he really doesn’t want to do.

It would’ve been something, though …to see to what extent Donald Trump would go, to stay in the White House!

Imagine! It’s High Noon, January 20th, 2021

Donald Trump is in the back of the White House on top of a giant dumpster completely engulfed in flames, while hysterically laughing and shouting; “Ha! Ha! Top of the World, Ma! …I’m on Top of the World”!

Wonder how Jimmy Cagney (a staunch Republican donor, supporter, & close Reagan friend) must feel looking down from heaven in shame at this total fake of a tough-guy wannabe …and all his ‘tough’ Republican cult of political cowards?

He’s too much a coward to stay inside and yell; “You’re not taking me out alive, coppers”!. He’ll walk away, right onto an 18th Green in one of his Country Clubs …and continue his hateful, racist, rabble-rousing ways! Maybe, start a media empire to compete with the now, “too liberal” Fox News.

Maybe …run for President in 2024 …even, if it’s just to bug the living hell out of humanity all over again!

But primarily, to advance his Trumpism, cause trouble & entice civil unrest using his despicable “good fine people”, and become a thorn on the side and a pain in the derriere of whatever is left of the Grand Old Party.

What’s his endgame? This penniless billionaire is making enough money to survive, pay off his mysterious $400 Million debt, and stay out of jail. Now, he’s defrauding his own donors with his “Trump Election Defense Fund” for the use of overturning the election, by funneling 75% of all the money donated into the new “Save America PAC”, where the money is kept…stashed away for whatever “Trump’s future ambitions and endeavors might be”. It’s no secret, it also means he can legally pocket every penny of those contributions!

All his antics are the last act of a desperate man. All narcissistic psychopaths desperately need and live for the “attention”, to survive. When the party is over, you become yesterday’s news …and when the love is gone, you become nothing …a nobody!

He rarely comes out of the White House much anymore (except to play golf) since being declared “the loser”. Mostly, stays inside his bunker …brooding and tweeting his usual obscenities, complaints, and lies. Slandering people right and left. And every once in a while, if his “good fine people” are outside the gates, he’ll buzz around low & fly-over with the White House Helicopter, or he’ll get into his limo and have the Secret Service drive him through the crowd so he can wave & smile at them while seeing them yell and wave back…it’s his obsessive need for attention. Then, to the end of the block, around the corner…and back into his bunker.

Knowing you’re a worthless human being who doesn’t care about anyone else on the face of this earth but for yourself …and knowing of having 81+ million people agree with you & vote you out? …that hurts!

Leaving historically with a legacy of being publicly shamed as a corrupt Impeached ex-President, a loser who lost by more than 7.5 million votes and lost the popular vote in 2016 by more than 3 million votes!

And finally, never being liked or approved by the majority of America …never even coming close to reaching at least a 50% job approval rating throughout his entire 4-year gig!

He’s been forced out of his tiny little bubble of illusions & delusions …and thrown into the world of reality. Having it all happen publicly, in front of the entire world …and nowhere for the Trump Family and the Trump “brand” to ever hide!

For this little man, the eminent jail time waiting in the wings is not as bad as the shame of facing a public that’s learned the truth about “The Donald”…that he really is a Loser, a Liar, a Cheat, a huge Tax Fraud, and a Penniless Billionaire Con-Artist.

Psychologically projecting himself throughout his life for being the loser he’s always been, by calling everyone else in the world a loser …has caught up with him…and reality is now haunting him, dearly.

The self-proclaimed “King of Reality Shows” was in all his glory in today’s so-called “Reality TV” …it’s really all about what you (the producer) want to “pass” as Real. Like a Trump form of reality; WWE Pro Wrestling with his buddy, Vince McMahon, and the scripted feud between Donny & Vince on TV.

Like Wrestling, it always passes as being “real” …even if you already know it’s all fake! And no one is better than the King of Fake …America’s only ever faux president!

Being the greatest, smartest, and astute billionaire in the world …a stable genius, may all work in Reality TV, but in the real world, it’s transparently obvious he’s not a stable genius, he’s the polar opposite of being the greatest in anything, definitely verified for 4 years he’s not the smartest, and obviously, he’s not an astute billionaire …in fact, just a fraudulent penniless self-proclaimed billionaire.

There’s very little that’s real in reality tv …though, a few are truly legit. Seeing a family literally break-up after years working in business together, and then seeing them slowly make-up was pure classic, true reality …thanks to American Chopper & the Discovery Channel.

And it wasn’t due to the pressure of the constant cameras filming it…this all happened long before the show started. It was going to explode on the show or off the show …and the Discovery Channel caught it!

William Burkett once said; “People fight with reality. They fight it tooth and nail, with everything they’ve got. And anytime you are arguing or fighting with reality, reality will win. You can’t outsmart it. You can’t trick it. You can’t bend it to your will. Not now. Not ever.”

You can’t outsmart reality, Mr. Trump …you lost, and lost big …put-on your big boy pants, act like a real man, and admit defeat!

So, why did Donald Trump lose?

Truth & Reality Matters! Where do you start? His indecent & immoral degenerate character? 4 years of America being embarrassed in front of the world almost every single day?

Let’s start with misinforming and lying to the American Nation 30 seconds after taking the Oath of Office …with over 25,000+ lies from Nov. 8th, 2016 to Nov. 3rd, 2020.

Cheating to get elected with help of Russia’s online mass disinformation program and use of bots …all verified 100% by America’s entire intelligence community & confirmed by a GOP Senate Committee. That’s Treason.

His eternal passion for Schadenfreude, his love for cruelty …keeping children in dog cages, separating them and even ripping them away while still being breast-fed by their mothers, and keeping them away from their families…but mostly, enduring unquestionable cruelty and tragedy throughout the 4 years. That’s totally insanely criminal!

Working with Foreign Countries (Ukraine & Russia) to discredit his political opponent. That’s a Treasonous act.

Running a criminally corrupt administration, using Foreign actors, political racketeering, enriching himself and his political cronies. Committing Fraud, Money Laundering, Embezzling, Political Extortion, Nepotism up the kazoo, and destroying as much as he can of the Constitution’s Emoluments Clause. All that is Life in Prison!

The total outright planned systematic attack on Civil Rights and Equal Justice …openly advocating and promoting Hate & Racism, the Sedition of States, praising QAnon, openly encouraging violence, and fully embracing White Nationalism/Supremacy. Treason! Treason! Treason!

And how about giving away US Classified Information to the Russian Ambassador and the Russian Foreign Minister publicly inside the Oval Office, after kicking everybody out of the room? …that’s pure Electric Chair Treason, any way you cut it!!

Oh, yes! One more little problem facing this country, and the main reason why the not so stable genius, lost …over 16.5+ million Infections and 300,000+ Deaths from a Global Pandemic that he knew all about, back in Dec 2019 & Jan 2020! He knew from the very beginning!

Decided to call it a hoax, very systematically fabricating every move step by step, holding back life-saving measures, and totally misleading the American Public on the grave dangers concerning the state of theirs & their family’s Health…while discrediting Medical Science every step of the way. Purposely “Politicizing” the pandemic, while people keep dying!

And he still fighting it…encouraging all his supporters to gather in mass, like at his super-spreader events, and never wear a mask, which really doesn’t help while trying to control the virus!

And while millions go hungry, and massive lines of cars throughout the entire country lining up and waiting hours to receive food handouts …and the massive lines for COVID-19 testing, that just keeps growing by the day …the President of the United States is out playing golf!

Until Jan. 20th, 2021, he’s still president. Why doesn’t he do something and try to make things just a little better during his last days? Why doesn’t he try acting a little more decent & respectful and do something to help the Health Crisis in this country? …leave a little more dignity, and gracefully? Instead, he’s still acting like a spoiled little cry-baby who doesn’t know how to put on his big boy pants and walk away like a real man …with his head, up!

And then, people really have to ask why Donald Trump lost?!?!

Oddly enough, if he wasn’t so incompetent …if his administration wasn’t so incompetent, and if he really would’ve tried to properly lead the Nation during this very real pandemic crisis, instead of treating dead Americans as “collateral damage” …just a number for economic bean-counters to decide whether to remain open or closed? …if he would’ve been totally honest with the American People? The drama of this pandemic would’ve tilted in his favor, as the hero president who’s leading his country and doing his very best to stop Coronavirus! He may have won!

The biggest reason why Donald Trump lost was Donald Trump!

It’s his dirty, indecent, and immoral degenerate corrupt character, his dirty filthy mind, and his dirty fowl-mouth. But, if he acted like a President whose concerned about his American constituents’ lives if he worked and showed he cared? …he may very well still be President!

Those who first elected him, many thought he’ll take the job seriously, and being a “non-politico”? …they believed in giving him a chance to learn …call it, on the job training!

Well, he never took the job seriously, and he didn’t learn anything from 4 years of “on the job” training! Now, 4 years later, 74 million still voted for Trump? What’s their excuse besides sheer institutionalized systemic ignorance & blind loyalty, if it’s not hatred and racism?

After 4 years, how many people do you have to fool that are still alive from this Pandemic, to keep your job?

The majority of this country already knew, heard, and seen the same spiel this con-artist has pulled for years! …and still, they’ve had no other choice but to put up for 4 years watching our president, openly on LiveTV and in front of the world, literally flip-off America every single day of his presidency!

Before the vote began, he said that he’ll admit defeat if it’s an Electoral Landslide. He called his win in 2016 with 304 electoral votes (2 Trump and 5 Clinton electors voted for others) a landslide victory! Well, Biden ended up with 306, which means, it makes it a slightly bigger landslide, right?

Now, he says he’ll abide by the Electoral College’s decision, but won’t concede? Like everything about the Donald …won’t believe it till I see it! By the way, a caution warning to the permanent White House Staff; When the Trumps move out their personal furniture, keep an eye open …not unusual or above the values for this clan, to pick up a couple 5 finger-discount items that are White House properties.

Well! The American people have spoken, Mr. President. …Bye! Bye! The party’s over, time to call it a night! You’ve been terminated; Now, you don’t have to go home …but you can’t stay here!

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice?!?! …YOU ARE FIRED!

#2020 Elections #Donald Trump #reality #biden/harris #president-elect joe biden #vice-president elect #racial equality #global pandemic #coronavirus deaths #trump lost

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dreaminginthedeepsouth · 4 years

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

December 2, 2020

Heather Cox Richardson

December 2, 2020 (Wednesday)

Yesterday evening, Trump’s disgraced former National Security Advisor, retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn-- whom Trump recently pardoned after he pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with then-Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kislyak before Trump took office-- retweeted a news release from a right-wing Ohio group called “We the People Convention.” That release contained a petition asking Trump to declare martial law, suspend the Constitution, silence the media, and have the military “oversee a national re-vote.”

The petition ends with a threat of violence, calling on Trump “to boldly act to save our nation…. We will also have no other choice but to take matters into our own hands, and defend our rights on our own, if you do not act within your powers to defend us.”

University of Texas School of Law Professor Steve Vladeck pointed out that “The Uniform Code of Military Justice defines as ‘sedition’ one who, ‘with intent to cause the overthrow or destruction of lawful civil authority, creates, in concert with any other person, revolt, violence, or other disturbance against that authority.’…”

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley today pointedly distanced the military from talk of a coup. “Our military is very very capable… we are determined to defend the U.S. Constitution,” he said. “No one should doubt that.” A defense official told Military Times that the idea of Trump declaring martial law and having the military re-do the election is “insane in a year that we didn’t think could get anymore insane.”

He spoke too soon. This afternoon the president released a video of himself making a speech he said was “maybe the most important speech I’ve ever made.” It was a 46-minute rant insisting, despite all evidence to the contrary, that he won the 2020 election. While he has lost virtually every court challenge he has mounted and his own Attorney General, William Barr, has said there was no evidence of fraud that would change the outcome of the election, Trump continues to insist that there was “massive” voter fraud, and called on the Supreme Court to “do what’s right for our country” including throwing out hundreds of thousands of Democratic votes so “I very easily win in all states.”

Joe Biden leads Trump in the popular vote with 80.9 million votes to Trump’s 74 million. Biden has won the Electoral College by 306 votes to Trump’s 232. These results are not close.

Let me take a step back here for a minute to emphasize that this is dangerous, unprecedented… and crazy. The president of the United States is trying to undermine an election for which there is no evidence there was any irregularity, in order to stay in power. He might be doing so for the money—he has raised $170 million so far on promises to challenge this election—or because he is worried about the lawsuits he can expect as soon as he is not protected by the presidential office.

Or, perhaps, he is simply escalating his rhetoric to continue to grab headlines as he feels the focus of the world slipping away from him and he cannot stand it. For the focus of the world is indeed slipping away from him.

The president has largely ceased to govern, nursing his grievances in the White House and emerging only to golf.

The coronavirus pandemic is burning out of control. A new estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes that deaths from Covid-19 are likely much higher than official numbers suggest. Deaths in the United States were 19% higher from March to November of this year than normal. More than 345,000 people than normal have died in that period. This number includes deaths from other causes—drug overdoses, for example—but suggests that the pandemic has exacerbated death rates aside from those caused by Covid-19.

Today we hit a grim milestone, with at least 2,760 new deaths today from Covid. This is the highest daily death toll in America so far, passing the spring high-water mark. Coronavirus hospitalizations also reached a new high with more than 100,000 people admitted.

Democrats made a huge concession in their efforts to combat the pandemic recession today, dropping their call for a $2 trillion coronavirus package and accepting the new bipartisan $908 billion package as the starting point for negotiations with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The new plan calls for $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits from December 1 to at least March; $240 billion in Paycheck Protection Program assistance for small businesses (this will be touchy because we learned today that most of the money from the original PPP went to big businesses, including a number of chains); $160 billion for state and local governments; $51 billion in money for vaccines and healthcare; and a temporary liability provision to shield businesses from lawsuits related to coronavirus.

McConnell has already rejected this bipartisan measure, but Senator John Thune (R-SD), part of the Republican leadership, called the Democrats’ willingness to come so far down “progress.” For his part, Biden today agreed with Americans talking about the recession in a virtual roundtable that Congress must “pass a robust package of relief to address your urgent needs now,” but reminded them: “my ability to get you help immediately does not exist. I’m not even in office for another 50 days. And then I have to get legislation passed through the United States Congress to get things done.”

Still, for all that Trump’s posturing seems like a sign that he sees power slipping away from him as the country confronts the pandemic and the recession without him, his words are a deadly assault on our democracy by the man who swore an oath to defend it. This attack cannot be dismissed as Trump being Trump. It strikes at the very heart of who we are.

For all that attacking the election might be reality television for Trump, his supporters take it very seriously indeed. At a rally in Georgia, Trump’s ally, lawyer Lin Wood, insisted he had seen the “real” results of the election, and that Trump won “over 410” electoral votes. “He damn near won every state including California!” The crowd blamed Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, a Republican, for the fact that the state’s recount did not go to Trump. “Lock him up!” they chanted.

Today, the Supervisor of Elections in Pasco County, Florida, Republican Brian E. Corley, said he felt compelled to speak out against those attacking the election. “Facts are stubborn things,” he wrote in a statement. It is a lie to say the election was fraudulent, he said, and "[w]ith every deep state conspiracy and illegitimate claim of fraud our democracy sinks deeper and deeper into divisiveness. As the world looks on, the greatest democracy in the world dares to risk the peaceful and orderly transition of power in favor of propagating unfounded claims of ‘rigged elections.’" “The people have spoken, and… the election is over.”

Tonight, the Vermont Secretary of State’s Office tweeted that their elections team was “threatened with execution by firing squad.” It said, “This has to stop. The wild, unfounded accusations amplified by [Trump] need to stop.”

But much of Republican Party leadership is not denouncing Trump’s behavior. Leaders are staying silent, although they are sidling away from him. It is noticeable that Vice President Mike Pence has been silent about Trump’s reelection accusations—he was on the ticket, too, after all—and although Trump has made it clear he intends to run again in 2024, Trump’s hand-picked Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel has invited about a dozen potential 2024 candidates to a meeting in January, signaling that she is not wedded to another Trump candidacy.

Meanwhile, Trump’s former lawyer Sidney Powell illustrated the growing divide between Trump supporters and the Republican Party when, after insisting that Trump lost in Georgia because the voting machines there are not secure, she urged voters to boycott January’s runoff Senate elections in the state. Those elections will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.

While today’s Republicans are looking the other way as their president undermines our democracy, it has not always been this way. On this date in 1954, the Senate voted 67 to 22 to condemn the behavior of Senator Joe McCarthy, who lied and bullied and blustered to stay in power until finally, in televised hearings, lawyer Joseph Nye Welsh shook his head at McCarthy’s recklessness and cruelty and asked: “Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?

—-

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

Heather Cox Richardson

#quotes #Letters From An American #Heather Cox Richardson #political #National Soap Opera #election 2020 #corrupt GOP #criminal GOP #Mad King

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nigeiadigitalmarketingcompany · 5 years

Text

2:00PM Water Cooler 8/1/2019

Digital Elixir 2:00PM Water Cooler 8/1/2019

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, I’ll have more on politics after I throw in a laundry! –lambert

“Trump’s Bid to Dismantle Global Trading System Poised for a Win” [Industry Week]. “Thanks to a U.S. veto on new appeals judges, the WTO’s dispute arm is expected to start slipping into the institutional equivalent of a coma at the end of this year. That has set off a scramble by the European Union, Canada and other countries to set up a temporary alternative allowing the use of arbitrators rather than three-judge panels to hear appeals. But by creating that system, WTO members may be giving Trump and aidesーwho, like him, have deep-rooted skepticism of multilateral institutionsーthe very thing they want. Arbitration would above all provide the flexibility the U.S. is after, Vaughn said. It would see disputes treated as individual cases, avoiding the precedent-dependent system the WTO appellate body has become.”

“Inside the lose-lose trade fight between Japan and South Korea” [Nikkei Asian Review]. “[There is a] growing ‘Boycott Japan’ movement spreading across South Korea. South Koreans have also stopped buying cars, beer, cosmetics and just about anything else bearing the label ‘Made in Japan.’ Some are even canceling their summer holidays…. Well-organized protests are not uncommon in South Korea, and they tend to pass relatively quickly. But these boycotts — which in South Koreans’ minds are tied with the emotionally-charged issue of wartime labor and a sense that their most successful companies are under attack — may be different. The movement kicked off shortly after the decision by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration on July 4 to tighten controls on exports of three chemicals essential for making semiconductors and flat panel screens used in smartphones and TVs. By choking off supplies of the chemicals — Japan’s market share for two of them stands at more than 90% — the Abe administration was essentially taking aim at the engine that powers South Korea’s high-tech economy.”

“USDA gave almost 100 percent of Trump’s trade war bailout to white farmers” [New Food Economy]. • Deceptive headline erases class: “The Environmental Working Group (EWG) has documented that the program has disproportionately helped wealthy landowners and a recent analysis by Donald Carr, a senior advisor for EWG, argues that the MFP has deepened the disadvantages of black and minority farmers.”

Politics

“But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They had one weapon left and both knew it: treachery.” –Frank Herbert, Dune

“2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination” [RealClearPolitics] (average of five polls). As of July 30: Biden continues rise at 32.2% (32.0), Sanders flat at 16.2% (16.2%), Warren up at 14.3% (14.0%), Buttigieg flat at 5.6% (5.5%), Harris up at 10.8% (10.5%), others Brownian motion. Sanders opens a little daylight between him and Warren, for the first time in two weeks.

* * *

2020

Sanders (D)(1): “Sanders Calls Out CNN for Airing Pharma Commercials During 2020 Debate” [Truthout]. “Pointing to the PAHCF commercial — which is part of a six-figure ad campaign against Medicare for All — Warren Gunnels, Sanders’s staff director, tweeted, ‘If Medicare for All was on trial, the entire corporate media would have to recuse itself for a y-u-g-e conflict of interest.’”

Williamson (D)(1): “Marianne Williamson isn’t funny. She’s scary.” [Vox]. “In her book A Return to Love, Williamson wrote that “sickness is an illusion and does not exist,” and that “cancer and AIDS and other physical illnesses are physical manifestations of a psychic scream.’”

The Debates

“Only 7 Candidates Have Qualified for the Next Democratic Debate” [New York Times]. “The Democratic National Committee has set stricter criteria for the third set of debates, which will be held on Sept. 12 and Sept. 13 in Houston. If 10 or fewer candidates qualify, the debate will take place on only one night. Candidates will need to have 130,000 unique donors and register at least 2 percent support in four polls. They have until Aug. 28 to reach those benchmarks. These criteria could easily halve the field.” • The seven are: Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, O’Rourke, Sanders, and Warren. Castro, Klobuchar, and Yang are close.

“Can Someone Please Vote CNN Off the Stage?” [Bloomberg]. “Ten of the Democrats debated on Tuesday night. But the debate was dominated by Jake Tapper, Dana Bash and Don Lemon – CNN’s moderators…. ˛After Tuesday night’s event, I have to believe that there are plenty of people at the Democratic National Committee – and plenty of candidates and their staff – who are fed up with debates that put the TV stars first. I wouldn’t be surprised, especially if things go badly over the rest of the cycle, if both parties start thinking seriously about running their own shows in 2024.” • Yes, it’s always possible to make things worse. Why not go back to the League of Women Voters? The very last thing I want is the DNC exerting even more control over the process, and I would bet there are plenty of voters who think just the same about the RNC.

Obama Legacy

“Obama Presidential Center would have ‘adverse impact’ on historic Jackson Park, federal review concludes” [Chicago Sun-Times (DG)]. “The project would diminish the ‘the historic property’s overall integrity by altering historic, internal spatial divisions that were designed as a single entity’ by renowned landscape architect Frederick Law Olmsted, the [Federal Highway Administration] concluded. It also concludes the ‘size and scale of new buildings’ would ‘diminish the intended prominence of the Museum of Science and Industry building and alter the overall composition and design intent of balancing park scenery with specific built areas.’ … The finding puts pressure on the Obama Foundation to find a way to ‘resolve adverse effects’ and turns up the heat on Mayor Lori Lightfoot to order the foundation to make those changes. ‘The Obama Foundation has yet to show any interest in compromising on any of this. It may take [Lightfoot] to bring them to the table,’ said Margaret Schmid, co-president of Jackson Park Watch. ‘It means there are lots of new obstacles facing this proposal. A big question is, does Chicago want to go on record as having allowed a project that has major adverse impacts on this important historic park or can the project be redesigned to be compatible with this historic landscape?’” • A classic permitting battle. Go forth and do likewise with your local fossil fuel infrastruture project!

Stats Watch

Jobless Claims, week of July 27, 2019: “New claims are steady and low and consistent with strong demand for labor” [Econoday]. “This report together with this morning’s Challenger report point to decreasing layoffs and increasing strength for jobs.”

Challenger Job-Cut Report, July 2019: “Increasing strength in the labor market is the indication from Challenger’s job-cut count” [Econoday]. “Yet weakness in manufacturing and related equipment investment, not questions in the labor market, is what the Federal Reserve cited as central to yesterday’s rate cut and here the news is not upbeat.”

Institute For Supply Management Manufacturing Index, July 2019: “Extending a straight slope down, ISM’s index fell” [Econoday]. “This report, together with very similar results from the manufacturing PMI sample released earlier this morning, do support the Federal Reserve’s concerns over manufacturing and specifically confirm Jerome Powell’s remarks at yesterday’s press conference that business contacts in the manufacturing sector, citing global slowing and tariff effects, are reporting trouble.”

Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index, July 2019: “Markit’s US manufacturing sample has been moving steadily from slowing conditions to nearly stagnant conditions” [Econoday]. “The lack of confidence is affecting staffing levels which for this sample posted their first reduction in six years. Production moved forward last month but at the expense of backlogs which edged lower.”

Construction Spending, June 2018: “The construction sector has been a stubborn disappointment all year, failing to show much life despite strong conditions in the domestic economy and favorable financing rates” [Econoday]. “This report brings up questions of possible contraction in foreign investment in US real estate and whether construction, like manufacturing, is being pulled down by global slowing and related tariff effects.”

Banking: “AI is a road to customer success—but banks need to create guardrails too” [American Banker]. “Customers today yearn for a personalized human experience tailored to their needs, wants, and expectations – whether they are in your branch, dialing into your call center, or contacting you over social media. Advanced technologies can help banks create such experiences.” • Yeah, I’m yearning for a personalized human experience delivered by a human.

Banking: “Digital banks are racking up users, but will they ever make money?” [Quartz]. “The UK has become something of a laboratory for newfangled digital banks, which are attracting thousands of new customers each day. But there are some big questions: Will bigger legacy banks eventually learn the fintech firms’ tricks? And will the so-called neobanks ever become profitable?… ‘I’ve heard of situations where core banking platforms are written in COBOL and the coders are starting to die out,’ said Michael Kent, CEO of money transfer startup Azimo and a founder of Tandem, a neobank. ‘They’re spending billions and billion and billions to try to fix that huge technical debt.’” • I’m sure writing everything from the ground up in Node.js will solve everything.

Credit: “Sorry, you’re not getting $125 from the Equifax settlement, FTC says” [MarketWatch]. “The Federal Trade Commission announced Wednesday that, due to an overwhelming response, cash payments aren’t going to be anywhere near $125 each, and urged consumers to sign up for the free credit monitoring offered as an alternative.” • So, if I have this right, I now have to give Equifax even more of my data, as compensation for the data they lost? More: “‘A large number of claims for cash instead of credit monitoring means only one thing: each person who takes the money option will wind up only getting a small amount of money,’ the FTC said in a blog post Wednesday.” • What kind of settlement is that? What was the FTC thinking when it drafted it? Wikipedia notes: “Most people get little benefit from paying for regular credit reporting.” Who on earth wouldn’t want the [family blogging] cash?

Housing: “LGBTQ-centric neighborhoods offer home price premiums, studies suggest” [Los Angeles Times]. “[G]ayborhood residents can cash in big — up to 294% more value for their homes compared with those in surrounding metro areas, as shown in the [Zillow] analysis of 36 housing markets, released in May.”

Shipping: “The world’s biggest shipyards are forging a new landscape for buying and building ocean vessels. The impending mergers of the shipbuilders in South Korea and in China will create two behemoths that will control around 46% of the global market among the world’s top 10 yards” [Wall Street Journal]. “That will give the combined Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and the merged China Shipbuilding Industry Corp. and China State Shipbuilding Corp. weightier control of the global market for ships over smaller competitors.”

Manufacturing: “Airbus SE is trying to speed up its supply chain while rival Boeing Co. is just hoping to get part of its production line moving at all. Airbus increased its quarterly profit more than fivefold despite bottlenecks that have hobbled the company’s ability to step up the delivery pace… Airbus has been struggling to produce more of the largest version of its A321 single-aisle aircraft, and delays in deliveries have aggravated airlines’ capacity issues caused by the grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX” [Wall Street Journal]. “Airbus increased its deliveries by 28% in the first half of the year to 389 planes but still must deliver about 500 jets the rest of the year to meet its financial targets. Airbus may face pushback from parts suppliers. Slower traffic growth has suppliers to both Airbus and Boeing getting cautious about supporting higher aircraft production.”

Fodder for the Bulls: “The Next Bailout May Come From Consumers” [Conor Sen, Bloomberg (FluffytheObeseCat)]. “Now that we know the saving rate is at 8.1%, rather than 6.1% as believed a month ago, we can see how different this environment is for households versus the past two cycles. In December 2000, on the brink of the 2001 recession, the saving rate was 4.2%. In December 2007, as the great recession was beginning, the saving rate was 3.7%. The saving rate would have to fall by around 4% — equivalent to around $750 billion i.. n annual consumption — before households would find themselves as tapped out as they were then…. With the saving rate high relative to the last 25 years, households aren’t in the position where they need to save more. So if an economic shock originated elsewhere — if corporations or the government found themselves needing to save more — households could spend more.” • The comments are interesing: “Too bad all that saving is only in the top 10% of incomes,” “The problem with the suggestion that savings rate is up… up for who? We have auto loan defaults higher than ever. There is a disconnect between who is saving and who is not… my guess is the savers are not spenders and will not spend us out of an economic slowdown.” What do readers think?

The Biosphere

“Life is tough” [Aeon]. “Extremophiles tell us that everything we think we know about the fragility of life is wrong. Life is indeed extraordinary, not to mention precious and deserving of reverence – but not in any sense miraculous. The word extremophile didn’t exist until the 1970s. It entered wide circulation only after 1979 when the US Navy’s submersible Alvin revealed ecosystems prospering in deep-ocean hydrothermal vents. The Alvin scientists discovered organisms living in superheated water and largely metabolising hydrogen sulphide, which until then had been thought toxic and incompatible with life…. Extremophiles are in a sense antitheological and a cure for life-worshipping mysticism, another nail in the coffin that proclaims living things to be divinely created because they couldn’t possibly derive from natural processes. They also expand the possible playing field within which life initially evolved.”

* * *

First Philly, now these. Summer heats up the pipes, or something?

“Kentucky gas explosion: One person killed, 5 injured” [CNN]. “A gas explosion rocked a Kentucky community Thursday morning, leaving one person dead and lighting at least six homes on fire, according to local authorities…. Gilliam said authorities believe the explosion was the result of a rupture of a 30-inch gas transmission pipeline, but it will take time to definitively determine the cause.”

“Explosion, fire at Exxon Mobil Baytown plant injures 37” [Houston Chronicle]. “A fire at an Exxon Mobil plant in Baytown Wednesday morning injured 37 people and sent a plume of smoke over a Houston-area chemical facility for the fourth time since April. It was the second fire this year at an Exxon Mobil facility in Baytown. The company’s operations in the east Harris County city have a history of environmental violations stretching back to 2013. The cause of Wednesday’s fire was not immediately known, although the company said the blaze began with an explosion.”

“Boom Goes the Plastics Industry” [Sierra Club]. “Facing intensifying global efforts to curtail the use of oil and gas for transportation and energy—and at the same time seeking markets for the torrent of oil and gas from the US fracking boom—the fossil fuel industry is looking to plastics as a lifeline. Today, 14 percent of oil and 8 percent of gas is used for the manufacture of petrochemicals, the essential feedstock of plastic production. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2050, 50 percent of the growth in oil demand will be related to petrochemicals… ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco, among the world’s largest fossil fuel companies, are betting big on plastics. … The American Chemistry Council reports that since 2010, plans for 333 new chemical-manufacturing projects have been announced in the United States, representing more than $200 billion in capital investments; the industry association notes that “much of the investment is geared toward export markets for chemistry and plastics products.’”

Guillotine Watch

“Backlash at barefoot Prince Harry and ‘hypocrite Greenerati’: Eco-warrior elite who turned up at secret climate change Google camp in 114 private jets, helicopters and mega yachts are mocked for leaving their own carbon footprint” [Daily Mail]. • As usual, the Daily Mail headline tells the entire story, but for more detail: “A host of A-list celebrities faced an angry backlash today after they travelled to a climate change conference in Italy in a fleet of supercars, expensive yachts and more than 100 private jets…. h The event, created by Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, sees some of the world’s wealthiest business leaders and tech gurus discussing various issues in morning sessions before relaxing in the Italian sunshine in the afternoon.” • Poor optics! The guest list is amusing, too.

“Where the Wealthy Go in Private Jets, From Bahamas to Barbados” [Bloomberg]. “Private jet flights climbed almost 10% last year, according to an analysis of 30 island destinations by real estate broker Knight Frank and aviation adviser WingX. Private jets flew to islands in the Americas almost 30,000 times, making them the world’s top hub for non-commercial aviation, led by the Bahamas, Puerto Rico and the Cayman Islands… The Philippines, Maldives and Bali were the top destinations in the Asia-Pacific region, which saw private-jet arrivals increase more than 80%, reflecting a wealth boom in which China minted a new billionaire roughly every other day.”

“Harvard has the highest number of ultra-rich alumni — by an insane margin” [MarketWatch]. “Harvard is in an Ivy League of its own, with more than 13,650 estimated [Ultra-High Net Worth (UHNW)] alumni worth $4.769 trillion — more than double the figure for Stanford…. Wealth-X reports that almost 80% of this group made their own fortunes, rather than inheriting it. In fact, most of the UHNW alumni (84%) were self-made…. [J]ust 244 of the 2,153 billionaires in the world are women, and women account for just 6.6% of Fortune 500 CEOs.”

“Jeffrey Epstein Hoped to Seed Human Race With His DNA” [New York Times]. “On multiple occasions starting in the early 2000s, Mr. Epstein told scientists and businessmen about his ambitions to use his New Mexico ranch as a base where women would be inseminated with his sperm and would give birth to his babies, according to two award-winning scientists and an adviser to large companies and wealthy individuals, all of whom Mr. Epstein told about it. It was not a secret. The adviser, for example, said he was told about the plans not only by Mr. Epstein, at a gathering at his Manhattan townhouse, but also by at least one prominent member of the business community.” • Lifting the lid on elite networking and money-grubbing. Epstein’s Harvard sweatshirt is prominently displayed in the photographs that accompany the article…

Class Warfare

“As Alaska’s budget uproar rolls on, a top Dunleavy adviser has seen it before” [Anchorage Daily News]. “But say the name “Donna Arduin” to an Alaskan these days and they’re likely to know exactly who you’re talking about. Arduin has been in the spotlight since Gov. Mike Dunleavy hired her as his top state budget executive shortly after his election in November, at a salary of $195,000. Her reputation preceded her: Arduin, 56, has an almost 30-year career as an itinerant ‘budget fixer’ of sorts, working for a series of Republican governors to balance state budgets, often by instituting drastic spending cuts…. “I joined government to shrink it,” Arduin said in a profile published in her Duke University alumni magazine in 2006. (The profile ends with Arduin whispering under her breath “get a job” to a panhandling man.)” • She sounds nice. The same alert reader who submitted this link also sent this note about the Alaska ferries:

I am one of the ferry passengers who has been stranded due to the shutdown of the ferries. I am currently on an island which is only accessible by boat and plane, and since the government-operated ferry is out of service, and there is no private ferry which can get me closer to my destination, plane is the only option. I have booked a flight ticket out, which will be my first time on an airplane since 2014. I am in a better position than many of my fellow passengers. Many other passengers have vehicles, which cannot be moved by airplane. Some of them were also riding the ferries to get medical care not available in their home communities, and are concerned about being able to make their doctor’s appointments. Some of them are also going to take a much bigger financial hit than I will. Of course, those of us who are not Alaska residents (or who are leaving Alaska) will not need to deal with this situation anymore once we manage to leave Alaska. The coastal communities of Alaska will continue to feel the repercussions as long as there is a loss of ferry service, especially if the severe budget cuts make the loss of ferry service permanent.

“Labor of Love”‘ [The Baffler]. “”Full Surrogacy Now,” the rallying cry, is a radical demand for the dissolution of notions like ‘biological parents’ and their opposites, (underpaid) (hired) (invisible) gestational surrogates. ‘We are the makers of one another,’ [Sophie] Lewis writes. ‘And we could learn collectively to act like it. It is those truths that I wish to call real surrogacy, full surrogacy.’ …. The problem, in Lewis’s view, isn’t that women are risking their lives and paid shockingly low wages to bear the offspring of others, efforts which are considered ‘generous’ instead of ‘a job,’ before being erased from family histories entirely. The problem is that we haven’t spent any time considering what the fact and endurance of surrogacy from at least the transatlantic slave-trade days to the present might say about unwaged pregnancy. After all, pregnancy is—well, labor.” • Hmm.

No aristocracy here:

Blue Ivy Carter, daughter of Beyoncé, just scored her first Billboard Hot 100 hit with "Brown Skin Girl."

She's 7. pic.twitter.com/nAnZLeXi2r

— AJ+ (@ajplus) August 1, 2019

News of the Wired

The historical record:

O thank goodness, someone has finally made a documentary about ANSI arthttps://t.co/CSBJGEZP5j

— Jason Scott (@textfiles) July 31, 2019

* * *

Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, with (a) links, and even better (b) sources I should curate regularly, (c) how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal, and (d) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. Today’s plant (Eric W):

Eric W writes: “The pitcher plant is from early April in Maine. Wow.” Indeed!

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So do feel free to make a contribution today or any day. Here is why: Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for five or ten days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of small donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals. So if you see something you especially appreciate, do feel free to click this donate button:

Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated.

Readers, I have redesigned the image above because the composition of your Water Cooler donations has changed. For the last few months, donations have shifted to monthly donations in smaller amounts, with very few one-time donations in larger amounts. While I’m very happy to have enabled small contributions (Luke 21:1-4), the lack of larger contributions has cut into the trickle of funding from Water Cooler that I really do depend on. In other words, your contributions are way down. (Readership and comment counts have not fallen, so I don’t think Water Cooler editorial content as such is the issue, though do feel free to drop me a line if you have thoughts.)

So, I redesigned the image to emphasize one-time donations, while still enabling smaller monthly donations. And if you’ve been waiting for a good excuse to contribute, perhaps last night’s debate coverage will provide an excuse!

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marcjampole · 6 years

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The Party will matter more than the candidate for Democrats in 2020, so Dems should play the Electoral College game

Whoever the Democrats run as president in 2020 will represent the Party and the Party platform far more than is usual, mainly because there is so much unity among Democrats when it comes to platform issues—no matter what the mainstream media says.

On every issue on which the mainstream media says there is disagreement—be it minimum wage, healthcare or immigration—all Democrats are at a position extremely to the left of Republicans and relatively close to each other. All want a dramatic increase in the minimum wage. All will return to a foreign policy built on negotiating treaties and acting in unison with our allies. All will open the borders to refugees and end the crackdown on immigrants. They all will increase the federal government’s hand in healthcare and rollback the Trump rollbacks of Obama regulations. All will want to increase incentives to use solar, wind and other forms of renewable energy. Every Democrat will nominate pro-abortion judges. Under each and every Democrat, a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress will lead to tax increases on the wealthy and corporations.

Thus, to select a 2020 Democratic candidate because of his or her stand on the issues is foolish. There are not the stark contrasts between potential candidates, as there were between Gerry Ford and Ronald Reagan in 1976, or between Edward Kennedy and Jimmy Carter in 1980. It’s more like the Republicans in 2016, when everyone running agreed on every issue with the eventual nominee.

With issues out of the consideration, Democrats should nominate the most electable candidate. While some, especially believers in Beto O’Rourke’s “magic,” would define electability entirely in terms of charisma, I prefer to look at the electoral map, which as we know favors the GOP because it gives a greater say to smaller, more rural states. Even though 21st century Democrats have enjoyed a huge advantage in the popular vote for president, winning four out of five times, the electoral advantage Republicans hold have led to their winning three of five elections.

Current political divides leave the election in the hands of a handful of states with 93 votes in the Electoral College, all of which went for Trump in extremely tight races in 2016: Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). At the very least, the Democrats have to figure out a way to turn 39 of these 93 electoral votes.

Luckily, the good citizens of Florida almost assuredly just gave Democrats 29 of the 37 electoral votes they need by voting to allow Sunshine State ex-cons who have served their time to vote. That move has the potential to add 1.3 million people to the Florida voting rolls in 2020, most of whom are predicted to vote a straight Democratic Party line. Recent Florida elections have seen razor thin margins, meaning that the vote to give rehabilitated felons the vote should turn Florida a deep shade of blue.

With Florida’s 29 electoral votes in the Democratic column, all Democrats have to do is turn one other of these swing state. One of the surest ways to get a swing state to vote for a candidate is if the candidate calls that state home. Since 1920, there have been 30 presidential elections. Win or lose, 45 of the candidates (75%), won their home state and 15 (25%) lost their home state. In four of the elections, 1920, 1940, 1944 and 2016, both major party candidates came from the same state. If we net out those elections, candidates win their home state almost 80% of the time (41 candidates out of 52).

The male candidates currently under discussion include Corey Booker, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Beto O’Rourke, Martin O’Malley, Eric Holder, Andrew Cuomo, Chris Murphy and Sherrod Brown. Only one of these men resides in one of the key swing states, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, a likeable guy, a long-time liberal, friend of labor and admired by both the centrist and the leftist wings of the Democratic Party.

Sherrod Brown is the safest bet if the Democratic Party decides to play the Electoral College game because running Brown for president almost guarantees winning Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, which when added to Florida’s give the Democrats the White House. The wild card, of course, is John Kasich, another Ohio favorite son. If Kasich heads the Republican ticket—a distinct possibility if Trump has resigned or been impeached and convicted—it would cancel out the home state effect.

Kasich aside, a Brown-Harris, Brown-Warren, Brown-Gillibrand or Brown-Klobuchar ticket would be nearly ideal: It starts with a distinct electoral edge. It sends competent, deeply experienced and likeable progressives to the White House. And it readies the American people to elect a woman in 2024 or 2028

But really, any of the men on the above list except Beto O’Rourke would be fine to lead the 2020 Democratic ticket. To these names I would like to add Gavin Newsom, Jay Inslee and Phil Murphy. The Democrats do indeed have a deep bench ready to steer the country away from the disastrous economic, tax, foreign, environmental, educational and energy policies of the current administration.

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patriotsnet · 3 years

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Why Do Republicans Like Donald Trump

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/why-do-republicans-like-donald-trump/

Why Do Republicans Like Donald Trump

We Need Somebody Who’ll Finally Get Tough On Foreign Policy

Why Do So Many Republicans Like Donald Trump?

Well, there’s no doubt that Trump talks a tough game when it comes to other countries â he sort of makes it sound like the world will just roll over in front of him, exposing its collective belly for him to scratch. You may remember when he insisted that he’d bring oil prices down by swearing at OPEC leaders back in 2011, when he was teasing a possible 2012 run. Here’s what he told a Las Vegas audience, as detailed by Mother Jones.

We have nobody in Washington that sits back and said, you’re not going to raise that f***ing price.

He also had a simple message for China, saying “listen you motherf****rs, we’re going to tax you 25 percent!” This is in keeping with the general level of seriousness he seems to apply to his prognostications â he also insists that if he’s elected, he’ll force the Mexican government to finance a border wall, and that’s still nowhere near the most antagonistic component of his far-right immigration plan.

If you’re the kind of person who wants some more strident red lines in international negotiations, say â to try to secure those ever-elusive “better deals” that some conservatives have been harping on lately â that’s fine, even if we might disagree. But be forewarned: what Trump’s putting out there is little more than presumptuous bombast, so don’t be shocked if that ridiculous wall idea never comes to fruition.

Why Do Trump Voters Believe His Lies It’s Not Because They’re Stupid

The cornerstones of President Trumps campaign were promises to appeal Obamacare and ban Muslims from the US. It took Trump less than 70 days to fail on both promises.

And yet, despite his epic fails, lies and incompetence, Trumps base supports him like theyre spanx and hes Marie Osmond. What explains this loyalty? Science has the answer.

Have a look at this puzzle.

Which drawing best illustrates the correct mechanics and structure of a bicycle?

How you answer will help explain the loyalty of Trump voters. Ill explain in just a bit. But first

What I wanted to know is WTF!?

How can two people look at President Trump and have such polar opposite observations? To find out, I conducted an experiment. I set up a fake account and joined more than 50 pro-Trump Facebook groups. I created a meme that said: What do you like about President Trump, then I shared it.

I got more than a thousand responses in 24 hours and the things people wrote most is that they like Trump because hes not a politician hes a real American not corrupted by Washington, and beholden to no one.

The next most common response was that Trump believes in God.

This was followed in near equal measure by Trump Loves America, he keeps his promises, that hes a good businessman, that he cant be bought, and that he tells the truth.

OK. So, one of them is true! Trump is not a politician. One could go either wayhis love for America.

I got nearly 700 responses.

WATCH NOW:

Opinionthe Gop Needs Women And Centrist Voters Ousting Cheney Only Nets Them Trump Loyalists

More important, experts say, are the shifting demographics of those neighborhoods. “Suburbs are simply far more diverse than they used to be,” a FiveThirtyEight analysis explains. “Suburbs have also become increasingly well-educated, and that may actually better explain why so many suburbs and exurbs are turning blue.” Both communities of color and Americans with higher education tend to vote Democratic combine those factors and you have a recipe for major electoral shifts.

And there’s no indication that shift is reversing. Recent polling from Harvard’s Kennedy School shows Biden dominating the suburbs, where 6 in 10 voters view the president favorably. Biden and Democrats’ lead in suburbs is such an existential threat to the GOP that Georgia Republicans have collapsed into infighting over how suburbs once represented by then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich are now reliably Democratic bulwarks.

The Call for American Renewal is also hoping to recapture the support of women who have been fleeing the GOP since Trump’s first campaign. That may be harder than they think, too. Though it’s possible the group could restore some of the ground Trump lost to women, who went nearly 6-in-10 for Biden, Republicans have been losing women voters for years.

Mild dissatisfaction with Trump isnt the same as political courage. Most prominent Republicans have publicly aligned with Trump even as voter support erodes.

Poll Results Are Fake Unless Theyre Good Trump Says

During his speech at the Dallas convention Sunday night, Trump said he only would have believed the results of CPACs straw poll if they were his favor, Business Insider reported.

Now, if its bad, I just say its fake, the former president told the crowd, reported Insider. If its good, I say thats the most accurate poll, perhaps ever.

In the past, Trump has decried similar things he doesnt like as false, like referring to unfavorable media coverage as fake news.

A Large Share Of Republicans Want Trump To Remain Head Of The Party Cnbc Survey Shows

A CNBC survey conducted in the days before former President Donald Trump‘s impeachment trial finds a large share of Republicans want him to remain head of their party, but a majority of Americans want him out of politics.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows 54% of Americans want Trump “to remove himself from politics entirely.” That was the sentiment of 81% of Democrats and 47% of Independents, but only 26% of Republicans.

When it comes to Republicans, 74% want him to stay active in some way, including 48% who want him to remain head of the Republican Party, 11% who want him to start a third party, and 12% who say he should remain active in politics but not as head of any party.

“If we’re talking about Donald Trump’s future, at the moment, the survey shows he still has this strong core support within his own party who really want him to continue to be their leader,” said Jay Campbell, a partner with Hart Research and the Democratic pollster for the survey.

But Micah Roberts, the survey’s Republican pollster, and a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, emphasized the change from when Trump was president. Polls before the election regularly showed Trump with GOP approval ratings around 90%, meaning at least some Republicans have defected from Trump.

Republicans Cant Understand Democrats

Only one in four Republican voters felt that most or almost all Democratic voters sincerely believed they were voting in the best interests of the country. Rather, many Republicans told us that Democratic voters were brainwashed by the propaganda of the mainstream media, or voting solely in their self-interest to preserve undeserved welfare and food stamp benefits.

We asked every Republican in the sample to do their best to imagine that they were a Democrat and sincerely believed that the Democratic Party was best for the country. We asked them to explain their support for the Democratic Party as an actual Democratic voter might. For example, a 64-year-old strong Republican man from Illinois surmised that Democrats want to help the poor, save Social Security, and tax the rich.

But most had trouble looking at the world through Democratic eyes. Typical was a a 59-year-old Floridian who wrote I dont want to work and I want cradle to grave assistance. In other words, Mommy! Indeed, roughly one in six Republican voters answered in the persona of a Democratic voter who is motivated free college, free health care, free welfare, and so on. They see Democrats as voting in order to get free stuff without having to work for it was extremely common roughly one in six Republican voters used the word free in the their answers, whereas no real Democratic voters in our sample answered this way.

Trumps Role As Republican Party Leader Is Becoming Stronger

This weekends CPAC straw poll results showed that Trumps popularity along with DeSantis in the Republican Party has grown in the last six months, according to Forbes.

In February, only 55% of attendees of a similar CPAC event in Orlando, Florida, said they wanted Trump to lead the ticket in 2024, Forbes reported.

If Trump stayed in political retirement, or at least stayed off the presidential primary ballot in 2024, DeSantis lead the poll with 43% attending Republicans choosing him in Februarys hypothetical presidential primary.

Inside the newsroom: Words matter, including the hateful Murder the media

He Appeals To Rural Voters

More than any other group, Americas rural people have been disempowered and abandoned due to the policies pushed by urban elites. Theyve seen their jobs evaporate and their local culture obliterated, only to be replaced by a Walmart and McDonalds in every town. They also realize that most of the media and academia see them as ignorant and backwards and laughable. instead, Trump treats them with respect. If you look at an electoral map of 2016, Clinton won all the urban areas and Trump won all of the rural ones. Thats because he was the first politician in memory who didnt sneer at them.

Hes Nationalist Rather Than Globalist

Why Do People Act Like Black Conservatives Don’t Exist? | NBC News

He realizes that the ex-factory worker in Ohio lost his job because it was sent to Malaysia. He knows that some banker in Brussels is more interested in increasing his stock portfolio than whether doing so will render huge swaths of the American heartland jobless and pill-addicted. He cares more about what a homeowner in Iowa thinks about him than what some sneering cosmopolite at a Parisian cocktail party thinks.

Emboldened ‘unchanged’ Trump Looks To Re

Across the party as a whole, an NBC News poll released late last month found, a majority of Republicans considered themselves supporters of the GOP, compared to just 44 percent who supported Trump above all, the first time that has been the case since July 2019.

But mild dissatisfaction with Trump isn’t the same as political courage. Most prominent Republicans have publicly aligned with Trump even as voter support erodes, and they’re buckled in for the long haul. That creates the opening for more traditional Republicans to toy with forming a new party but it’s a slim one.

Why Does Donald Trump Still Seem To Hold Sway Over The Republican Party

Why after leading the Republican Party during a period when it lost its majority in the US House of Representatives and the Senate and its power in the White House does former president Donald Trump still seem to hold the Grand Old Party of Lincoln and Reagan in his thrall?

For US politics watchers, who on the weekend watched on as 43 Republican senators voted to acquit Trump of an act of reckless incitement played out in front of the cameras, that is the $64,000 question.

Or rather, it’s the 74,222,593-vote question.

That is the record number of Americans who voted for Donald Trump last November more than has been cast for any previous president. Unfortunately for them, an even greater number 81,281,502 voted for his rival, now-President Joe Biden.

As much as anything else, those numbers sum up the quandary Republicans find themselves in.

They have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, and only remain competitive because older white voters, who tend to be more likely to support conservative candidates, also tend to vote in greater numbers in a non-compulsory electoral system.

Those same voters are also the most likely to cast a ballot in next year’s house and senate primaries, and the next midterm elections in November 2022 which will again determine who holds power in congress. They are the voters who initially flocked to Donald Trump.

All The Republicans Who Wont Support Trump

Numerous top G.O.P. officials have said publicly or privately that they will not be backing the presidents re-election. Some have even endorsed Joe Biden. Heres a look at where they all stand.

Follow our latest coverage of the Biden vs. Trump 2020 election here.

As November draws nearer, some current and former Republican officials have begun to break ranks with the rest of their party, saying in public and private conversations that they will not support President Trump in his re-election. A number have even said that they will be voting for his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr.

As Mr. Trumps political standing has slipped, fueled by his failures in handling the coronavirus pandemic and by the economic recession, some Republicans have found it easier to publicly renounce their backing.

Here is a running list of those who have said they will support Mr. Biden in the fall, those who simply wont support Mr. Trump, and those who have hinted they may not back the president.

List Of Republicans Who Opposed The Donald Trump 2016 Presidential Campaign

This article is part of a series about

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who announced their opposition to the election of Donald Trump, the 2016 Republican Party nominee and eventual winner of the election, as the President of the United States. It also includes former Republicans who left the party due to their opposition to Trump and as well as Republicans who endorsed a different candidate. It includes Republican presidential primary election candidates that announced opposition to Trump as the nominee. Some of the Republicans on this list threw their support to Trump after he won the presidential election, while many of them continue to oppose Trump. Offices listed are those held at the time of the 2016 election.

Why Do Evangelical Christians Love Trump

To many, it seems hypocritical that Christians who have long touted family values could rally around a thrice-married man who was accused by several women of sexual assault.

White evangelical support for Donald Trump has long puzzled observers. To many, it seems hypocritical that Christians who have long touted family values could rally around a thrice-married man who was accused by several women of sexual assault. Scholars have commented on his crassness, defined by historian Walter G. Moss as a lack refinement, tact, sensitivity, taste or delicacy. Others have observed how he has broken rules of civil political engagement.

But in my research on evangelical masculinity, I have found that Trumps leadership style aligns closely with a rugged ideal of Christian manhood championed by evangelicals for more than half a century.

As I show in my book Jesus and John Wayne: How White Evangelicals Corrupted a Faith and Fractured a Nation, conservative evangelicals embraced the ideal of a masculine protector in the 1960s and 1970s in order to confront the perceived threats of communism and feminism.

Believing that the feminist rejection of macho masculinity left the nation in peril, conservative white evangelicals promoted a testosterone-fueled vision of Christian manhood. In their view, America needed strong men to defend Christian America on the battlefields of Vietnam and to reassert order on the home front.

Why it Matters

How I Do My Work

The Baffling Continued Support For Donald Trump Explained

Donald Trump has, by almost any measure, been the worst president in U.S. history, or at least within the memory of people living in 2020. But for some reason, he has remained popular with a sizable segment of Americans. While Joe Biden defeated him in the presidential election, 74 million Americans voted for Trump, and a large percentage of Republicans, like Trump himself, are denying that he actually lost the election. So why do Trumps diehard fans stay that way?

Yes, hes made some people happy with his tax cuts and appointments of right-wing judges, and he is beloved by white supremacists and conspiracy theorists, but he has downplayed a pandemic that has taken the lives of more than 276,000 Americans and caused an economic crash. One would think his personal style, bullying, and insults would alienate many people. Yet his approval ratings have remained stable at around 40 percent for most of his presidency, and the 40 percent cant all be fringe elements. What could possibly account for the continued unwavering support of Trump loyalists?

I think that there are a number of things at play, crosscurrents, if you will, said JoDee Winterhof, senior vice president for policy and political affairs at the Human Rights Campaign.

Winterhof likewise said she observed a decline in enthusiasm among voters who were counting on Trump for positive change and agreed that Biden was better positioned than Clinton among voters overall.

Opinionwe Want To Hear What You Think Please Submit A Letter To The Editor

The history of American third parties doesn’t offer much hope. Last year, Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen garnered just 1.2 percent of the vote in a typical third-party showing. In fact, no third-party candidate has achieved a double-digit popular vote total since Ross Perot in 1992, and data trends indicate that popular support for third parties has been in steady decline since then.

And even if the GOP 2.0 secures a marquee name like former Ohio Gov. John Kasich or Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah to champion its message, the role would likely be as a political spoiler rather than a serious candidate: Even former President Theodore Roosevelt, at the time one of the most popular figures in American culture, barely surpassed a quarter of the popular vote and garnered just 88 electoral votes in an iconic third-party campaign in 1912. No one on the Call for American Renewal bench commands anything near Roosevelt’s profile and platform.

That hasn’t stopped disaffected Republicans from setting their sights on fence-sitting “Biden Republicans” mostly suburban moderates who broke with Trump but remain aligned with GOP ideas like small government that have gone extinct in the post-Trump GOP. Those voters were largely responsible for Trump’s upset victory against Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Biden returned formerly right-leaning suburbs to the Democratic column to help power his 2020 win.

Taking The Perspective Of Others Proved To Be Really Hard

Why LGBTQ Republicans Hate The Party’s Platform But Like Donald Trump

He Says He Wants To Make America Great Again

Aided by global finance and a compliant press, Americas middle and working classes have been sold down the river. Nearly all of the manufacturing jobs have been shipped overseas, and what jobs remain here have seen their wages pushed down due to unrestrained immigration. America, once the shining light of the world, became a country ashamed of itself and that felt obligated to apologize to the rest of the world for being more successful than other countries. Something is deeply wrong when someone feels obligated to apologize for winningafter all, you never see that in sports. Trump wants to return us to a better time when people bragged about being American instead of apologizing for it

What Americans Really Think

Social scientists and psychologists believe that people subscribe to conspiracy theories for the simple reason that these theories often tend to validate their views of the world. Republicans believe all kinds of things about President Obama, and many liberals believe similar theories about President George W. Bush.

“For both liberals and conservatives, for everybody, there’s just this tendency to want to believe things that fit our worldview as we believe it,” said Joanne Miller, a political scientist the University of Minnesota and one of the authors of the new study. “Both liberals and conservatives are subject to that. It’s a human tendency to want to believe what we believe.”

In particular, conspiracy theories offer a simple explanation, with an identifiable villain, for the complicated reality of modern politics. That simplicity is appealing.

Miller and her collaborators — Christina Farhart and Colorado State University’s Kyle Saunders — used data from surveys of Americans who were asked whether they thought statements about politicians and public figures were true.

A few conspiracy theories were on the list. Four were designed to suss out conservative respondents:

that Obama was born outside the United States;

that his health-care reform established “death panels;”

that global warming was a hoax

and that Saddam Hussein was involved in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

There were four more theories for the other side:

Why Do Republicans Continue To Support Trump Despite Years Of Scandal

It was late September last year when a whistleblower complaint revealed that President Trump had tried to force the Ukrainian government to investigate Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Within moments the scandal captured headlines. What followed was months of back and forth as Republicans supported the president while the Democrats used their political capital to get him impeached.

But this was not the first time or the last time the president was caught in the middle of a scandal. Since the impeachment trial that followed the Ukraine incident, episodes from The New York Times uncovering unsavory details from President Trumps tax returns, to his questionable dismissal of multiple Inspectors General, to his refusal to clearly condemn white supremacists have all sparked widespread media attention and partisan fighting in 2020.

Although with his polls dropping, some Republicans may finally be distancing themselves from the President, the question has been regularly asked the past four years: why do the Republicans continue to support the President despite these troubling charges being leveled at him? And, what is it that the Democrats stand to gain from repeated allegations?

In addition to demonstrating how polarization accelerates scandals, the paper also found that:

Republicans Think Democrats Always Cheat

The Republican strategy has several sources of motivation, but the most important is a widely shared belief that Democrats in large cities i.e., racial minorities engage in systematic vote fraud, election after election. We win because of our ideas, we lose elections because they cheat us, insisted Senator Lindsey Graham on Fox News last night. The Bush administration pursued phantasmal vote fraud allegations, firing prosecutors for failing to uncover evidence of the schemes Republicans insisted were happening under their noses. In 2008, even a Republican as civic-minded as John McCain accused ACORN, a voter-registration group, of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy.

The persistent failure to produce evidence of mass-scale vote fraud has not discouraged Republicans from believing in its existence. The failure to expose it merely proves how well-hidden the conspiracy is. Republicans may despair of their chances of proving Trumps vote-fraud charges in open court, but many of them believe his wild lies reflect a deeper truth.

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patriotsnet · 3 years

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Why Are No Other Republicans Running For President

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/why-are-no-other-republicans-running-for-president/

Why Are No Other Republicans Running For President

A Very Very Long List Of Possible Republican Presidential Candidates

David French explains why he is not running for president

PBSNewsHour counts at least 17 Republicans who said or done something to show serious interest in running for president.;

After a presidential wannabe cattle call in Iowa last week, todays edition of the Morning Line,;a daily email from the political team of PBSNewsHour, says at least 17 Republicans have said or done something to indicate a fairly serious interest in running for the party of Lincolns presidential nomination in the next cycle .

Heres their list:

John Bolton, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump and Scott Walker.

I hate to say it, but they missed at least one ;South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham.

The NewsHour-ers cited four possible explanations for the huge field:

Money ; attention ; the Obama effect ; and history . Ive previously pushed back against the last explanation, but youll continue to hear it.

Ive also previously railed against the absurdity of having two of the 50 states hold a permanently outsized role in the presidential nomination process. Just to summarize: its absurd.

Why Republicans Are Begging Rubio To Run For The Senate

Influential Republicans are begging defeated presidential candidate Marco Rubio to forget about his pledge not to run for reelection and instead seek a second term as Florida senator because he could make the difference between Democratic and Republican control of the Senate.

With Donald Trump down in the polls, Republicans are wary of not only losing the White House but also that the real estate mogul could hurt GOP candidates for the House and the U.S. Senate. Republicans currently have 54 seats in the Senate, but they must defend seats in six states where President Obama won in 2012 and Hillary Clinton is the favorite this fall

Former Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo

If the 2024 election turns into a foreign policy debate, the 57-year-old Pompeo is in a strong position with his background as former secretary of state and CIA director.

During Pompeos recent speech at the Westside Conservative Club in Urbandale, Iowa, he gave a preview of some of the lines that might end up in his presidential stump speech. He said hes spent more time with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un than any other American, including basketball star Dennis Rodman, and talked about the threat he sees from China. His mention of the U.S. moving its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem during his tenure was met with applause.

Before serving in Trumps Cabinet, Pompeo blasted then-candidate Trump as an authoritarian. Pompeo made the remarks the day of the Kansas caucus in 2016, quoting Trump saying that if he told a soldier to commit a war crime, they would go and do it. Pompeo said the U.S. had spent 7½ years with an authoritarian president who ignored the Constitution, referencing former President Barack Obama, and we dont need four more years of that.

Pompeo served three full terms representing Kansas in the U.S. House before joining the Trump administration. He and his wife, Susan, have one child. He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy and Harvard Law and served in the U.S. Army.

Recommended Reading: Which 12 Republicans Voted Against Trump

Whos Running For President In 2020

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is the presumptive Democratic nominee to challenge President Trump in the 2020 race.

The field of Democratic presidential candidates was historically large, but all others have dropped out. Mr. Trump had also picked up a few Republican challengers, but they have also ended their campaigns.

Running

Has run for president twice before.

Is known for his down-to-earth personality and his ability to connect with working-class voters.

His eight years as Barack Obamas vice president are a major selling point for many Democrats.

Signature issues: Restoring Americas standing on the global stage; adding a public option to the Affordable Care Act; strengthening economic protections for low-income workers in industries like manufacturing and fast food.

Main legislative accomplishment as president: a sweeping tax cut that chiefly benefited corporations and wealthy investors.

Has focused on undoing the policies of the Obama administration, including on health care, environmental regulation and immigration.

Was impeached by the House of Representatives for seeking to pressure Ukraine to smear his political rivals, but was acquitted by the Senate.

Signature issues: Restricting immigration and building a wall at the Mexican border; renegotiating or canceling international deals on trade, arms control and climate change; withdrawing American troops from overseas.

Ended her campaign in March 2020 and said she would back Mr. Biden.

Rubio ‘very Disturbed’ By Trump’s Judge Comments

There is no guarantee Rubio would win in November. But compared to the five Republicans who are currently running in a primary to replace him, Rubio has many advantages. He has high name recognition from both his 2010 Senate campaign and his presidential run, as well as an established fundraising network.

If Trump struggles in Florida, Rubio may need some voters who back Clinton to support him at the same time. And the Florida senator may be well-positioned to encourage such ticket-splitting. A Latino Republican like Rubio, who is Cuban-American, could convince Florida voters that he does not agree with Trumps controversial views on racial issues.

For the Republican Party, Rubio is a tested candidate who has already run successfully statewide. With Rubio on the ballot, party operatives could invest more money and key staff in other races. And if some or all of the five Republicans currently in the Florida GOP Senate primary drop out if Rubio as runs, as expected, the party could consolidate around the incumbent early and focus on the general election.

Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson, two congressmen, are competing for the Democratic nomination for this Senate seat.

In Florida, a large state where it is very expensive to run a statewide campaign, a candidate with a favorable image and high name recognition, like Rubio, is the only way to break from the top of the ticket, said Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist and adviser to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell.

Read Also: Who Is More Educated Democrats Or Republicans

For These Republicans 2024 Is Just Around The Corner

Mike Pence. Mike Pompeo. Rick Scott. They share big ambitions, but one name hovers above them all

President Biden told reporters last month that his plan is to run for re-election, despite already being the oldest person to have won a presidential election. So, for now at least, the question of who will lead the Democratic ticket in 2024 has been put to rest.

On the Republican side, however, certainty is in short supply. Its beyond early to be talking about the next presidential election but thats only if you arent planning to run. Some Republican candidates have already made trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and others are laying plans to go, in what often represents the first step in building out a campaign operation in those early-voting states.

And on Wednesday, in a conspicuously forward-looking move, former Vice President Mike Pence announced the formation of a new political organization, Advancing American Freedom, whose advisory board is stacked high with former Trump administration officials and allies. The news came on the same day Simon & Schuster announced that it would publish Pences autobiography as part of a two-book deal.

The G.O.P. is badly fractured, trying to hold together a dominant base of those loyal to former President Donald Trump and a stubborn minority of pro-decorum, anti-Trump conservatives. Anyone looking to grab the Republican mantle will have to find some way of satisfying both camps and maybe even expanding upon them.

Former Ambassador To The United Nations Nikki Haley

Haley has changed her tone when it comes to Trump. After saying he let us down and lost any sort of political viability he was going to have following Jan. 6, Haley is, at least publicly, a fan again. During her remarks at the Iowa Republican Party dinner on June 24, Haley praised Trump and told a story about him asking if he should call Kim Jong Un little rocket man during his speech at the U.N. Haley said she cautioned him to treat the audience like church instead of a rally, but he went ahead and used the term.

Haley even sounded kind of Trumpian during her speech, telling Republicans they were too nice. We have to be tough about how we fight, she said. We keep getting steamrolled and then whine and complain about it. The days of being nice should be over.

She also didnt shy away from her gender, opening the speech by saying, America needs more strong conservative women leaders and less of Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris, and praising female Iowa Republicans like U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst and Gov. Kim Reynolds. I wear heels, Haley said. Its not for a fashion statement. I use it for kicking. But I always kick with a smile.

Also Check: What Color Ties Do Republicans Wear

Sen Tim Scott Of South Carolina

Scott showed up in the February Morning Consult/Politico poll as one of a handful of other 2024 presidential candidates respondents would vote for in 2024.

When Scott, 55, spoke at last summers Republican National Convention, he mentioned fairness and equality, and listed the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor among the events that had tested the nation. It was an optimistic speech, and it sounded unlike anything we were used to hearing from the Trump-era Republican Party.

Scott was first elected to the Charleston County Council in 1995. He then served in the South Carolina House of Representatives before being elected to the U.S. House for two terms. In 2013, he became the first African American since Reconstruction to represent a southern state in the U.S. Senate. He is unmarried.

Which Republicans Will Take On Trump In 2020

2020 Election – 5 Republicans Who Might Run For President (Why Donald Trump will be the GOP Nominee)

As the 2020 election cycle begins, some centrist Republicans are already said to be considering challenging the president as the GOP works to stifle any rebellion

As more and more Democrats line up for a chance to take on Donald Trump in 2020 the president has predictably responded by doling out insults and nicknames. But while Democrats remain the object of Trumps ire for now, he may soon have to worry about Republican primary challengers as well.

Since Trumps 2016 run, centrist Republicans have watched aghast as the president transformed the party and its supporters to fit his own style and beliefs. Many of his former opponents within the Republican party fell in line, but others have not.

As the 2020 election cycle begins, some Republicans may now seek to challenge Trump in the presidential primaries.

One potential insurgent Republican candidate is former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld, who was the vice-presidential nominee on Gary Johnsons Libertarian party ticket in 2016.

Last week, the Associated Press reported that Weld had changed his party registration from Libertarian back to Republican. In late January, he told the New Hampshire television station WMUR that he would not say anything regarding whether he was running or not until he gave a speech in the state home to the first primary in the nation on 15 February.

If he enters the race and does so in his old party he will be the first rebel Republican to challenge Trump.

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Republican Hopefuls Will Need To Lay The Groundwork For Potential Campaigns Of Their Own Without Alienating The President And His Supporters

WASHINGTONPresident Trumps public and private musings about running again in 2024 are scrambling the calculus for the large field of fellow Republicans considering bids.

Most hopefuls have been quick to show deference. But its unclear whether Mr. Trump, who refuses to concede his loss to President-elect Joe Biden, will follow through, and rivals either way will likely seek ways to remain viable. Prospective GOP candidates dont want to risk alienating Mr. Trumps base by appearing to push him aside, but they also dont want to be left unprepared if he decides not to run.

Votes By State For Biden And Trump

The following table shows the number of votes Joe Biden and Donald Trump received in each state.

Votes by state for Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential eleection State

There were 21 candidates on the ballot each in Vermont and Colorado. The next largest presidential ballots were Arkansas and Louisiana with 13 candidates each. Twelve states had only three candidates on the ballot.

The following map shows the number of presidential candidates on the ballot in each state.

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Sen Marco Rubio Of Florida

Like Cruz, Rubio would enter the 2024 presidential race with heightened name ID and experience from his 2016 run. One of Rubios biggest challenges, though, could be his fellow Floridians. If DeSantis and fellow Sen. Rick Scott run, there could be just one ticket out of Florida, a Republican strategist said.

Rubio, 49, is married to Jeanette Dousdebes and they have four children. He graduated from the University of Florida and University of Miami School of Law and was speaker of the Florida House of Representatives before running for U.S. Senate in 2010.

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Sen Rick Scott Of Florida

Scott, 68, is a first-term senator whose biggest asset could be his fundraising. During his 2018 campaign, he raised more than $20 million, in addition to $63 million of his own money he chipped in, according to Politico, and hes also chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Scott and his wife, Ann Holland, have two children, and he was previously the governor of Florida.

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Republican Leadership Thus Far Mum On 2024 Preferences

RNC officials have vowed to remain neutral in the future presidential race. They say their focus right now is on the 2022 elections a major item on the retreat agenda as the party tries to regain control of the U.S. House and Senate.

House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and other election officials are attending the retreat. Scott, a Florida senator and potential presidential candidate, heads up the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The weekend series of meetings includes panels and speeches on such topics as improving Republican voter turnout, expanding GOP coalitions, and building a campaign case against Biden, his administration and the Democratic-led Congress.

To Democrats, this weekend’s activities in Palm Beach look a lot like sucking up to Trump. Democratic National Committee spokesman Ammar Moussa likened the would-be presidential candidates to contestants on Trump’s old television show, “The Apprentice.”

“While Republicans are hobnobbing with their special interest donors, President Biden and Democrats are delivering for everyday Americans, putting vaccines in arms, money in pockets, and bringing normalcy back,” he said.

Actions While In Office

President Trump advocated repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act . The Republican-controlled House passed the American Health Care Act in May 2017, handing it to the Senate, which decided to write its own version of the bill rather than voting on the AHCA. The Senate bill, called the “Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017” , failed on a vote of 45â55 in the Senate during July 2017. Other variations also failed to gather the required support, facing unanimous Democratic Party opposition and some Republican opposition. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the bills would increase the number of uninsured by over 20 million persons, while reducing the budget deficit marginally.

Actions to hinder implementation of ACA

President Trump continued Republican attacks on the ACA while in office, including steps such as:

Ending cost-sharing reduction payments

President Trump’s argument that the CSR payments were a “bailout” for insurance companies and therefore should be stopped, actually results in the government paying more to insurance companies due to increases in the premium tax credit subsidies. Journalist Sarah Kliff therefore described Trump’s argument as “completely incoherent.”

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Trump Remains The Center Of Attention

So much of the Republican Party’s future revolves around Trump and whether he will run again in 2024 and whether his campaigning for conservative allies in 2022 congressional and state elections will split the party.

The former president is even hosting one of the events at this weekend’s retreat, a Saturday night dinner at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Other retreat activities will take place at the Four Seasons resort hotel, about four miles south of Mar-a-Lago.

More:Exclusive: Defeated and impeached, Trump still commands the loyalty of the GOP’s voters

Trump, who remains popular with Republican voters despite his election loss to President Joe Biden and the chaos that surrounded it, has repeatedly said it is too early to decide whether he will run again in 2024.

But Trump plans to get involved in the the 2022 races, targeting Republicans who supported impeaching him over the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol or otherwise opposed his efforts to overturn the election.

Trump’s endorsements of favored candidates in Republican primaries threaten to split the Republican Party. His 2022 activity also means it could be years before he announces what he will do in 2024, effectively freezing the Republican presidential race.

Still, some Republicans are doing the kinds of things future presidential candidates do, regardless of whether Trump has announced.

Former President Donald Trump

Who Are Trumps Republican Challengers?

The biggest question mark for Republicans is if Trump will run for president in 2024. He hasnt exactly frozen the field, since Republicans are already positioning themselves to run, but perhaps hes refrigerated it a bit?

Trump is the 800-pound gorilla, said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor. Trump has got command of the organs of the party and is going to have an enormous amount of resources and name ID and the ability to throw these rallies in the fall of 2022. I think that sets him up very well to being pole position for 2024 if he wants.

Trump, 74, is currently bettors top candidate on PredictIt, an online prediction market, and hes also led in several early polls, including a February Morning Consult/Politico poll. The poll found 54% of Republican voters would back Trump if the 2024 primary were held today. Those kinds of numbers would mean game over in a primary, but they also suggest many Republicans are eager for a new face.

During a recent podcast interview, Trump said he would make his decision on whether he will run in the 2024 presidential election sometime later, and after being asked which Republicans he thought represented the future of the party, he listed off some of the politicians youll see later on this list, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

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What Happens If Republicans Win The House

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What Happens If Republicans Win The House

Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress

Trump to decide on 2024 presidential run once Republicans ‘take back the House’

‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.

“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy tweeted on Thursday.

He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had rejected his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.

“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact voted to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.

But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.