Let's talk about the "Fenian brotherhood" theory !! :D
Firstly, in case you don't know about it, please go read the theory that our!Ciel's birth name might be Fenian/Fionn/Finnian by @azuresins. It is incredibly relevant to what I'm about to explain next !
TBH, I don't really care about discovering our!Ciel's birth name. However, I truly enjoy this theory and I think it makes a lot of sense, because I absolutely agree with the idea of Vincent supporting (secretly or not) Irish independence, turning him into a political enemy of Queen Victoria...
...which could be very much why he ended up dead.
This theory comes from a private convo with my friend, @dorkshadows and I'll sum up their thoughts (and some of mine) below the cut !
First of all, while we think Claudia, Vincent's predecessor, may have been a personal enemy of Victoria because of whatever happened when Albert died in 1861, Vincent strikes us more as a political enemy precisely because of Brown's comment in ch108.
After all, if our!Ciel, who just managed to thwart their plans of getting the sulin gas, is "more like his father everyday", then it makes sense that Vincent "got in the way" of some of Victoria & JB's war/political plans too. >_>
Now, about the Fenian Cycle book: it was an important symbol for Irish independence and the Fenian Brotherhood that started in the 19th century before it got dissolved in 1880. To quote Wikipedia:
"The Fenian Brotherhood traced their origins back to 1790s, in the rebellion, seeking an end to British rule in Ireland initially for self-government and then the establishment of an Irish Republic. The rebellion was suppressed, but the principles of the United Irishmen were to have a powerful influence on the course of Irish history."
But how would Vincent even get involved with it and why?
In the theory that OC's name is Fenian/Finnian, @azuresins mentioned that maybe it's all related to Cedric K. Ros having Celtic origins. Since we do have one sketch by Yana of one twin bringing the Fenian Cycle book to the Undertaker (the most likely candidate for Cedric K. Ros)...
...it might indeed be a partial answer.
There is another possibility though, entirely thought by @dorkshadows, which is that Rachel (and Ann) might have been of Irish origins too.
After all, a common stereotype for Irish people in many stories is red hair and it's hard to forget that it was a very distinctive characteristic of Ann, Rachel's sister !
In fact, one of their first interactions is Vincent telling Ann to be proud of that hair, which we were told she inherited from her dad, the twins' maternal grandfather.
So Vincent might have not just been talking about Ann's hair color in that scene, but more specifically about her taking more pride in her Irish origins. Obviously though, Dalles/Durless aren't very Irish names, but it is possible that their original family name got anglicized into a more traditionally English name.
In any case, Vincent met Rachel and Ann after already knowing their father :
So it's possible that Vincent was, as the Watchdog, investigating Lord Durless as a nobleman with Irish lineage and possible ally of the Fenian Brotherhood. After all, to quote this article, "the Fenians in England and the British Empire were a major threat to political stability". Then Vincent met and fell in love with Rachel, thus deciding to support the Brotherhood instead.
I'd add that Vincent supporting such a cause simply makes sense, considering that the Phantomhive family, too, might have been burdened by the Watchdog's duty generations ago, because of their "different" lineage (full theory here). On top of that, if you add the possibility that Cedric/UT also was of Celtic origins (many decades or centuries ago) and that Vincent knew Claudia's death was Victoria's fault, it only makes sense that he'd eventually politically antagonize the Queen (both for his parents' sake and for Rachel's).
@dorkshadows also pointed out that, to this day, we don't know if the twins' maternal grandfather is alive or dead in canon : he was important enough to be mentioned in Red's flashback but has been missing from the narrative ever since. Timeline-wise, he could be dead, especially since we never saw him in the Blue Memory arc (our!Ciel's flasback), but we never know with Yana (look at Claudia being hinted in panels ever since the circus arc and probably being incredibly relevant), so it's worth keeping in mind.
Then, moving on to ch132 we know that, when the twins were born, Rachel is the one who named them.
Coincidentally (read: it's probably not a coincidence xD), ch132 had the cover with Vincent reading the Fenian Cycle book to the twins and it's also the chapter in which Vicar Rathbone casually says that one twin/both twins (it's deliberately ambiguous in Japanese) have a name that is "rare for England" :
Many fans, myself included, thought that "Ciel" was the name being discussed there, but maybe they were actually talking about our!Ciel's celtic birth name ! To quote @azuresins, in that case that'd basically mean that, in that scene above, "Vincent said to an ENGLISH PRIEST [...] that people of Celtic origin deserved freedom, and to be treated better and that it probably was soon to come".
No wonder that Vicar Rathbone would immediately change the topic lmao ! xD
Vicar Rathbone be like
It is also very meaningful that Rachel decided to give the "Fionn/Fenian/Finnian" name to our!Ciel ("the spare"), as if to emphasize that he was free to make his own path in life, as the second son, unburdened by earldom. Choosing such a meaningful name might even be a parallel to Vincent's own situation with Frances as his spare, since both also have names with a meaning relating to victory and freedom.
Another important detail, as @azuresins already explained here, is that Fenian Cycle is also a tale of revenge and that our!Ciel parallels Fionn big deal, making it all even more relevant. And maybe Yana left other hints in her artworks too...
Finally, historically the Fenian Brotherhood officially got dissolved around 1880 (the twins were 5 years old), but it's always possible that, in Kuroverse, Vincent managed to make it thrive secretly as the Watchdog. The Fenian Brotherhood caused several incidents, including after 1880 (they assassinated a British Chief Secretary in 1882), so it wouldn't be impossible that the Queen eventually found out that Vincent didn't properly take care of them, because he was supporting them.
And when she found out? Well, she branded Vincent a political enemy and we know the rest (the household was massacred in 1885 and the killer most likely received help from real!Ciel, more details in the real!Ciel mastermind theory hehe).
The idea that Vincent ultimately became a political enemy of Victoria because he fell in love with Rachel makes their death...
...even more emotional to me, since Rachel probably died trying to protect Vincent. T_T
TL;DR that's the Fenian Brotherhood theory: because they supported an Irish rebellious group that wanted freedom, Vincent & Rachel were branded political enemies of Victoria and she & JB plotted their deaths, which led in happenstance to the RCMT.
(friendly reminder that the twins are 7, when Vincent asked Dee to look after them should he die)
I hope it was clear ! Thanks for reading. :))
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