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#and as a story adaptation I don’t love it but I think dev Patel absolutely slam dunked the role!!
wizard-legs · 6 months
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Yeah free to think about kissing men (just watched the green knight. mostly I liked the part where he ate shrooms and immediately vommed)
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smokeybrandreviews · 3 years
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Red Then Blacked
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I want to talk about Ginger erasure in geek media adaption and how it’s f*cking stupid. I’ve heard a ton of discourse around this subject, usually the general grumbling about a race-swap recast of a red haired comic characters in a big screen adaption with a black actor, and i kind of hate it. Sh*t feels mildly disrespectful and a little bit racist. The common argument i hear is that Gingers deserve visibility, too. That is a valid point. I agree with it in principal. But Gingers are white people. They already have all of the opportunity. I can't turn on my f*cking TV without seeing a bunch of mayonnaise. If you cast a black person in that Ginger spot, you make an opportunity for that black person where one was not. That’s literally one more role for a minority to play, one more opportunity added to the incredibly small amount available for us in greater Hollywood. And this is just me, speaking from a Black perspective, about Black roles. Don’t get me started on Latino or Asian representation in major film productions. Hell, where do i even begin to broach the subject of the laughably barren field for Native actors? Are you kidding me?
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Now, that’s the Negro in me talking, the persecuted minority who exist in the very White America. The system in the US is set up to cater toward wypipo so it stands to reason there are more roles and sh*t FOR wypipo. The vast majority of Hollywood production is for white folks. The first f*cking movie screened in the White House was Birth of a Nation. That sh*t is so white, it’s literally a KKK propaganda film. You don’t get much more White than that. Where i the opportunity for Black people at all? Where are the roles for us to be heroes or legends or myths? They are there, of course, but they’re so rare, you have to squint to see them. I mean, there’s a movie called Gods of Egypt and the two leads are from f*cking Europe. The movie is set in ancient Egypt! Last i checked, Egypt was in Africa. What the f*ck? Problematic implications about casting Europeans as the god of an entire African people, why the f*ck weren’t Black people cast in those roles? Why was it just acceptable that Gerard Butler gets to be Set instead of Chadwick Boseman? Why was no one outraged about this? Because that’s the normal. In a story based on Black myth, white folks get to take the lead and that’s my point. Our opportunities are so sparse, we can’t even be the principals in our own f*cking stories and no one f*cking cares. I’m not shedding any tears when a Black actor gets a shot at a major character, in an almost guaranteed blockbuster film, just because that character was originally pale as death with flaming locks on the comic page. That said, i can definitely understand the frustration but the outrage seems misplaced.
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We, as minorities, need these roles. We don’t have many like them. But i agree that it isn’t fair only Gingers are targeted for the swap. It’s actually incredibly f*cked up that they are so easily replaced. I mean, think about it; How much outrage is there when a Black person replaces a red hair as opposed to a blondy? Seriously, when Zendaya was announced for MJ, that outraged died down in a matter of weeks. Now, i love Mary Jane. She’s one of my favorite characters in all of Marvel. I thought it was a misstep that Zendaya got the role but it worked out. Her Michelle Jones is absolutely adorable and i kind of love her awkward chemistry with Holland. It feels real. When Kiersey Clemons got Iris West, no one cared. I didn’t hear a thing. Halle Bailey is Ariel. Haven’t heard a peep since the initial announcement. Now, try to remember the reaction when Michael B. Jordan got the nod for Johnny Storm. Bro, people are STILL mad about that and the movie, itself, was a whole ass train wreck. But that doesn’t matter because Torch is the Aryan ideal. Blonde haired, blue eyed, and fit as f*ck. Michael B. Jordan is literally the Aryan nightmare. Casting him as The Human Torch, effectively makes that White Male Power Fantasy impossible and cats have not stopped b*tching about it to this day. Even when it works, there is a bunch of caveats. Jurnee Smollet got the Black Canary role. She’s a lighter skinned black women and then they loaded her up with blonde extensions. They gave her what i like to call, “The Beyonce.” Jurnee was just black enough to count toward diversity but not black enough to offend the Eurocentric ideal of beauty. No one complained because she was white enough to placate the mass audience.
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My point with all of this is that the issue isn’t Ginger erasure, it’s that the opportunity for minorities to embody white roles, and roles in general, should be expanded. We should see more Miles Morales’ and Wallace Wests. We should have more Riri Williams’ and Kamla Kahns and America Chavezes and Cindy Moons. Give Idris his shot at Bond and let Michael Spears play Conan. Let Dev Patel have a shot at The Doctor is he wants it and give Jessica Henwick the opportunity to ham it up as The Master. It’s f*cking ridiculous that the only way Black people can be a part of a massive franchise like the MCU is by replacing Ginger people when there are ample opportunities of the not-so-Firebush persuasion, that can be swapped out. In the glib sense, i get it. It’s f*cked up and Ginger erasure is a thing but then, at the same time, if those are the only opportunities being presented to the melanated people in the industry, the shut the f*ck up about it. We need all the visibility we can get. Motherf*ckers don’t even let us have our own sh*t, man. You mad that there aren’t redheads on screen even thought every screen is chock full of the White? For real? Bro, your demographic can be bought in a bottle at Safeway. I can’t wash out my Black.
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jadelotusflower · 4 years
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August 2020 roundup
The end of another month - this year is truly going by at the speed of light. I hope everyone is coping okay - the state borders are still closed here and (for now) covid is under control, so I am grateful for that and feel for those who are not so lucky. 
Writing wise, I’ve not been as productive as I would like, but I did update Against the Dying of the Light, and it was an absolutely mammoth chapter with action/battle scenes which I always find difficult, so was fairly proud of the result.
I haven’t read much fanfic lately, my to-read list is a mile long, but I’ll get to it.
I have been reading more actual books, and finished The History of the Kings of Britain by Geoffrey Monmouth, which I found interesting as an faux-historical and early Arthurian reference, if not particularly enthralling.
I’m about two-thirds of the way through The Sunne in Splendour by Sharon Kay Penman which has long been on my to-read list. I am not as well versed in  the Wars of the Roses period as I am with the Tudor period, but knew this book was rather well regarded (particularly compared to the Gregory novels, which I find frustrating). Of course it’s unapologetically pro-Richard III, but I don’t mind the perspective and at least so far it doesn’t veer to far into canonising the character - the treatment of Elizabeth Woodville is slightly harsh but then I don’t think his dislike is ever painted as anything but classist, and therefore flawed.
I tend not to take a “side” in this period of history - I can understand the argument of both the Lancaster and York factions, and am generally sympathetic to most characters (except Warwick and Clarence). I do find it interesting that very little of the book is from Richard’s pov - instead his characterisation is mostly how he is seen through the (mostly friendly) eyes of others - Anne, Francis Lovell, Edward, etc. But I’m really enjoying this choice and the variance of pov to give a fuller picture of the time and events.
While not writing, I’ve have watched a lot of film/tv - theatres have reopened here and I saw The Personal History of David Copperfield (dir. Armando Iannucci) which I just loved. I’ve not read the book (although it’s on the list) so don’t know how it fares as an adaptation, but found it so enjoyable and highly recommend. It’s undoubtedly a light hearted take on the source material, but there’s still an emotional depth despite (I imagine) a great deal being cut from the novel - particularly the way in which we write (and re-write) our own stories. There’s a particularly good scene near the end (spoilers I guess) between Copperfield and his fiancé Dora, where he writes her into a scene for which she was not present, and she’s the one who tells him to write her out because she “doesn’t fit” and it’s so succinct and restrained yet so cleverly written. I gather this is a significant change from the novel, yet gives Dora more agency in the story than her original role (which was, as I’ve looked up, to get sick and die).
Dev Patel is of course wonderful (and gorgeous) in the title role, backed by a stellar cast - Hugh Laurie, Tilda Swinton, Nikki Amuka-Bird (she is fantastic - I finally got around to watching Avenue 5 and I love her so much), Peter Capaldi - even Gwendoline Christie in a tiny role. Rosalind Eleazar as Agnes is also one to watch.    
I also highly recommend Little Fires Everywhere -  I heard Reese Witherspoon on Jameela Jamil’s podcast a while ago and it was so interesting to hear her discuss the challenges she’s faced as a woman in Hollywood (while acknowledging that others, particularly women of colour, are up against greater prejudice) - taking her career into her own hands, obtaining and producing female-driven content that might otherwise be overlooked. Little Fires Everywhere (adapted from the novel by Celeste Ng) is one such project - produced in equal partnership with Kerry Washington, and both sharing top billing as the show’s leads. What could be yet another story of Rich White Women Problems actually becomes a nuanced take on motherhood, race, class, family, art - with no conciliation that any of the characters have to be “nice”. In fact both Elena (Witherspoon) and Mia (Washington) can be at times downright unlikeable, and you can see both sides of the main conflict - on the primetimer forums there were commentators frustrated that they weren’t sure who they were meant to be “rooting for” but that’s the point - even if the ending is slightly unsatisfying, this is a messy story about messy people and there are no right answers.
Both women are incredible but Witherspoon has the flashier role, and is really a tour de force of white female privilege - the microaggressions, the slow unravelling, the obsession with perfection. I don’t want to spoil anything because it’s worth watching without expectations - I will also just give a shout out to Joshua Jackson who is sort of wasted in the husband role, but turnabout’s fair play I guess!
Hollywood. I...find Ryan Murphy projects very hit and miss. I enjoyed this for the most part, it’s obvious Murphy loves old Hollywood, both the glamour and the seedy underbelly, and both are on display here. I will also give him credit for good intentions in diversity, both in race and gender as well as age (both Patti Lupone and Holland Taylor have great roles), but I found the ending somewhat soured the entire thing for me. 
(Spoilers) While I understand that this was an alternate history wish fulfilment, it just felt rather cheap to have this movie sweep the Oscars and then suddenly bam, Hollywood is no longer racist or homophobic. The idea that if only someone had had the guts and taken the chance to make a movie like Meg with a black leading actress, written by a black gay screenwriter who holds hands with his boyfriend at the Oscars, it would break box office records, be almost universally embraced, and sweep the awards (except for the white guy), felt a bit...disingenuous? Of course, yes it would have been great if someone had taken those chances, I just feel it would have been almost more uplifting for the film to be a modest success, prove that such films/talent could be embraced, maybe win an Oscar or two, and set Hollywood down a more inclusive path, rather than immediate fairyland fantasy. For me, there just still needs to be internal consistency in your alternate history, otherwise it doesn’t resonate.
That said, there was a lot to like about the show, the actors were excellent across the board, the costumes were incredible, and there was a lot of interesting/heartbreaking real Hollywood stories (I never knew about Anna May Wong for example). 
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airspeedprime · 4 years
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What are your gernal thoughts on The last Airbender movie? What are some positives and negatives?
General thoughts are that I neither absolutely hate it nor do I super like it. I am very middle of the road on TLA.
My main issue these days with it are that the majority of the fandom will not allow the movie to be discussed. Anyone who even attempts to discuss it is just bombarded with “whAt mOviE??” or “Worst movie ever” style comments.
It is stuff like the ATLA reddit having a line at the end of their description that says “There is no movie” that I just can’t stand. That any other content getting responses like that would have mods deleting stuff for spam and for adding nothing to the discussion, but it is just accepted because it is the movie. 
Myself I think the movie is actually a solid attempt at condensing Book 1 down into a 90 minute movie, Book 1 especially seems so difficult to cut down so much since so much of the Book is solo episodes that are not super plot focused. TLA hits a lot of the main beats, but also does skip over stuff that fans really wanted, but it is always going to be that sort of debate you have to leave out a good amount of stuff, but not too much while still keeping it a reasonable length.
One thing I do like in the movie is that it makes more of an arc out of Aang learning waterbending. I love how Aang holding back his emotions about the loss of his people means he can’t waterbend, and until his emotions flow like water he won’t be able to waterbend. It builds so nicely up to the finale where he finally accepts he is the Avatar and what happened, and we get both Avatar State and waterbending at once. I really liked this arc and it fit for this more serious Aang who is more heavily impacted by the results of his 100 years in ice. I honestly think ATLA itself should have had something resembling this, I think Book 1 should have covered Aang’s thoughts on the loss of his people a bit more and his waterbending should have had a bit more of a story to it.
Flaws are stuff like the actor choice for Zhao and Ozai being baffling in how they portray the characters, Ozai especially you cannot in anyway imagine this guy fighting Aang during the comet.
Sokka really didn’t have many good scenes, I don’t think it is purely a bad acting performance and instead just weak scenes and dialogue that gave the actor nothing to work with.
I actually thought Aang and Katara were reasonably well done in most scenes, again this is where tone comes in. I think so many fans cannot see Avatar in any way other than exactly as the show is, but directly adapting ATLA to live action would make for an off tone for a live action show IMO. 
I actually enjoyed how they did the lore with the Fire Nation not being able to generate their own fire and instead their industry and tech being the key to why they are so strong, that tech makes up for that weakness. But then revealing that Iroh can generate his own fire is so cool, that the “true way” of firebending has this extra meaning in the show, would be interesting to see how they did this going forward. Zuko gradually learning to generate his own fire and then Sozin’s comet being a threat because it straight away gives all firebenders the ability to generate their own fire. It is different and you question why, but I like how it heavily emphasises the fire nations success through their prosperity and advancement. 
Dev Patel as Zuko I thought was quite good, one of the most fitting performances. I really liked the scene where Zuko asks that Earth Kingdom boy what he knows about Prince Zuko, that worked well.
Beyond that the main issue with the movie is the script, a lot of weak dialogue that either is awkward or just gives the actors no hope. I agree with the lack of humour, but as I said I think you do have to slightly alter the tone moving to Live Action and you have to make it more serious and take out some of the comedy.
I would have liked to have seen Book 2 done in the movies, just to see how it handled a stronger and focused plot.
It is one of those things where I am not going to argue with people and overly defend it, but I would more argue with the fandom about just allowing the movie to actually be discussed. 
The “What movie?” and “There is no movie within the walls” stuff is utterly overdone, it has been 10 years, the joke is not funny anymore and so many people are so eager to jump on anything in anyway related to the movie just to be the first one to say “What Movie”.
So yeah, I think the movie is more interesting than people make out, but I would never argue that it is good.
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smokeybrand · 3 years
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Red Then Blacked
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I want to talk about Ginger erasure in geek media adaption and how it’s f*cking stupid. I’ve heard a ton of discourse around this subject, usually the general grumbling about a race-swap recast of a red haired comic characters in a big screen adaption with a black actor, and i kind of hate it. Sh*t feels mildly disrespectful and a little bit racist. The common argument i hear is that Gingers deserve visibility, too. That is a valid point. I agree with it in principal. But Gingers are white people. They already have all of the opportunity. I can't turn on my f*cking TV without seeing a bunch of mayonnaise. If you cast a black person in that Ginger spot, you make an opportunity for that black person where one was not. That’s literally one more role for a minority to play, one more opportunity added to the incredibly small amount available for us in greater Hollywood. And this is just me, speaking from a Black perspective, about Black roles. Don’t get me started on Latino or Asian representation in major film productions. Hell, where do i even begin to broach the subject of the laughably barren field for Native actors? Are you kidding me?
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Now, that’s the Negro in me talking, the persecuted minority who exist in the very White America. The system in the US is set up to cater toward wypipo so it stands to reason there are more roles and sh*t FOR wypipo. The vast majority of Hollywood production is for white folks. The first f*cking movie screened in the White House was Birth of a Nation. That sh*t is so white, it’s literally a KKK propaganda film. You don’t get much more White than that. Where i the opportunity for Black people at all? Where are the roles for us to be heroes or legends or myths? They are there, of course, but they’re so rare, you have to squint to see them. I mean, there’s a movie called Gods of Egypt and the two leads are from f*cking Europe. The movie is set in ancient Egypt! Last i checked, Egypt was in Africa. What the f*ck? Problematic implications about casting Europeans as the god of an entire African people, why the f*ck weren’t Black people cast in those roles? Why was it just acceptable that Gerard Butler gets to be Set instead of Chadwick Boseman? Why was no one outraged about this? Because that’s the normal. In a story based on Black myth, white folks get to take the lead and that’s my point. Our opportunities are so sparse, we can’t even be the principals in our own f*cking stories and no one f*cking cares. I’m not shedding any tears when a Black actor gets a shot at a major character, in an almost guaranteed blockbuster film, just because that character was originally pale as death with flaming locks on the comic page. That said, i can definitely understand the frustration but the outrage seems misplaced.
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We, as minorities, need these roles. We don’t have many like them. But i agree that it isn’t fair only Gingers are targeted for the swap. It’s actually incredibly f*cked up that they are so easily replaced. I mean, think about it; How much outrage is there when a Black person replaces a red hair as opposed to a blondy? Seriously, when Zendaya was announced for MJ, that outraged died down in a matter of weeks. Now, i love Mary Jane. She’s one of my favorite characters in all of Marvel. I thought it was a misstep that Zendaya got the role but it worked out. Her Michelle Jones is absolutely adorable and i kind of love her awkward chemistry with Holland. It feels real. When Kiersey Clemons got Iris West, no one cared. I didn’t hear a thing. Halle Bailey is Ariel. Haven’t heard a peep since the initial announcement. Now, try to remember the reaction when Michael B. Jordan got the nod for Johnny Storm. Bro, people are STILL mad about that and the movie, itself, was a whole ass train wreck. But that doesn’t matter because Torch is the Aryan ideal. Blonde haired, blue eyed, and fit as f*ck. Michael B. Jordan is literally the Aryan nightmare. Casting him as The Human Torch, effectively makes that White Male Power Fantasy impossible and cats have not stopped b*tching about it to this day. Even when it works, there is a bunch of caveats. Jurnee Smollet got the Black Canary role. She’s a lighter skinned black women and then they loaded her up with blonde extensions. They gave her what i like to call, “The Beyonce.” Jurnee was just black enough to count toward diversity but not black enough to offend the Eurocentric ideal of beauty. No one complained because she was white enough to placate the mass audience.
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My point with all of this is that the issue isn’t Ginger erasure, it’s that the opportunity for minorities to embody white roles, and roles in general, should be expanded. We should see more Miles Morales’ and Wallace Wests. We should have more Riri Williams’ and Kamla Kahns and America Chavezes and Cindy Moons. Give Idris his shot at Bond and let Michael Spears play Conan. Let Dev Patel have a shot at The Doctor is he wants it and give Jessica Henwick the opportunity to ham it up as The Master. It’s f*cking ridiculous that the only way Black people can be a part of a massive franchise like the MCU is by replacing Ginger people when there are ample opportunities of the not-so-Firebush persuasion, that can be swapped out. In the glib sense, i get it. It’s f*cked up and Ginger erasure is a thing but then, at the same time, if those are the only opportunities being presented to the melanated people in the industry, the shut the f*ck up about it. We need all the visibility we can get. Motherf*ckers don’t even let us have our own sh*t, man. You mad that there aren’t redheads on screen even thought every screen is chock full of the White? For real? Bro, your demographic can be bought in a bottle at Safeway. I can’t wash out my Black.
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toastyteakettle · 4 years
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Mid-Year Book Freakout Tag 2020
I was tagged by @lettersfromthelighthouse. Thank you, I’m sorry it’s taken me so long to do!
Best book you’ve read so far in 2020:  
It’s a three-way tie between Burn by Patrick Ness, Hamnet by Maggie O’Farrell, and Folk by Zoe Gilbert. All very different but all absolutely engrossing.
Best sequel you’ve read so far in 2020:
Not applicable. I’ve read two books this year that are the first in a series—namely The Cruel Prince by Holly Black and The Tea Dragon Society by Katie O’Neill—but no sequels. The Cruel Prince just didn’t grab me enough, although I might still get to the next book eventually. I really need the other Tea Dragon books though because, wow, tea dragons are just the cutest things! If I can’t have a real one I at least need to read more about them.
New release you haven’t read yet, but want to:
It’s been out for a couple of months now, I think, but Highfire by Eoin Colfer looks like a lot of fun. I’m a big fan of Artemis Fowl so I’m interested to see how Colfer approaches a more adult audience. And, hey, more dragons!
Most anticipated release for the second half of the year:
I’m very intrigued by Susanna’s Clarke’s new novel, Piranesi. The setting sounds wonderful and it seems like it might be more manageable than Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell (which I do want to read but is rather intimidating length-wise).
Generally speaking, I don’t really keep track of new releases though. Is that weird?
Favorite new author (debut or new to you):
I’ll say Zoe Gilbert here. Folk is a wonderful debut novel and I adore how atmospheric her writing is.
Biggest disappointment:
Probably Jeanette Winterson’s Frankisstein. On the surface it seemed like the kind of book I would love. I like Frankenstein, I like retellings, and I’ve liked other things I’ve read by Winterson. In the end though the weirdly fetishistic treatment of the trans main character overshadowed the good points.
Biggest surprise:
This is such a boring answer but Snowflake, AZ by Marcus Sedgwick was a much more contemplative/ideas-based novel than I was expecting. From the summary I was anticipating something quite action-packed.
Book that made you happy:
I’ve already mentioned this book above but I often go back to children’s fiction when I need cheering up and The Tea Dragon Society by Katie O’Neill just left me with a great big smile on my face. It’s such a warm, comforting story, like a blanket in story form.
Newest fictional crush/newest favorite character:
Vivienne from The Cruel Prince by Holly Black was very enjoyable to read about. She didn’t have a massive role but I was far more interested in her than the protagonists.
Albína Horáková, the landlady in Sarah Perry’s Melmoth, was not at all pleasant but I found her oddly fascinating.
Book that made you cry:
The Silence of the Girls by Pat Barker. They were angry tears. Briseis deserved so much better.
Favorite book to film adaptation you saw this year:
The only one I’ve seen is the Stargirl film based on the YA novel by Jerry Spinelli. Wouldn’t call it a favourite really. I loved the book when I was a teenager so I watched it on Disney+ while I was using up my free trial but it was just okay really. A lot of movies deal with the same themes in a more interesting way and, for me, it didn’t quite have the charm of the book.
Very much looking forward to seeing the new Little Women film and The Personal History of David Copperfield though. The latter looks really charming—I do love Dev Patel!
Most beautiful book you’ve bought or received this year so far:
Hamnet again. Just look at that gorgeous illuminated H!
Book you need to read by the end of the year:
I’ve been promising a friend that I’ll read Six of Crows by Leigh Bardugo for ages now so definitely that.
I’m really hoping my ability to focus/concentrate will come back soon though because it’s been absent for a while and having the attention span of a goldfish is making reading really difficult.
Tagging: Anyone who sees this and wants to talk about books!
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reelmatt · 7 years
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89th Academy Awards — Predictions
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This is my fifth year doing Oscar predictions since I started this site, and every subsequent year seems to get harder and harder. Partially because of the nominees but also because I’ve been procrastinating more and more as the years go by. Earlier today I posted two final reviews of Best Picture nominees and am writing this preface to my predictions on a train back from Salem. There’s also several major nominees I didn’t get around to watching including Fences (Best Picture and Denzel Washington for Best Actor) and Lion (Picture and Adapted Screenplay).
But I also write this during a bit of a resurgence for me. After barely watching or reviewing films last year, I tried my best to get back in the habit and have been partially successful (I’m satisfied with the frequency I’ve achieved after it being near zero). Hopefully I can continue this practice the rest of the year so I can share my thoughts with the (admittedly few) who care enough to read my thoughts. And for those who don’t, I did start logging my films on Letterboxd so you can follow my goings on there, if that’s more amenable to you.
I usually take this time to give a recap of how I’ve done in previous years, but I’m running up against my publishing deadline, so I’m simply just going to include links for now to my 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 predictions where you can see for yourself. I’m hoping this year can be more like 2014 where I got 92% correct. This year seems a bit more straightforward with some contentious races, but the others not so much (read: expect a *La La Land* near clean sweep, ugh). Last disclosure, whereas most years I spend weeks researching what the critics and prognosticators think about who will win the trophies, this year that time is only a few hours (because again, I really procrastinated this year). But see below for my personal pick for Most Deserving and who I think is Most Likely. 
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Most Deserving: Arrival Most Likely: La La Land
Why: I’ll take this as my space to say just how much I dislike La La Land. The film was enjoyable enough, getting three stars out of five from me and it is certainly deserving of a few nominations at the least. At 14 nominations in 13 categories (it has two for Best Original Song) it is expected to get close to, or even nail a full clean sweep. Much like when Silver Linings Playbook took the Oscars by force in 2013, I was vehemently against it winning any because I thought it’s praise was vastly overblown. So in a sense, my adverse reaction to La La Land winning any awards tonight is not entirely rational, yet nonetheless is how I feel.
Arrival on the other hand was one of my favorite films of the year, if not my absolute favorite. Because of this, Arrival got the most picks for me in my Most Deserving category, aka my personal favorite. While I will gladly take any and all wins by Arrival, I’m going with general consensus for most awards that La La Land will get lots and lots.
BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Most Deserving: Barry Jenkins Most Likely: Damien Chazelle
BEST ACTOR 
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Most Deserving: Andrew Garfield Most Likely: Denzel Washington
Why: I’m really upset I didn’t get a chance to see Fences before the Oscars this year, mainly because it should be a lock for both of it’s acting nominations. Not having seen it, my most deserving choice has to be Andrew Garfield instead. Casey Affleck is the obvious other contender in this race and it should be a tossup between him and Denzel. While I was a fan of Affleck’s performance and of Manchester by the Sea as a whole, I don’t think it was a performance that locked in a win, so I’m deferring to a few others’ opinion on Washington’s performance.
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Most Deserving: Emma Stone Most Likely: Emma Stone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Most Deserving: Jeff Bridges Most Likely: Mahershala Ali
Why: Moonlight was an excellent film overall, including many wonderful performances. Mahershala Ali is one of the obvious standouts in the film, but he only appears for what seems like a small part of the film, and I don’t think his performance is good enough for the time he appears to get the award. He does seem to be the frontrunner, so he’s my pick for Most Likely. Jeff Bridges is my personal choice mainly because I want to give Hell or High Water some love and the only other nominee I saw was Lucas Hedges who was merely alright.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Most Deserving: Octavia Spencer Most Likely: Viola Davis
Why: Again, I’m sad I didn’t get to see Fences and many seem to agree Davis is a lock for this award. Michelle Williams is the consensus for the runner-up, which I disagree with, again for similar reasons to Mahershala Ali in Moonlight — she only appears in a small portion of the film. Therefore, my personal choice is Octavia Spencer.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
20th Century Women by Mike Mills
Hell or High Water by Taylor Sheridan
La La Land by Damien Chazelle
The Lobster by Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou
Manchester by the Sea by Kenneth Lonergan
Most Deserving: The Lobster Most Likely: Manchester by the Sea
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival by Eric Heisserer
Fences by August Wilson
Hidden Figures by Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
Lion by Luke Davies
Moonlight by Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney
Most Deserving: Arrival Most Likely: Moonlight
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Most Deserving: Moana Most Likely: Zootopia
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Most Deserving: N/A Most Likely: The Salesman
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Most Deserving: O.J.: Made in America Most Likely: O.J.: Made in America
Why: I just finished watching the O.J. documentary (it’s quite a doozy and packs a wallop of a runtime) and it’s the only one I’ve seen this year. It was a great accompaniment to FX’s dramatized version The People vs. O.J. Simpson (also great). In short: I’ve got a review on both coming, and count on it taking home some gold.
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
“Extremis"
“4.1 Miles”
“Joe’s Violin”
“Watani: My Homeland”
“The White Helmets”
Most Deserving: N/A Most Likely: “The White Helmets”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Most Deserving: Jackie Most Likely: La La Land
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Most Deserving: “How Far I’ll Go" Most Likely: “City of Stars"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Most Deserving: La La Land Most Likely: La La Land
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Most Deserving: Star Trek Beyond Most Likely: Star Trek Beyond
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Most Deserving: Arrival Most Likely: La La Land
BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Most Deserving: Arrival Most Likely: La La Land
Why: Just see above in my Best Picture explanation. Hacksaw Ridge would probably take last place here for me with La La Land coming in at fourth place. Any of the remaining three in my opinion are more deserving of the win in this category and will be genuinely excited if that happens — ideally with an Arrival win. But alas, La La Land will probably take this on it’s way to a near or full clean sweep.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Most Deserving: Arrival Most Likely: La La Land
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Most Deserving: Arrival Most Likely: Hacksaw Ridge
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Most Deserving: Arrival Most Likely: Hacksaw Ridge
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Most Deserving: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Most Likely: The Jungle Book
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
“Blind Vaysha"
“Borrowed Time"
“Pear Cider and Cigarettes"
“Pearl"
“Piper"
Most Deserving: N/A Most Likely: “Piper"
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
“Ennemis intérieurs"
“La Femme et le TGV"
“Silent Nights"
“Sing"
“Timecode"
Most Deserving: N/A Most Likely: “La Femme et le TGV"
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