#Rep. Tom Sullivan
A year and a half before he was arrested in the Colorado Springs gay nightclub shooting that left five people dead, Anderson Lee Aldrich allegedly threatened his mother with a homemade bomb, forcing neighbors in surrounding homes to evacuate while the bomb squad and crisis negotiators talked him into surrendering.
Yet despite that scare, there's no public record that prosecutors moved forward with felony kidnapping and menacing charges against Aldrich, or that police or relatives tried to trigger Colorado's "red flag" law that would have allowed authorities to seize the weapons and ammo the man's mother says he had with him.
Gun control advocates say Aldrich's June 2021 threat is an example of a red flag law ignored, with potentially deadly consequences. While it's not clear the law could have prevented Saturday night's attack — such gun seizures can be in effect for as little as 14 days and be extended by a judge in six-month increments — they say it could have at least slowed Aldrich and raised his profile with law enforcement.
"We need heroes beforehand — parents, co-workers, friends who are seeing someone go down this path," said Colorado state Rep. Tom Sullivan, whose son was killed in the Aurora theater shooting and sponsored the state's red flag law passed in 2019. "This should have alerted them, put him on their radar."
But the law that allows guns to be removed from people deemed dangerous to themselves or others has seldom been used in the state, particularly in El Paso County, home to Colorado Springs, where the 22-year-old Aldrich allegedly went into Club Q with a long gun at just before midnight and opened fire before he was subdued by patrons.
An Associated Press analysis found Colorado has one of the lowest rates of red flag usage despite widespread gun ownership and several high-profile mass shootings.
Courts issued 151 gun surrender orders from when the law took effect in April 2019 through 2021, three surrender orders for every 100,000 adults in the state. That's a third of the ratio of orders issued for the 19 states and District of Columbia with surrender laws on their books.
El Paso County appears especially hostile to the law. It joined nearly 2,000 counties nationwide in declaring themselves "Second Amendment Sanctuaries" that protect the constitutional right to bear arms, passing a 2019 resolution that says the red flag law "infringes upon the inalienable rights of law-abiding citizens" by ordering police to "forcibly enter premises and seize a citizen's property with no evidence of a crime."
County Sheriff Bill Elder has said his office would wait for family members to ask a court for surrender orders and not petition for them on its own accord, unless there were "exigent circumstances" and "probable cause" of a crime.
El Paso County, with a population of 730,000, had 13 temporary firearm removals through the end of last year, four of which turned into longer ones of at least six months.
The county sheriff's office declined to answer what happened after Aldrich's arrest last year, including whether anyone asked to have his weapons removed. The press release issued by the sheriff's office at the time said no explosives were found but did not mention anything about whether any weapons were recovered.
Spokesperson Lt. Deborah Mynatt referred further questions about the case to the district attorney's office.
An online court records search did not turn up any formal charges filed against Aldrich in last year's case. And in an update on a story on the bomb threat, The Gazette newspaper of Colorado Springs reported that prosecutors did not pursue any charges in the case and that records were sealed.
The Gazette also reported Sunday that it got a call from Aldrich in August asking that it remove a story about the incident.
"There is absolutely nothing there, the case was dropped, and I'm asking you either remove or update the story," Aldrich said in a voice message to an editor. "The entire case was dismissed."
A spokesperson for the district attorney's office, Howard Black, declined to comment on whether any charges were pursued. He said the shooting investigation will also include a study of the bomb threat.
"There will be no additional information released at this time," Black said. "These are still investigative questions."
AP's study of 19 states and the District of Columbia with red flag laws on their books found they have been used about 15,000 times since 2020, less than 10 times for every 100,000 adults in each state. Experts called that woefully low and hardly enough to make a dent in gun killings.
Just this year, authorities in Highland Park, Illinois, were criticized for not trying to take guns away from the 21-year-old accused of a Fourth of July parade shooting that left seven dead. Police had been alerted about him in 2019 after he threatened to "kill everyone" in his home.
Duke University sociologist Jeffrey Swanson, an expert in red flag laws, said the Colorado Springs case could be yet another missed warning sign.
"This seems like a no brainer, if the mom knew he had guns," he said. "If you removed firearms from the situation, you could have had a different ending to the story."
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Dude when people go through and spam like all my calloway/like us posts it actually makes me so happy because thank you for making me smile like that guys.
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I was wondering how accurate this was so I did some fun googling and yall.
So starting with the fact that police in the USA were formed when Dems had Congress and Senate and the same was true when the first organized police department was founded (in Boston, btw)....
1963. Dems had Senate and Congress.
While this allowed for huge strides in civil rights police brutality still continued to be largely unaddressed.
1966. Dems had Senate and Congress.
To point out further racial oppression James Meredith starts a 270 mile walk from Memphis, TN to Jackson, MI. He's shot by a sniper the second day which causes an influx in support from allies & prominent civil rights members (such as MLK) who fly out and walk in his stead.
Governor Johnson (d) of Mississippi, who ran on a segregationist platform but changed platforms when he saw that Black people were gaining more supporters, promises to protect marchers as they pass through his state. Police then tear gas them as they were setting up tents for the night in Canton, MI (pictured). 15k show up to Jackson. It's the biggest march in MI history and more successful than Meredith had planned.
No bills were introduced that year.
1956-1979 Dems had senate & Congress.
In 1961-69 they even had a governmental trifecta with Congress, Senate, and the presidency and again in 1977-79. The director of the FBI at the time was Republican J. Edgar Hoover. Head of Intelligence was Democrat William Sullivan. Attorney General & democrat Robert F. Kennedy authorized several programs for them such as wire-tapping MLK.
1968. Dems had Senate, Congress, and presidency.
President Lyndon Johnson (Democrat president while Dems had Congress & Senate) signs the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, birthing the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration & granting federal funds to local governments in order to obtain military resources to quell potential riots. A direct response to the protests and riots throughout the 50's & 60's. Protecting police from protesters.
Democrats do this instead of protecting the public from police and their prejudice.
1992. Dems have both Senate and Congress.
After the verdict of the 4 police who beat Rodney King on camera is announced & they are Not indicted the public starts rioting. The national guard, fire department, and several police departments are called in by then democratic mayor Tom Brady. After the riots a separate federal trial is held and finds 2 of the 4 officers guilty. All were fired from LAPD.
The Police Brutality Accountability Act of 1991 is introduced. Only introduced.
1994. House & Senate under dem control.
They pass the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act instead. It's drafted by democrat Joe Biden and sponsored by Texas Rep Brooks (D). It's an infamously harmful bill that results in the prejudiced mass incarceration of minorities, especially Black people. This bill funded police departments instead of holding them accountable aiding their further militarization as well.
2020. Dems have both Congress & Senate.
Which brings us to recent times. Where Democrats have again pretended to support and listen to the public demands to decrease/eliminate police brutality only to turn around and insist protests are the reason they keep funding the police instead of giving us rights.
"See? You're too dangerous to Not have a militarized police force."
As if we aren't protesting because the police are already too dangerous. Like that's not what started all this.
At this point a pattern like this can only be seen as intentional. A planned out excuse for funding police again and again and again instead of Stopping police brutality. Instead of enforcing or creating ACTUAL effective reform or regulations. They just keep throwing money at police departments and saying "hey here are billions of dollars that we want you to use to be less violent racists. It's also to help you be more safe when facing the people who are protesting your racist violence. Also we aren't gonna make sure you actually become less violent or less racist but we definitely hope you don't use this all this money to get worse."
Which has backfired across decades at this point. They keep doing investigations and making committees and for what?
We've done that. We know police are racist. We know they're violent. We know they're only spending enough to say they provide 6 months (if that) of sensitivity training and spending the bulk of that money on militarization gear. So what. We know that.
Now what.
What, after 100+ years could their excuse possibly be for STILL doing the same thing. For STILL not addressing it. For STILL not passing reform despite the MANY opportunities they've had? What could police departments Possibly be doing for them?? What excuse could be good enough?
I'm glad you asked.
There isn't one. There are answers of course. Greed, power, privilege, etc. The list goes on.
But are they good enough for you? They're not for me.
I have to beg on Tumblr just for my rent to get paid or for my kid to have dinner sometimes. The success of Democrats or my "country" doesn't mean shit to me, it does nothing for me. It only does things to me. Success enables police, it increases funding, it makes them More afraid of having their ideas of success taken from them, makes them more protective of their status quo. Their success hurts me. Fuck their success.
What matters is that time and time again Democrats have insisted they'd be there for minorities and then empowered the people oppressing, killing, and suppressing us and our rights.
What matters is that time and time again they've said they're powerless and their supporters insist they just don't have a majority to do anything with or that republicans keep blocking them or-
But passing bills to harm us? That's easy. And they don't Have to keep doing that. They just keep saying they do... To protect police. And they only keep "needing" more protection for police because they refuse to give us any. We continue to express our right to protest and they continue to try intimidating us out of it.
All the rights we have? They didn't give to us. Look at those posts. We fought for them while Democrats were in charge. They didn't give us those, they didn't stand with us. They still don't. They stand with the police as they always have.
August 2022.
For hundreds of years we've dealt with this. How much longer is it gonna be. How many more generations are going to have to put up with this government trying to insist that mediocrity is the best they can do indefinitely?
And if you still refuse to hold Democrats responsible, if you still find yourself compulsively trying to point out all the ways that Republicans are worse please know this: I know.
I know you're going to say "well Democrats are our best shot"
And to that I say if this is our best fucking shot....and they're *gestures vaguely at the post* like that.... Can we agree that it points to a much wider issue. If Democrats are our best shot and they're Only this effective and they're only making the most Minimal effort possible year after year. If we Know that their hands are tied by Republicans at best and at worst theyre fascists benefitting from the exploitation of BIPOC and other marginalized communities....
Can we admit that our systems are broken. That it goes further than Republicans or Democrats being bad. That it's Everything? That even if Democrats were actually perfect that everything would still be wrong and fucked up because the system itself holds them from making any effectual change?
That the checks and balances that the founding fathers put in place to make sure that our politicians are fair and just and give a shit about the people they serve aren't working.
Because if they were why would it take HUNDREDS of years for a community to get one thing. Just stop police brutality. That's all we asked. That's it. Stop hurting everyone who isn't a white cis man. Stop killing us in broad daylight for demanding you give us rights and respect the ones we Already have.
So why are we still starting 2023 with brutality making headlines?
If a government is effective and cares and listens and it's representives Truly represent it's constituents and fight for them and it's not just about profit or greed or winning elections or keeping minorities in line then why are we still here?
Why are we still asking for the same rights as our great-great-great-great grandparents?
If that progress? Is that success?
What the fuck are we doing. Like actually. How do we throw a wrench in this system. What will it take for Democrats and liberals and You to realize that all we are doing is driving the future into the hands of fascism.
What do we do? When do we finally do something?
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U.S. users email your representatives this, and make sure to include your zip code:
I am your constituent. I am strongly in favor of defunding Israel. I want my opinion logged on every single one of these pieces of legislation. It is an atrocity that the USA is sending our taxpayer dollars, weaponry, and other support to Israel in order to aid in the genocide of the Palestinian people. It does not reflect the will of your constituents, and I demand that you correct this by voting for/against the following bills, resolutions, and legislation.
To be frank, I will be basing my vote for you in upcoming elections on this issue. I will be watching closely to see how you vote on issues regarding funding to Israel. I will not vote for you in the next election if you vote to send any money, support, or weaponry to Israel. I will be voting for you if you vote to block money, support, and weaponry to Israel.
This is the current legislation I am for, and the current legislation I am against. I would like your office to record my opinion for each bill, and I would like you to take this into consideration when you vote.
I am FOR the following, and expect you to vote for this and co-sponsor, either now or when matching legislation reaches your office.
H.Res. 786: by Rep. Cori Bush
H.Res. 388 by Rep. Rashida Tlaib
H.R. 3103 by Rep. Betty McCollum
I am against Joe Biden’s proposal to spend billions of dollars on Israel via a package for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the US border. Biden is asking for $100 BILLION for this package and it is only 1 YEAR'S worth of funding. This is ABSOLUTELY unacceptable, and I am against you voting for ANY bill that spends even $1 on Israel. I do not care what else is in the bill. If it gives money to Israel, I am against it.
I am AGAINST the following, and expect you to vote against this and not co-sponsor, either now or when matching legislation reaches your office.
S. 3083 by Sen. Bill Hagerty [R-TN]
S.Res. 417 by Sen. Charles “Chuck” Schumer [D-NY]
H.Res. 797 by Rep. Cory Mills [R-FL7]
S. 3081 by Sen. Steve Daines [R-MT]
H.Res. 796 by Rep. Ernest “Tony” Gonzales [R-TX23]
S.Res. 413 by Sen. Marco Rubio
H.R. 552 by Rep. Lance Gooden
H.R. 5959 by Thomas Tiffany
S. 3081 by Sen. Steve Daines
H.Res. 789 by Rep. Jefferson Van Drew
H.Res. 771 by Rep. Michael McCaul
H.R. 5932 by Rep. David Schweikert
H.Res. 768 by Rep. Michael McCaul
H.Res. 770 by Rep. Zachary (Zach) Nunn
H.Res. 701 by Rep. Bradley “Brad” Schneider
H.Con.Res. 61 by Rep. Janice “Jan” Schakowsky
S. 2587 by Sen. Jon Tester
H.Res. 606 by Rep. Andrew Ogles
S. 2413 by Sen. Robert “Bob” Menendez
S. 2438 by Sen. Christopher Coons
H.R. 4709 by Rep. Josh Gottheimer
S.Con.Res. 14: by Sen. Tom Cotton
H.Con.Res. 57 by Rep. August Pfluger
H.R. 4665 by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart
S. 2265 by Sen. Dan Sullivan
S. 2226 by Sen. John F. “Jack” Reed
H.Res. 581 by Rep. Gregory Steube
S. 2240 by Sen. Christopher Coons
H.R. 4564 by Rep. Claudia Tenney
H.R. 4365 by Rep. Ken Calvert
H.R. 4076 by Rep. Chris Pappas
H.R. 3932 by Rep. Michael Turner
H.R. 3907 by Rep. Lois Frankel
S. 1802 by Sen. Gary Peters
H.R. 3792 by Rep. Joe Wilson
S. 1777 by Sen. Jacky Rosen
H.R. 3393 by Rep. Carlos Gimenez
H.Res. 409 by Rep. Carlos Gimenez
S. 1637 by Sen. Marco Rubio
H.R. 3266 by Rep. Brad Sherman
S. 1504 by Sen. Tom Cotton
H.R. 3099 by Rep. Michael Lawler
S.Res. 188 by Sen. Robert “Bob” Menendez
H.Res. 346 by Rep. Randy Weber
H.R. 2973 by Rep. Cathy Anne McMorris Rodgers
S. 1334: by Sen. Jacky Rosen
S. 1300 by Sen. Benjamin Cardin
H.Res. 311 by Rep. Ann Wagner
H.R. 2670 by Rep. Mike Rogers
H.R. 2531 by Rep. Bradley “Brad” Schneider
S. 1143 by Sen. Jerry Moran
H.R. 1777 by Rep. Joe Wilson
H.R. 1218 by Rep. August Pfluger
H.R. 1102 by Rep. Chip Roy
S. 510 by Sen. Tom Cotton
S. 489 by Sen. Rick Scott
S. 430 by Sen. James Risch
S. 431 by Sen. James Risch
H.R. 987 by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz
H.Res. 92 by Rep. Josh Gottheimer
H.Res. 76 by Rep. Max Miller
H.R. 687 by Rep. Gregory Steube
H.R. 211 by Rep. Gregory Steube
S. 224 by Sen. Tom Cotton
S. 189 by Sen. Marco Rubio
I am against any legislation that allows troops to deploy to the Middle East in support roles for Israel, as proposed by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
I am against Netanyahu’s ground invasion of Gaza, which will inevitably lead to mass killings of Palestinian civilians and escalate violence. If there are any future bills supporting this, you need to vote against them and not co-sponsor.
The U.S. Constitution and the War Powers Act stipulate that only Congress can authorize the president to use military force in a foreign war, except in cases of self-defense. Previous administrations from both parties have ignored this, with unauthorized strikes in places like Syria and Libya. I want you to stand against ANY use of military force that supports Israel or hurts Palestine.
And of course, I am against the usual funding of $3.8 billion PER YEAR to Israel. This 10-year agreement began in 2016. I do not want a renewal in 2026, and in the next election, I will vote for representatives who WILL NOT VOTE TO FUND ISRAEL. I will be keeping track of how you vote now, and I will not vote for you if you decide to fund Israel in any way.
I am a single-issue voter for this. I want you to defund Israel. I do not want a single dollar spent on supporting Israel. I will be paying attention to how you vote in the upcoming weeks and months, and if you vote to fund or provide weapons, troops, or intelligence to Israel, I will NOT vote for you in the next election.
We are paying attention to the budget. We know when you're giving aid to a country committing genocide instead of helping your constituents in the USA. Both myself and tens of thousands of other constituents have spent years saying that we don’t want our hard-earned taxpayer dollars going to Israel. The lack of willingness to fund anything for American citizens, but the quickness with which you take action for Israel is telling. It is unacceptable.
As an elected official, you have the opportunity to listen to the public and stand against genocide. Israel is currently committing war crimes against Palestine. You can stop this by defunding Israel. THOUSANDS of Palestinian people have been killed, 1/3 of them children, in just a couple of days. One child every 15 minutes is being killed. YOU can prevent this by refusing to send additional weapons and funding to Israel.
We are currently spending BILLIONS of dollars EVERY YEAR on Israel. I do not want my money going towards the ethnic cleansing and genocide of Palestinians. Not a dollar more.
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2024 San Diego Padres Roster
Pitchers
#1 Matsui Yūki (Yokohama, Japan)**
#11 Darubisshu Yū (Habikino, Japan)
#32 Stephen Kolek (Shepherd, Texas)
#34 Michael King (Rochester, New York)*
#44 Joe Musgrove (El Cajon, California)
#49 Glenn Otto; Jr. (Tomball, Texas)*
#50 Adrian Morejón (Havana, Cuba)
#58 Wandy Peralta (San Francisco De Macorís, Dominican Republic)*
#59 Tom Cosgrove (Staten Island, New York)
#61 Matt Waldron (Omaha, Nebraska)
#62 Enyel De Los Santos (San Pedro De Macorís, Dom Rep)
#75 Robert Suárez (Ciudad Bolívar, Venezuela)
#76 Jhony Brito (San Felipe De Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic)*
#77 Luis Patiño (Barranquilla, Colombia)*
#84 Dylan Cease (Milton, Georgia)*
Catchers
#12 Luis Campusano (Augusta, Georgia)
#20 Kyle Higashioka (Huntington Beach, California)*
#29 Brett Sullivan (Stockton, California)
Infielders
#2 Xander Bogaerts (San Nicolaas, Aruba)
#5 Eguy Rosario (Juan Baron, Dominican Republic)
#7 Ha-Seong Kim (Bucheon, South Korea)
#9 Jake Cronenworth (St. Clair, Michigan)
#13 Manny Machado (Hialeah, Florida)
#14 Tyler Wade (Murrieta, California)*
#16 Tucupita Marcano (Tucupita, Venezuela)*
Outfielders
#3 Jackson Merrill (Anne Arundel County, Maryland)**
#10 Jurickson Profar (Willemstad, Curaçao)
#23 Fernando Tatís; Jr. (San Pedro De Macorís, Dominican Republic)
#28 José Azócar (Guiria, Venezuela)
Coaches
Manager Mike Shildt (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Bench coach Ryan Barba (Los Angeles, California)
Hitting coach Vic Rodriguez (New York, New York)
Assistant hitting coach Pat O'Sullivan (Clarksville, Tennessee)
Assistant hitting coach Mike McCoy (El Cajon, California)
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla (Calexico, California)
Bullpen coach Ben Fritz (San José, California)
Bullpen catcher Heberto Andrade (Coquivacoa, Venezuela)
Catching coach Brian Esposito (Staten Island, New York)
1B coach David Macias (Montgomery County, Texas)
3B coach Tim Leiper (Whittier, California)
Assistant coach Peter Summerville (Seattle, Washington)
Assistant coach Morgan Burkhart (Hazelwood, Missouri)
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THE FEAR CYCLE from Daniele de Virgilio on Vimeo.
A Film by Matthew Seger & Dexter Brierley (Someday) about artist Nicolas Bruno, a photographer who suffers from a rare disease that causes him to have terrifying hallucinations from sleep paralysis every night. The Fear Cycle documents his process of creating haunting and elaborate self portrait photographs to confront the fears that have plagued him since childhood.
PRODUCTION - UNDERHILL PRODUCTIONS - @underhill.film
Director / DP / Executive Producer - Someday (Matthew Seger & Dexter Brierley) - @someday.bk
Producer - Cameron Cuchulainn - @classicbadjournalism
Line Producer - Doug Smith - @anotherdougsmith
EP - Alex Max - @alexmax
AD - Mitch Allen
Production Coordinator - Charles K. Ross Jr.
Production Coordinator - Hana Ballout
Location PA - Kunga Choephel - @kungaaaaaaaa
Crew Transpo PA - Will Cisco
G&E Driver - Manuel Moreno
Office PA - Justin Germek
PA / BTS - Fred Midgley - @fredmidgley
CAMERA DEPARTMENT
1st AC - James Lamberg - @mellowfocal_
1st AC - Jadzia Erskine - @jadzia_dp
1st AC - Cam Willis - @itscamwillis
Camera Operator - Diorlenny Rodriguez - @diorrlen
Steadicam / Mōvi Wheels - Nick Timmons - @notnicktimmons
BTS Photographer / Camera PA - Kyra Andrews
2nd AC - Dylan Gaffney
LIGHTING
Lead Gaffer - Reed Nisson - @reedreams
Gaffer - Tom Van Scoyoc - @tomvanscoyoc
Electric - Alex Blum - @light.blums
Electric - Graeme Dempsey - @graemeinstantly
Electric - Ronnie Bhardwaj - @ronniebhardwaj
GRIP
Key Grip - Chris Angarone
Rigger - Lou Mastrangelo Jr. / Proteus Solutions
BBG - Jonathan Alvarez - @cuttingteef
Grip - Alex Blum
Grip - Sif Sykes
Grip - Sydney Pensky - @sydneypenskyphoto
Grip - Vuk Lungulov-Klotz - @vuklk
Grip - Colby Smith
Grip - Cory Dahn
SOUND
Lead Production Sound - Jose Villaman / STEMS Group - @josevillaman
Production Sound Mixer - Sacha Zuckerman - @sachazck
ART DEPARTMENT
Art Director / Production Designer - Lucas Godlewski - @lgod.photo
Set Decorator - Celina Arslanian - @celinaarslanian
Prop Master - Jack DeSouza
Set Designer - Tim Mele
Set Dresser - Derek Loehr
Scenic - Emily Frank
LOCATIONS
Location Manager - Sean McNally
Site Rep - Jennifer Scott
TALENT
Artist - Nicolas Bruno
POST - ANCILLARY POST - @ancillarypost
Post Executive Producer - Daniel Boventer
Editor - Armen Harootun - @hharmenhh
Assistant Editor - Michael Friedman - @michaelfriedman765
Color - Connor Bailey - @connorjbailey
Music Composer - Daniele de Virgilio - @daniele_devirgilio
Sound Design - Fabio Petino, Daniele de Virgilio
Violin - Diego Pugliese
Hurdy Gurdy - Paola D'Alessandro
Graphics - Wei-Shen Wang - @weishen78104
Sound Mix - Zak DeVries - @zakdevries
VFX - BOSUN
Creative Director - Tom Le Bon - @tomlebon
Producer - Tom Bogda
SPECIAL THANKS
Zach Sullivan and The Sodium Ranch
Gina Suarez and Adorama Rental Co.
Tyler Scott - @onspotscott
Sands Point Preserve Conservancy
Mutual Hardware
The Bruno Family
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Article: Gay club shooting suspect evaded Colorado’s red flag gun law
Gay club shooting suspect evaded Colorado’s red flag gun law
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Range Media Partners Adds 20 Clients To Roster; Bradley Cooper, Ramy Youssef, Anna Kendrick, Emilia Clarke & Tom Hardy Among Names
EXCLUSIVE: Following the news of its launch and the announcement of its new name, Range Media Partners looks to have made a major splash with its first round of signings to its roster. Sources tell Deadline that the management company has signed 18 clients that include Naomi Ackie, Michael Bay, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Jessie Buckley, Jerrod Carmichael, Emilia Clarke, Bradley Cooper, Johnny Depp, Taron Egerton, Michael Fassbender, Luca Guadagnino, Tom Hardy, Stephan James, Anna Kendrick, Taylor Kitsch, Keira Knightley, Danny McBride/Rough House Pictures, Martin McDonagh, Michael Shannon and Ramy Youssef.
Sources added it is unknown at this time what these clients would be doing with regard to their other reps. Range Media Partners had no comment.
Deadline first revealed plans last month that the upstart management company was being launched by Pete Micelli with CAA agents Dave Bugliari, Michael Cooper, Mick Sullivan and Jack Whigham, UTA agents Mackenzie Condon Roussos, Susie Fox, Chelsea McKinnies and Lucinda Moorhead, and WME lit agent Rich Cook all joining the company. Principal backing is coming from hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen, with Microsoft CMO Mich Matthews-Spradlin and Grubhub founder/CEO Matt Maloney providing additional backing.
There had been whispers for weeks about which clients would be joining Range, and while the number of A-list talent that is joining the roster is impressive, its far from surprising given how long so many of these clients had been with each rep over the years.
Just some Hollywood shop talk. Taylor has followed his agent, Jack Whigham, to a new agency, Range Media Partners. Taylor was most recently represented by CAA.
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Brian Epstein’s Address & Telephone Book
A small leather bound pocket address and telephone book that was owned and used by Brian Epstein. The book dates to 1967 and it consists of 57 pages of addresses and telephone number some of which are typed, some of which are in Epstein’s hand and some which have been added by hand on his behalf. // (click HERE to view more pages from the book)
The book contains a total of 404 entries - a selection of them are listed below:
A
ATV Ltd
ABC Television Ltd
AIR London Ltd.
Tom Arnold Ltd
Neil Aspinall
Artistes Car Hire
Annabels [nightclub]
Alexander’s Restaurant
Ashley Steiner Famous [talent agency]
Al Aronowitz
Atlantic Records
Eric Andersen
Bob Anthony
B
Bryce Hanmer & Co [accounting firm]
Bedford, Okrent & Co
BBC Television Centre
BBC Broadcasting House
Al Brodax
Cilla Black
Mr. & Mrs. Tony Barrow
Mr. & Mrs Don Black
Bryan Barrett
Jack Barclay Ltd [Bentley dealership]
Peter Brown
Mr. & Mrs. B. Bullough
Mr. & Mrs J. Bullough
Miss J. Balmer
Mr. &. Mrs. Ivan Bennett
Eric Burdon
Francisco Bermudez
Lionel Bart
David Bailey
Bag O’Nails
Tony Barlow
Ray Bartell
Rodney Barnes
Bruno One Restaurant
Sid Bernstein
Kenn Brodziak
Leonard Bernstein
Al Bennett
Beverly Hills Hotel
Brian Bedford
Scotty Bower
David Ballman
Bob Bonis
Bill Buist
Arthur Buist
C
Dr. Norman Cowan
Curzon House Club
Crockfords Club
Clermont Club
Cromwellian Club
Paddy Chambers
Radio Caroline
Michael Codron
Cap-Estel Le
Mr. & Mrs. J. Cassen
Columbia Pictures Ltd
Eric Clapton
Capitol Records Mexico
Michael Cooper
Roger Curtis
Neil Christian
Maureen Cleave
Thomas Clyde
Cash Box
CBS Records Ltd
Denny Cordell
William Cavendish
Caprice Restuarant
David Charkham
Capitol Records
Columbia Broadcasting System
Bob Crewe
May Cunnell
Car Hire Co. for Lincoln
Dr. Kenneth Chesky
Capitol Records (Voyle Gilmore)
Irving E. Chezar
Danny Cleary
Bobby Colomby
Bob Casper
Andre Cadet
D
Daily Express
Disc & Music Echo
Decca Records
Bernard Delfont Ltd
Bernard Delfont
Noel Dixon
Jimmy Douglas
Chris Denning
Simon Dee
Rik Dane
Dolly’s [nightclub]
Hunter Davies
Terry Doran
Pat Doncaster
Norrie Drummond
Alan David
John Dunbar
Peter Dalton
Kappy Ditson
Robert Dunlap
Robert L. David
Diana Dors
Ivor Davis
Tom Dawes
Brandon de Wilde
Don Danneman
E
Malcolm Evans
Clive J. Epstein
Mr. & Mrs. H. Epstein
EMI Records Ltd
EMI Studios
Geoffrey Ellis
Etoile Restaurant
Tim Ellis
Terry Eaton
Kenny Everett
John East
Bob Eubanks
Esther Edwards
Ahmet Ertegun
F
Alan Freeman
David Frost
Georgie Fame
Robert Fraser
Andre Fattacini
Dan Farson
Billy Fury
Barry Finch
Marianne Faithfull
Robert Fitzpatrick
Warren Frederikson
John Fisher
Danny Fields
Francis Fiorino
G
Dr. Geoffrey Gray
Hamish Grimes
Derek Grainger
Rik Gunnell
Rik Gunnell Agency Ltd
Derrick Goodman & Co.
Peter Goldman
Christopher Gibbs
David Garrick
Geoffrey Grant
Mick Green
John P. Greenside
Michael Gillet
General Artists Corp.
John Gillespie
Voyle Gilmore
George Greif
Ren Grevatt
Milton Goldman
M. Goldstein
Gary Grove
Henry Grossman
H
Mr. & Mrs. Berrell Hyman
Doreen Hyman
Mr. & Mrs. Basil J. Hyman
Mrs. A. Hyman
Steve Hardy
H. Huntsman & Son Ltd
Simon Hayes
Frankie Howerd
Henry Higgins
Chris Hutchins
Tony Howard
Wendy Hanson
Marty Himmel
Casper Halpern
John Heska
Ricky Heiman
Joe Hunter
Ty Hargrove
Hullabaloo.
Walter Hofer
J
M.A. Jacobs & Son
David Jacobs [lawyer]
Dick James Music Ltd
Mr. & Mrs. D. James
Mick Jagger
Brian Jones
Michael Jeffries
Drummond Jackson
David Jacobs [d.j.]
Brian Joyce
Gerry Justice
K
Gibson Kemp
Johnathan King
Mr. & Mrs Maurice Kinn
Kingsway Recording Studios
Ashley Kozac
Kafetz Camera Ltd.
Reg King
Andrew Koritsas
Ed Kenmore
Walker Kundzicz
John Kurland
Murray Kauffman
L
Larry Lamb
Martin Landau
Kit Lambert
Dick Lester
Mr. & Mrs. Vic Lewis
Tony Lynch
Radio London
Mike Leander
John Lyndon
Bernard Lee
Kenny Lynch
Denny Laine
Lomax Alliance
Ed Leffler
David G. Lowe
Richard W. Lean
Goddard Lieberson
Laurie Records
Liberty Records
London Records
Alan Livingston
M
Melody Maker
Peter Murray
Keith Moon
Mr. & Mrs. G. Martin
Mr. & Mrs. Brian Matthew
Midland Bank Limited
Vyvienne Moynihan
Gerry Marsden
Ian Moody
Michael McGrath
Cathy McGowan
Mr. & Mrs. J. McCartney
Albert Marrion
Robin Maughan
Peter Maddok
Gordon Mills
Brian McEwan
John Mendell Jnr.
Marshall Migatz
Fred Morrow
Chruch McLaine
Vincent Morrone
Jeffrey Martin Co.
Gavin Murrell
Dean Martin
Gordon B. McLendon
Sal Mineo
Scott Manley
Bernard Mavnitte
Verne Miller
N
John Neville
Joanne Newfield
Tommy Nutter
Francisco Neuner
Tatsuji Nagasima
New Musical Express
NEMS Enterprises Ltd
Graham Nash
Nemperor Artists Ltd
Louis Nizer
Bob Nauss
Gene Narmore
O
George H. Ornstein
Olympic Sound Studios
A. L. Oldham
Myles Osternak
Roy Onsborg
P
Col. Tom Parker
Jerry Pam
Plaza Hotel
PAN AM. rep
Bob Perlman
Allen Pohju
Robert H. Prech
John Pritchard
Prince Of Wales Theatre
Don Paul
Sean Phillips
Jon Pertwee
Ricki Pipe
Dr. D. A. Pond
David Puttnam
David Puttnam Associates
Tom Parr
Harry Pinsker
Kenneth Partridge
Larry Parnes
Priory Nursing Home
Viv Prince
Steve Paul
R
Radnor Arms [pub]
Leo Rost
Keith Richard
Record Mirror
Dolly Robertson-Ward
Charles Ross
Rules Restuarant
Marian Rainford
Bobby Roberts
Bill Rosado
S
Vic Singh
Speakeasy [club]
Simon and Marijke
Simon Shops
Judith Symons
Keith Skeel
Tony Sharman
Simon Scott
Barrie Summers
John Singleton
Squarciafichi
Don Short
Dr. Walter Strach
Walter Shenson
John Sandoe Ltd
Bobby Shafto
Harry South
Brian Sommerville
Robert Stigwood
David Shaw
Chris Stamp
Aaron Schroeder
Stephen, Jacques & Stephen [law firm]
Leo Sullivan
Gene Schwann
Herb Schlosser
Gary Smith
Jim Stewart [co-founder, Stax Records]
John Simon
Jerry N. Schatzberg
Lex Taylor
Robert Shoot
Lauren Stanton
St. Regis Hotel
Eric Spiros
Howard Soloman
T
Taft Limousine Corp
[Sidney] Traxler (lawyer)
T.W.A. Ken S. Fletcher [director, public relations, TWA]
Derek & Joan Taylor
T.W.A. (Victor Page)
Martin Tempest
Evelyn Taylor
Twickenham Studios
Kenneth Tynan
Alistair Taylor
F. T. Turner & Son Ltd.
R. S. Taylor
Michael Taylor
George Tempest
Norm Talbott
U
United Artists Corp Ltd
U.P.I.
V
Klaus & Christine Voormann
V.I.P. Travel Ltd
W
Mark Warman
Gary Walker
Robert Whitaker
Peter Watkins
Peter Weldon
Mrs. Freda Weldon
Alan Warren
Orson Welles
Sir David Webster
Alan Williams
Dennis Wiley
Terry Wilson
Nathan Weiss
Norman Weiss
Gerry Wexler
Y
Murial Young
Bernice Young
Z
Peter Zorcon
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Hi Rupert connoisseurs! Do you know who his agent is and if he/she has a lot of high profile clients? I’m wondering how high a priority our boy is. I am dying to see more of him!
Rupes is repped by Creative Artists Agency (CAA) and his agents include:
Andrea Weintraub ( Riverdale’s Camila Mendes, Sabrina’s Kiernan Shipka, You’s Penn Badgley, Stranger Things’ Maya Hawke, Darren Criss, Alexis Bledel)Barry BurenBrian BooneDana HarrisJon Teiber (Taylor Kitsch)Mick Sullivan ( Anne Hathaway, Sean Penn, Tom Hardy)
But we will definitely see a lot more of Rupert in 2020. Remember he has 4 movies coming out in the upcoming year and another episode of Dream Corp, LLC.
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Childish Gambino - This is America from Hiro Murai on Vimeo.
dir Hiro Murai
producer Jason Cole
dop Larkin Seiple
edit Ernie Gilbert
production designer Jason Kisvarday
choreographer Sherrie Silver
creative producers Fam Rothstein, Ibra Ake
executive producers Danielle Hinde & Jason Cole
Video Commissioner Camille Yorrick
Cast:
Childish Gambino
SZA
Dancers:
Sherrie Silver
Devin Penn
Rhyan Hill
Trinity Penn
Will Simmons
Guitar Man:
Calvin Winbush
Choir:
Ashantae Seaborne
Angela Perkins
Cheri Hodge
Olabisi Kovabel
O’Nella Savizon
Chris Carr
Eric Lyn
Justin Titus
Nic Hodges
Motown Maurice
casting Michael Beaudry
1st AD Craig Eisenberg
2nd AD Gail Shand
production manager Bret Rea
production coordinator Natasha Cargill
staff production manager Laney Camenga
set dresser Ben Voelker
set decorator Gabi Moloney
art director Dave Duarte
props Carli Moloney
sound designer Trevor Gates
colorist Ricky Gausis
steadicam Brian Freesh
loader Erin Olesen
1st AC Matt Sanderson
2nd AC Jonathan Dec
gaffer Matt Ardine
best boy electric Mike Beckman
electric Sam Needham
electric Ashley Pavicic
key grip TJ Tom Johnson
grip Austin Jonson
grip Jimenez Brooks
grip Brooks Johnson
hair stylist Rashida Carbo
HMU assistant Mika Caviola
artist hair stylist Randy Stodghill
artist makeup Sam Paul
makeup Erin Walters
wardrobe stylist Natasha Newman Thomas
artist stylist Dianne Garcia
wardrobe assistant Margaux Solano
special effects Rudy Perez
armorer Clay Van Sickle
stunt coordinator Ryan Sturz
stunts Dar Perez
sunts Steve Shriver
stunts Chris Chanel
stunt double bagman Jerry Adams
location manager Casey Sullivan
site rep Sergio Perez
playback Dan Wally
VTR Byron Echeverria
production company Doomsday Ent
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“This is the sound of speed-shooting hillbillies discovering the secrets of life in the sewers below the Peace Eye bookstore. Loose, psych-out, folkish stumble...”
ESP reissue reviews by either JIMMY JOHNSON or BYRON COLEY
FORCED EXPOSURE MAIL ORDER LIST #8
June/July 1993
page 17
JIMMY JOHNSON, Proprietor
FORCED EXPOSURE
ESP-DISK’
PATTY WATERS from ESP-Disk’: “In the Spring of 1966, ESP was given a grant by the New York State Council on the Arts, to tour the five colleges in the state with music departments. Artists for this tour included the Sun Ra Arkestra, Burton Greene, Patty Waters, Giuseppi Logan and Ran Blake. Accompanied by an all star backup group from among the participants, Patty's performances resulted in the album, "College Tour", her second recording for ESP-Disk'. The album expands upon the vocal acrobatics that were heard on her first recording, "Sings". "College Tour" won second place for Vocal Recording in Jazz and Pop Magazine in 1970.Patty Waters is internationally recognized as one of the first major avant-garde vocalists. Her ESP-Disk' recordings cemented her reputation as a vocal innovator, and according to liner notes and public opinion, one whose influence extended beyond jazz to Yoko Ono and Diamanda Galas.”
HOLY MODAL ROUNDERS: “The year 1967 proved to be a strong point of the ’60s generation culture and the ever growing New York underground music scene.With the likes of David Peel & the Lower East Side, The Velvet Underground, The Godz, The Fugs, and the Holy Modal Rounders. The music is reflective of the time, and would prove to be the setting of a musical foundation for the group.Steve Weber and Peter Stampfel provided a blithe sendup of musical Americana as they mined this tradition, while introducing outrageous and zany virtuoso turns on acoustic guitar, banjo and violin. Their lyrics and vocals are uniquely their own. Their personalities were profoundly incompatible, like those of Gilbert and Sullivan. They provided the Fugs with their musical underpinnings, and they repeatedly broke up, only to reunite temporarily to record and perform for their loyal following across America. When ESP invited them to record, it was understood that they would take it as far out as they could. Peter Stampfel is outspoken in his dismay over the result, but this view is not shared by Steve Weber.” - Bernard Stollman, owner of ESP-Disk'
R.I.P. TOM RAPP (Pearls Before Swine)
The GODZ Third Testament
SEVENTH SONS’ 4 AM at Frank's T-Shirt via Buzzy Linhart’s bandcamp (really!)
Buzzy Linhart sez about the Raga/4 AM at Frank’s recording (from his bandcamp): “Buzzy Linhart - acoustic guitar (Gibson harp guitar), Serge Katzen - two-side hand drum, James Rock - acoustic guitar , Frank Eventoff - flute (and live sound engineer): “These are the correct credits. This historically significant work has been illegally reissued on CD by small european labels such as ESP Disk, Fallout Records and get back, none have been authorized by any of the Seventh Sons nor their estates and all prior reissues were interrupted mid-jam by the side break. Some reissues called the work "4 AM at Franks", because it is not truly a raga, and all prior version have errors in the credits. Please let this correct the record. Buzzy Linhart has referred to this as "ragoid" and he wants us to keep in mind that all Seventh Sons performances were improvised with no set list and rare breaks. This early recording is a glimpse into what became "Sing Joy" first released on his album "buzzy" (1969, Phillips). The original vinyl "RAGA" and CD reissues include liner notes written by Steve Denaut who was the original bass player for the Seventh Sons when they backed Fred Neil at many gigs in Greenwich Village. Steve went on to be an actor, writer, director educator for stage making immense contributions to the West Coast Rep Theatre.”
Previously on FRR:
...regarding catalogs (which I consistently mispell as “catalogues”): “We never said record catalogues were the equivalent of zines, but we didn’t say they weren’t either. By the mid to late 90’s, when the good zine writ fab was drying up, catalogues served a useful function by stoking consumer desire, which was what the worthy zines did all along. Long before the Aquarius Records, Forced Exposure, Volcanic Tongue, Permanent Records, Goner, Mississippi and similar weekly email lists filled our electronic mail inboxes, we shut ins had the postage paid print catalogue. They were real - and occasionally spectacular.”
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Did Republicans Win Back The House
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/did-republicans-win-back-the-house/
Did Republicans Win Back The House
Republicans Secure Half Of Total Us Senate Seats
How Republicans can win back the White House
WASHINGTON U.S. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska won reelection Wednesday, assuring Republicans of at least 50 seats in the 100-member Senate for the next two years, while leaving control of the chamber uncertain until two runoff elections are held in Georgia in early January.
After slow vote-counting in the northwestern-most state of the U.S. after the November 3 election, news media concluded that Sullivan had an insurmountable lead over Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon who ran as an independent candidate with Democratic support. The contest was called with Sullivan, a conservative, ahead by 20 percentage points.
With Republicans assured of at least half the Senate seats, attention now turns to the two January 5 runoff elections in the southern state of Georgia.
Two conservative Republican lawmakers Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler now hold the two seats, but both failed in separate contests last week to win a majority, forcing them into the runoffs.
Perdue faces Democrat Jon Ossoff, an investigative journalist who narrowly lost a 2017 race for a seat in the House of Representatives before trying to oust Perdue from the Senate seat he has held since 2015.
Loeffler, who was appointed to her Senate seat in early 2020, is facing Raphael Warnock, a progressive Democrat who is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.
An Incoming Class Of History
Several of the newly elected state representatives are making history.;
The Republican Madison Cawthorn, 25, who beat the Democrat Moe Davis to represent North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, will become the youngest member of Congress in modern history.
The Democrat Cori Bush is set to become the first Black congresswoman from Missouri after winning in the state’s 1st Congressional District.
The Democrats Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres will also be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress, after winning in New York’s 17th and 15th districts respectively.
And nine out of the eleven Republicans who have so far unseated incumbent Democrats are women wins that will drastically expand the representation of women and especially of women of color in the House Republican caucus.
Currently, there are just 13 voting female Republican representatives in the House and 11 female Republican incumbents who ran for reelection in 2020.
‘the Squad’ Coasts To Reelection
Three high-profile Democratic members of “the squad” in the House of Representatives held their seats in a comfortable fashion.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will continue to represent New York’s 14th District, defeating the Republican John Cummings by a wide margin, while Rep. Ilhan Omar also ran well ahead of the Republican Lacy Johnson in the race to represent Minnesota’s 5th District.
Rep. Rashida Tlaib also defeated her Republican challenger, David Dudenhoefer, and will continue to represent Michigan’s 13th Congressional District.
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The Midterms Introduced Extreme Divisive Politics
As for the contract’s lasting impact? Most of its ideas and proposals did not pass Congress, or were vetoed by Clinton, and, according to Teske, the ones that did pass were not radical departures and instead relatively minor in scope. But it did put Republicans back in power in Congress, which they’ve largely held onto in the years since.
“The Gingrich approach of extreme right ideas, combined with a scorched-earth personal level of politics in attacking opponentslater seen in Clintons investigations and impeachmenthas also had a major impact on American politics” he says. “It helped bring a much more ‘win at all costs’ mentality, and a divisiveness that persists today.”
Climate Deniers In The 117th Congress
According to new analysis from the Center for American Progress, there are still 139 elected officials in the 117th Congress, including 109 representatives and 30 senators, who refuse to acknowledge the scientific evidence of human-caused climate change. All 139 of these climate-denying elected officials have made recent statements casting doubt on the clear, established scientific consensus that the world is warmingand that human activity is to blame. These same 139 climate-denying members have received more than $61 million in lifetime contributions from the coal, oil, and gas industries.
Recommended Reading: How Many Republicans Caucused In Iowa
Senate Republican Leader Says Narrow Democratic Control Of House And Senate Makes Push Against President Impractical
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday, I think we have a good chance of winning that election next year.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Republican calls for removing President Biden from office over the Afghanistan withdrawal were impractical, urging GOP voters to focus instead on winning back the House and Senate in next years midterm elections.
Look, there isnt going to be an impeachment, but I think we have a good chance of winning that election next year, Mr. McConnell said in remarks in his home state on Wednesday, in which he noted that Democrats could block any push to remove the president.
Why Did House Democrats Underperform Compared To Joe Biden
Reddit
The results of the 2020 elections pose several puzzles, one of which is the gap between Joe Bidens handsome victory in the presidential race and the Democrats disappointing performance in the House of Representatives. Biden enjoyed an edge of 7.1 million votes over President Trump, while the Democrats suffered a loss of 13 seats in the House, reducing their margin from 36 to just 10.
Turnout in the 2018 mid-term election reached its highest level in more than a century. Democrats were fervently opposed to the Trump administration and turned out in droves. Compared to its performance in 2016, the partys total House vote fell by only 2%. Without Donald Trump at the head of the ticket, Republican voters were much less enthusiastic, and the total House vote for Republican candidates fell by nearly 20% from 2016. Democratic candidates received almost 10 million more votes than Republican candidates, a margin of 8.6%, the highest ever for a party that was previously in the minority. It was, in short, a spectacular year for House Democrats.
To understand the difference this Democratic disadvantage can make, compare the 2020 presidential and House results in five critical swing states.
Table 1: Presidential versus House results
Arizona
Also Check: How Did Republicans Do In The Primaries
Rep Emmer On Why He Thinks Republicans Will Win The House
Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee and is leading the GOPs efforts to win control of the House in November. Emmer joins Judy Woodruff from Minneapolis to discuss his reaction to the Republican National Convention so far and why he thinks his party will win a majority in the House this fall.
Republicans Are Watching Their States Back Weed And Theyre Not Sold
Trump to decide on 2024 presidential run once Republicans ‘take back the House’
Montana, South Dakota and Mississippi are among the states that have recently passed legalization referendums.
06/27/2021 07:01 AM EDT
Link Copied
A growing number of Republican senators represent states that have legalized recreational or medical cannabis six approved or expanded marijuana in some form just since November. But without their support in Congress to make up for likely Democratic defectors, weed falls critically short of the 60 votes needed to advance legislation.
Montanas Steve Daines and South Dakotas Mike Rounds, both Republicans, said they dont support comprehensive federal cannabis reform, no matter what voters back home voted for.
I oppose it, said Daines, who is otherwise a lead sponsor of the SAFE Banking Act, which would make it easier for the cannabis industry to access financial services, such as bank accounts and small business loans. The people in Montana decided they want to have it legal in our state, and thats why I support the SAFE Banking Act as well its the right thing to do but I dont support federal legalization.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is vowing to push a far-reaching federal legalization bill, even if President Joe Biden isnt on board. But before he can corner the White House on the issue, Schumer must convince at least 10 Republicans possibly more, since Democrats like Sens. Jon Tester and Jeanne Shaheen are unlikely to back the measure to join his cause.
Also Check: What Do Republicans Stand For Today
The 147 Republicans Who Voted To Overturn Election Results
By Karen Yourish,;Larry Buchanan and Denise LuUpdated January 7, 2021
When a mob of President Trumps supporters stormed the Capitol building on Wednesday, they forced an emergency recess in the Congressional proceedings to officially certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. The disruption came shortly after some Republican lawmakers made the first of a planned series of highly unusual objections, based on spurious allegations of widespread voter fraud, to states election results. The chambers were separately debating an objection to Arizonas results when proceedings were halted and the Capitol was locked down.
When the Senate reconvened at 8 p.m., and the House of Representatives an hour later, the proceedings including the objection debates continued, although some lawmakers who had previously planned to vote with the objectors stood down following the occupation of the Capitol. Plans to challenge a number of states after Arizona were scrapped, as well but one other objection, to Pennsylvanias results, also advanced to a vote. Here are the eight senators and 139 representatives who voted to sustain one or both objections.
Trump Lost Everything For The Republicans
In four years, Trump has led the Republican Party from unified control of Washington to the wilderness.
About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.
If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed and we will deserve it, Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted on May 16, 2016.
The South Carolinians prediction didnt age well at first. Come January 2017, the Republican Party was in the catbird seat. With Trumps upset win over the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, it controlled the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Trump would immediately be able to appoint a Supreme Court justice, too, giving GOP appointees an edge on the high court. Trump seemed to have cleared out the last vestiges of the Democrats New Deal coalition and built a new party that might withstand demographic changes expected to favor liberals. Graham, meanwhile, had a change of heart and became one of Trumps noisiest cheerleaders and closest allies.
Nonetheless, Trump insisted on making the Georgia Senate runoffs about him too. The effect was disastrous. Democrats, especially Black voters, turned out in astonishing numbers; suburban voters continued to reject Trump; and Republican turnout fell short, perhaps in part because the president had spent weeks telling his supporters that the states elections were rigged.
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President Clinton And Hillary Clinton Were Campaign Targets
Teske adds that Republicans had some easy “targets to attack,” from the unpopular, early years of President Bill Clinton, to the Hillary Clinton-led health care proposal to individual corruption cases in Congress.
The overarching goal of the contract involved cutting taxes, reducing the size of government and reducing government regulations, taking aim at Congress, itself, to be more transparent, less corrupt and more open with the public.
“Essentially, it claimed that it would ‘drain the swamp’though they didnt use that term, in terms of what Donald Trump would later articulate,”;Teske;says. “If successful, the contract specified 10 bills they would bring up for votes in the first 100 days, including a balanced budget amendment, term limits, social security reform and others.”
The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee
One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.
Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?
The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.
Don’t Miss: Which Republicans Voted Against The Tax Bill
Republicans Won All 27 House Races Listed As ‘toss
Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as toss-ups in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of the 36 seats the outlet rated as likely Democrat” or “lean Democrat.
The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my information ratings of the five outstanding races following todays developments, Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman said on Twitter. #CA21 – Likely R, #CA25 – Lean R, #IA02 – Lean R , #NJ07 – Likely D, #NY22 – Toss Up.
The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my informal ratings of the five outstanding races following todays developments:#CA21 – Likely R#CA25 – Lean R#IA02 – Lean R #NJ07 – Likely D#NY22 – Toss Up
Dave Wasserman
Before the election, the Cook Political Report listed 229 seats as either solid Democrat, likely Democrat, or lean Democrat to go along with the 26 toss-ups. As of Thursday, the partys best hope is for 226 seats, though the Cook Political Report rates 223 as the most likely outcome.
The results represent a major disappointment for Democrats, who grew increasingly confident of a blue wave leading up to Election Day that would give them an expanded House majority.
This year, Im trying to win it two years in advance by being so substantial in this election that as soon as we start into the next year, people will see our strength, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said one week before Election Day.
Effect Of Republican Retirements
Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. So theres a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020.
That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. Whats more, by announcing their retirements so early, Burr, Toomey and Portman are giving the GOP as much time as possible to recruit potential candidates, shape the field of candidates in a strategic way in the invisible primary and raise more money for the open-seat campaign. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio and that was a popular incumbent running in a blue-wave election year .
Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
Read Also: When Did The Republicans And Democrats Switch Platforms
Gop Women Made Big Gains
While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.
GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats
Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11
District D+22.1
Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.
Gerrymandering Texas Could Help Republicans Take Back The House In 2022
Trump has ‘no plans’ for third party but will help Republicans win back House and Senate in 2022
HOUSTON Fort Bend County was a sleepy suburban outpost of Houston when KP George arrived in the late 1990s, dominated by conservative politics and represented in Congress by Republican Party star Tom DeLay.
Twenty years later, the areas population has more than doubled in size, driven by fast-growing Asian, Latino and Black communities that in 2019 helped elect George an immigrant from southern India as Fort Bends first non-white county judge.
The wave of left-leaning voters that elevated George and other Democrats to local office in recent years may also help the area land a new congressional district. Texas gained two House seats in the 2020 U.S. Census, driven by a population boom in the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan regions, among other parts of the state.
But the Republican-controlled state legislature will be in charge of drawing the new districts, leaving Democrats on the sidelines, worried they may not benefit from the regions changing demographics.
You feel like youre not being counted, George said. My county is benefitting from people like me. But when it comes to the seat at the table , we dont have it.
Redistricting is a byzantine process that plays out behind closed doors, but the stakes are high. New congressional and state legislative lines will remain in place for the next decade, giving the parties that benefit most from redistricting considerable clout in policymaking and upcoming elections.
Read Also: Why Did Republicans Want To Remove President Johnson From Office
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Did Republicans Win Back The House
Republicans Secure Half Of Total Us Senate Seats
How Republicans can win back the White House
WASHINGTON U.S. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska won reelection Wednesday, assuring Republicans of at least 50 seats in the 100-member Senate for the next two years, while leaving control of the chamber uncertain until two runoff elections are held in Georgia in early January.
After slow vote-counting in the northwestern-most state of the U.S. after the November 3 election, news media concluded that Sullivan had an insurmountable lead over Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon who ran as an independent candidate with Democratic support. The contest was called with Sullivan, a conservative, ahead by 20 percentage points.
With Republicans assured of at least half the Senate seats, attention now turns to the two January 5 runoff elections in the southern state of Georgia.
Two conservative Republican lawmakers Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler now hold the two seats, but both failed in separate contests last week to win a majority, forcing them into the runoffs.
Perdue faces Democrat Jon Ossoff, an investigative journalist who narrowly lost a 2017 race for a seat in the House of Representatives before trying to oust Perdue from the Senate seat he has held since 2015.
Loeffler, who was appointed to her Senate seat in early 2020, is facing Raphael Warnock, a progressive Democrat who is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.
An Incoming Class Of History
Several of the newly elected state representatives are making history.;
The Republican Madison Cawthorn, 25, who beat the Democrat Moe Davis to represent North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, will become the youngest member of Congress in modern history.
The Democrat Cori Bush is set to become the first Black congresswoman from Missouri after winning in the state’s 1st Congressional District.
The Democrats Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres will also be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress, after winning in New York’s 17th and 15th districts respectively.
And nine out of the eleven Republicans who have so far unseated incumbent Democrats are women wins that will drastically expand the representation of women and especially of women of color in the House Republican caucus.
Currently, there are just 13 voting female Republican representatives in the House and 11 female Republican incumbents who ran for reelection in 2020.
‘the Squad’ Coasts To Reelection
Three high-profile Democratic members of “the squad” in the House of Representatives held their seats in a comfortable fashion.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will continue to represent New York’s 14th District, defeating the Republican John Cummings by a wide margin, while Rep. Ilhan Omar also ran well ahead of the Republican Lacy Johnson in the race to represent Minnesota’s 5th District.
Rep. Rashida Tlaib also defeated her Republican challenger, David Dudenhoefer, and will continue to represent Michigan’s 13th Congressional District.
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The Midterms Introduced Extreme Divisive Politics
As for the contract’s lasting impact? Most of its ideas and proposals did not pass Congress, or were vetoed by Clinton, and, according to Teske, the ones that did pass were not radical departures and instead relatively minor in scope. But it did put Republicans back in power in Congress, which they’ve largely held onto in the years since.
“The Gingrich approach of extreme right ideas, combined with a scorched-earth personal level of politics in attacking opponentslater seen in Clintons investigations and impeachmenthas also had a major impact on American politics” he says. “It helped bring a much more ‘win at all costs’ mentality, and a divisiveness that persists today.”
Climate Deniers In The 117th Congress
According to new analysis from the Center for American Progress, there are still 139 elected officials in the 117th Congress, including 109 representatives and 30 senators, who refuse to acknowledge the scientific evidence of human-caused climate change. All 139 of these climate-denying elected officials have made recent statements casting doubt on the clear, established scientific consensus that the world is warmingand that human activity is to blame. These same 139 climate-denying members have received more than $61 million in lifetime contributions from the coal, oil, and gas industries.
Recommended Reading: How Many Republicans Caucused In Iowa
Senate Republican Leader Says Narrow Democratic Control Of House And Senate Makes Push Against President Impractical
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday, I think we have a good chance of winning that election next year.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Republican calls for removing President Biden from office over the Afghanistan withdrawal were impractical, urging GOP voters to focus instead on winning back the House and Senate in next years midterm elections.
Look, there isnt going to be an impeachment, but I think we have a good chance of winning that election next year, Mr. McConnell said in remarks in his home state on Wednesday, in which he noted that Democrats could block any push to remove the president.
Why Did House Democrats Underperform Compared To Joe Biden
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The results of the 2020 elections pose several puzzles, one of which is the gap between Joe Bidens handsome victory in the presidential race and the Democrats disappointing performance in the House of Representatives. Biden enjoyed an edge of 7.1 million votes over President Trump, while the Democrats suffered a loss of 13 seats in the House, reducing their margin from 36 to just 10.
Turnout in the 2018 mid-term election reached its highest level in more than a century. Democrats were fervently opposed to the Trump administration and turned out in droves. Compared to its performance in 2016, the partys total House vote fell by only 2%. Without Donald Trump at the head of the ticket, Republican voters were much less enthusiastic, and the total House vote for Republican candidates fell by nearly 20% from 2016. Democratic candidates received almost 10 million more votes than Republican candidates, a margin of 8.6%, the highest ever for a party that was previously in the minority. It was, in short, a spectacular year for House Democrats.
To understand the difference this Democratic disadvantage can make, compare the 2020 presidential and House results in five critical swing states.
Table 1: Presidential versus House results
Also Check: How Did Republicans Do In The Primaries
Rep Emmer On Why He Thinks Republicans Will Win The House
Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee and is leading the GOPs efforts to win control of the House in November. Emmer joins Judy Woodruff from Minneapolis to discuss his reaction to the Republican National Convention so far and why he thinks his party will win a majority in the House this fall.
Republicans Are Watching Their States Back Weed And Theyre Not Sold
Trump to decide on 2024 presidential run once Republicans ‘take back the House’
Montana, South Dakota and Mississippi are among the states that have recently passed legalization referendums.
06/27/2021 07:01 AM EDT
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A growing number of Republican senators represent states that have legalized recreational or medical cannabis six approved or expanded marijuana in some form just since November. But without their support in Congress to make up for likely Democratic defectors, weed falls critically short of the 60 votes needed to advance legislation.
Montanas Steve Daines and South Dakotas Mike Rounds, both Republicans, said they dont support comprehensive federal cannabis reform, no matter what voters back home voted for.
I oppose it, said Daines, who is otherwise a lead sponsor of the SAFE Banking Act, which would make it easier for the cannabis industry to access financial services, such as bank accounts and small business loans. The people in Montana decided they want to have it legal in our state, and thats why I support the SAFE Banking Act as well its the right thing to do but I dont support federal legalization.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is vowing to push a far-reaching federal legalization bill, even if President Joe Biden isnt on board. But before he can corner the White House on the issue, Schumer must convince at least 10 Republicans possibly more, since Democrats like Sens. Jon Tester and Jeanne Shaheen are unlikely to back the measure to join his cause.
Also Check: What Do Republicans Stand For Today
The 147 Republicans Who Voted To Overturn Election Results
By Karen Yourish,;Larry Buchanan and Denise LuUpdated January 7, 2021
When a mob of President Trumps supporters stormed the Capitol building on Wednesday, they forced an emergency recess in the Congressional proceedings to officially certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. The disruption came shortly after some Republican lawmakers made the first of a planned series of highly unusual objections, based on spurious allegations of widespread voter fraud, to states election results. The chambers were separately debating an objection to Arizonas results when proceedings were halted and the Capitol was locked down.
When the Senate reconvened at 8 p.m., and the House of Representatives an hour later, the proceedings including the objection debates continued, although some lawmakers who had previously planned to vote with the objectors stood down following the occupation of the Capitol. Plans to challenge a number of states after Arizona were scrapped, as well but one other objection, to Pennsylvanias results, also advanced to a vote. Here are the eight senators and 139 representatives who voted to sustain one or both objections.
Trump Lost Everything For The Republicans
In four years, Trump has led the Republican Party from unified control of Washington to the wilderness.
About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.
If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed and we will deserve it, Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted on May 16, 2016.
The South Carolinians prediction didnt age well at first. Come January 2017, the Republican Party was in the catbird seat. With Trumps upset win over the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, it controlled the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Trump would immediately be able to appoint a Supreme Court justice, too, giving GOP appointees an edge on the high court. Trump seemed to have cleared out the last vestiges of the Democrats New Deal coalition and built a new party that might withstand demographic changes expected to favor liberals. Graham, meanwhile, had a change of heart and became one of Trumps noisiest cheerleaders and closest allies.
Nonetheless, Trump insisted on making the Georgia Senate runoffs about him too. The effect was disastrous. Democrats, especially Black voters, turned out in astonishing numbers; suburban voters continued to reject Trump; and Republican turnout fell short, perhaps in part because the president had spent weeks telling his supporters that the states elections were rigged.
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President Clinton And Hillary Clinton Were Campaign Targets
Teske adds that Republicans had some easy “targets to attack,” from the unpopular, early years of President Bill Clinton, to the Hillary Clinton-led health care proposal to individual corruption cases in Congress.
The overarching goal of the contract involved cutting taxes, reducing the size of government and reducing government regulations, taking aim at Congress, itself, to be more transparent, less corrupt and more open with the public.
“Essentially, it claimed that it would ‘drain the swamp’though they didnt use that term, in terms of what Donald Trump would later articulate,”;Teske;says. “If successful, the contract specified 10 bills they would bring up for votes in the first 100 days, including a balanced budget amendment, term limits, social security reform and others.”
The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee
One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.
Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?
The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.
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Republicans Won All 27 House Races Listed As ‘toss
Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as toss-ups in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of the 36 seats the outlet rated as likely Democrat” or “lean Democrat.
The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my information ratings of the five outstanding races following todays developments, Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman said on Twitter. #CA21 – Likely R, #CA25 – Lean R, #IA02 – Lean R , #NJ07 – Likely D, #NY22 – Toss Up.
The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my informal ratings of the five outstanding races following todays developments:#CA21 – Likely R#CA25 – Lean R#IA02 – Lean R #NJ07 – Likely D#NY22 – Toss Up
Dave Wasserman
Before the election, the Cook Political Report listed 229 seats as either solid Democrat, likely Democrat, or lean Democrat to go along with the 26 toss-ups. As of Thursday, the partys best hope is for 226 seats, though the Cook Political Report rates 223 as the most likely outcome.
The results represent a major disappointment for Democrats, who grew increasingly confident of a blue wave leading up to Election Day that would give them an expanded House majority.
This year, Im trying to win it two years in advance by being so substantial in this election that as soon as we start into the next year, people will see our strength, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said one week before Election Day.
Effect Of Republican Retirements
Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. So theres a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020.
That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. Whats more, by announcing their retirements so early, Burr, Toomey and Portman are giving the GOP as much time as possible to recruit potential candidates, shape the field of candidates in a strategic way in the invisible primary and raise more money for the open-seat campaign. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio and that was a popular incumbent running in a blue-wave election year .
Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
Read Also: When Did The Republicans And Democrats Switch Platforms
Gop Women Made Big Gains
While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.
GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats
Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11
District D+22.1
Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.
Gerrymandering Texas Could Help Republicans Take Back The House In 2022
Trump has ‘no plans’ for third party but will help Republicans win back House and Senate in 2022
HOUSTON Fort Bend County was a sleepy suburban outpost of Houston when KP George arrived in the late 1990s, dominated by conservative politics and represented in Congress by Republican Party star Tom DeLay.
Twenty years later, the areas population has more than doubled in size, driven by fast-growing Asian, Latino and Black communities that in 2019 helped elect George an immigrant from southern India as Fort Bends first non-white county judge.
The wave of left-leaning voters that elevated George and other Democrats to local office in recent years may also help the area land a new congressional district. Texas gained two House seats in the 2020 U.S. Census, driven by a population boom in the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan regions, among other parts of the state.
But the Republican-controlled state legislature will be in charge of drawing the new districts, leaving Democrats on the sidelines, worried they may not benefit from the regions changing demographics.
You feel like youre not being counted, George said. My county is benefitting from people like me. But when it comes to the seat at the table , we dont have it.
Redistricting is a byzantine process that plays out behind closed doors, but the stakes are high. New congressional and state legislative lines will remain in place for the next decade, giving the parties that benefit most from redistricting considerable clout in policymaking and upcoming elections.
Read Also: Why Did Republicans Want To Remove President Johnson From Office
source https://www.patriotsnet.com/did-republicans-win-back-the-house/
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Childish Gambino - This is America from Hiro Murai on Vimeo.
dir Hiro Murai
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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to our Election Update for Thursday, Nov. 1!
According to all three versions of our forecast — Lite, Classic and Deluxe — as of 9 a.m. Eastern, Republicans have a 6 in 7 chance of holding on to the Senate. Every time a new poll fails to show Democrats gaining ground, the party’s window to turn things around closes a little bit further. Their 15.3 percent chance of flipping the chamber (according to the Classic version of our model) is one of the lowest we’ve seen all cycle.
With numbers like that, the Senate may seem like a foregone conclusion. But that would be the wrong way to approach it. Even if Republicans hold the Senate, the margin by which they do so could be decisive for future elections. In contrast to the 2018 Senate map, which presented Democrats with very few opportunities for gains and exposed tons of vulnerabilities, the 2020 Senate map has several possible openings for Democrats. Republicans picked up seven seats from Democrats in the 2014 elections, including in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. That means Democrats will be able to play offense when those seats are up again in 2020 and may have a decent chance of flipping the chamber — as long as 2018 doesn’t dig them into too deep a hole.
The 2020 Senate battleground
Senators up for re-election in 2020 and their state’s partisan lean*
Incumbent Name Party State Partisan Lean Michael Enzi R Wyoming R+47.4 James Risch R Idaho R+34.9 James Inhofe R Oklahoma R+33.9 Mike Rounds R South Dakota R+30.6 Shelley Moore Capito R West Virginia R+30.5 Lamar Alexander R Tennessee R+28.1 Doug Jones D Alabama R+26.8 Tom Cotton R Arkansas R+24.4 Ben Sasse R Nebraska R+24.0 Pat Roberts R Kansas R+23.3 Mitch McConnell R Kentucky R+23.3 Steve Daines R Montana R+17.7 Bill Cassidy R Louisiana R+17.3 Lindsey Graham R South Carolina R+17.2 John Cornyn R Texas R+16.9 Cindy Hyde-Smith† R Mississippi R+15.4 Dan Sullivan R Alaska R+14.9 David Perdue R Georgia R+11.8 OPEN (Jon Kyl)^ R Arizona R+9.3 Joni Ernst R Iowa R+5.8 Thom Tillis R North Carolina R+5.1 Jeanne Shaheen D New Hampshire R+1.7 Mark Warner D Virginia D+0.1 Gary Peters D Michigan D+1.3 Cory Gardner R Colorado D+1.5 Tina Smith† D Minnesota D+2.1 Susan Collins R Maine D+4.9 Tom Udall D New Mexico D+7.2 Jeff Merkley D Oregon D+8.7 Dick Durbin D Illinois D+13.0 Cory Booker D New Jersey D+13.3 Chris Coons D Delaware D+13.6 Jack Reed D Rhode Island D+25.7 Ed Markey D Massachusetts D+29.4
* Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state or district voted and how the country voted overall. In our new partisan lean formula, 2016 presidential election results are weighted 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results are weighted 25 percent, and results from elections for the state legislature are weighted 25 percent.
† Assuming the incumbent wins a special election in 2018.
^ Sen. Jon Kyl was appointed to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain’s term but has declared he will not run for a full term in 2020.
Sources: U.S. Senate, The New York Times
As you can see in the table above, Democrats have two obvious targets in 2020: Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, the only two Republicans up for re-election in blue states. Four more Republicans sit in states that lean Republican by no more than 12 points,1 and so might be beatable in a favorable election environment or with the right candidates. Of course, it’s not a given that Democrats will add any seats at all to their total in 2020: Sen. Doug Jones faces an uphill fight in deep-red Alabama. What’s more, six more Democratic seats are also plausibly vulnerable.2
Granted, we have no idea what the political climate will be in 2020. (We’re still not sure what will happen five days from now!) But bear in mind that, although Democrats faced a terrible environment in 2010, President Barack Obama was comfortably re-elected just two years later, so even if Democrats prove to have a strong 2018, that doesn’t mean the GOP can’t turn it around in 2020. And if 2020 is a strong Republican year, Democrats probably have no chance at picking up the Senate no matter what happens in 2018. But let’s assume there’s no red wave in 2020 and that, thanks to the power of incumbency, Democrats are favored to hold all their current seats except Alabama in two years. What can they do in 2018 to make their task in 2020 as easy as possible?
Other than picking up the Senate outright, Democrats’ best bet is to make a net gain of one seat (say, picking up Arizona — where Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema currently has a 3 in 5 chance — while holding on to North Dakota or ousting Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada). That would create a 50-50 tie in the chamber3 — and there’s a 14.6 percent chance that will happen, per our forecast. In that scenario, Democrats would have plenty of paths to a majority in 2020: They could hold Alabama and flip either Colorado or Maine; they could flip both Colorado and Maine while losing Alabama; they could even get away with winning just one of those three states if they also win the vice presidency (and therefore the tiebreaking vote).
But according to the model, there’s a very real chance that the Senate’s balance of power will simply stay the same: 51 Republicans, 49 Democrats. If that happens (our model gives it a 17.7 percent chance as of 9 a.m.), Democrats would need to hold on to Alabama and win both Maine and Colorado — or else pick up a seat in one of the four closest Republican-leaning states.4
But our forecast also gives Republicans a 17.3 percent chance to net one seat and secure a 52-48 majority. In this scenario, maybe Republicans win with Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley in that state (a 2 in 5 chance) in addition to Kevin Cramer in North Dakota, while Democrats win with Sinema in Arizona. That would be a big win for the GOP because it would force Democrats to hold Alabama, win both Maine and Colorado, and pick up a Senate seat in a red state in 2020 to gain a majority. Based on states’ partisan leans,5 their easiest target would be Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, which is 5 points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. But we’re starting to get into scenarios where a relatively neutral political environment in 2020 would be enough for Republicans to easily keep the Senate that year.
Let’s say Republicans net two seats in 2018 — something our model assigns a 13.8 percent chance of happening. (For example, if the GOP holds on to Arizona while picking up North Dakota and Missouri.) Then in 2020 Democrats would need to hold on to all of their current seats (including Alabama) and flip four Republican seats. Their most plausible targets would be Collins, Gardner, Tillis and Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa. Iowa is about as red as North Carolina, so Ernst wouldn’t necessarily be a tougher target than Tillis, but Democrats couldn’t afford to lose even one of those races, so the odds would be stacked against them.
Finally, there’s a roughly 21 percent chance that the dam breaks and Republicans net three or more Senate seats this year. Democrats might lose their grip on seats like Indiana (where former Republican state Rep. Mike Braun has a 2 in 7 chance) or Florida (Gov. Rick Scott also has a 2 in 7 chance) in this scenario. The party would really have its work cut out for it in this case: Democrats would have to win all the seats outlined above plus places like Arizona or Georgia. Arizona may be feasible for Democrats in 2020, since it will likely be an open seat6 in a diversifying state. But that’s true of Arizona this year, too.
This is all speculation, of course. There are lots of moving parts in both 2018 (who will win and where) and 2020 (which incumbents will retire, whether the political environment will improve or worsen for Republicans). But it’s a useful exercise in understanding why Democrats should absolutely be sweating the difference between picking up one seat and losing one. Control of the chamber is at stake in 2018 … and in 2020.
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