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junker-town · 4 years

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Instant grades for every NBA trade deadline move

The Warriors traded D’Angelo Russell to the Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins on Thursday. | Getty Images

From Andrew Wiggins for D’Angelo Russell to the Warriors-76ers’ trade, here are our live grades.

The NBA trade deadline always promises to be one of the season’s most exciting mile markers. That’s particularly the case this season with the Warriors’ dynasty dissolved and a wide open field of championship contenders jockeying to make moves ahead of the stretch run.

We’ll be grading every NBA trade on the deadline as they happen. Let’s get to it.

The big trades

The Warriors and Wolves swap D’Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins and more

Warriors get: Andrew Wiggins, top-three protected 2021 first-round pick, 2021 second-round pick

Timberwolves get: D’Angelo Russell, Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans

The most high-impact deal of the trade deadline saw the Wolves finally land their guy in D’Angelo Russell by trading Andrew Wiggins and a lightly-protected future first pick that could be extremely valuable. Though a steep price to pay, Minnesota had to land the guy Karl-Anthony Towns wanted so badly to play with going into the season.

For Golden State, this trade is a risk with a cushion attached. Wiggins is not a very good player right now, but with a change of scenery, anything’s possible. And Golden State gets insurance by adding what could be a mid-first-round pick. Russell likely wasn’t a long-term fit next to Klay Thompson and Steph Curry anyway.

Read this for deeper analysis on the Wiggins-Russell swap.

Warriors grade: A-

Wolves grade: A-

Rockets go all-in on small ball, Hawks get a center, Wolves get a pick and a young shooter, Nuggets get a first-rounder

The largest NBA trade of the deadline was a four-team, 12-player deal that was completed just past midnight in the early hours of Tuesday. Here’s a look at what each team received:

Houston Rockets get: Robert Covington, Jordan Bell

Atlanta Hawks get: Clint Capela, Nene

Minnesota Timberwolves get: Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Evan Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt, first-round pick from the Brooklyn Nets that was transferred by the Hawks.

Denver Nuggets get: Gerald Green, Noah Vonleh, Keita Bates-Diop, Shabazz Napier, first-round pick from Rockets

We already handed out grades for each team in this trade when it happened. Read Mike Prada for additional analysis of what the move means for the Rockets.

The Heat jump to Eastern Conference contenders by landing Andre Iguodala

The Miami Heat get: Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill

The Memphis Grizzlies get: Justise Winslow, Gorgui Dieng, Dion Waiters

Minnesota Timberwolves get: James Johnson

The Heat were a darkhorse in the Iguodala sweepstakes behind the teams in Los Angeles, but were able to get him without shedding any picks. Winslow could be a great player, but has been injured so often the Heat needed to risk losing what he might become to win right now.

Accounting for the trade that landed them Iguodala in the first place, the Grizzlies were able to parlay a prospect the Warriors already cut, Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill into Justise Winslow and a protected first-round pick, which is an impressive haul for Memphis. The Grizzlies were essentially playing with free money in Iguodala, and could win out big-time if Winslow pans out.

Heat grade: A-

Grizzlies grade: A

The smaller trades

Cavaliers take a chance on Andre Drummond

Cleveland Cavaliers get: Andre Drummond

Detroit Pistons get: John Henson, Brandon Knight, second-round pick

One of the more depressing trades of the day showed how much Drummond’s market has shrunk. To avoid the chances he opts in to his nearly $29 million option next season, Detroit salary-dumped Drummond for a paltry haul. The hope in Cleveland is that a change of scenery next to Kevin Love will help Drummond. But there’s no guarantee that happens, and they could be on the hook for him for another season.

Pistons grade: F

Cavaliers grade: C

76ers acquire shooting from the Warriors

Philadelphia 76ers get: Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III

Golden State Warriors get: 2020 second-round pick (via Dallas), 2021 second-round pick (via Denver), 2022 second-round pick (via Toronto)

Philadelphia was in desperate need of shooting this season. Burks and Robinson fill that need if they can earn a spot in the rotation.

Burks, 28, has quietly had a nice year for the Warriors filling the scoring vacuum left by injuries to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and the free agent departure of Kevin Durant. He goes to Sixers averaging 16.1 points per game while shooting 37.5 percent from three-point range on 4.7 attempts per game. The 6’6 shooting guard will be a free agent after the season. Robinson was averaging 12.9 points per game with Golden State on 40 percent shooting from three coming off 3.5 attempts per game. He gives Philly an athletic, 6’6 wing who can’t be ignored on the perimeter.

The Warriors pick-up three second-rounders for the trade. Those can be legitimate assets for a team that needs to find contributors when Curry and Thompson return, whether they keep the picks or eventually move them for more immediate help.

76ers grade: B+

Warriors grade: A-

Hawks acquire more help at center

Atlanta Hawks get: Dewayne Dedmon, 2020 and 2021 second-round pick

Sacramento Kings get: Jabari Parker and Alex Len

Dedmon signed a three-year, $40 million contract with the Sacramento Kings in the offseason but wanted out of town almost immediately. Before that, he spent the last two seasons in Atlanta becoming a useful rim protector who had made major strides as an outside shooter. The Hawks had salary cap space to burn heading into the summer, and decided to use it on a center to backup Capela and provide additional defensive support. The Kings threw in two second-round picks in the deal.

The Kings get to clear Dedmon’s contract off their books. Parker has a $6.5 million deal for next year and Len is set to become a free agent.

Hawks grade: B+

Kings grade: B

Rockets commit to having no centers

Houston Rockets get: Bruno Caboclo and a second-round pick

Memphis Grizzlies get: Jordan Bell and a second-round pick

Houston acquired Bell in the massive 12-player, four-team trade only to send him out for another wing. The Rockets have no use for centers.

Rockets grade: B+

Grizzlies grade: B

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thesportssoundoff · 7 years

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“A great night of fights with two potentially so-so headliners” UFC Fight Night From Brazil Preview

Joey

October 25th

After a very solid afternoon tilt, the UFC is back on the road and back in international waters with a show from Brazil! The wonderful 2nd home of the UFC has seen quite a fall from grace in recent memory as there is ONE current Brazilian champion after running the sport from 2012 to 2014 and for once, there doesn't seem to be a wealth of options out on the bench ready to step up and hit a home run. Now having said that, this card is VERY good with a collection of established names you're familiar with, newbies with high promise, some under 30 or so fighters who have been honing their crafts on undercards and best of all some absolutely perfect matchmaking to back it all up. It's gonna be worth your time so let's see what a Brazilian Fight Night brings to the table on a very busy Saturday slate of action.

Fights: 12

Debuts: 1 (Marcelo Golm)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 4 (Carlos Felipe OUT, Marcelo Golm IN vs Christian Colombo/Augsto Mendes OUT, Raoni Barcelos IN vs Boston Salmon/Boston Salmon vs Raoni Barcelos CANCELLED/Luan Chagas OUT, Vicente Luque IN vs Niko Price)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 5 (Lyoto Machida, Derek Brunson, John Lineker, Demian Maia, Jim Miller)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Jim Miller, Lyoto Machida, Hacran Dias)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 9 (Colby Covington, Marlon Vera, Rob Font, Pedro Munoz, Jack Hermansson, Thiago Marreta Santos, Niko Price, Antonio Carlos Junior, Elizeu Zaleski)

Stat Monitor for 2017:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 32-29)- Marcelo Golm

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 17-31-1)- Marclo Golm, Vicente Luque

Second Fight (Current number: 23-33)- Jarrod Brooks, Devieson Figuerido

Cage Corrosion (16-9-1)- Lyoto Machida, Hacran Dias

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- So what does Lyoto Machida even have left at this point? Machida's run at 185 lbs has been interesting to say the least. His resume at 205 lbs is tremendous with wins over Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Tito Ortiz, Rich Franklin (forgive me if that was at 185 lbs), Ryan Bader, Randy Couture and Shogun Rua all when those meant a whole hell of a lot. His losses are to Shogun Rua, Rampage Jackson and Jon Jones. He made the decision to dwell at 185 lbs in 2014 and thus far the results haven't been as sparkling. Obviously nobody should shun wins over guys like Gegard Mousasi and CB Dollaway but his losses at the weight class have been pretty burtal to bear witness to. He made a valiant effort with a late rally vs Chris Weidman but against Yoel Romero, he was absolutely run over and against Luke Rockhold he was outpowered and overwhelmed. He's approaching 40, coming off a hell of a layoff and his last two fights do little to inspire confidence in him. He is, for all intents and purposes, a guy who seems washed up.

Machida will be the first real case study in how a style like his ages. You always hear that the chin and the reflexes are the first things to go and the power is the last thing. Machida is reliant, almost to an absurd degree on his timing and reflexes. Against Rockhold I can't think of a single thing he could've done differently but he always looked slow vs Yoel Romero. He seemed pensive and once a guy at his age has a tough time pulling the trigger, that's it. That's NOT something that comes back. If you lose the ability to fire, you're done. In his prime, Brunson would've been a style that Machida would crunch up on. A big power so-so cardio wrestler who isn't going to give you a lot to worry about. Machida used to LIVE for those "tough in the first round" types because he'd just pick them off from the outside, wait until they slow down and then blitz and finish them. If Brunson gets him then I have no idea what to say anymore.

2- Who will have the cardio edge in the championship rounds? Machida's never been cardio deficient but he IS going to be 40. Brunson is good early, rougher late and has a style that's not conducive to long fights. A lot of quick hitter explosion on the feet and grinding wrestling late. Might not be a great matchup.

3- The Tough Dad's Division is up in the air but I think I've figured out the key to succeeding as a Tough Dad: Be Available.

From Derek Brunson's fight vs Uriah Hall in September of 2016 to now, this will be his 4th fight. So if you include the Uriah Hall fight, he's fought five times in 13 months. Let's comp that with "the elites" of the division:

September 16 to October 2017 you have Yoel Romero fighting twice, Robert Whittaker fighting a remarkable three times, Jacare twice, Luke Rochold gracing us with his presence ONCE, Michael Bisping also has just ONE appearance and Chris Weidman has fought three times. Your ability as a middleweight and light heavyweight is your availability I suppose. It's why Tim Boetsch survives in MMA, it's why Sam Alvey will forever have a gig and why Uriah Hall never slumps TOO much. Guys who fight often can eliminate wins and losses a lot quicker. There's a skill and strength to being active so kudos to Brunson for figuring this thing out.

4- Is Demian Maia vs Colby Covington the UFC's way of just taking two problems and hoping they cancel each other out? Like I can't see this fight being exciting in any way really.

5- It's somewhat hidden on a very good card BUT gimme that fight with Jim Miller and Francisco Trinaldo. Massaranduba built up a really great 155 lb streak and it came to a screeching halt when Kevin Lee outlasted him after a hectic first and subbed him in the second round. Jim Miller is sort of in the midst of a career renaissance or at the very least, he's taken great strides in re-establishing himself as a total all action psychopath in the cage. Even when he's athletically outmatched, he seems to always make those fights his own.

6- Pedro Munhoz vs Rob Font is SUCH an impressive fight on paper primarily because it returns Font to the scene of his greatest disappointment. Against John Lineker, Font looked SO overwhelmed from the size of the crowd to the volume to the actual opponent. He didn't fight up to the situation and even if you don't beat a guy like John Lineker, there are ways to impress in a loss. He didn't impress and while Lineker and Munhoz are not even on the same universe in terms of styles and reputation, Munoz is a fantastic 135 lber. This is a very cool fight with a shot at redemption for Rob Font.

7- They have different ways of going about it but both Marlon "Chito" Vera and John Lineker share a common trait for success; they are never ever out of a fight. Lineker's power and his march ahead brawler style make him a threat to anybody. Chito Vera's grappling, length and power in his own right makes him a scary fighter for any opponent. He's long, freakishly athletic and fights like he doesn't know any better. This is another great fight at 135 lbs.

8- If you have FS2 then you're in for a Jim Dandy because the FS2 prelim slate is really, really good. From a battle of good MWs with two clashing styles in Antonio Carlos Jr and all action Jack Marshmann to Elizeu Zaleski vs Max Griffin in what should be a "let 'em fly" slugfest to the return of Niko Price vs competent WW Vicente Luque, you got plenty to dig in and digest.

9- Speaking of Zaleski, I feel like his upside is muted by fans sometimes. Why can't this guy fight in the top 10 of the division? His wins are over Keita Nakamura, Omari Akhmedov and Lyman Good. If you follow beyond the main cards, that's really solid competition and his one loss was to Nicholas Dalby in a fight I was SURE he won. He's all action, he has tremendous cardio, fights at an unrelenting pace and MELTS people with his power and his cardio. If his wrestling improves a smidge, he can beat guys in the top 10.

11- Thiago Santos is all action all of the time....but I have questions about his ability to deal with aggressive wrestlers. There are some things that Jack Marshmann does very well and one of those is pressure and rely on his ground and pound. I don't know if that's a good style for Marreta BUT we shall see if he cracks him first.

12- The UFC's problem in the United State is that fight fans want to see their old guys and dont care about new names. In Brazil, the problem is that the old guys keep losing but they have zero young guys to replace them. The youngest Brazilians on this card? 27 year old John Lineker, 27 year old Antonio Carlos Junior and 25 year old Vicente Luque. Good fighters but almost all have ceilings which will limit their growth going forward. Not overly exciting.

Must wins

1- Derek Brunson

Lyoto Machida is in a very specific group of people who will leave the UFC under their own terms. He's got a job quite possibly for life as a former champion who fights at two weight classes of need PLUS he's Brazilian. He'll be here until he decides he doesn't wanna be here. For Derek Brunson, he's approaching 35 and every big fight he's taken he's lost. Now granted, he made a great showing vs Yoel Romero, probably beat Anderson Silva and had Robert Whittaker hurting. Ifs and buts as they say. He's facing a near 40 Lyoto Machida coming off a long layoff. He HAS to win this or else his availability will only guarantee an existence outside the top 10.

2- Colby Covington

I mean....duh? Covington is trying to be the guy who uses social media to build his profile and get people excited about him. That's AWESOME except his social media ramblings are quite weird. He's an acquired taste and the same can go for his more boring meat and potatoes style which is a throwback to the Matt Hughes era of wrestling and ground and pound above all else. He vs Maia is a case of two negatives being asked to produce a positive and if he does that AND if he wins then the sky may be the limit for him.

3- Antonio Carlos Jr

Antonio Carlos Jr is high upside and an amusing fun style of grappling combined with youth and desperation. The UFC needs a new Brazilian face and Shoeface, ironically enough, could just be that guy. He's a name to keep an eye on even if his hype is just desperation. The HW turned LHW turned MW draws a winnable fight in Jack Marshmann; a sophisicated brawler type who feasts on pressure but is hittable and beatable in any facet of the game. He's a sum of his parts kind of guy. Shoeface needs to win this one because it's a stylistic giftwrapped type opponent at home no less.

#MMA #UFC #Brazil #Fight Night #Maia #Covington #Brunson #Machida

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jodyedgarus · 6 years

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The Most Promising Players In The NBA Draft According To My Computer

We usually don’t release our CARMELO NBA projections until after the NBA draft. But this year, in an effort to procrastinate from other modelling-related tasks,9 I finished them a little early. We’ll publish the complete set of CARMELO projections later this month, but with the draft scheduled for Thursday night, I wanted to share the system’s take on the best NCAA prospects.

Our methodology for CARMELO is pretty much the same as last year, with only minor tweaks. It works by identifying statistically comparable players — for instance, John Wall is currently similar to Detroit Pistons Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas and to Deron Williams. For NBA veterans, we use a database of player statistics since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, and for rookies, we use a database of NCAA statistics since 2002, adjusted for pace and opponent strength, as provided to us by ESPN Stats & Information Group. The rookie projections also account for — indeed, heavily emphasize — where in the draft each player was selected. Because the 2018 draft hasn’t taken place yet, we can’t use that variable to evaluate this year’s prospects, so for now I’ve used scouting rankings for both current and historical players.10

As I said, the changes from last year’s model are pretty minor, but one of them is potentially relevant in the context of this year’s draft, which is heavy on big men, including traditional centers such as Arizona’s Deandre Ayton. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has found, it’s become easier in recent seasons for teams to find once-desirable big men on the waiver wire or available for the minimum salary; the former All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who didn’t play at all in the NBA last year, is one perfect example. After evaluating the performance of players on minimum salaries over the past four years, we now use position-based replacement levels,11 which reflect that it takes a little bit more for big men to generate surplus value in the NBA than it does for guards and wings.

One last important warning: This list does not include projections for European players (so no Luka Doncic) or for other players who did not play NCAA basketball for some reason. Also, since Michael Porter Jr. played in only three NCAA games as a result of injury, we don’t project him on the basis of his NCAA statistics.12

At any rate, here goes: The top prospects as projected by CARMELO, non-Doncic, non-Porter edition. Players are ranked by their projected wins above replacement over their first seven NBA seasons:

‘Stats + Scouts’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft

Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.

Player Scout Rank Age on 2/1/19 Pos. WAR THRU 2025 Top Comps 1 Deandre Ayton 1 20.5 C 24.6 Jahlil Okafor, Greg Oden, Anthony Davis 2 Marvin Bagley III 5 19.9 C 19.0 Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love, Derrick Favors 3 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 19.4 C 18.6 Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors, Noah Vonleh 4 Mohamed Bamba 3 20.7 C 15.8 Nerlens Noel, Ben Simmons, Michael Beasley 5 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 19.8 C 14.9 Noah Vonleh, Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors 6 Trae Young 8 20.4 PG 14.3 Dennis Smith Jr., Brandon Knight, Mike Conley 7 Kevin Knox 9 19.5 PF 12.8 Tobias Harris, Thaddeus Young, Julius Randle 8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10 20.6 SG 11.9 DeMar DeRozan, Jamal Murray, Alec Burks 9 Collin Sexton 11 20.1 PG 11.8 Tyus Jones, Dennis Smith Jr., Malik Monk 10 Zhaire Smith 16 19.7 SF 11.5 Malik Beasley, Xavier Henry, Justise Winslow 11 Mikal Bridges 14 22.4 SF 10.8 Jimmy Butler, Nik Stauskas, John Jenkins 12 Kevin Huerter 20 20.4 SG 9.8 Jeremy Lamb, Alec Burks, Gary Harris 13 Miles Bridges 15 20.9 PF 8.6 TJ Warren, Ryan Anderson, Bobby Portis 14 Robert Williams 12 21.3 C 8.3 Cole Aldrich, Bobby Portis, Marreese Speights 15 Lonnie Walker IV 13 20.1 SG 7.2 Jrue Holiday, Austin Rivers, Avery Bradley 16 Troy Brown 18 19.5 SG 7.1 James Young, Archie Goodwin, Austin Rivers 17 Josh Okogie 25 20.4 SG 6.8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams 18 Jerome Robinson 17 21.9 PG 6.2 R.J. Hunter, Dominique Jones, Allen Crabbe 19 Aaron Holiday 22 22.3 PG 5.2 Demetrius Jackson, Reggie Jackson, Jimmer Fredette 20 Jalen Brunson 35 22.4 PG 4.7 John Jenkins, Michael Frazier II, Ty Lawson 21 Donte DiVincenzo 26 22.0 PG 4.5 Willie Warren, Tyler Dorsey, Doron Lamb 22 Gary Trent Jr. 39 20.0 SG 4.3 Rashad Vaughn, James Young, Javaris Crittenton 23 De’Anthony Melton 24 20.7 SG 4.1 Javaris Crittenton, Eric Bledsoe, Zach LaVine 24 Jacob Evans 30 21.6 SF 3.6 Dillon Brooks, Tim Hardaway Jr., Gerald Henderson 25 Grayson Allen 27 23.3 SG 3.6 Jimmer Fredette, Denzel Valentine, Nolan Smith 26 Moritz Wagner 36 21.8 C 3.4 Derrick Brown, Thomas Bryant, Marreese Speights 27 Khyri Thomas 31 22.7 SG 3.2 Jodie Meeks, Wayne Ellington, L.J. Peak 28 Landry Shamet 49 21.9 PG 3.1 Tyler Dorsey, Michael Frazier II, John Jenkins 29 Shake Milton 40 22.3 SG 3.0 Olivier Hanlan, Tyler Harvey, Allen Crabbe 30 Melvin Frazier 32 22.4 SF 2.2 Tony Snell, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Crawford 31 Chimezie Metu 45 21.9 C 2.2 Richaun Holmes, Justin Harper, Drew Gordon 32 Rawle Alkins 48 21.3 SG 2.2 Travis Leslie, Jared Cunningham, Aaron Harrison 33 Keita Bates-Diop 29 23.0 PF 2.0 Justin Harper, Quincy Pondexter, Trevor Booker 34 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 59 21.6 SG 1.9 L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham, Andre Roberson 35 Bruce Brown Jr. 28 22.5 SG 1.9 Jamaal Franklin, Marcus Thornton, Will Barton 36 Malik Newman 47 21.9 SG 1.8 Jordan Crawford, Jared Cunningham, Edmond Sumner 37 Jevon Carter 34 23.4 PG 1.8 Demetri McCamey, Deonte Burton, Ben Uzoh 38 Omari Spellman 43 21.5 PF 1.7 Ben Bentil, Jarell Martin, Samardo Samuels 39 Devonte’ Graham 44 23.9 PG 1.6 Frank Mason III, Joe Young, Yogi Ferrell 40 Tony Carr 54 21.3 PG 1.6 Nick Calathes, Terrico White, Andrew Harrison 41 Ray Spalding 52 21.9 PF 1.6 Hollis Thompson, Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ashley 42 Hamidou Diallo 37 20.5 SG 1.5 Avery Bradley, Josh Selby, Kobi Simmons 43 Chandler Hutchison 33 22.8 SF 1.5 Glen Rice Jr., C.J. Leslie, Jermaine Taylor 44 Vince Edwards 65 22.8 PF 1.3 Solomon Hill, Matt Howard, Jake Layman 45 Trevon Duval 53 20.5 PG 1.2 Cory Joseph, Dejounte Murray, Avery Bradley 46 Allonzo Trier 62 23.0 SG 1.2 Tyler Harvey, James Blackmon Jr., Khalif Wyatt 47 Keenan Evans 72 22.4 PG 1.1 Marcus Denmon, Derrick Marks, Rasheed Sulaimon 48 Bonzie Colson 68 23.1 PF 1.0 Perry Ellis, Branden Dawson, Matt Howard 49 Justin Jackson 41 22.0 PF 1.0 Ben Bentil, Vince Hunter, Tony Mitchell 50 Kevin Hervey 46 22.6 SF 1.0 Draymond Green, C.J. Leslie, Akil Mitchell 51 Brandon McCoy 64 20.6 C 0.7 Greg Smith, Kosta Koufos, Jordan Williams 52 Dakota Mathias 75 23.6 SG 0.7 Dez Wells, Thomas Walkup, Ron Baker 53 Yante Maten 88 22.5 PF 0.7 Brandon Costner, Rick Jackson, Marqus Blakely 54 Gary Clark 57 24.2 PF 0.6 Arsalan Kazemi, Melvin Ejim, Jaron Blossomgame 55 Kostas Antetokounmpo 58 20.7 SF 0.4 Chris Walker, Grant Jerrett, Derrick Jones Jr. 56 Devon Hall 51 23.6 SG 0.4 Jermaine Taylor, Lamar Patterson, MarShon Brooks 57 Alize Johnson 61 22.8 PF 0.4 Malcolm Thomas, Eric Griffin, Khem Birch 58 Kenrich Williams 63 24.2 PF 0.3 Jaron Blossomgame, Michael Gbinije, Kris Joseph 59 DJ Hogg 60 22.4 PF 0.3 DeAndre Daniels, Cameron Moore, J.P. Tokoto 60 Isaac Haas 73 23.3 C 0.3 Dexter Pittman, Justin Hamilton, Trevor Thompson 61 Jarred Vanderbilt 56 19.8 SF 0.3 Grant Jerrett, Jereme Richmond, Ioannis Papapetrou 62 Theo Pinson 70 23.2 SG 0.2 Durrell Summers, Jajuan Johnson, Peter Jok 63 Doral Moore 86 22.0 C 0.2 Dexter Pittman, Chinemelu Elonu, Josh Harrellson 64 Jaylen Barford 92 23.0 SG 0.2 Dwayne Bacon, James Blackmon Jr., Sonny Weems 65 George King 71 25.0 SF 0.1 Elgin Cook, Jamel Artis, Andy Rautins 66 MiKyle McIntosh 81 24.5 PF -0.2 Herb Pope, Taylor Griffin, Robert Dozier

Show more rows

One thing you see is that CARMELO is extremely deferential to the scout rankings — more so than other systems that use similar data, such as Pelton’s system or the Stats & Info system. Both CARMELO and the scouts have Ayton as the No. 1 pick, for example. The order of the big men listed just after Ayton is slightly different — CARMELO prefers Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. to Texas’s Mohamed Bamba — but these differences are minor. As both an empirical and a philosophical matter, we think it’s hard to beat the consensus rankings of NBA scouts and franchises. NBA teams are smart these days: Many of them have projection systems that are at least as sophisticated as CARMELO, plus they have lots of other information that we can’t possibly account for. So if CARMELO disagrees with the consensus of NBA teams, we don’t necessarily want to take CARMELO’s side of the bet.

With that said, there are a few differences. CARMELO puts a lot of emphasis on a player’s age; it’s relevant, for instance, that Jackson is more than a full year younger than fellow freshman Bamba. The counterpoint to this is that older players can sometimes help a team now, even if they have less upside. For instance, Mikal Bridges, who played three seasons at Villanova, is one of just three players who project to have a positive WAR in 2018-19. (The others are Ayton and Bamba; Doncic would probably also qualify if we projected him.) And Duke senior Grayson Allen has the fifth-best projection for 2018-19 even though he rates as just the 25th-best long-term prospect.

We can get a better sense for where CARMELO differs from the scouts by taking the scouting rankings out of the system and running “pure stats” projections instead. (Note that these projections still account for a player’s height, weight, position and age, in addition to his NCAA statistics.) Again, we would not recommend that NBA teams draft players on the basis of the list, but it helps to reveal how CARMELO “thinks”:

‘Pure stats’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft

Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.

Player Scout Rank Age on 2/1/19 Pos. WAR THRU 2025 Top Comps 1 Marvin Bagley III 5 19.9 C 15.0 Anthony Davis, Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love 2 Zhaire Smith 16 19.7 SF 14.2 Justise Winslow, Malik Beasley, Malik Monk 3 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 19.4 C 12.5 Diamond Stone, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marquese Chriss 4 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 19.8 C 12.3 Derrick Favors, Diamond Stone, Greg Oden 5 Deandre Ayton 1 20.5 C 11.6 Jahlil Okafor, Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen 6 Kevin Huerter 20 20.4 SG 11.5 Alec Burks, Jeremy Lamb, Gary Harris 7 Kevin Knox 9 19.5 PF 11.5 James Young, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kevon Looney 8 Trae Young 8 20.4 PG 11.0 Dennis Smith Jr., Mike Conley, Brandon Knight 9 Collin Sexton 11 20.1 PG 11.0 Derrick Rose, De’Aaron Fox, Mike Conley 10 Gary Trent Jr. 39 20.0 SG 10.3 DeMar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, Andrew Wiggins 11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10 20.6 SG 9.8 D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, John Wall 12 Troy Brown 18 19.5 SG 9.6 Rashad Vaughn, James Young, Thaddeus Young 13 Josh Okogie 25 20.4 SG 9.3 Gary Harris, Marcus Smart, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 14 Miles Bridges 15 20.9 PF 7.6 Caleb Swanigan, Ivan Rabb, Gordon Hayward 15 Mohamed Bamba 3 20.7 C 7.3 Meyers Leonard, JJ Hickson, Lauri Markkanen 16 Landry Shamet 49 21.9 PG 7.2 Tyler Dorsey, Luke Kennard, Doron Lamb 17 Lonnie Walker IV 13 20.1 SG 6.9 Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Russell Westbrook 18 Mikal Bridges 14 22.4 SF 6.7 Quincy Acy, Derrick Brown, John Jenkins 19 Jalen Brunson 35 22.4 PG 6.3 Ty Lawson, Demetrius Jackson, John Jenkins 20 De’Anthony Melton 24 20.7 SG 5.9 Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans 21 Robert Williams 12 21.3 C 5.9 Marreese Speights, Caleb Swanigan, Cole Aldrich 22 Moritz Wagner 36 21.8 C 5.5 Jakob Poeltl, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Brown 23 Brandon McCoy 64 20.6 C 5.5 Meyers Leonard, Brook Lopez, Kosta Koufos 24 Rawle Alkins 48 21.3 SG 5.3 Donovan Mitchell, Aaron Harrison, Elliot Williams 25 Donte DiVincenzo 26 22.0 PG 5.3 Tyler Dorsey, Jodie Meeks, Victor Oladipo 26 Trevon Duval 53 20.5 PG 5.2 Avery Bradley, Cory Joseph, Marquis Teague 27 Shake Milton 40 22.3 SG 5.0 Tyler Harvey, Olivier Hanlan, James Anderson 28 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 59 21.6 SG 4.9 L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham, Wayne Ellington 29 Tony Carr 54 21.3 PG 4.9 Darius Morris, Malcolm Lee, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 30 Jerome Robinson 17 21.9 PG 4.8 Armon Johnson, Allen Crabbe, R.J. Hunter 31 Aaron Holiday 22 22.3 PG 4.8 Demetrius Jackson, Stephen Curry, Isaiah Canaan 32 Jacob Evans 30 21.6 SF 4.6 Andre Roberson, L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham 33 Omari Spellman 43 21.5 PF 4.4 Anthony Bennett, Samardo Samuels, Ben Bentil 34 Chimezie Metu 45 21.9 C 4.4 Damian Jones, Richaun Holmes, Brandon Ashley 35 Jarred Vanderbilt 56 19.8 SF 4.2 Grant Jerrett, Jereme Richmond, Daequan Cook 36 Malik Newman 47 21.9 SG 4.2 Jordan Crawford, Jeff Teague, Jared Cunningham 37 Hamidou Diallo 37 20.5 SG 4.0 Kobi Simmons, Lance Stephenson, Avery Bradley 38 Khyri Thomas 31 22.7 SG 3.9 Khalif Wyatt, James Blackmon Jr., Jodie Meeks 39 Keenan Evans 72 22.4 PG 3.8 Tyshawn Taylor, Marcus Denmon, Derrick Marks 40 Ray Spalding 52 21.9 PF 3.8 Brandon Ashley, Marcus Morris, Ed Davis 41 Allonzo Trier 62 23.0 SG 3.6 James Blackmon Jr., Tyler Harvey, Khalif Wyatt 42 Doral Moore 86 22.0 C 3.5 Dexter Pittman, Byron Mullens, Mitch McGary 43 Vince Edwards 65 22.8 PF 3.4 Matt Howard, Solomon Hill, Trevor Booker 44 Kostas Antetokounmpo 58 20.7 SF 3.4 Chris Walker, Grant Jerrett, Skal Labissiere 45 Grayson Allen 27 23.3 SG 3.3 Buddy Hield, Pat Connaughton, Joe Harris 46 Yante Maten 88 22.5 PF 3.2 Rick Jackson, Brandon Costner, Joel Bolomboy 47 Bonzie Colson 68 23.1 PF 3.1 Matt Howard, Perry Ellis, Branden Dawson 48 Melvin Frazier 32 22.4 SF 2.9 Andre Roberson, K.J. McDaniels, Tony Snell 49 Dakota Mathias 75 23.6 SG 2.6 Dez Wells, Thomas Walkup, Marcus Denmon 50 Devonte’ Graham 44 23.9 PG 2.5 Kendall Williams, Aaron Craft, Yogi Ferrell 51 Justin Jackson 41 22.0 PF 2.4 Vince Hunter, Ben Bentil, Tony Mitchell 52 Bruce Brown Jr. 28 22.5 SG 2.4 Jamaal Franklin, Sonny Weems, Marcus Thornton 53 Jevon Carter 34 23.4 PG 2.1 Demetri McCamey, T.J. Williams, Keith Appling 54 Kevin Hervey 46 22.6 SF 2.0 Stanley Robinson, Rodney Williams, Draymond Green 55 Keita Bates-Diop 29 23.0 PF 2.0 Brandon Costner, Robert Carter Jr., Branden Dawson 56 Jaylen Barford 92 23.0 SG 2.0 Marcus Thornton, Jordan Crawford, Jodie Meeks 57 Chandler Hutchison 33 22.8 SF 1.9 Scotty Hopson, Landry Fields, Stanley Robinson 58 Alize Johnson 61 22.8 PF 1.7 Eric Griffin, Malcolm Thomas, Khem Birch 59 DJ Hogg 60 22.4 PF 1.6 Cameron Moore, John Henson, Joe Alexander 60 Gary Clark 57 24.2 PF 1.5 Arsalan Kazemi, Melvin Ejim, Elias Harris 61 Isaac Haas 73 23.3 C 1.4 Dexter Pittman, Brian Zoubek, Festus Ezeli 62 Theo Pinson 70 23.2 SG 1.3 Durrell Summers, Jajuan Johnson, Peter Jok 63 Kenrich Williams 63 24.2 PF 1.3 Jaron Blossomgame, Taj Gibson, Michael Gbinije 64 Devon Hall 51 23.6 SG 1.2 Peter Jok, Jermaine Taylor, Lamar Patterson 65 George King 71 25.0 SF 0.5 Jamel Artis, Elgin Cook, Gilbert Brown 66 MiKyle McIntosh 81 24.5 PF 0.2 Jackie Carmichael, Herb Pope, Lazar Hayward

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On a pure stats basis, Bagley rates as the top pick, somewhat ahead of Ayton. CARMELO sees the two players as being highly similar — they share many of the same comparables — but Bagley is half a year younger, and he posted his stats against tougher competition at Duke than Ayton did at Arizona. College statistics don’t do a good job of accounting for defense, and there are concerns about Bagley’s defense, but the same is true for Ayton. My point is not necessarily that teams should draft Bagley over Ayton — I’d defer to the scouts who say Ayton has more upside. But I do think it’s probably more of a crapshoot than most fans assume.

There’s a similar dynamic between the top point guards in the draft, Oklahoma’s Trae Young and Alabama’s Collin Sexton. The scouts have Young ranked slightly higher, but CARMELO sees them has very comparable players on the basis of their statistics. It’s true that Young scored more points per game than Sexton (27.4 versus 19.2), but that’s because the Sooners played at a faster pace, and Young played more minutes and used a larger share of his team’s possessions — all factors that aren’t particularly predictive of success at an NBA level.

CARMELO also sometimes like guys who played non-starring roles on good teams, such as Kentucky’s Kevin Knox and Duke’s Gary Trent Jr. These players don’t necessarily post hugely impressive raw statistics, in part because they have to share the ball with a lot of other talented players. But they look better when evaluated on an efficiency basis and adjusted for strength of competition.

Finally, there are a few true “computer picks” — guys who didn’t have great scouting pedigrees coming out of high school but who had impressive NCAA seasons. These include Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith and Maryland’s Kevin Huerter, both of whom are reportedly rising on NBA teams’ draft boards.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-promising-players-in-the-nba-draft-according-to-my-computer/

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sheplayswithlifee · 13 days

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Stacey "taking it easy".

#Things Are Happening #The Sims 4 #TS4 #TS4 Gameplay #The Sims 4 Story #TS4 Story #BlackSimmer #Black Simmer #Stacey Marshall-Keita #Gen4 #Omari Keita #Gen5

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sportsv · 6 years

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2018 NBA選秀結果整理與短評

文／黑熊

今年的NBA選秀有點讓人出乎意料，像是前狀元熱門Michael Porter Jr.就爆冷差點掉出樂透區。

延伸閱讀：狀元通常都不是最棒的！今年 NBA 選秀誰有最佳前景？

NBA 2018選秀結果：

1.太陽：DeAndre Ayton C

太陽長久以來的首支狀元籤，可以說是沒有意外的選擇了在當地唸大學的DeAndre Ayton。Ayton一直是狀元熱門，身材條件出色以外，球技也讓人眼睛一亮，讓人聯想到Joel Embiid與David Robinson。雖然在防守上有些為人詬病，但他的天賦條件就在那裡。在拳王持續老化，及Alex Len可能不留的情況下，Ayton應該有很多空間可以好好發揮。

2.國王：Marvin Bagley PF/C

原先預期Luka Doncic會是國王的目標，但是經過最近幾次的試訓，國王還是選擇跳過了Doncic。杜克近幾年出產的幾位新人，都獲得高順位的肯定，包含今年的Tatum、去年的Brandon Ingram。雖然如此，但是杜克出產的球員還是多少會讓人有些疑慮，因為K教練的體系能夠掩蓋球員缺點，放大優點，Bagley進入聯盟後的表現還是得在觀察一下，畢竟也是有適應不良的Jahlil Okafor這種例子。

3.老鷹：Luka Doncic SG/SF （與小牛5順位交易）

小牛將2019受保護的首輪籤與今年5號籤送去與老鷹換取3號籤，選來了原先也是狀元熱門之一的Doncic。此前小牛還與Bamba眉來眼去，但最後還是Doncic更對小牛胃口。許多人看好Doncic會很適合小牛教練Rick Carlisle的體系，能分擔控球，球風又全面的Doncic將讓小牛的調度更加有彈性。

4.灰熊：Jaren Jackson Jr. PF/C 灰熊雖然在此前持續將四號籤與Chandler Parsons的組合包拿去詢價，但最後都沒能如願。現在Marc Gasol已經來到33歲了，是個即將開始走下坡年紀。因此挑選Jackson這位長人除了能夠與Gasol搭配外，將來如果Gasol離開或是退化，他也有可能能夠頂上Gasol的位置。順帶一提Jaren Jackson的父親是馬刺1999年的奪冠班底。

5.小牛：Trae Young PG（與老鷹3順位交易）老鷹在認定德國軟豆（Dennis Schroder）不是球隊控球後衛的解答後，選擇了今年在大學最火紅的Trae Young來接控球後衛這位置可以說是非常合理的選擇。但用第三順位來選擇有點浪費，於是發動了一筆交易來拿到更多資產。被譽為下一個Curry的Trae Young在打團隊球風的老鷹應該能打出不錯的表現。

6.魔術：Mohamed Bamba C

原先魔術的目標應該是Trae Young，畢竟交易掉Elfrid Payton後，他們在控球後衛的位置上需要一名球員來填補。選秀前曾傳出魔術有意向上交易換取更高順位的選秀籤來選取心儀的球員，但最終這情況沒有發生。在魔術重金搶來的Bismack Biyombo表現不如預期，Nikola Vucevic與現在流行球風並不是那麼適合的情況下。今年體測成績破紀錄，擁有非常高天花板的Bamba就成為了魔術的目標。如果魔術今年留下Aaron Gordon的話，這兩人的禁區組合活動力將會非常可怕。

7.公牛：Wendell Carter Jr. C 或許公牛對Michael Porter有些疑慮，所以沒有在這裡將他選走，取而代之的是Wendell Carter。在今年芬蘭司機（Lauri Markkanen）打出成績的情況下，選擇能防守能策應的Carter成為他的未來搭擋是很棒的選擇。Carter能幫Markkanen擦屁股之外，還能餵球給他，這樣一攻一守的組合值得期待。

8.騎士：Collin Sexton PG 騎士原先最心儀的球員應該是Trae Young，但是被攔胡後，剩下較好的控球後衛應該就是Sexton了。不選擇Michael Porter的原因除了有傷病疑慮外，就是有可能想嘗試留下James，所以不選擇位置重複的Porter。Sexton的模板有小Lebron的Eric Bledsoe，先前James曾表示希望能打更多的無球，而能夠自主持球進攻的Sexton預計可以幫James分擔持球壓力（但前提是James得留下來）。

9.尼克：Kevin Knox SF/PF

尼克隊這次的選擇不意外的又被噓了，這似乎快成為尼克隊的傳統了。Kevin Knox模板有Harris，而Harris的模板是甜瓜，或許尼克對甜瓜念念不忘！？其實能3能4的Knox應該很適合尼克，能與Kristaps Porzingis搭擋前鋒出擊，小球陣容時也能與其一起捍衛禁區。其實這1.2年尼克的選秀並不差，或許尼克在Knox身上看出別隊沒發現到的優點。另外Knox進入聯盟後能不能再次打臉尼克球迷會是一大看點。

10.76人：Mikal Bridges SG/SF（與太陽16順位交易） Bridges在當地念大學之外，媽媽任職的公司老闆剛好也是76人隊的老闆，這樣的背景讓他被76人挑走會是非常棒的劇本，許多人也因此這樣恭喜他。但是高興沒多久就被76人交易了，相信Bridges心情就像坐雲霄飛車一樣。在太陽側翼有Devin Booker與Josh Jackson的情況下，相信身手全能的Bridges最多也只能從替補出發，他要競爭的對手應該是簽下四年約的T.J. Warren。

11.黃蜂：Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG （與快艇12順位交易）黃蜂在選秀前出清了Howard，目前看起來是準備要重建了。在選了Alexander後又將他送去快艇，多換了兩隻二輪籤回來，替重建多累積了一些資產。Alexander是名高大的控球後衛，但他6呎6吋的身材讓他也有機會往上打到2號位置。快艇在接連送走Paul與Griffin決定重建後，選擇一名能替球隊後場增添彈性的後場是不錯的選擇。

12.快艇：Miles Bridges SF/PF （與黃蜂11順位交易） Bridges能守多個位置，體能又勁爆，是現在許多球隊都想要的球員類型，他的多功能讓將要重建的黃蜂在陣容上有更多的彈性選擇。未來不論是要頂上Marvin Williams、Nicolas Batum或是Michael Kidd-Gilchrist都有機會。另外他的一些精彩灌籃與火鍋相信能幫這1.2年戰績不佳的黃蜂多賣幾張門票。

13.快艇：Jerome Robinson SG

除了稍早的Alexander以外，快艇又選擇了一名雙能衛。一次將兩隻首輪籤花在後場是比較讓人意外的，尤其是沒有選擇一名長人以防將來Jordan離開球隊，沒錯我現在說的就是原先預期會被快艇選走的Robert Williams。快艇就算不留Milos Teodosic，陣中還有Austin Rivers、Patrick Beverley與Lou Williams這些球員。今年首輪兩位新秀應該獲得的機會會比較少，除非快艇後續還有交易。

14.金塊：Michael Porter Jr. SF

Michael Porter掉到這位置是比較讓人意外的，他原先是狀元大熱門，卻因為背部傷勢問題一路往下掉。背部傷勢嚴重的話可以影響一名球員甚多，曾經西科東麥中的T-Mac就可以說是因為背部問題而離開顛峰。但是在選秀前，Porter的聲勢也曾一度回復上漲，甚至傳出國王有可能在第二位順就選他的風聲。

後續來看，這次Porter並沒有將醫療告報給大部分的球隊檢視，造成多支球隊會有疑慮而避開他也是可以理解的。模板有當今FMVP : Kevin Durant的Porter是大號小前鋒，沒有這背部傷勢的話，光看球風絕對是非常適合當今聯盟風氣的。

金塊隊的陣容雖然整齊有競爭力，但是缺乏頂級天賦，目前陣中核心的Nikola Jokic也不過是二輪選秀球員，這不是說他不好，只是說他離頂級天賦還有段距離。能夠在這個選秀位置賭一把頂級天賦絕對是值得的，畢竟如果只是一般首輪中段的球員的話，應該是很難幫金塊大耀進。但如果Porter打出他模板的8成功力的話，也會是明星球員等級了，這樣要幫金塊打進季後賽甚至走得更遠就不是妄想了。

首輪非樂透區：

15.巫師：Troy Brown SG/SF

巫師這個順位的選擇，出乎很多人的意料之外。先前預測的Zhaire Smith、Zhaire Smith、Keita Bates-Diop甚至是被認為剛好能舒緩巫師禁區問題的Robert Williams都被放過。全能的Brown不是真的有多差，只是說在現在巫師陣型上最需要的不是他，只能說巫師的問題不是選秀就能改變的，後續應該還會有交易發生。如果暑假結束，總管Grunfeld還沒有任何動作解決巫師薪資與陣容上的問題的話，那這15順位的選擇甚至可以說是不及格的。國外不少球迷對這選擇感到失望，甚至憤怒，要求總管Grunfeld下台的言論更不在少數。

16.太陽：Zhaire Smith SG（與76人10順位交易）

太陽選到Smith後打包了2021年熱火的首輪籤跟76人交易，換來Mikal Bridges。76人在前場除了已經有優質又便宜的3D側翼Robert Covington，又有Dario Saric這名優異毆陸前鋒，除此之外76人很想在暑假找來LBJ或是Kawhi Leonard。比起再選擇一名前場球員，選一名可以防守多個位置的後場球員與累積球隊交易籌碼似乎是更好的選擇。Zhaire Smith有機會成為一名優質3D球員，這一個進可攻退可守的操作，可以說是非常的“76人”，不停累積球隊天賦與資產。

17.公鹿：Donte DiVincenzo SG

當Robert Williams這樣的長人掉出樂透區後，需要禁區的隊伍不選擇他，難免會讓人問為什麼？公鹿也是那隻缺中鋒球隊，在換掉Greg Monroe後，公鹿中鋒大部分時間由John Henson、Thon Maker與Tyler Zeller來負責。但在Thon Maker養成不如預期的情況下，這位置還看不到解答，去年公鹿錯過Jarrett Allen後讓部分球迷覺得不滿，今年想必也會有類似的聲音。單以位置來看，公鹿還有Tony Snell、新人王Malcolm Brogdon與Khris Middleton等人可以使用，再選一名得分後衛感覺是比較可惜的。雖然Donte DiVincenzo被不少人看好，但是可能在公鹿現行陣容不會有太多表現機會。

18.馬刺：Lonnie Walker SG

馬刺連續三年用首輪選擇後衛球員，先前的Dejounte Murray在當時被認為是一大偷。雖然現在看來馬刺後場還是各種老矮軟嫩，但再多選一名後衛莫非真的打算練蠱？雖然Walker的潛力不錯，模板甚至有Wade這樣的明星球員，但來就真的能找到空間磨練嗎？預計也是會下放G-League先，而不是期待一來就能替球隊產生貢獻。

而且再一次的，要再問這個問題，為什麼有Robert Williams卻不選。馬刺現行陣容很需要一名適合現代球風且有活動力的防守型中鋒，目前禁區可以說是只有老化明顯的Pau Gasol與LaMarcus Aldridge苦撐。除了Williams以外，我還曾期盼如果馬刺選不到他的話可以嘗試賭Mitchell Robinson看看，反正一般新秀都無法立即給予馬刺貢獻，選擇潛力看起來最高的來練，增加球隊天賦上限不是更好？

相信許多球迷無不期盼馬刺做點什麼來改善禁區這問題，但這1.2年的操作都讓人有討論的空間。雖然可愛沒有在選秀日被交易，但關於他的問題仍持續延燒。或許馬刺後續會有一些動作大幅改變球隊陣容也說不定。

19.老鷹：Kevin Huerter SG

Huerter其實是很多球隊有興趣的一名射手，大學第二年三分命中率提升到超過4成，又帶有一點傳球組織能力。有人說是更棒一些的Kyle Korver、有人說像Mike Miller，從這些類比可以知道就是一名聰明的射手球員。雖然身材上的劣勢（臂展約等於身高）讓他在防守端就註定較吃虧，但如果有好的體系，可能可以掩護他這樣的缺點。前幾年的老鷹有東區馬刺之稱，也讓Kyle Korver打出生涯高峰。Huerter能在老鷹的團隊體系打球對他來說應該是很幸運的，而老鷹稍早前選了號稱下一位Curry的Trae Young，或許老鷹想養出自己的浪花兄弟。過幾年後他們會讓人稱為東區勇士嗎？

20.灰狼：Josh Okogie SG/SF

其實天賦狼隊上真的不少天賦，相對比較普通的位置應該是控球後衛。然而球隊不是在選秀會挑選控衛，而是側翼搖擺人，這讓人多少聯想到先前傳出想交易Andrew Wiggins的消息，這一選擇有可能是先替可能發生的交易在該位置做準備。Okogie活動力非常棒，雖然身高才6呎4吋，但是臂展卻有7呎，這讓他有機會成為一名大鎖，三分命中率在大學來到3成8，養成一名3D是基本期望。目前才19歲的他，有機會長成不只是一名3D球員。

21.爵士：Grayson Allen SG

Allen在本屆的知名度非常之高，但卻不單單只是正向知名度，有人稱其南烈、天殘腳，最多的類比就是Bruce Bowen，這些標籤註定讓人很難只看他的球技。但撇除這些負面的地方，Allen的體測成績出乎不少人意料，彈跳超過40吋，能跳又能砍三分讓人想到另一位Allen，但相信現在沒有多少人將他們做對比，但以另一個Allen作目標或許可以激勵他打出更好的表現。

Allen因為一些原因讓他大學待完四年，加上他是杜克出產的球員。因為這些背景，相信他在團隊籃球配合上應該是沒有問題的，加入團隊取向的爵士應該讓他減少適應的時間。

被爵士選中的Allen肯定得先從替補出發，先以成為穩定3D為目標，這邊的D是Defnese，不是Dirty，更不是Destroy。當然，上季Rubio被各隊欺負的這麼慘，或許爵士這一選多少希望他能提供超過3D的貢獻，例如，成為Rubio保鑣、專業球隊圍事之類的。

白皮膚、小動作（髒）、強硬，這些特質或許會讓老爵迷回憶起老爵時光，像是John Stockton、Jeff Hornacek、哈隊長（Matt Harpring）等人。

22.公牛：Chandler Hutchison SG/SF

公牛選擇Hutchison應該是看上他成為3D球員的潛力，臂展達到7呎1吋，三分命中率在大學後兩年超過3成5。雖然他大學籃板也抓得不少（大四場均7.7個），但是目前他必須得先增重才行，6呎7吋的身高不到200磅。不過好在公牛是重建球隊，有時間給他一年時間一邊增重一邊適應NBA。

23.溜馬：Aaron Holiday PG

昔有長人Plumlee三兄弟，今有後場假日三兄弟。Aaron比起兩位哥哥Jrue與Justin還要瘦小，6呎1吋的身高讓他大概只能在控球後衛這位置發展。Aaron的速度不錯，運球能力不賴，時下最夯的三分投射他也有，大學三分命中率超過4成2。

溜馬現在隊上也有名矮後衛：Darren Collison，Aaron應該能跟著他學到一些東西。而Collison與另一名控球Joseph合約都只剩下一年，若之後有人留不下來，甚至都放掉，那到時已有一年經驗的Aaron應該多少能夠頂上一些時間。 24.拓荒者：Anfernee Simons PG/SG

Simons因為父母是Anfernee（Penny） Hardway的球迷，他也因此得名。雖然同樣是後衛，但是他的身高不像Penny是出色的6呎7吋，只有6呎3吋的Simons因此不能複製Penny的球風來讓父母重溫往日時光。

模板有Monta Ellis的Simons目前仍是一名雙能衛，但是他6呎3吋的身高與6呎7吋的臂展在進入NBA後打2號仍是有些不足，尤其他現在也還不夠壯。第一年如果能夠邊增重並嘗試往控衛的方向磨練，對他的前景應該會是比較好的。如果這條路不順利，那以他的得分能力，預計往球隊第六人發展也是不錯選擇。

25.湖人：Moritz Wagner PF/C

曾有傳聞湖人要在這位置選擇Mitchell Robinson，但最後湖人選擇了來自德國的Wagner這名長人。Wagner是典型的pick-and-pop長人，但是他有以他身高來說不錯的第一步，與不錯的跟進攻守轉換能力。

看到德國長人，有不錯的投射能力，不錯的移動速度，是不是讓人聯想到Dirk Nowitzki。但是不要高興得太早，如果真的是Drik接班人就不會掉到這位置了，他的模板是貧民版Drik的Kelly Olynyk。他也跟Olynyk一樣是手短一族，6呎11吋臂展才7呎，這手長讓人不用太期待他的防守。雖然是這樣，但是有投射能力的長人是湖人教練Walton愛用的類型，所以他或許有機會可以獲得上場時間。不然的話，南灣湖人也會歡迎他的。

26.76人：Landry Shamet PG/SG

Shamet是名高球商的大型控衛，6呎5吋的身高加上一雙長臂。但是相比這樣優勢，他的體能就相對平庸。76人隊的T.J. McConnell合約將要到期，在後場多準備一個保險總是好的。而且Marco Belinelli與J.J. Redick合約也都已經到期了，除了先前跟太陽換來的Zhaire Smith以外，三分命中率超過4成4的Shamet或多或少可以補上一些外線火力。76人隊這幾年在培養球隊綠葉方面做得都挺不錯，Shamet天花板雖然沒有太高，但在76的培養下，或許能成為不錯的球隊第2.3號替補控球。

27.塞爾蒂克：Robert Williams PF/C

綠衫軍在這位置撿到Robert Williams可以說是撿到樂透彩卷了，Williams曾經一度衝上前5順位，雖然比不上前面幾位長人且順位下修，但此前一般預期至少會是樂透末或是首輪中段。安吉這次不用做什麼操作就能拿到這樣一名球員，真的是非常好運，但相信又讓不少人想黑他了。（什麼？你說安吉什麼都沒做也能被黑，沒錯，誰叫之前太多人吃過他虧了。）雖然Williams掉到這位置八成是有什麼問題，現在普遍消息來看是在態度上有問題。但今年打出優質表現，還曾有機會搶新人王的Jayson Tatum也曾傳出防守態度問題。後續來看，加入綠衫軍後Tatum在防守態度上並沒有外界一開始的疑慮，在帥哥教練Brad Stevens體系下也打出非常優異的成績。當然Williams大概不可能複製Tatum這樣亮眼的成績，但是還是可以期待在綠衫軍制服組的照看下，他有機會改善態度替球隊做出貢獻。就算最後這張彩卷沒有兌現，那也沒有什麼損失，沒有花費太多代價只用27順位來賭根本不痛不癢。以球風來看，他剛好是目前綠衫軍最缺的類型：有優異活動力的防守型中鋒。今年Al Horford在有Aron Baynes分擔髒活與防守的情況下，打出了更好的表現。Williams只要能有類似貢獻，對球隊就是不小的幫助了，如果真能成長到如模板的DeAndre Jordan與Clint Capela，那就是不花太多代價就獲得準明星等級的球員了。如果要給綠衫軍這次選秀評價的話，給個A不為過吧。 28.勇士：Jacob Evans SG/SF 勇士已經決定不留下Nick Young，在側翼多空了一個位置出來。已經展現出不錯防守能力，籃球智商不錯又能投三分的Evans是一個不錯的選擇。這幾年在勇士完整體系之下，不少新人與綠葉都能因為明確分工打出不錯的成績。球商相對Young來說更高的Evans應該更能有所發揮，可以期待看看他能不能在新人年就在勇士隊上站穩腳步。

29.籃網：Dzanan Musa SF

Musa是一個非常棒的歐陸球員，能從控球打到小前鋒。他的體能比外界預期的好，尤其是他的第一步，有些時候可以幫助他擺脫對手。他有非常出色的球商，這讓他在較有完善體系的球隊打球會更能發揮他的能力。原本他是馬刺的目標之一，但掉下來後被籃網撿到，這選擇對籃網來說非常不錯。他模板之一是Bojan Bogdanovic，Bogdanovic也曾經在籃網隊打過球，相信給予Musa差不多的角色任務，Musa也能交出不錯的成績。

30.老鷹：Omari Spellman PF/C

Spellman的三分命中率超過4成3，能夠幫助球隊拉開空間。爭搶籃板的能力不錯，積極拼搶也能提供隊友搶到進攻籃板的機會。他的防守有些問題，在遇到身材比他高大，或是活動力比他好的球員容易陷入掙扎。老鷹的Dewayne Dedmon與Mike Muscala合約即將到期，在這個30順位這個位置選到一名長人，可以嘗試培養看看能否在兩位離去後，頂上一些禁區的時間。二輪： 31.太陽：Elie Okobo PG 32.灰熊：Jevon Carter PG 33.小牛：Jalen Brunson PG 34.老鷹：Devonte Graham PG（交易給黃蜂） 35.魔術：Melvin Frazier SG/SF 36.尼克：Mitchell Robinson C 37.國王：Gary Trent Jr. SG（交易給拓荒者） 38.76人：Khyri Thomas SG（交易給活塞） 39.76人：Isaac Bonga SF（交易給湖人） 40.籃網：Rodions Kurucs SF 41.魔術：Jarred Vanderbilt SF（交易給金塊） 42.活塞：Bruce Brown SG 43.金塊：Justin Jackson MD SF/PF（交易給魔術） 44.巫師：Issuf Sanon PG/SG 45.籃網：Hamidou Diallo SG 46.火箭：De'Anthony Melton PG/SG 47.湖人：Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk SG 48.灰狼：Keita Bates-Diop SF/PF 49.馬刺：Chimezie Metu PF/C 50.溜馬：Alize Johnson PF 51.鵜鶘：Tony Carr PG 52.爵士：Vince Edwards SF（交易給火箭） 53.雷霆：Devon Hall PG/SG 54.小牛：Shake Milton PG/SG 55.黃蜂：Arnoldas Kulboka SF 56.76人：Raymond Spalding PF（交易給小牛） 57.雷霆：Kevin Hervey SF/PF 58.金塊：Thomas Welsh C 59.暴龍：George King SF 60.76人：Kostas Antetokounmpo SF/PF（交易給小牛）

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theplaymakerz · 6 years

Text

NBA Draft 2018 Recap

Last night in the Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn, New York, the 2018 NBA Draft took place. Some believed that this draft class was the most talented class in a while. Duke, Kentucky, and the national champ Villanova all had four of their players drafted last night, most by a single school last night. The night started however with the Phoenix Suns drafting Arizona’s Deandre Ayton with the 1st overall pick.

Duke had two of the four players goes in the first 10 picks and three overall in the 1st Round. Talented Center Marvin Bagley III went 2nd overall to the Sacramento Kings, another talented Blue Devil Center, Wendell Carter Jr., went 7th overall to the Chicago Bull, and Duke’s Senior Guard Grayson Allen went 21st overall to the Denver Nuggets.

Kentucky had two of their four players go in the lottery as well. With the 9th overall pick, the New York Knicks selected Kentucky’s Kevin Knox. Then the Charlotte Hornets with the 11th pick selected Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from Big Blue Nation, but traded the rights to the Los Angeles Clippers for the rights to the 12th pick, Miles Bridges from Michigan State.

Villanova’s lone lottery pick was Mikal Bridges at 10th overall to the Philadelphia 76ers. A homecoming it seemed at first but later that night, the 76ers traded Bridges to the Phoenix Suns for Zhaire Smith out of Texas Tech University.

There was seven International players drafted last night. Real Madrid’s standout Luka Donic was drafted 3rd overall to the Atlanta Hawks but then traded to the Dallas Mavericks for Oklahoma’s standout Trae Young at 5th overall. This seems to be a good trade for Donic seeing that he will be teamed up with future Hall of Famer and International Star from Germany, Dirk Nowitzki. The next International player wasn’t drafted until the 29th pick, Dzanan Musa from Cedevita (Croatia) drafted by the Brooklyn Nets.

The steal of the draft has to be the San Antonio Spurs drafting Lonnie Walker IV from Miami. Walker IV was an All-ACC Freshman Team, who score the ball at 6′4 with a 6′10 wingspan, and a 40-inch vertical. Walker IV plays both side of the ball. He can be on the ball and off the ball. He can help fill a void if Kawhi Leonard gets traded or be a valuable asset to take pressure off of Kawhi Leonard.

The Denver Nuggets probably had the best draft overall to help Rookie of the Year Candidate Donovan Mitchell after a surprising season led by Head Coach Quin Snyder. Getting Michael Porter Jr. at the 14th pick is a steal depending on Porter Jr.’s health. Then at the 21st pick drafting Senior Blue Devil Guard Grayson Allen. A big men to team with Rudy Gobert in Porter Jr. and Allen to go with Mitchell gives the Nuggets more flexible on the court.

Full NBA Draft Picks

1st Round:

1. Phoenix Suns-Deandre Ayton, C (Arizona)

2. Sacramento Kings-Marvin Bagley III, C (Duke)

3. Atlanta Hawks-Luke Doncic, PG (Real Madrid: Spain) Traded to DAL

4. Memphis Grizzlies-Jaren Jackson Jr., PF (Michigan St.)

5. Dallas Mavericks-Trae Young, PG (Oklahoma) Traded to ATL

6. Orlando Magic-Mohamed Bamba, C (Texas)

7. Chicago Bulls-Wendell Carter Jr., C (Duke)

8. Cleveland Cavaliers-Collin Sexton, PG (Alabama)

9. New York Knicks-Kevin Knox, SF (Kentucky)

10. Philadelphia 76ers-Mikal Bridges, SF (Villanova) Traded to PHX

11. Charlotte Hornets-Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG (Kentucky) Traded to LAC

12. Los Angeles Clippers-Miles Bridges, SF (Michigan St.) Traded to CHA

13. Los Angeles Clippers-Jerome Robinson, PG (Boston College)

14. Denver Nuggets-Michael Porter Jr., PF (Missouri)

15. Washington Wizards-Troy Brown, SG (Oregon)

16. Phoenix Suns-Zhaire Smith, SG (Texas Tech) Traded to PHI

17. Milwaukee Bucks-Donte DiVincenzo, SG (Villanova)

18. San Antonio Spurs-Lonnie Walker IV, SG (Miami)

19. Atlanta Hawks-Kevin Huerter, SG (Maryland)

20. Minnesota Timberwolves-Josh Okogie, SG (Georgia Tech)

21. Denver Nuggets-Grayson Allen, SG (Duke)

22. Chicago Bulls-Chandler Hutchison, SF (Boise St.)

23. Indiana Pacers-Aaron Holiday, PG (UCLA)

24. Portland Trail Blazers-Anfernee Simons, SG (IMG Academy)

25. Los Angeles Lakers-Mortiz Wagner, C (Michigan)

26. Philadelphia 76ers-Landry Shamet, PG (Wichita St.)

27. Boston Celtics-Robert Williams, C (Texas A&M)

28. Golden State Warriors-Jacob Evans, SF (Cincinnati)

29. Brooklyn Nets-Dzanan Musa, SF (Cedevita: Croatia)

30. Atlanta Hawks-Omari Spellman, PF (Villanova)

2nd Round:

31. Phoenix Suns-Elie Okobo, PG (Pau Orthez: France)

32. Memphis Grizzlies-Jevon Carter, PG (West Virginia)

33. Dallas Mavericks-Jalen Brunson, PG (Villanova)

34. Atlanta Hawks-Devonte’ Graham, PG (Kansas) Traded to CHA

35. Orlando Magic-Melvin Frazier, SF (Tulane)

36. New York Knicks-Mitchell Robinson, C (N/A)

37. Sacramento Kings-Gary Trent Jr., SG (Duke) Traded to POR

38. Philadelphia 76ers-Khyri Thomas, SG (Creighton)

39. Philadelphia 76ers-Isaac Bonga, SF (Frankfurt: Germany)

40. Brooklyn Nets-Rodions Kurucs, PF (FC Barcelona: Spain)

41. Orlando Magic-Jarred Vanderbilt, SF (Kentucky) Traded to DEN

42. Detroit Pistons-Bruce Brown, SG (Miami)

43. Denver Nuggets-Justin Jackson, PF (Maryland)

44. Washington Wizards-Issuf Sanon, PG (Olimpija: Slovenia)

45. Brooklyn Nets-Hamidou Diallo, SG (Kentucky)

46. Houston Rockets-De’Anthony Melton, PG (USC)

47. Los Angeles Lakers-Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG (Kansas)

48. Minnesota Timberwolves-Keita Bates-Diop, SF (Ohio St.)

49. San Antonio Spurs-Chimezie Metu, PF (USC)

50. Indiana Pacers-Alize Johnson, PF (Missouri St.)

51. New Orleans Pelicans-Tony Carr, PG (Penn St.)

52. Utah Jazz-Vincent Edwards, SF (Purdue) Traded to HOU

53. Oklahoma City Thunder-Devon Hall, SG (Virginia)

54. Dallas Mavericks-Shake Milton, PG (SMU) Traded to PHI

55. Charlotte Hornets-Arnoldas Kulboka, SF (Orlandina Basket: Italy)

56. Philadelphia 76ers-Ray Spalding, PF (Louisville) Traded to DAL

57. Oklahoma City Thunder-Kevin Hervey, SF (UT-Arlington)

58. Denver Nuggets-Thomas Welsh, C (UCLA)

59. Phoenix Suns-George King, SG (Colorado)

60. Philadelphia 76ers-Kostas Antetokounmpo, PF (Dayton) Traded to DAL

#nba #nba draft

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placetobenation · 6 years

Link

Brian shares his thoughts on the first round of tonight’s NBA draft!

1. PHOENIX – C DeAndre Ayton, Arizona Fr.

A physical freak, Ayton also showed improvement in all facets of the game as his season progressed. His defensive awareness needs to improve but he can block shots and protect the rim. In a draft filled with uncertainty, Ayton as the #1 overall pick seems like the safest bet.

2. SACRAMENTO – PF Marvin Bagley, Duke Fr.

Without a go-to scorer on the team, Bagley makes the most sense here. The Kings need help just about everywhere but despite Bagley’s defensive shortcomings he should be able to run the floor with De’Aaron Fox. Trading down is certainly an option especially since the Kings have been linked to Michael Porter.

3. ATLANTA – PF/C Jaren Jackson, Michigan State Fr.

Jackson’s name has soared up draft boards and is one of the youngest players in the draft. He pairs greatly with PF John Collins too and can give the team a rim protector. Mohamed Bamba also fits that bill (and someone I personally think will be a better NBA player) too although Jackson has been linked to this pick. The Hawks have also been putting out feelers to trade PG Dennis Schroder and have been linked to Trae Young so trading down is an option for them too.

4. MEMPHIS – SG/SF Luka Doncic, Real Madrid (Spain)

Doncic at #4 could end up being a steal for the Grizzlies seeing that he was at one point though to be the best player in the draft. He’d fit in well with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. The big question for him in the NBA is his lack of lateral speed,which limits his ability to create space. Michael Porter is an option here too if the Grizzlies medical staff give him a clean bill of health.

5. DALLAS – C Mohamed Bamba, Texas Fr.

Last year the Mavericks addressed their backcourt in the first round with Dennis Smith so they can now address their frontcourt this year as Nerlens Noel has been a major disappointment while Dirk Nowitzki is 40 years old. Bamba projects as an elite rim protector and can shoot from downtown. This could be another potential landing spot for Porter too or even for teams who want Bamba. The Celtics have been linked and can offer the Mavericks Jaylen Brown along with other draft picks. There’s also a chance Bamba could slide down if not taken here.

6. ORLANDO – PG Trae Young, Oklahoma Fr.

The only point guards currently under contract for the Magic D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack, the latter whose contract is non-guaranteed. Young took the college basketball world by storm until is play fell off the last few months but he is still a threat on offense and can help a team desperate for more offense. Plus, he’s very good operating out of the pick-and-roll, which was used frequently by new head coach Steve Clifford while he was the coach in Charlotte.

7. CHICAGO – SF/PF Michael Porter, Missouri Fr.

I cannot see Porter going past this pick and he can go as early as #2 as long as teams are confident in his medical issues. Porter is the best combo forward in the draft and his high release will really make it difficult for him to defend. He will need to add strength and might not be able to immediate contribute but the potential for a dynamic offensive player is there.

8. CLEVELAND – PG Collin Sexton, Alabama Fr.

The Cavaliers mid-season point guard additions did not pan out and whether or not LeBron James stays the position will need to be addressed. Sexton might be more of a combo guard but and will have to play the point in the NBA due to his height but he has been improving in that department. Plus, he can help with defense on the perimeter, a weakness for the team. The Cavs could also think about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this spot.

9. NEW YORK – SG/SF Mikal Bridges, Villanova Jr.

The Knicks need an identity and I do not think you are going to get a franchise altering pick here but Bridges is a safe bet as a quality 3-and-D wing which fits one of the many positions of need for the team. Last year’s lottery pick Frank Ntilikina does not appear able to run the point in the NBA so taking another PG this year is another option.

10. PHILADELPHIA – PF/C Wendell Carter, Duke Fr.

Carter’s ceiling is lower than the other projected bigs in the lottery and struggles to defend the perimeter but can play in the post and is a high IQ player and can make the team more confident when Embiid needs rest. There is also a rumor the team is looking to trade into the top 5 (Michael Porter?) so keep that in mind.

11. CHARLOTTE – SF/PF Kevin Knox, Kentucky Fr.

Charlotte can also trade point guard Kemba Walker and get his replacement that way (which I think will happen) so Knox makes sense here as the team needs a perimeter threat. He’s also one of the youngest players in the draft as he does not turn 19 years old until August. He was inconsistent in college and will need to get pushed to reach his potential but the talent is there.

12. LA CLIPPERS – SG Zhaire Smith, Texas Tech Fr.

Smith is a freak athlete and has the potential to be a lockdown defender. His offensive game needs to grow but has some skills that remind people of another rookie Doc Rivers used to coach in Avery Bradley, who just happens to be an unrestricted free agent unlikely to get brought back.

13. LA CLIPPERS – PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kentucky Fr.

Taking another guard is not the worst thing in the world given the state of the team’s backcourt. Gilgeous-Alexander has the length and shooting ability teams want in today’s NBA. They might take a chance on Robert Williams to fill a need as a big.

14. DENVER – SF Miles Bridges, Michigan State Soph.

With Wilson Chandler’s status on the team in limbo the Nuggets should look to find his replacement. Bridges is a solid shooter with versatility on defense. The team will have to get some cheaper contracts in order to pay Nikola Jokic so expect the Nuggets to be active on the trade front.

15. WASHINGTON – PF/C Robert Williams, Texas A&M Soph.

Marcin Gortat is a free agent and 34 years old plus the team’s frontcourt depth is shallow. Williams has athleticism and a huge wingspan plus plays a physical style. His offensive game is lacking though and there have been concerns about his work ethic that could have him drafted anywhere from 10-20. This could be a steal for the Wizards.

16. PHOENIX – SG Troy Brown, Oregon Fr.

The Suns desperately need to improve their defense so getting an athletic wing with the potential to defend multiple positions like Brown is a smart move.

17. MILWAUKEE – PG/SG Jerome Robinson, Boston College Jr.

The Bucks backcourt could use some help and Robinson can shoot or play off of the ball. He should be able to come off the bench as a scoring option in the NBA.

18. SAN ANTONIO – SG Lonnie Walker, Miami Fr.

Walker could very well be a lottery pick with his crazy wingspan and high upside but his inconsistent season at Miami has left doubt as to whether or not he can reach his potential. For an older team with a need of backcourt help, Walker makes sense and could be a steal if he buys into coach Gregg Popovich’s system.

19. ATLANTA – SG Khyri Thomas, Creighton Jr.

The Hawks need some offensive firepower from the two-guard position. Thomas should be able to help as a role player from day one but is already 22 years old so will not have a high ceiling as others in the draft.

20. MINNESOTA – SG Donte DiVincenzo, Villanova Soph.

With Jamal Crawford a free agent the team will need more scoring off the bench. DiVincenzo came off the bench for Villanova and has shown to be an aggressive defender that would be appreciated by coach Tim Thibodeau.

21. UTAH – SF Dzanan Musa, Cedevita (Bosnia)

Wing scoring is arguably the biggest weakness on this team and that is Musa’s specialty as he’s one of the best scorers to come out of Europe. He is a name rising up draft boards and could even go as high as pick #14.

22. CHICAGO – Chandler Hutchinson, Boise State Sr.

The Bulls defense is poor and having a guy that can defend multiple positions like Hutchinson should help. Hutchinson produces turnovers, can rebound, and scores in the paint. Being a senior is what limits his ceiling and could see him slip to the beginning of the second round, especially seeing that he’ll need to improve his shooting.

23. INDIANA – PG Elie Okobo, France

Both Darren Collison and Cory Joseph are free agents after next season so picking Okobo and grooming him as the point guard of the future makes sense. He can score and has the ability to excel on defense but still needs to work out the kinks.

24. PORTLAND – SG/SF Jacob Evans, Cincinnati Jr.

Evans doesn’t excel anywhere but is versatile and can play either off or on the ball. His best trait is on defense and Portland needs help on the wing.

25. LA LAKERS – SG Gary Trent, Duke Fr.

Trading this pick for more cap space is an option but the Lakers do not have anything at shooting guard. Trent’s specialty is shooting and while he does not appear to be able to do much more than that, today’s game is reliant on three-point shooting so he is worth a shot at the end of the 1st.

26. PHILADELPHIA – SG Grayson Allen, Duke Sr.

The team is likely losing JJ Redick and adding a shooter (and agitator) will help spread the floor for Ben Simmons.

27. BOSTON – PF/C Omari Spellman, Villanova Fr.

I believe this team will find a way to retain Marcus Smart and can address front court depth here. Spellman can protect the rim and is aggressive on the glass and the team might not be able to retain Aron Baynes while Greg Monroe is likely not returning. This team needs youth behind Al Horford.

28. GOLDEN STATE – SG Josh Okogie, Georgia Tech Soph.

Andre Igoudala is not getting any younger and the team needs to get cheap contracts on board with all the stars on the team. Okogie can hit open three’s and defend multiple positions.

29. BROOKLYN – SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop, Ohio St. Jr.

Bates-Diop is another strong, athletic guy who can defend multiple positions. He can also get to the rim with ease but is also 22 years old and an inconsistent shooter.

30. ATLANTA – PG Aaron Holiday, UCLA Jr.

Current starter Dennis Schroder’s future with the team is unclear and there is a lack of depth behind him so going after Holiday with the hopes he could become a starter makes sense. He can shoot and plays aggressively but lacks height and can be turnover prone.

#IFTTT #Place to Be Nation

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buddyrabrahams · 6 years

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15 best sleepers in the NBA Draft

Take a look back at the 2017 NBA Draft and you’ll find a number of slept-on prospects who blossomed in their rookie seasons. Donovan Mitchell fell to No. 13, John Collins to No. 19, and Kyle Kuzma to No. 27.

Teams got lucky in the second round, too. Boston snagged Semi Ojeleye. Golden State traded for the rights to the No. 37 pick, Jordan Bell. Memphis acquired Dillon Brooks.

What a difference a year makes. While the players enumerated above shattered expectations, others who looked like can’t-miss studs last summer now seem destined for a quick exit from the league.

A franchise can make or break its future with a successful draft, and many of the best gems – like Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard – tend to slip past the lottery. Below are 15 under-the-radar sleepers to whom teams should pay attention.

15. Chimezie Metu, PF, USC

Metu, 6-foot-11 and 225 pounds, is a stellar athlete. He averaged 1.7 blocks per game in his junior season. His offensive repertoire has expanded, but he’s still a project — he has work to do in that arena. Metu is comfortable handling the rock. Additionally, his free-throw shooting improved greatly over his three collegiate seasons, from 53 percent as a freshman to 73 percent as a junior. Metu has all the physical tools to transform into an imposing defensive force.

14. Dzanan Musa, SF, Bosnia

Musa just turned 19, but the 6-foot-9 forward has won three straight Croatian league titles. He’s played at Croatia’s highest level since he was 15. Musa has a fiery personality – he will be fun to watch. That fire gets him in trouble sometimes, so he’ll need to learn to control his emotions. Musa also needs to hit the weight room and consume some calories; he weighs only 195 pounds. He is a natural scorer with high basketball IQ.

13. Rawle Alkins, SG, Arizona

The 6-foot-4 New York native averaged 13.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game in his sophomore campaign. He played in the shadow of likely No. 1 overall pick DeAndre Ayton, and Arizona’s season was marred by recruiting controversy and an unceremonious NCAA Tournament exit at the hands of Buffalo. Alkins’ skillset wasn’t on full display this year, but he has potential to break out at the next level.

12. Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton

I’ve been driving the Khyri Thomas hype train this season. He hasn’t gotten much attention because of Creighton’s relatively low competition level, but Thomas’ picture-perfect jumper is a thing of beauty. He shot 41.1 percent from deep this season and averaged 15.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Thomas, 6-foot-4, finishes through contact and has a deft touch at the rim. At 22, he’s a bit older than most prospects, and he was a late bloomer, but Thomas should provide his new NBA team a scoring punch off the bench.

11. Moritz Wagner, PF, Michigan

Moe Wagner is both a great Twitter follow and an intriguing draft prospect. The 6-foot-11 junior showed his stuff in the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament; he’s perhaps the biggest reason Michigan, a No. 3 seed, marched all the way to the national title game. Wagner is a prototypical stretch big. He’s a constant threat to shoot in pick-and-roll situations. Some have speculated that Wagner will struggle against NBA athleticism, but Wagner is a decent athlete himself, and he has the work ethic to carve out an NBA niche.

10. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke

Allen’s repeated tripping incidents will likely cost him in the draft, but I believe he’ll be a pleasant surprise for whichever suitor takes a chance on him. The 6-foot-4 guard was one of the ACC’s best players in each of his final three collegiate seasons, and he’s an explosive athlete. He’s also a knock-down shooter. Give Allen credit — the 22-year-old was willing to take a backseat as highly touted freshman after highly touted freshman came through Durham. Ego won’t be an issue with Allen, and he’ll be an off-ball offensive threat from the jump.

9. Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova

What is there to say about Brunson that hasn’t already been said? A five-star recruit and the No. 1 point guard in his class, Brunson entered Villanova with high expectations – and he exceeded them. The 2018 Naismith Player of the Year is seemingly every coach’s favorite player. A natural leader, Brunson plays within himself. In leading the Wildcats to the title this season, he averaged 18.9 points and 4.6 assists per game. Brunson was the NCAA’s best player from wire to wire, and he has the grit and mindset to claim a pro roster spot.

8. Jevon Carter, PG, West Virginia

The same day Brunson won the award for national player of the year, Carter won the award for national defensive player of the year. Carter, the point man of “Press Virginia,” is a terror on defense. Donte DiVincenzo said Carter was the best defender he played against. A two-time Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, Carter is gritty and a strong athlete. His offensive game improved throughout his collegiate career, but he still has work to do in that realm. Nonetheless, he should get minutes at the pro level because of his defensive tenacity.

7. Isaac Bonga, SF, Germany

Bonga, 6-foot-8, can switch any spot from 1-4. Call him a point forward. Bonga made his pro debut in Germany at age 16. He eventually became the youngest player (at age 18) to qualify for Germany’s senior national team in 40 years. Bonga, who has nearly a 7-foot wingspan, is a stat-sheet stuffer. He’s another player who needs to put on weight; bulking up should greatly increase his effectiveness. Bonga has stellar court vision and passing ability.

6. Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami

Walker, 19, was the No. 18 player in his class, and he had a strong college campaign, earning the ACC’s Freshman of the Year honors. Walker led Miami in scoring with 11.5 points per game. His best moment came when he hit a three against Boston College with only two seconds remaining to give the Hurricanes a 79-78 win – ice cold. Walker, 6-foot-5, has long arms and the athleticism to excel defensively, but he has a habit of looking disengaged on that end. He is an aggressive scorer who’s confident in his abilities; his moxie should be a big boon as he makes the NBA leap.

5. Anfernee Simons, PG, IMG Academy

If Simons – who was named after Penny Hardaway – had spent one year in college, he’d likely rank higher on big boards. The 19-year-old elected to go straight from IMG Academy to the league, becoming the first American to leap from high school to the pros since the draft rules changed in 2005. Simons is only 6-foot-4, but he has a 6-foot-7 wingspan. He’s a natural scorer and reliable outside shooter. He’ll probably fall out of the lottery, but Simons will make teams regret passing on him.

4. Keita Bates-Diop, SF, Ohio State

Bates-Diop, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was a consensus second-team All-American. The 6-foot-8 junior has a 7-foot-3 wingspan, and he’s a stellar athlete to boot. He needs to improve his ball handling and shooting, but he averaged 19.8 points per game nonetheless. Bates-Diop has tremendous three-and-D potential. The Illinois native is another elder statesman – he’s 22 – but he still has room to develop. Bates-Diop stands out for his physical gifts, maturity, and basketball IQ, and he’s comfortable banging around the rim.

3. Omari Spellman, PF, Villanova

Spellman revolutionized his body in college, dropping from 300 pounds all the way down to 245. As a redshirt freshman, he started the whole season and was a force in the NCAA Tournament. In the Final Four against Kansas, he put up 15 points and 13 rebounds. A gifted forward with a beautiful outside shot, Spellman is also a vicious rim protector; he blocked 1.5 shots per game this season. Spellman is still coming into his own, and it’s not clear which position he’ll play – but as we’ve seen with Draymond, that doesn’t really matter as long as you can play.

2. Jacob Evans, SF, Cincinnati

Evans, a junior, made first-team All-AAC this year. The Baton Rouge native gradually improved through his three collegiate seasons. With a strong, 6-foot-6 frame and 6-foot-9 wingspan, Evans is versatile. He was one of the NCAA’s best defenders this season and averaged 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. Evans needs to improve his consistency and rebounding, and as weird as this sounds, he needs to become more selfish – he passed up opportunities in college too frequently. If he lands in the right situation, Evans could blossom into the steal of the draft.

1. Zhaire Smith, SG, Texas Tech

Smith has flown under the radar for his whole basketball career. The 19-year-old was only a three-star recruit, but he shined in his lone season with Texas Tech. Smith qualified for the Big 12’s All-Defensive Team. He’s not viewed as a major offensive threat, but he posted 11.3 points per game and shot 57 percent from the field. Smith, 6-foot-4, simply knows where to be at the right time; his court sense is amazing. Smith still isn’t a real playmaker on the offensive end, but he has the potential to become one – and he’s already a standout defender. Look for Smith to go about 10 picks after he should.

Aaron Mansfield is a freelance sports writer. His work has appeared in Complex, USA Today, and the New York Times. You can reach him via email at [email protected].

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hsews · 6 years

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The best prospect in the 2018 NBA draft is not Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic. It’s Marvin Bagley III.

That assertion is neither a scout’s opinion nor a writer’s hot take, but rather the conclusion of ESPN’s Draft Analytics model, which has been expanded in 2018 to include more information than ever before.

The former Arizona center and Slovenian point guard are widely regarded as the primary candidates for the Suns’ selection at the No. 1 spot, but the model — based on a variety of criteria — projects Bagley to have the best average early career of anyone in the class. It also believes Bagley has the best chance among this year’s crop of playing at an all-star level in his first five seasons.

You can read more about ESPN’s model here but the cliff notes version is that it considers, along with basic information like position and age, data from up to five categories for each player:

We created a model for each of those five categories and then one overarching model that produces our full projection. So what vaults a player like Bagley over his peers? Well for starters, this is not a unanimous decision: Ayton and Doncic both rank higher in ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony’s Top 100 (what we use for scout rankings), so Bagley had to make up ground in other areas.

And that he did.

First, according to our numbers, Bagley was a touch more productive in college than Ayton, though the two players were remarkably similar statistically.

Both players were extremely valuable to their teams on the offensive end of the court, but in terms of opponent-adjusted defensive rating, Bagley ranked in the 91st percentile among D-I players last year, while Ayton ranked in the 78th. Keep in mind, this is opponent-adjusted rating, so the fact that Duke played tougher opponents than Arizona is factored into the equation here. Offensively they were similar, though Bagley was superior at drawing fouls.

Ultimately, the difference is minor: Bagley ranks fourth while Ayton ranks seventh in our NCAA production component.

Where the real separation occurs is actually prior to when either was in college: it’s their AAU numbers. Bagley, playing for his father’s Phoenix Phamily team, put up better numbers in most parts of the game relative to Ayton on California Supreme.

Bagley shot better and rebounded and blocked at a higher rate than Ayton. Ultimately, Bagley’s AAU box plus-minus ranked in the 93rd percentile of players on his circuit while Ayton was in the 82nd percentile, though it is worth noting that Bagley was in a much higher usage environment than Ayton at that time. Our AAU component ranks Bagley as the third-best player in this class, whereas Ayton is only 13th.

But that information is old, you might be thinking. What do we need those numbers from before college when we have the data from when they were in college? Because one college season isn’t a particularly large sample, and looking back a little further increases our information pool. This is something not only we do in our model, but a task some NBA teams are undertaking as well.

And how about Doncic? That’s a little more complicated. Though he doesn’t overlap with Bagley in any category other than our scout rankings, we’ve learned enough about the translation of international statistics — and have the benefit of having some players in our dataset who have played both internationally and in college — that we can get a sense of how everyone stacks up. Doncic was exceptional in likely the best non-NBA league in the world, but based on his performance at Real Madrid and what we know about Bagley, the Duke star moved ahead of the Slovenian at the top of our overall rankings. Ayton ranks No. 3.

So where does the model come down on some of the other top names in this year’s class?

No. 4 Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State

Overall the model likes Jackson in spite of what it would consider a lack of star potential. The system believes he is remarkably solid and the most likely player to end up a regular starter — but not an All-Star — in the NBA with a 42 percent chance. His shot to reach that next level — of being an all-star — is much lower (8 percent) than someone like Mikal Bridges (15 percent). For teams picking this high, it’s hard to pass upside in a star-driven league like the NBA.

No. 5 Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova

Besides Bagley at No. 1, Bridges is a fairly big call for the model at No. 5. It’s only a handful of spots ahead of where many expect him to go, but this early, that makes a big difference. To wrap up the thought above, Bridges’ 15 percent All-Star chance makes him second-most likely in the class, behind only Bagley, despite the fact that he quite possibly will be the oldest person selected in the lottery. This is all about his college production: at Villanova he was an efficient scorer with strong ball security and provided both steals and blocks en route to a strong overall defensive rating. From the model’s standpoint, looking at his college play, what’s not to like?

No. 9 Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech

Smith, an athletic wing, is ranked worse than ninth in our scout, combine and AAU models but makes it all up with his NCAA production. Offensively he gets credit for scoring efficiently in a very tough conference — though notably with a much lower usage rate than some of his peers — and for contributing on the offensive glass. But our model likes him for his play at both ends of court, and on defense he produced steals and blocks en route to a strong individual defensive rating.

No. 10 Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma

No one is a boom-or-bust prospect in this year’s class quite like Young, the divisive player who took college hoops by storm at the beginning of the season before struggling in the second half of the year. Outside of Lonnie Walker IV, whom the model despises, no one has a higher bust percentage (23 percent) than Young in Givony’s top 15. But at the same time, the former Oklahoma point guard also has the fifth-best shot at becoming an all-star (12 percent).

No. 11 Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri

Another reason for the inclusion of more information this year: without it, we would have little to go on for someone like Porter, who missed almost all of the Tigers’ season due to injury. Porter was ranked sixth in this draft class for his youth performance, but only 15th in combine measurements due at least in part to having a below-average wingspan for his height.

NBA Draft Projections — Top 30

Rank Name College/Country All-Star Starter Role Player Bust 1 Marvin Bagley III Duke 16% 38% 35% 11% 2 Luka Doncic Slovenia 14% 39% 35% 12% 3 DeAndre Ayton Arizona 12% 37% 36% 15% 4 Jaren Jackson Jr Michigan State 8% 42% 40% 10% 5 Mikal Bridges Villanova 15% 28% 45% 12% 6 Mohamed Bamba Texas 7% 40% 41% 12% 7 Wendell Carter Jr Duke 10% 35% 39% 16% 8 Collin Sexton Alabama 11% 30% 38% 21% 9 Zhaire Smith Texas Tech 10% 30% 45% 16% 10 Trae Young Oklahoma 12% 26% 39% 23% 11 Michael Porter Jr Missouri 9% 30% 44% 17% 12 Kevin Knox Kentucky 7% 32% 45% 16% 13 De’Anthony Melton USC 10% 27% 38% 25% 14 Troy Brown Oregon 7% 30% 43% 21% 15 Keita Bates-Diop Ohio State 8% 23% 45% 25% 16 Mitchell Robinson NA 9% 28% 40% 23% 17 Jevon Carter West Virginia 8% 24% 37% 31% 18 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Kentucky 4% 32% 41% 24% 19 Miles Bridges Michigan State 7% 24% 50% 20% 20 Robert Williams Texas A&M 7% 26% 44% 23% 21 Jacob Evans Cincinnati 5% 21% 48% 26% 22 Jarred Vanderbilt Kentucky 6% 25% 41% 27% 23 Moritz Wagner Michigan 6% 19% 45% 31% 24 Ray Spalding Louisville 6% 22% 37% 35% 25 Goga Bitadze Georgia 8% 28% 30% 34% 26 Donte DiVincenzo Villanova 7% 21% 38% 35% 27 Dzanan Musa Bosnia 7% 23% 49% 21% 28 Omari Spellman Villanova 8% 19% 37% 37% 29 Jalen Brunson Villanova 8% 20% 35% 37% 30 Khyri Thomas Creighton 4% 20% 47% 30%

Underrated Players

Let’s identify some potential values in this year’s draft. Using Givony’s rankings as a proxy for the NBA’s consensus, we can find some players about whom our model strongly disagrees with the general opinion.

De’Anthony Melton, G, USC (Analytics Rank: 13, Scout: 24)

Rated 24th by Givony, Melton is the seventh-most likely All-Star in this year’s draft, according to our model. While an efficient college player, his projection based on the combine and AAU rank sixth- and fourth-best in this draft class, respectively. Though 20 years old, our numbers suggest he has a similar skill set to Kyle Lowry and a similar projection to what Terry Rozier, who ranked 14th in our 2015 projections, had using this system.

Keita Bates-Diop, PF, Ohio State (Analytics: 15, Scout: 29)

He’s 22, and if you’re going to be an elite NBA player, you don’t typically enter the draft two years into your 20s. Some guys develop later, and Bates-Diop had a phenomenal year at Ohio State in which he ranked highly in scoring efficiency, took great care of the ball despite high usage and was among the better shot blockers in college. His body measurements are easy to overlook compared to the record-breaking wingspan of Mo Bamba, but he has low body fat and good strength for someone of his size, setting him up favorably for facing bigger bodies in the NBA.

Kostas Antetokounmpo, SF, Dayton (Analytics: 31, Scout: 58)

Another Greek Freak? While the younger brother of the Milwaukee Bucks‘ superstar did not make a ton of noise in college, he quietly has top 30 projections in our NCAA, combine, international and AAU models (and 31st in our overall model). Kostas is an efficient scorer and elite shot blocker; perhaps he’ll also end up a late bloomer like his older brother, Giannis.

Honorable Mentions: Jevon Carter, West Virginia; Mitchell Robinson; Jarred Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Overrated Players

Lonnie Walker IV, G, Miami (Analytics: 33, Scout: 13)

If our NBA draft model had emotions, it would be utterly perplexed by the consensus feeling on Walker as a borderline lottery candidate. Aside from the scouts’ evaluation of Walker, it sees no empirical evidence that suggests the former Miami guard ought to be selected that high. He ranks 62nd in the NCAA production model, with opponent-adjusted shooting and assist numbers that don’t move the needle. And he had no real impact on the boards. Our AAU model thinks he’s fine (rank: 25th) and his combine measurable don’t jump off the page (20th), so our overall model finds it hard to believe he should be drafted in the teens.

Elie Okobo, PG, France (Analytics: 73, Scout: 21)

In order for our model to think a player from the French LNB Pro A 0- which Fran Fraschilla ranked as the seventh-best international league back in December — is worthy of being a first-round pick, the prospect in question would likely have had to dominate the French league. Okobo did not. There was some production as a playmaker and he has the ability to shoot from beyond the arc, but he did not blow away his competition the way Doncic did in a better league. Add in the fact that Okobo is nearly 21, and our model remains skeptical of his translation to the NBA.

Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA (Analytics: 41, Scout: 22)

Though there are aspects of Holiday’s game that are appealing — his ability to score from the field including from 3, where he is an efficient shooter — there are some concerns for Holiday on both ends of the court. Though he may turn out to be an effective defender, that skill did not translate to his numbers last season, where he was middling in steals and had an abysmal individual defensive rating. To be fair to Holiday, the porous defense surrounding him may have played a large role in those numbers. But offensively, he turned the ball over quite a bit, especially considering that the Pac-12 defenses weren’t nearly as tough as those of, say, the Big 12.

Honorable mentions: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kentucky; Grayson Allen, Duke; Josh Okogie, Georgia Tech

NBA Draft Projections, Players 31-91

Rank Name College/Country All-Star Starter Role Player Bust 31 Kostas Antetokounmpo Dayton 4% 25% 46% 24% 32 Isaac Bonga Germany 6% 28% 38% 28% 33 Lonnie Walker IV Miami 4% 19% 47% 30% 34 Kenrich Williams TCU 4% 18% 41% 37% 35 Malik Newman Kansas 6% 20% 39% 35% 36 Kevin Hervey Texas Arlington 4% 16% 46% 34% 37 Tony Carr Penn State 6% 19% 39% 37% 38 Trevon Duval Duke 6% 21% 34% 39% 39 Kevin Huerter Maryland 4% 23% 45% 28% 40 Chandler Hutchison Boise State 3% 14% 44% 38% 41 Aaron Holiday UCLA 4% 20% 40% 36% 42 Melvin Frazier Tulane 3% 18% 45% 34% 43 Gary Trent Jr Duke 4% 17% 43% 36% 44 Brandon McCoy UNLV 3% 24% 35% 38% 45 Landry Shamet Wichita State 5% 14% 31% 50% 46 Chimezie Metu USC 3% 17% 45% 36% 47 Grayson Allen Duke 3% 18% 42% 37% 48 Alize Johnson Missouri State 2% 15% 39% 44% 49 Devonte’ Graham Kansas 3% 17% 34% 47% 50 Bruce Brown Miami 3% 15% 41% 42% 51 Josh Okogie Georgia Tech 4% 17% 44% 35% 52 Anfernee Simons IMG Academy 2% 17% 42% 38% 53 Shake Milton SMU 2% 15% 38% 44% 54 Theo Pinson North Carolina 3% 14% 38% 44% 55 Jerome Robinson Boston College 2% 15% 39% 44% 56 Gary Clark Cincinnati 3% 15% 34% 48% 57 Rawle Alkins Arizona 2% 14% 42% 43% 58 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk Kansas 2% 15% 43% 40% 59 Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 4% 15% 33% 48% 60 DJ Hogg Texas A&M 2% 12% 47% 39% 61 Hamidou Diallo Kentucky 2% 15% 44% 39% 62 Keenan Evans Texas Tech 2% 16% 36% 45% 63 Vincent Edwards Purdue 2% 11% 44% 43% 64 Devon Hall Virginia 2% 11% 39% 48% 65 Doral Moore Wake Forest 3% 20% 30% 48% 66 Justin Jackson Maryland 3% 13% 44% 40% 67 Allonzo Trier Arizona 4% 9% 37% 50% 68 George King Colorado 2% 9% 33% 57% 69 William McDowell-White Australia 5% 19% 32% 45% 70 Issuf Sanon Ukraine 2% 15% 35% 48% 71 Isaac Haas Purdue 1% 15% 34% 50% 72 Rodions Kurucs Latvia 2% 11% 50% 38% 73 Elie Okobo France 2% 11% 52% 36% 74 Brian Bowen NA 3% 12% 41% 44% 75 Jaylen Barford Arkansas 3% 7% 35% 55% 76 Arnoldas Kulboka Lithuania 2% 11% 48% 39% 77 Gabriel Galvanini Brazil 3% 11% 38% 47% 78 Yago Dos Santos Brazil 6% 11% 28% 55% 79 Matas Jogela Lithuania 2% 14% 40% 44% 80 Billy Preston United States 2% 15% 32% 52% 81 Tadas Sedekerskis Lithuania 1% 8% 42% 48% 82 Yante Maten Georgia 2% 6% 28% 64% 83 MiKyle McIntosh Oregon 1% 10% 31% 58% 84 Karim Jallow Germany 1% 8% 42% 48% 85 Tryggvi Hlinason Iceland 5% 8% 24% 62% 86 Dakota Mathias Purdue 3% 8% 26% 64% 87 Melvyn Govindy France 4% 11% 27% 58% 88 Amine Noua France 1% 4% 36% 59% 89 Aleksandar Lazic Bosnia 1% 6% 37% 55% 90 Vanja Marinkovic Serbia 0% 2% 35% 63% 91 Georgios Kalaitzakis Greece 0% 1% 6% 92%

Methodology

Our projections try to estimate the distribution of possible Box Plus-Minus (BPM) values in a prospect’s second through fifth seasons in the NBA. This covers the four years of team control for each rookie and the first year of his second contract. Why omit rookie years? They are often outliers in a player’s performance. For each player we have an average projection, and the chances a player becomes an all-star, starter, role player, or bust in the NBA. These breakdowns derive from historically looking at how good the BPM in this period was for future all-stars, starters, role-players, and NBA busts. Based on career lengths for each of these categories, there are about 2.7 all-stars per draft, 13.5 non all-star starters, and 24.4 role/bench players.

Last season we had a model that combined scouts’ rankings with a player’s pace and opponent adjusted statistics from the last two seasons of his college career. For international players we had a similar model that used the scout’s rankings and his box scores from playing overseas. One problem with the international players is that with so few data points in comparison, it is hard to have very good predictions. That is why this year we made five different models and then predictively averaged the results for each player to come up with an aggregate prediction. Some quick details on information used in each model:

Scout rankings are based on ESPN draft expert’s rankings (Chad Ford 2000-2010, Jonathan Givony 2011-2018).

The NCAA and AAU/FIBA Juniors models considered opponent-adjusted per possession box score statistics and composite statistics like individual rating and win shares.

International statistics include the information above and consider the strength of the league.

The combine information is based on body measurements like height, weight, wingspan and body fat percentage relative to position.

Accuracy

While there are many ways to judge accuracy, this particular model uses all players drafted in 2013 and prior to estimate what is and is not predictive to NBA success. Since those players were part of the “experiment” so to say, it is not fair to say we predicted them correctly (like taking a test with an answer sheet). Although those drafted 2014-2017 have not finished the first five years of their NBA careers, we can see how the model is doing so far and compare that to how scouts do.

Scouting rankings | Draft order | Analytics rankings

So far, our model has done a better job at identifying top talent and has less noise. This is expected since we are using draft analysts as part of our model, using their rankings as an input. No one is a perfect talent evaluator, not even an analytics-based model, but by using analytics a team can increase the chance it selects an all-star at the top of the draft and decrease the chance it lands a complete bust.

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.

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flauntpage · 6 years

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Sixers Draft Prospects: #26 Overall

I think we hit on most of the guys who will be available at #10 earlier this week, so let’s go through some of the dudes who might be options at 26.

What are the Sixers looking for with this pick? Assuming you get Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, or a combo forward/wing depth type of guy at 10, I think you look for a bench scorer at 26. That seems to be the consensus based on most of the mocks out there, with some familiar names popping up.

I would also keep an eye out for a Joel Embiid backup, but the problem is that this draft is so top-heavy with big men that it creates this gap from the teens to the second round talent-wise. With Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson, and Wendell Carter among the top-10 projections, there really isn’t any center who falls into that 20-30 range. Omari Spellman might be available, but he’s seen as a power forward/tweener type at the next level. Mitchell Robinson didn’t play college ball and comes with a lot of question marks, while Robert Williams is probably off the board by then.

With that said, here are some of are some of the scorers who might be worth a look at 26:

Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State)

The 2018 Big Ten player of the year is a 6’7″, 230-ish pound positionless player with a big wingspan.

He’s an athletic swingman, viewed as a 3 and D guy at this level, a Buckeye who scored 19.8 PPG and added 8.7 rebounds during his redshirt junior year. He shot 48% overall and 35.9% from three, but really does a lot of different things well. That sets him up to be the ideal NBA role player, somebody who doesn’t excel at one specific skill necessarily but chips in in a variety of ways. Keep him focused on the defensive end and Brett Brown can mold him into a solid bench guy, someone who can slot in to that small forward role and do the requisite free-flowing offensive and defensive stuff that Robert Covington does.

He isn’t the quickest player out there but has an ideal body type for the next level and gives me a bit of a Mikal Bridges vibe with the way he moves around the court:

Dzanan Musa (Bosnia)

A 6’9″, 195 pound small forward playing for Cedevita Zagreb in Croatia where he average d19, 6, and 2 this season.

The 19 year old is seen as a streaky scorer with high offensive potential but defensive concerns. Put the ball in his hands and he’ll do good things with it. Ask him to run around and defend off-ball and he won’t really impress you. I don’t know if that’s a red flag that turns off the Sixers due to Brett Brown’s high value of defensive intensity and commitment. The thought is that he’ll become a better defender as he grows into his body and becomes familiar with the NBA game.

But he’s a fearless player already, a guy who isn’t afraid to take the big shot or drive to the lane or put the team on his shoulders. He won’t shy away from the spotlight and comes with an intangible competitive side that you really can’t teach.

Look at the film below and tell me if you don’t see a bit of Marco Belinelli and JJ Redick in this kid:

Donte DiVincenzo (Villanova)

You know him. He had a wonderful national title game and strong combine and now here he is, a late 1st round draft projection.

He does a little bit of everything – scoring, rebounding, assists, defense, a team-first kind of guy who really fit in well at Villanova. That resulted in averages of 13/5/3 in 29.3 minutes per game. He shot 48% overall and 40% from three.

Seems like the biggest knock against DiVincenzo is that people think he benefited from being overshadowed by Bridges and Jalen Brunson and not really having too much of the spotlight on him. Would he had been the same player as a leader with pressure on his shoulders, or did he skate by as a 6th man? I don’t know, but it won’t matter at the next level, where he’s projected to be a bench scorer or a solid role player in a starting lineup next to a superstar or two. He redshirted as a freshman, so he’s 21 years old already, but that’s fine. He’s also listed at 6’5″ but might be a little shorter than that, which would put him right around JJ Redick’s height for a shooting guard.

Either way, he looked fantastic at the combine and I think the Sixers could do much worse at 26:

Khyri Thomas (Creighton)

Thomas is a 6’3″ PG/SG hybrid and the Big East defensive player of the year.

He’s undersized, sure, but he has a really nice feel for the game, a ferocious on-ball defender and a smooth shooter who improved his stroke during three years at Creighton, hitting field goals at a 53.8% clip this year.

The funky thing about his body is that while he’s not that tall, he still has a 6’11” wing span, which is what makes him so good defensively. He’s small enough to stay low and compact but can still be very disruptive with those long arms. Combine that with the fact that he shot better than 40% from three this year and you’re looking at, yes, another 3 and D prospect for the Sixers’ second unit.

And that’s okay, because he isn’t much a facilitator or shot creator. He doesn’t have much of a mid-range game and isn’t going to blow by you on the perimeter at the next level, but I could see him developing into a defensive minded Avery Bradley-esque combo guard in the NBA:

Kevin Huerter (Maryland)

He wasn’t sure if he’d stay in the draft or not, but ended up hiring an agent and throwing his name in the hat.

Huerter was great for the Terps this year, a 19 year old, 6’7″ shooting guard who just does a lot of things really well. He’s a smart player with strong fundamentals and a good grip on the game. As a sophomore, he put up 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 34.4 minutes per game. He shot 50.3% and 41.7% from three, though only hit at a 75.8% clip from the foul line.

I caught a bit of him this year and was really impressed with how smooth his catch and shoot game is. He’d regularly spot up from 4 or 5 feet behind the three point line and just knock down shots with ease. Fluid motions, good mechanics, wide base, really just a ton to love about his offensive game.

Defensively he’s not bad, but only brings a 6’8″ wing span to that side of the floor. I’m not sure if he has the requisite upper body strength for the NBA level either. Scouts seem to think his lack of explosiveness on both sides of the court will hurt him at the next level, but this is a shooter’s league, and a guy with this kind of ability will find a role on most teams:

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thesportssoundoff · 7 years

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“A Solid Night Of Fights From Nassau” A UFC on Fox 25 Preview

Joey

July 18th

As we hit the middle event in this INSANE stretch of UFC shows from July to early August, we find ourselves looking a Fox card that feels similar to every other event we've gotten so far this year. There are no "big names" on it outside of the main event but all of these fights are evenly matched, competitive on paper and have the potential to be exciting outside of a few fights. The main card has three REALLY good fights on it and one snoozer while the Fox prelims are not bad and are anchored by two good welterweight fights, this card REALLY, REALLY shines on the Fight Pass portion where every fight is really good. So what's really here on a good card without a great fight to stand on? Well.....

Fights: 13

Debuts: 2 (Junior Albini, Eryk Anders)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 3 (Eryk Anders IN, Alessio Di Chirico OUT vs Rafael Natal/Christian Colombo OUT, Chase Sherman IN vs Damien Grabowski, Chan Sung Jung vs Ricardo Lamas moved to UFC 214)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 9 (Chris Weidman, Kelvin Gastelum, Patrick Cummins, Dennis Bermudez, Gian Villante, Thomas Almeida, Rafael Natal, Ryan LaFlare, Alex Oliveira)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 4 (Rafael Natal, Chris Wade, Damien Grabowski, Chris Weidman)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 7* (Darren Elkins, Jimmie Rivera, Elizeu Zaleski, Ryan LaFlare, Jeremy Kennedy, Marlon Vera, Shane Burgos)

*Two fighters are on unbeaten streaks (Gastelum and Alex Oliveira) but they have no decisions which snap it from being a winning streak, Gastelum for weed and Oliveira due to a no contest via illegal knee*

Stat Monitor for 2017:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 17-19)- Eryk Anders, Junior Albini

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 12-20)- Eryk Anders, Chase Sherman

Second Fight (Current number: 21-21)- Brian Kelleher,

Cage Corrosion (3-3)- Lyman Good

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Do we need to really reconsider Kelvin Gastelum's chances at making a run at the 185 lbs in the aftermath of Robert Whittaker's stunning win over Yoel Romero? Whittaker proved that a young great athlete who can stuff takedowns can overcome the perceived size and strength difference at 185 lbs. Gastelum thus far at 185 lbs has shown that what made him work at 170 lbs (the solid striking, great offensive an ddefensive wrestling, killer chin) has made the move up with him and given his age and the gym he trains at, there's no doubt that the ceiling is the roof as one would say. There are obvious strength concerns given that he's not a massive 185er but he gave ALL kinds of problems to a very strong Tim Kennedy. The caveat is that Kennedy was coming off an immense layoff and that in turn is where the questions amplify. Gastelum's had four fights at 185 lbs; Johny Hendricks at a CW, Tim Kennedy off a layoff and the cooked corpses of Nate Marquardt (which remains a solid enough win with the benefit of hindsight given Nate's competitiveness recently) and Vitor Belfort. Even if he beats Weidman, there will be those who look only at the L's on his record and not the quality of competition Weidman's faced. To me, this is the sort of fight that goes a long way towards determining Gastelum's upside at 185 lbs even if I'd bet he's going to be a star at the 175 lb level when that division gets created.

2- Chris Weidman has lost three in a row but let's be mindful of the quality of competition here. Luke Rockhold is a very good and perhaps even great fighter, Yoel Romero is top 3 in the division and Gegard Mousasi was an awful no good stylistic matchup for him plus arguably a top 5-7 fighter at 185 lbs. Weidman was competitive in every single one of those fights but his cardio has frequently abandoned him in times of need and his chin and toughness can only take him so far.

3- How many times does Weidman have to gas out in the third or fourth round of a fight before he realizes that the cut to 185 is a stupid one?

4- So what necessarily pray tell is the reason why Dennis Bermudez vs Darren Elkins is co-maining over Jimmie Rivera vs Thomas Almeida? The winner of the latter is potentially a #1 contender whereas the former is probably going to be a pretty damn wacky fight.

5- Darren Elkins went over 12 UFC fights without getting a bonus. With one POTNB and a great comeback, he is co-maining on Fox. Sometimes it truly only takes one fight to change a narrative.

6- Jimmie Rivera vs Thomas Almeida is a great fight to test both guys as they look to potential sneak behind Dominick Cruz as an option for the 135 lb title picture. Rivera is back to being a decisionator but I don't think any of his fights were boring if I had to be honest with ya. It's almost like the Cruz era at 135 lbs where the fights were never bad but the finishes just never came. The opposite is true with Almeida who seems to live and die with the chaos he brings each fight out. Rivera's brief moments of trouble in his career have come from guys who can catch him down the middle with straight shots that buzz him whereas as we've seen with Almeida consistently, catching him cold and when he's being this wild reckless brawler gives you a serious chance at the upset.

7- It feels like Pat Cummins has fought everyone at 205 except for Jon Jones, right?

8- Elizeu Zaleski is one of those fighters who seems to be well worth keeping an eye on as the 170 lb division continues to undergo a very slow yet noticeable aging process. He's 30 years old with 3 UFC fights under his belt including two ridiculous brawls with Keita Nakamura and everybody's favorite bald madman Omari Akhmedov. Zaleski is a marvel on the feet but his takedown defense has shown incremental improvement with each passing fight, including surviving some wild scrambles with the always dangerous Keita Nakamura. He's facing Lyman Good in the main prelim in what should be another test of his wrestling chops.

9- Keeping up with the idea of a very bunched up 170 lb division; I wonder if Ryan Laflare might be a touch underrated by people. His wins are over very reputable guys like Mike Pierce, Roan Carneiro, Santiago Ponzinibbio (!) and Court McGee. He's probably not the most thrilling fighter (he's been in the UFC seven fights and has zero finishes) but he's a good fighter who shows improvement each time out and, as noted, 170 is getting old and crusty pretty quickly.

10- Why is Damian Grabowski still in the UFC? What is his primary function in the org?

11- Is Dennis Bermudez underrated at this point in his UFC career? We're talking about a guy who has beaten the likes of Max Holloway, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Jimmy Hettes and Rony Jason. Similarly his losses are to very poor stylistic matchups. We're talking about guys who can eat his power, stuff his takedowns and finish him when they inevitably rock him. Not thinking there are a lot of dudes in this division who can do that.

12- Lemme sell you on this prelims right quick. Jeremy Kennedy vs Kyle Bochniak is not a bad fight, pitting two under 30 featherweights coming off a win who matchup well on paper. Brian Kelleher vs Marlon Vera is an AWESOME fight pitting a solid MMA veteran vs a super athletic long lanky fighter who has a knack for the dramatic. Shane Burgos vs Godofredo Pepey is a truly solid fight well worthy of a main card spot on a card when you consider Pepey's first round sparks vs Burgos' power, chin and relentless pressure. Then you got Tim Johnson vs Junior Albini and I'm not about to sell you on that one other than to say "It'll be a thing for sure." Chris Wade vs Frankie Perez is a decent fight featuring two competent lightweights looking to find themselves.

Must Win

1- Kelvin Gastelum

The UFC is not and will never release Chris Weidman. He's the guy who beat Anderson Silva and will forever have a name and a secure legacy on that lone. He'd be given opportunity after opportunity to find a place be it at 185 lbs or 205 lbs. A win over Chris Weidman would be massive in vaulting Kelvin Gastelum into the top 5 at 185 lbs and, again, we've SEEN big 170ers have great success at 185 lbs. Gastelum could certainly be the next in line if he beats Weidman.

2- Jimmie Rivera

Rivera has been in some very exciting fights and he's put on some good performances. At the same time, 135 lbs is such that fight finishers, exciting ones at that, will always leapfrog the dudes who seem to struggle in that regard. Win or lose, Almeida's youth, exciting fighting style, finishing quality and just all around total package will guarantee him a "always just on the outside of title contention" burn. On the other hand, Rivera has beaten way better competition (sseriously, Almeida's top win in the UFC is Brad Pickett and given where Pickett was at the time, he's probably on par with Marcus Brimage) but in fights that are good but not the "keep 'em talking!" style Almeida has. Rivera's BIGGEST fear has to be that he turns into Aljamain Sterling; a talented guy who fans don't see as exciting in a division that is bubbling with big exciting fight finishers. That's the concern here.

3- Elizeu Zaleski

Brazilian WW prospects flaming out is not a new development for the UFC. Zaleski has a chance to really be different in that regard. Offensively on the feet, he's a whirling dervish of a dynamo and slowly but surely, his ground game is evolving. He'll never be Maia but there's progress and sometimes that's what counts. I'm n ot going to lie and act like he's going to turn into Anderson Silva but maybe Zaleski becomes an Erick Silva type with higher upside. To do that he's gotta pass another wrestling test with Lyman Good. Good isn't on the level of Nakamura in terms of his wrestling/grappling chops but he's better than Nicholas Dalby who beat Zalesaki on the back of a few clutch takedowns. It's a big fight.

Five Underlying Themes

1- Can the UFC sell Gastelum? Fight wise, he's amazing. On the other hand, he's a dude who has missed weight and failed drug tests in the past. If he beats Weidman (which to me is certainly possible), I just don't know what they do with him.

2- Will this card be the top rated Fox event thus far?

3- Which gets advertised more; UFC 214 or McGregor-Mayweather?

4- Will Grunt Style be advertised on the top of the cage like it was for DWTCS?

5- If the Almeida/Rivera winner is positioned as a potential #1 contender.

#MMA #UFC #Fox #Weidman #Gastelum

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