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#me having grown up knowing actual Buffett heads
lulabo · 8 months
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RIP, tumblr’s fave Jurassic World extra, guy running from pterodactyls with two margaritas in hand, you will always be famous. Hope you find those salt shakers.
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January Learning Journal - 1
2021′s Theme: Perfection  Part 1 - From My Daily Reflections Journal 
Psychology - Dealing with Others:  1. Be more patient with others - How do I do that? A blog post suggested that I 1) make myself wait; 2) stop doing things that are less important; 3) be mindful of the things making you impatient; 4) take a deep breath >> Maybe these tips work, but I’ve noticed that diverting my attention also works - because I do not realize that I am waiting for something anymore.  2. Do not argue or fight with others - Most of the time, you can’t change somebody else’s opinions. Even if you do, why does it matter that this person is smarter? He/she won’t even appreciate you for it. It’s completely a waste of your own time.  3. Do not stay with a person if you don’t want to - This is very obvious from another person’s perspective, but it was not clear to me at all when I was dating Frank. Our relationship was like hell - we fought all the time. Living with him brought a lot of conflict. >> Moving out takes courage, but it’s worth it - peace saves your time. >> This time, going back to Shanghai, I need to 1. mail things back home; 2. stay in Nanjing for a while; 3. look for a new Airbnb to live when coming back; 4. stay out in a café/library as long as possible; You are everything you need.  4. Do not believe that you know how the other person thinks - Honestly, you aren’t even sure what you think half of the time. Do not just guess what the other person meant based on his or her behavior. Ask, communicate, smile. Do not be afraid. 
Psychology - Habits: 1. Risk-taking behavior - I chose to take on a ranked game on Jan. 1st, when I could’ve chosen a matched game, which I could exit at any point. As a result, I became very dizzy because of playing the game on the taxi. It’s bizarre that I made such a choice when I knew it was not going to end well. >> Therefore, I need to make “a man of caution” a habit. >> What does that mean? Think about possible risks and things that could go wrong before planning your day, week, or even month. Be honest with yourself.  2. Play less game/social medias, Read more news - It’s fairly easy for me to give up games when I started interning - a change of environment is important - it’s like going to a rehab. >> Therefore, set up an environment where I could absorb news better - playing the news as background music when I eat + read more successful people’s habits (Warren Buffett’s daily habit of reading five newspaper) 3. Be flexible with your habits - yes, you have 30+ habits to complete each day, but you don’t have to do all of it in full length; remember to be flexible with your plans - the point is to repeat! 4. Do not ignore the things you don’t understand - if you don’t understand something, take some notes; you need to remember what you don’t know and try to solve it later; if you keep ignoring, you will never grow.  5. Do not own an opinion before you have the majority of facts - Like Charlie Munger said, if you can’t answer possible oppositions, you can’t really defend your own opinions; practice reverse thinking, what would a person who’s against my opinion say? Don’t jump into conclusion just to show off your intellect.
Psychology - Personal Finances: 1. If you’re buying a lot of things (more than 3), ask yourself if you really need that many items - Sometimes you may need them for an upgrade, but most of the time you’re just in consumerism’s trap. Ask yourself if it’s really necessary. 
Physiology - Health: 1. Do not indulge myself in sleep - sometimes sleeping more feels more horrible than sleeping less or feeling sleepy >> Do something energizing to wake myself up - jump up and down, exercising, drink some water, read some celebrities news, watch videos - the last two are more addicting than energizing.  2. Stomach Sickness - Do not eat raw food in China (cook it longer in the hotpot); Do not eat food that’s very spicy; Do not eat too much (Eating less is better than eating more); Do not drink too much alcohol - maybe just pretend drinking alcohol.  3. UTI - I’ve gotten UTI multiple times in the past. I’ve finally cured it this time - taking the medicine up to ten days really cleared the things up; remember to always wash yourself and the person who you’re sleeping with - before and after sex; drink a lot of water everyday 
Work-Related:  1. Set up some routines at your workplace - Do not just work, work, work - you’re not Rihanna. For example, when you arrive at the office, fill up your water bottle; after lunch, go to the bathroom to put more lipstick on, have some eye drop; rest and get up to walk a bit every hour or two.  2. Focus on your task wastes less energy than browsing on the internet - this is a hard lesson to learn - when I actually focus and try to enjoy my work, I feel less tired at the end of the day.   3. Do no complain about anyone or any work - 1. the person would probably know; 2. you don’t know the full story. If you do have to complain, complain to your friends, or your mother, do not complain to your coworkers.  4. Always triple-check things before you submit - if you feel that you’re rushing towards the finish line, please calm down and check everything; try to divert your attention before checking so that you’re more calm.  5. Do not let laziness (browsing the internet) become a habit - It’s easy to escape from what we really want to accomplish, but it’s not what we desire in the long-term. Remember why you came to work/intern in the first place; take a hard look on yourself to see if you’ve really grown.  6. Do not go the hard way, go the smart way - Your boss does not care how much time you spend on each task; he or she only cares about the results >> therefore, you should be proud that you spend minimal time on a task instead of maximal time.  7. Keep your habits even if it seems like a waste of time - When you’re really tired of work, and you’re in emotional distress, restore your habits to retrieve some balance and sanity in your life. It may sound like a waste of time in your head, but that’s what brings back energy (You can always do the 2-min version of your habits). 
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Love, Natalie
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theentiregdtime · 5 years
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dennis buys a boat.
PHILADELPHIA, PA 5:00 ON A FRIDAY
"Look, Mac, I don't- I can't even comprehend what you're saying right now. How can you possibly not be excited about this? Are- Are you even human?"
"It's not that it's not cool, dude! I just- When you called me down here and said you were gonna blow my mind, I- How did this even happen?"
"It happened because I'm a genius, goddamn it, now are you going to get in or should I call Charlie instead?"
"No, I'm sorry, man! Look, don't call Charlie, I'll get in the boat."
Dennis is a visionary and Mac is a fool. Dennis is the king of the Delaware and Mac is a Hessian cretin. Dennis is... he's fucking Poseidon and Mac is but a lowly fish.
Mac could have come down here to the marina, chanted about how 'awesome' this was (he calls everything awesome!), and been goddamn Nerites. Not that he would have allowed him to take the reigns of this supercharged chariot, but still! Alas, he doesn't get the boat, not like Dennis does, so now he's just a fish.
Still, though, it feels good.
Dennis is stood aboard a 2007 Sea-Doo Challenger, of which he is now the proud owner, perched with his hands on his hips like a navy-clad demigod. The warm sun is shining down on his back, the speakers are blaring Steve Winwood's The Finer Things, and Dennis Reynolds is on top of the world, baby!
"So like," Mac says tentatively as he steps in, "where did you even get this? Last night you told me we couldn't afford two orders of fried rice."
A self-satisfied smirk twists  Dennis' mouth.
"How does anyone get anything, Mac?" he responds, dipping his sunglasses down to flash his eyes. "The world's not about money. It's about charm."
"That makes absolutely no sense, dude."
He's not certain why he expected someone like Mac to understand. He hadn't exactly grown up with the same... entitlements as Dennis had. His idea of recreation as a child was poking dead things with a stick and throwing rocks. As a matter of fact, he had probably thrown rocks at boats! The savage.
But Charlie would have gotten sewage and toothpaste and cheese and other mystery stains all over the vinyl, and Dee would have ripped a hole in the seat with her goddamn jagged bird arms.
Mac was the obvious choice. He was usually such a fantastic hype-man, and Dennis would be lying if he said he wasn't disappointed at the lack of enthusiasm here.
"That's because you don't have any charm, Mac," he retorts as he sidles into the captain's chair, curving his fingers around the steering wheel. "You tumble into rooms and knock things over and spit when you yell like the damned Tasmanian Devil."
"Be that as in May," -that's not the phrase, but Dennis doesn't interject- "I get stuff through the power of intimidation."
Mac plops himself down, rather gracelessly, in the passenger seat.
"When has that ever happened? And don't say the time you 'intimidated' that man at the mall into giving you a free massage, because I hate to break it to ya', but that's not what that was, buddy."
He pouts so overdramatically that his frown reaches his chin.
"Hey. I'm tough, Dennis," he persists, and per usual, appears to genuinely believe it. "But don't worry, that doesn't overshadow your charm thing!" Mac's smile perks back up and he reaches out to brush his knuckles against Dennis' shirt. "Like, you look way better in sweaters than I do, man."
It's not so much a sweater as it is a nautical polyester zip-up pullover, but hey, he does look good in it- so he'll let that slide.
"Okay, okay, just... shut up and hold onto something, all right?" Dennis rolls his eyes, but there's an excited sneer forming on the edges of his lips.
He screws the safety key around his wrist onto the slot until it clicks into place. Mac would say something along the lines of 'safety is for bozos' before surely setting himself on fire or plummeting off of a rooftop, but Dennis will not be murdered by his own boat like some sort of seafaring Cronus.
He gives a quick wink to- well, not so much Mac, more to the boat- before adjusting the trim and wrapping a hand around the throttle.
"Prepare to have your mind blown."
Before Mac can ruin the moment, Dennis sends the throttle forward. The dock is relatively clear, so he's out on the water doing 45 in no time. He leans back in his seat to catch a glimpse of his reflection in the rearview mirror (shame it's so small) just as the song tells him about the golden things life could be, and yeah, he looks pretty damn cool. Obviously, Mac must think so, too. Not that he cares.
He darts his eyes over to see if Mac is looking at him.
And oh man, is Mac looking at him.
But not like he's admiring how 'awesome' he is or thinking about how he wishes he could be so goddamn glorious- not like that at all. It's like he's just happy to be out here with him for no other reason than to be here. He's got this stupid little grin on his face... The nerve!
Dennis focuses his gaze back on the river.
Well, if anyone with half a brain is watching him, they will certainly admire how cool he is.
After a half-hour or so of going near-60 (perhaps to show off, perhaps not...), Dennis kicks it back down for a while, and they coast along the river maintaining a comfortable speed over which they can actually hear each other speak. Dennis can hear the music again, too, Wouldn't It Be Nice bamp-bamp-bamping through its last chorus.
Part of him regrets it, because Mac immediately shifts in his seat and starts babbling, like he's just been wriggling anxiously, waiting for an opportunity to speak. He gets that way, after they haven't talked in a while- a day, an hour, fifteen minutes- like he has to tell Dennis every single thought that's gone through his head in the meantime.
"Hey, what do you think fish think about?" he asks.
Dennis' eyebrows tense. He rolls his teeth over his lip. "What?"
Mac seems offended, as if the question were self-explanatory. "You know, fish," he reiterates.
"That isn't the part I was confused about."
That answer doesn't satisfy him, and Dennis can feel his stare burning a hole into the side of his head without even having to look. He's like a child.
Rick Astley is pumping through the speakers now, and Mac is totally ruining it.
"I don't know, Mac, what do you think about all day?" he deadpans.
The connection to Mac having the brain of a common herring flies right up the windshield and over his head. "Oh, uh-" he starts excitedly, "like, the bar, ideas for stunts, who would win in a fight between Dutch Schaefer and John McClane, you, french fries, whether or not I could put a bear in a headlock, which I think I could if I got a running start-"
"You've made your point!" Dennis has to stop him, because he already knows all of this, and Dutch would obviously win because John is more stealth than muscle and Dutch clearly has experience with stealth. "I don't think fish think about fast food, which they have no access to, or whether or not you could fight a bear, because they don't know you and you cannot, or..."
Or me, Dennis just now registers. Did he really say that?
He shakes his head and dismisses it.
"I think they think about absolutely nothing! Some part of their tiny, gelatinous brain reminds them to move and to swallow smaller fish, but I can tell you with great confidence that there is nothing else. There is not some- some tangled, Desperate Housewives-esque drama playing itself out down there, damn it!"
Mac whistles through his teeth. "But, like... can you prove that? Can we be sure? Because science has only come so far-"
"Oh, I will not have this debate with you again!" Dennis inches his speed up just a bit in an effort to drown Mac out. "Are you determined to ruin fish for yourself by... by subscribing to the notion that they are capable of complex thought? You know how much fish we eat, Mac!"
"That's why I'm asking, dude!"
Dennis nudges the throttle up further, keeping his eyes trained on the water passing underneath them like sheets of polished glass.
"If they've got stuff going on up here," -he imagines Mac is pointing to his head, where quite clearly nothing is going on- "then maybe we should switch to duck or something, man!"
"Why- You- You think a duck thinks less than a fish?!" Dennis sputters.
He's almost up to 60 now.
"I'm not saying that for sure!" Mac transitions into shouting over the engine, the goddamn lunatic. "I'm just saying, flying back and forth every year seems like a waste of time!"
"Are you criticizing the migration of waterfowl?!"
"Well, why don't they just stay in the city, Dennis?! There's always food there!"
There's a rattling sound now, and Dennis assumes at first that it's a migraine forming from his teeth scraping together, but it's so loud and-
Ah, shit, it's the boat.
The needle on the speedometer starts creeping down despite the throttle being all the way up. Dennis adjusts it, as well as the trim, but the grinding only seems to intensify and the boat only gets slower. He checks to make sure the safety lanyard is still connected- which it is- and everything on the dash seems normal...
He can hear the music clearly once more. God, I wish I was sailing again, Jimmy Buffett mocks him.
"Uh, how much smoke is too much smoke for a boat?" Mac asks hesitantly. For once, it's actually a relevant question, and not some sort of riddle or existential crisis.
Dennis turns to look over his shoulder as the gauge creeps towards 20 and, yep, delightful, that's smoke.
"Did you suck something up?" he inquires rather stupidly.
"Yes, I absolutely did, and I did it on purpose," Dennis spits as he unhooks the lanyard and pulls the levers back down, "and you know what? I hope it was a fish, Mac, I hope it was the biggest, smartest fish in this entire goddamn river," -he hops up and paces towards the back, his heavy footsteps echoing off the sides of the boat- "with hopes and dreams and aspirations, a thousand times more superior than any duck! And I've just crushed it with the impeller like meat in a blender!"
"Why would you put meat in a...?"
Dennis rips the sunglasses from his face and tosses them to the floor. He doesn't know what else to take out his anger on.
"Is that the takeaway, Mac?!" he squawks, spinning back around to look at his idiotic fish face. This is why Poseidon is so engulfed with wrath all of the time! "Is that the one thing you choose to pick out of this entire situation?!"
Suddenly, Mac is on his feet and closing the distance between them. He has that pitying, holier-than-thou expression on his face, and for a moment, Dennis thinks he's going to pick a fight with him (and he would lose just like he'd lose to a bear!), until he feels steady hands clamp down on his shoulders.
"Den, listen to me," Mac says softly, lifting two fingers to point them back and forth between their eyes, "I'm with you. I'm on your side, man. Fish are stupid and they suck and we're gonna keep eating them, okay?" He lifts his palms to press them against Dennis' jaw. "But I need you to stay calm so we can figure this out."
Dennis should feel patronized and belittled, but he doesn't- he's simply stunned in place. His breathing is starting to steady, and he thinks he's nodding. Whatever Mac says or does next, he has a feeling he's going to believe him- even if he claims trout are capable of high-order thinking.
"Okay," is all he manages.
Mac parrots back, "Okay."
He gives Dennis a double-pat on the cheek before passing him to peer over the stern. There is utterly no chance he has any idea what he's looking at, but that doesn't stop him.
"Well, I don't see anything."
Ordinarily, Dennis would ask him what he expected to see- some sort of hook hand hanging off of the boat? Instead, he merely shrugs his shoulders.
He's oddly at peace with this. Jet-boating is kind of boring, anyways. It's nothing like a yacht, there are not nearly as many bachelorette parties waving to him as he'd envisioned, and there's next to nothing to see out here. There's a reason John McTiernan does not direct movies about flat water.
"I'm so sorry, Dennis," Mac apologizes, for some reason.
Now that they're floating sans engine, the smoke has died down, and there are no more ear-splitting scraping noises. Dennis would rather spend the night on this thing than hear that sound again- it's going to give him an even worse headache if he does.
"Just- open that up." Dennis gestures to one of the storage compartments.
Mac nods dutifully and does as requested, looking like he thinks it might lead to something he can repair. When it opens to a mound of ice and Coronas, he raises a surprised- but not displeased- eyebrow.
"Oh. All right."
Not two minutes later, they're sitting on the back row of the boat, beers in hand, having given up trying to remedy the situation. I'd Really Love To See You Tonight (absolute classic) is playing just as the sun is starting to set. They'll call for a tow once it gets dark- Dennis doesn't have the energy to think about it right now.
Mac's got his arm on the back of the seat, around Dennis, but not really touching him. There's much more space they could be utilizing, but this is fine. It makes it easier for Mac to open Dennis' beers for him, anyways.
"I think you should start paying for boats with money instead of charm, Den."
Dennis scoffs. He leans back onto Mac's arm as he takes another swig.
"I don't know..." he mutters, the ghost of a smile playing on his lips. You see, it really doesn't matter much to me, the speakers remind him. "This isn't so bad."
Mac chuckles through his nose. He doesn't object.
It's quiet for a while as Seals and Coley harmonize and Dennis polishes off the last of his drink. He discards the empty bottle, letting it roll until it meets up with his shattered sunglasses.
"You want me to get you another one?" Mac offers.
"No," he half-whispers and scoots a little closer- just to get comfortable. There's no sense in being uncomfortable.
Mac's hand rests on Dennis' shoulder, drawing him in gently.
"Okay," he whispers back.
He passes Dennis his own, half-empty beer. Without taking his eyes off of the sunset, Dennis takes a sip, then hands it back to Mac, who immediately does the same. They trade it back and forth a few times. Dennis hums I'm not talkin' 'bout moving in...
"Dennis?" Mac mumbles in his ear.
"... Yes?"
He could ask him anything in the world right now, and Dennis thinks he might give him a real, honest answer. He imagines the answer to a lot of those questions would be 'yes, I do, I'm just so scared to tell you'. He would really love to tell him tonight.
"How many pennies do think there are... in the river?"
Dennis takes another drink. He's too tired to argue. It's warm, the sky is amber-peach, the boat is rocking gently, Mac's arm is around him, there's a warm wind blowing, the stars are out, and I'd really love to see you tonight.
Dennis sighs.
"Just pennies," he replies, passing the beer back, "or are we talking all change?"
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Pumpkin Quotes
Official Website: Pumpkin Quotes
  “Only write what you know” is very good advice. I do my best to stick to it. I wrote about gods and dreams and America because I knew about them. And I wrote about what it’s like to wander into Faerie because I knew about that. I wrote about living underneath London because I knew about that too. And I put people into the stories because I knew them: the ones with pumpkins for heads, and the serial killers with eyes for teeth, and the little chocolate people filled with raspberry cream and the rest of them. – Neil Gaiman
In a clutch or a corner, I tend to make a weapon out of what is near at hand. That can be anything from a crowbar to a cat, though if I had a choice, I would prefer an angry cat, which I have found to be more effective than a crowbar. Although weaponless, I left the house by the back door, with two chocolate-pumpkin cookies. It’s a tough world out there, and a man has to armor himself against it however he can. ~Odd Thomas – Dean Koontz
Ah! on Thanksgiving day, when from East and from West, From North and South, come the pilgrim and guest, When the gray-haired New Englander sees round his board The old broken links of affection restored, When the care-wearied man seeks his mother once more, And the worn matron smiles where the girl smiled before. What moistens the lips and what brightens the eye? What calls back the past, like the rich pumpkin pie? – John Greenleaf Whittier
And all Halloween candy pales next to candy corn, if only because candy corn used to appear, like the Great Pumpkin, solely on Halloween. – Rosecrans Baldwin
And I Jack, the Pumpkin King, have grown so tired of the same old thing. – Tim Burton
And so, Thanksgiving. Its the most amazing holiday. Just think about it — it’s a miracle that once a year so many millions of Americans sit down to exactly the same meal as one another, exactly the same meal they grew up eating, and exactly the same meal they ate a year earlier. The turkey. The sweet potatoes. The stuffing. The pumpkin pie. Is there anything else we all can agree so vehemently about? I don’t think so. – Nora Ephron
Asleep by the Smiths Vapour Trail by Ride Scarborough Fair by Simon & Garfunkel A Whiter Shade of Pale by Procol Harum Dear Prudence by the Beatles Gypsy by Suzanne Vega Nights in White Satin by the Moody Blues Daydream by Smashing Pumpkins Dusk by Genesis (before Phil Collins was even in the band!) MLK by U2 Blackbird by the Beatles Landslide by Fleetwood Mac Asleep by the Smiths (again!) -Charlie’s mixtape – Stephen Chbosky
At last, small witches, goblins, hags, And pirates armed with paper bags Their costumes hinged on safety pins, Go haunt a night of pumpkin grins. – John Updike
Autumn. Pretty leaves, pumpkin pie and sweaters. Perfect weather for reading. Winter is great but I hate shoveling. – Eden Robinson
jQuery(document).ready(function($) var data = action: 'polyxgo_products_search', type: 'Product', keywords: 'pumpkin', orderby: 'rand', order: 'DESC', template: '1', limit: '68', columns: '4', viewall:'Shop All', ; jQuery.post(spyr_params.ajaxurl,data, function(response) var obj = jQuery.parseJSON(response); jQuery('#thelovesof_pumpkin').html(obj); jQuery('#thelovesof_pumpkin img.swiper-lazy:not(.swiper-lazy-loaded)' ).each(function () var img = jQuery(this); img.attr("src",img.data('src')); img.addClass( 'swiper-lazy-loaded' ); img.removeAttr('data-src'); ); ); );
Boston: Their hotels are bad. Their pumpkin pies are delicious. Their poetry is not so good. Edgar Allan Poe
But see, in our open clearings, how golden the melons lie; Enrich them with sweets and spices, and give us the pumpkin-pie! – Margaret Junkin Preston
Dark furrow lines grid the snow, punctuated by orange abacus beads of pumpkins – now the crows own the field. – John J. Geddes
Dear Great Pumpkin, Halloween is now only a few days away. Children all over the world await you coming. When you rise out of the pumpkin patch that night, please remember I am your most loyal follower. Have a nice trip. Don’t forget to take out flight insurance. – Charles M. Schulz
Do not be small minded. Do not pray for gourds and pumpkins from God, when you should be asking for pure love and pure knowledge to dawn within every heart.- Ramakrishna
Each year, the Great Pumpkin rises out of the pumpkin patch that he thinks is the most sincere. He’s gotta pick this one. He’s got to. I don’t see how a pumpkin patch can be more sincere than this one. You can look around and there’s not a sign of hypocrisy. Nothing but sincerity as far as the eye can see.- Charles M. Schulz
Eighteen luscuios scrumpitous flavors, Chocolate,Lime and Cherry Coffee,Pumpkin, Fudge-Banana, Caramel Cream and boysenberry. Rocky Road and Toasted Almond, Butterscotch,Vanilla Dip, Butter Brinkle, Apple Ripple,Coconut,and Mocha Chip, Brandy Peach and Lemon Custard. Each scoop lovely.smooth and round. Tallest cream cone in town lying there on the ground. – Shel Silverstein
Eric followed Vlad Tepes’s stubby finger, identifying me as the future Happy Meal. Then he stared at Dracula, looking up from his kneeling position. I couldn’t read his face at all, and I felt a stirring of fear. What would Charlie Brown have done if the Great Pumpkin wanted to eat the little red-haired girl? – Charlaine Harris
Even the weather seemed to be celebrating; as June approached, the days became cloudless and sultry, and all anybody felt like doing was strolling onto the grounds and flopping down on the grass with several pints of iced pumpkin juice, perhaps playing a casual game of Gobstones or watching the giant squid propel itself dreamily across the surface of the lake. – J. K. Rowling
Even where the land was more receptive, settlers soon learned to take some precautions before planting their vegetables. Maize and pumpkin seeds were soaked in water for several days and then blackened with tar before planting – the most effective way to deter rats, mice and birds. Bee Dawson
Every woman needs secrets,’ her mother said with a smile then, her eyes meeting Sally’s in the rearview mirror. ‘Remember that when you’re old like me, pumpkin, because the world has a way of making a woman’s life everyone else’s business–you have to dig out a little place that’s only yours. – J. Courtney Sullivan
‘Good Morning America’ exploited Joan Lunden’s pregnancy, but you won’t see me bringing my babies on the air. The only reason I’m talking about the babies at all is that they’ve been with me on the show since I became pregnant. After a while, I had to acknowledge this pumpkin tummy. – Jane Pauley
He gave me a look sure to put frost on anyone’s pumpkin.- Charlaine Harris
I don’t believe pumpkin pie is even made from pumpkin. I mean, how can something that smells that shitty make a pie so sweet? There’s not enough sugar in the universe. – Lewis Black
I feel like Cinderella sitting in the middle of the road with a pumpkin and a couple of mice, while Prince Charming charges off to rescue some other chick. – Cynthia Hand
I get more out of life just being myself, by just being a human being. Not by being a rock star, not by being whatever. Sometimes I act like a jerk, but I think people respect me for being myself. That’s the ultimate thing about the Smashing Pumpkins. – Billy Corgan
I grew up in the ’80s and ’90s listening to Public Enemy and Mobb Deep and the Smashing Pumpkins. I don’t even know what it was like in the ’60s – I wasn’t alive then – so the Mayer Hawthorne sound is taking what I can learn from the classics, and blending it with my hip-hop DJ and producer background and punk-rock bands that I played in as a kid. – Mayer Hawthorne
I haven’t taken my Christmas lights down. They look so nice on the pumpkin. – Winston Spear
I idolised bands like Pearl Jam and Smashing Pumpkins, who wanted to reach as many people as they could. Nate Ruess
I kept as still as I could. Nothing happened. I did not expect anything to happen. I was something that lay under the sun and felt it, like the pumpkins, and I did not want to be anything more. I was entirely happy. Perhaps we feel like that when we die and become a part of something entire, whether it is sun and air, or goodness and knowledge. At any rate, that is happiness; to be dissolved into something complete and great. When it comes to one, it comes as naturally as sleep. – Willa Cather
I like to make pies. Thats kind of my new obsession – peach, blueberry, apple, strawberry. I make a really good pumpkin pie with real pumpkin. – Morgan Saylor
I lost my virginity to a pumpkin when I was 23. Back then I was convinced I was actually a Vegetable, hell, that’s what the song is about. – Thom Yorke
I love the scents of winter! For me, it’s all about the feeling you get when you smell pumpkin spice, cinnamon, nutmeg, gingerbread and spruce. – Taylor Swift
I love the U.S. We came the first time in 2003, and it seems like we haven’t left since. James Iha from The Smashing Pumpkins came to Stockholm to see one of our shows, and he really fell in love with the band. He said, “I’m going to take you to America, I’m going to release you on my label.” When you’re in your early twenties and you get that kind of opportunity, you just gotta roll with it. – Maja Ivarsson
I mean you know at midnight everything is going to turn to pumpkins and mice; right? But if the evening goes along, I mean, you know, the guys look better all the time, the music sounds better, it’s more and more fun, you think why the hell should I leave at quarter of 12. I’ll leave at two minutes to 12. But the trouble is, there are no clocks on the wall. And everybody thinks they’re going to leave at two minutes to 12. – Warren Buffett
I never wanted to leave the Smashing Pumpkins. That was never the plan. – Billy Corgan
I represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic party. – Paul Wellstone
I saw thousands of pumpkins last night come floating in on the tide, bumping up against the rocks and rolling up on the beaches; it must be Halloween in the sea – Richard Brautigan
I see a girl caught in the remains of a holiday gone bad, with her flesh picked off day after day as the carcass dries out. The knife and fork are abviously middle-class sensibilities. The palm tree is a nice touch. A broken dream,perhaps? Plastic honeymoon, deserted island? Oh, If you put in a slice of pumpkin pie, it could be a desserted island! (Pg 64) -Laurie Halse Anderson
I sort of have a dark, twisted, offbeat way of writing, which I see coming up in my kids. It’s funny, on Halloween, one of my daughters said, “Halloween isn’t supposed to be happy, dad, it’s supposed to be dark. ” No smiling pumpkins at the Sixx household! – Nikki Sixx
I suppose I will die never knowing what pumpkin pie tastes like when you have room for it. – Robert Breault
I think people fetishize glasses in general. You could put glasses on a rotting pumpkin and people would think it was sexy. – Tina Fey
I was never able to get through Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness. I’ve never been able to make it through. And I love the Smashing Pumpkins, they’re one of my favorite bands ever, but I’ve never been able to listen to the whole thing all the way through. – John Wozniak
I went to Floridita on Wardour Street when I was 18. All I could afford was pumpkin soup and a glass of champagne, but it was worth it. – Karen Gillan
I would rather sit on a pumpkin and have it all to myself than be crowded on a velvet cushion. I would rather ride on earth in an ox cart, with a free circulation, than go to heaven in the fancy car of an excursion train and breathe a malaria all the way. Henry David Thoreau
I would rather sit on a pumpkin and have it all to myself, than be crowded on a velvet cushion. – Henry David Thoreau
I’m half-Japanese, so I collect toys, like a Yayoi Kusama stuffed pumpkin. – Nicola Formichetti
I’m not sure I would label it a ‘survivor,'” said Iko, her sensor darkening with disgust. “It looks more like a rotting pumpkin. Marissa Meyer
In November, the smell of food is different. It is an orange smell. A squash and pumpkin smell. It tastes like cinnamon and can fill up a house in the morning, can pull everyone from bed in a fog. Food is better in November than any other time of the year. – Cynthia Rylant
In the lives of children, pumpkins turn into coaches, mice and rats turn into men. When we grow up, we realize it is far more common for men to turn into rats.- Gregory Maguire
Instead of doing cinnamon, nutmeg, and all those baking spices I’ll have one spice that’s for sweets, and that’s pumpkin pie spice. – Sandra Lee
Is there a short-eared koobish, then?’ Mmmyes …’ said J.Lo. ‘But it is technically not really a koobish. Is more alike a kind of singing pumpkin.’ We had conversations like these all the time, where I just eventually gave up. – Adam Rex
It looks more like a rotting pumpkin. – Marissa Meyer
It was time to take the pumpkin out of the pot and eat it. In the final analysis, that was what solved these big problems of life. You could think and think and get nowhere, but you still had to eat your pumpkin. That brought you down to earth. That gave you a reason for going on. Pumpkin. – Alexander McCall Smith
It’s midnight Cinderella, but don’t worry none. Cause I’m Peter the Pumpkin Eater and the party’s just begun. – Garth Brooks
  Just wait and see, Charlie Brown. I’ll see the Great Pumpkin. I’ll SEE the Great Pumpkin! Just you wait, Charlie Brown. The Great Pumpkin will appear and I’ll be waiting for him. – Charles M. Schulz
Know what it is to be a child? It is to be something very different from the man of today. It is to have a spirit yet streaming from the waters of Baptism; it is to believe in belief; it is to be so little that elves can reach to whisper in your ear; it is to turn pumpkins into coaches, and mice into horses, lowness into loftiness, and nothing into everything, for each child had its fairy godmother in its soul. – Percy Bysshe Shelley
Lakes, June, Games
Like many indelible family memories, carving a pumpkin begins with someone grabbing a really sharp knife. – Dana Gould
Little brats yellin ‘Trick or Treat’ all through my screen door, When y’all should be at home sleep, Instead of at my front porch 15 deep. The jack o’ lantern came in handy… I can turn my porch light out like I ain’t got no candy. But ain’t that somethin? You buy a Halloween costume and a pumpkin, Almost gave your children a heart attack. It’s a tradition, but who the hell started that? Kam
Miraculously, smoke curled out of his own mouth, his nose, his ears, his eyes, as if his soul had been extinguished within his lungs at the very moment the sweet pumpkin gave up its incensed ghost. – Ray Bradbury
My father played guitar, so I always wanted to play for that reason. But I think the biggest reason was just the ’90s in general – growing up listening to the Smashing Pumpkins, Green Day and bands like that, and going to concerts and thinking it was the coolest thing in the world. – Jack Antonoff
My favorite word is ‘pumpkin.’ You can’t take it seriously. But you can’t ignore it, either. It takes ahold of your head and that’s it. You are a pumpkin. Or you are not. I am. – Harrison Salisbury
My kids just brought home a beautiful pumpkin, but you know what? I’m going to return it because it’s a Democratic pumpkin. It has the orange color of John Kerry’s tan, and the roundness of Teddy Kennedy. – Arnold Schwarzenegger
My most memorable meal is every Thanksgiving. I love the food: The turkey and stuffing; the sweet potatoes and rice, which come from my mother’s Southern heritage; the mashed potatoes, which come from my wife’s Midwestern roots; the Campbell’s green bean casserole; and of course, pumpkin pie. – Douglas Conant
October, baptize me with leaves! Swaddle me in corduroy and nurse me with split pea soup. October, tuck tiny candy bars in my pockets and carve my smile into a thousand pumpkins. O autumn! O teakettle! O grace! – Rainbow Rowell
Of the first achievements of the legislature was to institute a ten-thousand-dollar agricultural fair to show off forty dollars’ worth of pumpkins in – however, the territorial legislature was usually spoken of as the “asylum”. Mark Twain
On the moon we have everything. Lettuce, and pumpkin pie and Amanita phalloides. We have cat-furred plants and horses dancing with their wings. All the locks are solid and tight, and there are no ghosts. Shirley Jackson
Once a pumpkin, Always a pumpkin. – Billy Corgan
Pumpkin pie is a living symbol of mediocrity. The best pumpkin pie you ever ate wasn’t all that much different from the worst pumpkin pie you ever ate. – Garrison Keillor
Pumpkin spice lattes are egg nog for morning people. – John Oliver
Pumpkins are the only living organisms with triangle eyes. – Harland Williams
Raindrops the size of bullets thundered on the castle windows for days on end; the lake rose, the flower beds turned into muddy streams, and Hagrid’s pumpkins swelled to the size of garden sheds. – J. K. Rowling
Severus, please fetch me the strongest truth potion you posess, then go down to the kitchen and bring up the house elf called Winky. Minerva, kindly go down to Hagrids house where you will find a large black dog sitting in the pumpkin patch. Take the dog up to my office, tell him I will be with him shortly, then come back here. J. K. Rowling
She liked anything orange: leaves; some moons; marigolds; chrysanthemums; cheese; pumpkin, both in pie and out; orange juice; marmalade. Orange is bright and demanding. You can’t ignore orange things. She once saw an orange parrot in the pet store and had never wanted anything so much in her life. She would have named it Halloween and fed it butterscotch. Her mother said butterscotch would make a bird sick and, besides, the dog would certainly eat it up. September never spoke to the dog again — on principle. – Catherynne M. Valente
Smashing Pumpkins has never been a band about hit songs. – Billy Corgan
Some people are absolutely funny and you want to wish them Happy Thanksgiving in funniest way possible. Here is the list of Funny Thanksgiving sayings. Just chose the quote you want to wish that person. Vegetables are a must on a diet. I suggest carrot cake, zucchini bread and pumpkin pie. – Jim Davis
Sometimes I think that ideas float through the atmosphere like huge squishy pumpkins, waiting for heads to drop on. – Neil Gaiman
Thanksgiving is a magical time of year when families across the country join together to raise America’s obesity statistics. Personally, I love Thanksgiving traditions: watching football, making pumpkin pie, and saying the magic phrase that sends your aunt storming out of the dining room to sit in her car. – Stephen Colbert
The coach has turned into a pumpkin and the mice have all run away. – Lady Bird Johnson
The first real concert, other than going with my dad to see Three Dog Night, was Smashing Pumpkins and Garbage. I was fourteen or fifteen. I liked Shirley Manson because she reminded me of Annie Lennox. They both have these deep, sexy, powerful alto voices. – Amy Lee
The ideology of the Smashing Pumpkins was ultimately more valuable than the music of the Smashing Pumpkins. That’s what critics can’t put their finger on. – Billy Corgan
The mask can be a limitation, but you just deal with it. You do get superhuman strength and pumpkin bombs and all this other stuff to express yourself with.’ – Willem Dafoe
The mellow sweetness of pumpkin pie off a prison spoon is something you will never forget. – Mitchell Burgess
The near end of the street was rather dark and had mostly vegetable shops. Abundance of vegetables – piles of white and green fennel, like celery, and great sheaves of young, purplish, sea-dust-coloured artichokes . . . long strings of dried figs, mountains of big oranges, scarlet large peppers, a large slice of pumpkin, a great mass of colours and vegetable freshness. . . . D. H. Lawrence
The past was a consumable, subject to the national preference for familiar products. And history, in America, is a dish best served plain. The first course could include a dollop of Italian in 1492, but not Spanish spice or French sauce or too much Indian corn. Nothing too filling or fancy ahead of the turkey and pumpkin pie, just the way Grandma used to cook it. – Tony Horwitz
The Pumpkins love rock-and-roll, we absolutely love it, but we also think it’s a flatulent, ego-serving kiddie playground. You can have your cake and eat it too. – Billy Corgan
The Smashing Pumpkins was never meant to be a small band. It was going to either be a big band, or a no band. – Billy Corgan
The tree of nonsense is watered with error, and from its branches swing the pumpkins of disaster. – Nick Harkaway
The wind outside nested in each tree, prowled the sidewalks in invisible treads like unseen cats. Tom Skelton shivered. Anyone could see that the wind was a special wind this night, and the darkness took on a special feel because it was All Hallows’ Eve. Everything seemed cut from soft black velvet or gold or orange velvet. Smoke panted up out of a thousand chimneys like the plumes of funeral parades. From kitchen windows drifted two pumpkin smells: gourds being cut, pies being baked. – Ray Bradbury
The word ‘vegetable’ has no precise botanical meaning in reference to food plants, and we find that almost all parts of plants have been employed as vegetables – roots (carrot and beet), stems (Irish potato and asparagus), leaves (spinach and lettuce), leaf stalk (celery and Swiss chard), bracts (globe artichoke), flower stalks and buds (broccoli and cauliflower), fruits (tomato and squash), seeds (beans), and even the petals (Yucca and pumpkin).Charles Heiser
There are three things I have learned never to discuss with people…religion, politics and the Great Pumpkin! – Charles M. Schulz
This year I invested in pumpkins. They’ve been going up the whole month of October and I got a feeling they’re going to peak right around January. Then bang! That’s when I’ll cash in. – Homer
To be a textual critic requires aptitude for thinking and willingness to think; and though it also requires other things, those things are supplements and cannot be substitutes. Knowledge is good, method is good, but one thing beyond all others is necessary; and that is to have a head, not a pumpkin, on your shoulders and brains, not pudding, in your head. A. E. Housman
Way out in the country tonight he could smell the pumpkins ripening toward the knife and the triangle eye and the singeing candle. – Ray Bradbury
We fancy men are individuals; so are pumpkins; but every pumpkin in the field goes through every point of pumpkin history. – Ralph Waldo Emerson
Well, there doesn’t seem anything else for an ex-President to do but to go into the country and raise big pumpkins. – Chester A. Arthur
  What moistens the lip and what brightens the eye? What calls back the past like the rich pumpkin pie? – John Greenleaf Whittier
What she did have were Bertie Bott’s Every Flavor Beans, Drooble’s Best Blowing Gum, Chocolate Frogs, Pumpkin Pasties, Cauldron Cakes, Licorice Wands, and a number of other strange things Harry had never seen in his life. – J. K. Rowling
When I had a job catering, I catered a wedding for the Smashing Pumpkins bassist in Indiana. And I served Billy Corgan shrimp off a tray. – Amy Poehler
When I lived in New York, there wasn’t as much TV or film around. I got asked to do a couple of indie films, just based on me being from The Smashing Pumpkins and A Perfect Circle. I did a couple of indie movies from Japan and one from Canada, and I thought it was an exciting, fun thing to do. I had a great time doing it, it was just that, in New York, there really wasn’t as much. My studio in New York closed, so I moved out to L.A. and just started looking into composing as another thing to do, as a musician. I like it a lot. It’s fun and it’s a different way of thinking about music. James Iha
When I was a kid, Halloween was strictly a starchy-vegetable-only holiday, with pumpkins and Indian corn on the front stoop; there was nothing electric, nothing inflatable, nothing with latex membranes or strobes. – Susan Orlean
When the Lord starts out to make an oak tree, he takes a hundred years to do it in, but he can make a pumpkin in 90 days. More or less life is like that. We must choose whether we desire to become and oak tree or a pumpkin. – Sterling W Sill
When white men first effect contact with some unspoilt race of savages, they offer them all kinds of benefits, from the light of the gospel to pumpkin pie. These, however, much as we may regret it, most savages receive with indifference. What they really value among the gifts that we bring to them is intoxicating liquor which enables them, for the first time in their lives, to have the illusion for a few brief moments that it is better to be alive than dead. – Bertrand Russell
Who are you writing to, Linus?” “This is the time of year to write to the Great Pumpkin. On Halloween Night, the Great Pumpkin rises out of his pumpkin patch and flies through the air with his bag of toys for all the children!” “You must be crazy! When are you going to stop believing in something that isn’t true?” “When *you* stop believing in that fellow with a red suit and the white beard who goes, ‘Ho, ho, ho!'” “We’re obviously separated by denominational differences. – Charles M. Schulz
Why are terms of endearment always food? Honey, cookie, sugar, pumpkin. Its not like caring about someone is enough to actually sustain you. – Jodi Picoult
With the garden I planted for the Reina Sofia, each plant related to different celebrations along the calendar – Christmas with evergreen trees, Valentine’s Day with roses, Halloween with pumpkins. All these symbols are so culturally loaded, but they are organic living entities – just like the fish in the tanks. They grow on their own. The symbolic ecosystem is growing without a narrative anymore. It’s a physical and mental landscape.- Pierre Huyghe
Women are like pumpkins; you search and search for the perfect one, bring it home, and the next thing you know, you’re looking for a knife. – Dana Gould
You could hollow out a big pumpkin and wear it on your head for the entire week of your birthday. This will allow you to get in touch with your Halloween emotions.- Jade Puget
You will never see the four original Pumpkins on stage ever again, unless it’s a Hall of Fame thing. But you would never see a tour. There’s so much damage, there’s no way. – Billy Corgan
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Pumpkin Quotes
Official Website: Pumpkin Quotes
  “Only write what you know” is very good advice. I do my best to stick to it. I wrote about gods and dreams and America because I knew about them. And I wrote about what it’s like to wander into Faerie because I knew about that. I wrote about living underneath London because I knew about that too. And I put people into the stories because I knew them: the ones with pumpkins for heads, and the serial killers with eyes for teeth, and the little chocolate people filled with raspberry cream and the rest of them. – Neil Gaiman
In a clutch or a corner, I tend to make a weapon out of what is near at hand. That can be anything from a crowbar to a cat, though if I had a choice, I would prefer an angry cat, which I have found to be more effective than a crowbar. Although weaponless, I left the house by the back door, with two chocolate-pumpkin cookies. It’s a tough world out there, and a man has to armor himself against it however he can. ~Odd Thomas – Dean Koontz
Ah! on Thanksgiving day, when from East and from West, From North and South, come the pilgrim and guest, When the gray-haired New Englander sees round his board The old broken links of affection restored, When the care-wearied man seeks his mother once more, And the worn matron smiles where the girl smiled before. What moistens the lips and what brightens the eye? What calls back the past, like the rich pumpkin pie? – John Greenleaf Whittier
And all Halloween candy pales next to candy corn, if only because candy corn used to appear, like the Great Pumpkin, solely on Halloween. – Rosecrans Baldwin
And I Jack, the Pumpkin King, have grown so tired of the same old thing. – Tim Burton
And so, Thanksgiving. Its the most amazing holiday. Just think about it — it’s a miracle that once a year so many millions of Americans sit down to exactly the same meal as one another, exactly the same meal they grew up eating, and exactly the same meal they ate a year earlier. The turkey. The sweet potatoes. The stuffing. The pumpkin pie. Is there anything else we all can agree so vehemently about? I don’t think so. – Nora Ephron
Asleep by the Smiths Vapour Trail by Ride Scarborough Fair by Simon & Garfunkel A Whiter Shade of Pale by Procol Harum Dear Prudence by the Beatles Gypsy by Suzanne Vega Nights in White Satin by the Moody Blues Daydream by Smashing Pumpkins Dusk by Genesis (before Phil Collins was even in the band!) MLK by U2 Blackbird by the Beatles Landslide by Fleetwood Mac Asleep by the Smiths (again!) -Charlie’s mixtape – Stephen Chbosky
At last, small witches, goblins, hags, And pirates armed with paper bags Their costumes hinged on safety pins, Go haunt a night of pumpkin grins. – John Updike
Autumn. Pretty leaves, pumpkin pie and sweaters. Perfect weather for reading. Winter is great but I hate shoveling. – Eden Robinson
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Boston: Their hotels are bad. Their pumpkin pies are delicious. Their poetry is not so good. Edgar Allan Poe
But see, in our open clearings, how golden the melons lie; Enrich them with sweets and spices, and give us the pumpkin-pie! – Margaret Junkin Preston
Dark furrow lines grid the snow, punctuated by orange abacus beads of pumpkins – now the crows own the field. – John J. Geddes
Dear Great Pumpkin, Halloween is now only a few days away. Children all over the world await you coming. When you rise out of the pumpkin patch that night, please remember I am your most loyal follower. Have a nice trip. Don’t forget to take out flight insurance. – Charles M. Schulz
Do not be small minded. Do not pray for gourds and pumpkins from God, when you should be asking for pure love and pure knowledge to dawn within every heart.- Ramakrishna
Each year, the Great Pumpkin rises out of the pumpkin patch that he thinks is the most sincere. He’s gotta pick this one. He’s got to. I don’t see how a pumpkin patch can be more sincere than this one. You can look around and there’s not a sign of hypocrisy. Nothing but sincerity as far as the eye can see.- Charles M. Schulz
Eighteen luscuios scrumpitous flavors, Chocolate,Lime and Cherry Coffee,Pumpkin, Fudge-Banana, Caramel Cream and boysenberry. Rocky Road and Toasted Almond, Butterscotch,Vanilla Dip, Butter Brinkle, Apple Ripple,Coconut,and Mocha Chip, Brandy Peach and Lemon Custard. Each scoop lovely.smooth and round. Tallest cream cone in town lying there on the ground. – Shel Silverstein
Eric followed Vlad Tepes’s stubby finger, identifying me as the future Happy Meal. Then he stared at Dracula, looking up from his kneeling position. I couldn’t read his face at all, and I felt a stirring of fear. What would Charlie Brown have done if the Great Pumpkin wanted to eat the little red-haired girl? – Charlaine Harris
Even the weather seemed to be celebrating; as June approached, the days became cloudless and sultry, and all anybody felt like doing was strolling onto the grounds and flopping down on the grass with several pints of iced pumpkin juice, perhaps playing a casual game of Gobstones or watching the giant squid propel itself dreamily across the surface of the lake. – J. K. Rowling
Even where the land was more receptive, settlers soon learned to take some precautions before planting their vegetables. Maize and pumpkin seeds were soaked in water for several days and then blackened with tar before planting – the most effective way to deter rats, mice and birds. Bee Dawson
Every woman needs secrets,’ her mother said with a smile then, her eyes meeting Sally’s in the rearview mirror. ‘Remember that when you’re old like me, pumpkin, because the world has a way of making a woman’s life everyone else’s business–you have to dig out a little place that’s only yours. – J. Courtney Sullivan
‘Good Morning America’ exploited Joan Lunden’s pregnancy, but you won’t see me bringing my babies on the air. The only reason I’m talking about the babies at all is that they’ve been with me on the show since I became pregnant. After a while, I had to acknowledge this pumpkin tummy. – Jane Pauley
He gave me a look sure to put frost on anyone’s pumpkin.- Charlaine Harris
I don’t believe pumpkin pie is even made from pumpkin. I mean, how can something that smells that shitty make a pie so sweet? There’s not enough sugar in the universe. – Lewis Black
I feel like Cinderella sitting in the middle of the road with a pumpkin and a couple of mice, while Prince Charming charges off to rescue some other chick. – Cynthia Hand
I get more out of life just being myself, by just being a human being. Not by being a rock star, not by being whatever. Sometimes I act like a jerk, but I think people respect me for being myself. That’s the ultimate thing about the Smashing Pumpkins. – Billy Corgan
I grew up in the ’80s and ’90s listening to Public Enemy and Mobb Deep and the Smashing Pumpkins. I don’t even know what it was like in the ’60s – I wasn’t alive then – so the Mayer Hawthorne sound is taking what I can learn from the classics, and blending it with my hip-hop DJ and producer background and punk-rock bands that I played in as a kid. – Mayer Hawthorne
I haven’t taken my Christmas lights down. They look so nice on the pumpkin. – Winston Spear
I idolised bands like Pearl Jam and Smashing Pumpkins, who wanted to reach as many people as they could. Nate Ruess
I kept as still as I could. Nothing happened. I did not expect anything to happen. I was something that lay under the sun and felt it, like the pumpkins, and I did not want to be anything more. I was entirely happy. Perhaps we feel like that when we die and become a part of something entire, whether it is sun and air, or goodness and knowledge. At any rate, that is happiness; to be dissolved into something complete and great. When it comes to one, it comes as naturally as sleep. – Willa Cather
I like to make pies. Thats kind of my new obsession – peach, blueberry, apple, strawberry. I make a really good pumpkin pie with real pumpkin. – Morgan Saylor
I lost my virginity to a pumpkin when I was 23. Back then I was convinced I was actually a Vegetable, hell, that’s what the song is about. – Thom Yorke
I love the scents of winter! For me, it’s all about the feeling you get when you smell pumpkin spice, cinnamon, nutmeg, gingerbread and spruce. – Taylor Swift
I love the U.S. We came the first time in 2003, and it seems like we haven’t left since. James Iha from The Smashing Pumpkins came to Stockholm to see one of our shows, and he really fell in love with the band. He said, “I’m going to take you to America, I’m going to release you on my label.” When you’re in your early twenties and you get that kind of opportunity, you just gotta roll with it. – Maja Ivarsson
I mean you know at midnight everything is going to turn to pumpkins and mice; right? But if the evening goes along, I mean, you know, the guys look better all the time, the music sounds better, it’s more and more fun, you think why the hell should I leave at quarter of 12. I’ll leave at two minutes to 12. But the trouble is, there are no clocks on the wall. And everybody thinks they’re going to leave at two minutes to 12. – Warren Buffett
I never wanted to leave the Smashing Pumpkins. That was never the plan. – Billy Corgan
I represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic party. – Paul Wellstone
I saw thousands of pumpkins last night come floating in on the tide, bumping up against the rocks and rolling up on the beaches; it must be Halloween in the sea – Richard Brautigan
I see a girl caught in the remains of a holiday gone bad, with her flesh picked off day after day as the carcass dries out. The knife and fork are abviously middle-class sensibilities. The palm tree is a nice touch. A broken dream,perhaps? Plastic honeymoon, deserted island? Oh, If you put in a slice of pumpkin pie, it could be a desserted island! (Pg 64) -Laurie Halse Anderson
I sort of have a dark, twisted, offbeat way of writing, which I see coming up in my kids. It’s funny, on Halloween, one of my daughters said, “Halloween isn’t supposed to be happy, dad, it’s supposed to be dark. ” No smiling pumpkins at the Sixx household! – Nikki Sixx
I suppose I will die never knowing what pumpkin pie tastes like when you have room for it. – Robert Breault
I think people fetishize glasses in general. You could put glasses on a rotting pumpkin and people would think it was sexy. – Tina Fey
I was never able to get through Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness. I’ve never been able to make it through. And I love the Smashing Pumpkins, they’re one of my favorite bands ever, but I’ve never been able to listen to the whole thing all the way through. – John Wozniak
I went to Floridita on Wardour Street when I was 18. All I could afford was pumpkin soup and a glass of champagne, but it was worth it. – Karen Gillan
I would rather sit on a pumpkin and have it all to myself than be crowded on a velvet cushion. I would rather ride on earth in an ox cart, with a free circulation, than go to heaven in the fancy car of an excursion train and breathe a malaria all the way. Henry David Thoreau
I would rather sit on a pumpkin and have it all to myself, than be crowded on a velvet cushion. – Henry David Thoreau
I’m half-Japanese, so I collect toys, like a Yayoi Kusama stuffed pumpkin. – Nicola Formichetti
I’m not sure I would label it a ‘survivor,'” said Iko, her sensor darkening with disgust. “It looks more like a rotting pumpkin. Marissa Meyer
In November, the smell of food is different. It is an orange smell. A squash and pumpkin smell. It tastes like cinnamon and can fill up a house in the morning, can pull everyone from bed in a fog. Food is better in November than any other time of the year. – Cynthia Rylant
In the lives of children, pumpkins turn into coaches, mice and rats turn into men. When we grow up, we realize it is far more common for men to turn into rats.- Gregory Maguire
Instead of doing cinnamon, nutmeg, and all those baking spices I’ll have one spice that’s for sweets, and that’s pumpkin pie spice. – Sandra Lee
Is there a short-eared koobish, then?’ Mmmyes …’ said J.Lo. ‘But it is technically not really a koobish. Is more alike a kind of singing pumpkin.’ We had conversations like these all the time, where I just eventually gave up. – Adam Rex
It looks more like a rotting pumpkin. – Marissa Meyer
It was time to take the pumpkin out of the pot and eat it. In the final analysis, that was what solved these big problems of life. You could think and think and get nowhere, but you still had to eat your pumpkin. That brought you down to earth. That gave you a reason for going on. Pumpkin. – Alexander McCall Smith
It’s midnight Cinderella, but don’t worry none. Cause I’m Peter the Pumpkin Eater and the party’s just begun. – Garth Brooks
  Just wait and see, Charlie Brown. I’ll see the Great Pumpkin. I’ll SEE the Great Pumpkin! Just you wait, Charlie Brown. The Great Pumpkin will appear and I’ll be waiting for him. – Charles M. Schulz
Know what it is to be a child? It is to be something very different from the man of today. It is to have a spirit yet streaming from the waters of Baptism; it is to believe in belief; it is to be so little that elves can reach to whisper in your ear; it is to turn pumpkins into coaches, and mice into horses, lowness into loftiness, and nothing into everything, for each child had its fairy godmother in its soul. – Percy Bysshe Shelley
Lakes, June, Games
Like many indelible family memories, carving a pumpkin begins with someone grabbing a really sharp knife. – Dana Gould
Little brats yellin ‘Trick or Treat’ all through my screen door, When y’all should be at home sleep, Instead of at my front porch 15 deep. The jack o’ lantern came in handy… I can turn my porch light out like I ain’t got no candy. But ain’t that somethin? You buy a Halloween costume and a pumpkin, Almost gave your children a heart attack. It’s a tradition, but who the hell started that? Kam
Miraculously, smoke curled out of his own mouth, his nose, his ears, his eyes, as if his soul had been extinguished within his lungs at the very moment the sweet pumpkin gave up its incensed ghost. – Ray Bradbury
My father played guitar, so I always wanted to play for that reason. But I think the biggest reason was just the ’90s in general – growing up listening to the Smashing Pumpkins, Green Day and bands like that, and going to concerts and thinking it was the coolest thing in the world. – Jack Antonoff
My favorite word is ‘pumpkin.’ You can’t take it seriously. But you can’t ignore it, either. It takes ahold of your head and that’s it. You are a pumpkin. Or you are not. I am. – Harrison Salisbury
My kids just brought home a beautiful pumpkin, but you know what? I’m going to return it because it’s a Democratic pumpkin. It has the orange color of John Kerry’s tan, and the roundness of Teddy Kennedy. – Arnold Schwarzenegger
My most memorable meal is every Thanksgiving. I love the food: The turkey and stuffing; the sweet potatoes and rice, which come from my mother’s Southern heritage; the mashed potatoes, which come from my wife’s Midwestern roots; the Campbell’s green bean casserole; and of course, pumpkin pie. – Douglas Conant
October, baptize me with leaves! Swaddle me in corduroy and nurse me with split pea soup. October, tuck tiny candy bars in my pockets and carve my smile into a thousand pumpkins. O autumn! O teakettle! O grace! – Rainbow Rowell
Of the first achievements of the legislature was to institute a ten-thousand-dollar agricultural fair to show off forty dollars’ worth of pumpkins in – however, the territorial legislature was usually spoken of as the “asylum”. Mark Twain
On the moon we have everything. Lettuce, and pumpkin pie and Amanita phalloides. We have cat-furred plants and horses dancing with their wings. All the locks are solid and tight, and there are no ghosts. Shirley Jackson
Once a pumpkin, Always a pumpkin. – Billy Corgan
Pumpkin pie is a living symbol of mediocrity. The best pumpkin pie you ever ate wasn’t all that much different from the worst pumpkin pie you ever ate. – Garrison Keillor
Pumpkin spice lattes are egg nog for morning people. – John Oliver
Pumpkins are the only living organisms with triangle eyes. – Harland Williams
Raindrops the size of bullets thundered on the castle windows for days on end; the lake rose, the flower beds turned into muddy streams, and Hagrid’s pumpkins swelled to the size of garden sheds. – J. K. Rowling
Severus, please fetch me the strongest truth potion you posess, then go down to the kitchen and bring up the house elf called Winky. Minerva, kindly go down to Hagrids house where you will find a large black dog sitting in the pumpkin patch. Take the dog up to my office, tell him I will be with him shortly, then come back here. J. K. Rowling
She liked anything orange: leaves; some moons; marigolds; chrysanthemums; cheese; pumpkin, both in pie and out; orange juice; marmalade. Orange is bright and demanding. You can’t ignore orange things. She once saw an orange parrot in the pet store and had never wanted anything so much in her life. She would have named it Halloween and fed it butterscotch. Her mother said butterscotch would make a bird sick and, besides, the dog would certainly eat it up. September never spoke to the dog again — on principle. – Catherynne M. Valente
Smashing Pumpkins has never been a band about hit songs. – Billy Corgan
Some people are absolutely funny and you want to wish them Happy Thanksgiving in funniest way possible. Here is the list of Funny Thanksgiving sayings. Just chose the quote you want to wish that person. Vegetables are a must on a diet. I suggest carrot cake, zucchini bread and pumpkin pie. – Jim Davis
Sometimes I think that ideas float through the atmosphere like huge squishy pumpkins, waiting for heads to drop on. – Neil Gaiman
Thanksgiving is a magical time of year when families across the country join together to raise America’s obesity statistics. Personally, I love Thanksgiving traditions: watching football, making pumpkin pie, and saying the magic phrase that sends your aunt storming out of the dining room to sit in her car. – Stephen Colbert
The coach has turned into a pumpkin and the mice have all run away. – Lady Bird Johnson
The first real concert, other than going with my dad to see Three Dog Night, was Smashing Pumpkins and Garbage. I was fourteen or fifteen. I liked Shirley Manson because she reminded me of Annie Lennox. They both have these deep, sexy, powerful alto voices. – Amy Lee
The ideology of the Smashing Pumpkins was ultimately more valuable than the music of the Smashing Pumpkins. That’s what critics can’t put their finger on. – Billy Corgan
The mask can be a limitation, but you just deal with it. You do get superhuman strength and pumpkin bombs and all this other stuff to express yourself with.’ – Willem Dafoe
The mellow sweetness of pumpkin pie off a prison spoon is something you will never forget. – Mitchell Burgess
The near end of the street was rather dark and had mostly vegetable shops. Abundance of vegetables – piles of white and green fennel, like celery, and great sheaves of young, purplish, sea-dust-coloured artichokes . . . long strings of dried figs, mountains of big oranges, scarlet large peppers, a large slice of pumpkin, a great mass of colours and vegetable freshness. . . . D. H. Lawrence
The past was a consumable, subject to the national preference for familiar products. And history, in America, is a dish best served plain. The first course could include a dollop of Italian in 1492, but not Spanish spice or French sauce or too much Indian corn. Nothing too filling or fancy ahead of the turkey and pumpkin pie, just the way Grandma used to cook it. – Tony Horwitz
The Pumpkins love rock-and-roll, we absolutely love it, but we also think it’s a flatulent, ego-serving kiddie playground. You can have your cake and eat it too. – Billy Corgan
The Smashing Pumpkins was never meant to be a small band. It was going to either be a big band, or a no band. – Billy Corgan
The tree of nonsense is watered with error, and from its branches swing the pumpkins of disaster. – Nick Harkaway
The wind outside nested in each tree, prowled the sidewalks in invisible treads like unseen cats. Tom Skelton shivered. Anyone could see that the wind was a special wind this night, and the darkness took on a special feel because it was All Hallows’ Eve. Everything seemed cut from soft black velvet or gold or orange velvet. Smoke panted up out of a thousand chimneys like the plumes of funeral parades. From kitchen windows drifted two pumpkin smells: gourds being cut, pies being baked. – Ray Bradbury
The word ‘vegetable’ has no precise botanical meaning in reference to food plants, and we find that almost all parts of plants have been employed as vegetables – roots (carrot and beet), stems (Irish potato and asparagus), leaves (spinach and lettuce), leaf stalk (celery and Swiss chard), bracts (globe artichoke), flower stalks and buds (broccoli and cauliflower), fruits (tomato and squash), seeds (beans), and even the petals (Yucca and pumpkin).Charles Heiser
There are three things I have learned never to discuss with people…religion, politics and the Great Pumpkin! – Charles M. Schulz
This year I invested in pumpkins. They’ve been going up the whole month of October and I got a feeling they’re going to peak right around January. Then bang! That’s when I’ll cash in. – Homer
To be a textual critic requires aptitude for thinking and willingness to think; and though it also requires other things, those things are supplements and cannot be substitutes. Knowledge is good, method is good, but one thing beyond all others is necessary; and that is to have a head, not a pumpkin, on your shoulders and brains, not pudding, in your head. A. E. Housman
Way out in the country tonight he could smell the pumpkins ripening toward the knife and the triangle eye and the singeing candle. – Ray Bradbury
We fancy men are individuals; so are pumpkins; but every pumpkin in the field goes through every point of pumpkin history. – Ralph Waldo Emerson
Well, there doesn’t seem anything else for an ex-President to do but to go into the country and raise big pumpkins. – Chester A. Arthur
  What moistens the lip and what brightens the eye? What calls back the past like the rich pumpkin pie? – John Greenleaf Whittier
What she did have were Bertie Bott’s Every Flavor Beans, Drooble’s Best Blowing Gum, Chocolate Frogs, Pumpkin Pasties, Cauldron Cakes, Licorice Wands, and a number of other strange things Harry had never seen in his life. – J. K. Rowling
When I had a job catering, I catered a wedding for the Smashing Pumpkins bassist in Indiana. And I served Billy Corgan shrimp off a tray. – Amy Poehler
When I lived in New York, there wasn’t as much TV or film around. I got asked to do a couple of indie films, just based on me being from The Smashing Pumpkins and A Perfect Circle. I did a couple of indie movies from Japan and one from Canada, and I thought it was an exciting, fun thing to do. I had a great time doing it, it was just that, in New York, there really wasn’t as much. My studio in New York closed, so I moved out to L.A. and just started looking into composing as another thing to do, as a musician. I like it a lot. It’s fun and it’s a different way of thinking about music. James Iha
When I was a kid, Halloween was strictly a starchy-vegetable-only holiday, with pumpkins and Indian corn on the front stoop; there was nothing electric, nothing inflatable, nothing with latex membranes or strobes. – Susan Orlean
When the Lord starts out to make an oak tree, he takes a hundred years to do it in, but he can make a pumpkin in 90 days. More or less life is like that. We must choose whether we desire to become and oak tree or a pumpkin. – Sterling W Sill
When white men first effect contact with some unspoilt race of savages, they offer them all kinds of benefits, from the light of the gospel to pumpkin pie. These, however, much as we may regret it, most savages receive with indifference. What they really value among the gifts that we bring to them is intoxicating liquor which enables them, for the first time in their lives, to have the illusion for a few brief moments that it is better to be alive than dead. – Bertrand Russell
Who are you writing to, Linus?” “This is the time of year to write to the Great Pumpkin. On Halloween Night, the Great Pumpkin rises out of his pumpkin patch and flies through the air with his bag of toys for all the children!” “You must be crazy! When are you going to stop believing in something that isn’t true?” “When *you* stop believing in that fellow with a red suit and the white beard who goes, ‘Ho, ho, ho!'” “We’re obviously separated by denominational differences. – Charles M. Schulz
Why are terms of endearment always food? Honey, cookie, sugar, pumpkin. Its not like caring about someone is enough to actually sustain you. – Jodi Picoult
With the garden I planted for the Reina Sofia, each plant related to different celebrations along the calendar – Christmas with evergreen trees, Valentine’s Day with roses, Halloween with pumpkins. All these symbols are so culturally loaded, but they are organic living entities – just like the fish in the tanks. They grow on their own. The symbolic ecosystem is growing without a narrative anymore. It’s a physical and mental landscape.- Pierre Huyghe
Women are like pumpkins; you search and search for the perfect one, bring it home, and the next thing you know, you’re looking for a knife. – Dana Gould
You could hollow out a big pumpkin and wear it on your head for the entire week of your birthday. This will allow you to get in touch with your Halloween emotions.- Jade Puget
You will never see the four original Pumpkins on stage ever again, unless it’s a Hall of Fame thing. But you would never see a tour. There’s so much damage, there’s no way. – Billy Corgan
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newsnigeria · 5 years
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Check out New Post published on Ọmọ Oòduà
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War on Iran & Calling America’s Bluff
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Consortium News) by special agreement with the author
Vast swathes of the West seem not to realize that if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down a global depression will follow, writes Pepe Escobar.
The Trump administration once again has graphically demonstrated that in the young, turbulent 21st century, “international law” and “national sovereignty” already belong to the Realm of the Walking Dead.
As if a deluge of sanctions against a great deal of the planet was not enough, the latest “offer you can’t refuse” conveyed by a gangster posing as diplomat, Consul Minimus Mike Pompeo, now essentially orders the whole planet to submit to the one and only arbiter of world trade: Washington.
First the Trump administration unilaterally smashed a multinational, UN-endorsed agreement, the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal. Now the waivers that magnanimously allowed eight nations to import oil from Iran without incurring imperial wrath in the form of sanctions will expire on May 2 and won’t be renewed.
President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran deal upheld his highest obligation: to protect the safety and security of the American people. Why Iran sanctions are necessary: https://t.co/YQtmSA9hZX pic.twitter.com/n5r8mhZTl5
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) August 6, 2018
The eight nations are a mix of Eurasian powers: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece.
Apart from the trademark toxic cocktail of hubris, illegality, arrogance/ignorance and geopolitical/geo–economic infantilism inbuilt in this foreign policy decision, the notion that Washington can decide who’s allowed to be an energy provider to emerging superpower China does not even qualify as laughable. Much more alarming is the fact that imposing a total embargo of Iranian oil exports is no less than an act of war.
Ultimate Neocon Wet Dream 
Those subscribing to the ultimate U.S, neocon and Zionist wet dream – regime change in Iran – may rejoice at this declaration of war. But as Professor Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran has elegantly argued, “If the Trump regime miscalculates, the house can easily come crashing down on its head.”
Reflecting the fact Tehran seems to have no illusions regarding the utter folly ahead, the Iranian leadership — if provoked to a point of no return, Marandi additionally told me — can get as far as “destroying everything on the other side of the Persian Gulf and chasing the U.S. out of Iraq and Afghanistan. When the U.S. escalates, Iran escalates. Now it depends on the U.S. how far things go.”
This red alert from a sensible academic perfectly dovetails with what’s happening with the structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — recently branded a “terrorist organization” by the United States. In perfect symmetry, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also branded the U.S. Central Command — CENTCOM — and “all the forces connected to it” as a terrorist group.
The new IRGC commander-in-chief is Brigadier General Hossein Salami, 58. Since 2009 he was the deputy of previous commander Mohamamd al-Jafari, a soft spoken but tough as nails gentleman I met in Tehran two years ago. Salami, as well as Jafari, is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war; that is, he has actual combat experience. And Tehran sources assure me that he can be even tougher than Jafari.
In tandem, IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri has evoked the unthinkable in terms of what might develop out of the U.S. total embargo on Iran oil exports; Tehran could block the Strait of Hormuz.
Western Oblivion 
Vast swathes of the ruling classes across the West seem to be oblivious to the reality that if Hormuz is shut down, the result will be an absolutely cataclysmic global economic depression.
Warren Buffett, among other investors, has routinely qualified the 2.5 quadrillion derivatives market as a weapon of financial mass destruction. As it stands, these derivatives are used — illegally — to drain no less than a trillion U.S. dollars a year out of the market in manipulated profits.
Considering historical precedents, Washington may eventually be able to set up a Persian Gulf of Tonkin false flag. But what next?
If Tehran were totally cornered by Washington, with no way out, the de facto nuclear option of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would instantly cut off 25 percent of the global oil supply. Oil prices could rise to over $500 a barrel, to even $1000 a barrel. The 2.5 quadrillion of derivatives would start a chain reaction of destruction.
Unlike the shortage of credit during the 2008 financial crisis, the shortage of oil could not be made up by fiat instruments. Simply because the oil is not there. Not even Russia would be able to re-stabilize the market.
It’s an open secret in private conversations at the Harvard Club – or at Pentagon war-games for that matter – that in case of a war on Iran, the U.S. Navy would not be able to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missiles — with a top speed of Mach 2.9 — are lining up the Iranian northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. There’s no way U.S. aircraft carriers can defend a  barrage of Yakhont missiles.
Then there are the SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship missiles — already exported to China and India — flying ultra-low at 1,500 miles an hour with dodging capacity, and extremely mobile; they can be fired from a flatbed truck, and were designed to defeat the U.S. Aegis radar defense system.
What Will China Do?
The full–frontal attack on Iran reveals how the Trump administration bets on breaking Eurasia integration via what would be its weakeast node; the three key nodes are China, Russia and Iran. These three actors interconnect the whole spectrum; Belt and Road Initiative; the Eurasia Economic Union; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; the International North-South Transportation Corridor; the expansion of BRICS Plus.
So there’s no question the Russia-China strategic partnership will be watching Iran’s back. It’s no accident that the trio is among the top existential “threats” to the U.S., according to the Pentagon. Beijing knows how the U.S. Navy is able to cut it off from its energy sources. And that’s why Beijing is strategically increasing imports of oil and natural gas from Russia; engineering the “escape from Malacca” also must take into account a hypothetical U.S. takeover of the Strait of Hormuz.
Night view of coast of Oman, including Strait of Hormuz. (Intl Space Station photo via Wikimedia)
A plausible scenario involves Moscow acting to defuse the extremely volatile U.S.-Iran confrontation, with the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense trying to persuade President Donald Trump and the Pentagon from any direct attack against the IRGC. The inevitable counterpart is the rise of covert ops, the possible staging of false flags and all manner of shady Hybrid War techniques deployed not only against the IRGC, directly and indirectly, but against Iranian interests everywhere. For all practical purposes, the U.S. and Iran are at war.
Within the framework of the larger Eurasia break-up scenario, the Trump administration does profit from Wahhabi and Zionist psychopathic hatred of Shi’ites. The “maximum pressure” on Iran counts on Jared of Arabia Kushner’s close WhatsApp pal Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) in Riyadh and MbS’s mentor in Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed, to replace the shortfall of Iranian oil in the market. Bu that’s nonsense — as quite a few wily Persian Gulf traders are adamant Riyadh won’t “absorb Iran’s market share” because the extra oil is not there.
Much of what lies ahead in the oil embargo saga depends on the reaction of assorted vassals and semi-vassals. Japan won’t have the guts to go against Washington. Turkey will put up a fight. Italy, via Salvini, will lobby for a waiver. India is very complicated; New Delhi is investing in Iran’s Chabahar port as the key hub of its own Silk Road, and closely cooperates with Tehran within the INSTC framework. Would a shameful betrayal be in the cards?
China, it goes without saying, will simply ignore Washington.
Iran will find ways to get the oil flowing because the demand won’t simply vanish with a magic wave of an American hand. It’s time for creative solutions. Why not, for instance, refuel ships in international waters, accepting gold, all sorts of cash, debit cards, bank transfers in rubles, yuan, rupees and rials — and everything bookable on a website?
Now that’s a way Iran can use its tanker fleet to make a killing. Some of the tankers could be parked in — you got it — the Strait of Hormuz, with an eye on the price at Jebel Ali in the UAE to make sure this is the real deal. Add to it a duty free for the ships crews. What’s not to like? Ship owners will save fortunes on fuel bills, and crews will get all sorts of stuff at 90 percent discount in the duty free.
And let’s see whether the EU has grown a spine —  and really turbo-charge their Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) alternative payment network conceived after the Trump administration ditched the JCPOA. Because more than breaking up Eurasia integration and implementing neocon regime change, this is about the ultimate anathema; Iran is being mercilessly punished because it has bypassed the U.S. dollar on energy trade.
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smartwebhostingblog · 5 years
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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.
The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.
What We Know And What We Don’t Know
The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:
The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.
Here are some of the other things we don’t know:
We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.
We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.
We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.
We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.
We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.
Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.
That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.
The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.
Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute
The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.
For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.
Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.
Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.
A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.
Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.
Market down 30%: Use another 25%.
Market down 40%: Use another 25%.
Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”
Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.
If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.
In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.
The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.
Buffett Rebalancing
The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.
Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.
You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.
The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:
If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.
Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.
Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.
Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.
Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.
Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.
Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.
This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).
What To Buy
Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:
Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!
Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).
Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.
With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.
If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.
To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.
That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.
Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)
There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.
The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.
When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.
Conclusion
At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.
The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.
I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
New Post has been published on http://hosting-df.net/having-a-plan-and-sticking-to-it-why-buffett-rebalancing-made-me-buy-berkshire-on-dec-24/
Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.
The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.
What We Know And What We Don’t Know
The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:
The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.
Here are some of the other things we don’t know:
We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.
We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.
We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.
We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.
We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.
Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.
That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.
The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.
Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute
The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.
For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.
Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.
Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.
A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.
Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.
Market down 30%: Use another 25%.
Market down 40%: Use another 25%.
Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”
Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.
If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.
In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.
The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.
Buffett Rebalancing
The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.
Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.
You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.
The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:
If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.
Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.
Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.
Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.
Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.
Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.
Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.
This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).
What To Buy
Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:
Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!
Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).
Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.
With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.
If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.
To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.
That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.
Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)
There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.
The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.
When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.
Conclusion
At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.
The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.
I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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lazilysillyprince · 5 years
Text
Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
New Post has been published on http://hosting-df.net/having-a-plan-and-sticking-to-it-why-buffett-rebalancing-made-me-buy-berkshire-on-dec-24/
Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.
The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.
What We Know And What We Don’t Know
The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:
The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.
Here are some of the other things we don’t know:
We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.
We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.
We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.
We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.
We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.
Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.
That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.
The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.
Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute
The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.
For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.
Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.
Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.
A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.
Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.
Market down 30%: Use another 25%.
Market down 40%: Use another 25%.
Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”
Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.
If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.
In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.
The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.
Buffett Rebalancing
The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.
Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.
You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.
The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:
If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.
Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.
Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.
Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.
Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.
Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.
Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.
This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).
What To Buy
Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:
Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!
Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).
Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.
With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.
If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.
To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.
That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.
Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)
There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.
The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.
When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.
Conclusion
At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.
The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.
I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24
My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.
The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.
What We Know And What We Don’t Know
The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:
The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.
Here are some of the other things we don’t know:
We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.
We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.
We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.
We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.
We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.
Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.
That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.
The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.
Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute
The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.
For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.
Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.
Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.
A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.
Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.
Market down 30%: Use another 25%.
Market down 40%: Use another 25%.
Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”
Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.
If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.
In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.
The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.
Buffett Rebalancing
The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.
Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.
You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.
The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:
If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.
Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.
Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.
Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.
Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.
Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.
Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.
This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).
What To Buy
Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:
Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!
Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).
Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.
With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.
If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.
To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.
That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.
Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)
There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.
The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.
When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.
Conclusion
At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.
The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.
I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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