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holytheoristtastemaker · 4 years

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The news of Zeit Vercel raising $21m (slide deck here) is great occasion for taking stock of what is going on with cloud startups. As Brian Leroux (who runs Begin.com) observes, with reference to Netlify's $55m Series C last month:

Between just Netlify and Vercel the VC community has put over 70MM in cloud focused on frontend dev in 2020.

Haven't AWS/GCP/Azure owned the cloud space? What is the full potential of this new generation of startups basically reselling their services with some value add?

Cloud's Deployment Age

I am reminded, again, of Fred Wilson's beloved Carlota Perez framework that I wrote about in React Distros. First you have an Installation Age, with a lot of creative destruction. Then, with the base primitives sorted out, we then build atop the installed layer, in a Deployment Age:

I think the same dynamics I outlined with frontend frameworks is happening here with cloud services. I'm obviously a LOT less well versed with the history of cloud, so please please take this with a grain of salt.

The "Failure" of PaaS

The argument is that the Big 3 Cloud Providers are mostly providing the new commoditized primitives on which the next generation of cloud services will be built. AWS is AWS, Azure maybe caters to the dotNet/Microsoft crowd better, whereas GCP maybe differentiates on Kubernetes and Machine Learning. Basically everyone has a container thing, a data thing, a file storage thing, a serverless thing, and so on.

A nice way to think about it, which I attribute to Guillermo (but I'm not sure about), is that these basic services are the new "Hardware". Instead of going to Fry's and picking up a motherboard, we now go to the AWS Console and pick up a t2.micro or to Azure for a Durable Function. Instead of debating Sandisk vs Western Digital we match up AWS Aurora vs Azure DocumentDB. The benefits are clear - we don't get our hands dirty, we can easily (too easily?) scale with a single API call, and thanks to Infra-as-Code we can truly treat our infra like cattle, not pets.

When the Big N clouds launched, the expectation was that Platform as a Service (PaaS) would win out over Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). I mean - look at this chart! - if you were running a Software business, would you want to run it atop an IaaS or a PaaS? It made intuitive sense, and both Google App Engine and Azure originally launched with this vision, while Salesforce bought Heroku within 3 years of founding.

But this thesis was wrong. As Patrick McKenzie recently noted:

I'm surprised that Heroku's model didn't win over AWS' model and that DevOps is accordingly a core competence at most SaaS companies. This seems obviously terrible to me every time I'm doing DevOps, which probably took ~20% of all engineering cycles at my last company for surfacing very little customer value.

This rings true. As moderately successful as Heroku, Parse, and Firebase were, they are dwarfed by the size of the big clouds' IaaS businesses. It turns out that most people just wanted to lift and shift their workloads, rather than start new apps from scratch on underpowered platforms. Assisted by Docker, this acquired the rather unfortunate name of "cloud native". (Unfortunate, because there are now "more native" versions of building cloud-powered apps than "containerize everything and somehow mention agile")

But I don't think the PaaSes were wrong.

They were just early.

Developer Experience as a Differentiator

The thing about hardware providers is that they don't cater well to specific audiences. By nature, they build for general use. The best they can do is offer up a default "Operating System" to run them - the AWS Console, Google Cloud Console, Microsoft Azure Portal (Dave Cutler literally called Azure a Cloud OS when it began).

Meanwhile, the "undifferentiated heavy lifting" (aka Muck) of wrangling datacenters turned into "undifferentiated heavy lifting" of messing with 5 different AWS services just to set up a best practices workflow.

So increasingly, intermediate providers are rising up to provide a better developer experience and enforce opinionated architectures (like JAMstack):

Netlify

Vercel

Repl.it

Begin.com

Glitch

Render.com

Amplify

KintoHub

The working name for this new generation of cloud providers, used by Martin Casado, Amjad Masad, and Guillermo Rauch, is "second layer" or "higher level" cloud providers.

Nobody loves these names. It doesn't tell you the value add of having a second layer. Also the name implies that more layers atop these layers will happen, and that is doubtful.

Cloud Distros

I think the right name for this phenomenon is Cloud Distros (kinda gave this away in the title, huh). The idea is both that the default experience is not good enough, and that there are too many knobs and bells and whistles to tweak for the average developer to setup a basic best practices workflow.

Ok, I lied - there is no average developer. There are a ton of developers - ~40m, going by GitHub numbers. They don't all have the same skillset. The argument here is that cloud is going from horizontal, general purpose, off the shelf, to verticalized, opinionated, custom distributions. There are ~300,000 AWS Cloud Practitioners - yet, going by Vercel's numbers, there are 11 million frontend developers.

In order to cross this "chasm", the cloud must change shape. We need to develop custom "Distros" for each audience. For the Jamstack audience, we now have Netlify, Amplify, Begin and Vercel. For the Managed Containers crew, we have Render and KintoHub. For the Hack and Learn in the Cloud folks, we have Glitch and Repl.it. What the business nerds call verticalization or bundling, developers call "developer experience" - and it is different things to different people.

What's funny is these startups all basically run AWS or GCP under the hood anyway. They select the good parts, abstract over multiple services and give us better defaults. This is a little reminiscent of Linux Distros - you can like Ubuntu, and I can like Parrot OS, but it's all Linux under the hood anyway. We pick our distro based on what we enjoy, and our distros are made with specific developer profiles in mind too.

The Future of Cloud Distros

What we have now isn't the end state of things. It is still too damn hard to create and deploy full stack apps, especially with a serverless architecture. Serverless cannot proclaim total victory until we can recreate DHH's demo from 15 years ago in 15 minutes. I have yet to see a realistic demo replicating this. Our users and their frameworks want us to get there, but the platforms need to grow their capabilities dramatically. In our haste to go serverless, we broke apart the monolith - and suffered the consequences - now we must rebuild it atop our new foundations.

Begin and Amplify have made some great steps in this direction - offering integrated database solutions. Render and KintoHub buck the serverless trend, offering a great developer experience for those who need a running server.

There's probably no winner-takes-all effect in this market - but of course, there can be an Ubuntu. This generation of Cloud Distros is fighting hard to be the one-stop platform for the next wave (even the next generation) of developers, and we all win as a result.

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hiphopparaelmundo-blog · 7 years

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😮 Quieres Quedar con las Chicas mas Caliente de tu Zona ven Aqui 😮 https://youtu.be/bQCNWiOtPUY

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thedesperatehousehusband · 6 years

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I Prefer My Globes Golden

This year has started with a bang of activity between work travel (more on that later) and my mom’s move to a new house (more on that later too). Basically all of this prevented me from doing my normal live blog of the Golden Globes. The first legit awards show of the season. Given that it is now a full day later, I will just do an abbreviated list of thoughts, comments and highlights. Because the people are asking for my thoughts, comments and critical eye.

The black dress code kind of set the tone for the show. I’m not sure there were any fashion disasters and there’s little to comment on given that homogeneity of color. However, the pervasive black made a strong statement and one that was carried through the entire show. It’s important, it’s timely, it’s meaningful but it made the tone of the evening heavy. There seemed to be nervousness about having any fun, which we can still have and frankly NEED to have. Making a statement is critical and an awards show brings critical mass but it is still a celebration of excellence. In a nutshell, the show itself was really bland. Seth Myers did what he could but there definitely seemed to be really strict guardrails for jokes based on audience reaction to things. I thank Allison Janney for wearing a fake bird on her shoulder when she presented. Because that was about the lightest moment beyond the monologue.

The barrage of wins for Big Little Lies was timely based up on the subject matter of the series, the incredible women involved and the fact that the show was excellent.

The barrage of wins for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was entirely unexpected to me beyond maybe Frances McDormand. I am THRILLED for Martin MacDonagh because he is the shit. His plays are hilarious and I personally felt Three Billboards was outstanding but I was surprised.

I felt a bit bad for Guillermo del Toro and his Best Director win because that whole category became very awkward. There was so much mentioned about Greta Gerwig’s perceived (and legit) snub and the fact that Barbra Streisand is the only women to win the Best Director category at the Golden Globes and that was 34 years ago. However, The Shape of Water is truly excellent in terms of its direction and I feel like Guillermo del Toro should have been honored. Lady Bird is incredible and I loved it. Greta Gerwig should have been nominated but I in my mind the right person won. And he should be allowed to celebrate. I’m not saying anything prevented that at all but it just felt a bit sticky.

Happy for Gary Oldman but duh. Happy for Coco but duh. I’m primarily indifferent about the TV awards. I haven’t seen The Handmaid’s Tale nor The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. I want to but we are inundated with TV clutter as it is.

I was surprised by two awards. I thought Laurie Metcalf (Best Supporting Actress) was going to win for Lady Bird but Allison Janney won for I, Tonya. Saoirse Ronan (Best Actress-Comedy) won for Lady Bird but I thought it was going to be Margot Robbie for I, Tonya. It was all flip flopped but that’s fine. All four are terrific.

It was nice to see Kirk Douglas. He’s 101. It shows. I don’t have the energy to look up why Michael Douglas was not there to co-present with his father. But instead that honor went to his daughter-in-law, Catherine Zeta-Jones Douglas. I’m sure there’s a reason. I don’t care that much.

In closing, let’s go to the watershed moment. Oprah, Oprah, Oprah. She killed. She slayed. Did she speak with or without a teleprompter? I couldn’t tell and if that was off the cuff even BIGGER kudos. Oprah is a powerful speaker and is clearly well-suited to deliver a message of inclusivity, diversity, gender equality, and general equality across the board. I was riled up. I was teary eyed. I was emotionally invested. I have an on and off relationship with Oprah. I have always been impressed with her acting. O The Oprah Magazine is a print success in a declining industry. What she’s done with OWN is beyond impressive. Harpo Studies does really cool stuff and she’s brought people of color and in particular women of color behind the camera and in other important behind-the-scenes roles. She’s highlighted obscure authors and made their books popular. These are all incredible things. BUUUUUUT The Oprah Winfrey Show drove me crazy. The clawing and scratching to be in the audience for Oprah’s Favorite Things. The cars for the audience. The trips to Australia with John Travolta. Let’s be clear. Oprah didn’t give away cars to the audience. Pontiac gave away cars to the audience and The Oprah Winfrey Show was the vessel on which Pontiac gave away those cars. No one at Oprah spent a penny on those cars. But I digress……the speech was amazing. The message is clear. The audience was rapt. They cheered. They stood spontaneously. Tracee Ellis Ross stood for virtually the entire speech. It’s all people are talking about today. I’m sure our President has said something ignorant on Twitter but I choose to remain blissfully unaware as far as that’s concerned. But on that topic…I was on the EDGE of my seat because I really, really thought she was gearing up to say something HUGE. I 100% was there and I was ready for the frenzy. I would not have been surprised one iota if the she closed the speech with the following “My name is Oprah Winfrey. And I’m running for President.”

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