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junker-town · 5 years

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We shouldn’t expect too much from the Cardinals’ new offense just yet

Kyler Murray has a ton of upside, but expect some growing pains for the Cardinals rookie quarterback.

Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals have exciting potential, but 2019 probably won’t be their year.

Even though the Cardinals are coming off of a 3-13 season, they’ll be under the spotlight during the 2019 NFL season. They took a huge swing by hiring Kliff Kingsbury, who was fired by Texas Tech, to reinvent their offense with the 5’10, No. 1 pick Kyler Murray leading the charge.

That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be one of the NFL’s better teams — or even an average one. The offense was ranked last or near the bottom of almost every statistical category under one-and-done head coach Steve Wilks in 2018.

Between a super young group of wide receivers, a rookie quarterback, and an offensive line that’s still being rebuilt, expectations should be held in check for the Cardinals’ offense in 2019. There’s little reason to believe this will be an explosive offense in the first year of the Kliff and Kyler connection — and that’s fine.

It’ll be hard to get the Cardinals off the ground with their offensive line

Outside of breaking in another first-time quarterback, the Cardinals’ biggest issue will be working around an offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year. This is a group that finished 25th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric, which measures how well they run block. They also finished 27th in sack percentage in 2018.

Arizona is, more or less, bringing back the same offensive line as last year. The only notable move the team made was acquiring right tackle Marcus Gilbert in a trade from the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cardinals have to be hoping that they can keep their offensive line healthy this year, too. By the end of the season, all five starters were on the bench with injuries.

Even before the injuries, the Cardinals’ offensive line wasn’t performing very well. If their preseason performance against the Oakland Raiders’ starting defense was any indication, 2019 figures to be more of the same.

lmao pic.twitter.com/4vgD1fdmnv

— charles mcdonald (@FourVerts) August 21, 2019

The Cardinals’ offensive line was getting beat so quickly in that game that there were a few snaps where defenders were in the backfield right at the time of the handoff.

pic.twitter.com/9oU8SzV6SD

— charles mcdonald (@FourVerts) August 21, 2019

Interestingly enough, Arizona didn’t give up many sacks in the preseason. The Cardinals allowed nine sacks in the preseason, which was tied with three teams for 14th — though a lot of that was due to the mobility of Murray and backup quarterback Brett Hundley. Here’s an example of Murray using his legs to escape a sack against the Raiders.

Murray’s ability to buy his own time should help their sack percentage improve this season, but they’ll still need to protect him to maximize his rookie year while making sure he doesn’t take too much of a beating.

Kyler Murray is a dynamic talent, but he’s going to have some growing pains

Kingsbury had a vision in mind for the Cardinals’ offense when he made Murray the first pick in the draft. Murray wrecked the Big 12 with 4,361 passing yards, 1,001 rushing yards, and 54 combined touchdowns on his way to the Heisman Trophy — everyone knows he can make plays; it’s just going to take some time at the next level.

It was clear in the preseason as Murray was still trying to get used to playing in the NFL, most notably when he was called for false starts due to clapping.

Like most rookie quarterbacks, Murray will have growing pains that will cause their offense to sputter at times.

This three-play sequence reveals the issues the Cardinals are facing this season: a flushed pocket for no gain, a miss over the middle, and then a safety to finish the drive.

Kyler Murray got sacked for a Safety, so now it's 26-0 #Raiders against the team that picked 1st overall in the Draft a few months ago.pic.twitter.com/i8CN29at0h

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 16, 2019

Still, Murray is an extremely promising prospect, and he showed why during the Cardinals’ “dress rehearsal” game against the Vikings. He has arm talent that rivals any quarterback in the league, but he needs the reps to get used to the speed of the NFL.

One of Kyler Murray's most promising moments during preseason was mental progress in Minnesota. After failing to see an open corner route for a TD vs. Cover-2, he came back the next drive, recognized the safeties rotate to Cover-2 and drilled a holeshot to the opposite side pic.twitter.com/XXU2v2Y6Am

— David DeChant (@DavidDeChant) September 3, 2019

If Murray and the Cardinals struggle all year, it shouldn’t be held as a future indictment of the quarterback’s potential. This is an offense that finished dead last in yards per play (4.3), 31st in passer rating (69), and tied for last in adjusted net yards per attempt (3.7). This is going to be a multi-year project to get the offense back on track — especially with other problems plaguing the team.

They have two other pressing issues on offense

The first is figuring out a way to get David Johnson back to being one of the best rushers in the league. His 2017 season was cut short due to a wrist injury in Week 1 and last year he couldn’t get going due to a lackluster scheme and the offensive line.

Not only did Johnson have the worst year of his career as a runner — he averaged 3.6 yards per carry after averaging 4.4 in 2015 and 2016 — he also had his worst season as a receiver. His yards per target dropped from 7.5 in 2015 and 2016 to 5.9 last year. His yards per reception also dropped from 11.5 to 8.9. It’s certainly possible that Kingsbury’s new scheme can get Johnson to return to form, but he hasn’t been a dynamic force in almost three seasons now.

The second is an abundance of youth at wide receiver. Other than Larry Fitzgerald and the recently signed Michael Crabtree, all of the team’s receivers are in their first or second year. That includes two rookies (Andy Isabella and KeeSean Johnson) and undrafted second-year player Trent Sherfield, who caught 19 passes as a rookie.

At the very least, Isabella and Johnson played well in the preseason. Johnson had 16 catches for 156 yards and Isabella scored a 59-yard touchdown against the Raiders.

ANDY ISABELLA IS A BALLER. pic.twitter.com/R9vERtBBY0

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) August 16, 2019

That was one of Isabella’s three catches for the preseason, but the playmaking ability is there. Right now, he’s behind Christian Kirk — another second-year receiver — on the depth chart.

It’s OK to be excited about the future of the Cardinals. The idea of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury playing a creative, explosive brand of football is fun to think about. But 2019 probably isn’t going to be their year. They’re dealing with a lot of personnel issues that could get in the way of any short-term success the team might have.

It’s going to take a few years for this offense to really take off. The good news is when it finally does, it will scare NFL defenses.

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