VFX WORKERS AT MARVEL FILING FOR UNION ELECTION WITH THE NLRB

IF THEY WIN THEY WOULD BE THE FIRST UNION IN THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

[TRANS] Esquire June 2017 Chansung Interview

Man at His Best

Thoughts, Words, Dreams, and Chansung

Chansung thinks. And speaks accordingly. And now I have a dream, Chansung says.

Editor Min Youngjun (Min): Yesterday was the Election Day. I heard it was your second presidential election. Hwang Chansung (Hwang): That’s right. And I voted for the same person both times.

Min: Don’t you make it too obvious who you voted for? Hwang: I already tweeted about it as I was coming here for the photo shoot.

Min: Actually, it’s pretty rare to ask current idols about political issues. Somehow the question rolled off my tongue naturally because I know you tend to openly express your thoughts on politics or social issues on Twitter. But don’t you get uncomfortable yourself, when people ask you this? Hwang: Not really. People my age, in their 20s, are a lot more indifferent to the society and the politics than you would think. I think it’s a problem that everyone should be interested in. Since it concerns me, I try to express my concern coherently through the SNS.

Min: Even if you are okay with it, there must be people around you who are worried about it. Hwang: Quite a few are. My parents are worried, and so are some of fans. Because I immediately say something that feels right, but later on whatever I’ve said might turn out to be wrong. That’s why I make a statement after serious consideration.

Min: Ever since you studied at the Korea Arts High School, you majored in theatre and film. And even before you made your debut with 2PM, you appeared as an actor in the “High Kick through the Roof” series first. Hwang: Indeed. Around 2 years earlier (than 2PM debut).

Min: Was your dream to be an actor, not a singer? Hwang: To be honest, I didn’t have a dream. When they would ask us to write down our dreams, if someone next to me wrote “president,” I would write down “president,” too. It was like that (laughs).

Min: You could say you cheated on your dream. (laughs) Then how did you become a singer and a 2PM member? Hwang: A hyung I know, who had joined the JYP Company, told me they would be holding a survival audition on SBS, and he asked if I intended to participate. That was the beginning. So I passed the preliminaries, but I got eliminated just after two episodes since the beginning of the show, and while I was going home, I got a call asking if I wanted to try becoming a trainee at JYPE, and I agreed to it. As I went through my training, I got to think that this job was interesting, too, and it just started out instinctively.

Min: Training must have been tough. Was it doable even though you weren’t too eager to succeed? Hwang: To be honest, physically, there would be many other things a lot harder than this. However, mentally, if you do not have a character that supports you like a strong pillar, it’s really hard. I think that I happened to have that kind of mentality.

Min:  Didn’t you wonder why they offered you to become a trainee when you were eliminated after just 2 episodes? Hwang: Back then, I wasn’t too curious. It was a rare chance, so I just snatched onto it. I think I might have made that decision because I was like that back then.

Min: Eventually, you debuted with 2PM, and you’ve had continuous activities, while also widening your territory as an actor. It was a choice that changed your life. Hwang: That’s right. Before that, I did taekwondo, I was part of the kendo performance group for a short while, but I totally didn’t study. I didn’t experience a sense of crisis that would have made me think I had to study. But even so I think I was good-natured. Because I didn’t sleep right in front of my teachers at school (laughs). If I would wake up after being sleepy for a while, I would try and focus. After I got out of school, I haven’t studied at all.

Min: We might also say that the offer to become a trainee could’ve been your first motivational push in life. Hwang: Indeed. My mother had also worried how I would make a living. She was never oppressive, but she would say I did well, if I studied. But when I said I would become a trainee, she told me to try out everything.

Min: Queen for Seven days is your first historical drama. Hwang: I didn’t look for an acting teacher for three years. Because I wanted to try it out by myself somehow. But when I looked at the script, I couldn’t come up with anything. When you look at the text alone, it seems like the breathing manner is different, too. I couldn’t distinctly grasp the character’s tone or feeling that the director wanted, so I eventually sought out an acting instructor. Now, I think, I caught a few strings I can hold onto. Thanks to my teacher, I am practising step by step.

Min: Have you ever been told that your acting is good for an idol? Hwang: Oh yes. But, to be honest, that kind of thinking is quite natural. It would be weird to say you’re “looking forward” to some sort of an idol actor (laughs). From my point of view, I just have to work hard and hope they would comment when they see the result.

Min: Are you good at taking on malicious comments? Hwang: When you are active as an idol, you naturally end up getting cursed at lot, so I have some sort of training. On one hand, when you change the point of view, you understand it. When people go through a lot of frustrating situations, they gather a lot of unreleased energy, and since they cannot unleash it unto their family or friends, I think they might end up shooting those arrows at celebrities. Of course, even if I think like that, there are times when I get very angry because of excessive comments, but for the most part, I just think “Ah, something got them really angry, perhaps.”

Min: Even so, you seem to be the type who feels satisfied when you say the things you want to say. Hwang: In reality, if I get really angry, I don’t speak at all. Because I think that if I open my mouth, I would end up saying things that cannot be contained (laughs). Even when I tweet, I do it already after my anger has subsided and after I have rearranged my thoughts. If I think that there is something I have to say, I do it. If I feel that someone might not have come to their senses, I could also lay out things out in the open, so that they would get it together.

Min: You’re appearing on a stage play in June, too. Hwang: It’s a premiere of a play “My Love My Bride” directed by Lee Myeongse. Little by little, as we keep on practising, things are settling into their shapes. Now all that is left to do is memorise my lines.

Min: Aren’t you scared? That you might possibly forget your lines? Hwang: I usually don’t worry about such things. I’m just curious about the venue atmosphere. They say it’s breathtaking if the actors and the audience are on the same wavelength, so I’m looking forward to it.

Min: Was it really necessary to try out play acting, too? If you’re good at it, it’s a matter of principle, if you’re not, you’ll get more negative comments. Hwang: I don’t think that I wouldn’t be able to do that. I’m optimistic to an odd extent, so I’m actually looking forward to see how much fun it is. I’ve always wanted to try out stage acting, too, but it was hard because of my schedule. So I’m doing this now, because I finally can.

Min: Does the number of things you want to try out grow? Hwang: Perhaps? There are still many roles I haven’t tried. Senior actors keep on saying “One of these days, your own thing will come to you.” I don’t know when that happens, but right now if I think that something might be interesting, I want to try it no matter what.

Min: Do you now have aspirations as an actor? Hwang: Rather than an aspiration, shall I say it’s a dream? Perhaps it’s a bit too late to call something my dream, but even as I grow older, I want to keep on working like this. I have to constantly find myself, but the more I try to, the more I realise it won’t be easy.

Min: Perhaps you want to encompass them all, as well as 2PM’s Chansung and actor Hwang Chansung? Hwang: Indeed. I might be too greedy.

Min: But even the president you voted for the first time, eventually got elected when you voted for him the second time. Hwang: If you keep on fishing, you might eventually catch something. (laughs)

Scans: Go!Chansung Kor-Eng: Egle0702

MAY BE TAKEN OUT WITH PROPER CREDITS!!!

General Election 2017 - Man Like Corbz done good!

I am certain when the Exit Poll dropped on Thursday night shortly after polling stations closed there was a collective amount of jaw dropping across the nation and I can imagine several near heart attacks across CCHQ! I know Labour HQ were quietly jubilant but wanted to wait to see how the night transpired. No one saw this coming…. It was seriously a “where were you when you heard..” moment!! I stared at my TV screen thinking “Please, please, please let this Exit Poll be correct!” Why? Because it predicted a Hung Parliament and showed a brilliant Labour surge in the vote against all the odds. Many political commentators were urging caution whilst some remained steadfast in their belief that May would win the majority she needed to carry forth her mandate into the Brexit negotiations. I could feel something brewing in the air. Big crowds would turn out to see Corbyn at events across the country. He even packed out a football stadium with the crowd shouting: “Oooooh Jeremy Corbyn!” People wherever I went were talking about Corbyn and Labour’s Manifesto. On Thursday afternoon I was walking out of Wembley Park Tube Station and a group of School girls ran up to me and stopped me. They said “please vote Labour!” I answered “already done!” They cheered “Team Jezza! Bun the Tories!” and we all high-fived! That really warmed my heart! Young people engaged in politics and realising how politics impacts on every single facet of their life. I honestly felt like their proud Aunty! Anyway I digress….back to election night…. I could not sleep…optimism in my heart had me glued to my TV screen for the entire night. Was this really happening??? The results started to roll in and it was becoming clearly evident that the Exit Poll was indeed correct! Yes, I punched the air a few times as Labour Gains across the country materialised including Scotland where we took seats from the SNP. Canterbury went red after being Conservative since 1918! The Tory MP Jane Ellison was ousted in Battersea by Labour’s Marsha de Cordova! It was a stunning 10% swing from the Tories to Labour. The Tories dreadful manifesto author Ben Gummer gone! Nick Clegg gone! Amber Rudd was onto her 5th recount and almost had people rummaging through the bins for votes when it became clear that this was shaping up to be an extraordinary night for Corbyn and Labour! Long standing Labour activist Eleanor Smith made history by becoming the West Midlands’ first African Caribbean MP in a seat that used to be held by the racist Tory MP Enoch Powell! He of “Rivers of Blood” infamy. Kensington and Chelsea where the average house prices are 1.4 million now has the red flag flying high! The same constituency where Dacre’s Daily Mail HQ aka The Daily Heil sits in now has a Labour MP! Oh the irony…. Labour’s success saw it almost completely wipe out the Tories in London and more than double majorities in seats that were previously considered marginal. Remember that Theresa Mayhem had promised again and again that if she lost six seats, Jeremy Corbyn would be walking into number 10! On election night the U-turn Queen lost more than that yet is still desperately clinging on to power! Blaming everyone but herself for taking a reckless and arrogant gamble in calling a General Election that no one wanted. She has also lost the mandate for a hard Brexit and solidified just how weak and unstable a leader she actually is. British politics has suffered a Youthquake! Corbyn offered a real vision and hope to a younger generation who had often felt marginalised by politics. He connected with their aspirations and they mobilised and came out in force! Big up the #Grime4Corbyn campaign and all the Grime artists and rappers who helped inspire young people to go out and vote. This is just the start! Let’s build on what we have achieved! I am so proud to see the young voices rise up and just want to send heartfelt thanks to all the young people up and down the land who came out to vote. I am an actor and a movie geek so here is what I think: Corbyn in many ways epitomises Obi-Wan’s classic line in Star Wars - A New Hope: “If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.” I’m serious. Why do I make this correlation? Well Corbyn has survived strike after strike! He has survived constant attacks and challenges from within the Labour Party as well as vicious, poisonous and relentless assaults from the Tories and their right wing media cheerleaders and he has always comes back stronger than before and with a bigger mandate than before to boot! It is clear in this election that the more people saw of Corbyn the more they liked what they saw. Calm, compassionate, dignified, principled and always on the right side of history. Also the Labour Manifesto with the vision “For the Many Not The Few” successfully resonated with so many across the country. Hope, a feeling last seen in British politics in 1997 is on the rise again. In contrast Maybot decided to base her election campaign around herself under the “Strong and Stable” robotic mantra. She ducked away from the TV debates like a coward, tried as much as she could to avoid the public and trotted out soundbite after soundbite to the point that she sounded like a Dalek. It was either “Strong and Stable” or “Nothing has changed.” Repeat!! She relied on the tabloid press to sing her praises and was in desperate need of reboot but it never happened. The more the public saw of Maybot the more they did not like what they saw and the more they realised how distant, insincere and indecisive she was. The Conservative Manifesto was a disaster and the U turns kept coming soon after. It was clear you could not trust a word uttered. So here we are. People will say “but the Tories won! They got the most seats.” The reality is Mayhem was humiliated! She called this election with a 24 point lead over Labour and was so arrogantly complacent that Tories would win a landslide and Labour would be demolished at the ballot box. Mayhem did not get the majority she needed so she went with her begging bowl to the hard-right, racist, sexist, homophobic, terrorist linked and thoroughly unpleasant DUP to ask them to prop up her tory government. This in itself reeks of desperation and is doomed to fail. It also highlights her blatant hypocrisy. Jeremy Corbyn is a ‘terrorist sympathiser’ we’ve heard the right wing tabloids and their sheep shriek. So what now do you call Theresa Mayhem getting into bed with the DUP??? This is a regressive alliance with potentially far reaching implications for Northern Ireland and progressive politics in general. Instead of clinging on for dear life it would be far better if she resigned with what little dignity she has left. I have my popcorn out watching this mess unfold! Recriminations, resignations and Tory civil war no doubt! No matter which way you look at it this is the beginning of the end for Mayhem. She is toast! Anyway I am very encouraged by Labour’s election result. My support for Corbyn has never wavered and for the first time in ages I feel optimistic about what politics can achieve. First phase for Labour was winning UKIP votes back, attacking Tory seats/votes and galvanising young people which has worked brilliantly for us as we out performed expectations at this Election. The next phase now is securing a Labour victory at the next General Election which may well be sooner than you think….. Time for unity within Labour, this is our time. We must continue to organise and be a strong opposition! We must be the powerful voice for the many that this country so desperately needs. @gloss80

A temporarily blind Astrid Drabble?

A/N: Holy heck. I am, so terribly sorry that this took me so long to put out!!! I found it and decided to rewrite it aaaand,,, Well, this was the result! I’m so sorry that it took me forever to post this, @aracanabraeks​!! :’)(I think this one might be a little heavier than what I usually write? I’m not entirely sure, but I feel as if it’s necessary to note that it’s not super light and fluffy, or anything!)

Blink

 “Mostof the hindrances that you and your friends cause me are generally…unseen. And as the saying goes–an eye for an eye, no?” He’dsaid. “You needn’t worry, however. I’ve decided to be mercifulby letting you keep them, at the very least. How useful they’ll beto you is simply… undetermined.”

Therewas no ultimatum, no ulterior motive–Viggo wanted revenge for theRiders’ last stunt: the destruction of his marble stronghold. Theentire purpose of kidnapping Astrid was for the sake of making apoint.For the sake of gettingeven.

Hemade a formidable adversary, and part of that was due to the factthat he wasn’t afraid to employ tactics heavier on the…unscrupulousside…in order to get what he wanted. The fact that he so casually broughtthe Scourge of Odin back down upon the Barbaric Archipelago was proofenough, but yet another one of methods he utilized revolved aroundthe fact that prolonged and close-range exposure to an Armorwing’sflameresultedin (supposedly temporary)blindness–toboth dragon and viking. Such exposure was appropriately classified astorture.

…Andin both cases of blatant inhumanity, Astrid was a victim without a choice.

Thevery real threat of hurting Stormfly if she didn’t cooperate withthe Hunters was the only thing keeping her eyes open in the face ofthe Armorwing’s inferno. Every blink risked a scale off of her bestfriend’s back, a premature spine ripped off of her tail. Thistime… there was no way out of Viggo’s plot.

“Obedient,”he had mused from somewhere in the ship cellar, a tone of purecomplacency dripping from his voice, “I believe I expected a littlemore from you, Miss Hofferson.”

Shegrit her teeth and kept her hands–which had curled into fists–gluedto her sides.

Oneday, he would crumble at her feet.

Viggo’stricks were growing dirtier and dirtier, and the fact that Astridwasa prime target was–quite frankly–rapidly becoming veryirritating.

Shewas a pawn. A bargaining chip. She knew that, and while her capturehadn’t been her most graceful moments, she surely didn’t go downwithout resisting. In the end, whether or not she went with theHunters quietly or not didn’t matter, but it brought her a shred ofcomfort to know that she put up a fight. Of course, she promised togive them much morethanan axe to the gut and a kick in the groin when she recovered.

(…Ifsheever recovered. The thought made her heart sink impossibly further.)

Theyencountered her during her morning flight-slash-patrol around the island. 

They’dtaken both her and Stormfly–again.

Theyhadn’t even bothered to restrain her, but they did disarm her–andtheyput her very own axe to her dragon’s neck.

Theyforced a captured Armorwing (who Astrid vowed to help free as soon asshe was able) to sustain its flame, only a few feet from her face.

Theygave her a choice that wasn’t even a choice.

Theygave her an option–lose her sight indefinitely, or leave with hersight and her life… but without her dragon.

Butneveragain.Never again would Astrid allow the Hunters to have Stormfly in theircustody.

…Andso she stood, in the center of the cellar, steeling herself for whatwas to come.

Shedug the soles of her boots into the grain of the wood and squared hershoulders, and she furrowed her brow in fierce determination from thevery, very beginning. The Armorwing loomed before her, and the heatimmediately bordered unbearable. It hadn’t been long before she felta sheen of sweat broke out across her forehead–but how hot her skinwas paler in comparison to the intense burnhereyes promptly experienced.

Theyquickly felt as if they were going to begin to shrivel at any givenmoment–but when she began to squint or nearly blinked, Stormflytrilled. Woefullytrilled.

ForStormfly, shechanted in her head.

Theentire time, the ones she held dearest to her heart were on her mind.It was from thoughts of them that she drew her strength, herendurance–that, and pure spite.IfViggo thought he’d be guaranteed some sort of twisted gratificationfrom seeing her suffer, then he was sorelymistaken,because she had no intention of expressing her pain. She was strongerthan this–stronger than him, and whatever he tried to put up againsther!

Andyet…

…Very,very soon came the point where Astrid grew numb to the dragon’sflame, but could hardly stand to keep her eyes open any longer. Hervision clouded and became glazed with white, everything becominglighter and lighter with each passing second. She initially refusedto give the onlooking Hunters holding down Stormfly the satisfactionof hearing her cry out in pain, and instead elected to bite down onher lip to muffle any shouts that threatened to escape–

Buteven the mightiest were susceptible to being felled.

Astrid,knees wobbly, ended up collapsing to the ship’s floorboards withinless than a few minutes,witha broken, choked, patheticgaspfor air that wasn’t heated. The sustained fire had done its job,but it also seemed to devour the oxygen in the air. Her firm resolvehad been melted by the Armorwing’s intense flames, and she resortedto pressing the heels of her palms against her eyes, as if doing sowould somehow numb the sharp, stinging sensation.

Itwas over surprisingly quickly, but every moment felt like absoluteHel.And the aftermath?

Excruciating.Every single secondofit.

Whenshe felt her dragon thunder towards her and curl protectively aroundher person, Astrid finally pried her eyes open and blinked. The sharpfwhipofStormfly brandishing her barbed tail filled her ears, but her eyes…

Shesaw nothing but white.

Theystung with both welling tears and the lingering pain of having staredat a bright source of light for an extended period of time–but shedidn’t cry. As soon as they oh-so kindlyallowedStormfly to escort Astrid back to their base, the Hunters made aquick departure in the opposite direction of the Edge… and that wasthat.

Hercondition served as a message. A warning. A taunt.

AndOdin knew what Hiccup would do when he found out.

Whenshe was safely on Stormfly’s back and well in the air, she stilldidnot allow herself to cry, because crying was givingin.She could not see the sun or the morning sky–she just assumeditwas still morning. She could not see their base in the near distanceor the rolling hills and trees beneath her. She couldn’t even seethe crown of spikes on Stormfly’s head, but she clung to thedragon’s neck with such dependency anyway. Astrid wanted to tellthe Nadder to take her somewhere secluded, but despite the dragon’sloyalty, she knew that Stormfly would take her to her friends. Itwasn’t until she reached a tentative hand to her face that sherealized that she was crying anyway. She tried to blink away thetears.

Intrusivethoughts swarmed her mind relentlessly–how uselesstosaid friends she was now that she couldn’t see, whether or notshe’d be able to see atallinthe future, how they would react. How Hiccupwouldreact. Just thinking about it made her feel guilty, as if somehow,she could have prevented this from happening. 

Even though such wasimpossible, she knew she couldpreventthe impending carnage and cycle of revenge that was likely to takeplace when her condition was revealed, but how could she keepsomething such as being blindunderwraps? How could she pretend that her world wasn’t crashing down ontop of her?

Sheonly continued to imagine–no, predict–howher future was going to further fall apart.

Combatwould be next to impossible.

DragonRacing–if not just flying in general–was just… out of thequestion.

She’dnever see the sunset, or the exotic colors of every dragon theyencountered. She’d never see her mother or father or her friends oreven her future children–andit wouldn’t be because she wasn’t present, but it would be due toa physical incapability.

Everythingwas changing, all before her very eyes. The ones what she couldn’tseewith.

Evenafter Stormfly landed, presumably back at the stables, Astridcontinued to think.Her fingers trembled and her breaths were all ragged and strained,but she strove to find some reason deep within herself.

Wouldshe ever see again? Or was she stuck in a perpetually white world?The fact that she wasn’t seeing pitchblack waspromising, and it gave her a sliver of hope that she could somehowrecover. She clung to that shred of optimistic thought, because therewas still a chance for her to beat the odds and beatViggo,but as soon as she attempted to dismount Stormfly–

“Astrid!There you are!”

GreatThor.

Sheswallowed thickly and rubbed at her eyes as she slowly swung her legover Stormfly’s back. It was a motion she’s completed with suchease and confidence time and time again, but she’d suddenly…grown wary of her footing. All she wanted to do was curl up besideher dragon and reflect and be alone,butof courseHiccuphad to come around. Quickly attempting to recompose herself, heturned towards the source of his voice and blinked, thankful that herhearing was still intact.

Astriddidn’t know how long she could maintain the illusion that herencounter with the Hunters didn’thappenand that she couldstillsee, but she would try. She’d simply have to–for the sake ofkeeping order on the Edge. Her thoughts of her future and herhappiness be damned–they couldn’t afford to make any risky movesfor the sake of getting even, and getting even is exactlywhatViggo probably wanted them to do. If Astrid knew the Hunter’sleader at all, she knew that he tried to have everything planned downto the last confrontation.

“Hey,Hiccup,” she responded soon enough, offering a brief lift of herhand as wave. Her voice sounded unbearably tightandshe had no clue about how disheveled she may have looked, butStormfly ducked her head and nudged her shoulder so that she wouldface an entirelydifferentdirection.

Somuch for being secretive.

Astridplaced her palm on the Nadder’s horn for stability. She blinked.Her world went from white, to black, to white again.

Shecould only imagineHiccup’sperplexed expression. Literally. What he looked like at the momentwas a mystery to her and–

Oh,no.

No,no, no.

Whatif she forgets?

“…Astrid,is everything okay?”

Whatif she forgets what he looks like? His eyes. His smile–all of them.The goofy, crooked one and the jokingly serious one and the heartmeltingly adoring one and… What if she forgot her other friends,too? What they all look like? It was only a matter of time before anyand all hopes of her ever seeing again would be ultimately crushed,and then… And then she’d be stuck. She’d never see Stormfly orHiccup or her friends. She’d never see the sunrise or sunset orcoloratall–

Astridtried so desperatelytoremain composed and stay levelheaded, but with such a probablyreality looming on the horizon, how could she stay calmwhenit truly, finally hit her that her entire futurewasvery likely compromised? She relied so heavily on her sight thatliving without it…

…Wouldn’tbe living at all.

Sheblinked.

Suddenly,she felt her hair get tucked behind her ear and warm, calloused palmson either of her cheeks, and she stiffened, startled. The contactalone was enough to make her walls fall in around her, while herpreviously rigid expression crumpled into that of one conveyingagony.

“Astrid?Astrid,what–what happened out there? What did you see?”

Theirony.

Astridshook her head and barked out a single, humorless laugh. Her eyescontinued to burn with a dull intensity, partially because she wascrying even harder now, but she kept her hands to herself. The thingsthat she knewshecould do with her eyes closed now seemed to be completely foreign andimpossible–even throwing her arms around Hiccup in the way that sheusually did seemed hazardous.

Shesettled for squeezing her eyes shut. The darkness was comforting,because she could pretend that she was fine despite knowing shewasn’t.

“Astrid,look at me–”

“Nothing,”shefinally snapped, the sharp bite in her trembling voice evidently notdirected toward Hiccup. She pictured him wincing. “Nothing, okay? Ididn’t–I can’tseeanything.I can’tlookat you.” Astrid could hear Stormfly coo, and she imagined thatHiccup looked worriedly over at both of their dragons, seeking somesemblance of insight as he gathered her in an embrace.

“I–Idon’t–Astrid, what are you…?”

Shefelt his arms loop around her middle, so she managed to find hisshoulders. Astrid buried her face in the crook of his neck and simplystood there,leavingHiccup to try and decipher her cryptic response for the same amountof time it took for her to compose herself to the point where sheknewshewouldn’t break down. It was only when she became astutely aware ofthe fingers rubbing circles into the small of her back that she wasdrawn out of her bout of self pity.

Asingle name was enough to make Hiccup’s hold around her waist growsignificantly tighter. She was well aware of the shift in hisstature–from comforting to downright protectiveafterso much as hearing “Viggo” leave her lips.

“What,”Hiccup grit out, “did he do?”

Shetook a shuddery breath that wracked her chest and pulled her armsfrom around Hiccup’s shoulders. It didn’t make the pain subside,let alone help her fears for her future shrink, but the blonde soonset either of her hands on what she felt as the slope of Hiccup’sneck and slowly wrenched her eyes open. They stillburned.Everything was still bleary, still white.

Hiccupwas probably only inches away from her, but at the same time… Hewasn’t there.

(Butusing that logic, the moon didn’t exist and neither did theHunters. Astrid breathed deeply again. She blinked. It still didn’thelp.)

“Itwas an Armorwing,” she managed, willing strengthtoinject her quiet voice. Astrid knew that around Hiccup, there was noneed for her to remain strongindifficult times, but it was the only way she found herself capable ofspeaking to him. “Viggo–he, he wanted revenge. But you–youhaveto, to promise, promise me that you w-won’t do anything stupid.”

Astrid…Astrid was conflicted. On one hand, Hiccup had taught her thatemotion was natural,andthat they didn’t live in a world as brutal and ruthless as theyinitially thought. With the resurgence of a new massive threat intheir lives, however, that notion immediately caved in on itself.What wasshe,if not the resilient, hardy Hooligan that her people were known tobe? What happened to the viking who had so firmly believed inherself, and believed that she was stronger than anything Viggo triedto do to harm her?

“Astrid,”Hiccup said again, this time more sympatheticallyhurt,and it was as he’d said her name a million times over in the pastminute with different tones each instance. She knew that he wantedher to continue to explain.

“Hiccup,I’m–”

Shechoked on the next word, a sob ripping from her throat, becauseadmitting it made it real.Admitting it made it feel like Viggo won,and she’d be damned before she let something like that happen.Astrid felt Hiccup tense further, and she squeezed his shoulders,sniffling and breathing choppily.

“…Bl–ind.”

Itfelt like a massive wave crashing onto an unsuspecting shore. It hither like a Catastrophic Quaken barreling into her at full force,knocking the wind out of her lungs and sending her reeling.

Shewas blind.

Sheblinked. Astrid felt as if her mind was still foggy with disbeliefand sheer horror,but saying it out loud… It helped. Somehow, it helped, and deepdown, she knew that acceptingitwas the first step to overcomingit.

Hiccup’ssilence, however, was terriblyconcerning.Astrid lifted a shaky hand to thread her fingers through his hairwith slight uncertainty. She couldn’t use her thumb to smooth awaythe creases in his brow that she knew were there, so she had tosettle instead. His presence was grounding, and it made her thinkmore practically–it made her realize that the only thing left to dowas cope,notcry.

Ithurt, but knowing that he was worried about her… hurt more.

“Maybeit’s temporary–”

“Hiccup…”

“Wecan get you to Berk and have Gothi–”

“Hiccup–”

“Astrid,we can still–”

“Youknow,” Astrid interjected (again), “all I could think about washow useful those Deathsong amber goggles you made would have been,”she whispered, fingers curling at the hair at nape of his neck. Shethen pressed her palm to his cheek and leaned forward–he got thememo, thankfully, and their foreheads met. She thoughthehad his face committed to memory, but now that the situation requiredher to draw upon those memories, they were… Gone?

Notgone,but buried.

Byfear.

Byanger.

Byirrational thought.

Sheblinked. She smothered those feelings by reminding herself thatletting them fester would only make matters worse.

“I’msor–”

“Don’t,”Astrid interjected, both pleadingly and in warning. He wiped histhumb against the corner of one of her eyes, presumably to wipe awayher tears, but she squeezed them shut reflexively. “Don’tapologize.”

“…”

“What’sdone is done,” she said, her tone indicating that what she had tosay was final, though it retained its shakiness. Astrid tried sodesperately to sound okay,but…“Apologizingwon’t, c-can’t change–this.”Astridwaved a hand toward her face.

“Iwas… just going to say that–I, I’m here,Astrid. You were there for me, and… And now it’s my turn.”

…Itdawned on her then.

Thevalue she had was not determined by, nor was it reliant, the heightof the senses. Despite lacking her sight entirely, what she said wastrue–the only way to go about her life at this point?

Work past it.

Learna little morefromHiccup.

Swiftly,and with practiced ease, she pressed a kiss to the apple of his cheekbefore slipping out of his arms to find her dragon, ignoring thestrain of keeping her eyes open. The rough texture of Stormfly’sscales was beneath her fingertips in mere seconds–Astrid didn’thesitate once in pulling herself onto the Nadder’s back.

Shewasn’t okay. She was far from okay.

Butshe was guaranteed not to be okay for the rest of her life if she didn’t at least try to move forward.

“Whereare you–”

“Thefirst thing you did was fly,” Astrid reminded him, squaring hershoulders as she curled her fingers against the bar of Stormfly’ssaddle. She sucked in a deep breath. “And that’s exactly what I’mgoing to do.”

IfViggo Grimborn thought he could eliminate AstridHofferson fromthe game, he was painfully mistaken. Sightor no sight, she’d overcome the trials set out before her–shealways had, anyhow.

Sheblinked.

10 Potential Black Swans and Opportunities for the US Economy in 2017

We’ve reached that wonderful time of year when financial pundits pull out their forecaster hats and take a crack at the future. This time the exercise is particularly interesting because we’re at several turning points. Any one of them could remake the entire year overnight.

I should probably say up front that I am actually somewhat optimistic about 2017—optimistic, meaning I think we will Muddle Through—but that’s a lot better outcome than I was expecting five months ago. However, midcourse corrections may be warranted.

Instead of trying to answer questions about the future, I’ll try to list those we should be asking as 2017 opens.

We can’t afford for any of the major components of the global economy to break down; so, it’s smart to ask, “Where are the weak points?” That’s what we’ll do today. We’ll poke at the economic mechanism as it grinds along.

Trumping DC

The biggest change will happen in Washington DC when Donald Trump takes office. Aside from the changes he can make on his own authority, he’ll be in position to approve the many Republican initiatives that President Obama blocked. Here are some items I’m watching.

Tax reform: Our monstrosity of a tax system needs major reconstruction: a reduction and simplification of corporate taxes, a significant reduction of the individual income tax, and replacement of the Social Security tax with a VAT-like consumption tax. What will come out of the House is still unknown.

My sources are telling me House members want to pass an initial tax cut quickly and defer the more complicated changes for later in the year. The easy initial tax cut is to remove the Obamacare tax when they repeal Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act), which it appears they will do early in the session.

Final thoughts on taxes: Some industries will suffer massive impacts if you slap tariffs on incoming goods. Further, putting a high tariff on products that are sold at Walmart and Costco and on Amazon is massively inflationary to those shoppers (and that’s most of us).

These policies can be tricky, and the consequences can have a big impact on consumer confidence.

Energy: The Obama administration’s heavy-handed environmental regulations are a major impediment to US energy independence. Trump can change many of them quickly because they came in the form of executive orders and rulemaking that doesn’t require congressional approval.

Trump can also approve some of the Arctic and offshore drilling projects that Obama would not consider. I am told that there are some $50 billion worth of oil-production projects that are ready to go, which would be a massive source of high-paying jobs.

If he wants to play hardball with OPEC, Trump could even impose a tariff on imported petroleum products that we can produce here (as opposed to the raw crude, especially heavy crudes, that we currently don’t produce). That would give domestic producers and refiners a further boost. It would also aggravate the rest of the world’s oil glut.

Economic stimulus: We have plenty of shovel-ready projects, or could create them in short order, that would create jobs and simplify trade and travel. Some will not be very profitable in the short run, so they may not happen under a tax-credit scheme.

Trade: Import-dependent businesses are on pins and needles right now, hoping the Trump administration doesn’t turn toward the kind of protectionism some of the new appointees have advocated in the past. We’ll see. The president has considerable latitude in this area, so almost anything is possible.

Banking: One reason the stock market has gone bananas since the election is the prospect of banking deregulation. Wall Street has been chafing under the Dodd-Frank Act’s requirements and restrictions. The Volcker Rule on proprietary trading has clearly worsened bond market liquidity and taken a major revenue center away from the banks.

The Dodd-Frank Act as presently constructed could actually aggravate matters if we find ourselves in another financial crisis. Dodd-Frank prevents the Federal Reserve from stepping in with liquidity and instead says that the FDIC should “resolve” any failing banks.

I see the point, but the main reason we have a central bank is to be a lender of last resort to the banking system. The FDIC simply can’t act fast enough, nor does it have the ability or the cash to act effectively in a crisis. Congress needs to fix this soon.

Finally, Dodd-Frank puts our regional and small community banks at a massive disadvantage. They get all of the costs and are restricted from their normal activities. Overhauling Dodd-Frank will be a big boon to entrepreneurs and small businesses and will create jobs.

Federal Reserve: We should also see at least two nominees to the Fed’s Board of Governors soon after Trump takes office. He may get a third one if Daniel Tarullo leaves, as some observers expect. He will get to nominate both the chair and vice chair next year, and it is likely that the remaining members will think about leaving as well when Yellen departs. But the early nominees will tell us a lot about Trump’s priorities and long-term plans—hopefully for the better.

Meanwhile, the Fed is in the middle of a long-overdue policy turn. There’s still a risk that they will find they started tightening just in time for a recession, which is also long overdue.

Surprises and Black Swans

Black swans aren’t a risk limited to the world of finance; they happen in politics too. Such an event could push aside all the best-laid plans and change everything.

Canadian bubble: Our neighbors to the north are at their own turning point. The Canadian economy was riding high in the commodity boom but has run into problems after two years of sharply lower oil prices. Since then Canada has avoided recession but has not enjoyed much growth.

Canada also has a housing bubble that looks increasingly ready to pop. House prices have little to do with oil and everything to do with Chinese buying property.

What happens in Canada will tell us something important about China and vice versa. Anything that keeps Chinese money from leaving China will raise the odds of Canada’s bubble popping.

US energy policy matters to Canada too. The country’s huge oil sands deposits would help its export balance, but in some cases the best access requires pipelines through the US, like the Keystone that Obama has held up. Trump can help Canada by letting that project go forward.

Crowded exits in Europe: I thought there was a good chance the Italian bank crisis would come to a head in 2016. The Italians seem to have yet again delayed the inevitable. Reality hasn’t fundamentally changed, though. Troubled institutions are not going to get better on their own, nor is the new government going to miraculously gain public confidence.

Saving Italian banks will take multiple hundreds of billions of euros, which Italy does not have, nor do they technically even have the legal right to unilaterally bail these banks out. They would have to utilize an ECB facility that does not now exist to get that much money, and such a measure would require German approval.

I keep telling you that Italy is the most dangerous economic issue on the world front. Attention must be paid.

That said, Europe is quite capable of staving off disaster. They are professionals at that. They can do it again this time if nothing else goes wrong. That’s a big if.

NATO: The defense alliance partially overlaps with the EU but also includes Turkey. Trump wants the other member states to increase their defense spending. He says, correctly, that they aren’t paying their fair share and has openly questioned whether the US would come to their aid in an attack.

The Baltic countries and Poland are very concerned, as they are the most exposed to potential Russian aggression.

Does Putin intend to attack and try to occupy one of those countries? I really rather doubt he will, but he can cause all kinds of problems without attacking. Fear alone is sufficiently troublesome.

As with Italy, though, fear has consequences. Leaders can juggle only so much. When too many things happen at once, the risk rises that someone will drop a ball.

Asian angst: Relationships within Asia are in flux, to say the least. Trump’s phone call with the Taiwanese president and subsequent comments show he’s willing to roll back prior commitments in order to get better ones. We could see some major changes in 2017.

China has other problems too. They are holding the domestic economy together with astonishing amounts of debt. New liquidity can’t leave the country due to capital controls, but it has to go somewhere. The result is rolling asset bubbles that make even Vancouver housing prices look flat.

The transition from an economy driven by exports to one led by domestic demand is probably going as well as it can, but that’s not saying much. The process may accelerate if Trump has his way.

Over in Japan, something interesting is happening. The job market is unbelievably tight. I saw in a Wall Street Journal report last week that each available worker has two job offers on average. The unemployment rate is historically low.

In a normal market, you would expect employers to compete for workers by raising wages, right? But it isn’t happening. Wages are flat or even falling. Deflation has changed the psychology for two generations of workers and managers. Employees are afraid to demand more, and companies are afraid to pay more.

It’s also a potentially ominous sign for the US. The Fed and many others are watching labor markets closely for signs of wage inflation. Rising wages are one of the factors that would justify tighter interest-rate policies. Yet, Japan shows that unemployment can stay low for years without necessarily causing wage inflation.

Japan is another potential target of Trump’s trade policy. Unlike China, Japan really is devaluing its currency. The policy is working too, in terms of promoting exports. But those exports don’t all go to the United States. Japan sells China much of its industrial equipment and technology, demand for which will presumably drop if Trump succeeds in reducing Chinese exports.

Final Thoughts

We enter 2017 with more question marks than I can count. Even if all the policymakers are competent and have good intentions, stuff happens.

Now, more than ever, economic risk around the world emanates from our governments and central banks.

Trump has the traditional 100 days to deliver something to keep the optimism going. Hopefully, a Congress that is nominally Republican controlled can agree on important measures and move more quickly than we have seen it move in quite a while.

There have been only a few times when I was not optimistic about the coming year, but thankfully this is again one of the optimistic times. I’m actually as pumped as I have been in a long time.

2016 has been a year of major surprises. Frankly, I think 2017 has the potential to offer even more challenges than 2016 did.

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5/15/18

“Jesus christ, it seems like the only time I update this thing is when I’m talking about a girl”

Buckle up, fuckers.

This past semester I’ve become more active in [college]’s Philosophy Club. It’s been a really good experience so far. I’ve been doing a fair amount of the media for the club by way of making fliers and so forth. The meetings mostly consist of someone presenting a philosophical topic, and the group having a Socratic discussion about it. Somehow, and I really have no idea how, I was nominated for the position of vice president, and by an even stranger turn of events, I won. As a result, I began attending more events only tangentially related to the club’s activities: outreach, advertising and so forth. The other newly elected members did as well, which is where I met A-----.

Because I’ve spent the last twelve or so weeks debating various philosophical concepts with a group that included her, I have a pretty decent understanding of where she stands on most major issues. The weird thing is, despite how polar opposite we are in terms of beliefs, it seems like we have a genuine connection. I should preface this by saying I’m being optimistic. In this situation, it can only go one of two ways. It could go turn out that our differences are too great, and we’ve just overlooked them in the midst of the fog that is early relationship fodder. She is after all, very conservative. She’s Catholic, doesn’t use drugs, and seems very innocent. On the other hand, she’s fascinating. She’s going to school to be a criminal psychologist (who isn’t, but she seems really passionate about it after a year of it), as a result she has a fascination with serial killers. She’s also this odd straight-edge punk rock chick. I’ve met people like her before who I always crushed on, but she’s the first one who showed any interest. She likes local music, arts, and seems far more cultured than I. The alternative, that I hope ends up being the case, is we can make it work, based only on how much we like each other as people.

I don’t want to get ahead of myself. We’ve been on two “dates” that we didn’t call dates, but for all intents and purposes, were dates. We’ve really only known each other for a few weeks, but she definitely has a crush on me. She’s so innocent and young though. She doesn’t know about all the shit I’ve done. She has no idea what a horrible person I am, or at least, what a horrible person I think I am. I’m worried if she gets to know me she’ll entirely lose interest, but I also don’t want to lie to her. Bojack Horseman said it best, “Do you ever get the feeling that to know you more is to love you less?” I do.

So I find myself in this predicament. I can allow something to come of this, or I can cut it off before it’s too late and we all get hurt. I’m not sure what to do. On the one hand, as one who is more or less addicted to being in a relationship, I miss the rush that comes with a girl laughing and touching your shoulder like a junkie misses the needle. On the other hand, if I do pursue this, and something bad happens, the one group of friends I actually met organically, and enjoy being around, the Philosophy Club, becomes a weird place where I have to face an ex.

I should be more optimistic, but I’ve just done this too many times in the past. Good things never last, and bad things always remain, you can just forget about them for a little while.

Indexes red, Star chamber goes live, How can this be happening, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Monday morning.

New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/30514-2/

Indexes red, Star chamber goes live, How can this be happening, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Monday morning.

The indexes are off this Monday morning almost 1/2%. @CL -1% TLT +.35% and $Vix.x +10.38%

This is a bearish configuration. There is a reasonable chance of a trend day down today. Whenever you get Vix.x plus over 7% the downside is usually the way things go.

We are overbought so a pullback is overdue. What to watch for? The duration and % drop of the pullback.

I doubt I will be trading to the long side this morning on swings. There will be a strong headwind. As far as short trades right now I do not have any on my radar.

I exited my short FXE on Friday for about a 1.5% gain. I am still long TLT and am underwater on this trade for now.

I suspect that the upcoming public star chamber in the House has made the markets nervous. Schiff is ruling the proceedings in a way that Goebels would be proud of him. No due process, No witnesses approved by the other side, no attorneys allowed (except of course lawfare to help Schiff out). A real true to life star chamber designed to overthrow the presidency.

So as an outside observer looking in, for a country that prides itself on due process, and equal protection under the law, how can this be happening? Where are the checks and balances that would prevent a totalitarian event like this to occur?

Well, the answer is the U.S. political and justice system has broken down. It’s that simple. Years of corruption, years of voter apathy, years of extremists infiltration the U.S. teaching institutions and of course the infiltration of the media have created the perfect storm for the U.S.

Human nature is a delicate thing. You can behold untold kindness and beauty from humans on one end of the spectrum but on the other end, you can behold horrors that beyond comprehension. This is nothing new. It has been going on for 1000s of years. It would be illogical to think it would change because after all, humans are human.

What has changed is the horror end is now reaching the shores of the U.S. They have been isolated to a degree observing the horrors in other countries, like Germany and the Holocaust, the genocide in Africa, the human rights abuses in China, and I could go on and on.

But there has been a shift. It started in Western Europe where we have seen first hand the results. And is now here in the U.S. And Americans are acting like a deer in headlights. They watch with amazement and go on with their lives like nothing is happening. Can you blame them? After all, Americans have had it very good here. Freedoms that almost no one else in the world has.

So, in their defense, I can see why they are not that concerned. And many get their news from the mainstream media. So, of course, they are being brainwashed into thinking the problem is Trump Trump Trump. There are thinking Americans that observe and know what is going on. They are not only Republicans but also Democrats and independents that are worried. And rightfully so.

I am an oddsmaker. A handicapper. I quantify things that tend to be unquantifiable. That has always been my long suit over the years. Anyone can quantify the quantifiable, but the unquantifiable requires a certain skill. And without bragging I have it. I always have as long as I can remember.

I have friends that are mathematically inclined that I could not begin to think the way they process. I have had many bridge partners that were in that category. And I have seen many poker players that excelled at that. But give them a situation that is not prone to mathematical analysis and they tend to be lost.

What we are observing now in the U.S. falls into the unquantifiable. And the conclusions I am coming to disturb me. When you have a star chamber in the House with no protections that is a continuation of a coup to overthrow the President that started on day 1, and you have bands of Antifa roaming around terrorizing innocent people with our politicians either remaining silent or encouraging them, something is way off in the U.S. Not somewhat off, but way off.

I am not going to quantify anything right now for you as it will depress you. But let’s leave it that I am not optimistic as to the outcome of how the U.S. transforms when all is said and done.

At this point, it would require extreme measures to reverse what is occurring. Measures that Americans have no stomach for. But in 5 to 10 years they will have wished they did.

So where does this leave us on the markets? For the time being, we are in the best six months of the year but we are approaching the star chamber and an eventual trial in the Senate. This will not be good for the markets, nor will it be good for the American people. The media will be in high gear with 24/7 propaganda and the pressure on the Senate if it gets that far will be like none you have seen before.

There will be bribes, blackmail, death threats, all designed to get our Senators to convict Trump. They will be attacked in the media. It will not be a pretty sight.

So I expect that before long the markets are going to fall. Until this gets straightened out one way or another.

Let’s look at the political odds before I leave this morning:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 46/54 No Change

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 No Change ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/21 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt Warren: 19/81 No Change Biden: 13/77 +1 Pt Buttigieg 11/89 No Change Sanders 10/90 +1 Pt Bloomberg 4/96 -4 Pts Clinton 4/96 No Change

LA Governor’s race 60/40 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) -10 PTS

KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change

MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 43/57 – 1 Pt I laid 40/60

No real significant changes. The odds are not giving Bloomberg much of a chance at getting the nomination.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

Giving Bookies Heavy Beatz to Keeping Fash Off Our Streets

Ok Kidz, So let’s see how the Investment Portfolio is performing this season, update on some old and new positions plus a little bit of politics. Politics I was very proud to be part of a successful counter demonstration to the far right DFLA in London . We blocked their path at one stage which led to them being re-routed. No Pasaran. No time for complacency though as media darling Stephen Yaxley-Lennon aka Tommy Knobinson will be keen to put the Forces of Darkness back on the streets. 

Family Big Summer in the IceMan Family with Little Miss IceMan getting married to an Accountant (who can help count my winning). The occasion meant Mr and Mrs IceMan Junior travelled over from the States to attend so we had a fantastic get together. 

Football Championship. Backed Derby at 5/1 for promotion and they sit in a play off position and only two points off an automatic promotion slot. Frank Lampard has some exciting young players in his squad and I expect them to be in the shake up come end of season . Now trading at 100/30 so an (IcePrice). 

League One Charlton made a good start and caretaker-manager Lee Bowyer was appointed permanent manager off the back of it . Have gone backwards a bit lately and sit 5 points off a play off berth but have a game in hand . Backed at 9/2 for promotion but currently trade at a generous 10/1 so (ShitePrice) . Still hope they can remain competitive in chasing a play off place. 

League Two Mansfield taken at 9/4 for promotion are now 7/4 so (IcePrice). This side have a habit of drawing too many games when throwing away winning positions . They should be challenging for automatic promotion but find themselves 6 points shy of the play offs. However they have 2 games in hand and I remain optimistic their fortunes will improve. 

National League I did not originally make a pick in this Division as I was reluctant to take on firm favourites Salford. However after a couple of rounds of games I was surprised to see Leyton Orient available at 13/2 for promotion. I had to have some of that and it has turned out to be a nice touch . They now sit on top of the league and trading at 6/4 (IcePrice). Still a hard division to get out of and Salford are only a point behind. 

Scottish Championship Got on Ross County at 5/2 to win this league. They sit nicely on top and trade at 4/6 (IcePrice) . This is obviously going well but I am not as happy as these odds would suggest. They have a one point margin over Ayr and a dangerous Dundee United are notŵ out of it. 

Scottish League One Well every season there is always one shocker and this year it looks like Airdrie. Backed each way so I get a pay out if they come in top three. Thought 8/1 was good value but they are now 33/1 ( total ShitePrice).They are currently 6 points adrift of third place but their form has gone to pieces and they are fast moving backwards. This club is situated in the infamous Buckfast Triangle and it seems their players may have been on the brew. 

Scottish League Two backed Clyde last season and to be fair they let me down . However they finished strongly and I was hoping some of that momentum would carry through to this season . They did in fact start brightly but their form has fallen way recently and they are 9 points behind shock leaders Edinburgh City and probably more ominously have given a 7 point head start to Peterhead as well . Took 11/4 and remarkably they still trade at 5/1 (ShitePrice) which suggests someone thinks they can improve. I though think this is in the loss column with Airdrie. 

Bits and Bobs (new). Not many new positions taken and just as well as looking at the state of these two I seem to have been distracted by wedding events  . NFL dunno why I bother but had a great tip that Jacksonville Jaguars were overpriced at 22/1 and so it looked as they started brilliantly and the odds tumbled to 11/1. This was then followed by four losses on the spin and an incident with a unpaid bar bill in London. Anyways price has gone out to 66/1  (total ShitePrice). The other recent bet was Athletico Madrid 16/1 Champions League . Had an easy looking group and good track record so what could go wrong. Well they got thrashed the other night 4-0 by Dortmund . There are somehow still trading at  my price but I have gone very cool on them.

Bits and Bobs (old) Shame my GAA positions on Galway went down the pan . The Gaelic football was always  a long shot but very disappointed about the Hurling . Galway started the game as strong favourites but were turned over by a determined Limerick team.

Lost on the long-standing Ryder Cup Golf bet. Had backed USA who got thrashed by Europe.  This one did not hurt as much as Galway because had USA won then Trump would have claimed a slice of the Glory. Speaking of the racist, misogynistic , narcissistic hate monger, let’s hope he takes a beating in the  upcoming mid term elections . Predictions are he will keep the senate possibly strengthening his position due to the seats that are up for election at this cycle. However it is expected that he will lose the House which means Democrats can protect the Mueller investigation and pursue His dodgy tax returns. (unless he finds a reason to claim the election is void) Sad to say Kurdish led SDF forces have been taking a lot of losses as a result of ‘Daesh’ attacks on the Syrian/ Iraqi border. Hoping they can regroup and defend territory against islamofash.  

So that’s it.

Siamso Tutti Anti Fascisti 

IceMan Investment Portfolio - More in Return 

[Ilya Somin] Should Local Governments Have Greater Autonomy from States?

In recent years, there has been extensive focus on legal and political conflicts between states and the federal government. Dissenting states seek greater autonomy from federal dictates. Ongoing legal battles over Obamacare and sanctuary cities are just the latest examples of this phenomenon. But we have also seen a less-well known trend of conflict between states and local government. New articles by prominent legal scholars on opposite sides of the political spectrum contend that local governments should have greater autonomy from states. They make a solid case. But actually achieving increased autonomy will not be easy.

Libertarian-leaning conservative law professor Glenn Reynolds (most famous as the founder of the Instapundit blog), has an article focusing on the plight of conservative rural areas subject to the dictates of urban-dominated state legislatures in blue states. As he points out, their complaints have led to the rise of secession movements in states like California and Oregon. Here is his abstract, summarizing the piece:

This short piece looks at the growing phenomenon of intra-state secession movements. From California, where plans have been floated to split the state into two, five, or six pieces, to more traditional secessionist movements in Eastern Oregon and Eastern Washington, to plans to separate upstate New York and downstate Illinois from the large metropolitan areas that dominate state politics, various states are facing internal separatist movements. The paper looks at the sources of the dissatisfaction driving these movements, and suggests a number of solutions to address that dissatisfaction without amending the Constitution or adding stars to the flag.

From the opposite side of the political spectrum, University of Virginia law professor Rick Schragger (a leading academic expert on local government) has an important new article focused on growing red state legislative efforts to restrict the autonomy or blue urban enclaves within their jurisdiction:

American cities are under attack. The last few years have witnessed an explosion of preemptive legislation challenging and overriding municipal ordinances across a wide-range of policy areas. City-state conflicts over the municipal minimum wage, LGBT anti-discrimination, and sanctuary city laws have garnered the most attention, but these conflicts are representative of a larger trend toward state aggrandizement. These legal challenges to municipal regulation have been accompanied by an increasingly shrill anti-city politics, emanating from both state and federal officials. This Article describes this politics by way of assessing the nature of—and reasons for—the hostility to city lawmaking. It argues that anti-urbanism is a long-standing and enduring feature of American federalism and seeks to understand how a constitutional system overtly dedicated to the principles of devolution can be so hostile to the exercise of municipal power. The Article also provides a current accounting of state preemptive legislation and assesses the cities' potential legal and political defenses. It concludes that without a significant rethinking of state-based federalism the American city is likely to remain vulnerable.

Both Reynolds' rural red enclaves in blue states and Schragger's urban blue enclaves in red states could potentially benefit from increased local autonomy from states. Greater local control might have important systemic advantages, as well. The most obvious is that more people in both blue and red states could live under the types of policies they like. In addition, greater devolution of power to the local level can increase opportunities for people to "vote with their feet." It is usually cheaper and easier to move from one city to another in the same region, than to decamp to a different state. And foot voting is often a better mechanism of political freedom than ballot box voting, because foot voters have a far higher chance of making a meaningful decision, and much stronger incentives to be well-informed.

It is neither possible nor desirable to devolve every issue to the local level. Some problems are so large-scale that they can only be handled at the state, national, or even international level. Global warming is an obvious example of the latter. The importance of foot voting suggests the need to restrict local control over immobile assets, such as property in land, which cannot be moved in response to exploitative local policies. Such policies also often have the effect of eliminating valuable opportunities for foot voting, most notably in the case of restrictive zoning rules that lock out the poor and lower middle class, cutting them off from valuable job opportunities. Still, there are large potential gains from devolving power over a wide range of issues where there is little risk of losing economies of scale or destroying foot voting opportunities.

Increasing local autonomy from states will not be an easy task, however. Secession movements aimed at forming new states are one possible route. But, as Reynolds explains, the odds are stacked against them, because breaking up an existing state requires the consent of both Congress and that state's own legislature.

Reynolds advocates federal legislation to protect local autonomy against the states. But it is not clear what incentive Congress would have to pass it. After all, most members of Congress (especially senators elected in state-wide elections) represent the dominant political majority within their states - the very group whose power dissenting localities seek to escape. In addition, increased congressional intervention in state-local relations might well result in greater imposition of homogeneity rather than less.

Both Reynolds and Schragger consider the possibility of state-level reform, granting greater autonomy to localities. Where feasible, this may well be the best option. But, it too, usually requires the support of the very same state legislatures that are undermining local autonomy to begin with.

Schragger also considers a number of innovative legal arguments that would enable federal courts to carve out greater autonomy for localities, such as expanding Tenth Amendment "anti-commandeering" rules to protect local governments against the states in much the same ways they currently shield both states and localities from the federal government. I have doubts about the validity of these theories. And, as Schragger recognizes, it is unlikely that the Supreme Court will endorse them in the near future.

In my view, Reynolds and other commentators may underestimate the potential viability of creating new states through secession. Such efforts are clearly an uphill battle. But state legislatures might agree to them if, as a result, they end up with a more ideologically homogeneous state where currently dominant forces have greater control. Financial incentives might also help lead to agreement - if the newly formed state was willing to give some sort of separation payment or "divorce bill" to its former state government, as the United Kingdom will have to do in order to leave the European Union. Congress, in turn, might consent if secession could be managed in such a way as to avoid altering the partisan balance of power in the Senate. For example, large states such as California and Texas coulld be partitioned in ways that create equal numbers of new Democratic and Republican states. The creation of new states through secession has occurred a few times in American history, as with the establishment of Maine and West Virginia in the nineteenth century. Perhaps the practice can be revived. Still, doing so is unlikely to be either quick or easy.

I am not optimistic that we can achieve a major increase in local autonomy from state governments in the near future. But the debate over this question is just starting to heat up again. It is possible that new strategies for devolution can be developed. From that standpoint, increased interest in the issue on different sides of the political spectrum is a hopeful sign.

Robert J. Sawyer: Hugo, Nebula, and Campbell Memorial Award-winning Science Fiction Writer

This month we’ve got a special guest joining us to chat about his work. Robert J. Sawyer is a Canadian science fiction author who is a Hugo, Nebula, Heinlein, and Campbell Memorial Award-winning writer. His work has been seen through his novels such as Hominids, Mindscan and his latest work Quantam Night. His novel FlashForward was also adapted into a U.S. television series on ABC. He is also a member of the Order of Canada and one of eight writers (and the only Canadian) in history to win all three of the science fiction field’s top honors for best novel of the year. So I am honored to welcome Robert to the blog to discuss his writing!

Robert J. Sawyer, thank you for joining us. Can you share with us how you first got into writing?

Like so many people, I was lucky enough to have some very encouraging teachers in school.  As it happened, I had the same teacher for fifth grade and sixth grade, although she got married over the summer, so in the first of those she was Miss Matthews and in the second she was Mrs. Jones; I was precocious to enough to know that her first name was Patricia.  This was the late 1960s, and there was no such thing as a school photocopier or a home computer, so I was writing stories by hand on foolscap.  She loved my stories and had me copy out duplicates of them by hand so she could keep a copy, too.  If she’s held onto them, she might get something for them on eBay today.

Starting in my teenage years, I got serious about wanting to be a writer.  I submitted my first short story to a magazine in August 1976, when I was sixteen years old.  It took three more years before actually sold something, in January 1980, when I was nineteen.  The Strasenburgh Planetarium in Rochester, New York, had a science fiction short story writing contest judged by Isaac Asimov; I was one of the winners.  Only at eighty-five American dollars, but it might as well been a million: I knew this was what I wanted to do for the rest of my life.

Your latest novel, Quantam Night, is a Canadian national mainstream bestseller, and it hit number one on the hardcover bestsellers list published in Locus, the American trade Journal of science fiction and fantasy fields.  It’s just been reissued in paperback. It has political relations to the recent election results in the United States of America. What insight can you share with us about the book?

Quantum Night is in part about the rise of the far right authoritarian president of the United States with disastrous consequences for undocumented immigrants, for relations with Canada, and for world peace. As a science-fiction writer, I’m usually happy when one of my predictions comes true; sadly, that’s not the case this time.

Nonetheless, it’s easy to explain megalomaniacal, narcissistic, indeed psychopathic people like Adolf Hitler or Donald Trump lusting for power.  What’s hard to explain is why so many people mindlessly follow them.  Now, when you think about what I just said – “mindlessly” – you automatically assume that I mean that metaphorically.  But one of the great story-generating engines for science fiction is to take a notion that we always think of as metaphorical and treat it as literal, and so I asked myself the question: what if the followers of authoritarians were literally mindless?  That is, what if they were what the Australian consciousness researcher David Chalmers has called “philosopher’s zombie” – beings that to outward appearances seem fully conscious but in reality aren’t; the lights are on, but nobody’s home.

The thing I like to do most in a science-fiction novel is juxtapose disciplines that normally never come in contact.  And so I developed a plot that brought together an experimental psychologist with a quantum physicist to try to determine whether in fact truly mindless followers might really exist.

Quantum Night is part thriller, part character study, part political commentary, and, of course, I hope, wholly entertaining.

What makes Quantum Night different from your previous releases?

The fact that it starts out with a negative view of humanity; I’m known as an optimistic writer, and, in the end, I think Quantum Night is an optimistic book, but it definitely is darker in tone than anything since my Hugo Award-nominated genetics thriller Frameshift, which came out in 1997, twenty years ago.

Out of your vast bibliography, what was your most memorable novel to write? Or is each novel its own unique milestone in your life?

Each one is certainly a unique experience.  That said, in an odd way, my 1998 novel Illegal Alien was the most memorable because I wrote it so quickly; it just came pouring out through my fingertips after I’d finished my research.  That novel was a courtroom drama with an extraterrestrial defendant, and once I was fully versed in trying homicide cases it was absolutely clear to me how to tell that tale and I got it done very quickly.

You also teach and have public speaking about writing science fiction, how did you get into this line of work?

I actually do more futurism speaking than I do talking about science fiction.  What’s the difference, you might ask?  Well, when I’m giving a talk as a science-fiction writer, I’m lucky to get $250; when I’m speaking to a corporation or government agency as a futurist, my fee is $5,000 and up.

I got started when a fellow named Pete McGarvey, who knew of me from Toronto science-fiction fandom, took a chance in 2000.  He needed a speaker for a convention of life-insurance brokers, and he wanted someone who to get them to think about how their industry might change as medical science continue to prolong our lives.  The talk was a big hit, and soon I was getting keynote invitations from other groups, starting with another life-insurance association that was having its annual meeting in Reno, Nevada.  It just grew from there: an artificial-intelligence conference in Calgary at which Ray Kurzweil and I were the two keynote speakers; the annual convention of Canada’s biopharmaceutical and health-technology industry in Montreal; the Canadian Association of Science Centres in Edmonton; The Council on Licensure, Enforcement and Regulation conference in Phoenix – it just snowballed, usually with a person who’d seen me at one conference suggesting me to a committee for another.

Beyond the FlashForward novel being adapted into film, what other work have you done for television?

Like most people working in television and film, the majority of what I’ve written and been paid for is never actually been produced.  I’ve been commissioned to write two feature films, two television pilots (one of which had William Shatner as an executive producer, and Bill and I went around pitching it together in Hollywood), a series bible for a revival of Robotech, a couple of other series bibles including the one that was used for the TV series Charlie Jade, treatments for TV miniseries, and more.

Science fiction is your primary genre focus, are there genres you like or do not like writing?

Science fiction is my primary genre focus because I get to write all other genres as well. Golden Fleece is science fiction but also a murder mystery. My Nebula winner, The Terminal Experiment, is science fiction but also a thriller.  As I said earlier, Illegal Alien is science fiction but also a courtroom drama.  Rollback is science fiction but also a romance.  Red Planet Blues is science fiction but also noir detective fiction. No genre gives you more latitude than science fiction.

Did you ever see your writing career taking you where you are today?

Honestly, no.  I never thought I’d make a living at this; I always thought it’d just be a sideline.  I’ve been very, very lucky, and I know it.

Thank you again Robert for joining us to chat about your writing. It has been a pleasure to discuss your work and learn about some of your background.

You can find Robert J. Sawyer’s work on his website at sfwriter.com. His latest novel Quantum Night is available in a number of formats found here.

Robert is also active on social media sites such as Goodreads, Twitter and Facebook.

The 10 Types of Content That Work Best for SEO – Whiteboard Friday

Published by randfish

Rand has recognized the 10 unique information sorts that function best for SEO and categorized which platforms are suited to particular inquiries after examining countless SERPs in the last couple weeks. In the Whiteboard Friday of today’s, he describes these content sorts and just how to make use of browser intention to fulfill, complement them towards the correct tasks, and improve your general technique.

Click the whiteboard picture above to start a higher-quality edition in a bill that is brand new!

Movie Transcription

Hi, welcome to a different version of Friday, and Moz followers. This week we are likely to talk about the kinds of information, content platforms that often work very well for SEO, and I am speaking particularly about content in the place of kind of an ecommerce item site or perhaps a contact site or these kinds of issues, and that is since what we wish to try to do listed here is discuss people who’re performing content technique and content advertising and selecting which content platforms you need to possibly utilize.

And So I really invested a lot of period during the last couple weeks examining a couple of hundred search engine results, of numerous, many different types, attempting to determine the initial, varied kinds of research results by which content-marketing items rated or even the forms of items that will squeeze into this content advertising world position.

10 information platforms that seemed frequently atop Bing

And so I created this listing of 10. There are 11, but I-donot especially suggest all 11 of those, and what I’ve completed is, within the wording information of the Whiteboard Fri I’ve created a listing, you can observe below the movie. These that’s for each, I’ve a link that is clearly a great instance of a research question along with this which is why that URL rates, to help you obtain of what this kind of material appears like a feeling. Which means youare likely acquainted with many of these platforms:

Wrecord articles and people might have normal upgrades or be republished on the normal schedule e.g. Stay & Careis Advantages Of Yoga (rates for Yoga Advantages)

Brief-type evergreen information and posts e.g. Jim Collin’s Item on Large, Furry, Audacious Goals (rates for BHAG)

Extended-type posts e.g. Delay Purchase Why about the Fermi Paradox (rates for Fermi Paradox)

Picture and visible galleries, I came across lots of these position, specifically for items that lent themselves to it, for instance should you were to find men’s haircuts designs. e.g. Right Hairis 100 Awesome Short Hairstyles for Males/ (rates for menis hairstyles)

Comprehensive and info-wealthy listings of information e.g. Wareableis Greatest Exercise Trackers of 2016 (rates for Exercise Trackers)

Fun resources and information, got good quality types of these. e.g. Zoopla’s House Costs Device (rates for home costs)

Extensive class landers, which means this wouldbe like should you look for home styles, the way you may land on Houzzis site of numerous home designs and that is a really lander to obtain you into more information, therefore it is not officially a content advertising item alone, but it brings you into content items or might. e.g. HGTV’s Home Suggestions (rates for home remodeling suggestions)

Multi page instructions, such things as Mozis Novice’s Manual to SEO, but we’ve various other illustrations also. e.g. Bates Collegeis “Simple Information to Data” (rates for statistics manual)

Information or complicated info that’s visualized e.g. CNN’s Election Effects (rates for selection outcomes 2016)

Movie, facebook or stuck movie on the specific site, Whiteboard Fri itself becoming an instance of this. e.g. Whiteboard Fri itself (rates for Distinctive Information)

Subsequently a eleventh structure that I actually donot really suggest, despite the fact that I came across it within the search engine results frequently, and that’s the official study files which are frequently PDFs or Powerpoints or these types of issues. Basically because they truly are really difficult to parse, the main reason I actually donot suggest these platforms is. They truly are especially difficult to start on cellular devices. Theyare not so user friendly, & most of times the main reason they rank properly is merely because plenty of other activities reported them. Nevertheless when you observe content entrepreneurs purchase one of these simple areas and create a doc in another of these additional platforms that is greater and much more extensive and much more helpful and much more user friendly, they are doing a far greater work plus they often position better also.

Which structure in the event you utilize for the task?

Therefore the query is: Which structure for anyone who is utilizing for the task? This really is anything we’ve to complete at Moz. We ask ourselves this query whenever weare making information around web-marketing info and around SEO and info of sorts. So are there kind of three large people then several guidelines that I Have got for you personally aswell and that I request. But to start, I love to begin with:

What is the browseris objective? What’re they attempting to achieve?

Today broadly speaking, whether it’s navigation or deal, content-marketing-kinds of items aren’t the best complement for all those kinds of inquiries. But when it is educational, which is really a large swath, an enormous quantity of the queries that occur on the internet and undoubtedly most of the types that content-marketing was created to goal, since then it may change those individuals from, “Yes, I currently learn about your manufacturer and that Iam currently contemplating you and I considering you.”

There is a couple of various variations of those. Therefore such things as I am searching for:

A fast response to this query

A heavy assessment of various kinds of info or various items, various providers, various pathways that I might decide to reply the motion that I am going to consider.

An extensive summary

I possibly could be looking out anything, trying to find info solely out-of attention and interest. You realize whenever you drop a rabbit-hole around, “Hello, I do want to know-all the movies that Ryan was actually in.” Subsequently, “Delay one minute. What’s this 1? I’ve I’d like to proceed find out more about that, and never heard about that one.” Therefore interest and the attention.

Skilled and medical pursuits

Multiple-threaded pursuit.

Appear, there are many of others forms of inquiries that are educational. The important thing would be to think about which of those are all of the people executing this research question attempting to achieve, after which you certainly can do a much better work of thinning this checklist down. So you may be ready to cut right out six or five of those and just depart oneself having a several choices once you’ve clarified this query. The following one is:

What really seems within the search engine results site?

This two methods are meant by me. One, who currently turns up there, and what types of platforms are they employing? that may be educational. That may give some motivation to you, or it might generate one to desire to be not the same as the remainder of these. But additionally, I am requesting when it comes to the SERP functions that seem there. Are we referring to:

10 orange links and advertisements, that will be really, very traditional old-school, but unusual nowadays? Or are we speaking about research verticals showing within their pictures, which recommend perhaps I ought to be considering…

Pictures or visible galleries or possibly information or complicated info visualized, like perhaps an educational image or even more probably adata creation that is of top quality. While you may understand from previous Fridays I am not really a large infographic enthusiast myself.

Could it be information? by which event, perhaps I’d like a brief-type article or perhaps a long-type post.

Could it be movies? by which event, I possibly wish to movie.

If we observe plenty of such things as:

Immediate solutions, individuals likewise request, in depth outcomes, that may place us toward the difficulty of the info and just how much individuals are prepared to proceed search into this. Therefore individuals who likewise request claim that it may be a multi- a multi-page, exploration manual, or perhaps a extensive class lander might be a complement that is great there. If an immediate solution is seen by me, possible that a brief-type, evergreen post might do very well, or perhaps a article that is regularly-updated may do there.

Easily notice…

Website links, routes or nearby, or among Google or Googleis widgets, that basically reply the question for you personally, a visit a calculator or perhaps a look for trip costs, they reply that currently. A look for climate, they reply that currently. Odds are it may be fairly difficult to do issues within the content-marketing globe that’ll have success there. I would bias one to search for activities that are other.

Then your next query:

What is likely to resonate with two teams — their influencers as well as my market?

You have to request these concerns about both these teams. That may imply:

DEBevice kind and what your location is looking from. Therefore if someone is looking on a-mobile gadget plus they are on-the-move which kind of question comes with an intention that’s educational however itis really fast info, you may wish to contemplate a number of the smaller type material.

If you will find optimistic next actions and also you understand that this is the situation, you may wish to provide something similar to the multi page manual or the class lander or the fun device or material or that comprehensive checklist that provides somebody steps they may take immediately after they will have eaten that info.

In addition you wish to contemplate whether this can be an individual or this really is apt to be an individual who is:

Searching for fresh and fascinating platforms and they’d be intrigued and revel in discovering that, or whether or not theyare…

Searching for anything common and reliable, that’s not fresh, that does not make sure they are believe at-all, it simply answers their question and gets them completed.

Recommendations

I’d say…

Do not dismiss new platforms. Therefore if several of those aren’t issues you have regarded previously, do not dismiss them.

Notice that you should not simply make use of a structure since itis fresh. That’s a concept that is terrible. You need to use a structure since it acts many of these capabilities since it is effective for the market.

Study from whois currently position

I’dnot state that you need to simply duplicate someone elseis structure since itis accustomed and simple to do. ensure that accustomed and reliable is the greatest method as you are able to contend.

Take a look at these content platforms and discovering methods for getting a competitive benefit from their store. If all your rivals are simply performing blogs and brief-type and extended-type posts, you may be ready to get having a visible gallery, you may be ready to get by having an fun bit of information or perhaps a device, or you may be ready to get with complicated data visualized. That is clearly a factor that is potent.

Do make use of a multiple-keyword strategy within this evaluation. Then when Iam stating, “What’s the browseris intention,” Iam requesting you to think about all the words and phrases that you are wishing to position for with this specific bit of information, not only expression or a simple keyword expression. That’ll provide you with the easiest way to find the general objective of getting the best people and also the correct information structure for that search-queries.

To reading about a few of the platforms you have utilized, perhaps some that are not with this checklist okay everybody, look forward. We would undoubtedly like to observe them if you’ve excellent types of these you had prefer to reveal. And you ‘ll be seen by us again in a few days for another version of Friday. Be mindful.

Movie transcription by Speechpad.com

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