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solaireverie · 7 months

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Solsplaining Lestappen Gate 2023: Motivations

(aka i spent a full day psychoanalyzing rich white men who drive fast cars for a living)

I'll be the first to admit it: the recent rumors of a move to Red Bull for Charles / news involving him that is just as shocking, affectionately known as Lestappen Gate 2023, is likely delusion. (Or in the words of my beloved sister, "silly season didn't deliver this year, so we have to find something else to obsess over")

However, one common misconception is that one of the main reasons why a deal like this would fall through is the perception that Charles is, and will always remain, loyal to Ferrari, and would never move to another team. However, I actually think that it's very possible for Charles to want a transfer.

Charles is a professional athlete. You don't get to the level that he's at without being dedicated, hardworking, and incredibly competitive. (You can even see his ultra-competitive nature outside of the car — just take a look at the Ferrari driver challenges on Youtube.)

Every single Formula 1 driver (with the possible exception of the man, the myth, and the legend that is Yuki Tsunoda) dreams of winning the World Driver's Championship. Charles isn't going to stay with a team that promised him victory yet keeps failing to deliver (see Silverstone 2022, Spain 2022, Hungary 2022, etc), especially when he's already proven that he can challenge for the title when given a competitive car and decent strategy.

In fact, Charles has already told us the circumstances under which he would be open to leaving Ferrari: when he no longer believes in their "project" and he doesn't feel like he's maximizing performance. (He states clearly that he won't leave at the moment, but the most reasonable estimate for a move has always been 2025, after his current contract expires.)

Now, what could possibly qualify as not maximizing performance? Maybe Charles' past four years with Ferrari?

It obviously isn't all Ferrari's fault. Charles has made his fair share of mistakes and he's paid for them (ex: French GP 2022), but at the end of the day you have to admit that Ferrari seems to make an inordinate amount of mistakes for what should be one of the most prestigious teams in the sport.

Also, not directly related to Charles going to RBR, but it's been said that Ferrari only want to keep one of their current drivers for the future due to concerns about car development since Charles and Carlos have different driving styles. They would prefer to retain Charles, and that's why Carlos has been having difficulties with his contract, but at the end of the day I think that may be another concern Charles may have.

Red Bull have proved time and time again that they are currently on top in terms of car development, pace, strategy, etc. etc. It truly cannot be stressed too much the insanely dominant season they're currently having, and it seems probable that they'll continue this streak into at least the next two to three seasons.

(And even if they do fall off after the 2026 regulations are introduced, they've shown that they can remain competitive and fight to get back to the top. Red Bull have had two periods of domination in the past decade-ish and Ferrari haven't had a WDC since Kimi in 2007 or a WCC since the year after.)

If Charles wants to leave Ferrari to get a better shot at the WDC, Red Bull would be one of his best bets.

On the other side of the equation is Max Verstappen, who has consistently praised Charles' racecraft and has even said that he thinks that they would work well together (mind you, this article is from 2019, which was waaaaaay before their relationship reached the stage that it's at now, and Max was already floating the possibility.)

Red Bull is currently Max's team. He would definitely have a significant amount of input should they decide to change his teammate. Everything he's said so far about and around Charles, as well as the way he acts with him, points to Max not being opposed to the idea. (I'd even go so far as to say that it's possible that he wants to race alongside Charles... *cough* those comments about putting Charles in a better car *cough*)

Red Bull as a team would also benefit greatly from signing Charles. Firstly, he's a great PR asset. He's a media darling and at least one of the top three most popular drivers in F1. For a team that's basically a glorified marketing campaign, that's incredibly important.

Secondly, he and Max have similar driving styles. They're both aggressive and prefer borderline "undriveable" cars. Red Bull have the same issue as Ferrari currently in that their two drivers don't necessarily share the same style, which makes car development difficult. This results in the car suiting one driver (usually the faster) over the other, which then leads to the other driver performing abnormally substandard (see post-Miami 2023 Sergio and McLaren 2022 Daniel).

There are, of course, people who think that Checo might keep his seat or Daniel/Liam/Yuki will replace him.

Checo hasn't been able to achieve a 1-2 in the championship despite having had two dominant cars. This year, if he does get it, it would be by the skin of his teeth (fingers still crossed for Lewis!!!), which if you look at Max's gap with him in the points is simply ridiculous.

He's been decent for getting in the points, but a car like the RB19 shouldn't just be "in the points". Of course, it's not exactly suited for him, but less Q3 appearances than Oscar Piastri, a rookie who had a bad car for a third of the season? Sergio has always been a driver who excels in midfield teams and dragging decent cars higher than they should go, but I don't think he's built for championship contention in a dominant team like Red Bull.

I hate to say it, but realistically I don't see Daniel finding his way back into a RBR seat. He's still a good driver, but he's getting older and his stints with Renault and McLaren really hurt his reputation. The main reason that I think Red Bull would keep him now is for marketing but they've already achieved that by first making him their third driver and then sticking him in Alpha Tauri. Moment of silence for Nyck.

Let's take a look at Red Bull's history of choosing drivers: they've always leaned on the younger side. Sebastian Vettel, Max himself, Pierre Gasly, and Alex Albon were all brought in to replace an older driver. (Which again proves my point about Daniel: Why would RBR replace Checo with a driver older than him? This sentence pained me to write. RBR Daniel you will always be special in my heart!!!)

On the other hand, both Pierre and Alex have shown Red Bull that promoting a rookie too soon can hurt both of them. Yuki, perhaps, but he's not the most stable driver, and he doesn't have the raw talent that Max possesses to make up for the mistakes he makes occasionally. (Personally, I think he'll go to a midfield team eventually.)

For Red Bull, Charles would be a fantastic addition. He's already proven himself, is a publicity powerhouse in his own right, and can compete with Max. Just... no Brocedes ending, please.

Red Bull and Ferrari are incredibly similar in the sense that they are both, at the core of their existences, a mythos, albeit in vastly different ways. Red Bull Racing is a marketing scheme that chases success above all. Scuderia Ferrari is the years of history that looms behind the name.

They're both trying to sell you something, it's just that one is an energy drink and the other is the legend of the Prancing Horse.

Eventually, when Charles is no longer buying into Ferrari, he's going to go looking for another team to put his faith in, and plenty of signs point to it being Red Bull, who in my opinion has shown that they would be more than happy to accept him.

This still doesn't explain why Ferrari would also be posting Lestappen and it's entirely possible that it's all just a ✨ coincidence ✨, but in the meantime I will choose to be delusional!

If you've read to here, I salute you for reaching the end of my ramblings. Please drop by to let me know what you think! Have a nice day and stay hydrated <3

#solsplaining #f1 #formula 1 #f1 rumors #charles leclerc #max verstappen #lestappen #lestappen gate 2023 #red bull racing #scuderia ferrari #it's 2am i have no clue if this is coherent or not #disclaimer: i'm not a professional / motorsport person take everything i say with a grain of salt blah blah blah

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